Brett Adair
03-27-2005, 11:34 PM
Well....as many of you know this was definately a bust across the southland with the MDT risk areas. Only two confirmed tornadoes in this event so far, one of which struck near Brookhaven, MS late yesterday evening and then another that struck just SW of Montgomery, AL late this afternoon. That storm only produced minor damage.
There were 8 PDS tornado watches this week across our region and every single one of them busted except for the one PDS that was up for Southern GA during the day on Tuesday.
Problems with transporting the severe weather northward...well here they are.
1) First and foremost the LLJ strength, moisture advection, and warm frontal and SFC low positioning. Especially yesterday this was effected across central AL since the Warm frontal boundary hung out near Montgomery overnight when the best upper level diffluence came across the region. Even there, no tornadoes were really problematic.
2) The cap strength was too weak. The storms all broke out at one time which allowed for most of the storms to go outflow dominant considering all the inflow was blocked off by the convective formation in the Gulf. This allowed for the main areas of shear/rotation to remain offshore in most cases.
3) Low placement along with warm frontal association. For deep south severe weather episodes across MS/AL/GA, I love to see a low sitting over NW TN/Bootheel of MO/or WRN KY for the best tornadic outbreaks. We then have perfect moisture/theta-e advection along with a nicely curved hodograph.
4) Today storms were sheared apart from the 500-850 hPa unidirectional flow. The wind fields were too strong for storms to sustain updrafts causing them to mostly split or fall apart. BRN numbers of 200+ along with deep layer of 100+kts came across as the upper support approached and the PVA fired storms ahead of the dry slot. Killed any hailers and tornadoes.
5) The most important problem today was SUNSHINE! Instability values were KILLED as the pronounced dry slot that was projected actually filled in with CU rapidly. This allowed for slow destabalization to take place instead of the strong, rapid destabalization that was expected when the sun peaked through. This also allowed the cap to remain weaker and allowed for the showers to keep a little cool air around 700-800hPa which we dont like to see in severe weather events.
The SPC did an AWFUL job keeping the MDT risk across AL this afternoon. Especially at the 1630 and 2000z outlooks. The number of PDS watches that have been issued area already too many. This will kill the credibility of local meteorologist and also the pros on a national level if this busting process continues. The next weather event pegged for WED/THURS will be worse IMO just due to the placement of the SFC features and I believe that there will be alot of people who wont listen due to the problems with the past two systems. The locals here have been talking....and are not happy with the forecasting that the NWS/SPC/Media and everyone else has been doing.
In other words.....they need to kick it up a notch.
To some of the SPC forecasters...
:fired:
There were 8 PDS tornado watches this week across our region and every single one of them busted except for the one PDS that was up for Southern GA during the day on Tuesday.
Problems with transporting the severe weather northward...well here they are.
1) First and foremost the LLJ strength, moisture advection, and warm frontal and SFC low positioning. Especially yesterday this was effected across central AL since the Warm frontal boundary hung out near Montgomery overnight when the best upper level diffluence came across the region. Even there, no tornadoes were really problematic.
2) The cap strength was too weak. The storms all broke out at one time which allowed for most of the storms to go outflow dominant considering all the inflow was blocked off by the convective formation in the Gulf. This allowed for the main areas of shear/rotation to remain offshore in most cases.
3) Low placement along with warm frontal association. For deep south severe weather episodes across MS/AL/GA, I love to see a low sitting over NW TN/Bootheel of MO/or WRN KY for the best tornadic outbreaks. We then have perfect moisture/theta-e advection along with a nicely curved hodograph.
4) Today storms were sheared apart from the 500-850 hPa unidirectional flow. The wind fields were too strong for storms to sustain updrafts causing them to mostly split or fall apart. BRN numbers of 200+ along with deep layer of 100+kts came across as the upper support approached and the PVA fired storms ahead of the dry slot. Killed any hailers and tornadoes.
5) The most important problem today was SUNSHINE! Instability values were KILLED as the pronounced dry slot that was projected actually filled in with CU rapidly. This allowed for slow destabalization to take place instead of the strong, rapid destabalization that was expected when the sun peaked through. This also allowed the cap to remain weaker and allowed for the showers to keep a little cool air around 700-800hPa which we dont like to see in severe weather events.
The SPC did an AWFUL job keeping the MDT risk across AL this afternoon. Especially at the 1630 and 2000z outlooks. The number of PDS watches that have been issued area already too many. This will kill the credibility of local meteorologist and also the pros on a national level if this busting process continues. The next weather event pegged for WED/THURS will be worse IMO just due to the placement of the SFC features and I believe that there will be alot of people who wont listen due to the problems with the past two systems. The locals here have been talking....and are not happy with the forecasting that the NWS/SPC/Media and everyone else has been doing.
In other words.....they need to kick it up a notch.
To some of the SPC forecasters...
:fired: