NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area [Archive]

Joe-Nathan

04-14-2009, 06:29 AM

AREA FORCAST DISCUSSION:

AVIATION...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY... BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. NO AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN ADVANCE OF THE A SLOWLY MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. WE CAN EXPECT A WET PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM...
WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND COOLER H850 TEMPS THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THE COMFORTABLE LOWER 70S WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND FRESH BREEZES.
LONG TERM...
THE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO STORMY ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A LOW CLOSES OFF AND PUTS ON THE BRAKES NEAR THE PAN HANDLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL ACT TO SLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LAST FEW RUNS SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS WE'VE JUST SEEN WITH THE LATEST STACKED LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE, A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. WE MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH THE CAP AS WE WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM.
MARINE...
WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z (7AM). THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN UPDATE OF THE COASTAL FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SCA. CURRENT WINDS ARE GUSTING JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A LONG FETCH, PRODUCING BUILDING SEAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE HOISTING OF A SUBSEQUENT SCA.
JS

ZONE FORCAST:

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
359 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
TXZ180>182-201-142100-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
359 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

TODAY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

TONIGHT CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WEDNESDAY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

Joe-Nathan

04-15-2009, 06:28 AM

Area Forcast Discussion:

SHORT TERM
AT LEAST TODAY WILL BE NICE BEFORE WE FALL BACK INTO SEVERE WEATHER MODE AGAIN. NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME DEW PTS BACK BUT THE 70S DP STAY LOCKED UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FIRST EVIDENCE OF HOW THINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A STRONG VORT CENTER THAT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL BEND OF TX AND INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER. PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM WHERE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE OCCURRING OVER SE TX INTO AN AREA THAT IS LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...THE FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SINCE ONLY ONE POINT OF CONNECTIVITY WITH ANY MOISTURE AND A TS WILL GET FIRED OFF WITH ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PROVIDE SEVERE WX. IF ANYTHING GETS STARTED...IT WOULD BE ELEVATED AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL.

LONG TERM
WARM FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOADING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HEATING PROVIDES THAT EXTRA LIFT. STRONGER DYNAMICALLY FORCED LIFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LAYS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE FROM VICKSBURG TO NEAR HOUSTON. THIS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP SET UP THE REAL WEATHER MAKER FOR SATURDAY. IT IS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL INTERFACE THAT A VERY STRONG DISTURBANCE IS EJECTED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ALL THE SUPPORT NEEDED UPSTAIRS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE GET GOING AROUND 10AM SATURDAY NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FROM THERE...IT WILL EXPLODE AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW UP TO HOUSTON AND OVER TO LCH BY SAT EVENING WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO GET PICKED UP BY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. IT THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG AND SEVERE TS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE LA...SOME OF THE RAINFALL TALLIES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM THE HOUSTON AREA THROUGH HERE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FLUSHES EVERYTHING EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

Joe-Nathan

04-16-2009, 06:13 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL SEGMENT BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND CAMERON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A GULF-OF-MEXICO WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY. MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE RAINS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009
/ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST NORTH OF HAVANA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...PERMITTING THIS WARM FRONT TO BACKDOOR NORTHWARD ..ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER-UP...A LARGE-AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LOW INDEX PATTERN IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IN PLACE...NAMELY THE MIDWEST RIDGE AND A CUT-OFF LOW VICINITY THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN.
A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF AND PASSING OVER THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM IS SETTING-UP...AS BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR STREAMS IN...UPGLIDING OVER THE CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GULF CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL...WHILE NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
FOR FRIDAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES ON FRIDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

Joe-Nathan

04-17-2009, 06:25 AM

FROM NWS - LAKE CHARLES, LA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES BETWEEN JEFFERSON AND VERMILION.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ...WITH SPOT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
RAINS WILL BE ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...PERMITTING A GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT TO SWING NORTHWARD ..ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER-UP...A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HIGHLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...REACHING MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.
A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW. ONE WAVETRAIN TRACK FOR THE ROTATING SHORTWAVES IS LOCATED ALONG A SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LINE. THIS TRACK WILL MOVE EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
CLOUD COVER...FRESH WINDS...AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN... FUELING ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVETRAIN TRACK... AN ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVETRAIN TRACK WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT BASIN-AVERAGED AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HPC QPF (QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FIELDS) AND THE GFS QPF.
BY SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

Joe-Nathan

04-20-2009, 06:15 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMING VARIABLE OR
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NW GULF. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR LOWS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE ON THE HIGHS.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. WITH THE MODELS BOUNCING AROUND ON A SYSTEM
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND JUST WENT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...RUNOFF CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO AREA RIVER SYSTEMS...WITH FLOODING OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED ALONG MUCH OF THE CALCASIEU RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES
INCLUDING BUNDICK`S AND WHISKY CHITTO CREEKS. THE LOWER MERMENTAU
WILL ALSO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BAYOU ANACOCO WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATER TODAY. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING ARE THE LOWER SABINE RIVER...AND PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER NECHES RIVER AS WELL AS PINE ISLAND BAYOU.

&&

Joe-Nathan

04-21-2009, 06:12 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
AND EXPAND OVER THE GULF AND THEN SHIFT EAST AND EXPAND FURTHER OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS CONTINUE TREND IN DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. GFS
TRIES TO BRING A FRONT TO THE ARKLATX AREA BY LATE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST LOW POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS BREEZY S/SE FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SCEC TO SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF.

.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
CALCASIEU RIVER AT OBERLIN. MOST OF THE RIVERS ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF CRESTING. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO
HAVE MODEST RISES THROUGHOUT TODAY.

&&

YAWN!

Joe-Nathan

04-22-2009, 06:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EARLIER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A MONSTER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COOLED TO SATURATION VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND GIVEN THE
PROLIFIC AP/CLUTTER ON REGIONAL RADARS...I DONT NEED TO SEE THE
12Z RAOB TO KNOW ITS THERE. ONLY A FEW HRS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE FOG...AND VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS TO CLOSE
TO THE END OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AREA WIDE. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS A RESULT WILL SEE WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER FROM THE COAST TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S. ALONG THE COAST THE COOLER WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.
CREATES LOWER PRESSURES IN WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WITH
THE WINDS COMING OFF THE GULF`S COOLER WATERS. ALSO MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST ADVANCES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
COULD MAKE IT THIS FAR TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

FRONT MAKES SOME PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN U.S. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS THE AREA. ALL RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SABINE RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF BON
WEIR AND THE NECHES RIVER SOUTH OF TOWN BLUFF. ALSO THANKS TO THE
COOPERATION OF THE CITY OF ORANGE...SABINE RIVER AUTHORITY AND THE
USGS...A NEW RIVER GAGE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED AT THE ORANGE RIVER
FORECAST POINT.

&&

Yup, it is foggy here in Lafayette - 1/4 mile to 1/2 mile vis.

Joe-Nathan

04-23-2009, 05:24 AM

AWESOME FESTIVAL INTERNATIONAL DE LOUISIANE WEATHER!!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN TROF PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS INDUCES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF LIFTING THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. SO WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE
LIKELY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...THE RIDGE WILL BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS FROM
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION.

AS THE SHEARED OUT REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRANSLATING
EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PER OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF RAINFALL AS
OUR MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE MODIFIES. NAM AND GFS
DISAGREE ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE...WITH THE NAM SAYING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE SREF
CONCURS WITH THE GFS...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EAST
TEXAS SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS SHOULD A POP BE
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SMALL POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED/MAINTAINED FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST/..WHICH WOULD PLACE US A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRAIN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK WEST AS IT WEAKENS.

IN SUMMARY...THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY...HUMID...WARM...AND BREEZY WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...LONG PERIOD WAVES
WILL STEADILY INCREASE. PERSISTENT SCEC IF NOT SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM DUE WINDS AND SEAS...WITH
SCEC LIKELY FOR THE INNER WATERS DUE TO WINDS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

04-24-2009, 07:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR NOTED AT KLFT-KARA-KLCH THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...VFR AT KBPT...AND IFR AT KAEX WITH A LOW CIG AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO LAST FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO AS THE SUN BEGINS TO WARM UP THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. BY THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARY AVIATION WORRY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...WITH VFR THE PREVAILING CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROFFING WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME ALLOWING FOR MODERATE S/SE WINDS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE LOW POPS
IN FORECAST FOR TX ZONES FOR SATURDAY. THTE PROGS MOVE AXIS VERY LITTLE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. WITH BOUNDARY AND BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
WEST AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WITH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND
TOWARD MORE RIDGING IN THE SE...THESE POPS MAY BE ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S/SE FLOW FORECASTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WAVES TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WAVES SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

HYDROLOGY...MOST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE IN
RECESSION.

&&

Small Craft Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA TO HIGH ISLAND TX

GMZ450-452-455-250330-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
720 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
.SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET.
.SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
.MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

Lake Wind Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
722 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM NASHVILLE AND TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO MANY LOUISIANA...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ARZ050-051-059-070-LAZ001-002-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-242100-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-090425T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-CADDO-BOSSIER-DE SOTO-SABINE LA-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...
TEXARKANA...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MANSFIELD...MANY...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFER SON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE. ..NACOGDOCHES...
CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
722 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT CONTINUES WITH A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND A LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL PROVIDE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

Joe-Nathan

04-25-2009, 10:28 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MCS THAT INITIATED NEAR HOUSTON YESTERDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAINFALL REMAINING
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES JUST
BARELY SNEAK INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY TO THE SOUTH OF NOME...WITH
HIGHER TOTALS FARTHER WEST.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENERGY STILL
SPILLING INTO SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH
CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF INITIAL
MCS EVIDENCE OF ADDITIONAL AND CONTINUED LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
GENERALLY SMALL POPS OVER EAST TEXAS AND JUST ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER FOR TODAY...AND LEAVE TONIGHT DRY IN THE EVENT NOTHING
MATERIALIZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE WIND...WHICH BY ALL
ACCOUNTS SHOULD MAKE IT TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND INTO EAST TEXAS AND
WEST LOUISIANA...BUT EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT QUITE GET THERE
SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY BREEZY. WILL RUN THE HAZARD THROUGH
23Z...OR 6 PM...WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA
AREAWIDE.

NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE
SAME UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SE CONUS RIDGE AND WESTERN
CONUS TROF EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL START TO CHANGE ON MONDAY...AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BE ERODED AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSES INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WEATHER CONFIGURATION IS
GENERATING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. A FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS THE RESULT. I COULD
LITERALLY POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROGGED SEAS...BUT WILL STICK
WITH CONVENTION AND STRETCH THE HAZARD GRID THROUGH TONIGHT...OR
THROUGH THE END OF MY SECOND PERIOD. THE INNER WATERS AND
COASTAL/LAKES AND BAYS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...SINCE
THERE ARE CERTAINLY TIMES WITH SCA CRITERIA ARE MET. ON
BALANCE...HOWEVER...SCEC COVERS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
ADEQUATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ~1500-2000FT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT AEX/BPT/LCH
THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...OR ABOVE 3000FT. SE WINDS AT
BPT ALREADY PICKED UP 12-14 KTS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTING TO
INCREASE FURTHER NEAR 20G28KT BY 16Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
AT REMAINING TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG. THESE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT BY 00Z...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10-12KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-
CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER
ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM.

Joe-Nathan

04-27-2009, 06:19 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH PERIODIC BREAKS WITH A SCATTERED DECK
ABOVE 2000 FEET. THUS HAVE CARRIED THESE CONDITIONS TO START THE
TAF PERIOD AT 12Z. MEANWHILE REGIONAL 88D AND OBS INDICATE SPOTTY
STREAMER SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER ACADIANA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH WITH SUNRISE BUT HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
AT KLFT/KARA TO COVER. MAIN STORY AGAIN TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONG SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS JUST
OFF THE SFC MIX DOWN. EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WITH KBPT LIKELY ABOVE 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS
EASILY IN THE 20S. AS WITH LAST EVENING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWES RATHER WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. SE WINDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER STRONG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST...WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF TSAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLN
INITIALIZES THE CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX OVER TX RATHER WELL...AND
SLOWS IT DOWN BEFORE MOVING TO E TX. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS ALREADY
NOTED IN CURRENT IR SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP IT TRUCKIN
INTO SE TX BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND C AND S LA EARLY THIS EVENING.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS SOLN FOR THE FORECAST...GOING FOR 30%
(40% FOR SE TX) OF SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS
MOST OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK TODAY IN THE EVENT THAT THE MCS ACROSS
C TX MOVES INTO SE TX/W LA AND LA...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE LIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT TONIGHT...LESS MIXING WILL OCCUR...THUS LOWS SHOULD
DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT...STILL REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TUE DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA CAN BE EXPECT THIS WEEKEND AS
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
EXISTS...WHICH IS QUITE COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DML

MARINE...
SCA REMAINS FOR ALL ZONES TODAY AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES. AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL RELAX BY THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE DUE TO THE LONG FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH IS WHY
THE SCA REMAINS THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFER SON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
VERMILION BAY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

04-28-2009, 06:08 AM

Hey, an 1/2inch in the ole bucket last night!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS THE EVENTUAL DESTINATION
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY MCS OVER HOUSTON. LATEST RADAR AND SAT
SHOWS MAIN CELL MOVING SE TOWARDS GALVESTON...WHILE NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING FURTHER NORTH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL AGREE TO
KEEP THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS INLAND
SE TX...WHERE I LEFT 50% FOR TODAY...AND 40% FOR SE TX/C LA...AND
30% ELSEWHERE. HIGHS OF THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED. WITH THE MUCH MORE
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...DONT EXPECT THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS LIKE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON. PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES AMONG THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WED AND THU. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND FOCUS
FURTHER NORTH...OTHERWISE THE CHANCE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH NO COOL FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH...LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO DROP THE SCA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. KEPT SCEC FOR SE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT
THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS NO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS.

DML

There are numerous FLOOD WARNINGS out for several Bayous and Streams in SW LA and SE TX. Please check NWS - Lake Charles for more info!
LINKY:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/

Joe-Nathan

04-29-2009, 06:16 AM

Foggy and trace of rain in the old bucket

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-300915-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
403 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION WHILE WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASS PERIODICALLY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING US IN A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW.
RESULT IS A MOIST AIRMASS WITH REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MRH VALUES AROUND 75 PERCENT. SFC
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL 88DS ARE CURRENTLY PPINE...A BIG CHANGE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING
THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF WAVES PASSING ALOFT BUT WITH LOW CERTAINTY
IN THE VALIDITY OF THE TIMING HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSH
LOW POP THAN TO TRY TO TIME THE WAVES AND INSERT HIGHER POPS AT
THOSE TIMES. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT MOST OF THESE
WAVES SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH
THEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME BEING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY IN FACT BE MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH SAGS SWD TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER ALL THE LONG-RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON THE FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COMPLETELY
CROSSING SO THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SRLY FLOW BASICALLY LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...KIND OF AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SRLY WIND REGIME HOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

04-30-2009, 05:58 AM

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION WHILE WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASS PERIODICALLY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
410 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS/LAKES REGION OF SE TEXAS. THIS CELL
FORMED WEST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VORT HELPING FIRE THE MCS CROSSING N-CNTL TX ATTM. MEANWHILE
SMALL STREAMER SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON RADAR...MAINLY OVER THE TX
ZONES. OTHERWISE JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING US IN A
LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW.

NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST (I.E. THIS
MORNING) BASED ON WHAT`S BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR. FOR LATER TODAY
THE GFS/ECMWF/ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE ALL SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE
FIRING CONVECTION OVER ERN TX THEN MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY IF/WHERE THIS FEATURE
MOVES HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE FOR NOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHILE SOME LEFTOVER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES MAY BE FLOATING AROUND TO HELP INITIATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY ALOFT AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS
OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

LONGER RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY MID/UPR-
LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH
GOOD ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER AS THE WAVE EJECTS NEWD EXPECT THE
FRONT TO HANG UP JUST TO OUR NW PER LATEST ECMWF RUN WHICH WOULD
KEEP US IN THE MOIST SRLY FLOW AND THUS NECESSITATING A LINGERING
SMALL POP. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE BEST WITH THIS SCENARIO...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF THE GFS PANNED OUT WITH THE FRONT
ACTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BEFORE HANGING UP AND
DRIFTING BACK NWD.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE EITHER AS SRLY FLOW LINGERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-01-2009, 07:55 AM

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-020930-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RETURN FROM OFF THE GULF AND
BRINGING WITH IT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BROKEN STRATOCU IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION RESULTING IN MVFR. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
BREAK INTO SCATTERED LATER THIS MORNING YIELDING VFR.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOK LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD AS FAR AS THE FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED WITH MAIN
FEATURE BEING THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING US WITH A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE A DRY WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT IS ONGOING.

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. DID INCLUDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE AREA TODAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CONTINUED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION OR CAPPING. HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS
PROGGED TO INVADE THE REGION BY SATURDAY SO HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW FOR NOW. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS BREEZY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SRN TX WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE GRIDS/ZONES ARE RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE REGION
SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH ITS EVENTUAL PROGRESS A SOURCE OF
DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS. ATTM STILL LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
WASHING IT OUT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THERE`S ENOUGH ENERGY AND
SFC-BASED LIFT TO LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
RESUMES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY THEREAFTER. LONGER RANGE MODELS EACH SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD
BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...THUS HAVE JUST HELD ONTO 20 POPS FOR
NOW.

MARINE...SCA-CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE WRN WATERS ALSO
APPEAR TO HAVE A BRIEF SHOT OF POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY WIND REGIME LINGERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-02-2009, 09:22 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU HAS LOWERED CEILINGS THIS AM. CEILINGS RUNNING AROUND
008 INLAND WHILE TOWARDS THE COAST CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
030. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STRATOCU BLANKETED ALL BUT SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMNANT CIRRUS INCOMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM EARLIER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MCS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT LAYING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS. CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION MAINTAINING A RATHER MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

OUR FAIR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S WHILE OUR BALMY SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN MOVING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN TROF CURRENTLY ADVANCING ONTO
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. BULK OF RAINS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SPC CURRENTLY
CARRYING AREA IN DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. WILL

RAINS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF DECREASE
IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE THE NORM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. A COOL FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/southmissvly/Wx4_southmissvly.png

nightrider

05-02-2009, 11:50 AM

Did the guy at Skywarn class mention anything about how or who would activate spotters?

Joe-Nathan

05-02-2009, 12:42 PM

Did the guy at Skywarn class mention anything about how or who would activate spotters?

It will be released on the bottom with one of there severe weather statements. I do not think we are going to get a phone call or email. Althought that would be cool...

nightrider

05-02-2009, 08:12 PM

I figured that, but it would've been nice for him to mention. Guess maybe I was thinking about something else when he covered that.
How far do you live from Catfish Heaven?

Joe-Nathan

05-02-2009, 08:17 PM

About 10 minutes from Catfish Heaven. Just drove past there less than an hour ago. Took the back way from my parents house in north Lafayette.

nightrider

05-02-2009, 08:23 PM

Joe-Nathan

05-02-2009, 08:28 PM

I went there this morning with my youngest boy. They got me for $94. We had a good time and caught some nice fish. My wife flipped when my little boy ratted me out on the price. Oh well I've spent that many times going to the river to only come back with a couple of fish.

I isn't cheep, but the fun that the kids have is worth it. The size of the fish is perfect for frying! If you do not catch there you ain't fishing...

nightrider

05-02-2009, 09:03 PM

We had a good spot the people to our right and left were not catching anything, we caught 15 in about an hour. My little boy had a blast and so did I. Going to fry them Sunday evening and enjoy them with some mashed potatoes and corn.

Joe-Nathan

05-03-2009, 09:03 AM

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-005-009-019-025-029-033-037-039-041-047-053-055-063-
065-077-083-091-097-103-105-107-117-121-125-032000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0232.090503T1245Z-090503T2000Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

946 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM TYLER COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO AVOYELLES PARISHES. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$
GRIFFIN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRY
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$

Joe-Nathan

05-04-2009, 07:02 AM

Woke up to the NOAA radio this morning. Severe T-Storm pass by the house. Only 1/4" in the bucket though. 5 miles down the road, East, different story, wind and hail!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
713 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AT AEX AND ARA SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH ACADIANA.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS LATER DURING THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN. VFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TNITE WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS/CIG AT
AEX, IFR VIS PSBL AT LCH LATE TNITE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS APPROACHING
LAKE CHARLES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF
SE TX ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...MID 70S FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH STORM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. A LARGE SWATH OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SWATH EXTENDED INTO BEAUREGARD...
ALLEN...EVANGELINE...AVOYELLES...AND ST LANDRY PARISHES. THIS HAS
HELPED TO PUT SOME RIVER LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK INTO
FLOOD. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WILL ALSO START TO MOVE
TOWARDS FLOODING CONDITIONS ON AREA RIVERS.

THIS LATEST COOL FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE COAST WATERS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION THIS SYS HAS A UPPER LVL PUSH THAT SHOULD
ALLOW IT TO MAKE IT`S WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE
STALLING OUT LATER TODAY.

SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
LATE. CLOUDS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND INTO TOMORROW
AS THE FRONT BACKS TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-05-2009, 07:57 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-061115-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
CONSIDERABLE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...WITH ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN A THREAT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE...LEADING
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$

18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

.AVIATION...WEAK QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
PATCHY FOG LIMITING VIS TO 1 MILE AROUND LCH WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR
VIS SHOULD LIFT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS A MODERATE RETURN FLOW
GETS UNDERWAY. ALL SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH A FEW CB AROUND AEX, LFT AND ARA WITH
A CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 82F. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TNITE
WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PRECLUDE CIGS, VFR CONDITIONS TNITE.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY A FEW STORMS OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ARE MOVING INTO
MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE...THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS YESTERDAY IS BACKING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 70S WHILE THE LAKES REGION AND CNTRL LA
TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID 60S.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO CNTRL LOUISIANA WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES RISING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL LOUISIANA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA BY THIS EVENING
WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING ABOVE 70 ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS WHILE
UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED FOR CNTRL LA AND THE
LAKES REGION. THEREFORE...A WARM SUMMER LIKE NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.

K. KUYPER

&&

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/southmissvly/Wx4_southmissvly.png

Joe-Nathan

05-06-2009, 06:22 AM

Lot of activity in NW LA. Some disturbances might move into SW LA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WHILE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LEESVILLE TO MARKSVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
714 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

.AVIATION...MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS WITH NOCTURNAL SCUD AT FL020 OFF
THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-10 UNDER A VFR CIG
WITH AC ABOVE. WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 28 KNOTS DUE TO
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BREAKING UP. WINDS CONTINUE
DIMINISHING TNITE WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME LIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR VIS ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT IFR VIS ARA CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
FIRST OF WHAT WILL BE SEVERAL NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY MOVING OUR
WAY OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT EARLY EVENING FOR ACADIANA AIRPORTS.
WILL BET ON THE STRONG CAP PUTTING THE KABOSH TO THE TSTMS IN OUR
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AEX WHERE IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL WITH A WEAKER CAP.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
JET STREAK APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS
KICKED OFF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY NORTHEAST TO TOLEDO BEND. THE MAIN
ACTION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH A COUPLE OF MCS`S.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS POPS. WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EAST.
STILL SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST HALF. THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES COMING INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SUPPRESSION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AFTER TODAY.

THE NEXT FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THUS JUSTIFIES A LOW END POP.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING A BIT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERIODICALLY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP OUT WEST AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST.

BRAZZELL

&&

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/southmissvly/Wx1_southmissvly.png

Joe-Nathan

05-07-2009, 06:10 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
329 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

.DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WILL BE DETERMINING POPS ESPECIALLY WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF I10 AS MODELS SFC BASED CAPES PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE
LOW POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING THTE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20% PERCENT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH OR
BECOME DIFFUSE. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...APPROACH OF FRONT MAY BRING WEAK EASTERLY FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WILL HAVE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS. SCEC
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-08-2009, 06:11 AM

WARM, HUMID and CAP in effect = SUMMER LIKE PATTERN ALREADY!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. UNTIL THEN...RATHER WARM MID
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BY
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY MID WEEK
SO POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS APPROACH OF FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
TIGHTER TODAY SO WILL HAVE SCEC FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-11-2009, 06:20 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
653 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND A SURGE OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM AROUND LUFKIN TO NEAR
JASPER AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST MERGING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HOUSTON METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND STREET FLOODING
MAY OCCUR. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WILL
BE FAIRLY COMMON FOR AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF
THIS AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY DISSIPATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HEAT INDICIES RISING ABOVE 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AROUND LFT AND ARA. VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3 MILES MVFR AT LFT TO LIFR VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE AND VERTICAL
VISIBILITY AROUND 100 FEET AT ARA. ELSEHWERE...VISIBILITIES WERE
GENERALLY 5 MILES AND ABOVE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A BOUNDARY MAY SAG
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA`S CONVECTION RESULTING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
NEAR AEX. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CAPPING WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FEET. 06

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SFC...A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY REMAINS ACRS CNTRL MS/NRN LA/ERN TX
SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SIT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
IT. SKIES ACRS THE AREA HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE SFC FRONT LINGERING ACRS NRN/CNTRL LA. MODELS INDICATE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR...BUT
UNCERTAIN IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
TODAY...ENHANCED BY ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IS ACRS CNTRL LA INTO ERN TX...TAPERING TO SLT CHC ALONG
AND S OF I-10. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTN MAINLY FROM
THE LAKES AREA OF EAST TX EAST TOWARD CNTRL LA. DESPITE THE FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. SPC
HAS LOWERED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE THREAT OF
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SEVERE WEATHER ENTIRELY AS SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SRN PLAINS WILL PULL THE SFC
BOUNDARY NORTH TUESDAY AFTN WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCREASING POPS AT THIS
TIME TO MONITOR HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
RUNS. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...COULD SEE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-12-2009, 06:14 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE LAKES
AREA OF EAST TEXAS TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SUNDAY...FURTHER ENHANCING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
.AVIATION...

WARMER AIR OVERRIDING A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMATION. VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE FRONT RANGING FROM IFR TO
MVFR. CLOUD LEVELS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BETTER BEHAVED WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AEX AREA.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT RECEDES BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. STABLE AIR SHOULD MOVE BACK IN THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. 06

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT WITH UPPER ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR
INDICATING WEAK RIDGING OVER WRN TX AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN US.
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY QUIET TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS WHEN DISTURBANCES PRODUCED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED NEAR THE COAST...LOCATED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT
TO PATTERSON AS OF 08Z. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW
AIRMASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROVIDES INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS
NORTH...MAINLY FROM INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EAST TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST AND/OR HAIL
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ALOFT...THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BY THURSDAY...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH CAP WEAKENING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AGAIN
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...REMAINING MAINLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE YESTERDAY...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME...UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH GFS AND
EURO WANT TO MOVE THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY MONDAY WHICH IS QUITE
UNUSUAL FOR MAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SYSTEM AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. SHOULD CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...EXPECT DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET. NO SCEC OR SCA
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

nightrider

05-12-2009, 06:35 AM

Sunday looking good.

Joe-Nathan

05-13-2009, 06:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...MVFR FOG CONTINUES TO AFFECT KAEX THIS
MORNING WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. KLFT
AND KARA MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG FROM 12Z-13Z BUT ALL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTERWARD. VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN/CNTRL TX AND OK. AT THE
SFC...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PULLED BACK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACRS ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AS CAP WEAKENS AND THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST. DEEPENING MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FM TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING.

BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FM CANADA TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN
CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...AND INTO THE NWRN GULF BY EARLY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOLUTION...LENDING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. STILL HAVE A FEW CONCERNS ON TIMING AS
MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

TODAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70. HIGH TEMPS WILL
TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS INCREASE WHILE LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. BY MONDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW TEMPS NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOONS AND DRIER AIR PROVIDING A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET. NO SCEC OR
SCA FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-14-2009, 06:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...MCS ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA CONTINUES
WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MCS WILL COMPLETELY FALL APART BEFORE
IT REACHES KAEX BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AIRPORT LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AREA
AIRPORTS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF TODAY.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING
AND IMPACT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. FOR TODAY...AREA 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT CIN
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR
TODAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY LOWER ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LARGER EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...THINK THAT AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ADVERTISED. AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY QUITE
RAPIDLY SO KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...HAD SOME REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE SCEC OFFSHORE FROM
CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND. THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE WINDS AT SCA THRESHOLDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY. WINDS
ARE FORECASTED TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-15-2009, 07:42 AM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
A LAKE CHARLES TO TOLEDO BEND DAM LINE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. A COOL FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.AVIATION...
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 06Z FORECAST. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS NOTED ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...SO I HAVE INSERTED VCSH
FOR ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THOUGH FOR THE MOMENT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BY LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT KLCH-KLFT-KARA TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING IN OFF THE
GULF...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS POINT. ONE WE GET INTO MID
MORNING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARISHES. GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT MORNING
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...RAIN CHANCES ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

CONTINUED WARM THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WIND
SHIFT ACTUALLY FORECAST TO PASS WELL INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LATE SEASON FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION FORECAST IN ITS WAKE...AND THUS TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE 70S ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
GUIDANCE INDICATES CHANCE FOR POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
FOR A WHILE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

BEYOND MONDAY...WHILE THE GUIDANCE IN DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 CONTINUE TO
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
FLORIDA AND WHETHER AND HOW MUCH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IT
WILL HAVE...THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT IS TO KEEP A DEEPENING
SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS A RESULT STIFF OFF SHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION AND
THUS LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL AND
HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CONTINENTAL INFLUENCE.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS FORECAST TO RELAX AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY FOR TUESDAY...THEN FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA.

&&

nightrider

05-15-2009, 01:40 PM

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Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
2 products issued by NWS for: Broussard LA
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Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

LAZ043>045-052>055-152200-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...

AT 1245 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. THESE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM THE MORGAN CITY
POLICE DEPARTMENT AND AIR LOGISTICS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

nightrider

05-15-2009, 01:41 PM

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Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

LAZ043>045-052>055-152200-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...

AT 1245 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. THESE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM THE MORGAN CITY
POLICE DEPARTMENT AND AIR LOGISTICS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.[/QUOTE]

nightrider

05-16-2009, 04:59 AM

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-162115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
501 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATERSPOUTS.

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND DO NOT REACH
THE GROUND...AND TYPICALLY FORM WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND REACHES THE
GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED.

WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND FORM UNDERNEATH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
LAKES...BAYS...AND WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WATERSPOUTS CAN BE DANGEROUS TO BOATS...AND MARINERS SHOULD MOVE
AWAY FROM ANY WATERSPOUTS IF THEY ARE ENCOUNTERED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER

Joe-Nathan

05-18-2009, 06:19 AM

Man what a difference. Talk about the possible 'Low Pressure' in the discussion!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW WELL INTO THE
GULF WATERS...WITH POST FRONTAL STRATOCU CLEAR OF INLAND AREAS AND
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE 0-60NM MARINE ZONES. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS DEFINITELY HERE...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND CONTINUING
TO FALL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DONE ABOUT ALL ITS GOING TO DO FOR
US...THOUGH A CONTINENTAL FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP 3-5
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER IS FORESEEN...SO MILD AND THEN WARM SUNNY DAYS AND
COOL AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF THAT SENT THE FRONT
THROUGH US IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GULF...MERGING
WITH A PRE-EXISTING WEAKNESS OVER THE CUBA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WRAPPING UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CLEAR AT
THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON DEEPER MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE JUMP IN LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
ALSO THE REASON FOR THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AEX TO LFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THIS POINT...DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SFC LOW
BECOME MORE APPARENT AND MORE IMPORTANT. THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUE...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON
WHERE THIS GENESIS WILL OCCUR. IN ONE CAMP IS THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SREF MEAN...WHICH POINT TOWARD DEVELOPMENT IN
THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE BAHAMAS OR SOUTHEAST FL. IN THE OTHER IS THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS...WHICH FAVOR THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF. BY HOOK OR BY CROOK...IN THE END THEY ALL
WIND UP IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY THE WEEKEND...A SPREAD ROUGHLY FROM HOUMA LOUISIANA ON
THE FAR WEST END AND PANAMA CITY ON THE FAR EAST END. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN...INITIALLY COLD
CORE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK THROUGH...MARGINAL BUT NOT
UNFAVORABLE SSTS AND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN GULF...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD RESULT. INDEED...FSU MODEL PHASE ANALYSIS CHARTS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SYMMETRIC BUT SHALLOW WARM CORE LOW.

THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE BE ULTIMATELY
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK...THOUGH PRETTY MUCH ANY
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA WILL SPARE US THE WORST...WHICH WITH A
SYSTEM LIKE THIS IS TYPICALLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL SHOW ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS FROM THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND TRACKS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. KEPT MARINE HAZARDS AS I INHERITED THEM.

&&

WATER VAPER IMAGE FROM THIS MORNING. NOTE THE CLUSTER NORTH OF CUBA

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009138.1145_US_wv.jpg

Joe-Nathan

05-19-2009, 06:02 AM

ONCE AGAIN, TALK ABOUT A "LOW" ENTERING GOM AND MAKING LANDFALL IN LA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 13-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER S FL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MODERATELY TIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ONLY
MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER KBPT/KLCH/KLFT
/KARA TERMINALS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COOL MORNING FOR MAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 40S. NO WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80...AND TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME.

LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING PER LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THIS LOW IN
BOTH STRENGTH AND LOCATION WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS HAS A WEAK AND DIFFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ERRATICALLY AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...00Z ECMWF SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF AND ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MANY OF THE
OTHER TROPICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR
MAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GULF WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONES AT PRESENT.
THEREFORE..WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL TREND TOWARDS THE GFS IN THE MID-LONG RANGE AND BLEND
IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM
AND MAY SEND OUT A RECONNAISSANCE MISSION TO INVESTIGATE LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW...EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL TRANSPORT MUCH HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WELL AS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND RISING SEAS FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES ALONG OUR COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

COLOR INFRARED SAT IMAGE FROM THIS MORNING

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009139.1132_TPA_ir.jpg

Joe-Nathan

05-20-2009, 06:14 AM

Like you need to be told this:

Gale Warning

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NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR A MORE DETAILED
FORECAST WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COASTLINE...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
.SYNOPSIS...GALE CONDITIONS OVER NW WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1007 MB LOW PRES OFF SW FL AND 1031
MB HIGH PRES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL DIMINISH BY THU
MORNING. BROAD TROUGHING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS TROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ORGANIZED
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LINGER FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS S OF 27N
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.

SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
...GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 77W...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 28N W OF 77W E WINDS 30 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. N OF 26N E OF 69W NE TO E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT E OF 70W. W OF BAHAMAS SE
TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS W OF 67W.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N OF 25N W OF 68W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN E SWELL. N OF 25N E OF 68W E WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 74W SE TO S WINDS
10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. S OF 25N W OF 74W E TO SE WINDS E TO SE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 27N.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 70W E TO SE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N
E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL. FROM 22N TO
25N E OF 73W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE S
OF 25N SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT E OF BAHAMAS...AND
1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W
OF 77W...AND OVER SE PART.
.SAT AND SUN...N OF 28N W OF NE TO E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
15 KT...AND TO E TO SE 5 TO 10 KT SUN...EXCEPT FAR NE PART N TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
SUN...EXCEPT FAR NE PART 5 TO 7 FT. FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 71W E
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 28N SE TO S WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT FAR OVER FAR E PART S TO SW
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL E OF
BAHAMAS...AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TSTMS E PART...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW PART.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
.SYNOPSIS...A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 25N83W WILL SLOWLY MOVE W ALONG
25N REACHING 85W THIS EVENING...88W THU EVENING...AND 91W FRI
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE
PRESSURE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
GMZ080-201530-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
.TODAY TROUGH THU NIGHT...E OF 93W N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. W OF 93W NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
SPREADING INTO E PART.
.FRI AND SAT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT W OF 95W
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT LATE SAT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E OF
93W... SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT W OF 93W LATE SAT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS E PART.
.SUN...E OF 93W W TO NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT FAR N PART
N TO NE 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. W OF 93W WINDS BECOMING SE TO S
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E PART..

MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
...GALE WARNING N OF 27N...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 35
KT...EXCEPT 30 TO 40 KT E OF 86W...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT
EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10
FT LATE TONIGHT. FROM 24N TO 27N N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND BECOMING S WINDS E OF
LOW CENTER. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. S OF 24N N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
SHIFTING W TO NW TONIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N OF 28N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7
TO 10 FT. WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6
TO 7 FT.
.FRI...N OF 28N E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. WITHIN 90
NM OF LOW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE SE TO S
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 25N. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...N OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. S
OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
...GALE WARNING N OF 27N...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 40
KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT LATE TONIGHT. FROM 25N TO 27N N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT TONIGHT. S OF 25N S TO
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TONIGHT N OF 24N.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 35
KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 28N LATE FRI. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT FRI. S OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. S OF
28N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF
28N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RATHER WEAK TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRI. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER FRI THROUGH SUN INCREASING TRADES IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC.

NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...S OF 19N E OF 80W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15
KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT...EXCEPT NW PORTION 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL...SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 6 FT WED NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N E OF
80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS NW PART.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S OF 18N E OF 81W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FAR NW PART 3 TO 5 FT IN N SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASING NW PART.
.SAT AND SUN...W OF 85W SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. E OF 85W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N PART.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NERLY WINDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE NE U.S.
COAST...WITH THE SW LEG OF IT STILL RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
HELPING THIS RIDGING IS THE NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (SFC
AND ALOFT) ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF
THE TWO HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING UN-SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATION OF THE COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE NON TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST
TONIGHT INTO THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. BEING THAT THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THIS SFC
SYSTEM...ITS CHANCES OF ACQUIRING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...ITS STILL BRING STRONG WINDS
OF SCA TO LOW END GALE OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE NE U.S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE REGION...ONLY LOW END SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OFF THE SC LA COAST...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH LESS EXPECTED
OVER SE TX...FOR THU THRU MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE SHRA/TSRA
DISTRIBUTION FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND BECOME LESS CONFIDENT...AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SFC TROF/WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THUS...ONLY TWEAKED THE INHERITED
POPS...KEEPING THE HIGHEST OVER C AND SC LA...GRADUALLY DECREASING
FURTHER WEST OF THE LOW. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S EXPECTED THU MORNING...WITH UPPER 60S/NEAR 70S
EXPECTED BY MEMORIAL DAY.

DML

MARINE...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. A NON
TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

DML

&&

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009140.1132_TPA_ir.jpg

Joe-Nathan

05-21-2009, 06:14 AM

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gale Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

PASCAGOULA TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM

GMZ550-212130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
400 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...

.OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A NON
A NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MOST LIKELY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

GMZ475-212100-
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-090522T1800Z/
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
409 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET...THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER
CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE NON TROPICAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (SFC AND ALOFT) ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
...WITH MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA STILL OVER FL AND BAHAMAS. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...TEMPS ARE ABOUT 15+ DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING...AS
THE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SE LA
BY SAT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON TROPICAL...AS THE MID/UPPER
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SFC. THUS THE CHANCES OF
ACQUIRING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...THE NW FRINGES OF THE WINDFIELD IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE SC LA COAST...SEE MARIN DISCUSSION BELOW.

AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS LA...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FROM SE TO NW OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE OVER C AND SC LA...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER SE TX. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER SE TX...LOWER/MID 80S OVER C AND SC LA DUE
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.

BY TUE AND WED...LINGERING MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY 20%-30% AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LOW TEMPS UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S DURING THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
THE NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SAT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 20 KTS...AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET (MAINLY IN SE SWELLS) BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE
BROAD LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SE LA BY FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL RELAX
BELOW SCA...WITH SEAS TO SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.

DML

&&

The humidity has returned!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009141.1145_US_wv.jpg

Joe-Nathan

05-22-2009, 05:58 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
531 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 11 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES FROM
HAN**** COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF AROUND TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR RED RIVER LANDING...BATON ROUGE AND DONALDSONVILLE. MINOR
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR MORGAN
CITY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND ONSHORE SATURDAY. IT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
55...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEW ORLEANS...BILOXI AND GULFPORT.
STORM TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
SIX INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES FROM
HAN**** COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE TIDES AROUND TWO
FEET ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY AND INLAND SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PILE
WATER ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND FURTHER INCREASE TIDES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO
IMPACT AREAS SURROUNDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS...AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

...TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE AREAS
SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LOWER LAFOURCHE. TIDES ARE
CURRENTLY 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THESE HIGH TIDE LEVELS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD CENTER OF THE NON TROPICAL SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF KMOB...BEGINNING
TO DRIFT NW THIS MORNING. ALOFT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 200 MILES FURTHER NNW OF THE SFC CENTER. ACROSS OUR REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS 20-60NM SOUTH OF CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN BRINGING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SE LA BY
THIS TIME ON SAT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON TROPICAL...AS
THE MID/UPPER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN OUT WITH TIME...BUT
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC CENTER. THUS THE CHANCES OF ACQUIRING
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN LOW.

AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS LA...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER INCREASE FROM SE TO NW OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER OF MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SAT. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL STILL BE OVER C AND
SC LA...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER SE TX. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S/NEAR 70...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER SE TX...LOWER/MID
80S OVER C AND SC LA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE.

AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INLAND AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENS SUN THRU TUE...THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER BROADEN OVER THE
REGION...THUS KEEPING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BY WED AND THU...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WITH LESS LIFT ALOFT. THIS SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST 20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
THE WESTERN CIRCULATION OF THE NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING NE WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS. WHILE MSAS ESTIMATED WINDS ARE NOT QUITE SCA
CRITERIA...SE SWELLS OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
THE OUTER REACHES OF THE 20-60NM ZONE OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
10 AM THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE BROAD CENTER APPROACHES SE LA.

DML

&&

MAPS:
WIND GUST:
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/southmissvly/WindGust1_southmissvly.png

WAVE HEIGHTS:
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/southmissvly/WaveHeight1_southmissvly.png

IR SAT:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009142.1133_GOM_ir.jpg

Joe-Nathan

05-23-2009, 07:23 AM

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
503 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN FALLING TO NORMAL LEVELS LATER TODAY AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING.

...TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING...

LAKE LEVELS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING WHICH
MAY INUNDATE BOAT LAUNCH AREAS AND ACCESS ROADS TO THE LAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI OR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTLINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-TROPICAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS PRIOR TO MOVING ASHORE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ON OUR
REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. AS WE GET INTO THE WORK
WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY ARE
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR TWO PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
727 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...LIFTING INTO MVFR AND LOWER VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING MAX HEATING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009/DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE N-CNTL GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE
NERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. REGIONAL 88DS ONLY SHOW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OCCURRING TO THE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
THERE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ONGOING.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS PACKAGE IS ONCE AGAIN THE EVENTUAL
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE
SYSTEM ASHORE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH
THE NAM SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER NRLY MOTION THEREAFTER. STAYED
CLOSER TO A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH THEIR MORE
CONSISTENT MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. BIG QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL MODEL QPFS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
RAIN AHEAD AND EAST OF THE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF ITS LIFETIME. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND
EXPECT MORE OF PRECIP TO FINALLY WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER
IN THE SHORT TERM STILL EXPECTING MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
EAST AND NORTH...AND THUS TOOK A CHANCE AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY/TONIGHT BACK TO ONLY THE CHANCE RANGE WITH
HIGHEST POPS ERN 1/3 TODAY AND NERN CORNER TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY ATTM
NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCHES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO ARKANSAS AND
A GOOD SRLY LOW-LEVEL FETCH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT AREAWIDE AND WENT WITH A BLANKET
50 POP FOR EVERYONE. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK WE GET BACK
INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
LINGERING AND CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. KEPT POPS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE MORE SRLY WINDS
FEEDING INTO THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

MARINE...AS EXPECTED CURRENTLY SEEING STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ERN WATERS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW CENTER. HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE
STILL WELL BELOW ANY CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO FLAGS ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. MAINLY LIGHT SRLY FLOW EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-24-2009, 06:33 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE WEAKENING. BY TUESDAY...RAIN
CHANCES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
358 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER W-CNTL MISSISSIPPI NEAR GREENWOOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS LOW REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH WHOLE
SYSTEM PUSHING NWWD TOWARD SERN ARKANSAS. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER. OF INTEREST THOUGH IS A FEEDER BAND TYPE OF FEATURE
WRAPPING INTO THE STORM FROM ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE ALL THE
WAY INTO SERN MISSISSIPPI AND AROUND THROUGH ALABAMA INTO THE
PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF THE CENTER. STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
FRISKY ALONG THIS BAND IN MOISTURE-RICH AREA OF GOOD CONVERGENCE.
BUT ELSEWHERE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA PRECIP IS BASICALLY NIL ATTM.

PRIMARY FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW
AND ITS EFFECTS (OR RELATIVE LACK THEREOF) ON THE FORECAST AREA.
ALL SHORT-RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE LOW WNWWD INTO
ARKANSAS TODAY BEFORE GENERALLY MEANDERING AROUND AND EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE CENTER
SINCE ITS ARRIVAL ONSHORE YESTERDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
HOWEVER OBSERVED 00Z AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
OUR MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL LINGER. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHICH
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE STUCK WITH INHERITED
GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. BROUGHT THE POPS
FOR THIS EVENING BACK TO LOW END CHANCE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
LACK OF GOOD FOCUS MECHANISMS. MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING AND A LITTLE FARTHER
FROM THE AREA HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WE LINGER IN A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND MESO BOUNDARIES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS HAVE HELD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR EACH DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH NIGHT. LONGER RANGE
MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER MAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUESS WE`LL SEE...

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED ATTM WITH MAINLY A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AND LINGERING.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-25-2009, 09:13 AM

THANK YOU TO ALL THOSE THAT HAVE AND ARE CURRENTLY SERVING.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
449 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNDER DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ON AREA TIDAL
LAKES AND BAYS...
A VERY UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS WILL BE IN BANDS OR CLUSTERS AND WILL BE CONDUCIVE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL AS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE NORTH AT 15 KNOTS. WATERSPOUTS NEAR SHORE MAY
APPROACH OR MOVE ONTO THE NEAR SHORE AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP A VIGILANT EYE ON THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED. IF WATERSPOUTS ARE
SIGHTED...NAVIGATE AT RIGHT ANGLES AWAY FROM THE DIRECTION OF
THE SPOUT`S MOVEMENT. WATERSPOUTS ARE CAPABLE OF CAPSIZING WATER
CRAFT. ENSURE ALL ON BOARD ARE WEARING APPROVED PERSONAL FLOTATION
DEVICES WHILE ON THE WATER TODAY.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECTING ONE MORE DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. WIND
PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR BECOMES TEMPORARILY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION IN THE MID LEVELS. A COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CALCASIEU PASS. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS EASTERN LOUISIANA.
ELSEWHERE... AREAS OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR SE TX AND SRN LA TODAY WITH CEILING
LOWERING AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR TSTM ACTVTY.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH INTO ACADIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY
MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. FURTHER CONVECTION FIRING UP DEEPER IN THE COASTAL
WATERS ALONG MEAN TROF AXIS.

MAP ANALYSIS SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING OVER
ARKANSAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMING IN AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES
TODAY....THIS NEAR 40 PERCENT ABOVE THE NORM.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TODAY YIELDING LIKELY AND IN LINE WITH HIGHER
MOS NUMBERS. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH NO CAP...TRIGGER TEMPS
BEING MET...LOW LFC`S TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW GENERATED CONVECTION AND
FURTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING ALL COMBINED SUGGEST LIKELY
IN ORDER. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE ORDER OF ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

RAIN CHANCES FALL BACK INTO LINE TO MORE SEASONABLE POPS FOR MID-
WEEK AS ARKANSAS LOW TREKS NORTH AND PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROF ALLOWING FOR MODEST RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DEEPENING
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

MARINE...A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES. A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-26-2009, 06:14 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE COASTAL PARISHES
OF ST MARY AND IBERIA. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 15
MPH.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BURN-OFF AROUND 13Z
WILL LOW CEILINGS FOR LCH AND BPT. A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING ST MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES. EXPECTING
VFR WEATHER ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD COMING OFF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS. SURFACE OBS INDICATING SOME LIGHT
FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING
INTO THE REGION AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROF LEFT IN WAKE OF LOW NOW
OVER MISSOURI SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
EXITING TROF AND LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH CONUS RIDGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
TODAY...WHILE SEEING PROJECTED TRIGGER TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES.
HENCE WILL BE CARRYING LOWER POPS THAN MEMORIAL DAY. WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NORTH AS LATEST NAM/WRF INDICATING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OUT OF TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
LOUISIANA LATE IN THE DAY.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS COOL FRONT APPROACHES AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER LESS HUMID AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING.

MARINE...A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL A WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-27-2009, 06:19 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM WINDS
AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
715 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.AVIATION...SHALLOW GROUND FOG LIFTING TO TEMPO PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VLIFR CIG/VIS BURNING OFF TO
VFR BY 14Z. ACADIANA TERMINALS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AROUND MID-DAY
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. VCTS BEFORE NOON FOR BPT
AND AROUND NOON LOCAL TIME FOR ACADIANA TERMINALS WITH A FEW CBS
ELSEWHERE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED EARLY. A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE MVFR VIS IN FOG.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING
IS KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO SE TX AND SW LA LATER TODAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FROM WINDS AND HAIL.

THIS LATEST FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE STALLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWER DEW POINTS
WILL HELP TO HOLD DOWN THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

05-28-2009, 06:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PUSHING A COOL
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
THE GOOD NEWS IS DRIER NORTHERLY AIR WILL LOWER THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE.

DIRER AIR WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON NORTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS BECOMING EAST AND FINALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE
SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL THEN SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED.

THE NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-01-2009, 07:03 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WILL LEND TO VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT VISBYS NO LOWER THAN 4 SM...IMPROVING BY 14Z.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINING SCT AROUND 4-5 KFT...THEN DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS TO BECOME LT/VRBL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009/
SYNOPSIS...

THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST THROUGH GEORGIA TO ACROSS LOUISIANA...
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS.

FURTHER SOUTH...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...DIFFUSING UPON APPROACHING
BROWNSVILLE. THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...ADVANCING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS
SPLIT THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
STREAMING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS TEXAS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE PROPAGATING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO ACROSS LOUISIANA.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHARP RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DEEPENS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...THE GULF RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED...ITS
ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT RECENT MIDWEST AIR...
MODIFYING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...NORTHWARD. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOUT SEASONAL.

FOR TONIGHT...GULF STRATUS WILL RETURN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AS THE RETURN FLOW PERSISTS. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE RETURN FLOW IS WEAKER.

FOR TUESDAY...ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS PASSING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES LIFT AIR THAT IS SLOWLY
DE-STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GULF WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL INDUCE
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. THE ATTENDANT WAVE
CYCLONE WILL TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AS
THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES BREAKDOWN...BEING REPLACED BY MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. SEE SHARP
RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.

THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM WITH THESE
COLORADO SHORTWAVES...DEPICTING GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PURPORTED FAVORABLE SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THESE COLORADO SHORTWAVES
COULD ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS AUTHOR IS UNCOMFORTABLE
MENTIONING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-02-2009, 06:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.AVIATION...
WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES
FROM NEAR PATTERSON TO BEAUMONT...DELINEATING WEAK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A FOCUS
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS MORNING
AS INDICATED BY KLCH 88D. INCLUDED VCSH FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AREAWIDE BY 15-16Z. IN ADDITION...SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KAEX AND KLCH
(WHERE A QUICK STEP OUTSIDE INDICATED SOME SMOKE WAS MIXED IN).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCTS AT TAF SITES...BUT MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE (AND THUS NEED TO
ADD A PROB OR TEMPO GROUP) AT KLFT AND KARA LATER TODAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST-TO-WEST ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST LATER TODAY...WASHING OUT BY WEDNESDAY.

A MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
JUST BEFORE NOON ON THURSDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST. SEVERAL PACIFIC SHORTWAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CUT-OFF...ARE PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH DESERT MEXICO TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW. THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIVERTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE...BEFORE EMERGING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE...TRAVELING SOUTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...ADVECTING GULF AIR WILL ASCEND SLANTWISE UPON ENCOUNTERING
THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON...AS PASSING PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES AUGMENT THE GENTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPGLIDING
(OR SLANTWISE ASCENDING) GULF AIR.

DESPITE THE ABOVE REASONING...CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S FORECAST IS
LOW...DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GFS GUIDANCE. THE GFS DEPICTS A GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM...ITS
SIZE ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM INDUCES FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...VICINITY THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CONSEQUENTLY...I WILL RELY ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE RAIN CHANCES
AND THE WIND SPEED AND WIND DIRECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CEASE. THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLANTWISE ASCENDING GULF AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WILL BE THE APPEARANCE OF SHORTWAVES
EMANATING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE MORE FAVORABLE
WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO SHORTWAVES MAY ORGANIZE
THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ONCE AGAIN REMAINS LOW...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEM. THE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM...ITS SIZE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

A MIDWEST HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE POST FRONTAL STRATUS (OR WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS) WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-03-2009, 06:11 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND/OR
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELIEST THREATS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST.
STORMS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009
.AVIATION...

FOR THE 03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CURRENTLY...SOME PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING AT KAEX/KLCH/KBPT TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING. WITH MAX HEATING AND LEFT OVER SMALL-SCALE
BOUNDARIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON AND HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM
ROUGHLY 18Z TO 22Z AT ALL TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH FOR SHOWERS TO RE-
DEVELOP AND WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER 04/08Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
UPPER ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW CWA BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER
OVER CNTRL TX. THESE SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...FURTHER TO
THE WEST...A DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA WITH KLCH 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATING PW OF 1.8 INCHES...UP FROM 1.2 INCHES MONDAY
NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WAS
RIDGING ACRS THE SERN STATES INTO LA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED ACRS NE TX INTO SE OK WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW
TOWARD CNTRL TX. WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM ACRS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THREE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF DISTURBANCE
EAST OF THE AREA. TO THE WEST...A DECAYING MCS IS MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SE TX. NORTH OF THIS...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING EAST OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE
COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA. FOR THIS MORNING...WHAT WAS
ONCE OF SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BREAKING UP QUICKLY AS IT
APPROACHES A TRINITY TO HOUSTON LINE. THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MORE STORMS
LATER THIS MORNING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE GULF SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP A SFC REFLECTION LATER
TODAY NEAR THE SE LA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE INTO THE SERN
STATES. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SOUTH CNTRL LA BEGINNING THIS
MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...THE
LOW OVER SE OK WILL BE PULLED EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES
ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BY THE AFTN.

AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTN...BUT...LIKE
YESTERDAY...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS THE LIKELIEST THREATS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AFTER
06Z...AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT GAIN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER
THAN NORMAL AFTNS AND MORNING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BRIEFLY ON
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

That is a big 'blob' in the Northern GOM:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009154.1132_GOM_ir.jpg

Joe-Nathan

06-04-2009, 06:12 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED THIS MORNING AT THE KAEX/KLFT/KARA TAF
SITES WITH IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BY
MID-MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS LESSENED THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RISK FOR STORMS. WILL ONLY HAVE A MENTION OF VICINITY STORMS AT THE FAR
EASTERN TAF SITES (KAEX/KLFT/KARA) THIS AFTERNOON...AS DECENT
MOISTURE HANGS IN THAT AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
LARGESCALE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE 4-CORNERS
REGION OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER AIR SOUNDING WERE RELATIVELY MOIST
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LCH SOUNDING AROUND 1.85 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILES AT KPOE AND KLCH ALREADY
SHIFTING WEST AND NORTHWEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO FALLING MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE..THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE
AREA FROM TEXARKANA SOUTHWEST TO COLLEGE STATION. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WINDS WERE ALREADY WEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS THE MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENT HAS
TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST ACOSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS OF LOUISIANA. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND BEGINS TO PICK UP SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOUISIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A VERY NICE DAY
ON FRIDAY AS SKIES CLEAR WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ENTERS THE AREA. AGAIN...VERY NICE WEATHER TO END THE
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RAIN MAY
RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP
PUSH UP RAIN CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH BEFORE WASHING OUT. RIGHT NOW...WOULD
BE SURPRISED IF IT GOT TO LAKE CHARLES IF AT ALL.

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-05-2009, 06:10 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EARLY MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER
WEST TEXAS IS ALSO STREAMING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST RIDGES DOWN INTO
THE REGION...WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING IN DEW POINT READINGS THE RESULT.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WEATHER-WISE ON THIS FRIDAY. CLOUDINESS AT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK-UP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO THIN AS CONVECTION OVER WEST
TEXAS DIMINISHES. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY JUNE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING LOWER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITY VALUES.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS...SHOULD MAKE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5F TO 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS
AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.

NO RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER OLD MEXICO GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUT A LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE
AND SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO RETURN.

AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO HANG ON FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION...AND THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE LIKE THE SUMMER MUGGIES WITH HEAT INDICES BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100F.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WINDS OVER THE OUTER WESTERN ZONES ARE CLOSE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. THESE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-08-2009, 06:07 AM

Heat indices in the 100 by end of week!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 591DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER OUR
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
RIDGE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN SOME
ORIENTATION OVER OUR CWA. THIS PROMPTS A HOT AND HUMID BUT DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR ON TAP. APPEARS THE ONLY POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIP THIS WEEK WILL BE ON THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. ASSOCIATED MCS
DEVELOPMENT MAY MAKE A RUN FOR OUR NORTHERN BORDER BUT BULK OF ANY
RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA. SUMMER HAS
DEFINITELY ARRIVED!

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING
DRY ONSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-09-2009, 06:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING TO TEMPO MVFR/IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR
ANOTHER OUR OR TWO BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...

HOT HUMID AND DRY. THAT ABOUT SUMS UP THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A STRONG
592DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT 500MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF YET STIFLE
ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. DID SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP YESTERDAY MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY ALTHOUGH NO OTHER MODELS AGREE. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TODAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THUS WITH THIS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH DEWPOINTS NOW AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE OVER 100
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
EXPECTED.

Joe-Nathan

06-10-2009, 06:16 AM

THERE IS A DOME OVER SW LA & SE TX. WE MIGHT GET SOME PRECIP ON THURSDAY NIGHT, MIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...TRANSIENT LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC CAUSING SOME
GRIEF THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOG MAY LINGER IN A FEW AREAS AFTER 12Z...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WEAKENING THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ENTER NORTHERN SECTION OF
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT DURING
THAT TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL MARINE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-11-2009, 06:26 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGELY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 06Z FORECAST SINCE I DID NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM IT. ONLY CHANGE OF
NOTE WAS TO DROP THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND A LOOK OUTSIDE BOTH INDICATING MUCH LESS CU
THIS MORNING THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A LATE MORNING
CU FIELD IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT WILL PREVAIL AT VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/
UPDATE...GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH 373.
DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN TX/LA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF MCS HAVE MOVED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MISS
OUT ON RAIN FROM THESE SYSTEMS. NOCTURNAL MCS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT AND AT THIS TIME THINK THAT SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERTSORM ACTIVITY MAY REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW POPS IN THE NORTHERN
PARISHES/COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM PROG THE BOUNDARY TO
LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-12-2009, 05:47 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND SETTLES OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS NO RAIN...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (+3 TO +5).

THE GOOD NEWS IS THE DEWPOINTS...WHILE IN THE LOWER 70S...DO NOT GET
HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE EXTREME HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ONLY
GETTING TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK OR MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THAT
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER...AND WORKING
OUTDOORS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

MARINE WISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THANKS TO THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.

LONG-RANGE WEATHER MODELS SHOW OUR REGION IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER. WITH MOST OF THE
REGION ALREADY IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITION...WE WILL BE MONITORING
THE POSSIBILITY OF US RETURNING TO AT LEAST A MODERATE DROUGHT BY
THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-15-2009, 06:14 AM

ONLY WARNINGS ARE FOR THE MISS. RIVER BEING AT FLOOD STAGE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE RULES YET AGAIN THIS MORNING AS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ERN GULF. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE NWRN GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CNTL CONUS. THE RESULT IS CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS/FORECASTS THIS GO ROUND
AS THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...HOWEVER GOOD CAPPING INDUCED BY
THE RIDGE WILL DOOM ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS THE REMOVAL OF POPS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AS ALL OF
THE LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGING HOLDING
STEADY.

&&

.MARINE...AS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WE ARE SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE WRN WATERS...AND EXPECT THESE TO
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-16-2009, 06:21 AM

SO WE ARE STUCK IN A RUT. TOMORROW WILL BE TWO WEEKS W/O RAIN!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES FROM BEFORE AS PERSISTENCE RULES. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ERN GULF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SRN PLAINS. THE RESULT
IS CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS MORNING.

MINOR TWEAKS AT BEST TO THE GOING GRIDS/FORECASTS THIS GO ROUND
AS THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...HOWEVER GOOD CAPPING INDUCED BY
THE RIDGE WILL DOOM ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WE ARE SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE WRN WATERS...AND EXPECT THESE TO
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-17-2009, 06:23 AM

GOOD NEWS: THE GFS IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING/WEAKENING STARTING IN ONE WEEK(WED).

NOW THE BAD NEWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
613 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW LVL CLOUDS RACING NORTH THIS AM...AS HIGH PRES AT SFC AND
ALOFT WILL HOLD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. VFR WX WILL CONT
THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS TO LOW PRESSURE THROUGH WEST TEXAS. ORIENTATION OF
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS MAINTAINING A CONTINUOUS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION. CONVERSELY ALOFT...EXPANDING LOW PRESSURE
IS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDING A STRONGLY
SUBSIDING AND DRY CONVECTIVE CAPPING AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING ZONES AND GRIDS WITH PERSISTENCE ONCE
AGAIN DOMINATING THIS FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE WELL
ON MAINTAINING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A SIMILAR POSITION
INTO THE COMING NEW WEEK. THUS DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WILL SEE
HOT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...RATHER WARM AT NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS REMAIN NO WORSE THAN MODERATE AS DIURNAL
MIXING HOLDS THIS FEATURE DOWN KEEPING HEAT INDEXES AT GENERALLY NO
MORE THAN 100 DESPITE THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETROGRADING OF LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NEW
WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WESTWARD RETREATING HIGH AND TRAILING TROF MAY GIVE SOME HOPE FOR
RAINS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME TOO SOON TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF POPS.

TROPICS REMAIN QUIET.

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-18-2009, 07:03 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING MOVING NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FALL APART
AND LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MAINTAINING A
MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. ABOVE THIS...A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTING CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME LIGHT
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT A FEW SITES.

EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER MISSISSIPPI HIGH
MEANDERING IN A SIMILAR POSITION. RAIN CHANCES THUS NIL...WITH HOT
DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS REMAINING THE RULE.

EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A BREAKDOWN OF THIS
PATTERN MOVING INTO MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING
HIGH TO RETROGRADE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROF DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SPIKE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING
IN WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A BACK-DOOR TROF ROTATING ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE THUS GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED OUR FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN
THAT WE`VE SEEN IN SOME TIME...ALBEIT SMALL. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE
RETROGRADING OF RIDGE AND WESTERN MIGRATION OF TROF ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF WATERS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING NEW
WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-19-2009, 07:40 AM

PLEASE NOTE THAT I WILL NOT BE AVAILIABLE TO UPDATE THIS THREAD UNITL I RETURN FROM SUMMER VACATION ON JUNE 29TH.
THANK YOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.AVIATION...
CU THIS AM IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR WX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...TO LOW PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THUS BEING MAINTAINED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...500 MILLIBAR HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPANSIVE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE
FOR MAINTAINING OUR EXTENDED DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH ANY RAINS
WELL DISPLACED FROM THE FORECAST AREA AT THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO FOG DEVELOPMENT YET AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT AND VERY SHORT-LIVED.

FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND GRIDS. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MAINTAINING
AN EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE CAP. HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS AHEAD. WILL
MENTION AGAIN THAT DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING REASONABLY LOW THAT
EXCESSIVE HEAT INDEXES HAVE NOT COME INTO PLAY.

WILL KEEP OUR LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR TREND OF
RETROGRADING HIGH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MID-WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROFS JUST OFF EACH COAST YIELDING A QUASI OMEGA TYPE
PATTERN. INITIAL BUT MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AS BACK-DOOR TYPE TROF MIGRATES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MOST RESIDENTS WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINS BUT
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE CHANCES ARE SLIM AND THUS CARRYING NO MORE
THAN MINIMAL POPS AS A GOOD SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION. SORRY. LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR HAS ENTIRE AREA
IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT STEP UP FROM THIS IS A MODERATE
DROUGHT.

TROPICS REMAIN QUIET.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING NEW
WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-28-2009, 10:39 AM

VERY HOT W/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. IN
ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTREME HEAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SE FLA COAST
IS RIDGING ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT SWRLY WINDS ACRS THE
AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES NOTED AGAIN THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POPPING UP OFF THE
SOUTH CNTRL LA COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME RESPITE FROM THE HEAT AND DRY
WEATHER IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE NWRLY FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SOME ISOLATED AFTN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS EXTREME SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS AFTN TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 90S OR AROUND 100 OVER INLAND
AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING NEAR 70 DURING THE AFTN...DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT-
ENDING RAINS ARE EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF FROM THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA
AND THE LAKES AREA OF TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW TEMPS.

NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CHANCES OF ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NWRN GULF WILL
NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM COULD SURGE NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALL ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN A WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FLUCTUATES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

Joe-Nathan

06-29-2009, 07:26 AM

WAAHOO!!!!! 40%!!!!!!! WAAHOO!!!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKING AT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS HAS FLATTENED AND BECOME A LITTLE
MORE ELONGATED...AS NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES IMPINGING ON IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOCAL RADARS SHOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON THE 29/00Z KLCH SOUNDING OVER 2 INCHES.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY
WITH PWAT REMAINING OVER 2 INCHES. NORTHERLY FLOW AT 70H AND 50H IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRONTAL
TROUGH TO SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...WOULD
EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AND MOVE INLAND. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD BE A FOCUS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 190 AND
I-10 CORRIDORS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO...WITH THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IF MERGERS BETWEEN SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM
BOTH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR.

DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST NEAR THE COAST.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...70H HIGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING
DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS INLAND. THEREFORE...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
ON THE FOURTH OF JULY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

&&

ROLLTIDE

06-29-2009, 05:34 PM

WUUS54 KLCH 292219
SVRLCH
LAC001-045-053-055-099-101-113-292315-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0130.090629T2219Z-090629T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW IBERIA...JEANERETTE...AVERY
ISLAND...
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. MARTINVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RAYNE...MERMENTAU...CROWLEY...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JENNINGS...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ST. MARTINVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF JENNINGS AND
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JEANERETTE.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NEW IBERIA BY 535 PM CDT...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LYDIA BY 550 PM CDT...
JEANERETTE BY 610 PM CDT...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHARENTON AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALDWIN BY
615 PM CDT...

THESE ARE A DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

ROLLTIDE

06-30-2009, 03:26 AM

SkyWarn Training Schedule

by NWS Forecast Office

Slidell, Louisiana
Severe Weather/Storm Spotter - Training Sessions

Basic SkyWarn Training Session

Sky Warn training session at Baton Rouge listed below has been postponed until a later date this summer
Please check this web page late for updated times. Thank you.

When: 6:00PM - 8:00PM Tuesday - June 30, 2009
Where: Advanced Traffic Management - Emergency Operations Center
3773 Harding Ave Baton Rouge, LA 70087

Local Sponsor - Baton Rouge Mayor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Visit this web page (http://brgov.com/dept/oep/trainingcalendar.asp) for additional information on the course
or contact Wil White - 225-389-2100

NWS Contact - Frank Revitte, 985-649-0357 x 223.
Continue to check this page for upcoming sessions.

Joe-Nathan

06-30-2009, 07:13 AM

YESTERDAY NEWS:
RECORD HIGH IN LAFAYETTE - 101
RAIN IN LAFAYETTE - .65in
RAIN AT THE HOUSE(ST. MARTINVILLE) - 1.75in

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30/14Z.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VICINITY SHOWERS AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 30/20Z. THE
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

SEVERAL AREAS YESTERDAY SAW SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN
WITH THE COLLAPSING STORMS YESTERDAY. DON`T BELIEVE WE WILL
SEE NEAR THE COVERAGE TODAY. ALSO...DRIER AIR WORKING IN ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO HELP KEEP STORMS MORE TAME TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. SEABREEZE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO KICK BACK
IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WARM MOIST GULF AIR WORKS IN FROM
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE RECENT RAINS DIDN`T DO MUCH TO DENT THE DEFICIT
BALANCE AS THE AREA REMAINS 5 TO 11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
YEAR. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JUNE TOMORROW WITH MOST
AREAS 3 TO 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OF THE MONTH. THIS CONTINUES TO COMPOUND
THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT PROBLEM.

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-01-2009, 07:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. FOR TODAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER PATTERN
BECOMING MORE BENIGN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. VERY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW MORE NIGHTTIME/MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Joe-Nathan

07-02-2009, 07:16 AM

NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY - CURRENT RECORD IS 100!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
303 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S... WHICH SHOULD LIFT EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. IN
THE NEAR TERM...DRY BUT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
BUT HEAT INDICIES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. GFS HINTS AT
SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASE IN NIGHTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICIES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10.

Joe-Nathan

07-03-2009, 07:17 AM

A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY, BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY!!!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
613 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH HEAT INDICES AVERAGING NEAR
105 DEGREES. PERSONS ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LIGHT WEIGHT CLOTHES...DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY ARE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO INTENSE HEAT. ENSURE THAT OUTDOOR PETS
AND LIVESTOCK HAVE ACCESS TO SHADE AND PLENTY OF WATER.

DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...OUTDOOR BURN BANS AND RESTRICTIONS
ON THE USE OF FIREWORKS ARE IN PLACE AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. PERSONS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR THE SPECIFIC POLICIES IN THEIR JURISDICTION. THOSE
CHOOSING TO CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH FIREWORKS WHERE PERMITTED
ARE ENCOURAGED TO DO SO WITH CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

..HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NW GULF...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A SHEAR AXIS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER TROF PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE TO THE WEST
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD SAGGED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND IS PRESUMABLY STILL IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN VIA SFC OBS. DATA
FROM POE 88D SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY HAVE SUNK EVEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BE ONE OF CONTINUING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS CORE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS AREAWIDE AVERAGING OUT AT AROUND 105 DEGREES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
AREA...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH
WHAT REMAINS OF IT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL REMAIN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CERTAINLY NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SUNDAY BRINGS THE TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
OF LATE TO A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHATS LEFT OF RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE TEXAS LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM THIS POINT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
NEITHER POINT TO A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.

THUS...AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF RECORD BUSTING HEAT...WE
STILL HAVE ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS
HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-05-2009, 08:51 AM

"This is the end, the end my friend, the end"

THE HEAT WAVE IS ENDING TONIGHT!!!! WAAHOO!!!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 105.

LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED. SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...
WITH 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXTEND
ABOVE 100...PERHAPS TO AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING IN...AS SOON AS TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
NOCTURNAL MCS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NORTH OF OUR REGION...ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REACH E TX/CEN LA...POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...GENERALLY THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS ACADIANA...AND A
LITTLE LOWER WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER. THIS IS ALL RELATED TO A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A STRENGTHENING
500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.

BESIDES AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE COMBINATION OF
A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY AND THESE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE NOCTURNAL MCS-TYPE EVENTS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
BUT AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND/OR
LOCATION OF THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TODAY NEAR THE
COAST BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR ANY OF THE SITES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL LA TONIGHT. AEX WILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
LA.

&&
GRIFFIN

Joe-Nathan

07-06-2009, 07:14 AM

LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WAVE HAS BEEN BROKEN. HIGHS THIS WEEK IN THE LOW 90s W/DECENT RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN PROBLEM FOR AVIATION THIS GO ROUND APPEARS TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SWRN MS ACROSS CNTL/NRN LA TO NERN TX. GFS HAD THIS
ACTIVITY PEGGED AND BRINGS IT SWD WITH THE FRONT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. BASICALLY CARRIED HIGHEST CERTAINTIES OF SHOWERS AT
KAEX WITH CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO ONGOING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW ELECTED
TO KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SRN TERMINALS AT PROB30 FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY SLOWLY SWD...ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE BETTER REFINED WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE JUST HELD ONTO
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT...AGAIN LETTING LATER TAFS BETTER
REFINE THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
POPS. MCS WAS CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
SURFACED WIND FIELD LOOKS JUMBLED WITH THIS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE...IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT IS STALLED OVER NE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
NE TEXAS AND NW LOUISIANA AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. ONCE THE AIRMASS RECOVERS AND UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING FRONT
BECOMING DIFFUSE BY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE SE U.S. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO A TYPICAL DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
APPROACH OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD BRING
A RETURN TO HOT DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namscsfcwbg.gif

Joe-Nathan

07-07-2009, 07:13 AM

VERY BUSY THIS MORNING. EVENT TOTAL (6:30PM-6:30AM) AT THE HOUSE - 3.75 INCHES AND STILL RAINING...

SOME PARTS OF SW LA HAVE GOTTEN 4-6 INCHS OF RAIN SINCE MID NIGHT.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 444 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN LAKE
CHARLES ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF ACADIA PARISH SINCE 2 AM. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT ALTHOUGH FLOODING WAS NOT OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME IN THE WARNED AREA...WATER HAS BEEN QUICKLY PONDING ON
ROADWAYS WHILE ALSO FILLING DITCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE WILL ONLY FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION AND
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RICHARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FIELDS...
NORTH CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DE QUINCY...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 631 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES
THAT UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 4 AM. AS HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE BEAUREGARD PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS
THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE FIELDS COMMUNITY ALONG
HIGHWAY 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
548 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...
CENTRAL ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RAYNE...CROWLEY...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 547 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES
THAT UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 3 AM. AS HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY THE ACADIANA REGION. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROF LYING FROM LOWER ACADIANA TO THE LAKES
REGION. INTERACTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
IS SPARKING THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SEEN ON REGIONAL
88DS UPSTREAM. LOCAL 88DS HAVE BEEN PAINTING A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE AHVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE
POPS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AT KLFT/KARA/KLCH AS IF ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE UPSTREAM CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AM CARRYING TEMPO THUNDER
ALL SITES ACCORDINGLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THIS AXIS. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ACADIANA REGION WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE BETTER ENHANCED. MODELS ARE HINTING AT CONVECTION TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARISHES SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THERE. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN LOWERING POPS AS CORE OF
UPPER ANTICYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-08-2009, 07:35 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...MUCH QUIETER MORNING THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. REGIONAL
88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST OF WHITE LAKE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM. THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO HELPING PRODUCE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
OVER THE NERN ZONES ATTM. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TAILORED POPS FOR TODAY WITH LOWEST POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) ACROSS
THE NWRN ZONES WHERE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TO HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES/ERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE HELPS DIMINISH ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE A PAIR OF WEAKER
VORTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH CURRENTLY PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE
HAVE RETAINED SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CURRENTLY SHOW THE MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
STAYING TO OUR N/NW AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS SHOWING IT CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND SEA BREEZE/
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRIMARY EXCEPTION AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE
THE NOCTURNAL JETTING OVER THE WRN WATERS...LEADING TO TEMPORARILY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-09-2009, 07:31 AM

LOCAL GROUND FOG IN THE OUT LAYING AREAS AROUND LAFAYETTE.
20% CHANCE OF RAIN W/ HIGHS AROUND 94.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
357 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN MS/SRN AR/RED RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE FROM WRN TX UP THE PLAINS STATES TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE SERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGIONAL 88DS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER WEAKER VORT FIRING
CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECAYING CIRRUS
FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM.

STILL LOOKING AT SMALL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING DESPITE MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING NEARBY. FOR TODAY
WE SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED OR SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE VORT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SLINK SWD BACK TOWARD THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO
EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BY FRIDAY
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE MORE EWD TOWARD THE AREA
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE CAPPING. WITH THE RIDGE
NOT BEING OVERHEAD LIKE LAST WEEK AND THUS THE CAPPING NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT HAVE HELD ONTO AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EAST/WEST
ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK VORTS TO BEGIN
PERIODICALLY PASSING THE REGION WHILE CAPPING IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT DAYTIME POPS IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT FLOW IS PROGGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-10-2009, 07:34 AM

THE HEAT WAVE IS BACK FOR THE NEXT WEEK!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE NERN ZONES WITH MID/UPR 60S
DEWPOINTS OVER SWRN MS AND 70S DEWPOINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
N-CNTL TX WITH DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND IT TOWARD THE AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AREA
88DS SHOW ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/FORECASTS. MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND BERMUDA HIGH RESUMES ITS NORMAL PLACE
ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST. PROXIMITY TO RIDGE AXIS AND BETTER
CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE INLAND ZONES DRY BUT HOT TODAY WITH MAX
TEMPS PUSHING 100. HOWEVER DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MIX DOWN
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES ABOVE
THE 108 HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND LOCAL WRF ALL SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE GOOD RIDGING ALOFT HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP POPS LOW OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH JUST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED ALONG BAY/SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AS USUAL CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY THROUGH

BY MONDAY RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FARTHER SE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY INTO TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
WWD-MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE
ELECTED TO HEDGE BETS AND UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE AREA-WIDE TO COVER. THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE NW WHICH SHOULD HELP ALLOW MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION TO REINTRODUCE ITSELF TO THE FORECAST AREA SO SMALL
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NOCTURNAL JETTING...LIGHT SRLY TO
SWRLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR - KIND OF DRY:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009191.1215_US_wv.jpg

Joe-Nathan

07-13-2009, 07:12 AM

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BACK, FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH AROUND 98F W/ <20 CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
KEEP CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE MID 90S FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL CLIMB TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK. THE HEAT INDEX
WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK BEFORE THE NOON HOUR AND RANGE
FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY
ON TAP. LATE WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-14-2009, 08:21 AM

LESS THAN 20% OF RAIN. MIGHT BREAK A HIGH TEMP TODAY

NWS HAS SOME HUMOR THIS MORNING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.AVIATION...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE LA COULD PRODUCE SCT
CB AROUND AEX, OTHERWISE ALL SHOULD SEE CAVOK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE FIRING NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
KANSAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND DOWN INTO MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND IN THE
50S OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. NOW...CLOSER TO HOME... UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING THE SAME BROKEN RECORD AGAIN TODAY...
HOT AND DRY WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 102 TO
106 THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE FRONT SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BROUGHT THIS PERSISTENT DRY HOT WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SIX WEEKS LOOKS TO FINALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE
WEST AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE ROCKIES. WHAT THIS HOLDS FOR THE REGION
IS A BREAK IN THE DROUGHT...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOVING
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS.

PRECIP WATER AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WHAT WILL FINALLY CHANGE IS A SERIES OF
SHORTS WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

K. KUYPER

Joe-Nathan

07-15-2009, 06:15 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

.AVIATION...CHANCES FOR TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST.
WILL MENTION TEMPO MIFR VIS FOR TSTMS IN TERMINALS LFT AND ARA
WITH VCTS ELSEWHERE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009/
..FINALLY A CHANCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING...

DISCUSSION...
FIRST THINGS FIRST ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS WHILE THE LAKES REGION IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 101 TO 106 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
WILL ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS
AFTN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST WEEK.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BREAKING DOWN AND
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF PULLING BACK TO THE WEST WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS NEW SERIES OF STORMS WILL NOT END THE DROUGHT
BUT WILL HELP TO EASE SOME OF THE EFFECTS. THE OTHER BIT OF GOOD
NEWS IS TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS...NEAR 90.

AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES A TROF WILL DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL US AND
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE GULF REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COOL FRONT
DOWN TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LATEST FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COOL MORNING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S WHICH WILL BE A
GREAT CHANGE FROM THE USUAL MORNING LOWS OF THE UPPER 70S.
AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

K. KUYPER

Joe-Nathan

07-16-2009, 07:20 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ACT UPON
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER A WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG TO THE COAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVATED WITH GULF
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEYOND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THIS HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE KBPT
TERMINAL...BUT ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SUBSIDING RATHER QUICKLY. WRF
MODEL AND THE NATIONALLY RUN NAM CONTINUE TO NOT BE AS BULLISH ON
BRINGING ACTIVITY INLAND IN ITS CURRENT FORM. ACTUALLY MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO WHERE IT
IS NOW AND WEAKENS IT MID TO LATE MORNING. THEN AS SURFACE HEATING
GETS GOING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND EAST OF WHERE IT IS NOW. ACTUALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO BE BEST ALONG AND EAST OF A KAEX TO KARA LINE LATTER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING VCTS AT ALL SITES AND WENT AHEAD AND PUT
IN A PROB 30 AT KLCH AND TEMPO FURTHER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KBPT WILL BE MORE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ACTIVITY AROUND...BUT WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009/

SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND A
DEEPENING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL
COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN OVER A WEEK.

SHORT TERM...COMPELLED TO GO HIGHER ON POPS TODAY DUE TO A DEEP
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH HIGH THETA AIR,
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND CLOSER TO 2 INCHES, AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENLA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE ALREADY
BELOW CLIMO GUIDANCE FOR THE I-10 ZONES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS TO FIRE UP DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT MOIST FLOW OFF THE
GULF WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SEABREEZE TYPE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DUE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING CLOSE
TO THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EXTENDED PORION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-17-2009, 07:18 AM

Very good chance of rain today and tomorrow ahead of the COLD FRONT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME FEWER MONDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICAPATED.

11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXPAND INLAND THIS MORNING
AS ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY WITH LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS SERVING AS A FOCUS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW OVER NORTHEAST TX IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING KAEX BY
MIDMORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE VCTS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z...WITH TEMPO GROUPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
EXPECT POSSIBLE CONVECTION A BIT EARLIER AROUND KAEX WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR 16-20Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...SKIES AND VISBYS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A FADING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER COMPLEX
UPSTREAM ABOUT TO CROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NE TEXAS AND NW LOUSIANA.

SHORT TERM...ASSUMING PROPAGATION OF THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL
CONTINUE THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AROUND NOON JUST AS TEMPERATURES REACH CONVECTIVE
LEVELS. SINCE HIGH THETA AIR LIES IN THE PATH OF THIS MCS AND
THERE IS A FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A DEEP H2 TO H3
JETSTREAK OVER INTERIOR SE TEXAS AND CEN LA...AND THAT FCST PWATS
ARE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN THOSE AREAS, WILL GO AHEAD WITH A 50 POP
FOR THAT AREA. THIS MAY NEED UPDATING TO LIKELY CHANCES. A 50 POP
LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH SHOWERS
ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO SE TX...SW AND S CEN LA
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION COMES UNDER INCREASINGLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH INSTABILITY FROM COOLING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING BERMUDA RIDGE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW CLIMO BUT STILL MENTIONABLE
NEXT WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST WILL
AID IN THESE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS INTO SUNDAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE DUE
TO THE STALLING FRONT MONDAY AND BEYOND. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AROUND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE EAST.

11

ROLLTIDE

07-18-2009, 06:12 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180930
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) JUL 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) AND UPPER ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DIVIDING THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) WITH A TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER THE EAST
AND A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE WEST. NWRN GULF COAST STATES REMAIN UNDER
NWRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER WRN TX.
CLOSER TO HOME...KLCH RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE). BASED ON DEWPOINTS...SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPEARS TO EXTEND FM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FM) NEAR
CORSICANA NE ALONG THE ARK/LA BORDER THEN EAST ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) MS.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY...STALLING NEAR
THE COAST BY SUNDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) A BIT FOR TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA AND E TX AS
THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PUSHES MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR MAINLY SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) AREAS WHERE PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.7
TO 1.8 INCHES AND CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG)...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. BY
TONIGHT...SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
BECOMING SITUATED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA/E TX...AND
LOWER 70S ALONG I-10. SHOULD FEEL QUITE NICE COMPARED TO RECENT
CONDITIONS!

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) TRAVELS ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) TX INTO SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) LA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) SE TX AND FAR SWRN LA. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF A BIT ON
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND TOWARD LATE WEEK. MONDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SOME OF THE COOLEST SEEN IN A
WHILE...RUNNING ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA
AND EAST TX AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) ZONES.
LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) DURING THE WEEK AS
SRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL REDEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WASHES OUT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GULF.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-20-2009, 08:01 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HELPING INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THEREFORE
WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH TO START OFF THE TAF FOR KBPT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP
DEVELOP HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE PLACED VCTS
AFTER 20/19Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER THE
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE KBPT AND KLCH TAF SITES...WHERE MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE AT ITS BEST.

AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONT IS STALLED OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT
WERE IN THE MID 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WITH
DISTURBANCES OCCASIONALLY RIDING IN THAT FLOW. ONE DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING UP IN EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DALLAS TO LUFKIN.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA... WILL KEEP POPS
SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. CAN`T RULE
OUT A COUPLE STRONG STORMS AS WELL. FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WASH OUT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AT THE
SURFACE ALLOWING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE THESE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OR IF
ANY SPAWN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST. BUT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EACH AND EVERY DAY THIS WEEK... SHOULD RESULT
IN DAILY CONVECTION ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRYING TO APPROACH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND WASH OUT TODAY
INTO TOMORROW...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-21-2009, 07:18 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWN IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE. ONE FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL LA. MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCED CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME. FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN BACK UP
ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH NOCTURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTH
AND ONSHORE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
TAF SITES AND VCSH SHOULD COVER THIS UNTIL ABOUT 21/14Z UNTIL
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
NEARS THE AREA AND HELPS FOCUS ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD
AND PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KAEX FROM
21/20Z-21/24Z WITH VCTS AT REMAINING TAF SITES.

AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL SITUATION SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. STILL LOOKING AT A NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
WHILE AT THE SURFACE READINGS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL LA TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOCAL
RADARS ARE QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT NOTICING A BIG COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS UP ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE RIDING DOWN THE FLOW.

DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PICKING UP THE FEATURE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND CAPE AROUND 3000. SO
NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE ADVANCES IN OUR DIRECTION. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL LA.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SPC SLIGHT RISK BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THANKS TO ADDED CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WE WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK WITH ENHANCED POPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE
MODELS. FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN BACK UP ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND... NW FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. INDICATION FROM
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH
COULD HELP SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-22-2009, 07:11 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AFFECTING CENTRAL LA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
15 MPH. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR MOVING TO
THE NORTH AT 15 MPH. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR.

$$

GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RICH MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CARVES OUT MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTWARD. THIS IS
HELPING TO PROVIDE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OVER THE REGION AND HELPING PUSH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY RICH MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.

LOCAL RADARS HAVE BEEN DETECTING PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
RADAR ALSO SHOWING STREAMER TYPE NOCTURNAL GULF SHOWERS COULD BE
DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

RUA

DISCUSSION...
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY REACHING NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING BEFORE STALLING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECTED TO
SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME COASTAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS DECENT MOISTURE HANGS AROUND.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS
PROGGED TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND...PROGS SHOW SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DAILY CHANCE OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION.

RUA

MARINE...
WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY THE RULE.

RUA

HYDROLOGY...
JUST A REMINDER...TODAY WEDNESDAY JULY 22...RIVER FORECAST
SERVICES WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN FOR BUNDICK LAKE LOCATED IN
BEAUREGARD PARISH. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS LAKE CHARLES WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/LAKECHARLES THEN FOLLOW
THE LINK TITLED LAKE LEVEL FORECASTS TO BEGIN AT BUNDICK LAKE ON
JULY 22.

RUA

&&

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namscsfcwbg.gif

Joe-Nathan

07-23-2009, 07:15 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AEX EARLY THIS MORNING. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND THE REGION WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING. INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

GRIFFIN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING. MOISTURE ANALYSIS
USING LATEST RAOB AND GPS-MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PWAT AROUND 1.30 INCHES TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES NEAR THE COAST.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A RIDGE HANGING AROUND OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AGAIN
THIS IS CREATING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME LAND BREEZE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL MARSHES...WITH
STORM MOTION KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE.

RUA

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT WILL WAFFLE AROUND THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH
BEST MOISTURE CONFINED SOUTH OF IT...OR ROUGHLY FROM THE HIGHWAY
190 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. ALSO...WITH 70H FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTH...SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE LATE IN DEVELOPING AND
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND DROP POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
SLIGHT CHANCE.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS FILTERING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...SHOULD ONLY SEE ISOLATED...AT
BEST...IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS SCENARIO CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. WITH LESS CONVECTION...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

MONDAY BEGINS A TRANSITION INTO A MORE MOIST PATTERN AS PROGS
STILL SHOW SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING 2 INCHES OR GREATER BY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DISSIPATES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

Joe-Nathan

07-23-2009, 11:13 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1052 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

UPDATE

WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH WEAK NE FLOW
ACROSS NE TX/N LA...AND SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
CALM WINDS NEAR THE BROAD FRONTAL TROF. KLCH RADAR SHOWS ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES OF S LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS OUT 60NM. JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF A TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUD
FROM A TOWERING CU ACROSS SE CALCASIEU PARISH NEAR THE HAYES/BELL
CITY REGION...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR THE FORECAST...AREAS NORTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S. AFTERWARDS...CURRENT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER C TX MOVING ESE. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND LIFT OVER OUR REGION AFTER 21Z...WHICH
WILL BE JUST IN TIME OF MAX HEATING FOR THE REGION...RESULTING IN
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SINCE CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS ABOUT 50/50...ONLY RAISED
POPS TO 30% FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

DML

Joe-Nathan

07-23-2009, 04:06 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

DISCUSSION

WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH WEAK NE FLOW
ACROSS NE TX/N LA...AND SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
L&V WINDS NEAR THE BROAD FRONTAL TROF. EVEN THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED EARLIER...KLCH RADAR SHOWS SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...AND INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER C TX MOVING ESE...WITH PVA
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED THIS SCENARIO HAPPENING
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40% OVER C AND S LA DUE TO
THE INCREASED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND LIFT OVER OUR REGION STILL EXPECTED AFTER 21Z...LEFT
30% FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY...THE PREDOMINATE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT TIME
REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WEAKER RIDGES WILL DOMINATE BOTH
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THIS IS WHY WEAK FRONTAL TROFS ARE MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH IN LATE JULY.

FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO 20% DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.
WITH THE LESS CLOUD COVER COMES SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

BY MON INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN. ANOTHER FRONTAL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...TUE & WED APPEARS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AS A RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR 90/LOWER 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.

DML

MARINE

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY...KEEPING A MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW (LESS THAN 10 KT) AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

Joe-Nathan

07-24-2009, 08:04 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
453 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...DECENT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS LOOK TO
BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THOSE DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THANKS TO A WEAK MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR LCH AND BPT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM SETX. A FEW
POP UP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SETX AND
THE COASTAL AREAS OF SWLA. MENTIONED VCTS FOR THOSE TERMINALS TO
COVER THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

GRIFFIN
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009/

UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM NORTH TEXAS IS KICKING OFF A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST TEXAS WITH MAINLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS BEING
REPORTED. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE ZONES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009/

DISCUSSION...
VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT HARD TO FIND THIS MORNING AND LOOKS TO
BE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF LUFKIN TO LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...OR BASICALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF.
THIS FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GPS-MET INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER DATA STILL SHOWS SOME DECENT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
VALUES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY.

OF OTHER NOTE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY ON LOCAL RADARS WITH
SO FAR NO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF...AND SOME
TIMES THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR ON JUST HOW ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER LAND LATER TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NOTED.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE WHICH SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

STILL SEE QUITE A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LOW AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF PROVIDING A DEEPER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES AGAIN
BY TUESDAY.

BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE REGION PROVIDING
A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT AND FOCUS TO PROVIDE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
THAN THE ROUTINE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND JUST NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. A MORE PREVAILING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

RUA

Joe-Nathan

07-26-2009, 05:02 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

SYNOPSIS

THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO...WEAKENING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

FURTHER NORTH...THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH...REACHING A BIRMINGHAM TO JACKSON TO SHREVEPORT LINE
BY MONDAY MORNING...WHERE IT SUBSEQUENTLY SLOWS TO A HALT...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT.

FURTHER-UP...A LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN PERSISTS IN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES...A DEEP CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEP
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN DESERT.

AN ATTENDANT MERIDIONAL POLAR-FRONT JET CORES ANTI-CYCLONICALLY
THROUGH OMAHA THROUGH JACKSON THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

DISCUSSION

THE GULF CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS
THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES. PERSISTENT GULF BREEZES ARE
TRANSPORTING RICH AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST-CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE GFS DEPICTS SALIENT COLORADO-FRONT-RANGE SHORT
-WAVES PROPGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST...PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AS SHEARING INCREASES IN THE MIDTROPOSPHERE.

OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
SEASONAL FOR LATE JULY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY.

Joe-Nathan

07-27-2009, 07:25 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER...AVERAGING LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
602 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THOUGH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST OR EAST TEXAS...THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS BY LATE WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING BASED ON 00Z LCH RAOB AND
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS...WHICH ALL INDICATE PWAT VALUES
ARE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AROUND THE BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH...IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SFC...AND GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE WEST AT AROUND 7K TO 8K FT.
ABOVE THIS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AROUND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING REGARDING
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO START OFF
WITH...FORECAST MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS NOR THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA VERY WELL...THOUGH THE 4KM WRF DID BY FAR A BETTER JOB
THAN THE NAM OR GFS. THIS MODEL HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THOUGH ITS TIMING WAS LATE BY SEVERAL HOURS YESTERDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOP OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROVED TO BE QUITE CLOSE WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRED.

PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF LIFT...WITH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE SERVING AS LOW LEVEL POINTS OF
FOCUS. THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERMIT A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE TODAY VS YESTERDAY...AND THE 4KM WRF MODEL SHOWS
NEARLY ALL OF OUR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING INITIATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATING NORTHWARD. I AM
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE CONFINED
SOLELY TO THIS BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ON
RADAR...WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT BEING CAUSED BY THE SEA BREEZE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THIS PICTURE THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST/NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER THE TEXAS
LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEALTHY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS OUR MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO FALL BACK TOWARD MORE NORMAL VALUES BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...AS THE EAST CONUS TROF BECOMES MORE BROAD AND THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...BEGINS TO EXERT A GREATER DEGREE OF
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL SET-OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-28-2009, 07:15 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 190. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NE TX/N LA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER C LA...AFFECTING KAEX TERMINAL WITH INTERMITTENTLY
IFR VSBY/CEILING THIS MORNING. BY 16Z EXPECT THIS AREA OF TSRA TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THRU 20Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
SOUTH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT NEVERTHELESS...BE AFFECTING THESE TERMINALS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING...PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN TROF
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING
NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE BAJA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA WWD TO
NEAR WACO TEXAS.

YESTERDAY EVENING`S RAOB AND LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
AREA...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. KLCH AND KPOE
VWPS...ALONG WITH REGIONAL WIND PROFILER NETWORK...SHOW DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...WHICH GRADUALLY VEERS TO WESTERLY AT
AROUND 20K FT. THEY ALSO SHOW A 25-35KT LLJ BETWEEN 2-4K FT.

THUS FAR...WEATHER RADARS SHOWING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RETURNS OVER EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION...SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES...ONE THAT
ORIGINATED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND ANOTHER THAT DROPPED
SOUTHEAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SERVES AS A SFC FOCUS...WHILE THE CONVECTION FEEDS OFF THE VERY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WHICH IS CONTINUALLY FED IN BY THE LLJ.

THE BULK OF THE REPETITIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. STILL...THE AREA WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THAT
VERY HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED AMID THE MOISTURE LADEN AND UNSTABLE AIR.
ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE PROPAGATING WELL INLAND WITH THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.

AS THE SHORTWAVE(S) PULL OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE
DEEP MOISTURE GOES ALONG WITH IT WITH SLIGHTLY...AND I DO MEAN
SLIGHTLY...DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW H5...AND THE
GFS/NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE MEAN TROF BROADENS OUT A BIT. MEANWHILE...AT LOW
LEVELS...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT AT
LEAST MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER DEEP MOISTURE POOL SETTLING OVER
THE AREA. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL VALUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
LLJ RESULTING IN SCEC CONDITIONS AT AND WEST OF CAMERON. WILL
HEADLINE THROUGH MID MORNING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

07-28-2009, 11:13 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

UPDATE
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ACADIANA.
THESE ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAX WITHIN BROADER MID LEVEL
TROF PER RUC13...ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA PER LAPS. WELL DEFINED COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPED
LATE YESTERDAY MORNING AND MOVED NORTH ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST IN WELL DEFINED
CONVERGENCE ZONE. LESS OF SUCH A ZONE APPEARS TODAY SO BELIEVE
INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS LINEAR...WITH CELLS POPPING UP HERE
AND THERE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ARE REACHED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER LOW LFC'S SO OUTFLOWS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RAPID TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. WILL SEE HEAVY RAINS AGAIN WITH STORMS WITH PW'S EXTREME...BUT
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR OUTFLOWS/COLD POOL EMANATING FROM NORTH
LOUISIANA COMPLEX. THOUGH NOT WITHIN THE DAY1 RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...ISOLATED SEVERE EXISTS WITH MORE SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

Joe-Nathan

07-29-2009, 07:10 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
415 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND MUGGY MORNING...WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS BETWEEN PRECIP GENERATING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES...ONE
EXITING THE REGION ACROSS MS...AND THE NEXT ONE IN LINE ACROSS THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. AS THIS PROGRESSES WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BIT PROBLEMATIC ON THE AREA OF
BEST COVERAGE...BUT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

FOR THU AND FRI...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS BRINGING THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. THE BEST FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C
LA AND POINTS NORTHWARD THU...AND AREAWIDE BY FRI WITH A 40-50%
COVERAGE EXPECTED.

BY SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ALOFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO INCH EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT
S.W. THIS POSITIONING PLACES THE REGION WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SURPRISE VISITS FROM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
(MCS) THAT TYPICALLY FORMS ACROSS THE NE SIDE OF RIDGES AND MOVE
SE. BEING THAT THE SKILL TO PREDICT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PAST 24 HRS
IS LOW...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DO SO FOR AN EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER...LOWER TO MID 90S...DURING THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED...WITH S-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4
FT EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SUN...S-SE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS...AND SEAS MAINLY 2 FT.

DML

Joe-Nathan

07-30-2009, 07:29 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE A TENTH
OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.UPDATE...
WHILE LARGE MCS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX HAS SHOWN SLIGHTLY WARMING
CLOUD TOPS...IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER...TRUCKING SE AT A RATHER
RAPID 40 MPH. AT THIS RATE...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LEWP SHOULD
BE APPROACHING TYLER COUNTY BY 9-10 AM. THUS...UPDATED FORECAST TO
BUMP UP POPS TO 50% ACROSS INLAND SE TX STARTING AT 10 AM...AND
ADDED GUSTY WIND...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING. EVEN IF THE MCS WEAKENS FURTHER...THE REMNANT VORT
CENTER...ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ITS PRODUCING...WILL
LIKELY IGNITE A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX/C AND S LA...THUS BUMPED UP
POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 80S STILL ACROSS SE TX/SW LA SOUTH
OF I-10. RADAR PICKING UP ISO SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE BOARDING COUNTIES OF INLAND SE TX/PARISHES
OF WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

OF GROWING CONCERN IN THE NEARTERM FORECAST IS THE LARGE MCS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX MOVING SE RATHER RAPIDLY. THIS MCS SHOULD TURN
MORE EASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF WHAT SEEMS LIKE THE FOREVER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE MCS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT WAY ACROSS E TX...BUT THE REMNANT VORT CENTER...ALONG
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT...WILL LIKLEY
IGNITE SCT SHRA/TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
REGION. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT THE INTERITED 30% SOUTH OF 1-10...40%
NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS COVERAGE COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF THE MCS
HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR FRI...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...THUS
BRINGING THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AND SFC TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH
AS WELL. AGAIN...THE BEST FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA AND POINTS NORTHWARD WITH A 40-50% COVERAGE EXPECTED.

BY SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ALOFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO INCH EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT
S.W. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SURPRISE VISITS FROM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCS)
THAT TYPICALLY FORMS ACROSS THE NE SIDE OF RIDGES AND MOVE SE. WILL
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER...LOWER TO MID 90S...DURING THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

MARINE...
NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED...WITH S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4
FT EXPECTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

Joe-Nathan

07-31-2009, 06:12 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 AM...A LARGE OF AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND INLAND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE A QUARTER-INCH PER HOUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES OVER SE TX/SW LA THIS
MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK AND BROAD DEWPT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER INLAND SE TX & C LA. WITH UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES CONTINUING
TO MOVE WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...PERIODS
OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO ISOLATED AT
BEST. WITH THE DECREASED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS...AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-03-2009, 07:28 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS 13K TO 25K FEET MOVING GENERALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERALY
ERODE AWAY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY LIGHT FOG AT TAF SITES AEX
AND ARA SHOULD RISE TO P6SM AND HIGHER BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS TODAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN HAS RETURNED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
BE HERE FOR THE DURATION THIS WEEK. NOTING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS ON THE IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND TO THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. A MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS WEST OF OUR AREA OVER TEXAS AND THIS WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THIS RIDGE EASTWARD AND
PLANTING ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL VIRTUALLY CUT OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND THE MID 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS WEEK. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK A WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY ROTATE BENEATH THE
RIDGE AND MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE COAST WHICH COULD GIVE US A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND CUTTING
OFF RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-04-2009, 07:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES NOT MUCH GOING ON
WITH SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A TEMPO MVFR VSBY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KT
RANGE.

&&

GRIFFIN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS 4CNRS REGION OF NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN A STABLE AIRMASS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL SHAWDOW FROM A FEW CLOUDS...SKIES WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE SUNNY SIDE. THERE IS A BRIGHT SIDE TO THIS RATHER DISMAL SUMMER
DRY PATTERN...IT APPEARS THAT THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALLOW FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE...WITH FAIRLY DECENT AIM INTO OR REGION. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN BECOMING
MORE PERSISTENT WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHAT IS ALSO MORE APPARENT IS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE LIKE ACTION
WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED IN THIS COMING REGIME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
INCHING UP POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO MOUNT.

SO AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...HOT AND DRY. A SILVER LINING
EVIDENT WITH RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-05-2009, 07:21 AM

So the Ridge will begin to move off to our SE starting today - better rain chances starting Friday

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
155 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST ON THE MONEY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
DEAD ON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ALEXANDRIA WHERE A LIGHT WIND
EVIDENTLY SHAVED OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. IN THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THE FORECAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ONE THUNDERSTORM
DID DEVELOP ON TUESDAY IN LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR
IN THE MOIST FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...ALL WENT AS
PLANNED.

THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF ON SATELLITE OR RADAR. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WAS
RIDGING EASTWARD TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. GFS FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FINDS A
HOME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
TUESDAY.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR OUR AREA. WELL FOR STARTERS...THE FORECAST
PACKAGE TODAY IS REALLY ABOUT PERSISTENCE. SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEXES OF ABOUT 103 TO 106 ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY AT ALL FROM TUESDAY SO IF YOU
LIKE WARM TEMERATURES...EXPECT THE EXACT SAME HIGHS TODAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. I WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY MOSTLY I-10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. DON`T GET YOUR HOPES UP
FOR RAIN...ANY ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY HAVE SUCH A SMALL FOOTPRINT
THAT YOU COULD DRIVE ACROSS A MIRACLE RAIN IN ABOUT 1 OR 2 BLOCKS.

THE MAIN POINT IS TO BEGIN TO LOOK EAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF RAIN
DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY AND SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA BY THEN WILL HAVE UPPER
LEVEL DISTRUBANCES MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH INTO OUR
AREA. RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BEGINS IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FIGURE IN THE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-06-2009, 08:01 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
505 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES TODAY. INDIVIDUALS
WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES
FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES BY DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE TSTM ALONG AN OUTFLOW MOVING
OUT OF EARLIER CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.
INCLUDED MENTION OF CB FOR ALL SITES EARLY TODAY WITH VCTS FOR LFT
AND AEX. CHOSE NOT TO GO WITH TEMPO SINCE REMAINS OF MCS OFF THE
COAST COULD VERY WELL CUT OFF OUR SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE.
WENT WITH MVFR VIS TEMPO IFR FOR ARA IN THE WAKE OF A VORT LOBE AT
H925 MOVING THRU FROM THE EAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA HAD DISSIPATED DURING THE LATE
EVENING. THE CONVECTION HAD ACTUALLY DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE RED RIVER WHERE BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND RICH THTE AIR
EXIST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR TODAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA. WITH UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REMAINING TO THE WEST...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
ENHANCE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER HIGH WILL WEDGE EASTWARD AND
SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT
WEAKNESS ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...WEAK MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH WILL WEDGE INTO THE SE STATES THIS WEEKEND AND
MAY ALLOW FOR A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT. DEEPENING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINNING SUNDAY.

04

&&

nightrider

08-06-2009, 10:15 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 061448
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LA. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT. BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE IN THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST PW AIR WHICH IS LOCATED GENERALLY FROM NE LA BACK
TO THE SW NEAR LCH AND LFT. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWING PW VALUES
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES AND IS VERY UNSTABLE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
STRONG STORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFT. FOR THE UPDATE WILL TAPER POPS FROM THE EAST TO THE
WEST TO COINCIDE WITH AVAILABLE PW AND PROXIMITY TO THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE. DID ADJUST THE POPS UPWARD ACROSS ALL ZONES THIS AFT. 33
&&

nightrider

08-06-2009, 10:15 AM

Joe-Nathan

08-06-2009, 12:26 PM

It is funny, yesterday they forecasted that impulse coming in from Oklahoma and moving into our area with good chances of thunderstorms. But nothing happened it gave us some high level clouds. Now this MCS is coming out of Miss. along that old boundary and it is going to give central LA a wallup.

Forecasting is a pain the ***.

Joe-Nathan

08-07-2009, 07:10 AM

Low POPS today, but a TROPICAL WAVE should move through the area on Saturday afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING AS LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS. UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. WHILE
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERGO SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
REMAINING MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HENCE WILL HAVE LOW POPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SE U.S. BEGINNING SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
WEEKEND. UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE BENIGN EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-10-2009, 06:59 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT TO 60 NM. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AFFECTING LOCATIONS
BETWEEN THE COAST AND INTERSTATE 10. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

[QUOTE].AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACRS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED NEAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY 15Z THIS MORNING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MIDTROPOSPHERE EXTENDS FROM MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA THROUGH PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. GULF EASTERLY SHORTWAVES EMANATE WEST FROM THIS
INVERTED TROUGH...PASSING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS... WHERE THE BERMUDA HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE IS WEAK.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
SHORTWAVES WILL EMANATE OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...PASSING
OVER THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ABSORBING
THE INVERTED TROUGH.

DISCUSSION...

THE INCOMING EASTERLY SHORTWAVES WILL AUGMENT THE CONVECTIVE LIFT
ATTENDING DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RESULT.

IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
SEASONAL...WHILE THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEAKENS. THE
GENTLE EASTERLY WAVES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE MORE ABRUPT WESTERLY
WAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. MORE VIGOROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&
[/QUOTE

Joe-Nathan

08-11-2009, 06:36 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
457 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT KBPT THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 18Z...NOTED BY VCTS AT TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A SHALLOW DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR AMARILLO RIDGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES...ENDING IN A WEAK TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE AMARILLO HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAKDOWN TODAY...ALLOWING
A MIDWEST COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BEFORE
SLOWING TO A HALT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SKY COVER.

FOR TONIGHT...THE GFS SPECTRAL MODEL MAY BE SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS THE FORECAST MIDTROPOSPHERIC OMEGA
FIELDS REVEAL A GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM NEAR JACKSON.
HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND
THE GULFWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-11-2009, 10:39 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

UPDATE

LATEST SOUNDING HAS PRECIP WATER ABOVE TWO INCHES AND CAPE ABOVE
4000 J/KG. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS MOVING INTO SW LA AND SE
TX ATTM FROM THE NORTH. THAT COMBINED WITH C-BRZ ACTVTY SHOULD GIVE
THE LIFT NEEDED FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

Joe-Nathan

08-12-2009, 06:54 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL
BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO WOODVILLE LINE.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY RESUMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND MARSH ISLAND AND COASTAL SAINT MARY
PARISH. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1/2 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST HELPING TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS EARLY MORNING ALONG
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING THEN
RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PLACE VCTS AT TAF SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN TX/NM
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE ERN CONUS...RESULTING IN A NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE NRN GULF AS WELL AS ACRS THE MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SFC ANALYSIS...APPEARS TO
EXTEND FM TN ACRS SRN ARK INTO NE TX WHILE THE REMNANTS OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SIT ACRS CNTRL LA INTO ERN TX. RADARS QUIET FOR THE
MOST PART THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
FURTHER TO THE EAST OFF THE SE LA COAST AS WELL AS NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
ERN CONUS TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT...HELPING TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CNTRL AND SRN LA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY WASHING OUT BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SRN ZONES
WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 90S.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PWS DROPPING INTO THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO NEAR AN INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER NRN AREAS WITH A SLT
CHC POSSIBLE ACRS SRN AREAS WHERE THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER TO NEAR 70
ACRS CNTRL LA/ERN TX THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST. SRLY WINDS WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED BY
SUNDAY AFTN...AND EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO A SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS/TEMPS AND DAILY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
STALLS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS TO PERSIST
WHILE SEAS REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET.

&&

RUA

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namscsfcwbg.gif

Joe-Nathan

08-13-2009, 07:06 AM

Except along the coastal parishes:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
602 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS LOWER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CAMERON
PARISH AND WESTERN VERMILION PARISH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WATERS
BETWEEN CAMERON AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 NM WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

$$

RUA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS HELPING TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OR IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER FAR WRN
TX WHILE A TROUGH IS ELONGATED FROM THE N CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE
NERN STATES. NWRLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
DROPOFF IN PW WITH KLCH DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES FROM 2.3 YESTERDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE...KSHV ALSO MUCH DRIER FROM 1.5 INCHES AT 12Z
YESTERDAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH AT 00Z.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY INTO NRN LA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ACRS SRN LA AND SE TX NEAR I-10. KLCH 88D SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE AREA...AIDED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EAST
FROM LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION OVER SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE W TX RIDGE AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH INTO A SW-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS FM THE NRN GULF TO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST. AT THE SFC...THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN LA AND SE TX THROUGH
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY WASHING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL AREAS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT AFTN
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDS WEST. SRLY WINDS WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SATURDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING BEST MOISTURE
AND RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SE LA...MS AND AL. HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH SRLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER SERN ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

BY MIDWEEK...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SERN STATES INTO TX...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS. TRENDED POPS GRADUALLY DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE AREA COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

MARINE...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-14-2009, 07:01 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST AROUND 5 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
60 NM. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SKIRT PORTIONS OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY...AS WELL AS CAMERON PARISH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN CAMERON AND SABINE PASS OUT 20
NM...AND 10 TO 30 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN MARSH ISLAND AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 NM.

$$

RUA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KLFT AND KARA TAF SITES AFTER
14/20Z DUE TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND STORM MOTION WILL PUSH ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WESTWARD AND TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE ERN CONUS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACRS THE SERN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR EXTENDS ALL
THE WAY TO THE N CNTRL GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS STREAMING OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES...WHILE WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES OVER WRN TX. AREA 00Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LL EAST TO NE FLOW HELPING TO USHER THE
DRIER AIR OVER LA...WITH FLOW BECOMING NWRLY HIGHER UP.

SFC OBS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS BISECTING THE CWA FROM
W TO E WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS OVER ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA WITH
LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ACRS SRN AREA. KLCH 88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS TODAYS DRY PATTERN
GIVES WAY TO AN MORE ACTIVE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED TODAY WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF ON SATURDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER TX TOWARD TN. QUASI-STATIONARY SFC
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER INLAND AREAS OF
SE TX AND WRN AND CNTRL LA...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES AND ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
BASICALLY THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70 OVER CNTRL LA TO THE MID 70S OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...NEAR CLIMO FOR MID-AUGUST.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND DEEPEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PWS OF 1.6 INCHES SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SUNDAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH TREKKING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TX COAST WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR
ERN CUBA MOVES INTO THE ERN GULF. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INITIALLY
OVER THE SERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. WITH INCREASED RAIN AND
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN
STATES. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM CHC CATEGORY TUESDAY TO SLT CHC
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

MARINE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TODAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOW SEAS PERSISTING AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MAINLY
EAST OF SABINE PASS AS THIS WAVE MOVES ONSHORE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

&&

nightrider

08-14-2009, 12:30 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List |
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.AVIATION...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE COAST. THE C-BRZ IS HANGING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TX/LA COAST AT THIS TIME. FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO HOLD
BOUNDARY IN PLACE THRU THE EVE HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BKN DECK RANGING
FROM 040 TO 060 NEAR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI MOVING WEST... THIS
PATTERN WILL INFLUENCE WX AROUND AND NEAR LFT/ARA AND AEX...
STORMS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009/

UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK NE FLOW OVER LAND BEHIND A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LA/TX COASTS. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWS
MOISTURE UP TO 700MB...WITH MASSIVE DRYING ABOVE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOUNDING. RADAR SHOWS SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THIS...INCREASED
POPS OFFSHORE TO 30% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...KEEPING
20% FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AS ISO SHRA/TSRA BEGINS
TO FORM ACROSS SE TX/S LA REGION. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 90S (UPPER 90S INLAND SE TX)...AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD.

nightrider

08-16-2009, 04:43 PM

From LCH NWS

THOSE THAT ARE LOOKING FOR A COOL FRONT MAY SEE THIS POSSIBILITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS JUST A WAIT AND SEE AT THIS TIME.

ROLLTIDE

08-19-2009, 07:28 AM

SWEET

pecial Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-200000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
604 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$

Joe-Nathan

08-19-2009, 07:35 AM

I am back.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
606 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.AVIATION...
SHRA ALREADY MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF THIS MORNING...WILL
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT KBPT/KLCH TERMINALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FOR THIS...PLACED TEMPO GROUP FROM 12-14Z TO ADDRESS INTERMITTENT
MVFR VSBY/CEILING ALONG WITH SHRA. COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ONLY
INCREASES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO RE-INITIATE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CHANCE OF KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS RECEIVING A TSRA/MVFR
CEILING & VSBY BETWEEN 16-20Z...AND KAEX BETWEEN 17-21Z.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WEAKEN JUST BEFORE SUNSET...DISSIPATING BY
MID EVENING.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER-
AIR/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH A TUTT NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A RATHER
BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z
KLCH RAOB AND OVERNIGHT GOES DERIVED PRODUCTS...WHICH SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.5 INCHES...WHICH IS A LITTLE OVER 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE OR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS SHOW LITTLE
INHIBITION AND DECENT CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDICATE
THAT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE LOW GIVEN 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15 KT...WHICH MEANS NO ROTATING OR TILTED
UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL THEREFORE ALSO BE SUBJECT TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING...AND FREEZING AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 15K AGL
WHICH INDICATE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS...ANOTHER DAY OF GENERALLY SCATTERED...RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED...AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT LOCALLY
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE CAPABLE
PRODUCING GENERALLY WEAK AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES...WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT AND WARN FOR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS...AND WILL ISSUE ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THIS.

MODEL PROGS SHOW A DISTINCT NORTH TO SOUTH THETA-E RIDGE RUNNING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER...WHICH IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
SITUATION 24 HRS AGO. THIS IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
INITIATED YESTERDAY...AND WHERE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
FARTHEST INLAND MOVEMENT OF CELLS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA ALL-DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY POPS WERE
CARRIED AREAWIDE.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH CHANCE...AND A FURTHER
INCREASE TO LIKELY MAY BE NEEDED. BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE HERE AS WELL...AND
AGAIN...FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN QUITE TROPICAL IN NATURE.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
MUCH DRIER. IN FACT...THE PENDULUM WILL SWING ABOUT 180 DEGREES
FROM AN AIRMASS WITH A PWAT OF PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...TO ONE
OF MINUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE PROGGED
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...AND I WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO
SEE 50S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE GREATEST
IMPACT WILL BE FELT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH LOOK TO BE AS MUCH
AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER CENTRAL LA. RAIN CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY...DROP OFF
TO NOTHING AMID THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING AND RAIN CHANCES STAYING OUT OF THE
PICTURE.

SO TO SUMMARIZE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY BRINGING OFFSHORE
FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

ROLLTIDE

08-19-2009, 07:56 AM

you should be out chasing those spouts

Joe-Nathan

08-19-2009, 08:03 AM

you should be out chasing those spouts

Yes I should, but I just spent the last three days working 18hr days in the Lafourche ph. marshes. We had big storms every day, I was just to busy working to chase. It sure was pretty though.

SOL!

ROLLTIDE

08-20-2009, 06:37 AM

2nd chance

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-210000-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
544 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$

Joe-Nathan

08-20-2009, 07:11 AM

Yep, and once again I am chained to my crappy desk today..:-(

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

.AVIATION...
S FLOW OFF THE GULF CONTINUES TO BRING A RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
RICH ATMOSPHERE TO THE REGION. SHRA MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF
THIS MORNING...WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA
TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THIS...PLACED TEMPO GROUP FROM
12-15Z TO ADDRESS INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING ALONG WITH SHRA.
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ...WITH A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS RECEIVING A TSRA/MVFR CEILING & VSBY
BETWEEN 16-20Z... AND KAEX BETWEEN 19-23Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
WEAKEN JUST BEFORE SUNSET...DISSIPATING BY MID EVENING.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE
ATLANTIC/SE CONUS WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. A DEEP LAYER TROF WAS
ALSO EVIDENT DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE WWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SE KANSAS
THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.

OVERALL...NOT TOO MANY ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST THIS GO
ROUND...AS GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PER KLCH 00Z RAOB AND OVERNIGHT GOES
DERIVED PRODUCTS...WHICH SHOW PWATS NEAR 2.3 INCHES...SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. MOISTURE...THOUGH ABUNDANT EVERYWHERE...IS
HIGHER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA THAN EAST TEXAS...AND
THEREFORE...SO ARE THE POPS FOR TODAY. THE 4KM WRF...AS WELL AS
OUR LOCAL 7KM WRF AND THE 40KM RUC ARE PAINTING THE HIGHEST QPF IN
THIS FASHION AS WELL...LENDING CONFIDENCE THAT THE GREATEST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN AN AREA GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM MARKSVILLE TO CAMERON. LIKELY POPS WERE CARRIED IN
THIS AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY...THOUGH WIND SHEAR
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND POINTS NORTH...WITH SPC OUTLINING AREAS TO
OUR NORTH IN A SLIGHT RISK.

MAJORITY OF DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME TO
AN END THIS EVENING...AND I HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF SOME CONCERN ARE THE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOWN BY THE 4 KM WRF TO
DROP INTO EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
COMPLETELY WEAKENING. SINCE THIS IS NEARING THE END POINT OF HOW
FAR OUT I TYPICALLY TRUST THIS MODEL...I WOULD PREFER TO LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS ASSESS THIS POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY AND INCREASE
POPS OVER THESE AREAS...OR NOT...AS APPROPRIATE.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH DRAWS CLOSER AS THE DEEP LATER TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...AND POTENTIALLY COULD DROP FURTHER. THE RESULT OF THIS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...ASIDE FROM LOWERING OUR RAIN CHANCES TO ZERO...WILL
BE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE GENERALLY 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THIS PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE MIDDLE AND
PERHAPS LATE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING THE TROF CUTTING OFF AND RETROGRADING WWD. ONCE WEST OF
US...THIS WOULD OPEN THE GULF BACK UP. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
INCREASING A LITTLE TO AN AREAWIDE CHANCE ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AND AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY AS A COOL FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE GULF WATERS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEADLINED
SCEC FOR THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE DROPPED
WITH THE MID MORNING ISSUANCE AS WINDS RELAX.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-20-2009, 04:37 PM

..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE

VERMILION...ACADIA...IBERIA AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE PARISH MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ALERT INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
YOUNGSVILLE...ST. MARTINVILLE...SCOTT...PARKS...MILTON...MEAUX...
MAURICE...LAFAYETTE...KAPLAN...JEFFERSON ISLAND...HENRY...
HENDERSON...ERATH...DUSON...DELCAMBRE...CECILIA... CATAHOULA...
CARENCRO...CADE...BUTTE LA ROSE...BROUSSARD...BREAUX BRIDGE...
ARNAUDVILLE AND ABBEVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED

Joe-Nathan

08-21-2009, 07:06 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
606 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY
LOW...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ON OR INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE
CAPABLE PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
558 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AMID A MEAN TROF THAT DOMINATES THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. ONE LOBE
OF ENERGY WAS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF AND HEADING
EAST TWD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS INITIAL PUSH HAS SENT THE SFC
FRONT TO NEAR A TYLER TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS LINE AS OF 09Z.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY WAS HEADED SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DRIVE THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE GULF WATERS.

IN THE MEANTIME...FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM H85 AND ABOVE...WHICH
WAS ALREADY WESTERLY ON THE KLCH 00Z RAOB SAVE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT H25 AROUND AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME PER OVERNIGHT PROFILER OBS
AND KLCH 88D VAD...AS THE DIGGING MEAN TROF SQUASHES WHAT REMAINS
OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AT THE SFC...FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE TOO...IS
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN.

ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. GREATEST COVERAGE IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WHERE LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS H85 THETA-E RIDGE. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THOUGH STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND STRONG OR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FOR
TONIGHT...I HAVE LEFT POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT INLAND
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC FRONT...MEANWHILE...IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH TODAY OR
TONIGHT...AS THE INITIAL VORT LOBE LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST.

THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY...HOWEVER...AS THE SECONDARY VORT
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT AS OUR SFC WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF PROGGED TO REACH
NEAR A VILLAGE MILLS TO OPELOUSAS LINE BY SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THIS VORT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20-60NM GULF ZONES...WHERE IT WILL
THEN SUBSEQUENTLY STALL. FOR THE TIME BEING...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY PRECIP FREE...THOUGH I SHOULD NOTE THAT
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIBBON OF
MOISTURE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...AND GENERATE
LIGHT QPF IN THIS ZONE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT ALTOGETHER
UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE PRIMARY PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL BE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PERTURBATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION AMID THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS USHERED IN BY THIS ANOMALOUS TROF WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S
OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THIS DRY WEATHER...ASIDE FROM THE SUNDAY POTENTIAL MENTIONED
ABOVE...IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
EVEN BEYOND THAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STARTED TO WAFFLE AROUND
A BIT ON WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS WITH THE TROF THAT CUTS OFF OVER THE
SE CONUS ON MONDAY...WHERE THEY HAD BRIEFLY AGREED ON RETROGRADING
IT WEST OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL SHOWN BY THE 21/00Z
ECMWF...THOUGH A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ITS
PREVIOUS RUN WAS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE GFS HAS SIMILARLY BEEN
DIFFERENT FROM RUN TO RUN. UNTIL THE MODELS SETTLE DOWN A
BIT...OPTED TO LEAVE THE POP FORECAST ALONE...WHICH SHOWS RAIN
CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
COOL FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE GULF WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
S FLOW OFF THE GULF CONTINUES TO BRING A TROPICAL MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE TO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. NOCTURNAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/ KARA TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EXPECTING A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA
TERMINALS RECEIVING A TSRA/MVFR CEILING & VSBY BETWEEN
16-20Z...AND KAEX BETWEEN 18-22Z. NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO USHER
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING
AN END TO RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-22-2009, 08:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
731 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...OR AT KARA COMMENCE...AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE COLUMN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AND DIFFUSE DEWPT FRONT ACROSS THE
E TX LAKES REGION INTO C LA. PREVIOUS SHRA/TSRA OVER S CENTRAL LA
HAS ENDED.

EXPECT THE DEWPT FRONT TO PUSH FURTHER S TODAY INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...BRINGING DRIER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION...ENDING
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS. ALOFT...A VERY AMPLIFIED WAVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. WITH A DEEP LAYER TROF OVER
THE EAST COAST...AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER DEWPTS THAT WILL BE FILTERING IN LATER TODAY WILL STILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S...BUT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
MORE TOLERABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECTING
LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS C LA...MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE FOR SUN
MORNING.

ONLY EXPECTING A SLOW MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS (MAINLY IN
DEWPTS) THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THRU TUE.
ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE EAST COAST TROF CUTTING
OFF OVER THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADING WEST TUE AND WED. THE
ECMWF IS FURTHEST W WITH THE RETROGRADE...PLACING THE UPPER LOW OVER
TX WED THRU FRI...WHILE THE GFS HALTS THE UPPER LOW OVER LA/MS FOR
WED/THU...AND LIFTS IT OUT BY FRI. OBVIOUSLY...THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH GULF MOISTURE AND SHRA/TSRA WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. FOR NOW...BROUGHT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA BY WED...INCREASING TO A CHANCE FOR THU & FRI.

DML

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY COMMENCED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
..EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE THRU THE WEEKEND...REMAINING IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AND SUN...AND EVENTUALLY RETURNING SE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

DML

Joe-Nathan

08-24-2009, 05:15 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME WRN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...AS
OPPOSED TO LIGHT ERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LIKEWISE GPS-MET IPW DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE QUITE A SPREAD IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.7 INCHES EAST TO 1.6 INCHES WEST.
UNDERSTANDABLY REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SPORADIC CONVECTION POPPING UP
ALONG/WEST OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.

CARRYING A GENERALLY PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WRN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND THE SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR HOLDING STEADY. POPS DROP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT MAYBE SLIGHTLY WWD.

BY TOMORROW SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ERN CONUS TROF IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND SHIFT WWD TOWARD THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MAYBE A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THIS
RETROGRADING FEATURE SHOULD KEEP POPS TO BASICALLY NIL BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MODERATE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE REGION AND HELP
AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE AREA. HAVE RANGED THE LOW
ASSOCIATED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NWRN ZONES TO
BASICALLY NONE SERN ZONES FOR FRIDAY THEN JUST A SMALL POP
AREAWIDE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT ERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE ERN GULF. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED THIS GO ROUND.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-25-2009, 07:14 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NWRN GULF ACROSS E-CNTL TEXAS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS REGION...SIMILAR
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS WELL AS FEW SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE FROM
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SABINE PASS...ALSO LIKE 24
HOURS AGO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS BIG BEND REGION UP THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS THEN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW IS SEEN DROPPING SW ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE
DIFFERENCE FROM LAST NIGHT IS THAT TEMPS ARE A TOUCH WARMER WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NERN ZONES TO THE UPPER 70S
EXTREME SWRN ZONES.

FORECAST THINKING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE...WILL
BE THE BOUNDARY OVER SERN TEXAS. SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND LOCAL WRF
ALL AGREE ON QPF FIELDS ONLY SHOWING PRECIP WEST OF THE SABINE.
THEREFORE AM GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MY TEXAS
ZONES...RANGING DOWN TO BASICALLY ZERO FOR THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
WEDNESDAY POPS WILL BE SIMILAR AS BETTER JET DYNAMICS AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSET SUBSIDENT FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW. LOW
EJECTS EWD ON THURSDAY WITH DRIER NRLY FLOW BEHIND IT BASICALLY
CUTTING OFF CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH DIGGING EAST COAST TROF WILL
BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION WHILE SRLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE SFC FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING THE NWRN ZONES.
COMBO OF ALL THESE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT STALLS TO
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE GIVES IT A
SHOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER FROPA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...POST-FRONTAL ERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS BEFORE VARIABLE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SITTING ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO NEXT
FROPA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED ATTM ALTHOUGH
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-26-2009, 07:03 AM

I might be needed today!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
THESE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.AVIATION...
RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM ALLEN PARISH IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JEFFERSON COUNTY IS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT ALSO SPRING UP ACROSS HARDIN COUNTY AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HAVE
ADDED SOME PRECIP TO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CLOUDS. STORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE MRNG
HOURS EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS SHOWING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATOCU ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 4-5K FT. RADAR
CURRENTLY CLEAR OF ANY PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BETWEEN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS AND NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.

EXPECTING LIMITED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS MOISTURE
PROFILES INDICATING A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. THIS IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED
MISSISSIPPI LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TEXAS AND OLD MEXICO. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE MODELS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
REMAINING IN PLACE AND JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ALLOW
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW. WITH INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS PROGGED ACROSS THIS AREA AND UNUSUAL 50-60 KNOT AUGUST
JET ALOFT...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST TYPE
CONVECTION.

RAIN CHANCES OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AS LOW KICKS OUT
TO THE EAST AND OPENS AS NEXT TROF WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS DEPICTING INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
ADVANCE FRONT TO THE LAKES AREA LATE FRIDAY...THEN A RATHER SLOW
MIGRATION SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND STALLING OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT WILL BE LOOKING AT A
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER NIGHTS
AND LESS HUMID DAYS MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO HOLD OVER THE GULF WATERS
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT
WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY RESULTING IN A BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-27-2009, 07:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
650 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CNTRL LA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS MOVING INTO THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX. THIS HAS
BROUGHT IN SOME CLDS TO THE REGION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STORMS TDY ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THIS. BUT GUIDANCE
WAS WRONG YESTERDAY A BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. A FEW SITES REPORTING LIGHT FOG. RADAR SHOWING
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY RELAXED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTING LOW ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

WILL MAINTAIN LOW END RAIN CHANCE TODAY. PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES
AT THIS TIME APPEAR MARGINAL...AND MOS NUMBERS LOW. HOWEVER THERE
WAS A SIMILAR OUTLOOK YESTERDAY AND ENDED UP WITH DECENT AREA COVERAGE
OF PRECIP. HENCE...WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SITUATION...POTENTIAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AGAIN PASSING OVERHEAD IN NORTHERLY
FLOW...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED AND BOUNDARIES LAID
DOWN BY YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN POPS.

MODELS SUGGESTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AS FORECAST PW`S
JUMP TO NEAR 2 INCHES AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH
BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE VALUES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HOWEVER WILL LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND ADVANCING ONLY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH MAINTAIN LOW END POPS WITH FROPA.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK-WEEK AS AREA COMES UNDER THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UNUSUAL 1025
MB AUGUST SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ADVANCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS EXPECTING WARM AND
LESS HUMID DAYS FOR THE NEW WEEK AND COOLER NIGHTS.

MARINE...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEAR COASTAL WATER UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

nightrider

08-27-2009, 04:21 PM

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Hazardous Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-281200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
324 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND THE SEABREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SIX...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

Joe-Nathan

08-27-2009, 05:19 PM

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

I guess I need to make sure I am gassed up and loaded with fresh batteries.

This might work out, I get off of work before noon. Oh ya.

nightrider

08-27-2009, 07:41 PM

Saturday will be perfect for your area.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

Joe-Nathan

08-28-2009, 07:05 AM

The Weather Gods give it and they take it away:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

CH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.AVIATION...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME
KICKING OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. HAVE ADDED
SHWR/TSTM INTO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ALL TAF LOCATIONS. CEILINGS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL LIMIT VSBY...GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN TODAYS AVIATION FORECAST. STORMS
WILL END LATE MRNG FOR SE TX AND DURING THE AFTN FOR SOUTH-CNTRL
LA.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING CENTER OF MID/UPPER
LOW ADVANCING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FEATURE
FOLLOWED BY MODEST RIDGE ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO TEXAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL BE ADVANCING INTO WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA SHORTLY. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY
MAXIMA.

OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR. AFOREMENTIONED TROF
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING FRONT NOT MOVING INTO
THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. UNTIL FROPA RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE.

NEW WORK-WEEK SHAPING UP WELL AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS
YIELDING COOLER NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID DAYS.

MARINE...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEAR COASTAL WATER UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

Joe-Nathan

08-28-2009, 08:51 AM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

..TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO CONSIST OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY WHERE
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COLLIDE
WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

Joe-Nathan

08-31-2009, 07:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
608 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOUND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL SURFACE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR TODAY. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009/

SYNOPSIS...AN EARLY SEASON 1026HPA SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH COOL CANDADIAN AIR INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MARKED THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COOL AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND OUT INTO THE GULF AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM ALOFT OUT OF WEST TEXAS. THIS
WILL BRING AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL WEATHER WITH TURNING OF THE
CALANDAR TO SEPTEMBER.

MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO TUESDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE FRONT
RETREATS BACK AS A WARM FRONT.

SHORT TERM...A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
AND EVEN THREATEN RECORD LOWS. FOR OUR AREA THAT MEANS COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW HUMIDITIES. HELD TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER WET PERIOD IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES PUMPS GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

CLIMATE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK RECORDS ARE:

LAKE CHARLES...63 DEGREES SEP 1ST 1911...59 DEGREES SEP 2ND 1903.
NEW IBERIA.....66 DEGREES SEP 1ST 2006...59 DEGREES SEP 2ND 1954.
ALEXANDRIA.....61 DEGREES SEP 1ST 1967.

SWEENEY

Joe-Nathan

09-01-2009, 07:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...IT ALL DEPENDS ON CIRRUS. A 1027HPA HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EAST TEXAS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF AT H85 DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A
COOL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SUBTROPICAL
JET CARRYING MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL KEEP
CIRRUS CLOSE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND STALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WARMER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER THE
EASTERN STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS WILL ACT UPON WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TODAY. THIS IS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM WHICH IS
PREFERED OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE UPPER WIND
FIELD TNITE SUPPORTS A LACK OF CIRRUS DUE TO A LEFT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE H250 JET WHICH IS SUBSIDENT. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A TOUCH OF
COLD ADVECTION TO THE EAST COULD ALLOW FOR THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT
OF TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES...AS LOW AS AROUND 60 WHICH WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR UNDER RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR THE AREA.

AN INCREASE OF CIRRUS TODAY AND TNITE WILL LIKELY REQUIRE UPDATES
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM
MOISTURE TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH RETURN
MOISTURE SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES REACHABLE TONIGHT:
BEAUMONT.......62F....SEP 2 1919.
LAKE CHARLES...59F....SEP 2 1903.
LAFAYETTE......57F....SEP 2 1919.
NEW IBERIA.....59F....SEP 2 1954.
ALEXANDRIA.....55F....SEP 2 1954.

SWEENEY

Joe-Nathan

09-02-2009, 07:00 AM

Lafayette Regional Airport
Last Update on Sep 2, 5:53 am CDT

Fair
65 °F
(18 °C)
Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: N 6 MPH
Barometer: 30.08" (1018.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 57 °F (14 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

THE MIDWEST HIGH WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY...DISTORTING A STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MARINE POINT 26N 87W TO JUST
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE
WILL ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF MOVES LITTLE.

THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RE-BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...
FURTHER DISTORTING THE FRONTAL SURFACE...WHICH WILL BE FOUND NEAR
A LINE FROM JUST OFFSHORE GEORGIA TO MARINE POINT 28N 90W TO
MARINE POINT 24N 95W.

THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THIS POSITIVE-TILTED FRONTAL SURFACE WILL
ADVANCE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND
..WITH THE FRONTAL SURFACE TAKING ON A MORE MERIDIONAL
ORIENTATION AS IT ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

DISCUSSION...

SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS ADVECTING MIDWEST AIR PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL...THE CORRESPONDING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MINIMUMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS IN-PLACE DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
BENCHMARK NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

OUTLOOK...

A CUT-OFF LOW WILL FORM OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...ITS
CIRCULATION STEERING ROCKY MOUNTAIN SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES
WILL AUGMENT THE UPGLIDING GULF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
GULF FRONT (SEE SYNOPSIS). RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

Joe-Nathan

09-03-2009, 07:10 AM

Well the moisture is creeping back. Rain chances increasing to the West and North of Lafayette. Rain chances will be back in the forecast tomorrow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KBPT BY
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING EAST OR NORTHEAST AT
LOUISIANA TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH A FEW CU AROUND 5-6 KFT POSSIBLE AT KBPT LATE TODAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT MARKS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THIS COOL PRESSURE SYSTEM
..DRAPING NEAR A LINE FROM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TO MARINE POINT
25N88W THROUGH TAMPA BAY TO JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE BERMUDA HIGH RE-BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...WILL
SHOVE THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.

THE DIFFUSING WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE IT SUBSEQUENTLY WASHES OUT.

FURTHER-UP...A MIDTROPOSPHERIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA
TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL SOUTH ALONG THIS
STATIONARY FRONTAL SURFACE...PASSING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE GFS COMPUTES FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR SHREVEPORT ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE CONSEQUENT CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

FOR TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DOMINATE AS ADVECTIVE COOLING
BREAKS DOWN. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR FRIDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AS SALIENT SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES...CARRYING MIDLATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW FORMS NEAR SHREVEPORT. GULF MOISTURE WILL ASCEND CYCLONICALLY AS
IT APPROACHES THE CUT-OFF. THE GFS DEPICTS A TROWAL AIRSTREAM OVER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ANALOGOUS TO AN OCCLUDING LOW.

&&

Joe-Nathan

09-03-2009, 11:15 AM

Sham w/ an update to the DISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

UPDATE

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE SHV CWA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IS BASED ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL
INVERSION IN A MOIST LAYER FROM 850-700MB PER KLCH AND KSHV 12Z
SOUNDING. WITH ATMOSPHERE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ACROSS OUR REGION
VERSUS THE ARKLATEX...ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE AS IT
MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR ONLY NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. SHOULD ACTIVITY MAINTAIN ITSELF
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN FORECAST...UPDATE MAY BE NECESSARY TO
RAISE OR ADJUST POPS. WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS CURRENTLY AND UPSTREAM...WILL NOT LOWER HIGH TEMPS
FOR TODAY AS THEY SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO AROUND 90.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT
SHORTLY.

SHAMBURGER

Joe-Nathan

09-04-2009, 06:16 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS EARLY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND. AREA 88DS SHOW A WEAKENING MCS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY W AND SW OF THIS
SYSTEM. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SE TEXAS LAKES
REGION AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA TODAY WHERE POPS
WILL BE HIGHEST. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AND WILL TAPER THEM EASTWARD. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS MODELS GRADUALLY SHIFT THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THOROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SURFACE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM.

&&

Joe-Nathan

09-08-2009, 09:09 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.NOW...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT WILL
CONTINUE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
500 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...PATCHY MVFR FOG IS AFFECTING AREA TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY 13Z WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z...AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
VCSH IN FOR AREA AIRPORTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG INLAND.

MOISTURE VALUES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. WITH NO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES OR SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS SEA BREEZES. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE SEA/BAY BREEZE CONVERGENCE PROGGED TO BE A
LITTLE STRONGER.

EXPECT MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A MORE PROFOUND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE TO CHANCE RANGE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...A COASTAL TROF/LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOTED AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT
VALUES OVER 2.25 INCHES. THUS...A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE PLAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL PUSH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION AND HELP TO REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

RUA

Joe-Nathan

09-09-2009, 07:55 AM

Those Anvils stacked up offshore looked beautiful this morning.

*NOTE: KLCH Radar is still down until parts arrive!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COASTAL TROUGH STRETCHING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA
WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.AVIATION...
ONLY KLFT AND KARA REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
KARA STILL AT VFR. WILL RETAIN AN HOUR LONG TEMPO TO MVFR FOR
THESE TWO SITES...AS VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE...VFR
OBSERVED AT THE REMAINING SITES THIS MORNING.

AFTER THE RELATIVE QUIET MORNING...AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED...SO THE FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FROM 06Z
HAS NOT CHANGED. ALREADY SEEING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MANAGING TO
STRAY INLAND OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING/SPREADING FARTHER INLAND. PROB GROUPS WERE REMOVED IN
FAVOR OF VICINITY WORDING THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS USED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN BULK OF INLAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AGAIN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 00Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH IS NEARLY 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND SOUTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBTROPICAL
JET IS ESTABLISHED FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES APPARENT IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND ZONES TODAY AND WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE AVG GFS ENSEMBLE MOS...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE OPER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AND
MAINLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

WITH PWATS STAYING IN THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
WILL GRADUALLY FORM INTO A SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
UP THE COAST AND INTO OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT
EFFECTS ON OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
FIRST WAVE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAVERSES THE REGION. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CERTAINLY
APPEARS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS VALUES REMAINING
VERY HIGH...SUGGESTIVE OF CONTINUED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM BOTH MODELS MAKES
THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND THUS HAVE ONLY RAISED POPS
SLIGHTLY.

NOTE TO USERS...THE KLCH RADAR CONTINUES TO BE INOPERABLE AND
CANNOT BE REPAIRED UNTIL NEW PARTS ARRIVE.

05

MARINE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE CLOCK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND TRACK.

05

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-09-2009, 12:04 PM

00
FXUS64 KLCH 091458
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
958 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TARGET). I SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
ONLY KLFT AND KARA REPORTING VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
KARA STILL AT VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR). WILL RETAIN AN HOUR LONG TEMPO TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) FOR
THESE TWO SITES...AS VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
OBSERVED AT THE REMAINING SITES THIS MORNING.

AFTER THE RELATIVE QUIET MORNING...AN ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED...SO THE FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FROM 06Z
HAS NOT CHANGED. ALREADY SEEING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MANAGING TO
STRAY INLAND OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION)
DEVELOPING/SPREADING FARTHER INLAND. PROB GROUPS WERE REMOVED IN
FAVOR OF VICINITY WORDING THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS USED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN BULK OF INLAND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AGAIN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) IMAGERY SHOWING IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 00Z KLCH SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) SHOWS PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) VALUES HAVE RISEN
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH IS NEARLY 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL).
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND SOUTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) INDICATES SUBTROPICAL
JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) IS ESTABLISHED FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES APPARENT IN
THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND ZONES TODAY AND WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) CLOSE TO THE AVG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AVG) GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ENSEMBLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLE) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS)...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE OPER GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE. BOTH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AND
MAINLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

WITH PWATS STAYING IN THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) SUBTROPICAL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET)...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE COASTAL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
WILL GRADUALLY FORM INTO A SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
UP THE COAST AND INTO OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT
EFFECTS ON OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
FIRST WAVE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRAVERSES THE REGION. POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH HPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC) AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) CERTAINLY
APPEARS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SHOW CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS VALUES REMAINING
VERY HIGH...SUGGESTIVE OF CONTINUED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM BOTH MODELS MAKES
THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND THUS HAVE ONLY RAISED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)
SLIGHTLY.

NOTE TO USERS...THE KLCH RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) CONTINUES TO BE INOPERABLE AND
CANNOT BE REPAIRED UNTIL NEW PARTS ARRIVE.

05

MARINE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE CLOCK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND TRACK.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 88 72 88 72 87 / 50 30 50 30 50
KBPT 88 73 88 73 87 / 50 30 50 30 50
KAEX 90 70 90 70 89 / 40 20 40 20 50
KLFT 88 71 88 71 88 / 50 30 50 30 50

Joe-Nathan

09-09-2009, 03:01 PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
104 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

..TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARIES...
KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

Joe-Nathan

09-10-2009, 05:03 AM

Looks like I will be getting wet today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. KLCH
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A PWAT
OF 2.15 INCHES. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
HAS SET UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
PRECIP COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ANEW IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED BEGINNING TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS ALL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THEY DO APPEAR TO BE
GETTING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. GFS
AND ECMWF FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY...TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS A NON-TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A TROPICAL STORM FORMING RAPIDLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
PATH AND TIMING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

FOR NOW WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS AREA WILL SEE RAIN REGARDLESS WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND
LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATES AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CONSIDERED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
A WATCH AT THIS TIME...AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN HWO FOR NOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN
WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRYING THE AREA OUT NEXT WEEK WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND
IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW WILL BLEND THE TWO
EXTREMES AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...

A WET END OF THE WEEK FOR MARINE INTERESTS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...WIND AND SEA
FORECAST MAY BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISIONS.

&&

nightrider

09-10-2009, 05:27 AM

[QUOTE=Joe-Nathan;239350]Looks like I will be getting wet today.

and tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day./daz

Joe-Nathan

09-10-2009, 08:16 PM

Only thing is my getting wet is from walking the marsh around Belle Isle. Cannot use the airboat b/c the vegetation is conductive to getting airboats stuck. So we have to walk it. So by the time we get rained on, which was twice today, it is nice and cooling. I will be out there again on Friday.

Man, my big out of shape 8ss is pooped!

ROLLTIDE

09-11-2009, 03:44 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 110447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED A WET PERIOD COMING UP FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONE DRY POINT FOR
THIS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SLIM TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ALREADY
LEADING TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING VISIBILITIES. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE
MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) IN LIGHT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) BY 08Z/09Z. AFTER SUNRISE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA THANKS TO COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
ENCROACHING THE AREA WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY ROUNDING DEVELOPING
AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HELP PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009/

TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO ACROSS
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.

FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD LOW MAY BE FORMING SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO.
THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) DEPICTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SAN ANTONIO LOW ON
FRIDAY AS IT TRAVELS NORTHWARD. THE OCCLUDING LOW MERGES WITH
THE AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE ON SATURDAY.

AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ON WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WILL SET UP ALONG A
NEW MEXICO-TO-SOUTH TEXAS AXIS. ITS ATTENDANT DILFUENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL AUGMENT THE CYCLONIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD LOW.

DISCUSSION...

A RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE IN THE WORKS. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) CONTINUES TO
DEPICT AN EVOLVING TROWAL AIRSTREAM...AS INCOMING CAMPECHE AIR
ASCENDS CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF
COAST STATES.

A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY AREAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCHES. WOULD LIKE
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) NUMBERS FOR
CONSISTENCY.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL).

TRARES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 73 82 73 82 74 / 50 70 70 80 80
KBPT 71 80 73 82 75 / 50 70 70 80 80
KAEX 72 81 71 84 73 / 30 60 60 80 80
KLFT 72 81 72 84 74 / 40 70 70 80 80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

09-12-2009, 04:12 AM

0
FXUS64 KLCH 120501
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 12 2009

.AVIATION...
SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
SE TX. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN).
CIGS/VISBYS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009/

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS EVENING. RADARS SHOW AREAS OF PRECIP
CIRCULATING AROUND A MID-LEVEL CENTER LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) LOCATED OVER MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST. DESPITE THE RESPITE ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOK IN PLACE AS AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) SHOWS NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
IMPULSES ROUNDING PRIMARY UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.
THEREFORE HAVE REDUCED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SOMEWHAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT BUT KEPT THEM ON THE HIGH SIDE...EITHER LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) OR
CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) BASED ON LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS UP
JUST A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE ZONES.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009/

AVIATION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISENTROPIC%20LIFT) WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN PATCHES
OF MAINLY STRATIFORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATIFORM) LIGHT RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
RAIN AREA THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) EXTENDS NORTH FROM NEAR ALICE TEXAS TO A FRONTAL
WAVE NEAR LUFKIN.

FURTHER-UP...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR-FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) CORES THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BEFORE
TURNING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
SPREADING OUT. THE CYCLONIC ENERGY ATTENDING THIS JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) WILL MAINTAIN
A NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND HIGHLY DIFLUENT...WESTERLY TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) NEAR
AN ALBUQUERQUE TO BROWNSVILLE LINE.

CYCLOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) IS EXPECTED NEAR LUFKIN ON SATURDAY AS DIFLUENT WESTERLY
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) PERTURBS THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH).

DISCUSSION...

RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK LOW IS FORMING NEAR
COLLEGE STATION...WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONTOGENESIS) EXTENDING EASTWARD TO
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE MAINLY STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) RAIN WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE RAIN ON SATURDAY...AS THE PURPORTED
WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXITS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WITH THE STREAMING IN
OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSTABLE%20AIR) IN ITS WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE).

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LONG LIVED...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING RAIN POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WHILE THE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL.

MARINE...

MINOR TIDAL PILE-UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) STATEMENT HAS BE RE-ISSUED.

OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK)...

THE RAINS WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY EVENING...AS THE TEXAS
CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) ADVANCE EAST ACROSS SHREVEPORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 73 82 73 84 / 100 80 60 70
KBPT 72 84 72 85 / 100 80 60 60
KAEX 72 81 72 86 / 90 70 60 70
KLFT 72 82 73 84 / 100 80 60 70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Joe-Nathan

09-12-2009, 11:20 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1018 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

DISCUSSION

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWS BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN TX...NRN LA AND
SRN ARK. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE LCH
CWA...BUT RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NWRN GULF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW OVER CNTRL TX AND SFC TROUGH JUST OFF THE LA/TX COASTLINE.
CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE COVER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WELL WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN ZONES AND LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. 24

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
957 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 60 NM

A COASTAL TROUGH OR FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TIDAL PILE UP
ALONG THE COAST...WITH TIDES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
PREDICTED LEVELS.

SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-
957 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. LAKE WATERS SMOOTH. SHOWERS
LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. LAKE WATERS SMOOTH. SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. LAKE WATERS SMOOTH. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

VERMILION BAY-
957 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BAY WATERS SMOOTH. SHOWERS
LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BAY WATERS SMOOTH. SHOWERS
LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BAY WATERS SMOOTH. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOR

ROLLTIDE

09-13-2009, 03:29 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 130452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 12 2009

.AVIATION...
CLOUD DECKS ARE FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVE AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AREAS OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) DEVELOPING. RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) IS NOW
INDICATING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ACROSS INLAND
AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWS BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL)/NRN TX...NRN LA AND
SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) ARK. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE LCH
CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA)...BUT RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NWRN GULF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW OVER CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) TX AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) JUST OFF THE LA/TX COASTLINE.
CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE COVER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WELL WITH CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER THE NRN ZONES AND LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM). 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 12 2009/

AVIATION...
RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) THIS WILL LIMIT VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) FROM TIME TO
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) SEP 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF)/FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COASTS. A FRONTAL WAVE OR WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND MOVING UP THE TEXAS COAST. WATER VAPOR ALSO
SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS.

RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWS A GOOD SHIELD OF RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVING INTO FORECAST
AREA...AS SHORT WAVE INCREASES THE LIFT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
ACROSS THE QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE THE GREATEST AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVERGENCE). SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) MAY CAUSE SOME
PONDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PONDING) OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE TIDAL PILE-UP ALONG THE COAST HAS NOT ALLOWED MUCH WATER
DRAINAGE INTO THE GULF...ALLOWING WATER LEVELS ALONG THE LOWER
NECHES AND LOWER CALCASIEU RIVER TO BE NEAR FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) STAGE. THERE
IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
ROTATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ROTATION) AS THE MOVE ATOP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE RE-DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY HELP FOCUS SOME OF
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) FURTHER INLAND.

UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER) AROUND NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THEREFORE WILL BRING
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) DOWN TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) PREDICTED
LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SOME
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20FLOODING) IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES)...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE) READINGS SHOULD BE BELOW CRITICAL
READINGS FOR SERIOUS TIDAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) CONCERNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE AS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK-SIDE
AND MOVE INLAND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 73 83 73 84 73 / 60 60 40 40 30
KBPT 73 84 73 85 73 / 60 60 40 40 30
KAEX 71 82 71 85 71 / 50 60 40 50 30
KLFT 73 83 73 84 72 / 60 60 40 50 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

Joe-Nathan

09-13-2009, 08:27 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
745 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

NOW

THROUGH 9 AM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM CAMERON TO LAKE CHARLES AND
PECAN ISLAND TO LAFAYETTE. WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF LATER TODAY INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK OF
ISOLATED AND WEAK TORNADOES. OVER THE GULF WATERS...THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND...WILL RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM TRIGGERING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS LOW.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

DISCUSSION

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SMALLER LOBES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN GYRE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A TONGUE OF RELATIVELY DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR THAT HAS
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

AT THE SFC...LAND/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM A BROAD SFC LOW NEAR
THE MIDDLE TX COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS ON TAP...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAVING CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST 24HRS. THE SFC WARM FRONT MADE ALMOST NO NORTHWARD
PROGRESS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY CHANGE TODAY. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH THE SFC LOW CREEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH OF THE HWY 190 CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...SETTING OFF SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY...AS IS THE SLIM CHANCE OF A WEAK/SHORT LIVED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER.

THE EXACT POSITION/MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
FEATURES BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
THE OVERALL IDEA IS FOR BOTH TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...FINALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

VERY HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES TO DAY WILL DROP DOWN TO A LOW CHANCE
BY TUESDAY...AND FINALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BY FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ONCE
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY GETS OUT OF HERE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THIS
BY THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STUBBORN IN HOLDING ONTO THE
MID/UPPER LOW.

MARINE

A COASTAL TROUGH OR FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...GREATLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TIDAL PILE UP
ALONG THE COAST...WITH TIDES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
PREDICTED LEVELS.

Joe-Nathan

09-13-2009, 11:10 AM

Need to keep an eye out for more coastal and urban flooding!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1022 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

UPDATE

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1007 MB RIGHT ALONG THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY COAST MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXTENDING JUST INLAND THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. WITH THE BEST FETCH OF MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES...AND SURFACE LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN...SOME OF IT HEAVY...EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES
LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

RUA

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1011 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

SYNOPSIS FOR LOWER ATCHAFALAYA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 60 NM

A COASTAL TROUGH OR FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...GREATLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TIDAL PILE UP
ALONG THE COAST...WITH TIDES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
PREDICTED LEVELS.

ROLLTIDE

09-14-2009, 06:23 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 141016
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW JUST
WEST OF LFK...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW DISPLACED FURTHER NW ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ACROSS SE TX/LA. THE RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWS FEEDER BANDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FEEDER%20BANDS) OF
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD...DESPITE THE DRIER AIR
NOTED ON H20 SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) IMAGERY.

THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) AND UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY...CONTINUING
TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ACROSS THE REGION. PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
ABOVE 2" FOR MOST OF THE REGION...THUS YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WITH ANY GIVEN SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). FOR POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...WENT
WITH 50% FOR SE TX...AND 60% FOR C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) AND S LA. NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETE OVERCAST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OVERCAST) TODAY AS DAYS PAST...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE BETWEEN BANDS OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 80S.

WITH THE CONTINUED S FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...COASTAL TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND A
FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) OF 2 FEET THIS MORNING...YIELDING TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS 3.0 TO 3.2 FEET ACROSS COASTAL LA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
THE COASTAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SWING TOWARDS LOW
TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE)...AS WELL AS THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) BECOMING MORE SW TO W AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE) LEVELS
TO RETURN CLOSER TO PREDICTED LEVELS BY THE TIME THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE) ROLLS AROUND TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NE...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACROSS THE REGION BY
WED. DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW LATER THIS WEEK...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C)
LA WITH MID/UPPER 60S. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT ISO SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 87 74 86 73 86 / 60 40 40 20 20
KBPT 87 71 86 70 86 / 50 30 30 20 20
KAEX 85 70 88 69 88 / 60 40 50 20 20
KLFT 86 72 86 71 87 / 60 40 50 20 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

09-15-2009, 07:11 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 150956
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW OVER NW
LA...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW DISPLACED FURTHER NW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP A MIXTURE OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
FROM THE GULF AND POCKETS OF DRIER AIR FROM C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) TX. CURRENT RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR)
SHOWS ONE SUCH POCKET OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND LIFT PROVIDING SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) OUT 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

THE LATEST GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SHOW THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) AND UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER N LA/S AR THRU THU. THUS...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH CHANGE IN OUR PRECIP PATTERN...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES OF
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) OVER SE TX...AND THE GREATEST OVER C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) LA...CLOSER TO THE
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND LIFT. THE MIXTURE OF GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF SUNSHINE CHANGING TO AREAS OF CLOUDS WITH
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) SPIRALING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE LOW. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED BETWEEN SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THRU THU.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) AND UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW LIFTING VERY SLOWLY
NE FRI AND SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAVE THE REGION...AS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY SEEMS TO
PUSH THE EXIT OF THIS FEATURE A DAY LATER.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS)
2-4 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT) ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 86 74 86 71 87 / 40 30 30 30 40
KBPT 86 72 86 71 87 / 30 20 30 20 30
KAEX 87 70 87 68 85 / 50 30 40 30 40
KLFT 86 72 86 70 87 / 40 30 30 30 40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

ROLLTIDE

09-16-2009, 03:54 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.AVIATION...
UPPER LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) LOW OVER NORTHERN LA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS
ACROSS SE TX AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONES TO LOWER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO SLT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLT) CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OVER
CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER
THE AREA AND THE LINGERING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH...CANNOT
RULE OUT POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) ENTIRELY FOR TONIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
FAIRLY LOW CHANCES AT BEST. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) AND MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS. RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS THIS EVENING
INDICATE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA AND
INTERIOR SE TX. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) SHOWS GENERAL DRYING TREND
CONTINUING WITH PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) NOW DOWN TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...BUT ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE)
REMAINS QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC)
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) OVER CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW OVER THE LA/ARK
BORDER AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW OVER NE LA...WITH SLT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLT) CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) ELSEWHERE. SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE LOW SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER) OVER THE
REGION. REMAINDER OF FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM). UPDATES ZONES
HAVE BEEN SENT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009/

AVIATION...
PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE REGION CONTS TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS SWINGING DOWN FROM THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. STORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS VERNON PARISH AT
THIS TIME. CEILING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CEILING) AND VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) WILL DROP IN AND AROUND STORMS WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009/

SYNOPSIS...CENTER OF CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) OF THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) IS NEAR
RUSTON. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS WITHOUT A MEANS
OF REMOVAL, PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AT NIGHT AND BELOW DURING THE DAY. MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) RH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RH) GREATER THAN
70 PERCENT, K (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=K)-INDICES ABOVE 30 WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES KEEPS SPORADIC SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SEEMS TOO STRONG AND FAST ON THE NEXT COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PLUNGING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) IS SLOWER AND LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND
OF THE MODELS ON TEMP FORECASTS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 72 84 76 84 73 / 30 30 30 30 20
KBPT 71 85 72 85 72 / 30 20 20 20 20
KAEX 71 82 72 82 70 / 40 50 30 40 20
KLFT 73 82 74 83 72 / 30 40 30 30 20

Joe-Nathan

09-17-2009, 07:14 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOMEWHAT
LESS NUMEROUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTICED NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN CHANCES START TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO
A DRIER WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS A LITTLE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF
THIS LOW...CLOSER TO US. SO WITH PRECIP WATER STILL OVER 2
INCHES...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN FILL IN NEAR THE LOW...WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND INTO OUR NORTHERN AREA OF EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LA.
WILL CARRY SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THIS PESKY LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN OUR REGION...BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO WILL SEE DOWNWARD TREND OF
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE
FROM THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND EXTEND INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. ACADIANA REGION IS THE AREA MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST A LITTLE
BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A RATHER STRONG 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WHILE EARLIER MODEL RUNS THIS WEEK SHOWED TUESDAYS COLD FRONT
TO ABRUPTLY LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE CURRENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO...SO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-17-2009, 09:16 AM

FXUS64 KCRP 171101
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) PRODUCE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PD) FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) BE AFTER 09Z
TNT WHEN WRAP-AROUND MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) ASSCTD WITH THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) BEGIN ROTATING SWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SWD)
ACROSS THE NERN COASTAL BEND (VCT AREA).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEVELOPING WK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WK) COLD FNT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FNT) WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL)
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS AND SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) PORTIONS OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
THE WATERS WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. THE NET RESULT WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA)
TDA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TDA). AS A RESULT...BLV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BLV) THE AIRMASS WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED TO
SUPPORT PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) TDA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TDA). MEANWHILE...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TX WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) SHIFT SWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SWD) TDA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TDA) AND THEN FINALLY
EWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EWD) TNT AND FRI. THE EFFECT ON SOUTH TX WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) BE MINIMAL. SOME OF THE
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) AFFECT THE NERN AREAS THROUGH FRI BUT MOST
OF IT WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE MAIN CORE OF PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN)
ASSCTD WITH THIS LOW WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
CONTINUING STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) CONDITIONS ON FRI WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) LIMIT PCPN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PCPN) POTENTIAL TO
ALMOST NIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NIL). GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE QUITE CLOSE AND WERE FOLLOWED
CLOSELY.

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10-15
KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAKENING GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) AND INCREASING
THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND EVEN ALLOW A VERY
WK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WK) SEABREEZE TO TRY TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY. OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL)
ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH ITSELF AFTER MIDNIGHT TNT AND THE SAME SCENARIO
WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) REPEAT ITSELF ON FRI. SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WL) ONCE AGAIN AVG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AVG) 1-2 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT).

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW AS A TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DVLPS ACROSS W TX AND MEX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEX).
THE SW FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL TAP INTO PAC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PAC) MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
WILL TRACK TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)...A WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN
THE LOW LEVELS. ON SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP BUT AM EXPECTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO
BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD) PRECIP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEA%20BREEZE). BOTH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE UPPER
TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) THEREFORE AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) FOR SUN AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FOR NEXT WEEK
AND BOTH HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESS. THE LATEST GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOLN) SHOWS FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA)
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING
FARTHER W THAN YESTERDAY`S SOLN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOLN). A DEEPER CUT OFF LOW LOCATED OVER
TX OR JUST TO THE W OF TX WOULD MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) A SLOWER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE COLDFRONT AND WOULD ALSO MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) A WETTER PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO WED EVEN IF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA). WENT WITH A SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES THROUGH S TX BY
MID MORNING TUE AND RAIN CHCS DECREASE FROM N TO S FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHICH IS A BIT BROADBRUSHED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). KEPT SILENT 10 POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) THROUGH
WED DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF UPPER LOW LINGERING FARTHER WEST WITH
RESIDUAL PRECIP. AS FOR TEMPS...AM GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS
FROM TUE THRU WED...AS WELL AS LOWER DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AS LOW AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 71 92 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 90 68 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 98 74 96 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 95 69 94 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 93 70 91 75 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 95 68 94 69 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 94 70 93 72 92 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 92 73 91 75 89 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.CRP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CRP) WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)

Joe-Nathan

09-18-2009, 05:04 AM

Front on the way for mid week next week. Not as strong as earlier forecasted, but a front non the less.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART THE
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTICED
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM FURTHER WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CUTOFF
LOW ALOFT SPINNING EWD ACROSS NRN LA WHILE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SFC REFLECTION SITUATED OVER N-CNTL LA. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FILLING AS PROGGED BY THE MODELS WITH
REGIONAL 88DS SHOWING FAR LESS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT THIS
MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ALMOST NIL EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND EVEN HERE COVERAGE HAS BEEN LOWER THIS MORNING THAN
LAST 24-48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS ONCE AGAIN POPS. MID/UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO EJECT AND FILL TODAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
HIGH POPS. HOWEVER THE AREA HAS SEEN LESS COVERAGE THAN
ANTICIPATED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO HAVE TEMPERED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. THUS POPS RANGE FROM 50
PERCENT EXTREME NERN ZONES TO 30 PERCENT MUCH OF THE WRN/SRN
ZONES. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE THROUGH
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH SFC FEATURE GETS LEFT BEHIND SMACK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAKENING. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS SO WILL
BE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC LOW WEAKENS BY
SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING SWRLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP ALLOWING WEAK
IMPULSES TO BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION. THUS SMALL CHANCE POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

THE STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION. NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ERN CONUS TROF
WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT STALLS AS THE SHORTWAVE
CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS AROUND THE PLAINS STATES. HOW FAR THE FRONT
GETS BEFORE THE LOW CUTS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE POPS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOR NOW WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY ALONG
WITH A DEEP AND VERY MOIST SRLY FLOW ALOFT LINGERING WILL BE
KEEPING POPS KIND OF ON THE HIGH SIDE...AT LEAST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...BEST CHANCE FOR FLAGS WILL BE IF/WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-18-2009, 05:42 PM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 182131
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW
SITS NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA PER SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) AND VISIBLE SATELLITE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) OVER CENTRAL
MS...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPSTREAM) OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TX.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW/TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING...WITH THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW
CONTINUING A SLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST DRIFT. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT MAINLY TO COVER ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW WILL BE
CONFINED TO ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD)/SCTD SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW...AND HAVE
TAPERED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FROM A SILENT 10 OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TO JUST A
CHANCE OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...AS WILL
PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) VALUES >1.75 INCHES AND SUBTLE IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE
FAST WESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT. THUS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TO SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY...AND SMALL
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WERE RETAINED.

ON TUESDAY...THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH
WILL DRIVE A DECENT LATE SUMMER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) INTO THE AREA. INCREASED
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) WITH THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THOUGH
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WIND SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) LOOKS MORE MARGINAL...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) RIGHT AT 30KT.

THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) DIVERGE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
SINKING THE UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO OK AND THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) KEEPING IT
FARTHER NORTH OVER KS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR US IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH/EAST THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) GETS...AND WHETHER IT RETREATS
BACK OVER US. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WERE KEPT MINIMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MEANDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEANDER)
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREVAILING WESTERLY
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN ONSHORE RETURNING SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) ON TUESDAY. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 71 87 71 88 / 20 20 10 20
KBPT 70 87 71 88 / 20 10 10 20
KAEX 70 85 70 89 / 20 30 10 30
KLFT 73 87 72 88 / 20 30 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

ROLLTIDE

09-20-2009, 04:25 PM

XUS64 KLCH 202112
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
412 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) SHOWS MID/UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
WITHING BROADER LONGWAVE TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). POISED TO
DIVE INTO THIS MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) IS SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) ENERGY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

OVERALL...NOT TOO MANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS LEADING TO A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE.

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM)
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY VERSUS TODAY...WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SYNOPTIC%20SCALE) LIFT
PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO BE OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF UPPER JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) MAXING NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE ENERGY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CLOSE
OFF AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS...IN TURN...SENDS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EAST TEXAS...WHERE IT PROMPTLY RUNS INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DOWNSTREAM) AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE). WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CUT OFF...THE RESULT WILL BE A QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND A
POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TRAPPED ROUGHLY ALONG A SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA LINE. AND THERE IT WILL ROUGHLY SIT UNTIL THE
LOW EJECTS OUT.

THIS IS WHERE THE GLOBAL MODELS START TO DIVERGE...SINCE THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THE LOW WEST FOR A TIME...IT SHOWS THE
REMAINING FEATURES DISPLACED FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE
ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)...AND IS SLOWER TO FINALLY KICK THE LOW OUT. THIS SOLUTION
IS STILL BEING REGARDED AS AN OUTLIER...SO A BLEND OF THE LAST TWO
INITIALLY WETTER BUT QUICKER TO DRY US OUT ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) RUNS WERE USED FOR
THE EXTENDED...AND POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WERE GENERALLY RAISED A LITTLE EACH DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND HELD STEADY OR LOWERED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 73 89 73 87 / 10 30 20 60
KBPT 72 89 74 87 / 10 30 20 60
KAEX 72 88 72 87 / 10 30 30 70
KLFT 72 88 72 87 / 10 30 20 60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

Joe-Nathan

09-21-2009, 06:40 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...A WET WORK WEEK ON TAP...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING ARE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INTO SW LOUISIANA. SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY
SRLY WINDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF AND EAST WINDS MOVING IN FROM
CNTRL TEXAS ALLOWING FOR A RIBBON OF MOISTURE TO POOL FROM CRP TO
AEX TO SOUTH OF MLU. IN ADDITION SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHRTWV MOVING INTO EASTERN TX AT THIS TIME. WITH CLOUDY SKIES
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TDY.

A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WASHOUT OVER SE TX /SW LA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE CNTRL US ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES BY WED. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND THE RESULT WILL BY SHWRS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-21-2009, 01:06 PM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211603
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1103 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.UPDATE...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHRTWV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRTWV) MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DECREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FM) THE AREA...ALLOWING AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND WITH AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) HEATING COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) UP. THUS KEPT 30 PERCENT CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) OVER THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO HOURLY TEMP AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. UPDATED ZONES MAINLY TO ADJUST
WORDING...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST). 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

AVIATION...IR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IR) IMAGERY AND RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) SHOWING A BAND OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA PRODUCING
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORARATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL PRODUCE OCNL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OCNL) VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS) TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.
WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WITH TEMPO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS) LATE TNITE EXCEPT ARA WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)
COULD PRODUCE TEMPO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS).

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

.A WET WORK WEEK ON TAP...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING ARE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INTO SW LOUISIANA. SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY
SRLY WINDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF AND EAST WINDS MOVING IN FROM
CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) TEXAS ALLOWING FOR A RIBBON OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) FROM CRP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CRP) TO
AEX TO SOUTH OF MLU. IN ADDITION SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHRTWV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRTWV) MOVING INTO EASTERN TX AT THIS TIME. WITH CLOUDY SKIES
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TDY.

A COOL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WASHOUT OVER SE TX /SW LA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LVL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LVL) LOW WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) US ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES BY WED. MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND THE RESULT WILL BY SHWRS AND ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

K (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=K). KUYPER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 89 73 86 70 / 30 20 60 40
KBPT 89 74 86 69 / 30 20 60 40
KAEX 88 72 86 68 / 30 30 70 40
KLFT 88 72 86 70 / 30 20 60 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04

Joe-Nathan

09-22-2009, 07:17 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH
AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACADIANA.

$$

SWEENEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENTLY STALL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE BPT AREA SHORTLY. LCH AND AEX WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VIS IN
TSTMS BY THE NOON HOUR. PREDOMINANT TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TEMPO IFR FOR ALL EXCEPT
ARA AND LFT. MVFR CIG/VIS IN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LFT AND
ARA, JOINING THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF TERMINALS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

..TODAY STARTS THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...A COOL FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER NORTH TEXAS.
DALHART IS CURRENTLY AT 46... WHILE BEAUMONT HAS COOLED DOWN TO
80 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TODAY LOOKING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 80S. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL SAP ENERGY FROM LARGER STORMS.

THIS LATEST FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOMORROW AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH FROM UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY DRAG THE FRONT
EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT THE
FRONT WILL MODIFY ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL NOT REFLECT ANY FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...IN SHORT NO COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE GULF WILL FORCE MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG AND LIFT OVER THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

K. KUYPER

ROLLTIDE

09-22-2009, 10:37 AM

00
FXUS64 KLCH 221454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
954 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE A HUGE MASS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS NEAR THE COAST...COVERS MOST OF ERN TEXAS AND
MOVING E/NE. PREVIOUS THINKING STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENTLY STALL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE BPT AREA SHORTLY. LCH AND AEX WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIGS WITH IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS) IN
TSTMS BY THE NOON HOUR. PREDOMINANT TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CONDITIONS TEMPO IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) FOR ALL EXCEPT
ARA AND LFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LFT). MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CIG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIG)/VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS) IN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LFT) AND
ARA, JOINING THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) TERMINALS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

.TODAY STARTS THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...A COOL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER NORTH TEXAS.
DALHART IS CURRENTLY AT 46... WHILE BEAUMONT HAS COOLED DOWN TO
80 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TODAY LOOKING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 80S. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL SAP ENERGY FROM LARGER STORMS.

THIS LATEST FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOMORROW AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH FROM UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL FINALLY DRAG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MODIFY ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL NOT REFLECT ANY FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...IN SHORT NO COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE GULF WILL FORCE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) ALONG AND LIFT OVER THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

K (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=K). KUYPER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 84 72 84 71 85 / 80 60 60 30 50
KBPT 83 72 83 70 85 / 80 60 60 30 50
KAEX 82 70 83 69 85 / 80 60 60 40 50
KLFT 86 72 84 71 86 / 80 50 60 30 50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

09-23-2009, 07:04 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.AVIATION...

A MERIDIONAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...COMING TO A HALT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
LATER THIS MORNING.

GULF EASTERLIES WILL ASCEND ANTICYCLONICALLY WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE
FRONTAL SURFACE...UPGLIDING OVER THE NEWLY-ARRIVED GREAT-PLAINS AIR
FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

IFR CEILINGS WILL RISE TO THE MVFR LEVEL BY MIDMORNING. MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BRIEF AND LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE
FRONT EASES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS THE FRONT MAKES PROGRESS INTO THE GULF OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHORT TERM...WE CAUGHT A BREAK IN THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES OUT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS AND NOT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. RIDGING AT MID LEVELS,
OFFSHORE FLOW, THETA TROFFING, AND A MINOR CAP SHOULD HELP KEEP
COVERAGE AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT AND AMOUNTS ON THE MODERATE SIDE.

LONG TERM...TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE THANKS TO
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND INTO
THE WEEKEND. A BROAD WESTERN TROF TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION
AND SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS. LEANED MORE WITH THE EURO MODEL ON
TUESDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS
COMING OUT OF TEXAS AS THAT MODEL FORMS UP ANOTHER REX BLOCK
CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EURO SOLUTION.

MARINE...NEARLY REACHED CAUTION CRITERIA AS SOME WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SPILLED INTO THE WESTERN WATERS YESTERDAY EVENING BEHIND
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE COOL ADVECTION LOOKS ANEMIC TODAY AND
TNITE SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS.

SWEENEY

ROLLTIDE

09-23-2009, 02:32 PM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAFS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) TRENDS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND LIES
SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) HAS
REMAINED ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SO FAR ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP
TODAY AS THEY HAVE ALREADY OVERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER NORTH OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT NORTHWARD
INTO KLFT AND KARA OR IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. FOR NOW WILL SHOW VCSH
FOR KBPT...KLCH AND KAEX FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT VCTS AT KLFT WITH
TEMPO TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AT KARA WHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY IS MOST
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY). CEILINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVELS AT THE
AIRPORTS...BUT EXPECTING PREVAILING MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH N TO NNE WINDS 5-10 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS). IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REDEVELOP AROUND 08Z TONIGHT AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR)
CONDITIONS AT KAEX.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...RECENT SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITTING OVER THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON INTO SERN LA/SWRN MS AS
WELL AS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) FROM VERMILION
AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS SWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SWD)...PUSHING NWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWD) TOWARD THE COAST. 12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPEST MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER THE SERN
ZONES...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD THE NWRN ZONES. BASED ON
THESE FACTORS INHERITED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) LOOK FINE EXCEPT WILL BE UPPING
AFTERNOON POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) ACROSS THE SERN ZONES. ALL OTHER GRIDS FINE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

AVIATION...

A MERIDIONAL COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...COMING TO A HALT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
LATER THIS MORNING.

GULF EASTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EASTERLIES) WILL ASCEND ANTICYCLONICALLY WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE
FRONTAL SURFACE...UPGLIDING OVER THE NEWLY-ARRIVED GREAT-PLAINS AIR
FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS WILL RISE TO THE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVEL BY MIDMORNING. MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BRIEF AND LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EASES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MAKES PROGRESS INTO THE GULF OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHORT TERM...WE CAUGHT A BREAK IN THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES OUT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS AND NOT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. RIDGING AT MID LEVELS,
OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW), THETA TROFFING, AND A MINOR CAP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAP) SHOULD HELP KEEP
COVERAGE AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT AND AMOUNTS ON THE MODERATE SIDE.

LONG TERM...TRIMMED BACK ON POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE THANKS TO
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND INTO
THE WEEKEND. A BROAD WESTERN TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION
AND SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS. LEANED MORE WITH THE EURO MODEL ON
TUESDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
COMING OUT OF TEXAS AS THAT MODEL FORMS UP ANOTHER REX BLOCK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=REX%20BLOCK)
CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) OVER TEXAS. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EURO SOLUTION.

MARINE...NEARLY REACHED CAUTION CRITERIA AS SOME WEAK COLD
ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) SPILLED INTO THE WESTERN WATERS YESTERDAY EVENING BEHIND
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE COOL ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) LOOKS ANEMIC TODAY AND
TNITE SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 71 84 73 85 72 / 30 30 20 30 20
KBPT 69 83 72 85 71 / 30 30 20 30 20
KAEX 68 82 70 84 68 / 20 40 20 30 30
KLFT 72 85 73 86 72 / 30 30 20 30 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

Joe-Nathan

09-24-2009, 07:12 AM

4 YEARS AGO TODAY: HURRICANE RITA

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/rita/rita_main.php

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/2005/storms/rita/avhrr/N16L.JPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

.AVIATION...

A MERIDIONAL STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE LOUISIANA-
MISSISSIPPI BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO ASCEND ANTICYCLONICALLY WHEN IMPINGING
UPON THE FRONTAL SURFACE...UPGLIDING OVER THE RECENTLY-ARRIVED GREAT-
PLAINS AIR. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...CYCLONIC DESCENT WITHIN THE GREAT-PLAINS AIR
HAS PUSHED VFR CEILINGS DOWNWARD INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009/

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFTED OVER A SHALLOW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS STALLED JUST BEYOND ATCHAFALAYA BAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. DURATION OF ANY RAINFALL WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF
COMPARED WITH AREAS AFFECTED.

SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE A COMPROMISING 50 PERCENT POPS WHICH
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT A LARGE AREAL COVERAGE WITH SHORT AND TEMPORAL
RAINFALL WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. MOIST AIR IS BEING SHUNTED NORTH AND
EAST WHERE BETTER LIFT IS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
EVENING SOUNDING WAS A VERY MOIST ONE WITH PRECIP WATER NEARLY 2.4
INCHES PUSHED BY A K-INDEX OF 38, MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
RESULTING FROM A GENTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE.
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE SPEED DIVERGENCE IN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS OUR RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...ADDED POPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL ENCOUNTER A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER TROF TRANSITING FROM THE
WEST. ONCE THE TROF AXIS PASSES LATE SATURDAY, A DRYING TREND WILL
SET IN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...MAINTAINED CAUTION FOR WATERS WEST OF CAMERON WHERE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KICKING UP THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AROUND MID MORING ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

11

&&

Joe-Nathan

09-25-2009, 06:33 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
522 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM LOWER ACADIANA OUT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WASH OUT HOWEVER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AREA RADARS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THANKS
TO THE PERSISTENT COMBINED PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE RIDING
ISENTROPICALLY OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE TODAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA AROUND THE
PEREPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL FIND IT TOUGH GOING TO BE ACHIEVED, THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT H3 DIVERGENCE FOR OCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR REASONING WITH CHANCE
POPS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TODAY. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES CAN GO ON
WITH ONLY NUISANCE PRECIP COVERING WIDE AREAS. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY EXCEPT FOR THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE BPT AND LCH AREAS. THOSE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN UPWARD MOTION LATE TNITE THANKS TO A HINT OF A
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD ON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY, THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH AROUND
SUNDOWN EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH RIDGING FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WITH AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THE TIMING. CHOSE
TO LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND SLOWER EURO MODEL.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. MAINTAINING A CAUTION FOR THOSE WATERS.

11

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-25-2009, 12:00 PM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 251537
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1037 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.UPDATE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE INLAND ZONES AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)...WITH SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
CUMULUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUMULUS) IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...BREAKS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS ACADIANA. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP FROM EAST TO
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS WILL
OCCUR. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA FOR TODAY WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MOST LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO
LINGER...BUT RAISED THEM IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS SHOULD
RISE QUICKLY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SE LA AND THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE APPEARS TO STILL
BE OVERDOING POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD WITH HIGHEST
LEVELS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. MADE OTHER VARIOUS ADJUSTMENTS
TO GRIDS WITH FORECAST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009/

AVIATION...

GULF EASTERLIES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=EASTERLIES) CONTINUE TO ASCEND ANTICYCLONICALLY WHEN IMPINGING
UPON THE FRONTAL SURFACE...UPGLIDING OVER THE RECENTLY-ARRIVED
GREAT-PLAINS AIR.

IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CATEGORY BY
MIDMORNING. ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM LOWER ACADIANA OUT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) SUPPORT
TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD WEAKEN AND WASH OUT HOWEVER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AREA RADARS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS).
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THANKS
TO THE PERSISTENT COMBINED PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RIDING
ISENTROPICALLY OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE TODAY. A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA AROUND THE
PEREPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL FIND IT TOUGH GOING TO BE ACHIEVED, THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT H3 DIVERGENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DIVERGENCE) FOR OCNL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OCNL) RUMBLES OF THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER)
TODAY.

SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR REASONING WITH CHANCE
POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TODAY. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES CAN GO ON
WITH ONLY NUISANCE PRECIP COVERING WIDE AREAS. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) AT BAY EXCEPT FOR THE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE)
ENERGY INTO THE BPT AND LCH AREAS. THOSE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN UPWARD MOTION LATE TNITE THANKS TO A HINT OF A
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET). PERSISTENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PERSISTENCE) IS THE WORD ON TEMPS.

LONG TERM...AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) LIGHT SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY, THE LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL SWING THROUGH AROUND
SUNDOWN EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH RIDGING FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUBSIDENCE) AND A LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR
ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WITH AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THE TIMING. CHOSE
TO LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND SLOWER EURO MODEL.

MARINE...PERSISTENT GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WEAKENS. MAINTAINING A CAUTION FOR THOSE WATERS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 84 73 86 71 89 / 30 20 30 10 10
KBPT 82 73 86 71 88 / 30 20 30 10 10
KAEX 84 71 87 68 89 / 30 20 30 10 10
KLFT 88 73 85 71 89 / 40 20 40 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

Joe-Nathan

09-25-2009, 04:20 PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET

AT 400 PM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED A REPORT OF
A FUNNEL CLOUD LOCATED SOUTH OF ERATH BY THE SHERIFF'S OFFICE.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
THE SEA-BREEZE COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

Joe-Nathan

09-26-2009, 07:54 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

AVIATION

LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SW TO
NE ACRS THE NW GULF INTO SRN LA. THE NRN EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS
IS REACHING THE KARA TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH VISBY AT KLFT DOWN TO 3/4SM AND CIGS AROUND 100 FT FOR BOTH
KLFT AND KARA. ELSEWHERE...CIGS AND VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT KBPT AND KLCH WHILE CIGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY AT KAEX AROUND 700 FT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MAINTAINED VCSH AT TAF SITES FOR TODAY...WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE-POINT LOW OVER NORTHWEST OHIO...
THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...BECOMING A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH BATON ROUGE THROUGH MARSH
ISLAND TO JUST OFFSHORE CORPUS CHRISTI. THE ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

A COLORADO HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE SHALLOW COLORADO HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE DEEPER GULF-OF-MEXICO HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

FURTHER-UP...SALIENT SHORTWAVES IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING...EXITING INTO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...

A NEAR SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MONROE THROUGH
LUFKIN THROUGH COLLEGE STATION. CONSEQUENT TRAPPED MOISTURE IS
MAINTAINING A LOW GREY CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE STALLED MORNING FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ADVECTING SOUTHERN PLAINS AIR WILL
QUICKLY ERODE THE LOW GREY CLOUD DECK...FROM WEST TO EAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. PASSING
SHORTWAVES THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFT TO RELEASE THE
MOIST GRAVITATIONAL INSTABILITY (OR MOIST CAPE) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES STRATIFY NORTH-TO-SOUTH...WITH SEASONAL
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS AND LAKES REGION
..WHILE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES WILL RIGHT-ANGLE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS
..MAKING FOR MINOR CONFUSED SEAS. THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL
BE RUNNING AROUND 6 SECONDS...DUE MAINLY TO THE SWELLS.

OUTLOOK...

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES ON TUESDAY...COMING TO HALT NEAR A LINE FROM HOUSTON TO MIAMI
ON WEDNESDAY.

ROLLTIDE

09-27-2009, 09:33 PM

....

Joe-Nathan

09-28-2009, 07:21 AM

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY!!!
Lows will be in the upper 50's Wednesday morning.
Then return to normal before the Weekend;-(

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12 TAF ISSUANCE...
SOME BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF FORECAST BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DECENT AND SOME LIFT NOTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LOW SPINNING
NEAR THE GRT LKS REGION...WITH A TROUGH ACRS MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS. A RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. OVER THE AREA...WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WAS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FM NRN TX ACRS ARK NE TOWARD
WRN TN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT S TO SWRLY WINDS WERE MAINTAINING
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MAINLY BELOW 900 MB PER 00Z KLCH
SOUNDING AND RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED CLR
SKIES OVER SE TX AND LA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
LAKES AREA OF TX INTO W CNTRL LA...WHILE RADARS ARE QUIET THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SET UP THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GT LKS WILL LIFT NE WHILE THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WEAK
RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EAST ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTN AND THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER WARM AFTN EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO NR 90...BUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING...LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AFTN HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACRS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NR NORMAL ACRS SRN ZONES...WHILE
LOWS WED MORNING COULD REACH LOWER 50S OVER CNTRL LA...LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX INTO SW LA.

SFC HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT TAKING
SHAPE OVER WRN TX BY THURSDAY. SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT...WITH CHC POPS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A STRENGTHENING
JET...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS DEPICTS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. MADE FEW
CHANGES TO POP GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SEAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
TREK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-28-2009, 11:35 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

...LAST DAY OF SUMMER...OH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OH) WELL SUCH IS LIFE...

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP "TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S" AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO BRING THE
FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL...LOCALLY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND IN THE 60S IN OKLAHOMA...WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
LCH AND BPT ARE CURRENTLY AT 87 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY UPDATES.

FOR THOSE THAT ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
"LATE"/EVENING TIME FRAME.

&&

K (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=K). KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12 TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...
SOME BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) FORECAST BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING.

A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE DECENT AND SOME LIFT NOTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THAT THE PROBABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROBABILITY) OF
SHOWERS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LOW SPINNING
NEAR THE GRT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRT) LKS REGION...WITH A TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). A RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) WAS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. OVER THE AREA...WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT WAS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.

AT THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)...A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) STRETCHED FM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FM) NRN TX ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) ARK NE TOWARD
WRN TN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...LIGHT S TO SWRLY WINDS WERE MAINTAINING
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MAINLY BELOW 900 MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB) PER 00Z KLCH
SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) AND RECENT VAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VAD) WIND PROFILES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED CLR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLR)
SKIES OVER SE TX AND LA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) DEVELOPING OVER THE
LAKES AREA OF TX INTO W CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA...WHILE RADARS ARE QUIET THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SET UP THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GT LKS WILL LIFT NE WHILE THE NEXT
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WEAK
RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EAST ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING NWRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SOUTH INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) AND THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) POOLING
OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER WARM AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO NR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NR) 90...BUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING...LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS)
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NR) NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) ZONES...WHILE
LOWS WED MORNING COULD REACH LOWER 50S OVER CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) LA...LOWER 60S
ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) LOWER SE TX INTO SW LA.

SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH PRES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRES) WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TAKING
SHAPE OVER WRN TX BY THURSDAY. SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT...WITH CHC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CHC) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES THROUGH. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND A STRENGTHENING
JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET)...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) DEPICTS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) HALF OF THE AREA. MADE FEW
CHANGES TO POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXPECTED TO
TREK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 91 65 83 63 83 / 20 10 0 0 0
KBPT 92 66 85 63 84 / 20 10 0 0 0
KAEX 90 59 81 54 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
KLFT 92 65 83 59 83 / 20 10 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

09-29-2009, 07:38 AM

Cool/Dry front pushed through last night!!!
But it will be short lived :-(

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING NOTED ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT
ELEVATED SHOWER ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH
AT KBPT TAF FROM 29/15Z THROUGH 29/21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACRS QUEBEC PER THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE EAST COAST. AS
THIS TROUGH EXITS THE CONUS...ANOTHER ONE...OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER
MAKER...WAS MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...PROVIDING NWRLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
STATES. ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SE TX
INTO SW LA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMBINING WITH A SFC FRONT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY TOWARD THE CNTRL TX COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FM S OF SAT TO
THE COAST NEAR GALVESTON...CONTINUING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
TOWARD THE FLA PANHANDLE. WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY ACRS SW AND
CNTRL LA AND SE TX WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
DESPITE THE FROPA...THERE IS A SLT CHC FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACRS LOWER SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS AFTN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
USHERING IN COOLER DRIER AIR AND PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER
OFFSHORE. WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING OVER THE AREA...HIGHS THIS
AFTN EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AFTN...IN
THE LOWER 80S. SOME OF THE COOLEST LOWS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL LA.

BY THURSDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SHAPING UP AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW SFC PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER WRN KS IN RESPONSE...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING S INTO WRN TX. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN ZONES.

PRECIP WATER EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE FROPA A BIT
EARLIER...CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
THUS EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
NOON...SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTN. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...THE
HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG
OVER THE WRN STATES ON SUNDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE W
TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE AFTN AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MORNINGS.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

ROLLTIDE

09-29-2009, 11:58 AM

....

Joe-Nathan

09-30-2009, 06:53 AM

Going into a very progressive/active pattern over the next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.AVIATION...NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BRAZZELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STARTING OUT THE FORECAST WITH VERY NICE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES.

THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF
RESUMES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HUMIDITY VALUES.

BY THURSDAY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. INTO
THE PLAINS THEN THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE AFTERNOON REACHING OFF THE COAST BY EVENING. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER 2 INCHES TO NEAR 2.25 INCHES. ALSO...PROGS SHOULD VERY
GOOD FRONTAL LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE LATEST SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC IN OUTLINED.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. GOOD MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLIER NEXT WEEK...WITH A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RUA

....WTF....??

ROLLTIDE

09-30-2009, 12:05 PM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IN THE AREA (12Z LCH SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) PRECIP H20 0.90").
CURRENT TEMPS AS OF 10 AM ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY AFTERNOON`S END...WHICH IS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

AVIATION...NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) CYCLE WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BRAZZELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STARTING OUT THE FORECAST WITH VERY NICE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES.

THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OFF THE GULF
RESUMES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND
HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY) VALUES.

BY THURSDAY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW)...SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. INTO
THE PLAINS THEN THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE AFTERNOON REACHING OFF THE COAST BY EVENING. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH PWAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PWAT) VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER 2 INCHES TO NEAR 2.25 INCHES. ALSO...PROGS SHOULD VERY
GOOD FRONTAL LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS)
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT. BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) SEEM TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE LATEST SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) FROM SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) IN OUTLINED.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH RETURN
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) QUICKLY OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. GOOD MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLIER NEXT WEEK...WITH A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW). SO WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS
GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS SURFACE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL THEN DEVELOP IN WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 83 68 85 72 82 / 0 0 20 30 60
KBPT 83 70 86 74 82 / 0 0 30 40 60
KAEX 82 61 85 70 80 / 0 0 20 60 40
KLFT 83 65 85 72 80 / 0 0 20 30 60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-01-2009, 08:34 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

AVIATION

FOR THE 01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE GULF MOISTURE AND THUS AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS NEAR TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A DEEPENING CYCLONE
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NO RAIN ON THE
RADAR NEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER REGIONAL RADARS DO
INDICATE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INLAND.

LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE LOCAL 5 KM WRF INDICATES THAT PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE TO EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO POOL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE
TEXARKANA REGION SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON AREA. THE WRF
INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SB CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO GET UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...SO
MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GET A DRIVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE
CYCLONE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. IN
ADDITION TO ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY HANG AROUND THIS
EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX NORTHEAST. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER THAN TODAY IN POST FRONT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS
IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF DIFFERENT LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHOULD SPELL A RATER
CLOUDY PERIOD COMING UP WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WERE RAISED THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH TEMPERATES LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND GENERALLY BELOW THE
MEX GUIDANCE.

BRAZZELL

ROLLTIDE

10-01-2009, 10:54 AM

Joe-Nathan

10-02-2009, 06:23 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60
NM. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 60 NM SOUTH OF CAMERON. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

MEANWHILE..SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH RATES
UP TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

$$

RUA

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING WITH NEARLY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY...AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.UPDATE...TWEAKED THE GRIDS BASED ON RADAR AND UPDATED THE ZFP
AND CWF TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY AS PREDICTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CG LIGHTNING LEVELS
HAS DROPPED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE LINE ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARISHES. PEAK WINDS ALONG THE LINE
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 30 TO 35 MPH. WILL TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING. WITH FRONT PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
GOOD THTE ADVECTION WORKING BACK INTO SE TEXAS TONIGHT...ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE RAISED AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY
AS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INTERACT TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AOA 2 INCHES. STRONG SOUTHERN JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL AID IN TRIGGERING CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOB
NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

HAVE DROPPED NORTHERN 1/2 OF PARISHES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH 755 WITH
THE 4AM ZONE ISSUANCE.

MARINE...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AS CONVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-02-2009, 01:03 PM

...

ROLLTIDE

10-04-2009, 08:29 AM

Joe-Nathan

10-05-2009, 07:27 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
809 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0735 PM TORNADO 1 SSW CHURCH POINT 30.39N 92.22W
10/04/2009 ACADIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ACADIANA SHERIFF REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHURCH POINT OFF OF GULF COURSE ROAD.
POWER LINES AND TRANSFORMERS REPORTED DOWN WITH DAMAGE TO
A BARN.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT
60 NAUTICAL MILES. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM
PECAN ISLAND TO ABBEVILLE AND NEW IBERIA. WITHIN THE STRONGER
STORMS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

[
COLOR="DarkRed"].AVIATION...[/COLOR]
FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ENE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AFFECTING
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...IFR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...CEILINGS WILL LIFT ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONT
MEANDERS BACK NORTH...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS WEEK... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES TO JUST
NORTH OF LAFAYETTE. TEMPS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES RANGE
TO NEAR 60 BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA
LATER TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ARCADIAN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND A RETURN FLOW OF
WARM MOIST AIR WILL INVADE THE ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL
BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER
HEAD AND FRONTS TRYING TO DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THANKS
TO THE WSW FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL RETREAT LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE END OF THE WEEK FRONT APPEARS TO
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A 1038MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING A 1041MB HIGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME TO A HALT TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF
WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

nightrider

10-05-2009, 10:49 AM

ROLLTIDE

10-05-2009, 01:29 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLCH 051724
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1224 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 05/18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...
QUASI-STATIONARY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QUASI-STATIONARY) FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM FROM AROUND
GALVESTON BAY TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST THEN BACK
INLAND AROUND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BASIN). IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS BEHIND THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT TO VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) LEVELS AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LEVELS AT KAEXT BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO AGAIN BE TRAPPED BELOW FRONTAL
INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) TONIGHT WITH IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS RETURNING BY 06/06Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

UPDATE...NEW DISCUSSION AVAILABLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM GALVESTON TO NEAR PATTERSON
LOUISIANA. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE INLAND
AREA BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION). AFTERNOON HIGHS VERY DEPENDANT ON THINNING
OR BREAKS DEVELOPING IN CURRENT CLOUD COVER. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT CLOUDS WILL
HOLD. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

AVIATION...
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MEANDERING ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS MORNING. SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ENE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AFFECTING
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)/MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...CEILINGS WILL LIFT ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MEANDERS BACK NORTH...BUT WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS WEEK... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES TO JUST
NORTH OF LAFAYETTE. TEMPS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES RANGE
TO NEAR 60 BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA
LATER TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ARCADIAN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL WASH OUT AND A RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OF
WARM MOIST AIR WILL INVADE THE ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL
BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL).

AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE) SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET%20STREAM) OVER
HEAD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HEAD) AND FRONTS TRYING TO DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THANKS
TO THE WSW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WSW) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT. THE NEXT FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW WITH SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK)
FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL RETREAT LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE END OF THE WEEK FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPEARS TO
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH WITH THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)
SHOWING A 1038MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
SHOWING A 1041MB HIGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).

MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME TO A HALT TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND A RETURN FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OFF THE GULF
WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UNSETTLED) WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 82 75 89 73 87 / 40 20 30 20 40
KBPT 82 75 90 76 86 / 40 20 30 20 40
KAEX 75 69 87 69 80 / 20 20 40 30 30
KLFT 82 75 90 73 87 / 50 20 30 20 40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-06-2009, 07:09 AM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

.THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOISTURE RICH GULF AIR...SATURATED
GROUNDS...AND CALM WINDS IS RESULTING OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING.

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TOWARDS SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY TO U.S. 190. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN
THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU AS
VISIBILITIES CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...PROVIDING A VERY MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SE TX...WHERE
TEMPS/DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THE COAST...WHICH
IS VERY UNUSUAL EVEN FOR EARLY OCTOBER. ELSEWHERE...LOWER/MID 70S
DEWPTS/TEMPS PREVAIL OVER S LA...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S OVER C LA.
THUS...STILL HAVE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG U.S.
190. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY
CALM HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH
VSBY BELOW 1/4 MILE AT KLCH AND KLFT...AND DECREASING AT KARA AS
OF THIS WRITING.

THE NORTHERN RETREAT OF THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL AND SFC STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY BLOWING
THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS THIS MORNING...EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSRA ALONG A LINE
FROM JUST S OF LFK TO AEX AND POINTS NORTH ACROSS NE TX/N LA. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE WSW...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE TX/S
LA BY WED MORNING. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR
PERTURBATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING...THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FOCUS FOR A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THRU WED AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
WED EVENING INTO THU.

TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH NEAR 90/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
VALUES...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOW NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AND NEAR 80
FOR HIGHS!

LETS DO IT AGAIN FOR FRI...WITH ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO
BRING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI/SAT TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THIS FRONT
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE S PROGRESSION...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HANG
UP ACROSS THE N GULF. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN FROPA...AND HOW MUCH CLEARING AND CAA WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND.

DML

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-06-2009, 10:58 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=20&glossary=1) 21 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=21&glossary=1) 22 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=22&glossary=1) 23 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=23&glossary=1) 24 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=24&glossary=1) 25 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=25&glossary=1) 26 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=26&glossary=1) 27 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=27&glossary=1) 28 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=28&glossary=1) 29 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=29&glossary=1) 30 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=30&glossary=1) 31 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=31&glossary=1) 32 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=32&glossary=1) 33 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=33&glossary=1) 34 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=34&glossary=1) 35 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=35&glossary=1) 36 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=36&glossary=1) 37 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=37&glossary=1) 38 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KLCH 061354
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD JOURNEY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).
INCREASING SOUTHERLIES AND A WARM OCTOBER SUN WILL ERODE AWAY THE
FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AROUND 10 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS BUT KBPT THIS
MORNING. VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED AT KLCH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE. SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT)-BKN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BKN) MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE
LOW/CLOUDS FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) LIFT...WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) FORECAST TO PREVAIL BY THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLD) SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR)...AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED)...VICINITY WAS USED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE
NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COOL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).
PROBABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROBABILITY) WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SO A PROB GROUP FOR THUNDER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDER) WAS USED FOR KAEX.
CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WAS LEFT OUT OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS SINCE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY)
RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...PROVIDING A VERY MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RICH SOUTHERLY
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OFF THE GULF. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SE TX...WHERE
TEMPS/DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THE COAST...WHICH
IS VERY UNUSUAL EVEN FOR EARLY OCTOBER. ELSEWHERE...LOWER/MID 70S
DEWPTS/TEMPS PREVAIL OVER S LA...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S OVER C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) LA.
THUS...STILL HAVE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ROUGHLY ALONG U.S.
190. SOUTH OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY
CALM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CALM) HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH
VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) BELOW 1/4 MILE AT KLCH AND KLFT...AND DECREASING AT KARA AS
OF THIS WRITING.

THE NORTHERN RETREAT OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY BLOWING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BLOWING)
THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS THIS MORNING...EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) DEVELOPING ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) FOR SVR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SVR) TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ALONG A LINE
FROM JUST S OF LFK TO AEX AND POINTS NORTH ACROSS NE TX/N LA. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE WSW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WSW)...THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL STALL ACROSS SE TX/S
LA BY WED MORNING. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR
PERTURBATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING...THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL KEEP THE FOCUS FOR A CHANCE OF
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) THRU WED AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) BY
WED EVENING INTO THU.

TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH NEAR 90/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
VALUES...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) LA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOW NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AND NEAR 80
FOR HIGHS!

LETS DO IT AGAIN FOR FRI...WITH ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO
BRING ANOTHER FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI/SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA). THIS FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE S PROGRESSION...EXPECTING THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO HANG
UP ACROSS THE N GULF. THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)/ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAVE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA)...AND HOW MUCH CLEARING AND CAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAA) WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 91 74 86 76 91 / 30 40 40 20 20
KBPT 92 75 85 76 88 / 30 40 30 20 20
KAEX 88 71 80 70 89 / 40 50 30 20 20
KLFT 92 74 86 75 90 / 30 40 40 20 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-07-2009, 07:03 AM

81 degrees at 6am this morning!!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA OVER NE
TX/N LA...EXTENDING FROM LFK TO IER TO TVR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
MOISTURE RICH AND WARM GULF AIR PLAGUES THE REGION...WITH DEWPTS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THE COAST...WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. PATCHY/INTERMITTENT FOG IS OBSERVED OVER AND ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...VSBY A MOST REPORTING TERMINALS HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA OF 1/4 MILE VSBY. DON`T BELIEVE
IT WILL LOWER...AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO
GENERATE ISO SHRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

THE COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A TAD FURTHER SOUTHWARD BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS C LA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK RETREAT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT THE CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY
SUNSET. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE AGAIN...WHICH IS
RECORD TERRITORY. KEEP IN MIND THE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SHOW NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AND NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS!

A MUCH LARGER AND SLOWER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AND GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE TX AND STALL
ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTS...AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
FROM THE WSW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOWLY
EVOLVES INTO A NW FLOW BY MON...A SECONDARY HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH
MON AND TUE...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 78 91 78 87 / 40 10 20 20 50
KBPT 89 79 88 79 85 / 40 10 20 30 60
KAEX 84 75 89 75 84 / 40 10 20 20 50
KLFT 88 78 90 78 87 / 40 10 20 20 40

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-07-2009, 12:41 PM

...

Joe-Nathan

10-08-2009, 07:02 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
521 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RETREATING WARM FRONT JUST N OF THE
AREA OVER NE TX/N LA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY MOISTURE RICH AND
WARM GULF AIR PLAGUES THE REGION...WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ON THE COAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE VERY UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. PATCHY/INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG IS OBSERVED OVER C
LA AT AEX AND ESF...WHERE DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPS FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

FOR OUR REGION TODAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BASK IN UNSEASONABLE
WARM TEMPS AND DEWPTS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. WITH
DEWPTS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL
AVERAGE NEAR TO THE LOWER 100S! YES...I DO HAVE TO CHECK THE
DATE...REALIZING IT`S OCTOBER 8TH AND NOT AUGUST 8TH. WITH MOST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT STILL NW OF THE REGION...ONLY EXPECT ISO
SHRA/TSRA TODAY.

A MUCH LARGER AND SLOWER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AND GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE RICH AIR AHEAD OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM...AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...RAINFALL WILL BE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...PRELIMINARY AREA QPF
VALUES COULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
THRU SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BY
SAT...BUT STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE UPPER TX AND LA
COASTS...AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FROM THE WSW OVER THE
REGION. NOW HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSES REMAINS A DEBATE BETWEEN
THE MODELS...BUT ALL HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE FRONT TO STALL FURTHER
N OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...HAD TO RE-ADJUST POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...NOW KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY WED...THE FORECAST SHOWS AN END
TO THE PRECIP...BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE RETREATING
HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 79 86 64 75 / 20 20 60 80 50
KBPT 91 79 85 63 76 / 20 20 80 80 50
KAEX 93 76 85 61 70 / 20 20 60 80 50
KLFT 91 79 86 68 77 / 20 20 60 80 50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

nightrider

10-08-2009, 09:48 AM

Joe-Nathan

10-08-2009, 01:58 PM

That warm gulf air is streaming this morning. Should help ignite some storms near the front later this evening, of course well north of us. I hope we can get a daytime event this weekend. Would be nice to have light to film.

Day light would be nice. I have driven out to the levee a couple of times, recently to work on some night time photography and videoing. Had some real good lightning producers, but I did not get anything nice on the camera. Plus the mosquitoes have be murderous.

ROLLTIDE

10-08-2009, 03:19 PM

...

Joe-Nathan

10-09-2009, 06:50 AM

IT IS GOING TO GET BUSY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT!
MAKE SURE YOUR WEATHER ALERT RADIO HAS FRESH BATTERIES!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LOTS OF RAINFALL...EXPECTING ONE TO THREE INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ALSO...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE BACK NORTH
BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS N AND NE
TX...WITH A SOLID AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY MOISTURE RICH AND WARM GULF AIR
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE REGION...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 70S. THE
STRONG S WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE RESULTED IN TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE
USUAL LOW SPOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...WHICH IS NOW.

FOR OUR REGION TODAY...THERE`S NO QUESTION THAT ITS GOING TO
RAIN...BUT HOW MUCH. FOR THE ONSET OF SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA THROUGH
SAT MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
E TX/C LA...WHERE PRELIMINARY AREA QPF VALUES COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THRU SAT MORNING. ACROSS S
LA...EXPECT 1-2 CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SAT MORNING. ALSO...A FEW OF
THE TSRA COULD REACH SVR LIMITS WITH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS...SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BY
SAT...BUT STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE UPPER TX AND LA
COASTS...AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FROM THE WSW OVER THE
REGION. NOW HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSES REMAINS A DEBATE BETWEEN
THE MODELS...BUT ALL HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE FRONT TO STALL FURTHER
N OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...HAD TO RAISE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH TSRA DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG AND BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GREATLY AFFECT
THE EXPECTED QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE
COOLEST TEMPS TO BE ACROSS SE TX/C LA THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL.

BY MON...THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...BRING AND END TO
THE BRIEF COOL DOWN. THE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER AIR PATTER REMAINS FROM THE W OR
WSW...BRINGING INTERMITTENT PERTURBATIONS TO GENERATE THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL. TYPICAL EL NINO FALL WEATHER.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE IN SCA THRU SAT MORNING FOR POST
FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW OF 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 63 74 62 73 / 90 90 50 40 40
KBPT 85 61 74 62 73 / 90 90 30 20 40
KAEX 84 59 72 55 70 / 90 90 50 40 40
KLFT 89 66 74 61 74 / 90 90 50 40 40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

nightrider

10-09-2009, 07:19 AM

With day time heating and moisture I think it will get busy way before night fall and I hope it does.

nightrider

10-09-2009, 08:44 AM

That front line is exploding right now.

Joe-Nathan

10-12-2009, 07:08 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PSBL TDY. IFR THRU ABOUT 16Z
FROM CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR
BUT WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BAND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA TO HOUSTON
ALIGNS WITH 925 MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOW
MOVING ONSHORE. SURFACE OBS DEPICTING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AREAS OF FOG. FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR RAINS WILL END FOG.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS SOUTH...CATEGORICAL NORTH TODAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY
TO SERVE AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRONT PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY DAYS END.
AREA TO REMAIN IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
LESSEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HAVE
TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES BACK ACCORDINGLY.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY IN SWINGING MOST
SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH TO DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. AFTER
FROPA...LOOKING FOR AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WITH WARMS DAYS BUT
VERY COOLS NIGHTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTH FROM THE GULF WATERS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING. THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING.

&&

Joe-Nathan

10-12-2009, 10:07 AM

Yes that was some unusually warm air last week:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009

..NUMEROUS RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS WEEK

PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 9TH...AN
UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR EARLY OCTOBER WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALLOWED FOR NUMEROUS RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE SET FROM SUNDAY OCTOBER 4TH TO THURSDAY OCTOBER
8TH. SOME OF THESE READINGS WERE ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER.

LOCATION DATE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD
-------- --------- ---------- ----------
BEAUMONT THU OCT 8 80 IN 2009 80 IN 1941

LAFAYETTE WED OCT 7 79 IN 2009* 76 IN 1962
THU OCT 8 78 IN 2009 73 IN 1999

LAKE CHARLES TUE OCT 6 75 IN 2009 75 IN 1982
WED OCT 7 77 IN 2009 74 IN 1949
THU OCT 8 81 IN 2009* 76 IN 1916

NEW IBERIA SUN OCT 4 74 IN 2009 74 IN 1990
TUE OCT 6 74 IN 2009 74 IN 2000
WED OCT 7 77 IN 2009 77 IN 2004
THU OCT 8 76 IN 2009 76 IN 1997

* ALL-TIME RECORD FOR MONTH OF OCTOBER

Now when the gust/cool front passed through on Friday there were several reports of the temp dropping 15+ degrees in a matter of 10 minutes. This Gust/cool front also caused a fatality in Cameron ph, LA. The avg speed of the gust was 50mph at the surface.

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW CREOLE 29.81N 93.16W
10/09/2009 CAMERON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** CAMERON PARISH SHERIFF OFFICE AND LOCAL
MEDIA REPORTED A PARAMEDIC WAS KILLED WHEN A TRAILER AT
SOUTH CAMERON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL WAS BLOWN OFF ITS BLOCKS
AND PINNED HIM AGAINST A VEHICLE.

0238 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSE CHURCH POINT 30.39N 92.21W
10/09/2009 M64.00 MPH ACADIA LA PUBLIC

A HOME WEATHER STATION REPORTED 57 MPH GUSTING TO 64 MPH
NEAR CHURCH POINT. TEMPERATURES FELL FROM 88 TO 64 IN
LESS THAN 5 MINUTES.

Joe-Nathan

10-13-2009, 06:58 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN REMAIN HIGH TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA WHILE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD IN
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS OUR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST USHERING IN DRIER AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

.NOW...
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BEAUREGARD...ALLEN
PARISHES AND INTO VERNON AND RAPIDES PARISHES THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND RAIN MIXED COVERS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS....SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME.

H

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
ONSHORE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR DUE TO CLOUD COVER AS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST...BECOMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AS IT THEN EXTENDS EAST
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST LINE. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS/ZONES. WILL BE CARRYING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS REGION REMAINS UNDER ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO
THE COAST FORECAST TO AGAIN ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT A NEAR SATURATED
2.33 INCHES. NO SEVERE THREAT BUT WITH SUCH HIGH PW`S COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT LESS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID LEVELS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL THEN NORTHWEST.
MAJOR FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BRINGING THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS SEASON AND BEGINNING AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STRONGEST COLD FRONT THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

10-14-2009, 07:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIFR VIS/CIGS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO SLACK
WINDS NEAR A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH AT LCH. MVFR OTHER LOCATIONS.
COULD BE SOME CB DEVELOPMENT WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED
AROUND 18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRENT A TEMPO OR A VCNTY
AT THIS TIME. A REPEAT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR CIG/VIS THURSDAY
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN CONTINUED FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009/

..FALL LOOKS TO FINALLY SHOW IT`S SELF ON FRIDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST ATTM. THIS
HAS ALLOWED THE SE TX AND SRN LA TO REMAIN IN THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER ABV 2.4 INCHES AND CAPES AROUND 1700
J/KG...IN SHORT THIS IS AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND 60S TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. FOR THOSE THAT ENJOY THE SUFFERING OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE
NORTH "THE DAKOTA`S"... ARE IN THE 20S AS COLD CANADIAN AIR BUILDS
ACRS THE UPPER PLAIN STATES. MIA IS A BALMY 82 DEGREES.

BACK TO THIS REGION...RADAR IS INDICATING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WITH SHOWERS TRAILING BEHIND THIS CLUSTER.

TODAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE 30
YEAR CLIMATE RANGE "THE NORMAL HIGH IS 82 DEGREES AND THE NORMAL
LOW IS 59 DEGREES". WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER-OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ONLY TO GET A KICK
START TMRW AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BUT THE GOOD NEWS
IS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BUT TEMPS TMRW AFTN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
PRECIP WILL END BEHIND THE FRONT.

FRIDAY AFTN TMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AND STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AFTN AND UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND 40S FOR THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX AND CNTRL LA. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP QUITE NICELY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

Joe-Nathan

10-15-2009, 07:53 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY...FINALLY!

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY
IN SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO A 1/2 MILE AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN BPT AND LCH. WOW...AND THIS IS MID OCTOBER.
THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE
UPPER PLAIN STATES MAY SEE THE MID 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

THE FRONT THAT WAS DRAPED OVER OVER THE REGION HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY KICK THIS
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THRU
AEX AROUND SUNSET AND THRU BPT...LCH AND LFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COMMUTE
INTO WORK WITH SKIES CLEARING AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH MORNING LOWS SATURDAY IN
THE MID 50S TOWARDS THE COAST AND NEAR 50 INLAND. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE GOING TO BE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PRESENT TEMPERATURE OF
80 DEGREES. WINDS WILL PICKUP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. SO FINALLY...FALL IS HERE.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE.

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-15-2009, 01:39 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 151824
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
124 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW NEAR KSHV WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACROSS NERN TX BACK TOWARD THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS)
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SOLID STRATOCU DECK ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WITH CEILINGS CURRENTLY RUNNING ROUGHLY 1000-1500 FEET IN
MOST LOCATIONS. NRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT)
REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). MEANWHILE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) AND VIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VIS) IMAGERY SHOWS
SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT)/BKN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BKN) CU (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CU) OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATTM). REGIONAL 88DS
STARTING TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BASIN).

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE APPEARS TO BE
CEILINGS AND WINDS AROUND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS
AROUND 1500 FEET SHOULD MOVE INTO KAEX BY 22Z/23Z...CONTINUING SWD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SWD)
ACROSS THE SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) SITES BY 00Z/01Z. FROPA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FROPA) AND ITS ASSOCIATED NRLY
WINDS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ROUGHLY 02Z TO 05Z. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KAEX
TONIGHT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND A LITTLE BETTER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) ARE
PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED). INCLUDED VCSH AT KLFT/KARA FOR SIMILAR TIME FRAME.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING FOR
BRISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BRISK) NRLY WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH SPEEDS 13-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

UPDATE...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) COMPLEX MOVING SE ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) NRN LA INTO WRN MS THIS
MORNING WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEVERE%20THUNDERSTORM) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SPC) CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO LAKE CHARLES TO SAINT MARTINVILLE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NEAR TEXARKANA SW TOWARD
CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) TX...AND WILL MOVE SE ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) AND
EVENING.

AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE INTO MS THIS
AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN)...BYPASSING OUR AREA...AS THE DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE WNW
FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT. SOME SCT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCT) CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR NE ZONES
AS IT PASSES BY...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) OVER THE AREA WITH CAPES NEAR 5000 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) AND LI (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LI) AROUND
-5 AND COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WILL SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN) BUT BETTER DYNAMICS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DYNAMICS) REMAIN TO
THE NORTH.

ALL IN ALL...CURRENT FCST (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FCST) APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS)...BUT SEE NO NEED TO
UPDATE ZONES AT THIS TIME. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

.BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY...FINALLY!

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VISIBILITY)
IN SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO A 1/2 MILE AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN BPT AND LCH. WOW...AND THIS IS MID OCTOBER.
THE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) WILL BURN OFF BY THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PARTLY%20CLOUDY) AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE
UPPER PLAIN STATES MAY SEE THE MID 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT WAS DRAPED OVER OVER THE REGION HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) WILL FINALLY KICK THIS
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THRU
AEX AROUND SUNSET AND THRU BPT...LCH AND LFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LFT) BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).

FOR FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COMMUTE
INTO WORK WITH SKIES CLEARING AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH MORNING LOWS SATURDAY IN
THE MID 50S TOWARDS THE COAST AND NEAR 50 INLAND. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE GOING TO BE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PRESENT TEMPERATURE OF
80 DEGREES. WINDS WILL PICKUP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. SO FINALLY...FALL IS HERE.

A SECONDARY SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 92 60 74 55 74 / 40 40 10 10 10
KBPT 92 61 75 57 74 / 40 40 10 10 10
KAEX 88 55 72 50 67 / 40 40 10 10 10
KLFT 91 60 73 53 72 / 40 40 10 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-16-2009, 07:29 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INTO THE GULF THIS AM WITH SHOWERS NOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING SOUTHEAST. WRAP AROUND LOW LVL CLOUDS TO
HOLD THRU THE AM HOURS. THEREFORE IFR/MVFR WX DUE TO CLOUDS.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF AND THROUGH
PARISHES IN THE THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES BUT BELIEVE THAT
LAND AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNRISE. THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
WAS JUST BEHIND THE CONVECTION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE GUSTY THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
DO NOT FEEL LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY SO EXPECT GREAT FALL WEATHER TO BE UPON US THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW E/SE
FLOW TO EVOLVE BY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACHING FRONT. WILL TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...CURRENT CONFIGURATION FOR SCA LOOKS GOOD AS EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 78 55 75 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
KBPT 78 54 75 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 73 49 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 73 51 68 42 65 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-16-2009, 12:58 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KLIX 161750 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

.UPDATE...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BOUNDARY%20LAYER) THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT AT
KMSY...KGPT...AND KBTR IN THE LAST HOUR. AT KMCB...CEILINGS WILL
CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...THE MAJOR IMPACT
THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KNOT) RANGE AT KGPT AND KMSY
THROUGH TOMORROW. AT KBTR AND KMCB WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BUT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/

UPDATE...
..SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) HAS PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS NOW SITUATED VERY NEAR OR JUST OFF OF THE
COAST. THE SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING) SHOWS A NICE FRONTAL INVERSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INVERSION) NEAR 4000 FEET
AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OF THE AIR TAKES PLACE. PW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PW) VALUES ARE DOWN TO 1.28 INCHES AND THE
LI (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LI) SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) HAS BECOME VERY STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE). AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK UP AS WE ARE IN STORE FOR
A WONDERFUL WEEKEND WEATHER WISE.

98/SO

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/

UPDATE...
AVIATION...
TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS AND MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) VISIBILITIES
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THAT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TO THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO GREATER
THAN 6SM BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING...WITH VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 22 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) BEFORE RELAXING A BIT
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS PUSHING THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE MID/UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) QUICKLY AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). THE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND AN ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THUNDERSTORM) MAY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR MOST
LAND AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SURGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SURGE) IN FROM THE
NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST. THE DRIER AIR
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECKS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION)
WILL OFFSET THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HUMIDITY).

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. IT
WILL BE A BREEZY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND
COAST. HAVE SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF SOME OF THE MAV (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MAV) GUIDANCE
TO BLEND BETTER WITH THE COOLER MET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MET) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE) ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER
30S EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOWS IN A COUPLE LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND FROM THE 60S SUNDAY BACK TO THE LOWER 70S ON
MONDAY.

THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) BRINGS A MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
HAS A FASTER MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM WELL THE NORTH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED THE EARLIER FORECAST
INDICATING SOME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

22/TD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TD)

AVIATION...
A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) HAS SLOWLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) AIRPORTS INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTAL SECTIONS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) WILL PUSH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) POSSIBLE. TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...THOUGH VSBYS WILL IMPROVE
TO GREATER THAN 6SM THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING WITH
VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN WINDS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL
KEEP MARINE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) TODAY THEN 20 TO 25 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OUTER WATER WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS TO
30 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) ON OCCASION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 40 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS).
SEA LEVELS WILL RESPOND TO WINDS AND RANGE UP TO 8 FT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FT). A GALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GALE)
WARNING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING) MAY ACTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME ZONES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE SHOULD THE GUSTS ABOVE 35 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) MATERIALIZE.
BEYOND THAT TIME... CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED BY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) OVER THE LAKES AND BY MONDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
MCB 69 46 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
BTR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BTR) 73 48 64 42 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 73 56 66 48 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 75 48 66 43 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER ST. BERNARD...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...AND COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

10-18-2009, 04:35 PM

Joe-Nathan

10-19-2009, 07:18 AM

Moisture from Rick should arrive on Thursday w/ tropical shower ahead of next front.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TODAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS COOL DOME WILL DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
BREAKDOWN LATER TODAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT-OFF LOW ON WEDNESDAY
..BEFORE ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
THURSDAY. A SUBSEQUENT TOP-DOWN INTENSIFICATION OF LOW NEAR KANSAS
CITY...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION...WILL
DIRECT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...ANTICYCLONE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...AS A RELATIVELY
UNFILTERED OCTOBER SUN WARMS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
70S. WEAK MORNING EASTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED GULF STRATUS WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE NEAR-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST AIR FOUND ACROSS ALEXANDRIA.

FOR TUESDAY...THE WARM-UP CONTINUES AS GULF BREEZES INCREASE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL...UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE
AREA...DUE TO ONGOING GULF-AIR ADVECTION. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DUE IN PART TO THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

BY WEDNESDAY...ADVECTING PACIFIC CLOUDS...FROM THE LANDFALLED
HURRICANE RICK...WILL AUGMENT THE INCOMING GULF MOISTURE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.

MARINE...

THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 4 SECONDS...THE
COMBINATION OF EASTERLY SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURES FALLING ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE.
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED
LUNAR TIDES.

OUTLOOK...

PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL ADVANCE OVER MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE
PRE-FRONTAL AIR ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT POST-FRONTAL RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

ROLLTIDE

10-19-2009, 03:01 PM

....

Joe-Nathan

10-20-2009, 06:42 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A RAIN EVENT IS SHAPING UP...STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES.

MEAN AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT AN INCH...WITH LOCAL SPOT AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.

ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...REVERSING TO
BELOW THE PREDICTED BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SFC OBS INDICATE OVC CIGS
AT KBPT AND SCT CLOUDS AT KLCH WITH BASES ABV 4000 FT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH PRIMARY
ISSUE BEING WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12 KTS
BY MIDDAY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER WRN
TERMINALS AFTER 02Z...WITH SCT CLOUDS OVER ERN TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH LOUISIANA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS COOL DOME WILL DRIFT EAST...REACHING THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE GRAND CANYON THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADVANCING EASTWARD...REACHING
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

A SUBSEQUENT TOP-DOWN INTENSIFICATION OF CUT-OFF WILL OCCUR NEAR KANSAS
CITY...THE DEEPENING LOW`S COUNTER-CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL DIRECT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...THE WARM-UP CONTINUES AS GULF BREEZES INCREASE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
..EXTENDING ALONG A LINE THROUGH BEAUMONT TO PATTERSON. GULF
ADVECTION STRATUS (IE, HEAT AND MOISTURE) WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

FURTHER-UP...ADVECTING PACIFIC CLOUDS...FROM HURRICANE RICK...WILL
OVERLY THE GULF ADVECTION STRATUS. THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ONGOING
GULF-AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND VICINITY
WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ONGOING GULF-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POOL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...BEFORE
SPREADING EASTWARD. BOTH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...STARTING FIRST ACROSS THE HIGH
ISLAND-CAMERON SEGMENT LATER TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

A "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY" MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY..WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 6 FEET ALONG WITH A DOMINANT WAVE
PERIOD AROUND 6 SECONDS.

ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE
PREDICTED LUNAR TIDES ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

SHAPING UP TO BE A RAIN EVENT. PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
OVER MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIR. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

10-21-2009, 07:23 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AREAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND TWO
INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE TO FIVE
INCHES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER AN AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DURING THE DAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT
THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE BETTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AT
KBPT/KLCH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SHOWERS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACRS THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WRN TX. LOW
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE SW LA AND SE TX COASTS. AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AS OF 4 AM...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
BEGINNING TO ADVECT ACRS NRN MEXICO ON SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACRS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER NM WITH STRONG
SWRLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY...TRANSITIONING
TO AN OPEN TROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
AT THE SFC..LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX WILL EJECT OVER OK
THROUGH THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACRS TX. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL POOL WITH PWS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES
LATE TODAY. THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING
DURING THE AFTN. UNDER SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACRS TX...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE WRN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTN
HIGHS TODAY NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WRN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTN...CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...EXITING THE SERN ZONES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. DESPITE STRENGTHENING WIND
PROFILES AND 0-1 KM SREH VALUES APPROACHING 250 M2/S2 IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL AIRMASS...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. MORE NOTABLY...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THE REMNANTS OF TS RICK BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS WITH MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
FRIDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF COOL SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH MILD
AFTNS AND COOL MORNINGS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON COASTAL
LAKES AND BAYS WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 80 71 80 60 73 / 40 80 100 50 10
KBPT 80 73 80 59 72 / 60 90 100 40 10
KAEX 78 68 76 56 68 / 40 80 100 50 10
KLFT 81 70 80 63 73 / 30 70 100 70 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

10-21-2009, 02:56 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 211639
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.AVIATION...
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NE AND INCREASING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE REGION IN PART OF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) STREAMING OFF OF EPAC TS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TS)
RICK NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) STORM SYSTEM OVER NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) AND NW TX WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND THU. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...ISO SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA) IS STREAMING ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE
TX...GOING WITH VCSH FOR KBPT...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) ABOVE VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR)
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z ACROSS
TERMINALS OF SE TX/S LA...AND ~03-04Z FOR KAEX SITE...ALONG WITH
MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) CEILINGS. AFTER 06Z...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IMPULSE) IN THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) YIELD A ROUND OF +TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THRU 12Z...THUS PLACED A PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z THU...STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE ON THE AMOUNT AND
STRENGTH OF SHRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHRA)/TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA)...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 2ND
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) ALONG THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AFTER 18Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

UPDATE...
AT THIS TIME...SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF AS AN AREA OF RAIN
OVER COASTAL TEXAS SWEEPS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TOMORROW AND WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY UPDATES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) ISSUANCE...
MAINLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT.

DURING THE DAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT
THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) WILL BE BETTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AT
KBPT/KLCH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE).

CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SHOWERS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL%20DISTURBANCE).

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)
ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WRN TX. LOW
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE SW LA AND SE TX COASTS. AS GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURNS
TO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AS OF 4 AM...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FROM TROPICAL STORM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROPICAL%20STORM) RICK WAS
BEGINNING TO ADVECT ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) NRN MEXICO ON SWRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HIGH%20CLOUDS) SPREADING ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATER%20VAPOR%20IMAGERY) AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) WITH STRONG
SWRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE SRN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SRN) PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE CNTRL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CNTRL) PLAINS TODAY...TRANSITIONING
TO AN OPEN TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
AT THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC)..LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX WILL EJECT OVER OK
THROUGH THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) TX. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...AMPLE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL POOL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POOL) WITH PWS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES
LATE TODAY. THE ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) OF WARM MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING
DURING THE AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN). UNDER SWRLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) TX...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE WRN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN)
HIGHS TODAY NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WRN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AFTN)...CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...EXITING THE SERN ZONES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. DESPITE STRENGTHENING WIND
PROFILES AND 0-1 KM SREH VALUES APPROACHING 250 M2/S2 (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=M2/S2) IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL AIRMASS...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AND LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). HOWEVER...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ISOLATED) TORNADO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO) OR TWO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. MORE NOTABLY...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THE REMNANTS OF TS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TS) RICK BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH). AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS WITH MINOR FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MINOR%20FLOODING) IN URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PASSES THROUGH...THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
FRIDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF COOL SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH MILD
AFTNS AND COOL MORNINGS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON COASTAL
LAKES AND BAYS WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL CROSS THE
GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 80 71 80 60 73 / 40 80 100 50 10
KBPT 80 73 80 59 72 / 60 90 100 40 10
KAEX 78 68 76 56 68 / 40 80 100 50 10
KLFT 81 70 80 63 73 / 30 70 100 70 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-22-2009, 08:12 AM

TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO THE NWS/MEDIA FOR UPDATES!!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR TODAY...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING OFF OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RICK
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON. AREA AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO
5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
DRIER COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

$$

24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN
ABUNDANT GULF AND EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP ENHANCE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES DO NOT END UNTIL
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

WILL GO WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH TS IN THE VICINITY FOR KBPT
TO START THE TAF FORECAST...WITH THESE CONDITIONS ARRIVING AT KLCH
BY 22/14Z...KAEX BY 22/15Z AND KLFT/KARA BY 22/16Z. MVFR CEILINGS
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS...ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR TORNADO
WATCH 771 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER OUR WRN ZONES THIS MORNING. VWP
PROFILES REMAIN INDICATIVE OF DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009/

.HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHAPING UP FOR TODAY...

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN KS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A BROAD
SWATH OF DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERED THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WAS SPREADING TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SRN KS NR ICT...WITH
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD OKC AND DFW EXTENDING SW
ALONG ROUGHLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN ACRS MUCH OF TX INTO OK AND ARK...WITH
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LA.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY...GRADUALLY OPENING INTO A TROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX COAST THIS AM...WHICH WILL TREK NE TOWARD
THE LAKES AREA OF TX BY EARLY AFTN THEN NE LA BY EARLY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 70S. SPC NOW INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THIS SFC LOW PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH SREH HELICITIES BETWEEN
200 AND 300 M2/S2 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ROTATING STORMS AND A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DESPITE
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL ADDRESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER IN THE HWO.

OVERALL...THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH PWS BETWEEN 2.0-2.2
INCHES...ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF RICK BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
MEAN SWRLY FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT...HELPING TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA TOTALS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO
5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING AN FFA AS AREA HAS HAD NEARLY A WEEK TO DRY OUT SINCE
THE LAST EVENT AND ANY FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. FURTHERMORE...MOST AREA RIVERS ARE NEAR BASE FLOW AND
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF HANDLING THE RUNOFF.

EXPECT ALL OF THIS MESS TO COME TO AN END ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AND IT SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN DRIER COOLER AIR WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND ON
TAP. A SLT CHC FOR RAIN RETURNS ON MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES
THE AREA...WITH A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFFSHORE.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF WATERS ON TONIGHT...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 60 70 51 74 / 100 40 10 0 0
KBPT 78 58 69 49 73 / 100 20 10 0 0
KAEX 77 56 66 44 72 / 100 50 10 0 0
KLFT 80 62 70 51 72 / 100 60 10 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON,
LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-22-2009, 12:48 PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

LAZ031-221745-
ALLEN LA-
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ALLEN PARISH UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

AT 1221 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 12 MILES SOUTH OF OAKDALE...OR ABOUT 4
MILES NORTHEAST OF OBERLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OAKDALE BY 1240 PM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

Joe-Nathan

10-23-2009, 07:13 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
541 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. EXPECTING BKN VFR CEILINGS
AT KAEX WITH SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AROUND 15Z WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KNOTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
THEREFORE...MUCH NICER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IN EXPECTED TO OVER TAKE THE REGION ON MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RETURN FLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS. ONCE AGAIN
NICE FALL WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH MID-WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT.

LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AT THIS POINT WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MSAS ANALYSIS ALONG WITH MARINE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL
LAKES AND BAYS...ALONG WITH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 69 47 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
KBPT 71 47 76 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 10
KAEX 67 44 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
KLFT 68 46 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-24-2009, 06:40 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KAEX AND KARA. EXPECT VISBYS TO VARY BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH 14Z WITH SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 100 FT AS
THE FOG BEGINS TO MIX OUT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING MAINLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE RESULT TONIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
THE NICE FALL WEATHER GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT WARM-
UP AND RISE IN HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS
NOTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER BEYOND TUESDAY AS STILL A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN LONG RANGE MODELS. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE...FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SYSTEM LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RUA

MARINE...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS EARLY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS.

THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR ADVECTION NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND AT THIS POINT
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RUA

ROLLTIDE

10-24-2009, 02:05 PM

.....

ROLLTIDE

10-25-2009, 03:20 PM

...

Joe-Nathan

10-26-2009, 07:22 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH A LOWER THREAT IN
LOUISIANA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 171
CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END ON TUESDAY...BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FLOODING WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH MODELS SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO ACADIANA TONIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
FRONT MOVEMENT AND COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE
BOUNDARY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
ZONES...AND SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFORMATION.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW...AS SURFACE
LOW TRACK WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF
ACADIANA WILL SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY
CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING UP TO 500 M2/S2 SRH. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF.

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FORCES COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST. AFTER A BRIEF
DRYING OUT ON TUESDAY A MUCH LARGER AND SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SO MUCH FOCUS ON TODAYS
SYSTEM AND CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT...HAVE NOT
CHANGED TO MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...

HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SCEC WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. TIDES ALSO RUNNING
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH...AND SOME MINOR HIGH WATER ISSUES ALONG THE COAST ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE. AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES BASED ON MODEL QPF
AND HPC GUIDANCE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE EYEBROW RAISING QPF
NUMBERS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EVEN 4.0 KM
WRF AGREES AND SHOWS SIMILAR QPF NUMBERS IN THE SAME AREA. THUS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST QPF NUMBERS
NOT AS HIGH OVER EASTERN ZONES BUT WILL INCLUDE IN WATCH AS THE
ENTIRE CWA RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING FROM
THE LAST EVENT...AND WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAINFALL TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 58 71 54 79 / 70 100 10 10 10
KBPT 76 57 71 55 79 / 100 100 10 10 10
KAEX 74 54 68 49 77 / 70 100 10 10 10
KLFT 77 58 72 55 80 / 40 100 20 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFER SON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

ROLLTIDE

10-26-2009, 05:13 PM

rea Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KLCH 262010
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
310 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A SHALLOW FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) WILL FORM NEAR CAMERON THIS EVENING
...COMPLETE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS
THE TEXAS OFFSHORE WATERS...AND A LEADING WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS THE I-10 PRAIRIES OF LOUISIANA.

THE WAVE CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) WILL JUMP NORTHEAST...IN TANDEM WITH CUT-OFF LOW
MENTIONED BELOW...REACHING JACKSON NEAR NOON ON TUESDAY.

FURTHER-UP...SALIENT SHORTWAVES (OR JETSTREAKS) ARE ROTATING AROUND
A CUT-OFF LOW VICINITY THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SWINGING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL OPEN-UP INTO A SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) WESTERLY TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ON
TUESDAY...WHILE PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHRN LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...AN ADIABATIC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADIABATIC) ANALYSIS OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) SOLUTION REVEALS STRONG
SLANTWISE ASCENT OF INCOMING GULF AIR. THIS SLANTWISE ASCENT IS
PHASING IN WITH THE JETSTREAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE)...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) CONTINUES RUNNING
NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) IS PLENTIFUL.

THE LIMITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)...WHICH IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

THE COMBINED-LIFTING OF MOIST STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) AIR HAS RESULTED IN A
MODERATE RAIN SHIELD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAIN%20SHIELD)...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS.

BELIEVE THAT AREAL FLOODING...RATHER THAN THE MORE CONVECTIVE
FLASH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH) FLOODING...IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE WAVE
CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) JUMPS NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...

CONFUSED SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS NORTHERLY WIND WAVES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20WAVES)
IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL OPPOSE SOUTHERLY SWELLS IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL AIR. THE SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL BE RATHER STEEP WITH A DOMINANT WAVE
PERIOD RUNNING AROUND 5 SECONDS. `

&&

.SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK)...

THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) COMPUTES LEE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LEE) SIDE CYCLOGENESIS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS) OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) TRAVELING NORTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXTENSIVE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CIRCULATION) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHLY-BAROCLINIC CYCLONE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CYCLONE) WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE IN LINES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THE ATMOSPHERE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ATMOSPHERE) IS UNSTABLE WITHIN THIS
TIME FRAME...SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 59 68 54 78 68 / 100 20 10 10 50
KBPT 57 66 50 78 70 / 100 20 10 10 50
KAEX 55 63 47 77 64 / 100 60 10 10 30
KLFT 60 69 54 78 68 / 100 40 10 10 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIE U...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...TY LER.

GM...NONE.
&&

TRARES

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-27-2009, 06:58 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
238 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM FLOOD BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
10/26/2009 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KFDM TV REPORTS STREET FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN BEAUMONT.

1146 AM FLOOD PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
10/26/2009 JEFFERSON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS MANY STREETS FLOODED IN AND AROUND PORT
ARTHUR.

0406 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW LAKE CHARLES 30.25N 93.27W
10/26/2009 M1.52 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC

COCORAHS OBSERVER RECEIVED 1.52 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES.

0431 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 S LAKE CHARLES 30.12N 93.22W
10/26/2009 M2.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

THE LAKE CHARLES ASOS REPORTED 2.00 INCHES IN 31 MINUTES.

0551 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW LAKE CHARLES 30.14N 93.23W
10/26/2009 M3.97 INCH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

RAINFALL SO FAR IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW LAKE CHARLES 30.17N 93.25W
10/26/2009 CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS AROUND 5 INCHES OF WATER OVER
GAUTHIER ROAD.

0652 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.16N 93.20W
10/26/2009 CALCASIEU LA BROADCAST MEDIA

KPLC-TV RELAYED REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ON SUNDALE DRIVE AND IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOOD WITH
WATER ABOUT TO ENTER HOMES.

0655 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
10/26/2009 CALCASIEU LA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG COMMON STREET BETWEEN MCNEESE
ROAD AND GAUTHIER ROAD WITH WATER COVERING ROADWAY.

0736 PM FLASH FLOOD LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
10/26/2009 CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS A FOOT OF WATER OVER ENTERPRISE BLVD
NEAR ST. LOUIS HIGH SCHOOL.

1202 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSE LAKE CHARLES 30.14N 93.16W
10/27/2009 CALCASIEU LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALCASIEU PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS WATER IN
RESIDENCES ON SOUTH MEADOWLARK DRIVE OFF CORBINA ROAD.
STREET HAS BEEN CLOSED.

1202 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 SSE LAKE CHARLES 30.13N 93.18W
10/27/2009 CALCASIEU LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALCASIEU PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS THAT TOM HEBERT
ROAD SOUTH OF TANK FARM ROAD IS CLOSED WITH MULTIPLE
VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE FLASH FLOOD EVENT OF YESTERDAY...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH UPPER TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL ZONES THIS
MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND WITH VERY
WET GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL ZONES...AND DENSE FOG IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS MAJOR CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE
A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE A 40-50 KNOT LLJ WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
QUICKLY INLAND FROM THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING DURING
THE NIGHT. A DRAMATIC RISE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS ALSO
FORECAST WITH LEVELS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY ONLY AT 0.50 INCHES BUT
RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES BY 6Z THURSDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND LLJ WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...WITH ECMWF BRINGING THE
FRONT QUICKLY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT GFS DELAYING
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CONCERNING STALL OF THE
FRONT IN THE CWA...WITH HIGH QPF NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND FORCES THE FRONT
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION. THUS ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD
EVENT APPEARS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE HIGH
LIKELY CATEGORY ALTHOUGH CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM AN ALMOST
CERTAINTY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WHICH SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A THREAT MUCH OF
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS NEXT SYSTEM...MODELS NOW ARE SUGGESTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
INTO NOVEMBER.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND A SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

ALL 5 CLIMATE SITES HAVE NOW SEEN BETWEEN 9 AND 13 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS MAKES OCTOBER 2009 ONE OF THE
TOP 10 WETTEST MONTHS IN HISTORY FOR ALL 5 LOCATIONS. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
BOOST THE ALREADY HIGH MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS EVEN FURTHER...BUT
ANOTHER 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS NEEDED TO BEAT THE RECORD
OCTOBER MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH ARE IN THE 15 TO 22 INCH
RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 69 52 78 69 80 / 20 0 10 40 70
KBPT 69 52 78 71 80 / 20 0 10 40 70
KAEX 65 47 77 64 78 / 20 0 10 40 70
KLFT 69 52 78 68 81 / 20 0 10 40 70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

ROLLTIDE

10-27-2009, 12:15 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=29&glossary=1) 30 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=30&glossary=1) 31 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=31&glossary=1) 32 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=32&glossary=1) 33 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=33&glossary=1) 34 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=34&glossary=1) 35 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=35&glossary=1) 36 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=36&glossary=1) 37 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=37&glossary=1) 38 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=38&glossary=1) 39 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=39&glossary=1) 40 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=40&glossary=1) 41 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=41&glossary=1) 42 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=42&glossary=1) 43 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=43&glossary=1) 44 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=44&glossary=1) 45 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=45&glossary=1) 46 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=46&glossary=1) 47 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KLCH 271516
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.UPDATE...

WRAP-AROUND POST-FRONTAL STRATUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STRATUS) WILL SLOWLY ERODE AWAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) CONTINUING TO WANE THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) LOW OVER
NE TX BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. INTRODUCED VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY)
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING AS A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE
RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUND WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) FORMATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) EVENT OF YESTERDAY...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
RADAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RADAR) IMAGERY. WITH UPPER TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20CHANCE) OF RAIN FOR ALL ZONES THIS
MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND WITH VERY
WET GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) APPEARS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TONIGHT
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) FOR ALL ZONES...AND DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS MAJOR CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE
A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE A 40-50 KNOT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KNOT) LLJ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LLJ) WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING
QUICKLY INLAND FROM THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) BE
REACHED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING DURING
THE NIGHT. A DRAMATIC RISE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) VALUES IS ALSO
FORECAST WITH LEVELS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY ONLY AT 0.50 INCHES BUT
RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES BY 6Z THURSDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) AND LLJ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LLJ) WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)...WITH ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) BRINGING THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) QUICKLY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) DELAYING
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CONCERNING STALL OF THE
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IN THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA)...WITH HIGH QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE UPPER
TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) FINALLY EJECTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND FORCES THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION. THUS ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AND FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD)
EVENT APPEARS LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD)
WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. HAVE RAISED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO THE HIGH
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) CATEGORY ALTHOUGH CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL) POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) SEEM AN ALMOST
CERTAINTY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) THREAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WHICH SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A THREAT MUCH OF
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS NEXT SYSTEM...MODELS NOW ARE SUGGESTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
INTO NOVEMBER.

MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)...AND A SCA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCA) WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY)
BE NEEDED. A STRONG COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

CLIMATE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMATE)...

ALL 5 CLIMATE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CLIMATE) SITES HAVE NOW SEEN BETWEEN 9 AND 13 INCHES OF
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS MAKES OCTOBER 2009 ONE OF THE
TOP 10 WETTEST MONTHS IN HISTORY FOR ALL 5 LOCATIONS. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
BOOST THE ALREADY HIGH MONTHLY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS EVEN FURTHER...BUT
ANOTHER 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS NEEDED TO BEAT THE RECORD
OCTOBER MONTHLY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS WHICH ARE IN THE 15 TO 22 INCH
RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 69 52 78 69 80 / 10 0 10 40 70
KBPT 69 52 78 71 80 / 10 0 10 40 70
KAEX 65 47 77 64 78 / 10 0 10 40 70
KLFT 69 52 78 68 81 / 10 0 10 40 70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-28-2009, 07:01 AM

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. CHECK W/ LOCAL MEDIA AND NWS FOR UPDATES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TURN ON YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIOS.

Mike's w/ NWS forecast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/owbrief/owbrief.php

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY...AND RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUNDS HAVE
ALL COMBINED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE TO
THE AREA TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT. AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO WILL THE CHANCE THAT SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RELATIVELY
LOW. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY
OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE
CHARLES LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS
FOR THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER A GOOD PART OF
INLAND EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY OVER THE GULF WATERS.

THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COASTAL TIDES RUNNING NEAR 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...RESULTING IN TIDE VALUES AROUND
3 FEET AT CALCASIEU PASS AND SABINE PASS. WHILE THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING...THIS ABOVE NORMAL TIDE WILL
IMPEDE DRAINAGE AND MAY EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR REMAIN
IN PLACE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUING. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE FRONT WILL MOVE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME SHIFTS
IT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS PROVES CORRECT...SOME
RAINFALL WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD BE OVER...AS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WOULD THE THREAT OF
FLOODING RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL. WALKING OUT THE BACKDOOR OF THE OFFICE AND LOOKING
TOWARDS THE WEST IT`S APPARENT THAT GROUND FOG IS A SURE BET AT
KLCH AS PLENTIFUL LEFTOVER WET GROUNDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S MONSOON
PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS JUST TO OUR EAST. ELSEWHERE WHERE MONDAY/TUESDAY RAIN WAS
LESS SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
MVFR VISIBILITIES ON AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BASIS THROUGH SUNRISE.
MOST OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS FINE WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SW
BRINGS IN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS FIRST. MAIN PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL BE BRISK WINDS AT THE SRN SITES AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. FINALLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND VCSH MENTIONS ARE BROUGHT INTO KBPT/LCH LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS SFC WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM NWRN GULF AND
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/

UPDATE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STRONG SYSTEMS, THE AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH FLAT HIGH
PRESSURE OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL UPDATE MAINLY
FOR LATEST WINDS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO
JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING.

THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE TRAVELING WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOUISIANA COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL
LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

FURTHER-UP...THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORES THROUGH CENTRAL OLD MEXICO TO
ACROSS NEW ORLEANS...WITH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING CONFINED
EQUATORWARD OF CORE. THE SUBTROPICAL JET SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION ON THURSDAY...SETTING UP THE PINEAPPLE
EXPRESS ACROSS LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK ADVECTIVE INCREASE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS CARRY CARIBBEAN
AIR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TOMORROW...INCOMING CARIBBEAN AIR WILL SLIDE-UP THE CONTINENTAL
AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. GULF CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY MIDAFTERNOON. BOTH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...FRONTAL RAINS WILL BEGIN AS THE WARM FRONT
TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PASSING SHORTWAVES
ALOFT...TRAVELING ALONG THE JET CORE AND CARRYING PACIFIC MOISTURE
.MAY SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF
WARM FRONT.

FOR THURSDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AS
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES LIFT DE-STABILIZING POST-WARM FRONTAL AIR.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SEVERE THREAT...

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT (NOT MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO THE LAKES REGION.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE IN LINES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR...AS THE DEEP-SHEAR WINDS RIGHT-ANGLE THE COLD
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE LIKELY THREAT...AS THE WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHT WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 16 KILOFEET...A LITTLE TOO HIGH
FOR A HAIL THREAT.

ALSO...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM. THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HEAVY RAIN
WILL PERSIST...DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE TRANSITIONING OF
THE LINEAR FRONTAL CONVECTION TO A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN.

ADEQUATE SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE RELEASED BY ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING PACIFIC JETSTREAKS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

STRATIFORM RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...FINALLY COMING TO A
END BY SATURDAY MORNING.

TRARES

ROLLTIDE

10-28-2009, 02:04 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 281415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
915 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

.UPDATE...

ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) STATMENT TO ADDRESS MINOR TIDAL BACK-UP ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TARGET).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MY APOLOGIES FOR THE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED DISCUSSION...THERE WAS
QUITE A BIT TO DIGEST THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW THAT HELPED BRING THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) ON MONDAY LIFTING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WAS DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST.

AREAS OF FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG)...SOME DENSE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...HAVE
DEVELOPED AMID THE LIGHT WINDS AND RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUND
UNDERNEATH THE CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKY. THIS FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN SEVERAL OBS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OBS) AOB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AOB) 1/4
SM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SM)...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY BENIGN...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AMID STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AS THE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) HIGH TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL%20SYSTEM) DIGS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
DOWNSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DOWNSTREAM) RESULT WILL BE THE AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF A 20-30KT
LLJ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LLJ)...WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) TO THE
AREA...AND INDUCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED)
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SET OFF THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY PROLONGED RAIN EVENT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER)...WHICH WAS A PALTRY .55 INCHES ON THE SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING)
YESTERDAY EVENING...IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES BY TONIGHT. RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...COURTESY OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. AS INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR)
WILL ALREADY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT)
MOVES INLAND. THE PROBABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROBABILITY) IS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
TORNADOES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AMID THE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION) REGIME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FAST MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER)...NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL)...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) AMID SUPPORTIVE BULK SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WILL MAINTAIN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE LLJ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LLJ) ON THURSDAY IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) NEAR 40 KTS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KTS) BY THE NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) AND
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...SO IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED INLAND...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) FOR THE GULF WATERS
AND INLAND LAKES/BAYS. IN ADDITION...THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FETCH) WILL RESULT IN A TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) RUNNING NEARLY A FOOT ABOVE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES)...WITH TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE) READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
3 FEET AT SABINE PASS AND CALCASIEU PASS. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH FOR COASTAL FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20FLOODING)...BUT IT WILL IMPEDE DRAINAGE.

FORCING FROM THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) ITSELF WILL COME INTO PLAY THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER EAST TEXAS...AND THEN
CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD...PERHAPS REACHING A LAKE CHARLES TO
ALEXANDRIA LINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THIS LINE HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING AND RUNNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE AREAL
AND/OR TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS THE
EVENT NEARS OR GETS UNDERWAY.

MODEL PROGS THIS MORNING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) HAVE
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLING...ACTUALLY SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THE
RESULT IS RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) NOW LINGERING WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW TO MID
RANGE CHANCE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) INTO SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY WAS CHANGED LITTLE.

AVIATION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) 1/4SM OR LESS IS CURRENTLY OVER C (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) AND SC
LA...AFFECTING KAEX/KLFT TERMINALS WITH LIFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIFR) VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) THRU 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE AT KARA/KLCH/KBPT...THE FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) IS MAINLY PATCHY AT
BEST AND THIN...RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY) FROM P6SM TO LESS
THAN 1SM AT TIMES. AFTER 15Z...MAINLY VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SE WINDS INCREASING OVER 15KTS AT KBPT/KLCH WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GRADIENT) BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER E TX/SW LA. AFTER
00Z...INTRODUCE VCSH TO ALL SITES AS MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) BEGINS TO INVADE FROM
THE GULF...WITH -RA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RA) PROB30 TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) AFTER 06Z AS THE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND LIFT
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT) ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW FOR THESE WINDS AND THE RESULTING BUILDING SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS). STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS).
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE) OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 78 73 81 69 73 / 0 70 100 90 90
KBPT 78 74 80 65 67 / 20 70 100 100 90
KAEX 78 68 79 66 67 / 0 70 100 100 90
KLFT 79 71 82 72 79 / 0 60 60 40 70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES...VERNON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-29-2009, 07:03 AM

GOING TO BE A BUSY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS!!!
TUNE INTO YOUR NOAA RADIOS AND LOCAL MEDIA!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM...MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL
IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
HEIGHTS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST TEXAS...AND
LOCATIONS IN LOUISIANA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES. THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MEAN AREAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...RAPID
SURFACE RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY...
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS...15 TO 25 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND GENERATED WAVES UP TO 6 FEET
OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 9 FEET OUT TO 60 NM.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...
BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND CAMERON...DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WATER LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FT
MLLW. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN
SABINE PASS AND PORT ARTHUR HAVING SOME WATER ACROSS IT...AND
WAVES COULD PUSH DEBRIS ACROSS HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN JOHNSON BAYOU
AND HOLLY BEACH IN CAMERON PARISH. FURTHER UP INTO CALCASIEU
PARISH...COMMUNITIES NEAR THE CALCASIEU RIVER SUCH AS DEATONVILLE
AND MOSS LAKE COULD SEE WATER ACROSS THE ROADS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MANY OF THE HAZARDS LISTED IN THE DAY ONE SECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. AN
EXPANSION OF THE WATCH EASTWARD DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL END THE COASTAL FLOOD WORRIES AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
BENIGN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED NORTH ACRS KLFT AND KARA
BETWEEN 04-06Z WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MADE FEW
CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AREAWIDE. CIGS AND VISBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-20 KT AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE ONSET OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER THE
NWRN GULF. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SERN
TX IN AREA OF SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. 00Z KLCH/KLIX/KCRP
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY TODAY
WITH DEEP SRLY FLOW LEADING TO PWAT VALUES NOW AROUND 1.8 INCHES.
THEREFORE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AREA TO THE GOOD CHANCE RANGE.

ELSEWHERE TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE OCCURRING SHORTLY WITH
TEMPS THEN HOLDING STEADY OR RISING...THIS TREND HAS BEEN INSERTED
INTO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT WITH VERY WARM READINGS STILL ON TAP.
OTHERWISE REMAINING GRIDS/FORECASTS/WATCHES LOOK GOOD AS IS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

OUTLOOK...

STRATIFORM RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...FINALLY COMING TO A
END BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. SUCCESSIVE INCOMING SWELLS WILL IMPEDE THE
DRAINAGE OF THE HIGH TIDES.

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES
INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 81 69 73 / 50 70 90 90
KBPT 74 80 65 67 / 50 70 90 90
KAEX 68 79 66 67 / 50 70 90 90
KLFT 71 82 72 79 / 50 60 70 70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ALLEN-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
RAPIDES-VERNON.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ACADIA-
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER
ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR JEFFERSON-
ORANGE.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

nightrider

10-29-2009, 08:13 AM

Look at these conditions for the end of October. I call this fuel on the fire.

77.4 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 26.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6.9 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Overcast 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Joe-Nathan

10-29-2009, 08:40 AM

But if we want any good convection we need these clouds to burn off to allow some sun in to heat things up.

nightrider

10-29-2009, 08:43 AM

But if we want any good convection we need these clouds to burn off to allow some sun in to heat things up.

I see the sun peeking out , it should make it to the mid 80's here today.

ROLLTIDE

10-29-2009, 02:22 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) | Text Only (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1) | Print (javascript:window.print()) | Product List (http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=NWS) | Glossary Off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291824 AAA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)... UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
124 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TORNADO (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TORNADO) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) NUMBER 782 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009/

DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) TO INCLUDE CALCASIEU PARISH. THE
ACTUAL TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE) LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
THE PREDICTED LUNAR TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES). MINOR FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MINOR%20FLOODING) REMAINS POSSIBLE
..ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING AND AFTER HIGH TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE).

TRARES

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A BUSY 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA...AS A POTENT BUT
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) STORM SYSTEM SLUGS ITS WAY EAST FROM
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A 40-50KT LLJ (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LLJ) HAS RESULTED IN RAPID GULF
MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) RETURN...WITH SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) DEWPOINT READINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHICH IS A 20 DEGREE INCREASE VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. PRECIPITABLE WATER (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PRECIPITABLE%20WATER) HAS CLIMBED FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
YESTERDAY MORNING...TO VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER GOES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GOES)
DERIVED IMAGERY.

ALOFT...THE SUBTROPICAL JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA...AND CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) RIDGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE)
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS). MEANWHILE...THE POLAR JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) ROUNDING
THE STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST...STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THE FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ADVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVECTION)...AND
INCREASING BUT MODEST INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY)...SCATTERED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SCATTERED) SHOWERS ONGOING OVER
THE TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE/EXPAND IN COVERAGE...AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) CONTENT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) PRODUCERS...WITH
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FORCING AND STORM MOTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STORM%20MOTION) FAVORING CELLS
THAT DEVELOP AND TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...OR TRAIN.

THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) WILL CONTINUE...AND INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM ENTERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. IT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...REACHING NEAR A LINE FROM NEAR FORT POLK
TO BEAUMONT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) IS FORECAST TO PICK UP A
LITTLE SPEED ON FRIDAY...AS IT HEADS THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND CLEARS THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET) WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH RAIN FINALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

TOTAL AREA RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ONE
INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE
EAST TEXAS LAKES REGION.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL)...A SLIGHT RISK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SLIGHT%20RISK) OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT). INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) WILL REMAIN MODEST
AT BEST...BUT ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES.

FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

AVIATION...
MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR)/IFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=IFR) CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS). VCSH CIGS
PREVAIL ACRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACRS) THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST PRECIP IS LOCATED ACROSS INLAND
SE TX...AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) WINDS ALREADY
FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL FURTHER INCREASE BY
MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 17-22
KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT) AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=KT). VCTS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY GIVEN TERMINAL RECEIVING A TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) INCREASING BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PREDOMINATE TSRA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TSRA) EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z AS THE MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) AND LIFT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT).

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA LIES BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA HIGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BERMUDA%20HIGH) OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) LOW PRESSURE OVER
WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) WILL ENTER THE WESTERN WATERS BY MID-
MORNING ON FRIDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
EXIT THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAKE)...MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PAST THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 82 70 71 50 69 / 70 100 100 70 10
KBPT 82 63 65 48 70 / 100 100 100 50 10
KAEX 80 67 68 46 67 / 100 100 100 100 10
KLFT 82 73 78 51 67 / 50 70 70 100 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFER SON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...JEFFERS ON
DAVIS...RAPIDES...VERNON.

COASTAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE...TYLER.

FLASH FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLASH%20FLOOD) WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.

COASTAL FLOOD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOOD) ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY) UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS) FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS)
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON,
LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM)...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM) TO 60 NM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM).

&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

10-30-2009, 06:55 AM

I promise it is knocking on the door, just really slow....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT TO
HOLD PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AT BAY...SO THE RAINFALL HELD OFF
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING. BASED ON
RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS...THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEAR A GRAND CHENIER
TO MARKSVILLE LINE. IT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOVING ALONG AT AROUND
10KT OR SO...BUT LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED TO AROUND 5KT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. A LARGE SWATH OF RAINFALL...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDS WEST FROM THE
BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY TO A HOUSTON TO TRINITY TEXAS LINE.

ALL OF THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS ARE MULTIPLE VORT LOBES EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE H85 FRONT LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
BASED ON PROFILER DATA...IS STILL SOMEWHERE OVER EAST TEXAS...AND
IS PROBABLY DENOTED BY THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. AHEAD OF
THE H85 FRONT...A VIGOROUS 40-50KT LLJ IS PRESENT FROM THE NW GULF
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI. FURTHER UP...A 100KT+ POLAR
JET IS SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROF.

VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE COLD
LAYER WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE H85 FRONT...WHICH IS
NOT PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST UNTIL THIS EVENING...ONCE
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EAST
AS THE LAST LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE.

UNTIL THEN...AREAWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH TOTALS IN THE AREA OUTLINED BY THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AVERAGING 2 TO 3...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE THE H85
FRONT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MUCH COOLER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE NEARLY 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE HERE AT THE
OFFICE AND AT OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST ONCE THE FRONT MOVED
THROUGH.

DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR A GRAND CHENIER TO 60 NM SOUTH OF
CAMERON LINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TODAY...MOVING EAST OF THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 61 48 70 47 / 100 20 0 0
KBPT 62 47 72 48 / 100 20 0 0
KAEX 60 44 68 44 / 100 20 0 0
KLFT 78 50 68 47 / 100 40 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALLEN-BEAUREGARD-
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-RAPIDES-VERNON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HARDIN-JASPER-
JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALCASIEU
LAKE-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

jess

10-30-2009, 03:30 PM

The front is still dropping rain in Lake Charles, although it's moving away. This front is one of the slowest I've seen and will probably be a problem for days to come.

Joe-Nathan

11-02-2009, 07:11 AM

Should be normal temps (Cool and Dry) for the week. Should be able to lower some of the flooded rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
423 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE
U.S. RIDGING SW ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. THIS IS CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH LOWERS 50S ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR OF SE TX/S LA.

COOL...CLEAR AND PEACEFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS
WORKWEEK. THE UPPER AIR PATTER WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WNW-NW
THROUGH FRI...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO KEEP THE REGION PRECIP
FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER RE-INFORCING SFC HIGH TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE...AND YET ANOTHER ONE
LATE WED AND THU...KEEPING COOL FALL CONDITIONS THRU SAT.

BY SAT AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WITH GULF MOISTURE STARTING TO
SLOWLY CREEP BACK NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME...JUST EXPECT GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE PRECIP STAYING
WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF. BY LATE SUN INTO NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF RAPIDLY BRING BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...GENERATING
A SFC LOW TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF BY MON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THIS LOW WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL...BUT COULD GENERATE ANOTHER
HEALTY DOUSING OF PRECIPITATION IF THIS PANS OUT.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN MON AND TUE AS A SECONDARY HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THE SABINE RIVER...MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST AT DEWEYVILLE AND BON
WEIR...WITH MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE AT BURKEVILLE. BAYOU ANOCOCO
AT ROSEPINE CAN EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO CONTINUE. MINOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY
AND GLENMORA. EVEN THE RED RIVER IN ALEXANDRIA WHICH RARELY FLOODS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING.

Joe-Nathan

11-03-2009, 06:48 AM

ONLY HAZARDS ARE THE ON GOING FLOODING:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG VARIOUS POINTS OF THE
RED...NECHES...CALCASIEU AND SABINE RIVERS. REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG VARIOUS POINTS OF THE
RED...NECHES...CALCASIEU AND SABINE RIVERS. REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2009

.AVIATION...
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AT AEX BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE OUT
OF THE WAY AROUND 13Z. OTHERWISE...SE TX AND SRN LA WILL BE VFR
WITH HIGH CI STREAMING OVERHEAD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS
CLIPPING SOUTH LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF UPPER TROF
EXTENDING THROUGH OLD MEXICO. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LIGHT TO NIL WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS RESULTING IN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DOWN AT NEAR 1/2 INCH. THIS OCCURRING WITH A NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A COOL 1030 MB
HIGH OVER THE MID PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BROAD AND SHALLOW 500 MB TROF REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST CONUS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM BAJA HIGH. THIS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ALOFT
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK MODELS SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PRESSURE PATTERNS. THIS
TO MAINTAIN A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH WARM DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES SUNDAY PER BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BUT MODELS TAKING DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC ROUTES IN MOVING THE
RAINS INTO THE AREA. SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LATER
IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR
RAINS AND LOOK FOR A RETURN OF CONTINUITY DOWN THE ROAD FOR MORE
SPECIFICS.

MARINE...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-04-2009, 07:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
401 AM CST WED NOV 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
THROUGH PLAINS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. ALOFT...AREA
REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN SHALLOW TROFFING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN DEPICTING
JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PLAINS
FRONT FOLLOWED BY 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
BRINGING A REENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

SUNDAY AND THE NEW WEEK...DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY CUT-OFF LOW PER ECMWF AND GFS ADVANCING
INTO OLD MEXICO. FEATURE OPENS AND ADVANCES EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER-SPREADING
THE AREA. GFS EXPANDS SURFACE TROFFING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND INLAND MONDAY WITH A
SIMILAR SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY ECMWF.

FEEL SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS NOW OVERALL PINGING ON
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SCENARIO
CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED BY MODELS...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
REQUIRED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TWEAKED POPS BACK DOWN ACCORDINGLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE WITH A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WINDS AND RAINS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-05-2009, 07:51 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST THU NOV 5 2009

.AVIATION...
AEX IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS AM
WITH THIS PATTERN TO HOLD THRU SUNRISE BEFORE BURNING OFF...
IFR/MVFR. OTHERWISE...OTHER AVN SITES ARE REPORTING CLR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLDS ALONG THE COAST. VFR WX WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU NOV 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH
ADVANCING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. LEADING
EDGE BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. FEATURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
ACTING AS REINFORCEMENT FOR AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SURFACE
OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. JUST A BIT OF
CIRRUS ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CLIPPING SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHILE SOME LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREATER PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST ALONG
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH. AREA THUS TO REMAIN UNDER THESE
FAIR WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING NIL. MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS CONTINUING.
PATTERN CHANGING FOR THE NEW WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH AND DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. CUTOFF OLD MEXICO LOW EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AND ADVANCES INTO MID TEXAS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. STRENGTHENING
AND DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH COMBINATION OF
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING IN BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. SOUNDINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN NEAR 1/2 INCH. COMBINATION OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
REMNANTS OF OLD MEXICO LOW IN CONCERT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEST GULF
SURFACE TROF TO RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...THEN MAXING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS FEATURES MOVE
OVER THEN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH DECENT CONTINUITY IN MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPWARD TREND WITH POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO IF
MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT SOLUTIONS.

WHILE ALL THIS IS TRANSPIRING...WILL BE MAINTAINING WATCH ON
TROPICAL STORM IDA. NHC PROG A NORTH TO NORTHWEST ADVANCEMENT OF
SYSTEM WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGING IDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST GFS GOES AHEAD AND MOVES IDA INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF AND MENDERS SYSTEM OVER THIS AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK UNTIL ABSORBED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM IDA NOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AND ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO EVOLVE...INCREASING WINDS AND SWELLS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-06-2009, 07:03 AM

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

.THIS STATEMENT IS AN OUTLOOK FOR PLANNING PURPOSES FOR INTERESTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...COASTAL MARSHES...AND AREAS ALONG
RIVERS JUST INLAND OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

LAZ052>055-062200-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.S.0003.000000T0000Z-091109T0000Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
443 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PRODUCE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIND DIRECTION WILL BE KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF COASTAL FLOODING THAT
OCCURS...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT CAUSE AS MUCH INFLUENCE
AS EASTERLY WINDS. REGARDLESS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TIDE
LEVELS WILL BE ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS BETWEEN
2.5 AND 3.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

ALSO...LARGE RANGES BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH TIDES WILL BE
OCCURRING DUE TO AN ANNUAL TIDE CYCLE...AND COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TV...RADIO...NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO OR THE
INTERNET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICTING
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG WITH RIDGE AXIS IN THE VICINITY. OTHERWISE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH BAY OF CAMPECHE DISTURBANCE REMAINING JUST OFF
SHORE.

TODAY AND SATURDAY...SECONDARY AND REENFORCING SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING INTO THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS
THAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE WITH MILD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER CHANGES CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED.
DEAMPLIFYING 500 MB RIDGE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO ADVANCE
EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH TRAILING CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS
OLD MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE WITH EASTWARD TREK OF MEXICO
DISTURBANCE EVOLVING INTO AN LONGITUDINAL OPEN WAVE ADVANCING
FEATURE ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...AND OVER AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. UPPER WAVE TO
INDUCE WEST GULF SURFACE TROF NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ACCORDINGLY LOOKING FOR RAINS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AS DEEP LIFT DEVELOPS. RAINS TAPER OFF TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH LATEST GFS ABSORBING THIS WEATHER MAKER
WITHIN IDA...FORECAST BY THE NHC TO BE A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY AND ON...WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AND KEEPING
A CLOSE EYE ON IDA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG THIS WEEKEND
BETWEEN A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING
WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. THE
COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-09-2009, 07:14 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
610 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING HURRICANE IDA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST BASED ON GFS POPS AND NAM TEMPS WHICH
REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES INCLUDING THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
INTO IDA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
CAPPING AND NVA WILL HELP TO HOLD PRECIP TO SCATTERED EXCEPT
LIKELY CHANCES FOR LOWER ACADIANA CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION OF
IDA. COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE TODAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR TO THE COAST FOR STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.LONG TERM...PRECIP SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROPICAL
ENVELOPE AROUND IDA DEPARTS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW IN
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
STRATOCU WRAP DEPARTS WITH IDA.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING AS THE EFFECTS FROM IDA WILL
BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
MOVES WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR WATERS. SCA CANCELLED FOR INLAND
LAKES AND IS REPLACED BY THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 62 73 59 71 / 50 10 0 0 0
KBPT 71 63 76 58 72 / 50 10 0 0 0
KAEX 69 62 75 56 67 / 50 10 0 0 0
KLFT 68 64 73 59 70 / 60 20 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SWEENEY

Joe-Nathan

11-10-2009, 07:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

.AVIATION...

TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS WILL SWING
SOUTH THROUGH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009/

SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IDA 60 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE
CONTINUES A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT JUST UNDER 10 MPH. THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND UPPER
STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AWAY TO THE NORTH. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WITH CLEAR OVERHEAD
AND UPSTREAM.

SHORT TERM...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY GUSTY FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF IDA.

LONG TERM...OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND IS BOMBING OUT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. THE EURO LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
BLENDED EURO TEMPS AS A RESULT INTO THE EXTENDED PROG.

MARINE...THE SCA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REDUCE
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

JS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 57 75 53 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 78 58 77 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 78 56 76 51 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 76 58 75 51 69 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

11-11-2009, 07:20 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AT AEX WILL BRING DOWN VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF AREA TO REMAIN VFR WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SEE SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 MPH AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO REGION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A MICHIGAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SEGMENT OF THIS HIGH-PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD...REACHING LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...
BEFORE EXITING INTO MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...PASSING OVER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
WILL WARM-UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE DUE IN PART
TO A DRY (A RELATIVELY UNFILTERED NOVEMBER SUN)...AND SINKING
(ADIABATIC WARMING) AIR.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49
CORRIDOR...WHERE COLD-AIR ADVECTION IS STRONGEST.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION PERSIST UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO MORE
NORMAL VALUES...DUE TO THE PREVIOUS COOL-MORNING START.

&&

.OUTLOOK...

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE PASSING
OVER THE NEW MEXICO-COLORADO FRONT RANGE...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ATTENDING
THE RAPIDLY-DEEPENING OKLAHOMA LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY.

PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ENDING WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER.
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 53 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 78 54 75 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 73 48 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 74 51 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&
TRARES
$$

Joe-Nathan

11-12-2009, 06:43 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VISBYS REPORTED
AT SRN TAF SITES...WHILE AT KAEX IFR VISBYS WERE NOTED...VARYING
BETWEEN 1-2 SM. VISBY AT KAEX COULD LOWER TO LIFR OCCASIONALLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE TONIGHT. COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A CENTRAL TEXAS ANTICYCLONE RIDGES NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND
INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS DEEP (OR WARM-CORE) ANTICYCLONE WILL EXIT
EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER-UP...A MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY RIDGE...THE UPWARD EXTENSION OF
THE CENTRAL TEXAS ANTICYCLONE...IS MOVING EASTWARD IN TANDEM. THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD MARKS THE POSITIVELY
-TILTED AXIS OF THIS WESTERLY RIDGE.

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND/OR HAZE IS NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PINEY HILLS AND LAKES REGION.

THE COOL MORNING START SHOULD KEEP THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO THE BENCHMARK NORMAL VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SEASONAL MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED AS ADVECTING CIRRUS
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...

A PACIFIC WESTERLY TROUGH WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DECELERATING AND FURTHER DEEPENING
INTO A CUT OFF LOW VICINITY THE GRAND CANYON. ONGOING TOP-DOWN
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CUT-OFF WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE REFLECTION
OF THE LOW NEAR TULSA BY MONDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT OCCLUSION (AND
EXPANDING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION) WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING.

THIS FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...COMING TO A HALT OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
LIGHT RAIN IN THE COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR.

MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. THE DIRECTION OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
..WITH A PREDOMINANT WAVE PERIOD AROUND 4 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE MARINE LAYER
SLOWLY STABILIZES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL SEGMENT BY
OVERNIGHT MONDAY...THEN DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWING TO A HALT ACROSS
THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-13-2009, 06:13 AM

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ A NICE COOL DOWN!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG RESULTING IN MVFR/VFR FLUCTUATIONS IN VISBY AT
KAEX AND KLFT WHILE MVFR VISBYS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KBPT. AT KLCH AND KARA...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHERE TEMP AND DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES HAVE
BEEN LARGER...BUT STILL THINK SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH TEMPS DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT. FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z
AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FM THE WEST AND LIGHT
VARIABLE OR SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE VICINITY JACKSON WILL TRAVEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY RIDGE...THE UPWARD EXTENSION OF
THE JACKSON HIGH...IS FOLLOWING IN TANDEM. THIS TRAVELING RIDGE IS
CARRYING PACIFIC CIRRUS THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A SHALLOW BACKDOOR WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF MARSH
ISLAND THROUGH LAKE CHARLES THROUGH JASPER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
SEPARATES DRY AIR NORTH FROM MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING VICINITY AND SOUTH OF FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE JACKSON HIGH IN TANDEM...EXITING INTO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER-UP...PACIFIC CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THESE THIN ICE CLOUDS WILL WEAKLY FILTER
THE NOVEMBER SUN...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL.

FOR TONIGHT...GULF BREEZES RETURN (THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM)
..CARRYING HEAT AND MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST. THE
WARM-UP WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE.

ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE.

OUTLOOK...

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...COMING TO A TEMPORARY HALT NEAR A DETROIT-TO-DALLAS LINE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER-UP...A PACIFIC WESTERLY TROUGH WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT BASIN...BEFORE DECELERATING AND DEEPENING
OVER THE NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY.

THE HIGHLY DIFLUENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL INDUCE FRONTAL-WAVE
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR DALLAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE TRAVELING EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE SUBSEQUENT OCCLUSION (AND
EXPANDING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION) WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LAKES REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE GFS GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ORGANIZING IN LINES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR AIR. IN GENERAL ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND IN PHASE FRONTAL-
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON
SEGMENT LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-16-2009, 05:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CST MON NOV 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES COMING TO THE REGION AS LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY TEXARKANA TO SAN ANTONIO
MOVING STEADILY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM.

SOME PATCHY FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4SM HAS DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FOG
SHOULD STAY PATCHY IN NATURE AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AS
REGION BEGINS TO FEEL FRONTAL LIFT FROM COLD FRONT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ISSUING ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS (TYLER...HARDIN
COUNTIES) BY SUNRISE...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE
SOUTHEAST PASSING KAEX TO KLCH BY NOON...AND THEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.

DECENT GULF MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP A SOLID BAND
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO WEAK FOR SEVERE STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE THE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 MPH. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM BECOMING TOO HIGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
QUICK COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR ALSO LOOKS TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE COOL CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE FELT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.

OLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODIFIED
GULF AIR WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING OVERALL MOISTURE
VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE WITH PWAT REACHING JUST OVER ONE INCH.
THEREFORE...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE
MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
THIS AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF...GOOD MIXING
SHOULD OCCUR ALLOWING FOR RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING
SEAS. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 44 65 41 70 / 60 0 0 0 0
KBPT 73 43 65 41 70 / 60 0 0 0 0
KAEX 70 40 62 38 67 / 60 0 0 0 0
KLFT 74 44 63 40 68 / 50 10 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.

Joe-Nathan

11-17-2009, 06:50 AM

CHANCE OF FROST NORTH OF I-10 TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FOR THE SEASON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
603 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND
3300FT OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...MODEL TIME HEIGHT TRENDS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL
AIRPORTS. CLOUDS MAY BE BKN OR EVEN OVC AT KAEX...BUT CEILINGS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE VFR. WINDS TO VEER TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
NEAR THE OZARKS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES WITH
CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO CO-OPERATING WITH
THOSE WHO WISH TO BRAVE THE CHILL AND CHECK OUT THE PEAK OF THE
LEONID METEOR SHOWER WHICH IS OCCURRING FROM NOW TIL SUNRISE.

FAIR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CHILLY NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATER IN THE WEEK...AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
COASTAL TROUGH OR LOW BY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW...AS TO THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW AND WHERE...IF ANY...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC INDUCED
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS AND REPORTS FROM BUOYS SHOW WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THAT AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING.

RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
COASTAL TROUGH OR SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 63 40 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 10
KBPT 63 40 69 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
KAEX 59 38 65 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
KLFT 63 39 66 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

Joe-Nathan

11-18-2009, 06:56 AM

Warm up on Thursday with Rain Friday Night into Saturday morning.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD OFFSHORE THE
LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TIDE LEVELS TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ANY THREATS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OR POSSIBLE FLOODING APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS.

THREAT LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

DATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TORNADOES FLOODING
------------------------------------------------------------
THURSDAY - - -
FRIDAY LOW - LOW
SATURDAY - - -
SUNDAY - - -
MONDAY LOW LOW LOW
TUESDAY LOW LOW LOW

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR AT A COUPLE OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING FOR LOWERED
VSBY. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN EARLY
THURSDAY AT ONE OR TWO SITES...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 40S IN THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS READINGS SO FAR. TWO MORE PLEASANT
DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GULF LOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALL MODELS IN AMAZING
AGREEMENT ON A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP TRACK OF
LOW WELL OUT INTO THE GULF AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH...WHICH KEEPS WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE AND
INLAND AREAS IN A COOL STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...INTENSE WAA
ABOVE THE COOL STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE HIGH
LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL REMAIN WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE GULF CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER...STILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT TO
RANGE FROM ONE HALF INCH IN THE NORTH TO NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG
THE COAST PER LATEST HPC GUIDANCE.

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN
DRIER AIR INTO SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

05

MARINE...

MAJOR MARINE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACK EASTWARD NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS. FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE
DIRECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS TEXAS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WITH EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE AND VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG EAST WINDS...TIDES WILL LIKELY RUN
OVER ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AT HIGH TIDE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THE STORMS FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW ON SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 43 70 50 / 0 0 0 20
KBPT 66 46 70 53 / 0 0 0 20
KAEX 62 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 10
KLFT 64 42 70 48 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

11-18-2009, 08:00 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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(http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=47&glossary=1) 48 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1) 49 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=49&glossary=1) 50 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=50&glossary=1)

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181236
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TAF) PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MVFR) AT A COUPLE OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING FOR LOWERED
VSBY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VSBY). OTHERWISE...VFR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR) EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS) WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FOG) AGAIN EARLY
THURSDAY AT ONE OR TWO SITES...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 40S IN THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS READINGS SO FAR. TWO MORE PLEASANT
DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GULF LOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALL MODELS IN AMAZING
AGREEMENT ON A SHARP SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) SETTING UP
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=PROGGED) TO FORM
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) ON FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP TRACK OF
LOW WELL OUT INTO THE GULF AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH...WHICH KEEPS WARM SECTOR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARM%20SECTOR) OF SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE AND
INLAND AREAS IN A COOL STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) AIRMASS. HOWEVER...INTENSE WAA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WAA)
ABOVE THE COOL STABLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=STABLE) LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) TO THE HIGH
LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL REMAIN WITH STRONGER CONVECTION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONVECTION) OVER THE GULF CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER...STILL EXPECTING RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT TO
RANGE FROM ONE HALF INCH IN THE NORTH TO NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG
THE COAST PER LATEST HPC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC) GUIDANCE.

RAINFALL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RAINFALL) IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW) USHERING IN
DRIER AIR INTO SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH)
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) MOVING ACROSS THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA) IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) BETWEEN THE
GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) AND ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)...WILL KEEP POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) LOW AT THIS TIME UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

05

MARINE...

MAJOR MARINE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACK EASTWARD NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE
DIRECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPPER%20LEVEL) TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) MOVES TOWARDS TEXAS. WINDS AND
SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WITH EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS NEAR GALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GALE) FORCE AND VERY ROUGH SEAS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SEAS) POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG EAST WINDS...TIDES (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDES) WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) RUN
OVER ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NORMAL) AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20FLOODING) ISSUES AT HIGH TIDE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TIDE). NUMEROUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NUMEROUS) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THE STORMS FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COASTAL%20WATERS). OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW ON SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS)...
KLCH 65 43 70 50 / 0 0 0 20
KBPT 66 46 70 53 / 0 0 0 20
KAEX 62 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 10
KLFT 64 42 70 48 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

Joe-Nathan

11-19-2009, 07:17 AM

RAIN ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE
TIDES TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH
OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THREAT LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

SEVERE HEAVY COASTAL
DATE THUNDERSTORMS RAINFALL FLOODING
---------------------------------------------------
FRIDAY LOW - LOW
SATURDAY - - -
SUNDAY - - -
MONDAY - - -
TUESDAY - - -
WEDNESDAY - - -

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT FOG AT KAEX THIS MORNING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT KLFT. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3
HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING. VFR IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. ONCE THE MORNING FOG
DISPERSES...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S INLAND...BUT IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
GULF WHERE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY BECOME REESTABLISHED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACTS STILL ANTICIPATED TO
BE IN THE GULF WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RAPIDLY FORM OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TOWARDS FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM
OFFSHORE...WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN A COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...STRONG WAA ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL
PROMPT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CWA BEGINNING IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO ALL ZONES
ON FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS ENTIRE EVENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN DUE TO THE GENERALLY NON-
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR SATURDAY EVENING AND END PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKS SYSTEM...AND
THUS WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

05

MARINE...

MAJOR MARINE WEATHER EVENT STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN TEXAS
TONIGHT...THEN TRACKING EASTWARD CLOSE TO OUR OUTER COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY DEEP...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ALL COASTAL LAKES
AND GULF WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
MANY DAYS...ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY. THUS HAVE
HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
TOMORROW...A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. LATEST GFS EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDE LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 51 67 51 / 0 10 40 60
KBPT 70 54 67 52 / 0 20 60 60
KAEX 69 44 64 48 / 0 10 20 60
KLFT 70 47 69 50 / 0 10 20 60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$