6/27/09-6/29/09 Severe Weather thread

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS ND AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NE SD/WRN MN...

...COASTAL PLAIN OF NC/SC THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS VA TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS...IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
OFFSHORE WHILE ROTATING AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER PA...WILL
CONTINUE SWD TOWARD NC BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
WAVE IN NC WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING...WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 90S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S JUST INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING WHILE MOVING TO THE COAST.

DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE N. LONG FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CAN PROPAGATE SWD OR
EVEN SSWWD ALONG THE STALLED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACKED AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...

A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE PROGRESSING ESEWD TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE FROM NW MN INTO WRN
ONTARIO...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS
WI/IL/MO/OK BY 28/12Z. A LINGERING RESERVOIR OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS AND STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN
MO/ERN IA/WRN IL AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BOTH TO N ACROSS WI AND TO THE SW ACROSS
NW OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF LESSER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PHASED WELL TODAY WITH THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SINCE THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
POST-FRONTAL. THUS...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THE
RELATIVELY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INVOF
SW WI AND ERN IA. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING.

...ND/WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...
AS PART OF THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS...A
WELL-DEFINED SPEED MAX IS ROTATING EWD FROM SE MT TO ND. DESPITE
BEING POST-FRONTAL...ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED MAX ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /50S DEWPOINTS/ AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL SUPPORT WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL ND AND THEN SPREAD EWD TO ERN ND/WRN MN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

</pre>

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Day 2 outlook possible chase day ?




SPC AC 270527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM ALBERTA SWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. A MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND SE
EXTENDING FROM THE NERN...MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES WWD THROUGH
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PORTION OF OH VALLEY THROUGH PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...

SOME STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AHEAD OF FRONT EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM
SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
OVER THE OH VALLEY PORTION OF WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE
SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING.


...SRN PLAINS...

UPPER FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THIS REGION DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE LACK OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
FORCING...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF TX. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE
EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL.. 06/27/2009
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE</pre>

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
DICKINSON NORTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DETROIT LAKES
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS ND IN VICINITY OF UPPER VORT MAX. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

</pre>

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 246 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES NORTH OF CANDO
...OR 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
5 MILES EAST OF CANDO AT 255 PM CDT...
NEWVILLE AT 310 PM CDT...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

NDC095-272015-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-090627T2015Z/
TOWNER ND-
259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER COUNTY...

AT 257 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED NUMEROUS FUNNEL CLOUDS. THE
FUNNELS WERE LOCATED 10 MILES 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANDO TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CANDO...OR 32 MILES NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NEWVILLE BY 310 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 525 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0525.html)...WW 526 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0526.html)...WW 527 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0527.html)...

DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO TX
PANHANDLE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THE AIR MASS IS HOT WITH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY ERN PORTION OF WATCH. PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY VICINITY
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGH BASES WITH DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG...SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY
STRONG UPDRAFT THAT DEVELOPS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH THE
VERY WARM AIRMASS LIMITING THE HAIL SIZE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 2
INCHES IN MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 2705.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/ND AND WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0525.html)...

VALID 272202Z - 272300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES FOR WW
525. IN ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF
ERN SD AND WRN MN OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH BOX. FORECAST OFFICES MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING COUNTIES TO WW 525.

A COMPACT AND SEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PROGRESSING E TOWARD MN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH FAST MEAN
WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR QUICK MOVING MULTICELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS OVER ERN ND AND SD...AND INTO WRN MN...WHERE CLEAR SKIES
ARE AIDING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT
IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF WW 525...MAINLY
OVER ERN SD AND WRN MN.

..GARNER.. 06/27/2009

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
708 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WEST
ASHLEY...OR ABOUT OVER CHARLESTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
WEST ASHLEY...NORTH CHARLESTON...
CHARLESTON...
JOHNS ISLAND...
JAMES ISLAND...
FOLLY BEACH...KIAWAH ISLAND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JEDBURG...
OR ABOUT OVER PINEWOOD PREPARATORY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
RIDGEVILLE...
JEDBURG...
PINEWOOD PREPARATORY...
KNIGHTSVILLE...SLANDS BRIDGE...
SUMMERVILLE...SANGAREE...

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Slight risk



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL DEVELOP SEWD
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM MN/WI TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A 60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM EWD WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH
ONTARIO IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
SWWD THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SWRN TX
AND SRN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG FRONT TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM OH SWWD THROUGH PARTS
OF KY/TN INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/DEWPOINTS OF 65-75 F/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500
J/KG OVER OH TO 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS KY/TN INTO NRN PARTS OF
MS/AL/GA.

THIS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE TO THE S OF MIDLEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
INDICATING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY WINDS WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
RANGING FROM 45-50 KT ACROSS OH TO LESS THAN 30 KT S OF THE KY/TN
BORDER. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

...LOWER MI...

SIMILAR TO SATURDAY OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN...CLUSTERS OF
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT WITHIN ZONE
OF DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...

A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE /ORIENTED W-E/ IS EXPECTED TO SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/...SOME
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

...CO ROCKIES INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WRN EXTENSION OF 60-70 KT UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK TRAILING OH VALLEY SYSTEM WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS...SOME THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..MEAD/GARNER.. 06/28/2009
</pre>

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NRN
AL TO ERN TN/KY AND VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS A
DEEPENING UPSTREAM LOW DRIFTS ESEWD FROM WRN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER LAKE MI WILL
CONTINUE EWD TO OH/WRN PA BY THIS EVENING AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY TONIGHT...AND SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

...ERN KY/TN AREA SWWD INTO NRN AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
LOW-MID 70S S TO THE UPPER 60S AS FAR N AS CENTRAL KY. RELATIVELY
QUICK EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID
60S DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TODAY N OF THE OH RIVER...WHILE THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE EXPECTED FARTHER SW ALONG THE FRONT
FROM ERN KY SWD. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL DIMINISH FROM NE TO SW...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS ERN TN/KY THIS
AFTERNOON. HERE...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING WHILE BUILDING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

...NE TX TO NRN MS...AND SEWD TO N FL THIS AFTERNOON...
FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT FROM NE TX INTO NRN MS...HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
HYBRID MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.

A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS S GA/N FL...WHERE A DIFFUSE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP FOCUS ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.

...CO AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD INVOF OF THE
PALMER RIDGE DURING THE EVENING. WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
WITH 60-70 KT FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFT
VENTILATION...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 06/28/2009
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN AL...NRN/CENTRAL GA AND FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281639Z - 281745Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TN...NERN AL AND NWRN GA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. BACK DOOR FRONT/WEAKER INSTABILITY
STRETCHING N-S FROM ERN GA INTO EXTREME ERN TN SHOULD MARK THE ERN
EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL SPREAD
SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL GA/FAR WRN NC LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WOULD BE NEEDED ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS
DEVELOP.

AT 16Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR LEX SWWD INTO MIDDLE
TN...IN THE BNA AREA...AND INTO NRN MS NEAR OXFORD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAD WARMED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S...RESULTING IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES
UP TO 3000 J/KG. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WINDS ALOFT
VEERING FROM WLY TO NWLY AND MID LEVEL WINDS AT 20-25 KT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 2 KM SUGGEST WET MICROBURSTS/WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..IMY.. 06/28/2009

</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1365.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS PARTS OF
TN/AL/GA IN AXIS OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. PWAT VALUES OVER 2
INCHES...MLCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE SLOW-MOVING MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WET
MICROBURSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.


...HART
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AL... WRN/ CENTRAL GA...AND SERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0530.html)...

VALID 281924Z - 282030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530
CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD SEWD AT 15-20 KT.

SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED WITHIN THE WATCH
AND AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO GROW IN SIZE AND OUTFLOWS
CONSOLIDATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE. THE
STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS AT 19Z WERE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN
TN...IN A BAND FROM EAST OF ANB TO N OF TCL AND IN ANOTHER BAND
BETWEEN CSG AND ABY IN CENTRAL GA. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
90S/LOWER TO MID 70S...HIGH PW VALUES AND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND WIND DAMAGE.

..IMY.. 06/28/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1367.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 530 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0530.html)...WW 531 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0531.html)...

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE ONLY AROUND 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ARE
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND WIND DAMAGE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 34020.


...IMY
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0532_radar.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 530 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0530.html)...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING
REPORTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 32020.


</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

COC041-119-282200-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090628T2200Z/
TELLER CO-EL PASO CO-
301 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTH CENTRAL TELLER COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH RAPID ROTATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED NEAR
WOODLAND PARK...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND WAS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODLAND PARK.
CRYSTOLA.
GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS.
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.

[ROLLTIDE]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

COC041-119-282200-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090628T2200Z/
TELLER CO-EL PASO CO-
325 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTH CENTRAL TELLER COUNTIES...

AT 321 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH RAPID ROTATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED NEAR
WOODLAND PARK...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODLAND PARK AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF WOODLAND PARK.
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.

THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THIS STORM.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
718 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LLOYD...OR
10 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAPITOLA BY 730 PM EDT...
CHAIRES CROSSROADS AND CHAIRES BY 735 PM EDT...
COREY...ROSE...LAFAYETTE AND 7 MILES EAST OF BELLAIR BY 745 PM
EDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN GA...SERN AL...NRN FL...CENTRAL/ERN
PANHANDLE OF FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0531.html)...

VALID 282305Z - 290100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531
CONTINUES.

BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 2245Z NEAR LINE FROM JAX...25
NNE TLH...AGE...MAI -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS WW AREA. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WELL-HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY...WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
LIFTING OF HIGH THETAE PARCELS TO LFC ALONG LEADING WALL OF
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
SOMEWHAT MORE STABILIZED POST-SEA BREEZE AIR MASS S OF WW...WHERE
LOSS OF STRONGEST HEATING ALSO IS REDUCING BUOYANCY WITH TIME.

ISOLATED TSTMS STILL MAY OCCUR BEHIND PRIMARY ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
OVER NWRN FRINGE OF WW...AND JUST NE OF WW IN SAV AREA WHERE POCKET
OF RELATIVELY HOT/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL LINGER FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. STG-SVR TSTMS INVOF CSG AS OF 2245S MAY MOVE
SEWD OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW...BUT INTO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER
OUTFLOW POOL...WITH WEAKENING TREND ANTICIPATED. COMBINED
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MCS OUTFLOW AND UPCOMING DIABATIC SFC COOLING
SUGGEST SVR POTENTIAL HAS BECOME MRGL/DISORGANIZED OVER REMAINDER WW
AREA BEHIND MCS. PRIND WW MAY BE CLEARED OVER MOST AREAS BEHIND
INITIAL MCS...WITH ANY REMAINING PORTIONS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 01Z.
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...SERN
TN...AL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0530.html)...532 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0532.html)...

VALID 282327Z - 290130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
530...532...CONTINUES.

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WW AREA...FROM ERN TN ACROSS ERN AL/WRN
GA AND CENTRAL MS...STILL MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR
SVR LIMITS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW MORE TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP...PRIMARILY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG INTERSECTIONS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WITH BRIEF/LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
HOWEVER...GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND MORE LOCALIZED/MRGL SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVEN COMBINED STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM
1. EVER-EXPANDING OUTFLOW POOLS PRODUCED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND
2. DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND RELATED INCREASE IN MLCINH AFTER 00Z.

THEREFORE...REMAINING PORTIONS WWS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED.

UNTIL THEN...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF PARAMETERS SUPPORTING SVR POTENTIAL WILL SURROUND
ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NERN THROUGH E-CENTRAL AL...WITH 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH ABOUT 01Z...AND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE IN SUPPORT OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2009

</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1372.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
826 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CRAWFORDVILLE...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CRAWFORDVILLE BY 840 PM EDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

Look for live streaming video today if the storms go severe on the gulfcoast today

[ROLLTIDE]

Day 1



SE ATLANTIC/GULF COASTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE SE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WELL TO THE S OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...AND THE
DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BEFORE THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES JUST AFTER
SUNSET.
</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291701Z - 291900Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN GA AND NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING TCU AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL.
TWO ZONES OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE INDICATED IN
SURFACE/SATELLITE DATA...ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF SAV TO SOUTH OF
DHN...AND THE OTHER ACROSS FAR NORTH FL. THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS THE MID 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000
J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. MORNING RAOBS ALSO SHOWED
SUBSTANTIAL WATER CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT
WITH A FEW LAYERS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COMBINATION
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO PULSE OR DISORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

..HART.. 06/29/2009
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

WUUS54 KLCH 292219
SVRLCH
LAC001-045-053-055-099-101-113-292315-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0130.090629T2219Z-090629T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW IBERIA...JEANERETTE...AVERY
ISLAND...
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. MARTINVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RAYNE...MERMENTAU...CROWLEY...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JENNINGS...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ST. MARTINVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF JENNINGS AND
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JEANERETTE.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NEW IBERIA BY 535 PM CDT...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LYDIA BY 550 PM CDT...
JEANERETTE BY 610 PM CDT...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHARENTON AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALDWIN BY
615 PM CDT...

THESE ARE A DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SW MO...AR...ERN
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AND
VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR SRN MT AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...AR/SW MO/ERN OK AREA TODAY...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SW MO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG A STALLED NW-SE
FRONTAL SEGMENT. THE 25-30 KT WSWLY LLJ WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING AND WAA WILL DECREASE...BUT THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALSO
APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY-DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING SEWD
FROM NE KS...AROUND THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED
LOW. THE CONTINUED SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE NE KS SPEED MAX...IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE CLUSTER
TOWARD THE FEED OF GREATER INSTABILITY FROM ERN OK. MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT WITH THE SPEED MAX WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...SRN MT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM SRN BC TO AB AND SK
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS ADJACENT PARTS OF WA/ID/MT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A WEAK LEE TROUGH AND NNW-SSE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW AND S CENTRAL MT...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ENEWD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY FROM
THE LEE TROUGH TO THE STALLED FRONT FARTHER E ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...FROM ERN MT TO THE NEB PANHANDLE. HERE...WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...CENTRAL/ERN NY AND VICINITY TODAY...
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ESEWD AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED WAVE
OF RELEVANCE TODAY WILL MOVE FROM ERN OH/WRN PA THIS MORNING TO ERN
PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ALSO PRECEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. ASSUMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN
WARM INTO THE 70S WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS...THE COMBINATION OF COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-13 T0 -14 C AT 500 MB/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY... EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

...ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SE AZ
WITH STORMS SPREADING WSWWD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...AFTER CLOUD
DEBRIS CLEARS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW BELT OF 20-30 KT ELY/ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL INTO SE TX
INVOF OF THE STALLED/DIFFUSE FRONT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL FL WHERE
MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS/INTERACTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

WUUS54 KLCH 292219
SVRLCH
LAC001-045-053-055-099-101-113-292315-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0130.090629T2219Z-090629T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
...

Those storms were pretty cool to watch from my office window yesterday. They had wind gust upto 60mph reported in Iberia ph. I know we had atleast a 30mph gust here at the office. Wish I could have gotten out and shot some video/pics./darn

[ROLLTIDE]

The size of that warning box was huge and I was wondering if you got to intercept it

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTH CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HAZEL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JOSCELYN AND ROCKLAND BY 150 PM EDT...
LEWBEACH BY 205 PM EDT...
DUNRAVEN AND WOLF HOLLOW BY 230 PM EDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

* AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FAIRFIELD...OR NEAR LINCOLN PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WAYNE BY 415 PM...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POMPTON LAKES BY 420 PM...
PATERSON BY 425 PM...
HAWTHORNE BY 435 PM...
RIDGEWOOD...PARAMUS...ORADELL AND RAMSEY BY 445 PM...

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN ARKANSAS AND ERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534...

VALID 302047Z - 302145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534
CONTINUES.

AT 2030Z...VERY INTENSE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL AR MOVING SEWD AT 20-25 KT. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-35 KT ACROSS AR AND
MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND
CENTRAL AR.

IN OK...TCU AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR OKC ENEWD TO AROUND FYV. INSTABILITY
IS A LITTLE WEAKER IN OK THAN AR DUE TO STRONGER HEATING/MIXING...
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES AS THESE STORMS SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND
MOVE SEWD ALONG THE FRONT.

..IMY.. 06/30/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1384.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0534_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND BLACK HILLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302052Z - 302215Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS TSTMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG LEE
TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT/WY AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WITH COMPARATIVELY
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AND A WW SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY.

20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW NEAR GDV WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR DGW. CU/CB FIELD HAS INCREASED ALONG
THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AIDED
BY HEATING AND SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHING THE CREST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL KINEMATIC PROFILE SHOULD BE
MODEST...MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE VEERING FOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. SURFACE DEW
POINTS AOA 50 F GENERALLY REMAINS RESTRICTED E OF WY BEFORE ARCING
NWWD INTO FAR ERN MT. THUS...OVERALL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MT BORDER OF ND/SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER S...WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WILL BE LARGER...DRY MICROBURSTS WOULD LIKELY BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 06/30/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1385.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0535_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2009


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT.

* AT 336 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
SOUTH OF POPLAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
POPLAR AND BROCKTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
556 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WIBAUX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT.

* AT 555 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WIBAUX...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
YATES AND SAINT PHILLIP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.