Deep South Snow Storm 12/4/09-12/5/09 [Archive]

ROLLTIDE

11-23-2009, 10:40 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_204s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_216s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_228s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_240s.gif

firemedic354

11-23-2009, 09:38 PM

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_0_prec_204.gif

Stormlover

11-24-2009, 12:18 AM

About a week away:
http://i168.photobucket.com/albums/u163/nexrad45/avn_240_850.gif

http://i168.photobucket.com/albums/u163/nexrad45/avn_300_850.gif
first weekend of Dec...brrrr

Stormlover

11-24-2009, 12:24 AM

take a look at this...could be an early surprise for parts of the south in the first week of dec...at any rate it will be cold
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

ROLLTIDE

11-24-2009, 05:53 AM

Huntsville NWS

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE WRN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS) DURING THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EWRD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUN...AND GIVE RISE TO SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS
IN THE NW GOM BY MONDAY. THE GOM SOLN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOLN) IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME...AND
IS BACKED UP BY THE ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF) AND A CLUSTERING OF GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) ENSEMBLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLE) MEMBERS.
THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
AVERAGING OF SOLNS AT THIS POINT BRINGS IT ON A PATH SOMEWHERE BTWN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=BTWN)
LITTLE ROCK AND HUNTSVILLE...A BIG SPREAD I KNOW...BUT THIS IS STILL
SEVEN DAYS OUT. RESULTING WX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WX) IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/WIND
MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY. A LITTLE WRAPAROUND FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

ROLLTIDE

11-24-2009, 08:34 AM

Stormlover

11-24-2009, 10:09 AM

look at the cold come in a week from now:
http://www.wdef.com/weather/Storm%20Team%2012%20Seven%20Day%20Temperature%20Fo recast.gif

Stormlover

11-24-2009, 10:17 AM

raw GFS data shows about an inch of snowfall at Huntsville next Tuesday morning
http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Khsv.txt

Stormlover

11-24-2009, 10:22 AM

heavy snow into north alabama next tuesday?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_180s.gif

Stormlover

11-24-2009, 08:03 PM

5-10 day snowfall
http://pro.accuweather.com/adc_images2/english/forecast/snow/400x300/us__120240snow.gif

dkmac

11-25-2009, 06:37 AM

From this mornings N.O. NWS forecast discussion:

THE
LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY COLD AIR AND SOME MIX OF
PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST
PORTION OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION IS KNOWN
ON THIS SYSTEM TO CONFIRM ITS SEVERE OR WINTER WX POTENTIAL AND
THESE VARIABLES WILL BE IRONED OUT AS MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
EVALUTATED.

Stormlover

11-25-2009, 12:18 PM

3 month outlook has cooler than normal temps down south
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

ROLLTIDE

11-30-2009, 08:34 AM

ROLLTIDE

11-30-2009, 05:49 PM

Stormlover

11-30-2009, 11:47 PM

From HSV:

MUCH FURTHER OUT...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A
CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE
CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
BUILD WELL NWRD THROUGH ALASKA...RESULTING IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE REX
BLOCK IN THE PACIFIC...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ARCTIC AIR
SPILLING INTO CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. I AM MENTIONING THIS
BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND IS BACKED UP BY TELECONNECTIONS. FOR NOW...JUST
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

Joe-Nathan

12-01-2009, 07:55 AM

Local Met here in Lafayette hinted at the model data indicating the possibility of frozen precip for our area during the Friday evening to Saturday morning time frame. It all depends on if the low develops and how far south if passes over our area.

I will be containing my excitement until Friday afternoon.

jbdigitalphoto

12-01-2009, 08:22 AM

Local Met here in Lafayette hinted at the model data indicating the possibility of frozen precip for our area during the Friday evening to Saturday morning time frame. It all depends on if the low develops and how far south if passes over our area.

I will be containing my excitement until Friday afternoon.

Our local met here in the Upstate of SC also hinted at the same possibility. He also made the statement that the patterns were setting up for what he believed to be an unusually hard winter. I was shocked to hear him make both these statements as he always reports very cautiously. /Wow

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 08:53 AM

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 08:54 AM

Could it time for a snow chase ? Look for possible live streaming tonight of the severe weather then snow ??????

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 08:57 AM

Check this out

http://coolwx.com/ptype/

Joe-Nathan

12-01-2009, 09:06 AM

Holy Crap, it looks like we are in for a colder December!!

But I revert back to my previous statement...

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 09:08 AM

KMOB

THERE MAY BE BRIEF WINDOW
FOR OCCURRENCE OF A BRIEF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE CONTINUITY ON THIS
BEFORE GETTING TOO GUNG HO IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES
ON.

Joe-Nathan

12-01-2009, 09:11 AM

I guess those "Hot-Lanta" chasers (including you Roll) are going to be busy with the severe weather tomorrow and snow this weekend....

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 09:52 AM

Joe Bastardi video update

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=19668940001

Joe-Nathan

12-01-2009, 10:03 AM

Joe Bastardi video update

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=19668940001

You Sir are making it very hard for me to maintain my previous, previous, previous statement...

Stormlover

12-01-2009, 11:06 AM

southern snow?
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/community/2009/gfs1201a.png

Stormlover

12-01-2009, 11:23 AM

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2009/snow212109.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 02:20 PM

12z snowfall forecst though friday afternoon

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_3HR-NEW-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 03:07 PM

Henry Margusity

GFS 12z Run Slightly East, but that's Normal Cha-Cha-Cha

POSSIBLE SNOW FROM TEXAS TO NEW ENGLAND WITH TRAILING SYSTEM

I have to admit, this is the time I hate the most when the models suck you into a great solution then the play the cha-cha-cha of storm positions and snow amounts. The 6z GFS has a great snowstorm from Texas to New England while the 12z run has backed off some, but it still has snow from Texas to New England. Snow in Houston is very rare this time of the year, but it does happen and I believe it just happened last Dec. 10. As far as I am concerned, I think a storm is coming and the most likely outcome will be a narrow band of snow coming out of the Texas that weakens across the South but picks up and widens in coverage as it comes northeast from the western Carolinas to New England. The I-95 corridor will be a tricky forecast becuase if the cold gets held up in the Appalachians, it will be rain perhaps mixed with some wet snow.

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 04:28 PM

ROLLTIDE

12-01-2009, 05:12 PM

18Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif

Stormlover

12-01-2009, 11:08 PM

how about it Mobile and Louisiana folks
http://pro.accuweather.com/adc_images2/english/forecast/snow/400x300/us__00120snow.gif

Joe-Nathan

12-02-2009, 12:38 AM

This is going to mess up my duck huntin on Saturday.

If we get accumilating sneaux Friday night, it means I will have to take the kids out the levee to go dinner tray sliding.

Now Sunday will be a killer duck huntin morning.

But I hope we get a lot of sneaux!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Local mets are stating that this could be the first time in recorded weather history that SW LA has received sneaux two years in a row during early December.

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 01:19 AM

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/srh3.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 06:36 AM

Jackson , MS

LONG TERM…WHAT I HAD FEARED LAST NIGHT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE OUTLYING MODEL…WHICH WAS DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA…IS NOT THE OUTLIER ANYMORE. THE GFS…IS NOW LEADING THE
WAY AND HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM AND EURO. 8 OF 12 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AND SNOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF ARE RANGING FROM 40-60%. SUCH SUPPORT
HAS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND THE RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE FRI NIGHT FORECAST WRT POPS AND PRECIP TYPE BECOMING AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW.
ONE MAY BE ASKING…WHAT HAS CHANGED TO NOW INCLUDE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST? MAINLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER SUPPORT FROM MORE
MODELS. FORECAST LEADING INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT HAS GENERALLY ALWAYS
PORTRAYED SOME SORT OF S/W MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAY
TROUGH. HOWEVER…THE TREND LAST NIGHT WAS FOR THE S/W TO BE
STRONGER. WITH THAT…THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUID WAS
GENERALLY DRY AND ONLY HAD CLOUDS WITH THAT TROUGH PASSAGE. THE GFS
WAS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SNOW ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SINCE LAST NIGHT…MUCH MORE SUPPORT HAS COME IN
FROM VARIOUS GUID AND BASICALLY THERE HAS BEEN A 180 SWITCH AND NOT
THE OUTLYING SOLUTION IS THE DRIER VERSION.
AS FOR SOME OF THE DETAILS…THE S/W IN QUESTION WILL BE RATHER
POTENT AND PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
HELPING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ACROSS THE N GULF. IT WILL BE THIS SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL GIVE THE S/W THE MOISTURE TAP TO DEVELOP
PRECIP ABOVE THE COLD AIRMASS. I WILL SAY…THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS SOME 60-72 HRS OUT AND
ANYTIME WE ARE DEALING WITH WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR AREA…THINGS OFTEN
CHANGE. THE GENERAL SETUP FOR THIS WINTRY POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT IS
QUITE FAVORABLE AS WE WILL SEE CAA ONGOING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SFC PRESSURES RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE B/C IT
PROVIDES MOISTURE. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WILL THE COLDER AIR
MOVING SOUTHWARD BE TOO DRY AND EVAPORATE ALL OF THE FALLING PRECIP.
THAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS. ADDITIONALLY…THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL NOT BE VERY COLD AND HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER THICKENS FASTER AND VIRGA DEVELOPS
EARLIER THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND MORE
NEAR 40 DEGREES. WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS NOT ALREADY IN PLACE…WE
WILL NEED OTHER MEANS TO GENERATE SNOW. THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM AS DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE STRONG S/W WILL PROVIDE THAT AS
STRONG ASCENT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ALOFT WHICH WILL EVAPORATE AND
COOL ANY LAYER THAT IS ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO…THIS ALL LOOKS TO COME
TOGETHER FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL
MAKE IT EASIER TO DROP TEMPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
LIGHT SNOW. IT APPEARS AS MOISTURE VALUES…VERTICAL MOTION AND
DURATION WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1/4 INCH TO
POSSIBLY 1 INCH. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH TEMPS 31-34
DEGREES…SIMILAR TO PREV SNOW EVENTS OVER THE PAST TWO WINTER
SEASONS. HOWEVER…THOSE EVENTS HAD MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH WHICH RESULTED IN MORE ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. THIS LOOKS TO
BE MUCH LIGHTER AT THIS POINT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON GRASSY SFC`S
OR ELEVATED SFC`S AND BE 1 INCH OR LESS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS S/W FEATURE…SAT-SUN LOOK TO BE QUIET.
HOWEVER…THAT MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG AS THE PATTERN WILL BE MORE OF
FAST SW ALOFT WHICH OFTEN MAKES FOR QUICK TRANSITIONS AND A OVERALL
WETTER PATTERN. WHILE DETAILS WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO GET
DOWN…FOLLOWING THE GENERALITIES OF THE GUID SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO
GO FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. DECENT PRECIP CHANCES AND A WARMING
TREND LOOK TO BE IN STORE AND GUID VALUES WERE ACCEPTED.
AS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND WEATHER FOR FRI-SAT…I DID LOWER HIGHS ON FRI
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLE MOS
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. I DID LOWER POPS ON FRI AS I FEEL THE ON SET
OF ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE LATE AND MAINLY IN THE FRI NIGHT PERIOD.
FOR FRI NIGHT…I LOWERED LOWS TO GET INTO THAT 31-34 RANGE WHICH
COVERS THE WET BULB EFFECT AND FOLLOWS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS
BEEN LOWER THAN THE OPS GUID FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. POPS WERE TOUGH
AS MY INTUITION WOULD BE TO LOWER POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER…ALL THE DATA I HAVE LOOKED SAYS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
LATEST GUID POPS AS MEASURING JUST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW…LIGHT SNOW WORDING FITS THE
SITUATION AS ANY SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. /CME/
&&

dkmac

12-02-2009, 06:43 AM

N.O. NWS:

.LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERTAINS TO WINTRY
PRECIP. GFS HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF STILL HAS
NOT COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION BUT MODELS DO AGREE THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT BTR AND MCB SHOW SATURATION IN THE -10
TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL AS COLUMN TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
FROM AROUND 1500KFT AND UPWARDS AFTER 06Z SAT. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING
WOULD PRODUCE STRICTLY SNOW. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
-SN TO THE FORECAST FROM BTR TO POPLARVILLE AND NORTHWARD. LATEST
MEX CAME IN AT 70PCT AND PREVIOUS RUN HAD MID 40S. B/C OF SUCH A BIG
CHANGE...DECIDED TO STAY ON THE LOW SIDED OF GUIDANCE AT 40PCT WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS EVENT. LAST YEAR/S SNOW ON DEC 11TH WAS THE EARLIEST ON
RECORD...SO CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW
DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 06:49 AM

Mobile , NWS

FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEDIUM%20RANGE)
GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY STUFF OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) WILL FORM
UP AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) TROF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROF) WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND BRING A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...WELL NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBFREEZING DEEP MOIST COLUMN STARTING OUT NEAR H95
MB (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MB)...WITH MORE OF SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES/DRIER AIR
NOTED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR FREEZING...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF A
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. WE HAVE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST
GRIDDED WEATHER FORECASTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM RICHTON MISSISSIPPI TO CHATOM...MONROEVILLE...TO
BRANTLEY ALABAMA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IT IS
STILL EARLY TO GET OVERLY SPECIFIC IN THIS DEPARTMENT. LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS) MOS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOS) POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HAS COME IN WITH CATEGORICAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CATEGORICAL)
NUMBERS (~80%) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ENTIRE AREA. KIND OF ROBUST FOR
THREE DAYS OUT...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOWER ENSEMBLE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ENSEMBLE) MEAN (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MEAN) FOR POP (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POP)
THEN. COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND OUT OF THE
LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

satx_pilot

12-02-2009, 09:22 AM

San Antonio, Texas

...SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A COLD RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ONLY SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CURRENTLY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR AHARD FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE...OR YOUR PREFERRED WEATHER INFORMATION SOURCE FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 09:45 AM

Chances for some snow in the deep south Friday night/Saturday seems to be on the increase. Stay tuned.

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 09:50 AM

Joe-Nathan

12-02-2009, 10:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
546 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.
.
.

LONG TERM...WHAT I HAD FEARED LAST NIGHT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE OUTLYING MODEL...WHICH WAS DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA...IS NOT THE OUTLIER ANYMORE. THE GFS...IS NOW LEADING THE
WAY AND HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM AND EURO. 8 OF 12 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AND SNOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF ARE RANGING FROM 40-60%. SUCH SUPPORT
HAS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND THE RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE FRI NIGHT FORECAST WRT POPS AND PRECIP TYPE BECOMING AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW.

ONE MAY BE ASKING...WHAT HAS CHANGED TO NOW INCLUDE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST? MAINLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER SUPPORT FROM MORE
MODELS. FORECAST LEADING INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT HAS GENERALLY ALWAYS
PORTRAYED SOME SORT OF S/W MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAY
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE TREND LAST NIGHT WAS FOR THE S/W TO BE
STRONGER. WITH THAT...THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUID WAS
GENERALLY DRY AND ONLY HAD CLOUDS WITH THAT TROUGH PASSAGE. THE GFS
WAS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SNOW ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SINCE LAST NIGHT...MUCH MORE SUPPORT HAS COME IN
FROM VARIOUS GUID AND BASICALLY THERE HAS BEEN A 180 SWITCH AND NOT
THE OUTLYING SOLUTION IS THE DRIER VERSION.

AS FOR SOME OF THE DETAILS...THE S/W IN QUESTION WILL BE RATHER
POTENT AND PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
HELPING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ACROSS THE N GULF. IT WILL BE THIS SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL GIVE THE S/W THE MOISTURE TAP TO DEVELOP
PRECIP ABOVE THE COLD AIRMASS. I WILL SAY...THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS SOME 60-72 HRS OUT AND
ANYTIME WE ARE DEALING WITH WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR AREA...THINGS OFTEN
CHANGE. THE GENERAL SETUP FOR THIS WINTRY POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT IS
QUITE FAVORABLE AS WE WILL SEE CAA ONGOING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SFC PRESSURES RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE B/C IT
PROVIDES MOISTURE. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WILL THE COLDER AIR
MOVING SOUTHWARD BE TOO DRY AND EVAPORATE ALL OF THE FALLING PRECIP.
THAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL NOT BE VERY COLD AND HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER THICKENS FASTER AND VIRGA DEVELOPS
EARLIER THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND MORE
NEAR 40 DEGREES. WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WE
WILL NEED OTHER MEANS TO GENERATE SNOW. THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM AS DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE STRONG S/W WILL PROVIDE THAT AS
STRONG ASCENT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ALOFT WHICH WILL EVAPORATE AND
COOL ANY LAYER THAT IS ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO...THIS ALL LOOKS TO COME
TOGETHER FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL
MAKE IT EASIER TO DROP TEMPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
LIGHT SNOW. IT APPEARS AS MOISTURE VALUES...VERTICAL MOTION AND
DURATION WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1/4 INCH TO
POSSIBLY 1 INCH. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH TEMPS 31-34
DEGREES...SIMILAR TO PREV SNOW EVENTS OVER THE PAST TWO WINTER
SEASONS. HOWEVER...THOSE EVENTS HAD MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH WHICH RESULTED IN MORE ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. THIS LOOKS TO
BE MUCH LIGHTER AT THIS POINT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON GRASSY SFC'S
OR ELEVATED SFC'S AND BE 1 INCH OR LESS.

Windwatcher

12-02-2009, 10:23 AM

Explain! Are we gonna get snow in SE Louisiana?

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 11:40 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image3.gif

Windwatcher

12-02-2009, 11:48 AM

Thanks, Pumpkin!

Joe-Nathan

12-02-2009, 11:50 AM

FROM DAVE BAKER W/ KATC TV 3

Friday night is when things get interesting. Forecast models are hinting at some wintry mix over the Acadiana area. An upper level system will roll out of the Rockies into Texas on Friday afternoon. At the same time very cold air will be in place. Temperatures in the column of air will be below freezing except for the very bottom layer, here on the ground. With this situation, snowfall could be forecast over Texas with some minor accumulations between Dallas and Houston. When the system reaches the mid part of Louisiana, a larger part of that column of air at the surface will remain above freezing, about the bottom 3000 feet. Therefore we could see some snow fall, but it wouldn’t accumulate because the temperatures would be too warm at the ground. If that freezing level were to drop to about 1000 feet, then maybe some minor accumulation on grassy surfaces. I expect a mix of light rain with some snow with no accumulation Friday night. The precipitation time frame will be quick with skies clearing into Saturday morning.

We’ll be watching the changing models very closely. If we see accumulation it will be the earliest on record for Acadiana. The previous record was December 11, 2008…last year. Also keep in mind that we have never seen accumulating snow in succeeding years. We’ll see.

66372_G

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Written by Dave Baker

December 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 11:51 AM

Morning NWS breakdown

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
IN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH ALABAMA MORE DEPENDENT ON SHORT WAVE
TROF. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COLD AIR ADVECTION MIGHT NOT
BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH ALABAMA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT OVER NORTH ALABAMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL COOL
DOWN ENOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
BECOME ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...WITH A MIXTURE AS FAR
SOUTH AS MONTGOMERY AND AUBURN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY FALL MUCH BELOW 32
DEGREES...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE-
INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST
ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

From Hun:

ONE THING OF INTEREST
THOUGH THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT IS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN GULF...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A
CONSISTENT TREND NOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WANT TO TAKE THIS NEXT LOW ON MORE OF AN EWD TRACK
INTO SAT...BEFORE TAKING IT NEWD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC SUN. THE
MODELS ALSO HINT AT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA AGAIN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. WITH A POLAR AIR MASS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP FROM
LATE FRI NT THROUGH SAT MAY IN FACT TURN OUT TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THICKNESS VALUES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT SEEM TO SUPPORT
THIS THINKING...AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FRI AND SAT...AS THIS NEXT SFC
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

From Nashville:

SGFNT AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THU THROUGH
SAT WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPS DROPPING 34F TO 42F ON SAT. THUS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL GENERATE A LOW IN THE
GULF AND TRACK IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED INTO THE COLD AIR WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW FOR THE SE/E AREAS ON SAT.

From Atlanta:

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER GULF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY...THEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO GA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...STILL PREFER
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF...THAT DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF...AND TRACKS IT UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...
WITH MUCH LESS WEATHER IMPACT HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT...AND PULL
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO WARRANT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
HAS WARMED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS UP...THEY ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE... IF
ADEQUATE MOISTURE CAN BE POOLED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
STILL SUSPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COLDER
AIR... BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FOR NORTH GA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

From GSP:

THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. A POWERFUL JET STREAKS NORTHWARD ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE TROF LATE FRI NIGHT...PROVIDING A LARGE REGION OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z SAT. LIFT DEEPENS ACROSS THE
CWA 15Z-21Z SATURDAY AS H7-H5 FRONTOGENESIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 9Z-12Z SAT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE THAT
A SMALL REGION -EPV MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE H5 TROF SAT AFTERNOON.

IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
P-TYPE FORECAST. USING A BLEND OF SREF...GFS40 LLVL TEMPS...I WILL
FORECAST FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MID TO U30S EAST OF THE
MTNS BY SUNRISE SAT. HEATING AFTER SUNRISE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY
PRECIP...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND ONGOING NORTH SFC WINDS. HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW
TO MID 40S EAST OF THE MTNS. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THE TOP DOWN
METHOD YIELD MAINLY SN ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX IN THE
VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RA ACROSS NE
GA...SC...AND EAST OF I-40 ACROSS NC. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE H5 TROF RIPPLES EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET
IN ELEVATION...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. SAT NIGHT...SKY COVER WILL
DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRESH CAA AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN COLD LOW TEMPS. BY 12Z SUN...TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MID 20S TO 30
DEGREES EAST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS LATE SAT EVENING. DAMP ROADS AND
ONGOING RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLACK ICE SAT NIGHT...PLAN
TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 11:53 AM

SREF PRECIP TYPE

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREF21TYPUS_3z/f60.gif

Animated

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREF21TYPUS_3z/srefloop.html

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 11:55 AM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/SREFPROB_3z/ftyp69.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_3z/ftyp75.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_3z/ftyp81.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 11:58 AM

12Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_072m.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 12:05 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/graphicast/image5.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 12:07 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lix/graphicast/image3.gif

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 02:31 PM

DAY 3...
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL US...
LEADING EDGE OF COLD AND BUT DRY AIRMASS SURGE OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA SPREADS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST ON DAY 3...WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND TRICKY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXPECTED TO CHANNEL MID-LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIA. USED
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/HPC QPFS AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING
DETAILS AND THERMAL PROFILES OF THE ECMWF/NAM TO PROVIDE SOME
DETAIL IN THE MANUAL SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ON DAY 3. THIS ALLOWS FOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN WEST TEXAS TO SQUEEZE OUT THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND STREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AND/OR A BRIEF WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE ALONG/WITHIN THE I-40/I-20 CORRIDOR.

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 02:37 PM

NAM shows 2 to maybe 3 or 4 inches of snowfall in 3 hours here early Sat.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/opsnam/nam.conus.acsnow75.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 03:45 PM

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 04:06 PM

1AM Saturday
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/southmissvly/Wx23_southmissvly.png

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 04:25 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/hun/graphicast/LongTermGraphicast580x500.png

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 04:39 PM

Bham NWS

BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING A NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHORTWAVE) SHOULD BE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH) OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, SOME MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) WILL GET PULLED FROM THE GULF AND BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY IN WHICH THE CONSENSUS SHOWED DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) PROFILES SHOW A WINDOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM ROUGHLY 09Z SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY
LASTING THROUGH 18Z. SO AT THIS POINT I WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A COLD RAIN TO THE SOUTH. SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. NO WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 04:44 PM

18Z Nam makes me want to go to Hatisburge Friday night :)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_slp_066l.gif

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 04:58 PM

18Z GFS heading in the right direction:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_066s.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 05:29 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ewx/graphicast/image1.gif

Joe-Nathan

12-02-2009, 06:10 PM

FROM HEATH MORTON WITH KLFY TV10:

Snow Friday Night?

Believe it or not, we do have a small chance of snow Friday night. The computer models have been showing this for the last several day, but forecasting snow for South Louisiana is anything but easy. We saw snow last December, and it would neat to see it two years in a row and very unusual. Forecasting snow across the Deep South is all about timing. While growing up in North Alabama, I looked forward to snow every winter. There were plenty of chances, but you either had too much moisture and not enough cold air, or enough cold air and not enough moisture. Weathermen missed many snow forecasts back then, and I didn’t like it when I got my hopes up, then nothing happened. It looks as though things might come together late Friday afternoon into Friday night, but many things can change between now and then. The cold air will be rushing south Friday, and it looks as though an area of low pressure is going to form across the Gulf of Mexico in response to a strong upper level trough digging south across Texas. The position of this low over the Gulf is crucial; if it’s too far south, we may not see enough moisture, and if it’s too far north, it may be a little too warm. Right now it looks as though it may be in a good position. There won’t be a lot of moisture to work with, but I think there may be just enough. There should be enough cold air after dark to see a rain/snow mix, and if this system slows up some, it may change to all snow overnight. I think the better chances of all snow will be across the central portions of Louisiana. Alexandria may see an inch or so if everything comes together. We shouldn’t see any problems across Acadiana because the ground temperature will be too warm. All of this will be gone Saturday morning. The chances are slim, but they are there, so if you are a snow fan, then you may have something to look forward to Friday night.
By Heath Morton, December 2, 2009, 12:18 pm o'clock

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 07:08 PM

KMOB

LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
NOON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FAST
MOVING LOW WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FROM 3 AM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT...SO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED UNLESS A VERY NARROW PROLONGED BAND DEVELOPS. /22

satx_pilot

12-02-2009, 07:13 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ewx/graphicast/image1.gif

Thanks Roll!

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 08:50 PM

Kirk Mellish from WSBRadio in ATL

http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_we...model-snow.html (http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_weather_commentary/2009/12/model-snow.html)

Model snow
By Kirk Mellish @ December 2, 2009 5:11 PM Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
I first mentioned on the radio Monday morning (and internally at the station Nov 22nd) a change to cold enough for snow Thursday-Saturday. The 12Z NAM and GFS today suggested at least snow flurries from I-85 Northwestward with an inch or two in the Mountains toward TN and NC.

The 18Z runs are more split with the NAM keeping flurries to an inch in the mountains and little or none near ATL, while the GFS has flurries all the way to South-Central Georgia and and inch or two in the Mountains and North and West ATL suburbs.

This is models of the weather not the actual weather until it happens. I suspect that even in a "worst case" or best if you love snow, with the time of year and warm pavement any accumulation would just be on grassy areas and rooftops and would melt away soon after precip came to an end.

I prefer 12 and 0Z model runs as a rule but I cant dismiss the possibility of some coating or so but will wait for another run or two of models before committing to more than curiosity snow flurries in Metro ATL Friday night or on Saturday.

I've warned before and in my winter outlook about the problem with systems coming from the data black hole of southern jet stream STJ and the model problems with split-flows. Still, as we've seen since Sept Gulf systems have had a tendency to "out perform" this season.

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 10:23 PM

00Z Nam Moisture is increasing with each run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_066s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_slp_066s.gif

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/us.namacctype00-02.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 10:34 PM

SREF has 7+ inches of Snow right in my chase zone :)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROB_21z/f12s63.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 10:50 PM

00Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_060l.gif

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 11:04 PM

Definately looking more and more likely that accumulating snow will happen to some in the deep, maybe very deep south.

Stormlover

12-02-2009, 11:42 PM

Friday night:
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/forecast/map_wkpln_night3_3usec_enus_440x297.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-02-2009, 11:59 PM

We will be streaming live from MS Friday night/Sat Morning

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 12:03 AM

Accuweather:

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws3_430.jpg

QUOTE

Significant Snow For The South

A storm moving southward through the Intermountain West will soon be causing snow in the southern tier of the country. The snow will begin in New Mexico Thursday then spread into western Texas Thursday night. The mountains of northern New Mexico could get up to 10 inches from the storm. Friday, the snow will reach into eastern Texas and Louisiana where a couple of inches are possible. Though not a big deal up north, it is quite unusual to get that much snow so far south so early in the season.

Friday night, the snow will spread into Mississippi, Alabama and northern Georgia where there also may be a whitening of the ground.

Story By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

hurricaneguy

12-03-2009, 02:47 AM

How's things looking for East Tennessee

dkmac

12-03-2009, 06:16 AM

N.O. NWS:

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TO GIVE US A LIGHT SNOW IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH COLORADO AND WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS
IS OCCURRING INSIDE A LARGER ROSSBY WAVE ALREADY SET UP OVER 80%
OF THE CONUS. THE SMALLER UPPER TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT IS FCAST TO
SHARPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH BY SAT MORNING. BUT BEFORE THAT IT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND LAYER LIFTING TO CAUSE SOME WINTER WX FOR THE
AREA. PROBLEM IS OBVIOUS...MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG
WIND SPEEDS MOVING THROUGH AT JET LEVEL FRI NIGHT PROVIDING THE
LIFTING MECHANISM WHICH WILL SQUEEZE ANY MOISTURE FROM THE
ADJOINING LAYERS BELOW. PROBLEM WITH GETTING ANY STRONG SNOWFALL
WILL BE THE DISCONNECTION OF THE SFC LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE MOVING OVER OUR AREA. WITHOUT THE CONNECTION TO THE SFC
LOW...THERE CAN BE LITTLE MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE MID LEVELS OF
THE TROUGH. SLANTWISE CONVECTION WILL BE AT A MINIMUM UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES PAST. THE THING WE WOULD LOOK FOR TO GET A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SNOW IS AN UPPER LOW CONNECTED WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE
GULF. THE UPPER LOW WOULD HELP BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE LOWER
HEIGHTS TO THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS COLDER. THE SLANTWISE
CONVECTION AND UPPER LOW WOULD WRAP THIS UNENDING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THIS AREA AND LET IT FALL THROUGH THOSE COLD LAYERS.

WITH THE SETUP WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE...WE WOULD SEE THE STRONG JET
LEVEL WINDS LIFTING AND SQUEEZING OUT WHAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THERE IS IN A LINEAR PATTERN...SIMPLY CAUSING SNOW STREAKS. IF WE
CAN SEE ONE OF THESE STREAKS SET UP OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR...WE MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HALF TO INCH RANGE.
THE GOING FCAST LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AND HAVE CHANGED A FEW THINGS
MAINLY SHOWING THE DIFFERENT MIXED WINTRY PRECIP TYPES AND WHERE
HEIGHTS SUPPORT THEIR EXISTANCE. THE MIX IS NOT WITH US LONG AND
TO SEE IT YOU WILL NEED TO STAY AWAKE INTO THE EVENING AND
MORNING HOURS FRI NIGHT EARLY SAT MORNING.

THE BIGGEST ISSUES ARE GOING TO BE WITH ELEVATED ROADWAYS. EVEN IF
A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW/RAIN IS OCCURRING...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO FREEZE ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
DETAILING THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS WILL BE
EXAMINED AND TRANSMITTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:05 AM

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2009120221/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f063.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2009120221/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f060.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:07 AM

NWS Round up

FFC:

THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF...BUT THIS TIME TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN... AND SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE
AND RAIN SPREADING UP OVER THE COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
DOWN FROM THE NE. THE STABLE...COOL RAIN WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN LIFTING OFF TO THE NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. BOTH NAM AND GFS
TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NORTH GA...BUT COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA BY 6 AM SATURDAY. RELATIVELY
WARM WET GROUNDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR SO IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY ON ELEVATED OR
GRASSY SURFACES. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SATURDAY MORNING SNOW TO TURN BACK TO RAIN BY NOONISH...BEFORE
PULLING OFF TO THE NE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTH GA ZONES...SINCE IT
SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN...TURN TO SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO RAIN
BEFORE ITS ALL OVER. OVERALL...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
TO AVERAGE FROM MAYBE 1/2 INCH NORTH TO AN INCH OR LESS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...SO NO FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...SO USED A BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MRX:

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
MOST FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY FROM 12Z RUN...WITH A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM OUR FORECAST AREA EASTWARD
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH A STRONG VORT MAX SWEEPING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NO SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT
...BUT STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A COLD
ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP SATURATION...LEADING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM 0.40 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. 850 MB TEMPS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW...AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH AS TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER FALL TO
-20 TO -25 DEGREES CELSISUS.
THUS...FOLLOWED WEATHER WEATHER DESK (WWD) GRAPHICS FAIRLY CLOSE...
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE TN-NC LINE...AS WELL AS
HIGHER SPOTS OF SWRN VA. FOR NOW...KEPT OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AROUND
AN INCH OR SO...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SRN VALLEY. PUSHED POPS UP TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. THANKS TO GSP AND RNK FOR
COORDINATION ON THESE CHANGES.

OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO GFSX MOS FOR TEMPS...WITH A SLIGHT
UNDERCUT OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

HUN:
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS PACKAGE STARTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
HERE WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO MONTANA/WYOMING
AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE H5 TROUGH. AS HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW
SENDS THIS SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY IT MERGES WITH A
SECOND WEAK WAVE OVER THE GOMEX AND SPINS UP A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN GOMEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SITTING WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOW...THE CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
POSITION OF THE LOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WRT
BUFR INDICATED MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT BOTH MSL AND HSV.
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA...WHILE BUFR PROFILES ARE NEARLY
SATURATED ABOVE H8 BY 06Z SATURDAY...THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE STILL
VERY DRY /ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ SO OPTED TO RETAIN VERY LOW-END POPS
IN THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE 03Z SREFS AOA 1-IN
PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF MSL.

AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOULD BE CENTERED ALONG A
CULLMAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON AXIS...WHERE A NW-SE CROSS SECTION SHOWS A
NICE MIDLEVEL /H55-60/ FGEN/OMEGA COUPLET. HOWEVER...THE BEST
AGEOSTROPHIC VERT CIRC IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. 03Z SREF
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE OF AOA 1-IN IN THIS
AREA...WITH NON-ZERO /BUT EXTREMELY LOW/ 4-IN PROBABILITIES. BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE NORTHEAST AND SNOW TOTALS CENTERS AROUND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE VERY MARGINAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SORT OF WET-BULB COOLING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
SHOULD ALLEVIATE THIS CONCERN.

A QUICK LOOK AT SOIL TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATES
THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AT 2IN AND 4IN DEPTHS...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SEE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW...GROUNDS TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND THEREFORE TRAVEL
CONCERNS. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER SITUATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST...AS WINTER WEATHER FORECASTING IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY COMES WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.

BMX:

WELL...WITH THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE WAY...ALL EYES TURN
TOWARDS THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE STAYING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT...INSISTING THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL BE IN FOR WHAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A
MEASURABLE SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AROUND MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SATURDAY.

ONE IMMEDIATE ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT MANY OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH
WITH BOTH THE RAIN-SNOW CUTOFF LINE AND WITH THE HEAVIER BULLSEYE
AMOUNTS. OF COURSE...CENTRAL ALABAMA IS SETTING UP TO BE THE
BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...AND HAVE BROUGHT THAT
DISTINCTIVE LINE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT
AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS MGM AND AUB WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. MAKE NO
MISTAKE THAT AREAS NORTH HAVE ALL THE MODEL SUPPORT FOR
SNOW...HOWEVER...THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...IT WILL BE HAMPERED BY
THE LACK OF MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW...BEST FORECAST FOR THE SNOW SWEET
SPOT FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
59 AND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85. I HAVE ALSO STARTED TO
GENERATE SOME FIRST GUESS AMOUNTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH AREAS
MENTIONED SEEING UP TO AN INCH OR MORE...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE EAST POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE ONE INCH CRITERIA. SO FAR...THIS
WILL LEAVE US OUT OF A WINTER STORM WARNING/WATCH...AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP US IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RANGE. STAY TUNED
FOR PRODUCT UPDATES WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

IT IS WORTH ONE FINAL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
ARE REALLY HAMMERING OUT SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS FOR AREAS IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THESE AREAS...BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE SHOWING DECENT
PROBABILITIES FOR NEARLY FOUR INCHES FOR THE EVENT TOTALS. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THESE FORECASTS TREND OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NASH:

DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW
OVER OH CONTINUES TO PULL NEWD. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD AND DEEPEN SGFNTLY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF BY FRI EVE. THE LOW MOVES ENE
ACROSS THE GULF AND NEWD ACROSS FL WITH EXTENSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
OVER THE SERN STATES. THE MIX OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE LEADS TO A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE
FRI NGT THROUGH SAT. OF COURSE...POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR NOW...POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT THESE MAY INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT TIME.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:08 AM

Jackson MS

...EARLY SEASON SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...WELL...FORECAST IS NOT ANY EASIER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FRI
NIGHT. THE QUESTION WITH THE PREV FORECASTS WAS: WILL IT SNOW? IF
SO...THEN THE AMOUNTS WERE GOING TO BE LIGHT. NOW...CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH HIGHER ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL SNOW. THE CHALLENGE NOW IS HOW
MUCH. MORE ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT BELOW.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDING INTO THE
AREA AS YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE NE.
WHAT IS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM IS A QUITE LARGE AND DEEP
CENTRAL CONUS TROF WITH MEAN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEV
BELOW NORMAL VALUES WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH S
TX. WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR STEADILY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND NO
APPRECIABLE LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...LOOK FOR TODAY INTO THE
FIRST 1/2 OR 1/3 OF FRI TO BE PRECIP FREE. CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AND RUN SOME 10-13 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMS. CLOUDS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO HAVE
A STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1700-3000 FT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MULTIPLE
BREAKS IN THAT DECK AS IT IS FAR FROM CONTINUOUS. THIS VARIABLE
NATURE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BKN/OVC AREAS. WHAT I
EXPECT TODAY IS A MORE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AS SFC
HEATING OCCURS AND MIXING ALLOWS FOR SOME SORT OF SCT/BKN DECK.
VARIATIONS ON PARTLY TO MO CLOUDY SKY CONDITION LOOKS TO FIT BEST.
GUID HIGH TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME HIGH
STUFF SPREADING OVER AND BECOMING THICKER FRI MORNING. GUID TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAM HAVE BEEN
OFFERING COOLER LOWS AND I HAVE DECIDED TO CUT THE GFS TEMPS SOME
2-3 DEGREES.

FOR FRI...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG S/W TROF
WHICH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURE. AS THIS
OCCURS...DECENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALOFT AND DEVELOP...THEN SPREAD
QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NW/N GULF WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS TX. DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER...STEADY
CAA FROM N/NE LOW LEVELS WINDS RESPONDING TO THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW...I EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AND STAY SOME 3-6
DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUID. AS FOR ANY ONSET OF PRECIP...I HAVE
LOWERED POPS FROM THE MOST RECENT GUID FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND STAYED
WITH THE PREV FORECAST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF
VIRGA FALLING BUT THAT WILL MAINLY SERVE TO COOL THE LOWER LEVELS
DUE TO EVAPORATION AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE WINTRY WX LATER FRI
NIGHT.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST GUID HAS
STRONG SUPPORT AND CONTINUITY FROM ALL MODELS IN DEVELOPING SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS...HOW MUCH? THE VARIOUS
MEMBERS OF THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALL POINT TO SOLID POTENTIAL
FOR A 1/2 TO 1 INCH TYPE ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS OFFERING
2-4 INCHES. WHILE THERE DOES EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRIPE OF
THE CWA TO SEE >2 INCHES...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THAT AT
THE MOMENT TO RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS 2 INCHES IS OUR LOCAL THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING HEAVY SNOW
WATCHES/WARNINGS. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IT SNOWING WITH
LIGHT 1 INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS ALONG I-20 AND SOUTH.
ACTUALLY THE BEST AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO EXTEND SW TO
NE ALONG A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO NEWTON WITH IN A SWATH SOME 30-40
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE DEFINED AXIS. THAT AREA OFFERS THE BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...DYNAMIC COOLING AND ASCENT. RECENT EVENTS
OVER THE PAST TWO YRS HAVE GIVEN US TROUBLE IN PINPOINTING THE
HEAVIEST LOCATIONS B/C THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE
WARMER AREAS. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING HAS ALWAYS WON OUT AND THE
GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN S/SE OF THE INITIAL AXIS...CLOSER
TO THE MOISTURE SOURCE. TAKING ALL THAT INTO ACCOUNT...I AM LEANING
MORE TO THE S THIS GO ROUND FOR THE PRIMARY ACCUMULATION AXIS. AS
FOR NOW...NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
GETTING TO THAT 2 INCH THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...AS MORE MODEL DATA
ARRIVES AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOCATION/AMOUNTS...WE WILL HAVE
TO DECIDE ON IF WE NEED A ADVISORY/WATCH AND ULTIMATELY A WARNING.
AT THIS TIME...A ADVISORY WOULD FIT THIS SITUATION AND WOULD LIKELY
BE NEED BY THIS SHIFT TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHIFT MAY
DECIDE TO GET THINGS GOING IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR THE TIMING...FRI NIGHT IS THE TIME WITH SOME ONSET STARTING
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE TYPE WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXING IN AT THE START. HOWEVER...ONCE COOLING GET THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP CLOSE TO 34/35 DEGREES THEN IT WILL BECOME ALL
SNOW. I LEFT LIGHT SNOW WORDING FOR THE ONSET AND THEN FOR AREAS N
OF I-20. BETWEEN 04-12Z...AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-20 I WENT WITH MOD
SNOW TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 1 INCH TYPE ACCUMULATION. /CME/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND SHIFT EAST AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:09 AM

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:11 AM

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of southeast TX and all of southwest LA.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamaps/lch-is.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/png/hgx.png

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:16 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lix/graphicast/image4.gif

Special Weather Statement from NWS N.O

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
549 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-032130-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...S LIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WH ITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY ...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHA N...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LI BERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCA GOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
549 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD AIRMASS IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN ALL SNOW LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM BAYOU SORREL TO HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
INCLUDES THE BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN AREA. A SNOW SLEET MIX
SHOULD EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI AT
MIDNIGHT INCLUDING THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A RAIN
SLEET MIX SHOULD EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM HOUMA TO OCEAN SPRINGS
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHSHORE AREA OF
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...GULFPORT AND BILOXI. ACCUMULATIONS OF
ANY WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO GREATER
THAN ONE INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI.

THE LARGEST PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS BECOMING A TRAVEL
HAZARD. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY OR
EARLY FRIDAY.

$$

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:22 AM

NWS Mobile is down playing things once again

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
FORM EAST...OFF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY AND TRACK
EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HELPS TO DRAW
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS OCCURS COINCIDENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED BETTER
LIFT OPERATING ON INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE). A LOOK AT FORECAST LAYER
THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) PROFILES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
INDICATE THAT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL TRANSITION TO A SNOW SOUNDING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SOUNDING)
AS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES MOVE TO LESS THAN ZERO DEGREES
CELSIUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CELSIUS). THUS...FROM THE DATA WE HAVE SEEN...IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWEST ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE RAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LATEST QPF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) SUGGESTS
.15-.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WHICH AMOUNTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
AROUND AN INCH OF POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY AND OTHER
COLDER EXPOSED SURFACES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ON WARMER ROADS AND
OVERPASSES. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WILL GO EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH
THE HOLIDAY DECOR BREAKING OUT IN EARNEST AND WILL MAKE FOR SOME NICE
PICTURE TAKING. A BIT FURTHER SOUTH..THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINS
BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THERMAL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL) PROFILES
AND COMPOSITE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=COMPOSITE) THICKNESSES OVER DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES SUGGEST A COLD RAIN EVENT THERE FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST
CRITERIA FOR ISSUING ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS STATES
INSIDE 36 HOURS OF THE EVENT WITH THIS LOOKING TO OCCUR IN THE 4TH
PERIOD=>48 HRS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HRS). CONSIDERING THIS AND MORE MODEL DATA TO ASSESS
TODAY...WILL COVER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEKEND IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OUTLOOK).

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:23 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image3.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/hun/graphicast/LongTermGraphicast580x500.png

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 07:41 AM

Joe-Nathan

12-03-2009, 07:51 AM

NOW THIS IS WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNSEASONABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING...

.ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE ON FRIDAY...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROBUST FEATURE
WILL PHASE IN WITH A WESTERLY DISTURBANCE ALOFT...GENERATING
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO SNOW BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AS THE GULF COAST LOW EXITS EASTWARD.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUOUS SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHT...ENDING NEAR DAWN.

ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY BE IMPACTED. MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 08:43 AM

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 08:56 AM

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/ceba1750.png

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-14258-1259844774.png

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 09:07 AM

Bham , AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
450 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
ALZ011>015-017>050-032200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HAMILTON…SULLIGENT…VERNON…
FAYETTE…DOUBLE SPRINGS…JASPER…ONEONTA…GADSDEN…
ANNISTON…CENTRE…HEFLIN…CARROLLTON…TUSCALOOSA…
BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…COLUMBIANA…PELHAM…ALABASTER…
PELL CITY…MOODY…TALLADEGA…SYLACAUGA…ASHLAND…ROANOKE…
LIVINGSTON…EUTAW…GREENSBORO…MOUNDVILLE…MARION…
CENTREVILLE…CLANTON…ROCKFORD…ALEXANDER CITY…DADEVILLE…
VALLEY…LANETT…LAFAYETTE…DEMOPOLIS…LINDEN…SELMA…
PRATTVILLE…FORT DEPOSIT…HAYNEVILLE…WETUMPKA…TALLASSEE…
MONTGOMERY…TUSKEGEE…UNION SPRINGS…AUBURN…OPELIKA…
PHENIX CITY…TROY…EUFAULA
450 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
…WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY…
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE FRIDAY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME…AMOUNTS
OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20…59 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85…WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER TOTALS
IN ELEVATED AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20…59 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED…WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO THE WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES.
(Forecaster, K. LAWS )

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 09:36 AM

12Z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_042l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_048l.gif

Stormlover

12-03-2009, 10:21 AM

Why are the times still messed up? Anyway, from TWC.
Friday night:
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/forecast/map_wkpln_night2_3usec_enus_440x297.jpg
Saturday
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/forecast/map_wkpln_day3_3use_enus_440x297.jpg

Stormlover

12-03-2009, 10:46 AM

12 GFS is dryer for the areas cold enough for snow
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_048s.gif

Stormlover

12-03-2009, 11:28 AM

Canadian looks better
http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/1406/600100.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 11:51 AM

06Z CMC

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/789beab1.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 12:23 PM

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2009/snow12309.png

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 12:56 PM

Jackson, MS

LIGHT SNOW...WITH A WINDOW OF TIME FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW...WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH A
DEVELOPING GULF LOW AND HELPS TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRIMARY TIME FOR SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4
AM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES WITH TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH.
SOME OF THE MORE RECENT FORECAST MODELS DO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATION AND THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS HEAVY
SNOW CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 01:05 PM

Please check in and tell us what your local mets are saying

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 01:17 PM

12Z UKMET

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/cb004845.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 01:25 PM

Euro qpf

HOU: 0.25"
ATL: 0.20-0.25"
TRI: 0.20-0.25"
LYH: 0.35-0.40"
RIC: 0.60"
DCA: 0.25-0.30"
BWI: 0.20"
PHL: 0.10"
NYC: T
BOS: T

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 01:51 PM

TWC map

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/adfa9630.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 02:13 PM

From Alabamawx.com

Most of the 12 UTC models are now in. Still some disagreement, making the forecast more difficult. Model snow amounts for BHM and MGM:
Model/BHM/MGM
NAM: 1″/1.7″
GFS: 0.1″/0.5″
Canadian: 1″/1.5″
SREF: 0.5″/1.0″
This is the “classic” setup for snow in Alabama, with an upper level disturbance moving across central Alabama and a low pressure area in the Gulf. It’s a weak system, so snow amounts are small. The GFS model is the outlier, showing a layer of dry air at low-levels and weaker dynamics, resulting in only flurries. This model has been inconsistent the past few days, going from 5″ to 0 to 2″ to 0, so I would lean a little more on the NAM, since it has been more consistent.
Here are loops of the NAM surface pressure field, precip, and 850 mb temp (when 850 mb temps are below freezing, precip generally falls as snow), and of 500 mb heights and vorticity, showing the upper-level disturbance. These loops run through Saturday at 6 pm.
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/nam-precip.gif (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/nam-precip.gif)
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/nam-500-mb.gif (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/nam-500-mb.gif)
Here is the total precip accumulation for the event, from the SREF model. The amounts I show are for snow, but the rain/snow line will likely be somewhere between Clanton and Montgomery.
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/precip.PNG (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/precip.PNG)
So, unless the GFS model is keying on something the other models are not, we could see 1/2 to 1″ of snow in BHM Friday night/Saturday morning, and somebody in south-central Alabama may see up to 2″. I put the favored location in Montgomery yesterday, I’m going with Thorsby now.
One other thing to mention is that the ground is warm. Here are 4″ soil temperatures from some stations of the Auburn Mesonet from 7 am this morning:
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/soil-temp.PNG (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/soil-temp.PNG)
So, any snow that falls will have a hard time accumulating, and travel problems should be limited. Still, there could be some icy bridges Saturday morning if this event actually happens. The good thing is that with warm ground temps and highs reaching the upper 30s Saturday afternoon, most of the snow should be gone by sunset Saturday anyway.
It will be fun to watch this one!

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 03:30 PM

18Z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p48_048l.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 03:39 PM

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 03:48 PM

SE TEXAS

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
119 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 12 AM
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A COLD RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW
DURING THE DAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BAN OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ALLUDE TO THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-040400-
/O.EXA.KHGX.WS.A.0002.091204T1200Z-091205T0600Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBER G...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON...WINNIE
119 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE MORNING BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 30S
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THE RAIN WILL GET A LITTLE HEAVIER
TOWARD NOON AND BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW. PERIODS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GROWING
CONSENSUS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIE ALONG
AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 59. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES SHOW SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME ISOLATED SNOW TOTALS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. MOST OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS
SITUATION IS STILL IN FLUX AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE RADICALLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS...WINTER
WEATHER WATCHES...OR WARNINGS. THE THREAT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
END OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SO ANY RESIDUAL WET SPOTS
WILL FREEZE AND ELEVATED BRIDGES WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME ICY SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WATCH AREA MAY BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE ON ROADWAYS...
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. EXERCISE
CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF
TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

&&

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 04:00 PM

12Z runs were a little depressing but this cheers me up

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_048l.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 04:06 PM

http://i.imwx.com/looper/archive/map_spectrop06_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405/4L.jpg?1259874342686

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 04:10 PM

18Z WRF

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRF_18z/f42.gif

Joe-Nathan

12-03-2009, 05:00 PM

From Dave Baker with KATC TV3: (How to forecast S. LA sneaux)

A Winter Storm Watch will be in effect for Friday evening as the potential for winter like precipitation increases according to each model run. Predicting winter weather is very difficult, especially in Acadiana. For one, we don’t get a lot of practice forecasting winter precipitation since we have measurable snow in Acadiana on average every 8-10 years. Secondly, like in all forecasting in Louisiana, the Gulf of Mexico is the wild card every time. Thirdly, because snow is so uncommon along the Gulf Coast, even the computers that spit out model data get confused and either overplay the winter weather coverage, or dismiss it entirely.

Over the past two days, we’ve see two computer models that have been consistent from run to run. Meaning they’ve predicted basically the same thing over and over. When you have that consistency, the models become more trustworthy. The problem is, both models are predicting something different. One model, the GFS cranks up a surface low over the Gulf, and throws a large amount of moisture into the cold air providing accumulating snow across the majority of Acadiana. The other model is the ECMWF. This model is provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. It has an upper level system producing snow over Texas, then weakening over Louisiana, while at the same time keeping the surface low over the Gulf well to the south. This would limit the precipitation altogether over Acadiana. Since both models have been predicting the exact same thing over and over, I feel they both can be trusted. Therefore, I’ve gone with a blend of the two.

There are a few other factors we have to look at too. One is the column of air from the ground up. If the air is saturated clouds and precip are likely. Then we look to see the temperature. If the majority of the air is below 32 degrees, snow can be supported. If any part rises above 32 degrees, depending on the height of that warmer layer will decide on the type of precip. Another thing we look at is the geopotential heights. As we go up from the ground, the pressure drops. At the ground the average pressure is around 1013mb. When we talk about “upper level” stuff, we’re generally talking about things that run at the 500mb level or above. The average 500mb level is about 5500 meters above the ground, or about 18,000 feet. As pressures rise and drop, the height of the 500mb level also rises and drops. If we can find the heights of 500mb and 1000mb, then find the distance between the two, that measurement can help us decide whether we get rain or snow during the winter. The “Rain/Snow” line that we look for is 5400 meters between 500mb and 1000mb. Anything higher produces rain, anything lower supports snow. Finally we want to see the forecast temperatures on the ground. Snow can still fall with the temperature above freezing. Snow has more of a potential to stick if the surface temperature is below 32 degrees. Also when the temp drops below freezing, any moisture that lands on exposed surfaces will either stay frozen, or freeze on contact. Bridges and overpasses become frozen because the 32 degree air surrounds the structure. Roadways on the ground still have heat from the ground to prevent freezing over.
So, now that we have the basics of snow forecasting. Here is the forecast that I’ve put together. I’ve taken the two models and blended them together. I’ve also added the 5400m Rain/Snow line which is red. Included is the 32 degree line that is purple. The first image is the forecast for 5pm Friday. The second is for 11pm Friday night. Snow is forecast for much of southeast Texas and extreme western Louisiana by 5pm. The rain/snow line is bisecting Acadiana indicating that some snow could fall over the northwestern parishes. Generally speaking from Lake Charles through Eunice and up to Alexandria. Notice the 32 degree line is well to the north and west. Anything sticking would be on grassy surfaces. If there is any accumulation, it will be in these areas. I’m thinking 1/2″ to 1″ possible. The rest of Acadiana will see some snow fall, but not accumulate. By 11pm, the rain/snow line is south of the entire Acadiana area. The 32 degree line runs from Cameron, to Lafayette, to Baton Rouge. But by this time, most of the precip is east of the area. This would produce more snow over Mississippi and Alabama. But any wet surfaces north of that 32 degree line would start to freeze. So if there are going to be any travel problems across the region, it will be on bridges and overpasses mainly northwest of Lafayette. Hopefully the precip will have stopped long enough by that time to have most bridges and overpasses dry. It’s still a work in progress, so stay tuned tonight and tomorrow. Specifics will be critical with this particular scenario.

http://cordillerablogs.com/katcweather/files/2009/12/rainsnow.jpg

http://cordillerablogs.com/katcweather/files/2009/12/rainsnow1.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 05:05 PM

I can't wait to see what this looks like in the morning

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 05:08 PM

New watches just posted for parts of MS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamaps/jan-is.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-072>074-040600-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...
HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...TAYLORS VILLE...
RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...STONEWALL...
SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADV ILLE...
BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...
COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...
LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
349 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 05:16 PM

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws3_430.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 05:19 PM

MOB issues Winter Storm Watch valid at Dec 04, 9:00 PM CST for Choctaw, Clarke, Washington [AL] and Greene, Perry, Stone, Wayne [MS] till Dec 05, 9:00 AM CST

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 05:21 PM

Wow Mobile, NWS squeezed the Trigger

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
417 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TO THE NORTH...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. DEEP MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THAT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS
FILTERS IN...THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-078-040630-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WS.A.0001.091205T0300Z-091205T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...WAYNESBORO...
RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS
417 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD AIRMASS AND DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. LISTEN
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER UPDATES ON
THIS SITUATION.

&&

$$

firemedic354

12-03-2009, 05:23 PM

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG GULF LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE REGION. A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE TURNING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF THE I-12
CORRIDOR AND INCLUDES THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA...FLORIDA
PARISHES...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. CLOSER TO THE COAST IN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN..SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

LAZ040-MSZ080>082-040615-
/O.NEW.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
ST. TAMMANY-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
LACOMBE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
409 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHATRAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THIS REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

THE MENTIONED ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING AND WALKING
DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING, MOTORISTS NEED TO BE
ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS
CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 06:01 PM

Please check in and tell us what your local mets are saying

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 06:29 PM

18Z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_042l.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 06:43 PM

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/d4a2f085.jpg

Stormlover

12-03-2009, 06:53 PM

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/d4a2f085.jpg
wow, that's wild. Sucks for us, we are either too far north or south.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 08:21 PM

Jackson, MS NWS

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF SNOW. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...FOR WHICH NWP GUIDANCE IS STILL
EXPERIENCING MODEST SPREAD. THE LATEST NAM/EC TAKE THE LOW ON A
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF WHILE
DEEPENING THE LOW AT ABOUT 1 MB PER 6 HOURS...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TOWARD WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
LITTLE CYCLOGENESIS. THE UKMET AND CMC FOLLOW SIMILAR TRACKS AS THE
NAM/EC COMBINATION. GIVEN BETTER CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS COULD BE
SUFFERING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...THUS FORCING STRONGER ASCENT AND ITS OWN TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
AS WHAT WAS SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS GULF LOW...THE MORE NORTHERLY LOW
TRACK WITH SLOW DEEPENING IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THE IMPLICATION
FOR THE FORECAST IS FOR GREATER AMOUNTS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BE ADVECTED FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS...ALONG WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION MOSTLY SNOW.

nightrider

12-03-2009, 08:59 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lch/graphicast/image2.gif

It looks like we could break last years record for snow.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 09:06 PM

00Z Nam time :) I can't wait

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 09:20 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_030l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 09:39 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_030m.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 10:04 PM

Jackson MS NWS

651
FXUS64 KJAN 040301 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
901 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...COUPLE SITES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ARE COOLING SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS EVENING AND BUMPED MIN TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT AT HBG/TVR/GLH DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AS A RESULT. INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE SW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
BOTTOMING OUT BY MORNING. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ERODING...
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING STILL ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING TO NEAR 1400 FT ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES THROUGH 12Z SAT LOOKS TO BE
HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES. UPDATES ARE OUT. /BK/EC/

&&

firemedic354

12-03-2009, 10:08 PM

(8:48:34 PM) nwslix_CAB: new mdls starting to come in and so far the thinking is not changing with the heaviest snow across the northwest portions of our outlook area.
(8:52:32 PM) nwslix_CAB: Looks like locations along and northwest of a Baton Rouge to Franklinton line could see snow up to 2" and if things line up like they look there will likely be a line of 3 to possibly 4" somewhere in there. It just depends where that snow band can set up

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 10:31 PM

Jackson, MS update

657
WWUS84 KJAN 040330
SPSJAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ029>033-037>039-043>052-041030-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON.. .
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RID GELAND...
MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...
DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRAN DON...
RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECA TUR...
CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN
930 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...EARLY SEASON SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...THOUGH SOME SLUSH ON AREA ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SLICK SPOTS. HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTH...WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

HarvestMoon

12-03-2009, 10:39 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lch/graphicast/image2.gif

Winter Storm Warning valid until December 5 6:00am CST

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
932 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNUSUAL EARLY WINTER SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TO SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS....AND LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.

TXZ180>182-201-041145-
/O.UPG.KLCH.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.W.0001.091204T1800Z-091205T1500Z/
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
932 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO TAKE CAUTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
THUS...ANY REMAINING SNOW OR MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS BRIDGES AND
ELEVATED ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FREEZE DURING THIS TIME AND CREATE
AREAS OF BLACK ICE...WHICH IS VERY HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL ACROSS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER 2
INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 10:44 PM

Houston we have a problem...................Jim Cantorie the storm shield is on the way so no snow for you

cat

12-03-2009, 10:49 PM

I just heard a Winter Storm Warning may be issued for the Houston/Galveston area. I don't know what in the hell that even means? I am excited though!!!!! Snow!!!! We are all going to go to work and not be able to make it home....it's going to be very interesting tomorrow. :snow:

ChessieStorm

12-03-2009, 10:52 PM

From a guy who grew up in snow and cold, you southerners will like it. I just wish we'd get it here in Florida where I am /cheers

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 11:00 PM

Please check in and tell us what your local mets are saying

Thanks

firemedic354

12-03-2009, 11:09 PM

Downplaying... What are they seeing that the NWS Mets are not seeing??? They seem to be on with forecasting but the TV Mets are trying to show them up.. We shall see...

ROLLTIDE

12-03-2009, 11:20 PM

Houston TX

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

TXZ178-179-199-200-212>214-227-237-238-041230-
/O.UPG.KHGX.WS.A.0002.091204T1200Z-091205T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.W.0001.091204T1600Z-091205T0200Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...
BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...CONROE...COR RIGAN...
DAYTON...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HEMP STEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
LIVINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1017 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
8 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING
FRIDAY...AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND NOT CHANGE TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO END ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. SOME ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ICY
FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST.

MELTING AND REFREEZING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES...WILL CREATE PATCHES OF BLACK ICE. THIS TYPE OF
ICE IS VIRTUALLY INVISIBLE ON THE ROAD SURFACE...AND CAN CAUSE YOU
TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR CAR.

&&

$$

megsy

12-03-2009, 11:34 PM

Our local mets are saying 3-5" which is crazy. BTW, I haven't been here in a while so my location could say Louisiana but we just moved to Houston.

Here's their blog: http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

Joe-Nathan

12-04-2009, 12:56 AM

NWS LAKE CHARLES, LA

ONLINE WEATHER BRIEFING:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/lch/owbrief/owbrief.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lch/graphicast/image_full2.gif

Joe-Nathan

12-04-2009, 01:09 AM

FROM DAVID PAUL W/ KLFY TV10

Latest Computer Model Runs Confirm Snow…

Just a quick update here on the latest computer model runs coming in Thursday evening. The models reinforce what previous runs have shown - rain kicking in midday Friday into the afternoon, with a changeover to snow during the early-evening hours. For many areas, the change will occur in the 5 PM to 7 PM timeframe, with a period of moderate snow to continue until a little before midnight. Accumulations, while tough to pin-down because of factors such as the warm ground which will lead to melting, plus the wet nature of the snow which will lead to compaction, looks to be generally in the trace to two-inch range, with the chance for three- to even four-inch amounts in isolated areas - but don’t expect that! Melting and compaction will keep many amounts at 2″ or less the way it appears now. Still, icy bridges, overpasses, and elevated roadways will be a concern by late Friday evening and into the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Keep watching TV-10 for the latest.
By David Paul, December 3, 2009, 11:09 pm o'clock

http://livedoppler10.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/snapshot5.jpg

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:40 AM

6z Nam 24hr precip est. thru Sat evening:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_p24_042s.gif

6z GFS 24hr precip est. thru Sat Evening:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p24_042s.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:42 AM

YUCK! :(

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-072>074-051115-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
505 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AREAS SOUTH IF INTERSTATE 20.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST. JOESPH TO QUITMAN LINE. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY
START AS LIGHT RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PRIMARY TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND AROUND 1 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING...SOME SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ON ROAD SURFACES IF MORE
MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A VIGOROUS
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSHES WEST ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:50 AM

Mobile, NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
547 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST REASONING IN THE SHORT
TERM HAD LEAD ME TO COMMIT TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WINTER%20WEATHER%20ADVISORY) ONLY FOR
LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) WAS EARLIER.
ALSO ADDED ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF THE WATCH (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH) TO THE NEW
ADVISORY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY A MIX OF THE GFS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS)...ECMWF (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF)
AND NAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NAM) SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN LOWER POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR MOST AREAS OF THE
CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA)...WITH HIGHER PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST QUICKER ALSO AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS NEAR THE SFC (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SFC) BY 12Z SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT)...MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) DRYING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT). DUE TO TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MANY
AREAS INLAND BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LIKELY) SEE TEMPS BEGIN
TO WET BULB LATE THIS EVENING. ALOFT...LATEST THICKNESS VALUES STILL
SUPPORT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED THEN CHANGING TO MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO
NOTED...FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED LIFT OF UPPER JET STREAK (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET%20STREAK) NOW
LOOKS TO BE MORE TO THE EAST OR OUT OF PHASE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED REDUCING OR LIMITING THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
BANDING OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWFA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWFA) SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO A
TAD LOWER THAN THE MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AND TAD HIGHER OVERNIGHT.
/32

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:01 AM

Accueweather video update

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=1670024770&title=Breaking%20Weather%20News

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:06 AM

dkmac

12-04-2009, 07:30 AM

N.O. NWS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MOSAIC RADAR ECHOES SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT THINGS SHOULD
LOOK LIKE WHEN THE SNOW STARTS THIS EVENING. BASICALLY...SNOW
STREAKS OF 20 TO 30DB RETURNS. SOME AREAS WHERE RADAR ECHOES ARE
FINDING THE MELTING LAYER...WE SHOULD SEE RETURNS AS HIGH AS 45DB.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER RETURNS. AM
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE ANY HIGH
AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION. QPF IS OBVIOUSLY HIGHER OVER THE
SOUHTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NAMELY THE SOUTH SHORE AND A VERY THIN
STRETCH OF THE NORTH SHORE AND MISS GULF COAST. BUT THIS IS ALSO
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE FOR A WINTRY MIX AT BEST. A
MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD MELT WHAT SNOW MIXES IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HAVE SEARCHED FOR A REASON TO GET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES BUT CAME UP SHORT. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REQUIRES 2" OR MORE WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WHAT WE
ARE SHOWING IS A MAX OF 1.5" AT BEST AND THAT WOULD HAVE TO FALL
UNDER A STRONG PERSISTANT SNOW STREAK. HAVE LEFT THIS NUMBER IN
THE GRIDS AND TEXT THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE THIS DOES OCCUR...BUT
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE ADVISORY SHOULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH. ST
TAMMANY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MISS WILL BE LEFT IN THE
ADVISORY AS WELL MAINLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THOSE AREAS. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS BY EARLY SAT MORNING JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE HIGHER ACCUMULATION NUMBERS WEST OF THE AREA
WHICH LOWER AS THE CAUSAL FEATURE APPROACHES AND DRIES OUT.

PROBLEMS ARE OBVIOUS AND BRINGS US TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE
PRECIP THAT FALLS MELTS AND REFREEZES TO THESE STRUCTURES BY SAT
MORNING. THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR PEOPLE THAT HAVE TO DRIVE
EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS OCCURS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM BATON ROUGE TO VANCLEAVE MISS.

halecjaclyn

12-04-2009, 07:46 AM

We're in Katy a suburb west of Houston and they're saying the "wintry mix" should turn to just snow around noon. It's already sleeting in Wharton, which is towards the coast. I'll try and get some pics when it starts :)

halecjaclyn

12-04-2009, 08:45 AM

we have flurries... it's only 7:45am, they were saying no snow until noon....

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:06 AM

Snow Cancel for central AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE BIG SNOW FANS OUT THERE...THE MODELS
ARE REALLY TRENDING AWAY FROM WHAT WAS EXPECTED TO BE THE INCH OR
POSSIBLY MORE OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
NEWER RUNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM ARE NOW SHOWING JUST
BETTER THAN DUSTING...IF THAT MUCH...ACROSS THE AREA...AND I TEND
TO AGREE.

BEGINNING WITH THE OUTLIER NAM...IT REALLY IS STICKING
TO A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN...REALLY TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST 6Z RUN...EVEN IT HAS
STARTED TO TREND DRIER. FIRST GUESS...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS. THE GFS AND EURO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE DRIER
TREND AS THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKER...LEAVING US AT THE MERCY OF SOME MOISTURE POOLING OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT WILL SWING THIS WAY OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER
TODAY. THE GFS/EURO SOLUTION SEEMS REALISTIC IN SUGGESTING THAT
THE ENERGY TRANSFER WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AND
MORE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FROM A
POSITIVE...TO NEUTRAL...TO NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. THAT WOULD DEFINITELY SUGGEST A DRIER FORECAST. TO BACK UP MY
ASSERTIONS...THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS AND EVEN SOME OF THE MEMBERS KEEP US COMPLETELY
DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:07 AM

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws3_430.jpg

One to three inches of snow will fall today and tonight from central and eastern portions of Texas through the Deep South. Most roads should just be wet or slushy as temperatures remain near or just above freezing.

Heavier squalls of snow could allow for quick accumulations on roads that will lead to dangerous driving conditions. It is also important to remember that bridges and overpasses could be icy even when most roads are just wet.

Interstates that could be impacted by slow traffic due to the storm include I-10, I-20, I-45, I-55, and I-59.

The graphic is open-ended to the east, allowing for the storm to shift into the central Atlantic region by Saturday.

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 09:21 AM

Reports from my aunt of heavy snow falling, accumulations occurring in Pearland, TX... Seen the video but it's on my facebook...

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:21 AM

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/conus/Wx8_conus.png

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 09:22 AM

Heavy snow being reported, video from my aunt on my facebook proves it... She said it's starting to accumulate..

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:22 AM

12Z NAM

Don't give up on this system just yet snow lovers in MS and AL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_024l.gif

ced_pearlandtx

12-04-2009, 09:26 AM

Snow falling in Pearland. Moderate but it is melting on contact. Temperature is 36 and it has fallen 3 degrees in past hour once the rain began. Looks like is going back to rain now.

Joe-Nathan

12-04-2009, 09:30 AM

Snow falling in Pearland. Moderate but it is melting on contact. Temperature is 36 and it has fallen 3 degrees in past hour once the rain began. Looks like is going back to rain now.

Dammit man we need PICTURES!!!!

J/K

Patiently waiting here in Lafayette for it to start...

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:36 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/bmx/graphicast/image2.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:37 AM

Houston Cams

http://web.live.weatherbug.com/LiveCameras/2/LiveCameras.aspx?no_cookie_zip=77001&no_cookie_stat=HSTCH&no_cookie_world_stat=&zcode=Z4555&camera_group=1&camera_zip=77001&enlarge=1&camera_id=KHOUT&lid=CENNXT

Hurricane

12-04-2009, 09:38 AM

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
323 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

..
AN UNUSUAL EARLY WINTER SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.A VERY COLD AMARILLO HIGH WILL TRAVEL SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...A GULF COAST LOW WILL
FORM JUST SOUTHEAST BROWNSVILLE BEFORE TRAVELING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO WEATHER
FEATURES...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SURFACE.

FURTHER-UP...AN INTENSE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE PHASING IN OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT ATTENDING THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH CYCLONIC LIFT
ATTENDING THE TRAVELING GULF COAST LOW...WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION BY MIDAFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL END...FROM WEST TO EAST...BEFORE SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY.

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-042100-
/O.EXT.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T0900Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
323 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY.

MORNING RAINS WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MIDAFTERNOON
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY TO A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SNOW AFTER SUNSET...
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY
PERSIST. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE LIKELY...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER THE SATURDAY SUNRISE. THUS...ANY REMAINING SNOW OR MOISTURE
ON ROADWAYS MAY FREEZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD...CREATING
PATCHES OF POORLY-VISIBLE BLACK ICE.

MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Jomma

12-04-2009, 09:41 AM

I'm in Lafayette, hope we see some snow!

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:47 AM

If anybody has any pics and video that they want hosted feel free to shoot me a PM and I will give you my email

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:51 AM

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/f3ab5bc3.png

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:52 AM

12Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_024l.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 09:59 AM

HGX continues Winter Storm Warning for Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Harris, Houston, Liberty, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller [TX] till 8:00 PM CST

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:00 AM

Looks like a little more precip to work with here is a simulated radar for 3am Sat

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2009/12/04/12/NAM_221_2009120412_F21_CREF_SURFACE.png

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 10:11 AM

http://photos-f.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/hs107.snc3/15444_1313267391737_1232243628_957125_4800993_n.jp g

Jomma

12-04-2009, 10:16 AM

awesome!!

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:22 AM

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2196.html

kixette

12-04-2009, 10:24 AM

It was POURING down rain at the beach this morning. I sure do hope the Surfside powers that be de-ice my bridge so I get to go back there!
Reports from co-workers families - "big" snowflakes in Lake Jackson AND in West Columbia - nothing in Freeport yet.
If it snows on the beach, I'll take photos and post after work!
oh yeah, and it is sooooo cold!

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:25 AM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...UPR TX CST...SWRN-CNTRL LA AND EXTREME SWRN MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 041620Z - 042215Z

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING AT CRP AND RECENT AIRCRAFT OBS SUGGEST THAT
MODELS WERE TOO WARM WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...DPROG/DT OF THE SHORT-TERM MODEL SUITE
INDICATE A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE APCHG UPR TROUGH OVER THE TX
BIG BEND REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EARLIER ONSET OF PCPN ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A MORE RAPID PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW...AN
UNUSUAL EVENT FOR EARLY DECEMBER AT THIS LATITUDE.

WEBCAMS IN THE SERN METRO HOUSTON AREA INDICATE THAT RAIN HAS
CHANGED TO SNOW AND PHASE CHANGE TO SLEET SW OF KCRP LEND CREDENCE
TO THE ABOVE THINKING OF A COLDER-THAN-FCST TROPOSPHERE.
AS THE UPR TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...PWAT VALUES OF
0.8-1" WILL BE DRAWN NEWD ATOP THE SFC COLD DOME...BOOSTING PCPN
RATES/EFFICIENCY. AS PCPN RATES INCREASE...WET-BULB PROCESSES WILL
MAKE FOR DEEP AOB 0 DEG C ISOTHERMAL PROFILES AND RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN A 40-60 MILE WIDE BAND EXTENDING FROM THE E AND SERN
SUBURBS OF HOUSTON NEWD TO 40 N OF KLCH TO ABOUT 25 S OF KHEZ.
HERE...STRONGEST 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BECOME
JUXTAPOSED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AND RESULT IN THE NARROWING OF THE
HEAVIEST PCPN BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1/2-1" PER HOUR AT
TIMES.

..RACY.. 12/04/2009

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29819515 30559432 31529222 31839095 31029079 30729120
30519193 30269315 29999419 29629501 29819515

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2196.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:28 AM

Noaa Sugar Land, TX

NOAA about Sugar Land, Tx area:

300 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS JET ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SE TX IN A RIGHT REAR QUAD. SOME
CONCERN THAT ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT SINCE THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURRED SO EARLY...FEEL IT IS BEST TO LEAVE
THINGS AS IS.

REPORTS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN JACKSON COUNTY THIS MORNING AND
HEAVY SNOW IN PARTS OF PEARLAND AND FRESNO. OTHER REPORTS OF
HEAVY SNOW ALONG US 59 IN WHARTON AND FT BEND COUNTIES. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE JACKSON...WHARTON AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES

jbdigitalphoto

12-04-2009, 10:35 AM

Rolli Quick question for you on that last image you posted would the blue be snow? If that is the case it looks like we may get more than scattered snow flurries in Greenville SC. I have batteries charging today hoping to get some nice snow photos tomorrow.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:36 AM

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/5759a4cb.png

Jomma

12-04-2009, 10:39 AM

Does this mean it will rain/snow earlier in Louisiana??

nightrider

12-04-2009, 10:41 AM

Both.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:44 AM

From Http://www.weathertap.com

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/89f60319.png

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:46 AM

Houston Traffic cams

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv/transtar/
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 10:49 AM

I will be streaming after 7pm today live from MS

http://chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=225:james-kinkaid&catid=20:chaser-pages&Itemid=82

Joe-Nathan

12-04-2009, 10:58 AM

Houston Traffic cams

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv/transtar/
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

Now that is cool seeing snow flakes stuck to the camera's lens.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:13 AM

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/usa_None_anim.gif

Jomma

12-04-2009, 11:19 AM

Anybody in Beaumont/ Lake Charles? Whats it looking like there?

Kayso

12-04-2009, 11:30 AM

I am in Beaumont. It is still just drizzly and cold! Some of the private schools are letting out at noon.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:32 AM

Live Video

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6563647

Joe-Nathan

12-04-2009, 11:36 AM

Live Video

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6563647

DAM THAT IS SOME SERIOUS SNOWING...

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:38 AM

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/81cd04c2.png

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:40 AM

HGX continues Freeze Warning for Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Harris, Houston, Jackson, Liberty, Madison, Matagorda, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington, Wharton [TX] till Dec 05, 9:00 AM CST

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:43 AM

This is looking better than the Snow event that we had last December :) Moisture is increasing and the Gulf Low is more organized. I expect some of these Winter Weather advisorys to be replaced with Winter Storm warnings very soon

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:53 AM

MOB continues Winter Weather Advisory valid at Dec 04, 11:00 PM CST for Choctaw, Clarke, Monroe, Upper Baldwin, Upper Mobile, Washington, Wilcox [AL] and George, Greene, Perry, Stone, Wayne [MS] till Dec 05, 9:00 AM CST

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 11:56 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image2.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 12:00 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_024l.gif

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 12:08 PM

Roll.. we got like 4 - 8 inches of snow last Dec... you think the set up is better??? I think the moisture is going to move out to fast.. Hopefull

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1107 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-051230-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-AMITE-
ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HAN****-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-
POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-
WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1107 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12
CORRIDOR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR...A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX MAY START BY EARLY EVENING AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT. ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND
THE RIVER PARISHES...A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING WITH
A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
IN THE ADVISORY. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SNOW BANDS. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DONALDSONVILLE LOUISIANA TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO FREEZE ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONALLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO CREATING STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS BY NOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 12:15 PM

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2197.html

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 12:25 PM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S/CNTRL LA/MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 041813Z - 042215Z

CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVER PARTS
SRN/CNTRL LA AND MS. RATES NEAR .5 TO 1 INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EWD...WITH NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT DRIVING A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SEWD TO THE GULF COAST AS THIS OCCURS. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS LEADING TO SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MUCH OF TX/LA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR N CNTRL TX TO DEVELOP SEWD...WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 18Z LCH SOUNDING INDICATES A SHALLOW LAYER OF
SUBSATURATED AIR BELOW 900 MB WHERE WET-BULB PROCESSES WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WET-BULB EFFECTS/COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A FASTER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW THAN MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR THE COAST WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR .75 TO 1
INCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION RATES/EFFICIENCY.
ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING...STEADY SNOWFALL
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ACCUMULATION.

..HURLBUT.. 12/04/2009

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30289161 30169214 30129306 30549348 31149271 31639185
31989107 32259026 32268929 31968884 31508847 30718898
30329051 30259126 30289161

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2197.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 12:27 PM

Snow now being reported north of Lake Charles ,LA

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 12:35 PM

Things may be looking up.. lets see what LIX starts saying... maybe winter storm watches/warnings?? hmm

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 12:54 PM

Mix reported at National Weather Service in Lake Charles!!

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 12:56 PM

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1252 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG GULF LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING COMPLETELY TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND INCLUDES
THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA...FLORIDA PARISHES...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. CLOSER TO THE COAST IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE
NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN..SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 01:09 PM

11-foot waves reported over part of the NW Gulf as the low-pressure area continues to develop.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 01:52 PM

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2009/snowstorm12409.png

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 02:05 PM

http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c71692/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/pause_16x16.png
Snow Totals

LANE CITY 4.0 INCHES
BOLING 4.0 INCHES
WHARTON 3.0 INCHES
FAIRCHILD 3.0 INCHES
EDNA 2.0 INCHES
PEARLAND (WEST) 2.5 IN

HarvestMoon

12-04-2009, 02:06 PM

It just starting to snow at my house.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 02:09 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/bmx/graphicast/image2.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 02:19 PM

From Alabamawx.com

Snow dynamics – 2 pm (http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=24862)

December 4, 2009, 2:12 pm | Dr. Tim Coleman (timbhm@msn.com) | Forecast Discussion (http://www.alabamawx.com/?cat=2)
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/radar.PNG (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/radar.PNG)
It’s about time to move away from models and look out the window. See James’ post below from the Storm Prediction Center. It is snowing heavily in parts of SE Texas now, with Houston reporting 1″ on the ground at noon. This is mainly due to an approaching upper level disturbance and Gulf moisture coming in at mid-levels.
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/500-mb.PNG (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/500-mb.PNG)
500 mb heights and vorticity
The upper-level disturbance will move across Alabama tonight…the question is how much moisture will be available, and how strong will the upward motion be? The air should be plenty cold enough for a changeover to snow, at least as far south as Montgomery, Brewton, and Coffeeville by early tomorrow morning, especially once precipitation begins to fall and evaporation lowers the temperature more.
Interetingly, the area just to our west in the favorable right-rear quadrant of the upper-level jet, and upper-level divergence is occurring as the atmosphere is out of balance near the jet over Louisiana and parts of Mississippi. As a result of that, pressures are starting to fall rapidly along the Gulf Coast, at places like Gulfport, Mobile, and Panama City.
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/300mb.gif (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/300mb.gif)
300 mb heights, winds, and divergence
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/pchg.gif (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/pchg.gif)
Could this upper jet and falling pressures on the coast help the snow spread farther north as it moves eastward? Precipitation that is not reaching the ground yet due to dry air near the surface, but soon will, is moving into southern Mississippi. Pressures are falling at buoys 100 miles offshore too, but are the rapid falls along the coast an early sign of a Gulf low forming farther north than expected, or simply a fleeting issue? We don’t know yet. But, this could mean the NAM, the snowiest model for BHM, is the correct one. Here is its storm total:
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/nam-precip.PNG (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/nam-precip.PNG)
I think the forecasts you have seen from all of us on this blog for the past two days are still the best guess, given current weather information. That would give BHM 1/2″ to 1″ of snow that melts quickly, with some locations farther SE (Montgomery) possibly seeing 2″. There could be a little more snow in the mountains of east Alabama, also. Still, this is not a major winter storm. It could cause some icy bridges. It is also possible that the whole thing will stay south, with areas NW of Clanton seeing no snow, but that scenario appears unlikely. It will mainly be something neat to look at early tommorrow morning (maybe before sunrise), then be a memory by lunchtime.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 02:41 PM

Mike Geukes (http://www.facebook.com/mikegeukes?ref=mf) Live web cams showing the snow at Grand Valley State University, Allendale Michigan http://www.gvsu.edu/webcams.htm over 10 inches of snow was measured in the Allendale area.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 02:42 PM

Winter Weather Advisory just issued the Bham ,AL DMA

HarvestMoon

12-04-2009, 02:43 PM

http://i291.photobucket.com/albums/ll293/CH_HarvestMoon/Humor/buildingsnowman.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 02:43 PM

#JAN: JAN extends area of Winter Weather Advisory valid at Dec 04, 6:00 PM CST for Hinds, Kemper, Lauderdale,

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 03:07 PM

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 03:21 PM

Light Snow and 36 F at Ft. Polk/Fullerton Landing, LA
Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:54:00 -0600

Light Snow Fog/Mist and 34 F at Ft. Polk/Self Strip, LA
Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:53:00 -0600

Light Snow and 36 F at Barksdale Air Force Base, LA
Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:55:00 -0600

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 03:26 PM

WVUE/FOX 8 Weather Team Snow haters rejoice! Southeast LA's forecast gets less likely as time goes on. The rain is already approaching this afternoon with the cold air well behind. There is still an opportunity fo the two to meet, but it will be very briefly extreme North close to the Mississippi state line. In most areas the moisture will... be gone by the time the deep cold air makes it into the area. -Meteorologist Nicondra Norwood

nightrider

12-04-2009, 03:28 PM

Headed home. Snow should start at my house in a couple of hours. For those of us that will get snow be careful on the roads and enjoy.

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 03:34 PM

You won't get much... maybe a dusting at best

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 03:36 PM

Headed home. Snow should start at my house in a couple of hours. For those of us that will get snow be careful on the roads and enjoy.

moderate to heavy snow now being reported around Cameron, LA/knockonwo

firemedic354

12-04-2009, 03:42 PM

......

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG GULF LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS
AFFECTED INCLUDE THE BATON ROUGE METRO...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAZ034>040-046>050-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050545-
/O.CON.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...S LIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WH ITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB... TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
335 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE TURNING COMPLETELY TO SNOW OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-12 CORRIDOR. SNOW WILL FIRST FORM THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE BATON ROUGE METRO BEFORE SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI BY
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA...THE FLORIDA PARISHES
NORTH OF I-12...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH OF I-12 ALONG THE
NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND OVER INLAND AREAS NORTH OF
I-10 IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THE MAJOR CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
DANGEROUS ICING CONDITIONS MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 03:42 PM

18Z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_018l.gif

cigtyme

12-04-2009, 03:45 PM

nice radar images here!!!

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/radar?radar=64216402&img=5&c=y

http://belo.bimedia.net/WWL/weather/animated-loops/comp/640x480/txgulf_anim.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 03:50 PM

Could be some nice snow from Montgomery to Clanton if the GFS is correct

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_030l.gif

Jomma

12-04-2009, 03:52 PM

What about south central Louisiana?? :(

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 04:18 PM

What about south central Louisiana?? :(

Should start snowing for you in about 4 hours. Temps are falling and in the 38 to 41 degree range now

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 04:19 PM

Mobile,NWS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE DAY TO INCLUDE ESCAMBIA...CONECUH AND BUTLER
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. PRETTY MUCH INCLUDED THE I-65 CORRIDOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LOW%20PRESSURE%20SYSTEM) THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S...HAS ALREADY ENTERED INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THESE AIRMASS
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST. DEEP MOISTURE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE) ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON SAT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SAT) IMAGERY...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BEING DETECTED BY REGIONAL
RADARS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST AND ENTER INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS FILTERS IN...THE RAIN
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...MAINLY OVER GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. RAIN... POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW...COULD OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SKIES
EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY PERIOD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20CHILL) READINGS COULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW IN THE LOWER/MID 20S INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST
SECTIONS. /22

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 04:42 PM

Please check in and tell us what your local mets are saying

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:04 PM

WINTER STORM WARNING TO east of Baton Rouge

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/

HarvestMoon

12-04-2009, 05:09 PM

After three hours of snowing, it is finally sticking on the grass. *fr

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:13 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lix/graphicast/image3.gif

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:23 PM

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2198.html

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:25 PM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...MUCH OF LA...AND CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 042322Z - 050515Z

CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE SNOWFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE E-NEWD
ACROSS LA AND INTO MS THROUGH 06Z...WHILE COMING TO AN END DURING
THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER SERN TX.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
FROM TX INTO MS/AL BY 12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SLOPED REGION OF 850-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
OVER LA AND MS THROUGH 06Z. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT RAPID WET BULB COOLING TO AROUND 32 DEG F IS OCCURRING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGEST UVV/S AND PRECIPITATION RATES...RESULTING
IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS STRONGEST ASCENT SHIFTS FROM SERN TX ACROSS
LA DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN INTO MS BY 03-06Z. AT
THIS TIME...MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH/HOUR...BUT MOIST ISOTHERMAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM/S INDICATE WET HEAVY SNOW FLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE.

..GARNER.. 12/04/2009

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2198.gif

Jomma

12-04-2009, 05:29 PM

Lafayette, Louisiana here, quick drop in temp....rain mixed with sleet and we just finished a good gust of large sized flakes, ice already on husband's windshield hood, only drizzly rain/sleet now. Will take pictures as soon as possible!/jumpforjo

nightrider

12-04-2009, 05:32 PM

You won't get much... maybe a dusting at best

I'll send you pictures.*fr

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:36 PM

Lafayette, Louisiana here, quick drop in temp....rain mixed with sleet and we just finished a good gust of large sized flakes, ice already on husband's windshield hood, only drizzly rain/sleet now. Will take pictures as soon as possible!/jumpforjo

I only missed it by 3 hours/carybaby Enjoy the snow/knockonwo:snow:

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:48 PM

(5:46:44 PM) nwsbot: LIX: Mccomb [Pike Co, MS] law enforcement reports SNOW of E0.0 INCH

cigtyme

12-04-2009, 05:49 PM

hope it makes it down to Houma

is wishcasting allowed for snow????

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 05:50 PM

So they waited for the snow to fall before they issued a Winter storm warning ?

nightrider

12-04-2009, 06:00 PM

Snowing heavy here now.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:01 PM

hope it makes it down to Houma

is wishcasting allowed for snow????

Sure why not it is the Holiday Season:biggrin:

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:24 PM

LIX: Jackson [East Feliciana Co, LA] public reports SNOW of E0.0 INCH at 05:35 PM CST -- mix of snow/sleet/rain reported

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:25 PM

LIX: 5 N Gulfport [Harrison Co, MS] public reports SLEET of E0.00 INCH at 06:12 PM CST -- rain and sleet mixture reported.

Joe-Nathan

12-04-2009, 06:26 PM

Sitting at the Domino's in Broussard, la. Seeing sleet mixed with fat sneaux flakes. Temp is 34. Sticking to cars buit not grass.

Man I wish they would hurry up with my pizza!!!

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:27 PM

I wouldn't be shocked if we don't start seeing those warning extended east and South

SevereWxEnthusiast

12-04-2009, 06:29 PM

WPMI TV Met Dereck Beasley is holding the line that snow will stay north of Mobile. /crazy

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:34 PM

Got a text message from a friend that says it's snowing on the LSU campus

mudhog79

12-04-2009, 06:39 PM

It is currently sleeting in St. Tammany Parish in the Madisonville Madisonville Louisiana area. Everyone be careful out driving.

Here is the most recent winter storm advisory for the area.

000
WWUS44 KLIX 050036
WSWLIX
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
636 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.A STRONG GULF LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS
AFFECTED INCLUDE THE BATON ROUGE METRO...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...THE NEW
ORLEANS...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
LAZ039-040-MSZ071-077-050845-
/O.UPG.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KLIX.WS.W.0001.091205T0300Z-091205T1200Z/
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...TYLERTOWN...PIC AYUNE
636 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND A COMPLETE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVER AREAS ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND WEST MAINLY TO
THE PEARL RIVER. PEARL RIVER COUNTY WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED IN THE
WARNING. THE MAJOR CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR A SHORT DURATION LEADING TO
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ICING CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARNING
AREA WILL BE AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALL SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND
3 AM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
&&

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:55 PM

List of MS trafffic cams to see.. http://www.mstraffic.com/

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 06:57 PM

LIX: Amite [Tangipahoa Co, LA] nws employee reports SNOW of E0.0 INCH at 06:15 PM CST -- light to moderate snow began to fall along i-55 between amite and kentwood.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:00 PM

LIX: Gulfport [Harrison Co, MS] law enforcement reports SLEET of E0.00 INCH at 06:55 PM CST -- all sleet being reported, rain has stopped. no longer a mixture

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:01 PM

LIX: Non-NWS Report -- from SpotterNetwork (unverified) @ 06:58 PM CST -- (S) Other -- -- Spotter is 1 miles SSE of Doyle, LA (Livingston county) [30.494/-90.734] -- Sleet, then changed to snow...large flakes for about 10 minutes. Started to cover the ground. Now back to sleet, but expecting a change back to all snow by 9pm CST. (SN#4485)

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:04 PM

LIX: Hammond [Tangipahoa Co, LA] law enforcement reports SLEET of E0.00 INCH at 06:55 PM CST -- sleet pellets reported by state trooper along i-12 near hammond.

nightrider

12-04-2009, 07:05 PM

They are going crazy here in Chataignier. Snow is already piling up on the ground. I will post my pictures and video on Monday.:snow:

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:08 PM

LIX: Livingston [Livingston Co, LA] trained spotter reports SNOW of E0.0 INCH at 06:58 PM CST -- moderate sleet and snow with a light accumulations on the ground.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:09 PM

Thanks for the updates ... I will be streaming in about 1 hour at chasertv.com

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:09 PM

LIX: Abita Springs [St. Tammany Co, LA] nws employee reports SLEET of E0.00 INCH at 07:05 PM CST -- rain changing over to sleet.

ROLLTIDE

12-04-2009, 07:16 PM

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HarvestMoon

12-04-2009, 07:30 PM

Stopped snowing here. Just a dusting.

dkmac

12-04-2009, 08:12 PM

Lots of sleet falling, but no snow as yet here in Covington, LA (about 5 miles N of I-12). Air temp is 34°F.

Windwatcher

12-04-2009, 08:14 PM

It's snowing in Franklinton...it might miss us, mac. Darn.

MooreStorm01

12-04-2009, 08:19 PM

500 yds south of 1-12, covington, just rain here..wwl said extending ws advisory to southshore??

dkmac

12-04-2009, 08:35 PM

It's snowing in Franklinton...it might miss us, mac. Darn.

Well, I'll get to see it in the morning. We have a 9:40AM tee time at Gemstone GC.

ced_pearlandtx

12-04-2009, 08:50 PM

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/picture.php?albumid=25&pictureid=348

The shear volume gave us just over 2" accumulation (temperature never got below 34). Kids went out and played in it, got totally muddy.