Jeffery McElroy
01-19-2005, 10:47 AM
Throughout my life in the great state of Florida, I have come to realize that the peninsula recieves more hits from hurricanes and tropical weather than any other state in the country --and for good reason, as it borders the atlantic and the gulf. I have always lived on the water here, and fishing is somthing that my family and I cannot live without. Waterfront housing is very expensive and stubborn here. My waterfront community is still recovering from a direct hit from Charley, and houses are currentily selling for over 800,000 to 1 mill. It seems that nothing will get the people of this community (mostly retired folks) down. Now, if we have a repeat of last season within the next couple of years, then this upbeat attitude will surly change. I know that the last time a hurricane impacted our area was in 1960 with classic hurricane Donna. Knowing this, what are the odds that we will get hit (or near hit) again within the next five to ten years --given the apparent seasonal shift towards a surpluss in tropical activity.
Is there any way I can look at the probability of landfall in any given area within the state (say, Punta Gorda Fl) based off of impacts during that last 200 years (or whenever they began recording such events in detail)? While I realize that the most minute factor can drastically alter the course and/or intensity of a tropical cyclone, I really want to look at the situation from a more romantic perspective (using the past to relate to the present, and predict the future). Now, 20 cat 1's and 2's compare in no way to teh devistating effects of a single cat 5 or strong cat 4. That said, what is the most dangerous place to live in Florida when concerning tropical weather? Geography and population density should be considered.
Is there any way I can look at the probability of landfall in any given area within the state (say, Punta Gorda Fl) based off of impacts during that last 200 years (or whenever they began recording such events in detail)? While I realize that the most minute factor can drastically alter the course and/or intensity of a tropical cyclone, I really want to look at the situation from a more romantic perspective (using the past to relate to the present, and predict the future). Now, 20 cat 1's and 2's compare in no way to teh devistating effects of a single cat 5 or strong cat 4. That said, what is the most dangerous place to live in Florida when concerning tropical weather? Geography and population density should be considered.