8/09/09- 8/12/09 Severe weather thread tornado warning N.O

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1008 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1007 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR MYRTLE GROVE...
OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY MARSHY AREAS OF
THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1105 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BLACK HAWK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
EASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRUNDY CENTER...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WATERLOO...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REINBECK...
HUDSON...
WATERLOO...
EVANSDALE...
RAYMOND...
ELK RUN HEIGHTS...
GILBERTVILLE...
LA PORTE CITY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 57 AND 73.

THIS TORNADO WARNING IS AN UPGRADE TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE WARNED AREA.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WELLSVILLE...
EAST CENTRAL CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RUSHFORD...
OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLEAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BELFAST BY 220 PM EDT...
ALFRED BY 245 PM EDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JOHNSONBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ST. MARYS AROUND 420 PM EDT...
FORCE AROUND 445 PM EDT...
MEDIX RUN AND BENEZETTE AROUND 450 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219 NEAR
RIDGWAY...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
511 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ALCONA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
ALPENA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE TOWN OF HUBBARD LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRUCE...
OSSINEKE...
NEGWEGON STATE PARK...
BLACK RIVER...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 453 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORCE...OR
11 MILES SOUTH OF ST. MARYS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PARKER DAM STATE PARK...MEDIX RUN AND S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK AROUND
505 PM EDT...
CLEARFIELD AROUND 525 PM EDT...
LECONTES MILLS AROUND 530 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND 122.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 322 NEAR
CLEARFIELD...STATE ROAD 153...STATE ROAD 255.

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PARKER DAM
STATE PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF CLEARFIELD...MOVING SOUTH AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LECONTES MILLS AROUND 545 PM EDT...
CLEARFIELD...HYDE AND CURWENSVILLE AROUND 550 PM EDT...
WOODLAND AROUND 555 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 133. THIS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 153.

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 900 AM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0692_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009


VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE NERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
REGIME OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE ACCELERATING EWD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM...A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TRAILING EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...

PRE-FRONTAL TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ. HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS OF RESIDUAL CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PREFERRED ZONE OF INITIATION MAY BE
DISPLACED TO THE S OF COLD FRONT /AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM NOCTURNAL TSTMS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-75
F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. BELT OF
MODEST /30-40 KT/ WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL ATTEND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION WITH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING DEEP WLY FLOW
WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN SETUP WILL FAVOR STORM
MODES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...FEATURING EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S/ WILL BE
MAINTAINED N OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND ERN
EXTENSION OF EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO
2000-2500 J/KG OVER KS. THE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING /BOTH AUGMENTED BY PASSAGE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE/
ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ERN CO INTO KS.

REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG TRAILING FRINGE OF HIGHER MOMENTUM
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACCOMPANYING GREAT LAKES IMPULSE. WHEN
COUPLED WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 08/10/2009


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0693_radar_big.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

look what I just saw


<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/H4a9ZWSe3Bk&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b&hd=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/H4a9ZWSe3Bk&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b&hd=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0693_radar_big.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OLATHE KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0694_radar_big.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
424 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CORTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN TOMPKINS COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GROTON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FREEVILLE BY 435 PM EDT...
DRYDEN BY 440 PM EDT...
SOUTH CORTLAND BY 445 PM EDT...
VIRGIL BY 455 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

[Joe-Nathan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
443 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEADVILLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TITUSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772. WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4162 7960 4161 7962 4161 7981 4158 7986
4149 7999 4150 8021 4168 8020 4169 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 273DEG 27KT 4159 8009

$$
ASTIFAN

[ROLLTIDE]

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
548 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
WESTERN GALLATIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
SWITZERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOOREFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VEVAY...

IN ADDITION...MOUNT STERLING...GHENT...MARKLAND AND US ROUTE 42 AT
STATE ROUTE 184 ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

[ROLLTIDE]

SPC AC 111630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO SERN
CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM INDIANA ACROSS OH INTO PA
AND SRN NY...

...SRN PLAINS INTO SERN CO...
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ACROSS OK AND EXTREME NRN TX HAVE GENERATED A SERIES OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A COMPOSITE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN TX AND EAST CENTRAL NM. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/SRN OK AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL TX
IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH FURTHER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NEW
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN NM AND SERN CO
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. NWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS 20-30 KT WILL RESULT IN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD. SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S COUPLED
WITH AREAS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING ATTM OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL AND FROM ERN TN INTO SWRN
VA...WITH THE ERN MOST BAND SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLING
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL HEATING COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. 25-35 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP/PERSIST...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS.

...INDIANA ACROSS OH INTO SRN NY AND PA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN TWO BANDS...ONE ACROSS THE EXTREME
NRN PARTS OF INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OH NEAR THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT...AND A SECOND BAND FROM NERN OH INTO SWRN NY TO THE LEE OF
LAKE ERIE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 COUPLED WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500 J/KG EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS SUPPORT MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AT BEST IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...A
STRONG 80-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA AND
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND AID POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS. STRONGER
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL.

...NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM WRN ME ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF NH AND VT...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO DIABATIC
HEATING AND A WEAKENING CAP. A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.

..MID ATLANTIC CST TO CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS...
DEEP WLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH E OF THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS. THAT FEATURE...AND POSSIBLY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IN
PA/NJ...MAY FOCUS SCTD STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR AFTN/EVE STORMS.
AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SOME STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY
WINDS. BUT MODEST DEEP SHEAR AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
SVR POTENTIAL.

..WEISS/GARNER.. 08/11/2009

</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
INDIANA/OH TO WESTERN/NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHWEST NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111639Z - 111845Z

STRONGER TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
HAIL FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA/OH TO
WESTERN/NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHWEST NY. THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING/ROUGHLY WSW-ENE
FRONT CURRENTLY FROM FAR NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AT MIDDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY...WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED/STRONG...MIGRATORY POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH/ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70-90 KT UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPSWING IN TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL...STORM
VIGOR/ORGANIZATION MAY BE TEMPERED BY THE MODEST NATURE OF THE LAPSE
RATES/LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY FLOW...BUT NEVERTHELESS A
MOIST/HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1867.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC AND
ADJACENT WV/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111703Z - 111830Z

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC...AND
PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SC/WV. IF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

BENEATH MODEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AMPLIFYING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH...BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER
OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN OVER THE
PAST HOUR. WHILE 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE/INCREASING SURFACE COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT
UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...GIVEN A
WELL-HEATED/MOIST AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS CREST INTO
VA/NC. WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1868.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC/SC AND SOUTHEAST
GA/SOUTHEAST VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121525Z - 121730Z

DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST GA/FAR SOUTHEAST VA. A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH MAY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE FRONT/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM EASTERN GA TO THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC. THE REGION IS ON
THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS /30 METERS AT 12Z/ AHEAD
OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS STRONG HEATING /90F AND ABOVE/ CONTINUES TO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AREAS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIRMASS WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO QUICKLY WANING SURFACE
CINH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY PER MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM
CHARLESTON NC/MOREHEAD CITY NC. ACCORDINGLY...GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/VIGOR THROUGH EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONT AS WELL AS ANY SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COOL /NW/ SIDE OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...MODEST MID TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS /25-35 KT ABOVE 3 KM/ AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z GSO OBSERVED RAOB
AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM COLUMBIA SC/RALEIGH...WOULD
SUPPORT SOME RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD
BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 08/12/2009


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1871.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009


AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST OH AND WESTERN/CENTRAL PA INTO
WV/WESTERN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121636Z - 121800Z

THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OH AND WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
INTO WV/WESTERN MD. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES BENEATH
THE UPPER COLD POCKET /-12 TO -13C AT 500 MB PER PITTSBURGH AND
WILMINGTON OH 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS/ MAY SUPPORT SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL TO AROUND SEVERE LEVELS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE EPISODIC SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 08/12/2009


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1872.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0700_radar_big.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SALTER
PATH...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SALTER PATH BY 405 PM EDT...
PINE KNOLL SHORES BY 415 PM EDT...
WILDWOOD BY 420 PM EDT...
ATLANTIC BEACH BY 425 PM EDT...
MOREHEAD CITY BY 430 PM EDT...
NORTH RIVER AND HARLOWE BY 445 PM EDT...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
517 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO NORTH OF AUBURNDALE. NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
AUBURNDALE.
LAKE ALFRED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE! IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

[virgo10]

tornado warning for: central polk county in Florida.
Until 530 pm edt
At 515 pm edt, national weather service doppler radar indicated a tornado north of auburndale. Nearly stationary.
The tornado will be near, auburndale. Lake alfred.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
If you are in the path of the tornado go to a small interior room in a strong and well constructed building. Cars and mobile homes are not safe! if no shelter is available, lie flat in a ditch or culvert and cover your head with your hands.
To report severe weather to the national weather service please call 813-645-2323.

No tornadoes here but one incredibly close clap of thunder and some gusty winds. Someone in Winter Haven got a photo of what may have been a funnel but more likely a microburst.

Exciting stuff! /Wow

[ROLLTIDE]

No tornadoes here but one incredibly close clap of thunder and some gusty winds. Someone in Winter Haven got a photo of what may have been a funnel but more likely a microburst.

Exciting stuff! /Wow

Or Scud /yeathat

[virgo10]

3 Ssw Auburndale [Polk Co, FL] emergency mngr reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:33 PM EDT -- emergency management http://tinyurl.com/oz88le

Wicked storm! Didn't see any funnel activity here but noted two lightning strikes within a half mile of my house.