Weekend Storm

[Jason234]

Looks like dry air inhibition will prevent any SIGNIFICANT precip north of the mason dixon line. Once the 850 mb low passes off the coast, flow will come off the coast, and moisten the atmosphere, to a point where snow showers could associate themselves with the deformation zone of the low. But the idea is light, and isolated-don't expect much. Wednesday's a different story the arctic boundary is retreating, and the 50 50 vortex by Newfoundland will have moved farther enough out to sea, that it directs storms more to the north. With the atmosphere saturated, and a secondary high building CAD aloft and at the surface, look for a low to bomb off the coast. Euro is trending to that solution and the nogaps is too, the GFS is in la la land cutting storms up east of the mountains. Looks like numbers will take another beating with all this understamation of the monster high that this snowcover and cold temps will build. Right now model solutions are giving me little hints to a storm of "biblical proportions", and is a coincidence that Henry Margusity and me said that at the same time. I do not copy other forecasters, just trend to the one's i like...and it looks like a major pattern amplification is in store for super bowl weekend. IT COULD SNOW IN JACKSONVILLE, for the superbowl that's how cold i think it could get. When you stick 540 heights into the GOM your bound to get some form of low..

[Jason234]

i might as well mail out the warnings now for wednesday right? 20-30 inches here, and 30-40 inches in the Boston area. Well looks much too early to say anything, but i just like to mess with people's mind. It really could happen, when you have so much water running into cold air, but keep in mind it's not that cold and ratio's would be rather low..10:1.

[Jason234]

my forecast is in on track, though do want to see how the Canadian longwave rotating around the polar vortex affects the ridge we have in place in the northeast. Recent run's of the models have been stronger with the ridge and weaker with the northern branch feature. This seems to be the consensus amongst models so will follow. Keep in mind if northern branch even interacts with the southern feature a light snow event will follow, will have to see how it pans out. Southern branch feature then bombs off into the Atlantic where it's interaction with the blocking seems to make it turn back south then back the original direction but won't affect the forecast nonetheless. Then it seems like a second storm will follow on it's tails but the model's only seem to be hinting at this feature...I think it will form. After that energy kicks out of the southwest eventually, it will become the big kahuna...Notice the Monday, Wednesday, weekend storm type pattern. This gives me evidence to believe there will be a storm Monday, Wednesday and over the weekend from this southern branch attack. The NE moderates to below normal to normal, but what really concerns me is how the models handle the ridging. The GFS handles the pattern the way i think it does (which is scary) but then again that's the only model that goes as far as where i look. The idea is to drop the polar vortex in the east...
Anyway new's forecasters have been doing a terrible job-that's a "New's Flash" for you. They rely too heavily on the GFS which lately is a disgrace...but I still like it for the long range, just make sure that's not the only model that's with you on a forecast! That's all for now, seem's like i have traveled off topic-alas that is me.

[LI Phil]

This current batch of storms is a forecaster's nightmare. Each model run (all of the models, that is), seems to have a different solution for Wednesday. Most models I looked at today don't show any of the precip alluded to by Keith in the post above. The problem, of course, is that with a split stream pattern in which we are now, the models have problems with the southern stream...which is why they aren't picking up on a possible big storm for the east coast on Wednesday. I also think the models are still a tad warm next week (although I'll be psyched if they're right). One thing is certain, though, the next few days are going to be very trying for Georgia, SC, NC & VA with a potentially deadly ice storm. The models did finally grasp this one. Whether newer runs will pick up on that energy and pulling it up north, rather than into the atlantic as they are currently doing remains to be seen. Right now, I think it's just as likely that Wednesday may be dry or see a light snow event. Until we're about 72 hours away from the event/non event in the East, I'm holding off on making any kind of a forecast.

[Jason234]

LI phil i said that if the track is farther north then a light snow event will follow. I was saying what the models have been trending to, never said the models said precip for here.

[LI Phil]

Have you seen the latest runs of the UKMET?

[Jason234]

no i haven't.

[LI Phil]

Craziest thing you'll ever see...takes the storm off the east coast (the ice/snow/rain event in the southern states) like a good little boy, then the thing just bombs out and heads WEST, hitting New England! I forget which other model hints at this too, might have been the CMC. Just nutty...

[Jason234]

you know that's the oddest thing, that's what the GFS did earlier this week. Hmmmm...