Mobile, AL [Archive] - HardcoreWeather

ROLLTIDE

12-14-2004, 07:11 AM

.a Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight For The Coastal Portion Of The Coastal Counties & A Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect For The Remainder Of The Area.

.brisk No. Winds Will Usher In The Coldest Air Of The Season For Tonight.& Possibly The Remainder Of The Year. Overnight Low Temps Will Range From The Upper Teens Across The Far Inland Portion Of Sw Al & Se Ms.to Around 30 Near The Immediate Coast. This Will Likely Result In A Hard Freeze Over All But The Immediate Coastal Areas.where A Light Freeze Will Occur.

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-151500-
Coastal Escambia-coastal Okaloosa-coastal Santa Rosa-lwr Baldwin- Lwr Mobile- Including The Cities Of.dauphin Island.destin.
Fort Walton Beach.navarre & Pensacola
415 Am Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall Into The Mid To Upper Twenties Across The Area.except For Around Thirty Near The Immediate Coast. A Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be 32 Degrees Or Below Over A Widespread Area For More Than One Hour. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

$$

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-151500-
Butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-george-
Greene-inland Escambia-inland Okaloosa-inland Santa Rosa-monroe- Perry-stone-upper Baldwin-upper Mobile-wa-wayne-wilcox- Including The Cities Of.andalusia.bay Minette.brewton.
Butler.camden.chatom.downtown Mobile.evergreen.
Grove Hill.luverne.monroeville.crestview.leakesville.
Lucedale.new Augusta.waynesboro & Wiggins
415 Am Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Hard Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall To Around Twenty Across The Area.resulting In A Hard Freeze. A Hard Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be Below 26 Degrees For More Than Five Hrs. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

ROLLTIDE

12-14-2004, 03:54 PM

A Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight For The Coastal Portion Of The Coastal Counties & A Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect For The Remainder Of The Area.

.brisk No. Winds Will Usher In The Coldest Air Of The Season For Tonight.& Possibly The Remainder Of The Year. Overnight Low Temps Will Range From Around 20 Degrees Across The Far Inland Portion Of Sw Al & Se Ms.to Around 30 Near The Immediate Coast. This Will Likely Result In A Hard Freeze Over All But The Immediate Coastal Areas.where A Light Freeze Will Occur.

For Tues Night Into Wednesday.temps Are Again Expected To Fall To Fall Into The Lwr 20s Over Counties No. Of The Ms.al & Fl Coastal Counties.with Temps In The Upper 20s To Around 30 Over The Coastal Counties.

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-151500-
Baldwin Coastal-escambia Coastal-mobile Coastal-okaloosa Coastal- Santa Rosa Coastal- Including The Cities Of.fort Walton Beach.gulf Shores.milton.
Mobile.pensacola
400 Pm Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall Into The Mid To Upper Twenties Across The Area.except For Around Thirty Near The Immediate Coast. A Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be 32 Degrees Or Below Over A Widespread Area For More Than One Hour. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

$$

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-151500-
Baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-
Escambia-escambia Inland-george-greene-mobile Inland-monroe- Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Inland-stone-wa-wayne-
Wilcox-
Including The Cities Of.andalusia.bay Minette.brewton.
Butler.camden.chatom.citronelle.crestview.evergree n.
Greenville.grove Hill.leakesville.lucedale.luverne.
Monroeville.new Augusta.walnut Hill.waynesboro.wiggins 400 Pm Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Hard Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall To Around Twenty Across The Area.resulting In A Hard Freeze. A Hard Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be Below 26 Degrees For More Than Five Hrs. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

Tuesday Night.temps Will Again Fall Into The Lwr 20s North Of A Leaf To Uriah To Andalusia Line.24 To 28 Between This Line & Interstate 10. Interests Over This Area Should Remain Ready For Any Problems That May Result From The Freezing Temps Again Tues Night.

LI Phil

12-14-2004, 04:02 PM

Hey, Rollie, it's gonna be COLD down there tonight!!! Make sure you bring all your plants & animals inside (and any small children you may have :-)). It's cold here too, but we're used to it.

Jason234

12-14-2004, 04:04 PM

That's just about the funniest thing i've heard, how many plants do they think are still alive after Ivan and Bonnie came thru?

LI Phil

12-14-2004, 04:06 PM

That's just about the funniest thing i've heard, how many plants do they think are still alive after Ivan and Bonnie came thru?
Dude, they didn't have a nuclear blast...anyways, I meant plants in containers that can be moved, not trees and shit.

Jason234

12-14-2004, 04:35 PM

180 mph gust, can do some damage though, no?

ROLLTIDE

12-15-2004, 09:25 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
320 Am Cst Wed Dec 15 2004

.short Term...freezing Temps Noted Area Wide This Morning From Mid
30s Well Inland To Around 30 Along The Coast. Will Continue The
Freeze Warnings Thru Mid Morning. Not Expecting A Hard Freeze Tonight
Although Many Inland Areas Will See Mid 20s Again...just Not For 5
Hours Or More. The Cold Dome Of High Pressure Responsible For The
Cold Temps Will Slip Eastward On Thursday. Although Return Moisture
Is Questionable...latest Gfs And Eta Are Bringing A Chance Of Rain To
The Area On Friday...then Pushing This System East Early Saturday.
Thickness Values Suggest A Few Flurries Might Be Possible Far Inland
Late Thursday Night-early Friday Morning With Cold Air Still In Place
As A Vigorous Upper Disturbance And Associated Moisture Push In From
The West-southwest. However...have Little Confidence In The Cold
Temps And There Would Be No Accumulation Anyway...so Will Just Keep
An Eye Out On This Potential For Now.

&&

.extended...another Very Cold Dome Of High Pressure Will Begin To
Settle In Over The Region Over The Weekend. Looks Like Another Hard
Freeze Situation By Sunday Night As Latest Guidance Plummets Area
Lows Into The Teens Early Monday Morning. Cold/dry Conditions
Prevail Thru Tuesday...then Next Rain Chances Return By Wednesday
Next Week.

&&

.marine...winds And Seas Warrant A Small Craft Advisory (sca) This
Morning...then Tapering Off This Afternoon As High Pressure Settles
Over The South. However...the Resulting Easterly Fetch Will Result
In Exercise Caution Conditions Offshore Tonight. Behind Friday's
Weather System...a Northwest Flow By Saturday Afternoon Will
Gradually Increase On Sunday And Could Push Winds To Gale Force By
Late Sunday Thru Monday Morning...mainly Offshore.

&&

.fire...dry High Pressure Will Continue To Lower Daytime Rh Values
Below Critical Thresholds This Afternoon. Therefore A Red Flag
Warning Will Remain Posted For Today. Rh Values Rebound A Bit On
Thursday And Appears A Warning Will Not Be Necessary...however Will
Continue With Thursday's Fire Weather Watch And Let Day-shift Drop
It If Conditions Warrant.

&&

.preliminary Temps / Pops...
Mobile 52 30 57 42 / 00 00 10 20
Pensacola 52 34 58 43 / 00 00 10 20
Destin 52 35 59 45 / 00 00 10 10
Evergreen 50 23 57 33 / 00 00 10 10
Waynesboro 51 23 59 35 / 00 00 10 20
Camden 50 25 55 32 / 00 00 10 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...small Craft Advisory In Effect Today Gmz630-650-670.
Freeze Warning This Morning Alz063-064.
Hard Freeze Warning This Morning Alz051>062.
Fl...small Craft Advisory In Effect Today Gmz655-675.
Red Flag Warning This Afternoon Thru 6 Pm Flz001>006-008.
Fire Weather Watch 11 Am To 5 Pm Thursday Flz001>006-008.
Freeze Warning This Morning Flz002-004-006.
Hard Freeze Warning This Morning Flz001-003-005.
Ms...hard Freeze Warning This Morning Msz067-075-076-078-079.

&&
$$

39/32

SouthALtan

12-20-2004, 07:56 PM

Hey Guys

So what do you think? I've been looking at Bufkit, using GFS and the forecast sounding is below freezing starting at 0Z the 24th, and remains below freezing until 18Z on the 26th. The questions are will there be enough moisture in the air and will the low pressure be in the right place... Ahh the possibilites, I'm not going to get my hopes up.

Can't wait til I send this ob out or an ob like it.... KMOB 240156Z 35015KT 5SM -SN M02/M04 A3015 RMK RAE0125SNB0125 A02 SLP105 T100221041

daru1

12-20-2004, 09:51 PM

I hope like hell that visibility isn't 5, a good 1½ would be nice with -SN, those are some nice sized flakes :-D

ROLLTIDE

12-23-2004, 03:08 PM

National Weather Service Mobile Al
300 Pm Cst Thu Dec 23 2004

.short Term...(tonight Through Sunday) Saw A Few Flurries Across
Inland Areas Today. Big Problem This Forecast Is Will We See Snow.
Snow And Rain Mixed. Snow...sleet And Rain Mixed Or Nothing. Gfs
Has Been Very Consistent The Past Few Runs Of Developing An Area Of
Low Pressure Off The Texas Coast And Moving It East Across The
Gulf. This Looks Reasonable As 500h Trough Over Old Mexico Will
Slowly Push East Through Saturday. With Cold Air Already In Place
Across Cwa...any Precipitation That May Fall Would Do So As Sleet Or
Snow. With This Scenario Expect The Following Things To Occur
Across The Cwa. Expect Clouds And Precipitation To Spread Along The
Coastal Areas Friday Morning. The Area Of Precipitation Will Remain
Primarily Along The Coastal Areas With A Mix Of Sleet Or Snow Friday
Morning. The Precipitation Will Change Over To Rain During The
Afternoon As Temperatures Warm Into The 40s. Any Precipitation That
Is Falling Will Change Back Over To A Mix Of Sleet And Snow Friday
Night. There Will Still Be A Slight Chance Of Precipitation
Saturday Just Offshore As The 500h Trough Moves Closer To Cwa. With
All Of This Said...chances Of Precipitation Will Only Be About 30
Percent And We Are Expecting Little If Any Accumulation. If The
Surface Low Tracks Farther Offshore...we Would Just See Clouds Along
The Coastal Areas. If The Low Tracks Nearer The Coast...the Area Of
Mixed Precipitation Would Extend Farther Inland. The 500h Trough
Finally Moves Through The Cwa By Sunday With Clearing Skies.
Coldest Night For The Next Few Days Will Be Friday Night With A Hard
Freeze Possible Across The Inland Areas. Will Issue A Hard Freeze
Watch For Friday Night For The Inland Areas North Of The Coastal
Area.

Note: We Can Expect Snow To Fall About Once Every Four Years
Across The Area. The Last Snowfall In Mobile Was January 12 2003
And In Pensacola January 3 2002. Both Of These Snowfalls Were Only
A Trace. At Least It Feels A Lot Like Christmas.

&&

.extended... (monday Through Thursday) Made Very Little Changes To
Extended. We Will Slowly Warmup Through The Extended With Surface
High Ridged Across Area From The Northeast Through Mid Week. East
And Southeast Winds Will Slowly Increase The Moisture Levels And
Will Have A Slight Chance Of Showers Returning Late In The Extended.

&&

.marine...will Leave Small Craft Up. Winds Will Not Subside
Until Sunday. Winds Could Be Higher In The 20 To 60 Mile Offshore
Leg Depending On Track Of Low Moving Across The Gulf Of Mexico.
Winds Will Become More Easterly Late In The Period As Surface High
Moves East Of Cwa.

&&

.fire...breezy Across The Fire Zones Next Few Days But Cooler
Temperatures Will Make It Difficult To Get The Surface Humidity Low
Enough For Watch Or Warnings.

&&

.preliminary Temps / Pops...

Mobile 27 40 23 45 / 10 30 20 10
Pensacola 29 44 26 48 / 10 30 20 10
Destin 35 48 32 49 / 10 30 20 10
Evergreen 24 40 20 43 / 10 20 20 10
Waynesboro 23 39 18 43 / 10 10 10 10
Camden 23 39 21 42 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...sca Gmz630-650-670. Hard Freeze Watch Alz051>062.
Fl...sca Gmz655-675. Hard Freeze Watch Flz001-003-005.
Ms...hard Freeze Watch Msz067-075-076-078-

IL_Greg

12-28-2004, 09:10 PM

Lows in the 30s...same as up here in St Louis. Except up here, that's about 10 degrees above normal for the end of December. That warm air is feeding very nicely right up the Mississippi valley.

ROLLTIDE

01-03-2005, 09:36 AM

From 35 last weekened to 75 yesterday :(

Alex

01-07-2005, 08:18 PM

Has it even been below 40 yet this month in Mobile? Those 70s are pretty consistent considering that it's January!

ROLLTIDE

01-07-2005, 08:19 PM

Nope it hasn't . Things will change on friday with a quick shot of artic air then back the 70's

Alex

01-10-2005, 02:08 AM

The Pinneaple Express continues to deluge the San Diego area and our flood watch continues til Tuesday. Keep your eyes open for some weather from this come sometime this week. We have enough pop to get a thunderstorm as I type this in San Diego (a place with 0-5 thunder days a year no less)...

ROLLTIDE

01-13-2005, 03:41 PM

http://wp.myweather.net/wp/maps/wlox_infrad.jpg
http://209.16.73.99/radar/doppler.jpg

ROLLTIDE

05-31-2005, 09:28 PM

Hail Now :)

ROLLTIDE

06-08-2005, 11:17 AM

Long Term...thursday Through Tuesday...by Thu Broad Area Of Low
Pressure At The Sfc Over The Western Carib Begins To Move Northward
Through The Yucatan Channel Into The Se Gulf As Per Latest
Gfs...ukmet And Ecmf Solutions While The Canadian Brings The System
Over Cuba Then Into The Se Gulf/fl Straits. One Concern With The
Canadian Is The Lack Of High Pressure In The Lower To Mid Levels
East Of The Low Over Western Atlantic And Fl Pen. With This Will
Have To Lean More Towards The Gfs/ukmet Solutions Due To Better
Ridging To The East. By Fri If The Low Does Gen Up As The Models
Depict Gusty Winds Up To 30 Knots Will Be Likely Along The Immediate
Coast By Fri Eve Moving Inland Fri Night And Sat. Current Gfs Shows
A Large Swath Of Tropical Moisture With This System Moving Inland
And Affecting Much Of The Cwfa Fri Night And Sat Also...though Will
Hold Off With Categorical Pops For This Time Frame For Now. With
Extra Clouds And Moisture Advecting In From The Se Will Hold Temps
To Near Mos Guidance Of Slightly Below Especially Near The Coast In
The Extended Pds Mentioned Above...continuing Through Mon. Stay
Tuned For Further Updates From This Office And The Tropical
Prediction Center As This System Evolves And Becomes Better
Developed Late In The Week./32

&&

.marine...have Not Changed Much To The Ongoing Marine Forecast Due
To The Uncertainty With The Low Pressure That The Models Are Moving
South Of The Area By The Weekend. Will Break The 20 To 60 Nm Out And
Increase The Winds A Bit For Late Week And Early Weekend. The
Nam/dgex And Gfs Along With The Ukmet/ecmwf And Canadian All Show A
Low Of Varying Strength And Position Somewhere In The Gulf Later In
The Week. Winds Should Remain East To Southeast As The Low Moves
Southwest Of Forecast Area. /11

ROLLTIDE

06-08-2005, 01:22 PM

Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 73. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 85. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 85. East wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Low around 77. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Alabamaboy

07-05-2005, 04:50 PM

Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

ALZ061-062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ075-076-078-079-061100-
BALDWIN INLAND-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE INLAND-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...CITRONELLE...CRESTVIEW...
LEAKESVILLE...LUCEDALE...NEW AUGUSTA...WALNUT HILL...WIGGINS
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...STONE...GEORGE...GREENE...AND PERRY.

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES.

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA
AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...THOSE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS BECOME STRONGER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
LATE TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM CINDY WILL MOVE JUST WEST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI BY 6 AM
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CINDY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED JUST INLAND OF THE COAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA IN NUMEROUS SQUALLS.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CINDY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PORTIONS OF
STONE...GEORGE...PERRY AND GREENE COUNTIES OF MISSISSIPPI.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN LARGE LIMBS AND
TREES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WEAKENED BY DISEASE AND PREVIOUS STORMS.
POWER LINES CAN ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS TRASH
CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND ORNAMENTAL PLANTS ARE ALSO AT RISK TO BE
BLOWN AROUND. IN ADDITION...WEAKENED ROOFS THAT SUFFERED DAMAGE
DURING IVAN COULD BE BLOWN OFF HOUSES. DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...
TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
DANGER OF THESE WINDS.

ROLLTIDE

07-07-2005, 07:42 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
423 Am Cdt Thu Jul 7 2005

...hurricane Dennis Forecast Into The Gulf This Weekend...
...dennis Is Forecast To Become A Major Hurricane...

.synopsis...weather Map This Morning Shows That The Remnant Low Of
Cindy Has Merged With A Stalled Frontal Zone...northwest Of Atlanta
Georgia. A Trailing Trof Of Low Pressure From The Low Extends Back
Into The Forecast Area. Meanwhile...hurricane Dennis Was Southeast Of
Jamaica Churning West Northwestward Across The Caribbean.

&&

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...relatively Cool And Dry Boundary
Layer Conditions Exist Across The Forecast In The Wake Of T.s.
Cindy. Northwest Flow Prevails Up To 6kt Ft...advecting Dry Air Into
Southeast Mississippi And Southwest Alabama. Stratus Cloud Deck With
A Base Around 1000 Ft Across The Northeast Portions Of The Forecast
Area Continues To Lift To The Northeast. Some Clouds Will Linger
Early This Morning...but Clear The Cwa By Noon. The Nam Model Is
Over Forecasting The Amount Of Available Moisture In The Low
Levels...so Therefore Did Not Jump On The Higher (scattered)
Precipitation Chances For Today. Gfs Seems Reasonable With Late
Afternoon/early Evening High Based Isolated Showers. Deep Convection
Should Be Limited So Left Thunder Out. Various Model Temperature
Guidance Similar For Today With Highs Generally In The Upper 80s.
Went With The Cooler Gfs Guidance For Tonight As Surface Dewpoints
Will Not Have Recovered By Then. /22

Friday...a Weakness In The Upper Atmosphere Looks To Hang Around
The Forecast Area And May See A Small Recovery Of Deep Layer
Moisture To Go With Small Coverages Of Daytime Showers And
Thunderstorms. /10

.long Term...with Each Shift...we Are Becoming Increasingly
Concerned On The Forecast Track Of Dennis. As Dennis Emerges
Into The Gulf Of Mexico Early In The Weekend...dennis Looks To Be A
Major Hurricane Churning Over The Warm Oceanic Waters Of The Gulf Of
Mexico Within A Low Shear Environment. The Forecast From The Tropical
Prediction Center Is Calling For Dennis To Begin Taking On More Of A
Poleward Curve Saturday...around An Upper Ridge Of High Pressure That
Will Be Positioned Over The Southeast U.s. This Takes The Track Into
The North Central Gulf States Late In The Weekend Into Early Monday.
If The Forecast Holds...this Will Be Potentially The 2nd Major
Hurricane To Impact The Area In Less Than A Year. /10

Of Note...in The Extended Outlook For Tropical Cyclones. Errors For
Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nautical Miles On Day 4 And 325
Nautical Miles On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Knots Each Day.
Thus...it Is Not Important To Focus Solely On A Fixed Point...but For
A Larger Threat Cone. Best Course Of Action Right Now Is To Review
Hurricane Preparedness Plans And To Stay Up To Date On The Latest
Information From The Tropical Prediction Center. /10

&&

.marine...a Light Northwest Flow Will Turn To The Southwest By Late
Afternoon With The Aid Of Land Surface Heating. Winds Will Turn
Offshore Again Tonight As High Pressure Builds In From The North.
Pressure Gradient Begins To Tighten Between The High Pressure And
The National Hurricane Centers Prediction Of Approaching Hurricane
Dennis. Will Bring Up Winds And Seas Accordingly Over The Weekend...
And Just Mention Hurricane Conditions Possible In The Extended. /22

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns. /10

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 89 73 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Pensacola 89 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
Destin 88 77 91 77 / 10 10 20 10
Evergreen 89 68 93 71 / 10 10 30 10
Waynesboro 90 69 93 70 / 10 20 30 10
Camden 89 68 93 71 / 10 20 30 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...none.
Fl...none.
Ms...none.

ROLLTIDE

07-08-2005, 05:32 PM

Hurricane Local Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
517 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 8 2005

...a Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Alabama And Northwest
Florida Gulf Coasts...

...hurricane Dennis Will Move Into The Southeast Gulf This Evening
And Take Aim On The North Central Gulf Coast...

...areas Affected...
This Statement Recommends Specific Actions To Be Taken By Residents
Of The Coastal Counties Of Southwest Alabama And Northwest Florida.

...watches/warnings...
A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Coastal Areas Of Mobile And
Baldwin Counties Of Southwest Alabama...as Well As Escambia...santa
Rosa...and Okaloosa Counties In The Extreme Western Florida
Panhandle.

A Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through Sunday Night For
Southwest Alabama...extreme Southeast Mississippi And The Extreme
Western Florida Panhandle.

...storm Information...
At 4 Pm Cdt...the Center Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located Near
Latitude 22.6 North...longitude 81.1 West Or About 145 Miles South-
Southeast Of Key West Florida. Dennis Is Moving To The Northwest
Near 17 Mph With Maximum Sustained Winds Near 135 Mph With Higher
Gusts. Dennis Is Expected To Move Across The North Central Gulf
Coast...possibly The Extreme Northwest Florida Panhandle Or Alabama
Coasts...on Sunday As A Dangerous Category Three Hurricane.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...
Shelters Are Being Opened In Some Areas Tonight...with Mandatory
Evacuations Possible On Saturday. Listen To Local Radio And Tv For
Specific Actions To Be Taken In Your Area.

...storm Surge Flood And Storm Tide Impacts...
Astronomical High Tides Will Occur Near Noon On Sunday...and Combined
With The Surge From Dennis...could Result In A Storm Surge Between 10
And 14 Feet In And Near Where Dennis Makes Landfall. This Will
Result In Major Destruction Along Coastal Areas...similar To What
Hurricane Ivan Produced Last Year.

...wind Impacts...
Tropical Storm Force Winds Of 40 Mph Or Greater Will Begin To Affect
The Coastal Areas Early Sunday Morning...which Will Make Driving
Conditions Hazardous. Hurricane Force Winds...75 Mph Or Greater...
Will Begin To Affect The Area Around Midday Sunday And Persist
Through Sunday Afternoon And Evening. As Dennis Is Expected To Be
At Least A Category Three Hurricane With Winds Around 120 Mph...major
Structural Damage Is Likely With Dennis.

...rip Currents And Rainfall Amounts...
Dangerous Rip Currents Are Likely Saturday And Sunday Due To
Increasing Surf And Winds. People Are Discouraged From Swimming...
Surfing And Recreational Boating Until Dennis Moves Out Of The Area.

Rainfall Totals Of 5 To 10 Inches Are Possible As Dennis Makes
Landfall And Tracks Inland. Ground Conditions Are Still Fairly Moist
Due To Heavy Rainfall From Tropical Storm Cindy Earlier In The
Week...this Will Promote More Runoff And Result In A Dangerous Flash
Flood Situation As Dennis Moves Inland. If Flooding Is
Encountered...remember To Turn Around And Don't Drown.

...tornado Threat...
The Threat Of Tornadoes Will Be Increased As Dennis Approaches The
Coast And Moves Through The Area.

...next Update...
The Next Scheduled Tropical Storm Local Statement Will Be Issued
Around 1100 Pm.

Eversole/mckee

ROLLTIDE

07-08-2005, 10:55 PM

Alz061-062-flz001-003-005-091100-
Baldwin Inland-escambia Inland-mobile Inland-okaloosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Inland-
Including The Cities Of.bay Minette.citronelle.crestview.
Walnut Hill
1047 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 8 2005

.an Inland Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Inland Portions Of
The Al & Nw Fl Coastal Counties.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued An Inland
Hurricane Watch For The Following Counties.

In Sw Al The Inland Portions Of Mobile & Baldwin
Counties.

In Nw Fl The Inland Portions Of Escambia.santa Rosa
And Okaloosa Counties.

An Inland Hurricane Watch Is Issued When Hurricane Force Winds.
Of 74 Mph Or Greater.are Expected In The Watch Area Within The Next
36 Hrs.

At This Time.hurricane Dennis Is Expected To Push Into The
Extreme Southeastern Gulf Tonight.then Continue Tracking
Northwestward Across The Eastern Gulf Through Sun Afternoon. The
Latest Forecasts From The Natl Weather Svc Have Hurricane
Dennis Making Landfall Somewhere Near Pensacola Fl Around
4 Pm On Sunday.then Continuing Northwestward Into Southwest
Al.

Hurricane Force Winds Of 74 Mph Or Greater.will Begin To Affect
The Inland Portions Of Extreme Nw Fl By 3 Pm Sunday
Afternoon.then Inland Baldwin County By 5 Pm Sunday.with Tropical
Storm Force Winds Of 39 To 73 Mph Likely Further West Across
Inland Mobile County.

Remember.this Is A Dangerous Situation As Hurricane Dennis Is
Expected To Be A Category Three Hurricane With Winds Around 120 Mph
At Landfall.with Major Structural Damage Likely Across The Watch
Area.

$$

ROLLTIDE

07-09-2005, 06:15 AM

Alz061-062-flz001-003-005-091700-
Baldwin Inland-escambia Inland-mobile Inland-okaloosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Inland-
Including The Cities Of.bay Minette.citronelle.crestview.
Walnut Hill
420 Am Cdt Sat Jul 9 2005

.inland Hurricane Warning In Effect.

The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office In Mobile Has Issued An
Inland Hurricane Warning For The Following Counties.

In Sw Al.mobile & Baldwin Counties.

In Nw Fl.escambia.santa Rosa.& Okaloosa
Counties.

Hurricane Dennis.over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico.is
Forecast To Continue Moving Nw Reaching The N. Gulf
Of Mexico Tonight. The Center Of Hurricane Dennis Is Expected To
Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Sun Afternoon. Dennis Will
Continue Moving To The Northwest.deep Into The Interior Counties
Of So. Al & So. Ms Through The Evening Hrs.

Based On The Latest Official Forecast Track.hurricane Force
Winds On The No. Side Of Dennis.those Winds Of 74 Mph Or
Greater.are Forecast To Begin Spreading Inland Across The Coastal
Counties Around Noon Sunday.

This Is Dangerous Situation. Hurricane Dennis Is Forecast To Be A
Category Three Hurricane At Landfall With Winds Around 120 Mph.
While Some Weakening Can Be Expected To Occur After Landfall.
Hurricane Force Winds Around The Center Of Dennis Will Move Well
Inland After Landfall.

While Some Uncertainty Still Remains With The Exact Track.timing.
And Strength Of Hurricane Dennis By Landfall.major Structural
Damage Will Occur Where Dennis Moves Ashore. This Damage Will Extend
Not Only Along The Coast.but Inland As Well.

Today Is The Last Day To Prepare For The Hurricane Force Winds
Expected On Sunday. The Weather Conditions On Sun Will
Begin Deteriorating Quickly. Preparedness Measures Should Be Well
Underway At This Time.& Should Be Completed By This Evening.

Later Forecasts Will Better Define The Eventual Track Of
Hurricane Dennis. Stay Tuned For Later Statements & Updates From
The Natl Weather Svc.

$$

Alz052-053-055>060-msz067-075-076-078-079-091700-
Butler-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-george-greene-
Monroe-perry-stone-wa-wayne-
Including The Cities Of.andalusia.brewton.chatom.evergreen.
Greenville.grove Hill.leakesville.lucedale.luverne.
Monroeville.new Augusta.waynesboro.wiggins
420 Am Cdt Sat Jul 9 2005

.inland Hurricane Watch In Effect.

The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office In Mobile Has Issued An
Inland Hurricane Watch For The Following Counties.

In Se Ms.stone.george.perry.greene & Wayne
Counties.

In So. Al.this Hurricane Watch Includes Wa.
Choctaw.clarke.wilcox.butler.crenshaw.conecuh.monr oe.
Covington.& Escambia Counties.

Hurricane Dennis.over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Today.is
Forecast To Continue Moving Nw Reaching The N. Gulf
Of Mexico Tonight. The Center Of Hurricane Dennis Is Expected To
Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Sun Afternoon. Dennis Will
Continue Moving To The Nw Across The Interior Counties Of
South Al & So. Ms Through The Evening Hrs On
Sunday.

Based On The Latest Official Forecast Track.hurricane Force
Winds.those Winds Of 74 Mph Or Greater.are Forecast To Begin
Affecting The Inland Counties Just No. Of The Coast By Late Sunday
Afternoon.spreading Farther Inland Across The Interior Counties Of
South Ms & So. Al During The Evening Hrs On
Sunday.

This Is A Potentially Dangerous Situation. Hurricane Dennis Is
Currently Forecast To Be A Category Three Hurricane At Landfall With
Winds Around 120 Mph. While Some Weakening Can Be Expected To Occur
After Landfall.hurricane Force Winds Around The Center Of Dennis
Will Move Well Inland After Landfall.

While Some Uncertainty Still Remains With The Exact Track.
Timing.& Strength Of Hurricane Dennis By Landfall.major
Structural Damage Will Occur Where Dennis Moves Ashore. This Damage
Will Extend Not Only Along The Coast.but Inland As Well Across The
Interior Counties Of So. Ms & So. Al.

Today Is The Last Full Day To Prepare For The Potential Of Hurricane
Force Winds Expected Sun Night. The Weather Conditions Across
South Ms & So. Al During The Day Sun Will Begin
Deteriorating. Preparedness Measures Should Be Underway At This
Time.& Should Be Completed By Tonight.

Later Forecasts Will Better Define The Eventual Track Of Dennis.
Stay Tuned For Later Forecasts & Possible Warnings From The
Natl Weather Svc.

$$

Alz051-054-091700-
Choctaw-wilcox-
Including The Cities Of.butler.camden
420 Am Cdt Sat Jul 9 2005

.inland Tropical Storm Watch In Effect.

The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office In Mobile Has Issued An
Inland Tropical Storm Watch For The Following Counties.

In So. Al.choctaw & Wilcox Counties.

Hurricane Dennis.over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Today.is
Forecast To Continue Moving To The Northwest.reaching The Northern
Gulf Of Mexico Tonight. The Center Of Hurricane Dennis Is Expected
To Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Sun Afternoon. Dennis Will
Continue Moving To The Nw Across The Interior Counties Of
South Al & So. Ms Through The Evening Hrs On
Sunday.

Based On The Latest Official Forecast Track.tropical Storm Force
Winds.those Winds Of 39 Mph To 73 Mph.are Forecast To Begin
Affecting Portions Of Choctaw & Wilcox Counties In The Afternoon
Hrs On Sunday. As Dennis Moves Inland.it Is Forecast To Weaken
To A Tropical Storm As It Moves Into The Butler.camden Areas.
Even Though Dennis Will Be Weakening.gusty Winds Of 50 To 70 Mph
May Occur Over Portions Of Choctaw & Wilcox Counties In The Mid
To Late Evening Hrs Sun As The Center Of Dennis Moves Through.

While Some Uncertainty Still Remains With The Exact Track.
Timing.& Strength Of Dennis After Landfall.structural
Damage Will Occur Along The Track Of Dennis. Should It Appear In
Later Forecasts That Dennis Will Stay At Hurricane Status Longer Than
Expected After Landfall.this Inland Tropical Storm Watch May Be
Upgraded To An Inland Hurricane Watch Or Warning.

Today Is The Last Full Day To Prepare For The Potential Of
Tropical Storm Force Winds Sun Afternoon Into Sun Night.
The Weather Conditions Across So. Al During The Day Sunday
Will Begin Deteriorating. Preparedness Measures Should Be Underway
At This Time.& Should Be Completed By Tonight.

Later Forecasts Will Better Define The Eventual Track Of Dennis.
Stay Tuned For Later Forecasts & Possible Warnings From The
Natl Weather Svc.

$$

mgreen

07-09-2005, 11:14 AM

For live pictures from web cam updated regularly of Mobile Bay, check out the below website:

http://flhurricane.com/jjohnston/

The web cam is located at top of a building in downtown Mobile.

ROLLTIDE

07-17-2005, 05:32 AM

Coastal Flood Watch
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
251 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-171600-
BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
251 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE SHORES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILY WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
MONDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS FROM EMILY WILL GENERATE WAVES OF A VERY
LONG PERIOD BETWEEN CRESTS WHICH WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND RESULT IN HEAVY SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN EROSION OF BEACH
AREAS...INCLUDING THOSE ALREADY DAMAGED BY HURRICANE DENNIS.

TIDAL LEVELS OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE...BUT TIDAL LEVELS WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACH AREAS. SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE
LARGEST WAVES CHANGE...THIS COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION WILL WORSEN.

REMEMBER...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO SAFE
GROUND AND PROTECT PROPERTY IF FLOODING OCCURS OR IF WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

EVERSOLE

$$

ROLLTIDE

07-18-2005, 12:05 PM

Coastal Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1155 Am Cdt Mon Jul 18 2005

Baldwin Coastal-escambia Coastal-mobile Coastal-okaloosa Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-
1155 Am Cdt Mon Jul 18 2005

...a Coastal Flood Watch Has Been Upgraded To A Coastal Flood
Warning For This Afternoon And Tonight...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A Coastal Flood
Warning For People Living Along The Gulf Coastlines Of Mobile And
Baldwin Counties In Southwest Alabama And Escambia...santa Rosa And
Okaloosa Counties In The Western Florida Panhandle.

Hurricane Emily Has Moved Across The Yucatan Peninsula And Into The
Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico. The Very Strong Winds Associated With
Emily Have Generated Waves Of A Very Long Period Between Crests.
Buoy Data From The Southern Gulf Are Indicating Wave Periods Of Up
14 Seconds. These Long Period Waves Will Travel Northward Across
The Gulf And Result In Heavy Surf And Possible Coastal Flooding
Along Area Beaches Late This Afternoon And This Evening. At This
Time...we Expect The Larger Waves To Begin Arriving At The Beaches
As Early As 500 Pm This Afternoon...and Continue Impacting The
Beaches Through The Evening Hours. These Large Waves Will Also
Likely Result In Further Erosion Of Beaches...including Those Areas
Previously Damaged By Hurricane Dennis A Week Or So Ago...and By
Tropical Storms Arlene And Cindy Earlier This Summer.

The West End Of Dauphin Island Alabama Will Be Particularly
Vulnerable To Coastal Flooding. Local Experience Has Shown That A
Wave Period Of 11 Seconds Or Greater Can Result In Heavy Surf And
Wash-over On The West End Of The Island...with Water Under Homes On
The West End. Along The Florida Panhandle Coastline...heavy Surf
Should Be Expected This Afternoon And Evening...but There Is No
Precedent For Extensive Coastal Flooding With This Type Of Event.
However...with The Beaches Severely Eroded As A Result Of All The
Recent Tropical Activity...some Minor Coastal Flooding Could Be
Possible Late This Afternoon And Tonight On Parts Of Santa Rosa
Island...especially Between Fort Pickens And Navarre Beach...where
We Would Expect Heavy Surf And Some Wash-up Under Homes In Areas
That Had Beaches Eroded By Dennis. At The Very Least...heavy Surf
Should Be Expected Along All Of The Alabama And Florida Coastlines
From Late This Afternoon And Into The Evening Hours...with Tide
Levels Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Astronomical Tides Expected. In
Addition...the Rip Current Threat Will Increase This Afternoon Due
To The Large Swells Moving Northward Toward Area Beaches.

Remember...a Coastal Flood Warning Means Coastal Flooding Is Likely.
Residents Living Along Coastal Areas Should Be Ready To Move To Safe
Ground And Protect Property If Flooding Occurs.

Stay Tuned For Additional Statements And Possible Warnings From The
National Weather Service.

ROLLTIDE

07-24-2005, 11:12 AM

Heat Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241800-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...BAY MINETTE...BREWTON...
BUTLER...CAMDEN...CHATOM...CITRONELLE...CRESTVIEW. ..EVERGREEN...
FORT WALTON BEACH...GREENVILLE...GROVE HILL...GULF SHORES...
LEAKESVILLE...LUCEDALE...LUVERNE...MILTON...MOBILE ...MONROEVILLE...
NEW AUGUSTA...PENSACOLA...WALNUT HILL...WAYNESBORO...WIGGINS
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A PORTION OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES...COMBINED
WITH A HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 107 TO NEAR 114 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL STILL RISE INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE. URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER STILL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAKING FOR AN EVEN MORE DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS SITUATION.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...
WITH LOWS TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

SLOW DOWN AND TAKE YOUR TIME TODAY AND MONDAY. TRY TO SPEND MORE
TIME IN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES. STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
REDUCED...ELIMINATED OR RESCHEDULED TO THE COOLEST TIME OF THE
DAY...WHICH IS USUALLY BETWEEN 400 AM AND 700 AM. STAY INDOORS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF AIR CONDITIONING IS NOT AVAILABLE...STAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...OUT OF THE SUNSHINE. ALSO...TRY TO GO TO A
PUBLIC BUILDING WITH AIR CONDITIONING EACH DAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
REMEMBER...ELECTRIC FANS DO NOT COOL THE AIR...BUT THEY DO HELP
SWEAT EVAPORATE...WHICH COOLS YOUR BODY.

WATER IS THE SAFEST LIQUID TO DRINK DURING HEAT EMERGENCIES. AVOID
DRINKS WITH ALCOHOL OR CAFFEINE IN THEM. THEY CAN MAKE YOU FEEL GOOD
BRIEFLY...BUT MAKE THE HEATS EFFECTS ON YOUR BODY WORSE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE ABOUT BEER...WHICH DEHYDRATES THE BODY.

NEVER LEAVE ANYONE IN AN UN-AIRCONDITIONED CAR WITH THE WINDOWS
UP...TEMPERATURES INSIDE A CAR WITH THE WINDOWS UP CAN REACH OVER 150
DEGREES QUICKLY...AND CAN RESULT IN HEAT STROKE AND/OR DEATH.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHENEVER HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT LEAST 107 DEGREES FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE...AND WHEN OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ROLLTIDE

08-03-2005, 06:44 AM

Today: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 86. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 72. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. North wind around 5 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 74.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

ROLLTIDE

08-17-2005, 06:56 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds, with a high around 92. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 75. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low near 76. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 95. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

ROLLTIDE

08-20-2005, 11:30 AM

Afternoon heat indices expected to rise to between 105 to 110
degrees both today and Sunday...

High pressure... both at the surface and aloft... will result in large
scale subsidence... or sinking of air... over the area today. As this
subsidence occurs... the airmass will compress and heat up. This...
combined with the partly cloudy skies and afternoon sunshine... will
allow high temperatures to climb into the middle 90s in most
locations this afternoon. A few interior locations may see the upper
90s today... while immediate coastal locations will likely see
temperatures only in the lower 90s this afternoon. These
temperatures... combined with the relative humidity... will result in
afternoon heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees today. A weak surface
trough will begin to work south into the region by late Sunday... but
with high pressure continuing aloft... similar hot conditions are
expected Sunday afternoon as well.

Slow down and take your time today. Try to spend more time in
air-conditioned places. Strenuous activities should be reduced...
eliminated or rescheduled to the cooler time of the day. If air
conditioning is not available... stay on the lowest floor... out of
the sunshine. Remember... while electric fans do not cool the air...
they do help sweat to evaporate... which cools your body.

Water is the safest liquid to drink during periods of extreme heat.
One should avoid drinks with alcohol or caffeine in them. While
these drinks can provide some brief relief... they actually accent the
affects of heat on your body.

Never leave a person or a animal in a vehicle with the windows up
and no air conditioning. Temperatures inside the vehicle can reach
over 150 degrees quickly... and can result in heat stroke and/or
death.

ROLLTIDE

08-21-2005, 07:45 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 96. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low near 77. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly cloudy, with a high around 93. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 92. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Calm wind.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 91. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90.

ROLLTIDE

08-24-2005, 06:38 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240846
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...SAME OLE STUFF...DIFFERENT
DAY...WITH HOT...HUMID WEATHER. THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLETIES...THOUGH...IN
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS THAT NEED TO BE DEALT WITH. THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF ME...ANOTHER OVER THE
MT/ID/CA BORDER...WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN (STRETCHING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO CA). HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH THE COMPUTER ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TX. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP COMBINED
WITH THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE ANALYZED
TO DAR WEST. FEEL CENTER OF RIDGE SHOULD BE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN
MS/AL. TD12 WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CIRCULATION
AROUND UPPER HIGH OVER/NEAR THE FA.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE A USUAL SUMMER WET SPONGE...THOUGH THE SPONGE
HAS DRIED OUT A BIT...WITH NEIGHBORING STATIONS GENERALLY REPORTING
1.9"-2.0" OF PRECIP H20. TAE REPORTED 2.1"...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A
NEARBY TSRA MOISTENED THE PROFILE UP. A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AT 00Z
SHOWED A BAND OF DRIER AIR AIR (1.5"-1.7") STRETCHING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING VORT LOBE
SWINGING SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW...
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD A BIT. NORTHWEST LOW
GETS DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY
...HELPING TO RIDGE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MAIN RIDGE AND SHIFT IT
EAST...EVENTUALLY COMBINING WITH EAST COAST TROUGH AND SHOVING UPPER
RIDGE WESTWARD...TO OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS...AM TENDING TOWARDS THE
ETA SOLUTION. GFS HAS PROVEN TO BE TOO WET THE LAST DAY OR SO.

MODELS ALSO ADVERTISING TD12 GETTING CAUGHT UP IN EAST COAST TROUGH
AND MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WHAT LITTLE HURRICANE MODEL
GUIDANCE WE GET IN THE OFFICE IS ADVERTISING TD12 MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH QUICKLY BEFORE HEADING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF. AM
TENDING TO BELIEVE THE STALLING SCENARIO...WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF
MOVEMENT ON THE 8HR LENGTH WATER VAPOR LOOP. ITS GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE LONGER TO SEE WHAT MOVEMENT TD12 DECIDES TO TAKE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ADVERTISING EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING WEST A BIT AS CURRENT
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SLOP IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE OPERATION GFS
TRANSITIONING FROM THE WETTEST SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM...TO ONE OF
THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED. WITH THIS SLOP...AM TENDING TO
USE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A STARTING POINT...TWEAKING FROM THERE.

&&

.MARINE...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS COAST BY NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF...AS T.D. 12 IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
A TROPICAL STORM. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO A MODERATE
FLOW. WILL ALSO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS...MAINLY SWELLS...ACROSS THE
MARINE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS...
THOUGH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP THE
DISPERSIONS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. ALSO...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 93 75 92 76 92 / 40 20 50 30 40
PENSACOLA 93 77 91 76 91 / 40 30 60 40 30
DESTIN 91 77 89 76 90 / 40 30 60 30 30
EVERGREEN 93 72 91 71 90 / 50 20 60 30 20
WAYNESBORO 93 72 93 73 93 / 30 10 60 30 30
CAMDEN 94 71 93 71 91 / 50 20 70 30 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

08-25-2005, 07:28 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250846
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...CHANCE OF POPS IS THE BIGGEST
BEAR IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE PATH OF KATRINA A PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED.

CURRENTLY...THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY STRETCHED NORTH TO HUDSON BAY...AND EAST/WEST TO
BERMUDA/BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER RIDGE. TROUGH
STRETCHED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO KATRINA...CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME. AM HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING OUT
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE USUAL SUMMER STEAMIES CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH
PRECIP H20 VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9"-2.2". WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHED NORTH OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. CAN SEE ANY
ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME...WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA OVER OFFSHORE AL/FL PANHANDLE WATERS...MOVING AROUND SOUTH
SIDE OF RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING
SOUTHCENTRAL CA LOW CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY EAST...ENDING UP
SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NEW ENGLAND
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST...WITH EAST
COAST TROUGH MERGING WITH WESTERN LOW BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS GETS SQUEEZED WEST...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING RIDGE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY.

ETA/GFS HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES. GFS SPREADS THE LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER
INLAND TODAY...BUT BOTH HAVE MOST OF THE FA UNDER LIKELY POPS. CAN`T
ARGUE WITH THIS CONSENSUS...THOUGH AM LESS CONFIDENT DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY`S MODELS ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS AND GETTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL COUNTIES. POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS
THE FA BECOMES MORE AND MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST SIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MODELS NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE DOWNWARD
TREND...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE EARLY IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES.

MOVING ON TO KATRINA...CURRENT FORECAST TAKES HER WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN NORTHWARD IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST FOR KATRINA HAS HER COMING BACK
ONSHORE ON THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR KAQQ LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST...THOUGH...DUE TO A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GOING INTO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT
OF EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OPERATION GFS THE DRIER/EST SOLUTIONS...SO BLENDED IN SOME
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO THE FORECAST TO PUT SOME CONSERVATISM INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WILL WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS KATRINA MOVES WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
EVERGLADES. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LOWS SEAS...AND
THEN WILL INCREASE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH BUILDING SEAS...MAINLY IN
SWELLS...OVER THE WEEKEND AS KATRINA MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
LATEST FORECAST PATH FROM NHC KEEPS CENTER OF KATRINA EAST OF MAR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN CWF
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 75 93 74 94 / 60 20 40 10 10
PENSACOLA 93 76 92 75 94 / 60 20 30 10 10
DESTIN 92 76 92 75 93 / 60 20 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 91 71 91 69 92 / 50 20 20 10 10
WAYNESBORO 94 72 94 71 95 / 50 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN 94 71 92 70 92 / 40 20 20 10 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-04-2005, 08:41 AM

Today...Partly cloudy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon.

Tonight...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Labor Day...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows in the upper 60s.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

ROLLTIDE

09-05-2005, 08:26 AM

Today...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs around 90.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent.

ROLLTIDE

09-16-2005, 01:19 PM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1258 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 16 2005

Alz051>054-061-msz067-075-076-078-079-161900-
Choctaw-clarke-george-greene-mobile Inland-perry-stone-washington-
Wayne-wilcox-
1258 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 16 2005

.now...
National Weather Service Doppler Radar Shows The Leading Edge Of A
Broken Line Of Showers And Thunderstorms Extending From Near
Tuscaloosa Alabama...to Meridian Mississippi...to Mccomb Louisiana.
These Showers And Thunderstorms Are Moving To The East And Southeast
At 20 Mph. Thunderstorms Will Threaten Portions Of Perry...wayne And
Choctaw Counties By 200 Pm...then Portions Of Clarke...washington...
Greene And Stone Counties By 330 Pm. Although Widespread Severe
Storms Are Not Expected...a Few Storms Could Become Strong...
Producing Wind Gusts To Near 45 Mph...frequent Lightning...brief
Heavy Downpours And Possibly Some Small Hail. The Showers And
Thunderstorms Will Be Most Numerous Over Interior Southeast
Mississippi And Interior Southwest Alabama Through The Late Afternoon
Hours.

Stay Tuned For Further Updates From The National Weather Service.

ROLLTIDE

09-17-2005, 06:49 AM

National Weather Service Mobile Al
455 Am Cdt Sat Sep 17 2005

.short Term...
Water Vapor Imagery This Morning Shows An Upper Trough Moving Off To
The East Coast While Upper Ridge Is Located Over East Tx. A
Nearly Stationary Surface Front Will Be Very Slowly Sagging South
Through The Area Today. Most If Not All Guidance Breaks Out Some Qpf
In Vicinity Of The Front Across Central Ms/al This Aftn...thus
Expecting Some Scattered Development. Tstms Should Begin North And
West Of I-65 This Afternoon And Progress Se Before Dying Off This
Evening. Some Drier Air Will Work Its Way Into Central Al And Ms
Behind The Front Later On Tonight Into Sun. This In Combination With
Building Heights Should Bring The Precip Chcs To An End.

.long Term...
Upper Ridge Over Tx Will Expand Eastward To Encompass Much Of The
Southeast U.s. By Mon. Above Normal Temps With Highs In The Lower
To Mid 90s And Dry Weather Will Continue For Most Of The Area
Through The Upcoming Week.

As The Old Frontal Boundary Dissolves...n-ne Flow Around The High
Should Prevent Deeper Moisture From Working North Back Inland. The
Gfs Does Indicate Some Energy Rotating South Around The Upr High
Into Ga/fl By Thu. Thus Have Added Some Low Pops Across The Eastern
Counties For Thu And Fri For The Possibility This May Trigger Some
Tstm Activity. Otherwise...no Significant Changes Made To Grids With
This Package.

Other Feature To Watch Is A Easterly Wave That Moves Across Cuba
Into The Gulf Of Mexico On Mon. Indications Are That It Should Be
Directed Around The Southern Periphery Of The High With No Influence
On Our Wx.

&&

.marine...
A Weak Front Will Stall Over The Region Later Today Bringing A Light
North Wind Through Monday. Winds Will Become East And Seas Will
Gradually Build Later In The Week Than Previously Expected. That
Easterly Wave Mentioned Earlier Shift Will Transit West Across The
Southern Gulf...but More Slowly. Nonetheless The Wind Is Not
Expected To Exceed 15 To 20 Knot Range And Precip From This Feature
Should Remain Minimal.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 90 73 94 73 / 30 0 0 0
Pensacola 91 75 92 74 / 20 0 0 0
Destin 91 75 91 74 / 10 0 10 0
Evergreen 90 70 93 70 / 30 0 0 0
Waynesboro 90 69 94 69 / 40 0 0 0
Camden 87 70 91 70 / 30 10 0 0

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...none.
Fl...none.
Ms...none.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-19-2005, 07:18 AM

Long Term...thursday Through Monday
Rita Should Be Heading Into The Central Gulf By Thurs As A Major
Hurricane. Although The Forecast Track Takes It Well South Of The
Northern Gulf Shoreline...increasing Easterly Winds Will Begin To
Affect The Area...and Bring Deeper Moisture And A Better Chance For
Tstms...especially To Coastal Locations...thu Thru Sat. Temps Will
Also Be Dropping Closer To Average For Early Fall With A Stronger
Onshore Flow Component And Increased Cloud Cover. The Upper Ridge Is
Progged To Slowly Shift To The East And This May Cause Rita To Begin
Recurve To The North And Threaten Tx And Possibly La Heading Into
The Weekend. Have Decided To Shift The Higher Pops To The West Over
Our Ms Counties Beginning Late Friday In Case That Track Verifies.
Otherwise...only Minor Tweaks Made To The Extended Fcst.

ROLLTIDE

09-22-2005, 10:13 PM

Ldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland- 600 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

... A Coastal Flood Warning Remains In Effect For The Alabama Coastal Areas Of Mobile And Baldwin Counties Through Friday...

Powerful Hurricane Rita Continues To Generate Very Large Waves Propagating Northward From The Center Resulting In Higher Than Normal Tides And Dangerous Surf Conditions Along The Alabama Coast. Tides 3 To 5 Feet Above Mean High Water Are Likely (this Would Result In Total Storm Tide Heights Of 4 To 6 Feet). The Threat Of Coastal Flooding Will Increase Later Tonight As Most Areas Along The Alabama Coast And Mobile Bay Approach High Tide.

Local Police And Emergency Management Report Widespread Flooding Of Dauphin Island Where The Beached Oil Rig Is Located. From There That Road Is Closed To The West End Of Dauphin Island... And Is Expected To Close Progressively Eastward Throughout The Night.

All Those In Coastal Areas Should Take Immediate Action To Protect Life And Property And Be Ready To Move To Higher Ground. The Greatest Threat Of Coastal Flooding Will Be Over The West End Of Dauphin Island... The Mississippi Sound From Cedar Point To Bayou La Batre... And The Western Shores Of Mobile Bay. Other Areas Affected Will Include The Area Along Highway 182 West Of Gulf Shores... And Portions Of Highway 180 Across The Fort Morgan Peninsula.

Remember That Dangers Of Coastal Floods Increase At Night When It Can Be Very Difficult To See Rising Water. Be Especially Cautious After Dark For Coastal Flooding Whether You Observe It Or Even Suspect It. Act Quickly And Move Inland To Escape Flood Waters. Stay Away From The Coast As Water Can Begin Rising Very Fast.

Very Dangerous Rip Currents And Extensive Beach Erosion Will Also Occur With Higher Waves Hitting Shore.

Refer To The Latest Advisory From The National Hurricane Center Concerning Hurricane Rita.

ROLLTIDE

09-23-2005, 12:09 PM

Baldwin Coastal-mobile Coastal-
1048 Am Cdt Fri Sep 23 2005

...a Coastal Flood Warning Continues In Effect For The Coastal Areas Of Mobile And Baldwin Counties Through Today...

Powerful Hurricane Rita Continues To Generate Very Large Waves That Are Propagating Northward...resulting In Higher Than Normal Tides And Dangerous Surf Conditions Along The Alabama Coast. Tides Continue To Run 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Across The Alabama Coasts And This Will Result In A Total Storm Tide Height Of 3 To 5 Feet During High Tidal Periods Later Tonight. The Water Levels Will Begin To Increase Late This Afternoon And Early Evening...then Peak During The Early Saturday Morning Hours As Astronomical High Tide Approaches Around 2 Am Tonight. The Water Levels Are Expected To Gradually Subside Through Mid To Late Saturday Morning With The Approaching Low Tide And Diminishing Winds As Rita Makes Landfall Near The Texas And Louisiana State Line.

The Greatest Threat Of Coastal Flooding Will Be Over The West End Of Dauphin Island...the Mississippi Sound From Cedar Point To Bayou La Batre...and The Western Shores Of Mobile Bay...especially Along Highway 163 Near The Dog River Bridge And North End Of The Dauphin Island Bridge. Other Areas Affected Will Include The East Bound Lane Of The Causeway Across North Mobile Bay...areas Along Highway 182 West Of Gulf Shores...and Around Highway 180 Across The Fort Morgan Peninsula.

Remember That Dangers Of Coastal Floods Increase At Night When It Can Be Very Difficult To See Rising Water. Be Especially Cautious After Dark For Coastal Flooding Whether You Observe It Or Even Suspect It.
The Water Levels Will Increase Again After Dark Tonight.

Very Dangerous Rip Currents And Extensive Beach Erosion Will Continue.

Refer To The Latest Advisory From The National Hurricane Center Concerning Hurricane Rita.

ROLLTIDE

10-12-2005, 11:11 AM

test

ROLLTIDE

10-16-2005, 10:02 AM

We Can No Longer Ignore The Pink
Elephant Now Poised To Come Pouncing In At Stage Right. Tropical
Depression Number 24 Continues To Gather Strength Over The
Northwestern Caribbean...and Is Forecast By Nhc To Begin Making A
Gradual Turn To The North After 48 Hrs Making The Turn Around The
Southeastern Atlantic Ridge Toward A Developing Weakness Over The
Eastern Gulfmex By Day5. This Fits Closely With The 00z Gfs
Solution...so We Continue To Use The Gfs To Initialize The Forecast
Past Day4...essentially Passing The Tropical Cyclone Well To The
Southeast Of Our Area During The Day6-7 Time Frame (this Scenario
Fits Well With The Gem/ecmwf/gfs Consensus). We Continue With Small
Pops Across The Area Starting Late Friday Through Late
Saturday...but The Eventual Placement Of All The Players In This
Complex Scenario Will Likely Warrant Adjustments To The Forecast
Downrange...especially As The Track Of Td24 Becomes Better Known And
We Get A Better Handle On The Eventual Strength Of The Midlevel
Shortwave Approaching From The West Friday Into Saturday. Moisture
Levels Look Limited Over Much Of The Area Through Next Weekend...so
Rain Chances Dont Appear To Be Overly Significant

ROLLTIDE

10-17-2005, 05:10 AM

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM WILMA TIES THE RECORD FOR NUMBER OF NAMED
STORMS SINCE 1933 AND IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILMA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THE FORECAST IS
LEANING TOWARD A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...ALLOWING MORE OF A POLEWARD MOTION
TO WILMA INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IF THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST...WILMA COULD MAINTAIN MORE OF A
WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM WILMA...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB SITE
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR ADVISORIES...FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

ROLLTIDE

10-18-2005, 02:16 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
314 Am Cdt Tue Oct 18 2005

.short Term (today And Tonight)...a Surface Ridge Axis Remains Over
The Region Through Tonight With Dry Air Aloft Mixing Down To The
Surface Once Again. Clear Skies And Dry Weather Prevail Through
Tonight. /29

$$

.long Term...(wednesday Through Monday)...axis Of Surface High
Pressure Slips Eastward Into The Southeast U.s. Wednesday And
Thursday Which Brings A Moderating Temperature Trend. Later In The
Week...we Expect To See Lowering Mid Level Heights As A Trof Digs
Southeast Into The Southern States. This Pattern Supports An
Approaching Front Late In The Week...which Passes Through The Area
Saturday. As The Westerlies Strengthen Over The Gulf Into The
Weekend...wilma Is Forecast To Turn Right Or East Northeastward And
Begin Accelerating Not Long After Moving Northward Through The
Yucatan Channel. This Makes For Possible Impacts Over The Southern
Florida Peninsula And Keys. For Us...the Circulation Envelope Around
Wilma Would Provide For Subsident/sinking Air Motions Which Will
Battle It Out With The Front Moving Through. As This Plays
Out...overall Coverages Of Showers And Thunderstorms Appear To Be
Small...going With Isolated Friday And Saturday. A Reinforcing Cold
Front May Bring A Slight Chance Of Showers To The Area Late Sunday
Into Monday. Temperatures Are Forecast To Be Above Climo Early On In
The Medium Range. Frontal Passages Late In The Period Should Allow
For Max/mins To Settle Back To Near Climo Then.

$$

ROLLTIDE

10-19-2005, 08:49 PM

.short Term...dry Through The Period Except For An Isolated To
Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Along The Coast As The
Cold Front Nears The Coast Late Friday And Saturday. Continue Above
Normal Afternoon Temperatures Next Two Days Then About 10 Degrees
Cooler For Saturday Afternoon As The Cooler Air Arrives With The
Front. Will Need To Consider A High Surf Advisory For Thursday
Night...based On The Gww And Wna Model Data But Would Like To See
Some Long Period Swell Show Up At The Mid Gulf Buoys First. If/when
Wilma Gets A Bit More To The West It Will Be In A Similiar Location
That Mitch Was In When Long Period Swells Moved Into The Gulf
Through The Channel And Impacted Dauphin Island./11

.long Term...will Not Have Any Precipitation In Forecast Next Week
Until Late In Forecast Period...as Dry Northerly Winds Keep Return
Moisture Contained Well To The South Through Most Of The Week.
Temperatures Will Remain Cool With Mid To Upper 40s Expected For
Morning Lows All But The Coastal Areas. /11

&&

.marine...northeast Winds Across The Offshore Waters Are More A
Result Of The High Pressure Ridge Than Effects From Wilma At This
Time. Southeasterly Winds Near The Coast Are Sea Breeze And Will
Retuen To Northeast Later This Evening. Pattern To Remain About The
Same Until Cold Front Arrives Late Friday Into Early Saturday.
Strength Of Winds Will Depend On Amount Of Cool Air Moving Across
The Offshore Waters And Possibly Pressure Gradient Between Wilma And
The Front...although It Appears That Wilma Will Still Be Near The
Yuctuan Channel. Will Likely Need At Least Small Craft Advisory
Sometime Over The Weekend. Winds Gradually Diminish Beginning The
First Of The Week. /11

&&

.fire Weather...very Dry This Afternoon With Red Flag Currently In
Effect For The Florida Panhandle. Not Quite As Dry On Thursday And
Friday Afternoons With A More Humid Air Mass Creeping Onshore In
Advance Of The Front. Drier But Cooler On Saturday And Sunday But
Driest Air And Possible Red Flag Conditions Not Expected Until
Monday./11

ROLLTIDE

10-20-2005, 07:19 AM

Ong Term (friday Through Thursday)...a Shortwave System Brings A
Cold Front Through The Area Friday Into Friday Night. Will Stay
With Small Pops In The Current Package For Friday...with Small Pops
Also For Friday Night As The Front Moves Through. Drier Air Flows
Into The Forecast Area On Saturday And Will Go With A Dry Forecast.
A Powerful Surge Of Mid Level Energy Meanwhile Pours Out Of
Saskatchewan And Into The Northern Plains. This System Moves Across
The Eastern States Through Sunday And Drives A Surge Of Colder Air
Into The Forecast Area...and Also Shoves Wilma On An Accelerating
Eastward Track Across The Southern Gulf And Later Into The
Atlantic. May See A Few Light Showers With This Next Front...but
Will Stay With A Dry Forecast For Now And Reassess Tomorrow. Dry
And Cooler Conditions Follow In The Wake Of The Front Through
Thursday. Will Go With Cooler Temperatures In The Extended
Considering This Pattern...with Confidence Increased Due To Gfs
Ensemble Average Temperatures Very Near The Operational Gfs...even
Cooler On The Coldest Night...monday Night. /29

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-29-2005, 09:01 AM

Today: Sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 45. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 74. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 48. East wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. East wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78. East wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 53.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 77.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 76.

ROLLTIDE

11-03-2005, 08:38 AM

Today: Sunny, with a high near 79. South wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 58. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high around 83. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Patchy fog after 8pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low near 60. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 8am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high around 80. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 59.

Election Day: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 82.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 78.

ROLLTIDE

11-06-2005, 11:29 AM

This Afternoon: Partly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 74 by 5pm. West wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 62. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Election Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 58.

Veteran's Day: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 80.

Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 79.

ROLLTIDE

11-09-2005, 09:22 AM

I am so sick of this fog !!!!

ROLLTIDE

11-15-2005, 08:41 AM

First Freeze Of The Season Expected Later This Week...

A Strong Cold Front Will Blast Across The Region Early Wednesday
Morning. Behind The Front...a Cold Canadian Airmass Will Quickly
Spread Southward Aboard A Strong Northerly Wind. High Temperatures
On Wednesday Will Likely Only Warm A Few Degrees Above The Morning
Lows...generally In The Lower 50s Over The Far Northern Reaches To
Lower To Mid 60s Along The Immediate Coast.

Thursday Morning Lows Will Approach The Freezing Mark For Many
Interior Areas...generally Along And North Of A New Augusta
Mississippi To Andalusia Alabama Line. A Slight Northerly Breeze
Should Hinder Any Significant Frost Development Thursday
Morning...however Precautions Should Probably Be Taken To Protect
Sensitive Outdoor Plants.

The Coldest Temperatures Are Expected To Be Felt Friday Morning...
With Temperature Plummeting Into The Upper 20s For 2 To 3 Hours
Across Interior Locations Generally Along And North Of The I-10
Corridor From Mobile To Crestview. The Cold Temperatures Coupled
With Light Winds Will Result In Significant Frost Development Early
Friday Morning. Although Saturday Morning Lows Will Be Slightly
Warmer...the Freeze And Frost Threat Could Repeat Itself Again
Saturday Morning.

Area Residents Are Advised To Begin Taking Precautions To Protect
Pets And Plants From The Cold Temperatures. Remember To Also Check
On The Elderly...making Sure Their Heaters Are Working Properly. Be
Particularly Careful With Portable Heaters Where There Is The Danger
Of Fire Or Poisonous Fumes.

Stay Tuned To Noaa Weather Radio...commercial Radio Or Television
Stations...or Your Cable Television Provider For The Latest

ROLLTIDE

11-16-2005, 07:59 AM

Today: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 60 by 11am, then falling to around 53 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Breezy, with a north wind around 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high around 58. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low near 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind around 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 65. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. North wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 65. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 38.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

ROLLTIDE

11-17-2005, 12:38 PM

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THE FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT
FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM MOBILE TO CRESTVIEW. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-172200-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FZ.A.0001.051118T0600Z-051118T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FZ.W.0002.051118T0600Z-051118T1500Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...
FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...
BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...
PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...
NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO
429 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WILL BE FELT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

REMEMBER...A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
PETS AND PLANTS FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES. REMEMBER TO ALSO CHECK ON
THE ELDERLY...MAKING SURE THEIR HEATERS ARE WORKING PROPERLY. BE
PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS WHERE THERE IS THE DANGER
OF FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL NEWS NETWORK
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS FREEZE SITUATION.

$$

ROLLTIDE

11-18-2005, 09:50 AM

Today: Sunny, with a high around 60. North wind around 15 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 41. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 63. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 49. North wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 68. North wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. North wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 64. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 65. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 41.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 64.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 68.

ROLLTIDE

11-27-2005, 09:36 AM

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a south wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 15 mph.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 77. South wind around 15 mph.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 62. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. North wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 44. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. North wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 48. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high around 67. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 47.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 68.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 67.

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2005, 12:37 PM

This Afternoon: Partly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 56 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 60. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low near 48. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 73. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 73. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high around 61. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low near 34.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high around 59.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 55.

ROLLTIDE

12-22-2005, 11:27 AM

ortheast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Wind chill values between 25 and 30 early. East wind around 5 mph becoming south.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 45. South wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. West wind around 10 mph.

Christmas Day: A 10 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 59. West wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 59. North wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 37.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 67.

ROLLTIDE

01-11-2006, 03:03 PM

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a steady temperature around 64. Calm wind.

Tonight: Patchy dense fog after 9pm. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 52. Calm wind.

Thursday: Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low near 59. South wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high around 70. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 60. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 39. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 61. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 47.

M.L.King Day: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 65.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

ROLLTIDE

01-16-2006, 06:59 AM

Tuesday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. Some of the storms could be severe. Temperature falling to around 52 by 5pm. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

ROLLTIDE

01-16-2006, 08:13 PM

A Dense Fog Advisory Is In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 4 Am Tuesday Morning.

.a Cold Front Approaching The Area From The West Will Allow For A Warm And Moist Airmass To Move Inland Over Interior Se Msi.
Portions Of Sw Al & The Western Fl Panhandle This Evening. As This Airmass Moves Interacts With The Relatively Cooler Near Shore Coastal Waters.areas Of Dense Fog Will Likely Develop Near The Coast By The Mid Evening Hrs Tonight & Gradually Spread Inland Through The Early Morning Hrs Tuesday. As We Approach Daybreak Tues However.increased Thunderstorm Activity As Well As Increasing Low Level Winds & Clouds Aloft.will Likely Result In The Dissipation Of The More Widespread Fog. For This Reason.the Advisory Is In Effect Only Through 4 Am.

Alz061>064-flz002-msz075-076-078-079-170545-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0003.060117t0300z-060117t1000z/
Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin- Coastal Escambia-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.pensacola.ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.
Bellview.ensley.myrtle Grove.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
332 Pm Cst Mon Jan 16 2006

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 4 Am Cst Tuesday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog Advisory.which Is In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 4 Am Cst Tuesday.

Areas Of Dense Fog Will Likely Develop Near The Coast By The Mid Evening Hrs Tonight & Gradually Spread Inland Through The Early Morning Hrs Tuesday.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be Reduced To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down.
Use Your Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You.

$$

ROLLTIDE

01-17-2006, 10:21 AM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
908 Am Cst Tue Jan 17 2006

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz079-171715-
Baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-
Covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-george-
Mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Coastal-okaloosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-washington-wilcox-
908 Am Cst Tue Jan 17 2006

.now...
Through 1030 Am Cst...two Lines Of Showers And Thunderstorms Will
Continue To Move East At Around 35 To 40 Mph Across Portions Of
Interior Southeast Mississippi And Much Of Southwest Alabama And The
Western Florida Panhandle. The Western Most Line Extended From Near
Camden...to Chatom...to Lucedale. These Storms Are Located Along A
Cold Front That Continues To Move East. Another Line Of Storms
Over Southwest Alabama...from Near Monroeville To Bay Minette...
Across Mobile Bay To Near Bayou La Batre Will Also Continue To Move
East At Around 35 To 40 Mph. This Eastern Most Line Has The
Potential To Produce The Strongest Thunderstorms Through 1030
Am. The Main Threat With Both Lines Of Showers And Thunderstorms Will
Be Isolated Tornadoes And Wind Gusts Up To 50 Mph. Rainfall Rates
With The Stronger Storms Could Approach Nearly One Inch Per Hour.
The Best Threat Of Severe Weather Will Likely Be East Of I-65 In
Alabama And Over The Florida Panhandle During The Late Morning And
Early Afternoon Hours.

Alex

01-17-2006, 07:05 PM

Despite the chances of thunderstorms and severe weather, all that I noted was moderate and steady rainfall all day. According to Alan Seals, there was some lightning in the area and an inch of rain at the WKRG studios. However, that's according to him. I noted no thunder or lightning, but definitely saw an inch or so of rainfall near Cottage Hill and Hillcrest Roads. Lows in the low 30s tonight with rapid clearing, very typical of a winter time frontal passage.

ROLLTIDE

01-21-2006, 10:53 AM

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
900 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006

ALZ056>064-FLZ001>006-211700-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-MOBILE COASTAL-
MOBILE INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
SANTA ROSA INLAND-
900 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006

.NOW...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE GULF COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 11 AM.
WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

ROLLTIDE

01-21-2006, 03:40 PM

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-221300-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0004.060122t0000z-060122t1300z/
Lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin-coastal Escambia-coastal Santa Rosa-
Coastal Okaloosa-
Including The Cities Of.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.
Fairhope.foley.spanish Fort.pensacola.ferry Pass.
Brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.myrtle Grove.
Pace.milton.gulf Breeze.wright.fort Walton Beach.
Niceville.destin.seminole.eglin Afb.valparaiso
336 Pm Cst Sat Jan 21 2006

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 7 Am Cst Sunday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog
Advisory.which Is In Effect Until 7 Am Cst Sunday.

Areas Of Dense Fog Have Been Observed Over The Near Shore Gulf Waters
And The S. Sections Of Mobile Bay. These Areas Of Fog Will
Drift No. & Over The Coastal Areas Later This Evening.causing
Very Poor Visibility. Those Traveling Later This Evening On Coastal
Roads Should Be Prepared For Poor Driving Visibility.along With
Patches Of Rain & Showers. Visibility At Times Will Likely Be Near
Zero.especially Near The Beaches & Bays Of So. Al & The
West Fl Panhandle.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be
Reduced To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down.
Use Your Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You

ROLLTIDE

01-22-2006, 07:58 AM

Yawn

Today: A chance of drizzle before 10am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high around 71. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 10 mph.

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. South wind around 10 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 46. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 65. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 41. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 65. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 63. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 44.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 64.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.

ROLLTIDE

01-24-2006, 09:33 AM

Today: Partly sunny early, then becoming sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 38. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. East wind around 10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 65. East wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 15 mph.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 67. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 55.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 65.

ROLLTIDE

01-26-2006, 08:49 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 64. East wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low near 49. East wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 67. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high around 68. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers, mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 67. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 37.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 60.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41.

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 62.

ROLLTIDE

01-28-2006, 09:12 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 280914
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
314 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT OVER THE WEST
ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 30S OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AND MAINLY 45 TO 50 ELSEWHERE SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME VIRGA AND A FEW SPRINKLES MOST ANY
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. DID GO WITH HIGH END SCATTERED OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS AFTERNOON. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HAVE ALL THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING
SUB-TROPICAL JET ARRIVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AND WARM SECTOR SETS
UP. /11

ROLLTIDE

01-30-2006, 06:56 AM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
355 Am Cst Mon Jan 30 2006

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-301300-
Baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-
Covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-george-
Greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-stone-
Washington-wayne-wilcox-
355 Am Cst Mon Jan 30 2006

.now...

Patchy Fog...occasionally Dense Will Continue To Affect
Sections Of The Area Mainly Along And Southeast Of I65...until After
Sunrise. The Fog Is Not Expected To Be Widespread Over The
Remainder Of The Area...but Fog And Drizzle Will Still Produce
Pockets Of Poor Visibility On Area Roads...near Bays And River
Valleys.

Please Drive Carefully And Be Prepared For Slow Or Stopped Traffic.

$$

Alex

01-30-2006, 08:35 PM

The storm shield take'th away.

Just a moderate rain shower in Pensacola this evening. Large storm clouds to the west however, did Baldwin get anything noteworthy?

ROLLTIDE

02-02-2006, 06:57 AM

Today: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. High around 70. Windy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight: A 10 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 70. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before midnight. Cloudy, with a low near 48. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 64. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 57. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 37.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Tuesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 58

ROLLTIDE

02-03-2006, 10:04 AM

Isolated Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop
This Afternoon...with The Highest Threats Of Severe Weather Being
Locally Damaging Winds And Hail Up To Penny Size. The Increased
Possibility Of Tornadoes Will Mainly Be Southeast Of Interstate-65.

Alex

02-03-2006, 02:17 PM

We had an hour or two batch of heavy rain with some thunder and lightning yesterday around 6 am. 2.10 inches of rain fell in Pensacola.

ROLLTIDE

02-06-2006, 09:25 AM

Tuesday Through Wednesday)...dry And Cool Tuesday But Then As A
Long Wave Over The East Coast Continues To Pour Cold Air Into The
Region. Gfs Now Has The 1300 Meter 1000-850 Mb Thickness Line
Settling Into Southern Alabama. Recalling That This Is The Mean
Temperature Of Freezing...it Would Be A Demarcation Of Considerable
Import. However...in This Cycle That Value Is Not Reaching Much
Further South Than The Northern Cwa Along A Line From Butler To
Camden. Nonetheless The Day Shift Mentioned The Impact Of A Strong
Shortwave Moving Through The Base Of The Long Wave Which Continues
To Cause A Thought It Could Wring Out Some Freezing Precip Over The
Northern Portion Of The Area Wednesday Into Wednesday Evening.
Provided This Persists Long Enough And Temperatures Fall Below
Freezing...flurries May Be Possible Wednesday Night After Midnight
If Temperature And Moisture Availability Modulate Appropriately.
Will Not Mention Flurries Because Of Temperatures Above Freezing
Near The Surface. /77

&&

ROLLTIDE

02-07-2006, 07:49 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 071112
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA LATE YESTERDAY HAS SCOOTED
AWAY AT INTERSTATE SPEED PAST THE CAROLINAS INTO ONLSOW BAY. STEEP
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE FOR A HEALTHY 10 TO 20 MPH BREEZE TODAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL FLATTEN
AND EASE OFF THE WIND. A DRY CLEAR DAY WILL ENSUE AFTER THE
RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS SWEPT PAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO PLUMMET. MINIMAL DEVIATION FROM MAV
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM...AND POPS REMAIN
NEAR ZERO.

77/DALY

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...THE EASTERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE
COOL AIRMASS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COMES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SLIDING ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THURSDAY
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
OUT OF THIS FEATURE STARTING WEDNEDAY NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS
RIGHT...WE MIGHT EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL FIELDS DONT REALLY POINT TO
ANY FROZEN PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OUR AREA WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LINING UP
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
DEPTH IN PLACE TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR GETS INTO PLACE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

05/GARMON

&&

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT
TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STEEPENING GRADIENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ENSUING HIGH WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS
MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY...INCREASING THE WINDS AGAIN TO AROUND 20
KNOTS DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY AS THAT HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
AREA.

77/DALY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY.

05/GARMON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 58 32 62 36 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 61 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 59 39 59 43 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 55 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 55 29 60 34 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 53 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FLZ001>006-008
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED FLZ001>006-008.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ630-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

02-08-2006, 09:17 AM

.short Term (today And Tonight)...gradient Will Continue To Flatten
And Allow The Wind To Slacken. A Dry Mostly Clear Day Similar To
Yesterday...with No Significant Deviation From The Mav Mos
Temperature Guidance. We Will Have A Deck Of Midlevel Clouds
Passing Over Our Northeastern Zones Tonight As A Shortwave Moves
Across Northern Alabama Into Central Georgia. Any Wintry Precip
Will Fall Well Northeast Of Our Area Closer To The Deeper Layered
Vertical Saturation In The Zone Of Greater Dynamic Forcing And
Deeper Omega Values. Pops Remain Below 10 Percent Across Most Of
Our Area Through Tonight.

ROLLTIDE

02-09-2006, 06:24 PM

Fxus64 Kmob 092049
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
248 Pm Cst Thu Feb 9 2006

.short Term (tonight And Friday)...

High Pressure Axis Was Analyzed North/south From The Tennessee
Valley...down Into The Central And Western Gulf. We Also Analyze A
Reinforcing Cold Frontal Passage Moving Southward Into The Marine
Waters. High Pressure Is Forecast To Slip Eastward...moving Off The
Southeast United States Coast On Friday...while Low Pressure Forms
On The West Side Of Front...over Louisiana During The Day. High
Level Cloudiness Has Been Increasing And Expanding Eastward Out Of
New Mexico Into Texas. Not Calling For Rain Tonight Due To Very
Limited Deep Layer Moisture...but High Layer Moisture Will Be On The
Increase From West To East By Late Tonight. Ceilings Lowering On
Friday With Rain Chances Increasing Through The Afternoon As Low
Pressure Approaches From The West. Higher Chances Will Be In The
Western Zones. As For Temeratures...a Moderating Trend Is Expected
As The High Moves East Of The Area Through Friday...allowing For A
South To Southeast Component To The Wind.

.long Term (friday Night Through Thursday)...

Categorical Pops Area-wide (90 Percent) Are Projected Friday
Evening...then Tapering Off From West To East As Low Pressure Moves
East Northeast Through Southern Alabama Overnight. Any Thunderstorm
Activity...if At All...looks To Be Confined To The Marine Area. We
Are Not Seeing A Great Deal Of Northward Influx Of Most Unstable
Convective Available Potential Energy...which Is Generally Below 800
J/kg. It Still Appears That The Deep Layered Moisture Will Be East
Of The Area By The Time The Deep Cold Air Aloft Gets Into Place. So
We Are Keeping The Precip Type All Rain For Friday Night Into Early
Saturday. In The Wake Of The Departing Low And A Southward Plunge Of
Arctic Air...strong Low Level Cold Advection Processes And Boundary
Layer Mixing Lends Support To Shaving The Gfs Mos Numbers Down A Few
Degrees For Saturday`s Highs. At This Time...we Dont Project Getting
Out Of The 40s At Most Areas. Its Gonna Be A Cold And Brisk Saturday
To Kick Off The Mardi Gras Season.

No Changes To The Previous Package Going With The Mex Mos Numbers
Saturday Night As They Seemed Close...but We Decided To Shave Off 3
To 5 Degrees From The Mex Mos Projections Across The Interior
Eastern Zones For Monday Morning Keeping Them In The Lower To Mid
20s. The Ridge Axis Should Be Parked Across The Area And The
Eastern Inland Zones Will Most Likely Be Under Stronger Radiative
Cooling Processes As Boundary Layer Will Be Decoupled Under Mostly
Clear To Partly Cloudy Skies. Dry Pattern With Slow Warming
Projected Through Wednesday...then Slight Chances Of Rain Start
Creeping Back In For Late Week As We Get A Weak Return Flow On The
Backside Of The Ridge Axis. /10

&&

.marine...

As Expected...winds And Seas Are Gradually Subsiding This Afternoon

Alabamaboy

02-09-2006, 11:08 PM

Spsmob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
910 Pm Cst Thu Feb 9 2006

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-101100-
Baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-
Covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-
George-greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-
Okaloosa Coastal-okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-stone-washington-wayne-wilcox-
910 Pm Cst Thu Feb 9 2006

...windy And Much Colder Weather Just Around The Corner...

An Area Of Low Pressure Is Forecast To Develop Over Southern
Louisiana Friday Evening...moving East Across Mississippi And
Alabama Late Friday Night. A Strong Cold Front Will Move Across The
Gulf Coast As The Low Passes North Of Mobile...pulling A Cold Arctic
Airmass Well South Over The Gulf Of Mexico.

As The Low Pressure System Approaches Friday...southerly Winds Will
Increase To Near 30 Mph Along The Coastal Areas. The Strong
Southerly Winds May Result In Some Minor Coastal Flooding Along The
Alabama And Northwest Florida Coasts. Residents In Locations That
Usually See Coastal Flooding With Strong South Winds Should Remain
Alert For This Potential Friday Evening. Those With Tarps Still On
Their Damaged Roofs From Last Seasons Hurricanes Should Be Alert For
The Potential Of Gusty Winds To Around 40 Mph Starting Late Friday.

The Strong Cold Front And Associated Widespread Rains...will Move
Across The Region Late Friday Night. Rains Diminish By Saturday
Morning As A Cold Arctic Airmass Rushes In On The Heels Of A Strong
Northwesterly Wind...dropping Wind Chills Into The 30s By The
Afternoon. Temperatures On Saturday Are Not Expected To Get Out Of
The Middle 40s For Most Locations.

On Saturday Night...temperatures Are Forecast To Drop Into The
Lower To Middle 20s Across The Interior Portions Of Southeast
Mississippi...south Alabama And Areas North Of Interstate 10 In
Northwest Florida. Very Cold Temperatures Into The Lower 20s Will
Again Be Possible Sunday Night And Early Monday Morning Across The
Inland Areas...particularly For Portions Of South Central Alabama.

Stay Tuned For Additional Forecast Information From Your
National Weather Service On The Cold Weather Expected This Weekend.

ROLLTIDE

02-10-2006, 07:14 AM

Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
444 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

...A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES
TODAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20
TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102230-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WI.Y.0001.060211T0000Z-060212T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT ...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDAL E
444 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND. AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN DRIVING...ESPECIALLY OVER
ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OPEN AREAS.

THOSE WITH TARPS STILL ON THEIR DAMAGED ROOFS IN THE WAKE OF LAST
YEAR`S HURRICANES SHOULD TAKE TIME TODAY TO MAKE SURE THEIR TARPS ARE
PROPERLY SECURED FOR THE INCREASED WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

$$

Alabamaboy

02-10-2006, 05:06 PM

Npwmob

Urgent - Weather Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
353 Pm Cst Fri Feb 10 2006

...a Wind Advisory Remains In Effect Across Portions Of Interior
Southeast Mississippi...south Alabama And The Western Florida
Panhandle For Tonight And Saturday...

.developing Surface Low Pressure Over Eastern Texas Early Friday
Afternoon Will Move Eastward And Begin To Deepen Over Louisiana
Tonight With An Increasing Southerly Wind Flow Expected Across
The Area Tonight. This Low Pressure Will Move Rapidly East Across
Mississippi And Alabama Late Tonight...reaching Southern Georgia
By Early Saturday Morning. As The Low Moves Off To The East...a
Strong Cold Front Will Move Across The Central Gulf Coast
Region...shifting The Strong Winds To The Northwest. Strong
Southwest Winds Of 15 To 25 Mph Late Tonight Will Become
Northwest At 20 To 30 Mph On Saturday. Wind Gusts To Around
35 Mph Will Be Possible Behind The Front On Saturday.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-110600-
/o.con.kmob.wi.y.0001.060211t0000z-060212t0000z/
Choctaw-washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lower Mobile-
Lower Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...chatom...
Millry...jackson...thomasville...grove Hill...camden...
Pine Hill...homewood...monroeville...evergreen...greenv ille...
Luverne...brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...
Andalusia...opp...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...
Tillmans Corner...theodore...daphne...fairhope...foley...
Spanish Fort...century...flomaton...molino...pensacola...
Ferry Pass...brent...west Pensacola...bellview...ensley...
Myrtle Grove...jay...pace...milton...gulf Breeze...crestview...
Wright...fort Walton Beach...niceville...destin...seminole...
Eglin Afb...valparaiso...waynesboro...richton...beaumont ...
New Augusta...leakesville...mclain...wiggins...lucedal e
353 Pm Cst Fri Feb 10 2006

...wind Advisory Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Saturday...

A Wind Advisory Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Saturday.

Developing Surface Low Pressure Over Eastern Texas Early Friday
Afternoon Will Move Eastward And Begin To Deepen Over Louisiana
Tonight With An Increasing Southerly Wind Flow Expected Across The
Area Tonight. This Low Pressure Will Move Rapidly East Across
Mississippi And Alabama Late Tonight...reaching Southern Georgia By
Early Saturday Morning. As The Low Moves Off To The East...a Strong
Cold Front Will Move Across The Central Gulf Coast Region...shifting
The Strong Winds To The Northwest. Strong Southwest Winds Of 15 To
25 Mph Late Tonight Will Become Northwest At 20 To 30 Mph On
Saturday. Wind Gusts To Around 35 Mph Will Be Possible Behind The
Front On Saturday.

A Wind Advisory Means That Winds Between 25 And 35 Mph Are
Expected. Winds This Strong Can Make Driving Difficult...
Especially For High Profile Vehicles. Use Extra Caution When
Driving...especially Over Elevated Bridges And Open Areas.

Those With Tarps Still On Their Damaged Roofs In The Wake Of Last
Year's Hurricanes Should Take Time Today To Make Sure Their Tarps
Are Properly Secured For The Increased Winds Tonight And
Saturday. Also...those Who May Still Be In Fema Trailers Should
Also Be Advised Of The Potential For Strong Gusty Winds.

Alex

02-11-2006, 01:41 AM

There ya go Rollie, one bolt of lightning and extended rumble of thunder to go along with our "Ordinary Thunderstorms" (thanks to Alan Sealls for that insightful classification to tonight's squall line).

Alabamaboy

02-11-2006, 02:51 AM

John Edd said at 5:00PM that we would have a "POSSIBLE RUMBLE" but it was more that that when it came thru Eight Mile

ROLLTIDE

02-11-2006, 09:59 AM

That was more than a normal Thunderstorm

ROLLTIDE

02-12-2006, 09:21 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. West wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 29. Calm wind.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Alex

02-13-2006, 12:03 PM

So did any of the flurries actually make it to the ground in Mobile County on Saturday night? I didn't see any personally.

Alabamaboy

02-13-2006, 03:58 PM

Npwmob

Urgent - Weather Message ...correction...
National Weather Service Mobile Al
300 Pm Cst Mon Feb 13 2006

...hard Freeze Warning In Effect Tonight...

.a Cold Airmass Will Remain Across The Region Through Tuesday
Morning. Calm Winds...clear Skies...and Very Dry Conditions Will
Create An Environment Which Is Ideal For Rapid Cooling Averaging
As Low As The Low And Mid 20s...and Down To High Teens To Near 20
In Isolated Places...over Inland Rural Locations By Tuesday
Morning.

Alz056>060-flz001-003-005-140500-
/o.new.kmob.fz.w.0001.060214t0600z-060214t1500z/
Conecuh-butler-crenshaw-escambia-covington-inland Escambia-
Inland Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-
Including The Cities Of...evergreen...greenville...luverne...
Brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...andalusia...opp...
Century...flomaton...molino...jay...crestview
300 Pm Cst Mon Feb 13 2006

...hard Freeze Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 9 Am Cst
Tuesday...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A Hard Freeze
Warning...which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 9 Am Cst
Tuesday.

.a High Bringing Cold Air To The Region Will Remain In Place Through
Tuesday Morning. Calm Winds...clear Skies...and Very Dry Air Will
Make Rapid Cooling Possible...averaging As Low As The Low And Mid
20s...and Down To High Teens To Near 20 In Isolated Places...over
Mostly Inland Rural Locations By Tuesday Morning.

A Hard Freeze Warning Means Sub-freezing Temperatures Are Imminent Or
Highly Likely. People In These Areas Should Remain Watchful For The
Safety Of The Elderly And Homeless. Pets And Livestock Should Also
Be Protected. These Conditions Will Kill Crops And Other Sensitive
Vegetation. Liquid Cooling Systems On Vehicles And Stationary Engines
Should Also Be Protected.

ROLLTIDE

02-14-2006, 12:57 PM

This Afternoon: Cloudy, with a high around 60. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 71. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 52. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

ROLLTIDE

02-16-2006, 08:52 AM

Long Term(friday Through Thursday)...the Upper Shortwave Swinging
Around The Ca Upper Low Has Swung East...with A Stronger Bunch Of
Energy Swinging South Over The West Coast. A Trough Is Digging Over
The Atlantic...helping To Squeeze The Subtropical Ridge Northward...
To Over The Bay Of Campeche By The Beginning Of Friday. The
Combination Of Shortwaves Help Pull The Upper Low Southeastward
Through Saturday...with The First System And Upper Low Combining. The
West Coast End Of The Shortwave Chain Relatively Stationary Fri/fri
Night...pushing The Surface Boundary The Rest Of The Way From Near
I-20 To Over The Northern Gulf Coast. A Little Stall...then A Stream
Of Shortwave Energy Swinging Around The Now Closed Off Upper Low Over
The West Coast...help To Push The Front Into The Gulf By Sunday Morn.
Another Shot Of Upper Energy Draws The Front North Over The Fa Later
Sunday Through Sunday Night As A Warm Front...then South Again Monday
Night As The Upper Support Passes And High Pressure Build South Over
The Plains. A Shortwave Trough Digging South Over The
Central/northern Plains Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Creates The Same
Ping/pong North/south Movement Of The Front Wed/wed Night..with The
Surface Front Pushing Over The Central Gulf Thursday Before Another
Ping/pong The End Of Next Week.

The Only Thing That Has Been Consistent With The Pattern Is Its
Inconsistency In Handling The Surface Boundary. Ensemble Mos Still
Has A General 10-15 Degree Spread...with Model Run To Model Run
Inconsistencies. Mav/met Numbers In Good Agreement Friday/friday
Night. Saturday Is A Different Story. A Good Sign Is That The Op Gfs
Numbers Are Showing The Best Agreement That Hey Have Show Over The
Last Several Days. Still Some Spread Between The Two...especially
Monday...but Much Better. Have A Bit More Confidence With The Current
Gfs Based Forecast As A Result.

There Is One Thing That I Am Pretty Confident In...any Precip
Through This Forecast Will Be Liquid...with Nothing To Give The Cold
Air A Shove This Way.

ROLLTIDE

02-17-2006, 11:37 PM

Fxus64 Kmob 180331 Aaa
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion...update
National Weather Service Mobile Al
930 Pm Cst Fri Feb 17 2006

.short Term Update...we Are Currently Working On Some Minor
Adjustments To The Temp Grids Tonight In Addition To The General
Forecast Wording Here And There. The Cold Front Has Gone
Quasi-stationary Along And Just North Of The Coast This
Evening...roughly From Just South Of New Orleans...to Just South Of
Mobile...to Between Crestview And Evergreen. The Upper 30 Dewpoints
Are Slowly Working In Across Our Far Northern Zones At This
Time...with Just A Few Patches Of Very Light Rain Or Drizzle
Expected Through Daybreak.

The Situation For Tomorrow Still Appears To Be One Of A Cold Rain
For Most Locations. The Upper Disturbance Moving East Out Of
Oklahoma Tonight Will Give The Stalled Front A Shove Southward
Tomorrow As It Passes Just North Of Our Area. The Current Forecast
Has This Scenario Advertised. Like The Dayshift...we Did Notice The
Lower 1000-850 Mb Thicknesses Working In Across Our Northern Areas
Tomorrow Evening...but The Forcing For Moderate Rains Should Be Long
Gone By The Time We Eventually See Any Lower Wetbulb Temps. It
Still Appears The Wintry Precipitation Threat Will Remain Well North
Of Our Forecast Area Through The Short Term.

&&

ROLLTIDE

02-18-2006, 09:26 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 181023
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS THE DAYSHIFT
MENTIONED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL OVER
OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES (PRIMARILY NORTHERN CHOCTAW AND WILCOX
COUNTIES) LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING REGARDING
CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTRY PCPN. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR OUR
FCST AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. MIDLEVEL FORCING
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL RESULT IN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THEN...LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO FCST SHIFTS HAVE
NOTED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
WORKING IN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE FORCING FOR THE HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY SHOULD HAVE MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND PCPN SHOULD BE TAPPERING OFF BY
THE TIME WE EVENTUALLY SEE ANY CRITICALLY LOW SFC WETBULB TEMPS...OR
FAVORABLE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES LATE TONIGHT. SO AT THIS TIME...WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY PCPN FOR ANY OF OUR FCST AREA AND NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. THIS SAID...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THAT POSSIBILITY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES (PRIMARILY NORTHERN CHOCTAW AND
WILCOX COUNTIES) TONIGHT. IF HEAVIER PCPN WERE TO PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER THAN WE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD
RESULT IN THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS MIN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK. THE DAYSHIFT WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS AS THEY WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL DATA TO PONDER OVER. AS FOR
TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE GENERALLY COOLER MAV
MOS. 12/SHEPHERD

ROLLTIDE

02-20-2006, 07:51 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 201022
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
415 Am Cst Mon Feb 20 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...surface High Centered Over
Western Kentucky With Yesterdays Front Sprawled Across The Gulf Of
Mexico From The Straits Of Florida To The Northwest Gulf. Wave
Developing On Front Over The Western Gulf Has Warm Front...as
Depicted By Buoy Data A Hundred Miles Or So South Of The Louisiana
Coast. Believe The Front Will Stay South Of The Coast Until Late
Tonight But Temperatures Today Will Be A Little Warmer Than
Yesterday With A Slightly More Easterly Component To The Winds.
Patches Of Rain And Showers Scattered About Today With Better
Chances To The North...not Expected Much In The Way Of Amounts But A
Few Places Will Probably Pick Up A Few Hundredths. Warm Front Moving
North Across The Area Later Tonight Should Mean Overnight Low
Temperatures Will Come Before Midnight Over The Southern Sections.
/11

&&

.long Term...(tuesday Through Sunday). Shallow Layer Of Dense Cold
Air Continues To Retreat Back To The Nne Giving Way To Better
Moisture Near The Sfc For Much Of The Cwfa By Late Tue Aft And Tue
Night. Remnant Frontal Boundary Which Initially Moves Onshore Very
Early Tue Morning Moves North Of The Cwfa By Late Tue Eve Setting
The Stage For Better Convergence/measurable Precip Mostly Over
Northern Sections Of The Cwfa Late Tue Night Into Wed. Due To The
Proximity Of The Stalled Front Best Chance For Measurable Precip
Will Be Over Northern Sections Of The Cwfa Both Tue And Wed. Both
The Gfs And Nam Depict Better Lift In Advance Of A Weak Impulse
Coming In From The West Late Wed Into Wed Night Giving Way To Mostly
Showers For Most Areas In The Cwfa Wed Aft And Early Wed Night.
Remnant Front Shifts Back To The South Early Thu As Pacific High
Settles Over The Lower Ms Rvr And Central Gulf States...thus Giving
Way To Drier Conditions Mainly Through Thu. By Fri Return Flow Sets
Up Early In Response To Digging Trof Moving Across The Central And
Eastern Conus. Widespread Showers And Possibly A Few Trws Will Be
Possible In Advance Of This System Fri Aft And Early Fri Night
Followed By A Strong Cold Front Moving South Of The Cwfa Early Sat
As Another Arctic Airmass Moves Into The Central Conus. As For Temps
Will Continue To Use Current 00z Mex Guidance Through Ht He Period.
/32

&&

.marine...generally Light Northeast To Southeast Winds Over The
Marine Area Today With Winds Becoming More Southerly And Increasing
A Bit Tonight As The Warm Front Arrives Over The Southern Waters.
Warm Front Should Be North Of The Coast By Midnight Or So With A
Light To Moderate South Wind. Winds Should Stay Mainly Southerly
Until Wednesday Night Or Early Thursday. High Pressure Moving East
Across The Tennessee Valley Will Send Winds Back To The North For
The Last Part Of The Week. A Chance Of Light Rain Or Showers Through
Most Of The Week With A Surface Boundary Across The Coastal Waters
Through Much Of The Period. Am Not Anticipating Any Advisories At
This Time. /11

ROLLTIDE

02-21-2006, 06:01 AM

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-211500-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0008.060221t1000z-060221t1500z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
312 Am Cst Tue Feb 21 2006

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This Morning.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog
Advisory.which Is In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This Morning.

Fog Has Grown Dense Since Midnight & Has Spread Across Most Of The
Area. Visibility Was A Fourth Of A Mile At Mobile Regional Airport
And A Half Mile At Brookley Field At 3 Am. Poor Driving Visibility
Should Be Affecting Most Of The Area By Sunrise & The Morning Rush
Hour. Patches Of Light Rain & Drizzle Was Also Falling In
Places.which Will Impair The Visibility Even More. Conditions Are
Expected To Improve By Mid Morning.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be
Reduced To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down.
Use Your Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You. Be
Prepared For Slow Or Stopped Traffic On The Roadway.especially In
School Zones.

$$

ROLLTIDE

02-21-2006, 04:24 PM

Dense Fog Advisory Has Been Issued For The Area From 900 Pm Until
1000 Am Wed Morning.

.a Warm Front Located Along The Coastal Area Will Slowly Move North
Overnight. This Will Allow Dense Fog To Develop During The Evening.
Visibilities Will Fall To Below A Quarter Mile Along The Coast This
Evening. The Dense Fog Will Spread Inland Overnight & Visibilities
Will Be Below A Quarter Mile Throughout The Whole Area After Midnight
And Will Continue To Be Very Dense Until Mid Morning.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-220630-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0010.060222t0300z-060222t1600z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
420 Pm Cst Tue Feb 21 2006

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 10 Am
Cst Wednesday.

Motorists Should Allow Extra Driving Times In Reaching Their
Destinations Tonight & Especially Wed Morning. Visibilities
Will Likely Be Below A Quarter Mile Across Most Of The Area During
The Overnight & Early Morning Hrs.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be
Reduced To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down.
Use Your Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You.

$$

ROLLTIDE

02-22-2006, 11:11 AM

It's 80 :(

ROLLTIDE

02-25-2006, 10:53 AM

Ecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1047 Am Cst Sat Feb 25 2006

Alz061-063-251745-
Lower Mobile-upper Mobile-
Including The Cities Of...downtown Mobile...
1047 Am Cst Sat Feb 25 2006

...strong Thunderstorms Continue To Approach The Southern Half Of
Mobile County...

At 1047 Am Cst National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A
Line Of Thunderstorms From 6 Miles West Of Tanner Williams To 23
Miles West Of Grand Bay...and Moving East At 25 Mph.

The Line Of Storms Will Affect Areas In And Around...
Big Creek Lake...tanner Williams...big Creek Lake Dam...snow And
Tanner Williams Roads...semmes...mobile Airport And Hutchens
Elementary School Through 1145 Am Cst.

The Primary Threats From These Storms Will Be Dangerous Cloud To
Ground Lightning...and Brief Wind Gusts Of 35 To 45 Mph...which
Could Down Small Tree Limbs Or Branches And Blow Around Unsecured
Small Objects. Seek Shelter In A Safe Home Or Building Until These
Storms Have Passed.

$$

Wwww

Alex

02-25-2006, 12:11 PM

Mardi Gras is washed out for the day I suppose?

ROLLTIDE

02-25-2006, 12:44 PM

Mardi Gras is washed out for the day I suppose?

nope not at all . They MOT parade always rolls !

Alex

02-25-2006, 02:22 PM

nope not at all . They MOT parade always rolls !

Damn I love those parades during downpours. >thinks back a few years to the Infant Mystics Parade of 2003<

Alex

02-25-2006, 10:09 PM

A blast from the past, what a day for weather on the Gulf Coast (06/25/99).

Alex

02-25-2006, 10:38 PM

And one event I'll not soon forget. The remnants of Tropical Storm Allison, the only tropical storm ever to get retired, as it moved over Mobile. It spawned a tornado near Big Creek Lake. I lived in Semmes at the time and the tornado damn near made its way over our head at 6:30 in the morning no less.

ROLLTIDE

02-26-2006, 08:02 AM

Today: Sunny, with a high around 62. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 36. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 62. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low near 47. South wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Areas of fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind around 5 mph.

ROLLTIDE

03-09-2006, 12:31 PM

Strong Winds To Continue Into Early Evening.

. A Deep Low Pressure System Well Nw Of The Area Has Increased
The Pressure Gradient Across The Region. This Increase Has Caused The
Surface Winds To Be In Excess Of 25 Mph For At Times. The Winds Are
Expected To Remain Sustained Above 25 Mph For More Than An Hour
Through The Afternoon. A Line Of Thunderstorms.that Have Developed
In Advance Of A Cold Front Will Move Into Se Ms Late
This Afternoon Or Evening. The Storms Moving East Across Southwest
Al & The Fl Panhandle Later This Evening. Winds Should
Diminish After The Thunderstorms Pass But Then Pick Up Again From The
Southwest & West.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-100130-
/o.new.kmob.wi.y.0002.060309t1727z-060310t0300z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
1127 Am Cst Thu Mar 9 2006

.wind Advisory In Effect Until 9 Pm Cst This Evening.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Wind
Advisory.which Is In Effect Until 9 Pm Cst This Evening.

Sustained Winds Of 25 To 35 Mph With Gusts To Near 40 Mph Can Be
Expected Across The Area This Afternoon & Early Evening.

A Wind Advisory Means That Sustained Winds Greater Than 25 Mph Are
Expected For More Than One Hour. Winds This Strong Can Make Driving
Difficult.especially For High Profile Vehicles. Use Extra Caution
Especially On East West Roads.bridges & Over Passes.

$$

Alex

03-09-2006, 09:25 PM

I read the Mobile forecast and it gave a 70% chance of showers/thunderstorms. It looks to me like Mobile got completely bypassed by all of the action with today's front, and that my other post about how the rain chance should be 20% was dead on...

ROLLTIDE

03-20-2006, 06:03 PM

Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM EST MON MAR 20 2006

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC003-005-011-017-031-039-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-097-109-
113-123-210700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.060321T0000Z-060321T0700Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK
CHAMBERS COFFEE COVINGTON
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
MACON MOBILE PIKE
RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA

Alabamaboy

03-23-2006, 01:00 AM

Npwmob

Urgent - Weather Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1140 Pm Cst Wed Mar 22 2006

...freeze Watch In Effect Late Thursday Night Through Early
Friday Morning For The Inland Portions Of Southwest Alabama And
Southeast Mississippi...

.unseasonably Cold High Pressure Will Build Into The Region
Thursday Night And Remain Into The Weekend. Temperatures Will
Drop Into The Mid Thirties Near Midnight Thursday Night...then
Possibly Drop To Around Freezing Late Thursday Night Into Early
Friday Morning. Spring Time Plants And Vegetables Have Enjoyed A Long
Period Of Mild Temperatures. However...this Cold Snap Suggests That
Growers In Inland Southeast Mississippi And Inland Southwest Alabama
Will Need To Take Protective Action Against The Potential Of Freezing
Temperatures And Frost.

Alz051>060-msz067-075-076-231345-
/o.con.kmob.fz.a.0001.060324t0800z-060324t1400z/
Choctaw-washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-wayne-perry-greene-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...chatom...
Millry...jackson...thomasville...grove Hill...camden...
Pine Hill...homewood...monroeville...evergreen...greenv ille...
Luverne...brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...
Andalusia...opp...waynesboro...richton...beaumont. ..new Augusta...
Leakesville...mclain
1140 Pm Cst Wed Mar 22 2006

...freeze Watch Remains In Effect From Late Thursday Night
Through Friday Morning...

Temperatures Are Forecast To Drop Into The Mid Thirties Around
Midnight Thursday Night...then Drop Further To Around The Freezing
Mark Late Thursday Night Into Early Friday Morning.

A Freeze Watch Means Freezing To Sub-freezing Temperatures Are
Possible. Growers Should Plan For Protective Measures...as These
Conditions Can Be Detrimental To Cold Sensitive Spring Plants And
Vegetables.

Alabamaboy

03-23-2006, 10:17 PM

Npwmob

Urgent - Weather Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
907 Pm Cst Thu Mar 23 2006

Alz051-054-241030-
/o.con.kmob.fz.w.0002.060324t0900z-060324t1300z/
/o.con.kmob.fz.a.0002.060325t0900z-060325t1300z/
Choctaw-wilcox-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...camden...
Pine Hill
907 Pm Cst Thu Mar 23 2006

...freeze Warning Remains In Effect From 3 Am To 7 Am Cst
Friday...
...freeze Watch Remains In Effect From Late Friday Night Through
Saturday Morning...

Unseasonably Cold Air Continues To Move South Tonight And Remain
Into The Weekend. Across Wilcox And Choctaw Counties In Alabama...the
Temperature Will Drop Below Forty After Midnight...then Bottom Out In
The Lower Thirties Around Sunrise. Patches Of Near Or Below Freezing
Temperatures Will Occur...mainly Across Northern Choctaw And Northern
Wilcox Counties. A Dry Lower Atmosphere Should Prevent Frost
Development Tonight. On Friday Night...light Winds...clear Skies Will
Allow For Patches Of Freezing Temperatures To Occur Across Inland
Southwest Alabama And Southeast Mississippi. Light Winds Will Make
The Development Of Frost Possible Across This Area As Well. Plants
And Vegetables Have Enjoyed A Long Period Of Mild Temperatures.
However...this Cold Snap Suggests That Growers In Inland Southeast
Mississippi And Inland Southwest Alabama Will Need To Take Protective
Action Against The Potential Of Freezing Temperatures And Frost.

A Freeze Warning Means Freezing To Sub-freezing Temperatures Are
Expected To Occur. Growers And Those With Interests Affected By Cold
Temperatures Need To Take Immediate Action To Protect Such Interests
From The Cold Temperatures.

A Freeze Watch Means Freezing To Sub-freezing Temperatures Are
Possible. Growers Should Plan For Protective Measures...as These
Conditions Can Be Detrimental To Cold Sensitive Plants And Vegetables.

ROLLTIDE

03-24-2006, 03:13 PM

A Freeze Warning Is In Effect From Late Tonight Through Early
Saturday Morning For Sw Al Except Coastal Sections.the
Inland Portion Of The Nw Fl Panhandle & Much Of
Southeast Ms.

.unseasonably Cold Air Will Continue To Spread Into The Cntl Gulf
Coast Region Through Sat As Strong High Pressure Over East Tx
Drifts Eastward. Overnight Temps Will Drop To 35 To 40 By
Midnight Tonight.then Bottom Out Generally In The Lwr Thirties
After 3 Am. A Patchy Freeze Will Occur Across The Warned Area. Winds
Will Become Light & Variable Late Tonight Giving Way To Patches Of
Frost As Well. This Cold Snap Suggests That Growers In Much Of
Southeast Ms.all Of Sw Al Except For Coastal
Sections.& The Inland Portion Of The Nw Fl Panhandle
Will Need To Take Protective Action Against The Potential Of Freezing
Temps & Frost.

Alz051>060-flz003-005-msz067-075-076-250500-
/o.upg.kmob.fz.a.0002.060325t0900z-060325t1300z/
/o.new.kmob.fz.w.0003.060325t0800z-060325t1300z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-inland Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.jay.crestview.waynesboro.richton.
Beaumont.new Augusta.leakesville.mclain
249 Pm Cst Fri Mar 24 2006

.freeze Warning In Effect From 2 Am To 7 Am Cst Sat Or Late Tonight
Through
Early Sat Morning.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Freeze
Warning.which Is In Effect From Late Tonight Through Early Saturday
Morning.

Overnight Temps Will Drop To 35 To 40 By Midnight
Tonight.then Bottom Out Generally In The Lwr Thirties After 3 Am.
A Patchy Freeze Will Occur Across The Warned Area. Winds Will Become
Light & Variable Late Tonight Giving Way To Patches Of Frost As Well.

A Freeze Warning Means Freezing To Sub-freezing Temps Are
Imminent Or Highly Likely. These Conditions Will Kill Crops & Other
Sensitive Vegetation.

$$

Alz061-062-flz001-msz078-079-250500-
/o.new.kmob.fz.w.0003.060325t0800z-060325t1300z/
Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-inland Escambia-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Century.flomaton.molino.wiggins.lucedale
249 Pm Cst Fri Mar 24 2006

.freeze Warning In Effect From 2 Am To 7 Am Cst Sat Or Late Tonight
Through
Early Sat Morning.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Freeze
Warning.which Is In Effect From 2 Am To 7 Am Cst Saturday.

Overnight Temps Will Drop To Near 40 By Midnight
Tonight.then Bottom Out In The Lwr To Mid Thirties After 3 Am. A
Patchy Freeze Will Occur Across The Warned Area. Winds Will Become
Light & Variable Late Tonight Giving Way To Patches Of Frost As
Well.

A Freeze Warning Means Freezing To Sub-freezing Temps Are
Imminent Or Highly Likely. These Conditions Will Kill Crops & Other
Sensitive Vegetation.

$$

ROLLTIDE

03-25-2006, 04:38 PM

A Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight For Se Ms
And Sw Al & The Nw Fl Panhandle Except For
The Coastal Sections.

.a Frost Advisory Is In Effect Tonight For The Coastal Portions Of
Southwest Al & The Western Fl Panhandle.

.unseasonably Cold Air Will Continue To Spread Into The Cntl
Gulf Coast Region Tonight As Strong High Pressure Drifts East Out
Of The Lwr Ms River Valley. A Brief & Patchy Light
Freeze Will Occur Across Portions Of Se Ms.and
Southwest Al & The Nw Fl Panhandle Except For
Coastal Sections.with Patchy Frost Expected Further So. To Near
The Coast.

Alz061-062-flz001-003-005-msz075-076-078-079-260615-
/o.upg.kmob.fr.y.0001.060326t0900z-060326t1300z/
/o.exb.kmob.fz.w.0004.060326t0800z-060326t1300z/
Upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-inland Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Inland Okaloosa-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Century.flomaton.molino.jay.crestview.richton.
Beaumont.new Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.
Lucedale
406 Pm Cst Sat Mar 25 2006

.freeze Warning In Effect From 2 Am To 7 Am Cst Sunday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Freeze
Warning.which Is In Effect From 2 Am Tonight To 7 Am Cst Sunday
Morning.

Temps Will Fall To Freezing To A Few Degrees Below Freezing
Late Tonight. This Will Result In A Patchy Freeze Across The Freeze
Warning Area.

A Freeze Warning Means Sub-freezing Temps Are Imminent Or
Highly Likely. These Conditions Will Kill Crops & Other
Sensitive Vegetation.

$$

Alz051>060-msz067-260615-
/o.ext.kmob.fz.w.0004.060326t0800z-060326t1300z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-wayne-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.waynesboro
406 Pm Cst Sat Mar 25 2006

.freeze Warning Now In Effect From 2 Am To 7 Am Cst Sunday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Freeze
Warning.which Is In Effect From 2 Am Tonight To 7 Am Cst Sunday
Morning.

Temps Will Fall To Freezing To A Few Degrees Below Freezing
Late Tonight. This Will Result In A Patchy Freeze Across The Freeze
Warning Area.

A Freeze Warning Means Sub-freezing Temps Are Imminent Or
Highly Likely. These Conditions Will Kill Crops & Other
Sensitive Vegetation.

$$

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-260615-
/o.ext.kmob.fr.y.0001.060326t0800z-060326t1300z/
Lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin-coastal Escambia-coastal Santa Rosa-
Coastal Okaloosa-
Including The Cities Of.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.
Fairhope.foley.spanish Fort.pensacola.ferry Pass.
Brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.myrtle Grove.
Pace.milton.gulf Breeze.wright.fort Walton Beach.
Niceville.destin.seminole.eglin Afb.valparaiso
406 Pm Cst Sat Mar 25 2006

.frost Advisory Now In Effect From 2 Am To 7 Am Cst Sunday.

A Frost Advisory Is In Effect From 2 Am Tonight To 7 Am Cst Sunday
Morning.

Temps Will Drop To The Mid To Upper Thirties Across The
Coastal Sections Of Sw Al & The Nw Fl
Panhandle. Patchy Frost Will Occur In This Area Late Tonight.

A Frost Advisory Means That Frost Is Possible. Sensitive Outdoor
Plants May Be Killed If Left Uncovered.

$$

ROLLTIDE

03-30-2006, 04:23 AM

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am For Southeast
Ms.southwest Al & The Nw Fl
Panhandle.

.light Southerly Winds Sending Gulf Moisture Into The Region Has
Allowed For Areas Of Dense Fog To Develop Across The Region. The
Dense Fog Will Persist Through The Early Morning Hrs.then
Dissipate By Mid Morning As The Sun Heats The Area.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-301500-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0011.060330t0905z-060330t1500z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
305 Am Cst Thu Mar 30 2006

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This Morning.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog
Advisory.which Is In Effect Until 9 Am Cst This Morning.

Areas Of Dense Fog With Visibilities Down To A Quarter Mile Have
Developed Across The Region. Until The Dense Fog Burns Off Later This
Morning.motorists Need To Be Prepared To Encounter Slow Moving
Vehicles & Allow Extra Time To Reach Their Destinations.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be Reduced
To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down. Use Your
Low Beam Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You.

ROLLTIDE

04-04-2006, 02:00 PM

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high around 75. North wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 74. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 54. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 10 mph.

ROLLTIDE

04-08-2006, 08:44 AM

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
833 AM CDT SAT APR 8 2006

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-081518-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-
833 AM CDT SAT APR 8 2006

.NOW...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONROEVILLE TO TENSAW
TO SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AROUND 40 MPH. THE
LINE WAS BROKEN...SO NOT ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN. THOSE THAT DO
RECEIVE RAIN CAN EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLE
SMALL HAIL. THE HAIL MAY BE LARGER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LINE
OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH.
$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alex

04-08-2006, 12:35 PM

So I take it that the severe weather bypassed Mobile to the north? There's tornado watches well to the east along the Interstate 10 corridor all the way over to Jacksonville. So the severe weather hits Crestview and Tallahassee and bypasses Mobile? How odd.

ROLLTIDE

04-08-2006, 12:46 PM

BALDWIN had a warning this morning !

ROLLTIDE

04-11-2006, 09:24 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high around 77. Calm wind becoming southeast between 5 and 10 mph.

ROLLTIDE

04-14-2006, 09:22 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
445 Am Cdt Fri Apr 14 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight). Sfc High Pres Continues To Settle
Over The N Central Gulf Today And Tonight Progged To Drift Eastward
And Weaken Through Monday. Aloft Mid To Upper Ridge Axis Over Tx And
The South Central Plains Will Drift East To Near The Tx/la Through
Tonight. With This Clear Skies And Warm Afternoon Temps Will
Continue. Closer To The Coast Afternoon Seabreeze Effects Will Keep
Conditions Slightly Cooler. For Tonight Continued Subsidence Aloft
Will Help Give Way To Patchy Fog For Most Areas By Early Fri
Morning. Will Continue To Use Current Mav Mos For Temps. /32

&&

.long Term...(friday Through Thursday). Mid To Upper Ridge Axis
Moves East Of The Cwfa By Sat Resulting In A Deeper Southerly Flow
Across The Region Over The Weekend And Early Next Week. This Pattern
Should Be The Onset Of More Seasonable Like Conditions Eventually
Giving Way To Higher Sfc Humidities And Sufficient Mid Level
Moisture For Possible Measurable Rain By Next Week. Latest Model
Guidance Suggests Possible Rain By Midweek As Next Upper Low And
Trailing Cold Front Move Across The Tn River And Se States. With
This The Best Chance Of Rain Will Be Over Northern Sections Of The
Cwfa During The Day On Wed...shifting Southward Towards The Coast
Along A Weakening Frontal Boundary Through Fri. Will Continue To Use
Mex Mos Guidance For Temps. /32

&&

.marine...weak High Pressure Centered Across The Northern Gulf Will
Drift Southeast Over The Next 48 Hours...and Reside Over Southern
Florida Through The Weekend Into The Middle Of Next Week. As A
Result...winds Will Generally Be Light With A Southerly Flow Setting
Up Each Afternoon And Evening...becoming West To Northwest During
The Overnight And Early Morning Hours...followed By A More
Established Onshore Flow Over The Weekend Into Early Next Week. Dry
Conditions Will Remain With Little Change In Seas Expected. /22

&&

.fire Weather...afternoon Relative Humidities Will Remain Above
Critical Thresholds Through Midweek. Otherwise No Concerns. /32

ROLLTIDE

04-16-2006, 06:01 AM

000
Fxus64 Kmob 160813
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
315 Am Cdt Sun Apr 16 2006

.short Term (today Through Tuesday)...not Much Change From
Saturday`s Forecast. Still Dry. Surface High Has Moved To South
Florida With Ridging Across Most Of Forecast Area. Low Level
Moisture Will Be Increasing Across The Area Through The Short Term.
Weak Boundary Is Expected To Move Into North Part Of Cwa Late In The
Period. Still Very Little Chance Of Any Precip In The Short Term.
Will Have Around 10 Percent In The Grids But Not Mention In Zones.
Like Saturday...winds Are Expected To Increase During The
Afternoon. Temperatures Will Be A Tad Bit Higher This Afternoon
Along The Coast And About The Same Across The Inland Areas As
Saturday. Stuck Close To Mav Temperatures. Will See Low Clouds And
Patchy Fog Again Tonight And Probably Monday Night. Still A Lot Of
Sunshine Expected During The Day Time.

&&

.long Term (wednesday Through Saturday)...weak Boundary Will Settle
Near The Area Wednesday And Thursday As A Weak Surface Low Moves
East Across The Southeast States And Passes Just North Of Forecast
Area. Still Limited Moisture And Chances For Any Precip Will Remain
Low. Another Weak Front Will Approach From The West Late Saturday
With Rain Chances Increasing A Little As Front Approaches. Will
Wait For Later Model Runs To See If This System Fizzles Out Before
Bringing Us Any Precip. Temperatures In The Long Term Will Remain
Above Normal.

&&

.marine...southerly Flow Will Continue For The Next Few Days. Will
Leave Up Small Craft Exercise Caution For The West Part Of The
Marine Area. Winds Should Remain In The 15-20 Knot Range Across
This Area Today As Gradient Between The Surface Low Over The Midwest
And The High Over South Florida Remains Tight. Weak Boundary Will
Stall Near The Coast Wednesday Night And Thursday Morning. Some
Areas Along The Near Shore Waters May See A Brief Period Of Offshore
Flow Thursday Morning But It Will Quickly Become Onshore During The
Day.

&&

.fire Weather...moisture Will Continue To Increase Today Through
Monday. Will See Wind Speeds Of Around 15 Mph Today And Again
Monday During The Afternoons Across Most Of The Area. Winds May Be
Gusty Along The Coastal Areas. This Will Cause Dispersion Indices
To Be High Both Today And Monday.

ROLLTIDE

04-18-2006, 07:55 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 180811
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RAIN CHANCES TODAY AGAIN APPEAR TO
BE SLIM TO NONE...AND SLIM WAS LAST SEEN ON THE BUS OUT OF TOWN.
ANY SHOWERS THAT POP UP TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL
WESTERLIES...A WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND DEEPER LAYERED
MOISTURE. MIDLEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AT BAY IN THE
NEAR TERM. IT VERY LIKELY COULD BE ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY
TEMP-WISE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FORECASTED FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATED IN THE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL KEEP READINGS IN CHECK. WE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INSOLATION RATES
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...SO MINIMAL IMPACT ON
TEMPS IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS. /05

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EARLY ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WE ARE LOOKING FOR LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS WARM DAYS...MILD NIGHTS AND
LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

WE HAVE BEEN COMMENTING THIS MORNING THAT THE PATTERN WE HAVE FOUND
OURSELVES IN FOR WEEKS NOW...WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE. WITH THAT
SAID...A GLIMMER OF HOPE ON THE HORIZON AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THE BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR INITIATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON THE
18/00 UTC RUN FOR THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME. WITH HIGHER DEGREE OF
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NOT BE
AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. /10

ROLLTIDE

04-19-2006, 05:41 AM

oday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming southwest between 10 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low near 64. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 85. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east.

Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 83. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. North wind around 10 mph becoming east.

ROLLTIDE

04-26-2006, 06:49 AM

His Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Southwest Alabama...inland
Southeast Mississippi...and The Western Portion Of The Florida
Panhandle.

.day One...today Through Tonight.

As A Series Of Systems Cross The Area Into Tonight...two Rounds Of
Thunderstorms Are Expected. The First Round Will Cross The Area This
Morning...with Hail And Damaging Winds The Main Threats From A Few
Severe Storms. Another Round Will Cross The Area This
Afternoon...with A A Few Again Possibly Becoming Severe. Hail And
Damaging Winds Are The Main Threats From The Storms Which Become
Severe.

These Systems Will Bring Moderate Southerly Winds With Them...
Bringing A Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents.

.days Two Through Seven...wednesday Through Monday.

Another Front Will Cross The Area Sunday...with Scattered
Thunderstorms Expected.

ROLLTIDE

04-28-2006, 04:46 PM

Urgent - Weather Message
Natl Weather Svc Mobile Al
430 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 28 2006

.wind Advisory In Effect From 9 Am To 7 Pm Saturday.

.an Area Of Low Pressure Across The Western Parts Tx Will Strengthen As It Moves North-northeast Toward The Midwest States This Weekend. Meanwhile.a High Pressure Ridge Axis Will Remain Anchored Across The Far Eastern U.s. States. Very Strong Se Winds Will Develop Across Portions Of Se Ms.
Southwest Al.& The Western Fl Panhandle Sat Morning.& Persist Until Around Sunset.

Alz051>053-061>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-290415-
/o.new.kmob.wi.y.0003.060429t1430z-060430t0000z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile- Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa- Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.prichard.
Saraland.bay Minette.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.
Fairhope.foley.spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.
Pensacola.ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.
Ensley.myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.
Crestview.wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.
Seminole.eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.
Beaumont.new Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.
Lucedale
430 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 28 2006

.the Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Wind Advisory.which Is In Effect From 9 Am To 7 Pm Cdt Saturday.

Very Strong Se Winds Will Develop Across Portions Of Southeast Ms.southwest Al.& The Western Fl Panhandle Sat Morning.& Persist Until Around Sunset. Winds Will Increase To 20 To 25 Mph By Mid Morning.with Peak Wind Speeds Between 25 To 30 Mph By Mid Afternoon. Higher Gusts Near 40 Mph Will Be Possible.especially Across The Al Coastal Counties.
Numerous Outdoor Activities.over Both Land & Water.may Be Adversely Affected By The Very Strong Winds.

A Wind Advisory Means That Sustained Winds Of 25 To 39 Mph Are Expected. Winds This Strong Can Make Driving Difficult.especially For High Profile Vehicles. Also.loose Objects Should Be Secured To Prevent Damage To Property & To Avoid Potential Personal Injury.

The Strong So. To Southeasterly Winds Will Promote Dangerous Rip Currents Along The Al & Nw Fl Beaches Through The Weekend. Some Minor Coastal Flooding Due To Increased Surf & High Wave Action May Cause Additional Problems For Residence Along The Immediate Coast.especially For Those On Dauphin Island & Other Areas That Have Been Adversely Affected By Past Hurricane Activity.
A High Surf Advisory May Be Required Later Tonight.

$$

ROLLTIDE

04-29-2006, 05:51 PM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
114 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 29 2006

Alz063-064-300215-
/o.can.kmob.cf.a.0001.000000t0000z-060430t0000z/
/o.new.kmob.su.y.0001.060429t1814z-060430t1800z/
Lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-
114 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 29 2006

...coastal Flood Watch Is Cancelled...
...high Surf Advisory In Effect Until 1 Pm Cdt Sunday...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A High Surf
Advisory...which Is In Effect Until 1 Pm Cdt Sunday. The Coastal
Flood Watch Has Been Canceled.

The Areas Most Prone To Higher Then Normal Surf In This Situation
Include...but Are Not Limited To...the West End Of Dauphin
Island...highway 193 North Of Dauphin Island Around Cedar Point...and
Along The Highway 90 Causeway Between Mobile And Spanish Fort. Some
Minor Coastal Flooding Is Also Possible Along The Alabama
Beaches...small Bays And Inlets Could Also See Above Normal Tidal
Wash Up.

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In The
Advisory Area...producing Rip Currents And Localized Beach Erosion.

$$

ROLLTIDE

04-30-2006, 09:06 PM

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-010300-
/o.can.kmob.wi.y.0003.000000t0000z-060501t0300z/
Lwr Mobile-lwr Baldwin-coastal Escambia-coastal Santa Rosa-
Coastal Okaloosa-
Including The Cities Of.tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.
Fairhope.foley.spanish Fort.pensacola.ferry Pass.
Brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.myrtle Grove.
Pace.milton.gulf Breeze.wright.fort Walton Beach.
Niceville.destin.seminole.eglin Afb.valparaiso
902 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 30 2006

.wind Advisory Is Cancelled.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Cancelled The Wind
Advisory.

$$

ROLLTIDE

05-02-2006, 08:40 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO VISIT MOBILE...
AS PART OF THE NOAA-NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2006 HURRICANE AWARENESS TOUR...A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND CREW WILL SPEND THE DAY IN MOBILE NEXT WEDNESDAY, MAY 3RD. SELECTED SCHOOL CHILDREN, LOCAL OFFICIALS, THE MEDIA, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TOUR THE AIRCRAFT AND TALK WITH THE FLIGHT CREW AS WELL AS WITH METEOROLOGISTS AND OTHER OFFICIALS ON BOARD THE PLANE.

THE PLANE WILL ARRIVE AT MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT...BATES FIELD...WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAY 3RD, AND WILL PARK NEAR THE MOBILE AIR CENTER JUST WEST OF THE MAIN TERMINAL BUILDING. FROM AIRPORT BLVD, THE AIRCRAFT CAN BE REACHED BY TURNING NORTH ON FLAVE-PIERCE ROAD, WHICH IS JUST EAST OF BAKER HIGH SCHOOL. SIGNS WILL BE PLACED ON AIRPORT BLVD IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT INDICATING THE LOCATION OF THE AIRCRAFT.

NOAA'S P-3'S FLY RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS INTO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS...INCLUDING HURRICANES...THAT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.
CRITICAL WEATHER INFORMATION GATHERED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS THEN USED BY NOAA'S NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI TO FORECAST THE INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE STORM.

VARIOUS DIGNITARIES WILL BE TRAVELING WITH THE P-3...INCLUDING MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...BILL PROENZA, DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S SOUTHERN REGION...AND DR. JIM MCFADDEN OF THE P-3 OPERATIONS CENTER. ALL WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS FROM APPROXIMATELY 1000 AM UNTIL 600 PM.

SEVERAL HUNDRED SCHOOL CHILDREN...MAINLY 4TH AND 5TH GRADERS...FROM SELECTED SCHOOLS WILL RECEIVE AN INTRODUCTION TO HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PRIOR TO TOURING THE PLANE. STUDENT INSTRUCTION AND TOURS WILL TAKE PLACE FROM 10 AM UNTIL 230 PM.

AFTER THE SCHOOL CHILDREN TOUR THE AIRCRAFT...IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR TOURS BY VIP'S FROM 230 PM TO 300 PM, AND OPEN TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC FROM 300 PM TO 500 PM.

ALSO ON DISPLAY AND AVAILABLE FOR TOURING WILL BE AN EMERGENCY RESPONSE VEHICLE AND COMMAND CENTER FROM THE PENSACOLA-ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. LOCAL RED CROSS WILL ALSO BE ON HAND FOR PREPAREDNESS ADVICE AND INSTRUCTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONTACT RANDY MCKEE OR GARY BEELER OF THE MOBILE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...AT 251-633-6443...OR RANDALL.MCKEE@NOAA.GOV OR GARY.BEELER@NOAA.GOV

ROLLTIDE

05-07-2006, 08:25 AM

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 82. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind around 5 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low near 65. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

ROLLTIDE

05-28-2006, 09:24 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 90. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Memorial Day: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming northwest between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low near 71. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

ROLLTIDE

05-29-2006, 10:38 PM

Fxus64 Kmob 292115
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
415 Pm Cdt Mon May 29 2006

.short Term (tonight And Tuesday)...storms Fired This Afternoon
Along Outflow From Last Nights Storms That Moved Into Southeast
Alabama. Satellite Imagery Indicates The Primary Focus For The
Storms (area Of Enhanced Moisture Convergence Just Ahead Of The Weak
Trough/outflow) Is Shifting Slowly West Into Southeast Mississippi
At This Time. We Have Advertised Scattered Pops This Evening Across
The Western Half Of The Forecast Area Closer To This Feature...and
This Should Diminish In Coverage And Intensity Just After Sunset.
For Tomorrow...we Carried Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms In The
Forecast Given Available Moisture But Not Much Focus Other Than
Lingering Outflows And The Seabreeze. /05

&&

.long Term (wednesday Through Next Monday)...upper Ridge Remains
Parked Across The Forecast Area Through Wednesday With Any Upper
Shortwaves Rotating Around The Ridge To The Northwest And North Of
Our Area. Little In The Way Of Pops Are Advertised Wednesday...but
We Bring Scattered Thunderstorms Back Into The Forecast For Thursday
Given A Fair Amount Of Convection To The North Early Thursday And
The Potential For Scattered Development Along Outflow Boundaries
Over The Inland Areas. We Continue To See An Upper Trough
Amplifying Over The Eastern States Thursday Through The
Weekend...and This Brings A Weakening Cold Front South To The Coast
By Saturday. We Maintain Better Chances Of Showers And
Thunderstorms Friday Through Saturday As This Front Moves South Into
The Area...then We Back Rain Chances Back To Isolated In Coverage
Sunday Through Early Next Week As The Front Settles Just Offshore
And Dissipates. This Is Fairly Closer To The Previous Forecast
Package. /05

&&

.marine...weak High Pressure Will Persist Across The Northern Gulf
Resulting In A Light Wind Flow Through Midweek. An Onshore Flow Will
Develop Each Afternoon...followed By An Offshore Flow Each Night. A
More Established Onshore Flow And Increasing Thunderstorm
Development Is Expected Late In The Week As A Cold Front Moves Into
The Southeast States. /13

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns At This Time. /05

Alex

06-03-2006, 11:43 AM

I arrived in town yesterday evening at the tale end of some thunderstorm activity stretching from Mobile all the way to Okaloosa County. The meat of it was near Milton, but I did note a great lightning strike over the city of Mobile. When I got to my exit (Exit 17), I noted that the traffic lights at the busy AL 193 and U.S. 90 intersection were flashing red. So I took my shortcut route behind the shopping center there and turned onto U.S. 90 east toward Knollwod Drive. When I got to Knollwood Drive, the traffic lights were turned off, then flickered on green, then turned off, then came back on flashing yellow and red. So people were treating it as a four-way stop. I made my northward turn after about 30 seconds, and then proceeded toward my destination off of Cottage Hill Road. Power was on there, but apparently the whole area suffered outages earlier from what Jana told me.

Anyway I checked the Mobile Register today and here is an article on the storms (http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/1149326351170910.xml&coll=3 ):
>>
Lightning injures two, burns homes
Saturday, June 03, 2006
By ANDY NETZEL and BETH MURTAGH
Staff Reporters

Four separate lightning strikes from a Friday afternoon storm destroyed two homes and injured two people. A friend of one of the victims said his buddy was pretty shaken up but never lost the grip on his beverage.

In all, 23 calls were made to the Mobile Fire-Rescue Department, said Capt. Debbie Bryars. Two homes in west Mobile were struck by lightning within minutes of each other from a storm system that stretched from Mississippi through all of Lower Alabama and into the western Florida Panhandle.

Friday afternoon, when the storm began, 24-year-old Patrick Caine ran out the front door of his Theodore home, said his friend Mike Cooney. Cooney did not witness the lightning strike but said he was relaying the events as told by Caine.

Caine grabbed his trash cans and brought them in from the curb. Beverage in hand, he grabbed a lawnmower that was sitting in the freshly cut yard, explained Cooney.

As soon as Caine grabbed the lawnmower, he saw a flash of light, Cooney said. When he awoke sprawled on his back, rain splattered on his face and the beverage was still in his hand perched atop his chest.

"Didn't spill a drop!" Cooney said.

Caine then headed to the refrigerator, where he placed his half-consumed drink.

"He told me he called his mom, then, and said, 'Don't freak out mom, but I got struck by lightning.'" Cooney said.

He apparently passed out again. The next thing he remembers are Fire Department officials waking him up, Caine told Cooney.

In his otherwise green lawn was a brown spot about the size of a softball, apparently caused by the lightning strike.

Cooney said Caine was still too shaken up to talk. He was treated at the scene.

Caine was experiencing pain in his arm, Cooney said, but had not gone to the hospital as of about 5 p.m.

The area the storms covered was larger than usual because of a weak front coming from the northwest, said Don Shepherd, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Mobile. The intensity was typical of a summer storm.

Quarter-sized hail accompanied the storms, Shepherd said. Wind gusts reached 60 mph.

The rain and lightning actually came from a cluster of several separate storms, Shepherd said. They moved south and east through Lower Alabama.

The Fire Department scattered 18 trucks throughout its coverage area so it could more quickly respond to dangers throughout the area, Bryars said.

The two major fires, however, occurred just blocks apart in the same subdivision. Both houses were destroyed after lightning struck nearby trees, sparking fires that left them in scorched ruins.

"It was gone when we got here," District Chief J.D. Young of Mobile Fire-Rescue said of the charred-black remains of 6509 Creekwood Court. Clarissa Mosley and her two grandchildren heard a loud boom while inside, Mosley said, and initially thought it was the burglar alarm going off. Then they saw the flames lick the living room curtains and spread to the sofa, Mosley said.

"We saw this big red light in the living room," said 9-year-old Tyler Hill, a navy blue towel draped around his shoulders. The grandmother was treated at the scene for smoke inhalation, but the others were unharmed.

No one was at home at 6613 Gaslight Lane when a similar scene played out there. The residents of the one-story brick home, a woman and her 10-year-old daughter, were not home at the time.

Capt. Jimmy Frank said he couldn't determine exactly where the lightning hit on Gaslight Lane fire, but it appeared to have struck the front yard tree and spread to the house.

Lightning injures about 10 people each year throughout the state and kills two people, said Shepherd, of the weather service.

A second person struck by lightning was on the telephone at Azar's Uniforms near Hank Aaron Stadium talking to her boss. Natalie Mathews, who manages the shop, said she didn't know the storm had begun when she picked up the phone in a storage room.

Mathews, 37, heard a pop, and felt pain in her jaw and down her spine. The phone and power cut off, she said. Beyond that, though, she said she feels pretty good.

"I feel lucky, and I thank God," she said. "Listen to what your grandma says during storms and stay off the phone."

ROLLTIDE

06-11-2006, 08:01 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 110909
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
400 Am Cdt Sun Jun 11 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...poorly Organized Tropical
Depression One Over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Will Continue
Northward Through Tonight. The Forecast Area Will Be Affected Only
Mildly By The System Through Tonight. Increasing Deep Layer
Moisture And An Onshore Flow This Afternoon Will Support Small Pops
Over The Southern Portion Of The Forecast Area But Otherwise Small
Rain Chances Remain Over The Coastal Waters. Temperatures Will
Remain Above Seasonable Levels. /29

&&

.long Term (monday Through Saturday)...tropical Depression One Turns
To The Northeast And Is Expected To Attain Minimal Tropical Storm
Status Before Moving Across The Northern Florida Peninsula Monday
Night Into Tuesday. Affects On The Area Remain Generally Minimal
With Mainly The Increased Deep Layer Moisture From The System
Supporting Small Pops Through Wednesday...mainly Over The Southern
Half Of The Area. For Thursday Through Saturday...continued With
Small Pops During The Daytime Hours For Isolated Sea Breeze
Initiated Convection. A Weak Surface Trof May Also Be Left Across
The Southeast States Associated With The Departing And Now
Extratropical System Moving Northward Over The Western Atlantic.
Temperatures Generally Remain Above Seasonable Levels. /29

&&

.marine....the Center Of Poorly Defined Tropical Depression One Was
Located Near Latitude 23.5 North...longitude 87.0 West Or About 335
Miles West Southwest Of Key West Florida...moving Northwest Around 8
Knots. The Depression Is Expected To Move North-northwest During The
Next 24 Hours. As A Result An East To Southeast Wind Flow Is
Expected To Increase Later Today And Tonight As The Center Of The
Tropical Depression Moves Further Northward Over The Lower Gulf.
Northerly Winds And Seas Will Gradually Subside Late Monday Through
Early Wednesday As The Depression Begins To Move In A More
Northeasterly Track And High Pressure Builds Over The North Central
Gulf. For Additional Information On Tropical Depression One...see
The Latest Products From The National Hurricane Center. /32

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns. Although Dry Air Will Mix Down Yet
Again This Afternoon...increased Ambient Moisture Will Keep Surface
Dewpoints High Enough To Keep Afternoon Relative Humidities Above
Critical Levels This Afternoon And Again Monday Afternoon. /29

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 93 73 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
Pensacola 93 76 94 77 / 10 10 20 10
Destin 90 77 92 78 / 20 10 20 20
Evergreen 96 70 96 71 / 10 10 10 10
Waynesboro 98 69 98 70 / 10 10 10 10
Camden 97 71 97 71 / 10 10 10 10

ROLLTIDE

06-12-2006, 03:40 AM

gh Surf Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
833 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-120945-
/O.EXT.KMOB.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-060613T1800Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
833 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 6
KNOTS OR 7 MPH. ALBERTO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
BY LATE TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING INCREASING EAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SWELL THIS EVENING...BRINGING OFFSHORE SWELLS OF 12 TO 15
FEET. THIS BRINGS RISK OF DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ON AREA BEACHES
AS WELL AS TIDES 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS...AND BEACH EROSION.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION.

$$

ROLLTIDE

06-23-2006, 03:54 PM

Tornado today at Gulf Shores AL .. I couldn't chase because of work :(

ROLLTIDE

06-25-2006, 02:02 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250307
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006

.UPDATED...JUST ISSUED AN UPDATED ZFP PACKAGE. REMOVED ALL EVENING
WORDING AS WELL AS ALL MENTIONING OF SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTION IS
WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME...ONLY LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE...LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED WITH EVENING UPDATE.

.MARINE...MOST WIND OBSERVATION PLATFORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA ARE
INDICATING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BUT STILL
EXPECT A GENERAL LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH UPCOMING EVENING
MARINE UPDATE.

12/SHEPHERD

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.................................

.SYNOPTIC DSCN...AT 24.18 UTC...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WV
PANHANDLE-NWRN MS-NERN TX. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY LOOP PAST 30 H SHOWS
LARGE DEVELOPING SWIRL OVER BAHAMAS GRADUALLY MOVING WWD TOWARDS FL
PENINSULA AND SIGNIFICANT S/WAVE DIVING SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LATTER DESCRIBED FEATURES WILL ACT TO FURTHER MOISTEN AND
DESTABILIZE OUR LOCAL AIRMASS THROUGH MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITH
DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION (E VERSUS W) IN COMPARING THIS
AFTERNOON TO YESTERDAY. DEEP CONVECTION WAS INITIATED OVER W ZONES
YESTERDAY. MORNING CLOUDS AND A VERY WET GROUND RETARDED SFC HEATING
OVER WEST...WHILE EAST RAPIDLY REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM
94-98F. EVALUATION OF LOCAL WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN
SHOWED RELATIVELY HIGH MLCAPES AND STEEP SFC- FRZG LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER ERN ZONES (I.E., E OF I-65). ANYWAY...THROUGH 04Z...LEFT MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES DUE TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE
PENNY-SIZED DIAMETER HAIL WITH SOME STORMS (MAINLY OVER NE 1/4 OF
ZONES). TNTS LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WOULD EXPECT PCDY-MCDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
ZONES). WINDS LGT/VRBL.

ON SUNDAY...AS BAHAMAS SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVG WWD...UPPER ENERGY
(AHEAD OF MAIN CENTRAL PLAINS S/WAVE) WILL MOVE OVER STATIONARY
FRONT (TO OUR W)...THEREBY FORCING SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR
REGION AS BROAD UPPER TROF EVOLVED OVER REGION. SIMPLY PUT...SUNDAY
SHOULD BE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL `OVER MOST OF OUR AREA`
COMPARED TO ANY DAY IN RECENT MEMORY AND POPS WILL SHOW IT. AS SFC
LOW MOVES N INTO SRN GA...CRCLN AROUND SYSTEM WILL DRAW STATIONARY
FRONT TO OUR W A LITTLE FARTHER S AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
COULD BE A DRY SLOT INVOLVED EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE SFC LOW BEGINS
MOVING NWD THROUGH SRN GA. AFTER THAT TIME...GFS HINTING AT OUR AREA
GETTING INTO BENT-BACK-PORTION OF COMMA HEAD AND SOME ADDITIONAL
STRATIFORM RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...AS BASE OF UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
MOVES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...SLOW DRYING SHOULD
OCCUR FROM THE W. FEEL THAT GFS IS A BIT `OVER-ZEALOUS` WITH DRYING
THUS HAVE RAISED SFC DEWPOINTS AND SLOWED DRYING TREND BY 6-12 H ON
AVERAGE. UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON TUES AS MAJOR UPPER L/WAVE
TROF PASSES TO OUR NE. SFC RIDGING OCCURS THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH UPPER
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC INTO WED. /23

THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED DSCN FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD: SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES RE- ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESUMING.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
RETURN TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. /22

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME N TO NE OVER MARINE AREA...WITH BRIEF
DIGRESSIONS TO ONSHORE DURG AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MARINE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

ROLLTIDE

06-26-2006, 11:55 AM

Had wind gust over 50 mph at the beach yesterday :) pics and video up very soon

ROLLTIDE

06-29-2006, 07:49 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
420 Am Cdt Thu Jun 29 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows High Pres
Building Over The Lower Ms River Valley And Se Conus. Current Wv
Loops Depict This Nicely With Big Dry Slot Pushing Eastward Across
The Lower Se Conus. To The West And Southwest High Cloudiness Mostly
From The Pacific Continues To Advect Eastward Over The Northern Gulf
Affecting Mainly Coastal Areas Of The Cwfa. As A Result The Main
Concern Through Tonight Will Be The Extent Of Cloud Cover Along W/
Afternoon And Early Morning Temps. Will Continue To Lean Towards The
Cooler Mav Mos For Now. /32

&&

.long Term (friday Through Next Thursday)...we Keep The Dry Pattern
Going Through Friday...then By Saturday With The Sfc-700 Mb Ridge
Setting Up To The East We Note A Greater Return Gulf Flow And
Gradually Increasing Moisture Depth. Isolated Convection Along The
Seabreeze Will Be Possible Saturday Afternoon. By Sunday...a Deeper
Moisture Depth With More Seasonable Precipitable Water Values
(around 2 Inches) Result In Greater Coverages Of Scattered
Thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon And Again On Monday. This Pattern Is
Expected To Continue On Into The Middle Of Next Week As A Weakening
Front Approaches From The Northwest By Wednesday Night. /05

&&

.marine...expect A Light Onshore Flow To Develop Later Today
Becoming Light And Variable Late Tonight. A Light Offshore Flow Will
Eventually Develop Shortly Before Sunrise. This Pattern Should Hold
Through Much Of The Weekend Followed By A Slightly Better Flow From
The East Beginning Early Next Week. /32

&&

.fire Weather...trended Dewpoint Forecast Over The Inland Areas
Closer To The Gfs Physical Solution Which Allows For Greater Drying
In The Mixed Boundary Layer This Afternoon. This Should Easily Get
Our Inland Florida Zones Into The Red Flag Warning Criteria...and As
For The Inland Zones Of Se Mississippi And S Alabama We Lack The
Element Of Sufficient Wind To Meet The Designated Criteria Of Each
State. We Will Be Introducing A Fire Weather Watch For Friday Over
The Inland Zones Of The Western Florida Panhandle For Rh Concerns.
/05

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 94 66 96 71 / 0 0 5 0
Pensacola 94 72 95 73 / 0 0 5 0
Destin 93 74 93 75 / 0 0 5 0
Evergreen 93 60 95 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 93 62 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 93 60 95 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...none.
Fl...red Flag Warning From 11 Am To 6 Pm Today For The Following
Zones: Inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa...and Inland
Santa Rosa.
Fire Weather Watch Noon Friday To 5 Pm Friday For The
Following Zones: Inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa...and
Inland Santa Rosa.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.

ROLLTIDE

07-02-2006, 01:00 PM

Ulletin - Eas Activation Requested
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1254 Pm Cdt Sun Jul 2 2006

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For...

Mobile County In Southwest Alabama

* Until 145 Pm Cdt

* At 1250 Pm Cdt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A
Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing Penny Size Hail...and
Damaging Winds In Excess Of 60 Mph. This Storm Was Located Near
Brookley Field Airport...or About 7 Miles South Of Downtown
Mobile...and Moving Northwest At 10 Mph.

* The Severe Thunderstorm Will Be Near...
Brookley Field Airport By 110 Pm Cdt
I10 And I65 Intersection By 115 Pm Cdt
Ladd Stadium And Downtown Mobile By 120 Pm Cdt
Airport And Government And Knollwood Hospital By 125 Pm Cdt

This Is A Dangerous Storm. If You Are In Its Path...prepare For
Damaging Winds...large Hail...and Deadly Cloud To Ground Lightning.
Take Cover In A Sturdy Shelter Until The Storm Has Passed.

In Addition To Large Hail And Damaging Winds...continuous Cloud To
Ground Lightning Is Occurring With This Storm. Move Indoors
Immediately! Lightning Is One Of Natures Number One Killers.
Remember...if You Can Hear Thunder...you Are Close Enough To Be
Struck By Lightning.

Lat...lon 3053 8806 3061 8800 3078 8812 3068 8826

$$

ROLLTIDE

07-05-2006, 06:29 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 050815
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...POPS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM. CURRENTLY...LAST EVENING`S UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AND THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW OUR TWO PROBLEM
CHILDREN...AN UPPER LOW OVER TX AND ANOTHER OFF THE EAST FL COAST.
ALSO SHOWING ON THE UPPER AIR MAPS IS A CLOSE LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY...WITH ABUNDANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY CLIMBING THE WEST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE UPPER PATTER HAS CREATED A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING
FROM SE NM TO AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE AIRMASS WEST OF THE MISS/AL STATE LINE IS PRETTY SOUPY...EXCEPT
FOR OUR NEIGHBOR TO THE EAST THE ONLY STATION REPORTING A PRECIP H20
LEVEL(0.99") BELOW 1"(1.25" FOR THAT MATTER).

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES TO TEXAS SLOWLY SAGS
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY ALSO BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST BY
TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH THIS...RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKE A BETTER
BET THIS WEEK THAN LAST. WILL SEE ONE MORE RATHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY BEFORE THE JUST MENTIONED CHANGES OCCUR...WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST AND NORTH THAN EAST
AND SOUTH. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO MAV MOS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
/12

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING THE TX
AND FL CIRCULATIONS GETTING DRAWN TOWARDS MEAN UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS/GULF OF MX...THEN THE TX SYSTEM HEADS SOUTH AROUND
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...AND THE FL SYSTEM HEADING
NORTHEAST...GETTING CAUGHT UP FRIDAY IN A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING IT STALLING
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT IS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR TSRA INITIATION NEAR THE COAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER...WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. THE
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND WILL HELP TO LESSEN PRECIP MOVING NORTH FROM THE
COAST UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
HAVE CONCENTRATED BEST POPS TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN TRENDING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE CLIMO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OVER THE ENTIRE FA.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO COASTAL WATERS FCST WITH THIS
MORNINGS ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...A PRIMARILY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY... BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED (IF ANY) FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES QUICKLY
REBUILDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...GENERALLY REMAINING 2
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD(WETTER THAN WE`VE HAD SO FAR) AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE FA...HELPING TO FIRE OFF DAILY SHRA/TSRA
IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THINGS
WILL DRY OUT INLAND AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN EFFECT BY SATURDAY...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH
OUT AND COASTAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INLAND...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
COASTAL TSRA MOVING/FORMING INLAND AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 73 90 72 90 / 40 30 60 30 40
PENSACOLA 91 76 91 74 90 / 20 20 40 30 30
DESTIN 91 77 90 75 90 / 20 20 40 30 30
EVERGREEN 93 71 89 68 92 / 20 20 60 30 30
WAYNESBORO 95 72 86 67 89 / 40 50 60 30 30
CAMDEN 94 73 89 67 95 / 30 30 60 30 20

&&

ROLLTIDE

07-06-2006, 08:37 AM

Today: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

ROLLTIDE

07-17-2006, 09:31 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 171002
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
500 Am Cdt Mon Jul 17 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows A Weak
Frontal Boundary Generally North Of The Cwfa Stretching From East
Central Al To Near Kbmx To Kgtr In Ms Then S To Near Kpib. South Of
This Boundary Dewpts Were In The Lower 70s Inland And In The Mid 70s
Along The Immediate Coast. Aloft Latest Ruc Analysis Overlayed On
Current W/v Loops Show A Weak H5 Low Over The Adjacent Gulf Waters
Of Al And Ms With A Weak Trof Extending From The Low Into Southern
Sections Of Ms And La. Latest Gfs And Nam Model Solutions Depict
This H5 Low To Drift West To Near The Mouth Of The Ms River Through
Tues. With This And Better Flow From The South Developing Later
Today Expect Another Round Of Showers And Thunderstorms Developing
Mostly Over The Southern Half Of The Cwfa. The Best Chance Of Rain
Will Occur Near And Along A Weak Seabreeze Circulation Generally
Affecting Much Of The Nwfl Stretching West Into Mobile And Baldwin
Counties And Southern Sections Of Se Ms. With Pws Still Above 2
Inches South Of The Frontal Boundary Expect Locally Heavy Rainfall
With Most Of The Stronger Cells Developing Late This Morning.
Initial Movement Of These Storms Should Be Ne Around 10 Mph. Will
Stay Close To The Warmer Mavmos For Temps. /32

(tuesday And Wednesday)...upper Low Will Develop Into Open Wave Over
The Western Gulf As It Continues To Move Away From The Area.
However...series Of Weak Disturbances Will Continue To Round The
Southeast Quadrant Of A Large Upper High Pressure System That Is
Dominating The Western Two-thirds Of The Conus. Weak East-west
Oriented Surface Boundary Will Remain Somewhere Across The Forecast
Area. Too Difficult To Define Exact Position As There Are Position
Discrepancies In Models Handling This Mainly Mesoscale Feature...but
It Should Likely Be Across The Southern Half. Precipitable Water
Values Lower Slightly...ranging From 1.5 Inches Ne To To 2.0 Inches
Sw. Best Chance Of Precip Will Remain Across The Southern Portions
Of The Forecast Area Closer To The Wavering Boundary And Deeper
Moisture...mainly Late Morning And Afternoon. Isolated Showers And
Storms Should Persist Into Early Evening...with Isolated To
Scattered Coverage During The Night Time Hours Over The Coastal
Waters And Hugging The Coast. Stayed Close To The Mav Guidance. /22

.long Term (thursday Through Sunday)...atmospheric Moisture
Gradually Increases Through The Extended Period....with Pw Values
Back Near 2.00 Inches Across The Entire Cwa By Friday. Upper High
Slowly Pulls Back To The West As Upper Longwave Trough Become
Established Across The Northeast States. Will Continue To See A
Daily Occurrence Of Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms During The
Late Morning And Afternoon Hours...with Isolated Coverage Lasting
Into Early Evening. /22

&&

.marine...winds Will Generally Shift South Later Today In Response
To H5 Low Shifting West. This Should Bring Better Moisture
Convergence Near The Existing Boundary Inland Giving Way To
Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Initiating Over The Adjacent
Gulf Waters And Along The Coast. A Light Southerly Wind Flow Will
Persist Through Tues Becoming Mostly West To Southwest Later In The
Week. Little Change In Seas Is Expected. /32

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 94 75 93 75 / 50 30 30 20
Pensacola 93 77 92 76 / 40 30 30 20
Destin 92 79 89 79 / 40 30 30 20
Evergreen 95 74 95 71 / 40 30 30 10
Waynesboro 95 73 95 73 / 30 30 30 20
Camden 97 77 96 73 / 40 30 30 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...none.

ROLLTIDE

07-20-2006, 08:35 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMOB 201004 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WEAK VORT MAX (MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE) LOCATED AT 09Z JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBUS GA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST TODAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE
NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PERIODIC ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH GA AND EAST CENTRAL AL
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WEAK VORT MAX SLIDES SOUTHWEST...WE EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING MAX HEATING TODAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF
SOUTH ALABAMA. AGAIN...THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST VERTICAL
MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD GET HEFTY PRODUCING SUDDEN DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS
TOTALING 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS INLAND AND CLOSER TO MAV MOS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /05

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SFC RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS H5 TROF AND TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. BY SAT TROF AXIS MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF AL AND MS. WITH THIS PATTERN A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL KICKERS WILL LIKELY MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVING WAY TO BETTER
MID LEVEL FORCING...LIKELY LEADING TO BETTER CONVERGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN ALOFT AND
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BEGINNING SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO THE COAST WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL HELP INITIATE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE ALSO DUE TO
THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. BY LATE IN THE PD SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE IS NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROF
LIFTING OFF TO THE NE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LOAD 00Z MEXMOS
THROUGH THE PD. /32

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SETTLES OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF
THE COAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL ALSO BE ADVERTISING A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN
10 TO 15 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A LARGE AFTERNOON EBB TIDE OF
1.5 TO 2 FT. /05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. /32

ROLLTIDE

07-21-2006, 05:30 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 210924
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
420 Am Cdt Fri Jul 21 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Upper Air Analysis
Continues To Reflect A Mid Level Ridge From The Four Corners Of The
Desert Southwest Stretching Eastward Into The Southeast. Atop The
Ridge...we See A Series Of Convective Complexes And Concentrated
Lightning Returns. The First Was Moving Southeast Through The Ohio
River Valley And The Other Moving Across The Central Plains. These
Thunderstorms Are The Result Of Upper Level Energy...which
Eventually Causes The Eastern Periphery Of The Upper Ridge Over The
Southeast To Erode. Upper Troughing Into The Mid And Lower
Mississippi River Valley Replaces The Ridge By Late Tonight. Surface
Front From The Upper Midwest Back Into The Central Plains Is
Forecast To Slide Slowly Southeast As Upper Level Support Also Digs
Southeast.

From A Diagnosis Of The Latest Environmental Temperature/dewpoint
Profiles...we Do See A Drop Off In Precipitable Water Values As We
Head From The Southwest To The East And Northeast Across The
Forecast Area. We Note However...an Elongated Mid Level Shear Axis
Over The Area And Moisture Values...although Somewhat Lower
Today...continues To Support A Small Chance Of Thunderstorms. Storms
That Initiate And Become Strong...will Have The Potential Of
Producing Brief Strong Wind Gusts From 30 To 40 Mph...frequent
Lightning...locally Heavy Rains And Small Hail. A Few Storms Could
Also Become Briefly Severe. /10

.long Term (saturday Through Next Friday)...it Is Still Looking Like
The Midlevel Trough Amplification Setting Up To The West Will Help
Drive A Weakening Frontal Boundary South To Our Interior Zones Late
Saturday Into Sunday. This Results In Increased Thunderstorm
Chances...more Cloud Cover...and Max Temps In The Upper 80s To Lower
90s For The Weekend Into The Early Part Of Next Week (mex Even Has
Likely Pops Most Zones On Sunday). The Stalled Boundary Just North
Of The Coast Dissipates Early Next Week...with The Western Atlantic
Ridge Building Slightly West By Next Wednesday. The Long Range
Pattern Past Tuesday Has A Deeply Moist Airmass On The Western
Periphery Of The Western Atlantic Ridge Working Inland Over Our
Area. This Will Likely Result In A More Seasonable Pattern Of
Scattered Thunderstorms Offshore At Night Working Their Way Onshore
During The Daytime. The Long Range Temp Projections From The Mex
Also Show The Max Temp Values In The Upper 80s To Lower 90s
Continuing Through Next Week...which Fits The Expected Synoptic
Pattern As Well. /05

&&

.marine...high Pressure Ridge Continues From The Southwest Atlantic
Into The Central Gulf This Weekend. A Frontal Boundary Is Forecast
To Move Into The Southern States And Stall North Of The Coastal
Waters Late In The Weekend. With The Front Nearby...southwest
Gradient Winds Look To Increase Slightly Into The Weekend And Early
Next Week. Weekend Beachgoers Should Be Aware That A Bit More Wind
From The Southwest Increases The Rip Current Risk. No Major Changes
To Seas. /10

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns At This Time. /05

&&

ROLLTIDE

07-22-2006, 01:28 PM

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
119 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-222015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
ESCAMBIA INLAND-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-
119 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.NOW...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT 100 PM...MOST OF THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY NEAR SEMINOLE...EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER SANTA
ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM. THE STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA BAYS AND
WATERWAYS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS...
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS. ANY OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE
AREA...BOATERS ON AREA BAYS AND THE GULF WATERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
RESULTING IN LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

IF OUTDOORS AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SHELTER QUICKLY...AS LIGHTNING CAN BE A THREAT TO YOUR SAFETY EVEN
IF THE THUNDERSTORM IS MANY MILES AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION. DURING
AND FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS...ROADWAYS MAY HAVE PONDING WATER WHICH CAN
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF HYDROPLANING.

ROLLTIDE

07-25-2006, 12:23 PM

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ECI8.JPG

Come on move NE :)

ROLLTIDE

07-26-2006, 06:04 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 260944
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
444 Am Cdt Wed Jul 26 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...the Latest Surface Analysis Shows
That The Surface Ridging Has Continued To Slowly Shift Northward And
Is Now Stretched Across The Northeastern Gulf To Southern
Louisiana. The Associated Deep Layer Ridging Pattern Weakens Just
Slightly Today Then Strengthens Again Tonight As A Tropical
Disturbance Near The Southeast Texas Coast Shifts Northward. The
Gradual Westward Shift Of Favored Convective Development Of The Last
Couple Of Days Continues Resulting In Lower Pops Today And
Tonight...and With Higher Pops Over The Western Portion Of The
Forecast Area. Temperatures Will Be Near Seasonable Levels. /29

.long Term (thursday Through Tuesday)...through The End Of The
Week...weather Will Be Influenced By An Upper Level Ridge Of High
Pressure That Extends From The Southwest Atlantic...westward Across
The Southeast And Northern Gulf. We Notice The Best Deep Layer
Moisture Profiles Being Nudged To The West Of Us...from Southeast
Texas Up Through Arkansas And The Tennessee River Valley Where The
Highest Coverages Of Showers And Thunderstorms Will Be. We Look To
Be More Into A Diurnal Summer Regime Of Isolated To Scattered
Thunderstorm Activity Early On. By The Weekend. By The Weekend...upper Level
Troughing Into The Lower Mississippi River Valley And The Presence
Of A Weak Surface Trough Of Low Pressure Over The Southern
States...suggests The Potential For Slightly Higher Coverages Of Much
Needed Rains.

The Tropical Prediction Center Is Watching An Easterly Wave Forecast
To Move Into The Lesser Antilles Through Thursday. The Wave Comes
Westward Through The Greater Antilles Over The Weekend. The Gfs Takes
A Weak Surface Low From This Wave Northward To Off The East Coast Of
Florida Late Sunday Then To Off The Southeast Coast Monday. The
Canadian...ukmet...and Ecmwf Have Higher Mid Level Heights From The
Southwest Atlantic Westward. This Would Take The Easterly Wave On A
More Westerly Course Across The Western Caribbean And Through The
Southern Gulf Late In The Period. The Tropical Prediction Center
Anticipates No Development At This Time.

Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Exists Each Day With Max/mins
Close To Climatology. /10

&&

.marine...the Surface Ridge Over The Marine Area Shifts Slowly
Northward As Advertised...into The Inland Area On Friday Where It
Remains Through Saturday. The Gfs Appears To Be Alone In Moving The
Tropical Wave Currently East Of The Lesser Antilles To Across The
Florida Peninsula On Sunday...but Will Need To Keep A Keen Eye On
This Feature. Elsewhere...the Tropical Disturbance Along The Far
Western Gulf Coast Of Mexico Does Not Appear To Have Much Of An
Affect On The Marine Area As It Lifts To The North With No
Significant Development Expected At This Time. So...a Mainly Light
Onshore Flow Continues Over The Marine Area Through The
Weekend...with Little Change In Seas. /29

ROLLTIDE

07-29-2006, 02:20 PM

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
206 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291958-
BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
WILCOX-
206 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANAHDNLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGH 3 PM...THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL BRING
RAINFALLS OF UP TO TWO INCHES...AL0NG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.
TO SOUTHERN WILCOX AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES.
$$

ROLLTIDE

07-29-2006, 02:22 PM

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
550 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 4 2006
...climate Summary...

.mobile...

Drought Conditions Continued In June Across The Gulf Coast. Mobile
Recorded 2.91 Inches Of Rain...2.10 Inches Below The Normal Of 5.01
Inches. This Marks The 10th Straight Month Of Below Normal Monthly
Rainfall Dating Back To Last September.

Top Five Driest-june
1902...0.53
1930...0.56
1931...0.65
1907...1.13
1966...1.19

Through The End Of June Mobile Had Recorded Only 14.89 Inches Of
Rain...this Was 19.33 Inches Below The Normal Of 34.22 Inches. This
Amount Is Also Running Below Our Last Major Dry Year In 2000...which
Ended Up Being The 8th Driest Year On Record. During The Same Time
Period Last Year Mobile Had Recorded 38.23 Inches...or 23.34 Inches
Above This Year`s Total.

Top Five Driest Years
1938...37.15
1904...39.50
1954...42.35
1890...42.51
1968...43.96

...mobile Records Date Back To 1841...

ROLLTIDE

07-31-2006, 09:14 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 310933
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
429 Am Cdt Mon Jul 31 2006

.short Term....charts This Morning Continue To Look Like Previous
Couple Of Mornings With Bermuda High Ridging Over The Southeastern
States And Northern Gulf...with A Trof Of Low Pressure Extending
South Down The East Coast Into Northern Georgia. A Weak Upper Level
Trof Than Moved South Across Alabama Yesterday Is Now Just South And
East Of The Fcst Area. Expect Similar Weather Today As Yesterday.
Outflow Boundaries From Previous Day Convection...aided By
Instability Afternoon Heating And Sea Breeze Interactions Near The
Coast Which Would Bring Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Again
Today. We Don`t Think It Will Be Quite As Active As Yesterday
Afternoon Since The Upper Level Trof Has Drifted To Our South And
East And Mid/upper Level Ridging Will Be Building Slightly...and Due
To The Fact That We Don`t Have Another Mesoscale Thunderstorm
Complex Upstream Of Us This Morning. We Do Look For A High Chance Of
Showers And Thunderstorms Across The Region However...with Most
Activity Initially Occurring Near The Coast...gradually Becoming
More Likely Over Interior By Late Morning Lasting Into The
Afternoon. Stayed Close To Mavmos Temp Guidance. /12

&&

.marine...little Change To Coastal Waters Fcst This Morning As
Surface High Pressure Ridge Over The Southeastern States And
Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico Will Remain In Place Through Most Of The
Week. This Will Result In A Continued Light (10 Knot) Primarily
Southwesterly Wind Flow Through Late Week...with Slightly Higher 10
To 15 Knot Flow Near Shore And Over Area Bays Each Afternoon In
Association With The Sea Breeze Circulation. Little Change In Seas
Expected. /12

12/shepherd

&&

.long Term...little To No Changes In The Offingin This Typical
Summer Weather Seabreeze Regime Dominating The Mesoscale Picture
Through The First Weekend In August. Repeated Scattered Daytime
Convection Diminishing At Night. Continuing Low Pop Forecast Now.
Temperatures Will Continue Close To Normal For July/august.stayed
Close To Mexmos Temp And Pop Guidance. /77

&&

.fire...no Concerns. /77

&&

ROLLTIDE

08-01-2006, 05:23 AM

ea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMOB 010930
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 AM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRES...OR A SHEAR AXIS...OVER CENTRAL AL
STRETCHING SW TO NEAR KMOB. TO THE SOUTH AND AND EAST WEAK HIGH
PRES CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF GIVING WAY
TO A LIGHT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. LATEST
PROGGS BOTH THE GFS AND RUC SUGGEST A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
KMOB STRETCHING FROM NEAR KCEW IN NWFL TO LUCEDALE AND HATTIESBURG
IN MS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TODAY IN THESE AREA.
DIURNAL PCPN TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST PCPN ENDING BY MID
EVENING TONIGHT. MAVMOS TEMPS LOOKED OK. /32

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK SHEAR
AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
WEAKENED...SO EXPECT POPS TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN PCPN HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE AND PUSH IT
SOUTH OUT OVER THE GULF. EVEN WITH THIS...DO NOT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR NOW
LOOK FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PCPN TRENDS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. USED MEXMOS GUIDANCE FOR LONG TERM PERIOD FCST TEMPS.
EYES WILL POSSIBLY BE TURNING TOWARD THE TROPICS BY THE WEEKEND AS
THINGS ARE GRADUALLY HEATING UP THERE. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BEING IN THE
VICINITY OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF CHRIS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...BUT IT WILL VERY POSSIBLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /12

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
MARINE AREA. /32

&&

.FIRE...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALONG
WITH RATHER MOIST AIRMASS...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CONCERNS OR
HEADLINES WITH FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. /12

ROLLTIDE

08-05-2006, 08:47 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 050838
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. THE FRONT WAS WITHIN
A WEAK BUT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAME AREA. UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNRISE. /11

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS
UPPER SHORTWAVE INSPIRED MCS MOVING OVER AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. AT THE CURRENT RATE...EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM TO BE WEST OF THE FA BY NOONTIME. QUESTION FOR FOLLOWING
PRECIP GENERATION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH HEATING AFTER THE MCS
PASSES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA? GUIDANCE SAYS YES...AND WITH
TRAILING BOUNDARIES COMBINING WITH THE GULF BREEZE...AM EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRYER AIR
OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR...EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO BE CLOSE TO THE
COAST...THEN SHIFT WEST AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVES CONTINUES WESTWARD.
/16

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY WILL HAVE
DRIFTED WEST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND AN UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOWN A BIT FOR A FEW DAYS. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S AND
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES UNCOMFORTABLE. GUIDANCE HAS POPS BACK INTO
THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE BY MID WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE UPPER HIGH
STILL IN THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE
SOME STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. GFS
SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
NEXT WEEK...ONE OF WHICH IS LIKELY THE REMANNTS OF T.D. CHRIS...BUT
TOO FAR SOUTH TO DISTURB THE LOCAL WEATHER. /11

&&

.MARINE...UPPER SHORTWAVE INSPIRED MCS MOVING OVER AL/NW FL COASTAL
WATERS LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE MCS
WILL START OUT WITH A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. FROM THERE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL TAKE OVER...WITH A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE
FLOW INTO MONDAY. AS OF NOW... REMAINS OF T.D. CHRIS PASSES SOUTH OF
THE MARINE FA MONDAY...MODELS INDICATING SOME REDEVELOPMENT...WITH
SOME HIGH SEAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO SWELL. WNAWAVE AND
GWW HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SWELLS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY ON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER...WITH A
LIGHT SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 93 76 93 75 / 50 20 30 10
PENSACOLA 90 77 93 77 / 40 10 20 10
DESTIN 91 79 93 79 / 40 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 94 73 94 73 / 40 20 20 10
WAYNESBORO 93 71 94 74 / 40 30 30 10
CAMDEN 98 72 96 74 / 40 30 20 10

&&

ROLLTIDE

08-06-2006, 10:52 AM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
915 Am Cdt Sun Aug 6 2006

Alz051>064-flz001>006-gmz630-msz067-075-076-078-079-061630-
Mobile Bay-baldwin Coastal-baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-
Conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-escambia Coastal-escambia Inland-
George-greene-mobile Coastal-mobile Inland-monroe-okaloosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Coastal-santa Rosa Inland-stone-
Washington-wayne-wilcox-
915 Am Cdt Sun Aug 6 2006

.now...
National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicates Scattered Mainly
Light To Occasionally Moderate Showers Moving Northward Across
Coastal Alabama And Florida. Rainfall Amounts With These Showers
Will Generally Remain Below A Quarter Of An Inch. Through The Late
Morning And Into The Early Afternoon Additional Showers And
Thunderstorms Will Develop Inland Across Southeast Mississippi...
Southwest Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle.

Some Of The Thunderstorms This Afternoon Could Become Strong With
Wind Gusts Of 35 To 45 Mph...frequent Cloud To Ground Lightning And
Very Heavy Rain. Rainfall Amounts Could Exceed One To Two Inches
Per Hours In The Stronger Thunderstorms.

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ROLLTIDE

08-07-2006, 12:18 PM

Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
425 Am Cdt Mon Aug 7 2006

.synopsis...for The Current Forecast...pops Are Shaping Up To Be The
Biggest Bear To Forecast. Reasons Are The Small Whirls Of Drier Air
Whirling Around Over The Gulf Of Mx/se-ern Conus/lower Miss River.
Taking A Step Back...the Current Upper Air Analysis Showers A
Shortwave Over N-ern Tx...another Off The Southeast Coast...closed
Lows Off The California Coast And Another Moving Over Ontario...all
Circulating Around An Upper Ridge Centered Over The Southeastern
Conus To Varying Extents. In The Lower Levels Of The Atmosphere...the
Ontario System Has Pushed A Surface Front Southward...running From Se
Co To Ne Of The Great Lakes. Surface High Pressure Stretching From
Over The Southeastern Conus To The Tx Coast Was Dominating The
Synoptic Patter...with A Light...general Onshore Flow Stretching
From The Fa West To The Tx/mx Border. The Remains Of Chris Were
Moving Over The Central Gulf Of Mx At This Time...with Another
Easterly Wave Noted Over The Central Tropical Atlantic.

As Mentioned Above...there Are Little Whirls Of Drier Air Moving
Through The Flow Around The Lower Level Ridge. These Pools Of Drier
Air Are Most Noticeable After The Cloud Debris From The
Afternoon/evening Thunderstorms Dissipates. The Nam Analysis Seems To
Have Better Picked Up On These Pools.

&&

.short Term(today Through Tonight)...upper High Pressure Centered
Over Northern Georgia Will Gradually Move West Toward Northern
Mississippi Today And Tonight. Precipitable Water Values Will Climb
Back Above Two Inches Across Most Of The Forecast Area As Mid Level
Subsidence Relaxes. The Combination Of The Increasing Moisture And
Instability...along With A Developing Sea Breeze...will Be The
Driving Force Today. This Will Bring A Higher Coverage Of Showers
And Thunderstorms Compared To Yesterday. Highest Coverage Should Be
Across The Southern Half Of The Forecast Area...further Away From
The Influences Of The Upper High Pressure. Models Vary In Coverage
With The Nam Ranging From 20% North To 40% South...and The Gfs
Ranging From 40% North To Near 70% South. Not Quite Sure How Much
Influence Upper High Will Have On The Coverage...so Settled For A
Blend Of The Two Models. However...would Not Be Surprised To See
Some Areas Along The Coast Seeing Likely Coverage By Days End. The
Showers And Storms Should Push Further Inland Through The Afternoon
Hours. The Activity Will Settle Down Pretty Quick Early In The
Evening With Loss Of Surface...with Clearing Skies Overnight. A Few
Showers Should Redevelop Across The Coastal Waters And Hug The
Coast...so Left Isolated Coverage South Of I-10. The Nam And Gfs
Temperature Guidance Are Nearly Identical...so No Big Departures
Needed. Highs Will Range From The Lower 90s South To The Mid 90s
North...with Lows In The 72 To 78 Degree Range. /22

.long Term (tuesday Through Monday)...for Tuesday Into
Wednesday...the Models Are Advertising A Series Of Shortwave Systems
Digging An Upper Trough Off The Eastern Seaboard...shoving The Upper
Ridge West...to Over The Desert Southwest/southern Plains By
Wednesday Morn. By Thursday Morn...this Upper Trough Has Meandered
Westward To Over The Eastern Seaboard. Models Beginning To Diverge
Fri...with The Gfs Advertising The Continued Westward Progression Of
The Upper Trough...with The Ecmwf/ukmo Keeping The Trough Over The
Central/eastern Gulf Of Mx.

In Response To The Upper Dynamics...models Are Advertising The
Surface Boundary/trough Sinking South. Through Wednesday...the
Boundary Moves To The I-20 Corridor Before Stalling. Surface High
Pressure Gets Pushed South Through The Week...ending Up Stretching
West Over The Central And Southern Gulf Of Mx.

As Mentioned Above...the Short Range Models Differ In The Handling
Of The Moisture. Last Evening`s Sounding Confirm What The Goes
Sounder Is Pointing Out; There Is A Dry Slug Of Air Over
Al/ms....along With The Tenn River Valley. Through Mid Week...the
Gfs Is Advertising The Northern Gulf Coast To North Of I-20
Remaining Under A Humid Airmass...whilst The Nam/wrf Concentrated
The Moisture Along The Coast. With The Nam Better In
Initialized...and The Gfs Much Moisture Than The Obs Would
Suggest...have Toned Down The Mav Pops...taking A Mav/met Blend
Tuesday Into Wednesday. Temps Are Pretty Close...so Haven`t
Deviated.

&&

.marine...fairly Quiet Pattern In The Easterly Continue Across The
Coastal Waters As Deep High Pressure Remains Across The Southeast
States. A Tropical Wave Several Hundred Miles South Of The Coast
This Morning Will Move Across The Western Gulf Through
Tonight...followed By A Second Wave That Will Enter The Southeast
Gulf On Tuesday And Then Move Across The Southern Gulf Through Mid
Week. Higher Sustained Winds Across The Central Gulf Associated With
The Waves Will Likely Send A Few Six Second Period Swells Our Way
Early In The Week With Seas Up To 3 Feet. Otherwise...the Surface
High Pressure Ridge Will Then Migrate South And Rest Across Eastern
Gulf Mid Week And Beyond. A Light Onshore Flow Should Persist...but
May Be Variable At Times During The Overnight Hours...with Seas
Settling Back To Two Feet Or Less. /22

&&

.fire Weather...same Ole Story...with A Moist Airmass Over The Area
Allowing For Daily Thunderstorms To Fire Off Along The Coast. How
Far Inland They Spread Is A Different Story...with Less Moisture
Inland Providing Less Fuel...so Less Of A Chance For Rain. Don`t See
Any Problems With Low Rh Or High Dispersions Through Mid Week.

&&

ROLLTIDE

08-09-2006, 11:10 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 090932
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
432 Am Cdt Wed Aug 9 2006

.synopsis...for The Current Forecast...several Items To Deal With In An
Active Upper Pattern. Currently...a Strong Upper Ridge Was Located
Over The Southern Plains/lower Miss River Valley. A Series Of
Shortwaves Moving Over The Northern Conus/ca Have Dug A Trough Off The
East Coast. These Shortwaves...rotating Around An Upper Low Along The
Northern British Columbia Coast. Of Immediate Interest To The Current
Forecast Is A Shortwave Over The Fl Gulf Coast...currently On A
Westerly Track To Over The Gulf Of Mx. Surface High Pressure Over The
Northern Conus Has Shifted East Over The Last Day....to Over The
Great Lakes/mid Atlantic Region...with Ridge Stretching West Over The
Southeastern Conus Starting To Weaken...as Surface Front/trough Has
Been Shifted South Over The Eastern Conus To Over Tn/nc According To The
1 Am Surface Analysis. Airmass Over The Southeastern Conus And Lower
Miss River Valley Still Generally Humid...near The Coast...with Precip
H20 Levels Around 2" Or More...though An Area Of Drier Air (precip
H20 Values Around 1.6-1.7" According To Last Night`s Soundings) Was
Noted Over Inland Al/ga And The Atlantic Coast Of Fl.

&&

.short Term...an Upper High Pressure Ridge Extending East From The
Southern Plains Across The Southeast Conus Will Persist Over The Next
24 Hours. Weak Impulses Will Again Move Southwest Across The Forecast
Along The Eastern Periphery Of The Ridge. The Low And Mid Clouds Have
Dissipated And The Cirrus Remnants From Yesterday`s Convection
Continues To Thin. Strong Insulation This Morning Should Allow
Convective Temperatures To Be Reach Around Noon. Shower And
Thunderstorm Coverage Will Then Increase During The Afternoon Hours.
Both The Nam And Gfs Agree In The Timing Of The Strongest Mid/upper
Level Disturbance Late In The Afternoon...so The Strongest Storms
Should Occur On The Drive Home. Weak Steering Winds Will Allow Storms
To Move Southwest At Only 5 To 10 Mph...so Localized Minor Flooding
Of Streets And Small Streams Area Likely. High Temperatures Inland
Yesterday Were Above Mav Guidance As Expected...and Will Go With
Persistence. Leaned Toward The Warmer Nam Solution Which Has High
Temperatures About 2 To 5 Degrees Higher Than The Gfs Across The
Inland Areas. Scattered Activity Will Remain Early In The Evening
Until The Disturbance Moves Out Of The Area...with Clearing Skies And
Isolated Fog After Midnight. /22

.long Term(thursday Through Wednesday)...by Sunrise
Thursday...models Are Advertising Upper Low Currently Over Fl Has
Moved To Over The Western Gulf Of Mx. Upper Ridge Over The Southern
Plains/lower Miss River Valley Has Weakened Due To The Onslaught Of
Upper Energy Moving Across The Northern Half Of The Conus. Models
Advertising This Shortwave Continuing To Move West To Over Tx Before
Taking A Northward Path Around The Subtropical Ridge...which Has
Begun To Strengthen Friday Night Into Saturday. The Ridge Over The
Southern Plains Gets Wiped Out Through Sunday...as A Combination Of
Shortwave Energy Digging Trough Over The West Coast And Shortwave
Over Tx Washes It Out. Subtropical Ridge Rebuilds Over The North-
Central Gulf/lower Miss River Valley By The End Of The
Weekend...building Into Mid Week.

At The Surface...upper Dynamics Move The Great Lakes High
Southeastward To Off The East Coast By Thursday Morn...with Surface
Front Getting An Insignificant Push South The Ridge Over The
Southeastern Conus Gets Shoved South...though...to Over The Gulf Of
Mx...with A More Southwesterly Flow By Sunrise Thursday. Ridge Over
The Gulf Remains Pretty Much Stationary Into The Weekend...when
Another Shortwave System Pushes Building High Pressure Over The
Great Lakes Southeast...and The Surface Front/trough To Over The
Northeastern Gulf Sunday Night Into Monday. By Mid Week...surface High
Has Pushed Over The Southeastern Conus...with Front Over The Southern
Gulf.

For The Forecast...started The Long Term With A Lean Towards The
Warmer Of The Mav/met Mos`...then Pretty Much Stuck With The Mav/mex
Numbers Friday On. For Pops...with A Quite A Bit Of Range With The
Pops Thurs Into Friday (depending Upon The Southward Push Of The
Surface Front And The Op Gfs Being On The Dry Side Of The Average)...have
Gone With A Blended Approach.

&&

.marine...west-east Oriented High Pressure Ridge Across Northern
Gulf Will Result In A Nearly Non-existent Synoptic Flow Again Today.
The Ridge Will Eventually Sag South Across The Central Gulf The
Latter Half Of The Week...with A Light To Occasional Moderate West
To Southwest Flow Developing Across The Coastal Waters. Seas 1 To 2
Feet Will Rebuild To 2 To 3 Feet Once The Sustained Synoptic Flow
Resumes. /22

&&

.fire Weather...with Hot Temps And Rh Values Dropping Well Below
Seasonal...red Flag Warning Is In Effect For Wilcox...butler And
Crenshaw Counties. As Ridge Weakens...temps Will Not Be Quite As
High...though Still Expecting Afternoon Dewpoints To Fall Below
Seasonal...am Not Expecting Rh Values To Fall Quite As Low As They
Have The Last Several Days. Lack Of Rain Is A Problem...with A Large
Deficit (more Than The Coast) To Make Up. Light Transport Winds Are
Helping To Keep Dispersions From Getting Out Of Hand...even With A
Deep Mixing Layer.

ROLLTIDE

08-13-2006, 07:48 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
455 Am Cdt Sun Aug 13 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...a Weak/modified Remnant Frontal
Boundary That Back-doored Into The Northeastern Zones Today Will
Continue To Focus Convection For The First 2 Forecast Periods. We
Went Highest With The Pops Over The Interior East Today Closer To
This Boundary. Along And Offshore...scattered Storms Developing
During The Pre-dawn Hours Just Offshore Are Moving Northeast And
Will Skirt The Beaches Through The Mid Morning Hours. We Expect A
Little Better Coverage Of Storms Today Given Sufficient Deep Layered
Moisture Area-wide (pw Values Ranging From 1.9 To 2.2 Inches)...and
A Little More Lift And Instability (especially In The Northeast/east
Near The Boundary). We Keep A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Going For All Zones Through The Evening Hours With Coverages Going
More Isolated During The Late Night Hours. The Slow Storm Motions
Today In A High Precipitable Water Airmass Will Likely Result In
Locally Heavy Rains From These Storms. We Will Have To Watch Out
For Localized Urban/small Stream Flood Type Events. The Greater
Depth Of Moisture Through The Midlevels Should Diminish The Wet
Microburst Potential Today...however A Few Storms Could Still
Produce Gusty Winds 35 To 40 Mph...below Severe Limits. Temps Were
Advertised Close To Mav Both Periods. /05

(monday And Tuesday)...the Sfc Trough Becomes Quasi-stationary
Across The Area On Monday And Remain Through Tuesday. Meanwhile And
H5 Ridge Will Slowly Retrograde Westward As An Upper Trough Deepens
Across The Northeastern States. Several Shortwaves Rotating Through
The Base Of The Trough Will Generate Subtle Sfc Waves Along The
Leftover Boundary In The Area. The Best Lifting From These Features
Occurs On Monday And Have Kept The Likely Pops Going From The Prev
Shift For The Afternoon. This In Reinforced By The Met Pop Coming
Way Up (70 Percent)...that May Be A Little Overdone And Will Lean
Closer To Mav Guidance For Pops This Period. On Tuesday...another
Upper S/wv Moves Across The Northern States Sending Yet Another
Weakening Frontal Zone Southward Into The Southeastern States. This
Approaching Boundary Along W/ Several Shortwaves Rotating Into The
Area In The Upper Level Northwesterly Flow Will Keep The High Range
Sct Pops In The Forecast. Northwesterly Upper Flow Patterns Are
Notoriously Difficult To Forecast In And Timing The Individual Waves
In This Flow Is Nearly Impossible. Several Different Features
Combining Across The Area And Would Imagine That Some Strong Storms
Are Possible Nearly Each Afternoon. A Very Moist Airmass Will Lead
To Very Heavy Rain And Wet Microbursts Will Be The Main Severe
Threat Near The Heavier Precip Cores. /13

.long Term...(wednesday Through Sunday)...a Tutt Low Is Expected To
Move Westward Across The North Central Gulf Wednesday Into Thursday.
The 13.00z Gfs Has This Feature Farther North Than Last Night`s Run.
The Wrf Is Slower W/ This Feature As Develops A Full Blown Sfc
Low...however Considering Its Performance So Far This Season...will
Continue Along The Line Of The Gfs. The Tutt Low Combined W/
Abundant Deep Layer Moisture And A Lingering Sfc Trough Support The
Continuation Of Chance Pops Through The First Part Of Next Weekend.
By The End Of The Period...both The Ecmwf And Gfs Indicate An Upper
Ridge Building Across The Gulf Coast. If This Comes To Pass...the
Warmer Temps Aloft Under This Ridge Will Help Decrease Afternoon
Thunderstorm Coverage While Allowing Temps To Warm. /13

&&

.marine...the Higher Resolution Nam Gridded Data Is Handling The
Near Shore Winds A Little Better This Morning And We Used It For The
First 2 Periods. Surface High Pressure Over The Central Gulf Of
Mexico Will Help Maintain A Southwest To West Wind Over The Coastal
Waters Through Monday. Winds Becoming Mostly Southeast By Wednesday
As A Trough Of Low Pressure Moves West Across The Gulf. Showers And
Thunderstorms Will Also Become A Little More Numerous By Midweek As
The Trough Of Low Pressure Passes Just South Of The Region. /05

ROLLTIDE

08-16-2006, 04:46 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
420 Am Cdt Wed Aug 16 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...very Limited Data Available For
The Forecast This Morning. The Remnants Of Last Nights Mesoscale
Convective System Have Moved Offshore With Isolated Light Showers
Lingering Over The Alabama Coastal Waters And Adjacent Land Areas.
Rain Cooled Conditions Will Delay Convective Development But With A
Weak Front Draped Across The Gulf Coastal States...will Stay With
Scattered Pops For This Afternoon. Surface Ridging Strengthens Over
The Extreme Southeast States Aided By The Surface Low Off The North
Carolina Coast Which Back Doors The Weak Front To The Near The
Alabama/northwest Florida Coast. Will Keep Low End Chance Pops In
For Coastal Sections Overnight With Isolated Elsewhere.
Temperatures Will Be Slightly Above Seasonable Levels. /29

(thursday And Friday)...upper Ridge Over The Arklatex
Builds Eastward Across The Tennessee Valley On Thursday As Upper
Level Low Moves Westward Across The North Central Gulf. A Weak Front
Remains Draped Across The Area And W/ Plentiful Bl Moisture In Place
Sct Pops Remain In The Forecast. Temperature Remain Above
Climatological Norms. /13

.long Term...(saturday Through Wednesday)...due To A Lightning
Strike At The Office Last Evening...data Availability Has Been Sparse
And Only Minor Changes Were Made To The Extended. Typical Mid-august
Weather Continues Through Next Week W/ Scattered Showers And
Thunderstorms Developing Offshore In The Early Morning And
Transitioning Inland During The Late Morning And Afternoon. An
Approaching Frontal Boundary Early Next Week May Serve To Enhance
Thunderstorm Chances Monday Through Wednesday. Temperature Remain
Above Climatology W/ Rain Chances Near Climatology Through The
Period.

Note To Kmob Radar Users...due To A Lighting Strike Near The Office
Last Evening The Radar Remains Down. The Extent Of The Damage Is Unknown
At This Time And Technicians Will Continue Work Later This Morning. /13

&&

.marine...the Weak Inverted Trof Continues Into The Western Gulf
Today With The Offshore Flow From The Overnight Mcs Returning To A
Southeasterly Flow This Afternoon. The Weak Boundary Across The
Gulf Coastal States Briefly Moves Near The Coast Late Tonight
Resulting In An Easterly Flow. A Southeast Flow Resumes On Thursday
And Continues Through Sunday As Ridging Builds Across The Northern
Gulf. /29

&&

ROLLTIDE

08-21-2006, 03:03 PM

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL225 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006ALZ052-053-061-212015-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-225 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER WASHINGTON...CLARKEAND MOBILE COUNTIES...AT 223 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ATHUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MALCOLM...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT15 MPH.THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...MALCOLM...FAIRFORD...CALVERT AND FORT STODDARD THROUGH 315 PM CDT.THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUDTO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULDDOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALLOBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HASPASSED.THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOWLYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVEREDROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.$$

ROLLTIDE

08-24-2006, 03:58 AM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
315 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2006

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-gmz630-650-655-670-675-241100-
Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms From 20 To 60 Nm-
Mobile Bay-baldwin Coastal-escambia Coastal-mobile Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-santa Rosa Coastal-
315 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2006

.now...
Through 5 Am...scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Will Continue
To Form Over The Coastal Waters Of Alabama And Northwest Florida
Extending Offshore To Beyond 60 Nm. The Main Threat With Some Of The
Stronger Thunderstorms Will Be Wind Gusts To Around 30 Mph...frequent
Cloud To Ground Or Cloud To Water Lightning And Very Heavy Rainfall.
Isolated Waterspouts Will Also Be Possible.

The Strongest Thunderstorms Will Be Affecting The Coastal Areas Of
Northwest Florida From Pensacola Beach To Destin Extending Out To 20
Through 5 Am.

ROLLTIDE

08-28-2006, 03:53 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 280833AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL333 AM CDT MON AUG 28 2006.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO SHOULD ARRIVE ON CUBAS SOUTHEASTCOAST JUST WEST OF THE NAVY BASE SHORTLY. A RATHER FLAT PRESSUREPATTERN ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR THATDRIFTED IN FROM THE EAST YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE MOVING BACK TO THEWEST TODAY AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS. /11&&.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERTHE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BREAKING DOWN AS A LONGWAVEUPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. WE DO NOTE APERSISTENCE IN THE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLEWATERS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 2.1 INCH MARK. THIS SUPPORTS A CHANCEOF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAUSES THEAIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING ANY WEAK MESOSCALEBOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOMEMID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL OFBRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY STORMS TODAY. A MODIFICATION OFINTERMEDIATE RUNS USING KTLH SOUNDINGS @ 06Z FOR OUR COUNTY WARNINGAREA SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE MODERATE/HIGH THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS.THIS TRANSLATES TO THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS INTHE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TOTEMPERATURES. /10.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM/HOTAND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS. WILLHAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY AS THISAREA MAY HAVE SOME HELP FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZE. AN H5 TROUGH WILLALSO BE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE FORECST AREA BYTUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THEWEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO INHIBIT DRIER AIR FROM BEING PULLED SOUTH ANDACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CAUGHT UP IN THETROUGH WILL ALSO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF THECOAST...POSSIBLY JUST OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDEDWITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. /11&&.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROMTHE MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK FRONT/SURFACETROUGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. MEANWHILEERNESTO...NEAR GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS CUBA THEN RECURVING UPINTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS THE STORMGAINS LATITUDE...COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN OFFSHOREFLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF ERNESTONOT IN THE GULF ALL THAT MUCH...WE FEEL THE THREAT OF SWELL COMINGUP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IS GREATLY LESSENED AND WILL BE EVEN MORESO IF MORE EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK ARE MADE. CONSIDERINGTHIS...HAVE LOWERED SEA HEIGHTS MID AND LATE WEEK. /10&&

ROLLTIDE

09-01-2006, 04:59 AM

fxus64 kmob 010917
afdmob

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
410 am CDT Friday Sep 1 2006

Short term...north-south oriented axis of upper level trough
bisecting the forecast area will slowly move east over the next 24
hours. Subsidence and very dry air will dominate the middle and upper
levels...with a thin residual moisture layer below the main
subsidence zone (centered between 850 to 800 mb). Scattered cumulus
clouds will redevelop this afternoon...with bases around the 5000
feet. The drier air and plenty of Morning Sun will allow temperatures to
rise to around 90 degrees across the entire forecast area today.
Adequate mixing in the low levels will allow the northerly winds
this morning to turn to a northwesterly component this
afternoon...with west winds focused along the beaches. The
combination of a light northerly drainage flow redeveloping this
evening...and clearing skies...should send temperatures back into
the middle to upper 60s most inland areas. Warmer temperatures around
70 degrees will occur along the I-10 corridor...with middle 70s along
the coast...due to an expected slightly higher wind speed. /22

&&

Long term...(saturday through thursday). For Sat both the GFS
and NAM depict a weak surface boundary stretching west across interior
sections of South Alabama and south MS...generally from a broad surface low
centered over central Georgia. Along this boundary increased moisture
convergence is noted by Sat after initially over southeast MS spreading east
into Alabama later in the day. With this could see an isolated shower or
thunderstorm Sat after developing over southeast ME and spreading east and
south mainly into SW Alabama...then drifting southwest towards the coast
through early Sun morning. Current GFS solution shows better
coverage than the NAM resulting in isolated probability of precipitation over much of the
lower half of the County warning forecast area Sat after and Sat night. By sun this feature
dampens out resulting in drier conditions across the County warning forecast area through
early Monday. For late Monday through midweek broad surface low continues over
the southeast Continental U.S. With middle to upper low/trough digging over the central MS
River Valley. Middle to upper low Diggs further south into Tennessee and
northern sections of Alabama and Georgia mostly likely giving way to more
unsettled pattern to much of the County warning forecast area late Tuesday through Thursday. Near
the surface wind flow remains most west-southwest limiting moisture return from the
Gulf. With this believe probability of precipitation will be mainly scattered across the County warning forecast area late
in the period. As for temperatures will continue to use 00z mex guidance
through the extended period. /32

ROLLTIDE

09-03-2006, 07:34 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 030950
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
340 Am Cdt Sun Sep 3 2006

.short Term (today Through Tuesday)...a Few Mid Level Clouds This
Morning...due To A Weak Trough Across The Forecast Area...will
Increase To A Scattered Nature This Afternoon. But...drier Air In
The Low Levels And Lack Of Significant Lift Will Prevent Any Showers
Or Thunderstorms From Developing Over The Next 36 Hours. A Large
Upper Low Spinning Over The Northern Plains Will Move
Southeast...reaching The Ohio River Valley Region By Late Tuesday.
Meanwhile...an Associated Surface Cold Front Will Approach The
Forecast Area From The Northwest. Precipitation Chances Will
Increase Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday As The Base Of Upper
Trough Digs South Across The Northern Gulf...and The Cold Front
Moves Through The Forecast Area. Moisture Will Be Limited So Any
Convection Should Not Result In Heavy Rainfall. Very Warm Afternoon
Temperatures Will Persist Through The Remainder Of The Labor Day
Weekend...with Highs Around 90 Degrees. Cooler Temperatures Behind
The Front Should Send Tuesday Night Lows To Around 60 Degrees
Inland...with Upper 60s Along The Beaches. /22

.long Term (wednesday Through Saturday)...base Of Large Upper
Longwave Trough Over The Forecast Across Will Transition Into A
Zonal Flow Through The Extended Period. Dry Conditions Will
Prevail Wednesday Through Friday In The Post Frontal Environment.
Deeper Moisture Should Begin To Recover On Saturday...mainly Across
The Southwest Portion Of The Forecast Area. /22

&&

.marine...weak Surface Low Will Remain Over The Southeastern States
Through The Week. A Weak Surface Front Will Transit The Region
Midweek Before Stalling South Of The Al/nw Fl Panhandle Coast
Wednesday Night. Frontolysis Will Beset This Boundary Causing It To
Disappear Over The Rest Of The Week Into The Coming Weekend.
Overall...not As Flat A Pressure Pattern As Previously Thought. As
The Seabreeze Spools Up...may Get A Little Robust Near The Beach
During The Day. Little Change In Seas. /77

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-08-2006, 05:59 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
415 Am Cdt Fri Sep 8 2006

.short Term (today Through Tonight)...stalled Boundary About 20nm
South Of The Coast Will Provide The Best Focus For Any Precip
Generation Through The Next 24hrs. Shortwave Was Moving Over The
Southeastern Conus...climbing Northeast On The East Side Of The
Upper Trough Just East Of The Miss River Valley. This Is Helping To
Hold Back The Westward Advancing Stratus Over Eastern Sections Of
The Fa. With Better Moisture Over The Southeastern Section Of The Fa
And The General East To Northeast Low Level Flow...have Kept Higher
Cloud Cover And Pops Over The Southeastern Quarter Of The Fa.
Guidance Is Generally Close With The Temps...so Haven`t Deviated.
Nam Is A Bit Wetter With The Pops...mainly Due To A Better Gulf
Breeze Action This Afternoon Into The Early Evening. Don`t Have A
Good Feeling At This Point...so Have Stuck With The Mav Pops For
Now. /16

&&

.long Term (saturday Through Next Friday)...chance Pops Continue
Across The Southern-most Zones For Convection Initiating Near The
Stalled Frontal Boundary Over The Weekend With Slight Chances
Inland. We Expect Gradually Increasing Coverages Of Showers And
Thunderstorms Monday Into Tuesday As Moisture Increased Ahead Of An
Approacing Shortwave Moving Out Of The Southern Plains. The Gfs Is
The Most Amplified And The Strongest With The Upper Trough
Approaching In The Tue/wed Timeframe. The Ecmwf Is Somewhat Less
Amplified And The Canadian Gem Is The Weakest Overall With The Upper
Level Trough. As The Shortwave Drives East Into The Lower Ms River
Valley By Tue...we See Another Front Sliding Southeast Into Our
Area...stalling Over The Far Eastern Zones Or Just East Of Our Area
By Thursday. We Kept Chance Pops Going East Of I-65 Closer To The
Surface Focus And Deeper Layered Moisture Through Late Next Week
With Either Slight Chance Or No Pops To The West Of I-65 Behind The
Front In The Drier Air. /05

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-13-2006, 03:44 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 130836AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL336 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...FIRST ITEM TO DEAL WITH ISPRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS THE FRONT AS IS MOVESAWAY FROM THE FA. SECOND ITEM TO DEL WITH IS WHEN WILL THE RAIN COMEBACK INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE UPPER PATTER HAS A CLOSE LOWMOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME...WITH A WEAKTROUGH STRETCHING TO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER THE AZ/CA/MX BORDER.ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS IN EVIDENCE...MOVING WEST ALONGTHE SOUTH-SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OFMX/MX TO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISPRETTY MOIST...WITH LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY SATURATEDSOUNDINGS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES.&&.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWESTOF THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGIONTODAY AND THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVED ACROSS THE REGIONTUESDAY EVENING...SHIFTING THE WIND FLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTACROSS THE REGION. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTTODAY...EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTHE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS ENDEDACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENTOF PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITHDAYTIME HEATING AND ADDED SUPPORT OF WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGYPASSING OVERHEAD. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WESTTO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT ASTHE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. WILL HAVESOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERNPORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT FOR NOW DON`T LOOK FOR WIDESPREADFOG TONIGHT AS TT/TD SPREAD WILL BE GREATER WITH THE DRIER AIRMASSJUST MENTIONED. CLOUDY SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSSTHE AREA TONIGHT WITH FROPA. WENT WITH MAV MOS TEMPS...WHICH WEREAROUND CLIMO FOR TODAY THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT OVERINTERIOR NORTHWEST. /12.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BY THURSDAY MORN...THECLOSED LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE PA/NYSTATE LINE...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO OVER TX...AS ANOTHERCLOSED LOW DIVES SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OFUPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST HAS BUILT A RIDGESTRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESURFACE LOW DEVELOPED BY THE MODEL NEAR THE FA YESTERDAY INTO LASTNIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THEMID/UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE SURFACEFRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY THIS TIME...WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVINGOVER THE LAND AREAS OF THE FA. GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEDRIER AIR THAN THE NAM...ALSO A BIT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR THURS.MODELS ADVERTISING THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS LOW MEANDERING OVER THENORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE SWINGINGEAST...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN UPPER LOW STALLING THURSDAY THROUGHFRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE WESTERN LOW GIVES IT A NUDGE EAST. THISMEANDERING AROUND FOR 24HRS OR SO WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OFTHE SURFACE RIDGE..MAINTAINING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTOSATURDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTSEASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. FROM THERE...MODELSINDICATING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CONUSSYSTEM PUSHING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CA PLAINS AGAINSTUPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OP GFS ADVERTISING NEXT BEST CHANCEFOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MAKINGUPPER DYNAMICS SPEED UNCERTAIN...WILL HAVE TO PLAY IT BY EAR WITHRESPECT TO TIMING...WITH A DAY TO DAY PUSH BACK IN PRECIP TIMINGINDICATED IN THE MOS.&&.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPIEARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OFALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDSACROSS THE MARINE AREA WERE BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST INTHE WAKE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ARE CURRENTLYRETURNING TO MORE OF A WEST TO SOUTH DIRECTION AT 07Z...WHICH WILLPERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE AREA (IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE)THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHTAND INCREASE (10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY) WITH FROPA. LIGHT TOMODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD THENPREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET OR LESS...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUSSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ANDSEAS...WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE MARINE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THEFRONT TODAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OFTHE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. /12&&.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE ARE BEHINDFRONT SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS NOTINDICATING ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW RH...WITH MODEL PHYSICAL AND MOSDROPPING THE AFTERNOON RH TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY WEAK...SO AM NOT EXPECTINGANY PROBLEMS WITH DISPERSION WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.UPPER SHOVING MATCH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL MAKETIMING OF NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DIFFICULT...WITH MONDAYNIGHT/TUESDAY THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT LOW END CHANCEAT THIS TIME.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MOBILE 88 67 86 64 88 / 50 10 10 10 10PENSACOLA 86 69 87 67 87 / 60 20 10 10 10DESTIN 86 71 87 68 87 / 70 30 10 10 10EVERGREEN 85 64 84 58 86 / 60 10 10 10 10WAYNESBORO 84 62 85 55 88 / 30 10 10 10 10CAMDEN 84 63 85 58 88 / 50 10 10 10 10&&

ROLLTIDE

09-16-2006, 04:10 AM

000
Fxus64 Kmob 160818
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
320 Am Cdt Sat Sep 16 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows High Pres
Centered Over The Eastern Halves Of Tn And Ky Stretching Southward
To The Nwfl And Al Coast. Offshore A Stalled Frontal Boundary Was
Present Stretching From Just S Of Kaaf To Just N Of Kmsy. Latest Wv
Loops Show Dry Air Still Advecting Southward Across The Central Gulf
Coast Region Generally East Of The H5 Ridge Axis Which Stretches
From The Western Gulf To Western Tn. Through 12z Sun H5 Ridge Axis
Will Shift East Of The Cwfa Stretching From Central Ky To The
Eastern Gulf. With This A Weak Return Flow Will Develop By Late This
Afternoon Becoming Reestablished By Early Sun As Deepening Long Wave
Trof Moves East Of The Central Plains. With This Will See Another
Clear/rain Free Day Followed By A Few High Clouds Moving In From The
West Late Tonight. With Mostly Clear Skies Expected Through Most Of
Tonight Will Stay Close To The Warmer/cooler Mav Guidance Through
Tonight. /32

(sunday And Monday)...sfc Front Between Dauphin Island And Buoy
42040 Will Gradually Return Northward As A Warm Front Late Today Into
Sunday As Upper Trough Pushes A Cold Front Southeast Toward The
Area. This Will Bring 70 Degree Dewpoints And Pw Values Near 2
Inches Back Into The Region By Late On Sunday. Rain Chances Will
Start Over Out Western Areas And Offshore Zones Sunday Afternoon And
Sunday Night. Have Bumped Pops Into The Likely Group For Monday As
The Front Enters The Area And Moisture From What`s Left Of Hurricane
Lane...now Off The Mexican Coast...gets Drawn Into The Frontal Zone.
Depending On How Much Of This Moisture Is Drawn Into The This System
Along W/ Any Cyclogenesis Along The Boundary Will Determine Just How
Much Rain We Get. Some Isolated Heavier Rain Amounts Appear Possible
During The Monday And Tuesday Time Frame. Outside Of Heavy
Rain...other Severe Weather Threats Remain Low As The Main Dynamics
W/ This System Pass Well To The North Of Our Area. /13

.long Term...(tuesday Through Next Saturday)...on Tuesday The Cold
Front Will Continue To Push Southward Through The Area Ahead Of An
Upper Level Trough Moving Across The Eastern Us. Gfs Is Slower
Pushing The Front Through Than The Other Global Models Due To It
Developing A Sfc Low Along The Front In South Central Louisiana
Ahead Of A Shortwave Moving Through The Base Of The Trough. It Then
Tracks The Sfc Low South Of The Area. Ecmwf/ukmet Have A Weaker Low
That Is More To The North Of The Area While The Gem Has No Sfc Low
Low On The 16.00z Runs. If The Gfs Low Were To Pan Out...it Would
Setup A Significant Overrunning Event W/ Some Heavy Rainfall.
However...large Uncertainties Exist As The Gfs Seems To Be An
Outlier. Either Way...it Looks Like A Good Rain Event For The Area
As The Front Moves Into A Very Moist Airmass W/ Pws Above 2 Inches.
The Front Will Push East Of The Area On Wednesday As High Pressure
Builds Southward Into The Region Dropping Pw Values Below 1 Inch. The
High Will Quickly Moves East Of The Area As Next Upper Trough Takes
Shape Over The Western Conus. This Will Allow Return Flow To Setup
Late Thur Into Fri. A Strong Upper Ridge Is Forecast Over The
Southeast Late Next Week And This Would Likely Cause Most Of The
Dynamics Of This System To Pass Well Northwest Of The Area Again.
Cooler Temps Due To Clouds And Rain On Tuesday Will Gradually Warm
Through The Week...remaining Near Or Slightly Above Climatological
Values. The Dry Airmass Behind The Front Will Allow Ideal Conditions
For Radiational Cooling And Thus Some Low 60s/upper 50s Lows Wed And
Thur Morning. /13

ROLLTIDE

09-20-2006, 05:33 AM

fxus64 kmob 200826
afdmob

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
330 am CDT Wednesday Sep 20 2006

Short term...(today and tonight)...mostly clear skies and warm
temperatures today as high pressure remains across the area. Clear
tonight with cool temperatures as winds become more northeast as
surface high center moves to the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and ridge extends
southwest to local area. Guidance(gfsmos)looks reasonable and will
be used...no rain expected today or tonight. /11

(thursday and friday)...next system kicks into the plains on
Thursday while surface and upper ridging shift eastward into the western
Atlantic. Surface low will move into the upper Midwest by Friday morning
as another low develops along the tail end of the front in response
to a shortwave rotating through the upper trough. Both NAM and GFS
indicating significant moisture return to the area by late Thursday
night and especially on Friday. Mav/met pop numbers have risen
dramatically on the 20.00z run for Friday with mav numbers
indicating likely probability of precipitation. Have gone 10-20 percent lower than mav
numbers while awaiting some better consistency. /13

Long term...(saturday through next wednesday)...models continue to
waver on the timing of the next frontal boundary and thus not a very
confident pop forecast in the first part of the extended. As the
secondary surface low races to the northeast it will drag a cold front
into the area Sunday into Monday with chances of showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary. Once again...severe
widespread severe is not expected west/ this front as dynamics remain
far removed to the north. Behind this front another shot of much
drier and slightly cooler air moves in for the first and middle
parts of next week. /13

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-22-2006, 05:21 AM

National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
355 am CDT Friday Sep 22 2006

Synopsis...warm front is from coastal Alabama northwest to near
Hattiesburg and moving northward. Scattered showers south of front
moving fairly rapidly north. Deep surface cyclone over Kansas with
surface high off the East Coast...increasing gradient across area
with strongest winds over the coastal and offshore areas this
morning./11

&&

Short term...(today and tonight). 07z surface map shows warm front just
SW of Dauphin Island stretching southeast across the middle part of the
marine area. Latest radar loops continue to show scattered showers
developing in the vicinity of the front moving inland and becoming
elevated over coastal sections of Alabama then dissipating as they
track further inland. To the west of the County warning forecast area showers were moving
further inland due to the position of the front...stretching inland
over S Mississippi. Latest forecasts...GFS..NAM and RUC bring the warm
front inland early today giving way to light rain with embedded
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning mostly
convective later in the day and early tonight. Pressure gradients along
the coast are quite impressive giving way to surface winds about 2
categories above most of the model guidance. Believe as the warm
front moves further inland today the lower atmosphere will become
well mixed giving way to a little less gradient near the surface. This
reflects well with most of the model guidance. For tonight expect a
persistent flow from the south near the surface...SW at most levels
aloft giving way to deep layered moisture for most of the County warning forecast area by
12z Sat. As for temperatures will use the current mav MOS guidance through
tonight./32

Long term...(saturday through thursday) Kansas low moves off to the
north as the models develop another Lee side low over the Texas
Panhandle and takes it northeast. The upper low dumb Bells around as
it pulls deep layer moisture across area. Forecast precipitable
water values increase to two inches or more from this morning until
Sunday night when front arrives. Saturday looks to be garden variety
thunderstorms as no decent low level forcing mechanism or upper
support is in place...may be some gusty winds given the upper 80
temperatures expected. At this time Sunday may be the day with the
stronger storms as the front approaches and a squall line develops
to the west and arrives late Sunday afternoon or early evening. GFS
ends the rain a little earlier than NAM and forecast will end rain
late Sunday night. Remainder of forecast dry with slightly below
normal temperatures Monday and back to near normal Wednesday and
Thursday. /11

&&

Marine...a strong southerly flow over the marine area has prompted
sca's for all areas over the coastal waters this morning continuing
through about 18z today. As mentioned above winds should relax
somewhat later today as the warm front moves inland and the lower
atmosphere becomes better mixed. A moderate southerly wind flow will
persist through tonight and Saturday due to a strong trough and a
series of surface lows move from the Central Plains to the middle to upper
Mississippi River valley. With this have increased the sea grids
through much of the period. Latest model guidance both the NAM and
GFS push a cold front across the marine area Sunday night giving way
to a moderate to strong northerly wind flow in the wake of the front
through early Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms...mostly scattered...
can be expected ahead of the front through sun evening. /32

ROLLTIDE

09-24-2006, 08:17 AM

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
450 am CDT sun Sep 24 2006

Short term...line of showers and thunderstorms extending from
southwest Louisiana to northern Alabama ahead of a cold front...will
progress east throughout the day and evening hours...bringing much
needed rain the forecast area. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the main line this morning across the forecast area and
move northward before merging into the line. A few storms this
afternoon may become strong to severe with damaging winds...and hail
up to one inch being the main threats. /22

&&

Long term...(monday through saturday).Broad middle to upper trough over
much of the eastern Continental U.S. Will continue through Saturday. The trough
will continue to give way to a series of short waves troughs moving
eastward across the deep south through much of the week. With this
scattered to broken middle clouds with the possibility of light rain or
sprinkles will prevail...mostly from Wednesday through the remainder
of the week. Less clouds with cooler temperatures are expected in the wake
of the front late Monday through early Wednesday. Will continue to use 00z
mex guidance for temperatures through the period. /32

&&

Marine...a light to moderate southerly wind flow will persist today
as a cold front slowly moves in from the northwest. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms will occur across the marine area through
tonight...with gusty winds possible. The cold front will move across
the coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida this evening
bringing a moderate to strong offshore wind flow over the marine
area through late Monday. /22

ROLLTIDE

09-25-2006, 07:26 AM

Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
500 Am Cdt Mon Sep 25 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...07z Sfc Map Shows Cold Front
Moving Across The Cwfa Stretching From Just N Of Kdhn To Kpns To
Near The Mouth Of The Ms River. Aloft Upper Trof Axis Is Still Well
To The West Of The Fa Stretching From Western Tn To The Se Tx Coast.
Latest Wv Loops Overlayed With The Current Gfs And Ukmet Model
Guidance Show Significant Short Wave Rounding The Base Of The Long
Wave Trof Giving Way To Significant Mid Level Forcing Along And East
Of The Sfc Cold Front...aiding In The Development Of Scattered
Showers And Thunderstorms This Morning. Latest Model Guidance Both
The Gfs And Nam Depict Sfc Front Will Continue To Move East This
Morning With Deeper H8 To H3 Moisture Axis Tracking East Of The
Region By Early This Afternoon. With This Skies Should Clear From
West To East Today Beginning Later This Morning And Continuing
Through The Mid To Late Afternoon Hours. As A Result Drier/cooler
Conditions Can Be Expected This Afternoon And Tonight. Will Use The
Current Mav Mos Guidance For Temps. /32

(tuesday And Wednesday)...broad Upper Trough Will Reside Over The
Forecast Area Through Mid Week...with Strong Mid And Upper Level
Subsidence Bringing Clear Skies. With The Drier Air...low
Temperatures Will Drop Below Climatological Norms About 10 Degrees
Tuesday Night In The Wake Of A Reinforcing H85 Front. Highs Will
Remain Near Normal Values Both Tuesday And Wednesday Afternoon. /22

.long Term...(thursday Through Sunday)...broad Upper Trough Will Be
Strengthened By Late In The Week As Additional Shortwave Energy
Moves Through The Upper Midwest. Currently The Gfs Model Pegs The
Arrival Of An Associated Cold Front Thursday Afternoon. Available
Moisture Will Be Limited...so Will Only Keep Slight Chance In The
Forecast Thursday And/or Thursday Night As The Front Moves Through.
Post Frontal Environment Through The Remainder Of The Extended Will
Be Dry. /22

&&

.marine...a Moderate To Strong Northerly Wind Flow Will Follow In
The Wake Of The Front Building To 15 To 20 Knots Early Tonight
Continuing Through The Morning Hours On Tues. Seas Will Build To 4
To 6 Feet Well Offshore Late Tonight...continuing Through The
Morning Hours On Tues. A Moderate Northerly Flow Will Redevelop Tues
Night As High Pres Builds Over The Lower Ms River Valley. As High
Press Builds Near The La/ms Coast Wed Aft A Light Onshore Will
Develop Mostly Near The Coast Late Wed Aft. Winds Will Become Mostly
West Wed Night And Thu Becoming North And Building To Around 15
Knots Thu Night As Another Reinforcing Cold Front Moves Across The
North Central Gulf. A Light Southerly Flow Will Develop By Sat
Afternoon As High Press Shifts East. /32

&&

.fire Weather...latest Forecast Soundings Are Consistent In Showing
A Wide Separation In The Temperature/dewpoint Profiles Tuesday.
Thus...a Mixing Out Or Lowering Of The Forecast Dewpoints Are In
Order. Gridded Data Indicates The Need For A Fire Weather Watch For
The Western Florida Panhandle Tuesday As We Could See Several Hours
Of Critically Low Daytime Relative Humidities Then.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 83 60 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 86 62 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
Destin 85 65 83 61 / 20 0 0 0
Evergreen 81 56 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 80 53 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 80 56 81 49 / 0 0 0 0

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-26-2006, 06:13 AM

(wednesday And Thursday)...broad Upper Trough Will Be Strengthened
On Thursday As Additional Shortwave Energy Moves Through The Upper
Midwest. Both The Gfs And The Nam Wrf Models Agree With The Timing
Of An Associated Strong Cold Front Arriving Late Thursday Afternoon.
Available Moisture Will Be Limited...so Again Only Kept A Slight
Chance Of Showers In The Forecast For Thursday Afternoon...mainly
West Of Interstate-65. The Added Benefit Of Surface Heating Will Be
Quickly Lost In The Early Evening Hours...so Shifted This Activity
Offshore For The Overnight Time Frame As The Front Pushed Offshore.
As For Temperatures...prefer The Warmer Mav Guidance Thursday
Afternoon Ahead Of The Front. This Is About 5 Degrees Higher Than
The Met Guidance For Mobile...and I Do Not See Any Justifiable To
Depart From The Persistent Warmer Readings In The Mid 80s. /22

.long Term...(friday Through Monday)...by And Large The Upper Trough
Will Remain Over The Eastern Half Of The Conus Through The Remainder
Of The Extended Period. Additional Embedded Shortwave Energy Is
Progged By The Gfs To Arrive Further South In The Base Of The Trough
Over The Upcoming Weekend. While The Local Impacts Are Unclear At
This Time...a Brief Return Flow May Be Sufficient To Allow For
Scattered Precipitation To Occur. /22

&&

.marine...a Light Northerly Wind Flow Will Persist Through Early Wed
Becoming South Then Southwest Late Wed Afternoon And Wed Evening.
Winds Will Remain Mostly West Through Thu Then Shift North And Build
Thu Night As Another Cold Front Moves Across The Region. Winds And
Seas Will Decrease Fri Afternoon As High Pres Over The Lower Ms
River Valley Shifts East. A Light Southerly Wind Flow Will Develop
On Sat As High Pres Continues To Shift East. /32

&&

.fire Weather...despite The Drier Northerly Flow...residual Moisture
Below 850 Mb Will Remain Through This Afternoon...with Sfc-h85 Layer
Specific Humidity Values Above 6.5 G/kg Forecast By Several Models.
The Much Drier Air Is Above 800 Mb In A Westerly Wind Flow...but The
Maximum Height Of The Mixing Layer This Afternoon Is Forecast To
Remain Below This Much Drier Air Mass...so Deep Mixing Of Drier Air
To The Surface Is Unlikely. Although Surface Based Relative Humidity
Values Are Expected To Reach As Low As 35 Percent Sometime Early
This Afternoon...the Required Four Hour Duration Of Rh Values Below
35 Percent Necessary For A Red Flag Warning Across The Western
Florida Panhandle Will Not Occur Today. Therefore...the Red Flag
Warning Has Been Cancelled.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-27-2006, 06:19 AM

000
Fxus64 Kmob 270951
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
450 Am Cdt Wed Sep 27 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...the Surface Ridge Of High Pressure
Extending From Houston To Atlanta Will Move Slowly East Across The
Central Gulf Coast Region Through Tonight. A Dry Airmass Under The
Ridge Will Keep Any Rain Chances At Bay Through Tonight. As The
Surface Ridge Works Across Today...mechanical Mixing Due To
Advective Processes Will Be Less Today. With Plenty Of Sunshine In
A Dry Airmass Regime...temperatures Will Rise Into The Middle 80s
For Most Locations Today. Temps Today Are Close To The Warmer Mav
Readings Except Along The Coast Where The Light Southwest Winds In
The Afternoon Will Shave A Couple Of Degrees Off. For Tonight We
Went Closer To The Met Near Shore And The Cooler Mav Inland. /05

&&

.long Term (thursday Through Tuesday)...a Vigorous Short Wave Trough
Will Move Across The Tn River Valley On Thu Giving Way To Mostly
Cloudy Skies With A Few Isolated Showers Or Thunderstorms Mainly
During The Daylight And Early Evening Hours Here Along The Coast.
Aloft...a Mid To Upper Trof Digs Over The Eastern Conus Through
Early Fri Allowing Another Surge Of Cooler/drier Air To Push South
Of The Forecast Area...possibly Advecting As Far South As The
Southern Gulf Waters. In The Wake Of The Trough...another Weak Wedge
Of High Pres Settles Over The Mid Atlantic Region Stretching Sw To
The North Central And Northeast Gulf...holding Through Early Sunday.
By Late Sun Into Mon The Next Clipper Moves From Central Canada To
The Upper Ms River Valley With Little Impact Over The Se Conus And
Central Gulf Region. A Weak Sfc Ridge Persists Over The Central Gulf
States Through Mon Becoming Reinforced From The N Tues Through Wed
As The Clipper To The N Moves Off The New England/mid Atlantic
Coast. Otherwise A Relatively Dry Pattern Continues Across The
Region Through Tue With Maybe An Isolated Shower Or Thunderstorm
With Each Passing Shortwave. As For Temps...fall Like Conditions
Will Continue With Highs Only In The 70s For Much Of The Forecast
Area On Fri. Highs Will Creep Back To The Mid 80s Over The Weekend.
We Will Continue To Use The Current 00z Mex Guidance For Now. /32

&&

.marine...main Concern In The Near Term Dealt With The Forecast Wind
Speeds Thursday Into Friday. As The Ridge Moves Across...we Should
See A Light Southwest To West Flow Become Established Late
Today...then A Fast Moving Cold Front Surges South Across The Marine
Area Early Thursday Evening With A Solid 20 Kt Northerly Flow
Expected By The Early Morning Hours Friday. We Will Likely Have To
Hoist A Small Craft Advisory Thursday Night Into Friday Morning For
20 To 25 Kt Winds Behind The Front. /05

&&

.fire Weather...afternoon Relative Humidities Will Fall To Near Or
Just Below 35 Percent This Afternoon Though Generally For Less Than
4 Consecutive Hours. With This Will Hold Off For Now On Any Watches
Of Warnings. Afternoon Relative Humidities Will Have To Be Closely
Monitored Over The Weekend As Next Cold Front Moves East Of The
Region. /32

ROLLTIDE

09-29-2006, 06:49 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 291013 Aaa
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion...update
National Weather Service Mobile Al
510 Am Cdt Fri Sep 29 2006

.fire Weather Update...upon Further Review Of The Data...we Feel We
Need To Post A Red Flag Warning Across Mobile And Baldwin Counties.
The Winds This Morning Along And Just North Of The Coast Will
Average 10 To 20 Mph As The Rh Drops Below 35 Percent In The Late
Morning Hours. The Winds Will Diminish In The Afternoon As The
Gradient Relaxes...but It May Still Be A Little Gusty From 10 To 15
Mph In The Early Afternoon. With The Winds Forecast To Be Over 10
Mph When The Rh Falls Below 35 Percent...we Meet All Elements Of The
Criteria For Mobile And Baldwin Counties. Further Inland Over The
Interior Counties...the Gradient Should Drop Off More Quickly As The
Rh Bottoms Out. /05

ROLLTIDE

10-05-2006, 05:56 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
255 Am Cdt Thu Oct 5 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...upper Air Analysis Shows An Upper
Ridge From Texas Eastward Into The Southeast United States. The
Eastern Nose Of This Ridge Is Eroding As Energy Aloft Is Starting To
Slide Southeast Through The Ohio River Valley. This Is In The
Vicinity Of A Surface Cold Front Which Is Forecast To Be Moving
Southward Through The Forecast Area Tonight. Considering Any Weak
Frontal Forcing Of A Narrow Band Of Deep Layer Moisture
(precipitable Waters 1.5 To 1.7 Inches) Suggests A Mention Of A
Slight Chance Of Wet Weather Mainly Tonight. Appears The Front Will
Have Little In The Way Of Instability Along It To Generate Much In
The Way Of Convection. Thus...will Keep Weather Type As Showers In
The Gridded/graphical Forecasts. Daytime Max Temperatures Are
Forecast To Be Several Degrees Above Normal...but We Are Not
Forecasting Them To Be Close To Records. Nighttime Mins Also Look
To Be Above Normal As Well. /10

ROLLTIDE

10-06-2006, 07:20 AM

Area Forecast Discussionnational Weather Service Mobile Al450 Am Cdt Fri Oct 6 2006.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows Weak Coldfront Moving Quickly Southward Over The Cwfa This Morning Progged Tomove South Of The Marine Area By 18z Today. With This Will Continueto Lean Towards The Latest Mav Guidance Mentioning A Few Cloudsearly Today Then Becoming Mostly Sunny For Most Places During Theafternoon. Otherwise...current Mav Mos Temps Look Good. /32&&.long Term (saturday Through Thursday)...a Cut Off Upper Low Movessouthward Along The East Coast Through Sunday Then Ejects Out Acrossthe Western Atlantic Monday Into Tuesday. Dry And Relatively Coolconditions Continue Across The Region Meanwhile Through Monday. Theupper Ridge Pattern Over The Central States Breaks Down Monday Intotuesday As A Longwave System Move Across Canada And Northern Tierstates. This Allows For A Series Of Progressively Stronger Southernstream Shortwaves To Move Across The Southeast States With Deeplayer Moisture Slowly Increasing. A Second Canadian Longwave Systemcarves A High Amplitude Trof Over The Conus Wednesday Into Thursday.with The Increasingly Favorable Pattern For Convection...will Addsmall Pops For The Southern Portion Of The Forecast Area On Tuesdaywith Chance Pops Across The Area Wednesday And Thursday...inagreement With Neighboring Offices. Temperatures Will Be Slightlyabove Seasonable Levels Tuesday Through Thursday. Later On...astrong Cold Front Looks Set To Sweep Through The Region On Fridaywhich Will Usher In Rather Cool Temperatures. /29&&.marine...weak Cold Front Will Continue To Move South Of The Marinearea Later Today And Tonight Giving Way To A Light Northerly Flowtoday...increasing To 15 To 20 Knots Early Tonight. Winds And Seaswill Begin To Subside Early On Saturday...with A Light To Moderatenortheast Flow Continuing Through Early Monday. Seas Will Build To 3to 5 Feet Mostly Tonight And Early Saturday...subsiding To 2 To 4feet Through Early Monday. /32&&.fire Weather...no Concerns. Afternoon Relative Humidities May Dropto Near Critical Levels Saturday Afternoon Over The Northwestflorida Panhandle But Will Not Satisfy Duration Criteria. Otherwiseafternoon Relative Humidities Remain Above Critical Levels Throughthe First Part Of Next Week.

ROLLTIDE

10-08-2006, 08:28 PM

Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday...cold front forecast(at
this time) to cross area Thursday...most likely in the afternoon.
This will make thursdays high rather tricky...will not change
current forecast high of mostly 70s...even if front is delayed until
late afternoon...the clouds and expected rain will keep temperatures
down. Did notice that the new 12z gfsmos did warm it up quite a bit
for Thursday both maximum and min but left the probability of precipitation about the same...no
change made to previous Thursday forecast. Hpc's latest 5 day
precipitation forecast has area less than an inch which looks
reasonable given the lack of a good moisture feed and is also down
from previous HPC 5-day. Coolest temperatures of the season follow
for the weekend. Extended Colorado-op MOS has a few upper 30s in the
normally colder northern spots by Saturday morning. /11

ROLLTIDE

10-09-2006, 04:25 PM

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. West wind around 10 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 73. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation

ROLLTIDE

10-10-2006, 06:24 AM

000
Fxus64 Kmob 101028
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
520 Am Cdt Tue Oct 10 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows Weak High
Pres Over The Southeast Conus And North Central Gulf Giving Way To
Another Day Of Slightly Cooler Drier Weather Over The Cwfa. This
Pattern Will Begin Break Down Later Today And Tonight As A Better
Onshore Flow Develops As High Pres Shifts East...gradually Giving
Way To Increased Low Level Moisture To The Region. Aloft Mid To
Upper Trof Over North Central Conus Begins To Deepen Later Today
Giving Way To A Weak S/w Trof Moving Across The Lower Ms River
Tonight And Early Wed. Latest Model Guidance Preferably The Gfs
Depicts Increased Lift Out Ahead This System Suggesting A Few
Scattered Showers Or Thunderstorms Moving Into Extreme Western
Sections Of The Cwfa Late This Aft And Early Tonight. This
Convection Mostly During The Daylight Hours Will Weaken Or Dissipate
As It Tracks East Into Sw Al Overnight. With Better Low Level
Moisture Moving Across Region Late Tonight Will Continue To Mention
Patchy Fog Beginning Late Tonight For Most Areas. Will Continue To
Use Or Stay Close To Current Mav Mos For Temps Through Tonight.
/32

.long Term (wednesday Through Next Monday)...models Have Not Been
All That Consistent With Regard To Timing Of Fropa Expected During
The Middle Part Of This Week...nor With The Temperature Fcst For The
End Of The Week And The Upcoming Weekend. The Cold Front That
Extends From The Upper Midwest Down Across The Southern Plains
States This Morning Will Approach The Fcst Area Tonight...then Move
Across The Area Wednesday Through Wednesday Evening. Shortwave
Energy Aloft Will Result In Some Isolated Pcpn In Advance Of The
Front Late Tonight...then Expect Chance Pops On Wednesday As Sfc
Front Slowly Drops South Across The Area. The Front Looks Like It
Will Stall Just Of The Coast To The South Of The Area By Early
Thursday...then A Deepening Upper Trof Will Send A Reinforcing Front
Southward Across The Region Thursday Night. High Pressure Will Build
Over The Fcst Area In The Wake Of The Front...resulting In A Dry
Northerly Flow Through Early Sunday. Gfs Continues To Advertise A
Warm Front To Be Moving North Over The Southern Plains/lower Miss
River Valley Sunday Night And Monday...bringing A Southerly Wind
Flow With Increasing Gulf Moisture. This Combines With A Strong
Upper Level Disturbance That Is Progged To Move East Across Parts Of
The Southeastern States On Monday...resulting In Another Chance Of
Rain At The End Of The Fcst Period. As Far As Temps...stayed With
Mavmos For Now...but As We Said...temp Guidance Has Been Fluctuating
Wildly. Metmos Numbers For Thursday Max Temps Are A Good 15 Degrees
Cooler Than Mavmos Over Inland Zones And 10 Degrees Cooler For
Coastal Zones...so We Will Likely Be Making Some Adjustments There
In Later Fcst Packages. Same Thing For Friday. /12

&&

.marine...a Light Northerly Wind Flow Will Become South Then
Southwest Later Today And Tonight Increasing From The Southwest
During The Day On Wed As S/w Trof Moves Across The Se Conus. A Light
Northerly Wind Flow Will Develop Wed Night In The Wake Of This
System Shifting Back To The South And Southwest And Increasing On
Thur As Main Upper Trof And Trailing Cold Front Approach From The
Northwest. The Strong Cold Front Is Expected To Move Across The
Marine Area Thu Night Giving Way To A Strong Offshore Early Fri
Through Late Sat Morning. Seas Will Gradually Build On Wed As First
System Moves Across The Region Wed Then Build Significantly Thu
Night And Fri As Main Cold Front Moves Across The Central And
Eastern Gulf. Seas Will Likely Build To 7 Feet Or Slightly Higher By
Early Fri Morning Giving Way To Small Craft Conditions Thu Night And
Fri. /32

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-10-2006, 04:42 PM

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 71. North wind around 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

ROLLTIDE

10-11-2006, 04:51 AM

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 69. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

BooBoo

10-11-2006, 08:48 AM

So based on the El Nino this year looks like the forcasters blew it big time. What do you think of next year?. where are you in Mobile as I want to link up with your weather station. I live on Hillcrest.

ROLLTIDE

10-11-2006, 03:04 PM

http://hardcoreweather.com/radar/kmob_br248.png

ROLLTIDE

10-13-2006, 07:36 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
345 Am Cdt Fri Oct 13 2006

.synopsis...for The Current Forecast...the Short Term Is Pretty
Straight Forward...with Surface Front Pushed To The Northern Gulf
Coast As I Type. The Extended Is Another Story...with Timing Issues
To Deal With. First Things First...in The Upper Levels Of The
Troposphere...deep Upper Low That Has Been Providing The Focus For
Weather Over The Northeastern Half Of The Conus Has Meandered To Just
North Of Lake Superior...with Another Close Low Off The Southern
California Coast. Subtropical Ridge Over The Southern Gulf Of
Mx/caribbean Is Showing The Effects Of The Southern Ca Upper
Low...being Quite Flat At This Time. Surface Front...as Stated
Above...has Pushed To The Gulf Coast...with Very Dry Air Not Too Far
North Of The I-20 Corridor(looking At The Goes Precip H20 Plot). Last
Evenings Soundings Along The I-20 Corridor Show That Most Of The
Moisture Is Generally In The 7k` To 13k` Layer...though Looking At The
Latest Surface Obs From Stations To The North Show That This Has
Dropped A Few Thousand Feet. Even So...cloud Base Reports From
Stations To The West Show Cloud Bases Around 3k`...with Weak Upglide
In These Levels.

&&

.short Term (today Through Tonight)...morning Sfc Analysis Shows Main
Cold Front Continues To Push Southward Toward The Coast.
Meanwhile...the Drier And Cooler Airmass Lags Behind The Front
Closer To The 850 Mb Boundary Across Central Al And Ms. Some
Sprinkles And Light Showers Are Currently Ongoing Along And Ahead Of
This 850 Mb Front...while A Southern Stream Shortwave Is Generating
Showers And Thunderstorms Ahead Of The Sfc Front Over The Texas And
Louisiana Coastal Waters. As Large Upper Vortex North Of The Great
Lakes Shifts Eastward...numerous Shortwaves Rotating Around It Will
Shove The Front Southward Through The Day. The Upper Level Front Is
Expected To Pass By Later This Morning. Until The Upper Trough
Passes...weak Forcing Will Continue To Allow Some Isolated Showers
To Develop And Will Include The Mention Of Isolated Showers In The
Forecast Through Noon Today. Clouds Will Also Clear This Afternoon
But Continued Cold Air Advection Will Hold Temps Down Into The Low
To Mid 70s. Clear Skies And A Dry Airmass...along With The Longer
Nighttime Period...will Allow For Ideal Radiational Cooling And The
Coolest Temps Of The Fall So Far Tonight. Overnight Lows Are Expected
To Fall Into The Upper 50s Near The Coast To Low 40s Across The
Interior Areas. Cannot Completely Rule Out A Few Upper 30s In The
Normally Cooler Locations Where Winds Go Calm. /13

.long Term (saturday Through Friday)...models Starting To Show Some
Divergence Saturday Sunrise...mainly With The Southwestern Conus Low.
Nma Has A Deep Shortwave Moving North Along The Western Mx
Coast...helping To Hold Back And Detach The California Coast Low From
The Flow. Result Of These Two Systems Dancing Around Each Other Is
The California Low Meandering Southeastward To Over Nw-rn Mex By
F84/monday Morn...allowing The Subtropical Ridge To Build And Low
Level High Build Over The Eastern Conus. With The Sw Dynamics Created
Low Over West Tx/rio Grande Valley...the Nam Has A Strong Low Level
Flow Mainly Located Over Tx/w-rn La.

The Gfs...on The Other Hand...develops A Low Off The West Coast Of
Latin America...but Does It 24hrs Later...allowing The Sw-rn Us/nw-rn
Mex Low To Move Eastward Faster...though With Some Advertising
Splitting Of The Energy...is Relatively Slow Through Sunday Night.
From Monday Morn On...this Shortwave Moves Quickly Eastward Over The
Southern Plains To Over The Lower Miss River Valley By Sunset Monday.
Looking At The Ensembles...this Is The Most Progressive
Solution...with The Ensemble Mean Of The 500mb Heights Advertising
An Upper Trough Stretching From Off Baja California To The Western-
Most Central Plains. Ecmwf/ukmet/canadian Also Showing This
Spread...though Are Generally Between The Nam And Gfs Solutions.

For The Forecast Through Sunday Night...have Taken The Gfs Solution
As A Start...but Slowed It Down By 12 Hrs...as Feel This Will Get The
Timing Better For The Onset Of The Precip.

For Monday On...as This Shortwave Passes...it Leaves A Trailing
Front...which Stalls Along The Northern Gulf Coast Late Tuesday...
Providing A Focus For Precip Through Mid Week...with A Front Expected
To Cross The Fa In The Later Thursday Night Through Friday Time
Frame.

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-15-2006, 03:19 PM

New.kmob.su.y.0004.061015t2100z-061017t1200z/
Lower Mobile-lower Baldwin-coastal Escambia-coastal Santa Rosa-
Coastal Okaloosa-
239 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 15 2006

...high Surf Advisory In Effect Until 7 Am Cdt Tuesday...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A High Surf
Advisory...which Is In Effect Until 7 Am Cdt Tuesday Along The Gulf
Beaches Of The Following Locations...

In Southwest Alabama...baldwin And Mobile Counties.

In Northwest Florida...escambia...santa Rosa And Okaloosa Counties.

A Long Duration Of Strong South To Southeasterly Winds Ahead Of An
Approaching Area Of Low Pressure Will Result In High Surf Along Area
Beaches Through Tuesday Morning. The High Surf Will Likely Result In
Some Minor Beach Erosion...as Well As Wash Over Of Jetties And
Exposed Low Lying Areas Along The Immediate Coastline.

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In
The Advisory Area...producing Rip Currents And Localized Beach
Erosion.

ROLLTIDE

10-17-2006, 11:37 PM

dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am Cdt Wednesday.

.with The Elevated Ground Moisture Levels From Tuesday's
Rainfall Along With Light Winds Tonight.the Threat For Dense Fog Is
Increasing For The Overnight Hrs To Shortly After Sunrise Wed Morning.

Alz051>064-flz001>006-msz067-075-076-078-079-181400-
/o.new.kmob.fg.y.0012.061018t0433z-061018t1400z/
Choctaw-wa-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-lwr Mobile-
Lwr Baldwin-inland Escambia-coastal Escambia-inland Santa Rosa-
Coastal Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-coastal Okaloosa-wayne-perry-
Greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of.butler.lisman.silas.chatom.
Millry.jackson.thomasville.grove Hill.camden.
Pine Hill.homewood.monroeville.evergreen.greenville.
Luverne.brantley.atmore.brewton.east Brewton.
Andalusia.opp.prichard.saraland.bay Minette.
Tillmans Corner.theodore.daphne.fairhope.foley.
Spanish Fort.century.flomaton.molino.pensacola.
Ferry Pass.brent.west Pensacola.bellview.ensley.
Myrtle Grove.jay.pace.milton.gulf Breeze.crestview.
Wright.fort Walton Beach.niceville.destin.seminole.
Eglin Afb.valparaiso.waynesboro.richton.beaumont.
New Augusta.leakesville.mclain.wiggins.lucedale
1133 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 17 2006

.dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 9 Am Cdt Wednesday.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued A Dense Fog
Advisory.which Is In Effect Until 9 Am Cdt Wednesday.

A Dense Fog Advisory Means Visibilities Will Frequently Be Reduced
To Less Than One Quarter Mile. If Driving.slow Down. Use Your
Headlights.& Leave Plenty Of Distance Ahead Of You.

ROLLTIDE

10-19-2006, 05:00 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
415 Am Cdt Thu Oct 19 2006

.short Term...(today Through Tonight)...system Moving From Over Nm
To Tx At This Time Will Organize A Surface Front Over Tx
Today...then Take It Northeast As Upper Dynamics Get Shunted
Northeastward By Upper Ridge Over The Gulf Of Mx. Gfs Is A Bit
Faster Than The Nam With The Precip Passage...though Pretty Even
With The Wind Shift Of The Front (crossing The Fa Around
00z...exiting Se Of Marine Areas Around Sunrise Friday). Have Help
On To The Precip Longer Than The Gfs Is Advertising...especially
With This Event Crossing Period Boundaries. Used The Mav Pops As A
Start. For Temps...mav And Met Are In Reasonable Agreement...so Used
The Mav As A Start...tweaking From There.

Feeling Is There Will Be Enough Instability And Shear For Some To
Become Severe...mainly This Afternoon And Evening(mainly
Southeastern Half Of Fa). Model Wind Profiles Have A Bit More
Directional Shear In The Lower Levels Than Yesterday`s Linear
Profile. Still Looks Like (with Statistics On My Side...anyways)
Mainly A Wind Event. With Spc Going A Slight Risk Over The Fa...have
Put In Severe Wording For The Forecast. /16

&&

.long Term...(friday Through Wednesday). Sfc High Pressure Will
Build Over The Lower Ms River Early Friday Then Shift Northeast To
The Tn River Valley And Mid Atlantic Region By Sat As Next S/w Trof
/sfc Front Moves From The Central Plains Into The Mid Mississippi
River Valley. With Broad Mid To Upper Trof Over Much Of The Eastern
And Central Conus And Little Digging Depicted By Both The Gfs And
Nam Believe Next Round Of Precip Will Be Somewhat Progressive Moving
Across The Much Of The Cwfa Sun And Sun Night. Due To Limited
Moisture Return In The Lower Levels And Limited Instability Most
Precip Should Remain Closer Coast And Offshore With The Best Chance
Of Thunderstorms Over The Adjacent Gulf Waters. By Early Mon Sfc
Cold Front Moves Across The Region Giving Way To Slightly Drier
Conditions With Much Cooler Temps. Somewhat Better Ridging Is Noted
In The Model Guidance By Early Mon Into Tues Followed By Another
Round Of Widespread Rain From Layer Lift With Embedded Showers And
Thunderstorms Closer To The Coast Late Wed Through Fri As Another
S/w Moves East Of Tx. The Heavier Precip Again Looks To Be Closer To
Coast With Most Thunderstorms Confined To The Coast And Offshore.
Will Continue To Use Current 00z Mex Mos For Temps. /32

&&

.marine...series Of Upper System Diving Southeast Over The Western
And Central Conus Will Push A Front Across Alabama And Nw Fl
Panhandle Coastal Waters Every Few Days The Next Week Or So. The
First System Is Currently Moving Over The Southern Plains Will Push
A Front Across Marine Sections Of The Fa Tonight...with Wind Shift
Line Moving Southeast Of The Fa Around Sunrise Friday. Guidance Is
Wishy-washy Of Whether Winds Will Get Into Sca Levels...with Upper
Dynamics And Surface Front Pulling Away Northeast From Tx Tonight.
Went Sca Just As A Precaution...with Frequent Gust Above Sca The
Reason.

Next System Looks To Push A Front Across The Sunday
Afternoon/evening. Guidance Is Suggesting That The Dynamics Will Be
Weaker...and Not Dig As Far South As Today`s...with Marine Mos
Indicating Winds Getting Into The Low End Ex Caution Levels. /16

ROLLTIDE

10-21-2006, 06:19 AM

Long Term...(tue Through Next Sat)...tuesday Looks Dry As The High
Slides East And The Next Trough Moves Into The Western States.
However...very Progressive Upper Flow Pattern Brings At Least Sct
Showers Or Thunderstorms To The Forecast Through Much Of The
Remainder Of Next Week. On Wed...return Flow Sets Up As A Warm
Front Moves North Across The Area. Overrunning Showers And Isolated
Thunderstorms Area Possible During This Period. Scattered Showers
And Thunderstorms Are Possible Thu And Fri As The Warm Sector
Becomes Increasingly Unstable. Rain Chances Increase Again By The
Weekend As The Upper Trough Slides East And Sends A Cold Front
Toward The Area. Highs In The Lower 80s Are Expected For The Latter
Part Of Next Week. Some Stronger Storms May Be Possible W/ This
Front Due To The Duration Of The Warm Sector Across The Region. /13

ROLLTIDE

10-22-2006, 07:05 AM

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 37. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

ROLLTIDE

10-23-2006, 12:19 PM

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL725 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2006ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-232300-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GREENE-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA INLAND-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-725 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2006...PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE INLAND AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING UNDER CLEARSKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATIONOF PATCHY FROST OVER THE INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILEOVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROPTO THE FREEZING MARK...FROST CAN STILL FORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURESRANGING FROM 34 TO 37 DEGREES.RESIDENTS AND GROWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS...TOCHUNCHULA...TO BAY MINETTE...TO MILTON AND CRESTVIEW SHOULD COVERSENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF THE POTENTIALFOR PATCHY FROST.

ROLLTIDE

10-25-2006, 06:03 AM

National Weather Service Mobile Al
440 Am Cdt Wed Oct 25 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...the Latest Surface Map Shows
High Pressure Approaching The Tennessee River Valley With A Broad
Expanse Of Clouds Streaming In From The Southern Plains Which Is
Partially Associated With Deep Layer Moisture Streaming Eastward
From The Pacific Tropical System Paul. A Sharply Amplified Shortwave
Trof Advances Across The Western States To The Central Rockies While
The Surface Low To The Lee Of The Rockies Deepens. Meanwhile...the
Abundant Deep Layer Moisture Continues Eastward With A Steadily
Descending Overrunning Flow Bringing Clouds Streaming Into The
Forecast Area Today. The Elevated Isentropic Lift Is Sufficient To
Generate Alto Level Rain Across Northern Louisiana Which Is Reaching
The Ground Per The Monroe Louisiana Surface Observation. Will Need
To Add Small Pops To The Inland And Western Portion Of The Forecast
Area Today As The Overrunning Precip Strays Into The Area. Higher
Pops Follow For Tonight...mainly Over The Western And Inland
Portions. Highs Will Be A Few Degrees Cooler Than Yesterday...below
Seasonable Levels...with Near Normal Temperatures Tonight. /29

(thursday And Thursday Night)...deep Layer Moisture Returns To The
Region During The Day On Thursday. Pw Values Climb To Near 1.8
Inches Late In The Day As Strong Warm And Moist Advection Take Place
In Advance Of An Area Of Developing Low Pressure Over The Southern
Plains. Scattered Rain Showers Are Expected To Develop Thursday
Afternoon As Isentropic Lifting And Lower Condensation Pressure
Deficits Develop Ahead Of A Slow Moving Warm That Will Work Onshore
Late Thursday Into Friday Morning. Expect Most Of This To Be
Stratiform On Thursday W/ Isolated Thunder Due To Weak Elevated
Instability. Sfc Based Instability Will Be Non-existent And Confined
South Of The Warm Front Over The Coastal Waters. Introduced
Thunderstorms Everywhere After Midnight Thursday Night As A Squall
Line Will Approach From The West And Instability Values Gradually
Increase. Spc Has A Slight Risk Of Severe Weather For Thursday Night
Across The Southeast Mississippi Zones. /13

.long Term...(friday Through Tuesday)...the Greater Severe
Thunderstorm Threat Is Expected From 09z To 18z Friday As An Upper
Trough Moves Eastward And Pushes A Cold Front Toward The Area. A 120
Kt Jet Max Ejects Northeast Out Of The Base Of The Upper Trough And
Across The Tn Valley Friday Morning. This Places The Entire Forecast
Area In The Right Rear Quad Of The Upper Jet...ideal For Strong
Upper Divergence And Resultant Uvv Reflected In Omega Values That
Jump Through The Roof Between 12-18z Friday. This Feature Will Serve
To Enhance The Squall Line Especially The Further East It Pushes.
Also The Warm Front Will Move Inland Across Portions Of Southwest
Alabama And Northwest Florida W/ Maritime Tropical Airmass Spreading
Inland. The Low Level Jet Axis Sets Up Across The Fl Panhandle Into
Ga And It Is This Area From The Western Fl Panhandle Into South
Central Alabama That Best Combination Of Shear And Instability Is
Forecast To Exist. Forecast Shear Profiles During This Time Frame
Support The Potential Of Rotating Updrafts And Isolated Tornadoes.
Tornado Potential Will Be Enhanced W/ Thunderstorms Developing Ahead
Of The Squall Line And Damaging Winds Possible Along The Squall Line
Friday Morning Into Early Afternoon. As Usual Along The Gulf Coast
In Fall...kinematics Are Ideal For Severe Thunderstorms(critical 0-1
Km Srh In Excess Of 200 M^2/s^2)...however Thermodynamics Are
Lacking Due To Weak Lapse Rates. Currently The Greatest Threat Of
Isolated Tornadoes Appears To Be Across Areas East Of I-65 Friday
Morning. The Storm Prediction Center Has Outlooked The Area For A
Slight Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms Across For The Entire Area On
Friday (see Swody3). Stay Tuned For Later Developments On This
Weather Situation.

Severe Threat Will End From West To East As The Cold Front Moves Through
And Should Be East Of The Area By Friday Evening. Skies Will Be Slow
To Clear Friday Night And Early Saturday Until Upper Trough Passage.
Not Much Of A Cool Down Behind This Front As Upper Flow Quickly
Becomes Zonal. The Remainder Of The Forecast Period Features Dry And
Mild Conditions W/ Temperatures Near Climatology For This Time Of
Year. /13

ROLLTIDE

10-27-2006, 06:09 AM

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL435 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-271130-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-435 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006.NOW...MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTMISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE RAINWILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THEREMAINDER OF THE REGION. A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE COASTWHERE THE AIR WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPHALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARYTHREAT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SOME HEAVYRAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...WITH AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHESACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TOTALS OF IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES MAYOCCUR WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.THIS WILL CREATE SOME MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...MOTORISTS SHOULD EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THIS MORNING AND BE ONTHE LOOKOUT FOR WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.$$

ROLLTIDE

10-28-2006, 05:17 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 280901AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL400 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS STRONG HIGHPRES BUILDING OVER TX PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ASIT SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WITH THIS THE MAINCONCERN THROUGH EARLY SUN WILL BE TEMPS AND ALONG WINDS ESPECIALLYALONG THE COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY THE GFS SUGGESTSSFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SLOWER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED LEADING TO ABETTER PRES DIFFERENCE OR GRADIENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THISAFTERNOON. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE LITTLE COOLER THANEARLIER PREDICTED GENERALLY FROM A WELL MIXED LAYER. WILL CONTINUETO USE THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32&&.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVESACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAYALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ASTRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES AND INTOONTARIO WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOOCCLUDE OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM REMAINSGENERALLY OVER ONTARIO WHILE A TRAILING FRONT SETTLES INTO THEREGION AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS NOT ALL THATIMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO A BIT ABOVE 1.25INCHES. WITH THE RELATIVE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT...WENT WITHSMALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN WITH LOW END CHANCE POPSON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND VESTIGES OF THE FRONTWILL SUPPORT SMALL POPS ON THURSDAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY ANDSATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLELEVELS EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN RETURN TO NEARSEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /29&&.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINEAREA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AS RIDGE TO THEWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE A CATEGORYBY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER BAYS AND OTHER COASTAL WATERS DUE TOBETTER HEATING INLAND. OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY LATETHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST.WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREATHROUGH 18Z AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF ITS NEEDED MAINLY FORTHE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO HIGH SEAS. /32&&.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET THEDRIER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVEHUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. HOWEVER ON SUNDAY WITHWARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STILL LOW...AFTERNOON RELATIVEHUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR JUST OVER FOUR HOURSOVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHERWATCH FOR THAT AREA FOR SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVECRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. /29&&

ROLLTIDE

10-29-2006, 08:30 AM

000
Fxus64 Kmob 291007
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
407 Am Cdt Sun Oct 29 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...latest Sfc Map Shows High Pressure
Centered Over East Tx Stretching Ene To Central And Southern Parts
Of Alabama. This Sfc Ridge Will Move East To The Ga/sc Coast Through
Tonight As Weak Upper Ridge Over The Central Plains Moves East. As
The Ridge Moves East A Light East To Southwest Flow Will Develop...
Giving Way To Better Low Level Moisture...mostly Over The Southern
Half Of The Cwfa By Early Monday. Otherwise...no Significant Weather
Changes Are Expected. Day And Night Temps Will Be A Little Warmer
With This Pattern. Will Continue To Use The Current Mav Mos Guidance
For Temps. /32

&&

.long Term (monday Through Saturday)...the Surface High Shifts Into
The Western Atlantic Monday Into Tuesday Allowing For A Light Return
Flow Over The Area. A Deep System Over Ontario Sends A Weak
Trailing Front Into The Region On Wednesday. Moisture Return Ahead
Of The Front Results In Precipitable Water Values Of 1.3 To 1.4
Inches As The Front Slowly Moves Through The Area Wednesday Into
Wednesday Night. Went With Chance Pops Over The Northern Portion Of
The Forecast Area On Wednesday With Slight Chance Pops Across The
Area Wednesday Night. The Front Moves South Of The Area On By Early
Thursday But A Series Of Several Southern Stream Shortwaves Will
Generate Generally Isolated Elevated Convection Through Friday. Dry
Deep Layer Ridging Finally Builds Sufficiently Into The Area To Keep
The Remainder Of The Forecast Period Dry. Mild Daytime Temperatures
On Monday Through Wednesday Will Cool To Several Degrees Below
Normal On Saturday As Light North Winds Usher Cooler Temperatures
Into The Region. /29

&&

.marine...high Pressure Centered Over East Texas Will Move East To
The Georgia Coast Through Tuesday. As A Result A Light Northeast
Wind Flow Will Becoming Most East To Southeast Through Midweek. As
The Ridge Of High Pressure Continues To Move East A Weak To Moderate
Cold Front Will Move South Across The Marine Area Late Wednesday
Night Through Early Thursday. Northerly Winds And Seas Will Build In
The Wake Of The Front. /32

&&

.fire Weather...extended The Red Flag Warning For Today For An Hour
Later In The Afternoon As Dry Air And Seasonable Temperatures Result
In Afternoon Relative Humidities Dropping To The Upper Twenties Over
The Northwest Florida Panhandle. A Light Return Flow Begins On
Monday Which Will Return Sufficient Moisture To Keep Afternoon
Relative Humidities Above Critical Levels. /29

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-31-2006, 06:58 AM

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected Time/date Line
National Weather Service Mobile Al
300 Am Cst Tue Oct 31 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...06z Sfc Map Showed High Pressure
Center Has Shifted On Off To The East...now Over Coastal Area Of The
Carolinas. A Cold Front Extended From The Great Lakes Area
Southwestward To A Low Pressure Area Along The Texas/oklahoma
Border. This Analysis Agrees Very Well With The Latest Gfs 06z
Positions...and This Solution Indicates That The Frontal Boundary
Will Continue To Work East Toward The Fcst Area Through Tonight.
Appears That The Front Will Slow Down Tonight As Sfc Wedge Will Be
Slow To Give Up Its Position...but At Any Rate Expect A Gradual
Increase In Clouds Over The Area Today And Tonight As The Front
Approaches. Any Pcpn Chances Will Be Confined To Northern
Zones...mainly Tonight...and Then Only A Slight Chance At Best In
Those Locations. With Return Flow Continuing To Becoming Better
Established As The Front Slowly Approaches...temps Will Continue To
Moderate Through Tonight...with Max Temps Several Degrees Above
Normal And Min Temps A Good 8 To 10 Degrees Above Normal For This
Time Of The Year. All In All...should Be A Rather Pleasant Evening
Tonight For All The Little Ghosts And Goblins Out There.
12/shepherd

&&

.long Term (wednesday Through Next Monday)...a Weak Short Trough
Moves Across Lower Sections Of Al And Ms Through 00z Fri. With
Limited Mid Forcing Combined With Limited Moisture In The Lower To
Mid Layers Of The Atmosphere Widespread Precipitation Is Not Likely
With This Weak Upper System. The Best Chance For Measurable Rain
Will Begin Over Over Western And Northern Sections Of The Cwfa Early
Wednesday Gradually Shifting South And East Through Thursday
Afternoon. This Pattern Is Depicted Well With The Current Gfs. Have
Opted To Go With Mainly Showers With This Round Of Precip Mainly Due
To Limited Instability And Afternoon Heating. By Thursday Night
Into Early Friday The Cold Front Moves Off The Coast Giving Way To A
Persistent N To Ne Flow Near The Sfc Through Early Sun Morning. Main
Concern With This Will Be Gusty Winds Mainly Closer To The Coast
Especially During The Early Morning Hours. For Sun Through Mon Weak
Overrunning Or Isentropic Lift Is Noted Over Northern Sections Of
The Cwfa Late Sun Afternoon Becoming More Widespread Of Better
Developed On Mon As Next Developing Short Wave And Sfc Cold Front
Approach From The West. Showers And Possibly Thunderstorms Will
Become Better Developed On Tue As This Next System Moves Across The
Lower Ms River Valley. As For Temps Will Continue To Use The Current
00z Mex Guidance Through The Pd. /32

&&

ROLLTIDE

11-02-2006, 03:33 PM

National Weather Service Mobile Al
310 Pm Cst Thu Nov 2 2006

.short Term...(tonight Through Saturday)...surface High Pressure
Will Continue To Move Eastward Across The Tennessee Valley Through
Saturday. The Resulting North To Northeast Wind Flow Will Continue
To Reinforce The Dry And Very Stable Airmass Across The Region.
Thus Mainly A Temp Forecast W/little In The Way Of Clouds And No
Precip Expected Through The Short Term Period. Expect The Next Two
Nights To Be Rather Chilly W/ Lows Near 40 Along The Coast And Low
To Mid 30s Across The Interior. Winds Will Stay Up Tonight As We
Remain In The Gradient On The South Side Of The High...thus The
Atmosphere Will Remain Mixed And Prevent Temps From Completely
Bottoming Out. Although Wind Chill Values In The Upper 20s And Low
30s Can Be Expected Making The Feel Like Temp Rather Cold. The Winds
Will Also Keep Any Widespread Frost Or Freeze From Occurring W/
Only The Normally Cold And Sheltered Locations Near Freezing In The
Morning. Friday Night The Ridge Will Be A Little Closer Especially
Across The Northern Zones Allowing Winds To Be A Little Lighter In
That Region. This Is When Temps Could Approach The Freezing Mark In
More Locations Especially Along And North Of Gzh. Another Borderline
Situation That Will Have To Be Monitored. /13

.long Term...(sunday Through Thursday)...upper Flow Becomes Zonal On
Sunday And The Sfc High Moves Off The East Coast. As A Result Winds
Become More Easterly Allowing Moisture Values To Slowly Increase For
The First Part Of Next Week. By The Middle Part Of Week The Gfs
Continues To Have Difficulty W/ The Upper Low Expected To Develop
Across The Southern Plains. Gfs Now Cuts The System Off And Drifts
It Southwest...never Really Affecting The Area And Brings A More
Significant Trough Into The Plains By Late In The Period. Meanwhile
Ecmwf Remains The Most Consistent Of The Global Models In The
Extended Digging An Upper Trough Into The Far Wrn High Plains
Sun-mon...eventually Closing Off An Upper Low Over The Tx/ok Border
And Spreading Eastward Through The End Of The Period. This Is
Solution Hpc Is Following And Due To The Uncertainty Will Not Make
Any Significant Changes To The Ongoing Extended Period. /13

&&

ROLLTIDE

11-03-2006, 05:35 AM

000
Fxus64 Kmob 030946
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
345 Am Cst Fri Nov 3 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...axis Of Large And Strong Dome Of
High Pressure Over The Mid Mississippi River Valley This Morning Is
Forecast To Slide Eastward Into The Virginias By Saturday Morning.
The Ridge Makes Its Presence Felt By Bringing Cooler And Much Drier
Air To The Forecast Area. Looks To Be A Breezy Day Today As
Well...with The Ridge Axis Well North Of The Area.

As Far As 2nd Period Frost Formation...forecasters Feel There Will
Be Just Enough Wind And A Wider Separation In The Surface
Temperature/ Dewpoint => Lower Rh To Mitigate Its Formation Along
The Coast Tonight. However...over The Interior Areas...a Lighter
Wind And Lower Temperatures There Could Bring About Its Formation In
Spots. At This Time...believe That Any Frost Formation Over The
Interior Tonight Will Be Patchy In Nature Due To A Light Wind...but
Wind Protected Locations Will Likely See Some Frost. Will Cover This
Frost Potential With A Special Weather Statement Due To Expected
Patchy Nature. /10

&&

.long Term (saturday Through Next Thursday)...general Trend Brining
Of Bringing Rain Chances Back Into The Fcst During The Middle To
Late Part Of Next Week Continues...so Didn`t Make Any Significant
Changes To The Extended Package. Did Adjust Pops Slightly To Conform
To Latest Guidance...but These Were Minimal Adjustments From
Previous. Sfc Ridge Slips Off The East Coast By Next Tuesday While
An Upper Trof Moves From The Western Part Of The Country Into And
Across The Southeastern States On Tuesday. This Feature Will Be The
Trigger For The Chance Of Pcpn On Tuesday. Rain Chances Will Become
More Isolated Across Most Of The Region On Wednesday As This Upper
Trof Moves East Of The Area...but Will Increase Again On Next
Thursday As A Sharper Upper Trof Moves Across The Area And A
Developing Sfc Front Over The Southern Plains Begins To Move Our
Way. Temperatures Will Return To Above Climatological Norms By Next
Tuesday And Remain Above Normal Through The End Of The Fcst Period.
12/shepherd

&&

.marine...recreational And Commercial Boating Operations Look To Be
Difficult Into The Weekend. Strong High Pressure Ridge To The North
Of The Area Maintains A Moderate To Strong Northeast To East Flow
And High Sea States Over The Next Several Days. Advisories Will Be
Headlined Through Early Saturday Morning...but Are Likely To Be
Extended On Later Shifts. /10

&&

.fire Weather...a Strong Area Of High Pressure And A Very Dry
Airmass Will Continue Across The Area Through Saturday. High
Temperatures In The Mid To Upper 60s Today...combined With Dewpoints
In The Upper 20s...will Result In Minimum Relative Humidity Values
In The 20 To 25 Percent Range Across Most Of The Area This
Afternoon...and In The 25 To 30 Percent Range On Saturday Afternoon.
With This...will Certainly Met Red Flag Criteria For The Florida
Panhandle This Afternoon And Likely On Saturday Afternoon. Will
Maintain The Red Flag Warning For Today...and Carry Over The Fire
Weather Watch For Saturday. This Watch Will Likely Be Upgraded To A
Warning With This Afternoons Forecast Package. Moisture Will Begin
To Increase On Sunday Bringing Relative Humidity Values Back Above
Critical Values. 12/shepherd

ROLLTIDE

11-04-2006, 07:20 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 040924
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
324 Am Cst Sat Nov 4 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...04/06z Surface Analysis Shows Center
Of High Pressure Near The Nations Capital With Ridging Down To The
Southwest Into East Texas. This Time Tomorrow Will See The High
Center A Bit Further To The East...over The Delmarva...with Ridging
Into The Southeast States. Little In The Way Of Clouds Expected Next
24 Hours...but May Be Some Lower Clouds Just Along And South Of The
Beaches Late Tonight And Some Patchy High Cloudiness Spreading West
To East This Afternoon And Tonight. Another Cool Afternoon With High
Temperatures Below 70 Degrees Across The Area...tonights Mins Will
Be Warmer But Still Cool As We Continue A Light East To Northeast
Wind Over The Land Areas. The Freeze Warning For The Northern Tier
Of Alabama Counties Continues With 2 Am Temperatures In The Mid And
Upper 30s Across The Warning Area. /11

.long Term (sunday Through Friday)...heading Into The Medium Range...there
Are Two Camps Of Solutions This Morning From The Global Forecast
Members On How The Upper Level Height Field Evolves. The Ecmwf And
Canadian Gem Models Show An Eastward Progression To An Upper Trough
Across The Southern States Early And Mid Week While The Gfs Wants To
Cut Off A Fairly Deep Upper Low Over The Texas Coast. The Gfs Is The
Outlier Of The Forecast Members This Morning. Due To The Differences
We See...will Consider A Compromise Approach. Latest Package
Considers An Upper Trough/shear Zone Hanging Back Over The Area Next
Week. This Would Suggest A Cloudy And Unsettled Weather Pattern At
Times. Will Be Consistent With The Latest Mexmos Pop Numbers. With
High Pressure Ridge Moving East Off The Mid Atlantic Coast Next
Week...temperatures Modify. /10

ROLLTIDE

11-05-2006, 08:18 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
324 Am Cst Sun Nov 5 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...surface Ridge Extending Southwest
Across Forecast Area From The Mid Atlantic States Will Be Gradually
Pulling Out Of The Area. Dew Points Ranging From The Mid And Low 30s
In The Northeast To Mid And Low 40s Along The Alabama Coast At 2 Am
Will Be On The Increase Today As The Ridge Pulls Out And Easterly
Winds Continue To Moisten Up The Lower Atmosphere. Precipitable
Water Values Less Than An Inch Increase To Over An Inch And A Half
By Midnight Tonight. Have Started The Scattered Showers This Evening
Over The Coastal Areas And Spread Them North Over Time...keeping
Showers To The North And Thunder To The South. Should Start Out
Light And Spotty With The Better Chances Of Thunderstorms Coming On
Monday With The Better Upper Support. /11

.long Term (monday Through Saturday)...an Unsettled Weather Pattern
Is Forecast Heading Into The First Of The Week. High Level Height
Field Sharpens As Energy Ejects Eastward Out Of Texas On Monday. With
Surface And Low Level Ridge Positioned East Of The Area...gulf
Moisture Recovers Nicely With Precipitable Waters Of 1.5 To 1.8
Inches Being Pulled Northward Monday And Monday Night. Lower Heights
Aloft Allows A Weak Low Pressure System And A Coastal Boundary To
Slide East Northeast Out Of Southern Louisiana And Across The Gulf
Coast Monday Night. Deep Layer Omega Fields (lift) Increases And
Shower And Thunderstorm Coverages Will Be More In Line With The Mav
Mos Messages Which Indicate Categorical Coverages. We Have A General
1 To 2 Inch Rainfall Event Forecast With This Early Week System...but
Any Stronger Localized Thunderstorms Will Likely Deposit Higher
Amounts. Latest Outlooks By The Storm Prediction Center Indicates General
Thunderstorms In Lieu Of Severe. For More Details On This...see
Outlooks And Discussions By The Storm Prediction Center.

We Have Noted Quite A Change With Regard To How The Gfs Has Handled
The Evolving Upper Level Southern Branch Height Field Through The
Week...than 24 Hours Ago. The Gfs Has Now Come More In Line With
Other Global Model Members In Showing A More Progressive Nature With
The Upper Trough Moving Through. Have Had To Make Adjustments On This
Package To Better Reflect These Trends. These Adjustments Include
Trimming Back Rainfall Coverages And Sky Condition After Tuesday As
The Surface Low/front Clears The Area. With The Trof Lifting Off To
The East...upper Ridge Amplifies And Slides Eastward Over The Area
Through The Middle Of The Week. This Feature Looks To Suppress Rain
Chances Then. The Next Chance Of Rain Could Return To The Forecast
Into Next Weekend As The Next System Approaches From The West. Due To
The Latest Model Trends...medium Range Mos Messages For Nighttime
Mins By The Middle Of The Upcoming Week Are Now Coming In ~10 Degrees
Lower Than Last Nights Runs. /10

&&

ROLLTIDE

11-06-2006, 05:04 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
345 Am Cst Mon Nov 6 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)latest Water Vapor Imagery And
Upper Air Data Shows A 120 Knot Upper Level Jet Streak Digging
Southeast Into The Northwest U.s. This Feature Will Help To Sharpen
A Longwave Upper Trof Southeast Into Texas Later Today. As This
Occurs...an Increasing Diffluent Configuration To The Upper Level
Height Field Over The Gulf Coast...will Support An Increase In Deep
Layer Lift Today And Tonight. We Also Note A Coastal Boundary/warm
Front Draped From Southern Arkansas Through The Mississippi Gulf
Coast...extending Eastward Into The Northeast Gulf. This Boundary Is
Forecast To Lift Northward Through The Area In The Short Term And
Provide A Surface Focus For Showers And Thunderstorms. Deep Layer
Gulf Moisture Over Spreads The Area With Precipitable Waters
Increasing To 1.6 To 1.8 Inches Today. With The Latest Deep Layer
Omega (lift) Fields And The High Degree Of Atmospheric Moisture In
Place...categorical Coverages Will Be Placed In The Gridded And
Graphical Forecasts. This Rainfall Event Is Still Forecast To
Produce A General 1 To 2 Inch Rain In Area Gauges. However...any
Stronger Storms Will Likely Deposit Localized Higher Amounts.

As Far As Severe Weather...latest Products By The Storm Prediction
Center In Norman Oklahoma Is Calling For Limited Atmospheric
Destabilization And A Low Probability Of Severe Weather As Clouds
And Rain Move In Ahead Of The Best Forcing. However...with The Low
Level Boundary In Place And A Weak Low Forming Up Over Louisiana
This Evening...a Veering Of The Low Level Wind Profiles May Prove
Beneficial For Isolated Instances Of Severe Thunderstorms. If...upon
The Onset Of New Data Suggests That More Destabilization Will Be In
Place...outlooks Could Be Upgraded. Stay Tuned. /10

(tuesday Through Wednesday Night)...a Section Of The Forecast
Area(se Mississippi And Sw Alabama) Will Likely Be In The Warm
Sector Tuesday Morning With Warm Front From Near Pensacola To North
Of Mobile With Cold Front Moving West Across The Mouth Of The
Mississippi River North Into Mississippi. A Good Set Up For Severe
Weather Most Of The Time...but An Expansive Area Of Clouds And Rain
Will Limit The Instability. Still This May See Some Strong Storms
Early Tuesday Over Southwest Alabama And Later In The Afternoon Over
The Florida Panhandle South Of The Warm Front As The Warm Sector
Moves Across. Southwest Winds Forecast To Be Unidirectional But
Speed Shear May Be Sufficient For Some Strong Storms Within The
Line. Cold Front Will Be East Of Destin By Dark Tuesday But May See
Some Patches Of Light Rain Into Wednesday Morning As A Band Of Lower
Clouds Wrap Around The Upper Low...as H5 Temperatures Near -20c
Brush The Northern And Eastern Zones. The Air Mass Behind This
System Is Not As Cool As The Last ...so Not Expecting Anything
Cooler Than The Mid 40s North To Mid 50s Coast. /11

.long Term...(thursday Through Sunday)surface Low And Front Well
East Of Forecast Area By Thursday With Weak Ridge Building South
Across Region And Upper Ridge Moving Slowly East Across Area.
Another Front Approaches The Area Over The Weekend As The Surface
Ridge Moves East And Low Level Moisture Is Pulled Northeast From
Texas And Along The Associated Weak Surface Front. Atmosphere
Moistens Up Enough For Rain To Return To The Forecast On Sunday Over
The Northern Zones...closer To A Stalling Front.

ROLLTIDE

11-07-2006, 06:35 AM

Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
322 Am Cst Tue Nov 7 2006

&&

.short Term...(today And Tonight)deep Upper Trof Into Arkansas Will
Bring A Zone Of Diffluent Flow...supporting Deep Layer Lift Through
The Area Early Today. Considering This And Adequate Deep Layer
Moisture...will Keep A Chance Of Showers And A Few Thunderstorms
Over Most Of The Area...the Highest Coverages We Carry In The
Eastern Zones This Morning. Latest Radar Trends Shows Next Area Of
Precipitation...just Ahead Of The Cold Front...moving Eastward Out
Of Southeast Mississippi...so Feel After 12z(6am) Pop Stratification
In Gridded Forecasts Looks Representative.

Weak Surface Low Pressure Over Western Tennessee Will Continue
Slowly Eastward. As This Occurs...a Cold Front Pushes Through The
Area. As Is Typical This Time Of Year With Southern States Low
Pressure Systems...forecast Problems Will Shift From Rain To Dealing
With Wrap Around...post Frontal Low Cloudiness. With The Expansive
Cloud Canopy Shown On Satellite Images This Morning...will Maintain
A Cloudy Condition In The Forecast. We Should See A General Eastward
Movement To The Clouds Tonight As The Low Slides More East...but
Wouldn`t Be Surprised To See Them Linger Longer In The Forecast.
Cool Advection With A Deepening Northwest Flow...results In Cooler
Mins Tonight. /10

(wednesday Through Thursday Night)surface And H5 Ridge Moves From
West To East Across The Forecast Area During This Time Frame...
Effectively Cutting Off Gulf Moisture From The Forecast Area And
Ensuring Dry Weather And Mostly Sunny Afternoon Skies And Clear
Nights. Air Mass Behind Todays Front Is Of Pacific Origin And After
Slightly Cooler Than Normal Temperatures Today And Wednesday...we
Will Be Back Slightly Above Normal Through Monday. May See A Bit Of
Patchy Fog Wednesday Night Over The Low Spots Where The Winds Go
Calm And The Moisture Content Of The Soil Is Higher. /11

.long Term...a Continuation Of The Mid Week Decent Weather Until
Saturday When We Will Introduce Showers Back In The Forecast. Next
Front Forecast To Be Just West Of Mississippi River By Then With
Moisture Surging North In Advance. This Next System Is Not As
Dynamic As Monday With The Surface And Upper Low Well To The North.
This Next Front Passes Saturday Afternoon Or Night And Is Of Pacific
Origin Again...so Once Again Temperatures Fairly Mild For A Frontal
Passage. Pattern Remains Progressive And Another Frontal System
Expected To Generate Some Rain By The First Of Next Week. More On
This As It Evolves Over The Next Several Days. /11

ROLLTIDE

11-08-2006, 02:26 AM

(wednesday Night Through Thursday Night)...surface And 500 Mb Ridge
Continue Moving To East Dominating The Forecast Area Occluding The
Flow Of Gulf Water Vapor. Patchy Fog Possible Especially In
Topographic Depressions Where Wind Will Likely Be Calm...provided
The Anecedent Soil Moisture Is High Enough And Radiative Processes
Allow Temperature To Fall Far Enough.

BooBoo

11-08-2006, 09:41 AM

My Mardi Gras Org is having a BIG poker run on Sun Nov 19th and I was trying to get an idea of what anyone thinks about what the weather might be like on that day. Yes I knwo it is way off but I need to plan out some shirts and if it is nice then we will have a great turnout..thus more shirts so I am trying to plan a little.

any thoughts about that

ROLLTIDE

11-09-2006, 02:21 PM

rain Thurs/Fri then nice but cool and windy Sat and Sunday

ROLLTIDE

11-10-2006, 07:37 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KMOB 101147AFDMOBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL545 AM CST FRI NOV 10 2006.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESCENTERED OVER THE NE GULF PROGGED TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGHEARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALOFT BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THEEASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD BY EARLY TONIGHT.WITH THIS A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ANDTONIGHT GIVING WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MUCH OF THECWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ANDINCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARYFROM THE WEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATERTONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MS AND EXTREME WESTERNSECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE ATTIMES...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS INCLUDING NORTHERNSECTIONS OF MOBILE BAY BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FORDENSE FOG WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR STRETCHINGSOUTH TO THE NWFL COAST. CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. /32.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...WILL START OFF THE VETERANSDAY WEEKEND WITH A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST LATE SUNDAY. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTH ALONG THENORTHERN GULF COAST...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREABETWEEN MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THEFRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO VARY BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES...RANGINGFROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THEFRONT...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ONLYISOLATED COVERAGE ON VETERANS DAY. WHILE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD NOTBE A MAJOR FACTOR...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURESBEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE A NUISANCE DURING OUTDOOR OBSERVANCEACTIVITIES. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A 20DEGREE DROP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO TONIGHTS LOWS. WEAK UPPERRIDGING WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVEMOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY.INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAYAFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY. GFS IS ABIT SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMPARED TO THEECMWF. AS A RESULT...THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATIONRAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THEEVENT NEARS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH BASE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THEREGION. /22&&

ROLLTIDE

11-14-2006, 07:32 AM

Fxus64 Kmob 141015
Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
410 Am Cst Tue Nov 14 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...active Fall Pattern Continues With
The Next In A Series Of Strong Systems Expected To Begin Its Initial
Charge East Across The Central Gulf Coast Region Tonight. For Today
We Expect To See Dewpoints Gradually Rise From West To East. A Warm
Front Off The South Louisiana Coast Will Move Slowly Northeast In
Response To The Upper Trough Starting To Sharpen Up West Of The
Mississippi River. As The Upper Low Deepens Over The Southern
Plains Tonight...a Surface Low Gens Up Just West Of Memphis After
Midnight...and The Southerly Low Level Flow Kicks Into High Gear
Along The Gulf Coast. Both The Gfs And The Nam Have An Enhanced
Isentropic Upglide And Significantly Reduced Condensation Pressure
Deficits Over The Western Zones This Afternoon And Evening As The
Warm Front Works Up From The Southwest. The Moisture Transport
Vectors On The Nose Of The 12+ G/kg Spec Humidity Gradient Increase
Significantly In Magnitude In Both Models Over The Entire Forecast
Area After Midnight...and We Take Our Pops From 50 West/20 East This
Afternoon (mostly In Layer Lift Induced Light Rains) To Categorical
Pops Area-wide Tonight With Surface Based Convection Working North
Along The Coast. We Introduced The Possibility Of A Few Severe
Storms Over The Southern Zones Late Tonight As The Mlcapes Increase
To Around 800 J/kg In A Very Sheared Environment Under The
Increasing Southerly Llvl Jetmax (0-3km Helicities Running Around
400 M2/s2). It`s A More Typical Severe Weather Pattern For Our Area
And We`ve Seen This Before...the Potential Of Low Topped Supercells
Forming Near The Warm Frontal Boundary Ahead Of The Main
System...and That Is What We Are Most Concerned About Late Tonight
Near The Coast And Offshore. /05

&&

.long Term...(wednesday Through Monday). By 12z Wed Main Upper Trof
Begins To Deepen Over The Mid To Lower Ms River Valley With Sfc Low
Tracking Ne Into Northern Ms And Western Tn. Further South A Rather
Intense Squall Line Is Noted By Both The Gfs And Nam Pushing Across
La And Ms Wed Morning With Attendant Warm Front Moving Inland Across
Southern Sections Of The Cwfa. Near And Along The Warm Front
Vertical Shear Profiles Increase Substantially After Sunrise Wed
With Both The Gfs And Nam Depicting 0-3km Helicities Ranging From
200 M2/s2 Near The Coast To Near 500 M2/s2 Over Extreme Northern
Sections Of The Cwfa. Best Instability Will Be Over The Southern
Half Of The Cwfa Wed Morning With Model Sfc Based Capes Climbing To
Near 1500 J/kg Over The Southern Half Early Wed Then To Near 1000
J/kg Further Inland Along The Front Wed Aft. With This Spc Has
Placed Much Of Al And Ms In A Slight Risk For Widespread Severe
Thunderstorm Development Mostly For Wed Ahead And Along The Sfc Cold
Front. With This Will Continue To Mention The Chance For Severe Wx
In The Public Products For Wed. Due To The Strength Of This System
An Upgrade To The Severity Could Be Possible As We Near This Time
Frame...also. Stay Tuned For Further Updates Throughout The Day.
Will Go With The Current Mav Temps For Wed.

By Wed Evening Main Upper Trof/low Center Begins To Lift Off To The
Northeast Tracking Across The Tn River Valley Late Wed Night.
Further South Sfc Cold Front Follows In The Wake Of The Squall Line
Moving East Of The Dts Shortly After 00z Thu. A Gradual Wind Shift
To The Nw In The Lowers Levels Can Be Expected Through Thu Afternoon
Shifting Mostly N Thu Night As Pacific High Builds Over The Western
Gulf And North Central Gulf Coast. Sfc Ridge Will Maintain Strength
Over The Central Gulf States Through Much Of The Weekend With Only A
Weak Impulse Passing Well To The N Over The Tn River Valley Late
Sun. With This Will Continue To Keep A Rain Free Forecast Through
The Weekend. By Early Next Week Broad Mid To Upper Trof Eventually
Moves Off The Eastern Seaboard Giving Way To A Broad Mid To Upper
Ridge Setting Up Over Much Of The Se Conus Later In The Week. High
Pres Near The Sfc Also Becomes Reinforced Over The Region From This
Pattern By Early Next Week. As A Result A Slight Warming Trend Will
Likely Occur As This Upper Ridge Builds Over The Se. Will Continue
To Use The Current 00z Mex Guidance For Temps. /32

&&

.marine...small Craft Advisories For The Impending Increase In Winds
Over 20 Knots Are Already In Effect For Tonight And Wednesday. The
Gfs Backed Off A Bit On The 40 Kt Winds...sustained Around 30 Kts
But Still Indicated Gusts At Gale Force To Around 45 Kts At Times.
Will Keep The Small Craft Advisory Going And Hold Off On A Gale
Warning For Now...however Later Shifts Will Continue To Evaluate The
Potential For Sustained Winds At Gale Force (or Frequent Gusts To
Gale). We Advertised Tides Above Normal For Wednesday With The
Strong South Winds...but Given We Are Going Into A Neap Tide Cycle
We Will Hold Off On Highlightning Any Coastal Flood Threat For Now.
/05

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns Through Thursday. Afternoon Relative
Humidities Will Have To Be Closely Monitored Friday Through Monday.
/32

ROLLTIDE

11-15-2006, 03:43 AM

.short Term (tonight Through Thursday Night)...as The Upper System
East Of The Central Us Rockies Dives Southeast Into
Wednesday..organizing At It Comes...the Warm Front Along The Coast
Will Continue To Organize...then Start Moving North Later Tonight
Into Wednesday. Question Is When. Have A Feeling It Wills Tart
Working Its Way North Around Sunrise Wednesday...when The Low Level
Flow Gets Really Strong. Gfs Is Advertising A Blow Up Over
Southeastern La...blowing The Winds Up Beginning Of The
Forecast...but This Looks Like Convective Feedback...and Am Leaning
Towards The Nam Timing In The Low Level Flow Building Through The
Night Before Coming To A Head Wednesday Daytime. Do Feel There Will
Be Isentropic Upglide Induced Showers Through The Night North Of The
Warm Front. The Amount Of Rain We Get With This Pre-squall Line
Showers May Delay The Warm Front Crawling North Later Tonight.

For Wednesday...the Warm Front Is/has Begun Moving North As The
Stronger Upper Dynamics Move Over The Lower Miss River Valley. Gfs
And Nam Are In Pretty Good Agreement With Timing Of A Squall Line
Crossing The Area...with The Line Moving Over Western Sections Of The
Fa Mid Morning...splitting The Fa In Half Noontime Or A Bit
After....and Near Or Just Past The Eastern Border Of The Fa By
Sunset. Both Nam And Gfs Are Advertising Enough Cape For Strong
Storms...and Enough Helicity For Rotation (strong Rotation Actually).
Its Looking Like Wind Damage Will Be The Primary Threat From The Line
Going Through...though With The High Helicities Expected...low Level
Spinners Can`t Be Ruled Out.

For Wednesday Night...the Worst Of The Weather Should Basically Be
Over For Most Of The Fa. The Squall Line Will Be Near...but
Basically East Of The Eastern Border By The Beginning Of Wednesday
Evening. Some Lingering Showers East With Some Wrap-around Induced
Showers North. Wrap-around Clouds Will Hang Around Over Most Of The
Area...with Light Showers Possible Northern Areas Of The Fa As The
Upper System Begins To Move Northeast. The Fa Should Clear Out
Thursday As The Upper System Continues Its Northeastward Trek Away
From The Fa And Low Level Flow Becomes Northwesterly....with
Thursday Night Looking To Be Cold...clear Night.

.long Term (friday Through Monday)...have Had Little Chance To Delve
Into The Extended Due The More Pressing Short Term. The Fa Remains
Under Dry...low Level Northerly Flow Into The Coming Week...with Weak
Re- Enforcement Saturday. Another System Dives Southeast From Over
The Northern Plains Sunday...ending Up Over The Carolinas By Tuesday.
See Little In The Way Of Precip...just More Re-enforcing Of The
Northerly Flow.

ROLLTIDE

11-15-2006, 10:08 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

ROLLTIDE

11-16-2006, 10:56 AM

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 57. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

ROLLTIDE

11-20-2006, 07:49 AM

Urgent - Weather Message
National Weather Service Mobile Al
638 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2006

...a Freeze Watch Is In Effect From Late Monday Night Through
Tuesday Morning For Inland Areas Of Southeast Mississippi...
Southwest Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle...

.discussion...an Upper Level Trough Will Drop Southward Across
The Area Today Bringing A Reinforcing Shot Of Much Colder Air To The
Area For Tonight Into Tuesday Morning. A Few Areas Across Interior
Southeast Mississippi And Southwest Alabama Have Already Experienced
Short Lived...light Freezes During The Past Month. However...this
Airmass Will Bring The Coldest And Most Widespread Temperatures Of At
Or Below Freezing So Far This Season. Several Hours Of At Or Below
Freezing Temperatures Are Expected Across Inland Areas Of Southeast
Mississippi...southwest Alabama And The Western Florida Panhandle.

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-202045-
/o.con.kmob.fz.a.0003.061121t0600z-061121t1300z/
Choctaw-washington-clarke-wilcox-monroe-conecuh-butler-crenshaw-
Escambia-covington-upper Mobile-upper Baldwin-inland Escambia-
Inland Santa Rosa-inland Okaloosa-wayne-perry-greene-stone-george-
Including The Cities Of...butler...lisman...silas...chatom...
Millry...jackson...thomasville...grove Hill...camden...
Pine Hill...homewood...monroeville...evergreen...greenv ille...
Luverne...brantley...atmore...brewton...east Brewton...
Andalusia...opp...prichard...saraland...bay Minette...century...
Flomaton...molino...jay...crestview...waynesboro.. .richton...
Beaumont...new Augusta...leakesville...mclain...wiggins...
Lucedale
638 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2006

...freeze Watch Remains In Effect From Late Tonight Through
Tuesday Morning...

A Freeze Watch Remains In Effect From Late Tonight Through
Tuesday Morning.

Temperatures Are Expected To Drop To Around Freezing By Midnight
Before Dropping Into The Upper Twentys To Around 30 Degrees By
Sunrise Tuesday.

A Freeze Watch Means Sub-freezing Temperatures Are Possible. These
Conditions Could Kill Crops And Other Sensitive Vegetation.

ROLLTIDE

11-25-2006, 10:12 AM

.long Term...(tuesday Through Saturday)...as The Western States
Upper Level Trough Slowly Moves East...sfc Low Pressure Will Develop
Across The Northern Plains And Shift Rapidly Northeastward Into
Southern Canada On Wednesday. Upper Ridging Over The Southeast Will
Gradually Breakdown As Upper Level Heights Fall In Advance Of The
Upper Trough. As A Result...sfc Flow Will Also Veer To A More
Southerly Direction Allowing Pw Values To Climb Back Above 1.5
Inches. Another Wave Of Low Pressure Is Forecast To Develop Along
This Front Late On Wednesday Across The Upper Midwest As Another
Shortwave Digs Into The Base Of The Upper Trough. This Will Help
Give The Front The Push It Needs To Move Toward The Area. Showers
And Thunderstorms Will Increase Across The Region Late Wednesday
Into Thursday As The Cold Front Approaches And Moves Through
Thursday Morning. Spc Continues To Outlook The Forecast Area For
Possible Severe Thunderstorms Ahead Of The Front In The 4-8 Day
Convective Outlook. Right Now Conditions Look Rather Borderline And
Nowhere Near The Conditions Of Last Week`s Severe Weather. A Sharp
Change Back To Colder Temps Occurs In The Wake Of The Front Friday And
Saturday. /13

ROLLTIDE

11-26-2006, 07:54 AM

Long Term...(wednesday Through Sunday)...this Is A Rather Low
Confidence Forecast Period. Global Models Continue To Show A Slowing
Trend To The Expected Frontal Passage Sometime Late Thursday Or
Early Friday Due To The Strong Upper Ridge Over The Southwest
Atlantic. In Advance Of The Front...widespread Showers And
Thunderstorms Are Expected On Thursday. A Few Strong Thunderstorms
Are Possible As Strong Wind Fields Will Be In Place. The
Uncertainty Also Wreaking Havoc In The Mex Guidance Numbers (temps
And Pops) During This Period. Ensemble Temps Are Not Much Help
Either W/ Spreads Of 23 Degrees For The Low Fri Night. Standard
Deviations During The Thu Through Fri Period Also Very High Showing
The High Variation Between Ensemble Members. This Is Also An
Indication Of The Very Shallow Nature Of The Cold Airmass Behind The
Front And Highs On Friday Could End Up Not Getting Out Of The 50s
Under Strong Northerly Winds. 26.00z Gfs/ecmwf Also Lift The Upper
Trough Out Quickly W/ Zonal Flow Returning For The Weekend...which
Would Keep The Coldest Values Out Of The Area. Guidance Values Are
About In The Middle Of The Spread But Will Undoubtedly Need
Adjustment As The Event Nears. For Now...cool And Dry Conditions Are
Expected For Next Weekend. /13

ROLLTIDE

11-27-2006, 07:01 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
440 Am Cst Mon Nov 27 2006

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...surface Ridge That Has Been
Anchored Across The Forecast Area The Last Several Days Has Finally
Begun To Weaken. Atlantic Moisture Being Drawn West Will Bring
Higher Dew Points To The Area Later Today Or This Evening. Moisture
Is Shallow...only Up To About 850 Millibars But Should Be Enough To
Bring More Cloudiness To The Region Than We Have Had For A While.
Trajectory Will Still Be Mostly Over Land And The Cooler Near Shore
Waters So Have Only Went With Patchy Fog For Tonight At This Time.
No Pops And Stayed Close To Guidance On Temperatures...did Increase
Destin`s Max A Bit As They Were 6 Degrees Warmer Than Guidance
Sunday. /11

(tuesday And Wednesday)...upper Level Ridge Continues To Dominate
Tuesday. Meanwhile...sfc High Shifts East Allowing Moisture To
Increase Across The Area In Advance Of An Upper Level Trough Digging
Into The Four Corners Region. Due To The Strength Of The Upper Ridge
And Thus The Slower Frontal Motion...have Left Tuesday Dry. Did
Bring In Isolated Pops Late Tuesday Night Into Wednesday As A Few
Showers Are Expected To Develop In The Strong Warm Air Advection
Regime. Mild Temps Continue W/ Low To Mid 70s Expected.

.long Term...(thursday Through Monday)...the Trend Of A Later Fropa
Continue In The Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Runs...into Late Thursday Or
Friday Morning. Thus The Highest Rain Chances Are In The Thu
Night/fri Morning Time Range. Included Thunderstorms In The Wording
For This Period As Well As Instability Increases Along W/ Better
Upper Dynamics. As Mentioned By Spc...models Agree On The Upper Trough
Taking A Negative Tilt As It Moves Across The Mid South. This Will
Have To Be Monitored In Later Forecasts For Strong/severe
Thunderstorm Potential. Much Cooler And Drier Air Will Flow Into The
Area On Friday Behind The Front W/ Temps Struggling To Reach The Mid
50s Under Strong Caa And Slow Clearing. However...the Main Brunt Of
The Cold Airmass Misses The Area As Trough Quickly Lifts Out And
Upper Flow Becomes Southwesterly In Advance Of A More Significant
Upper Trough Progged To Dig Into The Southwest. Rain Chances
Re-enter The Forecast On Monday As An Overrunning Pattern Looks To
Develop As Isentropic Lift Increases Ahead Of Impulses Ejecting Out
Of The Southwest Trough. /13

ROLLTIDE

11-29-2006, 01:44 AM

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING ACROSS SE MS.SOUTHWEST AL.& NORTHWEST FL. VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR FIRST IN THE S. PORTIONS OF THE REGION.ESPECIALLY IN OPEN & LOW LYING AREAS.WHILE MOVING INLAND QUICKLY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITY WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING.SLOW DOWN.USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS.& LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. AREA COMMUTERS SHOULD PLAN TO LEAVE FOR DESTINATIONS EARLY. PARENTS WITH SCHOOL CHILDREN SHOULD ALSO PLAN AHEAD FOR SAFETY.AS MOTORISTS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING BYSTANDERS AT TRANSPORT PICKUP POINTS.AS WELL AS PEDESTRIANS & BICYCLISTS.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2006, 09:22 PM

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1253 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2006...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING....A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSSTHE INLAND AREAS. A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSSTHE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDESTTEMPERATURES SEEN IN NEARLY 2 YEARS ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURESMONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THELOWER 20S NORTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI...TO MOBILE...TOCRESTVIEW FLORIDA. MID AND UPPER 20S ARE PROJECTED SOUTH OF THATALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED ALONGTHE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ANDEARLY WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S OVERTHE INTERIOR COUNTIES.ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-040400-/O.NEW.KMOB.FZ.A.0004.061205T0500Z-061205T1300Z/CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...MILLRY...J ACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAS T BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SP ANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...F ERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT ...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDAL E1253 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2006...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN NEARLY 2 YEARS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLYTUESDAY...WITH RECORD BREAKING LOW READINGS NOW BEING FORECAST ALLTHE WAY TO THE COAST.A HARD FREEZE...THAT BEING DEFINED AS A FREEZE WHERE TEMPERATURESREMAIN AS COLD AS THE MIDDLE 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS...IS EXPECTEDMONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS NORTH OF ALINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI...TO MOBILE...TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA.SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THECOAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAYNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTOTHE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE TIME TO CHECK ON EXPOSED WATER PIPES TOENSURE ADEQUATE INSULATION IS IN PLACE...AS WELL AS MAKING A PLAN OFWHAT PETS AND PLANTS THEY MAY NEED TO BRING INDOORS. MOTORISTS IN THEINTERIOR COUNTIES OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH ALABAMA SHOULDENSURE THEIR AUTOMOBILES HAVE ADEQUATE ANTI-FREEZE...ESPECIALLY IFTHE AUTOMOBILE IS LEFT PARKED OUTDOORS DURING THE NIGHT FOR ANEXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.IT IS A VERY GOOD IDEA TO CHECK THE WORKING STATUS OF YOUR HOME HEATINGSYSTEM...AS WELL AS YOUR CARBON MONOXIDE AND SMOKE DETECTORS. ALSOCHECK ON ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AND RELATIVES TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVEADEQUATE HEAT.AREA RELIEF AGENCIES AND SHELTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGHER DEMANDDUE TO THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAINTUESDAY NIGHT.LAST BUT NOT LEAST...AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER ANYPROTECTIVE MEASURES THEY WILL HAVE TO TAKE FOR THE UNUSUALLY COLDTEMPERATURES.$$

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2006, 07:45 AM

HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST TUESDAY.

.A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUES FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MS.SOUTHWEST AL & THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTL GULF COAST REGION WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO REACH READINGS NOT SEEN HERE FOR NEARLY 2 YEARS. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH NEAR 20 NO. OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN & CAMDEN AL.
LWR 20S NO. OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS.TO MOBILE.TO CRESTVIEW FL. ELSEWHERE.LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FROM THERE TO THE LWR 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD TEMPS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REBOUNDING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT'S LOWS.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041800-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FZ.A.0004.061205T0500Z-061205T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FZ.W.0007.061205T0500Z-061205T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LWR MOBILE- LWR BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.
TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.DAPHNE.FAIRHOPE.FOLEY.
SPANISH FORT.CENTURY.FLOMATON.MOLINO.PENSACOLA.
FERRY PASS.BRENT.WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.
MYRTLE GROVE.JAY.PACE.MILTON.GULF BREEZE.CRESTVIEW.
WRIGHT.FORT WALTON BEACH.NICEVILLE.DESTIN.SEMINOLE.
EGLIN AFB.VALPARAISO.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.BEAUMONT.
NEW AUGUSTA.LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.LUCEDALE
415 AM CST MON DEC 4 2006

.HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST TUESDAY.

THE COLDEST TEMPS SEEN IN NEARLY 2 YEARS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY.WITH RECORD BREAKING LOWS OCCURRING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.

HARD FREEZE.DEFINED AS TEMPS REMAINING IN OR NEAR THE MIDDLE 20S FOR SEVERAL HRS.EXPECTED MON NIGHT & EARLY TUES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS NO. OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS.
TO MOBILE.TO CRESTVIEW FL. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST EARLY TUES MORNING.

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE TIME TO CHECK ON EXPOSED WATER PIPES TO ENSURE ADEQUATE INSULATION IS IN PLACE.AS WELL AS MAKING PLANS FOR PETS & PLANTS INDOORS. CLOSE AUTOMATIC IRRIGATION SYSTEMS.
AT THE METER IF POSSIBLE.& CYCLE THROUGH EVERY CIRCUIT TO ENSURE THE WATER IN THE LINES & RISERS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARED. BRING IN GARDEN HOSES FROM THE OUTSIDE AS ANY REMAINING WATER IN THE HOSES MAY CAUSE THEM TO RUPTURE. ENSURE VEHICLES & STATIONARY ENGINES SUCH AS AUTOMATIC GENERATORS HAVE ADEQUATE ANTIFREEZE.

CHECK YOUR HOME HEATING SYSTEM AS WELL AS CARBON MONOXIDE AND SMOKE DETECTORS. ALSO CHECK ON ELDERLY NEIGHBORS & RELATIVES ENSURING THEY HAVE ADEQUATE HEAT. ENSURE SPACE HEATERS ARE SAFE AND IN WORKING ORDER.

AREA RELIEF AGENCIES & SHELTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGH DEMAND DUE TO COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS MON & TUES NIGHT.

AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONSIDER ANY PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO TAKE FOR LIVESTOCK.GREENHOUSES.ORCHARDS.& MACHINERY FOR THESE UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPS.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. AGAIN.THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS & OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$

ROLLTIDE

12-06-2006, 09:14 AM

Long Term...(thursday Through Tuesday). By 12z Thu Strong Sfc Front
Moves Off Ms/al Coast With Some High Based Residual Moisture Mostly
In The Form Of Mid To High Clouds Lingering Over The Western Florida
Panhandle And The Adjacent Gulf Waters. This Cloudiness Pushes Well
Offshore By 18z Thu Giving Way To Mostly Sunny Skies And Cold
Temperatures Late Thu Through Early Sat. In The Wake Of The Mid To
Upper Trof...sfc High Pressure Builds Over Much Of The Se Conus And
Tn River Valley Giving Way To Mostly Clear Skies And Near Seasonable
Temps Sat Afternoon Through Early Next Week. Weak Ridge Aloft And
High Pres Near The Sfc Move Off The Atlc Seaboard By Late Sun Into
Mon Giving Way To A General East To Southeast Wind Flow Over Much Of
The Cwfa Late Mon Through Tue. Return Flow Will Steadily Increase On
Tues In Response To Next Long Wave Trof/sfc Cold Front Approaching
From The West. Latest Long Range Proggs Depict This Next System To
Be Somewhat Progressive With Plenty Of Moisture To Work With Giving
Way To Widespread Precip Over Much Of The Region. With This Have
Introduced Slightly Higher Pops In The Later Part Of The Extended
Periods. Believe As We Approach This Time Frame Rain Chances Will
Likely Increase Area Wide Tues Through Early Thu. Will Continue To
Lean Towards The Current 00z Mex Guidance For Temps In The Extended
Periods. /32

ROLLTIDE

12-08-2006, 07:07 AM

.A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SE MS & SO. AL THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

.A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL INLAND AREAS TO JUST NO. OF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT.

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 20S THIS MORNING FOR AREAS NO. OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS.TO MOBILE.TO CRESTVIEW. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH READING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SE MS & INTERIOR SOUTH AL. LWR TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED JUST NO. OF THE COAST WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE BEACHES. THIS CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE FOR THE INLAND AREAS TONIGHT.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081500-
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/O.CON.KMOB.FZ.W.0009.061209T0600Z-061209T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.CENTURY.
FLOMATON.MOLINO.JAY.CRESTVIEW.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.
BEAUMONT.NEW AUGUSTA.LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.
LUCEDALE
519 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

.FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
.FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY.

TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MIDDLE 20S WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY 10 AM. MODERATE NO. WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT.A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS NO. OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS.TO MOBILE.TO CRESTVIEW BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LWR TO MIDDLE 20S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SO. TO JUST NO. OF THE COAST.

CHECK EXPOSED WATER PIPES FOR ADEQUATE INSULATION.MOVE PETS INDOORS.
CHECK VEHICLES FOR ADEQUATE ANTIFREEZE. CHECK ON ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AND RELATIVES. MAKE SURE SPACE HEATERS ARE IN GOOD WORKING ORDER AND PLACED AWAY FROM COMBUSTIBLE MATERIALS.

AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR LIVESTOCK.GREENHOUSES.ORCHARDS.& MACHINERY FOR THESE UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPS.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS LOCALLY DEFINED AS TEMP REACHING
26 DEGREES OR LESS FOR MORE THAN 5 HRS BEING IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL MOST CROPS & OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$

ROLLTIDE

12-10-2006, 08:08 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
450 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...early This Sunday Morning...
Satellite Imagery And Upper Air Data Show Open Trough Lifting Newd
Over E Tx. Arctic Sfc Ridge Center Has Shifted To Mid Atlc Coast And
Our Local Region Now Within Light Ne Flow Along Coast...and
De-coupled Inland Where Sfc Inversion Is Stronger...cold Air A Tad
Bit Deeper. As Sfc High Moved E Last Evening...most Locations Were
Near Their Minimum Temperature During The Late Evening Or Just After
Midnight. Today..some Mid But Mostly High Clouds Will Continue To
Stream Sw->ne Over Our Region As Tx Trough Dampens While Movg E.
Could See Some Sprinkles (left Far 10% Sw Zones)...but For The Most
Part...no Measurable Pcpn Is Forecast On Average For Any One Zone.
At 10.06 Utc...radar And Satellite Already Shows Subsidence Movg
Into Wrn La...so Could Salvage A Mostly Sunny Second-half Of This
Sunday. Held Off On Mention Of Patchy Fog Tnt Because We Feel
Models Try To Bring Back Sfc Moisture Too Fast. This Was Reflected
In Gridded Forecast. By Monday Morning...tx Trough Dampens
Completely And Region Is In Slgt Waa Pattern. As Far As Temps...this
Was Last Cold Night. Today Highs Will Range From The Upper 5os To
Lower 60s...while Min Temps Tonight Will Range From Upper 30s Inland
To Lower 50s Along Coast. No Wind Problems And Did Not Make Any
Significant Departures Form Guidance On Temperatures Today Or Tnt.
/23

ROLLTIDE

12-11-2006, 10:21 AM

.short Term (today And Tonight)...sfc High Pressure Centered Over
The Western Carolinas Will Continue To Drift Northward And Weaken
Through Tonight. To The West A Weak Inverted Trof Was Noted Off The
Texas Coast. Aloft A Deep Trof Of Low Pressure Was Noted Over The
Rockies Progged To Drift East To The Central Plains Through Tonight.
With This Pattern Expect A Moderate East To Southeast Wind Flow To
Persist Through Tonight Giving Way To Increasing Low Level Moisture
Mostly In The Form Low To Mid Clouds With Some Patchy Fog Near
Sunrise Early Tues. Will Introduce A Slight Chance Of Showers This
Afternoon Becoming Scattered Tonight Mostly Over The Western Half Of
The Cwfa. Will Stay Close To The Current Mavmos For Temps. /32

&&

.long Term (tuesday Through Sunday)...the Plains System Quickly
Ejects From Iowa To Across The Western Great Lakes Through Tuesday
Night Meanwhile Bringing A Cold Front Through The Forecast Area.
Precipitable Water Values Attain 1.5 Inches Ahead Of The
Front...about 150 Percent Of Normal. The Well Defined Mid Level
System Will Result In The Best Deep Layer Lift Over The Northern
Portion Of The Forecast Area As The Front Moves Through. Given This
And The Fairly High Deep Layer Moisture...opted To Raise Pops To The
Categorical Range Over The Northern Portion As The Front Moves
Through With General Likely Pops Elsewhere. Instability Will
Support Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms As The Front Moves Through.
Low Level Ridging And Dry Weather Follow In The Wake Of The Front
Through The Remainder Of The Week...although The Forecast Picture
Becomes Progressively Rather Unclear. The Gfs Has A Subtle Easterly
Wave Which Manifests A Surface Low Advancing Northward From The
Yucatan On Thursday While A Shortwave System Advances Across Texas.
While The Upper System Looks Reasonable And Is Echoed By The Ecmwf
And The Gem...the Easterly Wave And Surface Feature Looks Doubtful
And Is Only Depicted By The Gfs. Consequently...went With A Dry
Forecast Through Saturday Which Is In Agreement With Adjacent
Offices. A Small Chance Of Rain Is Added For Saturday Night And
Sunday As The Upper Level Shortwave Moves Across The Area And Low
Level Ridging Has Shifted Into The Atlantic Allowing For A Light
Return Flow. Temperatures Generally Remain Above Seasonable Levels
Through The Period. /29

&&

ROLLTIDE

12-13-2006, 07:10 AM

DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST.

.DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DENSE FOG OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE & ADJACENT AL COUNTIES.BUT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE REMAINING EARLY MORNING HRS OVER THESE AREA. THE DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM CST.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-131500-
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CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LWR MOBILE- LWR BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.
TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.DAPHNE.FAIRHOPE.FOLEY.
SPANISH FORT.CENTURY.FLOMATON.MOLINO.PENSACOLA.
FERRY PASS.BRENT.WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.
MYRTLE GROVE.JAY.PACE.MILTON.GULF BREEZE.CRESTVIEW.
WRIGHT.FORT WALTON BEACH.NICEVILLE.DESTIN.SEMINOLE.
EGLIN AFB.VALPARAISO.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.BEAUMONT.
NEW AUGUSTA.LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.LUCEDALE
507 AM CST WED DEC 13 2006

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG.REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE.WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING.SLOW DOWN.
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS.& LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

ROLLTIDE

12-14-2006, 06:55 AM

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY.

.AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THUR MORNING. THE DENSE FOG IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AROUND 9 AM CST THUR MORNING.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141500-
/O.CON.KMOB.FG.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-061214T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LWR MOBILE- LWR BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.
TILLMANS CORNER.THEODORE.DAPHNE.FAIRHOPE.FOLEY.
SPANISH FORT.CENTURY.FLOMATON.MOLINO.PENSACOLA.
FERRY PASS.BRENT.WEST PENSACOLA.BELLVIEW.ENSLEY.
MYRTLE GROVE.JAY.PACE.MILTON.GULF BREEZE.CRESTVIEW.
WRIGHT.FORT WALTON BEACH.NICEVILLE.DESTIN.SEMINOLE.
EGLIN AFB.VALPARAISO.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.BEAUMONT.
NEW AUGUSTA.LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.LUCEDALE
512 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.SLOW YOUR DRIVING SPEEDS.USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS.& LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

ROLLTIDE

12-15-2006, 09:31 AM

Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
345 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2006

.short Term (today And Tonight)...high Pressure Over The Lower
Mississippi River Valley Will Shift East Through Tonight. Dense
Fog Will Dissipate This Morning Then Redevelop Tonight.
Temperatures Remain Well Above Seasonable Levels. /32

&&

.long Term (saturday Through Thursday)...surface Ridging Remains
Over The Southeast States Through Monday As A Longwave System
Advances Into The Western States. Expect That Fog Will Redevelop
Saturday Night And Sunday Night As A Similar Pattern Continues Over
The Area With Light Onshore Flow Over Cool Near Shore Waters. The
Approaching Longwave System Cuts Off An Upper Low Over The Desert
Southwest/northwest Mexico Which Advances Across The Southern Plains
Through Thursday. Shortwave Energy Ejecting From This System Sends
A Series Of Surface Waves Zipping Eastward Along A Frontal Boundary
Stalled From The Southern Plains To The Northeast States. These
Will Bring Small Pops To The Area Tuesday Through Wednesday. As The
Main System Advances Across The Southern Plains...a Surface Low
Develops Near The Texas Coast On Wednesday And Moves Across The
Lower Mississippi River Valley To Western Tennessee On Thursday.
Instability At This Time Appears Too Limited To Suggest Much Of A
Severe Weather Threat With This System But Will Need To Continue To
Monitor As This Will Bring A Front And Deep Layer Lift Across The
Forecast Area On Thursday. Temperatures Remain About Ten Degrees
Above Seasonable Levels Through Wednesday Night With More Seasonable
Temperatures Following In The Wake Of The Cold Front. /29

&&

.marine...high Pressure Centered Over The Lower Mississippi River
Valley Will Drift Slowly East Through Tuesday. A Light Northerly
Wind Flow Will Gradually Shift East Then Southeast Through The
Period. Areas Of Dense Fog Mostly Near Shore And Over Inland Bays
And Sounds Will Continue To Develop Mostly At Night And Continue
Through The Morning Hours Through Sunday. /32

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns. /29

ROLLTIDE

12-16-2006, 01:48 AM

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG & SO. OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY.

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NO. OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.DENSE FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA-WIDE TONIGHT & WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES FALL BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE FOR SEVERAL HRS TONIGHT & INTO SAT MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FALLING TO LESS THAN 500 FEET.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-161100-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FG.Y.0020.061216T0247Z-061216T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WA-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BUTLER.LISMAN.SILAS.CHATOM.
MILLRY.JACKSON.THOMASVILLE.GROVE HILL.CAMDEN.
PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.
LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.ATMORE.BREWTON.EAST BREWTON.
ANDALUSIA.OPP.PRICHARD.SARALAND.BAY MINETTE.CENTURY.
FLOMATON.MOLINO.JAY.CRESTVIEW.WAYNESBORO.RICHTON.
BEAUMONT.NEW AUGUSTA.LEAKESVILLE.MCLAIN.WIGGINS.
LUCEDALE
847 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2006

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES FALL BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE FOR SEVERAL HRS TONIGHT & INTO SAT MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FALLING TO LESS THAN 500 FEET.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING.SLOW DOWN.USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS.& LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

ROLLTIDE

12-19-2006, 02:31 AM

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND SE MS.PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL & THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

.AREAS OF DENSE FOG.REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A QUARTER MILE.WILL BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

ALZ054>058-060-191500-
/O.EXB.KMOB.FG.Y.0023.061219T0800Z-061219T1500Z/
WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-COVINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.CAMDEN.PINE HILL.HOMEWOOD.
MONROEVILLE.EVERGREEN.GREENVILLE.LUVERNE.BRANTLEY.
ANDALUSIA.OPP
158 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITY WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN & DIP HEADLIGHTS. USING MAIN BEAMS WILL EFFECTIVELY REDUCE YOUR FORWARD VISIBLITY DUE TO LIGHT REFLECTION OFF THE FOG. LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. BE WATCHFUL FOR PEDESTRIANS ESPECIALLY SCHOOL STUDENTS WALKING OR AT BUS STOPS.

ROLLTIDE

12-20-2006, 07:12 AM

Long Term (wednesday Through Next Tuesday)...models Still
Indicating That We Will Be Moving Into A Much Wetter Pattern During
The Middle Part Of This Week...with The Pcpn Chances Continuing
Through Christmas And Into The Early Part Of Next Week. While Models
Have Been Consistent With Overall Fcst Solutions...there Remains Run
To Run Timing Differences. Models Still Consistent With A Cold Front
Approaching The Mississippi River From The West Early Wednesday...
With A Warm Front Moving North Across The Fcst Area. Lift Along The
Warm Front And In Advance Of The Cold Front Will Increase Our Rain
Chances From West To East...beginning Over Our Mississippi Zones
Tonight...then Over The Entire Fcst Area Thursday Through Friday
Night As The Front Moves Slowly Eastward Across The Region. Gfs Is
Indicating That A Strong Mid/upper Level Disturbance Will Result In
The Development Of A Weak Sfc Low Along The Front On Friday...moving
Northeast Across Our Fcst Area Friday Night...keeping The Weather
Unsettled With A Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. The Front Is
Expected To Continue To Move South And East Of The Area On
Saturday...stalling Over The Gulf Of Mexico. A More Dynamic Upper
Level Disturbance Will Cross The Northern Gulf Late Saturday Night
And Sunday...developing An Even Stronger Sfc Low Pressure Area Over
The Northeastern Gulf Along The Front On Sunday...moving Northeast
Toward The Florida Panhandle/big Bend Region By Sunday Night. In
The Wake Of This Low Pressure...chances For Precipitation Will
Continue Christmas Day Into Early Tuesday...as Yet Another Series Of
Upper Air Disturbances Move East Across The Region In The Base Of A
Deepening Upper Level Trof...but This Pcpn Will Be More Stratiform
Than Convective As The Fcst Area Will Be On The Cooler And More
Stable Side Of The System. Temperatures Will Drop Closer To
Seasonable Norms In The Wake Of The Late Week Fropa...then Likely
Cool To Below Normal By Christmas Day. Cooling Trend Will Be
Continuing At The End Of The Fcst Period...with Possibility Of Small
Pcpn Chances...so As Previous Fcst Shift Said...questions Remain As
To Whether Or Not The Airmass Will Be Cold Enough Over Any Part Of
The Fcst Area To See Any Freezing/frozen Precip By Periods End. /12

&&

ROLLTIDE

12-21-2006, 05:47 AM

The Wake Of This Low Pressure...there Remains A Slight Chance For
Precipitation To Continue Christmas Day Through Next Tuesday With
Wrap Around Moisture Present And An Upper Low Moving East Across The
Southeastern States. Still Monitoring As To Whether Or Not The
Airmass Will Be Cold Enough Over Any Part Of The Fcst Area To See
Any Freezing/frozen Precip Christmas Day Night Or Early Next
Tuesday. Drier

ROLLTIDE

12-25-2006, 02:04 PM

Area Forecast Discussion...update
National Weather Service Mobile Al
115 Pm Cst Mon Dec 25 2006

.update (rest Of Today And Tonight)...we Sent Out A Quick Update To
Adjust Temps (mainly In The West)...and To Adjust The Wind Forecast
Over The Land Areas Upward Through Tonight. With The Continued
Mixing Through The Boundary Layer Tonight...and The Low Cloud Deck
Hanging In...the Slightly Warmer Mav Temps Looked Adequate So Went
With That For Tonight. We Are Watching An Extensive Area Of Very
Light Rain/drizzle Moving East Out Of East Texas And Western
Louisiana. This Is In Association With A Vigorous Vort Max
Extending From East Texas Down Into The Northwestern Gulf Of
Mexico...rotating Eastward Through The Base Of The Midlevel Trough.
The Gfs And Nam Both Have An Area Of Increased Isentropic Lift And
Lower Condensation Pressure Deficits At The 305k Surface Across
Western And Southwest Louisiana Ahead Of This Feature...and Move It
Eastward Tonight Then Take That Zone Of Enhanced Lift Northeast
Across Our Northwestern Zones. Right Now We Have Higher Pops
Northwest With 20 (slight Chance) Pops Across Our Southern And
Eastern Zones. Will Let That Ride For This Update...but Will Take A
Much Closer Look At It For The 4 Pm Package. /05

ROLLTIDE

12-26-2006, 08:40 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
348 Am Cst Tue Dec 26 2006

.synopsis...for The Forecast...biggest Forecast Bugaboo The Next
Couple Of Days Is Temps...with Timing The Next Rain The Next Problem
Thereafter. Currently...though...after Taking A Look At The Water
Vapor Imagery And Upper Air Analysis...a Pretty Sharp Trough Is In
Evidence...running From Over Southeast La To Hudson Bay...with A
Circulation Center Over The La Coast. An Upper Ridge Stretched
Northeast Over The Western Conus From The Eastern Pacific...with
Another Ridge Off The Atlantic Seaboard. The Latest Surface Analysis
Shows That The Surface Low Associated With This System Has Moved To
Just South Of Lake Erie...with A Surface Front Along The East
Coast...another Which Has Formed The Last 24 Hrs Stretched From Near
Knew Northeast To Southern Oh. The Airmass Over The Southern Plains
To The Western Half Of The Southeast Has Dried Out Quite
Nicely...with Precip H20 Values Over The Lower Miss River Valley Ans
Western Half Of The Southeast Around 0.5" On Last Night`s Upper Air Runs.

&&

.short Term (today Through Tonight)...axis Of Highly Amplified Upper
Trough Will Move East Of The Forecast Area This Afternoon. Dry Cold
Air Advection In The Post-frontal Environment Will Continue To
Dissolve The Thin Broken Stratus Deck This Morning...but Most Clouds
Will Not Clear The Area Until This Afternoon. The Cooler Air And
Restricted Insolation Will Only Allow Todays High Temperatures To
Reach Into The Upper 40s To Lower 50s. The Combination Of Clear
Skies Overnight And Winds Dropping Below 5 Mph Will Bring A Chilly
Night To The Area As Temperatures Drop Below Freezing. High Pressure
Will Be Centered Over The Forecast Area By Daybreak...with Lows
Reaching The Upper 20s To Lower 30s Most Locations...except For The
Mid 30s Along The Immediate Coast. /22

.long Term (wednesday Through Tuesday)...wednesday Starts Out With
Surface High Pressure Over The Fa...an Upper System Moving Onshore
Over The Western Seaboard...and The Current System Off The Eastern
Seaboard. The West Coast System Organizes As It Heads Southeast Over
The Desert Southwest. Current Guidance Has A Surface Low Forming Over
The Nm/tx State Line Wednesday Night. As The System Starts Over The
Southern Plains...guidance Shows The System Starting To
Occlude...pushing A Surface Front Across The Area Friday Night. Have
Some Concern With This System...in That...even Though The Main Upper
Dynamics Are North Of The Area...it Looks At This Time That The
Squall Line Which Will Pass Through Friday Night Could Be A Problem.
Due To The Timing/path Issues So Prevalent This Time Of The Year...am
Not Going To Cry Wolf And Raise The Flags Of Danger...but Will Need
To Keep An Eye On This System.

After The System Passes...a Drier Airmass Moves In...limiting Any
Wrap-around Precip As The Upper Dynamics Head Northeast
Through The Weekend From Over The Central Plains To The Eastern Great
Lakes By Monday Night.

ROLLTIDE

12-27-2006, 08:40 AM

Afdmob

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
339 Am Cst Wed Dec 27 2006

.synopsis...for The Current Forecast...biggest Detail To Deal With Is
The Coming Rainfall This Weekend. First Things First...taking A Look
At The Upper Air Maps And Water Vapor Imagery...past Weekends System
Is Passing Over The East Coast...while The Coming Even Is Moving Over
The West. Dry Airmass Is In Evidence Centered Over The Miss River
Valley (according To The Goes Sounder And Last Evening`s
Soundings)...but The Water Vapor Imagery Shows Abundant Mid/upper
Level Moisture Over Most Over The Conus. Looking At The Latest
Surface Analysis...high Pressure Stretched North Over The Miss River
Valley From The Western Gulf.

&&

.short Term (today Through Tonight)...return Flow Will Set Up This
Afternoon And Tonight As Center Of Surface High Pressure Across The
Area Moves East- Northeast Into The Mid Atlantic Region By Midnight.
Cool Dry Air In Place Across The Forecast Area Will Remain Through
Midnight...followed By Low Status Clouds Moving Into Portions Of
Southeast Mississippi And Southwest Alabama After Midnight. The Cloud
Cover Yesterday Took Longer To Clear The Forecast Area Than The
Models Indicated...and Most Areas East Of The Tombigbee River Never
Saw A Glimpse Of Sunshine. I Apologize For That As The High
Temperatures Were About 3 Degrees Cooler Than Forecast...even Though
I Went With The Cooler Mav Guidance. Today However Everyone Will See
Plenty Of Sunshine...which Is More Than Welcome During These Shortest
Days Of The Year (only About 10 Hours Of Daylight). Mav And Met
Temperatures Are Much More In Line...so There Will Be Little If Any
Departure. /22

.long Term (thursday Through Wednesday)...by Thursday Morn...with The
West Coast System Closed Off An Sitting Over The Az/nm Border...low
Level Flow Has Tightened Up Quite Nicely Over The Plains To The
Southeastern Conus...east Of The Surface Low Over The Tx/nm State
Line. Through The Rest Of The Week And Weekend...this System Will
Continue East (into Friday)...then Northeast As Upper Ridge Builds
Over The Eastern Seaboard. Guidance Is Advertising A Vort Lobe
Swinging Around The Base Of The Upper System As It Moves Slowly Over
The Southern Plains Friday Through Saturday. Guidance Is Advertising
Some Spread In The Speed Of This System As It Wobbles
Northeast...with The 00z Ensemble Mean The Fastest (though The Gfs
Is Hot On Its Heels)...with The Nam A Bit Behind And The Ukmet And
Ecmwf Significantly Slower.

Guidance Has Slowed Down With This System...with The First Vort Lobe
Pushing A Front Across The Area Now Saturday (according To The Gfs.
Ensemble Mean Has The Front Crossing The Fa Saturday Afternoon And
Evening (closer To The Slower Ukmet/ecmwf). Guidance Still
Advertising A Pretty Good Line Crossing The Area...this Time During
The Day When Instability Is The Best. Have Slowed Thing Down To The
Slower 00z/27 Gfs...but As Much As The Other Models

ROLLTIDE

01-01-2007, 07:24 AM

We Continue To Put A Dent In The Large Rainfall Deficit From The First
Part Of 2006...which Ended As The 16th Driest Year On Record In
Mobile (49.35 Inches...16.94 Inches Below Normal). Pensacola
Recorded The 20th Driest Year On Record (45.26 Inches...19.02 Inches
Below Normal). /13

ROLLTIDE

01-02-2007, 08:37 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
435 Am Cst Tue Jan 2 2007

.short Term (today And Tonight)...high Pressure Across The Central
Plains Will Continue To Slide Eastward Across The Tennessee Valley
Today. The Resulting North To Northeast Wind Flow Will Continue To
Advect A Cool...dry Airmass Into The Area. Thus Temperatures Today
Will Run From The Upper 50s To Near 60 Under Mostly Clear Skies.
Tonight Lows Will Again Fall Into The Low To Mid 30s Inland To Low
40s Along The Coast. /13

.long Term (wednesday Through Next Tuesday)...the Gfs Has Shown
Fairly Good Run To Run Consistency On The Sfc Low Forming Up Off The
Texas Coast Wednesday Night And Lifting Northeastward Across
Mississippi Through Thursday Night. The Latest Run Of The Gfs Is In
Excellent Agreement With The Latest Ecmwf And The Gem
Forecasts...and We See No Reason To Go With The Much Slower Nam
Which Typically (when The Lone Outlier) Is A Poor Bet.
Therefore...we Continue Bringing A Warm Front Onshore Thursday With
Likely Pops West And Chance Pops East. For Thursday Night We Went
80 Pops Area-wide With The Trailing Front South Of The Low (passing
To The Northwest) Moving Slowly Eastward Across Our Area. The Upper
Low Moves Into Alabama By 12z Fri And A Dry-slot Will Move Across
The Western 2/3rds Of The Forecast Area Friday Morning. The 00z
Gfs/ecmwf And Gem All Have This Dry-slot Working Across Our Area
Early Friday. We Keep Friday Night Dry With The Front Stalling
Offshore As The Upper System Lifts Quickly Out To The Northeast.

As For The Severe Weather Potential Thursday Through Early
Friday...we Note The Gfs Still Shows A Narrow Band Of Higher 850 Mb
Winds (40-50 Kts) Passing Eastward Across Our Area Just Ahead Of The
Main Band Of Convection Thursday Evening. The Surface Winds Across
Much Of Our Forecast Area Are Not Backed Enough To Get Overly
Concerned For Organized Supercell Storms...but We Still See A 50 Kt
Low Level Jet Passing Just North Of The Coast That Could Result In A
Few Isolated Severe Storms With Bowing Segments/localized Downburst
Winds Along Or Just Ahead Of The Main Line Of Storms Thursday
Evening. The Main Inhibiting Factor Could Again Be A Lack Of Deep
Layered Instability For Stronger Convection. For Now We Will
Continue To Acknowledge A Slight Risk Of Severe Storms Late Thursday
Along And Just Ahead Of The Squall Line And Fine Tune The Forecast
The Closer We Get.

By Saturday...the Global Models Are In Fair Agreement Digging
Another Upper Trough Slowly Eastward Across The Desert Southwest And
Northern Mexico On Saturday...and The Gfs And The Ecmwf Are Fairly
Robust In Bringing A Deep Layer Of Return Moisture Northward Across
The Deep South Starting On Saturday With A Weak Surface Low Forming
Up Along The Central Gulf Coast. This Is Is Fair Agreement With The
Previous 12z Gfs Package And We Will Keep Chance Pops West And
Slight Chance Pops East For Saturday...transitioning To Chance Pops
Everywhere Late Saturday Through Early Monday As The Surface
Trof/front Makes Slow Progress Eastward Across The Forecast Area.
The Latest Gfs Stalls The Front Up Across Our Eastern Zones Monday
Into Tuesday...whereas The 00z Ecmwf Still Pushes The Front East Of
Our Area (similar To The Previous 12z Gfs). For Now We Will
Low-ball The Pops For Day 8 (tuesday) And See If The Gfs Pattern
Holds. /05