5/18/10-5/19/10 Plains Severe Weather

[ROLLTIDE]

Moderate risk already issued

[Joe-Nathan]

Going to be a busy day b/w Lubbock and Amarillo.

[wxchaser420]

Dryline Magic

[wxchaser420]

One of those times I wished I still lived in Colorado: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0185.html


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
COLLINS COLORADO TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE.
WITH HEATING THE AIR MASS IS NOW MDTLY UNSTABLE...MLCAPES TO 1200
J/KG. MOST FAVORED AREAS INITIALLY FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
N OF PALMER DIVIDE. SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THRU
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES.

Still, Plains chasers are a dime a dozen. It takes little to no skill or knowledge of radar interpretation, equipment or storm structure to be successful there. The only key ingredient is nuts. The south is where the battles are really intense. I believe im the only chaser in North, MS. Rolling hills and trees, 70+Mph storm motions and invisible-visibility make this a challenge. I could eat this set up alive if I was out there.

[ROLLTIDE]

End of the week magic for us ?


Dr. Greg Forbes (http://www.facebook.com/twcdrforbes) FRIDAY. Isolated severe thunderstorms and a low chance of a tornado or two in southeast IL, southwest IN, west and central KY, central and east TN, AL, northwest GA, east and south MS, central and south LA.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player-full.pl?username=chris.rice&uid=107

[ROLLTIDE]

...

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Updated: Wed May 19 16:36:15 UTC 2010 (Print Version (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630_prt.html))</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html)</td></tr> <tr><th colspan="2" class="urgent" align="center" valign="top"> Public Severe Weather Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html)</th></tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left" valign="top"> The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains this afternoon and tonight.... Please read (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html) the latest public statement about this event.
</td> </tr> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript"> function show_tab(nam) { document.getElementById("TABday1otlk_1630_cat").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TABday1probotlk_1630_torn").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TABday1probotlk_1630_hail").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TABday1probotlk_1630_wind").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById(nam).style.display = "block"; } </script> </tbody></table><table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" width="6" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Categorical (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="10" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Tornado (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html)) </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="10" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Hail (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html)) </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="10" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Wind (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html)) </td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" width="6" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" bgcolor="#003399" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of damging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td> Forecast Discussion</td></tr> </tbody></table>
SPC AC 191630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/KWNSPTSDY1_201005191630.txt) PRODUCT
</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

PDS


<zz>Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 190</zz><noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0189.html) </td> </tr> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript"> function show_tab(nam) { document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Main").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Test").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_WOU").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Prob").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_SAW").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Warn").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Radar_Init").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById(nam).style.display = "block"; } </script> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0190.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0190.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css"> td.off { background:#91b8ff; } td.on { background:#003399; } .wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:link { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:visited { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:active { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:hover { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:link { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:visited { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:active { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:hover { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } .wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #fff999; } .wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff9900; } .wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff0000; } .wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff00ff; } </style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0190.html).

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INVOF
SLOWLY RETREATING W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN W CNTRL OK. OTHER STORMS
ALSO MAY FORM A BIT LATER NEAR INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
CONFLUENCE LINE IN CNTRL OK...AND IN MORE STRONGLY HEATED
ENVIRONMENT NEAR WARM FRONT IN SE OK /REF MCD 623/.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED LOW LVL
DESTABILIZATION...AND EVENTUAL ONSET OF MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT WITH
UPR IMPULSE NOW IN THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SUPERCELLS. ONE OR TWO OF THESE MAY
BECOME LONG-LIVED...AND YIELD A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES...AS THEY
INTERACT WITH BACKED LOW LVL FLOW NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR WARM
FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...CORFIDI
</pre>
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

[ROLLTIDE]

http://stormchasertv.com/

[ROLLTIDE]

...


Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194<noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0193.html) </td> </tr> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript"> function show_tab(nam) { document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Main").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Test").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_WOU").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Prob").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_SAW").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Warn").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Radar_Init").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById(nam).style.display = "block"; } </script> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0194.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0194.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css"> td.off { background:#91b8ff; } td.on { background:#003399; } .wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:link { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:visited { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:active { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:hover { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:link { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:visited { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:active { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:hover { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } .wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #fff999; } .wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff9900; } .wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff0000; } .wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff00ff; } </style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> <td class="wwprb-verylow">Very Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0194.html).

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH THE REGION. THE AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS IS
QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH
COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. WHILE A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


</pre>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">May 20, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Updated: Thu May 20 16:28:24 UTC 2010 (Print Version (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630_prt.html))</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html)</td></tr> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript"> function show_tab(nam) { document.getElementById("TABday1otlk_1630_cat").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TABday1probotlk_1630_torn").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TABday1probotlk_1630_hail").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TABday1probotlk_1630_wind").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById(nam).style.display = "block"; } </script> </tbody></table><table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" width="6" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Categorical (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="10" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Tornado (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html)) </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="10" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Hail (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html)) </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="10" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" width="71" height="25">Wind (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html)) </td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" width="6" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" bgcolor="#003399" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of damging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td> Forecast Discussion</td></tr> </tbody></table>
SPC AC 201626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/E TX INTO THE LWR MS
AND LWR TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
KS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE INTO IA AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS
PERIOD AS LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT NE PACIFIC TROUGH
SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS. AT THE SFC...SE KS SFC LOW SHOULD
SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO WRN MO LATER TODAY AND TO NEAR STL
EARLY FRI. WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE
NE ACROSS THE TN VLY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SE
ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AND CNTRL/ERN TX.

...CNTRL/E TX INTO THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS THIS AFTN AND EVE...
COLD FRONT IN CNTRL TX...AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM
NE TX ACROSS NRN LA INTO ERN AR WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
ENHANCED STORMS TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY CONCENTRATE A BIT FARTHER E
ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IN ERN MS/WRN AR AND WRN TN/WRN KY.

SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER
ERN OK/NE TX...ROTATING EWD AROUND BASE OF KS UPR LOW. THE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE DAY...FURTHERING LOW LVL
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT IN LA/MS/TN/KY. COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STG SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL TX ENE
INTO CNTRL/NRN MS. COUPLED WITH 40-50KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...EXPECT
THAT SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SVR...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT FROM BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED MULTICELLS. AND...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULES OUT FARTHER N/NE
INTO WRN TN AND WRN KY...WHERE BACKED LOW LVL FLOW WILL EXIST INVOF
WARM FRONT.

WHILE MOST OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...ISOLD SVR
STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT FROM E TX INTO CNTRL MS.

...ERN KS/WRN MO THIS AFTN...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES IN
THIS REGION AS UPR LOW MOVES IN TANDEM WITH SFC LOW. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING...COOLING/ASCENT WITH UPR SYSTEM AND LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND/OR SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NE INTO MO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCTD DIURNAL STORMS. BACKED LOW
LVL FLOW MAY YIELD A LOW TORNADO THREAT...BUT CLOUDINESS LIKELY WILL
LIMIT OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL.

...ERN MT THIS AFTN AND EVE...
SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN ALONG LEE TROUGH IN ERN MT...WHERE
HEATING WILL BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPR
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST...COMBINATION OF
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... STRENGTHENING/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELD...AND ASCENT WITH TROUGH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
STG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 05/20/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/KWNSPTSDY1_201005201630.txt) PRODUCT

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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Mesoscale Discussion 634</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0633.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0634.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201716Z - 201815Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
SSW-NNE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM GWO TO NE OF UOX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING IS OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF A SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION TO PERSISTENT
TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CONFLUENCE ZONE /WHICH
ACTUALLY EXTENDS AT LEAST TO NE OF MKL/...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARER TO
THE MS RIVER ALONG A DEEPER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING NEWD THROUGH AR.

EXPECT AIR MASS TO CONTINUE MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING FROM THE
S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
CURRENT MEMPHIS TN AND COLUMBUS MS VWPS INDICATE THAT A CORRIDOR OF
LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RESIDES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE. AS SUCH...THE SETUP MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2010


ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
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evere Thunderstorm Watch 196<noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195.html) </td> </tr> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript"> function show_tab(nam) { document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Main").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Test").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_WOU").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Prob").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_SAW").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Warn").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Radar_Init").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById(nam).style.display = "block"; } </script> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0196.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0196.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css"> td.off { background:#91b8ff; } td.on { background:#003399; } .wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:link { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:visited { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:active { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:hover { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:link { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:visited { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:active { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:hover { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } .wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #fff999; } .wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff9900; } .wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff0000; } .wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff00ff; } </style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> <td class="wwprb-verylow">Very Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0196.html).

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ALABAMA
FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 194 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194.html)...WW 195 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195.html)...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND DEEPER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER. THE COMBINATION OF A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS AND AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

evere Thunderstorm Watch 196</pre><noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195.html) </td> </tr> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript"> function show_tab(nam) { document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Main").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Test").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_WOU").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Prob").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_SAW").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Warn").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById("TAB_WW_Radar_Init").style.display= "none"; document.getElementById(nam).style.display = "block"; } </script> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0196.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0196.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css"> td.off { background:#91b8ff; } td.on { background:#003399; } .wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:link { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:visited { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:active { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.wblack:hover { color: #000000; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:link { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:visited { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:active { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; } A.awhite:hover { color: #ffffff; font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; } .wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #fff999; } .wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff9900; } .wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff0000; } .wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: #ff00ff; } </style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> <td class="wwprb-verylow">Very Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0196.html).

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ALABAMA
FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 194 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194.html)...WW 195 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195.html)...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND DEEPER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER. THE COMBINATION OF A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS AND AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...MEAD
</pre>
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

...MEAD
</pre>
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

[ROLLTIDE]

...


<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">cale Discussion 644</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0643.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0644.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS/NORTH CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 211335Z - 211500Z

NARROW BAND OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD E/ESEWD FROM NERN
MS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM AROUND BHM TO ANB.

COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN REGENERATION OF
CONVECTION FROM WEST OF CBM TO WEST BHM. THE LEADING STORM IN THIS
BAND...IN WALKER AND APPROACHING JEFFERSON COUNTY AL...HAS A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS LAYING DOWN A BOUNDARY FOR
CONVECTION TO REGENERATE BEHIND IT. DESPITE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...LEADING STORM IS MOVING ESEWD AT 25-30 KT AND CERTAINLY HAS
A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM IS THE TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE
MOIST...PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND STRONG THETA ADVECTION
BETWEEN 900-700 MB SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

..IMY.. 05/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33398740 33508820 33578879 33808905 34068882 34038734
34048659 33838568 33328564 33118613 33248673 33398740

</pre></td></tr></tbody></table>

[ROLLTIDE]

....


<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Mesoscale Discussion 645</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0644.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0645.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL EWD INTO CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211446Z - 211545Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
AL ESEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL GA LATER THIS MORNING.

A SMALL BOW ECHO WAS LOCATED IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AL AND WAS MOVING
ESEWD AT 25-30 KT. THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM ALONG WITH 30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INHIBITING THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD 80 DEGREES AND DESTABILIZES
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STORM UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INTENSIFY.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY. WIND
DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM BHM TO AUO TO MCN SHOULD HELP TO
DRIVE THE STORMS MORE SEWD WITH TIME.

..IMY.. 05/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31498431 31808530 32248612 32758655 33318603 33558555
33488456 33098361 32018267 31428312 31498431

</pre></td></tr></tbody></table>