7/5/09-7/7/09 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER THREAD

[Joe-Nathan]

LOOKS LIKE BOW ECHOS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
VLY/MID-SOUTH...


...TN VLY/MID-SOUTH...
DEEP WLY FLOW IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS ABOVE 6KFT AGL CONTRIBUTED TO
QUICK EVOLUTION INTO BOW ECHOES ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY THIS
AFTN...PARTICULARLY INVOF A BOUNDARY SITUATED E-W ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MIDDLE
TN/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD
OUTRUN THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING. EXPECT DMGG
WIND/HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO THREATS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING.

...SRN PLNS...
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO THRIVE WITHIN POCKETS OF CAPE
THAT HAVE YET TO BE EXHAUSTED IN CNTRL/SRN OK SWWD TO WCNTRL TX.
MODEL PROGS DO NOT SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL LLJ OR UPR LVL FEATURE TO AID
IN BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THUS...EXPECT THAT ASIDE
FROM AN ISOLD EVENING MICROBURST AND/OR MARGINALLY SVR
HAILSTONE...MOST STORMS WILL BE SUB-SVR AND THRIVE ALONG ENHANCED
MESOSCALE LIFT/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS...
BELT OF 35+ KT WLY H5 FLOW CONTINUES TO CARRY MINOR PERTURBATIONS
EWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS THIS EVENING.
HIGH TERRAIN MULTICELLS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAVE RANDOMLY EVOLVED ALONG THE ADJACENT
PLNS/VLYS IN CNTRL WY/ERN CO. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-EVENING. BUT...LOSS
OF HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WANING CAPE AND A SUBSEQUENT
DECREASE IN SVR THREATS AFT ABOUT 03-04Z.

..RACY.. 07/05/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0416Z (11:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF BLUE
GOOSE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INCLUDE BARGERTON...WILDERSVILLE AND DARDEN. THIS WARNING ALSO
INCLUDES BEECH LAKE AND PIN OAK LAKE.

[ROLLTIDE]

Live streaming possible today !!

[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ERN U.S. WITH CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING OVER
SERN ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AS FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH REACHES PAC NW BY 12Z MON.

EFFECTIVE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE CONTINUED TO WORK S AND E
PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NRN GA WWD TO SRN AR INTO N TX.
CONVECTION WILL TRANSITION WITH HEATING OF THE WARM SECTOR TO
BASICALLY ELEVATED NON-SEVERE N OF BOUNDARIES TO A THREAT OF SEVERE
BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO S OF BOUNDARIES.

UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW AGAIN TODAY LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.

...GULF STATES...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS STRADDLES THE E/W SURFACE BOUNDARIES NRN GULF
STATES WITH PW/S TO NEAR 2 INCHES. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE...STRONG HEATING OF WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE
WILL GENERATE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500
J/KG. BY EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARIES FROM NRN GA WWD TO
SRN AR. DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ONLY MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30KT OR SO
COUPLED WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT FOR A LITTLE HIGHER POTENTIAL OF
LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOPING FROM ERN MS INTO WRN GA AND ACCORDINGLY
GREATER WIND DAMAGE CONCERN.

...UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN UPSLOPE BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY SWD TO
NERN NM...ASSURING AGAIN THERE WILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. VEERING PROFILES PROVIDE 30-40KT OF SHEAR...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS ABOVE
50F...BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARD TO 1000 J/KG.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DOWNBURSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AND PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL. STORMS WILL NOT MOVE
TOO FAR OUT INTO THE PLAINS PRIOR TO WEAKENING DUE TO MORE LIMITED
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
WHILE THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT UNTIL
TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TODAY.

WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY GREATER THAN 8C/KM AND A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...HIGH BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ERN
WA/NERN ORE EWD TO WRN MT. WITH NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...LOWER MI...
COOL/CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG WITH PW/S AOA .75 INCH
SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. 60KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATES SEWD INTO LWR MI
THIS AFTERNOON AIDING BOTH SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BY EVENING.

..HALES/GARNER.. 07/05/2009

</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

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[ROLLTIDE]

Verona [Lee Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:48 AM CDT — several trees down
…Tupelo [Lee Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:50 AM CDT — power lines down
…Plantersville [Lee Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:51 AM CDT — several trees down

[Joe-Nathan]

I am liking this pattern. I might be headed out to get some pics/vids this afternoon. Looking good.

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[Joe-Nathan]

JULY 5, 2009
20Z - 0Z
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0Z - 4Z
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4Z - 12Z
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[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF SELMA
ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

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[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LIMON COLORADO TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAS
VEGAS NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

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[ROLLTIDE]

We need to get you started streaming !!

[ROLLTIDE]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...GA...AL...ECNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0550.html)...

VALID 052036Z - 052130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550
CONTINUES.

TWO MCSS HAVE EVOLVED OVER WW550...PRIMARILY ALONG TWO WEAK ZONES OF
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITH BOTH CLUSTERS BEGINNING TO FORM COLD POOLS BENEATH MODEST WLY
FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED ALONG LEADING EDGE
OF EACH MCS.

..DARROW.. 07/05/2009
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT.

* AT 354 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTH OF
LUSTRE...OR 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SCOBEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LUSTRE

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AL...CNTRL/SRN GA...NRN FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 052210Z - 052315Z

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR OR GREATER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS ESEWD.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE SURGED SEWD WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TO THE N. ONE LIES ROUGHLY FROM MERIDIAN MS ARCING TOWARDS ANNISTON
AL...AND ANOTHER IS ARCING JUST SWWD OF DOTHAN AL TO THE EAST OF
MACON GA. VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AROUND THESE AREAS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION IS NOW REMOVED FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE N...AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ARE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TRAINING OF STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BE SUSTAINED IN THESE AREAS AS THE BOUNDARIES SLOWLY SAG
SEWD TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN GA/NERN FL...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE
COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PWAT FROM THIS MORNING HAS
LIKELY INCREASED TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES AN HOUR OR GREATER HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BENEATH ONGOING CONVECTION.

..HURLBUT.. 07/05/2009

</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
419 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 500 PM MDT

* AT 419 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR CASTLE ROCK...OR 25 MILES SOUTH OF DENVER. THIS STORM WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE
PINERY...PARKER...FRANKTOWN AND CASTLE ROCK.

[Joe-Nathan]

We need to get you started streaming !!

I know, I am just one good paycheck away from making it happen.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF
TYLER TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

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[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA AND FAR
NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0550.html)...

VALID 052312Z - 060015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AL TO CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS EVENING ATTENDANT TO LEADING EDGE OF AN
MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TALLADEGA TO NRN LOWNDES COUNTIES AL.
A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF WW 550 IN CENTRAL GA MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THIS WATCH WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROUP COUNTY GA AROUND 00Z.

AT 23Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT EMANATED FROM THE SRN GA/SERN AL MCS EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL
AL /JUST N OF AUO/ INTO CENTRAL GA /35 S ATL/. THE LINE OF TSTMS
HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST HOUR /35-40 KT/...
WITH THE LINE TRACKING EWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL...THREAT
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE GREATER FROM EAST CENTRAL AL INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.

FARTHER SE OVER SERN AL/SRN GA...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
CONTINUING TO TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /REFER TO SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 FOR MORE DETAILS/. HOWEVER...GIVEN
LOCATIONS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-25 DEGREES...A FEW STRONG WET
MICROBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM FAR SERN AL/GA INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF FAR NRN FL.
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
644 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

COC075-060115-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-090706T0115Z/
LOGAN CO-
644 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 643 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STERLING. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STERLING.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...LARGE
QUANTITIES OF SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN JUST NORTH OF STERLING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF STERLING OVER
THE NEXT 20 MINUTES.

[Joe-Nathan]

It sure would be nice if this line could keep it together and reach my house. But alas, NWS thinks not (PS-looks like NightRider is going to get some Rain)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009


UPDATE

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF A VILLAGE MILLS TO VILLE PLATTE LINE. KLCH AND KSHV 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT POTENTIAL ENERGY AVAILABLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS...ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW COLLIDING WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY TRACKING ACRS THE REGION...HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

24

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[nightrider]

It sure would be nice if this line could keep it together and reach my house. But alas, NWS thinks not (PS-looks like NightRider is going to get some Rain)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009



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Lets hope so, I can see the lighting off in the distance.

[Joe-Nathan]

LOOKS LIKE MONTANA HAS THE BULLSEYE TODAY

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR FLOW PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY.
STUBBORN UPR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER ONT/QUE THROUGH THE PD AS MID-LVL
JET STREAKS DIG SEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. UPSTREAM...UPR RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD NWD
TOWARD THE NRN PLNS AS THE ERN PAC UPR TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W AND NRN ROCKIES.

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLNS...
A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN W...DOWNSTREAM FROM A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
TOWARD SRN BC/AB. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER MONDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY
AFTN...BOTH BY CONTRIBUTIONS FROM RECYCLED MOISTURE AND ADVECTION OF
50S DEW POINTS FROM THE HIGH MT/WY PLAINS. BY AFTN...STRONG HEATING
AND STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BOOST MLCAPES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG AS FAR W AS THE DIVIDE.

COMBINATION OF INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
AND ENHANCED LLVL CONVERGENCE INVOF MOUNTAINS/SFC LEE LOW WILL LEAD
TO SCTD TSTMS OVER ERN ID/WRN MT BY MID-AFTN. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
A BACKING MID-LVL FLOW REGIME AOA 45 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS THE
INITIATION ZONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT
FAIRLY STRONG AND DEEP SWLYS. WHILE A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING STORM INFANCY /ISOLD TORNADOES PSBL/...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT WITH SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL SPREADING ACROSS
CNTRL MT DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD AND/OR DEVELOP
SWD INTO PARTS OF NRN WY AS WELL. THE SVR THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT OVER ERN MT...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
AWAY FROM THE STRONGER FORCING.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS...
MODEST WNWLY FLOW ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF A WEAK UPR LVL WAVE
TRANSLATING E OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WILL ADVECT SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR MASS EWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THUS...FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL BE
FARTHER E THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...LIKELY INITIATING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLNS. LLVL MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/
ARE FCST TO BE MAINTAINED ALONG/E OF THIS FEATURE...CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES TO 1500-2500 J/KG.

NEXT WEAK UPR JET STREAK...NOW OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN...WILL REACH
THE TROUGH BY AFTN AND RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM ERN CO SWD INTO
CNTRL NM. ROUGHLY 40 KTS OF WNW H5 FLOW ATOP WEAK SELY LLVL WINDS
WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO TSTM CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING
AND MIGRATE SEWD INTO WRN KS...TX-OK PNHDLS AND ERN NM WITH THREATS
FOR HIGH WINDS/HAIL.

...NRN NY AND CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MID-LVL WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF THE SERN CANADA UPR LOW WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. SYSTEM IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL TSTMS MOVING INTO WRN NY. DOWNSTREAM...SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LWR-MID 50S BENEATH RELATIVELY COLD MID-LVL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENENCE OF TSTMS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN/ERN NY AND
NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. MODEST WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STG/ISOLD SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS.

...SERN STATES TO E TX...
COMPLEX ARRAY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. HEATING AMIDST A WEAK CAP AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THESE BOUNDARIES ON MONDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM MERGERS WILL AT LEAST BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 07/06/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks

16Z - 20Z
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/enh16Z-20Z.gif

20Z - 0Z
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/enh20Z-0Z.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2009

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE PAC NW AND WILL ROTATE NEWD
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTN. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH AND AT 12Z WAS LOCATED FROM ERN WA SWWD TO CENTRAL CA.

DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO NRN PLAINS MAINTAINING A NWLY FLOW
IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SERN ONTARIO
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF ERN U.S. THE VERY MOIST/GULF AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING E/W COLD FRONT INLAND PORTIONS OF
GULF STATES TO SWRN TX.

...NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
AS SUPPORTED BY THE OBSERVED STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU ERN WA THIS AM...THE S/WV TROUGH AND ITS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE
HEATING OF AN ALREADY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF MT WILL DEVELOP
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY GIVEN THE OBSERVED 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES...TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS STORM INITIATION INTO WRN MT AS MLCAPES
CLIMB TO AOA 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY E OF DIVIDE...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
BACKED AND WITH GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS STILL WOULD
BE MAIN THREAT...ANY SUPERCELL WOULD ALSO PROVIDE A TORNADO
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME PRIMARILY LINEAR MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN MT AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN WY AS S/WV SWINGS NEWD
ACROSS THIS AREA. AGAIN WIND DAMAGE INCLUDING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
WIND WILL BE LIKELY ONCE A SQUALL LINE BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE...
MOIST UPSLOPE WILL AGAIN SETUP THIS AFTERNOON FRONT RANGE AND WITH
25-30KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEAD TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH PREVAILING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S...MLCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL RANGE UPWARDS
TO 1500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS STORMS
PROPAGATE SEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. PRIMARY THREAT...PARTICULARLY
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS LESSER INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE EWD INTO PLAINS AS WELL AS LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...GULF COAST...
A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF GULF
STATES IN ADVANCE OF WEAK FRONTAL BAND. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IN
THE SRN PORTION OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN U.S TO SUPPORT COLD
POOL DEVELOPMENT/LINE SEGMENT FORMATION WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FOR AN
INCREASED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

...NEW ENGLAND...
ONE IMPULSE NOW ROTATING NEWD ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH
ANOTHER DROPPING SEWD AROUND COLD LOW. THIS S/WV CURRENTLY CROSSING
UPPER LAKES AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BACK INTO UPSTATE NY AND
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. WHILE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS...GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT...HAIL IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE A
THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SHEAR ALSO IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IF MORE INSTABILITY THAN NOW EXPECTED CAN DEVELOP.

..HALES/GARNER.. 07/06/2009

</pre>


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[ROLLTIDE]

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[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2009

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND ADJACENT
NRN WY INTO WRN ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE GULF COAST


..NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS FROM MT/NRN WY TO WRN ND

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADEQUATE AIRMASS BUOYANCY FOR ROBUST TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING FRONT
WILL ACT TO FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DEVELOP EWD INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-MIXED MLCAPE AOA
1000 J/KG. ALL GUIDANCE REVIEWED FOR THIS OUTLOOK STRONGLY SUGGEST A
SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR MCS SWEEPING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF MT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
GIVEN THE PRE-STORM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND 50-60KT MID
LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE MCS...EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
WITH A COUPLE OF LOCAL TSTM WIND EVENTS PERHAPS APPROACHING 70KT.

IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY...THAT A FEW DISCRETE CELLS
COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EITHER EARLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT CYCLE...OR EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. A
LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE FROM STORMS EXHIBITING
THIS BEHAVIOR. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

..CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS

AIRMASS BACKED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONTINUES TO CONTAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE/PW VALUES TODAY /AROUND 150 PCT OF NORMAL/.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO
ELIMINATING ANY INHIBITION. WHILE LOW LEVEL ELY/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...25-30KT NWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW
BETTER ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS EVENTUALLY GENERATING HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS
THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR OFF THE FRONT RANGE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NEB PNHDL SWD TO TX PNHDL MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALLOW STORMS
OR STORM CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD THIS EVENING WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..GULF COAST

A NUMBER OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS EXIST AMIDST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE
GULF COAST FROM TX TO FL. POCKETS OF INTENSE HEATING WHERE AIRMASS
HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED BY DEEP CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. LAND
AREAS REMAINING UNAFFECTED BY ONGOING OR PRIOR STORMS ARE LIMITED
AND THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS.

..NORTHEAST

PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH /50-60KT JET STREAK/ EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG AND PERSISTENT BELT OF NW FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS NRN ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS TRAILING
CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY NEAR SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AREA. HEATING IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ATTM AND EXPECTED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO RESULT
IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AREAS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
20-35KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW BETTER
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND DURATION
GIVEN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/SMITH/COOK/GOSS.. 07/06/2009
</pre>

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[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 300 PM MDT

* AT 223 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MARYSVILLE...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF HELENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
722 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 722 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LIMON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LIMON...
HUGO...GENOA AND ARRIBA.

HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

[ROLLTIDE]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
743 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

COC039-073-070200-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-090707T0200Z/
LINCOLN CO-ELBERT CO-
743 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 743 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF HUGO...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIMON. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUGO...GENOA AND ARRIBA.

HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1011 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM MDT.

* AT 1009 PM MDT...A WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TORNADO
NEAR NASHUA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF GLASGOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FRAZER...OSWEGO AND LUSTRE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NY...WRN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN
PORTIONS VT/NH TO CT.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071259Z - 071530Z

SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FROM ABOUT 14-15Z
TIME FRAME ONWARD...WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STG-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE
MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY LOCAL TIME. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK OCCLUSION/TRIPLE POINT LOW BETWEEN
JFK-POU...WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SWWD ACROSS PHL AREA. OCCLUDED FRONT IS
ANALYZED NWD GENERALLY OVER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ADIRONDACKS THEN WWD
TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW OVER NERN CORNER OF LK ONT. OCCLUDED FRONT
SHOULD MOVE LITTLE FOR ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
EWD-MOVING/80-90 NM WIDE CLEAR SLOT NOW EVIDENT FROM SERN VT/SWRN NH
TO NERN PA. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE
QUICKLY -- ESPECIALLY E OF OCCLUDED FRONT WHERE SFC THETAE IS HIGHER
-- THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING BECAUSE OF SFC INSOLATION UNDER THAT
AREA OF CLEARING. MEANWHILE...CORRIDOR OF STG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
EVIDENT IN EXPANDING AND INITIALLY ELEVATED AREA OF CONVECTION AND
COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STEEPENED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT -- E.G. 500 MB TEMPS -20 TO -21 C PER 12Z BUF
RAOB -- JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WRN NY. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SFC TEMPS LOWER-MID 70S WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE ALL BUT TRIVIAL AMOUNTS OF SBCINH OVER AREA.
MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE QUICKLY AFTER 15Z AS
SFC-500 MB MEAN LAPSE RATE STEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. STRONGEST
MID-UPPER WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE NOT PROGGED TO CROSS THIS
AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME IN SUPPORT OF
ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.
</pre>

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[Joe-Nathan]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
818 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2009

0818 AM HEAVY RAIN
CROWLEY 07/07/2009 M4.20 INCH ACADIA LA
CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS 4.2 INCHES OF RAINFALL

[Joe-Nathan]

And it is still RAINING!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
0539 AM CDT TUE JULY 7 2009


..RECORD DAILY RAINFALL SET AT LAFAYETTE
A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 2.85 INCHES WAS SET AT LAFAYETTE TODAY...JULY 7.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.41 INCHES SET IN 1954.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CODINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN DAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 241 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL DAY COUNTY...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WEBSTER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL WESTERN GRANT COUNTY AT 300 PM CDT...
RURAL NORTHERN CODINGTON COUNTY AT 300 PM CDT...

THIS WARNING INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 191 AND 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
257 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN HAMLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 256 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLOW LAKE...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF
CLARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WILLOW LAKE AROUND 310 PM CDT...
MAYFIELD COLONY AROUND 320 PM CDT...
VIENNA AROUND 325 PM CDT...
BRYANT AROUND 335 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BROOKINGS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEASTERN KINGSBURY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF BADGER...OR 21 MILES WEST OF
ESTELLINE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BADGER AROUND 355 PM CDT...
HETLAND AROUND 405 PM CDT...
ARLINGTON AROUND 415 PM CDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1134 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

* AT 1132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
ROCHELLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTH OF PORT CHESTER BY 1140 PM...
SANDS POINT AND RYE BY 1145 PM...
GLEN COVE AND PORT WASHINGTON BY 1150 PM...
BAYVILLE BY 1155 PM...
OYSTER BAY...SYOSSET...BROOKVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTH OF HICKSVILLE
BY MIDNIGHT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
SLOW MOVING UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD
WEDNESDAY AS A HEALTHY MID-LVL JET STREAK TRANSLATES FROM NRN CA TO
THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LEE LOW OVER NERN WY WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL SD AND INTO ERN ND DURING THE
LATE AFTN/NIGHT. A WRMFNT WILL LIFT NWD FROM THE CORN BELT TO A SRN
MN AND SRN ND LINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SELY LLVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
PRESSURES FALL OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ADVECT SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WWD INTO ERN MT/NERN WY
AND LWR/MID 60S ACROSS NEB/SD AND MOST OF ND. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING WITH MLCAPES
RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG IN ERN PARTS OF MT/WY TO WELL OVER 2500 J/KG
ON THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN CAPPED... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS AS H7 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11-12 DEG C OVER ERN
WY...SD AND NEB.

AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD...UPSLOPE FLOW IN
MT...WY AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION WILL DEEPEN AND HIGH-BASED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MID-AFTN. AS THE ACTIVITY
PROGRESSES ONTO THE PLAINS...THEY WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TAP
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR INITIAL STORMS TO BE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN ND AND CNTRL/WRN SD.


ISOLD TSTMS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
CAP/INVOF WRMFNT SEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL IA. HERE...NWLY BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES...EVENING STORMS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A QLCS /EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND ROTATING STORMS/ OVER
THE WRN DKTS...WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS
/PENDING CAPPING CONCERNS/. APPROACH OF 60-70 KT WSW MID-LVL
FLOW...RETURN OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING/ SUSTAINED LLVL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THREATS FOR SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS AT
LEAST SRN ND AND NRN/CNTRL SD WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
TURN ESE AND MOVE INTO NWRN IA/WRN MN BY 12Z THU. DMGG WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED A
MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ONCE EFFECTS OF MORNING CONVECTION ON
MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION ARE BETTER KNOWN.

...SERN STATES...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN STATES UPR TROUGH WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A
MODEST IMPULSE DIGS SEWD FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SERN STATES.
THIS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER ERN AL/WRN GA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOVING NEWD ALONG A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SC CST
BY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TOWARD THE NRN GULF CST IN
WAKE OF THE LOW. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
STEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG. MID-LVL FLOW ALONG BASE OF THE IMPULSE WILL LIKELY
BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. MOREOVER...DRIER MID-LVL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. UPSHOT WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR
TSTMS...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS...GIVING DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.

FARTHER S...ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO EWD ACROSS NRN FL. FLOW THIS
FAR S WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN FARTHER N...SO ONLY ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 07/08/2009
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