Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09

[Joe-Nathan]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE REGION FROM THE
SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO OK AND NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST WSWLY FLOW OF 35-50KT EXISTS IN A BROAD BELT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO...SOUTH
TX...AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND WAS CROSSING THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT...PRECEEDED BY
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOVES EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY. THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT....FROM SERN KS
ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX PNHDL...WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG OR NEAR THIS
AXIS AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS DURING THE DAY.

...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
AND FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION TODAY DESPITE THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE PLAINS. INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI THIS MORNING AIDED BY A LEADING
SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON
THE NOSE OF 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME NWD
PROGRESS ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF PCPN AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S F/
AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. GIVEN SUPPORTIVE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION... EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG/AHEAD OF
RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BELT OF FASTER WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 50KT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH THIS RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

ATTM...PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PINPOINT THOSE AREAS WHERE THE GREATER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FROM IL INTO LOWER MI. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MORE SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND LOW MAY OUTRUN GREATER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND RESULT IN LIMITED STORM COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM IL
INTO SWRN LOWER MI WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE SITUATED AND
DIABATICALLY ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND PERHAPS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LARGER HAIL AS WELL.

...MO SWWD TO OK/NWRN TX...
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF THESE AREAS BUT
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND
RESIDUAL/DECAYING CIRRUS CANOPIES WILL OCCUR BENEATH PRONOUNCED EML
AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PROCESS SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS
OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NWRN TX ACROSS OK AND INTO MO.
MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR IS FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 2500 J/KG
BUT INHIBITION WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND
LIFT/MIXING ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES TO LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW INTO THE
EVENING.

WHILE GREATER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE NW TX AREA
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA BENEATH 35-40KT WLY 500MB
FLOW. AS IN PRIOR DAYS...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
WITH HEATING...MARGINALLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS PUSHED INTO
ERN/SERN PARTS OF WY/CO PLAINS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGION LIES
BENEATH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECT TERRAIN AND LARGE SCALE
INFLUENCES TO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOWER LEVEL HELICITY ENHANCED BY
ELY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

...DELMARVA/PA/NJ...
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...AND INTERSECTION OF
THIS TROUGH WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS PA/NJ COULD AID STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED/SUSTAINED BY
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY LATER
TODAY. MODELS DO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
25-30KT LATER TODAY AND THIS COULD FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS WITHIN STORM UPDRAFTS AND EXPECT
ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TSTM WIND EVENTS.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATE...
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/ATOP RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM NWRN OK TO
WRN KS AS NEXT IMPULSES EMANATING FROM SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER SRN CA MOVE EAST. NONETHELESS...ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR POTENT AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. THUS...AT LEAST
A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/08/2009

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[Joe-Nathan]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/ifps/sjt/GFE/1.jpg

DAILY PODCAST UPDATE:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/brief/daily.html

[Joe-Nathan]

Monday's Outlook:

Another round of scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening along the eastern slopes of the mountains from Douglas, Wyoming to Cheyenne to Denver and across portions of northeast Colorado. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe, producing quarter size hail or larger, or brief gusty winds near 60 mph. Thunderstorms over western and northern Wyoming will not be as strong. Most highs today will be in the 60s. High temperatures will be in the 60s at most locations on Monday.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/cys/wx/File.png

[Joe-Nathan]

Monday's Outlook:

For today and tonight:
Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and Front
Range this afternoon and spread east across the plains late this
afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may become severe with
golf ball size hail, damaging winds to 60 mph and isolated
tornadoes.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/bou/wx/File.png

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081934Z - 082030Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT MAY INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS LOWER MI/PERHAPS NORTHERN INDIANA. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
SOON...AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI.

A SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/QUICKLY GONE SEVERE IN VICINITY
OF LANSING MI AS OF 1930Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI PER MOST RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT THAT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE WEST-EAST WARM
FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI /PER GRAND RAPIDS AND DETROIT WSR-88D VWP
DATA/ SUGGEST A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

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[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN/EASTERN KY/SOUTHEAST OH INTO WV AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081924Z - 082100Z

SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND
SOUTHEAST OH INTO WV/SOUTHWEST PA AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

NNE-SSW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A
GRAVITY WAVE TYPE FEATURE EMANATING FOR UPSTREAM EARLY DAY
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS TSTMS
DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
/UP TO 1500-2000 J PER KG/ ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /MEAN FLOW LESS THAN 20 KT/ IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL TSTM ORGANIZATION...AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

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[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0350_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...SRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082003Z - 082130Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO N INTO THE
LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF WY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN
CO AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF SERN WY IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ADDITIONAL AREA
OF DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST N OF AN AXIS BETWEEN
DEN AND LIC...NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DENVER CYCLONE...WHICH
IS WELL DEFINED IN RECENT SURFACE OBS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OVER FAR NERN CO...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
PREVENTING MORE ROBUST SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. AT 19Z...A TONGUE OF
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM ITR NE TO FCL AND LAR/CYS.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM
/BASED ON 18Z DNR SOUNDING/...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK
SHOWERY CONVECTION ONGOING SINCE LATE MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN
AND INTENSIFY OVER SERN WY AND NRN CO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITHIN THE
DENVER CYCLONE...GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /UPPER 60S/ IS CLOSE
TO BEING ACHIEVED.

COMBINATION OF HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOCUS TIGHTENING HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
/40-80 KT/ MID-UPPER LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WY/CO. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO SELY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /IN EXCESS OF 40-50
KT/...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF DEN.


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[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

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[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL TX...SW AND S CENTRAL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082018Z - 082115Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF
NW AND N CENTRAL TX INTO SW/S CENTRAL OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...REQUIRING A WW
BEFORE 21Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NERN OK SW
TOWARD SPS AND W TOWARD LBB WHERE IT WAS ANCHORED BY A WEAK SURFACE
LOW. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO SWRN TX...WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SITUATED E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE COLD
FRONT. MORNING RAOBS AND RECENT 18Z LMN SOUNDING DEPICT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J PER KG/. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING
NE OUT OF NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NW/N CENTRAL TX AS EARLY AS 21Z.

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...AREA PROFILERS...AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE A BAND OF W-SWLY 40+ KT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-50 KT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. IN
ADDITION...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR STRONG COLD
POOL PRODUCTION AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EXPAND IN
COVERAGE.

..GARNER.. 06/08/2009

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[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO
NORTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082020Z - 082145Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM THREAT /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND/ MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL
MO INTO NORTHERN AR. INCREASING SIGNS OF SURFACE BASED DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON.


IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND A BOUT OF SUBSIDENCE
APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PREFRONTAL CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND/DEEPEN MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MO/SOUTHWEST IL AS OF 20Z. SURFACE MODIFIED 12Z SPRINGFIELD MO/18Z
LINCOLN IL RAOBS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH MORE CONTEMPORARY RUC
SOUNDINGS...IMPLY THAT LITTLE PREFRONTAL CINH REMAINS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F IN MOST LOCALES.
GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE
COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT UNCLEAR.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RESIDUAL MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND A RATHER UNSTABLE BOUNDARY /2000-3500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...AT
LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

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[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POTTER LAKE...OR NEAR MUKWONAGO...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUKWONAGO...
BIG BEND...
MUSKEGO...

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0352_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
NORTHERN RACINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
SOUTHEASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 401 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO
NORTHWEST OF UNION GROVE IN RACINE COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
ANOTHER TORNADO NEAR MUSKEGO MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.

[Joe-Nathan]

I HOPE MY WIFE'S FAMILY FARM IN KANSAS IS READY, THEY GOT A BULL'E EYE ON THEM TODAY!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM NERN CO ACROSS KS/MO AND ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...AND
FROM THE MDT RISK AREA SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE EAST FROM WRN NC TO SERN
PA...

...SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING ACROSS
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM
AZ/NM THIS MORNING TO MO BY TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM KS/OK EWD ACROSS
MO TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
LATER TODAY.

A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
INTO QUEBEC CANADA TODAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL PASS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA WITH RESIDUAL/WEAKENING STATIONARY PORTION
OF THIS FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY.

...NRN OK/SRN-CNTRL KS AND INTO WRN MO...
A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. TSTMS...ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WERE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AS MASS TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALONG THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT AS VERY UNSTABLE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM SRN/CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS OK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CAPPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY FUELING ELEVATED STORMS FROM KS INTO MO...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR THIS AREA...SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION AS STORMS INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED AS CAP IS
BREACHED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW AND
WARM FRONT...SOMEWHERE NEAR SRN KS/NRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA SHOULD ALSO LIE NEAR THE SWRN/SRN FLANK OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...IN A REGION WHERE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE STRENGTHENED AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/
AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS/MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR
TWO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON DISCRETE STORM
INITIATION NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE-POINT LOW ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...OR PERHAPS IN SRN/SERN KS
AT THE TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
20-22 UTC.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING FROM
NERN OK/ERN KS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN MO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM KS/OK INTO CNTRL MO.

...EAST...
AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS FROM
DELMARVA NWD ACROSS ERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CAROLINAS TO VA.
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN MARGINALLY SHEARED FLOW. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THESE AREAS.
GREATER PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE-TROUGH AND NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION AND
DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM PA ACROSS DELMARVA AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHER MULTICELLULAR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND/MARGINAL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN CO/WRN KS...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM
INITIATION AS WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. RESULTING
STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO HELICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE/LEE LOW AIDING STORM INFLOW AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CNTRL OK SWWD ALONG TX DRYLINE...
AN ENSEMBLE OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXTENSIVE TX DRYLINE FROM SPS/ABI
AREAS SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED BY STOUT EML...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCAL HEATING AND MIXING
ALONG THE GRADUALLY ADVANCING DRYLINE...ALONG WITH VERY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE
STORM INITIATION...ESPECIALLY IN TX. INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
WILL LEAD TO HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THIS REGIME.

THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM INITIATION WHICH
APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THIS AREA LIES
BETWEEN BETTER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION BREACHING THE
CAP WOULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
THUS...CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

LOOK AT THAT TRIPLE 9

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091216Z - 091315Z

ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN NEB PRIOR TO THE LLJ/WAA WEAKENING
SOME BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN KS INTO
SRN NEB. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED OVER SERN CO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH NRN
OK TO NRN AR. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE EXIT REGION OF A
SWLY 50 KT MID LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 45-50 KT WLY
JET OVER SD/NEB WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AN INFLOW
OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG SSWLY 30-35 KT LLJ COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 06/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0999.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

A warm front is expected to lift into the area today allowing rich gulf moisture to overspread the region. Storms are expected to develop this morning and lift off to the northeast as the afternoon hours approach. Another round of storms is likely late this afternoon. Any storm that develops this morning or afternoon will have a good chance of becoming severe

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ict/short/File.png

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ict/wx/File.png

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 905 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0354_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY SWWD INTO WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091548Z - 091715Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME HAIL. REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK AT 1630Z AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
N OF ART SWWD THROUGH WRN NY /E OF JHW/...NWRN PA INTO CNTRL OH. A
WARM FRONT THEN STRETCHED GENERALLY SSEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO W
OF UCA...E OF AVP INTO THE DELMARVA. CONSIDERABLE DIABATIC HEATING
WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BASED
ON MODIFICATION OF 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A NUMBER OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
IMPULSES AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE MOST
NOTABLE OF WHICH IS FEATURE OVER IND INTO WRN OH AS OF 1540Z.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS /REF. 12Z BUF SOUNDING/
WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE NY/PA BORDER WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN
ZONAL MOMENTUM WITH SWD EXTENT. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY
PROMOTE CLUSTERS AND/OR BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1001.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...

VALID 091611Z - 091745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM NEAR OR N OF EMP ESEWD INTO
W CNTRL MO.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS TSTMS ALONG SRN EDGE OF
EVOLVING MCS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL LOCATED OVER MORRIS COUNTY
KS AS OF 16Z. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE SITUATED JUST N OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM N OF DDC TO NEAR EMP TO N OF SGF.
GIVEN THE SLIGHT ACCELERATION NOTED WITHIN THE PAST FEW VOLUME
SCANS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
EXHIBIT SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION.

IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS IS ALREADY QUITE
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
MOREOVER...EVOLVING N-S CONVECTIVE BAND IS ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL
TO MODERATELY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. AS
SUCH...SETUP IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF
A BOWING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD MOVE/PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE
COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT. SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION TAKE PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG SYSTEM
PATH.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1002.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

AND SO IT BEGINS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 115 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF MILDRED...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF IOLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MILDRED...MORAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...

VALID 091759Z - 091930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354
CONTINUES.

TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE INVOF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AN WW UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANCHOR STORM SE OF EMP HAS EVOLVED
INTO A LARGE HP SUPERCELL SITUATED VERY NEAR SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
SLOWLY DEVELOPING NWD. INFLOW AIR MASS OVER SERN KS INTO SWRN MO IS
RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. WHEN COUPLED WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORM IS LIKELY INGESTING
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AS STORM CONTINUES ESEWD.
WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
STORM CAN LIMIT COLD POOL GENERATION.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1004.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0357_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
124 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MORAN...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUND CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
142 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.

* AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF LEBANON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILLOW
STREET...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS AND PARTS OF NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091834Z - 092000Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
FROM ERN FINNEY COUNTY ESEWD THROUGH FORD...EDWARDS AND AT LEAST
INTO PRATT COUNTY. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE MERGING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ATTENDANT TO KS/MO
MCS WITH NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT. HERE...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
HAS BEEN ENHANCED...BUT THE LIGHT ELY/ENELY WINDS IN THE COLD AIR
SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY SWD PUSH. AS SUCH...COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS WITH ANY MATURE
SUPERCELL MOTION LIKELY REMAINING LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
CURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT ANY CORRESPONDING TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1006.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

Note the clearing skies over N. Ok and S. Ks.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2009160.1845_ICT_vis.jpg

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
HOMEVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

* AT 204 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A RAIN WRAPPED
TORNADO 5 SOUTH OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
202 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
EASTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.

* AT 159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO MAY BE RAIN WRAPPED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEOSHO FALLS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF YATES
CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

* AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 13 MILES EAST OF LEBANON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LOMBARD...
OR 12 MILES WEST OF NEWARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
227 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

* AT 226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELSMORE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
IOLA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

* AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEBANON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

NWS CONTINUES TORNADO WARNING FOR:

BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN KANSAS.

[Joe-Nathan]

HERE YOU GO THE ONE V2 HAS BEEN WAITING ON:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0358_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAVA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT.

* AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEVADA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUNKER...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF
SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
SHANNON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF MIDRIDGE.

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 9 MILES EAST OF OSCEOLA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WARSAW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

THAT IS TEN DISCUSSIONS TODAY, WOO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / FAR SRN IL / FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092004Z - 092130Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP E OF TORNADO WATCH
357 WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 1950Z...UPSTREAM RADAR DATA INDICATED MORE DISCRETE STORMS
EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER SHANNON...DENT AND PULASKI
COUNTIES IN MO...AND A MORE ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX JUST S OF SZL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING TO THE N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM N OF SGF TO NEAR CGI TO NEAR EVV AS OF 20Z. AIR MASS
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF 45-60 KT
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS.

THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT
PLAN VIEW VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE 20 KT SLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE OVER SWRN MO WITH LIGHT SWLY WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND FROM
SERN MO INTO WRN KY. THUS...REGION RESIDES WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK
MASS DIVERGENCE THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP E OF WW 357 WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
OBSERVATIONS. SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1009.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

TORNADO WARNING CONTIUES FOR BOURBON & CRAWFORD COUNTIES, KS
UNITL 4:OOPM CDT

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEREDITH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR ENGLEVALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

* AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
232 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 315 PM MDT

* AT 232 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR MOUNT VERNON...OR 10 MILES WEST OF SIDNEY. A TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMINENCE...OR 30 MILES WEST
OF PIEDMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR GIRARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF HERMITAGE...NEAR THE TOWN OF
PRESTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REYNOLDS...OR 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
SHANNON COUNTY.

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTH OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTIES

[Joe-Nathan]

I don't think this storm is moving!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. PAUL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LIBERAL...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERDELLA...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTED REPORTED A WALL CLOUD WITH
TWO FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
421 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 420 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLINGTON...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PIEDMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 325 PM MDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR WHITMAN
ROAD CROSSING THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE MIDDLE LOUP RIVER... OR 31
MILES WEST OF MULLEN...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

* AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 7 MILES NORTH OF CONWAY...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEBANON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
439 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR CHEROKEE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR JASPER...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2009THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN HOOKER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 346 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITMAN TO
HYANNIS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MULLEN TO 31 MILES NORTH OF ARTHUR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DEUEL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 347 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
CHAPPELL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICHLAND...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

That's all folks, gotta commute to the house,
later,

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EAST CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MULLINVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MULLINVILLE...
GREENSBURG...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES.

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT.

* AT 653 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WALL CLOUD 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HUNTER. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED 6 MILES NORTH OF HUNTER
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OREGON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT.

* AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTH OF BIRCH TREE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ALTON BY 805 PM CDT.

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 923 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MCDOUGAL...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CORNING...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INCLUDE POLLARD...GREENWAY AND ST. FRANCIS.

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0363_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
STATES...AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.

AT THE SFC...A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...FRACTURED IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION...EXTENDS FROM ERN
CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK...AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY...2)
PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT...AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK...AND
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.

...SRN PLAINS...
IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.

STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK...AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK...EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
ACROSS WRN OK...AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
MORNING.

STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
IN ADDITION TO WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL...UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

...MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY...
A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION ATTM...POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL.

...EAST...
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
DAYS...INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/10/2009
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101404Z - 101530Z

TSTMS ONGOING OVER WRN TN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SLIGHT
RISK WILL BE ADJUSTED SWD WITH UPCOMING 1630Z ISSUANCE.

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A QUITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F AND 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-17
K/KG. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S.

PLAN VIEW PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC MID TO
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SEWD MOTION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN TN. GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
BOWING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1020.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101544Z - 101715Z

SEVERE STORM THREAT CURRENTLY OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TODAY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM PVW TO SW OF CDS AS OF 1530Z IS
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 30-40 KT WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING IT N OF
WW 363 BETWEEN 1600-1630Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN TX AND ERN NM
WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOTED INCREASE IN
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AT TUCUMCARI NM. COMPARISON OF 12Z ELP AND MAF
SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE TROPOSPHERIC COOLING IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE STRONGER
CAP OBSERVED FROM FWD THROUGH OUN.

LATEST TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL OK WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. WHILE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING...THIS
MOISTENING COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS AREA WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED ALONG AND E/SE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1021.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NM INTO NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...

VALID 101646Z - 101815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NERN PORTION OF WW
AREA...WITH DECREASING STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SERN NM.

AS OF 1640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES WITH
ANOTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORM OVER MOTLEY COUNTY. STORM MOTION
WAS 220/35 KT. FARTHER SW...VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
CHANNELS AND GOES SOUNDER PW DATA INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE
TROPOSPHERIC DRYING IS OCCURRING OVER SWRN TX INTO SERN NM IN WAKE
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH REGION. AS SUCH...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF U.S. 82
THROUGH 18Z.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1022.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0364_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / NERN OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101730Z - 101900Z

TSTM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR OR SW OF CNU
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM
THIS FEATURE THROUGH E-CNTRL MO. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES NEAR
AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH
THE 80S. MOREOVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS STEADILY INCREASED
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z SGF SOUNDING FOR SURFACE
CONDITIONS OVER SERN KS YIELDS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH A WEAKENING CAP. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GROWING
CUMULUS FIELD FROM BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN FAR SERN KS
ENEWD TO N OF SGF.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...CURRENT SGF VWP SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODESTLY
SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT. WHEN COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1023.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

SO IS THE WHITEHOUSE GOING TO HAVE STORM DAMAGE AGAIN TODAY?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL PA...MUCH OF MD...CENTRAL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101757Z - 101930Z

AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
S-CENTRAL PA SWD INTO MD AND VA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A WW.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING E THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARD A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER SRN IL. A ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO OBSERVED
EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN PA INTO S-CENTRAL/SWRN VA...WHERE AN AGITATED
CUMULUS FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE ERN HALF OF PA INTO VA HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THOUGH MORNING RAOBS AND CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...FAVORABLE SURFACE HEATING
AND MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY OVER OH/KY/WV SHOULD SPREAD E INTO
VA BY MID AFTERNOON...AND MAY INCREASE IN VIGOR AS THEY ENCOUNTER
LARGER INSTABILITY.

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST OVER PA
/30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. FARTHER S OVER
VA...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE LIKE IN
NATURE...DRIVEN MAINLY BY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS. THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT /AND POSSIBLE WW/ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GARNER.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1024.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC AND SC...NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101831Z - 102000Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA...EXPANDING
EWD INTO WRN NC/SC. AT THIS TIME...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER ERN
TN AND NRN GA...OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY REGION. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND E INTO THE REMAINDER OF NRN GA...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AIDING IN RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A FAVORABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...IS CONTRIBUTING
TOWARD 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AREA VWP DATA INDICATES THAT LOW
LEVEL WLY FLOW VEERS TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH
SPEEDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS WIND PROFILE
SHOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..GARNER.. 06/10/2009


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1025.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL AND NWRN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364...

VALID 101835Z - 102000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364
CONTINUES.

THROUGH 20Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
ERN HALF OF WW AREA.

MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS
LOCATED ALONG ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER CONVECTIVE
SHIELD...NAMELY FROM WILBARGER COUNTY TX AND JACKSON/TILLMAN
COUNTIES OK NEWD INTO CADDO AND BLAINE COUNTIES OK AS OF 1820Z. 18Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING HAVE
OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND N-CNTRL INTO NERN OK WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S. MOREOVER...ONGOING STORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

THUS FAR...ASOS AND OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NUMBER OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OBSERVED BY
UPSTREAM VWPS AND PROFILERS AND THE DECREASING STABILITY...EXPECT
TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH HAIL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1026.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY INTO THE NEB PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101936Z - 102030Z

THE THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST S
OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE BREAKS IN THE THICKER CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF
AROUND 500 J/KG. THESE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AND RESULTANT
0-3 KM MLCAPE OF 125-150 J PER KG/ COINCIDE WITH A RICH SOURCE OF
VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
VORTEX STRETCHING/AMPLIFICATION IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF ANY INTENSE
STORM UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL INTO THIS EVENING.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1027.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

WOUS64 KWNS 101909
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0365_overview_big_wou.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
123 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 200 PM MDT

* AT 121 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
129 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL GOSHEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 215 PM MDT

* AT 129 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLOMILL RESERVOIR...OR 24
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WHEATLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CITY OF ROANOKE IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN BOTETOURT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VINTON...OR
NEAR STEWARTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
157 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MORRILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT

* AT 154 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF AIRPORT...OR NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

Tornado warning continue in Scotts Bluff, Ne and Goshen,Wy

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
213 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 300 PM MDT

* AT 213 PM MDT...AMATEUR RADIO WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEVERANCE...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EAST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
BUNCH...OR 14 MILES EAST OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL THROCKMORTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 333 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HASKELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
259 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 257 PM MDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE
TORNADO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF EVANS...OR 5 MILES EAST OF GREELEY.
THIS SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KERSEY...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF
WOODSON...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
327 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MORRILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 327 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRICKER LAKES...OR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALLIANCE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...

[nightrider]

Looks like there may be a derecho developing over northern Ark. Wish this stuff could make down here.....

[Joe-Nathan]

Looks like there may be a derecho developing over northern Ark. Wish this stuff could make down here.....

Me to buddy, I have the spriklers on right now. It is way to dry to early. I feel like we are setting up for another TS Allison....

[nightrider]

I'm just outside edge the zone for severe weather on todays current outlook. I been in withdrawl here without anything to go after. When I get home this afternoon, I'm making a fire and doing my rain dance ritual.

[Joe-Nathan]

I am back

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111905Z - 112000Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING W OF WW 376
AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE TSTMS
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME SUSTAINED OVER BROWN AND COLEMAN COUNTIES NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF N TX MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BWD TO NE OF BGS. AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE SW HAS WARMED WELL INTO 90S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S...ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS IS RESULTING IN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

FARTHER NW...THE TIMING OF TSTM INITIATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
BUT...VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW A DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD OVER
THE TX S PLAINS INVOF ABOVE-MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
DRYLINE SURGING WWD THROUGH WRN TX. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AS POINTS TO THE SE...LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST
THAT MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
TO 2000-3000 J/KG INTO W-CNTRL TX. HERE TOO...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1053.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0375_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
WESTERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0376_radar_big.gif.

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MARYLAND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THE EXTREME ERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
112 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 200 PM MDT

* AT 111 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CASTLE
ROCK...OR 25 MILES SOUTH OF DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CASTLE
PINES...THE PINERY...SURREY RIDGE...SEDALIA...PONDEROSA PARK...
PERRY PARK...PARKER...FRANKTOWN...ELIZABETH...CASTLE ROCK...BEVERLY
HILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AURORA.

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0378_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
141 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTH CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT

* AT 139 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST
OF PARKER...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. ANOTHER STORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STRASBURG...
OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF DENVER. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STRASBURG...COUNTRY GARDENS AND BYERS

[Joe-Nathan]

The V2 guys should have pick CO.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0380_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT/500 PM EDT/.

* AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAZLETON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
HAZLETON...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL EASTLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF CISCO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CISCO BY 345 PM CDT...
EASTLAND BY 415 PM CDT...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
227 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 315 PM MDT

* AT 226 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF
BYERS...OR 39 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIMON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHAMROCK...
JOLLY RANCH...DEER TRAIL AND BYERS

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CROSS CUT...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLEMAN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
CROSS CUT BY 405 PM CDT...
LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR BYRDS STORE AND MAY BY 445 PM CDT...

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112043Z - 112215Z

TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR AMA ALONG OR JUST IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTING NWWD THROUGH CARSON...ARMSTRONG
AND RANDALL COUNTIES PER HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR DATA. THIS BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC FRONT WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO BE
LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE SWRN PNHDL.

LOW-LEVEL ENELY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS A RESULT...AIR MASS
IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG. DESPITE
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED GIVEN 40-50 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1057.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

Todd is moving to get on one of the Warned stroms in Colorado:

http://www.chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=219:todd-thorn&catid=20:chaser-pages&Itemid=82"

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
432 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
EASTERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHERN VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

* AT 427 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
KASSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
EVANSVILLE...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
425 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

* AT 424 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL LAWRENCE COUNTY...

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
531 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
EAST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT

* AT 530 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE STORM WHICH WAS RAPIDLY ROTATING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO NEAR FOWLER...OR ABOUT 29 MILES WEST OF LA JUNTA...WHICH
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLNEY SPRINGS.
MANZANOLA.
ROCKY FORD.

[wxchaser420]

COC011-120145-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090612T0145Z/
BENT CO-
722 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT FOR NORTHERN
BENT COUNTY...

AT 720 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH RAPID ROTATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED NEAR FORT
LYON...OR 21 MILES EAST OF LA JUNTA...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAS ANIMAS.
FORT LYON.
JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR.
HASTY.
CADDOA.

AT 722 PM STORM CHASERS SAW A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LAS ANIMAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A HOUSE IS IN A BASEMENT...UNDER STURDY
FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN
AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A CLOSET OR
BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER AND PROTECT YOUR BODY FROM
FLYING DEBRIS. ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...OR IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...GO TO A
NEARBY STURDY STRUCTURE AND GET IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF THERE IS NO STURDY
STRUCTURE AVAILABLE...AS A LAST RESORT...GO TO A CULVERT...DITCH...OR
OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

----------------------------------
The inflow notch of that supercell is currently moving right over top of Ft. Lyon correctional facility with 104kt gate-to-gate shear on the SRV. Maybe it will tears down those walls and set my father free! /Wow

http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n9/wxchaser420/dadtornado.png

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&q=fort%20lyon%20correctional%20facility&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl