ROLLTIDE
08-10-2004, 07:10 AM
Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 10, 2004
...Depression upgraded to third tropical storm of the season...
Interests in the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system.
A tropical storm watch may be required for Jamaica later this
morning.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 13.0 north...longitude 66.3 west or about
450 miles... 725 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the
Dominican Republic.
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph...39 km/hr.
This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...13.0 N... 66.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin
Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 10, 2004
the deep convection that formed near the center overnight has
persisted during the past few hours as the cyclone appears to be
getting better organized. While outer bands of deep convection are
currently minimal but increasing...the circulation occupies a large
envelope and outflow is excellent in all directions. Dvorak ci
numbers are a consensus 2.5...and on this basis the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley with an intensity of 35 kt.
Charley continues to speed along at 285/21...slightly faster than
previously...perhaps in part due to the increased depth of the
convection. Most track guidance indicates that this
west-northwestward motion should continue for about the next two
days...with steering provided by the subtropical ridge centered
north of the Greater Antilles. However...the models diverge
thereafter as Charley reaches a weakness in the ridge caused by a
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. While the
NOGAPS...GFDL...and UKMET now take the system over the Yucatan
Peninsula...well to the left of the previous forecast...the GFS
takes Charley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico at days four and
five. Given the wide spread...the official forecast is nudged only
slightly to the left of the previous forecast...and a little faster
given the current motion.
The environment ahead of Charley is quite favorable...with very weak
vertical shear and an increasingly warm ocean. The GFDL makes
Charley a hurricane within three days...and ships does so in less
than two days. The official forecast is closer to the GFDL
intensity guidance...but indicates more intensification than the
previous advisory due to the improving organization of the system.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/0900z 13.0n 66.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 13.9n 69.3w 40 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 15.0n 72.9w 45 kt
36hr VT 11/1800z 16.3n 76.2w 50 kt
48hr VT 12/0600z 17.5n 79.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 13/0600z 19.5n 82.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 14/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 88.0w 80 kt
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200403_5day.gif
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 10, 2004
...Depression upgraded to third tropical storm of the season...
Interests in the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system.
A tropical storm watch may be required for Jamaica later this
morning.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 13.0 north...longitude 66.3 west or about
450 miles... 725 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the
Dominican Republic.
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph...39 km/hr.
This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...13.0 N... 66.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin
Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 10, 2004
the deep convection that formed near the center overnight has
persisted during the past few hours as the cyclone appears to be
getting better organized. While outer bands of deep convection are
currently minimal but increasing...the circulation occupies a large
envelope and outflow is excellent in all directions. Dvorak ci
numbers are a consensus 2.5...and on this basis the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley with an intensity of 35 kt.
Charley continues to speed along at 285/21...slightly faster than
previously...perhaps in part due to the increased depth of the
convection. Most track guidance indicates that this
west-northwestward motion should continue for about the next two
days...with steering provided by the subtropical ridge centered
north of the Greater Antilles. However...the models diverge
thereafter as Charley reaches a weakness in the ridge caused by a
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. While the
NOGAPS...GFDL...and UKMET now take the system over the Yucatan
Peninsula...well to the left of the previous forecast...the GFS
takes Charley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico at days four and
five. Given the wide spread...the official forecast is nudged only
slightly to the left of the previous forecast...and a little faster
given the current motion.
The environment ahead of Charley is quite favorable...with very weak
vertical shear and an increasingly warm ocean. The GFDL makes
Charley a hurricane within three days...and ships does so in less
than two days. The official forecast is closer to the GFDL
intensity guidance...but indicates more intensification than the
previous advisory due to the improving organization of the system.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/0900z 13.0n 66.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 13.9n 69.3w 40 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 15.0n 72.9w 45 kt
36hr VT 11/1800z 16.3n 76.2w 50 kt
48hr VT 12/0600z 17.5n 79.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 13/0600z 19.5n 82.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 14/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 88.0w 80 kt
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200403_5day.gif