Northern AL Wx

[MadALwx]

Just going to post sig wx events here.

[MadALwx]

Wind spd - 43mph at 1138a. New station record.

Aside from the wind, only had 2 close strikes, no thunder, .23'' rain.

[ROLLTIDE]

Did you get any snow the other day ?

[MadALwx]

A bit late. 1Mar09
http://www.knology.net/~blackjack52/images/1marsnow.jpg

Juggling too many things.

[ROLLTIDE]

Thanks for posting the pics

[ROLLTIDE]

Much flooding ?

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 211724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS HANGING ON AT BOTH TERMINALS AT MIDDAY. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT IN GENERAL WILL KEEP MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROB OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AFFECTING KMSL IS DROPPING...
SO WILL CARRY JUST VCSH THIS AFTERNOON THERE...WHILE RETAINING THE
TEMPO TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AT KHSV DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AGAIN...SO WILL TEMPO -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND MAKE THEM PREVAILING IN THE MORNING HOURS.
COULD SEE THEM TAPERING OFF NEAR THE END OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PERIOD.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...MORE RAIN...MORE FLOODING. RECEIVED FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) REPORTS FROM
THE VALLEY HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD)/MENTONE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVER IN
VALLEY HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) REPORTED 7.21 INCHES OF RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...WHICH RANKS IN THE
TOP FIVE WETTEST DAYS EVER RECORDED THERE...BUT ONLY THE WETTEST
SINGLE DAY SINCE HURRICANE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HURRICANE) IVAN IN 2004. BIG WILLS CREEK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CREEK) IS SOURCED
IN VALLEY HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD)...SO THAT LEFT THE CREEK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CREEK) SWOLLEN...AND IT NOW SHOULD
BE CRESTING IN THE FORT PAYNE AREA. MEANWHILE...AT THE MOMENT...MOST
OF THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SLOWLY EDGING
BACK NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE A CHANGE TO THE POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FORECAST
TO GO WITH A LOWER RAIN CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER (WHICH I AM
SURE THEY WILL WELCOME A BREAK IF THEY CAN GET ONE)... AND CLOSE TO
100 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

PRIME AREA FOR FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING TODAY APPEARS TO BE JACKSON/DEKALB
COUNTIES (AND PERHAPS CULLMAN/MARSHALL)...AND WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. THE FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) STILL
REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TEMPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS...LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK...AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WAS
PUMPING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)/INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) INTO THE TN VALLEY ON SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). ALSO
ARND (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ARND) THIS UPPER LOW ARE SEVERAL S/W THAT WILL KEEP THE CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OF
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE HARD TO TIME THESE
WAVES OF PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) BUT BASED ON RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM)...A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) THIS MRNG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MRNG)/AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). EXPECT PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) TO
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WILL KEEP VCSH IN BOTH
TAFS BEGINNING AT 02Z TONIGHT. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THRU THE ENTIRE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) FOR BOTH SITES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY WET WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL)
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COUPLED WITH MORE RAIN XPCTED TODAY WARRANTS EXTENDING THE
FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION IS UNDERGOING SOME CHANGE AS IT TRANSITIONS MORE INTO
A SWLY FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) PATTERN ALOFT...THEREBY ALLOWING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW TO THE NE. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...THX IN PART TO A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC BASIN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BASIN)...THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED BY CURRENT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AND RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR)
TRENDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) MS/AL
AND THEN PUSHING OFF TOWARD THE NE INTO NRN GA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THIS SAID THUS FAR...AND IT`S PROBABLY A
STRETCH...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS DO NOT HOLD THIS PATTERN OVER
THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...AS A TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) PATTERN BEGINS
TO DIG ALONG THE ROCKIES. THE BAD NEWS THOUGH CLOSER TO HOME IS THAT
THE SWLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PATTERN LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A PERSISTENT STREAM OF IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TRANSLATING INTO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS.

LOOKING PAST MID WEEK THOUGH MAY FINALLY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES LIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN GETTING PHASED INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE NE STATES. AS THIS UNFOLDS...THE UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
PATTERN OVER THE SE LOOKS TO FLATTEN IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) PATTERN
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AT THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
COMING WEEKEND. PRIOR TO THIS...THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) WAS ALREADY HINTING AT THE
UPPER FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) PATTERN OVER THE AREA WEAKENING WITH SOME REPRIEVE IN THE
NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND LIKEWISE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). IF THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)/SUN...THERE MAY BE A GOOD
BET THEN FOR SOME FALL LIKE WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) FINALLY RETURNING TO THE TN VALLEY.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARS HALL...
MORGAN.

TN...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...JE/23
PREV DISCUSSION...09

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 221428 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.MESOSCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE) UPDATE...TO RAISE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) IN NWRN AL.
SEVERAL BANDS OF +SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) AND A FEW TS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TS) CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NEWD) ACROSS
NWRN AL. THESE SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) ARE WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF STREAMLINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STREAMLINE)
CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) NOTED IN THE 12Z SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)/8H ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.8-1.9 INCH PWS SUGGESTIVE OF AMPLE
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) POTENTIAL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTFLOW%20BOUNDARY) FROM PREVIOUS SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL%20LINE)
OVERNIGHT HAS SPARKED NEW QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL AND
NERN MS. AREAL COVERAGE PROMPTS ME TO RAISE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) INTO CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL)
RANGE IN NWRN AL.
&&

.AVIATION.../NO CHANGES/...
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW OVER WRN IL WITH CDFNT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CDFNT) THRU CENTRAL MO AND INTO ERN OK.
UPPER LOW STILL OVER WRN KS/NB WHICH PUTS THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) IN SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW).
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) NOW OVER WRN TN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
EAST TODAY. BUT STILL THINK THAT WITH WEAK S/W IN SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN)
AHEAD OF CDFNT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CDFNT)...NW AL WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OF MORE POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN (DUE TO HIGHS PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW)`S/INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)). VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MRNG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MRNG) AT BOTH TAFS SITES. HOWEVER MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL) WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) DUE TO BETTER CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OF TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)/SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA). WILL
KEEP HSV VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) EXCEPT FOR MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) IN ANY TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) THAT WOULD DEVELOP. MODELS
SHOW PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT IF NOT END...SO WILL LEAVE PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) OUT
OF BOTH TAFS. UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO BUILD OVER THE SERN US BY
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OF PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN).
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TN
VALLEY REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY WET PATTERN.
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THOUGH IN THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HINTING
AT THIS RAINY OFF AND ON PATTERN FINALLY COMING TO AN END WITH THE
FALL SEASON NOW HERE. FIRST THING TO ADDRESS THOUGH IS THE FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH)
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT. POTENT SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL%20LINE) OUT OF THE
SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) PLAINS LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THIS EARLY MORNING. 00Z GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) THOUGH SUGGEST THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS SHEARING APART AS IT MOVES INTO AL LATER
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED COUPLED WITH SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING...IT MAY BE
WISE TO HAVE THE WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS) BEFORE
EXPIRING GIVEN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH MORE
RAIN THIS APPROACHING SQUALL LINE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SQUALL%20LINE) WILL BRING TO THE TN VALLEY. THE
DAY SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX)
SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKEWISE BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF
INDEED IT IS SAFE TO GO AHEAD AND LET THE FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

GOING INTO MID WEEK...THE WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) PATTERN MAY FINALLY TRANSITION INTO
MORE OF A TYPICAL FALL LIKE SCENARIO AS A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) PATTERN ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE ERN GULF COAST REGION. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRAVERSE TOWARD THE NE ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) LIKE
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS) AND THEN BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) IN THE EVENING. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINING WORK
WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN AOA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AOA) 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR THIS BEING
THE BEGINNING OF THE FALL SEASON.

YET ANOTHER WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) TRANSITION THEN LOOKS TO TAKE EFFECT FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND PERIOD. THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
BONA FIDE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)/EARLY SUN...AS AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) SWINGS EWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EWD) THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE NE STATES. STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS THEN BEGINS TO BUILD SWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SWD) TOWARD THE SE REGION
MON AND TUE. SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THOUGH THAT
WOULD BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WET PATTERN THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...TRANQUIL FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS LOOK TO FINALLY ARRIVE TO THE TN VALLEY FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERALL TEMPS FALLING TO SEASONAL TRENDS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARS HALL...
MORGAN.

TN...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KULA
PREV DISCUSSION...07

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 231912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ITS BEEN ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA....AND MAY PLAGUE US THE REST OF THE AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. BATCHES OF +SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) ARE SLOWLY MOVING NEWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NEWD) THRU NWRN
AL INTO SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) TN. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW OF SCOTTSBORO TO
HUNTSVILLE AND CULLMAN...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF +SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF MS...BUT THESE ARE MOVG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOVG) MORE N THAN E...BUT COULD CLIP FAR NWRN
AL LATER THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). SATURATED SOILS AND SMALL CREEKS CONTINUE TO RUN
FAIRLY HIGH FROM PREVIOUS RUNOFF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RUNOFF)...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD. WE HAVE KEPT
CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVERNIGHT...WEIGHTED MORE TO NWRN AL AND HAVE ADDRESSED THE
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. HAVE ALSO SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PERSISTENCE) FOR LOW
TEMPS WHICH HAVE RUN AOA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AOA) 70F 9 DAYS AT KHSV.

VAST AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND THROUGHOUT THE LWR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LWR) MS VALLEY. A CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) WAS SPINNING OVER
WRN KS AND WAS DRIFTING SW. AN UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
FAR SE FROM THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS THANKFULLY SUPPRESSED RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) ACROSS
THIS REGION. JUST TO THE NW...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NEWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NEWD) IN THE SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) REGIME ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND
OZARKS WHICH LIE BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE). THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONGER NRN STREAM
SYSTEM "KICKS" THE LOW EWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EWD) THRU THE OH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OH) VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A
STRONGER MID LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) OF 50-65KT CUTS THRU THE OH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OH) AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY AS THIS TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) MOVES THRU...WHICH COULD YIELD HIGHER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING/FLOODING. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN FFA GIVEN
THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) IS ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN RATHER
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ARRIVES FROM THE W...AND A "WEDGE" BUILDS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT FROM OUR E. 12Z MODEL QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) SIGNALS THAT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO OCCUR IN MIDDLE TN THRU NC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NC)/NW AL. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THIS AREA CLOSELY GIVEN CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS.

THE MUCH AWAITED STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS STILL PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO SWEEP
THROUGH ON MONDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON TIMING...WE
HAVE PLACED A SCHC OF TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) WITH THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AS SOME RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
HUNTSVILLE 70 86 70 87 69 / 30 70 20 60 40
SHOALS 70 85 69 86 69 / 40 70 20 60 50
VINEMONT 71 85 70 86 69 / 30 60 20 60 40
FAYETTEVILLE 70 85 70 85 67 / 30 70 20 60 40
ALBERTVILLE 71 86 70 86 68 / 30 50 20 60 40
FORT PAYNE 71 86 69 87 67 / 20 50 20 60 40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

AK

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 251157 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) CONTINUES ACROSS KMSL AND KHSV THIS MORNING AS IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) AND
LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
-SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH AS PINPOINTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
AROUND 06Z WITH -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) AND LOWER CEILINGS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) AND H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RUC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RUC)
ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW SITTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES...AND COPIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STREAMING
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...REGIONAL
RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 07Z OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) INDICATE
PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SURGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MUCH LIKE THURSDAY...DO NOT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE
WIDESPREAD. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE BY THE AFTERNOON AS BEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE)
SETS UP ACROSS THE PLATEAU. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...WITH PWATS HOVERING ABOUT 2.0 INCHES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TODAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) THREAT AS 1
HOUR FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) GUIDANCE VALUES SIT GENERALLY AOB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AOB) 2.0 INCHES
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)-WIDE. WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) FORCING STILL NORTHWEST OF
HERE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING).

AS THE UPPER LOW ASSIMILATES INTO THE WESTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WESTERLIES) TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TONIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS
TO BE GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT AS DAWN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DAWN)
APPROACHES THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE APPROACHING
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL JETS BRUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
STILL IN PLACE /PWATS APPROACHING 2.25IN/...NOT ONLY WILL THE
THUNDERSTORMS BE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE OPTED
TO HOIST A FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER DAY. LOOKING TOWARD THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A
SECOND COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL BRING NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND
50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS
ON MONDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. IN THE
EXTENDED...GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) CONTINUE TO BRING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/EARLY IN WEEKEND. WILL SEE HOW IT SHAPES UP...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) STARTING FRIDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARS HALL...
MORGAN.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CULLMAN...DEKALB...
JACKSON...MADISON...MARSHALL...MORGAN.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...FRANKLIN AL...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE.

TN...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...
LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KNS/33
DISCUSSION...JLL

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 251157 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) CONTINUES ACROSS KMSL AND KHSV THIS MORNING AS IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) AND
LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
-SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH AS PINPOINTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
AROUND 06Z WITH -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) AND LOWER CEILINGS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) AND H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RUC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RUC)
ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) LOW SITTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES...AND COPIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STREAMING
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...REGIONAL
RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 07Z OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) INDICATE
PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SURGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MUCH LIKE THURSDAY...DO NOT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE
WIDESPREAD. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE BY THE AFTERNOON AS BEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE)
SETS UP ACROSS THE PLATEAU. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...WITH PWATS HOVERING ABOUT 2.0 INCHES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TODAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) THREAT AS 1
HOUR FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) GUIDANCE VALUES SIT GENERALLY AOB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AOB) 2.0 INCHES
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)-WIDE. WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) FORCING STILL NORTHWEST OF
HERE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIGHTNING).

AS THE UPPER LOW ASSIMILATES INTO THE WESTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WESTERLIES) TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) TONIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS
TO BE GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT AS DAWN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DAWN)
APPROACHES THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE APPROACHING
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL JETS BRUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
STILL IN PLACE /PWATS APPROACHING 2.25IN/...NOT ONLY WILL THE
THUNDERSTORMS BE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE OPTED
TO HOIST A FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER DAY. LOOKING TOWARD THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A
SECOND COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL BRING NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND
50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS
ON MONDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. IN THE
EXTENDED...GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) CONTINUE TO BRING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/EARLY IN WEEKEND. WILL SEE HOW IT SHAPES UP...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LOW POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) STARTING FRIDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARS HALL...
MORGAN.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CULLMAN...DEKALB...
JACKSON...MADISON...MARSHALL...MORGAN.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...FRANKLIN AL...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE.

TN...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...
LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KNS/33
DISCUSSION...JLL

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 281533
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.UPDATE...REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) IN NERN ZONES AND TO CHANGE SKY
WORDING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST).

&&

.DISCUSSION...CDFNT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CDFNT) NOW PUSHING THRU THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) AND EXTENDED FROM OUR
TN ZONES THRU THE HUN AREA AND INTO CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THE CDFNT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CDFNT)
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 30S OVER MO. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIR
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON BREEZY NW WINDS. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WAS MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 1130Z....IT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR COOKEVILLE...TO NW OF FAYETTEVILLE AND
RUSSELLVILLE. CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) RANGE WERE NOTED WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
MAINLY FOR THE KHSV AIRPORT THROUGH 14Z. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KNOT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KNOT) RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) AND H5 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=H5) RUC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RUC) ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A POTENT />100KT/ MID LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) NOSING INTO ILLINOIS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO TEXAS...AND IS JUST ABOUT TO PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE AREA. PROFILERS FROM ACROSS MISSOURI SHOW A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20LEVEL%20JET) /AROUND 40KT AT 1K FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT)/...WITH SURFACE OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INDICATING GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20KT
RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S/UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...ENDING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WITH THE FIRST TASTE OF
FALL. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND INTO KENTUCKY INDICATE A
SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S/ ALONG
WITH A FEW TENDRILS OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
IMPACT NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE)...AND GIVEN MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) INTRUSION...HAVE
REINTRODUCED ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20SHIFT)
TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20MPH RANGE /PER NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
SOUNDINGS/. DESPITE THE MOSTLY SUNNY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20SUNNY) SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN CAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAA) WITH H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 8/9C BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLEAR) SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND DRY AIR FLOWS INTO THE
REGION. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) INCREASES AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLOSED%20LOW) DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. AS THEY HAVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PUSHING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 301510 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1008 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS/DEW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEW) POINTS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) RUNNING N-S ALONG THE MISS VALLEY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS...DRY WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE/FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST)
DIURNAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIURNAL) CURVES. SO...ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST
AREAS. STILL EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY ARND (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ARND) 70 TO 75...WITH UPR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPR)
60S IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE ~1200 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT). ADJUSTED DEW POINT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEW%20POINT) TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION... /FOR 12Z TAFS. NO CHANGES./
OUTSIDE OF VERY PATCHY BR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BR) THIS MORNING AT MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL)...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AT BOTH
SITES. MODELS INDICATE MORE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL INFILTRATE NW AL LATE
TONIGHT...AND SINCE MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL) VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS) DID BRIEFLY DROP EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MENTION BR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BR) IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN AT HSV WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO WILL CONTINUE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
FORECAST ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INUVUIT RIDGED SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST. THIS CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUED TO BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. 3 AM TEMPS THUS FAR HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH GENERALLY CALM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CALM) OR LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT MOVED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
A FEW DAYS AGO EXTENDED FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS THE CANADIAN HIGH GRADUALLY
MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...HELPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR `NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)`
READINGS. A SLOW INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FURTHER INLAND.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WAS SPINNING UP OVER SW CANADA. THIS NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WAS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY STRONG WESTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WESTERLIES).
ALSO...A SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FORMING OVER THE BAJA AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WAS FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE TENNESSEE VALLY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. TIMING FROM BOTH THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PAINTING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING OVER THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) NEARS.
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES JUST BELOW LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) FOR FRIDAY...WITH MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) IN
NOT AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS). BUFFER SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)/GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
WERE NOT SHOWING HIGH INSTABILITIES THAT COULD INDICATE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) FOR FRIDAY MORNING
INDICATED OVER 350 M/S 0-3KM HELICITIES AND 850 WINDS OVER 40KTS.
THUS...SOME OF THE STORMS DURING FRIDAY COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT WINDS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE AROUND HERE...
BREAKS WITHIN A CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) LINE COULD GENERATE QUICK SPINUPS OR
PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN.

DRY WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A TAD BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS THE PARENT LOW
INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.

IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE
VALLEY BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION).
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARE CALLED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDW/03
AVIATION...JLL
PREV DISCUSSION...RSB

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=11&glossary=1) 12 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=12&glossary=1) 13 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=13&glossary=1) 14 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=14&glossary=1) 15 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=15&glossary=1) 16 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=16&glossary=1) 17 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=17&glossary=1) 18 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=18&glossary=1) 19 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=19&glossary=1) 20 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=20&glossary=1) 21 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=21&glossary=1) 22 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=22&glossary=1) 23 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=23&glossary=1) 24 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=24&glossary=1) 25 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=25&glossary=1) 26 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=26&glossary=1) 27 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=27&glossary=1) 28 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=28&glossary=1) 29 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=29&glossary=1) 30 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=30&glossary=1) 31 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=31&glossary=1) 32 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=32&glossary=1) 33 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=33&glossary=1) 34 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=34&glossary=1) 35 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=35&glossary=1) 36 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=36&glossary=1) 37 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=37&glossary=1) 38 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 011506 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1005 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEW) POINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) CONTINUES TO LOOM TO OUR WEST...WITH LEADING CLOUD
CANOPY NOW APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER. SHOULD SEE SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN)...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20SUNNY) SKY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE. MIXING HEIGHT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEIGHT) TEMPS SUGGEST MID/UPR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPR)
70S ARE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) AT THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS APPROACHING 80 IN A
FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) SEEMS A
LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN EARLIER THINKING...SO RAISED DEW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEW) POINTS A
FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION... /FOR 12Z AVIATION. NO CHANGES./

FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL LIFT AT MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL) 13-14Z. ONCE THAT OCCURS...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU ROUGHLY THE NEXT 20 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS). WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) WILL BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE TOWARDS 12Z TMRW DUE TO PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) AND MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS
ADVANCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). EXPECT TO SEE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS PUSH INTO
MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL) BY 09Z AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS ALONG WITH VCSH. FOR
HSV...TIMING IS TOO CLOSE TO THE END OF THE PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD) TO INCLUDE ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009/
A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA TO NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO SWEEP TO THE EAST AND REACH THE MID SOUTH/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND JUST WEST OF NW ALABAMA AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OTHERWISE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED A LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASED
THEM TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET ACROSS NE ALABAMA...WITH
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) REACHING THAT AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AREAS WELL
WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO EXPERIENCE
THE STRONGER STORMS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) NORTH OF THIS AREA...GOING INTO AN OCCLUDING
LOW OVER THE SW GREAT LAKES REGION. TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. LESSER
INSTABILITIES TO WORK WITH SHOULD TEND TO KEEP STORM INTENSITIES
GENERALLY MINIMIZED.

A NICE WEEKEND REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...AS COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
TEXAS COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 70S.

MORE CYCLOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH MUCH
RICHER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS TREND IF IT CONTINUES...COULD BE INDICATIVE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...SOMETHING LIKE WHAT WE HAD LAST WEEK.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDW/03
AVIATION...BCC
PREV DISCUSSION...RSB

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 041140 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
640 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&

.AVIATION...INITIAL WAVE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...SHOULD AFFECT KMSL/KHSV BTWN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BTWN) 13-16Z. VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LIGHT E/NE LLVL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) MAINTAINS
DRIER CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
00Z/05 WITH PERIODS OF MOD/HVY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HVY) RAIN AT TIMES BY 03Z. MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFT) 00Z WITH PERIODIC IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DJN
&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT/...
LATEST IR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IR) IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS)
COVERING THE REGION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS (AND
PRECIP SHIELD) NEAR THE ARKLATEX. THIS IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE 00Z NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM)...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) APPEARS
TOO DRY WITH THE BLYR MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE).

THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) POSITIONED ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A LLJ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LLJ) STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN ASSOCIATED SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW
WILL SLIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ALONG...AND NORTH...OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. TAPERED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD FROM THE WEST (NEAR CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL)) TO EAST (CHANCE)
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD 00Z.

MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) WILL BE
MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) IS
ANTICIPATED. EXPECT LIGHTER PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND RELATIVE STRATIFORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATIFORM) NATURE OF EVENT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE BETWEEN 3/4 OF AN INCH TO UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) IN ZFP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ZFP) AND HWO...BUT HOLD OFF
ON ANY TYPE OF WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FOR NOW.

THE BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES THE TN VLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VLY) LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ACCORDINGLY. PWATS ACTUALLY RISE TO NEAR 2"
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TUE NIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BEYOND TUESDAY THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE...THOUGH (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) THE PICTURE
IS STARTING TO BECOME A BIT CLEARER. THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
CERTAINLY LOOKS UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT. A RATHER ROBUST SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TN VLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VLY) DURING THE FRI/SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL). IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF VERY CHILLY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
HUNTSVILLE 68 56 66 57 74 / 50 100 40 10 40
SHOALS 67 55 68 57 74 / 60 100 30 10 40
VINEMONT 69 56 66 57 72 / 50 100 40 10 40
FAYETTEVILLE 67 54 66 55 72 / 40 100 40 10 40
ALBERTVILLE 69 55 65 55 72 / 50 100 50 10 40
FORT PAYNE 69 55 64 54 72 / 30 100 50 10 40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

15/CBD
83/DJN...AVIATION.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=20&glossary=1) 21 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=21&glossary=1) 22 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=22&glossary=1) 23 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=23&glossary=1) 24 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=24&glossary=1) 25 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=25&glossary=1) 26 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=26&glossary=1) 27 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=27&glossary=1) 28 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=28&glossary=1) 29 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=29&glossary=1) 30 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=30&glossary=1) 31 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=31&glossary=1) 32 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=32&glossary=1) 33 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=33&glossary=1) 34 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=34&glossary=1) 35 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=35&glossary=1) 36 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=36&glossary=1) 37 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=37&glossary=1) 38 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 051740 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT UP TO 2500 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS
WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 1200-1500 FEET. NOT
CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CONDITIONS JUST YET BUT DID INCLUDE A
SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) 700 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) DECK AFTER 06Z. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
6/12Z AND 6/18Z WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED WELL OUT OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET VERY FAR INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY GET ABOUT 4-6
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE 10 AM TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/
LOW LEVEL FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM (EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS).
THE PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TUESDAY SURROUNDS TEMP RECOVERY. EXPECT
THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) TO BE OFFSET TO SOME EXTENT BY LINGERING BLYR
INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) (AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK) AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). PWATS RISE TO NEAR 2" AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRANSPORT/MASS CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WED. NOT OVERWHELMED BY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...BUT THE BREAK IN THE
RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL APPROACH THE TN VLY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VLY)
LATE FRI INTO SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION
AS THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE
THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) IS SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION. FOR THE TIME
BEING...CONSISTENCY WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KNS
DISCUSSION...KNS
PREV DISCUSSION...CBD

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 061114 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&

.AVIATION...LOW/MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) LEVELS AROUND 18Z. SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NRN
AL FROM THE W AROUND 00Z WED WITH CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS
LOWERING TO BRIEF MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CRITERIA IN AND NEAR THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
&&


.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) COVERS MOST OF THE SERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND NWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWD) INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD W/SWLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT. MORNING SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) MAPS ARE
UNREMARKABLE THIS FAR EAST...BUT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS DRAWING NWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWD) INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE). THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO CALIFORNIA WITH A COMPACT RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BREAK
AWAY FROM ITS LAGGING BASE...RACE ACROSS THE NERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND OUT TO
SEA OVER THE NEXT 48HR IN RESPONSE TO A 125-150KT UPPER JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET). THIS
WILL DRAG A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS THE AREA BY ROUGHLY THIS TIME TMRW.
WHILE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA) TIMING...AGREEMENT IS
LACKLUSTER ON JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE. WE WILL SEE SCTD SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) AS THE LOW-LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
MOISTENS AND DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE)...BUT THE BEST TIMING FOR
PRECIP WILL BE AFTER DARK. AS USUAL...THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
THAN THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...BUT GEFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE WETTER
SOLN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOLN)...AND THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) HAS A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH NEAR-100 2ND PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE LAST FEW YRS. AS INDICATED BY THE SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) DAY 1 SLIGHT
RISK...THERE IS A SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) THREAT TO CONSIDER FOR MAINLY LATE
AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN)/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT THE MODEST SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)
/3KM SRH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRH) 100-150 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2)/...BUT INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) SEEMS TO BE THE QUESTION.
IF THE HUN CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARM%20SECTOR) /WHERE DEWPTS APPROACH
70F/...SOME SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) TSTMS CAPABLE OF DMG WINDS/LG HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL) ARE POSSIBLE.

ONCE A FEW LINGERING SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) CLEAR THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD TURN DRY AND COOLER
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/. A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF THURSDAY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) VALUES WED NIGHT SINCE THERE MAY BE A
PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD) OF GOOD RADNL COOLING...THEN WITH WARMER VALUES THU DUE TO
DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND POSSIBLE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SWRN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) ARE NOT THAT FAR APART ON TIMING
OR AMPLITUDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AMPLITUDE) SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FRI/FRI NIGHT...BUT
THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW QUICKLY PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) A LITTLE LONGER SATURDAY TO ALLOW
FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SOLN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOLN). PREFRONTAL TEMPS MAY WELL EXCEED 80F
FRIDAY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) AND SUN. TRENDED A
BIT ABOVE GFSX MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) FRIDAY...BUT CLOSE TO IT OTHERWISE.

MED-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A REINFORCING
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY. MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR
MUCH PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN)...BUT THE PATTERN CHANGE MAY MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) MARKEDLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFSX MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) FOR NOW BUT
THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH).
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...BCC

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[Stormlover]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0764_radar.gif

[Stormlover]

Wow, up to 3 inches per hour!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-101000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND
1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[Stormlover]

here we go again with more heavy rain:
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009

ALZ006>010-016-121100-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FF.A.0010.091012T0900Z-091012T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
MADISON-MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...GUNTERSVILLE...
SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN
918 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...CULLMAN...MADISON AND MORGAN. IN NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...DEKALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL.

* FROM 4 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH ALABAMA OVERNIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RAINFALL...COUPLED WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[Stormlover]

Much below normal temps into the Tennessee Valley this weekend.(map time sensitive)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 211729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS)...THOUGH UPPER
THEN MID-LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THAT TIME. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AT MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL).
&&

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1012 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009...
MORNING SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOSTLY%20CLEAR)...ASIDE
FROM SOME SCTD CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) PLAINS.

THOUGH CIRRUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRRUS) ALREADY APPEARS THICKER THAN INDICATED BY VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS)
IMAGERY...EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD STILL REALIZE ENOUGH ROBUST
INSOLATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSOLATION) TO REACH FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) HIGH TEMPS TODAY /PARTICULARLY WITH 10AM
TEMPS AROUND 60F/. FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) ALSO HANDLES THE INCREASING CLOUDS WELL AND
SEE NO REASON FOR MAJOR CHANGES THERE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009...
TONIGHT...THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH OF RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)/VALLEY SPLIT WITH A LGT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LGT)
BOUNDARY LYR WIND. STILL EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ~10-15
KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS)...AND WARMER TEMPS. THINK THAT TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST MAY FALL INTO THE 40S.

THURS...THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER BY LATE IN
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING ACROSS OUR AREA. WAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAA)/
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD)/SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) WILL CERTAINLY BE LIMITED
AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS AN UPR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPR) SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO NWRN AL...BUT WILL KEEP AN ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD) TS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TS) MENTION FOR THE WRN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA THRU 00Z FRI.

THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THE FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) AS
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...REMNANT
MID/UPR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPR) LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FROM "RICK" WILL CONTINUE TO BE INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS...TOGETHER WITH DECENT LOW LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OF
MARITIME SUB-TROPICAL ORIGIN WILL PRODUCE PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES ARND (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ARND) 1.7-1.8
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MOSTLY A
MOIST ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC) PROFILE...WHICH MEANS CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL BE LIMITED AND
TYPICALLY NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...THE STRONG WIND FIELD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20FIELD)...WITH 40KTS
ARND (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ARND) 800-900MB MAY GENERATE STRONG WIND GUSTS WHERE ANY TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)/
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) EXIST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARND (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ARND) 1-2 INCHES LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY).

THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FA) AROUND 18Z FRI
TO 06Z SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO TAKE NO
MORE THAN ABOUT 6 HOURS...WILL LEAVE A FAIRLY WIDE WINDOW DUE TO
CONTINUING MODEL DISCREPANCY. BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...MAY SEE A PERIOD
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) OR PERHAPS EVEN DZ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DZ)...BUT WILL CARRY -SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)
FOR NOW IN GRIDS/ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP)
FOR SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) FOR ABOUT THE NERN QUARTER OF THE AREA ON SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) (HAVE SCALED
BACK PREV 20 POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP))...AS AN UPR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPR) WAVE CLIPS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE DRYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL).

ANOTHER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) BY TUES...
WITH AN OVERRUNNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERRUNNING) SITUATION DEVELOPING IN THE SERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST RAIN WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) TO ACCOUNT FOR
SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$

AVIATION/UPDATE...BCC
PREV DISCUSSION...KDW

[Stormlover]

Sun shining and 78. Turned into a great day after the rain moved on. The rain is gone!

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=11&glossary=1) 12 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=12&glossary=1) 13 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=13&glossary=1) 14 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=14&glossary=1) 15 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=15&glossary=1) 16 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=16&glossary=1) 17 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=17&glossary=1) 18 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=18&glossary=1) 19 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=19&glossary=1) 20 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=20&glossary=1) 21 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=21&glossary=1) 22 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=22&glossary=1) 23 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=23&glossary=1) 24 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=24&glossary=1) 25 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=25&glossary=1) 26 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=26&glossary=1) 27 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=27&glossary=1) 28 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=28&glossary=1) 29 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=29&glossary=1) 30 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=30&glossary=1) 31 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=31&glossary=1) 32 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=32&glossary=1) 33 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=33&glossary=1) 34 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=34&glossary=1) 35 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=35&glossary=1) 36 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=36&glossary=1) 37 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=37&glossary=1) 38 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 271456 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ARE WORKING OUT WELL FOR TODAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS
IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH TODAY WITH
THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AND CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK IF AND WHEN A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) OCCURS. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THIS WELL AND
NO UPDATES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
BOTH VISBY AND CIGS WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE TODAY...PROBABLY
PREVAILING MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)...BUT WITH PDS OF IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR). MIGHT SEE BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
IN EITHER CIGS/VISBY OR BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING A
POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE RAIN...BEFORE BOTH GO WAY DOWN OVERNIGHT.
WENT PREVAILING IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) AFTER 28/07Z BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR)...ESPECIALLY AT MSL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MSL). THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER
FORECASTS...BUT LEFT OUT FOR RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN RETURNING TO THE TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
MORNING. LATEST IR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IR) SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STREAMING NWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWD)
INTO THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ORIENTED N-S
ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SCANS ARE ALSO
SHOWING PRECIP GRADUALLY FILLING INTO NRN AL FROM THE S AND E. THE
PRECIP TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OUT TO THE W GETTING A SLIGHT
NUDGE FROM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) PLAINS. SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)
BASED INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) LOOKS ALL BUT NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE AREA
THEREBY DIMINISHING ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) TODAY. PWATS THOUGH OFF
THE BUFR SOUNDINGS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES LATER TODAY
TRANSLATING INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) THREAT. THE LATEST MODEL
SUITES THOUGH SHOW THE WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AIDED BY A SHRTWV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRTWV) ALOFT LIFTING TOWARD THE NE INTO THE OH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OH)
VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP END THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING XCPT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=XCPT) FOR PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...BELIEVE ANY THREAT FROM
FLOODING WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON WED
PROVIDING A VERY BRIEF COOLING AND DRYING TREND BEFORE A MUCH MORE
POTENT WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE ERN
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) THU. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH SPATIAL AND TIMING
CONTINUITY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THU AND FRI WITH THIS LATEST RUN OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOME KIND OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI/EARLY SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) WITH THE PARENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) DEFLECTING WELL TO THE N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THOUGH DOES GET A SOLID PUSH FROM A DIGGING
SHRTWV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRTWV) ALOFT ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH UPPER FORCING WELL IN PLACE
EARLY SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). STRONG CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE) ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) COUPLED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) SUGGEST SOME OF THE TSTMS FRI NIGHT COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE IN NATURE...WITH A LINEAR ORIENTATION XPCTED TO
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...THEREBY IMPLYING A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THEN LOOKS TO GET A SECOND PUSH
SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) FROM A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

THE REMAINING HALF OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE TRANQUIL AS THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SETTLES OVER THE TN VALLEY AREA. WHILE A SIG COOL
DOWN IS NOT XCPTED WITH THIS NEXT AIRMASS...THE LONG RANGE TEMP
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO TREND NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) UNDER MOSTLY CLR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLR) TO
PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) SKIES.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KNS
AVIATION...JE/23
PREV DISCUSSION...09

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=20&glossary=1) 21 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=21&glossary=1) 22 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=22&glossary=1) 23 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=23&glossary=1) 24 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=24&glossary=1) 25 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=25&glossary=1) 26 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=26&glossary=1) 27 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=27&glossary=1) 28 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=28&glossary=1) 29 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=29&glossary=1) 30 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=30&glossary=1) 31 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=31&glossary=1) 32 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=32&glossary=1) 33 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=33&glossary=1) 34 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=34&glossary=1) 35 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=35&glossary=1) 36 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=36&glossary=1) 37 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=37&glossary=1) 38 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KHUN 281742 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY 19-20Z AT BOTH
TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) SITES AS THE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIG) DISSIPATES OVER N AL. VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1014 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009/
THE LOW CLOUD DECK LEFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN
YESTERDAY CONTINUES ITS STAY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IS APPROACHING THE SE
PORTIONS OF DEKALB COUNTY AND SW PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTY.
FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z RSA SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS
ABOUT 1000 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT). THUS...THE CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO DISSIPATE/CLEAR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUD DECK
LEAVES...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S. DID LOWER DAYTIME
HIGHS SOMEWHAT GIVEN THAT THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY GRADUALLY MOVING OFF.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

SL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SL).77

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 181119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
520 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. IF
EXISTING CLOUD COVER BREAKS...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) VISBY
AND/OR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AND/OR LOW
STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS). UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) VISBY
AT KMSL FOR NOW.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) OVER MO CONTINUES ITS SPIN CYCLE TODAY AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTHWARD. DUE TO ITS MEANDERING NATURE...THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
THAT PASSED OVER THE TN VALLEY TODAY REMAINS STALLED OVER W GA.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)/JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) STRETCHING OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CANADA.

A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) STRETCHING DIAGONALLY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS SWWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SWWD) TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SITS BTWN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BTWN) THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY DERIVE FROM HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STAY OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS) IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY RISING ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER MS/N AL CONTINUES BREAKING...TEMPS MAY BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER NE
AL. FURTHERMORE...IF THE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP DURING THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TONIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOME VALLEYS
MAY REACH FREEZING ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING...PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS.

BY THURSDAY...A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A
SUNNY SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AGAIN. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE
THE NIGHT THAT HAS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROBABILITY) OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WITH THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH SITTING ATOP N AL.

TEMPS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) SENDS
SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO AT LEAST CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION INVOLVING A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) APPEARS TO ORIGINATE FROM
WESTERN CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN CUTS OFF OVER
SOUTHEAST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT...THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.
THUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...DUE TO THE
WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW)...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A COOL DOWN WITH ITS PASSAGE.

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLES) APPARENTLY AGREE
THAT THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE). HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH TIMING/TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS
ISSUE...HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE BETTER TRACK RECORD
OF THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF).

THERE IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR TUESDAY.

HAVE LEFT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 40S
FOR LOWS DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY.
ON MONDAY WAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAA) AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...SL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SL).77
AVIATION...JE/23

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