Joe-Nathan
04-02-2012, 10:52 AM
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A LARGE PART OF TX N AND
NE INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX UPR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL LARGELY TIED TO UPR SYSTEM NOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THE LOW SHOULD ELONGATE W-E AS IT DRIFTS ESE ACROSS NM
LATER TODAY/TNGT. ONE OF THE RESULTING VORT LOBES ALREADY IS
BECOMING APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM OVER SRN NM. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT NNE ACROSS W TX LATER TODAY...AND NWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE TNGT...AS UPSTREAM LOBE MOVES S ACROSS AZ.
SE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW...VWP AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A
FAIRLY BROAD MCV HAS EVOLVED OVER S CNTRL/SE TX FROM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT CROSSED THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALSO LINGERING IN THE
AREA IS REMNANT OF THE SMALL UPR LVL CIRCULATION THAT FORMED OVER
THE TX GULF CST YESTERDAY. THE COMBINED CIRCULATIONS SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND LA/AR LATER
TODAY/TNGT AS THEY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL
FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW.
FARTHER N...NRN PART OF TROUGH THAT GAVE BIRTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK E ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE ERN GULF CST TO THE UPR GRT LKS. EWD MOTION
OF THE MT/DAKOTAS IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY EWD ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN WI TO CNTRL MO BY 12Z TUE. A
MORE COMPLEX SFC EVOLUTION LIKELY WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLNS.
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED NM VORT LOBE SHOULD DRIVE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE E/NE ACROSS W CNTRL TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTN...WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS QSTNRY NEAR AMA. FARTHER
S...COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT S TX MCS LIKELY WILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING INFLUENCE ON LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT PATTERNS FROM S
CNTRL TX NEWD INTO LA.
...W TX NNE INTO WRN/CNTRL KS AND SE NEB THIS AFTN/EVE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS ALONG AN ARC FROM W CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...SW KS...N
CNTRL KS...AND SE NEB LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING DRY LINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
EVOLUTION OF STORMS AND THEIR ATTENDANT SVR THREATS WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE VARIABLE WIND FIELDS THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH SPACE AND TIME AS NM VORT LOBE PIVOTS NE ACROSS
REGION. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF
DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM WRN N TX N AND NNW
THROUGH WRN OK INTO SW KS LATE THIS AFTN. EARLY PASSAGE OF THE VORT
LOBE IN TX ADDS A FURTHER COMPLICATION TO THE SITUATION. BUT
OVERALL COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT...STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 2500-3500 J PER
KG/...AND WIND PROFILES THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT
NONETHELESS.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL
ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN SW KS AND WRN OK WHERE
LOW LVL WINDS ARE APT TO REMAIN BACKED NE OF TX PANHANDLE SFC LOW.
FARTHER N...MORE SLOWLY-MOVING PORTION OF COLD FRONT IN NRN KS AND
SE NEB SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THE
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO TWO OR THREE CLUSTERS THIS EVE...WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND.
...E TX INTO MUCH OF LA/AR LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
SFC HEATING OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM S TX MCV WILL LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF E TX...LA...AND AR LATER
TODAY...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 /KG. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE N TO NE-MOVING CIRCULATION SHOULD FOSTER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY MODEST /AROUND 30 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD SCTD STRONG
TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE STORM
INTERACTIONS AND/OR SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN EXPECTED STORM
CLUSTERS/BANDS...A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR WEAK
TORNADOES.
...ERN KY/TN INTO WRN NC/SC/ERN GA THIS AFTN...
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIED OVER THE NERN U.S.
LATE YESTERDAY SHOULD ADVANCE S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...WHILE WRN PORTION BECOMES STNRY OVER THE LWR OH
VLY. WEAK TO MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND
S OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED FROM ERN KY SSE INTO
SC. MODERATE NWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD YIELD MAINLY PULSE
STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/ISOLD DMGG
GUSTS.
...MN/IA INTO WI/IL/IND THROUGH PERIOD...
MOST OF THE UPR MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST WILL REMAIN BENEATH UPR RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODIC EPISODES OF ENHANCED WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROUNDS OF ELEVATED STORMS... ESPECIALLY
LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
REGION. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL...MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER.
..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/02/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1546Z (10:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A LARGE PART OF TX N AND
NE INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX UPR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL LARGELY TIED TO UPR SYSTEM NOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THE LOW SHOULD ELONGATE W-E AS IT DRIFTS ESE ACROSS NM
LATER TODAY/TNGT. ONE OF THE RESULTING VORT LOBES ALREADY IS
BECOMING APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM OVER SRN NM. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT NNE ACROSS W TX LATER TODAY...AND NWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE TNGT...AS UPSTREAM LOBE MOVES S ACROSS AZ.
SE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW...VWP AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A
FAIRLY BROAD MCV HAS EVOLVED OVER S CNTRL/SE TX FROM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT CROSSED THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALSO LINGERING IN THE
AREA IS REMNANT OF THE SMALL UPR LVL CIRCULATION THAT FORMED OVER
THE TX GULF CST YESTERDAY. THE COMBINED CIRCULATIONS SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND LA/AR LATER
TODAY/TNGT AS THEY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL
FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW.
FARTHER N...NRN PART OF TROUGH THAT GAVE BIRTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK E ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE ERN GULF CST TO THE UPR GRT LKS. EWD MOTION
OF THE MT/DAKOTAS IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY EWD ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN WI TO CNTRL MO BY 12Z TUE. A
MORE COMPLEX SFC EVOLUTION LIKELY WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLNS.
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED NM VORT LOBE SHOULD DRIVE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE E/NE ACROSS W CNTRL TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTN...WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS QSTNRY NEAR AMA. FARTHER
S...COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT S TX MCS LIKELY WILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING INFLUENCE ON LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT PATTERNS FROM S
CNTRL TX NEWD INTO LA.
...W TX NNE INTO WRN/CNTRL KS AND SE NEB THIS AFTN/EVE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS ALONG AN ARC FROM W CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...SW KS...N
CNTRL KS...AND SE NEB LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING DRY LINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
EVOLUTION OF STORMS AND THEIR ATTENDANT SVR THREATS WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE VARIABLE WIND FIELDS THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH SPACE AND TIME AS NM VORT LOBE PIVOTS NE ACROSS
REGION. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF
DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM WRN N TX N AND NNW
THROUGH WRN OK INTO SW KS LATE THIS AFTN. EARLY PASSAGE OF THE VORT
LOBE IN TX ADDS A FURTHER COMPLICATION TO THE SITUATION. BUT
OVERALL COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT...STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 2500-3500 J PER
KG/...AND WIND PROFILES THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT
NONETHELESS.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL
ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN SW KS AND WRN OK WHERE
LOW LVL WINDS ARE APT TO REMAIN BACKED NE OF TX PANHANDLE SFC LOW.
FARTHER N...MORE SLOWLY-MOVING PORTION OF COLD FRONT IN NRN KS AND
SE NEB SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THE
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO TWO OR THREE CLUSTERS THIS EVE...WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND.
...E TX INTO MUCH OF LA/AR LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
SFC HEATING OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM S TX MCV WILL LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF E TX...LA...AND AR LATER
TODAY...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 /KG. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE N TO NE-MOVING CIRCULATION SHOULD FOSTER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY MODEST /AROUND 30 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD SCTD STRONG
TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE STORM
INTERACTIONS AND/OR SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN EXPECTED STORM
CLUSTERS/BANDS...A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR WEAK
TORNADOES.
...ERN KY/TN INTO WRN NC/SC/ERN GA THIS AFTN...
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIED OVER THE NERN U.S.
LATE YESTERDAY SHOULD ADVANCE S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...WHILE WRN PORTION BECOMES STNRY OVER THE LWR OH
VLY. WEAK TO MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND
S OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED FROM ERN KY SSE INTO
SC. MODERATE NWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD YIELD MAINLY PULSE
STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/ISOLD DMGG
GUSTS.
...MN/IA INTO WI/IL/IND THROUGH PERIOD...
MOST OF THE UPR MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST WILL REMAIN BENEATH UPR RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODIC EPISODES OF ENHANCED WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROUNDS OF ELEVATED STORMS... ESPECIALLY
LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
REGION. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL...MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER.
..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/02/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1546Z (10:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME