01-31-2005, 08:04 PM
Very rare weather pattern taking shape over the tri-state area. We have a block over greenland, that is in a retrogressive pattern (moving backwards in the means) and the storm that gave people ice in the deep south. What the consenus between models is to take a piece of the desert SW energy blow it up off the east coast and phase it with the occluded storm. Some models take the northern branch and feed it into the storm. What I think will happen is that the southern stream energy will ride up much further south then progged, a natural bias because of the underestimation of the strength of the ridging, phase with the occluded low and then the low travels to the OB area where it then rides north-bound in the embedded flow...by the time it get's to our area a shortwave is diving down. It mingles with the Canadian shortwave and produces bands of light to moderate snow throughout the tri-state area. That's how it looks now, tis' an extermely hard forecast.