4/11/11 Deep South Severe threat

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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Updated: Mon Apr 11 12:31:45 UTC 2011 (Print Version (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300_prt.html))</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html)</td></tr> </tbody></table><table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25" width="147">Categorical (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25" width="147">Tornado (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html))</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25" width="147">Hail (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html))</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25" width="147">Wind (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif) (more info (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html))</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" bgcolor="#003399" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="586"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="582"> <tbody> <tr><td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td> Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr></tbody> </table>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td> Forecast Discussion</td></tr> </tbody></table>
SPC AC 111228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING ACROSS TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. A REMNANT
LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO WESTERN
KY AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO OH. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OCCURS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY FROM NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO TN/MS/AL.

...PORTIONS OF TN/OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOWN ON 12Z BMX/JAN/BNA RAOBS. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF
UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER
KY/TN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3KM SRH VALUES
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2...BUT ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED MID LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NOT
UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY IF CONCERNS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESSENED.
REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND
DAMAGE REMAINS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN/AL AND
SOUTHERN KY. STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

...NY/PA INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER POTENT ENVIRONMENT WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NY AND
MUCH OF PA INTO WV/VA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS
80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER THIS REGION.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/11/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/KWNSPTSDY1_201104111300.txt) PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1234Z (7:34AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Mesoscale Discussion 409</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0408.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0409.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
MS...AND SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111358Z - 111500Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR.

AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO
AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA
WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING
IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING
TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH
A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
INHIBITION.

SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR
WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH
VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED THIS MORNING.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011


ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...P AH...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON 33739081 34689015 35418938 36498807 37618650 38148531
38358414 37588381 35188555 33438745 33358955 33739081

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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Mesoscale Discussion 410</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0409.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0410.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN
MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111446Z - 111515Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR
NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE
EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY
/REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/.

MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND
CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA
INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
THESE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS
PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS
AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING
THE FORMER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

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New watch just issued

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}.wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 153, 0); }.wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 0); }.wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 255); }</style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0128.html).

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD ROTATING
EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ON
FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD
AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL SRN AR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES
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Moderate Risk


<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Mesoscale Discussion 411</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0410.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0411.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF SRN KY

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 111541Z - 111645Z

...DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE MID
SOUTH AND TN VALLEY...

AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH
NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN TO PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN KY WARRANTS THE
NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK. ADDITIONAL DETAILS INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011


ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...M EG...JAN...

LAT...LON 37508535 37338443 36598426 35078555 33768713 33098829
32928969 33029066 33569085 34159082 34549020 35508818
35968751 36508687 36998610 37508535

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Dr. Greg Forbes (https://www.facebook.com/twcdrforbes)
MONDAY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes along and ahead of the cold front in VT, NY, west MA, north NJ, PA, west MD, northwest and southwest VA, WV, DC, southeast OH, central and east KY, middle and east TN, northwest GA, north and west AL, MS, southeast AR, LA. TORCON – 4 MS and AL areas, 4 KY and... TN areas, 4 east PA.

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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="670"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Apr 11, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Updated: Mon Apr 11 16:13:44 UTC 2011</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="rpttext" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html)</td></tr> </tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody> <tr nowrap="" align="center"> </tr> <tr> <th>Categorical Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110411_1630_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Tornado Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1probotlk_20110411_1630_torn_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/tornado_legend.png </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1probotlk_20110411_1630_wind_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/wind_legend.png </td> </tr> <tr> <th>Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1probotlk_20110411_1630_hail_prt.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/hail_legend.png </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
SPC AC 111609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER S-CNTRL
KY...MIDDLE TN INTO NRN PARTS OF MS/AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF
COAST STATES...

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...KY/TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM
/ANALYZED OVER CNTRL AR AS OF 15Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF
S-CNTRL KY OR NRN-MIDDLE TN BY LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE VA
PIEDMONT BY 12/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF
MIDLEVEL JET CORE WHICH WERE RESULTING IN POOR LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
WHEN COUPLED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /IN ASSOCIATION WITH
12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150 M AT 500 MB/...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE GULF
COAST.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL
KY INTO THE ARKLAMISS WILL ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD AND TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS
INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH WILL
INCREASE T-TD SPREADS.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

HIGHER-LATITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SWRN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
ENEWD THROUGH CNTRL/SRN QUEBEC THIS PERIOD WITH REGION BEING GLANCED
BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S AS FAR N AS THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE
IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE LINE
SEGMENTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY WIND FIELD
ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST INTO
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

..MEAD/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/11/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/KWNSPTSDY1_201104111630.txt) PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

...


<noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0128.html) </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0129.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0129.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css">td.off { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(145, 184, 255); }td.on { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(0, 51, 153); }.wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:link { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:visited { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:active { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:hover { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:link { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:visited { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:active { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:hover { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }.wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 249, 153); }.wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 153, 0); }.wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 0); }.wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 255); }</style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0129.html).

SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY PARTS OF MARYLAND PANHANDLE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0128.html)... DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH 50-60KT OF SHEAR AND MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL ABLE TO FORM. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HALES </pre>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css">td.off { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(145, 184, 255); }td.on { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(0, 51, 153); }.wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:link { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:visited { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:active { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:hover { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:link { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:visited { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:active { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:hover { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }.wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 249, 153); }.wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 153, 0); }.wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 0); }.wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 255); }</style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-high">High</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0129.html).

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF MARYLAND PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LONDON KENTUCKY TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0128.html)...

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH 50-60KT OF SHEAR AND MUCAPES AOA
1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SUPERCELL ABLE TO FORM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES
</pre>
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

[DirtAddsHP]

Do you expect the storm to hit Atlanta, GA? theres a wind advisory right now here, but thats all.

-Austin

[Joe-Nathan]

It looking like all we will get here in SW LA is a just a trace of rain.

Although the South winds have been blowing for three straight days now.

[ROLLTIDE]

Do you expect the storm to hit Atlanta, GA? theres a wind advisory right now here, but thats all.

-Austin

They should impact you after 7pm with the main threat being straight line winds. Are you going to chase ?


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ffc/graphicast/image2.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index
by Dr. Greg Forbes

Forecast for Mon Apr 11
east and southeast NY - 3 to 4
rest of NY - 2 to 3
VT - 3
west MA - 3
west CT - 3
east PA - 4
rest of PA - 3
north NJ - 3
south and east OH - 3
west MD - 3 to 4
north and southwest VA - 3
west half VA - 3 night
DC - 3
WV - 3
central and east KY - 4
TN - 4
north and west AL - 4
MS - 4
southeast AR - 3
LA - 3
west half NC - 3 night
northwest SC - 3 night
north, central, southwest GA - 3 night
FL panhandle - 3 night
other areas - 2 or less

Forecast for Mon Apr 11
east VA - 3
east MD - 3
DC - 3
south NJ - 2 to 3
DE - 3
east NC - 3
north and central FL peninsula - 3
other areas - 2 or less

Brief Synopsis:
The sun is out ahead of the cold front to help break the cap (warm inhibiting layer aloft) and a low-level jet will supply wind energy for damaging gusts and mainly non-supercell tornadoes. A wave of low pressure may form on the front and add a little rotation over KY and TN. A wave of low
pressure on the front may induce a tornado in part of the Mid-Atlantic if instability is sufficient on Tuesday.

[ROLLTIDE]

I will be streaming later trying to get the Imaptracker working

[ROLLTIDE]

..

LOCAL15 The Weather Authority (https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherAuthority)
Derek here: Concerning the threat for severe weather later...not terribly impressed with what I'm seeing. The cap (warm layer a few thousand feet up) is very strong and will keep storms from developing through the day. Front arrives tonight before midnight and this combined with lift from the tail-end of an upper level trough should get storms going by dark. Best chances will be north of I-10.

[Alex]

Looking similar to last week's storm system. The south end of the front widdles down to a narrow squall line. The time frame map displayed above also looks like it will be in a similar time frame for NW Florida (around Midnight). We received less than a half inch of rain from the last passage, so any rain we get is welcome.

[dkmac]

N.O. NWS:

1133 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 12 AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RISE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AS WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SAME AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/430_brett-adair.php

[ROLLTIDE]

....


<noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129.html) </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0130.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0130.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css">td.off { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(145, 184, 255); }td.on { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(0, 51, 153); }.wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:link { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:visited { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:active { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:hover { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:link { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:visited { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:active { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:hover { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }.wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 249, 153); }.wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 153, 0); }.wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 0); }.wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 255); }</style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0130.html).

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0128.html)...WW 129 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129.html)...

DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADING NEWD INTO WRN
AL AHEAD INSTABILITY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MS. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES IN PLACE AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
MOVING FROM SRN MS INTO AL WHICH WOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


</pre>
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[ROLLTIDE]

BUST




<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="zz" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Mesoscale Discussion 415</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0414.html) </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0415.gif </td> </tr> <tr> <td>

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...MS...AND AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 128 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0128.html)...

VALID 112056Z - 112130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 128 CONTINUES.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO THE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF WW 128.

STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM SRN MS INTO SWRN-WRN AL WITH
MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
50-60 KT AND SRH VALUES 100-200 M2/S2 ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREATS. 18Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SRN MS BETWEEN 21-22Z WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH.

FARTHER N...LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS REMAIN A POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE VALID PORTION OF WW 128...ATTENDANT TO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS
MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT THROUGH WRN TN AND NRN MS.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011


ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...M EG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32059086 33418967 34838873 35998817 36238792 36048543
34848562 32898591 32098672 31768829 31498884 31609115
32059086

</pre></td></tr></tbody></table>

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/430_brett-adair.php

[Joe-Nathan]

WOW!!! What a wimpy front!
Take on my ride home @5:45pm:
http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/g362/Joe-Nathan-GeeBig/Iphone%20pics/58725565.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk while sitting in front of my "super-duty" work PC

[ROLLTIDE]

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<noscript> For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript/Active Scripting. </noscript> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> <tr> <td align="center"> < Previous WW (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0131.html) </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"><tbody><tr> <td> <table name="Tabs" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Public (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_radar_big.gif)</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">(Test (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_radar_big.gif))</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Counties (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0132.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Probabilities (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_prob.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Aviation (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0132.html)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Warnings (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_warnings.gif)</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">|</td> <td class="nav" id="menuitem" align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25">Initial RADAR (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_radar_init.gif)</td> <td bgcolor="#0a2390" height="25"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="525"> <tbody><tr> <td> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_radar.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_radar_big.gif) <style type="text/css">td.off { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(145, 184, 255); }td.on { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(0, 51, 153); }.wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:link { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:visited { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:active { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:hover { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:link { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:visited { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:active { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:hover { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }.wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 249, 153); }.wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 153, 0); }.wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 0); }.wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 255); }</style> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="529"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#000000">Hazard</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Tornadoes</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">EF2+ Tornadoes</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td bgcolor="#0a2390">Likelihood</td> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Wind</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">65 kt+ Wind</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-moderate">Moderate</td> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> <td style="border: 1px solid black;"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="background-color: rgb(10, 35, 144); text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-matrix">Severe Hail</td> <td class="wwprb-matrix">2"+ Hail</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-align: center; color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial;"> <td class="wwprb-low">Low</td> <td class="wwprb-verylow">Very Low</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0132.html).

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRISTOL
TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES WEST OF EVERGREEN ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 130 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130.html)...WW 131 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0131.html)...

DISCUSSION...TN/AL/SE MS QLCS HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST 2 HRS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ENEWD WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY
NNE ALONG IT. SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW NOW NEAR HUN MAY IN PART REFLECT
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR JET
STREAK NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY. AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES
EWD...THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE NE INTO ERN TN...EXTENDING THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL LEWP DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THAT
STATE AND N GA. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING MAY
REMAIN WEAKER FARTHER S OVER SRN AL...AVAILABILITY OF RICHER
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SUGGEST EWD
SPREAD OF SVR THREAT FROM SE MS INTO AL. THE MAIN SVR THREATS
SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES FROM SMALL SCALE BOWING
SEGMENTS/LEWPS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...CORFIDI
</pre>
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[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/bmx/graphicast/image2.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

...


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Apr 12, 2011
Updated: Tue Apr 12 09:00:03 UTC 2011
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" width="525"> <tbody><tr nowrap="" class="zz" align="center"></tr> </tbody></table><table style="text-align: center; font-family: Courier; font-weight: normal; width: 525px; height: 40px; font-size: x-small;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#ff0000" width="5%">D4</td><td width="45%">Fri, Apr 15, 2011 - Sat, Apr 16, 2011</td> <td style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#104e8a" width="5%">D7</td><td width="45%">Mon, Apr 18, 2011 - Tue, Apr 19, 2011</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#902bee" width="5%">D5</td><td width="45%">Sat, Apr 16, 2011 - Sun, Apr 17, 2011</td> <td style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#8a4e26" width="5%">D8</td><td width="45%">Tue, Apr 19, 2011 - Wed, Apr 20, 2011</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#008a00" width="5%">D6</td><td width="45%">Sun, Apr 17, 2011 - Mon, Apr 18, 2011</td> <td colspan="2" width="50%">(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

<table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td> Forecast Discussion</td></tr> </tbody></table>
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120859
SPC AC 120859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE MODELS
MOVE THE LOW ENEWD WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS. THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WOULD SEEM THE BEST DUE TO THE
TENDENCY OF CLOSED-OFF LOWS TO BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ALONG A
MOIST AXIS IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/DAY 4 WHERE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY. HAVE OUTLOOKED A SEVERE THREAT AREA IN ERN MS...AL AND
MIDDLE TN. THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY/DAY 5 WITH A POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN
THE ERN STATES. A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A THREAT AREA. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
STATES BY MONDAY/DAY 7. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE STRONG IN
THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT IN THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING UNCERTAINTY
HIGH THIS LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 04/12/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2011/KWNSPTSD48_20110412.txt) PRODUCT
</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

110 mph wind gust in bibb county, AL last night

[ROLLTIDE]

I didn't even get to go out and test my new streaming setup :( .08 inches of rain

[Joe-Nathan]

I didn't even get to go out and test my new streaming setup :( .08 inches of rain

0.02" of rain for me. It lasted less than 10min.

My above photo says is all.

Now Friday is the next chance.

[HarvestMoon]

I got .06" inches of rain out of this.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image2.gif