View Full Version : news futures hurricane contract is up !!!!
01-29-2005, 08:01 AM
Will there will be more than 13 named Atlantic storms in 2005 ?
02-20-2005, 06:35 PM
2005 HURICANE GUESS
“Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that weak warm episode (El Nino) conditions will gradually weaken during the next three months and that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the last half of 2005”
1995 and 2004 were ESNO neutral years and the tropical storm count were 19 and 18 respectively. 1996 was a lead in year for the 1997 El Nino and the storm count was 13 in 1996 finger counting would put an El Nino in 2006. The fact that "El Nino like" conditions are currently occurring in California seems to indicate a moderating of the North Atlantic Tropical Storm Count being that 1997 an El Nino year there was only 8 North Atlantic tropical storms.
The number of tropical storms during August and September will be the kicker. Either way the average number of storms per year over the last ten years is 14.2 so, I will have putting X’s on more than 13 storms this year.
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