Mobile, AL

[Alex]

http://www.al.com/news/press-register/metro.ssf?/base/news/1238231728286670.xml&coll=3

==
Baldwin County storms cause damage, but no injuries
Saturday, March 28, 2009
By CRAIG MYERS
Staff Reporter

Families all across Baldwin County were counting their blessings and assessing damage to homes, cars and other belongings Friday morning, after a strong line of thunderstorms unleashed high winds and possible tornadoes.

No one was seriously injured, authorities said, but there were close calls.

In Elsanor, emergency workers, friends and family put a tarp over a hole in the roof of the home of Chad and Marce Dugger.

The couple was supposed to have come home earlier in the week from Birmingham with their newborn baby boy Ethan, said Marce's father, Hubert Dunbar, deputy chief of the Styx River Volunteer Fire Department.

But they stayed a few extra days for doctors to monitor the baby's health, Dunbar said. The infant is fine, Dunbar said, but he wonders what would have happened if Ethan had come home as planned.

"I am so thankful they were not here with that new baby," Dunbar said. "The new crib where they would have had him was covered with insulation."

He said the roof of the house at Newport Road and Baldwin County 85 was lifted up and set back down as an apparent tornado tore through just after 4 a.m.

Across the street, the home of Gene and Pat Morrow was demolished, with the front wall collapsed and more than half of its roof torn off.

Only the portion of the roof over their bedroom and a spare bedroom where two friends were staying that night remained intact — just barely.

"He kept us safe," Pat Morrow said, pointing to a crucifix hanging on the bedroom wall. Cracks were visible all along the top of the ceiling where it had been strained by high winds.

Several other nearby houses had substantial damage to roofs, porches, fences and sheds. Insulation and siding was tossed and twisted around trees.

A few miles away in Robertsdale, in the Crystal Pointe subdivision west of Ala. 59, a large portion of the roof was torn away over the bedroom where Jose Landeros' wife, Kim, was sleeping with their 3-year-old child, he said.

"I am glad my little baby and wife are OK," Landeros said as he and friends removed items from the house.

A few streets over, Michael Brill used plastic sheets to cover not only a hole in his roof but broken-out windows in two vehicles parked in the driveway.

At Baldwin County roads 64 and 83 in Rosinton, Paul Wilcox awoke to find an 18-foot by 36-foot metal carport that covered his RV had been picked up and tossed into a tree next to his house. How was he going to get it down?

"I haven't figured that part out yet," he said, laughing.

County Commission spokeswoman Paula Tillman said no major injuries were reported.

"It was mostly cuts and scratches," she said. "A few people ended up going to the hospital, but it was nothing catastrophic as far as we can tell."

She said parts of U.S. 90, Baldwin County 85 and 87 were closed temporarily in east Baldwin County due to downed power lines.

Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency officials were checking damage in the Elsanor, Rosinton and Styx River communities and distributing tarps and other supplies, she said. The American Red Cross and Baldwin Baptist Association were also providing assistance.

Jeff Garmon, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mobile, said a team will survey damage today to determine whether it was caused by a tornado. He said radar indicated that 2 to 3 inches of rain fell on Baldwin County through Friday morning.

Projections were calling for the Fish River in southwest Baldwin County, where flood stage is 11 feet, to crest this morning near 9 feet. The Styx River in eastern Baldwin County, where flood stage is 12 feet, should crest near 8 feet this evening, according to weather officials.

[ROLLTIDE]

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM RANGE). FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING
EAST...APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM RANGE)
MODELS ON THE FORMATION AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM) ALONG THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE 30/00UTC RUN OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACK...NOW ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA)
TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM). THE UKMET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UKMET) AND
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAS THE LOW MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BEFORE
LIFTING IT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON LOW TRACK/POSITION...THE ORIENTATION
OF THE MODEL QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) FIELDS ARE MORE SIMILAR BUT WITH DIFFERING AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE NEW DATA...A SOUTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS HAS BEEN MADE. IT APPEARS THE RAINS WILL ADD UP MORE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS 2 TO POSSIBLY 4 INCH AMOUNTS
OCCURRING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE WHAT BEARING
THE NEW RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) COMING UP WILL HAVE ON OUR RIVER SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIVER SYSTEM) FORECAST
POINTS...WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS PROBLEMS COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE LONGER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TO OUR EAST...OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN
FLORIDA...RAINS COULD ADD UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES EARLY IN THE OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK).
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) WILL RESIDE. LOOKING AT THE MASS FIELDS AND WIND PROFILES
IN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER LEVEL) STORM SYSTEM
PIVOTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES. AS FAR AS THE WEEKEND...BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) YET AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM/FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADVANCES
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 4 TO
7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO) WHILE DAILY HIGHS NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ON AVERAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR
SKIES GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CIRRIFORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRIFORM) CLOUDS TODAY WHICH BECOME
OVERCAST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERCAST) WITH A BROKEN ALTO DECK FOLLOWING LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN BUT INCREASING
UPPER TO MID CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AT THIS TIME. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHEAST
GULF SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SYSTEM ADVANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INCREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) TIGHTENS DUE TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM.
THE ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THEN MOVING THROUGH LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY) WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SUBSIDES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS EAST OF THE AREA. THEN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPS AS
THE STALLED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES WITH A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPING OVER THE MARINE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SUBSIDES FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. /29


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITIES INDICATE 4 TO 5 HOURS
OF VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS MEETS CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) FOR
THOSE ZONES. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED TUESDAY AS APPROACHING LOW BRINGS
INCREASED MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE REGION. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 73 57 71 55 / 05 10 90 80
PENSACOLA 70 55 69 58 / 00 10 90 90
DESTIN 70 57 68 60 / 00 10 80 90
EVERGREEN 73 46 69 54 / 00 10 70 90
WAYNESBORO 73 51 71 49 / 00 10 80 70
CAMDEN 71 47 69 52 / 00 10 70 80

[Alex]

I also saw some Baldwin County footage from WKRG on *gasp* TWC this morning...

Public Information Statement

Statement as of 3:38 PM CDT on March 30, 2009

... Initial NWS damage assessment results from central Baldwin County
storms of Friday morning 27 March 2009...

A damage survey team from the National Weather Service in Mobile has
completed an initial damage assessment of the storms that moved
through the Robertsdale and Elsanor communities of central Baldwin
County Alabama early on the morning of March 27 2009. The team
found evidence of damaging winds that occurred along the leading
edge of a severe Bow echo that moved through the Robertsdale and
Elsanor areas between 4 am and 415 am CDT Friday morning.

The team found a path of straight line wind damage from 200 to 400
yards wide and was near 2 miles in length. The worst damage along
the path occurred near the County Road 85 area just north of U.S.
Highway 90 where 6 single family homes of varying construction
techniques experienced significant structural damage to roofs, and
walls. Several out-buildings and smaller structures were also
destroyed near several residences along the path of damaging winds.
All of the evidence was consistent with a 120 mph straight line wind
event where all of the debris was blown in a single direction... from
west-southwest to east-northeast.

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OCCLUDES WHILE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STEADILY ADVANCES EASTWARD AND MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A LINE OF ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). AREA
RADARS SHOW THAT ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC LIFT) OVER THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING COVERAGE
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
FOLLOWING FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE) IS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) LOOP/SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AS IT ADVANCES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THE SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL LINE) OR SEMBLANCE
THEREOF WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
A WELL DEFINED VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) PROFILE WITH DRIER AIR FROM 750-550 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) AND
SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 700-1200 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES AS HIGH AS 300 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2). THE HELICITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HELICITY) DROPS
DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DUE TO WINDS VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE
ADVANCING FROM THE WESTERN GULF...BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. HAVE LEFT IN
THE MENTION OF SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
ELEVATED DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT FOR THE MOST PART...RESULTING IN
WET BULB ZERO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WET BULB ZERO) VALUES OF 10-11KFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT`S THINKING...THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES UP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT.

HPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC) QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) GRAPHICS LOOK SENSIBLE WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AMOUNTS OF 2-3.5
INCHES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND 1-2 INCHES INLAND. THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHER QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) WITH 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 2.5-3.5 INCHES FOR THE LAND AREAS DUE TO FOCUSING OF
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OFFSHORE WILL HAVE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THE FISH GENERALLY DON`T MIND. DEBATED WHAT TO DO
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) AS THE 24 HOUR QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) TOTALS ARE 1-3 INCHES
LESS THAN WHAT SATISFIES EVEN THE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH FLOOD) GUIDANCE (SEE
ATLFFGMOB WHICH HAS 4.7-6.4 INCHES FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 6
HOURS) WHICH MAKES EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE STORM SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STORM SCALE)
DIFFICULT TO REACH THIS LEVEL. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) AS IS FOR
NOW GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND LET THE EVENT PLAY OUT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL EXACERBATE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS IN THE
AREA BUT THE LATEST RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ANTICIPATE JUST A MODEST
UP TICK IN RIVER STAGE READINGS WITH AN OTHERWISE DECREASING TREND.
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...REFER
TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) WEB SITE:

AHPS.SRH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRH).NOAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOAA).GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WFO)=MOB

/29


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY...TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT IS ADVERTISED IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED). THUS...WE
WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
I-65 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN GULF BOUNDARY BEGINS
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DUE TO A DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM) WHICH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE). AS THIS EVOLVES...THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE)
LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE) RANGING
FROM 2500/3500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) BY THURSDAY AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). ANOTHER CONCERN IS AN
INTENSIFYING H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW LEVEL JET) OF NEAR 55 KNOTS THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CONSIDERING THESE ITEMS...ALONG WITH INCREASED
DEEP LAYER LIFT WITH APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE TSTMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN MORNING PACKAGE...BUT REFRAIN ON BEING
OVERLY SPECIFIC ON MODE AS WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE FORECAST PACKAGES
TO ASSESS THIS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK RAINFREE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
INTENSIFYING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...DRAWING DEEP GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) NORTHWARD
OVER THE AREA. DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS LIFTED BY AN APPROACHING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
ON SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WELL AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. SAW NO REASON TO DEPART FROM THE
EXTENDED RANGE MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) TEMPERATURE FORECAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS AS A CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) NEAR 2 KFT FORMS THIS MORNING. WILL
HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING MID MORNING THEN PREVAILING
LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
DECREASED VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) AND LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /29

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

.FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE MS AND
THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SW AL.

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.BRINGING
MUCH COLDER & DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. A BRISK NW WIND LATER
TONIGHT & DURING THE DAY MON WILL DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LWR 30S FOR A FEW HRS AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR SE MS & THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
AL. THE UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY LOCATIONS.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-060345-
/O.CON.KMOB.FZ.A.0002.090407T0800Z-090407T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.CENTURY.
FLOMATON.MOLINO.JAY.CRESTVIEW.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.
BEAUMONT.NEW AUGUSTA.LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.
LUCEDALE
244 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2009

.FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LOW TEMPS TUES MORNING ARE FORECAST IN THE LWR 30S FOR A
FEW HRS AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SE MS AND
THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SW AL. UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS & OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$

[Alex]

A strong cold front with no precipitation but tons of clouds...

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) TODAY. THIS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ALSO FARTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN PAINTING BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) AND PARTS NORTH. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED NORTH...WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) BARELY GRAZING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) ON SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC)`S LATEST
DAY ONE OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK). /16

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BY SATURDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND POSSIBLY EAST OF FORECAST AREA.
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD BE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT MAY STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE BEACHES EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. UPPER(H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5)) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL BE EASING
EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY BEGIN TO
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A PERRY COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TO THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BEGINS TO EASE NORTH AND THE COOLER
AIR TO THE NORTHEAST IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE WARMER AIR. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD ON EASTER MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NORTH
AND ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STARTS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF
FORECAST AREA. /11

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)RAIN WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND OUT OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MIGHT BE A BIT OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY
EVENING AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THE UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TURNS ZONAL BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ZONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL%20FLOW) WILL
INSURE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL NOT GET VERY FAR SOUTH AND WILL
BE POISED TO RETURN AT THE NEXT CHANCE. NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TANDEM
MOVES EAST OUT THE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HEADS NORTHEAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. /11

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)STRONG ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL KEEP A STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS)
LAYER FLOWING NORTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) LEVELS THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...THEN
RISE.AS A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL
INTO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) LEVELS TONIGHT...LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORN. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYSTEM NORTH OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH...THEN EASE TONIGHT. /16

&&

.MARINE...SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL EASE TONIGHT AS A TRAILING
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ON THE OFFSHORE
ZONES WILL BE THE LAST TO SETTLE...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT)
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO COVER. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL SETTLE OVER
NORTHERN GULF WATERS SATURDAY...MAKING DIRECTIONS A BEAR TO HANDLE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUDNAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL SWITCH WINDS TO ONSHORE...BUT AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS BEING ADVERTISED MOVING OFF
THE AL/NW FL GULF COAST TUESDAY. WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS...WINDS SWITCH BACK TO ONSHORE YET AGAIN.
/16

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 162041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN STATES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE A SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WHICH VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE EASTERN STATES SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS
SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM PER HPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC)
DISCUSSION. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVES IT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SQUALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL)
LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS ALMOST 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND THEN
GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE AND ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. INTERESTINGLY...THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HINTS AT A SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL%20LINE) MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING TO THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). TIMING CONCERNS ASIDE...SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) IS CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT PRECEDES THIS SYSTEM MAY CONSUME MUCH
OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND CONTINUES NOT TO HAVE THE AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR A SEVERE RISK...BUT STILL THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS PRESENT AND HAVE UPDATED THE HWO PRODUCT
TO REFLECT THIS. IF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) OR ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SOLUTIONS PAN OUT AND
SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) IS PRESENT WITH THE EXPECTED
SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL%20LINE)...MORE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) IF THE WARM GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) TEMPS OCCUR...0-1 KM
HELICITIES WILL BE UP TO 200-250 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2)...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WITH MENTION OF THE POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO MILD ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT)...THEN
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
STAYED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON SUNDAY WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TAPERING OFF TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE AT NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MILD ON SUNDAY. /29

[ROLLTIDE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) MASS FIELDS SHOWS STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EASTWARD INTO
ARIZONA. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER STORM SYSTEMS...A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMINESS OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EASTWARD ADVANCE OF UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...WILL ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF TODAY. THIS
SUGGESTS A GOOD WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. ALONG THE BEACHES...SLIGHTLY MODIFIED WITH
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OFF THE WATER...SO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 THERE.
WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHWARD PROPAGATING COASTAL SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF CU (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CU) IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN ALONG IT DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE). ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...A STRIPE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN ZONES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON AVERAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG). /10

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS
GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERNMOST STATES WITH A SURFACE HIGH
MEANDERING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUES EXCEPT FOR BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH WARM DAYTIME
AND MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS WITH A FAST
ZONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL%20FLOW) DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EJECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT THE RIDGING LIMITS THE EFFECTS ON THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES GRADUALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) AND WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES
AND AN ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) WILL START TO BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). WILL RETURN SMALL POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO THE
FORECAST ON TUESDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...LATEST 11-3.5 MICRON (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICRON) SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) INDICATES SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS (<1 KFT)
FORMING OVER THE INTERIOR. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALONG THE COASTAL TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF)
SITES...WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS)/BR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BR) MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COULD SEE SOME DAYTIME CU (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CU) ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) BY MID DAY NORTH OF THE
BEACHES. GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 15Z FOR MOB-BFM-PNS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PNS)
TERMINALS. /10

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL THEN
HOLD...OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A STRONGER SOUTHEAST WIND AND A LONGER
FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) LATE IN THE FORECAST...SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL TREND HIGHER LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND
TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE) RANGES NEAR 1.5 FEET ON AVERAGE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE)...RIP
CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. /10

[Alex]

/Wow

http://www.al.com/news/press-register/metro.ssf?/base/news/1240478165257170.xml&coll=3
--

Longtime WALA-TV meteorologist retiring
Thursday, April 23, 2009
By MIKE BRANTLEY
TV & Media Editor

John Edd Thompson will sign off the air at Fox affiliate WALA-TV10 for the last time on June 5.

A fixture on WALA for 32 years, the longtime chief meteorologist joined station managers in announcing his retirement Wednesday afternoon.

"John Edd has covered every major storm that's entered the Gulf of Mexico for more than three decades," said WALA General Manager Matt Pumo. "He has an unparalleled connection with Gulf Coast viewers. His dedication, commitment and trademark sense of humor will be dearly missed."

WALA said it will announce plans for Thompson's replacement in the coming weeks.

A message board on the station's Web site, at fox10tv.com, has been set up for viewers to wish Thompson a happy retirement.

"After all of these years, people still see me and say, 'Hey, John Edd,'" Thompson said in a media statement. "I'm from Mobile, and I've worked here most of my life."

Thompson, 66, told the Press-Register on Wednesday that his memorable career moments include covering Hurricane Frederic in 1979 and finding out while he was on the air that his Dauphin Island home was destroyed by 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

"I didn't realize it was gone until I saw the aerial pictures the next morning," Thompson said. "Basically, since we were on the air, I just kind of gulped and kept going."

Afterward, Thompson moved inland to a neighborhood in west Mobile. In retirement there, he expects to tackle a long "honey-do list," he said.

"I will do a bit more on my hobbies than I've been doing," he added.

Thompson's interests include playing golf and writing songs. He is a founding member of the Mobile Songwriters Association and a member of the Nashville Songwriters Association International. Also, he serves on the board of the Frank Brown Songwriters Festival that is held annually in south Baldwin County.

He said the "weather business" has changed a great deal over the years.

"This line of work kind of tapped me on the shoulder," he said. "I was an announcer, then a news reader. Then somebody said, 'Hey, can you do weather tonight?' That was about 38 years ago."

Thompson augmented that early on-the-job training and his University of Alabama communications studies by earning a degree in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State University.

"When we started, all we had was a little bit of rip-and-read paper and a grease pencil and a map," Thompson recalled. "Now, we probably have 10 or more computers in the weather office, all doing different things."

Thompson has been named "Best Weather Anchor" several times by the Mobile Press Club, which in 2005 honored him with its John Harris Achievement Award.

[ROLLTIDE]

FOG


ense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
307 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
UNTIL 8 AM THIS...

.PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA CONTINUES TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND AND WESTWARD
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO REDUCED
SPEEDS AND USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING IN DENSE FOG. EXTRA TIME
SHOULD ALSO BE GIVEN WHEN DRIVING TO MORNING DESTINATIONS.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241300-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FG.Y.0014.090424T0807Z-090424T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...TILLMANS CORNER...
THEODORE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...
PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...
ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
307 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA CONTINUES TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND AND WESTWARD
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO REDUCED
SPEEDS AND USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING IN DENSE FOG. EXTRA TIME
SHOULD ALSO BE GIVEN WHEN DRIVING TO MORNING DESTINATIONS. .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 251938
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
238 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) APR 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF AMERICA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO KEEP A LITTLE
LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IN THE PICTURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY RAIN. UPPER TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN BEFORE
HAVING MUCH IF ANY EFFCT ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DID LOWER THE MINIMUMS A LITTLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE
IT HAS BEEN RUNNING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. HIGH
LOOK OK...NEXT FEW DAYS A TAD COOLER IN THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY
LOWER 80S...MOSTLY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) AND A FEW MORE
CLOUDS. /11

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG
TERM WAS TO LOWER OR REMOVE THE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FROM TUESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW
AS UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES ZONAL AND DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN WILL BE
LACKING. /11

&&

.MARINE...1028+ MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT. LATEST
DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS THOUGH HAVE NOT COME UP AS EXPECTED DUE TO
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT). DUE TO THE OBSERVED DATA...HAVE MADE A
LOWER ADJUSTMENT TO THE WINDS IN THE NEAREST TERM. MEANWHILE A
FRONTAL ZONE...DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE HIGH GIVES WAY A BIT
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE
CLOSER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THEN PULLS
BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE PACKAGE AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS...JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL TREND
HIGHER...RANGING FROM 4 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE DUE
TO THE LONGER DURATION OF SOUTHEAST FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH). WINDS DECREASING AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
TRENDING LOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

BEACH PATROLS HAVE RAISED YELLOW AND RED FLAGS TODAY DUE TO OBSERVED
FREQUENCY OF RIP CURRENTS. BEACH GOERS SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND FLAG WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) SYSTEMS BEFORE ENTERING THE SURF
THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CANCELED THE RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) A BIT
EARLIER...SURFACE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) WILL NOT MAKE 4 HOURS BELOW 35
PERCENT...MAY NOT EVEN MAKE 35 PERCENT. WIND HAS WENT SOUTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) GUIDELINES TO BE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). WILL BE AT LEAST ONE MOR MORNING OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG). /11

[ROLLTIDE]

FDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THE
AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 9 AM...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) SKIES EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE
WEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) ACROSS THE REGION SLIGHTLY.
WITH THIS...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) WINDS TO BE RATHER GUSTY AGAIN TODAY FROM FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO OCCASIONAL MOSTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLOUDY) SKIES COULD BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE). MAX TEMPS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER INTERIOR ZONES
TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION W/ SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH CENTERED
NEAR OR ALONG CAROLINA COAST. UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THROUGH 12Z THU GIVING WAY TO A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS A GRADUAL INCREASED OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL CONTINUE GIVING WAY TO BETTER LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) EACH NIGHT. TO THE WEST A DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THU
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY THU LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY A
MIX OF THE AVN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AVN) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SUGGEST A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES
TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EVENTUALLY PUSHING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SE TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING OR
LIFT TO THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) RESULTING IN SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATE SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MAIN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO THE MOVE SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PDS. /32

[Alex]

Dry dry dry now, is becoming reminiscent of a Central Florida spring now...

[Alex]

http://www.al.com/news/press-register/metrobriefs.ssf?/base/news/1242638156202130.xml&coll=3
===
Waterspout sighted in bay
Monday, May 18, 2009

Staff Report

A waterspout was sighted in southeastern Mobile Bay shortly after noon Sunday, but the Baldwin County Sheriff's Office reported no damage or injuries.

Gene Jacobi of the Mobile office of the National Weather Service said a special marine warning was issued at 12:25 p.m. for the waterspout after it was first reported about six miles from the mouth of Weeks Bay at Mullet Point.

Jacobi said the waterspout dissipated as soon as it reached land just south of Mullet Point.

A fast-moving cold front from the west interacted with a stream of storms coming north from the Gulf of Mexico, causing the series of storms, which struck greater Mobile in the early afternoon, Jacobi said.

The passing of the front quickly dropped the temperature at least 10 degrees, with more cooling expected as night progressed, he said.

[ROLLTIDE]

Sweet



0
FXUS64 KMOB 190903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AM TAKING A HINT FROM YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST AND HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S HIGH`S DOWN A BIT FROM GUIDANCE.
AIRMASS IS A BIT MOISTER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
SOME WRAP AROUND STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) WORKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) EARLY IN
THE DAY. AFTER LOOKING AT THE GOES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GOES) PRECIP H20 LOOP FOR THE LAST
24HRS...THIS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF...SO AM EXPECTING A
DRIER DAY TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS LOW. /16

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS START WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OR NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. THERE HAS BEEN MARKEDLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT AT LEAST THE IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SUPPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST BOTH DAYS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS...20 TO 30 MPH...FOR THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST BETWEEN THE GULF SYSTEM AND THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER
THE EASTERN STATES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS BUT WAS NOT ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THAT IT`S NOT WITHIN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME FOR THE PRODUCT. WILL
GO WITH A BLEND OF MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) AND MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WEATHER
SITUATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND GEM ON THE HANDLING OF THE GULF SYSTEM WHICH
COMPOUNDS THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES
EXIST HOWEVER ON MOVING THE FEATURE TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY THEN INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY. THIS EVOLUTION SUPPORTS CONTINUING GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT PIN DOWN PERIODS WHERE BETTER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
WILL BE SUPPORTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /29

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. /16

&&

.MARINE...BIGGEST BEAR FOR THE MARINE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA. INTO
THURS MORN...THE GLOBAL MODELS MEANDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER) THIS SYSTEM AND IT`S
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WESTWARD...TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FROM
THERE...SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING IT NORTH TOWARDS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY(GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)).
OTHER GUIDANCE TAKES IT DIRECTLY NORTH FROM THURS...REACHING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY(ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)). HAVE WENT WITH A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR THE FORECAST.

THIS MEANS FOR OUT LITTLE PART OF THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) A TRANSITION OF THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
FROM NORTHEAST TO MORE EAST INTO THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR GALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GALE) LEVELS. AM KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH WILL BE MENTIONING OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE GALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GALE) LEVELS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) LEVELS INTO
FRIDAY...LONGER OFFSHORE. /16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE GONE WITH A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) TODAY FOR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. SURFACE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. /29

[ROLLTIDE]

Jason Smith is the new Chief Met at Ch 10 and Jim Loznica was fired from 15

[Alex]

http://www.al.com/news/press-register/metro.ssf?/base/news/1242983762119140.xml&coll=3

Loznicka out at WPMI; Smith to replace John Edd Thompson at WALA
Friday, May 22, 2009
By MIKE BRANTLEY
TV & Media Editor

NBC affiliate WPMI-TV15 fired Chief Meteorologist Jim Loznicka on Wednesday night following the station's 10 p.m. newscast, according to station management.

The same night, Fox affiliate WALA-TV10 revealed that Jason Smith would succeed that station's outgoing Chief Meteorologist John Edd Thompson, who is retiring next month after 32 years at WALA and 40 years on the air in Mobile.

Loznicka told the Press-Register on Thursday that he wasn't given a specific reason for his termination.

"Sometimes your best is not enough," he said.

An employee at WPMI since 2002 and chief meteorologist since 2007, Loznicka said that local and corporate managers informed him that they "wanted to go in a different direction."

"I was told I was not fired for anything I did or did not do," he said.

Shea Grandquest, general manager of WPMI, told the Press-Register on Thursday that he was unable to share specific reasons for the move.

"All I've said is that we appreciate Jim for his years of service and that we wish him well in his official endeavors," Grandquest said.

At competitor WALA, Thompson told viewers that Smith would step in as his replacement. Thompson, 66, will sign off the air for the last time on June 5.

Smith went to work as a meteorologist at WALA in 1999.

"This is a tremendous opportunity, and it's a big-time honor to get to come in and follow in the footsteps of John Edd," Smith said on the air.

WPMI's Grandquest said that hiring a new chief meteorologist is his station's "A-1 priority right now."

He said he anticipates finding a permanent replacement for Loznicka "within 60 days."

"We already have candidates in the pipeline," he said.

In the interim, he said, "our weather team of Kelly Foster and Deitra Tate will be rotating."

Loznicka has worked at stations in Gainesville, Fla., Greenville, Miss., and Meridian, Miss.

He said he expects that his next TV job will be outside Mobile.

"Right now, I am pursuing things out of town," he said. "I would love to stay in Mobile. I've been here a long time and know a lot of people. I would stay if I could."

[ROLLTIDE]

SKYWARN Training from NWS Mobile / Pensacola
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/images/skywarnc_001.gif
If you are interested in becoming a severe storm spotter for the National Weather Service and want to receive SkyWarn training, contact your local county emergency management agency or contact our Warning Coordination Meteorologist via email at Jeff.Garmon@noaa.gov.





Scheduled SKYWARN training sessions from WFO Mobile




[/URL] Wednesday May 27, 2009 in Butler County, AL. Basic storm spotter training session starting at 6 PM CDT at the Greenville Public Library in Greenville, AL. For more information contact Robert Luman, Executive Director Butler County EMA, at 334-382-7911.
Thursday May 28, 2009 in Mobile County, AL. Basic storm spotter training session starting at 6 PM at the Mobile County EMA Emergency Operations Center. For more information contact Mobile County Emergency Management at 251-460-8000.
Tuesday July 7, 2009 in Monroe County, AL. Basic storm spotter training session starting at 6 PM at the Monroe County Emergency Management Office in Monroeville, AL. For more information, contact Monroe County EMA at 251-575-8154.
[URL="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/basicspot.pdf"] (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php)

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 051206 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
705 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.UPDATE [TODAY]...AXIS OF UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) POSITIONED FROM NASHVILLE TN THROUGH
THE HEART OF WFO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WFO) MOBILE`S COUNTY WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) AREA HAS ALLOWED DEEPEST
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WITH A DRIER...DEEPER LAYER NW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THIS AM OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IS SPINNING
SLOWLY EAST. DUE TO RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS OF DIMINISHING COVERAGES TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...FORECASTERS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX)/POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) AND QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) GRIDDED DATA IN TRIMMING BACK COVERAGES OF WET
WEATHER. WE HAVE THE HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THIS AM EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...TAPERING OFF SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS. SATELLITE AND
FORECAST RAOBS SUGGESTS WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH WRAPAROUND LOW
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN MIXING OUT. /10

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICRON) SATELLITE PRODUCT
ALONG WITH FORECAST RAOBS SUGGESTS WE WILL CONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONT) TO DEAL WITH POST
FRONTAL CIGS THRU AT LEAST 18Z AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). A MIX
OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) HEIGHTS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. LOW CIGS ARE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) TO
MIX OUT WITH BASES MOVING TO VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) LEVELS THRU COURSE OF AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). WE HAVE
A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 15Z AT PNS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PNS) FOR POTENTIAL OF -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA). OTRW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OTRW)...IT
LOOKS TO BE LOW CLOUDS AS THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION OPS. CAVOK
AFTER 21Z. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. /10

.........................FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................

CONSIDERING DRIER DEEP LAYER AIRMASS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR 2ND PERIOD. DAILY HIGHS LOOK TO COME IN AT THE LOWER
80S ON AVERAGE WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
INLAND...TO MID/UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE PRELIMINARY WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE PULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PULSE) DOWNBURSTS. /10

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SLIPS FARTHER TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WE
KEEP THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) AFTERNOON STORMS
IN THE EAST ON MONDAY (ALONG THE RIBBON OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
THAT THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW). WE STILL
THINK THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME NEXT WEDNESDAY AS WE SEE A RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH OUR
AREA UNDERNEATH A MIDLEVEL WEAKNESS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE MEXICO
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AND A WEAKER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS (AS DEPICTED IN
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAS THE MEXICAN RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
DOMINATING FARTHER INTO THE GULFMEX). BASICALLY WE KEEP A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
BEYOND NEXT TUESDAY. /05

&&

.MARINE...FOLLOWING WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF MAKES FOR A LIGHT AND
SOMETIMES VARYING WIND SPEED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20SPEED) SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AS THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED...EXPECT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WITH MORE
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT. LATEST BUOY DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS SHOWS 3
TO 4 FOOT SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) INITIALLY. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THIS IN
THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN TREND LOWER BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUGGEST ANYTHING GREATER THAN 2 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO NEAR
DESTIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING FARTHER TO THE EAST AS WELL. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A DRIER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TRANSPORT
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY THEN SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. /05

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 150950 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... AMENDED FIRE DISCUSSION: DISPERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DISPERSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) DEEP LAYER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAT%20INDEX) VALUES FROM 100 TO
105 THIS AFTERNOON. THE MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY) CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE)
INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. THESE AREAS MAY
AGAIN BE GLANCED BY A THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) COMPLEX LATER TODAY. STRAIGHT
LINE WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING)
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

DESPITE LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...TODAY`S PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST)
RISK IS HIGH. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM....(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS SHOWN. A FEW VORTLOBES WILL DIG INTO
AN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER WESTLANT INTO EASTERN US ALL OF WHICH OVERLAYS
A HIGH EXTENDING FROM GMEX TO WESTANT. CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM NORTH TX/OK TO ONSLOW BAY...WILL BRING TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) WHICH THROW
OUT COLD OUTFLOWS DRIVING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AL. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BELOW SEASONAL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEACH. PRECIP THIS YEAR IS A FEW INCHES
BEHIND...AND SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) IS OVERWHELMING ANY UPWARD FORCING
THAT CAN BE MUSTERED BY THE SEABREEZE...IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TO CATCH UP. MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 EACH DAY. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. /77

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGES SHOWN TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HINT
OF WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER FEATURE BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
WAVENUMBER 5 PROGS INDICATE A REX BLOCK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=REX%20BLOCK) IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GMEX
WHICH COULD DRAW MORE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) INTO THE MIX EARLY NEXT WEEK. 24 HR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HR)
MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ARE IN FACT DRIFTING BACK UP INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY MON.
/77

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY...

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-191745-
/O.NEW.KMOB.HT.Y.0001.090619T1500Z-090620T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...TILLMANS CORNER...
THEODORE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT.. .
NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO
435 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE. WHEN COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80...AN INCREASE IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

[ROLLTIDE]

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
ENTIRE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

... A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ALONG WITH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO 108 TO
114 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-220030-
/O.CON.KMOB.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090622T1500Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.HT.Y.0004.090622T1500Z-090623T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...TILLMANS CORNER...
THEODORE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...
PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...
ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 99 TO 103 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 80S TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...SLOW DOWN AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. DO NOT DRINK ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 211938
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
238 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...IN A FEW WORDS.
PERSISTENT HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS! LATEST 1000-850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) AND SOME
DEEPER LAYER THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HOTTEST OF AIR IN SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVER OUR CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) NEXT TWO DAYS. BOTH AFTERNOONS THE LATTER VALUES TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 1455 M. OUR AREA IS RIGHT UNDER THAT PORTION OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
WHERE SINKING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ARE GREATEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS MORNING OF 78-85 DEG ACROSS REGION HAVE PUSHED US
INTO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EXCESSIVE%20HEAT) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST. WE UPGRADED
EARLIER WITH SOME LOCALES REACHING INTO THE 110-114 DEG RANGE FOR
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF THE SEA-BREEZE SOME LOCALES WHERE NEAR 98F WITH 75F DEWPOINTS
WHICH YIELDS 111 DEG(F). WE ALSO EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVY) INLAND ONE
ROW OF COUNTIES BECAUSE SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE OBSERVED TO BE 78-79 DEG
RANGE AND THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR TNT.

HAVE BEEN FORECASTING HERE FOR FIFTEEN YEARS AND HAVE NEVER
PERSONALLY RECEIVED A MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE PACKAGE WHERE EVERY FORECAST SITE
IN OUR AREA BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS (NPA..DTS AND HRT)
ARE FORECASTING 100 DEG(F) OR HIGHER FOR A MAX TEMP TOMORROW AND OVER
HALF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY. IN A NW PBL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PBL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...EVEN THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS ARE NOT SPARED WITH THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) FORECASTING 102F AT KPNS AND
THE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) 101F. WE ARE CERTAINLY EXPERIENCING ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER AND IT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE THAT ANY MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) IS
FORECASTING SUCH TEMPS WITH THIS DEGREE OF ACCURACY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACCURACY) GIVEN HOW A MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)
WORKS. COMBINED WITH DRY GROUND CONDITIONS ALL INCOMING SOLAR
RADIATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATION) FROM THE SUN IS MANIFESTING AS SENSIBLE HEATING VERSUS
EVAPORATING GROUND MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE). THE MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

CHECKING THE RECORDS FOR KMOB...IF WE HIT 95 DEG(F) THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...IT WILL BE THE EIGHTH LONGEST CONSECUTIVE STRING FOR THE
PERIOD OF RECORD...AND IF WE HIT 95 DEG THE NEXT FIVE DAYS IT WILL BE
TIED FOR FIFTH ALL TIME.

AS L/WAVE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION OFF US EAST COAST...DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL SHIFT WWD A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MIX DOWN MON
PM AS IT ADVECTS SEWD BETWIXT AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES IN TROPOS MID-
LEVELS. THIS COULD HELP...BUT AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THE WAY THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE TENDENCY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK WWD MOVEMENT OF
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) IN TIME.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL NOT GO BELOW THE MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) AND WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS
~3 DEG(F) ON AVERAGE. EXPECT 107-114 DEG F FOR HEAT INDICES AGAIN ON
MONDAY...AND NOT TOO MUCH LOWER ON TUE. IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS THAT TUE PM SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) DEWPOINTS MAY EVEN BE HIGHER THAN TODAY AS
BACKDOOR UPPER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES ON W SIDE OF E COAST TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF). /23

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST
PACKAGE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...BUT WITH A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT
TIMETABLE...THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP BEING WEST OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...OVER THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THROUGH THE LASTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE PLAINS...WHILST THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) PUSHES THE
SYSTEM MORE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PUSH DRAW THE SURFACE LOW
WEST...TO OVER THE SABINE RIVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO NEAR SEASONAL PERCENTAGES ACCORDING TO THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. WITH THE INCREASE IN POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OFF THE GULF...AREAS
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS.
/13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IN THE MORNING THAT BECOMES WEST TO
SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL INCREASE SOME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY
DEEP MIXING LAYERS THROUGH TUESDAY. DISPERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DISPERSION) VALUES WILL REMAIN
HIGH AS A RESULT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST LATE TUESDAY
WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST PICTURE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER WESTWARD. /23

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 222021
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
321 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE RECORD HIGH HAS ALREADY BEEN
SHATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AT PENSACOLA AS THEY HAVE REACHED AN
IMPRESSIVE 101 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON (OLD RECORD OF 98 SET BACK IN
2006.) MOBILE HAS REACHED 99 SO FAR TODAY...WHICH IS 1 DEGREE AWAY
FROM TYING THE RECORD HIGH OF 100 SET ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1881.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HEAT WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAT%20WAVE) IS NOT OVER WITH YET AS WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF OPPRESSIVE LOW TEMPS NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EAST
COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) SLIDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST. GIVEN
THE EXCESSIVELY HIGH TEMPERATURES...ONE WOULD THINK THAT WITH A
BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD
REALLY INCREASE. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE THIS GO AROUND. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)/TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) CONFIGURATION...OUR FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BE DEEP NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...AIDING IN A VERY DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) WITH HIGH LCL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LCL) HEIGHTS. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE HARD FOR
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TO DEVELOP IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR ANY SHORTWAVES THAT MAY DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY.
FOR NOW WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) FORCING...HAVE TAPERED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) AND CONFINED TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DO NOT BUDGE MUCH TOMORROW...SO TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO CLOSE TO
THE VALUES SEEN TODAY...UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 110 ALONG THE COAST TO 104-108
INLAND...THUS THE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AS IS.
GIVEN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER)...DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65...WHICH WOULD CUT
DOWN ON HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
GOOD AGREEMENT OF A WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVING WEST INTO LOUISIANA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS STILL LACKING ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. AS THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW TREKS WEST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL COMMENCE
ONCE AGAIN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING OUR
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS. THEREFORE...AFTER ANOTHER SCORCHER ON WEDNESDAY (MID
TO UPPER 90S)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A TYPICALLY DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) CHANCE OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) (POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON)...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE.

[ROLLTIDE]

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES OF SW AL & THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

.A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUES FOR
THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SE MS.SOUTHWEST
AL.& THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE & ALOFT CENTERED OVER
THE LWR MS RIVER WILL DRIFT WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT & EARLY TUESDAY. A VERY HOT & MUGGY AIR
MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.RESULTING
IN A CONTINUATION OF OPPRESSIVE HIGH HEAT INDEX READINGS. HIGHEST
HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN RANGE BETWEEN 105 & 112
DEGREES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS ON TUESDAY.
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE.WITH
MAX TEMPS TUES AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST & AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 80
DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST & IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND
AREAS.

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-231015-
/O.CON.KMOB.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090624T0000Z/
LWR MOBILE-LWR BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.MOBILE.TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.
FOLEY.SPANISH FORT.PENSACOLA.FERRY PASS.BRENT.
WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.MYRTLE GROVE.PACE.
MILTON.WRIGHT.NICEVILLE.SEMINOLE.EGLIN AFB.VALPARAISO
912 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

.EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPS & HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT STRESS ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES THIS HIGH CAN CAUSE EVEN THE MOST PHYSICALLY FIT TO
SUCCUMB TO HEAT EXHAUSTION OR EVEN WORSE.DEADLY HEAT STROKE.
PERSONS PLANNING ON BEING OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED TIME ARE URGED
TO CONSUME PLENTY OF LIQUIDS.ESPECIALLY WATER.WEAR LIGHT
COLORED & LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.& TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM. THE BEST TIME TO
PERFORM OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IS DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
10 AM.OR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HRS AFTER 6 PM. RESTRICT
INTAKE OF ALCOHOLIC & CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES.

CHILDREN SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION IF
PLAYING OUTDOORS.& CHECK UP ON RELATIVES & NEIGHBORS. THE
ELDERLY SHOULD FREQUENTLY BE CHECKED ON AS WELL. PETS SHOULD BE
PROVIDED PLENTY OF FRESH WATER & SHADE.& BE MONITORED
FREQUENTLY.

&&

$$

[Alex]

Record Report

Statement as of 05:37 PM CDT on June 22, 2009

... Record high temperature set at Mobile...

a record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Mobile today.
This ties the old record of 100 set in 1881.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 230945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES IS AGAIN ON THE
FOREFRONT OF THE DISCUSSION. FORECASTED A HIGH OF 100 FOR MOBILE
TODAY...AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET BACK IN
1882. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE VERY HOT DUE TO THE LACK OF A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). FORECASTED A HIGH OF 101 FOR PENSACOLA
TODAY...AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR WOULD BREAK THE RECORD OF 99 SET BACK
IN 1944.

DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED WITH THE
HIGH TEMPS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO BETWEEN 106 AND 111 DEGREES. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EXCESSIVE%20HEAT) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE HIGHEST INDICES WILL OCCUR. A HEAT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAT%20ADVISORY) ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...MOST OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND INLAND WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 3 PM.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH
UNTIL AROUND 3 AM. FOR SOME AREAS (THE LUCKY ONES) AFFECTED BY ONE
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN NEARLY THREE WEEKS.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 80
DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND
AREAS.


THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WHICH PASSED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAND
FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...BUT STILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) AND THE UPPER HIGH
WHICH HAS CAUSED THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.
GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING IT WEST...BRINGING
BACK ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND ALLOWING A GULF BREEZE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO MOVE ONSHORE
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP GENERATION...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
AREAS THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN EASING IN THE NEAR RECORD DAYTIME
TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER NEAR COASTAL
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AN UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FORMING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS EAST ALONG THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) BORDER. GUIDANCE IS ALSO
ADVERTISING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) GETTING PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) BY THIS SYSTEM. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ADVERTISING A MORE AGGRESSIVE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAN THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)...RESULTING IN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL TO THE
WEST...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. ANY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE
CONTENTION BETWEEN THE SUPPRESSION SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A DAILY GULF BREEZE. HAVE LITTLE CONSISTENCY
TO HANG THE FORECAST HAT ON...SO HAVE GENERALLY STUCK WITH GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS AN UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH TO OVER THE TENN RIVER
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CONTINUES TO GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THE COMING
WORK WEEK.

[ROLLTIDE]

.AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE COASTAL ZONES OF SW AL & THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

.A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SE MS.MOST OF INLAND
SOUTHWEST AL.& THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE.

.A VERY HOT & MUGGY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF OPPRESSIVE HIGH HEAT INDEX
READINGS. HIGHEST HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN RANGE
BETWEEN 106 & 111 DEGREES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HRS. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND
80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST & IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND AREAS.

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-240000-
/O.CON.KMOB.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090624T0000Z/
LWR MOBILE-LWR BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.MOBILE.TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.
FOLEY.SPANISH FORT.PENSACOLA.FERRY PASS.BRENT.
WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.MYRTLE GROVE.PACE.
MILTON.WRIGHT.NICEVILLE.SEMINOLE.EGLIN AFB.VALPARAISO
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND
110 DEGREES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS. MEANWHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPS & HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT STRESS ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES THIS HIGH CAN CAUSE EVEN THE MOST PHYSICALLY FIT TO
SUCCUMB TO HEAT EXHAUSTION OR EVEN WORSE.DEADLY HEAT STROKE.
PERSONS PLANNING ON BEING OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED TIME ARE URGED
TO CONSUME PLENTY OF LIQUIDS.ESPECIALLY WATER.WEAR LIGHT
COLORED & LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.& TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM. THE BEST TIME TO
PERFORM OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IS DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
10 AM.OR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HRS AFTER 6 PM. RESTRICT
INTAKE OF ALCOHOLIC & CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES.

CHILDREN SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION IF
PLAYING OUTDOORS.& CHECK UP ON RELATIVES & NEIGHBORS. THE
ELDERLY SHOULD FREQUENTLY BE CHECKED ON AS WELL. PETS SHOULD BE
PROVIDED PLENTY OF FRESH WATER & SHADE.& BE MONITORED
FREQUENTLY.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO W CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF INTO W CENTRAL AND
SRN FL...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES BENEATH A BELT OF NLY/NNELY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE DEGREE OF SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR
WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS...CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL CONVECTION SPREADING
SWD/SSWWD MAY PRODUCE LOCAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING.

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 240945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INTO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...DECREASING
STABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABILITY) DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCES
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE BEACHES AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPS. THE HOT AND MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY) AIR MASS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS) WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL SEE A DECREASE IN OVERALL HEAT INDEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAT%20INDEX) READINGS COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE HAD TO PUT UP WITH. EXPECT INDICES TO RANGE BETWEEN 102
AND 106 DEGREES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS HIGH.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE HANDLING OF DRY
AIR CURRENTLY TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE AGREES WITH ON SEVERAL UPPER SYSTEMS
DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A DAILY GULF BREEZE WORKING INLAND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
IS THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ADVERTISING A SLUG OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRYER AIR MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) THURSDAY...THEN MODERATING INTO FRIDAY. THIS SLUG IS
VISIBLE IN THE CURRENT GOES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GOES) PRECIP H20 LOOP...BEING LOCATED OVER THE
S-ERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) ATLANTIC COAST...BUT PUTTING THE LOOP INTO ACTION...WITH
THE CURRENT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT...FEEL THAT BY THE TIME THURSDAY COMES
AROUND...THIS SLUG WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) OR POINTS
SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE AFFECTED THE MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) TEXT
PRODUCT THAT MUCH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...THOUGH...SO HAVEN`T
GENERALLY DEVIATED THAT MUCH IN THIS RESPECT. WITH A DAILY GULF
BREEZE WORKING INLAND...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) WITH RESPECT TO
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS).

OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS SOME SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY COMING TOGETHER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY PUSHES A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...WITH THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WEDNESDAY) GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
THIS FIRST FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)
BORDER...PUSHING A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH OF
THE TENN RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORN AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THIS BOUNDARY FLOATING AROUND FOR THE COMING
WEEK...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS BEING ADVERTISED AS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)PREVAILING CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) AND VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) WILL
REMAIN AT VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VARIABLE%20WIND) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK
AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVES WEST INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
DEVELOPING. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVING WEST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
DAILY GULF BREEZE WORKS ITS WAY INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 98 76 94 76 94 / 30 10 30 20 30
PENSACOLA 94 76 92 76 92 / 20 10 30 10 20
DESTIN 92 79 92 78 90 / 20 10 20 10 20
EVERGREEN 98 73 94 72 95 / 30 10 30 20 30
WAYNESBORO 99 72 96 72 95 / 10 05 30 20 30
CAMDEN 98 72 95 74 96 / 10 10 30 20 30

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 250825
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL MOVE WEST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE
DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A DRY SLUG OF AIR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL GETTING DRAWN WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THEN PUSHED NORTH OVER THE WESTERN FL AND OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AL. NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS ADVERTISING MORE PRECIP
H20 OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD CAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP) OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)
THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) FIRING OFF WITH THE
GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD INLAND. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) IN THE SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING MORE
INLAND PENETRATION OF ANY TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) LATER TODAY. MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NIL) FOR MOST OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)......EXCEPT
FOR THE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) GUIDANCE ADVERTISING ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) OVER SOUTHWEST AL INTO SE
MS. AFTER LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)
INTERPRETATION OF THINGS...THOUGH NOT QUITE GOING AS HIGH WITH THE
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AS NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) PHYSICAL AND THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) GRIDDED MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) IS GOING.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.

/16

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A LARGE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN REMAINS INTACT. A
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEY
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL). HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 90S NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE A DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE HOLDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I-10.

UNFORTUNATELY EACH RUN OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MODEL CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH
LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND
IS GETTING SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) MODEL. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
SUPPORT EXISTS...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL BE DRIVEN BY SURFACE
BOUNDARY INTERACTION (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE) DURING
MAXIMUM HEATING HOURS. WENT WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) (ONLY 10 PERCENT) COVERAGE
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER HIGH WILL
RETROGRADE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW
ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY
INTO THE THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND
TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGE FOR
NOW...BUT RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) AS THE
EVENT NEARS.

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL REMAIN AROUND THE WEAKENING
SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR MAINLY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS ALSO REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) THROUGH THE LONG TERM. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

.AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.

.A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM TO 7 PM SUN FOR
SOUTHEAST MS.SOUTHWEST AL.& THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE.

.A VERY HOT MUGGY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY.BRINGING CONTINUED HIGH HEAT INDICES. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 & 110 DEGREES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS FROM UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST & IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND ELSEWHERE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-280515-
/O.NEW.KMOB.EH.A.0001.090628T1200Z-090629T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LWR MOBILE-
LWR BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.MOBILE.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.
TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.FOLEY.SPANISH FORT.CENTURY.
FLOMATON.MOLINO.PENSACOLA.FERRY PASS.BRENT.
WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.MYRTLE GROVE.JAY.PACE.
MILTON.CRESTVIEW.WRIGHT.NICEVILLE.SEMINOLE.EGLIN AFB.
VALPARAISO.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.BEAUMONT.NEW AUGUSTA.
LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.LUCEDALE
410 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUN MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUN MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPS & HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT STRESS ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. HEAT INDICES
THIS HIGH CAN CAUSE EVEN THE MOST PHYSICALLY FIT TO SUCCUMB TO HEAT
EXHAUSTION OR EVEN WORSE.DEADLY HEAT STROKE. PERSONS PLANNING ON
BEING OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED TIME ARE URGED TO CONSUME PLENTY OF
LIQUIDS.ESPECIALLY WATER.WEAR LIGHT COLORED & LOOSE FITTING
CLOTHING.& TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT IN AN AIR-
CONDITIONED ROOM. THE BEST TIME TO PERFORM OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE 10 AM.OR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
AFTER 6. RESTRICT INTAKE OF ALCOHOLIC & CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES.

CHILDREN PLAYING OUTDOORS SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION. CHECK ON RELATIVES & NEIGHBORS ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY.
PETS SHOULD BE PROVIDED PLENTY OF FRESH WATER & SHADE.AND
MONITORED FREQUENTLY.

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
602 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT TODAY FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

.A HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 108
DEGREES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281915-
/O.CON.KMOB.HT.Y.0005.090628T1400Z-090628T2200Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...B AY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...
FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE ...EGLIN AFB...
VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...
LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
602 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT STRESS ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. HEAT
INDICES THIS HIGH CAN CAUSE EVEN THE MOST PHYSICALLY FIT TO
SUFFER HEAT EXHAUSTION OR EVEN WORSE...DEADLY HEAT STROKE.
PERSONS PLANNING ON BEING OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED TIME ARE URGED
TO CONSUME PLENTY OF LIQUIDS...ESPECIALLY WATER...WEAR LIGHT
COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING...AND TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT IN AN AIR- CONDITIONED ROOM.

CHILDREN PLAYING OUTDOORS SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION. CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS ESPECIALLY THE
ELDERLY. PETS SHOULD BE PROVIDED FRESH WATER AND SHADE...AND
MONITORED FREQUENTLY.

[Alex]

100+ again!?

Record Report

Statement as of 05:31 PM CDT on July 02, 2009

... Record high temperature set at Mobile...

a record high temperature of 101 degrees was set at Mobile today.
This breaks the old record of 100 set in 1883.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 060921
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO DROP
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA TONIGHT. WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER LIFT OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
WITH ADDITIONAL SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) SUPPORT NEAR THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE
TO GO WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE LOLVL FORCING
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER)
VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A NEARLY SATURATED 2.4 INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WILL BE THE FUEL FOR A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT
TODAY WILL COME FROM THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK: MODERATE. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z TUES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) SOUTH OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) GENERALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE OUT TO ABOUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) FROM
SHORE. THE DEEPER CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUE
IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) MOVING PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND MAIN UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) GRADUALLY LIFTING OFF TO THE NE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FAIR) AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN SUGGESTING A WEAKENING SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)
ZONE GENERALLY STRADDLING THE AL AND NWFL COAST THROUGH THU THEN
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING FURTHER LATE IN THE WEEK. AS FOR
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)/MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE MENTIONING
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT AND
EVENING HOURS. THE DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND A MOIST ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC)
LAPSE RATE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LAPSE%20RATE) ACROSS MUCH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A DRIER LAYER OF AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING IN FROM THE WNW BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN
COULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OR DURING MAX HEATING. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A LIGHTLY COOLER TREND BUT MORE HUMID
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. /32

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE)...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST AND A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FROM THE NORTH...
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) IS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF)
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) AND
VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AND NOT CONTINUOUS THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) ALL DAY. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR). THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)/WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID SOUTH IS FORECAST TO
EASE SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE STALLING. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS OVER THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...NOSES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET BY LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WESTERLY
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES...BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY INTO MID/LATE WEEK. WITH
THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MEANDERING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MARINE AREA.
12/DS

[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
SLOW MOVING UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD
WEDNESDAY AS A HEALTHY MID-LVL JET STREAK TRANSLATES FROM NRN CA TO
THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LEE LOW OVER NERN WY WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL SD AND INTO ERN ND DURING THE
LATE AFTN/NIGHT. A WRMFNT WILL LIFT NWD FROM THE CORN BELT TO A SRN
MN AND SRN ND LINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SELY LLVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
PRESSURES FALL OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ADVECT SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WWD INTO ERN MT/NERN WY
AND LWR/MID 60S ACROSS NEB/SD AND MOST OF ND. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING WITH MLCAPES
RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG IN ERN PARTS OF MT/WY TO WELL OVER 2500 J/KG
ON THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN CAPPED... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS AS H7 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11-12 DEG C OVER ERN
WY...SD AND NEB.

AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD...UPSLOPE FLOW IN
MT...WY AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION WILL DEEPEN AND HIGH-BASED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MID-AFTN. AS THE ACTIVITY
PROGRESSES ONTO THE PLAINS...THEY WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TAP
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR INITIAL STORMS TO BE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN ND AND CNTRL/WRN SD.


ISOLD TSTMS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
CAP/INVOF WRMFNT SEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL IA. HERE...NWLY BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES...EVENING STORMS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A QLCS /EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND ROTATING STORMS/ OVER
THE WRN DKTS...WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS
/PENDING CAPPING CONCERNS/. APPROACH OF 60-70 KT WSW MID-LVL
FLOW...RETURN OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING/ SUSTAINED LLVL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THREATS FOR SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS AT
LEAST SRN ND AND NRN/CNTRL SD WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
TURN ESE AND MOVE INTO NWRN IA/WRN MN BY 12Z THU. DMGG WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED A
MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ONCE EFFECTS OF MORNING CONVECTION ON
MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION ARE BETTER KNOWN.

...SERN STATES...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN STATES UPR TROUGH WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A
MODEST IMPULSE DIGS SEWD FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SERN STATES.
THIS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER ERN AL/WRN GA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOVING NEWD ALONG A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SC CST
BY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TOWARD THE NRN GULF CST IN
WAKE OF THE LOW. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
STEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG. MID-LVL FLOW ALONG BASE OF THE IMPULSE WILL LIKELY
BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. MOREOVER...DRIER MID-LVL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. UPSHOT WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR
TSTMS...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS...GIVING DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.

FARTHER S...ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO EWD ACROSS NRN FL. FLOW THIS
FAR S WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN FARTHER N...SO ONLY ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 07/08/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 080947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA THIS MORNING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE LOLVL
FORCING FOR SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE EASTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
TODAY AS A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL%20DISTURBANCE) DROPS INTO
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) ENERGY WILL
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) DEVELOP A BROAD...WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
STATIONARY FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THIS WEAK LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BOUNDARY TO
SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA. THE DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING)
MID/UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL ALLOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...NOTED IN CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY)... TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE LOLVL AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) REMAINS
VERY MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE (2.0+ VALUES HAVE NOW BEEN PUSHED JUST OFFSHORE OUT OVER
NORTHERN GULF). THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BASED CAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA TODAY...MAYBE UP TO AROUND 2500
J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) OVER THE REGION TODAY (CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TODAY VS
THE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS)...THIS SAME DRY AIR
COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)`S TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)`S COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
OUR FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA (EXCEPT FOR MISSISSIPPI ZONES...WHERE DEEPER DRIER AIR
PROFILE WILL BE WORKING IN) OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) THREAT. DON`T
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) EVENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR)
STORMS WILL BE THERE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REBOUND TODAY... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 80S
EASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES TO LOW 90S OVER THE WEST. TONIGHTS MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR ZONES TO LOW/MID
70S COASTAL ZONES.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK: MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...AXIS OF MID TO UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BY 12 THU...GIVING WAY TO A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IN MID LEVELS...USHERING IN DRIER AIR MOSTLY ALOFT
THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS INVERTED TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW PRES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES)
FORMS OR BREAKS OFF OVER THE NE GULF AND SHIFTS WEST. NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) A
WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW IS REFLECTED ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE
GA/NORTHEAST FL COAST WHICH ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO ADVECT S`WESTWARD...ALSO. THE INCREASED MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION)
CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF AND MOVES
WEST. THIS PATTERN BRINGS BETTER CLOUDS AND MORE UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER
TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) A WEAKENING BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO WAFFLE JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) IN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED GRIDS. /32

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 090425
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.AVIATION...(06Z ISSUANCE) NEXT ISSUANCE GOING TO BE A STANDARD
SUMMER PACKAGE...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) DAYTIME AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
CAUSING POCKETS OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM)...BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...PACKAGE UPDATED TO CLEAN UP WORDING. STILL HAVE A FEW
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ONGOING OVER/NEAR THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...SO CAN`T REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 111739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUL 11 2009

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PERIOD.
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN COASTAL SECTIONS
TODAY WITH THE SEABREEZE AND THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF
A TERMINAL EXPERIENCES RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. 34/JFB

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUL 11/

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS
AND A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) PROVIDES AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO
KEEP THINGS WARM TO HOT AND SULTRY WITH THE UPPER HIGH KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). WILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) UP BETWEEN NOON AND SUNSET...MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90 IN AREAS WHERE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TSTMS
DEVELOP AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND. THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH
ANOTHER WARM BUT RAIN FREE NIGHT. /11

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE...IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...TO NOSE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA WHILE AN EAST COAST
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) SETS UP MON/TUE. NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...INTERSECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)...IS WHERE THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE)
HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS THE GULF COAST WILL BE
SHIELDED FROM THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT AS TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) COMPLEXES THAT
ORIGINATE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MORE RIDGING ALOFT
OVER OUR AREA WILL TEND TO KEEP TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) ACTIVITY HIT AND MISS. WILL ONLY
BE CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) OF TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SUN-TUE DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) NOSING
IN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF...THE HEAT COMES
BACK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S. COUPLE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...IT WILL FEEL HOTTER WITH HEAT
INDICES BACK UP TO 104 TO 109 DEGREES OR SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BEACHES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO
FLATTEN RESULTING IN A WEAKNESS LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD FAVOR
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BEING UP A CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DURING THE DAY WHILE
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS =>LOWER
90S WED-FRI. /10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 120452
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUL 11 2009

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE...SAME THINKING AS BEFORE WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR LIGHT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG). LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN INCLUDED VCTS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AT THE THREE
TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES AS A SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPS. /29

** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...LARGE ANTICYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ANTICYCLONE)
EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE) IS RIDGING FROM OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FORECAST OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK) RATHER
DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS THE SEABREEZE
WHICH WILL BRING CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO THE COASTAL REGIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BUT THE
UPPER HIGH WILL KEEP IT WARM ENOUGH ALOFT INCREASE THE VERTICAL
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POTENTIAL%20TEMPERATURE) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) SUFFICIENTLY TO
TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) UP
LATE AFTERNOONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND A BIT INLAND LEAVING
MORE WARM DRY NIGHTS. PATCHY POST-SHOWER OVERNIGHT GROUND FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE BUT TOO ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO WARRANT A GRID 77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...NO CHANGES. WAVENUMBER 5
PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OFF THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK. GULF
COAST WILL ESCAPE DEEPEST LAYER LIFT BUT THE WINDOW WOULD BE OPEN
FOR SOME TYPE OF MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BUT ONCE HERE IT
WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE TO CONTINUED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION).

HEAT INDEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAT%20INDEX) REBOUNDS BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES NORTH OF THE BEACHES BY
TUESDAY BUT CURRENTLY THEY ARE BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO FLATTEN
RESULTING IN A WEAKNESS LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD FAVOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
BEING UP A CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DURING THE DAY WHILE DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS =>LOWER 90S
WED-FRI.

77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...BECOMING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT). A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS...WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
AXIS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STALLS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1 TO 2 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) RANGE. 34/JFB

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

http://s508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/?action=view&current=radar-1.png

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES NORTH OF FORT MORGAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FORT MORGAN BY 530 PM CDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

91
FXUS64 KMOB 141559 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1059 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.UPDATE...THE MCS OVER CENTRAL MS HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KDGX RADAR HAS OUTRUN
THE CONVECTION. THE MCS HAS GENERATED A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX...ALSO EVIDENT ON THE KDGX RADAR. WE ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPES ARE ALREADY
EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG PER LOCAL LAPS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS. EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL BE MOST DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE
REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WHEN FACTORING IN THE SEA BREEZE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
VERY HIGH (AOA 2 INCHES) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK. THEREFORE...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH (ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE LOCAL WET MICROBURST RISK).
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER.

LITTLE MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST SINCE IT
ALREADY FAVORED HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST VERSUS THE EAST. DID LOWER
HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIP...GENERALLY GOING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
LOWER 90S TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST. 34/JFB

........................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................


.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND WITH ISOLATED SHWR
ACTIVITY INTO THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS. AFTER THEY FORM...STORMS
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD IN THE MEAN H85-50 FLOW.

FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS ITS AXIS OVER TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THE HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROF FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS CONTAINS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
THESE DISTURBANCES ARE AIDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POCKETS
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS
ARKANSAS. ARKANSAS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
MAKING AN EVENTUAL IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE WITH
PWAT FROM 2-2.25" AND CONSIDERING FORECAST INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS CAN EASILY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
OTHER THREATS IN AND NEAR TSTMS BEING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION TO STORMINESS DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN LESSER
COVERAGES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS FAR AS DAYTIME HIGHS BEFORE THE ONSET OF CONVECTION...LOWER 90S
ANTICIPATED FOR HIGHS MOST AREAS. NIGHTTIME MINS REMAIN ON THE
MUGGY SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

TODAYS PRELIMINARY WET MICROBURST RISK ASSESSMENT IS: MODERATE /10


WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST
POPS OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS IN THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
ATMOSPHERE MOIST BUT WITHOUT THE ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE
VOID BETWEEN 2 UPPER HIGHS...1 EAST AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH HAD BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2
INCHES INCREASE A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE
POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION AS FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE 2 UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND PUSH THE DEEP
MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE LEFT
LOW POPS IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY FOR ANY SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO SHOVE A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR MID JULY
BUT THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PRETTY ROBUST WITH 1000-500K VALUES A
LITTLE BELOW 5700 METERS...NOT BAD FOR SUMMER. /11

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 151018
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
518 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL EFFECT AS SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF FORECAST INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL REMAIN INTACT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER)
VALUES RANGING FROM 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL EASILY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WITH OTHER
THREATS IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS BEING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS LOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF TODAY`S FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) WINDS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...NEED TO HAVE THE UMBRELLA
HANDY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EASTERN NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) IS
PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO BREAK DOWN THU AS UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) BEGINS TO EVOLVE AND SHARPEN
UP OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRI AND SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
(PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT)=>2-2.25 INCHES) PERSISTS. CONSIDERING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...THE RESULTANT
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) THU ALONG WITH THE FORECAST AREA COMING UNDER
THE MORE FAVORABLE EAST SIDE/BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT OF THE SHARPENING
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) ON FRI AND SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) FAVORS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS AS WE
MOVE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...OTHER PLAYERS THAT WILL AID IN INCREASED MECHANICAL
LIFT WILL BE 1) WEAK MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE COASTAL
SEABREEZE THU/FRI AND THEN 2) A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE ON
SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FORECAST VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND WIND SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY...VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) REDUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). TO A
LESSER DEGREE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ON A
BRIEF...ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) BASIS...THE RISK FOR A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE OF SUCH
IS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

A POTENTIAL...MUCH WELCOME AIRMASS CHANGE LATE IN THE OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK). THERE
IS STARTING TO BE A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/AND CANADIAN
SPECTRAL MODELS OF SENDING THE SOUTHERN STATES FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ON ABOVE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE STALLING. WHAT THIS MEANS IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
A DRIER AIRMASS WITH DAILY HIGHS/LOWS COMING IN BELOW SEASONAL
ESPECIALLY MON/TUE. IT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR MID JULY TO SEE
THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) REMAINS PRETTY ROBUST
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO NEAR 5670 METERS THIS FAR SOUTH.
THIS RESULTS IN NIGHTTIME MINS SEEING THE GREATEST DEPARTURES OFF
SEASONAL BY MON AND TUE WITH LOWER/MID 60S EXPECTED MOST AREAS. NOT
BAD FOR SUMMER. /10

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 161003
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AS BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ADVANCES SOUTH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT
OVER THE NEXT TWO PERIODS AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) GOING WITH 925-850 LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
13 AND 15 G/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=G/KG)...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES RANGING FROM 2.00 TO
2.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE 30 TO 40% COVERAGE ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) OUTPUT OF 40 TO 70% DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF FORECAST MU CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)...500-300MB LAYER
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C)/KM AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENTRANCE%20REGION) OF WEAK UPPER
JET STREAK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET%20STREAK) FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...BRIEF LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF TODAY`S FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) WINDS. /22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...MORE WET WEATHER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE HEIGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEIGHT) FIELD ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME A WELL DEFINED LONG WAVE (L/W) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECASTERS WILL BE
WATCHING FOR A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MID
SOUTH REGION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE NOT FAR BEHIND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
ENHANCED LIFT TO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH OPERATES ON A PERSISTENT...DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS...RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SCOPE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE)
AGAIN...FILLING IN W/NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHWRS AND TSTMS FRI. THE FORECAST THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL)
AND MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) DISTRIBUTION WITH HEIGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEIGHT) SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) POCKETS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS WE SEE TODAY
AND AGAIN ON FRI HAVE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF CONTRIBUTING TO
MAINLY NUISANCE...URBAN TYPE FLOODING. WITH THE DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING)
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)...ENOUGH OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH TO THE STORM MOTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STORM%20MOTION) IS
EXPECTED AS TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING. OTHER THREATS IN
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE. THE RISK
HOWEVER...FOR A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE OF SUCH IS LOW.

SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)...SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) SHOVES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SINKS INTO THE REGION.
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND STALL
SUN AM. THE NORTHERN ZONES LOOK TO BE RAINFREE BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OUT OF RESPECT FOR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING EASTWARD
AT THE BASE OF THE L/W TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...FORECASTERS HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THERE SUN/MON.

W/FRONTAL PASSAGE UPCOMING IT APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR A TREAT...TEMPERATURE
WISE...FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUN THROUGH TUE WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR SUN THROUGH TUE AM. A VERY NICE
TREAT INDEED...HEADING INTO LATE JULY! A MODERATION BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS OCCURS BY WED. /10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 171010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW%20BOUNDARY) FROM AN
MCS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCS) OVER THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. ENTERING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) EARLY THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD MOVE FURTHER TOWARD
THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT FORCED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION).
POSITIVE ENERGY ABOVE LFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LFC) FROM THE NEW ORLEANS RAOB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAOB) INDICATED 2150
J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AND FORECAST SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) IN MOBILE AREA INDICATE FIGURES CLOSE TO
THAT AT 18Z TODAY. MINIMAL SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) INDICATING BAROTROPY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BAROTROPY) SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL NOT BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED...BUT IT WOULD PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SOUPY ENVIRONMENT WITH THETA-E (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THETA-E) ABOUT 340 TO 350.
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL BE MORE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) THIS
MORNING PRIOR TO THE OUTFLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW) ARRIVAL. LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN FOR MOST MARINE
AND LAND ZONES 00Z...THEN DECREASING TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) AS THE OUTFLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW)
MOVES OFFSHORE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=URBAN%20AND%20SMALL%20STREAM%20F LOODING).

OVERNIGHT THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCS) TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPSTREAM) IN THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EAST
COAST INTENSIFIES. WIND WOULD THEN BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST BUT
KEEPING CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) NORTH HONORING
PRESENCE OF SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCS). BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES OVER MIDSOUTH WILL INTENSIFY A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND AL. /77

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF TODAY`S FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) WINDS.

[SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BASE OF
LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT UNDER MID
LAYER SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) REGION...THE SOUTHERN HALF (INCLUDING MARINE AREAS)
WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME RATHER
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES SOUTH OF THE
COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM)
COVERAGE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL
BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR INLAND ZONES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) IN
THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF ONE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA WITHOUT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL
WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY (AHEAD OF THE OTHER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)) ALLOWING A WETTER PATTERN (SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS) TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS MODERATING FROM
THE 60S AREA WIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AFTER MID WEEK. /22

&&

.MARINE...WEAKENING HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL RETREAT AHEAD
OF THAT COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING GALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GALE) FORCE WIND GUSTS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT AS WELL AS VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) BELOW A MILE. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /77

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS TO START
THIS MORNING BUT BECOMING IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) TO VLIFR IN SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CONVECTIVE CELLS
LATER THIS MORNING BECOMING NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST THEN VARIABLE LESS THEN 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /77

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...BUT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. /22

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ESCATAWPA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF VANCLEAVE...OR
7 MILES NORTH OF ST. MARTIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
VANCLEAVE BY 615 PM CDT...
ESCATAWPA AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF WADE BY 630 PM CDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
428 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 515 PM MDT

* AT 428 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO
NEAR ARICKAREE SCHOOL...OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF AKRON. THIS STORM WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COPE AND
ARICKAREE SCHOOL.

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 180955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUL 18 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO MOVE DECIDEDLY OFFSHORE SO MODIFIED THE GUIDANCE FOR
CHANGING WIND DIRECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20DIRECTION) TO UNIDIRECTIONALLY NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS
WENT WITH THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) TODAY AND TONIGHT. /77

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF TODAY`S FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) WINDS.

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A DRY PERIOD WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) CONTINUES TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREE. THE
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS (ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)) WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR INLAND ZONES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY BROADER
UPPER THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWS MODERATING FROM THE 60S AREA WIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AFTER MID
WEEK. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS AT THIS TIME. /22

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GULF THROUGH TODAY. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) TO A MILE OR LESS. AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW IT PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WIND RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL STRENGTHEN EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT NEAR SHORE AND IN PROTECTED WATERS. /77

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND AROUND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
SHOWERS NEAR SHORE. CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL END EARLY AS WIND BECOMES
NORTHWEST THEN VARIABLE LESS THEN 10 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS DOMINATE AFTER MIDMORNING TODAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH. /77

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REACH INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING)
LEVELS. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 200915
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AXIS PASSING TO
THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1
INCH TODAY...ABOUT 60-70% OF NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE FOR LATE JULY. RECORD LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN
JEOPARDY TONIGHT (67 MOBILE AND 69 PENSACOLA) WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATIONAL%20COOLING) (VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS).


.LONG TERM...[TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. 850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS
PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS OF THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED
OVER DESTIN. THE CLOUD SHIELD INDICATING THE HYPER-BAROCLINIC REGION
OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS FURTHER EAST OVER PANAMA CITY AREA. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT ADVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE PRETTY ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) AND THE COOL SHOT OF
AIR THE SYSTEM BROUGHT SHOWS A PROPENSITY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPERATURE. WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO STALL OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) LIFTS NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THAT DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAKE A HARD LEFT BEFORE
REACHING US WITH THE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WHICH WILL STAY NORTH OF HERE. AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR HIGHS AROUND 90 BUT THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN WILL
EMIT IR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IR) RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BRING LOWS A BIT BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TUESDAY
NIGHT.

/77

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL STAY
ALIGNED WITH LONGITUDES 85W TO 90W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL DAMPEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND THE SEABREEZE. HIGHS CONTINUE
AROUND 90 AND LOWS RETURN TO LOWER 70S. /77


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY IN
THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY...ALLOWING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST TO VEER WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD (AROUND 10 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS))...MAINTAINING
SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) IN THE 1 TO 2 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) NOT SEEN DROPPING BELOW
FLORIDA WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7
PM TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP CLOSE
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) ON THIS SITUATIO

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 210919
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...CENTRAL GULF STATES AND EASTERN GULF.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF GENERALLY FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO WELL BEYOND 100 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) SOUTH OF
THE MOBILE BAY TO NEAR LCH. ALOFT A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT
EAST NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED. AS A RESULT A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY A MIX OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND RUC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RUC) SHOW A HINT
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) TODAY
WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MORE ROBUST...DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE
GREENVILLE AL TO HATTIESBURG MS. DUE TO LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...DRIER
THAN NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) CONDITIONS NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) (DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S) AND DEEP RIDGING TO THE EAST GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN LOW. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN THE THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH LEANING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) FOR
TEMPS THOUGH GO A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO COOLER SEA SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TEMPS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO POSSIBLE UPWELLING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPWELLING) FROM
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). /32

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR MID SUMMER WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING
PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)...WHICH IN TURN WOULD ENHANCE OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL. IN
GENERAL...A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY...WHILE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN MUCH DRIER. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL SHOW 30-40S NW TO SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
FURTHER EAST. LOW CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ALL LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) MOISTENS FURTHER...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE).

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) INCREASE FURTHER AS WE HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND HELP TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS SENDS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOWARD THE REGION WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) STRENGTHENING...
ENHANCING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRANSPORT. HAVE GONE ABOVE CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO) FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH HIGH END CHANCES.

HIGHS TEMPS HOVER AROUND 90 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING 1000-850MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LOWS
MODERATE BACK TO TYPICAL LATE JULY LEVELS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY
SOUTH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /32

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
OVER THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS MAINLY FROM VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO HELP
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCE
INCREASE OVER THE MARINE LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) TO THE
NORTH DIGS BETTER TO THE SOUTH. /32


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPS TODAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER). HOWEVER...RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO CONCERNS NOTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTINUES TO INCREASE. 34/JFB

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 220956
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
456 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
MOSTLY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS STRETCHING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH
FL. TO THE SOUTH A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) IS STILL IN PLACE
MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE MARINE
AREA...PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) MID TO UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. WELL TO THE NORTH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WAS NOTED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO TRACK NE TO THE OHIO RVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RVR)
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WILL SEE ENOUGH
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...BEGINNING TO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING ESE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) FORM OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) INITIALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST THOUGH WEAKENING BY THIS EVENING AS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TEMPS SLOWLY
COOL AND IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. DUE TO
A BETTER TEMP GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) FROM COOLER SEA SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
BELIEVE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) WILL FORM A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)
TODAY...POSSIBLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) OVER COASTAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS THIS MORNING (MOSTLY GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)
WINDS NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM)) ARE RUNNING A TAD HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO A TAD COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE WEST DUE TO
BETTER CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. /32

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WHILE MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK... THE GULF COAST IS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WITH
THE MAIN ENERGY STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DOES LOOK TO
STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) BY THURSDAY...LIFTING
NORTH AND WASHING OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHERE PWATS
HOVER BETWEEN 1.75-1.90 INCHES. FURTHER INLAND...PWATS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. THUS...WILL CONFINE THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH JUST VERY SMALL CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES
TO FOCUS HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...SO WILL ONLY GO MID RANGE CHANCE AS THE
HIGHEST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER AT NIGHT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
THAT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WILL COME THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND
ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OR TWO...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THAT AS THE TIME DRAWS CLOSER. TEMPS SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ANOTHER CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) IS
FORECAST TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLES) ARE MIXED IN THE DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION. THIS HAS IMPACTS ON OUR FORECAST AS IT WILL AFFECT NOT
ONLY THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRANSPORT...BUT ALSO THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). WHILE STILL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOTH THE 00Z OP ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE EXTENT OF AMPLIFICATION...SERVING TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THERE IS ALSO ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT AMONGST THE 00Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLE) MEMBERS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). GIVEN
SUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AT 40 PERCENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE OVERALL TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) SUPPORT ABOVE CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE THEM ANY HIGHER. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO
IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST (NEAR TERMINAL SITES) LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING AS TEMP GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) RELAXES. /32

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO PASSING SHORT
TO THE NORTH AND UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AS INLAND TEMPS WARM LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ABOUT 20NM DUE TO BETTER THAN NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMP
GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS MID TO UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND BROADEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE MARINE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 3 FOOT AT TIMES INSIDE OF 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY FROM AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES (MOSTLY SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) IN COVERAGE) FOR THE MARINE
AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS MID TO UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DEEPENS AND REMAINS
MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS
FORECAT TO CONTINUE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 89 72 90 72 / 30 20 30 30
PENSACOLA 89 74 88 75 / 10 20 40 30
DESTIN 87 76 87 78 / 10 20 40 30
EVERGREEN 90 69 91 70 / 20 20 30 10
WAYNESBORO 89 68 91 70 / 40 20 20 10
CAMDEN 89 68 91 70 / 30 20 20 10

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 231000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM N CENTRAL AL TO JUST N OF KPIB IN MS
WITH A WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...GENERALLY FROM JUST NORTH
OF KMGM TO NORTH OF KGPT IN MS. ALOFT UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS WAS NEARING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLUTION INITIALIZED
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN DEPICTING BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) NEAR
THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THIS MORNING
SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH 12Z WED. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP...MOSTLY SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) IN COVERAGE...WILL FORM OVER INLAND AREAS
OF AL AND NWFL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OR DURING
MAX HEATING COMBINED WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FROM
SEABREEZE EFFECTS. WITH THIS...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)
SOLUTION WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) TODAY AND TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE EXPANDED THIS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY MORE TO WEST FOR THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE CURRENT RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS DURING THE LAST HOUR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

(FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO PUSH THE WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST BY FRIDAY. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATERS DECREASE MARKEDLY
OVER THE INTERIOR CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA)...DROPPING TO NEAR AN INCH WHILE PWATS STAY
CLOSER TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THIS SETUP...WILL REMOVE
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE FAR INTERIOR BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ALONG THE COAST.
DRIER AIR INLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20SUNNY) SKIES SHOULD HELP TO BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WASHES OUT ON
SATURDAY WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRY AIR OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY WITH THE BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STILL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA). ASIDE FROM THE
WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE ARE NO REAL TRIGGERS TO SUPPORT GOING HIGHER
THAN 20-30 POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...AND WILL CONFINE THE 30 POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

WE BEGIN TO SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) RETROGRADES WEST
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE WEST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EARLIER
FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK HAD MENTIONED ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS NOW LOOKS
LESS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) WITH THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING WEST INTO THE AREA.
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL SHOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO).

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S ON SUNDAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 FOR MON-WED...BUT HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 270854
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED WITH THE POOLS OF DRIER AIR SWIRLING AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS).
ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ALL THE LITTLE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTIONS. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL
BE OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)....LESS CONFIDENT EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE. /16

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)...OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
MEANWHILE WITH RATHER HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES NEAR 2.25
INCHES DURING THE DAY THEN NEAR 2 INCHES AT NIGHT...A CONSEQUENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF SOME OF THE SHORTWAVES. THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PRODUCE DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) INITIATING ALONG A SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES INLAND. THE BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND FAVORABLE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE AREA THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WINDS DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS
BY THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). /29

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE BROAD UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
WEAKENS GRADUALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE CONTINUING SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL STILL PRODUCE DECENT DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE COASTAL AREA
THEN LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
INITIATING ON THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACROSS THE GULF SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND RETURNS THE FORECAST AREA TO SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE)
INDUCED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION).

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 280901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE ARKLATEX MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) WILL DEFLECT
THIS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) NORTHWARD A BIT FROM ITS CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEAST
SWING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER AND NORTH OF
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) PASSING OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH WETBULB 0 HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE
14K`...HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) GENERALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM WITH ANY STORM
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. ALSO...WITH A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS
(ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS)...LITTLE DRY AIR IS AVAILABLE
ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR DOWNBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DOWNBURST) PRODUCTION. THIS AFTERNOON`S WET
MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS LOW. /16

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...THE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE GULF
CAUSES THE PATH OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A SUBTLE
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INITIATES CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BOTH
DAYS. THE TREND SUPPORTS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
OVERNIGHT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...THEN LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE
INLAND AREA ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH SMALL POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOW END
CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WELL INLAND WHERE MILD DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT
LINGERING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...AND FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES SYSTEM...STALLS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE GULF
WEAKENS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEMS. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE SUPPORT AT LEAST GOOD
CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON FRIDAY THEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) EXITS THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 290959 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AS THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) WESTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WESTERLIES) ALOFT...WITH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF). MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING EASTWARD IN THE
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ONCE
AGAIN ENHANCING LIFT WITHIN THE DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWATS OF
2.00 TO 2.20 INCHES) AND SUPPORTING THE INITIATION/MAINTENANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH PROFILES BEING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC)...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL TODAY. THAT
SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD AGAIN BE STRONG...PRODUCING BRIEF
WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
STORMS TODAY WILL BE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD)
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) (FFA) FOR PARTS OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65 WHERE RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) ESTIMATES INDICATED THE MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) FELL YESTERDAY. DECIDED AGAINST THE FFA AT THIS TIME
AS MOST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TODAY WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE JUST NORTH OF OUR FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA...ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...BUT THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINS
WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL...HOWEVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AND CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED... WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S MOST
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK: MODERATE.

12/DS

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THURSDAY STARTS WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE SWINGING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STARTING TO WEAKEN. SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
HAS REMAINED PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY...KEEPING A GENERAL ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.

THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SWINGS EAST...TO OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STRETCHING
SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS TO MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) HAS FILLED A BIT...BUT ADDITIONAL UPPER
ENERGY IS SWINGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) PLAINS
BY THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH SOME INDICATING A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...SOME MAINTAINING THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) POSITION.
EFFECTIVELY FOR THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SHIFT IN
DIRECTION...ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS MAINTAINED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS INDICATING MORE OF AN
AFTERNOON...GULF BREEZE MOVING FARTHER INLAND FIRING OFF THE TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
SORT OF DAY...WHILST THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING A MORE BROAD
PRECIP COVERAGE. HAVE BLENDED THE APPROACHES...LEANING TOWARDS THE
DRIER/WARMER NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) SOLUTION NEAR THE COAST...GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) SOLUTION
FARTHER INLAND...FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER ENERGY
OVER THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) PLAINS ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSE UPPER SYSTEM NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORN. A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THIS
UPPER ENERGY HELPS TO DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) THE UPPER TOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...ALONG WITH SWINGING IT EAST...WITH THE AXIS BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) BY MONDAY MORN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) SWINGS
EAST...POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) DROP A BIT (ABOUT 10-15% FRIDAY TO MONDAY)...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES.

IN THE COMING WEEK...A BREAKDOWN IN SOLUTIONS OCCURS...WITH THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ADVERTISING A STATIC PATTERN INTO MID WEEK. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ADVERTISING
THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FILLING AS AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ENSEMBLES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLES) TEND TO AGREE WITH THE OP GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ...SO
HAVE WENT THAT DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST. RESULT IS TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL...WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) A BIT BELOW.

[ROLLTIDE]

50% Chance and no rain once again !

[ROLLTIDE]

Very heavy rain now and intense lighting :)

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
316 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

ALZ061-063-MSZ076-079-310900-
UPPER MOBILE-GEORGE-GREENE-LOWER MOBILE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUCEDALE...
316 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GEORGE...GREENE AND
MOBILE COUNTIES...

AT 316 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM AGRICOLA TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF BAYOU
LA BATRE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
DIXON CORNER...DEES...SHIPMAN...SAINT ELMO...MOFFET...DAWES...MOFFET
AND EARLVILLE THROUGH 400 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 010450 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.AVIATION [06Z ISSUANCE]...VCNTY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VCNTY) SHWRS THROUGH 08Z DUE TO DECAYING
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF MOB/BFM. AS FAR AS CIGS...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
LEVELS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR WITH WINDS LIGHT. DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING SOME THINNING IN CLOUDS...MAY BE
SOME LIGHT MIST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MIST) FORMING AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 09Z. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) DAY ON
SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) WITH TSTMS BRINGING BRIEF STRONG AND VARIABLE CROSSWINDS WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVELS AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 12Z. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 1SM IN +TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AS WELL. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 76 89 76 91 / 30 50 50 40
PENSACOLA 76 89 75 89 / 30 50 40 40
DESTIN 78 88 77 89 / 30 50 40 40
EVERGREEN 72 89 72 88 / 30 70 60 50
WAYNESBORO 72 89 72 91 / 20 60 60 40
CAMDEN 72 90 73 89 / 20 60 60 50

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

NOUS44 KMOB 282052 CCA
PNSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041500-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...WALLACE ALABAMA COOPERATIVE OBSERVER TO BE HONORED WITH 50 YEAR
AWARD...

MRS. ESSIE CHAVERS WILL RECEIVE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EDWARD
H. STOLL AWARD ON TUESDAY, AUGUST 4TH, AT 10:00 AM AT HER HOME NEAR
WALLACE ALABAMA. THE STOLL AWARD HONORS HER 50 YEARS AS A NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER. FOR THE PAST HALF
CENTURY MRS. CHAVERS HAS BEEN MEASURING AND REPORTING DAILY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND TO LOCAL RESIDENTS
INTERESTED IN RAINFALL DATA.

MRS. CHAVERS` CONSISTENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE PROVIDED A GREATER
UNDERSTANDING OF THE PRECIPITATION CLIMATE OF THE WALLACE AREA. THEY
HAVE ENHANCED FLOOD FORECASTS ON THE BURNT CORN AND MURDER CREEKS,
AND CONTRIBUTED TO DROUGHT POTENTIAL FORECASTS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
IN GENERAL. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD HER OBSERVATIONS HAS CREATED
WILL BENEFIT RESEARCHERS AND DECISION MAKERS FOR GENERATIONS TO
COME.

THANK YOU MRS. CHAVERS FOR YOUR MANY YEARS OF DEDICATED SERVICE.


$$

[ROLLTIDE]

ALC003-097-012015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0053.090801T1814Z-090801T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
BALDWIN AL-MOBILE AL-
114 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN & SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR.
EXTREME WEST CNTL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SW AL.
CNTL MOBILE COUNTY IN SW AL.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE.

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 109 PM CDT.WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF CNTL MOBILE COUNTY. RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THESE AREAS COULD REACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY FOR THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH 3 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS & STREAMS.& PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
HIGHWAYS.STREETS & UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS & LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT.LON 3048 8841 3086 8842 3093 8797 3064 8805
3059 8806 3058 8808 3054 8808 3053 8807
3052 8809 3048 8809 3047 8810

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 021019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A LARGE UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH THE FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). A FEW STRONGER TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) IN MOST SPOTS DEPENDING ON
WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN IS RECEIVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK: MODERATE.

13/JC

(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WHILE AT
LEAST ONE MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL%20DISTURBANCE) MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACROSS THE REGION. A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE
THEN BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS THE THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AXIS FINALLY
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND A DRIER NWLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWLY) MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA...WHILE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. HOT AND MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE DRIER NWLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWLY) MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED LOWER RAIN CHANCES...GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS). BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) THAT HAS
BEEN BUILDING OUT WEST WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA WHILE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS. WITH THIS...LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30 POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS))
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ZONES WHERE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VCTS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS/VIGS EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. 13/JC

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 030836
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) IS SLOWLY DRYING OUT
AS UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AXIS THAT WAS IN THE VICINITY WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST AND FLATTENING OUT A BIT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEFT IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THAT SHOULD BE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND TODAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE). AS A
CONSEQUENCE...HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW MID 90S IN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS) AND NEAR 90 TO THE LOWER
90S ALONG THE COAST AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS. /11

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE PERSISTENT TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. IN
THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THIS TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL
DECREASE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EVEN FURTHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 600 DM CENTERED ON TOP OF THE
AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED
AND POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) LOWERED FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED. /13

&&

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AROUND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY). THESE SHOULD BE
MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY
WITH SUNRISE. GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) IN AND NEAR
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL FOGGY PATCHES OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES. /11

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE OCCURRING OVER THE MARINE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE CUSTOMARY DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) PATTERN CONTINUING IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTS OR TROPICAL WAVES AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR AND IN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 92 74 95 73 / 30 10 20 10
PENSACOLA 90 76 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
DESTIN 89 78 88 78 / 30 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 91 71 92 70 / 30 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 95 71 94 69 / 10 10 20 10
CAMDEN 93 72 96 70 / 10 10 20 05

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR DOWNTOWN MOBILE...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DOWNTOWN MOBILE BY 250 PM CDT...
MOBILE INFIRMARY BY 305 PM CDT...
LADD STADIUM BY 315 PM CDT...
AIRPORT AND GOVERNMENT BY 320 PM CDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3068 8820 3077 8806 3075 8801 3074 8802
3071 8800 3067 8800 3067 8802 3065 8805
3060 8806 3058 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 045DEG 4KT 3070 8804

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KLIX 040846
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) IS COMPLETELY RAINFREE
AND NOT FAR FROM CLOUDFREE TOO. ATMO COLUMN DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
BUT STILL HAVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL). SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) FROM MON 00Z
HAD PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUN
FORECAST ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS FOR SUCH LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SIMILAR. HAVE BASICALLY RETAINED
PREVIOUS POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FORECAST WITH SCHC ALONG AND EAST OF MAINLY THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH THROUGH LAFOURCHE PARISH. AREAS TO THE WEST OF
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY RAIN AND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN SEE
MANY CLOUDS. SE LA WILL IS CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR FIRING OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WHEN LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) FOR SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT)
COVERAGE. FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) UP TO 25K FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) MAXES AT A WHOPPING 7KTS...SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) OR FAST MOVING STORMS. PROBABLY BE A OUTFLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW) DOMINANT
DAY. VERY DRY LAYER IN MID AND UPPER LAYERS SHOULD ENHANCE OUTFLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW)
WINDS AND WOULDN/T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THESE GUSTS REACH 35 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS).
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN HIGHS ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE AS 850 TEMPS AND HGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN MS COUNTIES AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) AND QUITE WEAK.

.LONG TERM...
WED SHOULD BE MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY WITH SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) SH/TS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TS) MOSTLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA). LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ALSO. AS THURSDAY
ROLLS AROUND...UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) TO THE WEST WILL BE ON AN EASTWARD MOVING
JOURNEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AND ONE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH EXTENDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACCORDINGLY.
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS QUITE DRY AT AROUND 10 PCT WHILE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS IN THE 40 TO 50 PCT
RANGE. DIDN/T GO AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) YET BUT DO HAVE 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SLIDELL THROUGH NEW ORLEANS TO
HOUMA AND PROGRESSED DOWNWARD TO 20 PCT IN NWRN AREAS.

THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL THEN QUICKLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE SERN US THIS
WEEKEND. KEPT SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL).
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL COMPRESS THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AND SHIFT IT BACK WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD MAKE ROOM FOR A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO SWING SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE
AREA.

MEFFER

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR MOBILE GREYHOUND
PARK...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...AND
DRIFTING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TILLMANS CORNER BY 405 PM CDT...
KNOLLWOOD HOSPITAL BY 415 PM CDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 050901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENTLY WATCHING A DECAYING
MCS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCS) ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM HAS PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW%20BOUNDARY) THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...RESULTING IN SBCAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SBCAPE) VALUES OF
3-4K J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) HAS BEEN TOO DRY WITH ITS POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW%20BOUNDARY) MOVING IN. DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE WETTER MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) NUMBERS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A NEARLY CLASSIC WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST)
PROFILE WITH WINDEX VALUES AROUND 65 KNOTS. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A HIGH RISK OF MICROBURSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) IS A POSSIBILITY
DUE TO LARGE CAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE) IN THE HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) GROWTH REGION AND LOW WBZ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WBZ) LEVELS AS A
RESULT OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR. SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) HAS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) WITH 15% HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) AND WIND THREATS. /13

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK: HIGH.



THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY INTERACTION OF OUTFLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW) BOUNDARIES...THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) AND
THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON THURSDAY WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)...BUT AS IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST ANYPLACE MAY CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ON THURSDAY. CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEPARTS AND THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) HAS POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA SO
WE WILL GO CLOSER TO THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) WHICH HAS BEEN A BETTER FIT LATELY
ANYWAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ON SHORE. AS USUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE TIED TO
THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) INITIATION AND ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
/11

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY SUNDAY THEN RIDGING BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS
THE FORECAST AREA IN A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INTO MONDAY
THEN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) DEVELOPS. FORECAST WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90...ABOUT NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /11

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VCTS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES WESTWARD. /13

[ROLLTIDE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTINUES TO BE
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL REMAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS
THAT SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEABREEZE DURING PEAK HEATING. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) NOT TO
MENTION PROLIFIC CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). ANOTHER MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY) DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. /13

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK: MODERATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WILL
NOT PUT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY. REASONING IS THE UPPER HIGH
OVER TEXAS WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BRINGING DRIER AIR AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH IT. H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION FOR A DAY OR SO. WILL
REINTRODUCE LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE SOUTH AND A SMALL PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) INCREASE
A BIT OVER THOSE AREAS AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES "COOL" A LITTLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE
EXPECTED MID 90S OF FRIDAY AS SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. /11


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) UPPER HIGH PULLS UP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) DEVELOPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND REMAINS IN THE GENERAL AREA INTO MID WEEK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) GETS CAUGHT UP BETWEEN THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH AND ANOTHER HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL GO BACK TO THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR DAYTIME...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90. /11

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VCTS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD. /13

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 93 70 94 73 / 30 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 91 74 92 75 / 40 20 05 10
DESTIN 90 75 90 77 / 40 20 10 10
EVERGREEN 92 66 94 69 / 20 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 94 66 95 70 / 20 05 10 05
CAMDEN 94 67 96 71 / 10 05 10 05

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 070948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. TO THE NORTHEAST A
WEAK TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STRETCHING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND LOWER GA INTO PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA). ALOFT A WEAK TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF AND N FL PENINSULA PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO
MOVE WEST AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THIS
PATTERN BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND LIFT FROM SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT WEST OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
AND OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH
TWEAK FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND PERSISTENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PERSISTENCE). /32

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL
RETURN BY SATURDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES INCREASE BACK
TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WITH BOTH
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)`ES SHOWING AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 4
INCHES FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD SO SHOULD BE A PROBLEM UNTIL POSSIBLY
SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENINGS AS DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) EFFECTS TAKE OVER BUT WILL LEAVE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY...AROUND NOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS). /11

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)A RETURN TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
EARLY MORNING ALONG THE BEACHES AS THE 500 MILLIBAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MILLIBAR) HIGH MIGRATES
BACK TO THE WEST. MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER)
VALUES REMAINING AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT IS GENERALLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) STRONG STORMS IN
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON THAT ARE EXCELLENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) PRODUCERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S.

&&

MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. WINDS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) AT TIMES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF. /32

&&

AVIATION...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS MOSTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO
IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SE
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) READINGS BELOW 50
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST DAY FOR A WHILE
THAT SURFACE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT. MOST PLACES
SHOULD GET SOME GOOD RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 93 75 90 74 / 10 20 60 20
PENSACOLA 91 77 88 76 / 20 30 60 20
DESTIN 90 78 90 78 / 30 40 60 20
EVERGREEN 93 72 93 71 / 10 20 60 20
WAYNESBORO 94 72 92 72 / 10 20 50 20
CAMDEN 94 72 95 72 / 10 20 50 20

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 081131
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... CORRECTED TEXT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AUG 8 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST WV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WV) AND IR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IR) LOOPS SHOW UPPER
LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE WEST ALONG THE AL/MS COAST THIS MORNING.
NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) DEWPTS HAVE CLIMBED TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
LIFT MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTH LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE MOSTLY OVER LAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO LESS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HEATING. MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR TEMPS TODAY DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PRECIP
MOVING IN. /32

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO A EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE). 1025
MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO WEAKEN INTO A
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN (NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)) THROUGH THE LATTER
PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ROTATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A MORE DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) PATTERN WILL RESUME BY
MONDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGE AS CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL PRIMARILY BE
DRIVEN BY DECREASING STABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABILITY) DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS....WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) STORMS REMAINING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF BOTH THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) AND MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) GUIDANCE AS TEMPERATURES WERE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER
90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /22

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS EXPECTED
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TRANSITION PERIOD
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE AN
UPPER HIGH REFORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AND EVERY
DAY...AGAIN MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S EACH DAY...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OVER
THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO A MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT...DECREASING IN
COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /32

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. IN THE COMING WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND
GENERALLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) WINDS. MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 89 75 89 75 / 50

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 082356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AUG 8 2009

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CATEGORIES NEXT 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS). WILL HAVE SOME VCSH/VCTS AT TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES THIS
EVEING...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF LOWERING OF VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)
LEVELS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...MOST SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
SHIFT WEST OF TERMINALS...BUT EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY (AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY) WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) AT TIMES. 12/DS


...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AUG 8 2009 FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW OVER
LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 596 DM H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) CENTERED OVER N GA/E TN. A DEEP
SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
RESPONSE...SENDING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. EXPECT
TO SEE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE LAND AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)
DWINDLES...EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WILL HANG TO
SMALL CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE SW ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND MAY SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS.
BY LATE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FREE.
DID RAISE THE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BACK UP TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE COAST NEAR
DAYBREAK AS INCREASED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL COMMUNITIES. OTHERWISE...IT
WILL BE A MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY) NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHILE THE RESIDUAL UPPER
LEVEL LOW RIDES NORTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS KEEPS THE GULF WIDE OPEN AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE REGION
ARE PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO RANGE FROM 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TO 2.25 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN ZONES. AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...MLCAPES WILL REACH 2000-2500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). THIS COMBINATION OF VERY
HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE WEST. THUS...HAVE 40 POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) EAST TO 60S WEST. GIVEN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...AS ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) COULD EASILY DROP 1
TO 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT DURATION. THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY). 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK... SERVING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL KEEP DAYTIME POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO) THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO TO MID
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CATEGORIES NEXT 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS). WILL HAVE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING VSBYS TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) LEVELS THROUGH 08/23Z. AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 00Z...TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST OF TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) BACK
IN AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 09/12Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/WEAK SURFACE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) PASSES OFF TO
THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) IN AND NEAR TSTMS...A
PREVAILING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS FORECAST WITH SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) TRENDING LOWER.
SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) LOOK TO HOLD STEADY NEAR A FOOT...HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL%20DISTURBANCE) MOVES WEST OF THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS RESULTS IN
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE COMING WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND
GENERALLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) WINDS. MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 75 89 75 90 / 40 60 20 50
PENSACOLA 78 90 76 91 / 40 50 20 40
DESTIN 79 90 78 88 / 30 40 20 30
EVERGREEN 71 92 71 94 / 20 50 20 40
WAYNESBORO 72 90 72 91 / 30 60 20 50
CAMDEN 71 92 72 93 / 20 50 20 40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 101036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES)
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS.
JUST TO THE WEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) PLUME FROM REMNANT MID TO UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER
LA AND MS WILL GIVE WAY TO BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OR FORCING
WITH THIS PATTERN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE
FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

[TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...WEST-EAST ORIENTATED UPPER
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AS A
MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEVELOPS OVER MIDWEST AND MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) ALL THE WAY
LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFT
WILL ALLOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER THROUGH TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT EVENTUALLY REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH THE HIGHER MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND KEPT A HIGH
END SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)/LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) STORMS REMAINING INTO THE NIGHT.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF BOTH THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) AND MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL REMAIN BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER HIGH REBUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY...AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON...BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH FRI. AS A
RESULT A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). /32

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TODAY
AND TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND EARLY
IN THE EVENING. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL ENSURE A PERSISTENT
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER)...WITH AFTERNOON RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES REAMING ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 91 74 92 74 / 60 20 50 20
PENSACOLA 91 76 92 76 / 20 10 40 20
DESTIN 89 79 91 78 / 10 10 40 20
EVERGREEN 93 73 94 72 / 60 20 50 30
WAYNESBORO 90 72 93 73 / 60 20 50 30
CAMDEN 92 72 94 72 / 60 20 40 40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 110929
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS WEAK HIGH
PRES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES) OVER MUCH OF THE SE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) MID TO
UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IS NOTED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE THIS DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER MS RIVER
BY AROUND 12Z WED. AS THIS IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) MOVES SE WITH MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT
BETTER MID FORCING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF IT OR ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING GIVING WAY TO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PWS AVERAGING AROUND 2.10. AS TEMPS CLIMB
LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PULSE) STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TODAY ACCOMPANIED MOSTLY BY HEAVY DOWNS POURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) FOLLOWED BY INCREASED FORCING ALOFT IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL LIKE
STORMS ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) AND HEAVY
RAIN. FOR TODAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS LATER
THIS MORNING SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FOLLOWED
BY MORE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. FOR NOW WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH
TONIGHT. /32

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS STALL THE TWO FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ENCOUNTER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT DIFFER IN THEIR LOCATIONS.
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) STALLS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DIRECTLY OVER
I-65...WHILE THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) MOVES THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) SOUTHEAST OF
I-65. THE 06Z NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) ACTUALLY TAKES IT WAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. YOU CAN REALLY SEE THIS REFLECTED IN THE POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIFTH PERIOD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) NUMBERS
ARE HALF OF WHAT THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) HAS. (I.E. DESTIN MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) IS 50% AND NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS
26%). FOR NOW WENT WITH THE HIGHER MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND KEPT A
HIGH END SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)/LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) NW OF I-65/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SE OF I-65 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALL DAY WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BOTH THE
MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) AND MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL REMAIN BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER HIGH REBUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 88 AND 92 DEGREES EACH
DAY...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /22

&&

.MARINE...A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THU BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) LINGERS OVER THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THROUGH EARLY SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL
WILL BE GENERALLY 1 FOOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THE FORECAST PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). /32

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TODAY
AND TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL. ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER)
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. /22

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

http://media.wkrg.com/media/live/doppler1.jpg?1250012633

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 121024
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WITH A DISTINCT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX. AS THIS TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) APPROACHES OUR REGION
TODAY...IT WILL SHUNT THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS (VALUES OVER 2
INCHES) TO ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. WITH THE
CONTRIBUTION OF PVA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PVA) COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AND THE HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EAST ALIGNED WITH THE HIGHER
PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES AND BEST UPPER FORCING. ACCORDINGLY THAT IS WHERE THE
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ARE PLACED. POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TAPER OFF TO THE 40S IN THE FAR NW
WHERE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN QUICKER... HELPING TO LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE PRELIMINARY MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS MODERATE.
THEREFORE...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH. WHILE AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) PULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PULSE) SEVERE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) PRECLUDES THE
MENTION OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS ALWAYS IN THIS
PATTERN...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL) STABILIZATION...POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LINGERING 20-30 POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF PERSISTENT ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLING WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). LOWS NEAR
70 FAR INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z THU LATEST GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLUTION DEPICTS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS GENERALLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KMSY TO JUST NORTH OF KMGM
PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND FILL THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AXIS ALIGNED FURTHER TO THE EAST STRETCHING FROM SW GA TO
SOUTH OF KPNS...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER EASTERN
AND OFFSHORE SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THU THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). DUE TO THE DEEP
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) PROFILE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). TO THE WEST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS NOTED FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT POSSIBLY
GIVING WAY TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BY SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AFTERNOON. AS
THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO FILL IT BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST PULLING THE BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WEST ACROSS THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA). BY LATE SUN
INTO MON MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK TO
MODERATE TROP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROP) WAVE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF
GIVING WAY TO DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PDS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)...GENERAL VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE TERMINALS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
EXPERIENCING THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) TO LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR)
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM)
ACTIVITY. THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING...LEAVING PREDOMINATE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ONCE AGAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE MARINE
WATERS BY TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT). A STRONGER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. A GRADUAL BUILD IN
SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED SOUTHEAST WIND. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TROPICAL LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A LARGER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS).
WHILE THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH)...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO ENTER SUCH
EXTREMES INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF GUIDANCE EITHER NOT SHOWING SUCH A FEATURE OR MUCH DIFFERENT IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 90 72 91 71 / 60 30 40 20
PENSACOLA 89 74 88 74 / 60 30 50 30
DESTIN 89 78 89 77 / 60 40 50 30
EVERGREEN 89 70 90 69 / 60 30 40 20
WAYNESBORO 91 69 94 68 / 40 20 10 20
CAMDEN 90 70 95 69 / 60 20 20 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 130458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2009


.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 13/06Z...MOST STATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE
REPORTING CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT)...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS) ARE ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. CLOSER TO THE COAST SOME IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS ARE NOTED
AND THESE MAY DETERIORATE INTO LOW VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT BY SUNRISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) ACROSS THE AREA. LESS
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) EXPECTED TOMORROW WHICH WILL MEAR LESS CHANCE FOR IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) IN
STORMS. SOME MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) AND VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) NEAR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 71 93 73 93 / 30 20 20 10
PENSACOLA 74 92 74 90 / 30 30 30 30
DESTIN 76 91 77 90 / 40 40 30 40
EVERGREEN 69 92 67 92 / 30 20 10 20
WAYNESBORO 69 93 69 94 / 20 05 05 05
CAMDEN 69 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

XUS64 KMOB 141149 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...PATCHY LIGHT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) EARLY ON WILL MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CB)`S THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. FOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS...CAVOK. TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 18Z AND WILL BE OFFERED IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 21Z. /10

&&

*******************FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*************************


.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
EXTENDING FROM THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WEST OF THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DRY%20SLOT) OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAPED EAST-WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
GULF COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE EAST GULF. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
(SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES 13+ G/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=G/KG)) AND BETTER INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY). RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND SOME SKIRTING THE
BEACHES/COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...FORECASTERS HAVE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
COVERAGES CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF WET WEATHER
TODAY...MINIMAL TO NONE. THE SURFACE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS TO OUR EAST LOOKS TO
BEGIN EASING WESTWARD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA STILL
LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AND GULF WATERS. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS SATURDAY AM IN LOWER/MID 70S.

TODAYS PRELIMINARY WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK ASSESSMENT IS LOW. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON SATURDAY...A PIECE OF IT IS FORECAST TO
BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS ENERGY (BEST SEEN AT 1.5
PV SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)) RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL HELP THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) TO SHIFT WEST WITH A DEEPER SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACCORDINGLY RESPOND WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN
THE EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE EASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE THE
GREATEST. WHILE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL DWINDLE OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PERSISTING.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE A RATHER WET DAY ACROSS THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA).
THE CULPRIT FOR THIS IJOE MANISCALCOS ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE)
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. BOTH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
AND ECWMF APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WELL AND BOTH MOVE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
WINDS...IT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) IN PRECIP WATERS STRAIGHT
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICS) (POSSIBLY OVER 2.25 INCHES) WHICH SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS WAVE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY...KEEPING AN ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) AFTERNOON CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WILL KEEP POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN THE 30/40
PERCENT RANGE...FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

HIGHS SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)-MON SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO) DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS RIDGING BUILDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO)...HIGHS SHOULD
FOLLOW SUIT AND CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 34/JFB


&&

.MARINE...FORECASTERS ARE WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE) OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO CONTINUE WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE BRINGS AN INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AS WELL AS
SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ON SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE) WILL BE AT ITS
CLOSEST. FORECASTERS ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THE
WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS MON/TUE UNDER
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. /10

$$

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. AFTER ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) CLOSER TO THE COAST... MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
DEVELOPS. A TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE) WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SERVING
TO FURTHER ENHANCE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 93 73 89 74 / 20 10 40 30
PENSACOLA 91 75 88 76 / 20 20 60 40
DESTIN 90 76 87 77 / 30 20 60 40
EVERGREEN 92 70 89 72 / 10 10 50 30
WAYNESBORO 93 69 92 72 / 05 05 20 20
CAMDEN 93 70 91 72 / 05 05 30 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 150922
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AUG 15 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A COMPLICATED PATTERN IN THE HIGH
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE). TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST...FORECASTERS
ANALYZE THAT 1) AN INVERTED SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) ZONE/TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WAS DEEPLY REFLECTED IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WEST OF
THIS FEATURE...LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) DATA SHOWS ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHWRS
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL OF MORNING WATERSPOUTS IN SHWRS NEAR THE
COAST AND BAYS. SPOUTS CAN ALSO FORM IN RAIN FREE CUMULUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUMULUS) CLOUDS. 2)
AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS UPPER LOW WAS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE).
AS UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NOSES WESTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A WEST/NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TO THE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)/TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE) FEATURES. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE
WILL BE A WESTWARD SHIFT AND INCREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AS
WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) LIFT SUPPORTIVE OF A MODERATE COVERAGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS. THE HIGHEST OF WHICH WE HAVE PLACED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE
IN THE BETTER DEVELOPED CELLS. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHWRS/TSTMS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE A
BIT MORE MODIFIED (MID/UPPER 80S) OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DUE TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND INFLUENCE FROM SHWRS/TSTMS. LOWER 90S EXPECTED
IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. /10

TODAYS PRELIMINARY WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK ASSESSMENT IS MODERATE. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK RATHER
WET ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE)...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER CUBA...MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO
MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS...WHICH WILL ALREADY BE NEAR 2 INCHES
DUE TO A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS THE WAVE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH. THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)
SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) IN THIS TROPICAL REGIME...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING
INLAND. GIVEN SUCH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)
WILL BE A THREAT AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE MORNING HWO. THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS STAY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EXPANDING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUE-THU. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) TREND OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WITH DECREASING
COVERAGES. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
90S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) BEGINS TO BREAK BACK DOWN AS
YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THEN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

THE STRENGTH AND EVENTUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL BE CRUCIAL IN
THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) ANA. THE CURRENT NHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NHC) FORECAST
BRINGS ANA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA IN 5 DAYS. THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AT THAT TIME WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE STORM
COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO THE GULF OR BEGIN TO CURVE NORTHWARD
PRIOR TO REACHING FLORIDA. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AND IT POSES NO THREAT TO OUR AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECASTS/ADVISORIES. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION [06Z ISSUANCE]...ISO/SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) EARLY THIS MORNING
COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65 AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 17Z. STORMS
COULD LOWER CIGS TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVELS AND VSBYS BRIEFLY FALLING OFF TO
VLIFR/LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) LEVELS IN +TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). /10

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND...LATEST WIND SPEED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20SPEED)
FORECASTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY BAD...WITH PREVAILING FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERING
FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) AND RANGE OF SPEED...SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET PER
BRETSCHNEIDER WAVE NOMOGRAM. MARINE AREA WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WITH THE WESTWARD PASSAGE OF THE WAVES...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGES OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS/WAVES AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE NEAR
SHORE THIS MORNING AS WELL. WE ARE THEN BACK TO A MORE DIURNALLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHWRS/TSTMS TUE/WED OF
NEXT WEEK.

WILL BE KEEPING A WARY EYE ON TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) ANA...FORECAST BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) CENTER TO BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE WED...AT WHICH TIME JUST SHY OF HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) STRENGTH. /10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 160419
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AUG 15 2009

.AVIATION...(00Z AND 06Z)APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
TROPICAL WAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20WAVE) MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CIGS...SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 170931
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
431 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...CLAUDETTE MADE LANDFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LANDFALL) BETWEEN
FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT). WALTON BEACH AND DESTIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE LANDFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LANDFALL)...THE
STRUCTURE OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) OVER THE FL BIG BEND...BECOMING DETACHED WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NOW MOVING UP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AL
ZONES. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS WITH
ALL WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN DETACHED RAINBANDS. FORECASTERS FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
IS GREATEST EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TODAY...EAST OF A LINE FROM
PENSACOLA FL TO EVERGREEN TO GREENVILLE AL...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD)
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) (FFA) REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 18/00Z...7PM LOCAL TIME MON. STORM
TOTAL RAINS IN THE FFA AREA COULD AMOUNT TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...WITH THE
EXPECTED NW PROGRESS OF THE REMNANT LOW OF CLAUDETTE...WE CARRY A
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CAMDEN TO CHATOM AL...ELSEWHERE WE HAVE A CHANCE IN. DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
TONIGHT`S LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...ALTHOUGH CLAUDETTE WILL BE OUT
OF THE PICTURE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP ENVIRONMENTAL
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ON THE HIGH SIDE. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER A MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MODE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WITH HIGHER CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) IS GREATEST AND LOWER CHANCES DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SINK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) BRING THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE GULF COAST.
CONSIDERING THIS...POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TREND WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMATOLOGY)...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE THOUGH...DOES NOT
SUGGEST MUCH OF A COOL DOWN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR LATE AUGUST. /10

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...WITH TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) CLAUDETTE MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND ANTICIPATED CONTINUED WEAKENING...WILL START WITH
PRIMARILY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) THROUGH 16Z. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL SEE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS FORM BY 16Z AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE
PREVAILING LIGHT TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) THROUGH 01Z FOR ANTICIPATED PERIODS OF
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AFTER 01Z WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM)
CLAUDETTE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF CLAUDETTE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)
AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER TODAY. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AS CLAUDETTE
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FRIDAY NIGHT. /29


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) REMAINS HIGH.
COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS REMAIN HIGH TODAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF
CLAUDETTE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST AL. A
MODERATE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 74 90 74 / 70 50 60 20
PENSACOLA 85 74 89 75 / 80 40 40 20
DESTIN 83 76 89 76 / 90 30 40 20
EVERGREEN 83 69 89 70 / 90 50 50 20
WAYNESBORO 86 71 90 72 / 70 60 70 20
CAMDEN 84 70 88 71 / 80 60 60 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...AND ESCAMBIA.

FL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 180918
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE ARE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH A RICH PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. A 500-300 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA. AREA RADARS SHOW ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SUPPORTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOIST PROFILE WITH HIGH WET BULB
ZERO VALUES...CAPES UP TO 2K J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AND LOW HELICITIES DUE TO LIGHT
STEERING WINDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STEERING%20WINDS)...SUGGESTING TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN FOR THE
EVENING HOURS TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT
BY CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TODAY AND ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
FORECASTERS ARE ALSO WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF ANA...NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE...PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) SIGNAL...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...COMING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ERODES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF HEIGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEIGHT) FALLS...THIS
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL. WITH CONDENSATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONDENSATION)
PRESSURE DEFICITS => 30-50MB...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)...SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO BE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) RIGHT ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIODS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
DEEPEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) BEING SHUNTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS IN FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL VERY NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SHOWING NUMBERS VERY NEAR CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO).
HOWEVER...GRIDDED HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. /10

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WILL START WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CEILINGS WITH VCSH
FOR THE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE AREA THEN
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE A PROB30 GROUP IN FOR
EVENING DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) BUT OTHERWISE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINS A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY THEN STALLS NEAR THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. DAYTIME HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) REMAINS HIGH IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS INCREASING EACH DAY. LOWER
COVERAGES EXPECTED AT NIGHT. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 75 88 76 / 70 40 70 40
PENSACOLA 87 75 87 76 / 70 30 60 30
DESTIN 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 60 40
EVERGREEN 89 71 90 72 / 70 30 70 30
WAYNESBORO 89 71 90 74 / 70 40 70 30
CAMDEN 89 72 90 73 / 70 30 70 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 190839
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) REMNANTS OF ANA ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. OTHER SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL EASTERLY EDDIES RELATED
TO THE LATTER FEATURE GRADUALLY WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WHICH WILL INITIATE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION).
THUS...LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR LINGERING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION).
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES...VERY HIGH WET BULB ZERO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WET%20BULB%20ZERO)
VALUES NEAR 16.5 KFT...CAPES UP TO 1.9K J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AND LOW HELICITIES DUE
TO LIGHT STEERING WINDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STEERING%20WINDS). THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM)
ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT AND LIGHT STEERING WINDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STEERING%20WINDS) PORTEND THAT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AND NUISANCE FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK
IS MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
TODAY AND BE ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO
ELEVATED DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) SIGNALS (PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) EXCEEDING 2.25") OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FIRST...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ANA WHICH WILL BE PULLING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE OTHER...STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WHICH WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE
WILL BE ON THE WET...EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) IMPULSES IN THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
TRAVERSE THE REGION AND INTERACT/LIFT DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE).
NIGHTTIME MINS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO) FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY AM WITH DAILY HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL. OF NOTE: THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THIS TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) INTO THE EAST WILL CAUSE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO BREAK
DOWN. THIS ALLOWS DANGEROUS HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) BILL...CHURNING OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TO UNDERGO RECURVATURE AND BEND NORTHWARD.

THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/AND
CANADIAN GEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE
GULF COAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A DRYING OUT TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON NIGHTTIME LOWS WITH WAKING UP READINGS
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING GIVE WAY TO
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
HAVE A PROB30 GROUP IN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
LINGERING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WITH OTHERWISE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINS A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA WHICH GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADVANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). A GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MARINE
AREA. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
REMAINING HIGH. COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS GREATEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...DECREASING IN COVERAGE AT NIGHT. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 76 89 75 / 70 30 60 20
PENSACOLA 87 76 90 76 / 70 30 60 20
DESTIN 88 77 89 77 / 70 30 50 20
EVERGREEN 89 73 91 72 / 70 30 70 30
WAYNESBORO 88 72 90 73 / 70 30 70 30
CAMDEN 89 73 91 73 / 70 30 60 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 200834
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/MAPS THIS
MORNING SHOWS FORECAST AREA BEING DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS KEEPS THE PERSISTENT DEEP GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN PLACE WITH 00Z
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST SHOWING PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) ~2.25" AND
THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) PROFILES NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC). JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...THE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING AS
UPPER TROFFING DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. INTERACTING WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...INCREASING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) LIFT
SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. A PRELIMINARY WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY
INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF ANY STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER...WITH THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)...THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THAT
STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) PRODUCERS. THIS WILL
POSE MORE OF A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS AS VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CAN BECOME QUICKLY
REDUCED AND PONDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PONDING) OF WATER ON ROADS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
HYDROPLANING. NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN URBAN
AREAS. FORECASTERS CALL FOR A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGES TONIGHT.
AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF TSTMS...LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH READINGS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 88 OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY). /10

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WELL TO THE
NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
THE WEAK TRAILING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. WILL STAY WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR FRIDAY AS A SOUPY
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2.2
INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN NUSIANCE FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE NEAR 2500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)...WITH
WET BULB ZERO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WET%20BULB%20ZERO) VALUES NEAR 15 KFT AND LOW HELICITIES DUE TO A LIGHT
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEVERE%20THUNDERSTORM)
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP. A SHARPLY
AMPLIFIED 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE EASTERN STATES SETS UP A DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WHICH USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUES DROP DOWN TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ONE INCH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY HALF THE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL KEEP
SMALL POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SATURDAY TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SOMEWHAT MODERATED BY CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ON FRIDAY THEN WARMER DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SHARP UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE EASTERN STATES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT A WEAKNESS LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DEEP LAYER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ABATES ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ENSUING ON
TUESDAY WHICH GRADUALLY RETURNS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO THE AREA. WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
PACKAGE WHICH RETURNS POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) GRADUALLY TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A EXPECTED RETURN TO SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) INITIATED
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT
ON THE COOL SIDE AT NIGHT. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...EXPECT MORNING CB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CB)`S TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) POSSIBLE BY AND AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 18Z. WILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVELS IN STORMS WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY LOWERING BRIEFLY TO LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR)/VLIFR LEVELS DUE TO THE +RA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RA)
POTENTIAL. CIGS LIFTING AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 00Z WITH SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) DECREASING IN
COVERAGE. COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT BR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BR) AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 06Z IN THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE +RA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RA) TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. /10

&&

.MARINE...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) LOCALLY HIGHER IN SHWRS/TSTMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EASES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT (LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)) TO THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). THE
OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) LOOKS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ~2 FEET...TO AT TIMES 3 FEET GIVEN
THE PLACEMENT OF AND STRENGTH OF THE FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH). /10

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 89 76 89 70 / 80 40 70 40
PENSACOLA 87 76 87 73 / 80 40 70 40
DESTIN 88 78 87 76 / 80 40 70 50
EVERGREEN 88 74 89 68 / 80 40 70 30
WAYNESBORO 89 74 89 64 / 80 40 70 30
CAMDEN 89 74 90 67 / 80 40 70 30

&&

[David70094]

That's enough.....what's up with this 50-60% chance of rain for days on days on days..... and not getting any rain here in the Westwego/Bridge City area..... or is anybody else experiencing the same thing? Thunder....Lightening...Dark Clouds...and no Rain....for like the ....upm tenth time. Even when it rains.....it seems like it's trying it's best not to. I wouldn't post.....but it's getting rediculous.....again today.

[ROLLTIDE]

anything under a 40% = severe weather storms
over 40% = means no rain and lots of sun

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 210944
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
444 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009


.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL INCREASE EARLY ON
AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH THIS EVENING. STAYED WITH
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER MADE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PERSISTENCE). 6HR QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
EXPECTING FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA) TONIGHT WITH A CLEAN SWEEP...DROPPING POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVERNIGHT
TO ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED). /77

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE EASTERN
STATES WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MAY BE SUCH THAT A DRY FORECAST PANS OUT FOR
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) NEAR THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AS IT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP) NEAR 600-700 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) SUPPORTING A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES
DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ONE INCH BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE AT NIGHT. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A WEAK UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS THE
FEATURE SHIFTING GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER PHASING
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS LATTER
EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE GEM AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) RETROGRADE THE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND BY AN EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL
REINTRODUCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THURSDAY
AS RECOVERING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND A SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
/29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) AND IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) OVER MOST OF THE REGION BUT
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL INCREASE EARLY ON BRINGING IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) DOWN TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS. PATCHES OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION WILL
LIFT EARLY. CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES. /77

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PAST THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
MARINE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK BEHIND ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. /77

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 89 72 93 68 / 70 30 10 05
PENSACOLA 89 74 91 70 / 70 40 20 10
DESTIN 87 79 90 72 / 70 40 20 10
EVERGREEN 89 70 89 62 / 70 30 10 10
WAYNESBORO 89 70 89 60 / 70 30 10 05
CAMDEN 89 69 90 62 / 60 30 10 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Down to 66 F

[ROLLTIDE]

66.2 already :)

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 240919
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR CONTINUES BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MOST
LOCATIONS AND THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS....WITH MIN TEMPS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AT MANY LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S...AND INTO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
SOME MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUING. 12/DS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE RESULTS
ASSERT 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED
AND SPIN OFF A CLOSED 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 OUTPUT INDICATES THE EAST COAST TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL BE SWINGING
BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND WESTLANT FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 DAYS OR SO.
IN ADDITION TO AN OMEGA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OMEGA) BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDLANT STATES ALLOWING THE GULF TO OPEN UP
BY MIDWEEK. AT THAT POINT SEABREEZE PROCESSES WILL DEVELOP TO BRING
IN THE WATER VAPOR AND MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ALSO WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVE IT NORTH ALONG THE
GULF STREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GULF%20STREAM) OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH MAY BE A SIGNAL THE MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) PICKED
UP WHEN SLOWLY DECLINING THE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK. FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA) WINDOW
ASSOCIATED THEREWITH IS SUGGESTED BY ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) FOR THURSDAY AND THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS STAY TOGETHER PRETTY WELL IN THE 24/0000 CYCLE OUT TO TAU=120
HR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HR). THE FLIP-FLOPPING OBSERVED BY THE DAY SHIFT...THAT THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS
BEEN SUFFERING FROM...HAS SEEMINGLY SETTLED DOWN A LITTLE AT LEAST
CLOSER TO SHORE. ITS POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FORECAST HAS SLIPPED BACK A BIT LATER IN
THE WEEK TOWARD THURSDAY AS WAS MENTIONED BY THE DAY SHIFT FOR THE
12Z RUN. SO NOW IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BELIEVABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
CALCULATED...SO WILL STICK WITH THE 24/0000Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX). LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THOUGH
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK. 77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLEAR) SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) WINDS
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
WEAK SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION). OVERALL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BECOME MORE
PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY CONTINUING INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WEAKENS. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) LOW. ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WITH EMBEDDED
SEABREEZE WILL RETURN TO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA AREAS MIDWEEK WITH A
REBOUND IN HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO UPPER 30S
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY INLAND AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY ELSEWHERE.
77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 85 62 88 67 / 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 86 67 88 70 / 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 86 69 82 72 / 00 00 05 10
EVERGREEN 86 60 90 64 / 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 85 58 90 63 / 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 86 60 90 65 / 00 00 05 10

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 251014
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING COOLER THAN MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...ALTHOUGH
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR TODAY AGAIN WENT
WITH NUMBERS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOST MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALSO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. A FEW LOWER 70S EXPECTED RIGHT ON THE BEACHES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUING...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT NEAR
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z WED MID TO UPPER CUT OFF LOW IS CENTERED MOSTLY
OVER LA AND SW MS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO DRIFT ENE AND FILL OR WEAKEN OVER E AL
AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH FRI. THIS PATTERN INITIALLY GIVES WAY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) MOVING IN FROM THE EAST LATE WED THROUGH THU
AFFECTING EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT FILLING IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING THE DAY ON THU. BOTH
THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) WITH
THIS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK DEPICTING SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...FOR MOST AREAS IN THE
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING THE DAY ON THU. AS MID TO UPPER LOW LIFTS ENE AND FILLS
FRI THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING PVA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PVA) AND MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN FROM THE WEST AS A SERIES OF WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WFO)`S AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN FROM THE EAST LATE WED THROUGH THU.
BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DIGS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND SE
STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
UNSEASONAL COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MON INTO TUE NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WITH FAIRLY DECENT MECHANICAL LIFT OR MID LEVEL FORCING IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
/32

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THE MARINE AREA FROM THE EAST. A GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING WIND
PATTERN WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE SHORE
DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE LOWER
THAN NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TODAY AND WED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO A
PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY NE`WARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
COAST. UPPER LOW MOVING OVER LA AND MS TODAY AND WED WILL EVENTUALLY
ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATE WED
INTO THU GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
AREAS ON THU. SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) TO CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH
OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATE FRI AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DIGS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). DRIER COOLER CONDITION WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE MON INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 67 90 69 / 00 05 10 10
PENSACOLA 86 69 88 71 / 00 05 20 20
DESTIN 87 71 88 72 / 00 10 30 20
EVERGREEN 87 63 91 64 / 00 05 10 20
WAYNESBORO 89 64 92 64 / 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 90 64 95 65 / 00 10 10 10

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 261009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) OVER LOUISIANA
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) A WEAK TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW
PRESSURE IS REELECTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS MAINLY WITH THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING WEST
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SHIFTING
NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE AL AND NWFL COAST BY AROUND 12Z
THU MORNING. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND A BIT EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES INCREASES AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AROUND THE
LOW DRAWS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INTO IT. VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=REFLECTION) HAS INCREASED THE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) INTO
THE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WILL
DISCOUNT THE APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEED BACK IN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BUT STILL WILL BE SOME CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) LINGERING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE
HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY. /11

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WITH A
SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND AS A
RESULT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) STILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FORECAST WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TO ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CHANCES ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FINALLY GETS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW 60 OVER THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. /11

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL%20DISTURBANCE) OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF THE LOW THROUGH FRI AND
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCED OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /32

&&

MARINE...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE AL AND NWFL COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THU AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 67 88 71 / 00 20 40 40
PENSACOLA 86 72 85 72 / 05 20 70 50
DESTIN 85 75 86 73 / 10 40 70 50
EVERGREEN 91 64 88 67 / 05 10 50 50
WAYNESBORO 90 62 89 64 / 00 10 30 30
CAMDEN 91 64 91 66 / 05 10 30 30

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 270504 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1159 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A BREAK IN SKY COVER WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO CREATE PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) OVER AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING POCKETS OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) AND IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE THUNDERSTORMS. /08

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) (PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW)) VALUES
BELOW 1.50 INCHES. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED
RAIN-FREE FOR ANOTHER DAY DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI/EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
THAT DID DEVELOP WAS CONFINED TO AREAS OF ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...MAINLY
WEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS SOUTHWARD. THE CENTER WILL APPROXIMATELY
BE OVER THE LOUISIANA DELTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS I-65 BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HEATING
DECREASES ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABILITY). AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS. LESSER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER
80S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
INLAND...AND THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PERIODS AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLED A LONGWAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) TO SETTLE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...RESULTING IN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.MARINE...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) OVER MS/LA IS CREATING A
LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) DIFFLUENCE ATOP A WEAK INVERTED TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST. THE RESULT IS QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUD COVER/SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST GULF.
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL ORIGINS IN THIS AREA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
ALSO HIGH (~1018 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)) AND ARE NOT FALLING. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR AND AMOUNT OF DISTURBED WEATHER PRESENT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE ON THINGS THERE. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS LIFT SURFACE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) NORTH NORTHWEST UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS... FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO
PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE
FLORIDA WATERS THU/THU NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SETS UP EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. IN THE
WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW
FOR A BUILDING TREND IN SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) MAINLY LATE MONDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) LOOK TO OCCUR BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE THEN...DUE TO THE
FORECAST DURATION/STRENGTH OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH). /10

&&

.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOB AND BFM
TERMINALS. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 15Z/THU AS A
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF DRIFTS NORTH NORTHWEST.
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. /10

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 280900
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)DANCE OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING
INTO UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WILL DEFINE BEST AREAS
FOR LEAST PRECIP. THIS DRIER AIR WILL AFFECT EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)
INITIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HOW FAST THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OCCURS WILL
DEFINE HOW MUCH HEATING THE AREA RECEIVES. EXPECTING WARMEST TEMPS
OVER WESTERN-MOST AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WITH BEST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) NORTHEAST. /16

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS LOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
BY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS. A
WEAK COOL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL DROP TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
TEXAS. ENOUGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW FOR A
SMALL POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF FORECAST AREA AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). THE FIRST
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST AS ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
SECOND FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND TWO INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP OFF 3 TO 5 DEGREES ON SUNDAY FROM SATURDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) IN THE AREA. /11

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) PASSES. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
EVENING EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. EXPECT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO
BE RAIN FREE AS MOSTLY NORTHWEST OR ZONAL UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) KEEPS DEEPER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WELL OUT OVER THE GULF. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...GENERALLY 85 TO NEAR 90 WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH MOST LOWS IN THE MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER INTERIOR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE BEACHES. /11
&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL CREATE PATCHES
OF LOW STRATO-CU (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CU)...WITH LOWER AND MORE DENSE COVERAGE OVER EAST
FACING RIDGES(KMOB FOR EX). AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LOW
LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL DRY SOME AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY...LESSENING THE
CHANCES OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) OR LOW CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

/16

&&

.MARINE...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) MOVES OFF...LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ASSERT
CONTROL...BRINGING A LIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THE AL/NW FL
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL SAG TOWARDS...THEN STALL OVER AL/NW FL
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY....STALL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) PUSHING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH GIVE ANOTHER
PUSH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE MARINE
FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...MODERATE AT TIMES...INTO MID WEEK.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN THEY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).
SECOND FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR BUT AM NOT EXPECTING SURFACE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) TO GET BELOW 40 PERCENT
UNTIL POSSIBLY TUESDAY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 70 91 71 / 40 20 20 20
PENSACOLA 84 72 90 74 / 40 20 20 20
DESTIN 85 74 87 75 / 30 20 20 20
EVERGREEN 84 66 90 68 / 50 20 20 20
WAYNESBORO 86 66 92 68 / 30 20 20 30
CAMDEN 84 66 92 68 / 50 20 20 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KMOB 290851
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AUG 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)A COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND A VORT LOW SWINGING
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT ENDING NORTHWEST OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) BY SUDNAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING BEST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...THOUGH A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE OF TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) MEANDERING
EAST OVER MS/AL COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM) IS INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
BARELY RESOLVED BY THE MODELS. HAVE PUT ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER MARIN FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) FOR
TODAY TO ACCOUNT.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.

/16

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BY SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD BE
JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AREAS. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DROPS DEEPER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) MOVES OVER THE STILL MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSTABLE%20AIR)
MASS ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND TO LIMIT THE
HEATING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO GET SOUTH OF THE COAST SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS LAGGING
BACK TO THE WEST...DO EXPECT THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO BE EAST OF DESTIN BY
SUNRISE MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND A BIT
WARMER ON MONDAY. /11

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)BOTH THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SHOW
THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) RETROGRADING A BIT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FROM THE
EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD SEND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INTO THE
AREA...NOT QUITE AS SOGGY AS OUR USUAL GULF AIR MASS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS) THIS TIME OF
YEAR BUT SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS BACK
IN THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
WEST OF AREA AND DRAWS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) DEEPER INTO FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
GENERALLY 85 TO 90 WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY 60S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
/11

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)AN ADVANCING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FORECAST..MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) DEBRIS
CLOUDS. BEST CHANCE FOR LIMITING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WITH EASTERN SECTIONS SEEING
GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS.

/16

&&

.MARINE...A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOWARDS AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) OVER
THE WEEKEND...THEN STALL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND
PUSH WILL SEND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH OF THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) FOLLOWING. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WILL WASH OUT MID WEEK...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SETTING UP THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND A LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACT.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANY SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS WITH JUST A VERY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ELSEWHERE.
WINDS LIGHT VARIABLE BECOMING WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10
MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ERRATIC WINDS EARLY
BECOMING NORTHERLY STARTING IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
SLIPS SOUTH. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MOSTLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 90 72 85 70 / 20 20 60 30
PENSACOLA 90 74 85 72 / 10 10 40 30
DESTIN 87 79 87 74 / 10 10 40 30
EVERGREEN 90 69 85 67 / 10 20 60 40
WAYNESBORO 90 68 85 64 / 30 30 70 40
CAMDEN 91 69 85 65 / 10 20 70 40

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 300828
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)AS A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STRETCHING FROM NEAR
THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO GRAND NE OVER THE MS DELTA...THEN ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) AND TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). AS THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) MOVED NORTHEAST OF
THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) TONIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) TONIGHT.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) TEMPS NORTHWEST A BIT...WITH THE EXPECTED LOSS OF
INSOLATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSOLATION) AND COOLING BY THE RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
WHERE THE EDGE OF THIS COOLER AREA WILL BE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA).

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.

/16

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT ANS IT
WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TAKE THE REST OF MONDAY FOR THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO MOVE EAST OF
DESTIN. WILL HAVE 20 PERCENT POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT...LEAVING A LOW POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
FOR MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND A
WEAK SUB-TROPICAL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) EXPECTED TO SEND CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) ACROSS THE AREA THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
THE FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP WITH THE DELAYED
DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND ARE NOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S. HIGHER PWATS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THANKS TO THE STALLING
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) HAS LED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS IN THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF. /11

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WOULD HAVE LIKED TO
REMOVE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVING TO THE REGION AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ALONG WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
CONTENT OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST
LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOONS. 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS THE BOARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5)
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES NEAR ZONAL. A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT BUT
WILL EXPECT SOME CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES REACHING TO AROUND 90. /11

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) PASSES NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) TO MIFR
CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THE I65 CORRIDOR...AND
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED NORTHWEST...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
OVER THE AREA.

/16

&&

.MARINE...AFTER A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) MOVES PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) TODAY
INTO TODAY...A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL GET
DRAWN/PUSHED TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY MORN. IT WILL
THEN STALL INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AS A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND AN
UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...GET PUSHED SOUTH OF THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT HOW
FAR SOUTH...WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE ADVERTISING BARELY SOUTH OF THE
MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING AGAIN. FROM TUESDAY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY`S...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE
ON THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A GENERAL
OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BEING MAINTAINED INTO FRIDAY. FROM THERE...THE
NORTHERLY PUSH WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR A SYNOPTICALLY LIGHT FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO BE
GOVERNED BY A DAILY GULF BREEZE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BUT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
SOME RAIN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
/11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 71 87 68 / 70 30 20 20
PENSACOLA 87 73 87 70 / 60 40 30 20
DESTIN 86 78 87 72 / 50 40 40 20
EVERGREEN 87 69 85 65 / 80 50 30 10
WAYNESBORO 83 66 87 63 / 90 30 10 10
CAMDEN 84 68 87 66 / 90 50 20 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 310930
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO EASTERN TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY)
TODAY...AND THEN MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS STRONG 1027 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PATCHY DENSE HAD
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLEAR) SKIES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS UNLIKELY
HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
EARLY A.M. CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...BUT AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) OR TWO
COULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING SOUTHEAST OF I-65. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 80S EVERYWHERE (ABOUT
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)). LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH OF I-10 TO THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DEVIATION IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARISE...WITH THE
NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/SREF ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) BY TUESDAY MORN ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH IS
MOVING OVER/SOUTH OF THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM)...WHILST THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH).
RESULT IS THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) PUSHING MORE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) FROM THE
EAST...WITH HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND LOWER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. HAVE WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULTANT VERIFICATION
USUALLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EVEN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS DEVELOPED A
SURFACE CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) HAS MEANDERED
ITS SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD A BIT...TO WEST OF TAMPA BY WEDNESDAY MORN.
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS MOVED AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH THE CONTINUED GREATER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INFLUX BEING ADVERTISED
BY THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVERSPREAD THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...WHILST THE
WEAKER...LATER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW(A SURFACE LOW IS BEING
ADVERTISED DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING) IN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS RESULTING
IN ANOTHER DRY DAY...POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP)- WISE. HAVE AGAIN WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH
THE SREF BEARING THIS BLENDED APPROACH OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
A SECOND...LESS ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...PUSHING THE OHIO RIVER LOW OFF AND LEAVING AN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INTO THE
WEEKEND...THIS SECOND UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE WEST A BIT AS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS...THEN ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). THIS LEAVES THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER MORE FAVORABLE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...AND POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)/TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)OCCASIONAL LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 15:00Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 18:00Z. VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS WEEK. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) TRIES
TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) OF COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ESTABLISHED LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...EASTERN HALF OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) INCLUDED. AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK...DRIER AIR WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE AREA...DRYING OUT
THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
SATURDAY...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 66 88 67 86 / 10 05 30 20 30
PENSACOLA 86 70 87 69 86 / 30 10 40 20 30
DESTIN 85 72 84 74 84 / 40 10 40 30 30
EVERGREEN 85 63 85 65 84 / 10 05 30 30 30
WAYNESBORO 85 61 87 63 85 / 05 05 20 10 30
CAMDEN 85 61 85 65 85 / 05 05 30 20 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 010934
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)AXIS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) NUMBER
ONE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
NORTHERN GULF...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AXIS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) NUMBER TWO...CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS...WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS).
ALSO OF NOTE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR
THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND THEN EXPAND FURTHER WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STAY MAINLY EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER.
ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY MID EVENING...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) MAY ALSO
DEVELOP UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD POSE
ONLY MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY).

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 85 TO 88
DEGREES (OR ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)). LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
I-10 TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW IS/HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE
MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS
TIME...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SURFACE A SURFACE
CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) EITHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX)(NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)) OR OVER NE
FL(GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)). THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MOISTER EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) FOR THE
NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)...A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) FOR THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE
MID MISS RIVER UPPER LOW SWINGING EAST...TO OVER THE CENTRAL TENN/KY
STATE LINE IN THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)...OVER NORTHERN KY IN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)....PUSHING THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OFF THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) EVEN MORE SOUTH. WITH
THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) MAINTAINING THE MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT EVEN AS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) MEANDERS EAST...TO OVER THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...PREDICTABLY ARE HIGHER IN THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) THAN
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE AGAIN WENT IN
THE MIDDLE TO START FOR THE FORECAST...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW
OVER KY/TENN SWINGING SOMEWHAT NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ADVERTISING THIS LOW
WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EAST OF THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
DEVELOPS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). BOTH
EVENTUALLY FILL THIS TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ...WITH THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY WEAKENING AND GETTING DRAWN OFF AS A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...LEANING A MORE WEST TO EAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). WITH THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND ...STRETCHING SOUTH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...RETURNS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RETURNING
BY THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. A MORE ESTABLISHED EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) FILLS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH A
RETURN OF SEASONAL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 68 86 67 86 / 05 10 20 10 20
PENSACOLA 88 71 86 68 86 / 10 20 30 20 20
DESTIN 86 73 84 71 84 / 20 20 30 20 20
EVERGREEN 86 67 83 64 85 / 20 20 30 20 20
WAYNESBORO 86 65 85 62 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN 85 66 82 64 86 / 20 20 30 20 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 020950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)AXIS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD...REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO LOW-END
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR
THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND THEN EXPAND FURTHER WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN BY MID EVENING...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) MAY ALSO DEVELOP UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD POSE ONLY MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY).

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHEAST ZONES...TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
I-10 TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THURSDAY STARTS WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN KY...MORE OR LESS...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS STILL
INCONSISTENT IN A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX)/FL...WITHE THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SAYING YES...A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED AND IS
OF FL...WHILE THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) HAS MORE OF A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION)
CENTER.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) CONTINUING SOUTH EAST...TO OVER MO...WITH
SOME ORGANIZATION AS THE WESTERN KY ONE STARTS TO MOVE OFF NORTHEAST.
ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LESSEN AS THE DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THAT IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT MOVES OFF. THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR ANY
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA). STILL HAVE SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)
GUIDANCE...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA).
NAME IS ADVERTISING HIGH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...MAINLY DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS
BEING ADVERTISED MOVING OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) BY THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) INTO THURSDAY. COASTAL
STATIONS TO THE EAST ARE ALREADY AROUND 2" IN THE PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS....1.5" INLAND GA. AM PRETTY SURE THAT MOISTER AIR WILL WORK
ITS WAY OVER THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH...HAVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) SOLUTIONS. SOUTHEASTERN FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...THE ENERGY WHICH MOVED OVER MO THURS/THURS NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE
AREA IN THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY SEASONAL...TEMP
WISE...BELOW SEASONAL POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) WISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
THIS PLAINS UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) NORTH INTO MONDAY...THEN SWING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
TUESDAY AS A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TODAY`S GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...OVER
SOUTHERN CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)...WITH THE CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
HANDING AROUND AS A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) LONGER...INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES N THE UPPER PATTER...WITH THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
ADVERTISING A TROPICAL SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC(A
CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED ERIKA)...THEN SWINGING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILST THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ADVERTISING ANOTHER POSSIBLE
JIMENA NEAR BAJA. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SWINGS ERIKA FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN BEFORE SWINGING IT NORTH OVER THE FL PENINSULA OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SWINGING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE PLAINS LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ENSEMBLES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLES) AGREE
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) PASSING...BUT WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES(ENSEMBLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLE) MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) MOVES IT THROUGH MUCH QUICKER). THIS
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WAS ADVERTISED IN YESTERDAY`S 12Z
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 02/15Z AND 03/02Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GULF REGION...AND
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL
MOISTEN INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL LAST
INTO FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 67 87 67 88 / 20 20 20 10 20
PENSACOLA 85 70 87 70 87 / 30 20 20 10 20
DESTIN 83 71 84 74 85 / 40 20 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 82 66 86 63 88 / 30 20 20 10 20
WAYNESBORO 84 65 87 62 88 / 20 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN 82 65 85 63 88 / 30 20 20 10 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 021735 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2009

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) HAS LEAD TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) HEATING CONTINUES AND
THE INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) BREAKS...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT...BUT
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) STRATOCU WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-4 KFT WILL PERSIST. A RETURN
TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AS THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION)
SETS UP...AGAIN TRAPPING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) UNDER A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. 34/JFB

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 030917
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
417 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) EXTENDING FROM A
CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL%20FLOW)
RETURNING IN BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TODAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLOUDY)
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL SETTLE DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD POSE ONLY MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH OF I-10 TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS LOW.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
FRIDAY STARTING WITH A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BOTH SWINGING SOUTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS SLOWER TO SWING THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) TOWARDS THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) THAN THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...HOLDING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING IT SOUTH...BUT FOR SATURDAY...POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE.

OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL DIFFERENCES...THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO HAVEN`T DEVIATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM TRYING
TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. IT`S NOT
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT IS MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE...IT PUSHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM SOUTH AND A BIT
EAST TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN. AS THIS UPPER LOW SWINGS EAST OVER THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) BORDER THROUGH
MID WEEK...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS GETS DRAWN NORTH...AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO SEASONAL BY THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
/22

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
MOVES SOUTHWEST. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY...THEN
TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL LAST INTO THE COMING...PROVIDING
THE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FUEL FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 67 88 69 88 / 20 05 10 10 30
PENSACOLA 86 70 88 71 87 / 20 10 10 10 20
DESTIN 85 73 86 76 85 / 20 05 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 85 63 88 63 89 / 20 05 10 10 20
WAYNESBORO 86 63 89 62 90 / 20 05 10 10 30
CAMDEN 84 62 90 62 91 / 20 05 05 10 20

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 040948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...INVERTED SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY. ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE)
WILL CREATE INCREASED CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE). HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE
MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

[SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY]...SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) THAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL MAINTAIN
A HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE WET ONE AS
THE UPPER IMPULSES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NATURALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CHANCE
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF I-10 TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK..WITH
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. A DRIER NORTHERLY WIND IN
THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL ALSO BRING CLEARER SKIES BACK TO THE
REGION. OVERALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE SHORT TERM. /22

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL LAST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL LAST INTO THE COMING WEEK...PROVIDING THE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FUEL FOR A
WET WEEKEND. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 87 68 86 70 / 40 20 60 30
PENSACOLA 85 72 85 72 / 50 20 60 30
DESTIN 83 75 85 75 / 20 20 60 20
EVERGREEN 87 64 87 66 / 20 10 60 20
WAYNESBORO 88 63 86 66 / 20 10 60 30
CAMDEN 88 64 88 66 / 20 10 50 20

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 050933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS POSITIONED FROM
NEAR COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO JUST SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AS OF
08Z...WITH THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) BEST DEFINED OVER THE MARINE WATERS. THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PRIMARILY THE MS COAST AND MARINE WATERS...
BUT SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE AL COAST AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) VERY WEAK...CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST SOUTH INTO TEXAS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS
FOR INITIATION GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND AS DAYTIME
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) INCREASES. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN AND PRECIP WATERS HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESPONDED
BY RISING TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES. THIS WILL MAKE ANY THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM)
ACTIVITY VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN
HOUR TIME IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE AFTERNOON WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK
IS MODERATE... PRIMARILY MEANING THAT WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS... BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUCH A MOIST ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC) PROFILE AND ANEMIC
WIND PROFILES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN CHECK WITH MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) LINGERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL) COOLING COMMENCES.
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) ALONG THE COAST TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL OF NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MARINE AREA MOVING
ONSHORE. LOWS A MILD 68-74. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RATHER WET START TO THE
WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INTO THE REGION. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) DISTURBANCES WILL CREATE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH SUCH A MOIST PROFILE...BUT HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) LIFTS OUT BY MIDWEEK
BUT A WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES AOA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AOA) 2
INCHES WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. PEAK HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO CREATE
THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS REMAIN MILD FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. 13/JC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)
CONDITIONS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) THAT MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE...SKIES LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO STAY IN THE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) RANGE OUTSIDE OF
THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER). THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AFTER 23Z AND SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER A TERMINAL
EARLIER IN THE DAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STRETCHED FROM NEAR DAUPHIN ISLAND TO JUST
SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE WILL KEEP A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) (10-15
KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT)) ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS TODAY. OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
SHOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE RIDGING
STRENGTHENING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE WATERS
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) GENERALLY 1-3 FEET. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 85 71 85 72 / 60 20 60 40
PENSACOLA 86 73 87 72 / 50 20 50 40
DESTIN 86 77 84 75 / 50 30 40 30
EVERGREEN 86 68 87 67 / 60 20 50 40
WAYNESBORO 85 68 86 66 / 60 30 60 30
CAMDEN 86 68 88 66 / 60 30 50 40

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 070948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) CLEARLY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
POISED TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STILL EXISTS
WITH THE KLIX SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE 2.27 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 00Z. GIVEN THIS...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. SOME
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL)
COOLING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) AND SOME SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
LOCATION OF PRECIP WILL AFFECT HOW HIGH TEMPS GET TODAY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. CLEARER SKIES IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF
THE PASSING TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...BUT ALSO GIVE WAY
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS)/FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG). LOWS IN THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC) PROFILES AND ANEMIC DEEP LAYER SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WILL ONCE
AGAIN PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE PRELIMINARY
WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS LOW. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...[TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF CANADA. AS THIS HAPPENS...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CAUSING PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES
TO FALL TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL DROP RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S AREAWIDE. /13

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MARINE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) IS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. 34/JFB


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) SHIELD MOVES THROUGH...THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH DAYBREAK. OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) AND
SATELLITE INDICATE THAT ONCE SKIES CLEAR...STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) BELOW 500 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) IS
QUICKLY SETTING IN ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. ASIDE FROM
THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS)...ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY (MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) IN THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) WITH GENERAL
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER).) MOST CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SHOULD DECREASE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AND STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND A LIGHT EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PERSISTS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 85 69 86 68 / 60 30 50 20
PENSACOLA 84 70 85 71 / 60 30 50 20
DESTIN 84 72 84 76 / 70 30 40 20
EVERGREEN 85 66 87 65 / 60 20 40 20
WAYNESBORO 85 66 87 65 / 50 20 40 20
CAMDEN 85 66 88 65 / 50 20 30 20

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 080952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE REGION STAYS ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) POSITIONED ALONG THE EAST
COAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER)...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM). THIS
PUTS A DENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS...DROPPING TO THEM AROUND 1.50
INCHES INLAND...STAYING AROUND 1.7-1.8 CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE HELPS TO KEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) HIGHER IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. THIS PATTERN OVERALL SHOULD HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...KEEPING IT ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGES IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. LESSER PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE
SUNSHINE HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

A QUIET NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) PERSISTS AND
NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL) COOLING QUICKLY DOES AWAY WITH ANY LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY). A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CALM)
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATIONAL%20COOLING) CONDITIONS SHOULD MATERIALIZE. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) POTENTIAL...LOW.

.LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...ONLY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES BELOW 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS INCREASE LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE
PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RETURNING A MUCH MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) SLIDE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD KEEPING GOOD CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE.
WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) PATCHES OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) AND
FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) TODAY MUCH
LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE REGION IS LOCATED ON THE
SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND
NEAR THE TERMINALS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A CB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CB) OR VCTS
MENTION AT ALL STIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BEGINS TO
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) STRENGTHENS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) BUILDING BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 89 68 90 69 / 30 10 20 10
PENSACOLA 88 71 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
DESTIN 86 73 85 77 / 20 20 20 10
EVERGREEN 89 65 90 64 / 20 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 88 64 89 65 / 20 10 20 10
CAMDEN 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 090848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS ON
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EAST COAST.
CLOSER TO THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)...FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH KLIX REPORTING A PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) OF 1.99 INCHES WHILE KVPS
REPORTED ONLY 1.25 INCHES. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) WILL BE
WEAKER. ONLY VERY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE). TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WHILE LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. /13

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER OHIO
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO FILL WITH THE
SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES LIKEWISE WEAKENING. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) ACTING TO INITIATE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS WHICH LINGERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...WET BULB ZERO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WET%20BULB%20ZERO)
VALUES GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 13 KFT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER SYSTEM/LOW WILL
HAVE MOVED OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND MEANDERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA MEANWHILE WITH
A COMBINATION OF A PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH MONDAY. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS BY DAYSHIFT REGARDING MODEL CONSISTENCY
DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL STAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS). WHILE THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AGREE REMARKABLY WELL ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THE GEM HANDLES THE UPPER LOW DIFFERENTLY...TAKING IT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A PLAUSIBLE
SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THIS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH
TUESDAY WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) THIS MORNING...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR ALL TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS RETURN. /13

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TODAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH UPPER 60S INLAND. WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 70 89 71 / 30 20 40 30
PENSACOLA 89 73 88 72 / 20 20 30 20
DESTIN 84 75 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
EVERGREEN 90 67 88 66 / 20 20 40 30
WAYNESBORO 87 65 88 66 / 30 20 40 30
CAMDEN 90 66 89 67 / 20 20 50 30

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 090848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS ON
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EAST COAST.
CLOSER TO THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)...FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH KLIX REPORTING A PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) OF 1.99 INCHES WHILE KVPS
REPORTED ONLY 1.25 INCHES. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) WILL BE
WEAKER. ONLY VERY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE). TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WHILE LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. /13

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER OHIO
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO FILL WITH THE
SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES LIKEWISE WEAKENING. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) ACTING TO INITIATE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS WHICH LINGERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...WET BULB ZERO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WET%20BULB%20ZERO)
VALUES GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 13 KFT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER SYSTEM/LOW WILL
HAVE MOVED OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND MEANDERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA MEANWHILE WITH
A COMBINATION OF A PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH MONDAY. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS BY DAYSHIFT REGARDING MODEL CONSISTENCY
DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL STAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS). WHILE THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AGREE REMARKABLY WELL ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THE GEM HANDLES THE UPPER LOW DIFFERENTLY...TAKING IT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A PLAUSIBLE
SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THIS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH
TUESDAY WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) THIS MORNING...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR ALL TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS RETURN. /13

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TODAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH UPPER 60S INLAND. WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. /29

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 100848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS IN
BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY WEATHER SYSTEMS A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
STATES AND A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FROM PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES OVER TWO
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST.
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL CREATE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) NUMBERS CAME IN MUCH WETTER THAN THE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) AND BELIEVE THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)
CONTINUES TO OVERDO PRECIP COVERAGE AS IT HAS DONE THE PAST FEW
DAYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) AND
TEMP NUMBERS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WHERE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL RESIDE. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING)
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE PRECIP
STARTS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR
OVER THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DURING THIS TRANSITION...A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON FRIDAY WHILE SEVERAL
OTHER SHORTWAVES PHASE TOGETHER TO FORM A STRONG SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING WEAKENS AS THE NORTHEAST STATES SYSTEM
MOVES OFF WHILE A SURFACE LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
RIVER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
WEDGE RESULTS IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION). GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
CONTINUES TO BUILD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE
GONE WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) STRATIFIED BY THE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) GENERALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
SABINE RIVER TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND GOOD CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST PROFILE BOTH DAYS...EVEN MORE SO ON SATURDAY
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...RISING TO 2.3 TO
2.4 INCHES. SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) REMAINS LIMITED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW
LEVEL SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAYTIME BY CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...AND ON THE MILD SIDE AT NIGHT. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS AMONG THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/GEM ON THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) PHASES WITH A LONGWAVE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
STATES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING EASTWARD AND
POSSIBLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GRANTED...THIS LATTER FEATURE IS SUSPECT
GIVEN THE WIDE DIFFERENCE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/GEM AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT THOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR SUNDAY
THEN TAPERING TO GOOD CHANCE FOR MONDAY THEN CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR
TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE START
OF THE FORECAST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS). MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTHEAST GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF
LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY THE WEEKEND OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. AS A RESULT A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
BY THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 71 86 72 / 60 40 50 40
PENSACOLA 88 73 87 73 / 40 30 50 40
DESTIN 86 76 87 74 / 40 30 40 40
EVERGREEN 87 68 87 68 / 50 40 50 30
WAYNESBORO 89 68 86 68 / 60 40 60 40
CAMDEN 89 69 87 68 / 50 40 50 30

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 110452
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) IN
PROB30 GROUP FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) 4
TO 5 MILES AND CIGS
050.

****************************PREVIOUS************** ***********

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SITUATION OVER THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND SURROUNDING AREAS...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SWIRL AROUND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE OTHER
SHORTWAVES WERE SWIRLING AROUND OVER THE GREAT BASIN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BASIN)...OVER SOUTHERN
TX....OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) THAT WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) HAS
BEEN REDUCED TO A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE WEST COAST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE TROPOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE)...THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) HAS
BEEN FULLY MOISTENED UP...WITH PRECIP H20 LEVELS RANGING FROM 2.3"
OVER THE TX COAST...TO 1.7" REPORTED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS ORGANIZED...STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTHERN TX...SOUTHERN OK AND AR TO CENTRAL MS. LOOKING AT THE
PRECIP BLOOMING ALONG A LINE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...ONE COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR IT STRETCHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL AL.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX)...NEAR
THE TX COAST FOR THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...EAST OF KBRO AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KLCH
FOR THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM). PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS STILL
TRYING TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BUT IS NO
LONGER SUCCEEDING...COMING MORE INLINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACK IN
THIS RESPECT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE WESTERN GULF LOW
MOVING NORTH FRIDAY...ORGANIZING A WEAK WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY. FOR THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER WESTERN
AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) AND POINTS WEST....DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAIN OCCURS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH...AND THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS A BIT DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND STRONGER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SATURDAY DAYTIME INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INCREASE PRECIP
H20 LEVELS OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NORTH TOWARDS AND OVER THE
FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)(SURFACE LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER TX TO OVER THE TX/OK STATE LINE)
...SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY SATURATED...LIMITING...BUT NOT ELIMINATING
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF)
WEST OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE PLAINS SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE PLAINS FOR
12 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS)...THEN MOVING EAST AS A BIT OF A PUSH IS RECEIVED FROM AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...WITH SOME DISORGANIZATION IN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AS IT TAKES
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TREK...SOME WEAKENING...BUT MAINTAIN TING A
CLOSED SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY EAST(ALSO BIT
SLOWER). THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ALSO ADVERTISING SOME OCCLUSION WITH THE
SYSTEM...WRAPPING DRIER AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LESSENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY(REALLY NOT SHOWN IN THE
MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)). ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS SHOWING ANY DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND...KEEPING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE NORTH OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES BY
VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO BRIEF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN AND AROUND
THE SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)...BUT OVERALL VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS) PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME ON
FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO AFTERNOON SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACTIVITY. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTHEAST GULF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE ALABAMA AND NW FLORIDA COASTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN SATES. AS A RESULT THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NORTH. THE
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
WILL BECOME LIGHTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) OVER THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA)...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEK...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES WILL
NOT BE A PROBLEM. BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) WINDS WILL BE GOVERNED BY A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FRIDAY...THEN MOVING
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES ONSHORE
SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BECOME PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. A
WET WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 70 87 71 85 73 / 30 40 40 80 60
PENSACOLA 72 88 73 84 75 / 20 30 50 90 60
DESTIN 77 86 78 84 79 / 20 30 50 90 60
EVERGREEN 67 87 69 84 71 / 30 40 40 70 50
WAYNESBORO 68 86 69 82 70 / 40 50 40 70 60
CAMDEN 67 87 69 84 70 / 30 50 30 60 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 120456
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 12/06Z...AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE RAIN OVER NORTHERN GULF DRIFTING NORTH AND WEST. HELO
CREWS FLYING TO AND FROM OFFSHORE PLATFORMS SHOULD EXPECT IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) OR
BELOW COVER GULF WATERS FOR IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) OR LOWER VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY)/CIGS THROUGH 13/00Z.
SIMILAR SITUATION INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH 13/00Z.
PERIODS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW AREAS MAINLY DUE TO RAIN. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING FIXED WING AND ROTARY WING AIRCRAFT HANDLING.

/77

*************************PREVIOUS***************** ***********

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL AROUND OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...WITH ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LOW MOVING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS....ANOTHER WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND A
BUNCH OF SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND OVER/NEAR TX. AN UPPER
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) HAS BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH PRESSURE
IS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE)...SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS
MORE OFFSHORE. THE CONSTANT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) HAS PUSHED 2" PRECIP
H20 AMOUNTS AS FAR NORTH AS I20 OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) LOOPS...A BAND OF RAIN
WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...AND STRETCHED
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WEST GULF
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH...WITH A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY OTHER THAN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRECIP MIXED IN NORTH OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). DID CUT BACK THE TS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TS) MENTION NORTH OF THE COAST...WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) UNTIL THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NEAR...THEN ONSHORE. SOME
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY SEE PROBLEMS WITH THE EXPECTED
WATER...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH PROBLEMS TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD)
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) AT THIS TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES IN THE 300K AND 305K LEVELS...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
INDICATE CONTINUED...STRONG OVER-RUNNING PRECIP. THE AMOUNTS RECEIVED
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT SPAWNED THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS)...THEN
STARTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) UNDER CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS MORE COMPACT WITH ITS RAIN SHIELD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAIN%20SHIELD) THAN THE COURSER
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...LEADING TO A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AM HAVING A HARD TIME
BUYING THIS.

DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAIN IS RECEIVED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH)
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) NEEDED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...JUST TOO MANY
IFS ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON) TAKEN FROM LAST SHIFT`S WRITE-UP.

THE UPPER LOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND GEM MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY TO GENERALLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN PANS OUT...BUT IF SO
THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIKEWISE DRIFTS EASTWARD KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND GEM...AM GOING TO GO WITH
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR MONDAY TAPERING TO GOOD CHANCE FOR TUESDAY. WILL STAY
WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OUT OF CONSIDERATION
FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED
SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN GULF SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND WEST. HELICOPTER OPERATIONS TO
OFFSHORE RIGS CAN EXPECT EXPECT IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS OVER GULF WATERS FOR
VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY)/CIGS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR LONGER. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) OF DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) MOVES
INLAND. SOME ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /11

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF HAS
MAINTAINED THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER SPEED IN AND NEAR A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST GRAZING THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE MARINE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE INTO
TONIGHT`S FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE THE WEEKEND
WINDS IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN. SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE JUST BELOW SCA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCA) LEVELS BUT NO DOUBT A FEW WAVES
ABOVE 7 FEET WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. .WEEKEND FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
WHAT THE LOW PRESSURE DOES BUT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A WET AND NASTY
DAY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MODERATE EAST WIND BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE DAY AND NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT ON SUNDAY BUT COULD
EASILY BE STRONGER GIVEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE AROUND
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
COMING WEEK. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
SEE RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 72 84 72 87 72 / 70 80 60 60 40
PENSACOLA 72 84 74 85 75 / 60 80 60 60 40
DESTIN 77 82 77 84 79 / 60 90 60 60 40
EVERGREEN 69 84 70 87 69 / 40 70 60 60 40
WAYNESBORO 68 83 69 86 70 / 40 70 60 70 50
CAMDEN 68 84 70 86 69 / 40 70 60 70 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/16

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 130520
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 12 2009

.AVIATION...[06Z ISSUANCE]...CIGS AND VSBYS VCNTY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VCNTY) OF WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL
VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWS PATCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH OCN
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING). THUS WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA).
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) OR EVEN VLIFR LEVELS IN +TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) SOME
LOCATIONS. STRONG CROSSWINDS PSBL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PSBL) IN AND NEAR TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AFFECTING FIXED
AND ROATARY WING A/C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) HANDLING. SOME RISES IN CIGS/VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) WILL OCCUR
FIRST OFFSHORE BEHIND WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).

/77

*********************PREVIOUS********************* *

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN BALDWIN AND SOUTHWEST
ESCAMBIA IN FLORIDA. COCORAHS DATA SHOWED ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTH BALDWIN WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS TO THE
NORTH BY 8 AM. RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
ZONE OF CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS/WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...HENCE EXPECT MOSTLY AN ISENTROPIC
SETUP WITH OVERRUNNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERRUNNING) LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AT TIMES INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT EXPECT RAIN TO BE HEAVY OR PROLONGED ENOUGH
FOR POSSIBLE FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING UNTIL MONDAY...STILL A BIT EARLY FOR A
MONDAY WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) GIVEN THE GUIDANCE. HPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC) GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN HEAVIER
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BULLS EYES
PASSING OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER WISE THE RIVERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) IN THE 90 PERCENTILE
AND THE RIVERS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ARE 50 OR LESS.
THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PIECE OF ENGERY ROTATING
OUT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR THE AREA AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND PULLS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.

TO SUM IT UP...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLOUDY)...WARM AND HUMID INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH OFF AND ON PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD.
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IMPROVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PEAKING ON MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAYBE EVEN SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
PASSES AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST...LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. /11

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM STALLS AND A TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEVELOPS BACK ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. EARLIER SHIFT HAD SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
BUT NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ROUGHLY UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. /11

&&

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...WITH WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NEAR THE AREA...CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL VARY WITH PREVAILING IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVELS RESPECTIVELY.
RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY MOVING IN OFF THE GULF SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHWRS/TSTMS. AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 12Z COULD SEE MORE ORGANIZED
COASTAL ACTIVITY WITH VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY)`S BEING REDUCED TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) LEVELS IN
+TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). STRONG CROSSWINDS IN AND NEAR TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). /10

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO EASE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY SUN
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA
ON MON THEN CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON TUE. THE MODERATE/STRONG
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING TODAY IS FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND BE A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER IN STRENGTH
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE. A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)/DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FAVORS THE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS. IN THE NEAR TERM...WE WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF WINDS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN SHWRS/TSTMS AS THESE HAVE PROVED EFFICIENT IN MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE...STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT AS AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER
PICTURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE. 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AT THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
MON. A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST BY TUE THROUGH
THU AS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MS...NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ALSO BUILD SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN HAS OR WILL AFFECT ALL THE FIRE ZONES BY
MONDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES FROM ALABAMA INTO MISSISSIPPI. NEEDLES TO
SAY...SURFACE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 60 PERCENT. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 71 82 73 86 / 60 70 50 70
PENSACOLA 72 84 74 86 / 60 60 40 60
DESTIN 72 84 74 86 / 60 50 30 60
EVERGREEN 67 83 68 86 / 70 60 50 60
WAYNESBORO 69 80 71 84 / 60 70 70 70
CAMDEN 68 85 69 85 / 70 60 50 60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lix/graphicast/image1.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 151013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEATHER PATTERN STILL RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW OVER ARK-LA-TEX TODAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) ALOFT...AND WITH A LOLVL FOCUS IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FROM A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW OVER LOUISIANA...EXPECT SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS TODAY VS YESTERDAY...SO THIS MAY ACT TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) COVERAGE TODAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY. MUCH OF THE COASTAL FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA
HAS RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY. RAINFREE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS ARE ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN HEAVY
RAINS...AND AS A RESULT STILL WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCHES
FOR OUR AREA. SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=URBAN%20AND%20SMALL%20STREAM%20F LOODING) WILL BE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MICROBURST) RISK IS MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...PESKY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND EASTERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER) AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH THIS...LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO HIGH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) THROUGH FRI WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE TIMING OF EACH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.
FOR WED LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...PREFERABLY THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...DEPICTS NEXT
WEAK IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW BY LATE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO BETTER LIFT OR FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS DEPICTED ALSO ON THU. WITH MOST OF THE OF PRECIP BEING
DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) DRIVEN DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BETTER RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)
TOTALS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SHIFTING WELL INLAND OR
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BY FRI LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MAIN UPPER LOW
TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
EACH IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) APPROACHING FROM THE SW THROUGH EARLY FRI AND MAIN
UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) SHIFTING NE DURING THE DAY ON FRI WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)/MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN THE EXTENDED PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD)
GRIDS AND ALLOW ONCOMING SHIFTS TWEAK WHEN NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PDS. /32

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS LOWERING TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) LEVELS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) TODAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) LEVELS DURING INSTANCES OF +RA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RA)
THROUGH THIS EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH LATE
WEEK...GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THE WEEKEND. WILL INITIALLY HIGHLIGHT
SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...
OTHERWISE NO CONCERNS. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 73 84 72 / 50 30 60 40
PENSACOLA 86 74 84 74 / 50 30 60 40
DESTIN 85 75 84 76 / 60 30 50 40
EVERGREEN 85 70 85 69 / 70 40 70 40
WAYNESBORO 86 71 84 69 / 60 40 60 40
CAMDEN 86 71 85 70 / 60 40 70 40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151614Z - 151815Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MS AND SOUTHERN AL/ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE. LIMITED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THE WARM/VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. 12Z OBSERVED
RAOBS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS ONLY REFLECT
MODEST LOW LEVEL SRH /UP TO 100 MS PER S2/ WITH RESPECT TO UPDRAFT
ROTATION. NONETHELESS...WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...THIS COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS FAVORED
ALONG A NW-SE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH A SUBTLE WARM/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
MODESTLY BACKED. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/15/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2017.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 151958
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.SHORT TERM [REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
ANALYSIS SHOWS A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM)/TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) TO OUR
WEST...OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. AROUND THIS LOW...A LARGE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE EXISTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT)=>2 TO 2.25". WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) DOES SHOW A REGION OF
DARKENING...SIGNIFYING DRIER AIR ALOFT...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN AN HOURS TIME AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING).
STORMS HAVE BEEN MAKING STEADY NORTHEAST PROGRESS AROUND 25 MPH.
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...CONSIDERING
THE STORM MOTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STORM%20MOTION) AND LATEST COVERAGES PER RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR)...THE THREAT OF FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH)
FLOODING IS MITIGATED OVER ANY ONE AREA.

EXPECT CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN OCCURRENCE WITH LOWER
COVERAGES HEADING INTO TONIGHT THEN COVERAGES INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THUS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS. COVERAGES
LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN W/BEST COVERAGES PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO OCCUR DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT IS REALIZED. BETTER RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...SHIFTING WELL INLAND OR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
TIMING OF EACH MID LEVEL IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE A SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EASING INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE). STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WITH CHANCES OF TSTMS
CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE). EXCEPT FOR SOME COSMETIC
CHANGES/BLENDING BETWEEN LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO LATEST TEMPERATURE GRIDS. 10/32

&&

.AVIATION [18Z FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
OCCASIONALLY FORMING SHORT LINES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) GENERALLY SHORT LIVED IN AND NEAR THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND LESS INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SPOTS OF DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
AROUND LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE...GENERALLY INLAND AREAS.
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) IN AND NEAR THESE. /11

&&

.MARINE...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING MARINE FORECAST. MOST
ALL THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY WIND OVER THE
MARINE AREA AND WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS
MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER WAVES AND STRONGER
WINDS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY FORMING
LINES THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SURFACE LOW WEAKENS
BY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA. /11

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 170938
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DIFFERENT DAY...SAME STORY. THIS
MORNINGS WEATHER MAPS INDICATE LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH A WARM
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OCCASIONAL UPPER SUPPORT OVER
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...TODAYS COVERAGE
OF STRONGER/HEAVIER CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL BE SPOTTY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN. HEAVIER RAINS YESTERDAY WERE
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN VCNTY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VCNTY) OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) SEE A REPEAT OF THIS TODAY. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ANYWHERE IN THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA. WILL
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) SEE LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE
FLOODING AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
WEAK VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) PROFILES THAT SHOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) THAT
AT TIMES MAY EXHIBIT WEAK ROTATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROTATION). HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES OR STRONGER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT...IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROBABILITY) FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) STRONGER STORM IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE. TEMP
FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY.
12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM...BY FRI MORNING BOTH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SHOW H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW OVER
NORTHERN LA LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING OR
WEAKENING WITH INVERTED SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS STILL REFLECTING FROM LA COAST
TO NORTHERN MS. SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FILL ALSO OVER THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE SAME DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) TREND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING INLAND OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS MOST OF THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AGAIN WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT RESULTING IN BETTER LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR AREAS DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.70 TO 2.1 INCHES
FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) WITH MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NEXT WEEK LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION IN RESPONSE TO BROAD RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES) DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF SE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND NORTHEAST GULF. LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS
ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WITH A
WEAKENING SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...STALLING NORTH OF THE COAST
THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER IN THE WEEK. TO THE WEST UPPER LOW LOOKS
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WITH A BROAD
INVERTED SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) REFLECTING OVER MUCH THE WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN
TX. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PROGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 00Z MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
/32

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) AND EVEN IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED OVERALL
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY (APPROACHING SCEC LEVELS AT
TIMES)...SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESULTANT
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PREVAILING WINDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PREVAILING%20WINDS) WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASE
EVEN FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. /32

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 182019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OVER LOUISIANA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL FINALLY KICKED
KICKED NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. /13

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) CUTTING OFF OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A BLOCKING RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LEAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES
COMING ACROSS IN THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) DAYTIME CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 1500 FEET. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) AND EVEN IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 18/24Z. OVERALL A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPING AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) FORMING. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z...BUT POSE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY). /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN LIFT TO THE
NORTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SETTING UP BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PERSISTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE 3
FOOT WAVES AT TIMES. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 73 85 74 87 / 30 60 20 40
PENSACOLA 74 86 74 85 / 30 60 30 40
DESTIN 75 85 75 85 / 30 50 30 40
EVERGREEN 70 86 70 86 / 40 70 40 60
WAYNESBORO 70 85 70 86 / 50 70 30 50
CAMDEN 70 86 70 86 / 40 70 40 60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 191848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 19 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE (18Z)...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS MAINLY AS PRECIPITATION. IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)
CONDITIONS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. A FEW PATCHES OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) IN RAIN AND FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) SUNDAY MORNING
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE IT FIRST AND
THICKEST.

**********************PREVIOUS******************88

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...SURFACE LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST
OVER LOUISIANA WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING ON THE WET SIDE OF THE
LOWS...EXPECT A DAY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO AT TIMES
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH FROM WILCOX
COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS TO GET RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INLAND AS THE MORNING HEATS UP. HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...ALSO THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT
THE HIGHER TOTALS TODAY. FFMP SHOWS THE MOST RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN CLARKE AND MOST OF WILCOX COUNTY AND THIS WOULD BE THE
REGION WHERE WE WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL PROBLEMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THESE AREAS. COUNTIES TO THE EAST HAVE
SHOWN VERY LITTLE RAIN OVERNIGHT (UP TO 3 AM). EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS THE LOWS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD...BUT
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWER/ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S MOST PLACES
TODAY...SOME WILL OCCUR BEFORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME AFTER.
/11

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK...SOME
DIFFERENCES ARISE ON THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL MASS FIELDS. THE
LATEST 19.00 GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE UKMET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UKMET)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/CANADIAN
AND 18.21 SREF SHOW BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE UPPER LOW
POSITIONS BEING MORE TO THE EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
19.00 GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) CONSIDERED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WILL
FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)/EVOLVING
UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN
WITH DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LOOKING TO HOLD. MEANWHILE...A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND WHEN THESE
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)/BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)...A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT AND
A WESTWARD MOVING...WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE GULF...WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MID/LATE WEEK. WILL
NOT GO HIGHER THAN 30-50% RANGES (TUESDAY AND BEYOND) THOUGH AS THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS COULD RESULT IN MORE MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) TO OUR EAST AND THE BETTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL BE PARAMOUNT ON WHERE THE
HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL SETS UP BY THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO DAILY HIGHS/LOWS. /10

&&

.AVIATION FOR 19/12Z...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MORE NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) INLAND
LATER IN THE DAY WITH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR SOME MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR)
CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION. IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND OCCUR WITH THE RAIN CORES ALTHOUGH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS MAY SURROUND
THE SHOWERS. A FEW PATCHES OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) IN FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE WILL AFFECT THE USUAL PLACES. /11

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE AREA THEN MOVING
NORTH AS IT WEAKENS...THE MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BUT
REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 TO 3
FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) HAZARDS WILL IMPACT AGENCIES DOING ANY OUTDOOR WORK/FIRE
PLANNING INITIATIVES. LOWEST HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) REMAINS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS WITH DAYTIME DISPERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DISPERSION) MOSTLY FAIR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FAIR). PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS AS DISPERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DISPERSION) BECOMES POOR. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 86 73 87 73 / 60 30 60 30
PENSACOLA 85 75 87 74 / 40 30 40 30
DESTIN 86 76 87 75 / 40 30 40 30
EVERGREEN 85 70 87 69 / 70 40 60 40
WAYNESBORO 86 70 87 70 / 60 30 60 40
CAMDEN 85 70 86 71 / 70 40 60 40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KMOB 202055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE. THE DEEP MOIST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH
PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 INLAND AREAS
AND FROM 72 TO 76 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE TRANSITION
PERIOD...AND END UP OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ON
TUESDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGE EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDDED
FORECASTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT NORTH AS
A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL
TUESDAY. WIND WILL BACK TO EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 FEET
UNTIL MID WEEK THEN GOING FOR 3 R (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=R) 4 FEET WITH THAT EASTERLY WAVE
STEEPENING THE P-GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT). SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA. /77

&&

.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS
WITH LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) MORE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) IN THUNDERSTORMS. IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES ALTHOUGH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CONDITIONS MAY SURROUND THE LIGHTER PRECIP AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF
IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) OR MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) IN MIST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MIST) MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AROUND DEPRESSIONS AND
NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. /77

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) HAZARDS WILL IMPACT
AGENCIES DOING ANY OUTDOOR WORK...FIRE PLANNING INITIATIVES. LOWEST
HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) REMAINS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH DAYTIME DISPERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DISPERSION)
BEING FAIR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FAIR) TO AVERAGE. PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS AS
DISPERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DISPERSION) BECOMES POOR. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 72 87 72 88 / 30 60 30 60
PENSACOLA 74 88 74 88 / 20 50 20 40
DESTIN 77 86 77 87 / 20 40 20 30
EVERGREEN 69 87 69 88 / 30 60 30 60
WAYNESBORO 71 87 70 88 / 40 60 40 60
CAMDEN 70 87 69 88 / 40 70 30 60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

SKYWARN Training from NWS Mobile / Pensacola
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/images/skywarnc_001.gif
If you are interested in becoming a severe storm spotter for the National Weather Service and want to receive SkyWarn training, contact your local county emergency management agency or contact our Warning Coordination Meteorologist via email at Jeff.Garmon@noaa.gov.





Scheduled SKYWARN training sessions from WFO Mobile




Thursday October 8, 2009 in Santa Rosa County Florida. Basic storm spotter training Class starting at 6 PM at the Santa Rosa County Emergency Operations Center in Milton, FL. For more information, contact Santa Rosa Emergency Management at 850-983-5360.



Thursday October 15, 2009 in Covington County Alabama. Basic storm spotter training class starting at 6 PM at the Andalusia Public Library. For more information, contact Covington County Emergency Management at 334-427-4911 or John Brown (Covington ARES Emergency Coordinator) at 251-510-1655.
[/URL]

Related Links

[URL="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/skywarn.shtml"]NWS Mobile / Pensacola SKYWARN Page (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/basicspot.pdf)

[ROLLTIDE]

WGUS54 KMOB 211511
FFWMOB
ALC097-211715-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.W.0053.090921T1511Z-090921T1715Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1008 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED VERY
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN NEAR THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF SARALAND AND NEAR PRICHARD OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY AFFECT THESE
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MOBILE COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHISTLER...
SARALAND...PRICHARD...MAGNOLIA GROVE GOLF COURSE...KUSHLA...I65 AND
US 45...I65 AND I165...I65 AND AL 158...FOREST HILL...EIGHT MILE
AND CHICKASAW

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3047 8832 3086 8816 3083 8801 3043 8816

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 211600 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) UPDATE...THE MORNING HAS STARTED OFF WITH A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY. WHILE HARD TO DISCERN ANY SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) ZONE THAT
HAS SETUP...WHICH IS ALIGNED WELL TO THE ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR).
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS...IN SOME CASES
PRODUCING RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WHICH HAS PROMPTED
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED WITH PRECIPTABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A 70 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT)
JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) OVER EAST CENTRAL TX NOSES INTO THE REGION...ENHANCING THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIVERGENCE) ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM)
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE SAME EXCESSIVE 3 TO 4 INCH
HOURLY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) RATES WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TRAINING OF STORMS IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) REGIME WILL
RESULT IN A THREAT FOR FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD)
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) AS IS SINCE IT IS PLACED IN AREA THAT HAS SEEN THE MOST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN ELSEWHERE AS THE ENTIRE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) HAS SEEN A
GOOD DEAL OF RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE
REQUIRED. /JFB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) WHICH WILL BRING CIGS/VSBYS TO THE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) RANGE AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WITH
A SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO BROKEN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CU (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CU) DECK ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) AND FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY. /JFB


/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST UPPER AIR MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEP SOUTH INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AS A TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OF LOW
PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WAS NOSING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INDICATES PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) ~2.1 INCHES IN
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE/RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS SHOWS THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS/BETTER ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGES OF TSTMS WERE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS MORE
DIFFLUENT AND LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. AS WE HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WE REMAIN ON THE FAVORED ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE)...EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL
STATES TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)...WHERE MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE IMPULSES INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND
DESTABILIZATION...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WE CARRY NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS=>LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
LOWER LYING AREAS AND ACROSS POORLY DRAINED URBAN AREAS IS QUITE
POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THOSE AREAS THAT MAY SEE
TRAINING OF TSTMS. FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) GUIDANCE SHOW SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ONLY NEED 2 TO 2.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 1 HOUR TIME TO
CREATE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS.

DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ALONG WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA OVER THE LAST SEVEN
DAYS. DUE TO THIS RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS HIGH AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING
OVER LOWER LYING ROADS AND ACROSS AREAS THAT NORMALLY HAVE PROBLEMS
WITH DRAINAGE OF STORM WATER DURING HEAVY RAIN EPISODES. FORECASTERS
FEEL THIS THREAT WILL BE ACROSS
CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON...CLARKE...WILCOX AND MONROE CO`S SO AS TO GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH). THIS WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 21.15Z TO 22.03Z. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS IS MINIMAL. LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES. /10

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 500 MILLIBAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MILLIBAR) HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NORMALLY THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
WOULD BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS EAST TO NORTHEAST AND QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUES UP OVER TWO INCHES. WE DO HAVE LOWER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND WITH STEERING
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS THE UPPER HIGH ARRIVES...COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) HEAVY RAIN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE UP BETWEEN 95 AND 100 FROM
LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE RAIN BRINGS A
BRIEF BREAK. A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER HIGH. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE DECAYING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /11

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) ZONE BY LATE WEEK...BRINGING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) JUST TO THE WEST. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
UPPER HIGH SLIPPING SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) KEEPING THE
DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ACROSS THE AREA. /11

&&

.MARINE......HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEK. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BECOMES MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) 2
FEET...POSSIBLY 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WHERE THE NORTHEAST FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH)
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MARINERS WILL HAVE TO PLAN FOR SHWRS/TSTMS.
/10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOT A LOT TO SAY HERE...HOT AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) IN THE LATE MORNINGS AND
AFTERNOONS. NO LOW HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) IN SIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY...OCCASIONALLY EAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 87 74 88 73 / 60 30 40 20
PENSACOLA 86 75 88 74 / 60 30 40 20
DESTIN 86 76 88 76 / 60 30 40 20
EVERGREEN 86 70 89 69 / 80 30 60 30
WAYNESBORO 88 69 90 69 / 80 30 40 30
CAMDEN 87 70 89 69 / 80 30 50 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MONROE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

US64 KMOB 220830
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
TWO LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) PRESSURE SYSTEMS...WITH
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A
LARGE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL U_S. PER 22.00 SOUNDINGS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS PLENTIFUL
WITH PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT)=> 2 TO 2.25". BETTER LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND AL/FL WATERS HAS RESULTED IN ISO/SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL)
SHWRS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF
THE GULF AND IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH
SUNRISE. WELL TO THE WEST...A WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS
W/PROLIFIC LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) WAS OBSERVED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO EAST TEXAS...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WAS
EASING SOUTHEAST.

AS WE HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE SAME STORY AS HAS
BEEN READ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AND MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF TSTMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN PLACE. THE STRONGER TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) CELLS WILL BE
QUITE EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH 23.00 FOR CHOCTAW AND WILCOX CO`S AS THESE
AREAS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS)/LIFT TODAY. SEE THE
LATEST WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR MORE SPECIFICS.

TO THE WEST...THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BEFORE
SLOWING/STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST GULF LATE TONIGHT AS IT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER A
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/NORTHERN GULF. THUS...POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TAPER OFF TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA
WITH BETTER LIFT FOR SHWRS/TSTMS BEING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. /10

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BY WEDNESDAY THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED NORTH AND BE OVER
ALABAMA. THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXPANDS INTO A HIGH CENTER AND REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TEMPERATURES WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CELSIUS) WHICH WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL BE HIGHER OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ON THE WETTER WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
HIGH AND A CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). BY THURSDAY WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MUCH LESS BUT WITH THE PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE SOME ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AROUND. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER 80 TO POSSIBLY A FEW LOW 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ALONG THE COAST. /11

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO GET
SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST....PULLING A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SLOWLY EAST. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) HANGING BACK TO THE WEST THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL NOT BRING MUCH
IF ANY COOLER OR DRIER AIR INITIALLY BUT WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BACK
UP AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT AREA WIDE. THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WITH THE
STRONGER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. /11

&&

.AVIATION...[12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE]...LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS SHOW SOME SHWRS
COMING NW OFF THE GULF COULD IMPACT MOB/BFM TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTRW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OTRW)...LOW STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) AND FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE REDUCTION TO
CIGS/VSBYS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS AND
VSBYS POSSIBILITY TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) LEVELS DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINS. /10

&&

.MARINE...AN ASSESSMENT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IS NEEDED IN WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTS IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. THE COMPONENT
TO THE WIND BECOMES MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH INTERACTS WITH A WESTWARD MOVING EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE GULF.
NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE EASTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EASTERLIES) AND THE LONGER FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) IT BRINGS. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) REMAINS ABOVE 50 PERCENT WITH
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) AT THIS TIME LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE AT
LEAST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 87 73 90 73 / 70 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 87 74 91 74 / 60 20 20 20
DESTIN 87 75 89 75 / 40 20 10 20
EVERGREEN 86 69 90 70 / 70 20 30 20
WAYNESBORO 87 70 88 67 / 70 40 40 10
CAMDEN 86 70 92 67 / 70 30 30 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHOCTAW...AND WILCOX.

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 220830
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
TWO LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) PRESSURE SYSTEMS...WITH
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A
LARGE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL U_S. PER 22.00 SOUNDINGS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS PLENTIFUL
WITH PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT)=> 2 TO 2.25". BETTER LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND AL/FL WATERS HAS RESULTED IN ISO/SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL)
SHWRS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF
THE GULF AND IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH
SUNRISE. WELL TO THE WEST...A WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS
W/PROLIFIC LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) WAS OBSERVED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO EAST TEXAS...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WAS
EASING SOUTHEAST.

AS WE HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE SAME STORY AS HAS
BEEN READ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AND MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF TSTMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN PLACE. THE STRONGER TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) CELLS WILL BE
QUITE EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH 23.00 FOR CHOCTAW AND WILCOX CO`S AS THESE
AREAS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS)/LIFT TODAY. SEE THE
LATEST WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR MORE SPECIFICS.

TO THE WEST...THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BEFORE
SLOWING/STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST GULF LATE TONIGHT AS IT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER A
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/NORTHERN GULF. THUS...POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TAPER OFF TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA
WITH BETTER LIFT FOR SHWRS/TSTMS BEING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. /10

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BY WEDNESDAY THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED NORTH AND BE OVER
ALABAMA. THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXPANDS INTO A HIGH CENTER AND REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) TEMPERATURES WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CELSIUS) WHICH WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL BE HIGHER OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ON THE WETTER WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
HIGH AND A CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). BY THURSDAY WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MUCH LESS BUT WITH THE PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE SOME ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AROUND. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER 80 TO POSSIBLY A FEW LOW 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ALONG THE COAST. /11

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO GET
SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST....PULLING A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SLOWLY EAST. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) HANGING BACK TO THE WEST THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL NOT BRING MUCH
IF ANY COOLER OR DRIER AIR INITIALLY BUT WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BACK
UP AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT AREA WIDE. THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WITH THE
STRONGER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. /11

&&

.AVIATION...[12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE]...LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS SHOW SOME SHWRS
COMING NW OFF THE GULF COULD IMPACT MOB/BFM TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTRW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OTRW)...LOW STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) AND FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE REDUCTION TO
CIGS/VSBYS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS AND
VSBYS POSSIBILITY TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) LEVELS DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINS. /10

&&

.MARINE...AN ASSESSMENT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IS NEEDED IN WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTS IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. THE COMPONENT
TO THE WIND BECOMES MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH INTERACTS WITH A WESTWARD MOVING EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE GULF.
NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE EASTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EASTERLIES) AND THE LONGER FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) IT BRINGS. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) REMAINS ABOVE 50 PERCENT WITH
SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) AT THIS TIME LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE AT
LEAST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 87 73 90 73 / 70 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 87 74 91 74 / 60 20 20 20
DESTIN 87 75 89 75 / 40 20 10 20
EVERGREEN 86 69 90 70 / 70 20 30 20
WAYNESBORO 87 70 88 67 / 70 40 40 10
CAMDEN 86 70 92 67 / 70 30 30 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHOCTAW...AND WILCOX.

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 231010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FEATURES OTHER THAN VERY WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG AND
NEAR THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AXIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE (LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)) WILL THEREFORE BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES. PERIODS OF
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE
(ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)). A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALL REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS POOLED ALONG THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AXIS...AND BREAKS OCCUR IN THE
CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) CANOPY. NO DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM 87 TO 90 DEGREES
(OR ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL))...AND LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 70 DEGREES NORTH OF I-10 TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS (OR ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)). /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK...LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) OVER THE CENTRAL
U_S THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OPENING UP AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY ON WILL MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF THRU FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACTS TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ISO/SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) AREAL COVERAGES OF
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DOWN A CATEGORY IN SOME LOCALES THAN WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) (1.75 TO 2 INCHES) AND SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS...POCKETS OF +RA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RA) REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
LOOK TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
FLATTENS OVER THE GULF AND HIGH LEVEL W/SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES MORE ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE)
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) SHOWS PROGRESSION INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SIGNALS AND SUPPORTS A DOWNWARD
TREND IN POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP)...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...DAYTIME HIGHS BY TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S ALONG W/LOWER HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY). ALTHOUGH MINS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN AS WELL...THE COOLEST MINS WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH CLIMATOLOGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMATOLOGY) LOOK TO OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE). JUST IN
TIME AS WE NEAR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

A WORD ON THE RIVERS. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES THAT HAVE FALLEN OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE PAST SEVEN
DAYS...THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND STAGE ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA RESPONDS BY RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) STAGE. AT COFFEEVILLE
DAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DAM)...UNIT HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THE RIVER REACHING FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) STAGE LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...CRESTING TO NEAR 34 FEET BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN HOLDING STEADY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND.
FURTHER SOUTH AT LEROY...WHICH IS AT ACTION STAGE LEVELS...IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO MINOR FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MINOR%20FLOODING) LATE THU MORNING...CRESTING TO
NEAR 27 FEET BY LATE SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). TO FOLLOW THE VERY LATEST TRENDS IN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
AND STAGES ON THESE FORECAST POINTS ALONG W/SEVERAL OTHERS...SEE THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) WEB PAGE =>

HTTP://AHPS.SRH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRH).NOAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOAA).GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WFO)=MOB

/10

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO OCCASIONALLY
IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
KMOB/KBFM TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES. KPNS WILL HAVE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS TO START. LOW
CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z FOR ALL SITES...WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING)
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KMOB/KBFM SITES DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) JUST
WEST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...BUT NO DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS FORECAST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL REMAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DAYTIME HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL TREND LOWER BY
THURSDAY...LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) WILL POSE A THREAT TO FIRE AGENCIES WHO WILL BE
CONDUCTING ANY CONTROL BURN/PLANNING INITIATIVES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 88 71 89 72 / 50 20 30 20
PENSACOLA 90 74 89 74 / 20 20 20 20
DESTIN 88 77 88 75 / 20 10 20 20
EVERGREEN 89 70 89 68 / 40 20 30 20
WAYNESBORO 87 70 90 70 / 70 20 30 30
CAMDEN 88 70 91 69 / 50 20 30 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22_JFP/10_GJM

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 251137 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 AM FRI SEP 25 2009

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR OR IN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) OR TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WITH
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) TO AROUND 3 OR 4 MILES...THROUGH 12Z FRI. REMAINDER OF
PERIOD VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND. /77

**************************PREVIOUS**************** **********

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) CONTINUES
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO GET ABSORBED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL%20FLOW) AND PARTIALLY DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL ALSO DAMPEN OUT ACCORDINGLY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)
RATHER FLAT WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING EXCEPT NEAR THE BEACH WHERE
THE MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) PROCESS OF THE SEABREEZE TAKES OVER. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS). /77

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THERE REMAINS A GOOD
CONSENSUS WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) MODELS ON OPENING UP THE LARGE
UPPER LOW AS IT EXITS THE PLAINS...AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS SWEEPING TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
ACROSS THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) AND JUST HUGGING THE COASTLINE SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) BY NOON
BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
THE WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ON SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)/SUN/MON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES...AND LOWS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10 TO THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. A MUCH STRONGER SECONDARY
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WITH EVEN DRIER AIR AND DAILY
LOWS/HIGHS LOWERING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /22

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING EAST WINDS WHICH WILL VEER SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST AND WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WIND WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AND INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. /77

&&

.AVIATION [06Z ISSUANCE]...GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR OR IN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) OR TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WITH
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) TO AROUND 3 OR 4 MILES...THROUGH 12Z FRI. REMAINDER OF
PERIOD VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 87 70 86 69 / 40 40 70 30
PENSACOLA 89 74 87 72 / 30 30 60 40
DESTIN 87 76 87 75 / 30 30 40 40
EVERGREEN 89 68 88 67 / 50 40 70 30
WAYNESBORO 86 67 86 66 / 60 40 80 20
CAMDEN 88 68 86 66 / 50 40 80 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

SKYWARN Training from NWS Mobile / Pensacola
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/images/skywarnc_001.gif
If you are interested in becoming a severe storm spotter for the National Weather Service and want to receive SkyWarn training, contact your local county emergency management agency or contact our Warning Coordination Meteorologist via email at Jeff.Garmon@noaa.gov.





Scheduled SKYWARN training sessions from WFO Mobile




Thursday October 8, 2009 in Santa Rosa County Florida. Basic storm spotter training Class starting at 6 PM at the Santa Rosa County Emergency Operations Center in Milton, FL. For more information, contact Santa Rosa Emergency Management at 850-983-5360.



Thursday October 15, 2009 in Covington County Alabama. Basic storm spotter training class starting at 6 PM at the Andalusia Public Library. For more information, contact Covington County Emergency Management at 334-427-4911 or John Brown (Covington ARES Emergency Coordinator) at 251-510-1655.
[/URL]

Related Links

[URL="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/skywarn.shtml"]NWS Mobile / Pensacola SKYWARN Page (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/basicspot.pdf)

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 281606
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED THE CURRENT PACKAGE TO REFLECT CURRENT TREND
OF CLOUD BAD ASSOCIATED WITH COMING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM).

16

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)WILD CARD IN FORECAST IS TIMING BAND OF
LOW CIGS MOVING SOUTH WITH COMING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 301020
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT EAST TO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT WEAK SHORT WAVE MOSTLY NOTED BY
IR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IR)/WV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WV) LOOPS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER GULF AND SE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AND MUCH COOLER AIR STILL MOVING
SW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR TEMPS TODAY. CURRENT THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS REASONING...ALSO. WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE CURRENT 00Z MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT. /32

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY IN
ORDER FOR THURSDAY BUT HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW AN
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES SOME THURSDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH THE BOUNDARY NOW PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO BE WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EVEN BY 12Z FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY HAVE SMALL
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNING
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TO AROUND 60 IN THE
EAST. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE FAR EAST...DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG WINDS STAY LIGHT OR CALM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CALM) BEFORE THE RIDGING GIVES WAY COMPLETELY.

THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MARCHES FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TIMING IN BOTH THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH THE BOUNDARY ONLY ENTERING THE SE
MISSISSIPPI ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOME DOUBT AS
TO HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN CHANCES WILL MAKE IT AND HAVE BACKED OFF OF
THE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED EAST OF I-65. LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) STILL
LOOK GOOD WEST OF I-65 AS A 100+ KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) JET STREAK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET%20STREAK) WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON... ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) DIVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIVERGENCE).
PRECIPTABLE WATERS ALSO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AS 35-45 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) INTERACT WITH MLCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)...PARTICULARLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR STRONG CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING A LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20GUST)...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WITH MID 50S CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED FOR LOWS IN THE WEST WITH MID 60S IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS HAVE INDICATED A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A VERY NICE...DRY...AND
COOL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA...THE WELL RESPECTED ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAS JUMPED
SHIP AND STALLS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) JUST OFF THE COAST. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH ENHANCES SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) JUST ABOVE THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)...AND
RESULTS IN AN OVERRUNNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERRUNNING) PRECIP EVENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCES ORIGINATE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) OVER THE MIDWEST. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND CANADIAN
ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PHASES WITH THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
PHASED AND DOES NOT GIVE THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THE EXTRA `PUSH` TO CLEAR THE
REGION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN OF THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) THAT HAS SHOWN SUCH A
SOLUTION AND IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS
TYPICALLY THE BEST PERFORMER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) AND FIRST TO CATCH
ON TO A NEW SOLUTION. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW SOLUTION...HAVE NOT
DEVIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE CAUTIONED
THAT WHILE THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY DRY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN DIMINISHED. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO). LOW TEMPS MORE TRICKY AND WILL STAY BELOW
CLIMO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMO)...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) GUIDANCE.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE
MIDWEST. A RETURN TO CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE). 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THEN DECREASING 5 TO
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /32

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING
WAY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BUILD THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST THEN NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOSTLY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LOW DEWPOINTS WILL MIX
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DETERMINE RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE FL PANHANDLE. CURRENT FORECAST OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS 80
DEGREES INDICATES THAT RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) DROP TO AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT (4 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS) OR LONGER) TO WARRANT A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING).
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH). IT IS A BORDERLINE
SITUATION WHERE A DEGREE OR TWO ON TEMP AND/OR DEWP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEWP) WILL MAKE A
DIFFERENCE...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) AT
THIS TIME. HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). RAIN CHANCES ALSO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES INTO THE REGION. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 81 55 83 66 / 00 00 00 10
PENSACOLA 80 58 82 69 / 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 80 62 81 69 / 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 78 50 82 61 / 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 80 49 83 65 / 00 00 00 30
CAMDEN 78 50 83 62 / 00 00 00 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 011011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) .A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OF LOW PRESSURE AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH BY TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) DEPICT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 00Z MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY COOLER SPOTS THAT DO OCCUR FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) WHERE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) DEVELOP FIRST. /32

(FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO PULL
EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL BE
CROSSING THE MS RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIPTABLE WATERS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) DIVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIVERGENCE) WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A 100+ KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT)
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) DOES INCREASE TO 35-40 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DOES
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH 850MB ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT). IN
ADDITION...THE BEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH THE LINGERING SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) TO THE EAST LIMITING
ANY PROLONGED MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN...THUS INHIBITING HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO WEAK...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0-6 C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C)/KM. SO WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS GIVEN
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET)...WE ARE
STILL NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MAKES ITS SLOW TREK THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MAKES
IT. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...AND
THIS AIRMASS CHANGE IS MOST LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
SE MISSISSIPPI TO MID 60S ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) SO MUCH FOR A COMPLETELY
SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND. LAST NIGHT`S ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) BEGAN TO HINT AT THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
STALLING ALONG THE COAST WITH AN OVERRUNNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERRUNNING) RAIN EVENT POTENTIALLY
TAKING SHAPE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WELL...THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) CONTINUES TO
SHOW THIS SCENARIO (PAST 3 RUNS) AND THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS TRENDED IN THIS
DIRECTION WITH EACH RUN OF THE MODEL. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MUCH OF THE REGION. IF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
HANGS UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THEN SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW...WILL HEDGE IN THIS
DIRECTION...KEEPING LOW END CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THE COASTAL ZONES. INLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK DRY FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES
MAKING FOR A NICE DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES LINGER CLOSE TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) DISTURBANCES OFF THE WEST
COAST...QUICKLY MOVING EAST IN SEMI-ZONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL%20FLOW). THIS IN TURN ENHANCES
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE 300-310 K (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=K) RANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). HAVE
RAMPED UP POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW (UP FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST). IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO...THEN POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) MAKE VERY WELL BE RAISED TO THE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) RANGE IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE KEPT IN CHECK DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/RAIN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.

A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) LEVELS...AND DAILY
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) RIDGING
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ARE MUCH DIFFERENT AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANOTHER
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) 24-36 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF). FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)
TEMPERATURES. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES
LATE...MOSTLY WEST AND NORTH OF KMOB. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. /32

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVING WAY
TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY. AS THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES...COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE. DAYTIME HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) MODERATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DAILY DISPERSIONS BEING GENERALLY AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 82 65 80 61 / 00 10 60 30
PENSACOLA 81 66 81 65 / 00 10 50 40
DESTIN 81 68 79 69 / 00 05 40 50
EVERGREEN 82 58 78 59 / 00 10 60 30
WAYNESBORO 83 61 77 56 / 00 30 60 10
CAMDEN 82 59 77 57 / 00 20 60 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 040906
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA AS OVERRUNNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERRUNNING) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER A STALLED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NEAR THE COAST BRINGS
INCREASING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING
TREND IN COVERAGE FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LIFTING NORTHWARD BUT
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) NEAR 2.5 INCHES AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE AREA...CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ARE
SUPPORTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A GOOD PORTION OF TIME WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) BUT
EXPECT QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS A SUFFICIENT LENGTH OF TIME TO
ALLOW FOR RUNOFF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RUNOFF) TO STAY AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) RATES...ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LIKEWISE...AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A SATURATED PROFILE AND LIMITED
CAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE). TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. /29


FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) PROVIDING THE UPWARD DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS)/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS MOVED TO OVER AL/MS. THE BEST UPGLIDE HAS
MOVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH ENOUGH DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) REMAIN TO
CONTINUE THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A LESSENING MONDAY AFTERNOON ...THOUGH THE UPGLIDE RE-INSTATES
ITSELF OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE PRECIP
CONTINUES. NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS STRONGER WITH THE UPGLIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THE RESULT MONDAY NIGHT THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)....BUT FOR TUESDAY...A
SECOND SHOT OF UPGLIDE CREATES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPGLIDE ENHANCEMENT IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST...BUT A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MOVING OVER THE ARKLATEX BEGINNING 00Z/WED WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) IN THE EXTENDED.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE BLENDED THE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AS A START...THEN TWEAKED
FROM THERE TO HANDLE THE WEAKENING UPGLIDE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE GOVERNED BY THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH A TIGHTER DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL)
CURVE WORKED IN WITH THE HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE FIRST
ROUND OF UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) PUSHING A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE ARKLATEX TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH VARYING RESULTANT POSITIONS BY OOZ/THUR AS
THE THE UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) MOVE EAST AND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS
ADVERTISING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THIS
TIME...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ADVERTISING A MORE INLAND
POSITION...ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) MOVING OVER THE US ROCKIES BY THURSDAY MORN...THOUGH
HAS PUSHED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY TO THE
EAST COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THURS OVER THE
FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). THIS UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) ORGANIZE ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE
PLAINS TO NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) BY FRIDAY MORN. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IN PUSHING THE UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) EAST AND
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTHEAST. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS
ADVERTISING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WELL TO THE NORTHERS...JUST STARTING ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER AT THE SAME TIME....AND ACROSS THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) ABOUT 12 HOURS
BEHIND THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS).

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CEILINGS DURING THE DAY THEN LOWER TO NEAR IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE PREVAILING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPO/PROB GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE STALLED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NEAR THE COAST MOVES INLAND AS A WARM
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DIFFICULT CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) BUILD TO 4 TO 6
FEET BUT HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
NOW. A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COASTLINE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) TO THE WEST AND DECREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) SUBSIDING. THE SURFACE LOW LEAVES ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
STALLED NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
RETURNS INLAND BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RAIN OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...STARTING BY THEN END OF THE DAY FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) WIDE...AND
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL EASE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
RETURNING THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 77 71 82 69 84 / 100 90 60 20 50
PENSACOLA 79 72 83 72 85 / 80 90 70 30 50
DESTIN 80 74 83 76 84 / 70 90 70 30 50
EVERGREEN 73 67 75 63 80 / 90 100 60 20 40
WAYNESBORO 72 63 78 59 79 / 100 90 30 20 50
CAMDEN 72 63 74 59 77 / 100 100 50 20 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

29/16

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050909
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR LCH TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOCATED NEAR MEI. THE
SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES EAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TO NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPSTREAM)
WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZONAL%20FLOW) ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGH
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TODAY...WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. SMALL
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN GENERALLY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAINLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAJOR%20FLOODING) PROBLEMS. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BUT SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MODERATED BY CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). /29

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY MORNING...LATEST GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS WEAKENED...BUT A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
IS STARTING TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH A TUESDAY SUNRISE POSITION OVER
OK/N-RN TX TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY. AS
THE DRIVING UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS)...OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...FOR THIS
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) SWING EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...STALLS WHILE THE NORTHERN END
PUSHES SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A WSW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WSW) TO ENE POSITION STRETCHING FROM SE
TX TO NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THE LOSS OF THE GOOD UPGLIDE TUESDAY...DROPS THE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR
TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME DISCREPANCY HAS ARISEN WITH TEMPS. THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)
KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA OVERCAST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERCAST)...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LOWER TEMPS
OVER MOST OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS...WHILE
SOME CLEARING SOME ALONG THE COAST HAS LEFT THE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV). FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE BUMPED THE WARMER TEMPS(EITHER MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) OR
MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET)) DOWN A BIT...WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER KEEPING THE DAYTIME
HEATING DOWN. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO
HAVEN`T TWEAKED. WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING...HAVE WENT WITH
INCREASING POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PUSHING TO NEAR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
GETS PUSHED TO THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...THEN OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LOW WHICH
HAS PUSHED TO OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURS MORN IS DOING THE
PUSHING. THIS LOW IS ALSO ORGANIZING ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST...THE SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) GETS PUSHED
WITH...APPROACHING THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. MOST GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVE OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...EXCEPT
FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN
A BIT...RESULTING A WARMER DAY SATURDAY...HIGHER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) IS ADVERTISING. WHAT GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING IS THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN A SECONDARY SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) PUSHING THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WELL
SOUTH OF THE COAST EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA).

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)LOWER CEILINGS FOLLOW DURING THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA THEN INTO THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). WILL HAVE
VISIBILITIES LOWERING LATE TONIGHT AS CEILINGS DROP RESULTING IN
NEAR LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND STALLS NEAR THE
COAST TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) RETURNS NORTH AND
DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PREVAILING AS A
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURNS NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS YET ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
ACROSS THE PLAINS. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MORE RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME RELIEF TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TRANSITIONING FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...THEN A LIGHT NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES OVER THE AREA...THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT...WITH FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...REMAINING SO
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO APPRECIABLE DROP IN MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 80 70 87 72 86 / 70 20 30 20 40
PENSACOLA 84 71 87 75 87 / 80 20 30 20 40
DESTIN 82 73 83 78 86 / 80 20 30 20 30
EVERGREEN 80 64 84 71 84 / 70 20 30 30 50
WAYNESBORO 79 63 86 68 81 / 40 10 40 40 50
CAMDEN 78 61 83 67 81 / 60 20 30 40 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

29/16

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 060855
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA RADARS
AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOW THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WITH PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)...A FEW LOCATIONS DENSE...OVER THE
LAND AREA. THE PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY AS A PLAINS SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO NEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TODAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THEN CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT FOR LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) THEN CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). WARM TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH DAYTIME SURFACE BASED CAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE) INCREASING TO AROUND 1500
J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THAT PREVAILS LATER IN
THE DAY KEEPS SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) VALUES LOW...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES REMAINING
BELOW 100 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) BUT SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO 100-150 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) AS
THE 850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) DECREASES
MEANWHILE WITH NOCTURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NOCTURNAL) COOLING. WITH THE SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) AND INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)
OUT OF PHASE AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LATE TONIGHT. /29

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS BEING ADVERTISED BY
THE GUIDANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA...STALLING ALONG THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS ITS DRIVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)
CONTINUES TO SWING EAST. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
NUMBERS OVER MOST OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)...SO HAVEN`T DEVIATED MOST OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS ADVERTISING HIGH
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...AND A BIT LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH PRECIP H20 LEVELS. HAVE
WENT WITH A BLEND THESE AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER
THE PLAINS AND ORGANIZING A SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO PUSHES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY EAST...TO OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...AND SWITCHING LOW LEVEL
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BACK TO ONSHORE. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH PUSHES TO THE COAST LEAVES THE
DRIER PART OF THE AIRMASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
KEEPING PRECIP H20 LEVELS HIGH INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
SW-ERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) PUSHING EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
WEAKENING AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) START PUSHING AGAINST UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MAINTAINS A BIT STRONGER
UPPER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) INTO SATURDAY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ADVERTISING THE PLAINS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILST THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HOLDING OFF WITH THE FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA) TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EXTRA JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET)
DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) PASSING CLOSER TO NORTHWEST REGIONS OF THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER STORMS. FOR
SATURDAY`S FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA)...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) A
BIT...RESULTING IN TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STALLS CLOSER TO THE COAST
SUNDAY...BUT AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK...A SECONDARY SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) PUSHES THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WELL SOUTH OF THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE TO VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING THEN LOW
CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) BUT OTHERWISE VCTS/VCSH SHOULD
SUFFICE. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) RETURNS
INLAND THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) GRADUALLY VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) TO
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA THEN RETURNS INLAND
ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) RESUMING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS MEANWHILE AND MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE MARINE AREA
SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PRECEDE A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY. WITH LACK OF A REAL PUSH WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...SOME DRIER
AIR MAY MAKE PUSH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HUMID.

THE TEMPORARY SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20DIRECTION) WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL WILL REVERSE ITSELF......WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMING ONSHORE BY
THE END OF THURSDAY...REMAINING SO INTO SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 87 74 86 67 87 / 40 20 40 20 20
PENSACOLA 87 74 88 70 84 / 30 20 40 20 20
DESTIN 85 77 85 74 83 / 30 20 40 20 20
EVERGREEN 85 71 84 60 85 / 40 30 50 10 20
WAYNESBORO 86 69 80 58 85 / 40 40 30 20 30
CAMDEN 85 69 82 57 84 / 30 30 40 10 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

29/16

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 071733 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 07/18Z...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY
NORTH OF U.S. 84 WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS WITH C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C)/V`S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PATCHES OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY) LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY PROBLEMS WITH C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C)/V ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE. CLOSER TO THE COAST EXPECT MOSTLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) AFTER MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BREAK. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 84 72 89 74 88 / 40 20 30 20 40
PENSACOLA 87 73 87 75 87 / 40 20 30 20 40
DESTIN 85 75 85 79 86 / 40 20 20 10 30
EVERGREEN 84 67 89 70 89 / 50 20 30 20 40
WAYNESBORO 80 69 89 70 89 / 50 20 40 20 50
CAMDEN 80 67 89 69 88 / 50 20 40 20 40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT MOBILE TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 89 SET IN 1991.

[Alex]

Statement as of 05:37 PM CDT on October 12, 2009

... Record high temperature set at Mobile...

a record high temperature of 89 degrees was set at Mobile today.
This ties the old record of 89 set in 1991.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 150904
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE EAST TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS IN EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES
ALONG THE LINE. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES AND USHERING IN THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. /13


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BY SUNRISE FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE BEACHES AND ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO END BY NOON WITH SKIES CLEARING AS
COOLER AIR IS FINALLY MAKES AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS 40 TO 50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH RESPECTIVELY AND WITH A
NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW
WEEKS. SOME STRATO CUMULUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUMULUS) EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW OVER
VIRGINIA WILL EASE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY KEEPING SATURDAY HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH THE NORTHERLY WIND STILL A BIT ON THE BRISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BRISK)
SIDE. /11

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30 TO MID 40S NORTH TO
SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE OZARKS SUNDAY
MORNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) OUT OF THE PICTURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) PULLS AWAY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) APPROACH THE AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS PULLED BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO PUT LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BACK
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. /11

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCES)...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH GENERAL MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS FOR THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
SUDDEN DROPS TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VCNTY) OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL APPROACH THE MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSH WELL
SOUTH INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE NECESSARY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FIRE FORECAST AREA AGAIN...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
MORE NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). NORTHERLY WINDS AND
COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FROM STONE TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. NOT QUITE AS LOW INLAND DUE TO LOWER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AND LESS
WIND...HENCE LESS LOW LEVEL MIXING. A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SURFACE HUMIDITIES APPROACHING 30 PERCENT. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 85 64 74 46 / 50 70 20 00
PENSACOLA 85 66 76 47 / 50 60 30 00
DESTIN 83 68 77 52 / 50 70 30 00
EVERGREEN 82 60 71 43 / 70 70 10 00
WAYNESBORO 80 56 69 40 / 70 70 05 05
CAMDEN 81 55 69 42 / 70 70 05 05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 161622 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1122 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

.MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) UPDATE...FALL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) OCCURRING RIGHT NOW IN
THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) BLANKETING ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AS
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) LOCATED
AROUND 900 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) PER JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS. WHILE SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
WILL MIX DOWN (ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ALONG THE
COAST)...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS UPSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPSTREAM) TO CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLOUDY) SKIES. TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION). THROUGH 15Z...TEMPERATURES WERE
ACTUALLY CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL...HOWEVER TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO
LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
IN THE STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS). THINK THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAA) AND REMAINING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
THEREFORE...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD...SHOWING LOW 60S IN
THE VERY FAR NORTHERN CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH 20 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) OF WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MIXED%20LAYER). EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH...MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COOLER. ALSO REMOVED ALL MENTION OF POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
NOW SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND MOBILE BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 182043
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) THE MID LEVEL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER ALABAMA TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
AXIS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER
INLAND AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES POINT TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADIATIONAL%20COOLING) CONDITIONS. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS AS
IT HAS HANDLED THIS COLD SNAP VERY WELL. LOWS MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S INLAND...SOME FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ON THE
OCTOBER PUMPKINS IS LOOKING LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY). WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY
NORTH OF I-10 AND HAVE AREAS OF FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS. IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO PROTECT ANY TENDER
VEGETATION TONIGHT.

THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO GEORGIA DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. 1000-850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30 METERS TOMORROW...WHICH
TYPICALLY WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS. HOWEVER...
THE COLD START TO THE MORNING WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) CURB THAT INCREASE BY A
FEW DEGREES AND LOOKING FOR MOST PLACES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS. STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
HIGH REMAINS LOCATED OVER GEORGIA...RESULTING IN PRETTY GOOD COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
WILL GO WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
MODERATE...RETURNING TO NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) BY TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) AND FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON THURSDAY AS PRECIP WATERS RISE TO OVER 1.75 INCHES IN AN
INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). WHILE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AMONGST THE VARYING
GUIDANCE...THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE THING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK IS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF POWERFUL HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) RICK IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IN PARTICULAR...IS SHOWING RICK
RECURVING INTO THE BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST...AHEAD OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)...WITH ITS REMNANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) THEN BECOMING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS OUT OF
THIS SYSTEM. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES (NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)) AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION [18/00Z ISSUANCE]...CIGS AND VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) OK UNDER VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS
NEXT 24HRS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EASES EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH IN THE NEAR TERM WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
/10

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH DRAWS CLOSER THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) CAUTIONS FOR
AREA BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT)
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAUTICAL%20MILES) OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
THROUGH MID WEEK. RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEXT COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY
AS NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS...HIGH DISPERSIONS...
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RESULTED IN RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) LEVELS
LOOK TO DROP TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND COULD BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION TO WARRANT RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) CONDITIONS. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF THE 4 HOUR DURATION OF LOW RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) WILL BE MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET)...WILL
KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) AS IS. HIGHER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LEVELS...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALL RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.CLIMATE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMATE)...

RECORD LOWS FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 19TH...

MOBILE: 38 SET IN 1989
PENSACOLA: 40 SET IN 1948

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 39 69 44 75 / 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 43 69 49 76 / 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 48 67 54 74 / 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 34 68 36 75 / 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 34 68 37 76 / 00 00 00 00
CAMDEN 34 68 37 75 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

.....

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 201001
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAP) SHOWS HIGH PRES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES)
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALOFT..UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
WED. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CAN BE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...AXIS OF MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...VERY LARGE 1024 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)/SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NAVARRE BEACH FL TO BUTLER AL. A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE
KEEPING THE AREA RAIN FREE. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH NEAR
80 DEGREES...OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL).

[THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)/NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BAND OF NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR AHEAD THE
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE
SLOW NATURE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COOL
DRY WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY RETURN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA GEORGIA COAST
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE
MARINE AREA THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL
DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINA AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
GIVING WAY TO A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
DEVELOPING MOSTLY LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
/32

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BECOME MOSTLY EAST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. /32

&&

.FIRE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) MODERATING FURTHER BY WEDNESDAY. A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 74 53 80 64 / 00 05 20 20
PENSACOLA 73 56 79 66 / 00 05 10 20
DESTIN 72 59 79 67 / 00 10 05 10
EVERGREEN 73 42 80 56 / 00 05 05 10
WAYNESBORO 74 44 79 60 / 00 00 10 20
CAMDEN 72 44 80 56 / 00 00 05 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 211811 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
110 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009



.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS) ACROSS
THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR). /13


&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM DESTIN TO
PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PENSACOLA FL
TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA
FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 230031 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
730 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE HWO AND GRAPHICAL HWO TO BRING IT MORE IN LINE
WITH LATEST EXPECTATIONS. BASICALLY BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) IS HIGHEST. CHANCES DIMINISH AS THEY
MOVE MORE INLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST JUST
ENTERING STONE AND PERRY COUNTY MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) STRONG OR
SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING AS THEY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A
STRIP OF STRONGER WINDS AT H8 WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER
THOSE AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.
WATER LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WILL PEAK AT 1 1/2 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE)...AROUND DAYLIGHT. MAY BE SOME
WATER RUNUP ON THE BEACHES AT THAT TIME BUT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST THEN WEST...NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROLONGED EVENT. /11

*************************PREVIOUS***************** **************

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER WITH A SURFACE WAVE ON
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND NEAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
AREA RADARS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A
PREFRONTAL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO EASTERN ARKANSAS
WHICH IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING EASTWARD AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES. THESE SHORTWAVES AND SEVERAL OTHERS
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) TONIGHT WITH THE TWO SURFACE LOWS
PHASING TOGETHER AND DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF LFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LFT) AT THE EXPENSE OF THE
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE INLAND CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) IS FINALLY
STARTING TO SLOW BUT THE GULF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) HAS CONTINUED EASTWARD
QUICKLY NEAR 25 KNOTS. AM COUNTING ON THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO
DECELERATE AS THE SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO EJECT NORTHWARD AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...BUT IF THE
LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD THEN DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BY MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY WHILE
HEADING TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
THE PREFRONTAL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AND STRONGEST CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) MOVING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MOVES THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING
FROM NEAR AAF TO MOB THEN MORE WELL DEFINED TOWARDS SHV. THIS WARM
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES NORTH OVERNIGHT BUT A
SECONDARY WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...DEFINED BY DEWPOINTS OF ABOUT 73F AND ABOVE
AND ALSO VAGUELY SEEN OFFSHORE IN THE SATELLITE LOOP...MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SECONDARY WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE PREFRONTAL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)/COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVE THROUGH. THE 850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES
INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2)...WITH THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SERVING AS AN AREA
OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL FAVORABLE SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR). THE SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) AND 850 FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY EJECTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASE TO 200-600 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AS THE
SECONDARY WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES ONSHORE THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)
DURING FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CAPES IN CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...NEAR 1000 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG). THE HIGHEST
CAPES WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) VALUES...BUT STILL
LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS AND A LOW END TORNADO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO)/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...MAINLY FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF). ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) SPREADS INTO THE REGION...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC SYSTEM RICK ALSO SPREADING FURTHER INTO THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES RISING TO NEAR 2.3
INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) GUIDANCE
REMAINS ELEVATED...SO THIS PORTENDS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) RATHER THAN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) RISK...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/GEM/UKMET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UKMET)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) BUT DIFFERENCES
EVOLVE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE SPEED OF THE PREFRONTAL
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF). HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...WHICH FOR
FRIDAY MORNING KEEPS CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
TAPER OFF TO A DRY FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SURFACE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
REGION WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURNING BY MID
WEEK AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE MOVING OUT MID WEEK AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN. /29

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) TO NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. /13

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VCSH INCREASING AROUND TERMINALS AS COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TONIGHT. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z WITH IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS AT EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BUT WILL NOT SATISFY DURATION REQUIREMENTS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 66 77 49 71 / 90 60 20 05
PENSACOLA 70 79 55 71 / 80 80 20 10
DESTIN 71 79 60 71 / 60 80 30 10
EVERGREEN 66 76 48 70 / 70 80 20 10
WAYNESBORO 60 72 44 68 / 90 40 10 10
CAMDEN 65 74 47 69 / 80 70 20 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

[ROLLTIDE]

astal Flood Warning

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
236 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

.STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH
TIDES...HAVE RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES OF NEAR 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED
TIDE LEVELS. DUE TO OVER WASH...SEVERAL AREA ROADS WERE EXPERIENCING
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

ALZ063-064-231500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.CF.S.0003.000000T0000Z-091023T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.CF.W.0002.091023T0736Z-091023T1500Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
236 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND HAS DRIVEN WATER LEVELS ON THE NORTH
END OF MOBILE BAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO THIS...THE CAUSEWAY WAS
EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING. HIGH TIDE AT THE STATE DOCKS IS AT 322
AM.

SOME WIND DRIVEN SPRAY WAS SPLASHING ONTO STATE ROAD 163 AT THE
SOUTH END OF THE DOG RIVER BRIDGE...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. ON DAUPHIN ISLAND...FROM ST.
STEPHENS STREET WEST...THERE IS AT LEAST 6 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER ON
BIENVILLE BOULEVARD. THE FORT GAINES PIER WAS UNDER WATER.

A FEW ROADS IN SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATER
RUN UP FROM THE HIGH TIDES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. CODEN BELT ROAD
IN CODEN...WARNER STREET IN BAYOU LA BATRE AND SHELL BELT ROAD
WERE CLOSED. THESE ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TIDE AT BAYOU LA BATRE WAS AT 115 AM CDT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 262048
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...AFTER SEEING A WIDE
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LATE LAST WEEK...THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) PACKAGE. SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BY AROUND
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE JUST ONSHORE AND OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA ON
TUESDAY. MAY SEE AN ELEVATED TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) OR TWO NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BUT INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOW. THE TSTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSTM) THREAT WILL
BE HIGHEST OVER PRIMARILY THE COASTAL ZONES...OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITIES WILL BE
FOUND. THE LAST NINE RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE MLCAPES OF AROUND 500
J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY BY AROUND 21Z...AND LOLVL
HELICITIES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING NEAR THE COAST PAST SEVERAL
SREF RUNS AS WELL...APPROACHING 150 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) IN THE LOWEST 1 KM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE A RISK...ALBEIT VERY LOW
RISK...OF ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A MUCH NICER DAY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) TEMP GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE A QUICK TURN AROUND
AFTER THE NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ORGANIZES TO THE
WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA LATE THIS WEEK...WITH PRIMARY AFFECTS
APPEARING TO BE ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST...AND FRIDAY OVER EASTERN
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY)
SKIES AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ALONG THE GULF COAST. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (18Z/00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 KNOTS. 77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE GULF WILL INTERACT WITH A
HIGH OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)
DISTURBANCE ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT SAME LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO NEAR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRATIFORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATIFORM) RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS REBOUNDED A
BIT FROM MODEL OUTPUTS TUESDAY. BROUGHT SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) TO 6 TO 8 FEET PER
BRETSHCNEIDER AS THE FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) IS OUT OF THE SOUTH ESTIMATED 150 MILES.
CUT DOWN BY ABOUT A THIRD IN SHOAL AREAS WEST FOR TUESDAY AND ABOUT
20% FOR LOWER SEA HEIGHTS. SOUTHERLY WIND BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY REBOUNDING AND VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 77/BD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BD)

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THEN FURTHER DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN UP ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) OVER THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 59 71 57 74 / 60 90 20 10
PENSACOLA 62 73 63 77 / 80 100 30 10
DESTIN 64 75 67 78 / 90 100 40 20
EVERGREEN 56 69 56 81 / 70 100 30 10
WAYNESBORO 55 69 50 78 / 60 90 20 05
CAMDEN 55 68 54 81 / 60 90 30 05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 271709
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.UPDATE...JUST CANCELLED TORNADO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) 776 AND HAVE CLEANED UP AND
RESHIPPED ALL OF OUR PUBLIC PRODUCTS. THE STRONGER CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) HAS
NOW MOVED EAST OF OUR FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AREA...AND WITH THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) REMAINING
OFFSHORE...THE BETTER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) HAVE REMAINDED JUST
OFFSHORE AS EXPECTED. 12/DS

...PREVIOUS DISCN FROM 450 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009 FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN OFF ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING THEN
OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER LOW BY THE EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN
TENNESSEE. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREA RADARS
CURRENTLY SHOW SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) INCREASES THIS MORNING AS THE 850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH THE RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WITH THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) AND BULK OF THE RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES ONSHORE. INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED EVEN WITH THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING ONSHORE WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPES AT MOST 200-500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) IS
LIMITED WITH THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...75 TO 125 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2)...SO AM
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /29

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER
THE AL/WRN FL COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WED WHERE ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHWRS WILL EXIST. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED WED OVER THE LAND ZONES. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/UKMET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UKMET) AND
CANADIAN GEM LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AS WE
ENTER THE LATTER END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AMPLIFIES WITH A
DEEP TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE RIDGING EXPANDS OVER FL
AND THE SOUTHEAST ON THU. THE GULF SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD WED NIGHT/THU AS NEXT COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES EASTWARD OUT
OF THE SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) PLAINS. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHWRS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OFF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE BEST LIFT AND POOLING OF DEEP
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY THU...
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO BRING A MORE ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE)
CONVECTIVE MODE TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) INTENSIFIES TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS. FORECASTERS SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)
TO INCREASE (CAPES 500-1500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)) BY FRI AFTERNOON...THE HIGHER OF
WHICH CLOSER TO THE COAST. CONSIDERING THESE ISSUES...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE COUNTY WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) AREA FROM STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY FRI. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND ITS POSITION WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS. WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR
NOW AND REFRAIN FROM GETTING INTO DETAIL ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE/PLACEMENT AS WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS TO ASSESS.

FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) MORNING...THEN IT APPEARS WE WILL
HAVE A RAINFREE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL TO CLOSE
OUT OCTOBER AND THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AS WE MOVE INTO THE START OF
NOVEMBER. /10

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NEARS THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF)
SITES. EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING
TAPERING OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KNOTS TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MEANWHILE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING)
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
CONTINUES VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) AROUND TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES. A STRONG SYSTEM ADVANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS THEN INTO CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRINGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE MARINE AREA. THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) VEERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THEN
INCREASES SLIGHTLY WHILE VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING) TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AT 15-20 KNOTS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED IN
WIDESPREAD SHWRS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING) IN
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TSTMS TODAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 71 55 79 64 / 80 20 05 20
PENSACOLA 74 61 76 67 / 90 30 10 20
DESTIN 72 65 78 69 / 90 30 10 20
EVERGREEN 70 54 79 56 / 90 30 05 20
WAYNESBORO 68 48 76 59 / 90 20 05 20
CAMDEN 67 51 76 57 / 90 30 05 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 280953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
453 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WILL START OUT WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT)
AHEAD OF A LARGE SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND MILD TONIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFYING WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND DEEP TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. GULF FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO BEGIN A NORTHWARD RETREAT THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. WEATHER LOOKS TO TREND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WINS
OUT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN CHECK OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW/MID RANGE CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE BETTER AND THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WEAKER. THE AMPLIFICATION IN
THE HEIGHTS ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OUT OF THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS...IT`S LOOKING MORE
LIKE HALLOWEEN WILL LIVE UP TO ITS NAME AS A SPOOK IS IN THE OL`
FORECAST.

DEALING WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/CANADIAN
GEM TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
31ST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS TO BE ONGOING OVER LOUISIANA...MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG/POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) COULD BE MAKING AN IMPACT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DAWN) HOURS SATURDAY. AS LOW LEVEL (H85)
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) INTENSIFIES TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) EXPERIENCES DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN A WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...STRONG/POSSIBLY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SEVERE TSTMS COULD BE SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). NOT SO WELCOME
NEWS FOR TRICK OR TREATERS. MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE NEEDED
ON LATER SHIFTS.

THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SWING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE NEW WEEK. FOLLOWED THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE UNSEASONABLY WARM FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...COOLING TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...WILL HAVE VLIFR TO LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS AT MOB
AND BFM IN DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)...WHICH DISSIPATES BY MID MORNING LEAVING VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS. AT PNS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PNS) WILL NEED TO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 1 KFT AND LIGHT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) UNTIL MID MORNING THEN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS LIKEWISE FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A HIGH
CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) FORMS THIS EVENING AND STEADILY LOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE
TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF A SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. /29


&&

.MARINE...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST FOR THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LARGE
TIMING CHANGES IN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/GEM AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER
COORDINATION WITH AREA OFFICES...HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
SOLUTION FOR THIS ISSUANCE ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ADVANCES. THE ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
INCREASES GRADUALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS AND
REMAINS GENERALLY STEADY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20
KNOTS IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. /29


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LOWEST GRIDDED HUMIDITIES INDICATE NUMBERS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 76 66 83 69 / 05 30 40 20
PENSACOLA 78 68 83 70 / 05 20 40 20
DESTIN 77 70 82 72 / 05 10 40 20
EVERGREEN 79 60 83 66 / 00 10 50 20
WAYNESBORO 76 60 81 67 / 00 30 50 30
CAMDEN 78 60 82 66 / 00 10 50 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHOCTAW...CLARKE...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER MOBILE...AND
WASHINGTON.

FL...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 290928
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AREA RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) IN THE 300-310K LAYER
AND A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. MUCH OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY AS SEVERAL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA...MAINLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE
WEAKER STILL RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC/DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE
AREA.

THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT SMALL POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHILE THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW BRINGS A
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO BETTER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 500 OVER THE EASTERN PORTION.
UNSEASONABLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AS WELL. SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)
WILL BE BEST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE 850 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BE STRONGEST...NEAR 35 KNOTS...RESULTING IN 0-1
KM HELICITIES AS HIGH AS 150 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AS CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) BECOMES SURFACE BASED AFTER THE MID MORNING HOURS. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER LIFT FROM THE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...BUT IF SUFFICIENT LIFT IS
PRESENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THERE AS WELL...WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WILL BE PRESENT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY AND
UNUSUALLY WARM TONIGHT...NEAR WHAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE...IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /29

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE) TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ON THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS PACKAGE IS NO
DIFFERENT...BUT LOOKING AS IF WE ARE NOW MEETING BETTER CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS REGARDING ITS PASSAGE AS WE MOVE
WITHIN THE NEARER TERM WINDOW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE).

AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEP TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FRIDAY WILL
POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL)/CONVERGE INTO AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS
PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) LOOK TO OCCUR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 29.00 GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/UKMET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UKMET) AND CANADIAN
GEM MODELS OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MASS FIELDS/MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)/AND
FORCING WHICH LENDS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. THERE REMAINS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) OF SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOR SUCH WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) ALONG WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS)/STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20LEVEL%20JET) STRUCTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERING THIS...EXPECT A NARROWING...
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL%20LINE) TO ADVANCE EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN RISK IN ANY SEVERE TSTMS EARLY ON WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...THEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN RISK IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE LINE ADVANCES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.

IT APPEARS FROM THE NEW FORECAST...THAT MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TRICK OR TREATERS
ARE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMES AS BETTER NEWS THAN WHAT WE
SAW 24HRS AGO.

WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...A SERIES OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE DEEP SOUTH WEATHER PICTURE
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH NICE CONDITIONS. COOLER TOO. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S BEACHES AND DAILY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. /10

&&

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) FORECAST FOR THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TIME PERIOD DUE TO PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CURRENTLY OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO START WITH
IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR)/MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES THEN CEILINGS RISE TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
THEN VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). /29

&&

.MARINE...THE SUSPECT GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) RUN FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH
A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION...RETURNING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/GEM/UKMET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UKMET) AS WELL. THE VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHWARD AND INTO CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS TODAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) SATURDAY. THE
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) GRADUALLY SUBSIDES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. /29


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL KEEP LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM CRITICAL LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING AGENCIES COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME TSTMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION...SATURDAY MORNING. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 81 70 84 63 / 40 20 30 60
PENSACOLA 82 70 80 67 / 30 10 20 50
DESTIN 81 71 80 69 / 20 10 20 40
EVERGREEN 82 64 83 62 / 40 10 20 50
WAYNESBORO 81 65 84 55 / 70 20 50 70
CAMDEN 81 63 83 56 / 50 20 20 70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 022050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
250 PM CST MON NOV 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)TAKING A LOOK AT THE
CURRENT SITUATION OVER THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AN UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WAS ANALYZED STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) AND THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING MAINLY
OVER THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) BORDER.

A DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...EXCEPT FOR THE FL PENINSULA...WITH
DEWPOINTS OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 OVER THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA. AN INTERESTING
FEATURE IS A DRIER AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ACROSS TENN TO SOUTHERN MS CORRESPONDING TO A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) CROSSING THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) PLAINS ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM)
WILL PUSH A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOWARDS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ADDING A BIT MORE WIND SPEED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20SPEED) TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO REAL ADDITIONAL COOLER OR DRIER AIR. A SECOND SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
PASSING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS A BIT DIFFERENT. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) PUSHES THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT......THEN NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE SPECIFIC OF THE FORECAST...THIS TIMING IS IRRELEVANT IN THE
SHORT TERM. BOTH PHYSICAL MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE
ARE ADVERTISING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN...WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.
PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY ON)AFTER THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A DRIER SLUG...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...OF AIR MOVING OVER THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) DIGGING THE EASTERN
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)(SHIFTING EAST TO OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE PROCESS)...WHILE
MORE ENERGY IMPINGES UPON THE WEST COAST...THE WEST COAST RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING NORTH FROM MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) OVER THE US/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA) ROCKIES BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE EASTERN
SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF...FORMING A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...WHILE THE WESTERN ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...PUSHING THE ROCKIES` UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
EASTWARD...OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY...THEN OVER
THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE SEASON TEMPS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED UP...TO ABOVE SEASONAL BY SUNDAY AND
THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. STILL NO REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE OCTOBER WEATHER HAS ARRIVED...ONLY
A MONTH LATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 7 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 03/0100Z...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AFTER 03/1400Z. /22

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS DUE TO COLDER
AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST OVER GEORGIA. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE.
/22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS GUIDANCE
IS ALSO ADVERTISING A DRY SLUG OF AIR MOVING OVER AREA THE END OF THE
WEEK BEHIND A RE-ENFORCING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THURSDAY...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 48 73 51 73 50 / 00 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 52 74 54 74 55 / 00 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 56 71 60 73 60 / 00 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 43 72 45 74 44 / 00 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 45 71 45 72 44 / 00 00 00 00 00
CAMDEN 43 71 44 71 43 / 00 00 00 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 030535 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST MON NOV 2 2009


.AVIATION...(06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND COOL AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 031000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR TODAY UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ALLOWING MORE STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE
TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ALSO...GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) TO FORM FOR MOST AREAS AS
MENTIONED BY EARLIER SHIFTS. TO THE SOUTH BETTER CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) OR BLOW OFF
FROM WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE OVER SW GULF OR BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO REMAIN IN A GENERAL WEST
TO EAST FASHION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY DUE
TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) OF
COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT DUE TO
BETTER MIXING FROM THE COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD. /32

.LONG TERM...(WED THROUGH NEXT TUE)...UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) CONTINUES TO BE
`CARVED OUT` THROUGH FRIDAY AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE SEWD FROM S
CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) CANADA INTO AND THROUGH ERN 1/3 CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) POSITION. UPPER
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THEN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BY FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND AS SW
U.S. 4-CORNERS UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DIGS AND ALLOWS DOWNSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DOWNSTREAM) SE U.S. RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) TO
AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE. THIS GREATLY TURNS OUR LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) FROM
N-NELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NELY) TO SELY BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ENDURING THROUGH REMAINDER OF
PERIOD AS LOWER TROPOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPOSPHERE) ALSO MOISTENS SIGNIFICANTLY. FIRST
EFFECTS WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WITH
A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAINSHOWERS TO THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON FROM
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 03.00UTC ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR WITH ENTIRE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION UNTIL DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME WHEN
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS MUCH FASTER SHOWING U.S. PLAINS EC SYSTEM ALREADY EJECTED AND
BEGINNING THE OCCLUSION PHASE OVER UPPER MIDWEST WHILE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH SAME SYSTEM LOCATED OVER 4-CORNERS IS AMPLIFYING AND NOT
YET EJECTED. ECWMF SOLUTION SPELLS MORE RIDGING FOR OUR AREA AND AT
LEAST 1-2 MORE DAYS OF WARMER TEMPS VERSUS FASTER GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). BOTH MODELS
HINT AT A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW INVOF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVOF) BAY OF CAMPECHE POISED TO ADVECT NWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWD) IN
ADVANCE OF LWAVE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) ON DAY 7. MAX/MIN TEMP PATTERN WILL MANIFEST
`CHAMBER OF COMMERCE STYLE` THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN...AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION DESCRIBED ABOVE...IT BECOMES MUGGY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MUGGY)
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN SO
UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). COULD SEE LOWER 80S EASILY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (IF NOT SUNDAY SOME PLACES OVER THE INTERIOR).
WENT WITH CURRENT GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) TRENDS ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS. DID RAISE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
SUN...MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS GIVEN DEPTH AND MAGNTIUDE OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
RETURN...WEAK SYNOP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOP) FORCING IN SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND WITH ADEQUATE INSTBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTBY) FOR
ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD)-SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) DEEP CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION). /23 JMM
&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE...REBUILDING
AGAIN TONIGHT AS MORE COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE AS MAIN TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. LATEST PROGGS
FROM THE BOTH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) DEPICT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU GIVING WAY
TO A MODERATE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THU AND THU NIGHT. WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
MENTION EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE TEXT WITH THIS PATTERN FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT. AS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) SHIFTS EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRI
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH A
DECENT THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND RESULTING A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) MOSTLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS./32
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AFTERNOONS NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MIN RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR THE CRITICAL 35% THRESHOLD...BUT WILL BE DURATION
LIMITED. /23 JMM
&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY EARLY WED MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHOT OF COOLER AIR
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. /32
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 73 51 76 50 / 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 74 55 76 52 / 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 73 61 74 59 / 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 73 44 75 42 / 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 73 45 73 43 / 00 00 00 00
CAMDEN 73 45 73 44 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 060951
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH OVER OH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OH)/WV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WV)/PA
SSE...TO OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL PUSH MORE OF THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA). AFTER
LOOKING AT YESTERDAY`S POST FRONTAL VERIFICATION...MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) WAS TOO
WARM/DRY. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BEING PUSHED TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY...AM TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY....SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE A BIT.
DEWPOINTS...AM EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAYS IN...BUT FEEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE...SO HAVE BUMPED DEWPOINTS UP A BIT ALSO
FROM GUIDANCE.

/16

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SET UP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS AS THE HIGH GETS TO
THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) DESPITE THE STILL
MOSTLY EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES
BELOW AN INCH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL START A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) OF RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) MAY
WRING OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THANKS TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...MAY BE SOME CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) OVER THE COASTAL ZONES FROM TIME TO TIME.
/11

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 2 LOW PRESSURE AREAS
MOVING NORTHERLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE LOWS WILL BE
WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST AND GET CAUGHT UP IN A H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ATTACHES TO THE IDA
CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WILL BE 60 TO 70 PERCENT AREA WIDE. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RAINY...ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)...INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ALL
AFFECTING THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL BRING
INCREASING MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL ZONES AND OFFSHORE.
IDA OR ITS REMAINS MAY STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST OF THE
AREA...IN WHICH CASE IT WOULD BE MAINLY A MARINE CONCERN INTO
MIDWEEK WITH THE ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE SOME HIGHER
THAN NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WATER LEVELS AND WATER RUNUP DUE TO LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF ITS TROPICAL NATURE IDA CAN
MAINTAIN AND WHERE IT GOES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GOES). /11

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WILL GET
PUSHED TO OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GET
STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)/CA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CA)
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20DIRECTION) TO A
GENERAL EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORN. IDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
MEANDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER) NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) OVER THE
GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMING STRONG BY LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE 20 TO 60NM ZONES. AS IDA MOVES PAST CUBA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK WILL
PUSH A FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP IDA
FROM MOVING OVER THE MARINE FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) PROPER...THOUGH INCREASED SWELLS ARE
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BY MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL). WITH THE TIDAL CYCLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDAL%20CYCLE) APPROACHING ITS MAXIMUM IN THE COMING
WEEK...THIS MOST LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) WILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS OVER COASTAL AREAS.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) TODAY OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...LOWEST HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER ALL THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ONLY FLORIDA HAS GUIDELINES THAT REQUIRE A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG). WINDS
TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EAST. ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE
IN DEW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEW) POINTS ON SATURDAY THAT SHOULD NOT NEED A RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) OR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH). /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 74 47 76 53 / 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 73 55 75 55 / 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 72 64 73 60 / 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 74 38 76 44 / 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 73 38 74 45 / 00 00 00 00
CAMDEN 72 40 74 46 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RED%20FLAG) WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 082119
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
319 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) QUITE A COMPLEX AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) IDA. HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE)
IDA HAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AND CANCUN RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR). HOWEVER...THE LAST
FEW SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A LITTLE MORE RAGGED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE
WITH SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) MAY BE STARTING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.

IDA IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAKENING IS
STILL EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS IDA
APPROACHES MUCH COOLER GULF WATERS. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER
WESTERN TEXAS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GULF. THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL)
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL CONTINUE TO SEND IDA NORTHWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST DOES IDA WEAKEN AND WILL
IT MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA?
THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME MIXED SIGNALS OUT THERE AND FORECASTING
EXTRATROPICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EXTRATROPICAL) TRANSITION IS ALWAYS CHALLENGING. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS
DEVELOPED AN INTERESTING SCENARIO WHERE IT FORECASTS A BAROCLINIC
LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF TOMORROW...WHICH IN TURN HANGS UP
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THIS ALLOWS IDA TO SHOOT
NORTH...REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARM%20SECTOR) AND DELAYING A TRANSITION. IN
FACT...THE CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) PHASE DIAGRAM CHART FROM THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) REVEALS THE MODEL
MAINTAINING A TROPICAL SYSTEM UP UNTIL LANDFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LANDFALL). HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) HOLDING BACK...THE COOLER WATER...COOLER DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WOULD SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. TO MAKE IT EVEN MORE
COMPLICATED...THE HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) JET STREAK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET%20STREAK) TO ITS NORTH...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW)...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. ALL IN ALL...IT
IS GOING TO BE A VERY CLOSE CALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM
MAINTAINING THE PUNCH OF A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR OUR ENTIRE COAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF INDEED IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EXTRATROPICAL)...WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20FLOODING) IMPACT. AS
IDA TRANSITIONS...ITS WIND FIELD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20FIELD) WILL BROADEN AND THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)
BETWEEN IDA AND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL PUT US IN QUITE THE
`SQUEEZE PLAY`...RESULTING IN STRONG GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WINDS. GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS SPREADING INLAND...HAVE ALSO ISSUED
A INLAND TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) WIND WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR INLAND ZONES. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO STRESS NOT TO FOCUS ON WHETHER THIS IS TROPICAL OR NON TROPICAL.
INSTEAD...PREPARE FOR THE WINDS AND POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20FLOODING)
REGARDLESS. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA.

TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. REALLY RAMP UP POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ALL ZONES CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
THE STORM APPROACHING THE COAST. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT WITH
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SINCE FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH)
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH)
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR NOW. LATEST NHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NHC) TRACK HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON
REDUCING POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STUCK CLOSE TO MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD. /34 JFB


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ALL ATTENTION DEVOTED TO IDA. A RETURN
TO AUTUMN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AUTUMN) WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MID TO LATE WEEK AS IDA MOVES OUT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF A COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). LATEST GUIDANCE WAFFLING ON THE WEEKEND PATTERN...SO WILL
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT THAT CAN BE TAKEN
OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS) WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT)
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) IDA INCREASES.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA AS HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. GALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GALE) CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) IDA APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. AS IDA MOVES INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
SHE WILL TRANSITION TO EXTRA TROPICAL AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WILL REMAIN TIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THUS SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE NEEDED IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THURSDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 61 70 62 71 / 20 80 80 40
PENSACOLA 63 71 63 70 / 05 80 90 40
DESTIN 65 73 65 69 / 05 80 90 50
EVERGREEN 55 71 61 70 / 05 60 90 60
WAYNESBORO 56 69 58 71 / 10 70 80 40
CAMDEN 55 71 60 69 / 05 60 90 60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WIND WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
MOBILE.

HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) WIND WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WIND WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA)...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) WIND WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 181022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VERTICALLY%20STACKED%20SYSTEM) OVER MISSOURI WILL AFFECT
SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLEAR) TO PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) SKIES PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE OFF WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID THIRTIES...AREAS OF
FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
COASTAL PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED A FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST)
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER
AND LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS). BOTH AGREE THAT
CYCLOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) DIGS ACROSS TEXAS. THE
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THE LOW PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /29

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN ADVANCES
EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST OVER THE MARINE AREA BY FRIDAY...INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
NEARS THE MARINE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE MARINE AREA. WINDS DECREASE WHILE VEERING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VEERING)
AROUND TO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 62 39 69 43 / 00 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 62 42 68 46 / 00 05 00 00
DESTIN 62 47 66 49 / 05 05 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 33 67 36 / 05 05 00 00
WAYNESBORO 60 33 67 37 / 00 05 00 00
CAMDEN 60 34 65 37 / 05 05 00 00
CRESTVIEW 64 34 70 37 / 05 05 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...
UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
INLAND SANTA ROSA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROSA).

MS...FROST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROST) ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
WAYNE.

GM...NONE.

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[Alex]

Winter Weather Advisory!!

Statement as of 4:04 AM CST on December 04, 2009

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to
9 am CST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for light to moderate rain mixed with snow changing
to mostly light snow late which is in effect from 11 PM this evening
to 9 am CST Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

Light to moderate rain mixed with snow at times then changing over to
mostly light snow early Saturday morning is expected. Total snow
accumulations of 1 inch or less is expected.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered overpasses or bridges and limited visibilities... and use
caution while driving.

[ROLLTIDE]

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.A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.SURFACE VISIBILITY REMAINS AROUND A FOURTH OF A MILE OR
LESS.GENERALLY ALONG & SO. OF INTERSTATE 10 & NEAR THE INLAND
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
POOR VISIBILITY COMPOUNDED BY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN.WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-150430-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FG.Y.0021.091214T2021Z-091215T1200Z/
LWR MOBILE-LWR BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.MOBILE.TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.
DAPHNE.FAIRHOPE.FOLEY.SPANISH FORT.PENSACOLA.
FERRY PASS.BRENT.WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.
MYRTLE GROVE.PACE.MILTON.WRIGHT.SEMINOLE.EGLIN AFB.
VALPARAISO
221 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY.

SURFACE VISIBILITY ALONG THE COASTAL ROADS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
FOURTH OF A MILE OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE USE OF LOW BEAMS IS
RECOMMENDED.EVEN IN THE DAY TIME SO OTHERS CAN SEE YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING.SLOW DOWN.
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS.& LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

[jess]

It looks like you'll get what we had today. Heavy fog and thunderstorms.

[ROLLTIDE]

I hope that we get some flooding rains but it seems to always miss us. Like the stuff right now 50 to 100 miles north of the coast

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[Alex]

So will the Conde's roll tonight or postpone?

[Alex]

Nope the rain is falling in earnest now and they postponed tonight's parade.

[Alex]

Video: Waterspout offshore at Orange Beach captured on tape by camcorder (http://blog.al.com/live/2010/06/video_waterspout_offshore_at_o.html)


<table style="border:0px; padding:0px;"><tr><td><font style="font-size:13px; font-family:Verdana; font-weight:bold; font-color:#293546">Waterspout off beach in Orange Beach</font></td></tr><tr><td><script type="text/javascript" src="http://tribeca.vidavee.com/advance/trh/embedAsset.js?width=470.0&height=352.0&wmode=transparent&skin=v3AdvInt.swf&dockey=A08164A3741D6424DEEF9238555B290F&"></script></td></tr></table>

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 281044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
544 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...AND BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY LATE
TONIGHT. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL ALSO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) REPLACING THE HIGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW).

LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND
ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE...THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS OUR MAIN CONCERN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON TAP. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...REACHING BETWEEN 95 AND 97 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70 TO 74 DEGREES WILL
PUSH MAX HEAT INDICES TO BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AND RANGE FROM 73 TO 76 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM...BY MIDDAY THU SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TO H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER WEST
OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) ALLOWING EASTERN EDGE OF SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)...CENTERED NEAR THE
LA/TX BORDER ALONG THE COAST...TO SHIFT WEST OVER EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...THUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS THU AFTERNOON AND THU
EVENING...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM GRENEVILLE AL TO
ROUGHLY NAVARRE IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. CURRENT 00Z GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)
SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE BY LATE THU WHILE THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. AS A RESULT HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
ALL THREE MODELS...THEN BASICALLY GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THAN
THE CURRENT MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE THU AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) AND THU EVENING, BY THU NIGHT BETTER
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE MOSTLY OFF THE
FL COAST WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) MOVING IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BY THIS TIME COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS A FEW
STORMS MAY STRONG. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH FRI FOLLOWED
BY BETTER DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST BOTH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AND SUN...MOSTLY SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
IN COVERAGE...AND INSHORE AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WEAK AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) CIRCULATIONS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN
ALLOWING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE) PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 OVER
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) BOTH FRI AND SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AND MID 90S
THEREAFTER. WITH SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) DEWPTS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS AND BETTER
SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) OCCUR ALSO FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THU THROUGH SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT).
AS FOR TEMPS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE CURRENT 00Z MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV)/MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX) NUMBERS
INITIALLY...THAN LOWERED OR ADJUSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. AS A
RESULT...MAIN CONCERN FOR NOW WILL BE HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) FOR FRI
AND SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AFTERNOONS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[28/12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

&&

.MARINE...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL. A SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL
REPLACE THE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL WEAKEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK FROM THE SOUTH. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. BEST
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVER AL STRETCHING SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD). 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MOBILE 95 74 96 75 / 05 05 20 20
PENSACOLA 96 78 95 79 / 05 10 30 20
DESTIN 94 79 92 80 / 05 10 30 30
EVERGREEN 96 73 95 74 / 10 10 40 20
WAYNESBORO 95 73 95 75 / 10 10 20 20
CAMDEN 96 73 94 75 / 20 10 40 20
CRESTVIEW 97 73 95 74 / 10 10 40 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[Alex]

Another one for the record books this hot summer:

Record Report

Statement as of 05:30 PM CDT on August 10, 2010

... Record high temperature set at Mobile...

a record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at Mobile today.
This breaks the old record of 97 set in 1968.

[dkmac]

Severe Weather Warning


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

ALC003-291230-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-100829T1230Z/
BALDWIN AL-
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 656 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GASQUE...
OR ABOUT 23 MILES EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OAK...
BON SECOUR...PALMETTO BEACH...TURKEY BRANCH...MOUTH OF WEEKS BAY...
MARLOW AND MAGNOLIA SPRINGS

ANOTHER STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR ROMAR BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY
OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM.

[Alex]

I was over in Mobile yesterday, was definitely hot. Some sprinkles fell on my way back east, but the heavy rain was confined to Baldwin County and was periodic through to the state line. I was watching the local news on Thursday and they showed 0.00 inches of rain at Mobile Regional Airport. Has any fallen since then?

Record Report

Statement as of 1:26 am CDT on September 25, 2010

... Record high temperature set at Mobile...

A record high temperature of 94 degrees was set at Mobile yesterday.
This ties the old record of 94 set in 1961.

[Alex]

Public Information Statement

Statement as of 2:21 PM CDT on October 25, 2010

... NWS storm damage assessment team finds EF-1 tornado damage in
Mobile Alabama...

A storm damage assessment team from the National Weather Service
forecast office in Mobile conducted an on-site survey of storm
damage that occurred in west Mobile shortly before 530 am CDT this
morning. Meteorologists with the assessment team found a relatively
short tornado damage path (of approximately 1 statute mile) that
started at the intersection of Bomar place and Michael Avenue in
west Mobile... moving east across Azalea Road... and ending at the
festival center at montlimar drive just south of Airport Boulevard.
The tornado circulation was approximately 150 yards at the widest
point... with maximum estimated winds (gleaned from the damage
observations) near 108 mph or EF-1 on the Enhanced Fujita tornado
scale.

At the starting point (30.6706 deg latitude and 88.1535 deg
longitude)... at the corner of Bomar place and Michael Avenue... the
team found one home with roof damage... and 4 other homes with minor
gutter and fascia damage. Several trees suffered damage by being
snapped off at the top or losing several large limbs. Wind
estimates at this location were approximately 65 mph based on the
damage seen. The width of the path at this location was
approximately 100 yards.

The second damage point the team found was at the corner of micheal
Boulevard and Azalea Road (30.6705 deg latitude and 88.1494 deg
longitude). At this location the path widened to approximately 150
yards and the circulation intensified. Meteorologists here found
evidence of winds near 92 mph with sections of roofing missing from
2 restaurants (one a mcdonalds) and 1 car-wash. Several windows
were blown out of the McDonalds restaurant. A Chevron gas station
next door had several pumps blown over with metal panels blown away
from the metal canopy. Damage at this location was estimated to be
in the EF-1 range of the Enhanced Fujita scale.

The intensity of the damage weakened at the cabana apartments
between Azalea and downtowner Boulevard (third damage location at
30.6714 deg latitude and 88.1428 deg longitude). Here the team
found minor damage to some Pine trees with sections of large limbs
stripped out. Wind estimates at the Third Point were near 65 mph
with a path width of 100 yards.

The tornado re-intensified at the festival center shopping mall
between downtowner Boulevard and montlimar drive (30.6724 deg
latitude and 88.1387 deg longitude). Here the team found damage to
2 buildings in the festival center where a few sections of roofing
were blown off. On the roof of Virginia College... 6 large air
conditioning units (hvac) were damaged and blown off of their
mounts. One of the air conditioning units was blown off of the roof
and landed in the parking lot in front of Virginia College. Wind
estimates based on the damage observed indicated winds near 108 mph
at this location... or EF-1 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.

Interviews of individuals at the damage sites and a Post-analysis of
Doppler radar data from Mobile suggests the storm passed through the
area between 517 am CDT and 521 am CDT. No injuries were reported to
the National Weather Service from this short lived tornado. Total
dollar damage estimates are not available at this time.

Another assessment of the storm damage seen Saturday evening near
Elsanor Alabama (baldwin county) is still ongoing this afternoon.
Details and findings from that storm damage assessment in Baldwin
County will be forthcoming later this afternoon and evening.

[Alex]

Mobile reported 1.75 inches of rain overall from the first storm system to do anything on the Gulf Coast since September.

Record Report

Statement as of 05:25 PM CDT on November 03, 2010

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Mobile...

a record rainfall of 1.6 inch(es) was set at Mobile today.
This breaks the old record of 1.51 set in 1995.

[Alex]

Record Report

Statement as of 05:45 PM CST on December 09, 2010

... Record temperature event has occurred at Mobile...

a low temperature of 22 degrees was recorded at Mobile today.
This ties the old record of 22 set in 1917.

[Alex]

The squall line from last night did more damage than anticipated, probably caught more people by surprise without a severe thunderstorm watch or any other indication in the forecast outside of "slight chance of thunderstorms"...

Public Information Statement

Statement as of 9:55 PM CDT on December 12, 2010

... NWS storm damage assessment team finds straight line thunderstorm
wind damage around the Daphne Alabama area...

The following is a storm survey report conducted in Daphne Alabama
regarding the damage that occurred late Saturday evening.

* Event date: Saturday December 11, 2010

* event time: estimated 11:40-11:44 PM
(a Tornado Warning was in effect from 11:41 PM - 1153 pm)

* event location: northwestern and northern sections of Daphne, al
(west central Baldwin county)

* damaging straight line thunderstorm wind gusts: 50 to 60 mph

* sporadic damage... no discernable path

* injuries: none

* fatalities: none

* discussion/damage:
a National Weather Service damage survey team found that the damage
that occurred in Daphne Alabama late in the evening of Saturday
(december 11 2010) resulted from sporadic straight line thunderstorm
downburst winds with a peak magnitude of 50 to 60 mph (based on
observed damage).

The survey and radar data indicate damage first occurred on Thompson
Lane... where a house on the shores of Mobile Bay had some windows
blown out. No other damage was noted at this location.

About one half mile east of this location... at the intersection of
Highway 98 and Whispering Pines Road... wind damage was noted at a
car dealership. An awning at the dealership was destroyed... with
debris blowing into the car lot which resulted in the windows of
several vehicles in the lot being broken out.

To the east of the car dealership... and continuing eastward along
Whispering Pines Road for approximately one mile... sporadic minor
wind damage was noted... primarily downed small trees and a damaged
privacy fence. No damage to homes or other structures in the area
was observed.

Further east... nearing the Daphne Middle School at the intersection
of Whispering Pines Road and County Road 13... damage was noted on
metal bleachers and some fencing at a youth sports complex. At the
school itself... a metal covering over a sidewalk was damaged... with
debris blowing downwind and striking a number of school buses. The
flying debris broke out the windows of several of the buses.

Note: on Monday (december 13)... another NWS survey team is expected
to inspect storm damage that also occurred in the late evening
(december 11) and early morning (december 12) in the Milton Florida
area.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/southeast_dm.png

[ROLLTIDE]

103F mob.. breaks all time june record

[Alex]

103F mob.. breaks all time june record

And three straight days of record heat. Milton was 102 and Pensacola 98 earlier.

[Alex]

Throw in a fourth record high in the first seven days of June! :icon_fus:

Record Report

Statement as of 1:45 am CDT on June 07, 2011

... Record high temperature set at Mobile on Monday...

A record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at Mobile yesterday.
This ties the old record of 99 set in 1985.

[jess]

Is that a surface low off the Mississippi coast, moving to the west?

[ROLLTIDE]

...


.OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
HAS HAD ITS DRIEST SEVEN MONTH PERIOD EVER ON RECORD...DATING BACK TO
1871. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE U.S. DROUGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DROUGHT) MONITOR HAS PLACED MOST OF
OUR AREA IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DROUGHT) STATUS /I.E. D4/...WHICH MEANS A
DROUGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DROUGHT) THAT HAS A HISTORICAL FREQUENCY OF ONCE EVERY 50 TO 100
YEARS. TO FURTHER THIS POINT...THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALONG THE CONECUH RIVER AT
BRANTLEY...AL IS AT THE BOTTOM 1 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT
THE PRESENT TIME...WE ARE APPROXIMATELY 19.57 INCHES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR
THE YEAR IN PRECIPITATION. 01/JC

[Joe-Nathan]

WONDER WHO REPORTED THIS:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..


0307 PM HAIL 2 S BELLEFONTAINE 30.46N 88.11W
05/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MOBILE AL BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT GREERS MARKET ON DAUPHIN
ISLAND PARKWAY. LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

[ROLLTIDE]

WONDER WHO REPORTED THIS:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..


I have no idea :)

[ROLLTIDE]

My footage that was on TWC ... most of this was shot by me

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/iwitness-videos-gulf-coast-floods-29060#loc=62/436/29062


6 8 11 16 22 25 that's mine (http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/iwitness-videos-gulf-coast-floods-29060#loc=62/436/29062)

[ROLLTIDE]

Kelly Foster said no chance of rain today....... Get ready for the floods :) I would never say no chance of rain in the summertime

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/radar/klix_br248.png

[L.A.Chasers]

Kelly Foster said no chance of rain today....... Get ready for the floods :) I would never say no chance of rain in the summertime

LMAO! She should know better than that. /huh

[ROLLTIDE]

I will leave the radar up today ... That image is the perfect size for your smart phone if you want to use it

[ROLLTIDE]

http://hardcoreweather.com/radar/klix_br248.png

[Alex]

Storms Down Trees, Blocked Roads in Southern Alabama (http://www2.wkrg.com/news/2012/dec/20/6/storms-down-trees-blocked-roads-southern-alabama-ar-5207408/)

Lots of wind damage in midtown Mobile from a squall line. Tornado warnings to my west, but they appear to be skirting northward.

[ROLLTIDE]

Storms Down Trees, Blocked Roads in Southern Alabama (http://www2.wkrg.com/news/2012/dec/20/6/storms-down-trees-blocked-roads-southern-alabama-ar-5207408/)

Lots of wind damage in midtown Mobile from a squall line. Tornado warnings to my west, but they appear to be skirting northward.

That was from a Tornado that I actually chased starting at 435 am