View Full Version : 2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved
HarvestMoon
12-28-2008, 04:38 PM
2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved
Looking back over my columns of the past 12 months, one of their major themes was neatly encapsulated by two recent items from The Daily Telegraph.
By Christopher Booker
Last Updated: 10:59AM GMT 28 Dec 2008
The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".
Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.
First, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/3982101/2008-was-the-year-man-made-global-warming-was-disproved.html
Daniel294
12-28-2008, 05:53 PM
What a load of bunk. This is just as conceited as saying that it has been proved. There is no real scientific evidence in this article at all.
But go ahead, believe what gives you a sense of security.
kobayashi
12-29-2008, 08:22 PM
Northeast Siberia braces for extreme cold of -60C (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/15/northeast-siberia-braces-for-extreme-cold-of-60c/)
15 12 2008
Can you imagine going out to this Stevenson Screen in Verkhojansk (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/18/update-on-the-verhojansk-russia-meteo-station-and-data/) and taking a reading in - 60C cold? Let’s count our blessing here in the USA and Canada that we don’t have to deal with these kinds of temperatures, yet.
http://www.yakutiatravel.com/eng/travdir/img/PoleVerh/Meteoobserve.jpg (http://www.yakutiatravel.com/eng/travdir/img/PoleVerh/Meteoobserve.jpg)
Stevenson Screen at Verhojansk Meteo Station looking ENE
www.rian.ru
http://img.rian.ru/i/logo_print_eng.gif
Northeast Siberia braces for extreme cold of -60C
15/12/2008 12:45 YAKUTSK, December 15 (RIA Novosti) - Temperatures in the northeast Siberian republic of Yakutia could fall to minus 60 degrees Celsius (minus 76 degrees Fahrenheit) in the next few days, the local meteorological service said Monday.
With average low temperatures in Yakutia (http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20070105/57829653.html) dropping below minus 40 degrees Celsius (minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit) overnight, weather in the town of Verkhoyansk dropped overnight to minus 53 degrees Celsius (minus 63.4 degrees Fahrenheit), while in Oymyakon it reached minus 57 degrees Celsius (minus 70.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
“However, this is not the limit - in the next few days weather in the town of Krestyakh could drop below minus 58 degrees Celsius (minus 72.4 degrees Fahrenheit),” the meteorological service spokesman said.
The spokesman added that the current spell of extremely cold weather was due to an influx of cold polar air masses.
Yakutia has two places that contest the honor of being named the North Pole of cold, or the place where the lowest-ever temperature in the Northern hemisphere was recorded - Verkhoyansk with a record of minus 67.8 degrees Celsius (minus 90 degrees Fahrenheit) and Oymyakon with a minimum of minus 67.7 degrees Celsius (minus 89.9 degrees Fahrenheit).
Daniel294
12-29-2008, 08:27 PM
That still doesn't disprove anything. Global warming and global cooling are long term trends. Certainly, over the past 150 years, the trend has been warming, and one year of cold doesn't prove anything.
kobayashi
12-29-2008, 08:59 PM
Somehow I don't think it's coincidental - that we're coming up on the 400th anniversary of Galileo going against "The Scientific Consensus" - no I haven't recited my catechism today. Sorry, I shouldn't make fun of religious practices. Last time there were so few sunspots was in the nineteenth century.
Galileo affair
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_affair#column-one), search (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_affair#searchInput)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bd/Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg/350px-Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg) [/URL]
Galileo before the Holy Office, a 19th century painting by [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph-Nicolas_Robert-Fleury"]Joseph-Nicolas Robert-Fleury (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg)
The Galileo affair, in which Galileo Galilei (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei) came into conflict with the Catholic Church (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church) over his support of Copernican astronomy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliocentrism), is often considered a defining moment in the history of the relationship between religion and science (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_between_religion_and_science).[citation needed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)]
In 1610, Galileo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei) published his Sidereus Nuncius (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidereus_Nuncius) (Starry Messenger), describing the surprising observations that he had made with the new telescope (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telescope). These and other discoveries exposed major difficulties with the understanding of the heavens that had been held since antiquity, and raised new interest in radical teachings such as the heliocentric (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliocentrism) theory of Copernicus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus).
In reaction, many scholars attacked the theory because it seemingly contradicted several passages of Scripture (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bible). Galileo's part in the controversies over theology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theology), astronomy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomy), and philosophy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy) culminated in his trial and sentencing in 1633 on a grave suspicion of heresy.
Daniel294
12-29-2008, 09:13 PM
Somehow I don't think it's coincidental - that we're coming up on the 400th anniversary of Galileo going against "The Scientific Consensus" - no I haven't recited my catechism today. Sorry, I shouldn't make fun of religious practices. Last time there were so few sunspots was in the nineteenth century.
Galileo affair
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_affair#column-one), search (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_affair#searchInput)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bd/Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg/350px-Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg) [/URL]
Galileo before the Holy Office, a 19th century painting by [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph-Nicolas_Robert-Fleury"]Joseph-Nicolas Robert-Fleury (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Galileo_before_the_Holy_Office.jpg)
The Galileo affair, in which Galileo Galilei (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei) came into conflict with the Catholic Church (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church) over his support of Copernican astronomy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliocentrism), is often considered a defining moment in the history of the relationship between religion and science (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_between_religion_and_science).[citation needed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)]
In 1610, Galileo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei) published his Sidereus Nuncius (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidereus_Nuncius) (Starry Messenger), describing the surprising observations that he had made with the new telescope (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telescope). These and other discoveries exposed major difficulties with the understanding of the heavens that had been held since antiquity, and raised new interest in radical teachings such as the heliocentric (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliocentrism) theory of Copernicus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus).
In reaction, many scholars attacked the theory because it seemingly contradicted several passages of Scripture (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bible). Galileo's part in the controversies over theology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theology), astronomy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomy), and philosophy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy) culminated in his trial and sentencing in 1633 on a grave suspicion of heresy.Sunspots are a sinusoidal cycle. We're at the minimum. They'll be up next year.
satx_pilot
12-29-2008, 09:46 PM
We're at the minimum.
We saw a single reversed polarity high latitude sunspot on January 4th, 2008, which would signal the start of a new cycle 24, which was originally predicted to have started last March and expected to peak in 2012. So far the sun doesn’t seem to have restarted its normal upwards climb. http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/solar-geomagnetic-ap.png
We are past the minimum.
With that being said, I am not 100% onboard with saying it is responsible for large shifts in weather. There are too many other factors at play.
Lastly, Global warming/ Global Cooling. CO2 has been the focus of global warming. Scientist need to quit chasing the white rabbit and should focus on the the 800 Pound gorilla in the room. Methane Gas
Methane is 21 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. While atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen by about 31% since pre-industrial times, methane concentrations have more than doubled.
The amount of Methane produced by livestock, decaying plant life/ landfills and methane bubbling out of the ocean floor dwarfs the impact of man made CO2 released each year.
HarvestMoon
12-29-2008, 10:54 PM
Lastly, Global warming/ Global Cooling. CO2 has been the focus of global warming. Scientist need to quit chasing the white rabbit and should focus on the the 800 Pound gorilla in the room. Methane Gas
The amount of Methane produced by livestock, decaying plant life/ landfills and methane bubbling out of the ocean floor dwarfs the impact of man made CO2 released each year.
/saywhat :eek: Don't mess with /licklips BBQ.
/cursing :flammer: /censor #d /argue :mad:
/cheers
satx_pilot
12-30-2008, 12:32 AM
/saywhat :eek: Don't mess with /licklips BBQ.
/cursing :flammer: /censor #d /argue :mad:
/cheers
Methane HarvestMoon!!!! Not Propane! cool2
I prefer Mesquite or Pecan for BBQ /bgsmile
Methane combustion is VERY efficient, VERY abundant and much cleaner than gasoline or other natural gases (although it does produce CO2 as well.) There are a few companies using the methane from landfills to generate electricity.
HarvestMoon
12-30-2008, 04:22 PM
Hey, I smoke with pecan also. A little hickory sometimes.
I talking about the possible tax on livestock because of the methane byproduct (cow & pig farts & dung). /woot
Methane HarvestMoon!!!! Not Propane! cool2
I prefer Mesquite or Pecan for BBQ /bgsmile
Methane combustion is VERY efficient, VERY abundant and much cleaner than gasoline or other natural gases (although it does produce CO2 as well.) There are a few companies using the methane from landfills to generate electricity.
Katfive
12-30-2008, 04:29 PM
Hey, I smoke with pecan also. A little hickory sometimes.
I talking about the possible tax on livestock because of the methane byproduct (cow & pig farts & dung). /woot
It would be kind of ironic if we could cook a cows rump with fuel that came out of it!
kobayashi
01-17-2009, 10:14 AM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/SSN_Predict_NASA.gif (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/SSN_Predict_NASA.gif)
Size of this preview: 800 × 512 pixels
kobayashi
01-20-2009, 04:45 AM
What the Solar Cycle 24 ramp up could look like (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/19/what-the-solar-cycle-24-ramp-up-could-look-like/)
19 01 2009
Guest post by David Archibald
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http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/solar-cycle-24.png?w=520&h=319 (http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/solar-cycle-24.png)
With respect to the month of minimum, it is very likely that Solar Cycle 24 has started simply because Solar Cycle 23 has run out. Most solar cycles stop producing spots at about nineteen years after solar maximum of the previous cycle. Solar Cycle 23 had its genesis with the magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 22 maximum. As the graph above shows, Solar Cycle 23 is now 19 years old. Only 9% of the named solar cycles produced spots after this.
The graph also shows the position of Solar Cycle 24 relative to its month of genesis. Solar Cycle 24 is now the second latest of the 24 named solar cycles. January is 105 months after the Solar Cycle 23 maximum. Only Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, is later. This lateness points to Solar Cycle 24 being very weak.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/solar-cycles-with-3.png?w=520&h=281 (http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/solar-cycles-with-3.png)
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This graph shows the initial ramp ups of six solar cycles that were preceded by a vey low minimum. The ultimate trajectory of Solar Cycle 24 should be apparent by late 2009. If Solar Cycle 24 is going to be as weak as expected, the monthly sunspot number should remain under 10 by the end of 2009.
kobayashi
01-25-2009, 06:17 AM
Sunspots are a sinusoidal cycle. We're at the minimum. They'll be up next year.
Any 8th grader knows "Sine Waves" but any 6th grader or Ham knows "Harmonics"
David Archibald remapped the "Sine Waves" of the historical Solar Cycles with this graph - which points out that in terms of 'pattern recognition' Solar Cycle 24 is looking more like Solar Cycle 5, AKA the first half of "The Dalton Minimum"
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/solar-cycle-24.png?w=520&h=319 (http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/solar-cycle-24.png)
The "Dalton Minimum" was 1790 to 1830, not as cold as "The Little Ice Age"
kobayashi
03-08-2009, 12:28 PM
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/08/more-revisions-to-the-nasa-solar-cycle-prediction/
More revisions to the NASA solar cycle prediction (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/08/more-revisions-to-the-nasa-solar-cycle-prediction/)
8 03 2009
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/ssn_predict_anim_nasa.gif?w=500&h=320 (http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/ssn_predict_anim_nasa.gif)
Above: step by step animation of solar cycle revisions since 2004
Michael Roynane writes:
On March 4, 2009 Dr. David Hathaway issued a new sunspot prediction for March 2009 which includes sunspot data through the end of February 2009. After no changes in the February 2009 prediction, solar maximum for Solar Cycle 24 was pushed back an additional three (3) months from 2012/10-2012/11 to 2013/01-2013/02. The predicted sunspot number at solar maximum was reduced from 104.9 to 104.0. Read the rest of this entry » (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/08/more-revisions-to-the-nasa-solar-cycle-prediction/#more-6087)
kobayashi
10-26-2009, 10:01 PM
“Maybe the sun really means business this time!” (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/26/maybe-the-sun-really-means-business-this-time/)
26 10 2009
After months of malaise and anemic sunspecks, the sun finally creates a respectable spot.While lower towards the equator than expected, it has been identified as a cycle 24 spot.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/soho_latest.jpg?w=512&h=512 (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html) The sun today, showing region 1029 - click for very large image
From SpaceWeather.com: The sun is showing signs of life. Over the weekend, sunspot 1029 emerged and it is crackling with B- and C-class (http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html?PHPSESSID=rb0roc8luc4mevvgrt3g7q jfi2) solar flares. Amateur astronomer Gianluca Valentini of Rimini, Italy, took this picture just hours ago:
Read the rest of this entry » (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/26/maybe-the-sun-really-means-business-this-time/#more-12155)
kobayashi
12-08-2009, 08:11 PM
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/08/more-revisions-to-the-nasa-solar-cycle-prediction/
More revisions to the NASA solar cycle prediction (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/08/more-revisions-to-the-nasa-solar-cycle-prediction/)
8 03 2009
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/ssn_predict_anim_nasa.gif?w=500&h=320 (http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/ssn_predict_anim_nasa.gif)
Above: step by step animation of solar cycle revisions since 2004
Michael Roynane writes:
On March 4, 2009 Dr. David Hathaway issued a new sunspot prediction for March 2009 which includes sunspot data through the end of February 2009. After no changes in the February 2009 prediction, solar maximum for Solar Cycle 24 was pushed back an additional three (3) months from 2012/10-2012/11 to 2013/01-2013/02. The predicted sunspot number at solar maximum was reduced from 104.9 to 104.0. Read the rest of this entry » (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/08/more-revisions-to-the-nasa-solar-cycle-prediction/#more-6087)
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/solar_cycle24_prediction.jpg
http://www.resilientearth.com/?q=content/little-ice-age-ii-sequel
Little Ice Age II, The Sequel?
Submitted by Doug L. Hoffman on Tue, 06/09/2009 - 16:38
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/global-cooling-thumb.jpg (http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/global-cooling.jpg)
The lingering cool temperatures being experience by much of North America has weather forecasters wondering if we are entering a new Little Ice Age—a reference to the prolonged period of cold weather that afflicted the world for centuries and didn't end until just prior to the American Civil War. From historical records, scientists have found a strong correlation between low sunspot activity and a cooling climate. At the end of May, an international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA released a new prediction for the next solar cycle: Solar Cycle 24 will be one of the weakest in recent memory. Are we about to start a new Little Ice Age?
According to the report (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm), Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a sunspot count well below average. “If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. This does not mean that we won't feel the results of renewed solar storm activity here on Earth.
“Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.” A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm similar to the 1859 disturbance—known as the “Carrington Event” after astronomer Richard Carrington who observed the associated solar flare—occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. Reportedly, the 1859 storm electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their glow.
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/solar_cycle24_prediction.jpg
As we reported in Chapter 10 (http://theresilientearth.com/files/pdfs/the_resilient_earth-chapter_10.pdf) of The Resilient Earth (http://www.amazon.com/Resilient-Earth-Science-Warming-Humanity/dp/143921154X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226082886&sr=1-1), the most interesting feature of sunspots is that their number increases and decreases in a regular rhythm over about a decade. This regular cycle was first noticed by the German astronomer Samuel Heinrich Schwabe in 1843. This has become known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, or sunspot cycle. The number of sunspots in each cycle is not constant; there have been periods where many sunspots were observed, and others when sunspots seem to disappear altogether. Sightings from China, Korea and Japan between 28 BC and 1743 AD averaged only six sunspots per year. None were observed between 1639 and 1700, a period know as the Maunder Minimum.
The period from roughly 1300 to 1850 is known as the “Little Ice Age,” a period characterized by unusually long and cold winters. Some confine the Little Ice Age to approximately the 16th century to the mid 19th century, but it is generally agreed that there were three temperature minima, occurring around 1650, 1770, and 1850. Each minima separated by slight warming intervals. These periods coincides closely with times of solar inactivity, with some of the worst weather occurring squarely during the Maunder Minimum.
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/sunspot_numbers_400yr-500.jpg (http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/sunspot_numbers_400yr.png)
The Maunder Minimum is named after the English astronomer Edward W. Maunder (1851-1928). From studying historical records of sunspot counts, called the sunspot number, Maunder discovered that sunspots were virtually absent during this period, and disappeared altogether during the decade starting in 1670. Astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots during the 70 year period from 1645 to 1715. Normal sunspot activity would have produced 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots.
Already in the midst of the Little Ice Age's colder than average climate, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland, sea ice crept south from the Arctic, and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today. In London, ice festivals were held on the frozen Themes and in New York City people could walk to Manhattan and Staten Island on the ice. On the down side, crops failed and many died of the cold.
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/themes_ice_skating.jpg
In 1991, a pair of Danish meteorologists published a paper in which they pointed out a remarkably strong correlation between the length of the solar activity cycle and the global mean temperature in the northern hemisphere. Not all activity cycles are the same length, with longer cycles of 12-14 years duration seeming to indicate cooler global temperatures than shorter 9-10 year cycles. It is difficult to assess the effect of recent solar cycles on global climate, let alone those from the Maunder minimum, because of the relatively short time span for which detailed observations exist. Climate data for the past 100 years are spotty enough, climate records become sparse to nonexistent when looking back more than a century.
The correlation between temperature and sunspot activity has been commented on before on this site (see “Scientists Discover The Sun Does Affect Earth's Climate (http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/scientists-discover-sun-does-affect-earths-climate)”), so I will not go into great detail about it here. However, it is interesting to note that a comparison of sea surface temperature and the number of observed sunspots over the past 150 years or so yeilds an astoundingly close match—much closer than the correlation between CO2 and temperature.
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/sea_temperature_vs_sunspots-500.jpg (http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/sea_temperature_vs_sunspots.jpg)
Scientists are not sure how solar activity and space weather are linked to climate here on Earth. They do know that the last time sunspots all but disappeared for an extended period of time our planet experienced a dramatic downswing in temperature. Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley—the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set modern records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance.
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/earth_magnetosphere.jpg
There are variations in the 11 year cycle and other cycles of longer duration also seem to be at work here. Naturally, scientists have tried to predict the changing activity of the sun by examining the historical records and, more recently, using computer models. This is not to say that the predictions are always correct, no one correctly predicted the current ebb in solar activity. “In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it,” said Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Cente. “Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007.”
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/SOHO_cycle24-250.jpg (http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/SOHO_cycle24.jpg)
“It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," admited Pesnell, NASA's lead representative on the prediction panel. “The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way.” Though the face of the sun is not as blemish free as it was a few months ago, the latest images from SOHO show sunspot activity is picking up a bit. But the current level of activity is still quite low. In fact, the sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare. What does this portend for the weather here on planet Earth?
According to expert long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” This is a reference to the year 1816, also known as the Poverty Year, during which severe and abnormally cold summer weather destroyed crops in Northern Europe, the American Northeast and eastern Canada. According to Bastardi (http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&article=9) the jet stream is displaced abnormally southward this spring, which is suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form. The ones that do form in areas of the Ohio Valley and West are forming in places with very cold temperatures, which can lead to thunderstorms more electrically active than normal.
http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/snowpalm-250.jpg (http://www.resilientearth.com/files/images/snowpalm.jpg)
Despite claims by global warming activists that rising temperatures are extending growing seasons around the world, the opposite seems to be happening this year. Cool weather has pushed growth of Western Canada's wheat and barley crop at least 10 days behind schedule, according to the Canadian Wheat Board (http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE55749420090608). “You're pushing development into a period with better likelihood of getting a frost,” said Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the Canadian Wheat Board. “It's not particularly what we need at this moment. It's just too cool.”
Proving that this isn't only a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon, Brazil may cut this year’s corn output forecast for a third consecutive time, as a frost in several states caused more crop damage. According to Silvio Porto (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ahnIng.aPqlQ&refer=latin_america), agriculture policy director, corn growers may harvest less than the 49.9 million metric tons forecast previously announced as frost struck Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states in the past two weeks. “It’s a worrying situation as corn has already suffered with a severe drought,” Porto said. “Still, it’s too early to know the size of the damage.”
New record cold temperatures have been seen in a number of locations around the world, marking this as one of the coldest springs in years. With reports of late season frost and snow falls, some are already forecasting a very cool summer. Not trying to sound alarmist or start any rumors but scientists' best conjecture regarding the conditions that signal the start of a new glacial period are cool, cloudy summers. Is this the beginning of Little Ice Age II, the sequel? If so, we will look back fondly on the time we were all so concerned about global warming. Remember, in the words of SF author Orson Scott Card (http://www.hatrack.com/), “'global warming' is just another term for 'good weather.'”
Be safe, enjoy the interglacial and stay skeptical.
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