Severe Weather 12-7-09 to 12-8-09

[nightrider]

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST SAT DEC 05 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...DIGGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS TO THE EAST OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER ALASKA. THE LEAD FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE DIGGING THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM A
STRONG ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH...WILL PRECEDE
IT...MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE DAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.

COMPLEXITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTING STREAMS AND EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AND NCEP SREF/MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /ON THE ORDER OF 100+ KT AT 500
MB/ APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU BY 12Z TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN INITIALLY
COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NATION...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO QUICKLY MODIFY...LIKELY LIMITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
THAT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. EVEN
WITH ONLY WEAK CAPE PROGGED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS A
POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE COULD APPROACH COASTAL
AREAS WITH A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS. BUT...A
LINGERING STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER INLAND AREAS IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..KERR.. 12/05/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT






http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050956
SPC AC 050956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT DEC 05 2009

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUE/TUE NIGHT...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK. SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION.
BUT...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACCELERATING EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL BE PRECEDED BY
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BY THIS
TIME. ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION...COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFYING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO YIELD STRONG TO
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SHOULD BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..KERR.. 12/05/2009

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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image4.gif

[dkmac]

N.O. NWS:


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
FURTHER INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NW TEXAS AND W OK. A
STRONG 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...AND WITH
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH SPC
INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY THREATS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY.

[firemedic354]

Set up has diminished and severe weather is looking unlikely.. Looks like a more just rainy event.. heavy at times..

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SPC AC 070548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST SUN DEC 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS
IS FORECAST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THIS INCREASING FLOW FIELD WILL
OCCUR ON SRN FRINGE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED WHILE TRANSLATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY DEVELOP
ESEWD FROM SWRN CO INTO OK BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO IL/IND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 07/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST
INTENSE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
09/06Z-09/12Z...WELL AWAY FROM EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
DELINEATED BY NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING
FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE MS DELTA REGION AND WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH MS AND AL. THE ERN
EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REMNANT WEDGE FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE MORE SLUGGISHLY NWD THROUGH GA AND THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

OVERALL DEEPENING OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE
BROADENING AND INTENSIFICATION OF SWLY LLJ TUESDAY WHICH WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE THE NWD/NEWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S. HOWEVER...AS WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK LAPSE RATES /I.E. LESS THAN MOIST
ADIABATIC/ WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500-1000 J/KG FORECAST THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR AS LOW-LEVEL WAA ATTENDANT TO BROAD LLJ ACTS
ON MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/LONGEVITY WITH 45-65 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40-45 KT. THE
PRIMARY INGREDIENT LIMITING A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING MARGINAL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SETUP WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL LIKELY
SPREAD NEWD/EWD OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS ONGOING STORMS ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIR MASS.

...CAROLINAS...

EWD MIGRATION/DEVELOPMENT OF SLY LLJ WILL HASTEN THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND EVENTUALLY ERN GULF OF MEXICO
BASIN IN WAKE OF RETREATING WEDGE FRONT. WHILE THE GREATER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF
THE GULF STREAM...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED NOCTURNAL
STORMS WITHIN STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. GIVEN THE STRONG...AMBIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST...AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 12/07/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/KWNSPTSDY2_200912070700.txt) PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/utctime.js"></script> CURRENT UTC TIME: 1335Z (7:35AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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[ROLLTIDE]

Mobile


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WITH A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LACKING TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY WERE TO
MATERIALIZE... THE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM AS ANY INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

[Jason Moreland]

This is another storm system that had a lot of tornadic potential, but there's just not enough instability. We may see a couple stray tornadoes, mainly across MS, but the primary threat will be damaging winds.

[ROLLTIDE]

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[Stormlover]

for HSV's area:

GIVEN THE STRENGTH
THOUGH OF THE SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GRADIENT FLOW MAY STILL RESULT IN
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC.

[dkmac]

From N.O. NWS:


NUMEROUS UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE VERY STRONG
WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN. A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH AND REFORM TO THE NORTH TODAY....BUT THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY RETARD
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG /EF2 OR GREATER/.

[nightrider]

This not going to be a squall line event?

[ROLLTIDE]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
MODELS AND OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONSISTENT IN LIFTING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN/CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LIFT ACROSS
THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TODAY...BEFORE UNDERGOING
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING INTO LAKE MI AND VICINITY OVERNIGHT. BROAD
WARM SECTOR WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME DEFINED OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH
STRONG WARMING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER REMAINS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. REGARDLESS...SHEAR WILL BECOME SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE WHOLE
REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT VALUES OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WHICH
POSES A THREAT OF VERY ORGANIZED MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/LINES.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY A SMALL AREA ALONG THE
LA COAST EXPERIENCING MARINE INFLUX...WITH BROAD AREA OF LEADING
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INHIBITING NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE EARLY
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ENEWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THE MORNING AND BEGIN TO ALLOW EROSION OF COASTAL FRONT AS
STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT NWD INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEAR 50F DEW POINTS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
RELATIVELY LOW-CAPE BUT HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT DEPENDENT UPON QUALITY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GENERAL EROSION OF CAP BY LATE
TODAY COINCIDENT WITH GENERAL VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS
SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL TO THE NW.

EXPECT INCREASE IN TSTMS...SOME ROTATING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
LOW-TOPPED...FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES SHOULD EVOLVE
FROM PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHICH
WILL SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
TEND TO LOWER CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE FORECASTS ATTM. ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FROM LOW-TOPPED...STRONGLY-FORCED LINE OF
MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA...
OVERALL TRANSITION TO SSWLY FLOW FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
EWD DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW MODIFIED BOUNDARY
LAYER TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE GREATER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTS...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED NOCTURNAL STORMS WITHIN
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME...ESPECIALLY INVOF AND EAST OF COASTAL
FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG...OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AT BEST WITH NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITY THREATS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS.. 12/08/2009
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081543Z - 081745Z

ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THREAT FOR HAIL
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL INCREASING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND EWD ACROSS NRN LA...WITH ZONE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
INTENSE UPPER JET ACROSS THE SWRN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
RESULTING ASCENT -- QUITE EVIDENT IN LATEST WV LOOP ACROSS SRN AND
ERN OK/NERN TX/AR/NRN LA -- COMBINED WITH MODEST BUT INCREASING CAPE
ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED EXPANSION
AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION.

WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION...THREAT FOR HAIL
IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS SHOULD BECOME A CONCERN IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS.. 12/08/2009


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

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Jackson,MS



XUS64 KJAN 081619 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS HAS TAKEN SHAPE NICELY
THIS MORNING WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING...EVIDENT BY THE 60
DEGREE DEW POINT AT MCCOMB AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING S/WV AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE...WITH GFS/12Z SHOWING MUCAPE 750-900J/KG AREAWIDE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 700J/KG OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR 60-70KT...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35KTS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH FOR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS SITUATION WELL...ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS ALL ZONES WEST OF A
MIDWAY TO BELZONI TO SHELBY LINE. ALSO MADE SLIGHT INCREASE TO HIGH
TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST WARMING TRENDS. STILL
EXPECTING MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 75 SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATES ARE POSTED. /BK/


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Back to 10%


<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="670"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Dec 8, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Updated: Tue Dec 8 16:23:16 UTC 2009</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv_Otlk_Change_20060214.html) (Effective Feb 14, 2006).</td></tr> </tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody> <tr nowrap="" align="center"> </tr> <tr> <th>Categorical Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20091208_1630_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Tornado Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1probotlk_20091208_1630_torn_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/tornado_legend.png </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1probotlk_20091208_1630_wind_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/wind_legend.png </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1probotlk_20091208_1630_hail_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/hail_legend.png </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
SPC AC 081620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

POWERFUL S/WV AND ASSOCIATED 150KT POLAR JET WILL RAPIDLY TRAVERSE
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD MOVING FROM CURRENT LOCATION
SRN ROCKIES TO OH VALLEY BY WED AM. THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG ASCENT AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AIR MASS STILL REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPGRADING THE RISK
OVER SRN MS VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO
50PLUS KT THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPID PRES FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS LWR MO VALLEY...NOW EXPECT AT LEAST MID 60S
DEWPOINTS TO MOVE INLAND TO AT LEAST CENTRAL MS/AL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

40-50KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR COUPLED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
HODOGRAPHS WITH APPROACH OF THE INTENSE S/W AND ITS JET MAX WILL
PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000
J/KG IN WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES...MOST LIKELY IN THE ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND SRN MS AND INTO
SRN AL BY THIS EVENING...BUT WITHHOLD UPGRADING THE RISK.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA...
OVERALL TRANSITION TO SSWLY FLOW FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
EWD DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW MODIFIED BOUNDARY
LAYER TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE GREATER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTS...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED NOCTURNAL STORMS WITHIN
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME...ESPECIALLY INVOF AND EAST OF COASTAL
FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG...OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AT BEST WITH NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITY THREATS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..HALES.. 12/08/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/KWNSPTSDY1_200912081630.txt) PRODUCT
</pre>

[nightrider]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lch/graphicast/image1.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LA INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081812Z - 081945Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY REGION. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG ASCENT -- HIGHLIGHTED
BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS FROM MO SWD INTO LA ATTM -- CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL CONUS.

MOST OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ATTM FROM NRN LA
NWD...WHERE A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS.
HOWEVER...MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD
WITHIN STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY INVOF ERN OK/WRN AR
AND VICINITY. AS MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING CONTINUES...SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION -- NOW SHOWING INITIAL SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN LA
-- SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

AREA VWPS REVEAL LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS WHICH VEER/INCREASE QUICKLY
WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS. AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIME...AND AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL SLOWLY
INCREASES...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY -- INITIALLY
OVER PARTS OF LA AND INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MS.

..GOSS.. 12/08/2009


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2215.gif

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 SLGT risk http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20091208_2000.html

[ROLLTIDE]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...APPROACH OF POWERFUL UPPER JET AND S/WV TROUGH
RESULTING IN RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER MS
VALLEY AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD ACROSS WATCH AREA.
WITH STRONG...VEERING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES IN WARM
SECTOR TO 1000 J/KG...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
RAMP UP REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0796_radar.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

About to head out


<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="670"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Dec 8, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Updated: Tue Dec 8 19:32:26 UTC 2009</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv_Otlk_Change_20060214.html) (Effective Feb 14, 2006).</td></tr> </tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody> <tr nowrap="" align="center"> </tr> <tr> <th>Categorical Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20091208_2000_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Tornado Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1probotlk_20091208_2000_torn_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/tornado_legend.png </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1probotlk_20091208_2000_wind_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/wind_legend.png </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1probotlk_20091208_2000_hail_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/hail_legend.png </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
SPC AC 081929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA TO WCNTRL GA...

...GULF STATES...

MOISTURE IS INCREASING MARKEDLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AS
WARM FRONT SURGES INLAND AHEAD OF POWERFUL...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT HAS RETURNED TO
SERN AR...ARCING SEWD ACROSS NERN LA INTO SRN MS WITH UPPER 60S SFC
DEW POINTS COMMON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOW
WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE SURGE BUT OVERALL HAVE A GENERAL HANDLE ON
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS RAPIDLY SPREADING EAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL AR...SWWD INTO SERN TX. WARM SECTOR WINDS HAVE VEERED
CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT WITH PRIMARY FORCING AIDING A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH-EAST OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT. DURING THE LAST HOUR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WIND SHIFT OVER NWRN LA AND ECNTRL TX. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY
SKIRT THE NRN EDGE OF MODEST INSTABILITY PLUME. ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW
HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT...STRONG SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE IT APPEARS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION.

..DARROW.. 12/08/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2009/

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

POWERFUL S/WV AND ASSOCIATED 150KT POLAR JET WILL RAPIDLY TRAVERSE
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD MOVING FROM CURRENT LOCATION
SRN ROCKIES TO OH VALLEY BY WED AM. THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG ASCENT AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AIR MASS STILL REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPGRADING THE RISK
OVER SRN MS VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO
50PLUS KT THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPID PRES FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS LWR MO VALLEY...NOW EXPECT AT LEAST MID 60S
DEWPOINTS TO MOVE INLAND TO AT LEAST CENTRAL MS/AL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

40-50KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR COUPLED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
HODOGRAPHS WITH APPROACH OF THE INTENSE S/W AND ITS JET MAX WILL
PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000
J/KG IN WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES...MOST LIKELY IN THE ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND SRN MS AND INTO
SRN AL BY THIS EVENING...BUT WITHHOLD UPGRADING THE RISK.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA...
OVERALL TRANSITION TO SSWLY FLOW FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
EWD DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW MODIFIED BOUNDARY
LAYER TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE GREATER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTS...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED NOCTURNAL STORMS WITHIN
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME...ESPECIALLY INVOF AND EAST OF COASTAL
FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG...OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AT BEST WITH NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITY THREATS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/KWNSPTSDY1_200912082000.txt) PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

Jackson , MS



95
FXUS64 KJAN 082021
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
221 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)...FOCUS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE FULLY ENGULFED THE ARKLAMISS TO START THE
PERIOD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
GREENWOOD BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GFS/12Z SHOWING MUCAPE 750-900J/KG
AREAWIDE AND SBCAPE INCREASING TO 700J/KG+ OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE AREA WILL ALSO BE
ENTERING ENHANCED DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/WV
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINED WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 60-70KT/LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35KTS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A TORNADO WATCH FOR AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER AS THESE CELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CONSIDERING THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE CWA FILTERING IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT..AS WELL AS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.

</pre>

[firemedic354]

http://stfpd11.org/media/floodaa/edgewooddrslidellla.JPG

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<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ZLt6NDvaHt4&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ZLt6NDvaHt4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[ROLLTIDE]

Watch out Bham


DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A SIGNIFICANT NIGHTTIME SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

[ROLLTIDE]

Jackson,MS



.NOW...
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE ORIENTATED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WEST MISSISSIPPI
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. RAINFALL RATES ALONG THESE THUNDERSTORM
BANDS WILL BE HEAVY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR. OUTSIDE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING ABOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

</pre>

[nightrider]

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09120818_OBS/LCH.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2217.html

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS THROUGH NWRN AL AND A SMALL PART OF SRN
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082312Z - 090015Z

NRN MS THROUGH NWRN AL AND THE SRN PART OF MIDDLE TN ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SOON FOR THIS AREA.

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO 70+ KT EAST AND SE OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
MIGRATING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WITH TIME ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL-SE MS INTO SWRN AL. NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORMS CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN
MS AND NWRN AL ARE PROBABLY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL
LIKELY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 AND STRONG BULK SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 12/08/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2217.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN update



SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

MSZ025>033-035>039-042>051-053>056-059>063-090030-
ADAMS-ATTALA-CARROLL-CHOCTAW-CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COPIAH-FRANKLIN MS-
GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-JEFFERSON-KEMPER-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-
LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON MS-MONTGOMERY-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-SCOTT-SIMPSON-SMITH-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINSTON-YAZOO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ACKERMAN...BELZONI...BRANDON...
BROOKHAVEN...CANTON...CARROLLTON...CARTHAGE...COLU MBUS...DE KALB...
DECATUR...EUPORA...FAYETTE...FOREST...GREENWOOD... GRENADA...
HAZLEHURST...JACKSON...KOSCIUSKO...LEXINGTON...LOU ISVILLE...MACON...
MEADVILLE...MENDENHALL...MONTICELLO...NATCHEZ...PH ILADELPHIA...
PORT GIBSON...RALEIGH...STARKVILLE...VICKSBURG...WEST POINT...
WINONA...YAZOO CITY
528 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.NOW...
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE ORIENTATED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WEST MISSISSIPPI
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. RAINFALL RATES ALONG THESE THUNDERSTORM
BANDS WILL BE HEAVY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR. OUTSIDE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING ABOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Rankin, Simpson, Smith [MS] till 6:30 PM CST ...* AT 539 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR UNION MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image1.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Copiah, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Simpson [MS] till 6:45 PM CST ...* AT 549 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OMA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Rankin, Simpson, Smith [MS] till 6:30 PM CST ...AT 551 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR D'LO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2218.html

[ROLLTIDE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL AND WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082355Z - 090130Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR ERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL
AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 796.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN AL NWWD INTO CNTRL MS WHERE IT
INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH NRN LA AND SERN
TX. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S IN WARM SECTOR AND
NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND EXPAND RAPIDLY NEWD. GIVEN THE
LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE BROAD 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS BECOME
SURFACE BASED.

..DIAL.. 12/08/2009
</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2218.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Copiah, Simpson [MS] till 6:45 PM CST ...AT 557 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHIVERS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 797...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

CORRECTED FOR ENDING TIME; 06Z NOT 08Z

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 796 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0796.html)...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NE
ALONG IN TWO SEPARATE SW/NE BANDS ACROSS NRN MS THROUGH LATE EVE.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WARM/MOISTEN INVOF THE
BANDS...AND WITH DEEP SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT BOTH LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 02-06Z AS OK/AR UPR VORT APPROACHES REGION...
SETUP MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.
THESE MAY YIELD A FEW TORNADOES AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG
WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23055.


</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0797_radar.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Simpson [MS] till 6:45 PM CST ...AT 607 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PINOLA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

SPC issues TORNADO watch till 08:00Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0798.html

[ROLLTIDE]

OUS64 KWNS 090009
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

TORNADO WATCH 798 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC007-009-023-025-047-057-063-065-073-075-091-093-105-107-117-
119-125-127-129-131-133-090800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0798.091209T0015Z-091209T0800Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB BLOUNT CHOCTAW
CLARKE DALLAS FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARENGO MARION
PERRY PICKENS SHELBY
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON


MSC023-025-031-035-041-061-065-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-101-
103-105-111-129-153-090800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0798.091209T0015Z-091209T0800Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON
FORREST GREENE JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LOWNDES
MARION NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PERRY
SMITH WAYNE


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Simpson, Smith [MS] till 6:30 PM CST ...AT 611 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE OAK MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

MOB issues Tornado Watch for Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox [AL] and Greene, Perry, Wayne [MS] till Dec 09, 2:00 AM CST

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN cancels Tornado Warning for Simpson [MS]

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN: Yazoo City [Yazoo Co, MS] emergency mngr reports FLASH FLOOD at 04:50 PM CST -- a few rds were flooded with traffic being diverted

[ROLLTIDE]

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 SLGT risk http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20091209_0100.html

[ROLLTIDE]

AN issues Tornado Warning for Lauderdale, Newton [MS] till 7:45 PM CST ...* AT 702 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAWRENCE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Lauderdale, Newton [MS] till 7:45 PM CST ...AT 707 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWTON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS TORNADO IS HEADED TOWARD DOWNTOWN NEWTON AND CONTINUE INTO RURAL NEWTON AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Lauderdale, Newton [MS] till 7:45 PM CST ...AT 719 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUFFEE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEWTON COUNTY FROM SMITH COUNTY. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO QUICKLY.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Kemper [MS] till 8:15 PM CST ...* AT 733 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRISMATIC MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Kemper, Lauderdale, Newton [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...* AT 745 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUFFEE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Kemper [MS] till 8:15 PM CST ...AT 748 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK GROVE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

From Dr Tim Coleman


Severe weather situation – 8 pm (http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=25047)

December 8, 2009, 7:48 pm | Dr. Tim Coleman (timbhm@msn.com) | Forecast Discussion (http://www.alabamawx.com/?cat=2)
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/ttd.gif (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/ttd.gif)
This map, with the colors showing dewpoint, shows a sharp warm front moving NE through central Alabama tonight. Dewpoints are already in the low 60s in central AL, with upper 60s in south MS moving this way. The flow is very strong out of the SW, and will get even stronger as the big low to our NW strengthens and moves east over the next few hours. The RUC model expects 850 mb (4,000 feet) winds to increase to 60 to 80 knots (around 80 mph) late this evening, meaning fast-moving storms.
As you can see in the chart of dewpoints above, the most humid air is still over southern MS, but is rapidly approaching west Alabama. This event will not have much unstable air, but with so much wind shear it may not matter. One thing that concerns me is the presence of the warm front over central Alabama…sometimes these fronts can produce additional rotation in storms near them.
With tornado warnings arleady in eastern MS, we could see tornado warnings in west Alabama in the next hour. It looks like the main threat here in BHM will be from 10 pm to 2 am. Take a look at RUC model instability (CAPE) and helicity (shear for storm rotation) at midnight CST.
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/06z.PNG (http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/06z.PNG)
The CAPE is only 500-1,000 J/kg, modest at best but enough to produce strong storms in a high-shear environment. The helicity is 500-1,000 m2/s2 over most of north and central Alabama, meaning any storms that manage to survive the wind shear will rotate, so a few tornadoes are likely.
As the storms form into a squall line late tonight, and even before, storm downdrafts may bring down some of that air just above the surface moving at 80 mph, so expect wind damage, including trees and power lines down.
With the speed the storms are moving, if a tornado warning is issued, don’t wait around. Go to shelter immediately. Make sure your family is prepared with a tornado plan now. Put helmets on the kids, go to the lowest floor or basement (if available), get near the center, away from outside walls or windows or doors, and get under something sturdy (pool table, desk, etc.) if you have one. Keep your NOAA Weather Radio turned on when you go to bed.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Kemper, Lauderdale [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...AT 809 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PRISMATIC MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Kemper, Lauderdale [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...AT 810 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PRISMATIC MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN: 3 Se Decatur [Newton Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:15 PM CST -- two trees were down along chapel hill rd...just past cumberland rd.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake, Madison [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...* AT 814 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHARON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake, Madison [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...AT 822 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMDEN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...AT 828 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THOMASTOWN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

SPC issues TORNADO watch till 08:00Z, new watch replaces WW 796 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0799.html

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...AT 832 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SINGLETON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake [MS] till 8:45 PM CST ...AT 835 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SINGLETON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake, Neshoba, Winston [MS] till 9:15 PM CST ...* AT 841 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RENFROE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Attala, Leake, Neshoba, Winston [MS] till 9:15 PM CST ...AT 849 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF BURNSIDE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Neshoba, Winston [MS] till 9:15 PM CST ...AT 853 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF STALLO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

[Athensman]

9 Ese Littleville [Franklin Co, AL] emergency mngr reports FLASH FLOOD at 08:15 PM CST -- water was reported over county line road.

[Athensman]

4 E Hartselle [Morgan Co, AL] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 08:30 PM CST -- mt tabor road was flooded near the al hwy 36 intersection.

[Athensman]

HUN continues Flash Flood Warning for Cullman, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Morgan [AL] till 11:15 PM CST

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Neshoba, Winston [MS] till 9:15 PM CST ...AT 901 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF STALLO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN continues Tornado Warning for Winston [MS] till 9:15 PM CST ...AT 907 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NOXAPATER MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

JAN issues Tornado Warning for Noxubee, Winston [MS] till 9:45 PM CST ...* AT 913 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VERNON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
919 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PICKENSVILLE...GORDO...CARROLLTON...
ALICEVILLE...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CST

* AT 917 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MEMPHIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MEMPHIS BY 930 PM CST...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PICKENSVILLE BY 935 PM CST...
MCMULLEN...GARDEN AND ALICEVILLE BY 940 PM CST...
CARROLLTON AND 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BENEVOLA BY 950 PM CST...
GORDO BY 1000 PM CST...

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:00 PM CST ...AT 927 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MEMPHIS...OR 10 MILES WEST OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ARE IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:00 PM CST ...AT 937 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCMULLEN...OR NEAR ALICEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX issues Tornado Warning for Pickens, Tuscaloosa [AL] till 10:30 PM CST ...* AT 943 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:00 PM CST ...AT 945 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORDO...OR NEAR CARROLLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2222.html

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX issues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:15 PM CST ...* AT 950 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ETHELSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:00 PM CST ...AT 954 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORDO... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Tuscaloosa [AL] till 10:30 PM CST ...AT 959 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELROD...OR 8 MILES EAST OF GORDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:15 PM CST ...AT 1000 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCSHAN...OR 9 MILES WEST OF REFORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Pickens [AL] till 10:15 PM CST ...AT 1011 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHAW...OR NEAR REFORM... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX: Hamilton [Marion Co, AL] trained spotter reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 10:05 PM CST -- tree down county road 42 and sunrise. gradient wind related

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX: Echola [Tuscaloosa Co, AL] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:05 PM CST -- trees and powerlines reported down sipsey valley rd - eastward across hwy 171 - eastward to lake tuscaloosa. possible tornado

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX: Hueytown [Jefferson Co, AL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:28 PM CST -- trees down near forest rd

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX: Pleasant Grove [St. Clair Co, AL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:30 PM CST -- powerlines down on 4th st

[ROLLTIDE]

SPC issues TORNADO watch till 12:00Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0800.html

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX issues Tornado Warning for Blount, Etowah, St. Clair [AL] till 11:45 PM CST ...* AT 1112 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ALLGOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX continues Tornado Warning for Etowah, St. Clair [AL] till 11:45 PM CST ...AT 1125 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GALLANT...OR 12 MILES WEST OF RAINBOW CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX: Jasper [Walker Co, AL] public reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 09:00 PM CST -- trees down east ridgewood road

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX: Vernon [Lamar Co, AL] emergency mngr reports FLASH FLOOD at 08:38 PM CST -- alabama highway 17 and highway 18 closed in downtown vernon due to flash flooding...highway 17 has water up to the hood of cars.

[ROLLTIDE]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ABBEVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE...
GREENWOOD COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENWOOD...
SOUTHERN LAURENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 600 AM EST

* AT 517 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ABBEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COKESBURY...HODGES AND GREENWOOD...
CORONACA...LAKE GREENWOOD AND NINETY SIX...
CROSS HILL...WATERLOO AND DYSON...

[ROLLTIDE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
PORTIONS OF THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL 900 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MACON GEORGIA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 800 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0800.html). WATCH NUMBER 800 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
430 AM EST. CONTINUE...WW 801 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0801.html)...

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD AT 55 TO 65 KT
FROM AL INTO GA. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED INTO SMALL LINES AND GIVEN
THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND RAPID MOTION OF STORMS...WIND
DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25055.


...IMY
</pre>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0802_radar.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA
SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 615 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ORANGEBURG
SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 801 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0801.html)...WW 802 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0802.html)...

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EWD AT 55 TO 65 MPH ACROSS
EXTREME ERN GA AND SC EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FAST MOTION OF THE
LINE COMBINED WITH STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND
DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AND
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL SC SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25055.


</pre>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0803_radar.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
..SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BROUGHT A DEEP FLOW OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG…FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM…AND
PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF UP
TO 50 MPH CAUSED SOME TREES TO FALL BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS EVER
ARRIVED. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA REPORTED DAMAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHILE MANY COUNTIES
RECEIVED SOME MINOR DAMAGE FROM THE GRADIENT WINDS.
HERE ARE SOME OF THE ESTIMATED PEAK WIND GUSTS RECORDED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA:
LOCATION PEAK WIND GUST (MPH)
BIRMINGHAM AP (JEFFERSON CO) 53
DOWNTOWN BIRMINGHAM (JEFFERSON CO) 60
ANNISTON (CALHOUN CO) 40
TUSCALOOSA AP (TUSCALOOSA CO) 43
DOWNTOWN TUSCALOOSA (TUSCALOOSA CO) 53
SHELBY CO AP (SHELBY CO) 45
MT CHEAHA (CLEBURNE CO) 50
CLANTON (CHILTON CO) 32
DEMOPOLIS (MARENGO CO) 48
GADSDEN (ETOWAH CO) 40
HAMILTON (MARION CO) 40
INVERNESS (SHELBY CO) 44
MONTEVALLO (SHELBY CO) 61
OPELIKA (LEE CO) 46
ARLEY (WINSTON CO) 51
HALEYVILLE (WINSTON CO) 33
ALABASTER (SHELBY CO) 48
ADDITIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE DAY…AS SURVEYS TEAMS REPORT BACK THEIR FINDINGS. AT
THIS TIME…SURVEY TEAMS ARE ENROUTE TO PICKENS AND TUSCALOOSA
COUNTIES.
A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION TO THE SUCCESS OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
PROGRAM IS THE RECEIPT OF STORM REPORTS FROM ALL OUR CUSTOMERS AND
PARTNERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IF YOU WITNESSED OR ARE AWARE OF
ANY STORM DAMAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS OR TORNADOES…PLEASE CONTACT
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE…OR CALL OUR STORM REPORTING
HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758.
–FORECASTER LINHARES

[ROLLTIDE]

Still wondering why Jason didn't punch that storm last night :)

[ROLLTIDE]

PAC121-091800-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-091209T1800Z/
VENANGO PA-
1243 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST FOR VENANGO
COUNTY...

AT 1242 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OIL CREEK STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OIL
CREEK STATE PARK... OIL CITY...

[ROLLTIDE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1228 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MONTICELLO...
NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN THOMAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EST

* AT 1227 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO...OR 14 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO BY 1255 PM EST

[Stormlover]

Had about 5 inches of rain up here with widepread flooding.

[ROLLTIDE]

I intercepted storms last night around Meridian,MS I will post some pics and video later today.

[Stormlover]

Don’t hear this everyday:
0100 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 S SOMERVILLE 34.46N 86.80W
12/09/2009 MORGAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A CAR WAS SWEPT OFF THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CUT
OFF RD AND OLD SIX MILE RD. SUBSEQUENTLY...A RESCUE SQUAD
BOAT WRECKED AND THE WOULD BE RESCUERS WERE TRAPPED IN A
TREE.

[ROLLTIDE]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

GAC051-103-SCC053-091915-
/O.CON.KCHS.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-091209T1915Z/
EFFINGHAM GA-CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC-
153 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL JASPER...NORTHWESTERN CHATHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 151 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MEINHARD...OR
ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

AT AROUND 148 PM EST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR
BLOOMINGDALE.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
BLOOMINGDALE...MEINHARD...MONTEITH...PORT WENTWORTH...HARDEEVILLE AND
PURYSBURGH.