Next Thursday Storm for the Northeast?

[Jason234]

The UKMET has seen the idea that a wave will develop on the arctic front, and trek northeastward. The GFS is now starting to loss my support. It keeps on thinking one branch will be dominant which is not the case. With the negative SOI signal the southern branch will be more active, but the northern branch will not necessarily be gone from the picture, it is highly likely that will be seeing some phasing occurring for 2 big storms. It is a winter of big swings and this is very apparent. I feel a storm will form on the wave, where the track of the cold front was the farthest south..which will probably be somewhere in southern Indiana. It will ride along the arctic boundary and light snows will fall in it's wake- where is out of the question. I'm hoping to redeem myself from my last busted forecast.

[Jason234]

UKMET is still strong on the idea about the thursday event and the NOGAPS is showing "in your face cold." By Friday it's forecasting the heights at 500 mb to be in the 520 range....damm!! I have to give props to the Canadian model for figuring this out such a long time ago, kudos! The Euro is concurrent with this idea too-looks even colder actually. Even the GFS has the idea that it will be cold, but then loses it-as it feels that the cold air will simply erode. The NOGAPS has 14 degree's progged for Sat as a high... Euro would be colder if I could figure out the formula for height's to surface temp.

[LI Phil]

We're definitely seeing a pattern change for the whole US, and I think we'll see a return to much colder temps for the eastern US from the 15th thru the end of the month. I don't see Keith's storm developing on Thursday, but rather I think the period Feb. 22-25 is ripe for a major east coast storm...Another "President's Day" storm, while off by a day or two, is definitely in the cards. Till then, tho, I don't see anything major affecting the northeast. Unless of course we have a full moon which causes massive mag 7 earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes...then we're all up shit's creek without paddles.