Historic MS River flooding forecasted once in a 100 year event

[ROLLTIDE]

....


Civil Emergency Message


TNC157-021800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

FLOOD WARNING

ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT
BORDERS SHELBY COUNTY.

A MESSAGE FROM THE SHELBY COUNTY MAYOR MARK H. LUTTRELL...THIS IS
THE TIME TO GATHER ALL IMPORTANT ITEMS AND BE READY TO LEAVE YOUR
PROPERTY. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY PORTIONS OF SHELBY
COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATERS.

A C WHARTON...THE MAYOR OF MEMPHIS ADDED...WE WANT TO REASSURE OUR
CITIZENS THAT DISASTER TEAMS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL BE DOING
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP EVERYONE SAFE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE QUICKLY RISING IN THE WESTERN AREA OF SHELBY
COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BACK UP INTO NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR CREEKS AND
STREAMS. FLOOD WATERS MAY ALSO RISE INTO NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGH
STORM DRAINS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUAL
RISE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GO IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER STARTS TO RISE. AVOID
FLOOD WATERS.

$$





</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/graphic/mainriverstages.png

[Joe-Nathan]

Here in LA we are already setting the stage to open up both the Morganza and Bonnie Carry spillways. Hopefully the three river structure will hold together. Would not be nice if the Miss destroyed it and took over the Atchafalaya River. Morgan City is on alert, of course they have been at flood stage for better part of the year.

This will be a true test of the Miss river levee system through out LA/Miss.

[ROLLTIDE]

Middle TN

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ohx/rainfall/monthly/OHXpcpn_05_2011.png

[Joe-Nathan]

Atchafalaya communities bracing for flood

http://matchbin-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/public/sites/1081/assets/6F1E_flood.jpg
Add three zeros to the figures and you have the cubic feet per second expected in each segment of the central United States’ plumbing system during the “project flood,” approximating the levels seen during the Great Flood of 1927.


from TECHE NEWS

http://www.techetoday.com/view/full_story/12995923/article-Atchafalaya-communities-bracing-for-flood?instance=secondary_stories_left_column


Morgan City and Berwick are bracing for flood conditions as gathering snow melt and spring deluges swell the Mississippi River.

The Daily Review reported last week that state and federal officials have admitted the possibility of opening both the Bonnet Carre Spillway and Morganza Floodway, something that hasn’t happened since the near-catastrophic flood of 1973.

Since then, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built floodwalls at Morgan City and Berwick and beefed up the Old River Control Structure at Simmesport which nearly allowed the Mississippi River to change course to the Atchafalaya.

If the river at Morgan City reaches eight feet as it is projected to do in May, as many as 11 gates in the city’s floodwall will have to be closed, said Mayor Tim Matte.

While the official flood stage is four feet, the city’s enhanced flood protection infrastructure protects vulnerable businesses on Front Street up to a level of six feet.

Meanwhile, across the river, the community of Berwick is facing the same problem.

“Berwick Police Department is on watch at night,” said town superintendent Allen Benoit. “We may close the floodgates at First Street and Pacific Street.”

In the vulnerable areas of lower St. Martin, the Stephensville and Belle River areas, the parish makes sandbags available and mobilizes pumps.

Local officials have about a week to get ready based on conditions at Cairo, Ill., where the Ohio River flows into the Mississippi.

The Atchafalaya normally carries 30 percent of the Mississippi’s

flow, along with that of the Red River. If the Morganza Floodway is utilized, however, the Atchafalaya Basin could be called upon to handle half of the Mississippi’s flow up to 1.5 million cubic feet per second. The Wax Lake Outlet is designed to siphon off as much as 440,000 cfs, easing the impact on Morgan City and Berwick.

[ROLLTIDE]

....


ivil Emergency Message


TNC157-031800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

FLOOD WARNING

ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT
BORDERS SHELBY COUNTY.

A MESSAGE FROM THE SHELBY COUNTY MAYOR MARK H. LUTTRELL...THIS IS
THE TIME TO GATHER ALL IMPORTANT ITEMS AND BE READY TO LEAVE YOUR
PROPERTY. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY PORTIONS OF SHELBY
COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATERS.

A C WHARTON...THE MAYOR OF MEMPHIS ADDED...WE WANT TO REASSURE OUR
CITIZENS THAT DISASTER TEAMS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL BE DOING
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP EVERYONE SAFE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE QUICKLY RISING IN THE WESTERN AREA OF SHELBY
COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BACK UP INTO NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR CREEKS AND
STREAMS. FLOOD WATERS MAY ALSO RISE INTO NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGH
STORM DRAINS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUAL
RISE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GO IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER STARTS TO RISE. AVOID
FLOOD WATERS.

$$








</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image1.gif

[dkmac]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/tributaries/ustatus_miss.jpg

Forecasted river stages:


RIVER STAGE FORECASTS (A)BV
STATION FS 7PM 12HR ....F O R E C A S T..... (B)LO
STG CHG 0504 0505 0506 0507 0508 CREST/DATE FS
OHIO RIVER
SMITHLAND TW 40 54.1 +0.1 54.5 55.0 54.9 54.7 54.5 55.0 05/05A
PADUCAH 39 54.7 +0.1 55.0 55.8 55.7 55.5 55.3 55.8 05/05A
BROOKPORT 37 56.6E MSG 57.0 57.5 57.4 57.2 57.0 57.5 05/05A
GRAND CHAIN 42 61.4E MSG 61.5 61.7 61.7 61.6 61.5 61.7 05/05A
CAIRO 40 60.0 -0.6 60.0 60.0 60.0 59.9 59.8 NEAR CREST

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU 32 45.0 -0.8 45.0 44.1 43.2 42.2 41.1 Crested
THEBES 33 43.9 -0.1 43.5 42.7 41.9 41.1 40.1 Crested
NEW MADRID 34 46.7 +0.2 47.2 48.5 49.8 50.0 50.0 50.0 05/07A
TIPTONVILLE 37 47.7E MSG 48.1 49.1 50.4 51.2 51.7 51.7 05/08A
CARUTHERSVILLE 32 45.8 +0.1 46.0 46.4 47.0 48.0 49.2 49.5 05/08P
OSCEOLA 28 44.0 +0.4 44.3 44.6 45.1 46.1 47.1 47.5 05/09A
MEMPHIS 34 43.8 +0.4 44.5 45.5 46.2 46.5 46.9 48.0 05/11A
HELENA 44 51.3 +0.7 51.8 52.8 53.6 54.3 54.7 56.0 05/12A
ARKANSAS CITY 37 43.2 +0.5 43.9 45.2 46.5 47.7 48.8 53.5 05/16A
GREENVILLE 48 54.5 +0.8 54.6 55.7 56.9 58.2 59.3 64.5 05/17A
VICKSBURG 43 46.4 +0.5 46.8 47.7 48.7 49.4 50.6 57.5 05/20A
NATCHEZ 48 51.6 +0.5 51.9 52.8 53.7 54.5 55.5 65.0 05/22A
RED RIVER LNDG 48 52.8E MSG 53.1 54.0 54.7 55.4 56.2 65.5 05/23A
BATON ROUGE 35 35.4 +0.5 35.6 36.4 37.0 37.7 38.4 47.5 05/23P A.05/03P
DONALDSONVILLE 27 25.1 +0.5 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.6 36.0 05/23P A.05/06P
RESERVE 22 19.3E MSG 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 25.0 05/24A A.05/13A
NEW ORLEANS /17/ 14.0E MSG 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 17.0 05/24A
/ /LEVEES PROTECT CITY OF NEW ORLEANS TO 20 FT STAGE.

ALL STAGE FORECASTS INCLUDE 24 HOURS OF FUTURE RAINFALL.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississippiandohioriverforecast

[Joe-Nathan]

Here is one of many handy river gauge websites:

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/new/layout.cfm

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/images/districtmap.jpg

[Joe-Nathan]

SOMETHING YOU DO NOT SEE TO OFTEN HERE IN S. LA:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011


...CONTINGENCY FORECASTS ISSUED ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS HAS LED TO HISTORIC...AND IN SOME
CASES RECORD BREAKING...RISES ON BOTH RIVERS. AS THIS WATER MOVES
DOWNRIVER...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ALL OF THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER ACCOUNT FOR A FULL OPENING OF THE BONNET CARRE
SPILLWAY LOCATED IN ST. CHARLES PARISH. THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
COULD OPEN THE BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS CURRENTLY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE OPENING
OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH. THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER IS ALSO PROVIDING CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR A
POSSIBLE OPENING OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE CONTINGENCY
FORECAST FOR MORGAN CITY ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. OPENING THE
MORGANZA SPILLWAY WOULD ALSO LEAD TO RISES AT OTHER POINTS ALONG
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THOSE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WILL BE RUN ON
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED FOR THE
OTHER POINTS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE
UPDATED.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES ARE
LISTED BELOW...MOST POPULATION CENTERS ARE PROTECTED BY FLOOD
CONTROL LEVEES TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.

FORECAST POINT FLOOD FORECAST WITH CONTINGENCY WITH
STAGE MORGANZA CLOSED MORGANZA OPEN



MORGAN CITY 4.0 9.5 12.0-13.0


ST. MARTIN PARISH WILL BE HOLDING TWO PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETINGS
FOR STEPHENSVILLE AND BELLE RIVER RESIDENTS A MEETING IS SCHEDULED
FOR MONDAY MAY 9TH 2011 AT 630 PM LOCATED AT THE STEPHENSVILLE
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

THE PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETING FOR BUTTE LAROSE RESIDENTS IS
SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY MAY 10 2011 AT 630 PM AND WILL BE LOCATED AT
THE BUTTE LAROSE FIRE STATION.

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

ONE MONTH RAIN TOTALS:

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/midwest_anomalies_4apr-4may2011.jpg

[ROLLTIDE]

...

One Stop Flood Resources Page Click Map to Enlarge
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/graphic/mainriverstages_thumb.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/graphic/mainriverstages.png)
Real-Time River Data
Latest Stages, Forecast and Historical Information (AHPS) (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=meg)
NWS Memphis Hydrology Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=hydrology)
US Army Corps of Engineers - Memphis Division: News Releases (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.mvm.usace.army.mil/publicaffairs/News/press_releases/bpnm/BPNM_pressrelease.asp)
Civil Emergency Messages (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CEMMEG&version=0&max=25)
Inundation Maps
Shelby County, TN (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.staysafeshelby.us/RW_050411.pdf) : (By Zip Code) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.staysafeshelby.us/clr.htm)
DeSoto County, MS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.desotocountyms.gov/images/stories/EmergencyServices/Flood/flood_map_2011_reduced.pdf)
Tipton County, TN (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.tiptonco.com/docs/2011-05-03_PM_Flood_Road%20Closings_Legal.pdf)
Mississippi (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Weather_Events/Hydro/MS_River/MS_River_Main.png) : KML File (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jan/Weather_Events/2011/MS_River_Flooding/Potential_Flood_Area.kml) for overlay on Google Earth (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.google.com/earth/index.html) / North Central MS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Weather_Events/Hydro/MS_River/MS_River_B4.png)
Emergency Management
Shelby County Office of Preparedness (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.staysafeshelby.us/)
Arkansas (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.adem.arkansas.gov/ADEM/index.aspx)
West TEMA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.tnema.org/ema/regions/west/index.html)
Missouri (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://sema.dps.mo.gov/)
Mississippi (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.msema.org/)
Are You a Victim of Flooding?
Submit Your Flooding Report (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=meg)
FEMA Offers Three Ways to Apply for Federal Assistance (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.fema.gov%2F2011%2F04%2F3-ways-to-apply-for-federal-assistance.html)
Red Cross Shelter Locations (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://app.redcross.org/nss-app/)
MidSouth Road Conditions
Arkansas (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.arkansashighways.com/road/mapopt.htm) : Road Closure List (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.arkansashighways.com/roads/web-road%20closings.htm) : Interstate 40 Impact Map (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.arkansashighways.com/news/2011/White_River_Bridge_Closed.pdf)
1-800-245-1672
1-501-569-2374
Tennessee (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm)
1-877-244-0065
Mississippi (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.mstraffic.com/default.aspx?loadpage=listalerts.aspx)
1-888-728-4218
1-601-987-1211
Missouri (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://maps.modot.mo.gov/travelerinformation)
1-800-222-6400
Kentucky (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://511.ky.gov)
1-866-737-3767
General Information
Flood Safety Rules (http://www.weather.gov/floodsafety/floodsafe.shtml)
MODIS Satellite (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/) : Comparison of July 4,2010 and May 4,2011 (2MB Animated GIF) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/meg/jul0410_may0411.gif)
The Mississippi River & Tributaries Project - USACE Paper (PDF) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=meg&url=http://www.mvd.usace.army.mil/mrc/pdf/MRT%20info%20paper.pdf)

[Joe-Nathan]

The Bonne Carrie will be opened early this coming week. The Moganza spillway will be opened either this week or early next week.

This one action alone will push over 50% of the Mississippi into the Atchafalayia Basin. Which will put Morgan City real close to flooding.


They have issued voluntary evacuations in Lower St. Martin Ph and St. Mary Ph. Especially those areas that had water from the May 1973 flood. Here in upper St. Martin Ph they have advised those living or having camps on the river side of the protection levees to begin preparing for on coming flood.


http://images.bimedia.net/images/inundationmap.jpg

[ROLLTIDE]

...


hether you are driving or walking, if you come to a flooded road, Turn Around Don't Drown. You will not know the depth of the water nor will you know the condition of the road under the water. Each year, more deaths occur due to flooding than from any other thunderstorm related hazard. Why? The main reason is people underestimate the force and power of water. Many of the deaths occur in automobiles as they are swept downstream. Major to Record Flooding is expected along the Mississippi River over the course of the next two to three weeks. Dispalyed below, you will find critical information including: Updated National Weather Service Graphicasts, Potential Flood Maps at Crest Heights (USACE/NWS), and numerous Links to multiple agencies coordnating in response to the Mississippi River flooding that is ongoing at this time.
Click here for Interactive Google Map County and Parish Links for (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=2011_05_gm_flood_directory):
(Under Development)



Emergency Point Contact Information
Updated Road Closures
Updated Flood Areas
Evacuations Notices (as they become available)



NWS Jackson Graphicast:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image_full1.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image_full1.gif)

NWS Memphis Graphicast:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/graphic/mainriverstages.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=riverstages)


Potential Flood Areas based on (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)Forecast (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)River (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)

Crest Heights (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Weather_Events/Hydro/MS_River/MS_River_main.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)



Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/)


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/homepage/ustatus_lmrfccrop.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/homepage/latest24.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/homepage/latest24.jpg)

Latest River Summary issued by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=RVA&issuedby=ORN)
Latest Extended Streamflow Forecast issued by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESP&issuedby=ORN)

<hr>

Precipitation

Current & Forecast


Hourly rainfall amounts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/)

Daily rainfall amounts
(http://water.weather.gov/precip/)

Precipitation Forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml)

<hr>

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/USACE.png Corps of Engineers http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/USACE.png
Corps of Engineers Memphis district (from the confluence of the Ohio River and Mississippi River to Helena, Arkansas) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.mvm.usace.army.mil/publicaffairs/News/press_releases/pressrelease.asp)
Corps of Engineers Vicksburg district (Arkansas City to Natchez) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.mvk.usace.army.mil/flood2011/index.aspx)
Corps of Engineers New Orleans district (Red River Landing to New Orleans) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/index.asp)

<hr>

Road Conditions http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/MDOT.png http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/LDOT.png http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/ARDOT.png
Mississippi Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.gomdot.com/Home/Home.aspx)
Louisiana Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://hb.511la.org/main.jsf)
Arkansas Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.arkansashighways.com/)

<hr>

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/facebook_find.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/Facebook_sm.gif National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi
(http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/Facebook_sm.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.LMRFC.gov)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/Facebook_sm.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts)Bir ds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center (http://www.facebook.com/pages/Birds-Point-New-Madrid-Floodway-Joint-Information-Center/120898681323357)

[dkmac]

Projections show Morganza Floodway opening would threaten more than a dozen communities




Published: Friday, May 06, 2011, 10:44 PM Updated: Friday, May 06, 2011, 11:21 PM

http://media.nola.com//avatars/markatbarge.jpg (http://connect.nola.com/user/mschleif/index.html)By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune (http://connect.nola.com/user/mschleif/index.html)The Times-Picayune

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The likely, though not yet announced, opening of the Morganza Floodway to lower Mississippi River levels along Baton Rouge and New Orleans will produce widespread flooding that prompted the Army Corps of Engineers on Friday night to warn residents of Pointe Coupee, St Landry, St Martin, Iberia, Iberville, St Mary, and Terrebonne parishes to contact public officials about evacuation plans.
projectedfloodmaps.pdf (http://media.nola.com/news_impact/other/projectedfloodmaps.pdf)
That announcement came in a news release accompanying a map showing estimates of inundation caused by a 50 percent opening of the Morganza Floodway that indicated that more than a dozen Louisiana communities will be threatened with floodwaters, including Houma, Plaquemine, St. Francisville, Morgan City, Berwick, Raceland and Mathews. The map is the result of computer modeling conducted during the past few days by the corps in support of its plans to open the spillway.
"As floodwaters progress through the Morganza Floodway to the Gulf of Mexico, the height of the water could reach between 5 and upwards of 25 feet above ground elevation, causing widespread flooding and inundation," says a news release accompanying the map.
"Public notice of operation (of the floodway) and required evacuation will be given through your state and local emergency officials and other governmental authorities, as well as media outlets," the news release said. "Notification will be given in advance with adequate time for evacuation; however, expeditious action must be taken to protect life and property." If the spillway is not opened, according to the most recent forecast of the Natiional Weather Service, the water level in the Mississippi River at New Orleans would rise to 19.5 feet, only a half foot from the top of floodwalls that protect the city.
And the flow rate of the river would be close to 1.9 million cubic feet, which could result in erosion of the levees in which those floodwalls are built or levees not topped by floodwalls in the area.
Gov. Bobby Jindal on Friday (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/05/jindal_to_atchafalaya_resident.html)requested the inundation modeling result be provided to state officials.
"The corps projections show a large area inundated in south Louisiana," said Garret Graves, chairman of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, the state's senior levee agency. "We have asked the Corps to immediately join the parishes, levee districts and others to take steps to prevent flooding of homes and businesses. I would take this threat very seriously."
"This map has been completed using the best information available and is believed to be accurate," reads a disclaimer printed on the document. "However, its preparation required many assumptions. Actual conditions during a flood event may vary from those assumed, so the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
"The limits of flooding shown should only be used as a guideline for emergency planning and response action. Actual areas inundated will depend on specific flooding conditions and may differ from the areas shown on the map," it reads. "Information on this map is intended to permit state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and flood response actions." Most of the communities threatened with flooding would face one to five feet of water, according to the map. But water could rise as high as 25 feet near St. Francisville, north of Baton Rouge.


http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2011/05/projects_show_morganza_spillwa.html

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.quickiecountry.com/images/floodmap.png

[Joe-Nathan]

This is starting to get serious. To my knowledge the western Atch protection levee has never been tested like this before. If it breaks my neighbors all around me will be in trouble. I am some what safe in the fact that I live in the Teche ridge.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/?n=atchafalayaflood


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lch/graphicast/image_full2.gif

[Windwatcher]

Can't believe how many parishes are about to be flooded---seven parishes will be impacted? This is very very serious, and not at all what the people in south La need right now. Good Lord, when will it end?

[Joe-Nathan]

Can't believe how many parishes are about to be flooded---seven parishes will be impacted? This is very very serious, and not at all what the people in south La need right now. Good Lord, when will it end?


It is OK Wind. The plumbing in the Atch. Basin has been in need of a good flushing for several years now. Granted there will be a lot hunting camps lost, but a good cleaning of the system is needed.

I am joking.


I am more worried about Morgan City/Berwick areas. This will be the first real test of their Levee/floodwall systems. Will be an interesting few weeks for sure.

[dkmac]

Wind, the people/companies that built in the Atchafalayia Basin/Morganza Floodway knew upfront that there was a possibility of the Morganza spillway opening to relieve downriver water pressure on the MS river levees protecting Baton Rouge and points south. It's always a roll of the dice when you build in floodways - like the people up in Missouri where they blew open the levee to save towns further south down the river. Like J-N I worry about Morgan City testing their levees for the first time. Once they open the Morganza, the wild crawfish season will basically be over.

[Joe-Nathan]

Once they open the Morganza, the wild crawfish season will basically be over.

Actually the wild crawfish season will HOT until the water begins to drop. But the problem will be that all their traps will be 10' under water and they will have to drive @ no wake speed near the levees.

[dkmac]

Corps To Open Morganza Sometime Between Saturday, Tuesday


WDSU.com
updated <ABBR style="DISPLAY: inline" class="dtstamp updated" title=2011-05-10T04:45:06 itxtvisited="1">5/10/2011 12:45:06 AM ET</ABBR> 2011-05-10T04:45:06

NORCO, La. (http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&where1=NORCO, La.) — WDSU .com (http://www.wdsu.com/)
A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers official said LSU and other infrastructure south of Baton Rouge would be flooded if the Morganza Spillway isn't opened to divert water from the Mississippi River.
Maj. Gen. Michael J. Walsh -- president of the Mississippi River Commission and commander of the Vicksburg, Miss.-based division of the Corps -- told lawmakers Monday night that the Corps likely will open Morganza sometime between Saturday and Tuesday.
Walsh also predicted potential overtopping of the levees at various sites along a 200 mile-stretch south of Baton Rouge if the spillway wasn't used.
Walsh says the Morganza Spillway would likely be used at 50 percent of its capacity, or 300,000 cubic feet per second.
Meanwhile, in an effort to ease the strain on the bulging Mississippi River, the Army Corps of Engineers on Monday opened the Bonnet Carre Spillway, diverting water from the "Big Muddy" into Lake Pontchartrain.

"There's no doubt that we are stressing the system," said Army Corps Col. Ed Fleming. "These are historic flows."
Fleming went on to say that, in some cases, the flow exceeds the flood of 1927.
The project design flow for the Mississippi River through New Orleans is 1.25 million cubic feet per second.
With more water expected from the north, crews are working around the clock and monitoring river levels.
Hundreds of people gathered at the spillway to witness the unusual event. It was the second time in the past decade that the spillway was opened.
Shortly after 8 a.m., a small crane and several workers began lifting the wooden tooth-like slats -- resembling railroad ties -- that normally keep water in the channel.
In all, 28 of 350 bays on the Spillway were set to open. On Tuesday, crews planned to open an additional 44 bays.
The Mississippi River is nearing record levels, with severe flooding already taking place in Memphis and other upstream communities. In New Orleans, even with preventive steps, water levels are expected to come within six inches of levee tops.
It all comes down to science, but there are some environmental concerns.
"The plume of water coming out from spillway will push normal, brackish water out of the lake and with it some of the fisheries," explained Dr. John Lopez, of the Lake Ponchartrain Basin Foundation.
Lopez said the lake will naturally return to normal in about six months. He said he understands that there aren't any alternatives, especially with the river expected to rise to 17 feet through New Orleans on Tuesday, which is flood stage.
The crest of flow is not expected until May 23 or 24, Fleming said. Authorities said high river levels could last into June or July.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42956593/ns/local_news-new_orleans_la/

[Joe-Nathan]

I will have to make the trip if it is opens on Saturday. Once in a lifetime event. I will probably drag the kids to see it too.

Man to feel the ground shake and here the roar will be cool.

[ROLLTIDE]

I will be headed to Memphis and will volunteer and help out if they need me

[Joe-Nathan]

TWO days old:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011


...CONTINGENCY FORECASTS FOR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS HAS LED TO HISTORIC...AND IN SOME
CASES RECORD BREAKING...RISES ON BOTH RIVERS. AS THIS WATER MOVES
DOWNRIVER...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ALL OF THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER ACCOUNT FOR A FULL OPENING OF THE BONNET CARRE
SPILLWAY LOCATED IN ST. CHARLES PARISH. THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
COULD OPEN THE BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS CURRENTLY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE OPENING
OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH. THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER IS ALSO PROVIDING CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR A
POSSIBLE OPENING OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. OPENING THE
MORGANZA SPILLWAY WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES AT MANY POINTS
ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES ARE
LISTED BELOW...MOST POPULATION CENTERS ARE PROTECTED BY FLOOD
CONTROL LEVEES TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.

IN ADDITION IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE FLOODING BEFORE FLOOD STAGE IS REACHED. IF YOU ARE A
PROPERTY OWNER ON THE UNPROTECTED SIDE OF THE LEVEE...PLEASE LOOK
AT THE FORECAST AND DETERMINE IF YOUR PROPERTY IS AT RISK OF
FLOODING.

FORECAST POINT FLOOD FORECAST WITH CONTINGENCY WITH
STAGE MORGANZA CLOSED MORGANZA OPEN

SIMMESPORT 47.0 50.0 50.0
MELVILLE 41.0 40.0 40.0
KROTZ SPRINGS 37.0 35.0 35.0
BUTTE LA ROSE 25.0 25.0 27.0
BAYOU SORREL LOCK 12.0 14.0 21.5
MYETTE POINT 15.0 14.5 19.0
MORGAN CITY 4.0 9.5 12.0-13.0


A PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETING FOR STEPHENSVILLE AND BELLE RIVER
RESIDENTS IS SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY MAY 9TH 2011 AT 630 PM AT THE
STEPHENSVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

A PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETING FOR MORGAN CITY RESIDENTS IS SCHEDULED
FOR TUESDAY MAY 10 2011 AT 1000 AM AT THE CITY COURT BUILDING.

A PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETING FOR BUTTE LA ROSE RESIDENTS IS
SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY MAY 10 2011 AT 630 PM AT THE BUTTE LA ROSE
FIRE STATION.


$$

[dkmac]

I will have to make the trip if it is opens on Saturday. Once in a lifetime event. I will probably drag the kids to see it too.

Man to feel the ground shake and here the roar will be cool.

Bring plenty of cold beverages, and sunscreen. The Corps started opening bays at the Bonnet Carre yesterday morning at 7ish, and only got 28 of the 350 bays open by nightfall.

But you're right, it's a once in a lifetime event. The last time they opened the Morganza was in 1973, nearly 40 years ago.

[nightrider]

I will have to make the trip if it is opens on Saturday. Once in a lifetime event. I will probably drag the kids to see it too.

Man to feel the ground shake and here the roar will be cool.

Call me if you hear exactly which day they will be opening it. I've been to the lock and dam structure at three rivers many times and its roaring with only 20% to 30% of the water coming through those structures.

[ROLLTIDE]

...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/banner.jpg

<table cellspacing="2" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td align="center">http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Icons/turn_around_barrier.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tadd/)</td> <td valign="top">Whether you are driving or walking, if you come to a flooded road, Turn Around Don't Drown. You will not know the depth of the water nor will you know the condition of the road under the water. Each year, more deaths occur due to flooding than from any other thunderstorm related hazard. Why? The main reason is people underestimate the force and power of water. Many of the deaths occur in automobiles as they are swept downstream.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Major to Record Flooding is expected along the Mississippi River over the course of the next two to three weeks. Dispalyed below, you will find critical information including: Updated National Weather Service Graphicasts, Potential Flood Maps at Crest Heights (USACE/NWS), and numerous Links to multiple agencies coordnating in response to the Mississippi River flooding that is ongoing at this time.
Click here for Interactive Google Map County and Parish Links for (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=2011_05_gm_flood_directory):
(Under Development)



Emergency Point Contact Information
Emergency Shelter Locations



NWS Jackson Graphicast:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image_full1.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image_full1.gif)

NWS Memphis Graphicast:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/graphic/mainriverstages.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=riverstages)


Potential Flood Areas based on (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)Forecast (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)River (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)

Crest Heights (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Weather_Events/Hydro/MS_River/MS_River_main.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=Potential_Flood_Inundation)



Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/)


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/homepage/ustatus_lmrfccrop.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/homepage/latest24.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/homepage/latest24.jpg)

Latest River Summary issued by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=RVA&issuedby=ORN)
Latest Extended Streamflow Forecast issued by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESP&issuedby=ORN)

<hr>

Precipitation

Current & Forecast


Hourly rainfall amounts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/)

Daily rainfall amounts
(http://water.weather.gov/precip/)

Precipitation Forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml)

<hr>

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/USACE.png Corps of Engineers http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/USACE.png
Corps of Engineers Memphis district (from the confluence of the Ohio River and Mississippi River to Helena, Arkansas) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.mvm.usace.army.mil/publicaffairs/News/press_releases/pressrelease.asp)
Corps of Engineers Vicksburg district (Arkansas City to Natchez) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.mvk.usace.army.mil/flood2011/index.aspx)
Corps of Engineers New Orleans district (Red River Landing to New Orleans) (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/index.asp)

<hr>

Road Conditions http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/MDOT.png http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/LDOT.png http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/Weather_Events/2011/May_MS_River_Flood/ARDOT.png
Mississippi Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.gomdot.com/Home/Home.aspx)
Louisiana Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://hb.511la.org/main.jsf)
Arkansas Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.arkansashighways.com/)

<hr>

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/facebook_find.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/Facebook_sm.gif National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi
(http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/Facebook_sm.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.LMRFC.gov)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Icons/Facebook_sm.gif (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nwsexit.php?site=jan&url=http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.JacksonMS.gov?ref=ts)Bir ds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center (http://www.facebook.com/pages/Birds-Point-New-Madrid-Floodway-Joint-Information-Center/120898681323357)

[dkmac]

http://images.ibsys.com/2011/0510/27840483.jpg

[dkmac]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lix/graphicast/image_full3.gif

[Joe-Nathan]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
530 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011


...CONTINGENCY FORECASTS FOR MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS...
...UPDATED CONTINGENCY FORECAST STAGE FOR BUTTE LA ROSE...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO HISTORIC...AND IN SOME
CASES RECORD BREAKING...RISES ON BOTH RIVERS. AS THIS WATER MOVES
DOWNRIVER...SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

ALL OF THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER ACCOUNT FOR A FULL OPENING OF THE BONNET CARRE
SPILLWAY LOCATED IN ST. CHARLES PARISH. THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
HAS ALREADY OPENED SOME OF THE BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY BAYS AND IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN THE REST OF THE BAYS LATER THIS WEEK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS CURRENTLY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE OPENING
OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH. HOWEVER...THE
RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS PROVIDING CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WHICH
ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE OPENING OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE CONTINGENCY
FORECAST FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES ARE
LISTED BELOW...MOST POPULATION CENTERS ARE PROTECTED BY FLOOD
CONTROL LEVEES TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.

FORECAST POINT FLOOD FORECAST WITH CONTINGENCY WITH
STAGE MORGANZA CLOSED MORGANZA OPEN

RED RIVER LANDING 48.0 65.5 63.5-64.5
BATON ROUGE 35.0 47.5 45.5-46.5
DONALDSONVILLE 27.0 36.0 34.0
RESERVE 22.0 28.0 25.0
NEW ORLEANS 17.0 19.5 17.0

SIMMESPORT 47.0 50.0 50.0
MELVILLE 41.0 40.0 40.0
KROTZ SPRINGS 37.0 35.0 35.0
BUTTE LA ROSE 25.0 25.0 29.0
BAYOU SORREL LOCK 12.0 14.0 21.5
MYETTE POINT 15.0 14.5 19.0
MORGAN CITY 4.0 9.5 12.0-13.0


$$

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM WWL TV

Morganza spillway could be opened this weekend

wwltv.com

Posted on May 11, 2011 at 8:56 AM

Updated today at 8:58 AM



BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) -- Inmates are filling sandbags to protect property in Cajun swamp communities that could be flooded from the bulging Mississippi River if engineers open the Morganza spillway.

Officials say a decision on opening the spillway could come today.

On Monday, the corps began opening the Bonnet Carre spillway near New Orleans. The Morganza spillway is upriver from Baton Rouge and could be opened this weekend.

The floodway pours into the Atchafalaya River, and on to the Gulf of Mexico.

Communities such as Morgan City on its southern end are sandbagging against the expected floodwaters, and hoping for the best.

(Copyright 2011 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

[dkmac]

Mississippi River flooding in New Orleans area could be massive if Morganza spillway stays closed




Published: Tuesday, May 10, 2011, 10:10 PM Updated: Wednesday, May 11, 2011, 9:21 AM

By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune (http://connect.nola.com/user/mschleif/index.html)


If the Morganza Floodway is not opened to funnel 300,000 cubic feet per second of water from the Mississippi River (http://topics.nola.com/tag/mississippi-river/index.html) into the Atchafalaya River basin, the additional water could cause levees to fail along the river from Morganza to Plaquemines Parish, including all of the New Orleans area, resulting in as much as 25 feet of floodwater, according to a map provided to state officials by the Army Corps of Engineers (http://topics.nola.com/tag/corps-of-engineers/index.html) on Tuesday.
http://media.nola.com/tpphotos/photo/2011/05/9565717-large.jpg Enlarge (http://photos.nola.com/tpphotos/2011/05/more_bonnet_carre_spillway_bay_20.html) Brett Duke, The Times-Picayune (http://connect.nola.com/user/bsduke/photos.html)BRETT DUKE / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Mississippi River water pours through the Bonnet Carre Spillway structure in Norco Tuesday, May 10, 2011. The spillway diverts water from the Mississippi River to Lake Pontchartrain. Aerials over the Mississippi River and Bonnet Carre Spillway Tuesday, May 10, 2011 (http://photos.nola.com/4500/gallery/aerials_over_the_bonnet_carre_spillway_tuesday_may _10_2011/index.html) gallery (21 photos) <!-- --><!-- -->



<!-- --><!-- -->

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> /* <![CDATA[ */ embedSlideshow(4500, 9565648, 'aerials_over_the_bonnet_carre_spillway_tuesday_ma y_10_2011', '&align=left'); /* ]]> */ </SCRIPT>
The worst-case scenario obtained by The Times-Picayune is part of the risk assessment conducted this week by corps officials in support of opening the floodway. The combination of water from the floodway and from the Old River Control Structure just upriver of Morganza pouring into the Atchafalaya basin will flood a large swath of mostly unpopulated land.
It will also threaten Morgan City, Houma and several smaller communities.
Ironically, much of the Atchafalaya Basin would still flood if the spillway is not opened, according to the new map, because the Old River Control Structure will be sending twice as much water from the Mississippi into the basin as it normally does. Meanwhile, the river will still overtop the relatively low Morganza floodway structure even if it's not opened, and several other levee failures could occur between Morganza and Baton Rouge.
http://media.nola.com/weather_impact/photo/9566637-large.jpgView full size (http://media.nola.com/weather_impact/photo/chart-morganza-051111jpg-da915500b521091b.jpg)<!-- IE6 HACK --><!-- IE6 HACK -->
Corps Maj. Gen. Michael Walsh, president of the Mississippi River Commission and commander of all corps districts along the river, has strongly hinted that he will approve opening the Morganza Floodway sometime between Friday and Tuesday. That's when the rate of water moving past Red River Landing, across from the Louisiana State Prison at Angola, will reach 1.5 million cubic feet per second, which is the official trigger for opening the spillway.
During a news conference in Baton Rouge, Gov. Bobby Jindal (http://topics.nola.com/tag/bobby-jindal/index.html) said he expects Walsh to order the opening of the spillway. He urged residents in affected areas to prepare for evacuations if called for by their local elected leaders.
<!-- --><!-- -->

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> /* <![CDATA[ */ embedSlideshow(4500, 9565543, 'mississippi_river_in_new_orleans', '&align=right'); /* ]]> */ </SCRIPT>
"Based on various inundation maps, you're looking at roughly 3 million acres that will be impacted, be underwater," when the floodway opens, Jindal said. "That includes about 18,000 acres of cropland just within the Atchafalaya basin."
According to census data, about 2,500 people inside the floodway, including residents of Melville, Butte Larose and Krotz Springs, could be surrounded by water, and another 22,500 people and 11,000 structures will be affected by some flooding, Jindal said.
Jindal said it will take about three days from the opening of the floodway until the first water from Morganza reaches Morgan City, which already is experiencing high water from the Old River Control Structure.
Serious flooding also is expected in parts of northern Louisiana as rivers and streams that normally flow unimpeded into the Mississippi have begun to back up. No rivers or streams enter the Mississippi in south Louisiana.
Too close for comfort
The National Weather Service has predicted that at its crest, 1.9 million cubic feet per second of water will flow past the Red River Landing if the floodway is not opened.
That would result in a crest of 19.5 feet at the Carrollton Gauge in New Orleans, which is 2.5 feet above official flood stage and just 6 inches below the top of floodwalls.
http://media.nola.com/weather_impact/photo/9566816-large.jpgView full size (http://media.nola.com/weather_impact/photo/map2-morganza-051111jpg-0ad237fba02ef817.jpg)<!-- IE6 HACK --><!-- IE6 HACK -->
The new corps map assumes that such a high water level could result in multiple failures of earthen levees, floodwalls or other structures along the river, said Walter Baumy, chief of engineering for the corps' New Orleans office.
The record high water levels also would cause a dramatic disruption to business in the Port of New Orleans and elsewhere along the river in the New Orleans area, said Bob Turner, executive director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-East.
"With a stage at Carrollton of 19.5 feet, we would have to close most of the floodgates along the Mississippi River levee within our jurisdiction," he said. "The port, Public Belt Railroad, recreational areas like the Audubon Aquarium and the Butterfly Park would have to close."
More significant, though, would be the unknown effects on the levees, Turner said.
"We have a good bit of experience dealing with seepage and sand boils, saturated soil conditions when the river stages are around 17 feet," he said. "Once the river gets over 17.5 feet, I don't know that we've got a lot of experience dealing with those same issues. Seepage and sand boils, that uncertainty gives us some concern. My gut is if it gets higher, it's going to be more difficult to keep those things under control."
Even if the river doesn't go much over 17 feet at New Orleans, a level reached at noon Tuesday, levee officials will be keeping careful watch when the river begins to drop, now not expected until mid-June, Turner said.
"If the river begins to fall rapidly, we could have incidents where saturated levees slide into the river," he said.
Laying bare the risks
Baumy emphasized that the no-Morganza map was not designed with the public in mind, but rather to help corps engineers plan better.
"The maps were done in a day or two, as we were trying to assess risk to show, here's the options on the table and here's some things to think about," he said.
For instance, while the color code on the map shows the possibility of 20 to 25 feet of water occurring from Kenner through New Orleans if levees were to fail, elevations vary dramatically within that area.
And while the map indicates flooding all along the east side of the river from Simmesport to New Orleans, it is not meant to indicate all of that area would be flooded, Baumy said. Rather, the colors indicate the highest water level possible if the levee were overtopped or breached in those areas. The corps would not expect all segments of the levee system to fail, he said.
State agencies already are scrambling to prepare for flooding in the Atchafalaya basin and in northern flood areas, Jindal said, saying 500 additional National Guard troops have been deployed.
The National Guard has set up liaison teams in 19 parishes and assigned troops to work with corps teams and the Coast Guard.
The state also is rounding up thousands of feet of Hesco basket, fiber and metal baskets that are filled with rock and dirt to create temporary levees.
Evacuation guidelines
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Catahoula, Point Coupee and Iberia parishes have begun issuing evacuation orders from some localities, while others, including St. Landry, St. Mary, St. Martin, West Baton Rouge, Assumption and Ascension, have issued voluntary evacuation recommendations to residents and businesses in expected flood areas.
Jindal also is lobbying federal officials to upgrade their treatment of the potential flooding as a national disaster. FEMA has agreed to provide direct federal assistance to 22 parishes, but the disaster agency has not agreed to let the state bill the federal government for its costs in flood fighting.
In a Monday letter to President Barack Obama, Jindal said the state has estimated its costs for the first 30 days to be at least $80 million, including $20 million the Department of Child and Family Services will need for shelters.
Jindal also has asked the Defense Department to reimburse the state for National Guard mobilization because the Morganza Floodway is part of the national floodway system.
Agriculture & Forestry Commissioner Mike Strain also asked the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday to consider the floodway opening to be a natural disaster, which would make farmers eligible for federal assistance.
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Meanwhile, at Montz, an additional 44 bays of the Bonnet Carre Spillway were opened Tuesday, increasing the number of bays opened to 72. The spillway has 350 bays.
The action will increase the flow of water to about 70,000 cubic feet per second, according to spillway manager Chris Brantley. Another 38 bays could be opened today.
When fully open, the spillway diverts 250,000 cubic feet of water per second into Lake Pontchartrain (http://topics.nola.com/tag/lake-pontchartrain/index.html).

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/05/army_corps_fears_massive_flood.html

[Joe-Nathan]

The governor is on the TV:

http://www.katc.com/flood-of-2011/

[Joe-Nathan]

THIS SHOULD PUT A LITTLE FEAR IN YOU ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MISS AND IN N.O.:

USCOR has run three scenarios for flood predictions on the operation of the morganza and old river structure.

Full size PDF (+10MB) are available at this address:

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/missriver.asp


SCENARIO 1:

Estimated Inundation Map Scenario 1 depicts anticipated impacts from operation of the Morganza Floodway at 50% of its capacity with full operation of the Bonnet Carre’ Spillway. The previously released Estimated Inundation Map is the same as the Estimated Inundation Map Scenario 1.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/images/NO_District_Inundation_Spring_May_2011_Scenario1%2 0PR_6May_190.jpg

SCENARIO 2:

Estimated Inundation Map Scenario 2 depicts anticipated impacts from non-operation of the Morganza Floodway with the Bonnet Carre’ Spillway operating at 100% capacity.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/images/NO_District_Inundation_Spring_May_2011_Scenario2_P R_9May_140.jpg

SCENARIO 3:

Estimated Inundation Map Scenario 3 depicts anticipated impacts from non-operation of the Morganza Floodway with excess flowing through Old River and the Bonnet Carre’ Spillway operating at 100% capacity.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/images/NO_District_Inundation_Spring_May_2011_Scenario3_P R_8May_130.jpg

[dkmac]

Jindal says Morganza Floodway to open Saturday or Sunday; tells parishes to begin evacuation notifications




Published: Friday, May 13, 2011, 11:43 AM Updated: Friday, May 13, 2011, 12:21 PM

By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune (http://connect.nola.com/user/mschleif/index.html)The Times-Picayune

In a news conference in Baton Rouge now underway, Gov. Bobby Jindal (http://topics.nola.com/tag/bobby-jindal/index.html) said the Army Corps of Engineers has made it clear to him that it will order the Morganza Floodway to be opened on Saturday or on Sunday at the latest.

<!-- --><!-- -->

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> /* <![CDATA[ */ embedSlideshow(4500, 9574307, 'mississippi_river_flooding_threat_in_louisiana', '&align=left'); /* ]]> */ </SCRIPT>
“Now is the time to take action. Don’t delay, Don’t hope something will change,” Jindal said.
Jindal said he has asked state officials to tell parish governments to begin notifying their residents in areas in the Atchafalaya River basin expected to be flooded to begin evacuations. Some parishes have told him that they will complete notifications of residents of evacuation plans in a few hours, while others will need up to 48 hours.


http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/05/jindal_says_morganza_floodway.html

[Joe-Nathan]

Well I know what I am doing this weekend...

Hope I can get close enough to get some good video.

The morganza is not set up like the Bonne Carre. It has a Hwy 1 running over the top of it.

[dkmac]

Googlemap satellite pic of the Morganza spillway. If you zoom out you'll see the MS river to the Northeast. Zoom in and you'll see the track that the pin remover machine moves on to extract the pins that hold the water from the river back from entering the floodway.

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=30.777036,-91.620119&spn=0.014859,0.014291&t=h&z=16

[dkmac]

Good on ya Kevin!


Parish President Kevin Davis has sent equipment and personnel from the St. Tammany Parish Department of Public Works and the Emergency Operations Center to St. Mary Parish and the Morgan City to help prepare for flooding from the Mississippi River.

A caravan of equipment left from Covington this morning, headed across the Causeway and to Morgan City. Sand trucks, front end loaders, sandbagging equipment and personnel to operate the equipment will be arriving today in St. Mary Parish. Emergency Operations personnel from St. Tammany are already in St. Mary Parish to help determine needs and how to best deploy available assets.

“This is a situation where we all need to work together,” said St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis. “Our neighbors in the St. Mary Parish area could be facing some serious flooding, and we want to provide as much help as possible to keep homes and businesses safe. We all have experienced loss in recent years, and whatever we can to do work together and share resources should be done.”



http://www.stpgov.org/news.php?id=1963

[Joe-Nathan]

Ya so I am bored and not doing my work:

Morganza and surrounding area:

http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/g362/Joe-Nathan-GeeBig/HCW-STUFF/MorganzaSW.jpg

Morganza zoomed in:

http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/g362/Joe-Nathan-GeeBig/HCW-STUFF/MorganzaSW-small.jpg

[dkmac]

Hot off the press:



Published: Friday, May 13, 2011, 4:30 PM Updated: Friday, May 13, 2011, 4:45 PM

By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune (http://connect.nola.com/user/mschleif/index.html)The Times-Picayune


Maj. Gen. Michael Walsh has instructed officials to open the Morganza Floodway (http://topics.nola.com/tag/morganza-spillway/index.html) within the next 24 hours to reduce the flow of the Mississippi River (http://topics.nola.com/tag/mississippi-river/index.html) past Baton Rouge and New Orleans, a corps spokesman said.

<!-- --><!-- -->

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> /* <![CDATA[ */ embedSlideshow(4500, 9575901, 'the_mighty_mississippi', '&align=left'); /* ]]> */ </SCRIPT>
The announcement and a map indicating the potential flow and height of water moving through the floodway into the Atchafalaya River basin will be released by the corps' New Orleans District office later today, said Bob Anderson, a spokesman for the corps' Mississippi Valley Division office in Vicksburg.
Walsh is commander of the division and president of the Mississippi River Commission, which gives him authority over the floodway.
Anderson also said that the floodway is likely to only be opened to allow the passage of 125,000 feet per second of water into the Atchafalaya, which is less than a fourth of the floodway's capacity and less than half of the water release originally planned.
Anderson said the smaller release is the result of new preliminiary estimates of the amount and speed of water moving downstream.
The "deliberate and slow opening of the floodway will take several days, Anderson said.
Earlier today, Gov. Bobby Jindal asked parish sheriffs and other elected officials to begin formal evacuation efforts, including door to door notifications, in areas expected to be flooded during the spillway opening.



http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/05/prepare_to_open_morganza_flood.html

[Joe-Nathan]

They have to open it b/c the structures at three rivers are at max capacity. They were not designed to last very long in those kinds of conditions.

I will probably make it up there Sunday morning. Maybe the crowds will be gone.

[Joe-Nathan]

Now this is some highly motivated people.

This is on the White River in Arkansas. The news outlets tend to focus on the Miss River only and not all the tributaries that are backing up and doing some major damage.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgKsehkcIF8

[Joe-Nathan]

This from the Farm levee breech in East Carrol ph.

Please note that this levee was built in 1912ish, was not one of the Miss River main levees and was not maintained by the U.S.C.O.E.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3535/5716979802_6ce62fabf3_z.jpg

[Joe-Nathan]

VERY IMPORTANT MAP!!!

THIS IS THE U.S.C.O.E. FLOODWATER TRAVEL TIMES ONCE THE MORGANZA IS OPENED:


http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2482/5717316240_492a491cbb_b.jpg

[ROLLTIDE]

....


La. readies to open spillway, flood Cajun country

http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/nws/p/ap_logo_106.png (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/ap/brand/SIG=11f589428/**http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ap.org%2Ftermsandconditions)




http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110513/capt.0f5c6dc7d1f34fdd8bdd3484574e2754-0f5c6dc7d1f34fdd8bdd3484574e2754-0.jpg?x=213&y=141&xc=1&yc=1&wc=410&hc=271&q=85&sig=B8JHMqmVz2l9fTdK5uVq.g-- (http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/image-provided-NASA-Saturday-May-14-2011-and-taken-Expedition/photo//110513/480/urn_publicid_ap_org0f5c6dc7d1f34fdd8bdd3484574e275 4//s:/ap/us_mississippi_river_flooding) <cite class="caption"> AP – This image provided by NASA Saturday May 14, 2011 and taken by an Expedition 27 crew member aboard the … </cite>



http://d.yimg.com/a/p/afp/20110514/thumb.photo_1305318325047-4-0.jpg?x=50&y=50&xc=23&yc=1&wc=86&hc=86&q=85&sig=p1iYW5qv2QqbeKe_4LfTfw-- (http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Mississippi-River-Flooding/ss/events/us/050311leveeblast) Slideshow:Mississippi River Flooding (http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Mississippi-River-Flooding/ss/events/us/050311leveeblast)
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/weathercom/20110514/videolthumb.a0a356760530646f8aed996c2a1916aa.jpg?x =50&y=50&xc=91&yc=1&wc=230&hc=230&q=85&sig=_fsIuqbUftu69picV3f0tg-- Play Video (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/external/wcom/av_wcom_forc/11b53613277a9cad0814475ffc3bb98b/41464117;_ylt=AjC_cmv6pU9FTtNYH4nHWGdH2ocA;_ylu=X3 oDMTFiMThoYm9oBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5bl9yXzNzbG90X3ZpZGVv BHNsawN2aWQtZXYtdGh1bWI-/*http://news.yahoo.com/video/weather-15749664/25228828) Weather Forecast Video:National Forecast (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/external/wcom/av_wcom_forc/11b53613277a9cad0814475ffc3bb98b/41464117;_ylt=Akl9.tWdNGJOnW0j7vIDJ1RH2ocA;_ylu=X3 oDMTFhaWFjbWFmBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5bl9yXzNzbG90X3ZpZGVv BHNsawN2aWQtZXYtbGluaw--/*http://news.yahoo.com/video/weather-15749664/25228828) <cite>weather.com (http://news.yahoo.com/i/2648;_ylt=AhhoB9mq.zaVOHTQmXFXMopH2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMT FiMTJlb3JuBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN5bl9yXzNzbG90X3ZpZGVvBHNs awN2aWQtZXYtcHJvdmk-)</cite>




<cite class="vcard"> By MARY FOSTER and HOLBROOK MOHR, Associated Press Mary Foster And Holbrook Mohr, Associated Press </cite> – <abbr title="2011-05-14T04:55:11-0700" class="recenttimedate">1 hr 55 mins ago</abbr>
LAKE PROVIDENCE, La. – Army engineers prepared Saturday to slowly open the gates of an emergency spillway along the rising Mississippi River, diverting floodwaters from Baton Rouge and New Orleans, yet inundating homes and farms in parts of Louisiana's populated Cajun country.
About 25,000 people and 11,000 structures could be in harm's way when the Morganza spillway is unlocked for the first time in 38 years. Sheriffs and National Guardsmen were warning people in a door-to-door sweep through the area, and shelters were ready to accept up to 4,800 evacuees, Gov. Bobby Jindal said.
Some people living in the threatened stretch of countryside — an area known for small farms, fish camps and a drawling French dialect — have already started fleeing for higher ground.
"Now's the time to evacuate," Jindal said. "Now's the time for our people to execute their plans. That water's coming."
Opening the spillway will release a torrent that could submerge about 3,000 square miles under as much as 25 feet of water in some areas but take the pressure off the downstream levees protecting New Orleans, Baton Rouge and the numerous oil refineries and chemical plants along the lower reaches of the Mississippi.
"Protecting lives is the No. 1 priority," Army Corps of Engineers Maj. Gen. Michael Walsh said at a news conference aboard a vessel on the river at Vicksburg. A few hours later, the corps made the decision to open the key spillway and inundate thousands of homes and farms in Louisiana's Cajun country to avert a potentially bigger disaster in Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
Engineers feared that weeks of pressure on the levees could cause them to fail, swamping New Orleans under as much as 20 feet of water in a disaster that would have been much worse than Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Instead, the water will flow 20 miles south into the Atchafalaya Basin. From there it will roll on to Morgan City, an oil-and-seafood hub and a community of 12,000, and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico, flooding swamps and croplands.
A sliver of land north of Morgan City, about 70 miles long and 20 miles wide, was expected to be inundated with 10- to 20-feet of water, according to Army Corps of Engineers estimates. It will take hours and days for the water to run south, and wasn't expected to reach Morgan City until around Tuesday. Still, the city has already taken steps to shore up its levee.
The corps employed a similar cities-first strategy earlier this month when it blew up a levee in Missouri — inundating an estimated 200 square miles of farmland and damaging or destroying about 100 homes — to take the pressure off the levees protecting the town of Cairo, Ill., population 2,800.
The disaster was averted in Cairo, a bottleneck where the Ohio and Mississippi rivers meet.
This intentional flood is more controlled, however, and residents are warned by the corps each year in written letters, reminding them of the possibility of opening the spillway, which is 4,000 feet long and has 125 gate bays.
The spillway, built in 1954, is part of a flood plan largely put into motion in the 1930s in the aftermath of the devastating 1927 flood that killed hundreds.
It is set to be opened when a flow rate of 1.5 million cubic feet per second is reached and projected to rise. Just north of the spillway at Red River Landing, the river had reached that flow rate, according to the National Weather Service.
To put things in perspective, corps engineer Jerry Smith crunched some numbers and found that the amount of water flowing past Vicksburg, Miss., would fill the Superdome, where the NFL's New Orleans Saints play, in 50 seconds.
This is the second spillway to be opened in Louisiana. About a week ago, the corps used cranes to remove some of the Bonnet Carre's wooden barriers, sending water into the massive Lake Ponchatrian and eventually the Gulf of Mexico.
That spillway, which the corps built about 30 miles upriver from New Orleans in response to the flood of 1927, was last opened in 2008. May 9 marked the 10th time it has been opened since the structure was completed in 1931. The spillways could be opened for weeks, or perhaps less, if the river flow starts to subside.
In Vicksburg, Miss., Warren County Sheriff Martin Pace said at least five neighborhoods have taken on water.
"We're patrolling subdivisions by boat," Pace said Friday.
Deputies are also living at Eagle Lake, a community north of Vicksburg that was evacuated and is now isolated. And U.S. Highway 61, a major north-south route has been cut off by water, affecting thousands of people, Pace said.
Meanwhile, farmers along the lower Mississippi had been expecting a big year with crop prices skyrocketing, but now many are facing ruin, with floodwaters swallowing up corn, cotton, rice and soybean fields.
In far northeastern Louisiana, where Tap Parker and about 50 other farmers filled and stacked massive sandbags along an old levee to no avail. The Mississippi flowed over the top and nearly 19 square miles of soybeans and corn, known in the industry as "green gold," was lost.
"This was supposed to be our good year. We had a chance to really catch up. Now we're scrambling to break even," said Parker, who has been farming since 1985.
Cotton prices are up 86 percent from a year ago, and corn — which is feed for livestock, a major ingredient in cereals and soft drinks, and the raw material used to produce ethanol — is up 80 percent. Soybeans have risen 39 percent. The increase is attributed, in part, to worldwide demand, crop-damaging weather elsewhere and rising production of ethanol.
While the Mississippi River flooding has not had any immediate impact on prices in the supermarket, the long-term effects are still unknown. A full damage assessment can't be made until the water has receded in many places.
Some of the estimates have been dire, though.
More than 1,500 square miles of farmland in Arkansas, which produces about half of the nation's rice, have been swamped over the past few weeks. In Missouri, where a levee was intentionally blown open to ease the flood threat in the town of Cairo, Ill., more than 200 square miles of croplands were submerged, damage that will probably exceed $100 million. More than 2,100 square miles could flood in Mississippi.
When the water level goes down — and that could take many weeks in some places — farmers can expect to find the soil washed away or their fields covered with sand. Some will probably replant on the soggy soil, but they will be behind their normal growing schedule, which could hurt yields.
Many farmers have crop insurance, but it won't be enough to cover their losses. And it won't even come close to what they could have expected with a bumper crop.
"I might get enough money from insurance to take us to a movie, but it better be dollar night," said Karsten Simrall, who lives in Redwood, Miss.
Simrall's family has farmed the low-lying fields in Redwood for five generations and has been fighting floods for years, but it's never been this bad. And the river is not expected to crest here until around Tuesday.
"How the hell do you recoup all these losses?" he said. "You just wait. It's in God's hands."
The river's rise may also force the closing of the river to shipping, from Baton Rouge to the mouth of the Mississippi, as early as next week. That would cause grain barges from the heartland to stack up along with other commodities.
If the portion is closed, the U.S. economy could lose hundreds of millions of dollars a day. In 2008, a 100-mile stretch of the river was closed for six days after a tugboat collided with a tanker, spilling about 500,000 gallons of fuel. The Port of New Orleans estimated the shutdown cost the economy up to $275 million a day.
___

[ROLLTIDE]

...


Civil Emergency Message

<hr>
LAC007-047-057-077-109-150000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LOUISIANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
LOUISIANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

...EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM THE STATE OF LOUISIANA...

AVOYELLES...POINT COUPEE...ST LANDRY...ST
MARTIN...IBERVILLE...IBERIA...ASSUMPTION...ST
MARY...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE

DUE TO THE HIGH WATER IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE U S ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS HAS OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED THEY WILL OPEN THE
MORGANZA SPILLWAY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLOODING WILL OCCUR
IN THE SPILLWAY AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CITIZENS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO INFORMATION FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE MEDIA FOR
UPDATES AND FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS.

$$</pre>

[ROLLTIDE]

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will open the first bay of Louisiana's Morganza Spillway at 3 p.m. Saturday (4 p.m. ET), Col. Ed Fleming said.

The move is aimed at lowering anticipated cresting levels along the rising Mississippi River and divert water from Baton Rouge and New Orleans.


The move would flood parts of low-lying south-central Louisiana.
>+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=

[Joe-Nathan]

I was out today doing some recon for before and after photos. I have never really seen the water as high as it is now in the Atch river north of Butte LaRose. The amount of water that is moving by is amazing.

Now I will be making a trip tomorrow up to Morganza then work my way back down. The water in Henderson is way up already, but I have seen it higher. It is supposed to get another 15 or so feet higher by next weekend. This will put the water about halfway up the western Levees. I pray they hold!!!

[Joe-Nathan]

This is NOT good:

Barges Hit Baton Rouge Bridge


BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) - Twenty-five barges under tow on the Mississippi River broke loose north of a highway bridge at Baton Rouge and two of them hit the bridge before they were contained.

Jodi Conachen, a state transportation department spokeswoman, said the U.S. Highway 190 bridge was closed after the Saturday afternoon accident so a thorough inspection could be made. It was unclear when the bridge would re-open.

What caused the barges to break loose was not clear. Coast Guard Petty Officer Casey Ranel said said they all have been contained and no injuries were reported.

[nightrider]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITZZBsv2x18


The flooding begins

[Joe-Nathan]

Did any one see the footage of the little rabbit escaping the flood at the spillway? I saw it on the news, but can not find it on internet.

[Joe-Nathan]

Rounds of heavy Miss. Valley rain could prolong flood conditions

http://matchbin-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/public/sites/993/assets/KVM3_300x200_05161629_misscrests_2_0


AccuWeather.com reports the weather pattern is likely to continue to bring rounds of heavy rain to part of the Mississippi Valley in the coming several weeks, which could mean very slow recovery from flood conditions in Louisiana.

The dry weather hovering over the Mississippi Valley to start the week is helping, but a lot more help is needed into the summer from Mother Nature.

The concern for a dose of heavy rain late this week continues as a storm now impacting the West migrates slowly eastward.

The latest indications are that this rain may aim over portions of Arkansas and Missouri over the weekend.

The Mississippi River at Memphis is likely to remain above flood stage until early June, even without significant rainfall.

Many locations along the lower Mississippi River are in the same boat, no pun intended.

However, since the rounds of moisture-rich storms are likely to continue to feed in from the West for the next several weeks, the potential for pockets of heavy rain will continue.

While this rainfall is not likely to lead to new record levels of flooding, it will tend to prolong the above-normal water levels and could keep flood waters lingering in some locations well into the summer.

The Mississippi River drains most of the middle of the U.S. and includes major rivers such as the Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Des Moines and the Red River of the South.

These tributaries are likely to be hit with episodes of heavy rain amounting to up to several inches in some cases.

In turn, the runoff from the events, although not as concentrated nor as intense as that of late April, will be enough to bring periodic rises on these tributaries.

The flow downstream could then slow or stall recession, or perhaps even lead to modest secondary rises on the Mississippi.

One thing that will tend to work in favor of those hoping to get back into their homes and begin the cleanup process is higher evaporation rates during the summer.

Strong sunshine, long days and higher temperatures will pull moisture out of the ground leaving less water available to run off into streams and rivers.

We have to get the rain to shut off for a long enough period to get all or most of the tributary rivers back down.

Just as this begins to happen, along comes another rain event it seems.

As a result, the normally slow recession of the Mississippi could be agonizingly slow in some areas.

Read more: TecheToday.com - Rounds of heavy Miss Valley rain could prolong flood conditions

[Joe-Nathan]

Temporary gauge on Hwy 190 about half way b/w atch river and eastern protection levee:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/la/nwis/uv/?site_no=303314091414900&PARAmeter_cd=00065,72020,63160,00060

http://137.227.232.146/nwisweb/data/img/USGS.303314091414900.01.00065..20110511.20110518.. 0..gif

[Joe-Nathan]

THIS NOT GOOD FOR MORGAN CITY:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011


SPRING TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT TWO TO THREE FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. TIDES WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

[dkmac]

From Jeff Master's blogpost on Friday:



Mississippi River flood of 2011 sets all-time flow record, but has crested
<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 9:43 AM CDT on May 20, 2011</TD><TD id=pluscontain_1806>http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/ico_plus_green.gif</TD><TD>http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/ico_alert_red.gif</TD><TD>[/URL] (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1806#)
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> (function($){ $("div#socialWeather > a[id^='social']").each(function(index) { $(this).hover( function () { $(this).parent().css('background-position','0px -' +(26*(index+1))+ 'px'); }, function () { $(this).parent().css('background-position','0px 0px'); }); }); })(jQuery); </SCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The great Mississippi River flood of 2011 crested yesterday and today, and the volume of water being pushed toward the Gulf of Mexico is the largest ever recorded on the Mississippi, [URL="http://www.npr.org/2011/05/19/136464035/high-water-doesnt-mark-an-end-for-flood-victims?ps=cprs"]said (http://rss.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rss.xml) Bob Anderson, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers for the Mississippi Valley Division. "It's never been this high; it's never had this much water," he said. "There's just a tremendous amount of strain on these levees." The Mississippi crested yesterday at Vicksburg, Mississippi, (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/river.php?wfo=jan&wfoid=18743&riverid=203833&view=1%2C1%2C1%2C1%2C1%2C1%2C1%2C1&toggles=10%2C7%2C8%2C2%2C9%2C15%2C6&pt[]=144619&allpoints=143846%2C142736%2C143816%2C143998%2C1451 44%2C142659%2C142234%2C145887%2C144081%2C142375%2C 143866%2C141506%2C142962%2C143885%2C143323%2C14420 1%2C144542%2C142873%2C143260%2C143099%2C142560%2C1 44186%2C143177%2C142054%2C143945%2C144055%2C141370 %2C143630%2C141931%2C142812%2C141676%2C142534%2C14 4568%2C143535%2C144589%2C143030%2C144031%2C143079% 2C144282%2C141445%2C141722%2C141383%2C143445%2C143 646%2C143787%2C143574%2C143545%2C142773%2C141629%2 C144517%2C142500%2C143196%2C142105%2C142509%2C1424 18%2C144108%2C141463%2C141839%2C143934%2C141618%2C 146423%2C143366%2C142172%2C141493%2C142940%2C14461 9%2C144798%2C144609%2C141308%2C144449%2C143828%2C1 42711&data[]=all&submit=Make+my+River+Page!) reaching 57.06'. This exceeded the previous all-time record of 56.2', set during the great flood of 1927. The river crested at Natchez, Mississippi early this morning, and is now falling. The flood height at Natchez was also the greatest on record--61.91', nearly three feet higher than the previous record height of 58', set in 1937. The opening of the Morganza Spillway on Saturday helped to reduce the flood heights from Vicksburg to New Orleans by 1 - 3 feet, greatly reducing the pressure on the levees and on the critical Old River Control Structure (which, as I discussed last Friday (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1801), is America's Achilles' heel, and must be protected.) According the National Weather Service (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississippiandohioriverforecast), the Mississippi River is no longer rising anywhere along its length, and the great flood of 2011 has likely seen its peak. Rainfall over the next five days (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml) will not be enough to raise the Mississippi River water levels above the crests recorded yesterday and today. While it is great news that the flood has peaked, and the Old River Control Structure and all of the mainline levees on the Mississippi River have held, the fight is not over yet. Water levels will stay high for many weeks, and these structures will take a sustained pounding that could still cause failures. If another incredible heavy rain event like we experienced in mid-April occurs in June, the levee system and Old River Control Structure will threatened. Let's hope we don't have an early season Gulf of Mexico tropical storm that makes landfall over Louisiana. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=05%2F20%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All) is not hinting at anything like this, fortunately. It's a good thing (for the sake of the levees) that Louisiana experienced severe drought over the winter and spring--had the water levels been high throughout winter and spring, like occurred in the run-up to the great 1927 flood, the levees would have been soggy and much more vulnerable to failure once the big flood crest hit.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2011/may19_orcs.gif
Figure 1. The flow of the Mississippi River past the Old River Control Structure near Simmesport, Louisiana reached its all-time highest volume on record Thursday, when the flow rate hit 2.3 million cubic feet per second (cfs). The flow of Niagara Falls at normal water levels is 100,000 cfs, so the Mississippi's flow was 23 times that of Niagara Falls. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers. (http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/eng/edhd/lat.gif)

<B><BIG>Recommended reading</B></BIG>
My post on the Old River Control Structure, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River Old River Control Structure (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1801), is well worth reading, if you haven't done so. I plan on making a follow-up post next week discussing the economic cost of the failure of this critical flood-control structure.

[wcmi92]

I'm just glad the Ohio wasn't part of this... We had a minor flood on the Ohio a month ago, our floodwalls took it. It was the highest it was since the last major flood in 1997.

[Joe-Nathan]

Looks like it is the Missouri Rivers turn.

Pretty dire predictions here:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/opinion/article_2b1eeca2-e701-51dd-83c2-f7bcc81845a4.html

Guest commentary: The looming Missouri dam flood


BY: Bernard Shanks | Posted: Tuesday, June 7, 2011 12:00 am | (12) Comments


There is very real threat of a flood that will leave St. Louis in chest-high water. The reason: Six old, huge, faulty dams that normally have reserve space for spring snow melt are nearly full now — before the spring floods start. Floodgates that haven't been opened in 50 years have begun to open. Flooding has begun. And the human and economic toll could be ghastly.

Why another flood disaster? Six dams from Fort Peck in Montana to Gavins Point in South Dakota, authorized by the Flood Control Act of 1944, are in the process of failing at flood control. With spring water levels low, they can hold back more than three years of average Missouri River flow — enough to stop the worst floods and protect 750 miles of the Missouri River valley and heartland cities. This year, that is not the case.

Let me give you a sense of scale. These reservoirs are massive. Four of the nation's 10 largest reservoirs are along the Missouri River — Fort Peck, Fort Randall, Garrison and Oahe. Three of these had less than five feet of total storage space behind the floodgates at the end of May. With a combined height of 700 feet, these three dams are nearly full. Melting snow surely will complete the task.

With cities from Wolf Point, Mont., to St. Louis facing record levels of water, hundreds of thousands of people are threatened by the unprecedented opening of floodgates. The greatest fear is the massive Fort Peck Dam, a hydraulic-fill dam that is the largest of its kind.

The Fort Peck Dam is built with a flawed design that has suffered a well-known fate for this type of dam — liquefaction — in which saturated soil loses its stability. Hydraulic-fill dams are prone to almost instant collapse from stress or earthquakes. California required all hydraulic-fill dams be torn out or rebuilt — and no other large dams have been built this way since.

At three miles wide, Fort Peck Dam last opened its floodgates 36 years ago. By the end of the first week in June, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will be releasing a record spill of water. The corps recently answered the question of possible failure with a statement the dam is "absolutely safe." It may be the largest at-risk dam in the nation.

Downstream, Garrison Dam never has had to use its floodgates since the dam was constructed 50 years ago. By mid-June, the corps plans to dump water equal to a good-sized river. The same is true for Oahe Dam, the next one downstream. Since the reservoirs are nearly full, the corps has no choice.

Effective flood control from six large dams is no longer an option. As a corps representative said, "It now moves us into uncharted territory."

We must all pose a question of national significance to the corps: What if Fort Peck Dam should fail?

Here is a likely scenario: Garrison, Oahe and three other downstream earthen dams would have to catch and hold a massive amount of water, an area covering nearly 250 square miles 100 feet deep. But earthen dams, when overtopped with floodwater, do not stand. They break and erode away, usually within an hour. All are full.

There is a possibility a failure of Fort Peck Dam could lead to a domino-like collapse of all five downstream dams. It probably would wreck every bridge, highway, pipeline and power line and split the heartland of the nation, leaving a gap 1,500 miles wide. Countless sewage treatment plants, toxic waste sites and even Superfund sites would be flushed downstream. The death toll and blow to our economy would be ghastly.

Years after Katrina and the New Orleans levee breaks, professional engineers and a federal court judge ruled theCorps of Engineers was to blame.

Are we once again at the brink of a massive corps failure? The corps is infamous for management errors, caving to commercial pressure and losing sight of its primary mission. This pending threat is so huge that it is gambling with the nation's security.

The corps is placing the nation at risk, and if the dams fail, Leon Panetta, who will become secretary of Defense later this month, will have the great Missouri Flood Disaster on his desk. And the entire nation will demand answers as to why the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers did not avert disaster with more economically and ecologically sound methods of flood prevention.

Bernard Shanks, an adviser to the Resource Renewal Institute, has studied the six main-stem Missouri River dams for more than four decades. He has worked for the U.S. Geological Survey and served as director of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. He has written three books on public land policy and is completing a book on the hazards of the Missouri River dams.

[dkmac]

Thanks for the story J-N. We were planning to stay in St. Joseph, MO on our return trip from Minnesota. I'm going to plan a route that stays east of the Miss river until we're below St. Louis.

[Joe-Nathan]

Here is a link to some Missouri flooding aerial photos:

https://picasaweb.google.com/104592539075472798431/TheGreatMissouriRiverFloodOf2011