Febuary Outlook

[Jason234]

Looks like another cold month on tap for the northeast part of the country. Long range guidance from the NWS is indicating that the southeast is the warmest which i find rather odd, based on the longrange modeling. The GFS has snow superbowl sunday for Jacksonville. (Check it out). If that's not cold then i don't know what is. Around the 10th seems to be the pattern change time for the east coast give or take a few days. Within the time period from the 10th to the 26th crank up the snowblowers, and bundle up because it's going to be one nasty ride. At least i think so. This time the whole month will be cold, and could break some records in precip. if the northern branch phases with the southern branch-which seems very likely in the near future. So temp anomalies will be 4 below normal in the southeast, from Mobile to West Palm Beach-all the way up to say NC,VA-then the three line will be up throughout the whole NE all the way over to Pittsburg. As you go further at west, the 2 line will run from Chicago to Kansas City, and then the 1 below normal line will run from east Kansas to Denver. After that temps west of the Rockies will run 4-5 degree's above normal. Classic winter pattern seems to be setting up with the Negative NAO and the blocking moving backwards in the means. Some models indicate the height falls in Canada press into the east at the end of their forecast period as the blocking closes in, that would be something.

[LI Phil]

I think Keith has done some excellent research and has presented us with a very good pattern overview for February. I will have some additional thoughts to add to this discussion at a later time, but I am quite fearful of a big big noreaster setting up sometime in the Feb. 9-12 period. The 1969 analog that several forecasters are pointing to is my main reason for this. FWIW, my soon to be ex- was born on Feb. 11, 1969 (same day as Jennifer Aniston, BTW), and her father used to regale me of many stories of how he had to shovel EXIT ramps just to get him and her mom to the hospital for delivery...here's how accuwx feels February will shape up for the country...notice the above average precip. for the northeast, below average temps, and the overall stormy pattern, further adding to my belief of a biggun hitting my area.

[Jason234]

thankyou. All this transitonal stuff really messes up my idea's.