MECS possible this weekend!

[LI Phil]

still too early to say for certain, but there is significant probability of a major east coast storm this weekend...stay tuned

[The Bug]

I should go up north .... seriously, that sucks.

[Stormlover]

Yep,once again I'll probably barely miss out..maybe a little dusting after the rain,but just north of me,some real snow

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusitypremium/2006/henry.jpg

[LI Phil]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
407 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006
407 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006

...POTENTIALLY POTENT WINTER STORM LIKELY TO EFFECT THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEAR CAPE COD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM...THIS COUPLED WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORM...COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO FALL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND HOW
CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WILL TRACK. IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE LESS SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...A TRACK FURTHER INLAND COULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS TO INLAND AREAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

[Stormlover]

6AM SAt:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/prog48hr.gif

[shibumi]

GFS throws more wrap-around possibilities as the low deepens and travels NE

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs060hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

[Stormlover]

:drink: /yeathat

[Jason234]

NWS is playing their game already with the on and off snow chances for each sucessive model run. Waste of people's time.

[Stormlover]

looks like 2 plus inches here by sat am
http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_42HR.gif

[LI Phil]

452 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AND NEAR NEW YORK CITY...AND ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

[LI Phil]

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER OLD MEXICO SHEARS EASTWARD OUT AHEAD AND INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS OVER TX TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN ON SAT FOLLOWED BY RAPID INTENSIFICATION SAT NIGHT AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM KEEP THIS LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 50-100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. ALL IN ALL...MODELS ARE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES LATE SAT NIGHT... SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY...AND 55-65 KT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS WITH GOOD
MIXING POTENTIAL NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO WILL GO WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS INCLUDING NYC AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR INLAND SECTIONS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES AND JUST AFTER DARK FAR NORTHERN ZONES...AND COUPLED H3 JET STRUCTURE ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION OF -10C TO -20C...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. INITIAL ESTIMATES ARE FOR A 6-12 INCH SNOWFALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...AND ALSO NORTHWEST OF ANY COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT. THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NYC AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWER TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND WHERE PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF ANY COASTAL FRONT. IF THE FARTHER OFFSHORE UKMET/ECMWF AND NOW 06Z NAM SCENARIO PANS OUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE LOWER TOTALS...BUT STILL ON THE CUSP OF WARNING CRITERIA.

[Stormlover]

Wish I was there.We have a Winter Storm Watch later tonight and should at least see some accumulation for the first time in several years./jumpforjo

[LI Phil]

NE CITIES IN CROSSHAIRS OF WEEKEND NOR'EASTER
Posted: Friday, February 10, 2006 at 7:19 AM EST


by AccuWeather.com News Director Steve Penstone

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_400x300c/SIR/inmaSIRne.gif (http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-regional.asp?level=regional&site=ne&type=SIR&anim=loop)
AccuWeather.com is forecasting this weekend's blizzard will hit the major cities in the Northeast.

The AccuWeather.com Winter Center meteorologists are forecasting a change in the storm track of this developing system. Senior Meteorologist Gerald Mohler says the track has shifted to the south and east, putting the major urban centers of the East Coast in the middle of the heaviest band of snowfall. The heart of the storm will hit the area from northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia, across Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey and southern New York, and finally southern New England.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws0_430.jpg
As the timeline shows, this system will start to spread snow into Tennessee and Kentucky by tonight, moving into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City will see the heavy snow late on Saturday into Sunday, and Boston and New England get the worst of the winter blast on Sunday.

While this storm is forecast to bring heavy snow to the Northeast there are a couple of factors that will mitigate its impact. First is that it will hit the Northeast on a weekend. Secondly, according to Mohler this will be a fast moving storm, passing through most locations in 10 to 12 hours. Because this is forecast to be a fast-moving storm that will mean it will also be a powerful system, dumping an inch or more an hour in some areas.

As with any Nor'easter the wind will also be a factor with this storm. Coastal gales will whip the snow into bands of whiteout conditions, creating hazardous driving conditions. Mohler says the worst areas for blowing and drifting snow will be along the coast from New Jersey to New England. There is also the potential for coastal flooding during high tide. While this storm will produce major snowfall amounts, Mohler says the storm will not produce the heavy, wet snow that has the potential to snap tree limbs and down power lines.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws6_430.jpg
AccuWeather.com is forecasting this weekend storm will usher in a major change in the weather. Temperatures across Texas and the Deep South will fall today and Saturday, with highs in the 50's and overnight lows close to or below freezing. Expert Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is forecasting widespread cold weather across the country next week. The cold arctic air flowing south will collide with warmer air over the southern U.S., setting up the potential for increased storm activity across the South Central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and the East Coast. The Southwest, and in particular Southern California, will be the nation's hot spot over the next week to ten days, with sunshine and temperatures in the 70's in the forecast.

[shibumi]

http://img425.imageshack.us/img425/5654/36hr1200utcsat6ev.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Stormlover]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Huntsville Al
431 Am Cst Fri Feb 10 2006

...snow Accumulations Possible North Of The Tennessee River Tonight...

.a Surface Low Will Move East Across Southern Alabama Tonight And
Spread A Shield Of Precipitation Northward Over The Tennessee
Valley. As Cold Air To The North Is Drawn Into Southern Middle
Tennessee And Northern Alabama This Evening...conditions Will Become
Favorable For A Changeover From Rain To Snow. The Snow Could
Accumulate To 1 To 3 Inches By Daybreak Saturday Across Southern
Middle Tennessee...and In The Higher Terrain Of North Alabama Near
The Tennessee Border.

Alz001-005-006-009-tnz076-096-097-111200-
/o.new.khun.ws.a.0001.060211t0000z-060211t1200z/
Lauderdale-limestone-madison-jackson-moore-lincoln-franklin Tn-
Including The Cities Of...florence...athens...huntsville...
Scottsboro...lynchburg...fayetteville...winchester
431 Am Cst Fri Feb 10 2006

...winter Storm Watch In Effect From This Evening Through Late
Tonight...

The National Weather Service In Huntsville Has Issued A Winter
Storm Watch...which Is In Effect From 6 Pm Cst This Evening
Through 6 Am Cst Saturday.

Rain Will Begin Later This Afternoon Across Northern Alabama And
Southern Middle Tennessee. As Cold Air Is Drawn In From The North
This Evening...a Changeover To All Snow Is Expected.

The Best Chance Of Accumulating Snow Will Be Across Southern
Middle Tennessee...and The Higher Terrain Of Northern Alabama Near
The Tennessee Border. By Daybreak Saturday...snow Accumulations Of
1 To 3 Inches Are Possible Across That Area. Elsewhere Along And
North Of The Tennessee River...snow Accumulations Of Up To One
Inch Are Possible.

The Snow Accumulation Will Depend Mainly On Temperatures Tonight.
Based On The Projected Path Of The Surface Low...the Temperatures
Are Forecast To Drop To Around Freezing Overnight In The Watch
Area. A Shift In The Track Of The Low To The North Would Result In
Warmer Temperatures And Lesser Snow Accumulation.

Interests Across The Tennessee Valley Are Encouraged To Monitor
Their Weather Radio Or News Sources For Updates On This Potential
Snow Event.

Remember...a Winter Storm Watch Means Conditions Are Favorable
For Hazardous Winter Weather In And Close To The Watch Area.

$$

Schaub

Should change to snow by midnight here:

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/SNOWcast/usa_d1_06.jpg

[Stormlover]

Heavy snow warning down to the Ala/Tenn line now/licklips (that's the purple)

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wwamap/png/us.png

[LI Phil]

1114 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS LATE SUNDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD AVERAGE 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AND NEAR NEW YORK CITY...AND ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

[Daniel294]

Heavy snow warning down to the Ala/Tenn line now/licklips (that's the purple)

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wwamap/png/us.pngWhat's the maroon? That's over me.... red flag warning maybe?

[Stormlover]

if you are talking about the Florida red/pink color,yes it is a Red Flag Warning

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

[LI Phil]

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.