Mobile, AL

[ROLLTIDE]

Long Term...(wednesday Through Monday). On Wed High Pressure
Centered Over Northern Sections Of Al And Ms And The Tn River Valley
Will Weaken And Shift East To The Carolina Coast Through 06z Thu As
Weak Ridging Aloft Moves East Of The Ms River Valley. From Thu
Through Sat Sfc Ridge Holds Along The Carolina Coast Building
Slightly To The South. With This An Increasing Onshore Flow...mostly
Se...develops Thu And Persists Through Early Mon...thus Giving Way
To Increasing Low Level Moisture And Warmer Temps Late Thu Through
Sun. Main Concern With This Pattern Will Be The Return Of Advection
Fog Over Coastal Sections Of Al And Nwfl Beginning Late Fri Night And
Continuing Through Much Of The Weekend. By Late Sat Into Sun The
First Of A Series Of Short Wave Trofs Begins To Affect The Lower Ms
River Valley Tracking Mainly To The Ne Over Central Ms Into Tn
Through Late Sun. With This Rain Chances Increase Over The Weekend
With The Better Pops Mostly Over Northern And Western Sections Of
The Cwfa Both Sat And Sun. Latest Gfs And Canadian Show A Stalled
Frontal Boundary To The West Of The Cwfa Over The Weekend In
Response To Strong Ridge Still Holding To The East And A Slowly
Moving Upper Trof Over The Western And Central Conus. Mid To Upper
Level Proggs From The Gfs Suggest A Persistent Shear Zone Also To
The West Of The Cwfa Possibly Limiting The Mid To Upper Forcing With
This Pattern Late Sat Through Early Mon. By Mon Broad Upper Trof
Axis Remains Well To The West Gradually Lifting Out To North Over
The Central Conus Early Next Week. With This Heavier Precip Looks To
Remain West Of The Cwfa Through Mon. Will Stay Close To The Current
Mex Mos For Temps Pops Through The Pd. /32

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
415 Am Cst Tue Jan 16 2007

.short Term...[today And Tonight]...strong Cold Front Was Moving
East Out Of The Area With Cold Air Advection Surging Into The
Forecast Area. A Chilly Day Is Forecast With Little Diurnal
Variation Expected As Strong Canadian High Pressure Expands Eastward
Across The Mid Mississippi River Valley. Aloft...forecasters Note A
West To Southwest Flow And Rather Lengthy Subtropical Connection...
Originating Out Of The Pacific...which Should Hang Atop Area On
Through Tonight. This Supports Chilly...post Frontal Light Rains
Today. Despite Clouds...strength Of Cold Air Advection Processes
Allow 2nd Period Mins To Dip Down To Around The Freezing Mark Over
The Interior Sections Tonight. The Problem Comes With Precipitation.
The Short Range Guidance Continues With A Small Chance Of
Precipitation...albeit Forecasters Consider This Being Light
Tonight. Wouldn`t Be Surprised To Hear Of A Mention Of Sleet Here
And There Over The Northern Zones Late Tonight. Forecast Soundings
Look To Be Just Shy Of Favorable For Wintry Precipitation Tonight.
With The Low Confidence...low Coverage And Light-ness Of
Precipitation...forecasters Refrain From Mentioning The Wintry Stuff
In Zones. Carrying Over From Today...will Make Mention Of A Small
Chance Of Chilly Light Rain In The Evening...mainly Before Midnight.
Forecasters Will Continue To Monitor New Data For Any Possible
Changes. /10


.long Term...(wednesday Through Monday)surface High Pressure Moving
East Across The Ohio Valley Wednesday Will Be Over New England By
Thursday. Generally This Would Mean "fair" Weather...but With A
Strong Feed Of Mid And Upper Level Moisture Flowing Across The Area
From The Southwest...we Will See A Continuation Of Considerable
Cloudiness And Some Light Rain Into Wednesday As Minor Disturbances
In The Upper Flow Move Across The Forecast Area But Only Light
Amounts Of Precipitation Expected And It Should Be All Liquid. A Few
More Chance For Light Rain...possibly Thursday Afternoon And Friday
Into Saturday Morning As Moisture Begins To Flow Back North Over A
Dissipating Front Across The Central Gulf Of Mexico. Latest Hpc
Manual Surface Prog Has Surface Low West Of Area With Warm Front
Southeast Across Forecast Area On Sunday Morning. Have Placed
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In For Sunday. /11
&&

.marine...strong Canadian Surface Ridge Of High Pressure Over The
Central Plains Expands Eastward Into The Mid Mississippi River
Valley Through The Middle Of The Week. A Strong Northerly Component
To The Wind Is Forecast Early On With Building Seas. Small Craft
Advisories Continue Today And Wednesday. Winds And Seas Come Down
Thursday Before Next Strong High Pressure Ridge Becomes Reinforced
Into The Area Late Friday...causing Winds To Once Again Increase And
Seas To Build Into The Early Weekend. /10

[Alex]

http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/116868366724390.xml&coll=3

2006 turned out to be Mobile's 16th-driest year
Saturday, January 13, 2007
By KIM LANIER
Staff Reporter

Southwest Alabama was spared from tropical storms and hurricanes last year. Still, the local weather pattern wasn't exactly ho-hum, the data show.

Mobile choked through one of its driest years on record as moderate drought conditions gripped the state for much of the year before the dry pattern reversed itself.

The dry spell came in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. After that, Mobile saw 11 straight months of below-normal rainfall, according to Jack Cullen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mobile.


With a total of 49.35 inches of rain, last year ranked as Mobile's 16th-driest on record, according to Cullen.

Mobile suffered through the driest March on record, with just 0.24 of an inch of rain falling. That was followed by a dry April and the 13th-driest May on record. The result was Mobile's third-driest spring, according to Cullen.

"That hurt the farmers to have March and May be dry," according to Aaron "Bill" Williams, director of the Coastal Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama.

Last year, high pressure dominated the region, keeping the jet stream, along with storms tracking along the river of fast-moving air, well to the north. Afternoon thunderstorms were few and far between during the summer. And the development of El Nino conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean inhibited tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Basin, said Williams, a meteorology professor at USA.

Last year probably would have been the driest of all until the weather pattern switched in August, Cullen said. "We completely changed from dry to wet."

August was the first month of last year to see a rainfall surplus, with 7.88 inches falling--1.68 inches above normal.

While September and December were below normal in terms of rainfall (December only slightly so), October (normally Mobile's driest month) and November chimed in on the plus side.

Storms on Oct. 17 brought high winds and heavy rains and produced flooding on parts of the Causeway, Williams said.

One of the most unusual things about last year was the month of November, Williams said. It rained only a total of five days that month, and just two of those five days saw significant precipitation. Still, more than 9.10 inches fell in that limited time and November wound up 3.69 inches above normal on rain, local data show.

"That's just a freak thing, because when you look at the (overall) conditions, it was a dry month," Williams said of November. "But two storm systems dumped a lot of rain."

One storm system Nov. 15 also spawned two tornadoes in Baldwin County and one in Washington County. The only other tornado to affect southwest Alabama occurred in Conecuh County in January 2006, according to Cullen.

El Nino, which affected Atlantic tropical systems during hurricane season, resulted in a more active southern branch of the jet stream bringing a series of storm systems to the Southeast during the latter part of the year. Still, the late-year wetness wasn't enough to erase the effects of the drought, forecasters said.

In the temperature department, Mobile's average annual temperature was 68 degrees, not too far above the norm of 66.8 degrees, Cullen said.

January 2006 was unusually warm. With an average temperature of 56 degrees, that was 5.9 degrees above normal. The highest reading that month was 80 degrees Jan. 2. Just days later, the low hit 23 degrees Jan. 7, which wound up being the lowest reading of last year, the data show.

The highest reading of the year was 97 degrees June 22 and 23.

By comparison, 2006 tied with two other years and was Huntsville's sixth-warmest year in the past 100 years and the 12th-driest in the last 113 years with 42.59 inches, according to weather officials in Huntsville.

In central Alabama, 2006 brought 31 tornadoes, which was above the norm of 17 annually, but well below the record of 55 in 2005, weather officials in Birmingham noted in a report issued Thursday.

For the continental United States, 2006 was the warmest on record, according to scientists from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Preliminary data showed the annual average temperature for the nation last year was 55 degrees, which was 2.2 degrees above the 20th-century mean and 0.07 of a degree higher than 1998, the previous record holder, said the NCDC in a report issued Tuesday.

After a cold start in December, persistent springlike temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country made it the fourth-warmest December on record in the nation, according to the NCDC.

[ROLLTIDE]

Alz051>055-061-062-msz067-075-076-078-079-171015-
Baldwin Inland-choctaw-clarke-george-greene-mobile Inland-monroe-
Perry-stone-washington-wayne-wilcox-
1023 Pm Cst Tue Jan 16 2007

...light Rain With Brief Periods Of Light Sleet Possible Tonight...

A Strong Arctic Airmass Continues Across Southeast Mississippi And
Southwest Alabama This Evening. At 1000 Pm...temperatures Across The
Region Were Generally In The Low To Mid 30s...and Will Drop To Around
30 Degrees Along And North Of A Richton...chatom...grove Hill...
Camden Line And Into The Lower 30s Just To The South Of This Line.

Patchy Light Rain And Drizzle Will Continue Across The Region Through
Most The Overnight Hours...gradually Diminishing Toward Daybreak.
Periodic Patches Of Very Light Sleet Will Also Be Noted At Times...
But No Accumulation Is Expected. As Temperatures Drop...any Left
Over Standing Water May Freeze...especially On Exposed Elevated
Surfaces Such As Bridges And Overpasses.

While Significant Travel Problems Are Not Anticipated Through
Tonight...motorists Should Slow Down And Be On The Lookout For
Isolated Slick Patches On Bridges And Overpasses Late Tonight And
Early Wednesday Morning.

[Christina514]

Watch out for that black ice... you won't see it but it will get cha!!

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 181104AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL504 AM CST THU JAN 18 2007.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCURACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVEWEST TO EAST IN ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW LEVEL MODELSOUNDINGS SHOWING DEWPOINTS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE RISEN ABOVE THEFREEZING MARK...SO VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SLEET OCCURRING THISMORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITHTOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONLY A TRACE TO ABOUT FIVEHUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE BULK OF THIS MORNING`S PRECIPITATION WILLMOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOLOWERED OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT FOR THEAFTERNOON. MORE LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT (AROUND 20 PERCENT)AS YET ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WENTSLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY`S HIGHS AGAIN...DUE TO THETHICK CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S ALONG THECOAST...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDYSKIES. /22.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDSEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAIN BY THE WEEK`S END...BRINGINGANOTHER FRONT AND A REINFORCEMENT OF THE UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIMETEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. THIS NEXT AIRMASSWILL BE SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE AS THE ONE THAT MOVED IN ONTUESDAY...THAT BEING A SHALLOW COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHLEVEL WESTERLIES ABOVE 4 KFT. WITH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT...ALSOANTICIPATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS MOVING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.MEANWHILE...ELONGATED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL RETURN SLOWLYNORTHWARD AS THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MOVES EAST THROUGH THEWEEKEND. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY AS UPPERLEVEL HEIGHTS RISE WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THEAMPLIFICATION IN HEIGHTS IS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...FORECAST TO GETCAUGHT UP IN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BAJA AND KICKNORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE IN THEWEEKEND. AS HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE OLD GULFFRONT...MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FORMATIONOF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXASCOAST OR INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY. TRANSPORT FLOW TAKESTHE LOW EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WE MAYBRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SOME THUNDER TOMIX IN WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.THUNDER COULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED ALONG AND COASTAL COUNTIES ANDINTO THE MARINE AREA.THE FRONTAL WAVE/LOW LIFTS OUT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND CAUSES SURFACEFRONT TO HEAD BACK DOWN INTO THE GULF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.THUS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES QUICKLY BACK DOWN TO UNSEASONABLE NUMBERSTHROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF PERSISTSOVER THE NATIONS HEARTLAND NEXT WEEK...LOOKING TO BRING A RETURN TOCONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW. THAT BEINGCONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT STRATI-FORM RAINSMONDAY AND TUESDAY. /10

[ROLLTIDE]

Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy, with a high near 56. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 46. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
400 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2007

Alz051>064-flz001>006-gmz630-650-655-msz067-075-076-078-079-221230-
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Mobile Bay-baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-
Conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-
George-greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-stone-
Washington-wayne-wilcox-
400 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2007

.now...

Areas Of Light To Moderate Rainfall Will Continue To Move
Northeastward Across Southeast Mississippi...southwest Alabama And
The Northwest Florida Panhandle Through Daybreak. Additional
Rainfall Amounts Are Expected To Average One Tenth To One Quarter Of
An Inch Through 8 Am...with Some Locations Receiving An Additional
Half Inch Of Rain Through 8 Am. In Addition To The Rainfall...light
Patchy Fog Can Be Expected In Some Locations.

Motorists Should Use Caution When Traveling Around The Area As
Roadways Will Be Slick Due To The Rain And Visibilities Will Be
Reduced By Rain And Light Fog.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Long Term (friday Through Next Thursday)...midlevel Ridging In
Between The Progressive Eastern States Trough And The Cutoff Low
Over The Southwestern U.s Will Maintain A Dry/subsident Synoptic
Scale Pattern Over Our Area Friday...resulting In Partly Cloudy
Skies And Temps Warming Into The Upper 50s For Most Locations. We
Dont See Much In The Way Of Significant Differences In The 00z
Global Model Suites This Morning...with The Gfs/gem/ecmwf All
Lifting The Cutoff Low Out To The Northeast On Saturday And
Dampening It Out To An Open Wave Over The Southern Plains. The
Advancing Shortwave Trough Extending Down To Southern Texas Helps
Gen Up A Surface Low Over The Northern Gulfmex Saturday Afternoon.
The Models Are In Fair Agreement Keeping The Surface Low Over The
Northern Gulf...and Pass It Just South Of The Central Gulf Coast
Through Sunday Morning. Isentropic Lift In The Warm Conveyor Belt
Process Will Result In Stratiform Layer Lift Rains Advancing From
The West/southwest Saturday Afternoon...becoming More Widespread
Across The Area Saturday Afternoon And Evening...then Diminishing
Sunday Morning As The Low Passes To The East And The Shortwave
Trough Passes Across The Area. Model Soundings Show The Airmass
North Of The Low And Across Our Area Will Be Too Warm To Support Any
Frozen Type Precip Saturday Night...with The Moisture Drying Out
Along And Behind The Upper System For Sunday As The Dry/deeper
Layered Cold Air Works In From The Northwest. The Airmass In The
Wake Of The Weekend System Looks To Remain Dry But Fairly Cold
Sunday Through Next Wednesday...with The 1000-850 Mb Thicknesses Not
Projected To Go Above 1290 Dam Across Our Whole Area. Mexmos Has
Mid 20s In For Low Temps Across Our Inland Zones During That Time
Frame With Sub-freezing Low Temps All The Way To The Coast. Some Of
The Coop Mos Guidance Is Showing Upper Teens For Some Of The
Normally Colder Spots Early Next Week. Low Level Ridge Transitions
East Of Our Area Thursday With Warm Advection Setting Up. That Sets
The Stage For The Next System Projected To Move In From The West
Late Thursday Into Friday...when We Introduce The Next Chance Of
Rain. /05

[ROLLTIDE]

...freezing Temperatures Expected Across The Area Sunday And Monday Nights...

A Cold Airmass Will Settle Over The Area Sunday...behind Two Fronts
Expected To Cross The Area Saturday Night And Sunday. Temperatures
Overnight Sunday And Monday Nights Will Fall Below Freezing Shortly
After Sunset...reaching The Lower 20s Around Sunrise...with Some
Locals North Of Highway 84 Dipping Into The Teens. Freezing
Temperatures Are Expected To Fall Below Freezing Over Most Of The
Area North Of The Immediate Coast Both Sunday And Monday Nights. This
Airmass Is Expected To Last Over The Area Into Tuesday...when An
Upper System Moves South Of The Area...bringing Warmer Temperatures
To The Area.

With Temperatures Expected To Drop Into The Mid 20s Or Lower...steps
Should Be Taken To Protect Plants...pets And Pipes From The Very Cold
Temperatures.

[ROLLTIDE]

hard Freeze Watch In Effect No. Of Interstate 10 From Midnight Sunday
Night Through Mon Morning.

.a Cold Front Will Move Across The Area Sun Afternoon. Behind The
Front.high Pressure With Its Origins In The Canadian Arctic Will
Move Across The Gulf Coast Sun Night. The Associated Light Winds
And Clearing Skies Will Allow Temps To Drop Rapidly After Sunset
On Sun Evening. Temps Will Likely Drop Below Freezing No. Of
Interstate 10 By 9 Or 10 Pm Sun Night.then Are Expected To Drop
Near 26 Degrees Or Below For Areas No. Of The Interstate Around
Midnight & Remain There For Five Or More Hrs Through Mon
Morning. Interior Areas Of Se Ms.southwest Al
And Nw Fl Could Potentially See Temps Fall Into
The Upper Teens & Low 20s. Stay Tuned For Later Statements &
Possible Warnings On This Potential Hard Freeze Situation.

[Christina514]

How much rain you have so far James??

[ROLLTIDE]

.37

[ROLLTIDE]

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS & SW AL & THE NW FL PANHANDLE EXCEPT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION & BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING THEN DROP TO THE LWR TWENTIES OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A HARD FREEZE.
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

MSZ078-079-281115-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FZ.A.0001.070129T0600Z-070129T1300Z/
STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.WIGGINS.LUCEDALE
413 AM CST SUN JAN 28 2007

[ROLLTIDE]

But Rain Chances Begin To
Return To Fcst By Late Tuesday Into Tuesday Night As Low Pressure
Develops Over Western Gulf Of Mexico And An Overrunning Pattern
Develops Over Our Area. Temperature Profiles Still Look Capable Of
Supporting A Cold Rain (possibly Wintry Mix) Late Tuesday
Night...but Latest Data Continues To Indicate That Ridging Moving
Into The Area Will Push Available Moisture To The South Of Our Fcst
Area Out Over The Gulf...and As A Result We Are Not Calling For Any
Frozen Pcpn At This Time. /12

[ROLLTIDE]

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 301000AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL400 AM CST TUE JAN 30 2007.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER TX/N-RNMEX WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH VIRGA SHOWING ON RADAR OVERAREAS TO OUR WEST. GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE PRECIP A BIT FARTHERSOUTH FROM YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEINGMAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS ALSO CUTS BACK THE CHANCESFOR ANY WINTER WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FASIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS PLACING BEST CHANCE FORRAIN BEING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AGAIN...THE MOSTSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ENDS BEFORE THE TEMPS GET NEAR FREEZING. AMLEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF ANY WINTER PRECIP AS A RESULT. /16

[ROLLTIDE]

Boundary Over The Northern Gulf. 31/12z Pops
Are Around 70 And 80 Percent Than Current 30 And 40 Percent Over The
Southern Third. Will Let Mid Shift Make Any Adjustment Needed As It
Should Be A Mostly Light Overrunning Rain And May In Fact Wind Up
South Of The Forecast Area. Overnight Lows Near Or Below Freezing
From Interstate 10 North On Sunday And Monday Mornings And Likely
Tuesday And Wednesday After Peeking At The New Guidance.

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
433 Am Cst Thu Feb 1 2007

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-011230-
Baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-
Covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-george-
Greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-stone-
Washington-wayne-wilcox-
433 Am Cst Thu Feb 1 2007

.now...
Areas Of Light To Moderate Rain...with A Few Embedded Isolated
Thunderstorms...will Continue To Move East Across The Inland
Areas Of Southeast Mississippi...southwest Alabama And The Western
Florida Panhandle Through Sunrise This Morning. Rainfall Amounts
Will Average Around One Tenth Of An Inch Through 600 Am For Most
Areas...with A Few Locations Picking Up Around One Quarer Of
An Inch Of Additional Rainfall. The Isolated Thunderstorms Will
Produce Very Brief And Localzed Rainfall Amounts Up To Around Three
Quarters Of An Inch.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

G Term...(sunday Through Friday). Broad Mid To Upper Trough Overthe Eastern Conus Will Continue To Dig Southward Over The Northcentral Gulf Region. As A Result Sfc Ridge Over Texas Drifts Eastand Becomes Centered Over Much Of The Cwfa By Late Sun Afternoon.further South A Broad Shear Zone Is Depicted With A Broad Band Ofupper Level Moisture Stretching Eastward Over The Central And Lowergulf. By 12z Mon Broad Upper Trof Begins To Shift Eastward Givingway To More Canadian Air In The Lower Levels Of The Atmospherediving Southward Over Much Of The Lower Eastern Conus Including Thenorthern Gulf By Late Mon Through Tue. With This A Few Extra Cloudswere Noted Across The Region Mostly During The Day On Mon Leading Meto Go Slightly Lower Than The Current Mex Guidance For Afternoonhighs On Mon. By Tue Next Canadian High Builds South Over The Tnriver Valley Giving Way To Clear Skies And Cool Temps Through Earlywed. By Midweek Sfc Ridge Shifts Eastward Quickly In Response To Abetter Zonal Flow Aloft Gradually Giving Way To A Light Onshore Flowacross The Central Gulf States Late Wed Through Midday Thu. By Earlythu A Weak Shortwave Trof Moves Eastward Across The Deep South Alsoresulting In Increasing Clouds And A Slight Chance Of Showersforming Near A Stalled Frontal Boundary Across The Region Thuthrough Fri. Will Continue To Use The Current 00z Mex Guidance Fortemps For The Later Pds. /32&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
320 Am Cst Wed Feb 7 2007

.short Term...(today And Tonight)a Weak Cold Front Along The
Tennessee/alabama Border At Midnight Will Slip Slowly South And Be
Near The Northern Zones At 12z Thursday And Take The Remainder Of
The Day And Early Evening To Arrive At The Coast. Guidance Is
Showing Some Increased Humidity In The 1000 To 850 Millibar Layer
Easing South Over The Northern Third This Afternoon...but Air Mass
Is Dry Above 850...hence No Precipitation Expected Through 6 Am
Thursday. Upper 60s Should Rule This Afternoon With A Few Places
Cracking 70 For Todays High...unless The Cloud Cover Turns Out To Be
More Than Anticipated. Will Also Add Some Patchy Fog To The Coastal
Counties And Possibly Just Inland For Late Tonight With The Light
Winds And Mostly Clear Skies Over The Coastal Strip Tonight. /11

.long Term...(thursday Through Next Wednesday)...a Cold Front Will
Move Through The Area On Thursday Bringing Mainly An Increase In Cloud
Cover From North To South. Temps Should Again Reach The Mid To Upper
60s Across Southern Areas While Northern Areas Remain In The 50s Due
To Cloud Cover. Mav Guidance Numbers Were Bumped Up A Degree Or Two
Across Northern Areas To Better Match Surrounding Offices. Some Weak
Overrunning Along The Boundary May Just Be Enough To Produce Some
Showers Thur And Fri. However...moisture And Forcing Remain Quite
Weak W/ This System And Rain Chances Are Just In The Slight Chance
(20 Percent) Range. Temps Will Drop Back To Below Normal For Friday
As Cold Advection And Clouds Combine To Hold Down Temps. Weak High
Pressure Controls The Weather Saturday Before Things Begin To
Rapidly Change For Late In The Weekend And Early Next Week. Models
Differences Are Great During This Time Frame Leading To A Rather Low
Confidence Forecast. Although...some Agreement Exists Between The
07.00z Gfs And Ecmwf. This Also Leads To Large Temperature And Pop
Spreads In The Ensembles As Std Deviations Are 5 Or More During The
Extended. For Now...first Wave Moves Toward The Area Late Sunday
Into Monday Bringing Sct Showers To The Area. A More Significant
Area Of Low Pressure Develops Late Monday Across The Southern Plains
And Moves Across The Southeastern States On Tuesday Bringing A
Better Chance Of Rain And Possibly A Few Thunderstorms Depending On
How Unstable The Atmosphere Becomes. Have Included Isolated
Thunderstorms For Tuesday Per Spc Convective Outlook. /13

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
448 Am Cst Fri Feb 9 2007

.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows A Weak
Frontal Stretching From West To East Across The Southern Half Of The
Cwfa. Aloft Latest Wv/ir Loops Show A Weak Shortwave Trof Moving
Into Western La Progged To Move East Of The Cwfa Late This Afternoon
And Early Tonight. A Few Showers Or Light Rain Will Be Possible
Along And Just Behind Front Generally From Weak Layer Lift And Mid
Level Forcing As The Short Wave Approaches From The West. Current
Radar Loops Show A Few Light Showers Tracking Eastward Across Inland
Sections Of The Cwfa Progged To Become A Little Better Developed
Later Today And Early Tonight. Clouds Will Slowly Erode From North
To South In The Wake Of The Front Generally After Midnight Tonight.
Will Lean Towards The Cooler Mavmos For Temps Through Tonight. /32

&&

.long Term (saturday Through Thursday)...a Large Surface High Builds
From The Plains Into The Eastern States Through Saturday Night.
Temperatures Remain Below Seasonable Levels Through Sunday Then A
Mild Period Ensues As A System Advances From The Plains. The
Surface High Meanwhile Shifts Into The Western Atlantic Allowing For
A Return Flow Over The Forecast Area. The Area Remains In A Warm
Sector Regime As A Surface Low Advances Across Eastern Texas And The
Lower Mississippi River Valley. The Low Moves Across Central
Mississippi And Central Alabama Late Monday Night Through Tuesday
Morning. Mild Instability Will Support The Mention Of Thunderstorms
With The Passage Of The System But The Risk Of Severe Storms Has
Decreased With The Latest Model Data. Will Let The Next Shift
Continue To Monitor For More Favorable Convective Parameters.
Temperatures Have Trended Cooler With This Latest Run For The Period
Tuesday Through Wednesday Night. While There Are Some Minor Timing
Differences Amongst The Gfs...gem And Ecmwf With The Passage Of The
Surface Low Across The Southeast States...the Consensus Is For An
Enhanced Cool Northerly Flow. The Gfs Ensemble Guidance Shows That
The Cooler Operational Mex Guidance Is Just About Right On The
Ensemble Guidance Mean...so Will Accept The Cooler Solution With
This Issuance. Another Surface High Builds Back Into The Region
Through Thursday With Temperatures Remaining Below Seasonable
Levels. A Series Of Shortwaves In The Nearly Zonal 500 Mb Pattern
Over The Southern States Leads To The Development Of Several Subtle
Surface Waves That Zip Along A Frontal Boundary Stalled Over The
North Central Gulf. While This Will Favor Precipitation Mainly
South Of The Area...will Keep Small Pops In For The Southern Portion
Of The Forecast Area Wednesday Night And Thursday. /29

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Long Term...(sunday Through Friday). By Early Sun Sfc High Pres
Centered Over The Southern Appalachians Extending Southward To The
Adjacent Gulf Waters Of Nwfl And South Al Will Shift East Of The
Atlantic Seaboard By 12z Mon. As A Result A Weak Southern Flow
Giving Way To Increasing Low Level Moisture Will Develop Late Sun
Afternoon And Continue Through Early Tues As Next Long Wave Trof And
Developing Sfc Low Approach The Central Gulf States From The West.
Latest Proggs Both The Canadian And Gfs Place The Track Of The Low
Moving Over Central And Northern Sections Of The Al And Ms Beginning
Late Mon Night And Continuing Through Tues Midday Then Shifting
Eastward Over Much Of Central And Southern Ga. Aloft Mid To Upper
Long Wave Trof Diggs Slightly Over The Lower And Central Ms River
Valleys On Mon Giving Way To Increased Mid Level Forcing Or Lift
South And East Of The Sfc Low While Over Ms And Al Mon Night And
Tues. Latest Model Soundings Across The Cwfa Basically The Gfs Show
Some Dry Air In The Middle Layers Of The Atmosphere Late Mon And Mon
Evening With The Atmosphere Becoming Very Moist Or Saturated By
Early Tues Morning. Model Soundings Also Suggest Wetbulb Zero Values
Will Remain Below 10 Kft Mon Through Tues Increasing The Threat Of
Hail With Any Convection East And South Of The Low. Vertical Shear
Or Helicity Values Also Increase Mon Night Into Tues Morning As A
Warm Front Continues To Move Northward Generally East Of The Low. At
The Moment The Main Limiting Factor In The Model Data For Severe Wx
Looks To Be Instability With Minimum Sfc Capes Well Below 1000 J/kg2
Through The Pd. Depending On The Position Of The Warm Front By Late
Mon Capes Values Are Subject To Change. Day 3 Proggs From Spc
Suggest A Slight Risk For Severe Thunderstorms For Generally The
Afternoon Hours On Mon. By 12z Wed Main Trof Axis Moves East Of The
Region With Sfc High Pres Building Over The Central Plains. Aloft A
Significant Short Wave Trof Was Also Noted Moving Eastward Over The
Tn River Valley And Se States On Thu. With Limited Moisture Return
Rain Chances Will Likely Be Low With This Next System. Will Use The
Current 00z Mex Guidance For Temps Through The Period. /32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

An Upper
Level Disturbance Passes Quickly Across Wednesday Night...supporting
Persistent Cloud Cover. Not Overly Confident In Precipitation As
Deepest Layer Moisture Is Forecast To Be Suppressed Deep Into The
Gulf. Next High Level Disturbance Brings A Reinforcing Surge Of
Cooler Air Into The Weekend. High Pressure Then Builds Over Through
Monday. /10

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
955 Pm Cst Mon Feb 12 2007

.update...current Fcst Appears To Be On Track. Still Looking For
Shra/tsra Activity To Increase Across Western Portions Of Fcst Area
After Midnight...especially Over The Mississippi Zones By Around 400
Am...spreading East Into Remainder Of The Fcst Area By Around
Daybreak. Temps Also Look Generally On Track...with Temps
Primarily Dropping Into The Low To Mid 50s Across Most Of The Area
Tonight As Wind Flow Becomes More Southeasterly In Advance Of The
Approaching Cold Front. So...will Not Update Zones As No Significant
Adjustments Are Needed For The Overnight Hours. As Far As The Marine
Fcst...had To Adjust Winds Up To The 10 To 15 Knot Range And Raise
Sea Heights Slightly For Tonight Based On Current Buoy/marine
Data...otherwise No Changes.

12/shepherd

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 52. Wind chill values between 25 and 30 early. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL450 AM CST THU FEB 15 2007ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-152200-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-450 AM CST THU FEB 15 2007...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SETTLING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTHTONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAYCONTINUES TO FUNNEL VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERNHALF OF THE COUNTRY. ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S FOR MANYINLAND LOCATIONS. BY TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROPINTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLYFALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURESAFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO TOBUTLER AND CAMDEN. MIDDLE 20S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER 20S EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF BEACHES.THE UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN ANINCREASED DEMAND FOR AREA SHELTERS AND RELIEF AGENCIES. THE COLDTEMPERATURES WILL ALSO POSE A DANGER TO OUTDOOR PETS...TENDERPLANTS...AND SOME WATER PIPES EXPOSED DIRECTLY TO THE COLD OUTDOORAIR.TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME TODAY TO PROTECT ANY EXPOSED OUTDOOR WATERPIPES. MAKE ACCOMODATIONS FOR OUTDOOR PETS THAT WILL NEED TOBE BROUGHT INSIDE...AND TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT ANY TENDER OUTDOORPLANTS.ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPSFORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES...TO THE MIDDLE 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 20SAT THE GULF BEACHES.STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE ON THE UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTING THECENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

[ROLLTIDE]

Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
450 Am Cst Mon Feb 19 2007

.short Term [today And Tonight]...an End To The Cool Spell Ensues
Today As The Surface Ridge Over Eastern Alabama And The Central
Florida Panhandle Shifts Eastward Allowing For A Light Southerly
Flow. Mostly Clear Skies Allow For Temperatures To Reach To Around
Sixty Across The Area Today. The Moistening Southerly Flow Continues
Through Tonight With Precipitable Water Values Rising To 1.1 Inches
Or About 150 Percent Of Normal By 12z Tuesday. An Overrunning 850 Mb
Flow And Several Shortwaves Ejecting From A Southwestern States
System Will Bring Mid And Upper Level Clouds Into The Area Overnight.
These Clouds And The Deep Layer Moisture Increase Will Interfere With
Radiational Cooling While The Light Southerly Flow Continues...resulting
In Temperatures That Are Fairly Mild In Comparison With The Last Few
Nights. With Surface Moisture Recovering...patchy Fog Is Possible
Overnight As Well. /29

.long Term [tuesday Through Sunday]...upper Level Storm System Ejects
Eastward Out Of The Four Corners Of The Southwest Tuesday Afternoon. The
System De-amplifies As It Moves Across The Southern States Through
The Middle Of The Week. Although Can`t Totally Discount A
Thunderstorm Here And There...limited Instability Dictates The
Prevailing Weather In Gridded And Text Forecasts Early On To Be
Showers. As The Weakening Mid Level Disturbance Moves East By
Wednesday...a Frontal Passage Causes Lows Wednesday Night To Lower
Briefly. High Pressure Quickly Builds East Of The Area Late In The
Week Allowing Temperatures To Rebound To Unseasonably Warm Levels.
The Next Weather Maker Looks To Be Moving Through The Nation`s
Heartland By The Weekend With A Strong Low Pressure System Moving
Northeast Out Of The Central Plains. As This Occurs...a Trailing Cold
Front Taps A Feed Of Gulf Moisture Which Brings A Chance Of
Thunderstorms To The Area. /10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
704 Am Cst Wed Feb 21 2007

Alz051>064-flz001>005-gmz630-650-msz067-075-076-078-079-211500-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Mobile Bay-baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-
Conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-
George-greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Inland-
Perry-santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-stone-washington-wayne-
Wilcox-
704 Am Cst Wed Feb 21 2007

.now...
Through 9 Am...numerous Patches Of Light Rain Will Continue To
Advance Into Southeast Mississippi...southwest Alabama And The
Northwest Florida Panhandle And Adjacent Coastal Waters. Rainfall
Amounts Will Be Light And Typically Less Than A Tenth Of An Inch.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 43. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a southeast wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Low around 58. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[ROLLTIDE]

.the Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Cancelled The Wind
Advisory That Was In Effect Until 600 Am This Morning.

.the Strong Winds Over The Region Have Diminished This Morning As A
Cold Front Moves Through The Area. A Moderate Southerly Flow Will
Become A Light To Moderate Westerly Flow Later This Morning In The
Wake Of The Front. Winds Will Still Be Gusty At Times.especially
In & Near Scattered To Numerous Showers & Thunderstorms This
Morning.but Sustained Winds Will Be Well Below 25 To 39 Mph. Thus.
The Wind Advisory Has Been Cancelled.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 70. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
600 Am Cst Sun Mar 4 2007

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-041800-
Baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-
Covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-george-
Greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-stone-
Washington-wayne-wilcox-
600 Am Cst Sun Mar 4 2007

...freezing Temperatures Expected Over The Inland Areas Late Tonight
And Early Monday Morning...

A Cold Front Moved Across The Central Gulf Coast Region Overnight...
Bringing A Return To Colder Weather. Tonight Will Be The Coldest
Night...when Temperatures Are Forecast To Bottom Out Between The
Middle And Upper 20s Over The Inland Counties. The Upper 20s To
Lower 30s Are Expected For The Interior Sections Of The Coastal
Counties.

Those Who Got A Jump Start On The Planting Of Sensitive Outdoor
Plants Such As Tomatoes Should Take Precautions To Cover Them During
The Overnight Hours...especially Tonight. If Possible...tender
Outdoor Potted Plants Should Be Brought Indoors Sunday Night.
Also...accommodations For Outdoor Pets Should Also Be Made.

Another Light Freeze Or Frost Will Be Possible Over The Inland Areas
Monday Night Into Early Tuesday Morning Under Mostly Clear Skies And
Light Winds.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Sunny, with a high near 62. North wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 30. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

short Term (today Through Tonight): Ridge Of Surface High Pressure
Extends From The Great Lakes South To The Lower Mississippi River
Valley...while Northwest Flow Persists Aloft. Cirrus Clouds Upstream
Will Steadily Move Over The Forecast Area Over The Next 24
Hours...and May Be Thick Enough By Late Afternoon/early Evening To
Block A Good Deal Of The Sky. The Surface Ridge Will Slowly Move
East Through Tonight...and Keep Very Dry And Mild Conditions Across
The Forecast Area Again Today. Temperatures Will Warm Nicely To
Around 70 Degrees This Afternoon...and Then Fall Back Into The Mid
30s Far Inland...to The Mid 40s Along The Coastal Zones...with Upper
40s At The Beaches. /22

long Term (wednesday Through Tuesday): Wednesday Starts With The
Shortwave Over Nm Having Lost Its Organization...though More Energy
Is Moving Through The Western Ridge...along With Energy Diving South
Into The Eastern Trough. Guidance Is Advertising The Eastern Energy
Not Getting Far Enough South To Affect The Southeastern
Conus...though It Does Shift The Eastern Trough More East. Guidance
Is Advertising An Upper Shortwave Crossing Just North Of The Fa
Thursday Afternoon/night...but With Little Fan-fare. It Does Draw The
Front South...to Over Northern Ms/al/ga...but For The Fa...does
Little More Than Push Surface High Pressure Moving Over The Eastern
Conus And Dry Northeasterly Flow Lasting Into The End Of The Week.
With The Weak Flow...temps And Moisture Levels Moderate Upward To
Seasonably Warm Levels.

For The Weekend...things Change...with A Series Of Shortwaves
Crossing Over The Central Conus...with Some Of This Energy Organizing
In The Saturday Night Into Sunday Time Frame (op Gfs Is 6 To 12hrs
Slower Than The Ensemble Mean...with The Difference Closer Than
Yesterday`s Guidance)...bringing A Chance Of Rain To The Area. Timing
Is Generally In The Saturday Night Into Sunday Night Time
Frame...though The Ensemble Guidance Shows Quite A Bit Of Variability
In Timing And Coverage Of Rain For The Weekend. The Best Compromise I
Feel Is To Lean Towards An Ensemble Mean/mex Blend. Even
So...coverage Looks To Be Scattered At Most. This Activity Doen`t
Look To Limit Temps For The Coming Work Week...with Temps At Or A Bit
Above Seasonal Normals Monday And Tuesday.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 42. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 45. Calm wind.

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Kmob 081059
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
455 Am Cst Thu Mar 8 2007

short Term [today Through Tonight]: Another Seasonably Warm Day On
Tap...with Temps Closer To The Coast Being Limited By Gulf Breeze
Coming Onshore This Afternoon. Have Leaned Towards The Cooler
Nam/met Sol`n Near The Coast As A Result. With The Increasing
Moisture Levels...have Fog In The Forecast. The General Easterly
Flow In The Boundary Layer Tonight Will Mean A General Fog With A
Few Patches Becoming Dense. See Nothing To Warrant A Dense Fog
Advisory At This Time. /16

[friday Through Saturday Night]...shallow Layer Of Patchy Fog Early
Friday Morning Will Burn Off Quickly After Sunrise...followed By
Increasing Clouds As Weak Mid Level Impulses Move Over The Forecast
Area. However...plenty Of Sunshine Early In The Day Will Not Deter
The High Temperatures From Reaching The Mid 70s Across Most Inland
Areas. Again The Cooler Gulf Waters Will Keep Temperatures In The
Upper 60s To Lower 70s Along The Immediate Coast. Southerly Low
Level Winds Will Transport Additional Moisture Across The Forecast
Area...and Depending On The Extent Of The Cloud Cover...may Need To
Introduce Fog Again Friday Night. Northwest Flow Aloft Will
Transition To Zonal Flow On Saturday...with A Mix Of Sun And Clouds.
High Temperatures Will Be Similar To Fridays Numbers. Meanwhile...an
H50 Shortwave Over The Northern Rockies On Saturday Will Move
Southeast Over The Western High Plains Late In The Day.

long Term [sunday Through Wednesday]: Gfs Continues To Evolve An
Upper Level Cutoff Off Low Out Of The Deepening Western High Plains
Trough Through The Day Sunday. Upper Low Will Continue To Deepen And
Migrate Slowly East...along With The Associated Surface Low...
Somewhat Parallel To The Northern Gulf Coast. The Exact Path And
Impacts From This System Remain Unclear At This Time. For Now Just
Going With A Gradual Increase In Precipitation Chances...with Best
Chances On Monday. This Type Of System Has A Tendency To Slow
Considerably If It Decides To Take A Track Further To The South.
Rain Chances May Need To Be Increased On Tuesday And Will Be
Addressed In Future Forecasts. The Increased Cloud Cover Will Bring
Slightly Cooler Temperatures Into The Picture Early Next Week...
Followed By Another Warming Trend Late In The Forecast Period As
Skies Clear In The Wake Of Exiting Upper Low. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 74. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Urgent - Weather Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
341 Am Cst Sat Mar 10 2007

...dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This Morning..

.areas Of Dense Fog...reducing Visibilities To A Fourth Of A Mile Or
Less Will Continue Across The Western Florida Panhandle...portions Of
Southwest Alabama And Southeast Mississippi Through 9 Am This Morning.
The Fog Will Be Especially Dense Near Bodies Of Water And Low Spots.
The Fog Will Gradually Begin To Lift And Dissipate Around 9 Am This
Morning.

Alz061>064-flz001>006-101500-
/o.ext.kmob.fg.y.0003.000000t0000z-070310t1500z/
Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-
Inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-
Including The Cities Of...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...
Ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...bellview...ensley...
Myrtle Grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...crestview...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso
341 Am Cst Sat Mar 10 2007

...dense Fog Advisory Now In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This Morning...

The Dense Fog Advisory Is Now In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This
Morning. Dense Fog...reducing Visibilities To A Fourth Of A Mile Or
Less...will Continue Through 9 Am This Morning. Conditions Will Begin
To Improve After 9 Am This Morning.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be Reduced
To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving...slow Down... Use Your
Headlights...and Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
430 Am Cdt Sun Mar 11 2007

short Term (today And Tonight): Weak Cold Front Is Settling Across
Central Mississippi And Alabama Today Will Wash Out To The North
Through Tonight. Just Enough Moisture Below 700 Mb To Warrant Some
Slight Chance Pops For Isolated Showers This Afternoon Across Our
Northcentral And Northeastern-most Zones. Patchy Fog This Morning
Will Burn Off By 9 Am Most Areas. Went A Little Cooler Near The
Coast On Max Temps Today As Cool Near Shore Waters Helping To Keep
Temps A Few Degrees Below Mos Guidance. We Kept The Temps Closer
To The Warmer Mav Mos Numbers Over The Inland Zones...resulting In
Upper 70s Over The Inland Areas This Afternoon. For Tonight...kept
Patchy Fog In The Forecast Given A Synoptic Pattern Conducive For
Development. /05

(monday And Tuesday)...upper Low Over The Southwest Will Gradually
Open Up And Slowly Move Eastward During The Early Part Of The Week.
In Advance Of This System...upper Ridging And Thickness Values
Increase Leading To Mainly Dry Conditions W/ Temperatures Well Above
Normal For This Time Of Year. Some Inland Areas Could See 80 Degrees
On Monday With Even More 80s Expected On Tuesday Depending On The
Amount Of Cloud Cover. Clouds Will Also Be On Increase As Moisture
Increases Ahead Of The Approaching Upper Low. /13

long Term: (wednesday Through Sunday)...global Models Continue To
Come Into Better Agreement On The Timing Of The Southwestern Upper
Low. The System Looks To Open Up And Weaken As It Traverses The Area
Wed Into Thu. Enough Low Level Moisture Should Be In Place For
Scattered Showers And Possibly Some Isolated Thunderstorms During
This Time Frame As Well. Instability Values Look Rather Weak At This
Time...so Not Expected Much In The Way Of Severe Thunderstorms.
Right On The Heels Of The This Departing System Will Be A Cold Front
As Another Trough Develops Across The Eastern States. This Cold
Front Is Currently Forecast To Move Across The Area On Friday. Thus
The Sct Pops Continue At Least Through The First Part Of Friday. A
Cooler Airmass Will Also Follow In The Wake Of The Front W/
Temperatures Falling Back To Climatological Levels For The Weekend.
/13

[ROLLTIDE]

Wednesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 71. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind between 5 and 10

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 71. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then isolated showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 68. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Isolated showers before 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 67. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 39. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Kmob 200920
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
415 Am Cdt Tue Mar 20 2007

short Term: (today And Tonight)...sfc High Pressure Centered Just
Off The Southeast U.s. Atlantic Coast Will Ridge West Across The
Southeastern States And The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Today And
Tonight...resulting In A Continued Light To Moderate Southeasterly
Flow Over The Area. This Will Continue To Bring A Warmer And
Increasingly Moist Airmass Into The Region. Aloft...several Weak
Mid/upper Level Disturbances Will Track East Across The Gulf Coast
Region...but Still Not Expecting Any Pcpn Today Through Tonight As
Deeper Moisture Still Not There. Will See Partly Cloudy Conditions
Similar To Yesterday...with Primarily Mid/high Level Clouds.
Otherwise Still Primarily A Temperature Fcst. Mav/met Numbers
Continue To Be Similar...again Went With The Slightly Warmer Mav Mos
For Today And Tonight. /12

&&

long Term: (wednesday Through Monday). A Weak Short Wave Trof
Noted Over La And Ms Will Continue To Move Ne And Dampen Out Through
12z Thu. This Will Result In A Few Extra Clouds Wed And Thu. At The
Sfc Ridge Over Much Of The Se Conus And Mid Atlantic Will Continue
Giving Way To Persistent E To Se Flow Over The Cwfa. By 00z Fri
Upper Ridge Shifts East Over Much Of The Se Conus And Eastern Gulf
Resulting In Better Subsidence Aloft Fri Through Early Sat. By Late
Sat Through Sun Night Next Short Wave Trof Moves Across The Central
Gulf Coast Region Followed By Main Trof Axis Moving Across The
Region On Mon. This Will Result In Slight Chance Pops Both Sun And
Mon With The Possibility Of Slightly Better Converge During The
Afternoon Hours On Mon. Will Continue To Use The Current 00z Mex
Guidance For Temps Through The Extended Pds. /32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL703 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ075-076-078-079-211415-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SP ANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...F ERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDAL E703 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007.NOW...AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THEREGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY DISSIPATINGTHROUGH 900 AM. THE DENSE FOG HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREADOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDAPANHANDLE...BUT REMAINS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OFALABAMA AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OBSERVATIONSINDICATE VISIBILITIES OF NEAR ZERO IN WEST MOBILE...WITH MANY OTHERLOCATIONS ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THEWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE REPORTING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOLESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHENDRIVING THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE ABRUPTLYENCOUNTERED. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN...USE THE LOW BEAMSETTING ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS...AND INCREASE FOLLOWING DISTANCES. THEFOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 80. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm

[Southernbelle]

Is there any rain in the forecast for this area this weekend?

[ROLLTIDE]

Is there any rain in the forecast for this area this weekend?


no rain in your forecast for the next 4 to 5 days and temps may reach the low 80's over the weekened

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 54. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

[Southernbelle]

no rain in your forecast for the next 4 to 5 days and temps may reach the low 80's over the weekened
I will be near Mobile tonight and this weekend so this is for Mobile forecast right??? Thank you so much!!!/kiss/

[ROLLTIDE]

I will be near Mobile tonight and this weekend so this is for Mobile forecast right??? Thank you so much!!!/kiss/

Are we still going to the beach tomorrow ?:wink:

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
332 Am Cdt Sat Mar 24 2007

short Term: [today And Tonight] Surface Ridge Extending West Across
The Northern Gulf Coast Will Continue Through Tonight As Upper High
Pressure Maintains Its Position Across The Northern Gulf Waters.
Precipitable Water Values Less Than An Inch With Guidance Pops Less Than
10 Across The Region. No Pops In Forecast At Least Next 24 Hours.
Will Be Some Mostly Patchy...occasionally Dense Fog Early This
Morning...mainly Over The Coastal Counties...lifting By 8 Am. Did
Adjust Todays Highs Down A Few Degrees Along The Coast...mav And Met
Had Pns And Dts 77 Or 78 For Today...they Reached 76 And 74
Respectively On Friday. Also Lowered The Maxes Over The Coastal
Waters To Agree With More Closely With Fridays Observed Values. Came
Down A Bit On The Lows Tonight From Guidance As The Mavmos Has Been
Too High The Last Few Mornings. /11

long Term [sunday Through Friday]: Upper Level Heights Remain
Amplified With Ridging Aloft Sliding Ever So Slowly East Across The
Southeast Through Monday. Still Enough Upper Ridging Is Expected...
Resulting In A Suppression Of Rain Sunday And Monday. Initial Upper
Low Over The 4-corners Of The Desert Southwest...lifts Northeast Around
The Periphery Of The Southeast States Upper Ridge Late This Weekend
With Yet Another Southern Stream Upper Trof To Eject Slowly Eastward
Across Central Texas Monday. It Is This Feature That Could Squeeze
Out A Small Chance Of Showers And Possibly A Few Thunderstorms Later
In The Day Tuesday. Unfortunately...the Upper Support Will Also Lift
Northeast And Deamplify Once It Moves Out Of Texas. The Net Result Is
That Forecasters Do Not See Much In The Way Of Beneficial Rains Coming
From This One. Of Course Some Rain Is Better Than No Rain. The Next
Chance Of Thunderstorms Could Come Friday. Next Southern Stream Upper
Level System And Surface Front Could Interact With Enough Gulf Moisture
For A Slightly Better Chance Of Rain Then. Temperatures Will Follow
Those In The Mexmos Messages...which Are Generally Persistence With
Surface/low Level High Pressure Ridge To The East Through Much Of The
Medium Range. /10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect For The S. Half Of The Area.

.the Fog That Developed Just Before Midnight Near The Coast Has
Become Much Denser & Spread North. Driving Visibility Has Been
Reduced To Less Than A Fourth Of A Mile In Places. Other Than Some
Occasional Brief Improvements In Visibility.conditions Should
Remain Poor Through The Night.

Alz052-059>064-flz001>006-msz075-076-078-079-251400-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0007.070325t0629z-070325t1400z/
Wa-escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-
Lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-
Inland Santa Rosa-coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-
Coastal Okaloosa-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.chatom.millry.atmore.brewton.
East Brewton.andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.
Bay Minette.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.
Foley.spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.richton.beaumont.new Augusta.
Leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
129 Am Cdt Sun Mar 25 2007

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am Cdt This Morning.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog
Advisory.which Is In Effect Until 9 Am Cdt This Morning.

[ROLLTIDE]

dense Fog Advisory In Effect Primarily So. Of U.s. Highway 84
From Midnight Tonight Until 8 Am Cdt Monday.

.areas Of Dense Fog Are Expected To Redevelop Again Tonight. A Light
Southeasterly Wind Flow On Sun Continued To Bring Gulf Moisture
Northward In The Region. As Evening Winds Become Light Or Calm And
Temps Cool.fog Will Develop As Conditions Reach Near
Saturation Close To Midnight. The Fog Will Then Progressively Become
Much Denser & Spread Through The Overnight Hrs. Visibility Will
Be Reduced To Less Than A Fourth Of A Mile In Many Places.
Especially In Low Lying & Other Fog Prone Areas. There May Be An
Occasional Brief Improvement In Visibility Overnight As Higher
Clouds Move Over The Area From The West.

Alz052-053-055-056-059>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-
260445-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0008.070326t0500z-070326t1300z/
Wa-clarke-monroe-conecuh-escambia-covington-upper Mobile-
Upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-
Coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-coastal Santa Rosa-
Inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.chatom.millry.jackson.
Thomasville.grove Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.
Atmore.brewton.east Brewton.andalusia.opp.prichard.
Saraland.bay Minette.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.
Fairhope.foley.spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.
Pensacola.ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.
Ensley.myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.
Crestview.wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.
Seminole.eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.
Beaumont.new Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.
Lucedale
344 Pm Cdt Sun Mar 25 2007

[ROLLTIDE]

dense Fog Advisory Has Been Cancelled.

.a Few Stations Were Reporting Fog With Restrictions To Visibility On
The Order Of 3 To 5 Miles. Right Near The Coast.localized
Visibilities Could Be Reduced To Around A Mile.

Alz052-053-055-056-059>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-
260915-
/o.can.kmob.fg.y.0008.000000t0000z-070326t1300z/
Wa-clarke-monroe-conecuh-escambia-covington-upper Mobile-
Upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-
Coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-coastal Santa Rosa-
Inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.chatom.millry.jackson.
Thomasville.grove Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.
Atmore.brewton.east Brewton.andalusia.opp.prichard.
Saraland.bay Minette.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.
Fairhope.foley.spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.
Pensacola.ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.
Ensley.myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.
Crestview.wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.
Seminole.eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.
Beaumont.new Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.
Lucedale
314 Am Cdt Mon Mar 26 2007

.dense Fog Advisory Is Cancelled.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Cancelled The Dense
Fog Advisory.

At This Time.forecasters Do Not Expect Fog To Be Widespread And
Dense Enough To Maintain The Advisory. There Is Also Potential Of
Varying Restrictions To Visibility Due To Passing

[Southernbelle]

Are we still going to the beach tomorrow ?:wink:

I missed you at the beach. It was perfect weather!

[Katfive]

I missed you at the beach. It was perfect weather!

Bikini Pics??????

[Southernbelle]

Roll, what beautiful weather today at Orange Beach! Missed you again!:wink:

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Breaking news !! it's raining

[Alex]

Well its about time! I stood outside of my house in southwest Mobile and watched a tornado from Tropical Storm Bill and no sirens sounded.

Note about the article, the Springdale Mall doesn't exist anymore does it? Isn't it just a conventional shopping center with a Sam's Club and Best Buy now?

http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/117533274789750.xml&coll=3&thispage=2
--
Sirens to give tornado warning


Saturday, March 31, 2007By DAN MURTAUGH
Staff Reporter
Mobile County Emergency Management Agency officials announced Friday that they will begin sounding sirens for tornado warnings.
Before now, agency policy was to reserve the sirens for chemical accidents. But recent severe weather, such as a deadly tornado in Enterprise earlier this month, prompted the agency officials to change their minds, Director Walt Dickerson said.
"I was considering doing it before then," Dickerson said, referring to the Enterprise tornado. "It could be, God forbid, just a matter of time before one like that touches down in Mobile."

http://www.al.com/images/spacer.gif http://ads13.udc.advance.net/RealMedia/ads/adstream_lx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/55559488/StoryAd/ALABAMALIVE/BrettRob02_AL_RoS_StoryAd/br_122906_story.html/34313230316665313436306539366530?_RM_EMPTY_&
http://ads.al.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_nx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/@StoryAd?x (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/) Whenever residents hear a siren, they should go inside and turn on a television or radio to see why the siren was sounded, Dickerson said.
In the past, Dickerson has said he did not want to sound the sirens during tornado warnings because Mobile has a lot of them, and he was afraid people would grow complacent from hearing them too much.
That's still a concern, he said, but it will not keep him from using the warning system.
"If one person hears the siren and it saves their life, it will be worth it," Dickerson said.
David Roberts, an electronics officer with the emergency agency, operates the system from a windowless room in the Emergency Operations Center on McGregor Avenue. Monitors, cables and boxes clutter the room, and a low-pitched buzz bounces off the walls.
Roberts said the sirens will be especially helpful for those who are outside when hazardous weather descends on the county.
"If you're out shopping at Springdale Mall, and you're putting your packages in your car, seeing dark clouds form is one thing," he said. "But if you see those dark clouds and hear the siren, then you'll know it's a pretty good idea to go back inside the stores."




Outdoor warning sirens originally were set up in U.S. cities and counties to warn people of military strikes during the Cold War. Many cities and counties that still maintain sirens do so to help protect against natural disasters.
Baldwin County does not have any outdoor sirens and has no plans to purchase any, officials have said.
Mobile County has 47 sirens, many of which are concentrated in the city of Mobile and in the Theodore area. Sirens have an audible range of about one mile, depending on atmospheric conditions.
!-- if (parseFloat(navigator.appVersion) == 0) { document.write(''); } --> http://ads.al.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_nx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/@StoryAd?x (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/) The agency has the capability to trigger only certain sirens, but officials will sound all the county's sirens for every tornado warning, at least to begin with, Dickerson said. He said he is not confident enough in the system's technology to pinpoint sirens in the beginning of the program.
Dickerson said all people, and especially those who don't live near a siren, should get a NOAA Weather Radio, which will automatically turn on when severe weather warnings pop up in the county.
Data from the National Weather Service show that Mobile County has had tornado warnings on 11 different days since September 2004.
During that same time span, Jefferson County, where Birmingham is, had warnings on eight days, and Madison County, where Huntsville is, had warnings on six days.
While Mobile has more warnings, it also has a tame history of tornado damage. Since 1950, according to Weather Service data, 58 funnels have hit the county, killing just one person and injuring 47.
In that same time span, 71 tornadoes hit Jefferson County, killing 85 people and injuring 870. Madison County has been hit by 47 tornadoes, which killed 79 people and injured 1,225, according to data.

[Alex]

This seems to be a reoccuring theme ever year.
--

March has been dry month in dry year


Saturday, March 31, 2007By KIM LANIER
Staff Reporter
Mobile stands on the verge or wrapping up one of its driest Marches on record as a slow-moving frontal system keeps our best chance of rain from arriving before the month ends tonight.
As of Friday, rainfall for the month stood at 0.99 of an inch, compared to a normal of 6.99 inches through March 30.
That paltry amount of precipitation ranks this month as the seventh-driest March on record for this area, according to Jack Cullen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mobile.

http://www.al.com/images/spacer.gif http://ads13.udc.advance.net/RealMedia/ads/adstream_lx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/394639406/StoryAd/ALABAMALIVE/MtLaurel_AL_RoS_Story/mt_laurel_testi_story_Dlvy.html/34313230316665313436306539393030?_RM_EMPTY_&
http://ads.al.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_nx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/@StoryAd?x (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/) The month roared in like a lion March 1, with severe storms that produced tornadoes across the state. Mobile received 0.93 of an inch of rain that day, and little since.
With no rain to wash it away, pollen has coated the region, wreaking havoc with allergy sufferers.
Forecasts called for a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms today, increasing tonight and ranging from 60 to 80 percent on Sunday. Cullen said no widespread, severe weather is expected but a few storms could be strong.
This will be the second consecutive year that the month of March ranked among the city's driest.
With just 0.24 of an inch, the third month of 2006 ranked as Mobile's driest March since record keeping began in 1841.
In second place is 2004, with 0.42 inch, according to local weather data. March 2005 received rainfall of nearly 2 inches below normal, but wasn't among the top 20 driest Marches.
Ironically, March is usually Mobile's wettest month, with a normal rainfall of 7.20 inches, according to local data.

For the year through Friday, only 6.15 inches have been received at the Mobile Regional Airport in west Mobile. That's 11.69 inches below normal, according to local weather data.
Once drought conditions take hold, it's hard to break, Cullen said.
"They kind of start feeding on themselves," he said.

http://www.al.com/images/spacer.gif http://ads13.udc.advance.net/RealMedia/ads/adstream_lx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/735260725/StoryAd/ALABAMALIVE/BrettRob02_AL_RoS_StoryAd/br_122906_story.html/34313230316665313436306539393530?_RM_EMPTY_&
http://ads.al.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_nx.ads/www.al.com/xml/story/Mobile/n/nmet/@StoryAd?x (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/) Once dry conditions set in, temperatures are able to climb, which in turn dries things out more, he said.
Relentless high pressure kept many recent storm systems from affecting Alabama.
"It's a summertime pattern," Cullen said.
Sea breezes have moved inland lately but haven't been able to spark showers and thunderstorms.
Now it's close to the time of year when the region normally stops getting many frontal systems, and scattered hit-and-miss thundershowers become the main source of rain.
"If we don't get some good rain soon, it's going to set us up for some really hot temperatures in the summer," Cullen said.
Unless a major pattern change occurs, "only one thing will break this drought -- a hurricane," Cullen said.
Extended outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center call for near-normal rain chances through April 12.
The U.S. Drought Monitor on Thursday indicated that most of southwest Alabama is suffering moderate drought conditions, while Choctaw, northern Clarke and Marengo counties are seeing severe drought conditions.
Eastern Escambia and eastern Conecuh counties and southeast Alabama are classified as extremely dry. The rest of the state is in moderate to severe drought, with an area near Huntsville considered to be in extreme drought.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is projecting that drought conditions will persist through June, with some slight improvement across much of the state, excluding southeast and south-central Alabama and the southernmost sections of southwest Alabama.

[ROLLTIDE]

Alex do you remember this area ?

[Alex]

Alex do you remember this area ?

I know the area well, but its far north of where I used to live. Nonetheless I'm quite familiar with it, as I used to take Shelton Beach Road north to AL 158 to get onto Interstate 65 north.

[ROLLTIDE]

Great weather for the start of baseball season :) Perfect

[ROLLTIDE]

long Term:
Major Forecast Concerns For The Easter Weekend As Models Are Hinting
At Gulf Low Cyclogenesis In The West Gulf Of Mexico Coupled With
Cold Air To Perhaps Impart Some Wintry Weather Across The Deep South.
Model Soundings And Conditional Precipitation Progs Indicate A Shot
At Sleet Or A Small Window Of Freezing Rain In Interior Sections Well
Away From Marine Influences. Historical Records Showed A Trace Of
Snow In 1997 At Mobile...so It Is Possible Though Very Rare. Record
Low Temperatures Will Likely Be Challenged Including The All Time
Record Low For The Month Of April If 32 Degrees Is Reached This
Weekend At Mobile. There Will Likely Be Considerable Differences In
The Upcoming Model Runs Since This Is A Highly Anomolous Situation So
Confidence Is Not That High Just Yet. Will Hold Off Mention Of Any
Winter Type Precipitation Due To High Uncertainties. The Airmass
Will Moderate During The Week With Another Surge Of Cooler Air Moving
Across The Upper Plains States In The Middle Of The Week.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

long Term (saturday Through Next Friday): Still See A Real
Possibility That We Will Observe Near Record Low Readings Over The
Inland Zones Sunday Morning...although The Latest Model Guidance
(namely The Gfs) Is Indicating An Increase In Midlevel Cloudcover
From The Southwest Early Sunday Morning As Isentropic Lift Over The
Stationary Front Over The Central Gulfmex Sets Up. This Will More
Likely Result In Low Readings A Couple Of Degrees Higher Than All Of
The Mos Guidance For Sunday Morning...and We Adjusted The Latest
Numbers Up A Couple Degrees From The Mav Mos At Most Sites.
Still...the Forecast Readings Of Upper 20s To Lower 30s Over The
Inland Zones Warrants A Freeze Watch For The Inland Areas Given We
Are Now Well Into The Spring Growing Season. Patches Of Light Rain
Will Likely Skirt The Coastal Areas During The Day Sunday As
Isentropic Lift Over The Central Gulf Stationary Front Sets Up...but
Most Of The Heavier Rainfall Should Stay Off To The Southwest On Sunday.
As A Shortwave Drives Southeast Out Of The Southern Plains...the Gfs
Still Wants To Gen Up A Low Over The Western Gulf Saturday
Night...passing The Low South Of Our Area During The Day Sunday Into
Early Monday. The Zone Of Enhanced Deep Layer Lift North Of The
Warm Front Passes Along And Just Offshore Where We Advertise The
Best Chance Of Rain Sunday And Sunday Night. Temps Will Moderate
Through Midweek As High Pressure Builds East Across Our Area...then
We See A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms By Wednesday As Low
Pressure Over The Plains Lifts Northeast Across The Great Lakes And
A Trailing Cold Front Slides East Across Our Area. The Gfs Still
Wants To Bring A Secondary 1004mb Low East Along The Coast As A 40
To 50 Kt Low Level Jet Noses North To The Central Gulf Coast. This
Results In 0-3km Helicities In The 250-400 M2/se Range On The Nose
Of The Instability Axis Of 1000 J/kg Sbcape. If The Warm Front
Ahead Of The Weak Low Is In The Right Place At Just The Right
Time...we Could See A Few Supercells Break Out Across The Southern
Part Of The Forecast Area. Given Wednesday Will Be Day 6 Of This
Forecast...it Is A Too Far Away Now To Get Overly Specific And
Overly Confident On The Finer Details. All We Can Say For Now Is
That We Still See Some Evidence Of A Severe Weather Threat For
Wednesday...particularly For The Southern Zones. The Timing And
Strength Of The Wednesday System Will Likely Change In Subsequent
Forecasts...so Stay Tuned. /05

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.new Augusta.
Leakesville.mclain
110 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 6 2007

.freeze Warning Remains In Effect From 1 Am To 9 Am Cdt
Saturday.
.freeze Watch Remains In Effect From Late Sat Night
Through Sun Morning.

A Freeze Warning Remains In Effect From 1 Am To 9 Am Cdt
Saturday. A Freeze Watch Remains In Effect From Late Saturday
Night Through Sun Morning.

A Series Of Front Will Continue To Bring Unseasonably Cold Air
Over The Area.with Freezing Temps Expected No. Of The
Al.fl State Line Tonight.north Of Interstate
10 Sat Night.

A Freeze Warning Means Sub-freezing Temps Are Imminent Or
Highly Likely. These Conditions Will Kill Crops & Other
Sensitive Vegetation.

A Freeze Watch Means Sub-freezing Temps Are Possible.
These Conditions Could Kill Crops & Other Sensitive Vegetation.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

SNOW !!! and 41 now

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
409 Am Cdt Thu Apr 12 2007

short Term (today And Tonight): The Latest Sfc Map Indicated Low
Pressure Over The Great Lakes Region With Associated Cold Front
Moving Into Eastern Seaboard States. The Cold Front Has Moved East
Of Our Fcst Area...with Drier Air Filtering In From The Northwest.
Sfc High Pressure Will Be Dominant Feature In The Short Term...with
Only A Few High Clouds Streaming Across The Area Today In The Near
Zonal Flow Aloft. A Developing Storm System Over The Plains States
Tonight Will Result In An Increase In Mid/upper Level Clouds By Late
Tonight...but No Pcpn Expected In The Short Term Period. Mavmos Temp
Guidance Was Several Degrees Too Cool With Regard To Wednesdays Max
Temps Over Our Interior Zones...which Generally Warmed To The 82 To
84 Degree Range. In The Wake Of The Frontal Passage...mavmos For
Today Is Cooler...in The Mid 70s For Most Of The Interior And The
Lower 80s Along The Coast. However...with The Drier Airmass Moving
In And Expecting Nearly Full Sun Today...have Opted To Warm Max
Temps For This Afternoon Several Degrees Over Mavmos Numbers...
Primarily Over Interior Zones. So Generally Looking For Upper 70s
And Lower 80s Across The Fcst Area This Afternoon. Will Go With The
Mavmos For Tonights Min Temps. /12

&&

long Term (friday Through Wednesday): The Southern Plains System
Advances Along The Red River Valley To The Lower Mississippi River
Valley Early Saturday Morning. The System Continues Eastward Across
Northern Mississippi And Alabama On Saturday Supporting Likely Pops
Across The Forecast Area. An 850 Mb Jet Of 50 Knots Along With
Surface Based Capes Around 1000 J/kg Support The Potential
Development Of Isolated Severe Storms...and Spc Has The Area
Outlooked For A Slight Risk. Timing Differences Among The
Ukmet/ecmwf/gfs/gem Show A Potential For The System To Slow Into
Saturday Night. This Will Support Raising Pops Over The Eastern
Portion Of The Area Saturday Night For The Somewhat Slower Exiting
System. Small Pops Persist Over The Eastern Portion Of The Area On
Sunday Due To Lingering Wrap Around Precipitation. Dry Conditions
Follow Along With Problems With The Temperature Forecast. Had To Go
With A Blend Of The Men And Mex Guidance For Saturday Night Through
Sunday Night Due To Run To Run Swings In The Temperature Guidance.
Small Pops Return On Tuesday Night And Wednesday As Another System
Advances Across The Southern Plains And Moves Across The Southeast
States. /29

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
354 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 14 2007

Alz052>062-flz001-003-005-msz079-142300-
Washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-escambia-
Covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-inland Escambia-
Inland Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-george-
Including The Cities Of...chatom...millry...jackson...
Thomasville...grove Hill...camden...pine Hill...homewood...
Monroeville...evergreen...greenville...luverne...b rantley...
Atmore...brewton...east Brewton...andalusia...opp...prichard...
Saraland...bay Minette...century...flomaton...molino...jay...
Crestview...lucedale
354 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 14 2007

.now...

Through 6 Pm...numerous Showers And Thunderstorms...some Possibly
Severe Will Move Northeast To Southwest Across The Area. Just Before
4 Pm Mobile Weather Radar Showed These Showers Ans Thunderstorms To
Be Along And East Of A Line From Near Grove Hill To Lucedale. This
Area Was Moving East Around 25 Mph. Rainfall Has Been Heavy In
Places..at Times And Some Small Stream And Street Flooding Has Been
Reported From Throughout The Area. Radar Estimates The Heaviest Rain
Has Been 2 To 4 Inches With A Few Isolated Spots Catching Near 5
Inches...generally Across Northern Clarke County. By 6 Pm The Back
Edge Of The Rain Should Be Near Interstate 65. There Is A Chance For
Additional Thunderstorms To Develop Along A Cold Front Back To The
West And A Tornado Watch Continues Until 6 Pm.

[ROLLTIDE]

Urgent - Weather Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
220 Am Cdt Sun Apr 15 2007

...wind Advisory In Effect From 10 Am This Morning To 7 Pm Cdt
This Evening...

.in The Wake Of A Strong Cold Front...sustained Northwest Winds
Around 25 Mph With Gusts Around 30 Mph Will Make For A Rather
Blustery Day.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-151530-
/o.new.kmob.wi.y.0004.070415t1500z-070416t0000z/
Choctaw-washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-
Lower Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...chatom...
Millry...jackson...thomasville...grove Hill...camden...
Pine Hill...homewood...monroeville...evergreen...greenv ille...
Luverne...brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...
Andalusia...opp...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...
Ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...bellview...ensley...
Myrtle Grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...crestview...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso...waynesboro...richton...beaumont ...
New Augusta...leakesville...mclain...wiggins...lucedal e
220 Am Cdt Sun Apr 15 2007

...wind Advisory In Effect From 10 Am This Morning To 7 Pm Cdt
This Evening...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A Wind
Advisory...which Is In Effect From 10 Am This Morning To 7 Pm Cdt
This Evening.

Northwest Winds Will Increase To Around 25 Mph By Late This Morning
And Continue Through The Afternoon. Gusty Conditions Are Also
Expected...with Gusts Near 30 Mph This Afternoon.

A Wind Advisory Means That Sustained Winds...or Frequent Gusts...of
25 To 39 Mph Are Expected. Winds This Strong Can Make Driving
Difficult...especially For High Profile Vehicles. Use Extra Caution
While Driving.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 37. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 76. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. North wind around 5 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 78. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Marine Weather Statement

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1057 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007GMZ650-655-670-675-220000-/X.NEW.KMOB.MA.S.0001.070421T1700Z-070422T0000Z/COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-1057 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007...PATCHES OF SMOKE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OFALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...PATCHES OF SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AREBEING BROUGHT WESTWARD...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS OF ALABAMAAND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES COULD BE RESTRICTED TOBETWEEN 1 AND 2 NAUTICAL MILES.VESSELS SHOULD POST ADDITIONAL LOOKOUTS FOR TRAFFIC. THE REDUCEDVISIBILITIES MAY LIMIT YOUR ABILITY TO SEE SMALLER VESSELS.THE FOG WILL MOVE THROUGH IN PATCHES...PERIODICALLY RESTRICTINGVISIBILITIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SMOKE TO BE MORE WIDESPREADOVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE SMOKEIS MOVING TO THE WEST.

[ROLLTIDE]

long Term: (monday Through Saturday). Sfc Ridge Over Se Ga And Ne
Fl Coast Will Hold Through Wed Giving Way To A Persistent Onshore
Flow Through Much Of The Week. Ridge Will Break Down And Shift East
Thu Through Sat As Deep Low Over The Central Conus Shifts East Of
The Mid Ms River Valley On Thu. With This Pattern Sfc Temps And Low
Level Moisture Will Gradually Increase Across The Cwfa Through Early
Thu Possibly Giving Way To Patchy Fog Each Night Begining Early In
The Week. By Wed Increased Mid Level Moisture Generally From The W
And Sw Will Help Give Way To More Clouds Than Sun Wed And Thu With
Sct Showers And Thunderstorms Developing Late Wed Continuing Through
Thu...generally Ahead Of A Weakening Cold Front Approaching From The
Nw. The Weakening Cold Will Likely Move Near The Coast Late Thu Then
Offshore By 12z Fri. In The Wake Of The Front Weak High Pres Builds
Over The Lower And Mid Ms River Valleys Resulting In Partly Cloudy
Skies And Near Seasonable Temps. This Airmass Moddifies Quickly By
Late Fri Through Sat As Upper Ridge Builds Over The N Central Gulf
And Central Gulf Coast Region. Will Continue To Use The Current 00z
Mex Mos Guidance For Temps. /32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
510 Am Cdt Mon Apr 23 2007

short Term [today And Tonight]: Latest Satellite Loops Show
Increasing Cloudiness Over South Ms Moving Ne`ward Over Much Of
Southeast Ms And Extreme Western Sections Of Southwest Al.
Aloft...mid To Upper Ridge Axis Was Located Just West Of The Cwfa
Progged To Shift East Of The Region And Weaken By 12z Tues. Better
Low Level Moisture Was Over Western Sections Of The Cwfa Giving Way
To Patchy Fog Over Much Of Southeast Ms And Some Interior Sections
Of Southwest Al. Patchy Fog Will Likely Develop Further To The East
This Morning Reforming Again Tonight Possibly Becoming A Little More
Widespread Near Sunrise As Better Moisture Spreads Eastward. Latest
Mos Guidance Both The Mav And Nam Suggest Some Measurably Precip
Over Western Sections Of The Cwfa Today Spreading North And East
Over Extreme Northern Parts Of The Cwfa This Evening...mostly In
Response To Afternoon Heating And Weak Mid Level Forcing West Of
The Ridge Axis...moving From West To East Over The Central Sections
Of The Ms And Al. Will Stay Close To The Current Mav Guidance For
Temps Through Tonight. /32

[tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...a Moist Southerly Flow Will
Remain Across The Forecast Area Between High Pressure Nudging East
Into The Atlantic And Low Pressure Moving East From The Western High
Plains Toward The Mid Mississippi River Valley. A Weakness In The
Ridge Tuesday Afternoon Across The Northwest Zones Could Result In A
Few Isolated Showers As The Seabreeze Pushes Inland. After Another
Dry Period Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning...isolated Rain
Showers Will Redevelop In Wednesday Afternoon Heat Across Most Of
The Forecast Area As Upper Trough Pushes In From The West. Scattered
Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms Are Expected In The Far Western
Zones Where Upper Weakness And Strongest Disturbances Will Occur.
This Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Will Spread East Across The
Remainder Of The Forecast Area Wednesday Night As The Upper Trough
And Disturbances Continue To Advance East Over The Area...and
Associated Cold Front Approaches From The West. Temperatures Will Be
Near Normal With Tuesday And Wednesday Highs In The Upper 70s To
Lower 80s...with Mid 70s Along The Beaches. Overnight Lows Will Fall
Into The Lower To Mid 60s...with A Few Pockets Of Upper 50s Across
The Inland Eastern Zones. Best Rain Chances Wednesday Night Could
Produce Up To One-half Inch Across The Inland Sections Of Southeast
Mississippi...with One-quarter Inch Or Less Across The Remainder Of
The Forecast Area. /22


long Term [thursday Through Sunday]: The Combination Of The Upper
Trough And Weakening Cold Front Advancing Toward I-65 Will Keep
A Chance (30 To 50%) Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Forecast On
Thursday. The Precipitation Will Taper Off From West To East
Thursday Night As The Axis Of Upper Trough Moves East Of The
Area...and The Cold Front Pushes Southeast In The Northern Gulf. The
Remaining Periods Will Be Dry Despite Another Upper Disturbance
Moving Over The Forecast Area Over The Weekend Due To A Very Dry
Airmass In Place. The Drier Air Will Bring Below Normal Low
Temperatures...but Strong Insolation During The Day Will Allow Highs
To Stay Near Normal. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 84. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
600 Am Cdt Thu Apr 26 2007

Alz052-053-061>064-gmz630-650-msz079-261300-
Washington-clarke-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-
Lower Baldwin-mobile Bay-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
George-
Including The Cities Of...chatom...millry...jackson...
Thomasville...grove Hill...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...lucedale
600 Am Cdt Thu Apr 26 2007

.now...

... A Tornado Watch Is In Effect Until 8 Am...

A Line Of Thunderstorms Extending Along A Thomasville Alabama To
Moss Point Mississippi Line Will Continue Moving East At 18 Mph
Across Into Southwest Alabama Through 9 Am.

Most Of The Storms Along The Line Are Likely Producing Wind Gusts Of
30 To 40 Mph...in Addition To Very Heavy Rains Totaling 1 To 2
Inches Per Hour And Possibly Some Small Hail. A Few Storms Along The
Line Are Showing Signs Of Weak Rotation On Doppler Weather Radar.
These Storms Are Being Monitored Closely By Forecasters For Signs Of
Severe Storm Development As They Move East Into Southwest Alabama
Through 9 Am. The Stronger Storms Are Moving East Along And Just
North Of The Coast.

Stay Tuned For Later Updates And Possible Warnings From The National
Weather Service.

[ROLLTIDE]

ALC097-261945-
846 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN & SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN.
SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SW AL.

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 846 AM CDT.A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING GRADUALLY EAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS SW AL WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS SO. CNTL AL AND
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY THE LATE MORNING HRS. THROUGH
MIDDAY.MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SO. END OF
THE LINE AFFECTING COASTAL AL & THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
TOTALING NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR.IN (http://hour.in/) ADDITION TO WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH.

THE BAND OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 60. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 110842
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
340 Am Cdt Fri May 11 2007

short Term: (today Through Tonight)...wild Card In The First Two
Periods Of The Forecast Is Upper Low Moving From Over Extreme
Southeast Tx To Over The North-central Gulf Of Mex. Guidance Is
Advertising The Offshore Flow Currently Underway Continuing Into
Saturday...limiting Any Decent Low Level Moisture Influx Ahead Of
This System. Where Precip Will Happen Is The Biggest Problem With
This System. Guidance Is Advertising The Best Chance Being Southwest
This Afternoon...transitioning To North Tonight...in A Band Like
Fashion. Have Little Insight...so Haven`t Strayed From Guidance.

In The Record Front...do Not Feel That Mobile`s Record High Of 95
Will Be Broken. Pensacola`s 90...that Is A Distinct
Possibility...with A Forecast High Of 89 For Today. /16

long Term: (saturday Through Thursday)weak H5 Low Weakening As It
Moves East Across Northern Gulf Of Mexico Will Phase Somwwhat With
Another Upper Trough Extending Down The East Coast With Result Being
A Weak Area Of Surface Low Pressure Over The Southeast States.
Enough Precipitable Water...around 1.50...across The Forecast Area
That Some Thunderstorms Should Develop In The Heat Of The Day On
Saturday. As The East Coast Upper Trough Moves East...a Surface High
Pressure Will Drop Down The Front Side Of The Trailing Upper Ridge
And Send Another Back Door Front Our Way With Drier And Cooler Air
For Next Week. As The Surface High Continues To Drop South Off The
Southeast Coast Of The United States By Mid Next Week The Moisture
Gradient Will Be Just Along And Across The Forecast Area...so Will
Expect To See Isolated To Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms From
Monday Afternoon Until Thursday...primarily Afternoon And Evening
And More Prevalent Near The Coast Where The Sea Breeze Will Enhance
The Low Level Convergence. Temperatures Warm To Hot Saturday And
Sunday Will Moderate Into The Low And Mid 80s After The Back Door
Front Arrives Monday Morning Or There Abouts. /11


&&

marine: Upper Low Over Extreme Southeast Tx Will Move Southeast To
Over The North-central Gulf Of Mex...then Meander Around And Weaken
As Upper System Dives South Over The Eastern Conus...pushing A Front
Across The Area Sunday. General Offshore Synoptic Flow Is Expected
Through The Weekend. A Gulf Breeze Is Likely Saturday...before The
Weak Front Passes. High Pressure Will Push South Over The East
Coast...bringing A Northeast To East Flow Into Mid Week. As The High
Moves South...a Tight Gradient Will Create A Moderate To Strong Flow
Into Mid Week Over Northeastern Gulf Coastal Waters. /16


&&

fire Weather: May See A Few Pockets Of Humidity Below 35 Percent
Today But Overall The Trend Will Be More Moisture With Light Winds
Today. Saturday Will See More Of A Northwest Wind As The Weak
Surface Low To The East Will Affect The Circulation Over The Area
But The Northwest Wind Will Carry More Moisture Than A Post Frontal
Northwest Wind Would...plus Expect Scattered Showers And
Thunderstorms On Saturday. /11


&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 112024
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
324 Pm Cdt Fri May 11 2007

short Term [this Afternoon Through Saturday]: Upper Low Over
Southern Louisiana Starting To Provide Synoptic Scale Support While
Sea Breeze On The Meso-scale Provides The Surface Focus For Scattered Coverages
Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Brief...strong Wind Gusts Can Possibly
Occur In Storms Through The Remainder Of The Day Along With The
Occurrence Of Small Hail. A Few Storms Possibly Attaining Severe
Levels With Large Hail And Damaging Winds. Be Prepared To Move To A
Place Of Shelter In The Case A Warning Is Issued For Your Area.

Forecasters Maintain A Small Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Tonight Out Of Respect For The Weak Upper Level Energy/support Forecast To
Slide Slowly East Southeast Off The Louisiana Coast. Upper Level Weakness/trof
Atop The Area On Saturday Along With Any Surface Forcing From The Afternoon
Seabreeze In A More Moist Environment (precipitable Waters Near 1.5 Inches)
Suggests A Scattering Of Thunderstorm Coverages Saturday. Forecast Temperature/dewpoint
Profiles In The Lower Levels Of The Atmosphere Saturday Again Suggests
The Potential Of Brief Strong Wind Gusts In Thunderstorms. Isolated Severe
Wind Gusts In Excess Of 55 Mph Cannot Be Ruled Out As Well On Saturday.
Mild Overnight Temperatures Along Above Seasonal Warmth For Daytime
Highs Continue. /10

long Term [sunday Through Friday]: Upper Troffing From The Mid
Atlantic Into The Gulf Late In The Weekend Is Forecast To Move East
Off The East Coast. As This Occurs...a Surface High Pressure Ridge
Builds Southward Across The Virginias And Carolinas. As The Surface
High Continues To Drop South Off The Southeast Coast Of The United
States By Mid Next Week The Moisture Gradient Will Be Just Along And
Across The Forecast Area...so Will Expect To See Isolated To
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms From Monday Afternoon Until
Thursday...primarily Afternoon And Evening And More Prevalent Near
The Coast Where The Sea Breeze Will Enhance The Low Level
Convergence. Temperatures Warm To Hot Saturday And Sunday Will
Moderate Into The Low And Mid 80s After The Back Door Front Arrives
Monday Morning Or There Abouts. Another Weak Surface Trof/front
Settles Into The Southern States Late Next Week Which Should Support
A Small Chance Of Thunderstorms Then. 10/11

&&

marine: An Upper Level System Will Move Southeast From Texas To The
Central Gulf. Although The Prevailing Light Wind Flow Is Expected To
Remain Offshore Through The Weekend...a Light Onshore Wind Flow Will
Likely Develop Each Afternoon...especially Across The Bays And Near
Shore Gulf Waters Due To Resultant Sea Breeze Effects. Precipitation
Chances Will Increase Across The Region Through The Weekend...with A
Few Of The Storms Possibly Becoming Strong Along The Coast. Surface
High Pressure Will Build Across The Southeast States On Monday...
Creating A Moderate To Strong Southeasterly Wind Flow And Building
Seas Through The First Half Of Next Week. /22

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL111 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007ALZ061>063-MSZ079-161900-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER MOBILE-GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOWNTOWN MOBILE...111 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS GEORGEAND MOBILE COUNTIES...AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR OAK GROVE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OFMOVELLA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SATSUMA...CREOLA...I65 AND US 43...AXIS...SNOW AND TANNER WILLIAMS...SARALAND AND EIGHT MILE THROUGH 215 PM CDT.THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUSCLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICHCOULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVEPASSED.THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOWLYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVEREDROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 171001
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
500 Am Cdt Thu May 17 2007

short Term [today And Tonight]: As Upper System Over The Great
Lakes Organizes And Moves Southeast Into Friday...front (over Al/nw
Fl Coastal Waters As I Type) Will Continue To Push South. The
Continued Southeast Movement Of The Upper System Is A Change From
Yesterday`s 00z Guidance...which Dug The System Southeast...then
East. The Op Models Have Been Consistent...but The Ensembles Have
Been Bouncing Up And Down Over The Last Few Days For The
Today/tonight Forecast Period. Current Ensemble Numbers Have
Adjusted Closer To The Op Models...so Haven`t Deviated From Guidance
Significantly. /16

&&

long Term: [friday Through Wednesday]...east Conus Upper Longwave
Trough Will Lift To The Northeast Over The Weekend...leaving A Weak
Shortwave Trough Across The Forecast Area Through Early Next Week.
Large Scale Subsidence And A Very Dry Air Mass Will Dominate The
Remainder Of The Forecast Package...with Really No Rain In The
Forecast. Only Exception Being Inland Southeast Mississippi Next
Wednesday Where Enough Returning Low Level Moisture Could Allow An
Isolated Shower Or Two To Develop. Meanwhile...the Desert-like
Environment Will Bring Unseasonably Cool Overnight Low Temperatures
To Region...with Lows Mostly In The 50s. We Could See Some Upper 40s
Inland Over The Next Night Or Two. The Low Temperatures However Will
Moderate Slightly Early Next Week As A Surface Ridge Building Along
The East Coast Brings A Light Onshore Flow To The Forecast Area.
Absolutely Gorgeous Afternoons Ahead With Highs In The Low To Mid
80s Under Plenty Of Blue Skies. /22

&&

marine: Front Will Continue To Move South Of Al/nw Fl Coastal
Waters Today...with Moderate To Strong Offshore Flow Following.
Winds Have Come Up Faster Than Latest Guidance Is Suggesting...so
Will Need To Keep This In Mind For Any Last Minute Changes For The
Cwf Issuance.

Surface High Pressure Will Move Southeast To Over The Mid Miss/tenn
River Valley From The Northern Plains Into Saturday...providing The
Mod To Strong Offshore Push. But As The Surface High Stalls And
Weakens Saturday Night On...offshore Flow Will Weaken. A System
Organizing Over The Caribbean This Weekend Will Meander Northeast
Into The Coming Week...creating A Generally East Flow Lasting Into
Tuesday. The Caribbean System Will Move Off As A System Moves Over
The Western Central Plains...with Onshore Flow Returning By Tuesday
Night. /16

&&

fire: A Very Dry Airmass Will Move Into The Region The Remainder
Of The Week Behind A Cold Front Pushing South Of The Area. A
Strengthening North Wind Will Also Occur Today In The Wake Of The
Front. The Combination Of Winds Above 10 Mph...afternoon Rh Near
30%...and Kbd Index Values Above 500...i Will Issue A Red Flag
Warning For South Central Alabama. Red Flag Warning Will Also Be In
Effect For The Western Florida Panhandle. The Dry Conditions Leading
To Possible Fire Weather Dangers Will Remain Through The Weekend. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 180309 Aaa
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1009 Pm Cdt Thu May 17 2007

update: Will Be Dominated By High Pressure And Rainfree Weather For
The Next Several Days. Forecasters Made Some Gridded Updates To
Short Term Max/mins Over The Water To Come Into Better Alignment With
Our Neighbors.

marine: Thermal Discontinuity Between The Land And Sea Along With
High Pressure Into The Southern States Causes Drainage Effect And A
Resultant Moderate To Strong Offshore Flow Tonight. Marine Forecaster
Adjusted The Winds Upward Earlier In The Shift And Will Maintain On
The Late Evening Package. Seas Building As Well With The Higher Seas
In The 20 To 60 Nm Zones Associated With The Northerly Fetch Later
Tonight. /10

&&

mob Watches/warnings/advisories:
Al...fire Weather Watch From 1 Pm Friday To 7 Pm Friday For The
Following Zones: Butler...conecuh...covington...crenshaw...
Escambia...monroe...and Wilcox.

Fl...red Flag Warning From 10 Am Friday To 7 Pm Friday For The
Following Zones: Coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...
Coastal Santa Rosa...coastal Walton...inland Escambia...
Inland Okaloosa...and Inland Santa Rosa.

Ms...none.
Gm...small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Friday For The Following Zones:
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm...
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20
Nm...mobile Bay...waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl From
20 To 60 Nm...and Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms
From 20 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL500 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-201200-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-500 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEASTMISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO GIVEWAY TO AN INCREASED WILDFIRE THREAT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS FORSEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Widespread haze. Areas of smoke. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Southeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 60. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 61. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind between 5 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 020800AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL300 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]: TROPICAL STORM BARRY TO HAVE A MIMINALEFFECT OVER THE LAND ZONES OF FORECAST AREA. MAY ACTUALLY BE LESSCONVECTION AROUND THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE DRIERNORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF BARRY`S CIRCULATION.GENERALLY 20 PERCENT POPS ALL ZONES...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSINGJUST NORTH OF AREA MAY HELP FIRE UP A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS. WILLKEEP ISOLATED GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUESEAST ACROSS NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH MAVMOSTEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH IF BARRY DOESN`T MOVE OUT FAST ENOUGHTO THE NORTHEAST...WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ANDA SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE THOSE REGIONS.THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW. /11LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]: WITH BARRY OUT OF THEPICTURE...FOCUS TURNS TO A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AT THEBASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROF. THESE DISTURBANCES SLIDE EASTWARDACROSS THE GULF COAST EARLY ON IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. PRECIPITABLEWATERS ARE SUCH THAT WE COULD SEE ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL MUCH NEEDEDSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A RAIN STARVED GULF COAST SUNDAYTHROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE MET MOS MAXES FORSUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPERRIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD TEND TOSUPPRESS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDINGWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF...DAILY MAXESFORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEVELOPINGCOASTAL SEABREEZE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITHPLENTIFUL MOISTURE...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR CLIMATOLOGICALCOVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW 20 PERCENTCOVERAGES...IN LINE WITH LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MOS OUTPUT...APPEARS TOBE A FAVORABLE CALL. MILD NIGHTTIME MINS. /10 &&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 060931
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
431 Am Cdt Wed Jun 6 2007

short Term [today And Tonight]: No Major Changes To Forecast In
The Short Term With Conditions Very Similar To Yesterday. Only
Difference Will Be A More Southerly Component To The Wind As Center
Of High Pressure Rebuilds Across The Western Atlantic. A Stalling
Cold Front Across Southern Tennessee And South Carolina Will Lift
Northeast As A Warm Front Tonight...with A Weakly Amplified Upper
Ridge Building Across The Forecast Area. High Temperatures Will Be
Very Similar Compared To Yesterday...topping Out In The Upper 80s To
Lower 90s. Isolated (10%) Thunderstorms Should Develop Again
Today...mainly Along The Coast Late In The Morning...expanding
Further Inland During The Afternoon. Any Remaining Convection Should
End Around Supper-time...leaving Only A Few Mid And High Clouds. Lows
Will Settle From The Upper 60s Well Inland To The Mid 70s Across The
Coastal Zones. /22

This Afternoon`s Wet Microburst Risk Is Moderate

long Term [thursday Through Tuesday]: The Forecast Area Looks To
Become Under The Influence Of A Weakness In The Upper Atmosphere
Thursday...between An Upper Ridge Over The Southeast And Troffing
Over The Plains. Precipitable Waters Along With Boundary Layer
Moisture Looks To Recover To Values More Typical For This Time Of
Year => (pw`s 1.7 To 1.9 Inches And Boundary Layer Specific Humidities
Averaging 14-16 G/kg). Given Daytime Instability...forecasters Expect
Scattered Thunderstorms To Develop Through The Course Of The Day
Thursday. Thunderstorms That Form Thursday Look To Be Efficient In
Producing Brief Strong Wind Gusts. Thunderstorms Decrease In Coverage
Through The Evening. Although Upper Ridge Is Forecast To Develop Over
The Southern States This Weekend Into Early Next Week...medium Range
Mos Suggests A Diurnally Forced...scattered Daytime Convection
Pattern Within A Persistently Moist And Unstable
Environment...tapering Off In Coverage Each Evening And Overnight.
Thunderstorms Could Be Stronger Near Sea- Breeze Boundaries And
Converging Convective Outflows. Days Warm And Nights Mild. /10

&&

marine: A Light To Occasional Moderate Southerly Wind Flow Will
Develop Today And Tonight As High Pressure Rebuilds Across The
Western Atlantic. The Strongest Onshore Wind Flow Will Occur On
Thursday Due To An Increased Pressure Gradient Between The High
Strengthening To 1021 Mb...and A Cold Front Pushing Southeast Through
The Central Plains. The Sea Breeze Oscillation Will Also Enhance The
Onshore Flow. As A Result...seas May Build Up To 5 Feet For A Short
Duration Thursday Evening. The Winds Will Turn Back To The West Over
The Weekend As The Center Of High Pressure Moves West Across The
Northern Gulf. /22

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 081016
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
515 Am Cdt Fri Jun 8 2007

short Term [today And Tonight]: Latest Sfc Map Shows High Pressure
Centered Near The Ga/ Ne Fl Coast Progged To Build West Through
Tonight. Across The Central Gulf Coast Conditions Will Remain Muggy
Through Tonight With Dewpts Ranging From The Low To Mid 70s. Latest
Satellite Loops Show A Weakening Short Wave Trof Moving Eastward
Progged To Dampen Out Over Al And Nwfl Later Tonight. With Continued
Forcing Aloft And Sufficient Moisture In The Low To Mid Layers
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Can Be Expected. The Best Chance
Of Rain Will Begin Along The Al Coast This Morning Stretching North
Into Se Ms Then Developing To The East Mostly From Afternoon
Heating. Will Go A Slightly Higher Than Guidance For Temps This
Afternoon And Stay Close To The Current 00z Mex Guidance For Minds
Tonight. /32

Today`s Wet Microburst Risk Is Moderate
Today`s Rip Current Risk Is Moderate

[saturday Through Sunday Night]...surface High Pressure Will Be
Replaced By A Surface Trough As A Dissipating Cold Front Stalls
Across The Area. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Will Develop
Again On Saturday Starting Across The Northern Zones Near The Front
And Migrating Southward Throughout The Day. As The Boundary Stalls
Near The Coast Saturday Night...isolated Showers Should Persist Into
The Evening Hours Across The Coastal Zones Before Moving Offshore.
An Isolated Shower Or Two Could Pop Up Across The Coastal Zones
Sunday Afternoon During Maximum Heating...but Moisture Will Be
Limited. Dry Across The North. A Light Northerly Flow And Mostly
Sunny Conditions On Sunday Will Bring Very Warm Temperatures To The
Forecast Area....with Mid 90s Extending All The Way To The
Immediate Coast. /22

&&

long Term [monday Through Thursday]: Upper Ridge Remains In
Control...while A Surface Trough Across The Region Will Be Replaced
By A Surface Ridge Rebuilding Across The Northeast Gulf. Lows Level
Moisture Will Return Very Slowly Through Mid Week With An Increase
In Precipitation Chances From 10 Percent On Tuesday To 20 Percent On
Wednesday And Thursday. Temperatures Will Remain Near Or Slightly
Above Normal With Afternoon Highs Warming Into The Mid 90s Inland
With Upper 80 Along The Beaches. /22

&&

marine: High Pressure Will Build Over The North Central Gulf
Through Monday Then Move East Through Midweek. Southerly Winds And
Seas Will Gradually Decrease Later Today And Early Tonight Followed
By A Light Northwest Flow Early Saturday Morning. A Light Southerly
Wind Flow Can Be Expected Saturday Afternoon Becoming North Late.
Southerly Winds And Seas Will Become Bettered Develop Sunday Through
Tuesday As High Pressure Builds East. /32

&&

fire: A Light Northerly Flow And Mostly Sunny Conditions Will
Return Late In The Weekend As A Surface Boundary Pushes South Of The
Region. A Very Dry Airmass And Warm Afternoon Temperatures Will
Allow Afternoon Relative Humidity To Drop Below Red Flag Warning
Criteria Across The Region On Sunday And Monday. There Will Be An
Increase In The Threat Of Wildfires...and These Conditions Will Be
Monitored For Future Watches And Warnings. /22

&&

preliminary Point Temps/pops:
Mobile 89 73 91 71 / 40 20 40 10
Pensacola 88 72 91 74 / 40 10 30 10
Destin 86 75 88 75 / 40 10 30 10
Evergreen 89 71 92 68 / 50 20 50 05
Waynesboro 87 72 93 69 / 50 20 40 05
Camden 88 71 93 69 / 50 20 50 05

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 102032AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL330 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE WET MICROBURST RISKFOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS NIL. THE STACKED LOW OFF THENEW ENGLAND COAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILEA SHORTWAVE TROF...WITH AN INTERMITTENT CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OFTHE TROF...ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS. THE BROAD RIDGING PATTERN OVERTHE CENTRAL STATES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS PINCHES INBETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND RETREATS FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ASA SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EAST COASTINTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES NEAR .75 INCHES INVADING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THEFORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.TUESDAY IS TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING ALOFT ANDPRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLELEVELS. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS STILL IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAYTHEN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAYAS THE RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD. THE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONTUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENINGCAP AND SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SHORTWAVES WHICH SHIFT INTOTHE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TROF THROUGH THEAREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WEAK TROFREMAINS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPSSUPPORTING SMALL POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. /29&&LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): NO CHANGES TO EXTENDEDPERIODS EXCEPT MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS. THESHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS EJECTS ALLOWING FOR DEEP LAYERRIDGING TO REBUILD. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERNSTATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE THROUGHSATURDAY THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITHRIDGING REBUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY SMALL POPSREMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITHTEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29&&MARINE: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MEANDEROVER THE MARINE FA TONIGHT...ADDING A WEST TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT TOTHE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT A DIURNAL CIRCULATION.TO OCCUR. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE FA LATER TUESDAY INTOTUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY...BUT THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE DIURNALSWITCHING OF THE WINDS TO RESUME BY THURSDAY. /16&&FIRE: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT ARE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT TO MATCHTHE DURATION CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...SO CANCELED THE RED FLAGWARNING FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. SIMILAR REASON APPLIES FORTUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGIONMAY JUST BARELY ALLOW THE DURATION CRITERIA TO BE MET...BUT JUSTOVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES.SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA FOR TUESDAY. NOCONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /29&&PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: MOBILE 68 97 71 91 / 05 05 05 20PENSACOLA 72 94 74 91 / 05 05 05 20DESTIN 75 92 76 89 / 05 05 05 20EVERGREEN 62 97 68 89 / 05 05 10 20WAYNESBORO 62 97 67 91 / 05 05 10 20CAMDEN 62 98 68 90 / 05 05 10 20&&MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: AL...NONE.FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

[ROLLTIDE]

Statement as of 1:35 am CDT on June 13, 2007

... Record high temperature set at Mobile...

a record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Mobile yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 99 set in 1882.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 170207 AAAAFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL910 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDINGAND MAKE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAKS. OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECASTAPPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.&&MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: AL...NONE.FL...NONE.MS...NONE.GM...NONE.&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 200246 AABAFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL946 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007UPDATE: MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND ISQUICKLY FALLING APART PER LOCAL RADAR TRENDS AND CLOUD TOP WARMINGNOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE UNDER THEINFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRYING ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD CUT INTOTHE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN. CONSIDERING THIS...WE HAVE TWEAKEDPOPS AND QPF A BIT OVER THE INLAND ZONES BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALLCHANCE COAST AND OFFSHORE. NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH./10&&MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 220958
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
500 Am Cdt Fri Jun 22 2007

short Term (today And Tonight): Unseasonably Dry Airmass Continues
Across The Region Today. 589 Dm Upper Level Ridge Will Continue To
Suppress Cloud Development And Any Hope For Rain As Well As Forecast
Soundings Indicate A Stout Cap Near 750 Mb Of 12c. Meanwhile...sfc
High Pressure Will Gradually Slide East Today And Allow For A Weak
Seabreeze Circulation To Develop Today And This Is Where A Few
Clouds May Be Found This Afternoon. The Dry Atmosphere Combined W/
The Dry Soil Moisture Conditions Will Allow The Airmass To Heat
Rapidly Today. Temperatures Will Warm Into The Middle And Upper 90s
From About Interstate 10 Northward...the Warmest Temps (upper 90s)
Will Be Found Across Interior Southwest Alabama. Coastal Areas Will
Be Somewhat Moderated By A Weak Sea Breeze...but Still Approach The
Low To Mid 90s. Luckily Dewpoints Will Again Mix Out Due To A Deeply
Mixed Layer...mixing Heights Near 8kft...thus Heat Index Values Will
Not Get Out Of Hand. /13

The Wet Microburst Risk For Today: Unlikely.

&&

long Term (saturday Through Thursday): While Sfc High Pressure
Ridge Remains In Place Over The Southeastern States Through The
Extended Period...ridging Aloft Begins To Break Down On Saturday As
Upper Trof Over The Southern Plains States Drifts Slowly Eastward.
By The End Of The Weekend And Through The Middle Part Of Next
Week...a More Unsettled Weather Pattern Will Return With Upper Trof
Maintaining Itself Just To The West Of The Fcst Area And Abundant
Lolvl Moisture...associated With The Tropical Wave In The Western
Caribbean...is Advected Northward Across The Gulf And Into The
Southeastern States. Still Looks Like Rain Chances Will Start Going
Up Into The Chance Category On Sunday Night...then Generally
Continuing With Chance Pops Through Thursday With Best Chances Over
The Western Half Of The Fcst Area. Still Above Normal Temps Over The
Weekend...but With More Clouds And Pcpn Around During Most Of Next
Week Look For Slightly Cooler Temps That Will Be Just Below Normal
Levels. /12

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1159 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 24 2007

Alz061>064-flz002-004-006-gmz630-650-655-msz078-079-250700-
Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-
Coastal Escambia-coastal Santa Rosa-coastal Okaloosa-mobile Bay-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...pensacola...ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...
Bellview...ensley...myrtle Grove...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso...wiggins...lucedale
1159 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 24 2007

.now...
Scattered Showers And A Few Thunderstorms Move Northeast Across The
Gulf Coast Through 2 Am. Additional Showers And Thunderstorms Are
Possible Into The Alabama And Northwest Florida Coastal Waters Late
This Evening. These Will Also Be Coming Up Into The Coastal Sections.
Precipitation Amounts Are Forecast To Be At Or Below A Quarter Inch.
No Severe Weather Is Expected. Be On The Lookout For Occasional
Lightning And Be Prepared To Move In Doors

[ROLLTIDE]

short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1130 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 25 2007

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-260630-
Choctaw-washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-
Lower Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...chatom...
Millry...jackson...thomasville...grove Hill...camden...
Pine Hill...homewood...monroeville...evergreen...greenv ille...
Luverne...brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...
Andalusia...opp...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...
Ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...bellview...ensley...
Myrtle Grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...crestview...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso...waynesboro...richton...beaumont ...
New Augusta...leakesville...mclain...wiggins...lucedal e
1130 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 25 2007

.now...
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Over The Inland Counties Of
Southeast Mississippi And South Alabama Will Continue To Gradually
Diminish In Coverage And Intensity Through 2 Am. Isolated Showers And
Thunderstorms Closer To The Coast Will Continue Through Early
Morning. The Showers And Thunderstorms Will Move To The East At 10
Mph...bringing Locally Heavy Rains Of 1 To 2 Inches Per Hour For

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Kmob 280839
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
337 Am Cdt Thu Jun 28 2007

short Term: (today And Tonight)...morning Water Vapor Imagery
Indicates A Slightly Drier Airmass Working Into The Area From The
East. This Will Help Cut Down On The Rain Coverages Today. The Best
Rain Chances Will Be Across The Western Zones Where Deep Moisture
Will Reside. Will Maintain Isolated Pops For The Rest Of The Area As
The Seabreeze And Residual Outflow Boundaries Will Be Enough To Get
Some Development. Forecast Sounding For This Afternoon Indicates A
Pw Of 1.53 Inches...mlcape Around 1200 J/kg And A K-index Of 30. The
Drier Mid Level Will Also Aide Downdraft Potential In Any
Thunderstorms That Develop Today...in Fact The Windex Value Is
Around 61 Kts On The Forecast Sounding. Thus There Is The Potential
Of Gusty Winds With The Strongest Thunderstorms. /13

This Afternoon`s Prelim Wet Microburst Risk: Moderate.

long Term: (friday Through Wednesday)friday And Saturday Look To
Be Days Of Hit Or Miss Showers And Thunderstorms...mainly Afternoon
And 20 To 30 Percent Probability. 500 Hundred Millibar High Remains
Over Area And Warmer Air In The Mid Levels...so Expect Convection
That Is Able To Develop Will Be Aided By Differential Heating And
Other Localized Boundaries...bay Breeze...sea Breeze And Old Outflow
Boundaries. By Sunday An Upper Trough Extending From Northeast To
Southwest From The New England Area Will Push A Weak Front Possibly
As Far South As Central Alabama...front Will Not Make It To The
Forecast Area But A Light Northerly Wind Flow May Which Will Enhance
The Convergence Along Sea Breeze. In Addition...an Easterly Wave
Moving Across The Central And Northern Gulf Will Bring An Increase
In Precipitable Water Values...up Around Two Inches Or More From
Sunday Night Through Tuesday Evening. All Of Which Should Mean A
Better Chance For Showers And Thunderstorms The First Part Of Next
Week...mainly Afternoon And Evening...forecast Will Reflect Day Time
Pops Between 30 And 50 Percent. /11

&&

marine: Little Change In The Marine Forecast Again This Package.
Easterly Winds Generally 10 Knots Or Less In The Bays And Slightly
Higher Over The Gulf Waters Through Thursday As The High Pressure
Ridge Persist. Winds Becoming South Friday Then Westerly Saturday As
Ridge Moves Off To The East And Leaves A Weak High Pressure
Circulation To The South And Southwest Of The Marine Area. Wave
Heights Generally 1 To 3 Feet Through The Period...except Briefly
Higher Near Isolated Thunderstorms...generally Early Morning To
Early Afternoon. /13

[ROLLTIDE]

Here in Mobile, we have received only 2.27" in June. We are 16.96" below normal for the year. Since January 2006, we are 32.70" below normal

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 94. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Independence Day: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[DXstorm]

Looks like some much needed rain for dry Mobile

Today: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 82. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[DXstorm]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
620 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 20 2007

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-210300-
Baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-
Escambia-escambia Inland-george-greene-mobile Inland-monroe-
Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Inland-stone-washington-wayne-
Wilcox-
620 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 20 2007

.now...

Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms Were Occurring Over
Central Sections Of Alabama And Mississippi Moving Southward Around
15 Mph. This Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms Will Be Moving Over
Inland Sections Of Southwest Alabama And Northern Sections Of
Southeast Mississippi...generally North Of A Line From Andalusia
Alabama To Lucedale Mississippi Through 800 Pm.

Other Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms Were Developing Over The
Coastal Counties Of Southwest Alabama And Northwest Florida Moving
Southward Towards The Coast At 15 Mph. Further Development Will Be
Likely Through 800 Pm.

The Main Threat With Some Of The Stronger Thunderstorms Will Be Wind
Gusts To 35 To 45 Mph...frequent Cloud To Ground Lightning...small
Hail And Very Heavy Rainfall. Isolated Cases Of Damaging Winds Will
Also Be Possible With Some Of The Stronger Storms. Stay Tuned To
Noaa Weather Radio Or Local Media Outlets If Threatening Weather I

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 020232 Aaa
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion...mesoscale Update...
National Weather Service Mobile Al
933 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 1 2007

update: Did Update Current Zones To Reflect Radar And Satellite
Trends For Clouds...qpf And Pops For The Rest Of The Evening. Sent
Them Earlier At 828 Pm.

02.00z Sfc Analysis Shows Stationary Front Over Nrn Glfmex (about 80
N Mi Offshore From S Central La To S Of Aqq To S Of Fl Big Bend).
Apparent Weak Sfc Low Is Already Located Just Of Se La Coast.

02.00z Uair Data Show A Deeply Reflected Trof From 850 Mb Along Nrn
Glfmex Coastline. Both 12 And 18 Utc Model Runs Show A Sfc Low
Forming By 18z Thu Somewhere Over E La Or Ms Coastal Waters And Then
Drifting Steadily Nwd Through Midday Fri. Pin-pointing Such A
Forecast Is Very Difficult Because Exact Location Of Sfc Low
Formation Is Unknown. What Does Appear More Certain Is That Some
Sort Of Sfc Low Will Develop. At This Point In Time...latest Uair
Data Suggest The Initial Formative Stages Of Such A Sfc Low Would Be
Within A Baroclinic Environment (hence Assoc W/vertical Wind Shear).
This Could Change Depending Upon Amount Of Assoc Convection...its
Intensity And Whether Or Not It Forms Near The Center Of The
Potential Low-level Circln. One Way Or The Other...our Focus Right
Now Is On The Potential Impacts (wind...rainfall And Tides). Did
Send An Update To Thu Nite->fri Nite Qpf To Better Reflect
Meteorological Situation. Rainfall Could Be Heavy At Times On Friday
And Friday Night (added To Updated Zfp)...accompanied By 15 To 20
Mph Winds Along The Coast (higher Offshore) Will Await Next Set Of
Model Runs And Afternoon Sref To Better Quantify Degree Of
Uncertainty. /23 Medlin

[ROLLTIDE]

807 Am Cdt Sun Aug 5 2007

.now...
Scattered Showers And A Few Thunderstorms Are Possible Along The Gulf
Coast...extending Into The Northern Gulf Waters This Morning.
Movement Is Forecast To Be Northeast At 10 To 15 Mph.

Doppler Weather Radar Suggests That A Quick Half To Possibly One Inch
Of Rain Can Fall In A One Hours Time In Some Of The Better Developed
Showers Or Thunderstorms Through 10 Am.

[ROLLTIDE]

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-071200-
Choctaw-washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-
Lower Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...chatom...
Millry...jackson...thomasville...grove Hill...camden...
Pine Hill...homewood...monroeville...evergreen...greenv ille...
Luverne...brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...
Andalusia...opp...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...
Ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...bellview...ensley...
Myrtle Grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...crestview...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso...waynesboro...richton...beaumont ...
New Augusta...leakesville...mclain...wiggins...lucedal e
940 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 6 2007

...heat Index Between 103 And 109 Degrees Tuesday Afternoon...

High Pressure Across The Region Will Continue To Keep The Area Under
A Hot And Very Humid Air Mass. The Forecast Afternoon Temperatures
On Tuesday Are In The Mid To Upper 90s With Dew Point Temperatures
In The Middle 70s Across The Entire Region. This Will Result In
Afternoon Heat Index Values Near 110 Degrees...which Is In The
Extreme Caution Category. Low Temperatures Tonight Will Fall Into
The Mid 70s Over Many Inland Sections With A Few Lower 80s Expected
Along The Immediate Coast For Overnight Minimums.

Persons Planning Being Outdoors From Late Morning Through The Late
Afternoon Hours Tomorrow Afternoon Are Urged To Consume Plenty Of
Fluids...especially Water...and To Take Frequent Breaks To Prevent
Overheating. Limit Alcoholic And Caffeinated Beverages. Children
Should Be Watched For Signs Of Heat Exhaustion If Playing
Outdoors...and The Elderly Should Frequently Be Checked On As Well.
If You Must Spend Extended Time Outdoors...wear Light Colored And
Loose Fitting Clothing. Pets Should Be Provided Plenty Of Fresh
Water And Shade...and Be Monitored Frequently

[ROLLTIDE]

512 Am Cdt Wed Aug 8 2007

...heat Advisory Now In Effect Until 7 Pm Cdt Thursday...

The Combination Of High Humidity And Hot Temperatures Will Produce
Heat Index Values Between 108 And 113 Degrees Across Most Of Inland
Southeast Mississippi...southwest Alabama And The Western Florida
Panhandle Today From Late Morning Through The Afternoon Hours.
Similar Conditions Are Expected On Thursday As Well.

A Heat Advisory Means That A Continued Period Of Hot Temperatures And
Dangerously High Heat Indices Is Expected. The Combination Of Hot
Temperatures And High Humidity Will Combine To Create A Situation In
Which Heat Illnesses Are Possible. Persons Planning On Being Outdoors
From The Late Morning Hours Through The Late Afternoon Hours Both
Today And Thursday Are Urged To Consume Plenty Of Fluids...especially
Water...and To Take Frequent Breaks To Prevent Overheating. Limit
Alcoholic And Caffeinated Beverages. Children Should Be Watched For
Signs Of Heat Exhaustion If Playing Outdoors...and The Elderly Should
Frequently Be Checked On As Well. If You Must Spend Extended Time
Outdoors...wear Light Colored And Loose Fitting Clothing. Pets Should
Be Provided Plenty Of Fresh Water An

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 107. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph becoming west.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Heat index values as high as 109. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest.

[ROLLTIDE]

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA INEFFECT....VERY HOT HUMID AIR WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL REGION INTO SUNDAY.THESE AREAS WILL SEE DAYTIME HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 110 AND 115 DEGREES.WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE COASTALSECTIONS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TONIGHT...AN EXCESSIVE HEATWARNING OR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-121300-/O.CON.KMOB.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070813T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SP ANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDTSUNDAY...CHILDREN SHOULD NOT BE OUTDOORS. THE ELDERLY AND NEIGHBORS SHOULDFREQUENTLY BE CHECKED FOR SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION. IF YOU MUST SPENDEXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.PETS AND LIVESTOCK THAT MUST BE LEFT OUTSIDE SHOULD BE PROVIDED FRESHWATER AND SHADE WITH FREQUENT MONITORING. REMEMBER THAT EMERGENCYHEAT RELIEF CAN BE FOUND BY IMMERSION IN A BATHTUB FULL OF COOLWATER.AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OFDANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOTTEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUSSITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OFFLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Heat index values as high as 106. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming southeast between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 78. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 080959
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
500 Am Cdt Sat Sep 8 2007

short Term: A Moderate To Strong North-
Northeast Wind Flow Above 400 Mb Will Persist Over The Next 24 Hours
Between H30 High Over Texas And H30 Low Just North Of Grand Bahama.
Strong Subsidence And Very Dry Air Mass In The Mid And Upper Levels
Showing Up On The Water Vapor Imagery To The West Of The Upper From
The Carolinas South Through Florida. This Dry Slot Will Expand
Westward Today And Tonight. Few To Scattered Cu Are Expected To
Form In Moist Layer Centered Around H85 Across Alabama And Northwest
Florida...with Our Inland Southeast Mississippi Counties Receiving
Periods Of Broken Ci This Am...and Broken Cu This Afternoon.
Meanwhile Surface Ridge Extending From The Atlantic Coastal States
Into The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Will Weaken Today As Subtropical
Storm Gabrielle Move Northwest Over The Western Atlantic.

Lack Of Disturbances In Zonal Flow Aloft...pw Dropping To Near One
Inch...and Mid Level Capping Under Subsidence Zone Should Hold Back
Any Shower And Thunderstorms Development Across The Eastern
Two-thirds Of The Forecast Area. Will Leave A 20-30% Chance In
Across The Western One-third Where Enough Low Level Instability Near
Pw Values Around 1.7 Inches Should Be Enough To Trigger Some
Convection. Strong Insolation And Drier Mixed Air Will Allow
Temperatures To Reach Into The Lower 90s Today...with Overnight
Falling Back Into Mid 60s To The Lower 70s Along The Coastal
Sections. /22

This Afternoon`s Wet Microburst Risk Is Low

$$

long Term: (sunday Through Friday). Mid Level Trough Moves West
Over The Fl Pen And Into The Eastern Gulf Late Sun With Drier Air
Still Advecting Southward Over Much Of The Se Conus And Central Gulf
States...generally From The Western Side Of Gabrielle. This Dry Air
Advection Will Become Cut Off Late Sun Into Mon As Bermuda High
Builds West And Remnant Mid Level Trof Over The North Central Gulf
Begins To Reflect Near The Sfc. Still Limited Detail In The Gfs And
Nam Guidance Towards The Possible Development Of A Sfc Low Centered
Over The Mid Gulf By Tue...though Rain Chances Look To Increase On
Tues Through Much Of The Week As Increased Moisture From The Gulf
Advects North As This System Slowly Tracks To The Wnw. As Mentioned
By The Day Shift Yesterday It`s Still A Little To Early To Really
Tell What Will Happen With This System By Mid Week...though With
High Pressure Building West Over Central Fl And The Eastern Gulf Sfc
Winds Will Likely Increase For Much Of The Southern Half Of The Cwfa
Late Tue Through Thu. Trop Cyclone Or Not...increased Moisture
Advection And Mixing By Mid Week Will Likely Aid In The Development
Of Widespread Precip For Much Of The Cwfa Late Tue Through Fri. Both
The Gfs And Canadian In Fair Agreement With This Pattern By Midweek
Leading Me To Go With The Current Mexmos For Temps And Precip In The
Extended Pds For Now. /32

&&

marine: A Ridge Extending From The Atlantic Coastal States Into
The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Will Weaken Today As Subtropical Storm
Gabrielle Move Northwest Over The Western Atlantic. Gabrielle Is
Then Forecast To Make Landfall Along The Outer Banks Of North
Carolina Around Midday Sunday. A Weak Inverted Trough Over The
Southeastern Gulf Will Move Slowly Northwestward Through Early Next
Week...reaching The Northern Gulf Early Tuesday. The Approaching
Trough Should Result In Increased Winds...seas And Thunderstorm
Coverages By Tuesday. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Kmob 091003
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
500 Am Cdt Sun Sep 9 2007

short Term: A Deep And Moderate Easterly To Northeasterly Wind
Flow Will Persist Through Tonight...with The Forecast Area Residing
Under The Dry Subsidence Region Of Upper Ridge. This Drier Air Will
Mix Down Throughout The Day...with Lower Afternoon Humidities
Expected. Very Warm Temperatures However Will Continue With Most
Areas Climbing Into The Lower 90s...expect Upper 80s Along The
Beaches. Pw Will Be Below 1.5 Inches And No Rain Is Forecast Through
Tonight. Overnight Lows Will Fall Back Into Mid 60s Inland To The
Lower 70s Along The Coastal Sections. /22

This Afternoon`s Wet Microburst Risk Is Low.

&&

long Term: (monday Through Saturday).by Late Mon Into Tue Deeper
Moisture Begins To Advect North Over Lower Sections Of The Cwfa Thus
Giving Way To Increasing Cloudiness And Slight Chance Pops Mon Aft
And Mon Night...followed By Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms For
Much Of The Cwfa Tues Through Sat Aft. The Best Chance Of Rain Will
Begin Along The Immediate Coast Each Morning Spreading Inland Each
Afternoon As Better Heating And Moisture Convergence Develops With
Weak Seabreeze Circulation Developing Each Afternoon. As Mentioned
By Earlier Shift Broad Mid To Upper Trof Also Digs Over The Ms River
Valley And Eastern Conus Giving Way To Better Forcing And Moisture
Advection Aloft Over Extreme Northern Sections Of The Cwfa Thu
Through Sat. A Weak Sfc Front Is Also Noted With This Upper Trof
Stalling Over Northern Sections Of Al And Ms Late Thu Into Fri. With
This Have Tweaked Forecast Pops Through The Week Somewhat Though
Remaining Mostly Scattered In Coverage Through Sat. Current Proggs
By The Gfs For Late In The Pd...sat Into Sun...depict The First Real
Cold Front For The Late Summer/fall Season. Do Believe This Colder
Air Will Eventually Push Down By Early Next Week Though Have Backed
Off On The Cooling Mainly In The Extended Grids For Sun Morning For
Now. Otherwise...will Stay Close To The Current Mexmos Temps In The
Medium To Long Range Pds For Now. /32

&&

marine: A Ridge Extending From The Southern Appalachians To The
Northern Gulf Of Mexico Will Continue To Weaken As Subtropical Storm
Gabrielle Is Expected To Move Over The Outer Banks Later Today.
Drainage Effects This Morning However Should Bring Winds Up To
Around 15 Knots With Occasional Higher Gust Again By Late
Morning...and Then Subside By Late Afternoon. A Trough Over The
Southeast Gulf Will Move Slowly Northwestward Through Early Next
Week. The Approaching Trough Will Result In Increased Winds...seas
And Thunderstorm Coverages By Midweek. /22

&&

fire Weather: Will See Rh Values Drop To The Lower 30s For
Northern Sections Of The Cwfa This Afternoon...lowering To 38 To 40
Percent Over Inland Areas Of Nwfl...also. This Will Increase The
Fire Threat For Most Inland Areas Today Though Due To Limited
Duration A Watch Or Warning Is Not Anticipated At This Time. /32

&&

[dhs62]

Tide, what does cwfa stand for? Also like when you give the weather forecast for NOLA it helps with long and short term outdoor planning. Trust you more than local weather folks. Tks

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Kmob 100954
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
553 Am Cdt Mon Sep 10 2007

short Term [today And Tonight]: High Pressure Will Weaken Over The
Southeast Conus And Central Gulf States Today And Tonight As A
Deepening Long Wave Trof Of Low Pres Moves East To The Ms River
Valley. To The South Better Moisture In The Lower Levels Of The
Atmosphere Will Begin To Advect Northward Mostly After 18z This
Afternoon Eventually Giving Way To Chance Pops For Much Of The Cwfa
After Tonight. With This Have Trimmed Pops Back Near The Coast And
Offshore Today And Tonight. Will Stay Close To The Current Metmos
For Temps Though Tonight. /32

Todays Wet Microburst Risk Is Low. /32

[tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...a Large Broad Upper Trough Will
Continue To Push South Toward The Coast Tuesday And Tuesday Night. A
Cold Front Will Push Southeast Across The Northern And Central
Portions Of Mississippi And Alabama On Tuesday...and Then Advance
Further To The Coast Tuesday Evening. The Front Is Expected To Move
Just Off The Coast Late Tuesday Night...stall...and Then Remain
Nearly Stationary Through Wednesday. The Combination Of Weak
Disturbance Moving Through The Base Of The Trough...increasing Pw
Values Near 2 Inches...and Low Level Forcing With Arrival Of Cold
Front Will Bring Scattered Thunderstorms Back To The Forecast Area
Through Mid Week. Temperatures Will Remain Slightly Above Normal
With Highs Around 90 Both Days...and Lows In The Upper 60s Inland To
The Mid 70s Along The Coast. /22

&&

long Term [thursday Through Sunday]: A Moist Deep Southwest Flow
Will Persist Thursday And Friday Between Upper Ridge Over The
Central Gulf And Deepening Trough Over The Southern Plains. Surface
Boundary Will Either Dissipate Or Gradually Retreat Northward As A
Weak Warm Front As Surface Ridge Struggles To Reassert Itself Across
The Northeast Gulf. Meanwhile...the Axis Of Southern Plains Trough
Will Approach The Forecast Area From The West Thursday And
Friday...while Fast Approaching Strong Cold Front Moves Through The
Forecast Area Friday Night. Unsettled Weather Will Remain Both
Thursday And Friday...with Scattered Thunderstorms Both Days. Much
Drier And Cooler Air Will Follow Behind The Cold Front As It Pushes
South Across The Gulf...bringing Clear Skies And Cooler Overnight
Low Temperatures To The Region Over The Weekend. /22

&&

marine: High Pressure Will Weaken Over The North Central Gulf
Through Friday As A Weakening Frontal Boundary Moves South Over The
Marine Area Tuesday Night. The Weak Frontal Boundary Will Move North
Of The Marine Area On Wednesday Giving Way To A Light West To
Southwest Wind Flow Through Friday. Northerly Winds And Seas Will
Build Over The Weekend As A Stronger Cold Front Moves South Over The
North Central Gulf. /32

&&

fire: An Unseasonably Dry Airmass Will Remain Across The Area
Again Today. Relative Humidity Values However Will Remain Above
Critical Values. Additional Moisture And Scattered Thunderstorms
Will Return Through Mid Week. /22

&&

preliminary Point Temps/pops:
Mobile 90 72 89 72 / 10 20 40 30
Pensacola 88 74 89 74 / 20 20 50 40
Destin 89 78 89 75 / 20 20 50 40
Evergreen 91 68 91 69 / 05 10 40 40
Waynesboro 92 68 91 69 / 05 10 30 30
Camden 93 68 92 69 / 05 05 30 30

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 60. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

71 right now Humidity:55 %


sweet

[ROLLTIDE]

Coastal Flood Watch

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL931 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM DESTINFLORIDA TO THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...INCLUDING THEBAYS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TOMOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY...POSSIBLY ATTAININGTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH TIME. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THESOUTHEAST...INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNINGWILL BRING THE WATER LEVELS UP ALONG THE COASTLINE AND INLANDBAYS...BEGINNING JUST BEFORE THE TIME OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EARLYSATURDAY MORNING.ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-211115-/O.CON.KMOB.CF.A.0001.070922T0600Z-070924T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-931 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.AS A GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH SATURDAYMORNING...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COASTLINE AND INLAND BAYS SHOULDBEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WATER LEVELS AREEXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AMSATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST EXPECTED WATER LEVELSWILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDELEVELS FOR SATURDAY MORNING ARE 1 TO 2 FEET...WHICH MEANS THE TOTALOBSERVED WATER LEVELS WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET.BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM...THE GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN3 AM AND NOON ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULDKEEP THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING GOING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURSON SATURDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYSUNDAY COULD BRING A SECOND PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAYMORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDEBETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM.THE PREDICTED TIDE LEVELS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPSFURTHER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELYOCCUR. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ARE URGED TOREMAIN IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING THEDEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODINGARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATERSTATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ANY NECESSARY ACTION TO PROTECT

[ROLLTIDE]

...inland Tropical Storm Warning In Effect Until 9 Pm Cdt Saturday...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued An Inland Tropical Storm Warning...which Is In Effect Until 9 Pm Cdt Saturday.

Winds Are Expected To Increase To Tropical Storm Force Later Tonight Over The Warning Area As A Subtropical Or Tropical Storm Moves To The West Just South Of Dauphin Island.

An Inland Tropical Storm Warning Means Winds Of 39 To 73 Mph Are Expected Due To A Land Falling Tropical Storm. Winds Of This Magnitude Are Likely To Cause Sporadic Power Outages... Fallen Trees...minor Property Damage...and Dangerous Driving Conditions For High Profile Vehicles.

[ROLLTIDE]

subtropical Depression Forms In The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico.

.new Information.
A Subtropical Depression Has Formed In The Northeastern Gulf Of
Mexico. A Turn To The West-northwest Is Expected During The Next 24
Hrs.with The Center Of The Depression Moving Nearly Parallel To
The Coastline Within The Warning Area This Afternoon & Tonight.

.areas Affected.
This Statement Recommends Specific Actions To Be Taken By Residents
In The Following Counties.

In Nw Fl.okaloosa.escambia & Santa Rosa Counties.

In Sw Al.baldwin & Mobile Counties.

In Se Ms.george.stone.perry & Greene
Counties.

.watches/warnings.
A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect From Apalachicola Fl
Westward To The Mouth Of The Ms River.

An Inland Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Escambia.santa
Rosa & Okaloosa Counties In Nw Fl.mobile & Baldwin
Counties In Sw Al.& Stone & George Counties In
Southeast Ms.

A Wind Advisory Is In Effect Sat For Perry & Greene Counties
In Se Ms.

.storm Information.
At 1230 Pm Cdt.eglin Air Force Base Doppler Radar Detected That
The Poorly-defined Center Of Subtropical Depression Ten Was Located
About 4o Miles West-southwest Of Port Saint Joe Fl. The
Depression Is Moving Toward The Nw Near 8 Mph. A Turn To The
West-northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 Hrs. On The Forecast
Track.the Center Of The Depression Will Be Moving Nearly Parallel
To The Coastline Within The Warning Area This Afternoon & Tonight.
Max Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph.with Higher Gusts. Some
Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hrs.& The
Depression Could Become A Subtropical Or Tropical Storm Later Today.
The Min Cntl Pressure Reported By A Reconnaissance Aircraft
Was 1004 Mb.29.65 Inches.

.precautionary/preparedness Actions.
Residents In The Warned Area Of Nw Fl.southwest
Al.& Se Ms Need To Complete Preparations
This Afternoon. People Residing In Fema Trailers Along The Immediate
Coastal Sections Need To Seek Safer Shelter. Take Action Now To
Secure Property.especially Beach Front Homes & Boats. Stay Tuned
To Local Radio & Television For Details For The Latest Evacuation
Information.

.storm Surge Flood & Storm Tide.
Based On The Latest Forecast Track & Speed.max Storm Tide
Heights Could Reach 3 To 5 Feet In Some Areas. As The Storm Moves
West.the Max Storm Tides Will Effect The Destin & Fort
Walton Beach Areas This Evening.& The Santa Rosa Island Area
Around Midnight.& The Coastal Sections Of Baldwin & Mobile.
Including Mobile Bay.early Sat Morning. The High Astronomical
Tides Are Forecast To Occur Around Sunrise Sat Morning.

.winds.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Occur Mainly Along & To The South
Of Interstate-10. The Winds Will Begin Across S. Okaloosa And
Southern Santa Rosa Counties This Evening.southern Escambia
Fl & S. Baldwin Counties Around Midnight.& Southern
Mobile County By Daybreak. Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Also
Occur Early Sat Across Stone & George Counties Of Southeast
Ms. The Tropical Storm Force Winds Are Expected To Exit The
Warned Area By Sat Evening.

A Wind Advisory Is Also In Effect Sat For Perry & Greene
Counties In Se Ms For Winds Possibly Reaching
Sustained Speed Of 30 To 35 Mph Early Sat & Diminishing By
Saturday Evening.

.tornadoes.
Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over The Western Fl
Panhandle.southwest Al.& The Inland Portions Of Southeast
Ms Through Sat Afternoon.

.rip Currents.
There Is A High Risk Of Rip Currents Along The Al & Northwest
Fl Beaches Through The Weekend Due To High Winds & Waves. Rip
Currents Are Life-threatening To Anyone Entering The Surf.

.high Surf/beach Erosion.
Minor Beach Erosion Is Expected To Occur From Destin Fl To the
West End Of Dauphin Island.

.rainfall Totals.
Rainfall Accumulation Of One To Two Inches Are Expected.with
Isolated Amounts Of Three To Four Inches With This System.

.next Update.
The Next Local Statement Will Be Issued At 530 Pm Or Sooner If
Necessary.

[ROLLTIDE]

Scattered Showers And A Few Isolated Thunderstorms Continue To
Develop Over Most Areas Of Northwest Florida And Southwest Alabama
Moving Southwest At 20 Mph. Wind Gusts To 40 Mph...occasional Cloud
To Ground Lightning And Isolated Tornadoes Will Be The Main Threat
With Some Of The Heavier Showers Or Thunderstorms. Most Of The
Heaviest Precipitation Will Be East Of The I-65 Corridor In Alabama
Through 4 Pm.

[ROLLTIDE]

Tornado Watch Outline Update For Wt 683
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
1010 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 21 2007

Tornado Watch 683 Is In Effect Until 600 Am Cdt For The
Following Locations

Alc001-003-005-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-
061-067-069-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-113-123-129-131-
221100-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0683.070922t0310z-070922t1100z/

Al
. Alabama Counties Included Are

Autauga Baldwin Barbour
Bullock Butler Chambers
Clarke Coffee Conecuh
Covington Crenshaw Dale
Dallas Elmore Escambia
Geneva Henry Houston
Lee Lowndes Macon
Mobile Monroe Montgomery
Pike Russell Tallapoosa
Washington Wilcox

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 75. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 73. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm. Cloudy early, then clearing, with a high near 83. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 52. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind around 5 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

STRONG WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES TO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS BEING EVALUATED AT THIS TIME. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST
OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION

[ROLLTIDE]

Now...
Through 9 Am...a Large Area Of Showers And Embedded Thunderstorms
Continues To Move Inland Across Southwest Alabama...southeast
Mississippi And The Western Florida Panhandle. Additional Rainfall
Amounts Near The Coast Will Be Up To Around An Inch While Amounts
Further Inland Will Generally Be Around Half An Inch. Occasional
Cloud To Ground Lightning And Wind Gusts Up To 35 Mph Can Be Expected
With Some Of The Stronger Storms. The Thunderstorms Were Moving North

[ROLLTIDE]

alc097-222300-
537 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 22 2007

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued An

* Urban & Small Stream Flood Advisory For Minor Flooding Of Poor
Drainage Areas In.
S. Mobile County In Sw Al.
This Includes The City Of Downtown Mobile.

* Until 600 Pm Cdt

* At 537 Pm Cdt.numerous Showers & A Few Embedded Thunderstorms
Will Continue Moving No. At 20 To 25 Mph Across Portions Of
Southern & Cntl Mobile County Of Extreme Sw Al.
Widespread Rainfall Estimates Of One To Two Inches.with Up To
Three Inches Locally Have Already Fallen Across Extreme Southern
Mobile County.

Rainfall Rates Of Around One Inch Every Hour Will Occur As These
Showers & Storms Move Over The Advisory Area. Additional Rainfall
Amounts Of One To Two Inches Is Possible Through 645 Pm Cdt. This
Ponding Of Water May Result In Hazardous Driving For Motorists
During The Late Evening Hrs Until The Nusiance Flooding Ends.

Excessive Runoff From Heavy Rainfall Will Cause Elevated Levels On
Small Creeks & Streams.& Ponding Of Water In Urban Areas.
Highways.streets & Underpasses As Well As Other Poor Drainage
Areas & Low Lying Spots.

To Report Flooding.have The Nearest Law Enforcement Agency Relay
Your Report To The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office.

[ROLLTIDE]

Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1204 Am Cdt Tue Oct 23 2007
The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A
* Flood Warning For...
Monroe...wilcox...baldwin...and Mobile Counties In Southwest
Alabama...
* Until 600 Am Cdt
* At Midnight Cdt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar
Continues To Indicate Moderate To Heavy Rain From Numerous Showers
And Scattered Thunderstorms That Will Continue To Move Northeast
Across The Warned Area Overnight. Radar Rainfall Estimates
Indicate Widespread Areas Of 1 To 3 Inches Of Rain Had Already
Fallen Across Portions Of Southwest Alabama Through The Afternoon
And Evening Hours. Some Isolated Locations Have Received As Much
As 4 Inches.
* Thunderstorms Producing Very Heavy Rain Will Occur Around...
Camden...monroeville...tensaw And The Mobile Metro Area Through
600 Am Cdt...
Experts At The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Located In Camp
Springs Maryland...and Short Term Model Data Suggest Additional
Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible In The Warned Area As
Storms Continue Through The Overnight Hours.
Excessive Runoff From Heavy Rainfall Will Cause Flooding Of Small
Creeks And Streams...highways And Underpasses. Additionally...country
Roads And Farmlands Along The Banks Of Creeks...streams And Other Low
Lying Areas Are Subject To Flooding.
Be Especially Cautious At Night When It Is Harder To Recognize The
Dangers Of Flooding. If Flash Flooding Is Observed Act Quickly. Move
Up To Higher Ground To Escape Flood Waters. Do Not Stay In Areas
Subject To Flooding When Water Begins Rising.
Most Flood Deaths Occur In Automobiles. Never Drive Your Vehicle Into
Areas Where The Water Covers The Roadway. Flood Waters Are Usually
Deeper Than They Appear. Just One Foot Of Flowing Water Is Powerful
Enough To Sweep Vehicles Off The Road. When Encountering Flooded
Roads Make The Smart Choice...turn Around...dont Drown.
To Report Flooding...have The Nearest Law Enforcement Agency Relay
Your Report To The National Weather Service Forecast Office In
Mobile.
Lat...lon 3228 8743 3205 8719 3206 8686 3176 8693
3165 8712 3129 8740 3124 8761 3086 8763
3044 8737 3028 8776 3065 8795 3069 8803
3033 8813 3040 8842 3111 8842 3115 8794
3145 8756 3183 8750 3185 8762 3201 8767
Time...mot...loc 0504z 232deg 6kt 3173 8763 3037 8845
$$
Jp

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL447 AM CST TUE NOV 6 2007ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061900-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...MILLRY...J ACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAS T BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SP ANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...F ERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT ...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDAL E447 AM CST TUE NOV 6 2007...COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...BEHIND A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TODAY...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVEOVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AREEXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 35 DEGREES NORTH OF A JANICE...MISSISSIPPI TO VAUGHN...ALABAMA TO FLORALA...ALABAMA LINE.TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LINE TONEAR THE GULF COAST. A FEW LOCALS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING TONEAR 32 DEGREES...MAINLY OVER AREAS STRETCHING FROM WAYNE COUNTY...MISSISSIPPI TO CRENSHAW COUNTY...ALABAMA...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BEFEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER THIRTIES OVERNORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FREEZE WATCHISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMNPWMOB FORMORE INFORMATION.PERSONS ARE URGED TO PROTECT TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS AND PROVIDEPROTECTIVE SHELTER FOR PETS AND OUTSIDE ANIMALS

[ROLLTIDE]

CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
541 AM CST WED NOV 7 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. MORE THAN FOUR HOURS OF LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

[ROLLTIDE]

down to 40 already

[ROLLTIDE]

Rest Of Today...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

Wednesday...Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday...Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the upper 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night...Clear...colder. Lows in the upper 30s.

[ROLLTIDE]

425 AM CST WED NOV 14 2007

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING.

COOL TEMPS.LIGHT WINDS & A MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SURFACE VISIBILITY HAS DECREASED TO A FOURTH OF A MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS. AT 4 AM.ONE FOURTH OF A MILE VISIBILITY WAS BEING REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 65 FROM GREENVILLE TO EVERGREEN & IN THE CRESTVIEW & PENSACOLA BEACH AREAS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POOR VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS OVER SE MS AND SOUTHWEST AL.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE FOG COVERS AN EXTENSIVE AREA IT IS PATCHY IN PLACES & THE VISIBILITY WILL DROP QUICKLY IN A SHORT DISTANCE. IN ADDITION. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME SEVERELY RESTRICTED NEAR RIVERS.LAKES. BRIDGES.& LOW LYING AREAS.

[ROLLTIDE]

down to 35 F

[ROLLTIDE]

Down to 39 last night

[ROLLTIDE]

Wheres the rain ?

[T-man in Lafitte]

It never made it to my house either. I guess we have to wait until Sunday now.

[Alex]

Thanksgiving of 2003 had 0.32 inches of rain with showers all afternoon/evening with embedded thunderstorms. I was listening to the tape I have from that day and was reminded of the one random crash of thunder that day that was near the house in Mobile!

[ROLLTIDE]

down to 38 now with precip moving back in

[ROLLTIDE]

39 this morning with severe weather on the way for sunday :)

[ROLLTIDE]

Down to 35 this morning :)

[ROLLTIDE]

Dense Fog adv will be needed

[ROLLTIDE]

Dense fog advisory issued :)

[ROLLTIDE]

dense Fog Advisory In Effect Tonight Across Portions Of Interior
Southeast Ms.southwest Al & The Western Fl
Panhandle.

.a Lingering Light Southerly Wind Flow Off The Gulf Will Result In
The Development Of Widespread Low Clouds & Dense Fog Across The
Region Tonight. Visibilities In Many Locations Will Fall Below One
Quarter Of A Mile For Several Hrs Beginning This Evening.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-090600-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0018.071209t0300z-071209t1600z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
335 Pm Cst Sat Dec 8 2007

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 10 Am
Cst Sunday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog
Advisory.which Is In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 10 Am Cst
Sunday.

A Light Southerly Wind Flow Off The Gulf Will Result In The
Development Of Widespread Low Clouds & Dense Fog Across The Region
Tonight. Visibilities In Many Locations Will Fall Below One Quarter
Of A Mile For Several Hrs Beginning This Evening.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be
Reduced To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down.use
Your Low Beam Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of
You. Motorists Should Allocate Extra Time To Safely Reach Their
Destinations Tonight. Inexperienced Mariners.especially Those
Operating Smaller Vessels Without Navigational Radar.should Avoid
Boating In These Conditions.

[ROLLTIDE]

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Patchy dense fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Isolated showers. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Alex]

Very dense fog last night in Baldwin and Escambia, Florida. By the time I got out of the car, vis. was down to 0.25/mile.

[ROLLTIDE]

More fog :(

[Alex]

Welcome to Winter! When will the next pile-up occur on the Bayway? Before the Katrina-destroyed fog message boards are repaired?

[ROLLTIDE]

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 AM CST MON DEC 24 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. ALOFT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS...HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEAK OVERRUNNING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERRUNNING) MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WENT WITH THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT A TAD COOLER THAN THE MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) 5-WAVE PROG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PROG) SHOWS
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WHICH WILL FAVOR SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SUPPORTS THE WARMER SOLUTION OF THE LAST
FEW GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) RUNS AS EJECTING SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BRING STRONG
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND ALLOWS A SYSTEM TO BRING A COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH OVERNIGHT
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
LATER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A 500 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY
FORECAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EJECTS OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF). THE SOUTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL ADD
SMALL POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO THE WESTERN MOST ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MEANWHILE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY THEN EJECTS OUT
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES MANAGE
TO BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN
STALLS...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) WITH SHORTWAVES
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THE LAST SYSTEM OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND BRINGS A STRONG COLD
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME MILD BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING
THOUGH REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AND A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE TWENTIES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE RED FLAG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RED FLAG) WARNING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) FOR TODAY AND
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR THIS AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD WHICH WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. /29

[ROLLTIDE]

We had sleet this morning and 40 :)

[ROLLTIDE]

arctic Airmass Will Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Region On New
Year`s Day.

.a Few Hrs Of Widespread Freezing Temps Are Expected By
Wednesday Morning.

.a Prolonged Hard Freeze With Temps In The Teens To Lwr
20s Is Possible Wed Night & Thur Morning.

.a Strong Cold Front Will Move Se Across The Cntl Gulf
Coast Region Late Tonight.with Blustery Nw Winds Expected
Behind The Front For New Year`s Day. Strong Arctic High Pressure
Building In The Wake Of The Front Will Bring In Some Significantly
Cold Air Through Thursday.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-010515-
/o.new.kmob.hz.a.0001.080103t0400z-080103t1500z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
336 Pm Cst Mon Dec 31 2007

.hard Freeze Watch In Effect From Late Wed Evening Through
Thursday Morning.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Hard Freeze
Watch.which Is In Effect From Wed Evening Through
Thursday Morning.

Temps Tues Night & Wed Morning Will Drop Into The
Lwr To Middle 20s For A Few Hrs Across Many Inland Areas.with
Upper 20s To Lwr 30s Forecasted Along The Coast. With Blustery
North Winds.wind Chill Values Tues Night & Early Wednesday
Morning Will Likely Fall Into The Single Digits To Middle Teens For
Several Areas. The Blustery No. Winds Will Weaken During The Day
On Thursday. However With A Very Dry Airmass In Place.temps
Will Quickly Fall Below Freezing Over The Inland Areas After 9 Pm
Wednesday Night.& Will Drop Into The Middle Teens To Lwr 20s
Across Many Inland Areas Early Thur Morning With Middle 20s
Along The Immediate Coastline. Much Of The Area Could See
Temps In The Lwr To Middle 20s For More Than 5 Hrs Late
Wednesday Through Early Thursday.

The Hard Freeze Watch Means Sub-freezing Temps Are Possible
For Several Hrs Wed Night Into Thur Morning. These
Conditions Could Kill Crops & Other Cold Sensitive Vegetation.
Temps Such As These Can Cause Exposed Water Pipes To Burst.
Make Plans To Check On Elderly Neighbors To Make Sure They Have
Adequate Heat. Area Shelters Should Make Preparations For Extra
Demand. Everyone Should Take Adequate Safety Precautions With Their
Heating Systems.& Make Sure To Utilize Carbon Monoxide Detectors
In Enclosed Spaces. Extra Caution Should Be Used With Portable
Space Heaters. Make Sure Space Heaters Are Not Left Unattended And
Are Not Used Near Flammable Materials Such As Curtains Or Bed
Coverings.

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.wind Advisory In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 9 Am Cst
Sunday For The Immediate Coastal Sections.

.hard Freeze Watch In Effect From Late Sat Night Through
Sunday Morning For Inland Areas.

.an Area Of Low Pressure Will Develop Over The Western Gulf This
Evening & Move Ne Across The N. Gulf Late Tonight Into
Saturday. A Strong Northerly Wind Flow Is Expected Along The Coastal
Sections In The Wake Of The Passing Low Over The Weekend.with
Sustained Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph With Higher Gusts Along The Immediate
Coast. A Strong Cold Front Will Move Se Across The Cntl Gulf
Coast In The Wake Of The Low. Blustery Northerly Winds Are Expected
Behind The Front On Saturday. Strong Arctic High Pressure Building
In The Wake Of The Front Will Bring In Some Significantly Cold Air
Saturday
Night Into Sun Morning.

[ROLLTIDE]

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Periods of rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 39. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday: Rain likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 53. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[ROLLTIDE]

.THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.

.AN INCREASING SO. TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS LIKELY REACHING 15 TO 25 MPH LATE TODAY & TONIGHT. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

[ROLLTIDE]

high Surf Warning In Effect Until 7 Pm Cdt Wednesday...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A High Surf
Warning...which Is In Effect Until 7 Pm Cdt Wednesday.

[ROLLTIDE]

a Freeze Warning Is Now In Effect From Late Tonight Into Tuesday
Morning.

.clear Skies & Diminishing Winds Will Allow Excellent Cooling
Tonight As High Pressure Moves Over The Area. Temps Are
Expected To Drop Below Freezing For Around 4 Hrs.especially In
The Normally Colder Locations No. Of Interstate 10 In Al And
Northwest Fl. Locations In Interior Se Ms Are
Also Expected To Experience Below Freezing Temps For Around 4
Hrs.

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-250300-
/o.upg.kmob.fz.a.0002.080325t0600z-080325t1300z/
/o.new.kmob.fz.w.0004.080325t0700z-080325t1300z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-inland Escambia-
Inland Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-wayne-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.century.
Flomaton.molino.jay.crestview.waynesboro.richton.
Beaumont.new Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.
Lucedale
146 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 24 2008

.freeze Warning In Effect From 2 Am To 8 Am Cdt Tuesday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Freeze
Warning.which Is In Effect From 2 Am To 8 Am Cdt Tuesday. The
Freeze Watch Has Been Replaced By The Freeze Warning.

Temps Over The Watch Area Are Expected To Fall Below Freezing
After Midnight Tonight.with Areas No. Of A Waynesboro.chatom.
Brewton To Crestview Line Having The Longest Duration Of Temps
Below Freezing. Temps Closer To The Coast Will Likely Only
See A Few Hrs Of Temps Below Freezing With The Beaches And
Barrier Islands Remaining Above Freezing.


A Freeze Warning Means Sub-freezing Temps Are Imminent Or
Highly Likely. These Conditions Will Damage Or Kill Sensitive Crops
And Tropical Plants That Normally Spend The Winter Indoors. Those
That Have Already Started Their Home Vegetable Gardens May Want To
Cover Or Protect Their Gardens.

[ROLLTIDE]

Including the counties of:
Lower Mobile, Lower Baldwin, Coastal Escambia

Including the cities of:
Mobile, Gulf Shores, Pensacola

Effective: 357 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008

***DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING***

TODAY:Partly sunny. Areas of dense fog early in the morning. highs in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT:Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY:Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT:Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
SATURDAY:Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

[ROLLTIDE]

Seems like every 3 years we get a huge rain event and already this morning 10 inches plus has fallen and rescues are underway

[ROLLTIDE]

500 AM CDT SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) APR 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...INTENSE RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) OVERNIGHT FOR SOME FOLKS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. NEARLY
CONTINUOUS RAIN TRAINED OVER THE SAME AREA FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY
OF A PERSISTENT SHALLOW SW-NE ORIENTATED BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...WITH GULF MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM BY A LOW
LEVEL JET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) OVER-RUNNING THE BOUNDARY LAYER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY LAYER). AREA RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) REPORTS AND
RADAR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) ESTIMATES INDICATE WIDESPREAD THREE TO SIX
INCHES...WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF SEVEN TO TEN INCHES. REPORTS OF
FLOODING...WITH SOME EVACUATIONS AND STRANDED VEHICLES CONTINUE TO
COME IN.

THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. MANY DAILY RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) RECORDS WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE EXCEEDED
TODAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WITH THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE
DAY...I GENERALLY WENT WITH THE 2M NAM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) TEMPS...OR ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DEGREES BELOW MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUID FOR TODAY MAXIMUM

[ROLLTIDE]

bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile Al
814 Am Cdt Sat Apr 5 2008
814 Am Cdt Sat Apr 5 2008

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A

* Flood Warning For Urban Areas And Small Streams In...
Northern Escambia County In Northwest Florida...
Central Baldwin County In Southwest Alabama...
This Includes The City Of Bay Minette...
Mobile County In Southwest Alabama...
This Includes The Mobile Metro Area...

* Until 1215 Pm Cdt

* At 814 Am Cdt National Weather Service Radar Showed Estimated
Rainfall Totals Of 7 To Near 11 Inches Of Rainfall From Central
Mobile County Eastward Across Central Baldwin County Into Northern
Escambia County Florida. The Back Edge Of Heavy Rain Was Moving
Across Southern Mobile County...and Was Persisting Across Central
Baldwin County And Northern Escambia County Florida. An Additional
2 Inches Of Rainfall Are Possible Across Portions Of Central baldwin
County And Northern Escambia Florida. The Heavy Rains Will Soon End
Across Central Mobile County...however Excessive Runoff Of Heavy
Rains Will Persist This Morning.

A Flood Warning Means That Flooding Is Imminent Or Has Been Reported.
All Interested Parties Should Take Necessary Precautions Immediately.

Most Flood Deaths Occur In Automobiles. Never Drive Your Vehicle Into
Areas Where The Water Covers The Roadway. Flood Waters Are Usually
Deeper Than They Appear. Just One Foot Of Flowing Water Is Powerful
Enough To Sweep Vehicles Off The Road. When Encountering Flooded
Roads Make The Smart Choice...turn Around...dont Drown.

To Report Flooding...have The Nearest Law Enforcement Agency Relay
Your Report To The National Weather Service Forecast Office.

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 010959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE COMING EVENT...WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL US ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING AND A SURFACE LOW STARTING OVER
THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THIS UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES TO OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD WITH. THERE IS SOME
ORGANIZATION/DEEPENING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SPEED ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE HIGH WINDS MEANS
MORE SPREADING INLAND OF THE DAY-TIME COOLER/NIGHT-TIME WARMER
MARINE AIR. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/MET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MET)
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE COAST (MORE AN MORE INLAND THE FARTHER WEST
ONE GOES (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GOES) DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT))...THE WARMER GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)
NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). /16

&&

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SURFACE RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING
FROM CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT
ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RESIDES. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PICKS UP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES
MAXIMIZING NEAR 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BREAKS DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). WHILE THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WE HAVE THE FORECAST
AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 0-1KM HELICITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY) VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2)...AND MUCAPES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT WHERE PROLONGED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD
WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 021009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WILL STEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL ALSO PUMP DEEP MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES CLIMBING FROM 1.06 INCHES ON
LAST NIGHT 00Z KLIX SOUNDING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY THIS EVENING. A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) COMBINED TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
TO SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP) NEAR 750 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) KEEP MOST DEVELOPMENT
AT BAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS LOCATED AND CAPPING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPPING) IS
WEAKER. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DURING THE DAY AND THAT LINE WILL APPROACH
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDY SKIES AND A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST. /13

&&

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...ONGOING SQUALL LINE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE)
ENTERING OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES WILL ADVANCE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DYNAMICS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER MUCAPE
VALUES COMING IN LESS IMPRESSIVE (1000-1500 J/KG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)) LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) DUE TO
STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE RESULTING IN A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY LAYER). 0-1KM
HELICITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY) VALUES MAXIMIZE AROUND 200 M2/S2 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND PULSING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ROTATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH
RESULTING IN STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT WHERE
PROLONGED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INTRODUCED ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
PRECIP LATE IN THE FORECAST AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER
SHORTWAVES MOVES EAST IN ZONAL FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL FLOW). /22

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLIER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW...ALSO
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NWRN TEXAS...TO MOVE TO WESTERN KY/TN AREA BY
LATE THU...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MS/AL THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) LIFT WELL NE OF
OUR AREA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...DEEPER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL POOL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) ALONG THE
SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BOUNDARY...AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING...MOST OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD WEATHER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AL
AND MS. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT RISK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) OF SVR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) STORMS ADVERTISED FOR
THU...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO...MONROEVILLE...
LUVERNE LINE. THE VERY LATEST OUTLOOK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK) FROM SPC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) BRINGS THIS OUTLOOK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK)
AREA SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...RUNNING MORE OR LESS EAST TO
WEST FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA PANHANDLE BORDER TO NEAR HATTIESBURG
MS. THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) EARLIER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY...WITH SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE SOUTH
TOWARD THE COAST. THE PRIMARY SVR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) THREAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LARGE HAIL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) (500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -13C OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES) AND
DAMAGING WINDS (850MB IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=KNOT) RANGE OVER OUR AREA).
THERE WILL BE SOME LOLVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) AS WELL...SO AN ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
TORNADO (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO) IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER MS AND AL ZONES WEST OF I-65 BY MID/LATE
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) (BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGE)
AND SPREADING EAST OF I-65 IN ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE SCALE) DYNAMICS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) WELL TO THE
NORTH...SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST)
AREA...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON
OUTFLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW) BOUNDARIES...SEA BREEZE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA BREEZE) INTERACTIONS AND OTHER MESOSCALE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE)
FACTORS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) AND EARLY SUNSHINE...WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
HAVE SOME GOOD MIXING TOMORROW RESULTING IN A RATHER BREEZY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT 10 TO
20 MPH WINDS INTERIOR AND 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE
DID NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVSY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) PACKAGE AS IT
APPEARS TO BE BORDERLINE...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED
LATER TONIGHT. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/MS
WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRI-DAT...WITH ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NRN HALF OF OUR AREA. WARMER TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST). STILL LOOKING AT WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
TELL...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...STAY TUNED. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN AND YET
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. 12/DS

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

.SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING TO
VIRGINIA TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR 850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) AND
DRY AIR DUE TO SURFACE TO 850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) RIDGING OVER THE AREA TRANSITIONS
TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY MIDDAY AS THE RIDGING RETREATS
AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE RETREATING RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND SURFACE BASED CAPES...2500 J/KG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)...WILL BE
PRESENT. 850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS TODAY WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITIES INCREASING TO 300-350 M2/S2 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) OVER THE INLAND PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHEAR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) AND INSTABILITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) DECREASE TOWARDS THE
COAST BUT ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH CAPES OF 1200 J/KG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AND 0-3 KM
HELICITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY) OF 180 M2/S2 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2)...BUT THE RETREATING RIDGING ALSO LEAVES WARM
TEMPERATURES NEAR 800 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) WHICH WILL ACT TO BLOCK CONVECTIVE
PARCELS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL LIKEWISE BE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SPC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH MATCHES
THESE PARAMETERS WELL...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL)
AND DAMAGING WINDS. POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT CHANCE) TOWARDS THE
COAST IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER LIFT LOCATED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND THE TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TO BE CAPPED
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS TODAY. /29

(FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...THE UPPER FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE). THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
THUNDERSTORM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. /13

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WERE MAINTAINED. THERE WILL
AGAIN BE A THREAT OF STRONG STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) BECOMES
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS THE COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES. /

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 090914
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NW GA TO WEST CENTRAL AL PROGGED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO
ZONAL FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL FLOW) ALOFT AND STRONG HIGH PRES (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES) TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT FOR
TODAY EXPECTED REMNANT SHOWERS TO THE N AND NE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATER THIS MORNING WITH SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TO H8 RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) BUILDING WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) NEAR THE
SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TODAY MOSTLY LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BECOMING ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO A GOOD SEABREEZE EFFECT FROM WARMER TEMPS INLAND (UPPER 80S)
AND NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 75F. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADIENT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) RELAXING LATE TONIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED BY BOTH THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND
NAM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)
POSSIBLE NEAR WEAK SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED NORTH EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) ALOFT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. CURRENT MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT.
/32

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FIVE WAVE SCALE SHOWS A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) ON SATURDAY WHICH TRANSITIONS
INTO A TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE QUICK
GENERATION OF LEE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LEE) TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) CYCLOGENESIS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) WITH MORE OF A DRY PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN THIS PATTERN LEFT A STALLED
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. THE
SURFACE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND A SEA BREEZE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA BREEZE) FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL GENERATE ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL). CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
OCCLUDES WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). SPC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ALL BUT THE
COASTAL PORTIONS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT IS
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT DURING WHICH THE 850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) JET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) ATTAINS 40 KNOTS
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES RISING TO AROUND 200 M2/S2 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2). SURFACE BASED
CAPES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1100 J/KG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). THESE PARAMETERS INCREASE
SOMEWHAT DURING SUNDAY AS THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES THROUGH...PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SEVERE CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). THE
RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) MAINLY STARTS SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO 850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)
RIDGING WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND TENDING TO CAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP)
CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...HENCE THE ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE
DEEP SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE PLAINS. ALL MODELS STAY DRY SUNDAY NIGHT SO
REMOVED POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS) WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE TERTIARY SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) RETURN
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

732 Am Cdt Fri May 16 2008

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued An

* Urban & Small Stream Flood Advisory For.
S. Mobile County In Sw Al.

* Until 830 Am Cdt

* At 732 Am Cdt.doppler Weather Radar Showed A Cluster Of Strong
Thunderstorms Over The Ms Sound. Additional Thunderstorms
Were Ongoing Over The S. Portions Of Mobile County From grand
Bay To Bayou La Batre. The Storms Over The Ms Sound Will Be
Moving Ne Over Already Rain Soaked Areas Through 830 Am.

Doppler Weather Radar Suggests That 2 To 2.5 Inches Has Already Fallen
Over S. Mobile County.

Additional Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches Are Possible In The
Advised Area.

Most Flood Deaths Occur In Automobiles. Never Drive Your Vehicle Into
Areas Where The Water Covers The Roadway. Flood Waters Are Usually
Deeper Than They Appear. Just One Foot Of Flowing Water Is Powerful
Enough To Sweep Vehicles Off The Road. When Encountering Flooded
Roads Make The Smart Choice.turn Around.don`t Drown.

Lat.lon 3031 8813 3037 8825 3036 8833 3038 8835
3036 8836 3035 8841 3063 8841 3062 8806
3059 8808
Time.mot.loc 1232z 238deg 49kt 3058 8846 3032 8847
3004 8859 2976 8884

[ROLLTIDE]

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
458 AM CDT SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUN 7 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DEEP LAYER RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. UNDER THE RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) THE AIR WARMS AS IT SINKS AND THIS WILL AGAIN
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. WARM MID LEVELS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PCPN (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
WERE OBSERVED ON THE 00Z KTLH SOUNDING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) AND WHERE BOUNDARIES ARE LEFT
OVER FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 13/JC

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY...THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS GRIP ON WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY 500 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) HEIGHTS FALL AS MID/UPPER
RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAK TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) BUILDS ALOFT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S) AFTER A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPS. THE
WEAK TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AS SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE REGION. A WEAK
SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) DROP DOWN INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE IT STALLS AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ENTER THE FORECAST
NEXT WEEK AS THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL) RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) BEGINS TO WEAKEN. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
RIDGING MAINTAINS HOT...HUMID AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE WEATHER PATTERN.
MID/UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) EXPECTED EACH
DAY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT LOLVL MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE 45
PERCENT. 12/DS

[ROLLTIDE]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
436 Am Cdt Wed Jun 11 2008

Alz061>064-flz001>006-gmz630-650-655-670-675-111200-
Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-
Inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-mobile Bay-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms From 20 To 60 Nm-
Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-
Including The Cities Of...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...
Ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...bellview...ensley...
Myrtle Grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...crestview...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso
436 Am Cdt Wed Jun 11 2008

.now...
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Were Becoming More Numerous Just
Before Day Break. The Showers And Thunderstorms Were Just South Of
The Entrance To Mobile Bay From The West End Of Dauphin Island To
Near Gulf Shores. Another Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms Were South
Of Choctawhatchee Bay. The Thunderstorms Were Drifting Northerly And
Should Be Moving Across Dauphin Island And Into Southern Mobile And
Baldwin Counties As Well As Mobile Bay Before Sunrise. Early Morning
Boaters And Beach Combers Should Be On The Alert For Lightning
Strikes And Brief Heavy Rain And Gusty Winds

[ROLLTIDE]

Now...
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Were Developing Along The Coast
Of Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle Moving Southward Or Offshore
At 5 To 10 Mph. Frequent Cloud To Ground Or Water Lightning Strikes...wind
Gusts To 30 Mph And Periods Of Very Heavy Rain Will Likely Accompany
The Stronger Thunderstorms Through The Morning Hours.

Showers And Thunderstorms Will Become More Intense And Numerous At
Times Over Inland Areas Of Alabama And Northwest Florida Later This
Morning And This Afternoon...and Move Southward Towards Coast And
Offshore. Stay Tuned To Noaa Weather Radio Or Local Media Outlets If
Threatening Is Approaching Your Area

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 181008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...WE NOTE A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PATTERN
TODAY FOR THE MID JUNE TIME-FRAME ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS MORNING WE SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE GULF
COAST. THAT FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) STALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING A DRIER (ALTHOUGH NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER) AIRMASS TO THE REGION. AT LEAST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE TODAY...EVEN THOUGH OUR
FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AT
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. DRY AIRMASSES THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE...AND WITH DEEP LAYERED DRYING
ALOFT (PW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1 INCH OVER THE INLAND AREAS)...WE
EXPECT LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AND RH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. ON THE
FLIP SIDE...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS WE CAN EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S MOST INLAND AREAS AS WELL.
DEEP LAYERED DRYING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY
TODAY EXCEPT WELL OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /05

&&

.LONG TERM...MID TO UPPER TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT ON THU THUS GIVING WAY TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THU AND CLEAR SKIES THU
NIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATIONAL COOLING) BY EARLY FRI MORNING. AS
A RESULT EXPECT WARM DRY CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 60 TO 65 INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS
DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND OKALOOSA
CO FL AND COVINGTON CO IN AL. BY FRI MID TO UPPER TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DIGS AGAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING SE
ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) COULD
BE QUITE STRONG OR SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SHIFTING SOUTH TO THE AL AND
NWFL COAST BY LATE SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
MOSTLY IN A SE DIRECTION TOWARDS THE COAST. BY LATE SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) NIGHT INTO
SUN UPPER TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST RESULTING IN BETTER
LIFT OR OMEGAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALSO NOTED AT NEAR SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) IN THE WAKE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND PROGGED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
BY 12Z MON. LATEST GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLUTION DEPICTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INLAND BY MON AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) SETTING UP
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MS LATE
MON THROUGH TUES. CURRENT GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLUTION ALSO SPINS UP A WEAK LOW
ALONG THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BY MON EVE RESULTING IN SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON EVE. AS THE WEAK
BOUNDARY RETREATS FURTHER INLAND ON TUE THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NW OVER SE MS RESULTING IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. DEEPER RETURN FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALSO
BECOME REESTABLISHED BY TUE RESULTING IN A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PD (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEXMOS
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI TO
TENNESSEE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH THIS PATTERN BEING FORECASTED...EXPECT THE NORTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO LAY DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN GO
MORE WESTERLY OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE WITH
A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) SETTING UP. INLAND TEMPS GETTING INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEABREEZE ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR SHORE/INSHORE WATERS THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING FOR TODAY. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
OUR OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES CLOSER TO THE DEEP MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. /05


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 93 64 91 68 / 05 05 00 05
PENSACOLA 93 69 91 71 / 10 05 00 05
DESTIN 91 71 89 72 / 10 05 00 05
EVERGREEN 92 60 90 60 / 00 05 00 05
WAYNESBORO 92 60 90 65 / 05 05 05 05
CAMDEN 91 59 91 61 / 00 05 05 05

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 191006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PROGGED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT EAST AND
BECOME REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH A
WEAK SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BOUNDARY WAS NOTED JUST SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH CLOUDS) TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MOST AREAS TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
TONIGHT EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATIONAL COOLING) FOR THE MOST
PART...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE
CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BY AROUND 12Z FRI. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE
WITH FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

/32

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...WE START TO SEE THE
BEGINNINGS OF A PATTERN CHANGE LOCALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT MOVES
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. WE CARRY CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA GIVEN LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FARTHER
TO THE EAST. BY SATURDAY WE SEE A DEEPENING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) TO THE
WEST FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH BOTH THE
GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) DEPICTING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ACROSS OUR AREA
FOR SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). GIVEN DECENT
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR
SATURDAY...WE BUMPED POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR SATURDAY UP INTO THE LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) CATEGORY
ON THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...THEN WE NOTE A SLIGHTLY
DRIER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) GOING
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) DIURNAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
INLAND AND NOCTURNAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL) CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OFFSHORE AS THE 850-700 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. WE THEN BRING HIGHER CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY WHEN WE SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
DEEPENING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA IN THE LATEST GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). THE ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
LOOKS FAIRLY SPURIOUS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEEPENING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED LOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED LOW) OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE WESTWARD UPPER
TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEPICTED IN THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SEEMS A BIT MORE REASONABLE...THEREFORE
WE KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. /05

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...MOSTLY ON SATURDAY
MOVING EASTWARD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL PREPPING THE FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE...BUT FROM
THE LOOKS OF IT WE WILL HAVE TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) TO A
RED FLAG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RED FLAG) WARNING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES TODAY AND EXPAND
IT A BIT TO JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN WE TREND TO A WETTER PATTERN
GOING INTO SATURDAY. /05

[ROLLTIDE]

Nice storms right off the beach just south of me . If a waterspout does form I will turn on my chase cam so you all can watch

[ROLLTIDE]

Marine Weather Statement

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL659 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008GMZ650-655-211400-/X.CAN.KMOB.MA.S.0020.000000T0000Z-080621T1200Z//X.NEW.KMOB.MA.S.0021.080621T1200Z-080621T1400Z/COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-659 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARDAT AROUND 15 KNOTS OFF THE COAST OF THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDACOAST THROUGH 9 AM.ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OFWATERSPOUTS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WATERSPOUTS CANDEVELOP QUICKLY...AND ARE NOT ALWAYS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ORTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THEY CAN DEVELOP BELOW RAINFREE CUMULUSCLOUDS AS WELL.PERSONS ALONG THE BEACH SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THATWATERSPOUTS JUST OFFSHORE CAN MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING.PERSONS IN THE PATH OF LAND-FALLING WATERSPOUTS SHOULD MOVE INDOORSQUICKLY...STAYING AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. OBJECTS AND DEBRISTHROWN AROUND A LAND-FALLING WATERSPOUT CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURIES.BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR WATERSPOUTS. THE BEST COURSE OFEVASIVE ACTION IF THREATENED BY A WATERSPOUT IS TO MOVE AWAY FROMTHE WATERSPOUT AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS APPARENT MOVEMENT.IF A WATERSPOUT IS OBSERVED...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENTOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORTTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.$$

[ScottM71]

Those storms offshore were pretty impressive this morning as I was headed over the DI bridge towards Mobile. Not too much lightning, but VERY dark and low hanging clouds.

[ROLLTIDE]

Looks like a rock'n afternoon I still expect to see 2 or 3 more severe storms for SW Alabama


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
201 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 280947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CDT SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUN 28 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN
ITSELF TODAY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL)
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT. WIDE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TODAY WITH MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)
ADVERTISING 20 PERCENT AND MET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) SHOWING 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM
PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO...BELIEVE PCPN (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) COVERAGE WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE GREATER
THAN THE MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) NUMBERS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS THE MET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) NUMBERS.
POP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) WILL THEREFORE BE A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCE SETS FOR
TODAY...WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...SO PLENTY
OF MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AVAILABLE IN LOWER LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH OLD
BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA BREEZE)
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TODAY.
WILL START THE DAY WITH LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY EVENING
CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) BUT BY LATE MORNING SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AGAIN AS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS WITH POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS AS WELL...GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MET)/MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO TONIGHTS POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)/TEMPS...AND
MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.12/DS.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER VORTLOBE TO PASS OVER THEWESTERN GULF THROUGH SHORT TERM DESTABILIZES LOWER TROPOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE)
ENCOURAGING CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS
PARENT LOW SWEEPS AROUND JAMES BAY THEN MORE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF HUDSON BAY WHERE IT DAMPENS AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE
WESTERLIES (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WESTERLIES). BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...WE WOULD SEE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT EVENTUALLY PASSES BY MIDDAY MONDAY KNOCKING HIGHS DOWN
INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/77 BD (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AS A WHOLE
DAMPENS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THINGS BECOME MORE BAROTROPIC FOR A
LITTLE WHILE...ONCE AGAIN BRINGING THE RETURN OF THE REIGN OF THE
SEABREEZE. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SHOWS AN INVERTED
BAROTROPIC TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OR EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE BEACH. AS THIS
OCCURS THE MID LATITUDE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LATITUDE) TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEEPENS AGAIN AS THIS FEATURE WOULD
FEED MOMENTUM AND MOIST STATIC ENERGY INTO THE JET STREAM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=JET STREAM)...CAUSING
BAROCLINIC WAVES TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER IN THE MID LATITUDES THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SEEMING TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR THE GULF COAST BEYOND THAT. POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND
TEMPS A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DURING THE APPROACH OF THE EASTERLY WAVE.
/77 BD (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

[ROLLTIDE]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1230 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008ALZ052-061>064-MSZ075-076-078-079-140730-WASHINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SP ANISH FORT...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDAL E1230 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008.NOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPHACROSS PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLYMORNING HOURS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAINTHREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULDPRODUCE A WIND GUST OF 30 TO 40 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 180945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION STRETCHING S TO SW TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. TO THE EAST A WEAK SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW IS NOTED NEAR THE GA
COAST WITH SOME NEW CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST PROGGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT BUT HOT DAY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA). HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OFFSHORE FROM DIURNAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) EFFECTS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. /32

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY MONDAY WHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND GULF COASTAL AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE)
EASTERLY WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN LEAD TO A RETURN OF A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH 850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) ON MONDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
A CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE LATTER
BRINGS A TRAILING FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE DEEP SOUTHEAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH STALLS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SEA
BREEZE WILL SUPPORT SMALL POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MEANWHILE TREND TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) IS EXPECTED. /32

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 200942
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS BROAD HIGH
PRES (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES) OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. TO THE
SOUTH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL WAVE) IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
PROGGED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO MOVE WEST AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NO
IMPACT TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS EXPECTED FOR THE CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) ALOFT. HAVE TRIMMED POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BACK A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) ALOFT. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MAV (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE THOUGH GO A DEGREE HIGHER FORMOST INLAND SITES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. /32&&.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE IMPRESSIVE LOOKINGTROPICAL DISTURBANCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL DISTURBANCE) CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF ON MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE-500 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS THE GULF FEATURE PASSES AND A STRONG CANADIAN
SYSTEM AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. AS THE
RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...A SURFACE-850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING CRISTOBAL LINGERS AS THE
LONGWAVE TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AMPLIFIES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES DUE TO THE
GULF SYSTEM AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES
RISING TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. A SEA BREEZE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA BREEZE)
DEVELOPS EACH DAY WHICH WILL INITIATE ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ON
MONDAY...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING DAILY WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...AND HAVE DEVIATED FROM COOLER MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE
TO MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA OFFICES.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS IN THE REGION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA BREEZE)
DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW SENDING A TRAILING FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS FEATURE AND THE SEA BREEZE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA BREEZE) WILL RESULT
IN ENHANCED GENERAL CONVERGENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) OVER THE REGION. AS NOTED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND TEMPERATURES ARE DEPENDENT UPON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE GULF SYSTEM AND COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE NO CONCERNS. /32

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SEAS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) MAINLY FROM SWELL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SWELL) CAN BE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL WAVE) MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. /32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

70 and 80% chances of rain and we don't get any !!!! Almost like the storm shield is in town

[ScottM71]

70 and 80% chances of rain and we don't get any !!!! Almost like the storm shield is in town

Don't know where you were, but it poured at my work near the airport. /clap1

[ROLLTIDE]

So you found the one isolated shower that we had yesterday . Watch us get severe stuff today with a 30% chance today

[ScottM71]

Looks like the 30% chance is raining down on Mobile Bay right now. :oops:

[ROLLTIDE]

NWS Mobile is on crack I know that it will never rain when they forecast anything over a 60% chance and today is a perfect example

[ROLLTIDE]

nice little thunderstorm this evening had some small hail on my ride home

[ScottM71]

80% chance of rain today, and I've already seen most of it!!!

[ROLLTIDE]

80% is a joke should have been 40% at the most

[ROLLTIDE]

Just had some mist from Special Ed here in Mobile,AL

[ROLLTIDE]

3.25 inches of rain in 2 days

[Alex]

So that's where all of the rain has been falling!

[ROLLTIDE]

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1025 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

.UPDATED...UPDATED ZONES...AND SHIPPED NEW GRIDS...TO REMOVE POPS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
FROM ALL EXCEPT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT PCPN (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) HAS ENDED AT MOST LOCATIONS. STILL HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS VCNTY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VCNTY) OF WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES...SO LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) IN FOR THOSE AND NEARBY NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ZONES LOOKED OK AND MADE NO OTHER
CHANGES. 12/DS

...PREVIOUS FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) FROM 345 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008 FOLLOWS...

.SYNOPSIS...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...CLOSED
LOWS OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) MARITIMES HAS
COMBINED TO CREATE AN UPPER RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) STRETCHING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) TO HUDSON BAY. DIMPLING THE UPPER RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) IS A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TS) FAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM AND SLOW NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF FAY IS CREATING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WITH A SURFACE TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVEREASTERN TX. /16&&.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISINGTHE PLAINS SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THEEASTERN UPPER RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...AS FAY WORKS ITS WAY WEST (OR NORTHWEST
DEPENDING UPON THE GUIDANCE). THE FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT
FORWARD...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE WINDS WILL START INCREASING OVER THE MARNIE ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE LAND AREAS AM NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO START
INCREASING UNTIL SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO BECOME
DOMINANT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE US/CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) BORDER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...WHILE A SHALLOW
TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FORMS OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY ON)...THIS POINT OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE THINGS
START TO GET INTERESTING. FAY APPROACHES THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) SATURDAY...WITH THE
CIRCULATION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) CENTER CROSSING THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCREPANCY WITH PATH...WITH SOME
KEEPING FAY`S PATH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILST SOME TAKE IT MORE
INLAND. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE FARTHER SOUTH THE PATH...THE GREATER THE
CHANCE WE WILL HAVE PROBLEMS. CURRENT NHC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NHC) TRACK TAKES IT OVER AN
INLAND PATH. WITH THIS TRACK...FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. I HAZARD TO PUT ANYTHING IN STONE AT THIS TIME...AND WITH
SEVERAL MORE DAYS TO DEAL WITH FAY...AM GOING TO TAKE A MONITORING
POSITION...DEALING WITH SPECIFICS IN LATER SHIFTS. /16

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIITY IS
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF KMOB, KBFM AND KPNS. WILL UPDATE TAFS
SHORTLY TO TAKE OUT TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) IN TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)...BUT WILL KEEP
VCNTY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VCNTY) REMARKS IN PLACE AS THOSE ON APPROACH TO THESE SITES WILL
LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) HAVE TO DODGE SOME BUILD-UPS. EXPECT MOST OF THE SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) TO DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
MORE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW MORNING. /05

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL STORM) FAY...LOCATED ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
JUST NORTH OF CAPE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE) CANAVERAL LATE TODAY...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. FAY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL DEPRESSION) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
START TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS) OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL DEPRESSION) FAY MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY) WILL LIKELY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE REQUIRED FOR THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MARINERS AND COASTAL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION AS SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF
FAY...ESPECIALLY A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF...WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. /05

[Islandtime]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Forecast Valid: 10pm CDT Aug 21, 2008-6pm CDT Aug 28, 2008

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. North wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 72. Windy, with a west wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 74. Breezy, with a south wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Monday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a south wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[ROLLTIDE]

I guess that you missed the Mobile , AL thread

[Islandtime]

/blush My apologies.../blush

[ROLLTIDE]

No problem just messing with you :) I realize that AU fans are a little slow j/k

[ROLLTIDE]

UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING WITH
REGARD TO SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). STILL HAVE ONGOING CONVECTION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...PRIMARILY OVER
MISSISSIPPI ZONES AND POINTS WESTWARD...SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT POP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=POP)
ALL ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FAY WITH
10 PM NHC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NHC) ADVSY. NHC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NHC) NOW FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) FAY TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST VS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL DEPRESSION) EARLIER
FCST (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST). THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WITH THE IMPACTSEXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO FAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILLCONTINUE TO BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

12/DS

.SYNOPSIS...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A
WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SW CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)...WITH ANOTHER OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SW CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)/MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX)
BORDER...AND ALSO OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) RUNNING NORTH.
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS YESTERDAY IS MOVING NORTHEAST...OVER THE
MID/UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY. FAY HAS STARTED MOVING WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EYE MOVING OVER THE NW FL ATLANTIC COAST.
LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE)...THERE IS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED LINE OVER EASTERN MS TO THE MS GULF COAST. WINDS HAVE GONE
DIRECT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5K` ON THE KEVX VWP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VWP)...THOUGH THE KMOB
IS STILL SHOWING A LIGHT NE. MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...WELL...WITH SYSTEMS TO THE NW
AND E...THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA).

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...FAY APPROACHES THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WITH CURRENT THINKING THAT THE EASTERN
REGIONS OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) WILL START SEEING WINDS 20KTS+ SATURDAY
MORNING...REACHING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE CENTER OF FAY`S CIRCULATION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) BEGINS MOVING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.
CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE CENTER OF FAY OVER THE GULF WATERS
AS IT APPROACHES THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRENGTHENING AS
IT MOVES OVER THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WIND PROBLEMS.
AM EXPECTING THE DRAW OF GULF MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO POSSIBLY START CREATING
FLOODING PROBLEMS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SE OF
I-65...SO HAVE PUT A FF WATCH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR THIS AREA. ALL IN ALL...A PRETTY
STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST. JUST AN INCREASE IN BOOK-KEEPING.

&&

.LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH...ALONG
WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME NOODLING OF FAY OVER MS THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER THE
SHORT TERM BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH AS IS EXCEPT TO BLEND WITH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WORSENING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AFFECTS OF FAY APPROACH FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL STORM) FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVING SLOWLY
WEST ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL DEPRESSION). FAY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS) OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF FAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

[ROLLTIDE]

Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-
Inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-mobile Bay-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms From 20 To 60 Nm-
Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-
533 Am Cdt Sat Aug 23 2008

...tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect...

...new Information...

The Strongest Winds Associated With Tropical Storm Fay Will Affect The
Coastal Counties Of The Western Florida Panhandle And Southwest
Alabama...and Their Adjacent Coastal Waters Starting Today.

Periods Of Prolonged Moderate To Heavy Rains Will Spread From East To
West Across The Warning Area Over The Weekend. A Flash Flood Watch Is
In Effect For The Potential Of Heavy Flooding Rains.

...areas Affected...

This Statement Recommends Specific Actions To Be Taken By Residents
In The Following Counties...

In Northwest Florida...

Escambia...santa Rosa And Okaloosa

In Southwest Alabama...

Mobile And Baldwin

The Gulf Coastal Waters Of Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle
Out To 60 Nautical Miles.

...watches/warnings...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Escambia...santa Rosa And
Okaloosa Counties In Northwest Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Mobile And Baldwin Counties
In Southwest Alabama.

A Flash Flood Watch Is In Effect For The Western Florida
Panhandle...south Central And Southwest Alabama...as Well As Portions
Of Interior Southeast Mississippi.

...storm Information...

At 500 Am Cdt...the Center Of Tropical Storm Fay Was Located Near
Latitude 29.9 North...longitude 84.9 West...or About 50 Miles
East-southeast Of Panama City Florida.

Fay Is Moving Toward The West Near 7 Mph...and This General Motion
Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 To 48 Hours. On The Forecast
Track...the Center Of Fay Will Pass Just South Of The Western
Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast This Afternoon And Evening...and Near Or
Over The Alabama Gulf Coast After Midnight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Little
Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 To 48 Hours...and
Fay Is Expected To Remain A Tropical Storm Into Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...mainly To
The South Of The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 997 Mb...29.44 Inches.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...

Residents In The Warning Area Should Finalize Their Tropical Cyclone
Preparations This Morning. Take Action Now To Secure Property...
Especially Homes Along The Area Beaches...near Rivers And Creeks...
Including Boats. Vessels Going Offshore Over The Gulf Waters Should
Be Prepared For Tropical Storm Conditions Over The Next 48 Hours.

...storm Surge And Storm Tide...

Astronomical Tides Are Running About One To Two Feet Below Normal
This Morning Due To The Persistent Northerly Wind Flow. However...this
Will Change. Based On The Latest Forecast Track And Speed...maximum
Storm Total Tide Heights Along The Coast Could Reach 2 To 4 Feet In
Some Areas. As The Center Of Fay Moves Westward Just South Of The
Western Florida Panhandle Coast...the Maximum Storm Tides Will Effect
The Coastal Sections From Destin To Pensacola This Afternoon Through
Sunday Morning...and From Pensacola To Pascagoula After Midnight
Through Sunday. The Astronomical High Tides Are Forecast To Occur
During The Early Morning Hours Between 2 Am And 5 Am Over The Next
Several Days.

Minor To Moderate Beach Erosion Along The Western Florida Panhandle
And Alabama Gulf Coast Will Be Possible Over The Weekend.

...winds...

Northerly Winds Of 15 To 30 Mph This Morning Will Become Southeast
And Increase To Near 40 Mph With Gusts To 50 Mph By Late Afternoon
Over The Western Florida Panhandle As The Center Of Fay Passes.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Then Spread Farther To The West
Across Mobile And Baldwin Counties Late This Evening Into Sunday
Morning.

Over The Coastal Waters...tropical Storm Force Winds Near 40 Knots
With Higher Gusts Will Affect The Gulf Waters Off Destin By Noon.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Then Spread Westward Over Most Of The
Florida Coastal Through This Afternoon...then Spread Into The Alabama
Coastal Waters By Late This Afternoon. Seas From 8 To 10 Feet Are
Forecast Over The Gulf Waters.

...inland Flooding...

Heavy Rains Will Onset From East To West Today. During The 24 Hour
Period Ending Early Sunday Morning...some 10 To 15 Inches Of Rain
Could Fall Across The Area. The Axis Of The Heaviest Of Rainfall
Should Line Up From Butler Alabama Southeastward Through Brewton To
Navarre Beach Florida.

These Type Of Rainfall Amounts Could Result In Significant Flash
Flooding...especially From This Afternoon Through The Overnight
Hours. Widespread Moderate Or Major Flooding Of Rivers And Streams
Is Possible Well Into Next Week...especially Over Southern Alabama
And The Western Florida Panhandle Where Heavier Rains Are Currently
Forecast.

...tornadoes...

The Risk Of Tornadoes In Outer Rain Bands Will Increase This Afternoon
And Evening As Fay Moves Westward. The Rain Bands On The East Side Of
Fay Are More Likely To Produce Tornadoes.

...next Update...

The Next Tropical Storm Local Statement Will Be Issued From The
National Weather Service Forecast Office In Mobile By 8 Am Cdt This
Morning.

[astroswin22]

Tropical Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
801 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...

AT 800 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND NEAR OR OVER THE ALABAMA GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-241315-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
801 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL AFFECT THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS STARTING TODAY.

PERIODS OF PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY FLOODING RAINS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

MOBILE AND BALDWIN

THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND
OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 800 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND NEAR OR OVER THE ALABAMA GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD FINALIZE THEIR TROPICAL CYCLONE
PREPARATIONS THIS MORNING. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE PROPERTY...
ESPECIALLY HOMES ALONG THE AREA BEACHES...NEAR RIVERS AND CREEKS...
INCLUDING BOATS. VESSELS GOING OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET BELOW NORMAL
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL CHANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST COULD REACH 2 TO 4 FEET IN
SOME AREAS. AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDES WILL EFFECT
THE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...AND FROM PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA GULF COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WINDS...

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS THE CENTER OF FAY PASSES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD FARTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE GULF WATERS OFF DESTIN BY NOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD WESTWARD OVER MOST OF THE
FLORIDA COASTAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO THE ALABAMA
COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ARE
FORECAST OVER THE GULF WATERS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINS WILL ONSET FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY. DURING THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SOME 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL
SHOULD LINE UP FROM BUTLER ALABAMA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BREWTON TO
NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA.

THESE TYPE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS
IS POSSIBLE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS FAY MOVES WESTWARD. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
FAY ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 11 AM CDT THIS
MORNING.

[ROLLTIDE]

Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-
Inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-mobile Bay-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms From 20 To 60 Nm-
Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-
1121 Am Cdt Sat Aug 23 2008

...tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect...

...flash Flood Watch In Effect Through Sunday...

...new Information...

Tropical Storm Fay Continues Moving Slowly West Along The Florida
Panhandle. The Broad Center Of Fay Was Located At 11 Am Just
Northeast Of Panama City Florida.

The Strongest Winds Associated With Tropical Storm Fay Will Affect
The Coastal Counties Of The Western Florida Panhandle And Southwest
Alabama...and Their Adjacent Coastal Waters...starting This
Afternoon And Evening.

Periods Of Prolonged Heavy Flooding Rains Will Spread From East To
West Across The Area Tonight And Sunday.

...areas Affected...

This Statement Recommends Specific Actions To Be Taken By
Residents In The Following Counties...

In Northwest Florida...

Escambia...santa Rosa And Okaloosa

In Southwest Alabama...

Mobile And Baldwin

As Well As The Gulf Coastal Waters Of Alabama And The Western Florida
Panhandle Out To 60 Nautical Miles.

...watches/warnings...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Escambia...santa Rosa
And Okaloosa Counties In Northwest Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Mobile And Baldwin
Counties In Southwest Alabama.

A Flash Flood Watch Is In Effect For The Western Florida
Panhandle...south Central And Southwest Alabama...as Well As
Portions Of Interior Southeast Mississippi.

...storm Information...

At 11 Am Cdt...the Center Of Tropical Storm Fay Was Located Near
Latitude 30.3 North...longitude 85.6 West...or Just Northeast Of
Panama City Florida And About 100 Miles East Of Pensacola Florida.

Fay Is Moving Toward The West Near 7 Mph...and This Motion Is
Expected To Continue During The Next Day Or Two. On The Forecast
Track...fay Will Be Near Or Over The Gulf Coast Of The Western
Florida Panhandle Today And Tonight...and Near Or Over The Gulf Coast
Of Alabama On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...with Higher Gusts. No
Significant Change In Intensity Is Expected During The Next 24 To 36
Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles From The
Center...mainly Over Water South Of The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

...inland Flooding...

Flooding From Excessive Rainfall Is Expected To Be The Major Impact
From Tropical Storm Fay. Heavy Rains Will Onset From East To West
Today. During The 24 Hour Period Ending Early Sunday Morning...some
10 To 15 Inches Of Rain Could Fall Across The Area. Through Sunday
Morning...the Axis Of The Heaviest Rainfall Should Be Across
Portions Of South Central Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle.
Those Heavy Rains Are Forecast To Shift Westward Across Southwest
Alabama And Into Southeast Mississippi Sunday Through Monday Morning.

The Forecast Rainfall Amounts Could Result In Significant Flash
Flooding. Widespread Moderate To Major Flooding Of Rivers And
Streams Is Possible Well Into Next Week...especially Over Southern
Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle Where Heavier Rains Are
Currently Forecast.

...winds...

Northerly Winds Of 15 To 30 Mph This Morning Will Become Southeast
And Increase To Near 40 Mph With Gusts To 50 Mph By Late Afternoon
And Evening Over The Western Florida Panhandle As The Center Of Fay
Moves By. Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Then Spread Farther To The
West Across Mobile And Baldwin Counties Later This Evening Into
Sunday Morning.

Over The Coastal Waters...tropical Storm Force Winds Near 40 Knots
With Higher Gusts Will Affect The Gulf Waters Off Destin This
Afternoon. Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Then Spread Westward Over
Most Of The Florida Coastal Through This Afternoon...then Spread Into
The Alabama Coastal Waters By Late This Afternoon And Evening. Seas From 8
To 10 Feet Are Forecast Over The Gulf Waters.

Marine And Coastal Interests Should Rush To Completion Any Remaining
Preparedness Actions Immediately.

...storm Surge And Storm Tide...

Astronomical Tides Were Running About One To Two Feet Below Normal
At Mid Day Due To The Persistent Northerly Wind Flow. However...this
Will Change. Based On The Latest Forecast Track And Speed... Maximum
Storm Total Tide Heights Along The Coast Could Reach 2 To 4 Feet In
Some Areas. As The Center Of Fay Moves Westward Just South Of The
Western Florida Panhandle Coast...the Maximum Storm Tides Will Effect
The Coastal Sections From Destin To Pensacola Later This Afternoon
Through Sunday Morning...and From Pensacola To Pascagoula After
Midnight Through Sunday. The Astronomical High Tides Are Forecast To
Occur During The Early Morning Hours Between 2 Am And 5 Am Over The
Next Several Days.

A High Risk Of Very Dangerous Rip Currents Will Begin Late This
Afternoon And Persist Into Monday. Anyone Entering The Surf At Area
Beaches During This Event Will Be Endangering Their Life. Minor To
Moderate Beach Erosion Along The Western Florida Panhandle And
Alabama Gulf Coast Will Be Possible Over The Weekend.

...tornadoes...

The Risk Of Tornadoes In Outer Rain Bands Will Increase This
Afternoon And Evening Over South Central Alabama And The Western
Florida Panhandle As Fay Moves Westward. The Rain Bands On The
Northeast And East Side Of Fay Are More Likely To Produce Tornadoes.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...

Residents In The Warning Area Should Finalize Their Tropical Cyclone
Preparations Immediately. Complete Actions Now To Secure
Property...especially Homes Along The Area Beaches...near Rivers And
Creeks...including Boats. Vessels Going Offshore Over The Gulf
Waters Should Be Prepared For Tropical Storm Conditions Over The Next
48 Hours.

...next Update...

[ROLLTIDE]

Fay made it to Mobile


RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL PER HOUR IS
OCCURRING IN STRONG RAINBANDS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 200 AM MONDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THIS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WARNED AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN THE
WARNED AREA.
__________________

[ROLLTIDE]

Coastal Flood Watch

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1129 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH MONDAY EVENING....HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL MOVE NORTHWEST...EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTGULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE NORTHWEST. LARGE SWELLSWITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 10 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD AWAY FROMTHE CENTER OF GUSTAV AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAYEVENING. THESE LARGE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGINIMPACTING THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDAPANHANDLE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME RUNUP OFWATER ON LOW LYING AND UNPROTECTED BEACHES...SUCH AS THE WEST ENDDAUPHIN ISLAND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTOMONDAY...AND FOR THIS REASON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECTSTARTING 400 AM SUNDAY.THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RIP CURRENTTHREAT ALONG AREA GULF BEACHES BEGINNING SUNDAY.ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-301230-/O.CON.KMOB.CF.A.0002.080831T0900Z-080902T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-1129 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH MONDAY EVENING...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH MONDAY EVENING.HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 10 SECONDSWILL EMANATE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF GUSTAV. THESE LARGEAND LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING AT THE GULFBEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY. RUNUPOF WATER ON LOW LYING AND UNPROTECTED BEACHES...SUCH AS THE WEST END OFDAUPHIN ISLAND WILL START DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTOMONDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING 400 AMSUNDAY.THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RIP CURRENTTHREAT ALONG AREA GULF BEACHES BEGINNING SUNDAY.A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR COASTALFLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BEALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO

[ROLLTIDE]

Upper mobile-upper baldwin-lower mobile-lower baldwin-
219 pm cdt sun aug 31 2008

...hurricane warning remains in effect...

...new information...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the alabama coast. Hurricane
gustav remains a category three storm. Gustav is moving quickly
toward the northwest...and is forecast to make landfall along the
southeast louisiana coast around midday monday. To the east of the
center of gustav...hurricane force winds extend outward for 50 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward for 200 miles. Should the
center of gustav move slightly to the east of the forecast track...
The hurricane force winds would affect coastal alabama late tonight
and monday.

...areas affected...

Mobile and baldwin counties.

...watches/warnings...

Hurricane warning in effect.

A flash flood watch is in effect on monday and tuesday for expected
heavy rains.

...storm information...

At 100 pm cdt...the center of hurricane gustav was located near
latitude 25.9 north...longitude 86.6 west or about 270 miles
southeast of the mouth of the mississippi river.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph. This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On this track...gustav should make
landfall on the northern gulf coast on monday.

Reports from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds have to decreased to near 115 mph...with
higher gusts. Gustav remains a category three hurricane on the
saffir-simpson scale. Some re-intensification is forecast during the
next 12 to 24 hours...and gustav could regain category four strength
later today or tonight. Fluctuations in strength are likely
thereafter...but gustav is forecast to remain a major hurricane until
landfall.

Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 50 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 200 miles. Noaa buoy 42003 recently
reported 8-minute average winds of 60 mph...with a gust to 78 mph.

The minimum central pressure reported by an air force reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 960 mb...28.35 inches.

...precautionary/preparedness actions...

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected along the
immediate coast...along tidal flood areas...and across the specified
marine waters...usually within 24 hours. Persons should complete
their preparations as early as possible today for hurricane
conditions that are possible tonight and monday. Take action now to
secure property...especially at beach front homes and with boats.

People residing in fema trailers need to evacuate them and seek
safer shelter. Mobile county has ordered mandatory evacuations
generally along and south of 1-10...including areas such as fowl
river...coden...bayou la batre and dauphin island. Baldwin county has
ordered mandatory evacuations of the entire fort morgan peninsula...all
areas south of fort morgan road in the city of gulf shores...plash
island and other low lying...surge and flood prone areas.

Relatives or neighbors of elderly or handicapped residents in
mandatory evacuation areas or other flood prone locations should
ensure that they are moved to a safe refuge. Residents are urged to
complete these evacuations by late today. Stay tuned to local radio
and television for details for the latest evacuation information.

...storm surge and storm tide...

Based on the latest forecast track and speed...the center of
hurricane gustav is expected to make landfall in southeast louisiana
on monday morning. Starting monday morning...the maximum total storm
tide could reach 6 to 8 feet along southern mobile county from cedar
point westward across portersville bay...coden and bayou la batre.
Along the western shore of mobile bay...total storm tide from the
fowl river area north across the theodore industrial canal...dog
river...to the alabama state docks and port of mobile could reach 4
to 6 feet by monday morning. Along the eastern shore of mobile bay
and southern baldwin county...total storm tide is also expected to
average 4 to 6 feet. We are entering into a neap tide cycle as gustav
makes landfall...so the astronomical high tides will be negligible
in the overall storm tide height.

Extremely dangerous rip currents will occur along the alabama and
northwest florida beaches through at least tuesday due to high winds
and extremely large breaking waves. Rip currents are life
threatening to anyone entering the surf...do not enter the water
under any circumstances.

Major to extensive beach erosion is expected to occur from the
alabama/mississippi state line to the alabama/florida state line.
Moderate to major beach erosion is expected to occur from the
alabama/florida state line eastward to destin florida.

...winds...

East to northeast winds will increase to around 30 mph with higher
gusts this afternoon and evening. Sustained tropical storm force
winds of 45 to 55 mph are likely to overspread the alabama coastal
areas late tonight and monday...with higher hurricane force winds
possible along the coastal areas on monday...mainly along and to the
south of interstate 10.

...inland flooding...

Rain bands moving in off the gulf on the east side of gustav brings
the potential of 4 to 7 inches of rainfall. Isolated amounts from 8
to 10 inches are not out of the question in the case that rain bands
set up and remain over the area for several hours...especially monday
night. These areas of heavier rain would result in an increased
potential of flash flooding monday through tuesday.

...tornadoes...

The risk of tornadoes in outer rain bands will increase this evening
into monday. The rain bands on the east side of tropical cyclones
are more likely to contain tornadoes.

...next update...

The next hurricane local statement will be issued from the national
weather service forecast office in mobile around 500 pm cdt.

[ROLLTIDE]

Wtus84 kmob 010710
hlsmob

urgent - immediate broadcast requested
hurricane gustav local statement
national weather service mobile al
210 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

...hurricane gustav 70 miles southwest of the mouth of the
mississippi river and still moving quickly northwestward...

...hurricane warning remains in effect for mobile and baldwin
counties as well as the adjacent gulf coastal waters of alabama...

...tropical storm warning remains in effect for the western
florida panhandle as well as the adjacent gulf coastal waters of
northwest florida...

...tropical storm wind warning remains in effect for stone...
George...greene...perry and wayne counties of southeast
mississippi and washington county of southwest alabama...

...a flash flood watch is in effect on monday and tuesday for
expected heavy rains over portions of southeast mississippi and
southwest alabama...

...tornado watch in effect for the western florida
panhandle...coastal alabama...and portions of interior southeast
mississippi...

At 2 am cdt...the center of hurricane gustav was located near
latitude 28.0 north...longitude 88.9 west...or about 160 miles
southwest of dauphin island and just 70 miles southeast of the mouth
of the mississippi river.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...and this motion
is expected to continue prior to landfall. On the forecast
track...the center of gustav would reach the southeast louisiana
coast by late morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts. Gustav
is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. A little
strengthening is still possible prior to landfall.

Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force
hurricane hunter aircraft is 955 mb...28.20 inches.

Alz061>064-011100-
/o.con.kmob.hu.w.1007.000000t0000z-000000t0000z/
upper mobile-upper baldwin-lower mobile-lower baldwin-
210 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

...hurricane warning remains in effect...

...new information...

Hurricane gustav remains a category 3 storm on the saffir-simpson
scale...centered about 160 miles southwest of dauphin island alabama.
Hurricane gustav continues moving quickly northwest...headed for the
southeast louisiana gulf coast through late morning.

Some observation sites are starting to report gusts at tropical
storm force along the alabama coast. Sustained winds at tropical
storm force will overspread mobile and baldwin counties through the
mid morning hours as stronger squalls offshore move inland.

Tide levels continue to rise along the alabama coast. Coastal tide
levels at 3 to 4 feet are being observed along portions of south
mobile and baldwin counties early this morning.

...areas affected...

Mobile and baldwin counties.

...watches/warnings...

Hurricane warning in effect.

Tornado watch in effect until 7 am cdt.

A flash flood watch is in effect on monday and tuesday for expected
heavy rains.

...storm information...

At 2 am cdt...the center of hurricane gustav was located near
latitude 28.0 north...longitude 88.9 west...or about 160 miles
southwest of dauphin island and just 70 miles southeast of the mouth
of the mississippi river.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...and this motion
is expected to continue prior to landfall. On the forecast
track...the center of gustav would reach the southeast louisiana
coast by late morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts. Gustav
is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. A little
strengthening is still possible prior to landfall.

Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force
hurricane hunter aircraft is 955 mb...28.20 inches.

...precautionary/preparedness actions...

Action to secure property should be completed at this time as
tropical storm force winds are being observed in some areas of
south mobile and baldwin counties.

People residing in fema trailers need to evacuate them and seek
safer shelter. Mobile county has ordered mandatory evacuations
generally along and south of 1-10...including areas such as fowl
river...coden...bayou la batre and dauphin island. Baldwin county
has ordered mandatory evacuations of the entire fort morgan
peninsula...all areas south of fort morgan road in the city of
gulf shores...plash island and other low lying...surge and flood
prone areas.

Relatives or neighbors of elderly or handicapped residents in
mandatory evacuation areas or other flood prone locations should
ensure that they are moved to a safe refuge. Stay tuned to local
radio and television for details for the latest evacuation
information.

...storm surge and storm tide...

At 2 am cdt...tide gages across southern mobile and baldwin counties
are reporting tide heights of 3 to 4 ft. Tide gages are indicating
the water levels continue to rise.

Based on the latest forecast track and speed...the center of
hurricane gustav is expected to make landfall in southeast louisiana
by late morning. Maximum total storm tide could reach 5 to 7 feet by
late morning along southern mobile county...with 4 to 6 feet across
the western shores of mobile bay. Along the eastern shore of mobile
bay and southern baldwin county...total storm tide is also expected
to average 2 to 4 feet. These values represent the worst case
scenario. We are entering into a neap tide cycle as gustav makes
landfall...so the astronomical high tides will be negligible in the
overall storm tide height.

Extremely dangerous rip currents will occur along the alabama and
northwest florida beaches through at least tuesday due to high
winds and extremely large breaking waves. Rip currents are life
threatening to anyone entering the surf...do not enter the water
under any circumstances.

Major to extensive beach erosion is expected to occur from the
alabama/mississippi state line to the alabama/florida state line.
Moderate to major beach erosion is expected to occur from the
alabama/florida state line eastward to destin florida.

...winds...

Sustained winds from 35 to 45 mph are being observed along the
alabama coast...with higher gusts to 55 mph being observed in
periodic squalls. Farther inland...winds are a little weaker...but
still gusting to near 40 mph at times across northern mobile and
baldwin counties. As the bands of heavier squalls offshore move in
through the mid morning hours...sustained stronger winds at tropical
storm force will affect mobile and baldwin counties...gusting to near
60 mph at times. The winds will be higher along and to the south of
interstate 10 through late morning.

...inland flooding...

Rain bands moving in off the gulf on the east side of gustav will
bring the potential of 4 to 6 inches of rainfall...with isolated
higher amounts possible. Areas of heavier rain could result in an
increased potential of flash flooding monday through tuesday.

...tornadoes...

The risk of tornadoes in outer rain bands will increase through the
mid morning hours as outer rain bands offshore approach the coast. The
rain bands on the east side of tropical cyclones are more likely to
contain tornadoes.

...next update...

The next hurricane local statement will be issued from the
national weather service forecast office in mobile around 530 am cdt.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Coastal Flood Watch

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1122 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON....AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERNAND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE SWELLSWITH A PERIOD OF 11 TO 13 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD AWAY FROMTHE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE LARGE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS AREEXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE GULF COASTAL BEACHES OF ALABAMA ANDTHE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLYWINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAYNIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATIONOF THE LARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN RUN-UP OF WATERON LOW LYING AND UNPROTECTED BEACHES...SUCH AS THE WEST END OF DAUPHINISLAND...ROADS AND PARKING LOTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND RESIDENTIALYARDS.ALZ061>064-FLZ002-004-006-101230-/O.CON.KMOB.CF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-080912T1800Z/UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-1122 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ANDCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE SWELLS WITH APERIOD OF 11 TO 13 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THECENTER OF THE STORM. THESE LARGE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTEDTO BEGIN IMPACTING THE GULF COASTAL BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THEWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY WINDSWILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANDTHEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THELARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN RUN-UP OF WATER ON LOWLYING AND UNPROTECTED BEACHES...SUCH AS THE WEST END OF DAUPHINISLAND...ROADS AND PARKING LOTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND RESIDENTIALYARDS.A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FORFLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BEALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TOPROTECT PROPERTY

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER THE
CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SOUTH FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...A
TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STRETCHED OVER SE CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)/E-RN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). ANOTHER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STRETCHED SE
OVER CALIFORNIA/NW MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX). A RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED NORTHWEST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SE AK FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX). A RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ALSO STRETCHED EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH PASSED OVER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS
STALLED...STRETCHING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE NOTED...WITH ONE OVER THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE...THE SECOND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
OVER NW-RN SECTIONS OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SE-RN TIP OF
THE MARINE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...THIS MORNING`S TEMPS ARE THE
LOWEST SINCE MID MAY...WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) SHIELD ABOUT TO EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL) SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) IN THE WAKE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE
TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DOMINATING MOST OF THE SKIES. HOWEVER...SATELLITE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
PRODUCT...AREA METAR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=METAR) OBSERVATIONS (LOWEST BASES ~1000 FEET) AND
MODELS (RH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) < 800 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)) INDICATING STATUS INVADING THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS DEPICTS A
SOUTHWEST EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. BUT MODEL PHYSICAL SOLUTION AND GUIDANCE OUTPUT SENDING
MIXED SIGNALS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE. FOR NOW...WILL CAP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP) RH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) AT
50&#37; (MOSTLY SUNNY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY SUNNY)/PARTLY CLOUDY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY CLOUDY)) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME AREAS
WILL HOWEVER SEE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY CLOUDY) SKIES AS THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) ACTUALLY HOLDS THE MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...AND
PREVENTS THE DRY AIR ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN. OTHERWISE NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80-85 DEGREES AND LOWS 60
TO 65 (EXCEPT LOWS 65 TO 70 ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS). /22

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY ON)...THURSDAY STARTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST...TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE
SW-RN TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE SE-ERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
UNDER SYNOPTIC NE LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW).

INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE S-RN ROCKIES SYSTEM
CONTINUING AN EASTERLY PATH...TO OVER THE S-RN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING THE
PLAINS RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EAST...WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVES. THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
PUSHED EAST ALSO...ENDING UP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE START AROUND SEASON FOR
HIGHS...A BIT BELOW FOR LOWS...TRANSITIONING TO DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL...LOWS AROUND SEASONAL AS THE TEMP RANGE TIGHTENS
BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE FORMING
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HANGS
TOUGH...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMING WEEK...AND KEEPING THE PRECIP FOCUSING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE FOR THE COMING WEEK. AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES
THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AT OR ABOVE 1500 FT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FT). LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Now...

Low pressure over the central gulf of mexico continues moving slowly
northeast tonight. To the north of the low...light to moderate rains
will continue to overspread the western florida panhandle...southern
alabama and a portion of southeast mississippi through the late
evening hours.

Through midnight...the heaviest rains totaling some 2 to 3 inches
will fall from southern baldwin county eastward to near destin and
crestview. Scattered embedded thunderstorms currently over the open
gulf waters south of dauphin island and gulf shores will develop
farther north to the immediate coastal areas late tonight. Some of
these storms could bring gusty winds around 45 mph and locally
heavier rains as well.

Light to moderate rains will continue over the inland counties
through the early morning hours.

A cold front...currently extending from the new orleans area to just
east of meridian...will continue moving east tonight. The passing
front will usher in a cooler and drier airmass for southeast
mississippi and portions of southwest alabama after midnight

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 281726 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAZARDOUS
SEAS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) OF 5 TO 7 FEET OUT 20 NM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) OUT SEAS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) UP TO 9 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED
THOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL929 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008...FREEZE WARNING FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES TONIGHT......FROST ADVISORY UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR COASTAL COUNTIESTONIGHT....A COLD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT. THE DRYCOLD AND CALM AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 32 DEGREES BY 2AM GENERALLY NORTH OF THE COAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE TODESTIN FLORIDA. LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BETWEEN 28 AND 32DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING BY SUNRISEWEDNESDAY.AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERETEMPERATURE CAN REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. FROST FORMS BECAUSE THE SURFACECAN BECOME MUCH COLDER THAN THE AIR ABOVE IT

[ROLLTIDE]

Fall Severe Weather Season...
...Review Severe Weather Safety Rules...

As the first cool fronts of the fall season arrive, the threat of a significant tropical weather event is decreasing for southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. However the likelihood of severe weather and associated hazards of tornadoes and damaging winds is increasing. Often the severe weather develops as warm and unstable air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico interacts with cold fronts or upper level disturbances moving eastward through the area. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can develop in this unstable environment.
CLIMATOLOGY

Historical records show that the fall season, particularly November, has produced a large share of severe weather in Gulf Coast region. The fall season is only secondary to the primary severe weather season that occurs during the spring months. In addition, the severe weather often occurs at night. The severe weather may take the form of damaging straight-line winds, tornadoes, and large hail.
Examples of several recent damaging severe weather events in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi include:

November 21, 1997 - a strong tornado moved across St Tammany Parish, Louisiana, and continued into Pearl River County, Mississippi. Covington, Louisiana, and surrounding areas were particularly hard hit with nearly 70 homes damaged and 4 downtown buildings damaged. 47 people suffered mainly minor injuries.
October 29, 2002 - a weak tornado moved across the southeast portion of the Baton Rouge area during the early morning hours, knocking down trees and damaging house roofs. Straight-line wind damage occurred in several other areas from Baton Rouge area eastward to Pearl Rive County, Mississippi.
November 24, 2004 - damaging straight-line winds and several tornadoes were reported during the early morning hours in an area from near Baton Rouge eastward into coastal Mississippi. A strong tornado touched near the Slidell airport damaging 152 homes in a nearby subdivision. The same storm system produced another strong tornado that touched down around sunrise just north of Gulfport. The tornado damaged homes and businesses. Fortunately only a few relatively minor injuries were reported. Straight-line wind damage occurred in other areas of southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi.
November 15, 2006 - Severe thunderstorms produced tornadoes as they tracked across areas north of Lake Pontchartrain into southwest Mississippi during the early morning hours. Several strong tornadoes touched down from east of Greensburg, Louisiana, across northern Washington Parish to east of Tylertown, Mississippi. Unfortunately, one fatality occurred near Montpelier in St Helena Parish when a strong tornado struck a house and adjacent trailer.

SEVERE WEATHER DEFINITIONS, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS

Severe thunderstorms, by definition, can produce wind gusts of 58 mph or higher, and hail greater than three quarters of an inch. Wind gusts associated with severe thunderstorms can down trees, power lines, blow out plate glass windows, and heavily damage house roofs.
Tornadoes can also develop from severe thunderstorms. Tornadoes can inflict damage ranging from minor damage to roofs and trees to total destruction of well constructed buildings.
The National Weather Service issues Watches and Warnings to help inform you of the approaching hazards of severe weather.
A Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is issued when atmospheric conditions are conducive for severe thunderstorms and tornado. Typically watches cover large portions of a state or states and are in effect for around 6 hours. If a watch is in effect, be alert and monitor weather conditions and listen to television or radio for the latest watches and warnings.
A Tornado Warning or Severe Thunderstorm is issued when reliable ground truth reports have been received or when doppler radar indicates there is a high threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, or large hail.
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES

If a warning is issued for your area...take action immediately. Seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well constructed building away from doors or windows. An interior small room such as a bathroom or closet, or even a hallway away from doors and windows is the best location
If you are living in a travel trailer or mobile homes make sure it is anchored securely as these structures are more vulnerable to severe thunderstorm winds and tornadoes. If possible, move to stronger and well constructed building if severe weather develops.
RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION

One of the most important features of your severe weather safety plans is to have a reliable means to receive severe weather warnings if severe weather is forecast, monitor commercial television, radio or cable television for the latest weather information,including watches and warnings.
A battery operated NOAA Weather Radio is an excellent means to receive severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Weather radios can be programmed to automatically alert if warnings are issued for your parish or county. Weather Radios are especially helpful at night when people may not be monitoring the weather or television. The Weather Radios can be programmed to automatically alarm if a warning is issued.
For additional information on severe weather visit the National Weather Service web site at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/) or contact the National Weather Service forecast office in Slidell at telephone number 985-649-0357 or 504-522-7330.

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...PATCHY FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) FORMING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. REGIONAL
TRAFFIC CAMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) AT
THIS TIME...AND THE NEXRAD (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NEXRAD) VAD (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VAD) WIND PROFILES ARE SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE WIND IN THE 1-4 THOUSAND FOOT GATES AS THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) HAS
INCHED A FEW MORE MILES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON A DENSE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND KEEP A CLOSE WATCH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL BE LOCALLY THICKER ALONG THE
INLAND WATERWAYS SYSTEMS AND TRIBUTARIES UNTIL IT STARTS TO BURN OFF
AROUND 9 AM. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS
THE DEEP MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TAP (WITH THE NOSE OF 60+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS) ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EDGES A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST AND THE
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. WILL SEE A FEW MORE
SCATTERED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) LOW CLOUDS AROUND TODAY (ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH) AS THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) SLOWLY INCREASES AS WELL...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE
COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS TODAY ARE CLOSE TO
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE WATER WHERE WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER IN THE WEST AND COASTAL AREAS WITH MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE EAST AND NORTH WHERE DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY LAYER) DECOUPLING OF THE WIND WILL OCCUR. /05

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z FRI SQUALL LINE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE) AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS PROGGED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO REACH
THE AL AND EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COAST BY AROUND 18Z. DUE TO
BETTER MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER SE TX AND THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON FRI COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE TREND FOR NOW FOR FRI. VERTICAL
SHEAR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL THOUGH WITH SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BASED MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)
MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...OCCURRING
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS PUTS AREAS GENERALLY WEST
AND NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO LUCEDALE
MS UNDER THE GUN SOMEWHAT FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AN APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE) EARLY FRI AFT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT). AT THIS TIME SPC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) STILL PLACES THE ENTIRE
REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) OUTLOOK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK) WITH THIS PATTERN. LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
PENSACOLA FL TO ANDALUSIA AL MOSTLY DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) FROM
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH GOOD MOISTURE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). IN THE WAKE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF
THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) A SLIGHTLY BETTER SURGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) OF COOLER AIR IS ALSO
EXPECTED...THOUGH REMAINING SHORT LIVED GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 18Z
SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). BY SAT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AFTERNOON UPPER TROF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) WITH
ZONAL FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL FLOW) SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH EARLY
MON. BOTH THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) DEPICT THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD ON MON WITH THE MAIN SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW ALONG THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
SHIFTING ENE FROM NE TX TO THE TN RIVER MON EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
SFC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) COLD FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OCCURRING
MOSTLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE...MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE). IN THE WAKE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM COOLER AIR LOOKS
TO LESS PRONOUNCED THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A DEEP RETURN FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SLOWER MOVING
FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LATE THU INTO FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED THIS SITUATION
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE
CURRENT MEXMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
/32

&&

[Cahoots]

What's the current thinking on the forcast for this weekend? I've watched the NWS stuff the last few days. Anyone have a different thought for the Mobile (Pascagoula) area?

[ROLLTIDE]

Perfect this weekened with highs around 65 both Saturday and Sunday. I really wish that we would get some more cold air down here but that's still 2 weeks away

[Cahoots]

I've got an overnighter planned on the boat up the rivers over here - what do you think about wind. NWS is calling for approx 20knts from the north. The north part I believe but I'm not sure I see this front being that strong.

[ROLLTIDE]

Where are you going to be ? Feel free to pm me if you don't want to post it on the board

[Cahoots]

Just anchored up the Pascagoula River with a couple other boats about two miles north of I-10. We'll be in a pretty protected part of the river with trees and such so I'm not really worried about it, but it would be more fun with less wind. If you're familiar with the river I'll give you an exact via PM

[ROLLTIDE]

Sxus74 kmob 142041
rermob

record event report
national weather service mobile al
235 pm cst fri nov 14 2008


...record high temperatures tied at mobile and pensacola today...

The high temperature at the mobile regional airport reached 82
degrees at 12:29 this afternoon. This tied the previous record of 82
degrees set in 1955.

The high temperature at the pensacola regional airport reached 82
degrees at 12:34 this afternoon. This tied the previous record of 82
degrees set in 1994. It is possible that the temperature could rise
another degree or two at pensacola with another couple of hours of
sunshine left this afternoon.

$$

04/kc

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...LOOKING AT THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A CLOSE LOW
WAS MEANDERING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A MEAN (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STRETCHING
SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A RIDGE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) STRETCHED NORTH OVER MEX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) TO
WESTERN CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA). THE SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WHICH CREATED YESTERDAYS WEATHER HAS MOVED
THROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA.
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE)...A SURFACE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STRETCHED FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC SOUTH ALONG THE LEE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LEE) SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGHS DOMINATED
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). DRY AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH DEW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=DEW) POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER
MOST OF MISS...UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS HEADING THE WAY OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA).

&&

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT] NORMAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A
NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WILL BLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A DRY DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND...TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. /22

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY] BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...WITH ONSHORE FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TWO SHORTWAVES
ARE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...ONE OVER THE ID/MT/CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)
BORDER...AND THE OTHER MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA...IN ADDITION
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) NOODLING ONE.

GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A WEAK SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT BRINGING MUCH THE RAIN. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER) EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AS
THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
COMBINES WITH A FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (FROM THE
ID/MT/CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) SYSTEM) TO CREATE SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NAM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS A BIT QUICKER IN SPREADING SHRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) OVER
THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THAN THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). DON`T SEE ENOUGH TO
DEVIATE FROM THE BETTER PERFORMING GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE USED
THAT FOR THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...[THURSDAY NIGHT ON] GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ADVERTISING THE ID/MT/CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)
SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)/SOUTHEASTERN CA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) MEANDERING
SYSTEM...AS THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM PUSHES
THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CALIFORNIA
SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR UPGLIDE SHOWERS...MAYBE A
FEW ELEVATED TSRA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH ENOUGH MONDAY FOR THE PRECIP TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). TILL THEN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
WET PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) TELLS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. WET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES SOUTH...THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THEN DRY AS A STRONGER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOVING COOLER AIR OVER THE CONUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

CONSENSUS IS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IN THE EXTENDED...SO HAVE
LEANED THAT DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 082119
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
319 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN ON THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT MORE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ELONGATE ALONG THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOMORROW. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) WITH DECENT CAPES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) ALLOW SOME SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
ADJACENT ALABAMA COUNTIES FROM CHOCTAW TO MOBILE COUNTY. AN
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) MARINE LAYER MOVING IN TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES TO THE WARMER DAY LIGHT AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SEVERE STORM OVER NIGH TUESDAY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) VALUES WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO FRICTIONAL
TURNING. COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXPECTED TO BE NEAR I-65 BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST A FEW HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS
AGO. ANOTHER SURFACE IF FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BY THE MODELS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVE UP THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DROPS INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS WITH
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOW AND HIGH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BOTH OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) HAD TO RAISE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS NEW GUIDANCE(WHICH IS A
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS) CAME IN MUCH WARMER AND WETTER...ALSO TO
AGREE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES. THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW WITH -20C TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW...THE NEW GUIDANCE HAS LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD SO AT THIS TIME WOULD ONLY EXPECT A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER THE NORTHERN BOUNDARIES...IF THAT. NOT ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY OR CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN FORECAST THAT FAR OUT. /11

&&

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
FORECASTERS ALSO NOTE A MIX OF HIGH/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. THE LOWEST GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 KFT LAYER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL ZONES. WE
ARE OBSERVING A CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) AT THESE HEIGHTS AT KMOB/KBFM...BUT THESE
LAYERS WITHIN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CATEGORY. NOT ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CONCERNS IN
THE NEAR TERM. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WHICH
RAISES TURBULENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TURBULENCE) RISK LATE IN THE FORECAST FROM AROUND 15Z TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. /10


&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 091057
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE EVOLVING SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS STATES STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
12Z WEDNESDAY...BRINING A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA QUICKLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ALL EXTEND
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)
(0-3KM CAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 200 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) NEAR THE COAST) TO THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST)
AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 60 KNOT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST)
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)...WITH BLYR HELICITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY)
VALUES IN THE 300-400 M^2/S^2 RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THESE VALUES OF INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND WIND SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) ARE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES TODAY...BUT HEAVIER TOTALS (LOCALLY UP
TO AROUND 1.0 INCH) CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ZONES. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z WED MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) EARLY IN THE
MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH TO NEAR THE AL AND NWFL COAST BY AROUND 18Z.
DURING THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE WESTERN THE FL
PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE NWFL COAST BY AROUND 18Z...AS 850 JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE.
LATER IN THE DAY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) DEPICTS HEAVY
POST FRONTAL RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) MOSTLY FROM LAYER LIFT NORTH OF A STRONG SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)/LOW AND WARM
CONVEYOR COMBINED WITH RRQ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RRQ) OF UPPER 125 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) MOVING NE JUST TO THE
WEST. BY WED EVENING DEEP H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE SW
PASSING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING THE DAY ON THU. WIDESPREAD
LAYER LIFT IS DEPICTED NORTH AND EAST OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WITH DEEP
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STILL IN PLACE. BOTH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) DEPICT THIS PATTERN
WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SLOWER THAN THE EURO RESULTING IN BETTER PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE DAY ON THU.
BY THIS TIME THINGS START TO GET MORE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK DOWN THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC). BOTH THE 1000-500 AND 100-850
THICKNESS VALUES MOSTLY WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) FALL TO NEAR MARGINAL LEVELS
DURING THE DAY ON THU COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUGGESTING A LIGHT MIX OF SLEET OR SNOW WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA). TO GET THIS RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN STEADY SO TEMPS COOL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT RAIN FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODEL
RUN DUE TO THE BIG SHIFT FROM 00Z AND 06Z DATA LAST NIGHT. BY LATE
THU NIGHT BETTER LIFT BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AS UPPER JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) LIFTS OUT. BY
EARLY FRI MAIN UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) BEGINS TO FLATTEN SLOWLY WITH SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
GENERALLY FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE SE
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). THIS PATTERN GIVES WAY TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN
THE MEDIUM AND LONG PERIODS. /32

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL257 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPIAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA......LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOWWILL BE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPISTRETCHING INTO SOME INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY IN GRASSY AND SOMEELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALINE STRETCHING FROM LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI TO THOMASVILLE ALABAMA.ALTHOUGH SOME ROADS...BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICKSIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TOSURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO END AND MOVE OUT AROUND SUNSET

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 131023
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
423 AM CST SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) DEC 13 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS VEER FROM LIGHT
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN SINCE THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF
THE WIND REMAINS OFF THE LAND WITH VERY LITTLE TIME BEING SPENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS). ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY SUNNY) DAY...WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) SEE SOME
CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER(H2) JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) CRUISES
OVERHEAD...DON`T THINK ENOUGH OF A CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) CANOPY TO KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING AROUND 60 OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS...A BIT COOLER INTERIOR. TONIGHT`S LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND THIS MINIMUM LOW TEMP SHOULD
OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST WIND AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD
LAYER ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SLOW OR STOP THE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL)
CYCLE. 11/DF

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL). MIN TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES...O AS MUCH AS
NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
THAT WILL APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN WILL
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
MS/AL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
TN/KY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASING LOLVL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...COUPLED WITH WEAK DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL) DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS) FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Dense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL346 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2008...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTALABAMA AND ALL OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 AM CST....A WARM...MOIST AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THEFORMATION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE GULF COAST.ALZ059>064-FLZ001>006-161500-/O.NEW.KMOB.FG.Y.0014.081216T0946Z-081216T1500Z/ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SP ANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...F ERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO346 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2008...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOGADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.DENSE FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...WILLMAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST THISMORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE AFTER 9 AM.A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BEREDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU

[Alex]

Statement as of 12:45 am CST on December 18, 2008

... Record high temperature tied at Mobile yesterday...

The high temperature at Mobile Alabama reached 78 degrees yesterday
(wednesday December 17th). This ties the old record of 78 set back
in 1971.

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST MON DEC 22 2008

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING HAS HELD
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS JUST
NOW GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. WE WONT MEET THE HARD
FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND COUNTIES...SO WE WENT AHEAD
AND DROPPED THE HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) FOR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE
ARE SEEING A FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) NO DOUBT. EXPECT WE WILL SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP
OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY MID MORNING AND IT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY
DAY WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE AT 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 1039 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AT 09Z WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AGAIN ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANOTHER HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) INLAND TONIGHT AND PASS IT BACK TO
THE DAYSHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNING TOWARDS MORNING. /05

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...FORECASTERS NOTE MORE AMPLIFICATION TO THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WITH RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND TROFFING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE COLD SHOT WE EXPERIENCE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE HIGH
PLACES THE GULF COAST IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). THERE IS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WHICH LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...BUT STALLS SHORT OF OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
ALOFT DOES NOT FAVOR A PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE
MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. IN FACT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS HEADING
INTO CHRISTMAS.

MAY BE CONTENDING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVECTIVE MARINE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) BOTH
CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY MORNINGS AS DEWPOINTS...RECOVERING INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S THEN...FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) NORTHWARD ACROSS COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER BAYS/INLAND WATERWAYS. AS
DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OPENS UP...AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER PERIOD IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
ALOFT INTERACT WITH STALLED AND NORTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SLIPS SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION AND LOOKS TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF WET
WEATHER. SEE NO REASON TO DEPART FROM THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) WHICH
HAS TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMATOLOGY) THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL BY SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEKEND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY) GOING TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA (20 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS)) FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
GOES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GOES) MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY...THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN
AND WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FORMATION OF SEA FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME AS THE WINDS DECREASE. /05

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 251029 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 429 AM CST THU DEC 25 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS CURRENTLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF MOBILE TO NEAR EVERGREEN WITH DENSE FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FRONT). MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER COASTAL NORTHWEST FLORIDA HAS INHIBITED DENSE FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DENSE FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE DENSE FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA ALTHOUGH ULTIMATELY THE DURATION MAY BE BRIEF. THE SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STAYING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AS THE FRONT (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DRIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=POPS) THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THEN JUST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) IS LIMITED...AND THERE HASN`T BEEN A LIGHTNING (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) STRIKE IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE LAST EVENING...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD GIVEN THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE BAYS AND IMMEDIATE NEAR SHORE WATERS NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN FURTHER OFFSHORE...SUCH AS AT 42040 AND 42039...THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TONIGHT WILL BE VERY EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING LOWERING CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) AND HAVE WORDED SUCH FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY AND VERY MILD TONIGHT...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. /29 .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND FAST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY)...WITH SMALL POPS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR ISOLATED (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FLOW) FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WE WILL KEEP FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY (AREA-WIDE IN THE MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY)...THEN WE WILL DROP THE MENTION OF FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) FOR SATURDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH...ESSENTIALLY LIFTING THE FOG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FOG) INTO A LOW STRATUS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=STRATUS). THE NEXT FRONT (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY. GFS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ARE IN FAIR (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FAIR) AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE MOBILE AND EVERGREEN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO CATEGORICAL (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) POPS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=POPS) GOING IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LIKELY (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE GFS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=GFS) BRINGS 0-1KM MUCAPE TO THE 400-700 J/KG (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=J/KG) RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THAT IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP THAT IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS GIVEN PASSING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=JET) AXIS...BUT THE 850 MB (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=MB) JETMAX PASSES WELL INLAND NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEING CLIPPED BY THE 30-40KT PORTION OF THE JET (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=JET). WITH SUFFICIENTLY BACKED WINDS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND DEEPER ROTATIONS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT RISK (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) OF SEVERE FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS (http://hardcoreweather.com/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE MID SOUTH REGION WE BELIEVE. STAY TUNED. /05 &&

[ROLLTIDE]

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT) BOUNDARY LAYER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY LAYER) WINDS A BIT TO STRONG
TO ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) FORMATION OVER MOST OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) (ACCORDING THE KEVX VWP (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=VWP)) IS
ALLOWING FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IN A FEW LOCALS. GIVEN STRONGER
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY LAYER)...WE FEEL SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT TO
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY OVER THE LAND ZONES AT THIS TIME. THE
STRONGER WINDS IS CREATING A LAYER OF STRATUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) OVER MOST OF THE
FA (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WHICH WILL BREAK UP THIS MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AREA WIDE
DENSE FOG (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)...BUT A LAYER OF DENSE STRATUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS)...INCOMING INSOLATION (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=INSOLATION) WILL
BE LIMITED UNTIL THE AREA SEES SIGNIFICANT BREAKS...BUT GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/AND NGM (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=NGM)
ARE ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA(AWAY FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS). HAVE LEANED THIS
DIRECTION FOR TODAY`S TEMPS.

HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/FWC (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FWC) SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT`S
LOW...EXPECTING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATIONAL COOLING) BEFORE THE STRATUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) MOVES
IN. AM EXPECTING MORE OF A STRATUS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) SCENARIO DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AHEAD OF A SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS (FOR THE MOST PART) IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC SCALE) SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED FOR OUR
REGION BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIME-FRAME. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ARE IN FAIR (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FAIR) AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DOWN TO A
MOBILE TO MONTGOMERY LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH ISOLATED (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS
SATURDAY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT...RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) WEST AND CHANCE EAST BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WE REALLY MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
BRINGING THE FRONT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WEST AND THROUGH MID DAY
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN THE EAST. WITH THE STRONGER
850 MB (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) JETMAX PASSING OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...THE GREATER RISK OF
ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS GIVEN
THE TAIL END OF THE 40 KT (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) LOW LEVEL JET (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) JUST CLIPS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA GIVEN THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND DECREASING MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
THE 00Z GFS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN TRENDING TOWARDS A
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN
CYCLOGENESIS (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY FRIDAY...AND INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. /05

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Mobile, NWS



DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
THE REGION.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY
MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SQUALL LINE
ADVANCES EASTWARD. ALONG THE COAST...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
LATEST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF A CAMDEN TO WIGGINS LINE APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
WILL BECOME STRONG WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED TODAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...STATIONARY FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM NORTH
ALABAMA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A BROAD SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTH LOUISIANA...ANOTHER
WAVE WAS ON THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER NORTH ALABAMA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE OR LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TODAY HELPING TO
PUSH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NEW ORLEANS CURRENTLY
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS MORNING.
STRONGER STORMS...SOME SEVERE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER TEXAS APPROACHES THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET)
INCREASE WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR). THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE) ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT TO
GENERATE WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND EVENT WITH AN
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TORNADO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO) POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE AIR MASS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR MASS) WILL BE
WARMER AND A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. NORMALLY I WOULD EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SEVERE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF
A GOOD SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEAST WINDS PLUS EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)...THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WITH THE SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE). AS TO THE FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH FLOOD)
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH)...AM TEMPTED TO CUT AWAY THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST LESS RAIN THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT
REEXAMINE AFTER 12Z GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. /11

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) PASSES. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREA TO NEAR 60 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE AS WELL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS
INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 210959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE)
WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 8 AM WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING BELOW 26F OVER THE
INLAND COUNTIES AND NEARING 26F OVER THE INLAND PORTION OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...COOL
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE GRADUAL MODERATING TREND CONTINUES FOR
TONIGHT...ALBEIT STILL COLD...BUT NOT SATISFYING HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE)
CRITERIA. /29

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...NOT SEEING A GREAT DEAL OF
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC SCALE) PLAYERS. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OFF THE GULF CONTINUING THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. AS A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) RIDES EASTWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MID
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...AN INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) SIGNAL
SETS UP FRIDAY FROM COASTAL TEXAS...NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. WE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT CHANCE) OF SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFT IN DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND WEAK LIFT.

AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INTO THE WEEKEND ARE RATHER TRICKY AS
WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF PRE AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDS. MAIN CHANGE WILL
BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WE BLENDED
THESE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS CURRENT FORECAST OF SKY COVER THEN...
WOULD ACT TO LIMIT RADIATIVE CHANNEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHANNEL)...KEEPING MINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS).
/10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 251025
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY IS NOW SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LIGHT
N-NE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AT THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AT THE 850MB LEVEL WILL BE MORE SW-WLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WLY). THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC LIFT) PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDINESS. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN...BUT WITH OVERALL LOW
COVERAGE AND LIGHT AMOUNTS. LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD THE LOWER MAVMOS
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) VS THE HIGHER METMOS NUMBERS. 12/DS

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...INITIAL REX BLOCK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=REX BLOCK) OVER EASTPAC HAS
DISAPPEARED SINCE THEN BUT QUICKLY REAPPEARS WITHIN 12 HOURS. WHAT IS
LEFT OF THAT CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF LOW) WHICH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL STILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 WHICH MOVES OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. MEANTIME THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED
BY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC LIFT) AT THE 305K SURFACE WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
WATER VAPOR TO CREATE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY CLOUDY
WITH MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES..PERHAPS A STRAY RAINDROP OR TWO UNTIL
LATER THIS WEEK. 77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

.LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SEEMED TO DIMINISH. ZONAL 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PREDICTED YESTERDAY BY GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS NOW PREDICTED TO DEEPEN IN KEEPING
WITH THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF). BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WITH A STRONG
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) FORMING BEHIND IT OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH NOW PUSH A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN FALLING MEXMOS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH INDICATE A RATHER COLD SATURDAY
MORNING. MAIN REASON WE CHOSE TO JUMP ON IT IS BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED AGREEMENT IN PHASING OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) WITH OTHER MODELS...AS WELL
AS DISCUSSIONS WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. ISC GRIDS MATCH TO A TEE...SO MANY
THANKS TO BMX...TAE...LIX AND JAN FOR THE GREAT COORDINATION EFFORT.

77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.AVIATION...IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) AND MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS) FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
THAT WILL MOVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS) THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE). 12/DS

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

.dense fog advisory has been issued for portions of so. Al
and the western fl panhandle.

.areas of dense fog continue to develop across portions of southern
al & the western fl panhandle. The fog is becoming
widespread & dense along & east of the interstate 65 corridor
late tonight.affecting a large portion of so. Cntl
al.extreme southwestern al.& many areas of the
western fl panhandle. Visibilities will be restricted to less
than one quarter of a mile for many areas through the mid morning
hrs.

Alz056>064-flz001>006-271400-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0004.090127t0502z-090127t1500z/
conecuh-butler-crenshaw-escambia-covington-upper mobile-
upper baldwin-lwr mobile-lwr baldwin-inland escambia-
coastal escambia-inland santa rosa-coastal santa rosa-
inland okaloosa-coastal okaloosa-
including the cities of.evergreen.greenville.luverne.
Brantley.atmore.brewton.east brewton.andalusia.opp.
Prichard.saraland.bay minette.tillmans corner.theodore.
Daphne.fairhope.foley.spanish fort.century.flomaton.
Molino.pensacola.ferry pass.brent.west pensacola.
Bellview.ensley.myrtle grove.jay.pace.milton.
Gulf breeze.crestview.wright.fort walton beach.
Niceville.destin.seminole.eglin afb.valparaiso
1102 pm cst mon jan 26 2009

.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst tuesday.

The natl weather svc in mobile has issued a dense fog
advisory.which is in effect until 9 am cst tuesday.

Visibilities will be restricted below one quarter of a mile for several
areas through the mid morning hrs.

If driving.slow down.use your low beam headlights.& allocate
plenty of braking distance between vehicles.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Wow that's some thick fog !! I will grab some pics when we get some light

[ROLLTIDE]

Mobile NWS


LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY WHILE A WAVE OF
FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING
A COLDER AIRMASS BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL COLD SEASON
THICKNESSES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY...IT APPEARS FROM THE NEW DATA THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ABRUPT END IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER AWAY...QUICKLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY
EVENING. THUS...FORECASTERS ARE CALLING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
END BY MONDAY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE SHOT AT
SEEING THE WHITE STUFF. IT MUST BE SAID THOUGH...THERE IS A FINE
LINE IN THE TIMING THUS FAR AND ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN LOW TRACK
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) IMPACT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) PROFILES
AND ITS POSITIONING WITH REGARD TO THE COLDER AIR. STAY TUNED. THE
STATEMENT FROM THE LAST SHIFT SUMS IT UP FOR THIS PACKAGE AS WELL. WE
CAN ALWAYS POKE A STICK IN THAT HORNETS NEST THIS WEEKEND.

[ROLLTIDE]

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND NE GULF. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN AND WARMER
TEMPS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT THE HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING)
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND MOST AREAS OF
INLAND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...EXCEPT THE INLAND AREAS OF OKALOOSA
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) FALL BELOW HARD FREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE) CRITERIA IN
THESE AREAS DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AND SOIL TYPE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AS ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED AS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE
MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WHERE COOLER NEAR
SHORE SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) SURFACE TEMPS COMBINED WITH BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR TONIGHT
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY CLEAR) SKIES AS UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) FROM BETTER ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). STAYED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
MAVMOS FOR TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT THOUGH ADJUSTED MINS UP A FEW
DEGREES TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM CRESTVIEW TO EVERGREEN AND EASTWARD
DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND PERSISTENT. /32

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL WEST OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW ARE DEFLECTED
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE). A STRONGER UPPER
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RAPIDLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN COMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). TEMPERATURES COOL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /13

[ROLLTIDE]

Short term forecastnational weather service mobile al1155 am cst fri feb 13 2009alz059-060-063-064-flz001>006-132015-escambia-covington-lower mobile-lower baldwin-inland escambia-coastal escambia-inland santa rosa-coastal santa rosa-inland okaloosa-coastal okaloosa-including the cities of...atmore...brewton...east brewton...andalusia...opp...tillmans corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...sp anish fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...f erry pass...brent...west pensacola...bellview...ensley...myrtle grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf breeze...crestview...wright...fort walton beach...niceville...destin...seminole...eglin afb...valparaiso1155 am cst fri feb 13 2009.now...scattered showers will develop during the next couple of hours. Someof these showers may bring strong gusty winds 20 to 25 mph withlight to moderate rain...these showers will continue to move eastat about 35 mph.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
248 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
20S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TODAY SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING TONIGHT...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER INTERIOR ZONES...TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM...BY TUE MORNING AXIS OF WEAK UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) IS JUST WEST OF
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY AROUND
00Z THU. NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE SC/NC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NC)
BORDER...MOVES EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY TUES EVENING GIVING WAY
TO A BETTER RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AS MID TO
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BUILDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL)
DISTURBANCE AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACH FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY
GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) WED AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) AND
EARLY WED NIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) FOR THE AREA
CONTINUES DUE TO A 40 TO 60 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) 850 JET MAX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET MAX) ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LATE WED MORNING AND WED AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT)...RESULTING IN 0-3 KM
HELICITIES RANGING FROM 200 TO 400 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2). MARGINAL INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) IS
NOTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESPECIALLY IF
SOME SUNSHINE POKES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY AROUND 03Z WED EVENING LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION AS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BROAD SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) BUILDS OVER TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY USHERING COOLER/DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). ALOFT MAIN UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) CONTINUES TO DEEP OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SUPPORTING CONTINUED CAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAA) ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). BY SUN UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH BROAD
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) SHIFTING NE TO THE MID ATL REGION EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
A WEAK RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SUN...BUILDING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). WILL USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX)
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS...BUT IF ANY CIGS DO BRIEFLY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE
WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...AND A GRADUALLY
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WITH RESULTANT BUILDING SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL WATERS)
BY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED ON TUE AND IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THU THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT).
/32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
INCREASE TODAY BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AND A DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A FEW ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) THIS MORNING...BUT NO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW AND MID
CLOUDS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY CLOUDY) SKIES PREVAILING. ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES TO
TODAYS FORECAST...WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST
AS THE MARINE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
EASTERN ZONES TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WESTERN ZONES. /22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK...UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH CONVECTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL RAMPING
UP. AN INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM) LIFTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SINK
DEEP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND STALL. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP LAYER LIFT...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) INITIATION WITHIN A MODIFIED AND DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS.
THE BEST COVERAGES FRIDAY LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ATLANTA GA...WESTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM AL...JACKSON MS
AND INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LUVERNE...EVERGREEN...CHATOM ALABAMA TO
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET)
FORMS EARLY SATURDAY (DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW)...HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE AREAS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGEST 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STORM RELATIVE) HELICITIES
FROM 200-300 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2). DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXPERIENCE ROTATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROTATION). THUS...ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY.

LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION. 10-15 DECAMETERS OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEIGHT) FALLS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL CAUSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) OVER NORTHERN
ALABAMA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...WARM AIR ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) WILL CAUSE
ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) TO DESTABILIZE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES INCREASING AND
AVERAGING AROUND 1000 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RESPOND TO THE LOWERING PRESSURE BY INCREASING TO ~50
KNOTS IN THE WARM SECTOR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARM SECTOR). CONSIDERING THIS...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STORM RELATIVE) HELICITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY) PROFILES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT ROTATING
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) UPDRAFTS (ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TORNADOES) SATURDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY BEFORE NOON. HELICITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY) LOWERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUPPORTIVE OF A
TRANSITION TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
MODE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER ON SATURDAY...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND A TRANSITION TO COLDER CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NATION`S HEARTLAND WILL TAP CANADIAN AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ON SUNDAY.
COLDEST NIGHT MONDAY MORNING WHEN MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE YET AGAIN...COLDER BY
A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...THAN ITS PREDECESSOR 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS) AGO. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS THEN. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND BREAKS DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A QUICK MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 280548 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

.UPDATE...WE JUST REMOVED CHOCTAW...WILCOX...BUTLER AND CRENSHAW
COUNTIES FROM TORNADO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) NUMBER 39...SO AS OF 11PM...NONE OF OUR
FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA IS UNDER A WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) OF ANY KIND. THROUGH 09Z (3AM)...PRIMARY
AXIS OF STRONG/SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA
CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED (REF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=REF)
28.00Z KLIX SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING)) AND IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) STRENGTHENS AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND MOVES EAST. THIS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY AROUND 12Z WITH SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE MID TO UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE)
COMBINED WITH GOOD VERTICAL SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL
BE EXITING OUR AREA BY AROUND 20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 12/DS

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH
TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z THU. ALOFT...UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...MOVING
TO JUST WEST OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.
WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EXPECTED TO SET UP LATER
TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING MOSTLY INLAND FROM INSOLATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSOLATION) AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY NEAR THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL STILL FEEL A
BIT COOL MAINLY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR SHORE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE
THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH MAY HAVE TO KEEP A GOOD EYE ON THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. /32

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...FORECAST SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SIMILAR IN THE SENSE THAT DEEPLY REFLECTED LONGWAVE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM PLAINS AND CLOSES OFF OVER GLFMEX ON
FRIDAY. GLFMEX OPENS UP BY THU AFTERNOON. RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) THEN CONTINUES
DEVELOPING EWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EWD) TO MID ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY WEEK WHICH ALLOWS COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO MOVE SEWD INTO LOWER MS VLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VLY) BY EARLY MONDAY. FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BECOMES
STATIONARY TO OUR W. ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) FURTHER W THAN GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). NET EFFECT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT IS THAT RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES CLIMB THROUGH PERIOD AND
MODERATING TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRE-SUPPOSING THAT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS TO OUR W
(AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED)...WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR TUE AND
WED AS NEXT PLAINS S/WAVE LIFTS NEWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NEWD). DOES APPEAR THAT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. /23

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z THU. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH CLOUDS) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NW THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TO THE CAROLINA
COAST. /32

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT EAST THEN
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS LATER IN
THE WEEK...DUE TO BETTER HEATING INSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE DAY OF MIN AFTERNOON RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES IN THE MID
30S RANGE. DID RAISE PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING HGHTS A BIT BECAUSE 88D (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=88D)
VAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VAD) WINDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SCATTERERS MUCH HIGHER PAST TWO DAYS.
CAPPED ALL MIXING HGHTS AT 4900 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) (700-1000 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) HIGHER THAN SHOWN ON
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BUFR SOUNDINGS). SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY LAYER)
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR NW FL
PANHANDLE TO RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
/23

[Cahoots]

Anyone think there is any chance that the NWS will be wrong with the current forcast this weekend? I'm supposed to be on the water this weekend and the current 20 - 25 knot forcast does not sound like fun. I'm hoping that the weather will either speed up or slow down. What's anyone think?

[ROLLTIDE]

Sat up untill 2pm looks very wet with strong to severe storms then some pretty good winds behind the front. If anything the models are starting to slow things down.


HPC thoughts


http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/misc/p_threats.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 250402 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION)...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009


.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 25/06Z...SOME PATCHES OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKEL ALSO WITHIN THIS AREA OVER
NIGHT. ENOUGH WIND THAT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE. BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...SPREADING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /11
&&

.UPDATED MARINE...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SCA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCA) FOR MOBILE BAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DON`T APPEAR TO WANT TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOBILE BAY. TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES)
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL). /11
&&