Long Island New York

[Jason234]

Been pretty windy all day today and cloudy with some showers, sustained winds were at 25 with gusts up to 30, average for us. The past couple of days were nightmarish, yesterday we got some crazy thunderstorm that brought winds up to 60 mph winds, some melted hail, some thunder and vivid lightening. The storm created a low off the carolina outer banks area that rode right up to us. The next couple of days should have high's topping out in the upper 50's max, with another system rolling in. This one should be quite powerful but with all the dry aloft I'm not to confident...though it will bring some heavy rain with wind, like they always do. October is nicknamed the month of darkness for Long Island because you rarely get sun, and people remain in there houses. That's a sneak preview to what the weather is up here, what about you guys?

[Jason234]

For all you folks in the mid-atlantic states watch out. Right now, a piece of energy has broken off the jet stream and is creating a southerly wind flow, generating warm advection. With that high in place over much on the norheast, there should be a boundary setting up; which right now is really ramping up. The area of low pressure is forecasted to remain in the strength range of a moderate gale, but because of this very moist air and this super dry air, it will
1. enhance convection.
and
2. generate the possiblity for severe weather.
Some thunderstorms associated with this system are severe and may produce minimal tornados. If you notice rotation in the clouds, or a very interesting cloud formation and it is on the increase, please prepare for a very strong thunderstorm. Some will have the possiblity for wind damage and large hail.

[LI Phil]

Coldest day of the season so far today...temps barely cracked the freezing point. It'll get warmer the next couple of days as we prepare for the Sunday event (see the Winter Weather forum for info on that). Temps in the 40s and generally sunny skies will be the rule for the next few days...then, it may be time to hunker down...more on that to follow.

[LI Phil]

Temps were in the teens to start the day, but felt much more like zero or below because of strong winds that were causing wind chills.

That windy weather is going to stick around until into Monday night, when it will die down.

Tuesday is not as harsh at all. Temps will rise into the thirties, and we'll have a mix of sun and clouds. Lows will only drop to around freezing, a big difference from the teens we saw overnight into Monday.

Wednesday we get even milder, with temperatures pushing up to nearly 50 degrees and a mostly cloudy day.

Thursday we will be in the low 50's with rain for the day, and lows above freezing at about 38 degrees. Friday skies will clear and we'll have a partly sunny day with highs around 41 degrees.

[Jason234]

Right now it's 8 degrees dropping off fast, and grant you it's only 4:37!!

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement As of 3:53 PM EST on December 20, 2004

... Wind chill temperatures zero to 5 below this evening...

Cold temperatures combined with blustery northwest winds will result
in wind chill temperatures around zero or a few degrees below this
evening. The winds will gradually diminish tonight. As a result...
the wind chill temperatures should be in the single digits overnight.
Be sure to dress for the cold if you are venturing out tonight.

[LI Phil]

Today will be warmer by 25 or so degrees than yesterday, up to a whopping 38!

Wednesday we'll see temps in the low 50's and a mix of sun and clouds. Lows will only drop a few degrees to about 48 overnight.


Thursday is very rainy and we'll have heavy clouds all day, but you may not mind since it's also pretty darn warm with high temperatures around 55 degrees.

Friday is partly sunny and mild, 42 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. There is the chance that a storm could back into our area, and give us snow flurries for Christmas Eve night. Right now that's only about a 30 percent chance, but it could happen in time for the holiday. Christmas Day on Saturday is looking nice, with partly sunny skies and a high around 30 degrees.

[LI Phil]

Our normal high this time of year is around 40 degrees and we will surpass that on Wednesday when we could see temps close to 50 degrees. We'll have a partly sunny day.

Thursday is a very rainy day, and if you are traveling be warned you there is a band of snow that could affect your trip if you're headed anywhere in the general direction of the Cleveland or Detroit areas.

For the rest of us Thursday is very rainy and mild, with highs in the upper 50's.

Friday we get a mix of sun and clouds and temps in the forties before the next cold snap hits.

That cold air is back in time for Christmas day, when we'll only have highs around 28 degrees. There is the chance of a flurry, but no accumulating snow in the forecast. Sunday stays cold, in the 30's and we'll have partly cloudy skies.

[LI Phil]

We could even hear thunderstorms on Thursday as the front moves through. It'll be an all-day rain, one that gets heavier as the afternoon goes on. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 50's.

Friday the rain is gone and we get back to more seasonable temperatures with partly cloudy skies and temps in the 40's. Friday night the next wave of colder air moves in. We'll see temps drop down all the way into the upper 20's for a high on Saturday. There's the chance of some flurries on Christmas day.

[Jason234]

If there any other Long Island listeners out there ive a shout out! Anyhow, looks like 2 more warm sector storms and then with the ridging in place, we could see significant snow on the New Years Weekend! See, what's happening is that a trof is forecasting to ride over the canadian ridge, but while doing so it let's some energy cut-off. Oddly enough most of the models are going bezerk with it, pumping the ridge in eastern U.S, hence the above average temperatures. Later in the time period it will once again regain the wintery pattern, like step 1 down 2 steps up, only this time were going to make some progress. The pattern will become progressive once again, all the snow geese will go crazy in the east, and we'll all live happily ever after!

[LI Phil]

High Wind Advisory As of 10:58 am EST on December 23, 2004

... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM EST this evening...

South winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph this afternoon across the
coastal areas and the New York/New Jersey metropolitan area. Some
wind gusts this afternoon may reach speeds in excess of 45 mph. This
will be especially true with any heavier rain showers moving through
the region... as they will have the potential to bring gusts over 50
mph.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31
to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these
magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions.
Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds
subside.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/ne_ws_anim.gif

[Jason234]

clear out your inbox LI phil

[LI Phil]

Inbox cleaned out...just went outside to smoke a butt and I can confirm, with absolute certainty, that it is windy as HELL! And, the rain has just started to fall...sideways.

http://www.meteoconsult.fr/image/logo/lwgnpj/lwgnpjx4960.gif

[James]

Hang in there, guys.

[LI Phil]

A squall line is rapidly approaching LI...we should expect severe weather and VERY gusty winds...areas that have had this squall line go thru already have seen gusts to hurricane force!!!

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. WE'LL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS LOW. IN THIS WARM SECTOR...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ABOVE THE GROUND. IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...SOME OF THIS WIND COULD COME DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WIND POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THESE HIGH WINDS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS INLAND ZONES. TIME FRAME FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM.

[LI Phil]

James, clean out your inbox!

[James]

There we go. It's been cleaned out.

[LI Phil]

Come Chat!

[LI Phil]

With thousands of people travelling, including Santa himself, the question is: will the weather cooperate?

The good news is that we won't have to worry about any wintery precipitation over the holiday weekend. Tonight the clouds will clear up just a little bit and we won't find any rain or snow for this evening, but for Christmas day look for plunging temperatures.

Cold air takes a grip over the Tri-State area and it will hold through Christmas day, with very brisk winds. We'll see 37 Degrees for the high today and for tomorrow, Christmas day, only getting up to 29 degrees, though it will be sunny But there is some good news coming up because we've got mild temperatures on the way as we head into the work week.

[LI Phil]

...some wintry precipitation is possible sunday and monday...

low pressure over the gulf of mexico...currently bringing a white
christmas to brownsville texas of all places...will move northeast to
a position off the north carolina coast sunday morning. an easterly
flow developing between the low and strong high pressure over quebec
will bring atlantic moisture into the area late tonight and sunday.
temperatures sunday morning will be cold enough for the precipitation
to begin as light snow or freezing drizzle...which could cause icy
conditions on area roadways. as the flow off the ocean
increases...precipitation should change to a mix of plain rain
and snow in new york city and coastal sections by midday sunday.

precipitation will change to all snow sunday night as the
intensifying offshore low draws down colder air from the north...and
some light accumulations are possible sunday night into
monday morning.

anyone planning to travel sunday into monday should keep abreast of
the latest national weather service forecasts.

[LI Phil]

...snow heading toward the tri-state region...

.a low pressure center developing off the southeast portion of our
nation will move rather quickly northeastward to a point well east
of nantucket by monday morning. light snow will develop from south
to north across the region this afternoon...and become steady this
evening and overnight.

1003 am est sun dec 26 2004

the low pressure center will be too far off the coast to produce a
significant snowfall for new jersey...the metropolitan area and
points north...but 1 to 3 inches of accumulation appear possible by
the time it ends monday morning.

:snow

[LI Phil]

Jason234 (Keith) picked up on the ETA three days ago...and the kid NAILED this one:

...significant snow heading toward the tri-state region...

.a low pressure center developing off the southeastern portion of
our nation will track northeastward to a position about 300 miles
southeast of long island later tonight. the low will continue to
strengthen as it moves just south of the canadian maritimes on
monday.

...a winter weather advisory in effect until 8 am est monday...

snow will continue to overspread the area this evening and overnight.
the snow will taper off from west to east by very early monday
morning.

total snow accumulations on the order of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

in addition...winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph later tonight and
monday...producing some blowing and drifting of the snow.
visibilities may be reduced as a result.

the mentioned advisory is issued when snow and or ice is forecast to
develop in the affected areas...but accumulations are expected to be
light. any snow or ice would make driving and walking difficult but
not impossible on untreated roadways and sidewalks. when temperatures
are below freezing...motorists need to be especially careful on
bridges and overpasses where slippery spots can easily develop.

[LI Phil]

This afternoon. Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight. Mostly clear. Lows around 16. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday. Partly cloudy in the morning. Then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy in the evening. Then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

Thursday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.

Thursday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

Friday. Partly cloudy in the morning. Then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs around 50.

Friday night. Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40.

New years day. Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs in the lower 50s.

Saturday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

Sunday. Partly cloudy. Cooler with highs in the lower 40s.

[Jason234]

It's a false Idol warmup...nevertheless I do miss the warmer temps. a tad, but nothing more then that.

[LI Phil]

We will be experiencing above normal temps during this period...today and tonight will be the coldest in the next week. You can take that to the bank. This is for the entire east coast and deep south. After that, we'll see how the SOI flip plays into things.

[LI Phil]

Tuesday will be cold, but it's looking better than Monday, and even better the following day and into New Year's weekend.

The overnight low temperature will drop to an extremely cold 15 degrees. As the snow moved out it left 6 to 9 inches of snow on the eastern end of Long Island, and then it was gone just as quick as it came. Gusty winds pulled behind it and dragged down the temperature.

Overnight tonight the real numbers will be close to the zero mark. On Long Island, when we wake up Tuesday expect very cold temperatures of around 15 degrees on the Island.

Tomorrow expect a high of 32 degrees, with some sun and clouds, as that one straight shot of cold air lands right on top of us.

For the rest of the week, look forward to milder temperatures - Wednesday look for highs in the 40s. That cold air is looking a little bit better by Thursday with a high of 45 degrees. For News Year's Eve and New Year's Day expect mild temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s.

Dick Clark, if he makes it till New Year's, may see a record warmth for his Rotten, I mean Rockin' New Year's show.

[Jason234]

Whatabout the shortwave that's progged to come through New Years Eve, could see some percip. but then again it will be limping it's way over here like when senator Kerry got shot in Vietnam! Which may not be a good thing for the ball drop, anywho temps will plummit thereafter.

[LI Phil]

I'm still up in the air on that one...if we see some percip, I mean precip, it will be in the form of rain...won't get cold until after my b-day...(1/3). Could see some snow on the 4th...

[Jason234]

hey, you got Danielw over here, give a shout out!

[LI Phil]

After a cold day today high pressure will slide out and the warm up will begin. Tomorrow (Wednesday) temps will rebound to above normal in the 40s. Some 50s are possible by Friday (New year's Eve). Through the week we will be mostly dry but clouds will move in and out along weak fronts. However Friday there might be a little more moisture along the front so a few showers are possible later Friday or even into early Saturday. So the natural question is "will it rain for the Eve when the ball drops?". That remains possible but any rain we see later Friday into Saturday am should be brief and not amount too much. To time rain this many days out is impossible so stay tuned for a more exact forecast.

Overall the pattern will be changing big time. A trough is developing in the west and a ridge will be developing in the SE US. This will with out a doubt warm us up. The pattern is a sneaky one. One case in point is the snow we had yesterday. That wasn't really expected to occur until hints started to appear on the models Friday. Before that it looked as though the trough would lift and the warm up would begin Sunday.

So the point is although it looks warm into Early January we must be on the look out for some "surprises". The cold front on the GFS for Friday night and Saturday looks benign. But this is the GFS we are talking about and this year it has been as accurate in the medium range as me sticking my thumb up in the air. However even the GFS shows hints of what I am about to talk about. The ECMWF shows this better. "This" is cold high pressures trying to settle south despite abnormally high 500 mb heights. If one looks at the upper level pattern alone you would conclude that July is arriving 6 months too early. And if you look at the thicknesses you'd think 60s are possible. And if you look at the GFS numbers at LGA for Saturday you'd see 60s! While one day near 60 is possible there is going to be "sneaky" cold air trying to slide down from confluence over Canada just north of Maine. So I would suspect that low level cold air will try to settle south a couple of times. One of those times is this upcoming weekend. Also watch for high pressure to try to settle in and wedge southward for an extra day. And early next week we could see a warm advection/ overrunning situation set-up. If the cold air is "cold" and "stubborn" enough we could get into an ice event before changing to rain. The main trough will in fact remain in the west through Jan 5-7th but that does not mean we can't get shallow cold air. After the 5th-7th the pattern will begin to transition again. Energy looks to get cut-off in the SW and thus allows the Ridge over the North Pacific to "bridge" across to western Canada. This will act to shove cold air eastward through Canada rather then digging into the SW US. That cold air over Central Canada will then be ready to surge south if and when the trough is able to rebuild over the east. This could take a week or so once it commences. In the meantime, the door could be open for SW energy to slide eastward while cold air grazes the northern tier. So watch for interesting weather here after the 5th-7th.

[Jason234]

Oddly enough if a ridge at the surface where to set up the way the GFS see's, we would be back in teen's again. There is cold air just waiting to be pulled down, near the confluence zone just above ME as LI phil said. Because of this percip. in the form of flurries might break when we have the short-wave plowing through instead of just rain. It's too early to pinpoint what will happen, but just as the last time I wouldn't be surprised...

[LI Phil]

Sure wasn't expecting anything, and it may yet not happen, but the northeast radar is definitely showing some snow heading LI's way. Whether or not it is reaching the ground is another matter entirely...

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImages/RadarLoop/bgm+bgwv.gif

[Jason234]

I myself am saying the same thing...it doesn't seem to be stopping and yes snow is falling, check some surface obs. Either way it wasn't forecasted, I didn't even think that we would have flurries!

[Jason234]

seems to dry to reach the ground...oh well.

[Jason234]

looks like I was wrong, nothing like waiting to the last minute to change a forecast. "Area's of light snow, no accumulation is excepted"

[LI Phil]

Welp, raise my rent...just went outside for a smoke and sho' nuff, a few dry (in the relative sense) flakes are starting to fall. Definitely won't accumulate, maybe a dusting on cold cars or something, but nothing on the ground.

http://www.meteoconsult.fr/image/logo/lwgnpj/lwgnpjp0083.gif

[Jason234]

got a dusting here, looks good over the snow pack- filled in some holes and such, but parts of eastern long island and the cape are still under the gun, some areas' picked up a half of inch with this surprise storm! And look there's another shortwave behind it, coming in fast...

[LI Phil]

It will still be cold Wednesday, but milder than it's been the last few days. As a warm front begins to move across the region, the temperature won't go as cold or as low as it has been.

Look for a high temperature of 45 degrees today with a mixtures of sunshine and clouds - better than yesterday, but not as good as it's going to get.

All this mild weather we're going to be seeing is due to a Western warm front moving in and pushing out the cold air we felt over the weekend. It will slide in over the next couple of days, making for a mild New Year's weekend.

For tonight it's looking nice with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. Look for a high of 37 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies - but not as cold. For the rest of the week, well, Thursday will be in the upper 40s and partly cloudy. New Year's eve will be much warmer than normal, mid-50s to close to 60 (!) albeit with a chance for some rain. New Year's Day will be warm and mild as well, with temps in the mid to upper 50s under partly cloudy skies. Finally, Sunday will return to more normal temperatures with highs only topping out in the lower 40s, with a chance for rain.

[LI Phil]

The big news is the mild weather to usher out 2004. We will have tempertures in the 40's today, and then for New Year's Eve Day, temperatures will be in the mid-50's.

It'll be cloudy Friday, and we could see a few light showers but they won't be strong enough to interfere with any outdoor plans you may have.

Lows when the ball drops will only be around 50 degrees! New Year's Day we're even warmer, with temperatures around 60 degrees. The all time recorded high for that day in our area is 62 degrees, so we could break a record.

[Jason234]

I'm not saying your forecast is wrong, just tune down your numbers a bit. You have to account for a 1045 mb high ushering in 10-20 mph winds from the Northwest! Also the cold front that will be coming through, for all intents and purposes the numbers when the ball drop will be considerbly lower then 50 degree's.

[LI Phil]

I'm not saying your forecast is wrong, just tune down your numbers a bit. You have to account for a 1045 mb high ushering in 10-20 mph winds from the Northwest! Also the cold front that will be coming through, for all intents and purposes the numbers when the ball drop will be considerbly lower then 50 degree's.
Keith, your cold is coming...just not before Monday-Tuesday. The big canadian high with 10-20 mph winds will NOT affect the temperature...it will affect the wind chill. So, it may be 50 degrees, but feel like 35... We'll see, you root for snow and cold, I root for record warmth, so of course we'll try to find models that will support our natural biases. Plus, that 50 will be an absolute max and I was calling for it for NYC Times Square, not Long Island, even though I'm only 30 miles from NYC. We'll see...I've eaten crow before, so if I'm wrong I'll admit it and move on...:wink:

[Jason234]

No worries.

[LI Phil]

It will actually be warmer as the big countdown starts in Times Square than it was this morning! We should be at 50 degrees around midnight.

For New Year's day, look for partly sunny skies and the potential for record-breaking warmth. We could see temperatures in the low 60's. The highest recorded temp for New Year's day here is 62 degrees.

Things will cool down a little as we get into Sunday, but we're still talking about mild weather and partly sunny skies with highs in the 40's. The jet stream is going to keep bitter cold and stormy weather well to our north and well to our west right through the first week of January.


http://gifs.bestgraph.com/fetes/nouvel_an/nouvel_an-10.gif

[LI Phil]

Look for a temperature of 60 or slightly above today, which would be a near-record high. It was a little warmer on this day in 1966.

Tonight, just for Keith234, there's a cool front moving in, which will bring us a drop in temperatures to a low of 34 degrees. It will also bring some sprinkles our way.

Tomorrow, look for cooler temperatures, high of about 44 degrees. It'll be cloudy all day, with rain later in the day on Sunday. Go J-E-T-S...JETS JETS JETS.Monday is a little warmer at 54 degrees, and Tuesday cools to 41 - all above or right around the normal marks for this time of year.

[Jason234]

I have to say LI phil you take the cake on this over and under. I understimated the warm period, but hey, I predicted a warm period so looks like I landed somwhere on the middle. GREAT JOB LI PHIL!

[LI Phil]

I told you it'd be warm until my birthday...though tomorrow will be colder...your snow and ice are coming!!! Just have a little patience!!! Cheers...3some ...btw what the phuck is that icon?

[LI Phil]

After an unusally warm first day of 2005, the weather's changing again, with some rain and fog moving into our area today and tomorrow.



A warm front is moving into our area. When it combines with the cold air already in place, we're going to get some rain. So the forecast is for rain later on today, with an increase in clouds during the day and scattered showers tonight. The high temperature during the day will be 44. Tonight, look for rain and fog, with a low of 42.

Tomorow we'll have some milder temperatures, with a high of 54, and also some rain. The same theme continues for the rest of the week. In general, it'll be cloudy, soggy, and dreary. Late in the week, look for temperatures to start dropping once again.

[Jason234]

NWS finnaly starting to pick up on the pattern at hand. Look Wed Thurs. time period

[Jason234]

And I believe that is a threesome

[LI Phil]

It'll be drizzley, foggy, but not too cold for the next couple of days, before winter cold moves back into the area. Cloudy skies will be the rule tonight with hit or miss showers, so take the umbrella with you if you go out. But the bulk of the winter precipitation is to our north, so we don't have to worry about sustained rain or snow. Lows tonight will be 42, with drizzle and some fog. Mild temperatures will return for Monday, but it won't last for long. High temperature will be 54; keep an eye out for off/on sprinkles during the course of the day. For Tuesday, we'll see more clouds and drizzle, with a high of 48. After that, things will take a turn for the worse, with a chance of ice and some flurries starting Wednesday (just for Keith...).

[LI Phil]

... There is a chance for a winter storm Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday...

The latest forecast models show a Canadian high pressure system
building southeast across the region just in time for the next wave
of low pressure that develops across the south central U.S. And moves
northeast toward the Ohio Valley during Wednesday.

As always... the position and intensity of both the Canadian high and
the Ohio Valley low will be critical in determining precipitation
type and amounts across the region.

At this time... there is a potential for a prolonged winter weather
event... which could bring an accumulating snowfall to the tri state
area... mainly from Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.

[LI Phil]

... There is a chance for winter weather late Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday...

A Canadian high pressure system will build north of the region later
Tuesday and Wednesday. This high will allow colder air to work across
the local region. In the meantime... another area of low pressure is
expected to move out of the mid west and track toward our local
region. As such... any rain is expected to gradually change over to
snow later Wednesday and continue Thursday. There still is some
uncertainty on both when the precipitation will change over to all
snow... and how much precipitation we see. However the potential
exists for an accumulating snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
across the area.

[Jason234]

Tis extermely tricky to predict changeover times...usually have to wait within 9 hours of snowfall to get a good idea.

[LI Phil]

We have a very active jet stream across the nation with disturbance after disturbance making for very cloudy and damp conditions across the country. Our area is no exception. Clouds will stick around through Friday morning. Overall we have had a very mild pattern as of late. This ridge in the east and trough out west will continue at least for the next 10 days. BUT as luck would have it there is one glitch. That glitch is a short-lived cold spell later tonight into early Thursday morning. And just as the cold air moves in so will the moisture. So a messy mixture of sleet, snow, freezing rain and rain will occur Wednesday into early Thursday. Warmer air will move back in early Thursday for a quick change back to all rain. The weather will improve Friday into Saturday.

Now for more specifics on the upcoming icy situation. Tonight cold air will be filtering south as high pressure builds gradually into the NE from Canada. Our winds at the lower levels up to about 850 mb will be out of a northerly direction. That will cool the lower layers of the atmosphere up to about cloud level to below freezing during the day on Wednesday. The surface temperature will not cool below freezing in the City and LI and points south until the evening. This means that as early as the morning commute, as the rain breaks out, points around Newburgh in a line east to west will be cold enough for sleet, snow and perhaps some freezing rain. In the City (Long Island, Central NJ, etc...) tomorrow morning anything that falls will be rain. By afternoon that rain/ice/snow line will be dropping south. There might or might not be a lull in precip for a time tomorrow. Regardless anything that falls later in the afternoon should be sleet or snow across most of the area. With that said we must examine a little more closely. The snow growth layers in the clouds are very important in this situation. There clearly will be a deep layer of cold air below the clouds. But in the clouds temps will be very close to freezing the further south one goes. You ideally need to see 700-800 mb temps several degrees below freezing to get good snow growth. At this point temps will be at best 2-3 below freezing up there. Some areas esp. south of the city might be near freezing at 700-800mb the majority of the event. So what does this mean? It will be hard for snow to form at cloud level. More likely this event will be sleet for hours with snow mixing in in waves. After midnight on Thursday morning the warm air will push back north. This will turn City and coastal areas to all rain before or during the morning commute. Areas north of the City will have to wait until mid-morning to see that change. But this will be a quick change once it starts occuring. One thing that must be remembered. High pressure and its cold air are only making a quick visit. It will not have any staying power. It will not be able to wedge that much cold air in. This is NOT a good CAD situation. There is no blocking to our north! So once the warm air advection starts to occur it will push the boundary northward fast.

So what can we expect for accumulations? Well, for Long Island, this should be a mostly sleet event. Away from the Urban areas freezing rain will become a concern as well especially Wednesday night. And yes through about midnight some snow will mix in from time to time. With all this considered 1-2" seems possible for areas in a line from west to east near the City. North of the City more accumulations are likely especially to the NW. From Sussex county NJ into the Hudson Valley from Northern Westchester/ Rockland County north we could see 2-5" of snow and ice.

Nice weather returns Friday. The long term pattern shows few if any signs of a prolonged shift back to a trough in the east any time soon.

[LI Phil]

... A wintry mix of precipitation expected this afternoon through
Thursday morning...

A warm front will remain draped in a west to east fashion across the
Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic states through Thursday. A wave of
low pressure will ride along the front to our south this afternoon.
At the same time... cold Canadian high pressure continue to build
in from the north. A second wave of low pressure will develop to our
south tonight into Thursday... likely bringing a second batch
of precipitation to the region.

As this colder air gets filtered in from the north... the mixture of
rain... snow and sleet will change over to predominately snow and
sleet as the afternoon progresses. A coating to an inch of snow and
sleet could accumulate by the time rush hour is over this evening.

Tonight will likely see a mixture of snow and sleet fall across the
region with accumulations of around 2 inches anticipated toward
morning. Some freezing rain will mix in later on tonight... which
could result in a light coating of ice on all surfaces toward
morning. This will cause very slippery travel for Thursday morning's
rush hour. Warmer air works in as the morning progresses... which
will allow for a transition to plain rain toward afternoon.

[LI Phil]

Today. Freezing rain mixed with sleet until late morning. Then rain. Tapering off and ending late. Up to a third of an inch of glaze possible. Highs around 40. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight. Mostly cloudy in the evening. Then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Increasing to west 15 to 20 mph after midnight.

Friday. Partly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday night. Partly cloudy in the evening. Then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of freezing rain or sleet after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Saturday. Cloudy. A chance of rain. Freezing rain or snow in the morning. Then rain likely in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations possible. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds around 5 mph. Becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Saturday night. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow in the evening. Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s.

Sunday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

Monday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.

Monday night. Partly cloudy in the evening. Then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.

Tuesday. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs around 50.

Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Lows around 40.

Wednesday. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs around 50.

[Jason234]

two weeks from today, a different picture will be painted. It will get warm, but it will also get cold, could very well BEAT THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF 1983, AND WITH THIS NEGATIVE NAO IT COULD SPELL T-R-O-U-B-L-E.

[LI Phil]

...more wintry weather headed for the tri-state region...

low pressure will develop over the mississippi valley today and track
northeast. clouds and precipitation out ahead of this low will
quickly stream into the area tonight.

there should be enough cold air in the area for nearly all locations
to see at least a brief period of mixed precipitation. coastal areas
may see some sleet mixing with rain for a time...before changing to
all rain. if the clouds and precipitation are a little slower in
arriving...temperatures could drop off to near the freezing mark.
this could result in more freezing rain and sleet near the coast late
tonight.

further inland...temperatures are expected to drop below
freezing...allowing for freezing rain and sleet there. by saturday
morning...it will have warmed up enough to change that precipitation
over to all rain. enough freezing rain is expected to fall to form a
light glaze once again late tonight and saturday.

late night friday and early saturday morning travel could become
quite difficult.

[LI Phil]

Zonal Flow Continues Into Tuesday. Surface High Over The Area Moves Offshore Today Through This Evening. Low Pressure Moving Through Southeastern Canada Will Bring Cold Front Through The Area Monday. Dynamics Rather Weak With The Passage And Atmosphere Rather Dry. Decided To Remove The Chance For Precipitation...although A Stray Sprinkle Will Be Possible. Surface Ridge Builds Back Into The Area Late Monday Into Tuesday. With An Easterly Flow Developing Later In The Day...ahead Of The Approaching Warm Front...and Plenty Of Cloud Cover Have Lowered High Temperatures Several Degrees. With The Approach Of The Front Will Just Have Slight Chance Probabilities For Late In The Day And Mostly Over The Western Zones.

Tuesday Night Long Wave Trough Digs Into The Central Us With Southern Stream Surface Low Developing Over The Southwest And Northern Stream Over Coastal Northwest. Systems Phase Over The Central Us Wednesday. Weather Will Become Interesting Tuesday Night. Warm Front Expected To Remain South Of The Area Through The Night With High Pressure Over Northern New England. Colder Air Will Filter South With Precipitation Changing ver To Snow Across The Northern Zones And Possibly A Mix Of Rain And Snow long The Coast After 06z As The Cold Air Continues To Sink South. Wave eveloping On The Warm Front Will Pull Front Through Wednesday Morning. As he Warmer Air Flows In Aloft A Wintry Mix Inland Is Possible With A Brief Period Of Freezing Rain...sleet...and Snow. Rain Ends During The Evening With The Front Well North Of The Area. Will Be A Rather Warm Day Thursday Ahead Of The Cold Front...although Do Not Expect To Set Any Records. Cold Front Pushes Through Thursday Night And Makes Slow Progress Friday With Lingering Precipitation. Much Colder Air Follows Behind The Front For The Weekend.

[LI Phil]

We'll have a little cold front that will slip through tonight, but you'll hardly even notice it as it's overpowered by warmer weather that will mark our week.

We'll have cloudy skies and highs in the 50's for our Monday.

Then that cooler air comes in and we'll be in the low 40's for Tuesday with mostly sunny skies.

After that things really warm up. Wednesday, we're expecting mostly cloudy skies and some showers, with highs in the lower 50's.

Thursday it's even grayer with more rain, highs around 60 degrees and lows near 40.

Friday we cool back down, with more rain and highs in the 40's. Very cold air moves back in for the weekend. On Saturday we could see some snow, and temperatures won't get out of the 20's.

[LI Phil]

Wintry weather will return to the tri-state area beginning Tuesday
afternoon as a wave of low pressure approaches the region from the
west. Light snow will begin across interior sections of northeast New
Jersey... the lower Hudson Valley and central Connecticut Tuesday
afternoon. This will result in snow accumulations of about two inches
before changing over to a mixed bag of sleet and freezing rain... and
then eventually all freezing rain Tuesday night.

The New York City metropolitan area... coastal Connecticut and Long
Island will see precipitation begin as a mixed bag of rain and sleet
rain late Tuesday afternoon before changing over to rain Tuesday
night. Eastern New Jersey may see more in the way of snow and sleet
early on before the changeover.

Motorists and pedestrians should be advised for changing Road
conditions during this time... as precipitation type will be
temperature dependent. Some areas may see precipitation freezing to
the ground quicker than others. Roads... especially untreated
ones... will become icy and dangerous.

[LI Phil]

Get ready for some wild weather swings. We will see snow, 60s and teens over the next several days.

First let's talk about today and tonight. We've seen this twice since this pattern began in late December. This will be the third time.

A cold front has passed and will become stationary just south. It will come back at us tonight. As it does so over running precip will develop today from west to east along with a weak upper level disturbance. On Long Island we should see a mix of wet snow, sleet and rain will develop this afternoon. Temperatures will hover in the mid 30s along the coast/city and near 30 Inland. This evening warm air will surge north first in the upper layers. So the wet snow will change to sleet and rain along the coast mid evening. Then by the morning rush most places will be plain rain.

How about snow and ice accumulations? Well in the urban areas near NYC ground temps will be mostly above freezing so a slushy coating to 1" is about it.

Tomorrow after some morning rain skies could brighten during the afternoon but there will be limited sun. Winds will begin to switch towards the south but even tomorrow temps will not be all that warm in the 40s. Thursday will be the one warm day with highs in the 50s to near 60. Rain showers will develop later in the day and overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. That will be a strong cold front and the pattern changer. Friday temps will fall and this weekend temps will be in the 20s for highs and teens/ single numbers for lows. There is, as Keith noted in the Winter Weather forum, a chance for some snow from Friday through the weekend. A little too far out at this point to make any kind of call, but the cold air will be in place.

[Jason234]

Thanks for the refrence.

[LI Phil]

We'll have high temperatures that are about ten degrees above normal on Wednesday, with highs near 50 and lows hold pretty steady, only falling a couple of degrees overnight.

Then when Thursday gets here, we are in for some very unusual January weather. It'll be rainy, and highs will top out around 62 degrees!. I was watching Fox News this morning, and their chief met was opining it could crack 70 (I think he was on crack). But it will crack 60.


The warm weather doesn't stick around too long, though. We'll see windy weather on Friday and temperatures falling back into the forties. That's still above normal for this time of year. We'll have partly cloudy skies.

On Saturday we see the next big shift in our weather, with sunny skies and cold air moving in. Temperatures will only be in the lower 30's. That's just a bit below normal for our January, but after that 60 degree weather it will feel really cold! For Sunday, look for a mix of sun and clouds and highs again in the low 30's.

[LI Phil]

Look for highs close to the 60s today with some gusty winds and some dense fog hanging around.



There was a dense fog advisory out for the entire area Wednesday night.

Today, my local mets are calling for temps in the low to mid 60s - it's hard to believe - as the moisture that was with us earlier in the week clears out. They're calling for 66 degrees in Newark and 64 in Central Park. I find it hard to believe we'll actually crack 60 on LI, but it is possible...however, it's overcast and foggy, and it will be windy later.

Windy and warm today - very windy because we're so close to the next front that's behind us, so these winds will really be gusting and howling today. Then another cold front slams into all that warm air tomorrow night, clearing out the way for several days of colder temperatures. When that happens we're looking at a round of heavy showers and even thundershowers late tonight.
Friday is looking windy and much colder with a high of 49 degrees. Saturday is
looking chilly at 36 degrees. Sunday and Monday are looking even colder still with highs of only 34 and 32 degrees.

While it is way too premature to speculate, winter COULD make a full blown return by next Wednesday...some of the models are hinting at such. I'll have a better handle on it by the end of the weekend.

[LI Phil]

Debating whether to entitle this "Let It Rain" or "Who'll Stop The Rain"...

Right now, at 10:45, it's POURING. The front moving through mid-day on Friday will drop our temperatures from the fifties down into the 30's and then we are into the colder air for awhile. I'm expecting some slushy snow, possibly with some accumulation, to be at the tail end of the precip.


The good news: Though it's getting cold, there is no additional precip. in the 5-day forecast once the rain/sleet/slushy shit stops today. And though it'll really feel noticably colder after our mild weather, temps really will be about normal for this time of year.

On Saturday, I expect sunny skies and highs of about 36 degrees.

Sunday we're just above freezing all day, with mostly sunny skies.

Monday more sun and clouds, a high of about 30.
And for Tuesday, more sun and temperatures around 30 degrees.

Wednesday is another story, but until we're about 72 hours out, I'll hold off on any progging...

[LI Phil]

The cold front that's moved across the area has dropped our temperatures a substantial amount in the last 24-hours; don't look now, but there's a second cold front on its way.



For today, look for a high of 38. It'll be seasonably cold, and sunny. But the wind will make it feel a little colder, so be sure to layer up.

Tonight, the low temperature will be 26; it'll be partly cloudy, but there shouldn't be any precipitation.

Sunday will bring us a mix of clouds and sun, with a high of 34. In general it'll be nippy, with a chance for a few flakes in the late afternoon and evening hours...THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION, which is my criterion for "snow". Some areas of Suffolk MAY see a small accumulation, but NOTHING for Nassau County, as any precip will be "backdoor" as in moving westward from east to west.

Then, look for temperatures to take a sudden plunge. We're looking at a frigid Monday, with a high of just 22. Tuesday won't get much better, with a high of 26, and Wednesday will just get up to 32. Wednesday will offer us our first decent chance for snow, but until we're 72 hours out, I won't get into any specifics...

[Jason234]

this is a winter of big swings and there is nothing normal about it. if you throw a ball to the ground really hard, it's going to bounce up really hard. THERE IS NO MIDGROUND and if you want to bias warm and dry, when the clear bias for this time period is cold and snowy be my guest.

[LI Phil]

OK, Jason, we MAY get your snow...I didn't look at any forecasts yesterday, and only TWC today...too upset at the JETS loss...

But I see we're being targeted for 1-3". IF we get any measurable snow, I'll gladly consume my crow, but I'm gonna stick with my guns...if I go down, I'll go down fighting...

Here's the official:

This Afternoon...Cloudy. Light snow or flurries likely late in the day. Snow accumulation less than an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tonight...Snow. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Martin Luther King Jr Day...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the morning...Then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 30. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Monday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds around 15 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Mostly clear in the evening...Then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy in the morning...Then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening... Then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning...Then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. Colder with lows 10 to 15.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s.

Friday Night...Mostly clear in the evening...Then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 15.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s.

[LI Phil]

But, when I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I admit it.

I have about 1" of the fluffy stuff outside my winder...Jason234 was right, and I'm admitting it...he can now come and clean off my car!

Keith, GREAT CALL. I hate crow, but I've eaten so much the past two years, it's kinda like vitamins...you don't wanna take 'em, but they're good for ya!

Cheers!

[Jason234]

no problem man, last nigt i must of seen an old model run or something made me post against the snow, i realized it was old and deleted the post. Anyway, we had 2.5 inches here and still falling. This should stick around for our next snow event on wednesday.

[LI Phil]

... Arctic airmass to settle down across the region...

A low pressure center will intensify as it pulls away from the area
this afternoon. In its wake... a cold Canadian high pressure system
will slide down from the northwest. Temperatures will drop off
sharply overnight as a blustery northerly wind Ushers in some very
cold air. This combination will create wind chill values around 0 to
10 below near the coast late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Across the interior... wind chill values between 10 to 15 below should
be common.

Anybody expecting to be out and about is urged to dress warmly to
reduce the threat from frostbite.

[LI Phil]

High pressure is building in from Canada. Winds are still up there around 15-20 mph and will stay that way most of today. At the same time temps will drop between 10 and 15 city/coast and to near zero far N&W. Wind chills near the coast will be close to zero give or take. Inland wind chills could plunge as low as 20 below zero. Today we are lucky if we break 20 city/coast and 15 Inland.

The next clipper system/s move in Wednesday and Thursday. They are two weak systems. Wednesday snow flurries and snow showers will develop especially during the afternoon. We could pick up an inch in most areas with up to 3" in the Poconos and Catskills. There is another chance of snow flurries and snow showers on Thursday. This will be another light event.

The real "fun" begins this weekend. A vigorous disturbance will slam into the ridge centered along the west coast. It will ride the top of the ridge but be strong enough to "dent" the ridge at its peak. Once it reaches the eastern Rockies it will dive southeast and dig deep. Meanwhile the Wed/ Thu Alberta Clippers will be carving out a trough in eastern Canada. The warm air pumping on the north side of that trough will drive a ridge into Greenland. This is a blocking pattern and it’s something we have not seen yet in the 2004/2005 winter. It is this blocking that will not allow the short wave out west to take the high road. Thus the shortwave is forced to dig southward. All of this we know.

Now for the fun of forecasting the weather. The questions we must answer are: how far south does the short wave dig, how well does it sharpen, and how much confluence (converging air aloft) is left over in eastern Canada and New England.

So let me start by simplifying this. We are going to toss out two models right off the bat... the UKMET and NOGAPS. The UKMET takes the shortwave and magically slides it through the ridge. It just doesn't make sense. The NOGAPS is generally not a great model although every once in a while it can surprise you aloft. But it is the southern outlier and in my eyes not believable. So the NOGAPS is gone.

That leaves us with the GGEM, GFS and ECMWF. The only of these three models that has been reliable this season is the ECMWF. So that will be given some weight. The 12z GFS forms a large cut off low in eastern Canada and that acts as major blocking and suppression. So the GFS has been consistently pushing the storm out to sea giving the NYC area nothing more than a glancing blow. The GFS has been fairly bad this year so I'm already skeptical of this solution. And something we have seen time and time again is that the GFS tends to be too weak and not amplified enough past about 3 days out. The only time the "wave model" GFS over blows a storm days ahead is if it "thinks" resonant frequency will occur (i.e. phasing). If the GFS can't "envision this phasing it is always too weak (One thing I look for when predicting a snow storm in our area is for the GFS to be east and south 5 days out). So I strongly suspect the 12z GFS is under playing the sharpness of this trough. In support of that idea I have noticed the following. The GFS does not really build the heights along the east coast. True the GFS shows confluence to our north so naturally it would be limited as to how far north the heights would build but why would the heights not build south of that confluence? Simply the GFS is wrong. The heights must build... that is unless there is an upstream kicker. I was able to find one and it’s not too shabby but just too far west/ late and not strong enough to stop our short wave from digging, building heights and going neutral/negative. The GGEM has the least blocking out of all the models and thus doesn't allow the short wave to dig as far south. Therefore the storms tracks east across the Ohio Valley and reforms along the Eastern Seaboard. The GGEM shows significant over running ahead of it; it closes off and forms a fairly vigorous and slow moving storm along the east coast. One thing that seems odd though is in the face of a strong cold high in Canada that the GGEM is able to build so much ridging "at the onset" as to stop the short wave from digging. This solution is possible but it just doesn't look probable. Storms very rarely do what the GGEM suggesting which is move due west to east across the Ohio valley and out into the Atlantic. Even if this exact scenario were to verify we would see substantial snow in the NYC area. There will be significant warm air trying to get in but there will also be a ton of cold air in place and not very willing to let go. I doubt that in a pattern like this we would see much if any a change over to rain. So again I must lean against the warmer/ more northern track of the GGEM but I will give it some weight. So that leaves us with the ECMWF. This model far and away has been the best this year. Sure it has not been perfect but no model ever is. The ECMWF shows the confluence over Northern New England and eastern Canada... to a greater extent than the GGEM and to a lesser extent than the GFS. It is a very good compromise in the upper levels. Even with the confluence it shows to our north it still builds heights along the east coast up to the confluence zone. This makes sense unlike the GFS. The 12z ECMWF solution is the superior one because it makes meteorological sense not because it gives us a big snow storm. But with that said the ECMWF would be a major from the Carolinas to Cape Cod. I also like the idea of cutting the system off at some point. Both the GGEM and ECMWF show this. It makes sense given how sharp I expect the trough to be and because of the confluent blocking to out north. Bottom line... this is going to be a strong short wave so it makes sense to lean towards the stronger solution. I might even lean slightly west of even the ECMWF solution given how vigorous this short wave is. I don't know how the details will play out but this is certainly the best chance at a major snow storm we've seen in a very long while.

So what could go wrong with this forecast? You will notice on the 12z ECMWF 168 hours there is some bagginess to the heights in the western side of the trough. That is the upstream short wave I mentioned before. While most folks will be concerned about the confluence to our north I will be more concerned with this 2nd short wave. If there is a spoiler it will probably be that over the blocking.

I just took a peak at the 18z GFS which I didn't have until now. It is already shifting west with the storm and shaper with the trough. It even builds the heights along the Eastern Seaboard like it should have in the first place. While I expected the GFS to come around I did not expect it to do so this early. To me this is just a testament to how vigorous this short wave will be.

[LI Phil]

An approaching area of low pressure near the eastern Great Lakes
will bring light snow to the region today and early tonight. The
snow will develop from west to east by midday and is expected to
end early tonight. The snow amounts are expected to be fairly
light... generally 1 to 3 inches. However... because temperatures have
been cold... the snow will likely stick on the roads. Any untreated
roads will likely become slippery.

It'll be warmer today and tomorrow, but then more frigid air moves in for Friday/Saturday...and then the fun begins...some models are showing a 36 hour all snow event for Sunday into Monday, with potential accumulation of 2 feet in some areas...I'm not willing to take that to the bank, but I wanted to point out that the POTENTIAL is there.

Winter's here, that's for sure.

[Jason234]

It's snowing hard here, this morning i was in bio and it started snowing like crazy. Dropped around an inch...with all these streamers my numbers look good.

[LI Phil]

This is just a quick update to account for the new computer models from this morning and afternoon. The snow storm is still on track for Saturday late into Sunday. Some runs from earlier today are showing fairly big pattern changes with regards to the storm. The 12z ECMWF has done a very uncharacteristic thing and something I can't remember it doing in just one runs' time. I mentioned that I liked the ECMWF the best out of all the information we had last night. I mentioned that I was uneasy with just one thing and that was how it handles the 2nd short wave on the back side of the trough. Last night's EC showed the trough slowing over the Ohio Valley and waiting for the 2nd short wave for "full" phasing. I figured that the eventual outcome would be that the 2nd short wave would end up being a "weak" kicker to kick the system along faster and close it off further east. This mornings ECMWF did this exactly except it didn't just lightly kick it, it blasted a 60 yard field goal. What I mean there is nothing weak about the kick that the system gets eastward. When the cut off finally does form it is hundreds of miles SE of where it formed before. Also the 18z ETA has done the same things as the EC as compared to the 12z ETA. So obviously they are catching onto something. The solution is now closer to that of the other models. The first to show this type of solution was the GGEM.

Since this was a major shift in just one model run it becomes very important to see the next one to two runs of each of these models. We must establish if this shift is a real trend. My best guess now is that the EC and ETA went a bit too far in kicking the sytstem east. I would think that the trough will eventually sharpen just west of the 12z EC position on Sunday. I still think the GFS is too progressive and does not "neutral" the trough quickly enough. My guess is the models will now slowly begin to shift back west slightly. On the models now you will distinctly notice 2 storms. The first swings quickly off the coast giving us snow later Saturday into early Sunday. We actually get from .5 to 1" melted precip just from that. Then the 2ndary coastal low forms along the NC coast in response to the 2nd short wave. This one almost spreads precip up to the NYC are but eventually pushes out to sea. The GGEM has shown this double low solution for 2 model runs now but does indeed spread some of the "2nd" round of precip as far north as us. I think the EC also allows some of the coastal precip. to get up here. A word about the 12z and 18z GFS... they seem too far south with the vortmax on the south side of the trough Sunday night. In fact the 18z GFS pushes it into eastern GA. That probably needs to be shifted further NW.

So to sum this up watch for the 2ndary coastal to be closer to the coast on Sunday. It could very well end up being a one-two punch (with a break) esp. for coastal sections.

One note that is good for illustration. Look at the 114 hour 500 mb pattern of the GFS. Now look at the newer 108 hour 500 mb map from the 18z model. These are for the same period. You will notice a major shift westward in just one run from the 12z GFS to the 18 z GFS with the coastal trough.

[LI Phil]

Short Term (tonight Through Friday Night)...arctic Front Passage
Will Usher In Much Colder Air On Brisk Nw Winds...with Wind Chills
Possibly Meeting Criteria In Far Nw Sections. Thought About Issuing
Wind Chill Advisory But Will Let The Day Crew Re-evaluate Since We
Overforecast Wind Chills A Couple Of Mornings Back. Below Guidance Temps Seem Reasonable Through The Period Given New Snowpack Which Mos Doesn't Yet Know About.

Long Term (saturday Through Wednesday)...still Don't Have The Model Agreement I'd Like To See Regarding This Weekend's Potential
Snowstorm. There Are Several Players At The Table...a Shortwave
Embedded In The Polar Jet Off The Northwest U.s. Coast...another
With The Arctic Jet North Of Lake Mackenzie In Northern Canada...an Upper Low Off Baja California...and The Shortwave Which Gave Us Yesterday's Snow. Models Handle The Details In Pretty Close Agreement Through About 60 Hours...phasing The First Two Shortwaves Over The Northern Plains On Saturday But Leaving The Baja Low Pretty Much Out Of The Picture (a Change From Recent Runs)...while Our Wave From Yesterday Intensifies And Closes Off As It Heads Up Into Eastern Canada. The 00z Models Begin To Diverge After 12z Saturday...mainly In How They Handle The Closed Low Over Eastern Canada. The Gfs Maintains A Stronger Low Which Allows For More Suppression Of The Developing Plains System...taking It To The Central Appalachians With Secondary Development Occurring Along The Nc/sc Coasts. The Eta Has A Weaker Eastern Canada Low...which Allows The Plains System To Take A More Northerly Track Across The Oh Valley With Secondary Development Much Farther North...off The Delmarva/nj Coasts.

Was Going To Discount The Eta Altogether Until I Saw The 00z
Ecmwf...which Was Very Close To The Eta Solution Through 00z Sunday And Then Gradually Trended Closer To The Gfs Thereafter. As A Compromise I'm Going Closer To The Gfs Solution Though Not Quite As Suppressed...which Still Puts Us Under The Gun For Potentially Significant Snowfall From Late Saturday Afternoon Into Sunday Morning. So Until We See Better Model Agreement (which May Not Happen Until The Eastern Canada Low Takes Shape And The Phasing Polar/arctic Shortwaves Are Sampled By U.s. Raobs...either 00z Or 12z Saturday!) Will Accept The Previous Forecast And Its Uncertainties Pretty Much As Is...except Bump Up Qpf In The Grids A Little.

Early Next Week Will Feature A Couple Of Weak Systems Early On.
Weak Front Drops Through Cwa Tue. Moisture Appears Quite Limited And Will Keep Dry For Now. Front Stalls And Then Returns North As Warm Front Ahead Of Next System Moving Along Us-canadian Border. Did Add A Low Chance Pop For Wed Ahead Of Front.

[LI Phil]

...another arctic blast will affect the region to end the week...

...a potentially significant winter storm for this weekend...

a cold front will push through the area this evening allowing a frigid arctic airmass to rush into the region from the northwest. the combination of northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and temperatures falling into the lower teens and single digits...will produce wind chill values between 5 to 15 degrees below zero late tonight and early friday morning. those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered to avoid frostbite.

the arctic airmass will hold a firm grip on the region through this weekend with temperatures remaining 10 to 15 degrees below normal. this cold air will also set the stage for a significant winter storm to effect the region. specifically... a potent upper level disturbance is expected to move out of the northern plains and into the ohio valley on saturday. the developing storm will move east and spread snow across the area as early as saturday afternoon. the
heaviest snowfall will occur saturday evening into the overnight as low pressure swings off the delmarva coast and rapidly intensifies. strong northeast winds will accompany the snowfall causing blowing and drifting of the snow. the snow will finally taper off sunday morning as low pressure races well east of cape cod. while there are still some discrepancies in the exact track and intensity of this expected system...snowfall totals by sunday afternoon are expected to be at least 6 inches. a shift in the track of low
pressure to the north or south could significantly change these amounts...so people are advised to stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for further details and updates.

[LI Phil]

... A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Winter Storm
Watch for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

Snow is expected to begin moving into the tri-state area late
Saturday morning. The snow could become heavy at times late Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. Snow is then expected to continue
into Sunday morning... gradually tapering off to flurries and ending
during Sunday afternoon. Snowfall amounts of six inches or more are
possible... with the potential for up to a foot of snow especially in
New York City... Long Island and across southeast Connecticut.
Northeast winds are also expected to increase Saturday
night... causing blowing and drifting snow Saturday night into Sunday.

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when severe winter weather is
possible... but not imminent. At the time... there is a potential for
significant snow accumulations. Future travel conditions may become
hazardous... so it is important to monitor the latest forecasts.

[LI Phil]

All the models are now coming into agreement...confirming my worst fears. On Long Island and southern New England, it will be a true blizzard with massive blowing and drifting of the snow and roads shut down. Long Island may be shut down Saturday and Sunday. Snowfall of 12-24 inches across the area.

[LI Phil]

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY350 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005...STRONG WINTER STORM HEADING OUR WAY....LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAYAFTERNOON...AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAYNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES.STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE ATWEATHER.GOV/OKX FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.CTZ009-NYZ071>077-220430-BRONX NY-KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-QUEENS NY-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-350 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005...A BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING.SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAYNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. FINAL SNOWACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 12 TO 15 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. INADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAYAFTERNOON...AND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGNORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILLRESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ORFREQUENT GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLEFALLING AND OR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILLBECOME POOR...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURINGOUTDOORS MAY BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNINGAREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

[LI Phil]

... A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for this afternoon through
Sunday morning...

Snow will move in late this morning. The snow will become very heavy
late this afternoon and evening..and may mix with sleet tonight as
warmer air moves in aloft. Total snow accumulations will be 14 to 21
inches by Sunday evening. In addition to the snow... northeast winds
will increase this afternoon... and will be quite gusty tonight and
Sunday morning. Winds may gust up to 50 mph late tonight and Sunday
morning... allowing visibilities to drop to near zero at times. These
winds will result in significant blowing and drifting of snow as well
as power outages. Wind chill values will be below zero at times.

A Blizzard Warning means that sustained wind speeds or frequent
gusts of over 35 mph are expected with considerable falling and or
blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities will become poor... with
whiteout conditions at times. Those venturing outdoors may become
lost or disoriented... so people in the warning area should stay
indoors.

Any travel is strongly discouraged. If you leave the safety of being
indoors... you are putting your life at risk.

This is a life-threatening winter weather situation! Preparations to
protect life and property should completed by noon today!

[LI Phil]

All the information is coming together for a major snowfall around our area. A vigorous area of low pressure is dropping into the Midwest. This will dive southward into the Ohio Valley. Then it will redevelop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night. It will pull NE Sunday. Snow will develop mid day Saturday and become heavy at times by evening. Snow will be heavy at times Saturday evening. The snow should wind down some overnight Saturday and some areas may even get a short break. As the coastal low winds up bands of snow will form parallel to the coast. These bands will produce light to moderate snow Sunday morning. The snow bands will gradually wind down and push east during the morning. The snow will end first from the City westward and then in the early afternoon over eastern LI.

Here's what I think we will see in total snowfall. This might be on the conservative side. If this ends up being the case I will increase totals tomorrow. 10-18" for Nassau County, 12-20" is possible further east on LI. Winds will gradually increase to 25-35 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures during the storm will range from the teens to the mid 20s. The combination of cold temps, gusty winds and heavy snow will make for near blizzard conditions.

For you weather enthusiats here's how I arrived at my totals. The ETA is giving the area anywhere from .75" far north to 1.75" liquid out on eastern LI. The AVN is drier. It gives the area from .5" north to 1" south and east. Taking an average of these leads me to a QPF around 1.00" with less north and more south and east. Ratios will average around 15 to 1 with higher ratios north and slightly lower along the NJ coast.

The latest 18z ETA gives LI over 2". With ratios above 10 to 1 you can do the math, Keith. I don't want to raise my totals yet. It is just too early to go any higher then I have.

[Jason234]

i'm getting beat like a rented mule over here. Visibilities down to about a quater of a mile and the windy area or Upper level disturbance hasn't come here yet.

[LI Phil]

Keith, see above...

This is going to be a top 5-er. You're psyched, but I'm not. One for the ages...

[LI Phil]

I'll be brief on the upcoming week: 2 clippers, one about to pass through, maybe a dusting to an inch; second clipper Wednesday...that could be more substantial, perhaps 1"-4". Still wicked cold, could even be colder than last week, if that's at all possible.

A split flow will dominate our pattern for a while. A ridge along the west coast will be the norm for the next week or beyond. There will be periods of blocking to our Northeast. These are all signs that winter weather looks to be in the cards for a while...then, we get to Sunday...

I will focus on the potential for next Sunday. The models are all showing something interesting around the Sunday time frame. The ECMWF and UKMET are in one camp with a northern and southern stream phase. The other models are in the other camp lead by the GFS with solely a southern stream system. The reason why the models have different solutions is clear. Simply, it is the degree of ridging in the west. The GFS breaks that ridging down. As a result all the short wave energy on top of the ridge moves zonally, directly east. The ECMWF keeps the ridge strong. That allows some (not all) of the short wave energy to dive southward from Canada into the Great Lakes on Saturday. All models show the energy in the Southwest US will slowly slide east into the SE by the weekend. Intially there will be some Cold Air Damming. But eventually the high slides off and so does the cold air. With out northern stream energy feeding back in, the SE storm does not have much of chance to get here. If it does it will take a lot of time crawling along at a snails pace (embedded in the weak flow down south). But with northern stream energy the SE storm is pulled northward. In this case the northern stream energy will supply enough cold air for snow/ ice.

At this point I don't know which solution is correct. I'm leaning towards the EC and UK. Here's why. I don't know if the northern stream energy will be as deep as the EC/UK are saying. BUT typically in a case where a south stream short wave is moving soooooooooo slowly through the SE, it will eventually get lifted north. You don't need that much northern stream energy. You need just a little and for that matter you really need only a little cold air. Remember with minimal northern stream input you will have a weak coastal low. BUT with a southern stream system it will be moisture laden. And since the low will not be strong... less warm air can be pumped in from the Atlantic on an east wind. So my thinking is that no matter how much northern stream energy feeds in, even if it just a little, the storm will eventually get to the NE. I don't know if it will happen on Sunday or after but odds are that eventually some moisture will get pulled up into marginal, but ample cold air.

[LI Phil]

... A Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 1 am Wednesday to 2 PM
EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory.

Snow will overspread the region from west to east after midnight.
Cold surface temperatures will allow for the snow to accumulate
1 to 2 inches by morning... resulting in slippery conditions for the
morning commute. The snow will then continue Wednesday morning
before tapering off from west to east by midday. Total snow
accumulation is expected to range from 2 to 4 inches. In addition...
some light freezing drizzle may occur Wednesday afternoon before the
precipitation ends.

The mentioned advisory is issued when snow and or ice is forecast to
develop in the affected areas... but accumulations are expected to be
light. Any snow or ice would make driving and walking difficult but
not impossible on untreated roadways and sidewalks. When temperatures
are below freezing... motorists need to be especially careful on
bridges and overpasses where slippery spots can easily develop.

[LI Phil]

Today...Snow likely...Mixing with rain and pockets of freezing drizzle...Before tapering to scattered snow showers this afternoon. Total snow accumulation around one...To possibly two inches. Highs in the mid 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph...Becoming northwest this afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Colder with lows around 12. North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent. Lowest wind chill readings as low as 8 below after midnight.

Thursday...Partly cloudy in the morning...Then clearing. Much colder with highs around 18. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Wind chill values as low as 9 below in the morning.

Thursday Night...Mostly clear. Lows around 8 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind chill values as low as 8 below.

Friday...Mostly sunny. Highs around 20. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings as low as 9 below in the morning.

Friday Night...Mostly clear. Lows 10 to 15.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Not as cool with highs in the mid 30s.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Not as cold with lows in the mid 20s.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain and snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Monday Night...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows around 30.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain and snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

[LI Phil]

Tonight will be one of the coldest nights this year with most temperatures dropping down in the single numbers above and below zero. Tomorrow will be another cold one as well but winds won't be as much of a factor. By this weekend the core of the coldest air will be pushing away and temperatures will rebound. By the end of the weekend and into next week temperatures should be near normal.

The overall pattern is looking, for lack of a more appropriate way to say this, odd! A split flow is developing across the lower 48. That means we will have a very active southern branch with disturbances embedded in it. The polar jet will for the most part be running near the Canadian border not allowing arctic shots of air southward. So our temperatures over the NE will be mostly near normal. As of now the weather looks rather benign next week with minimal chances of a big storm. But there are chances of some precipitation starting Sunday through mid-week. The chances will come mostly from southern stream shortwaves. With marginal temperatures there's no telling if the precip will be snow or rain, although I think the models are too warm. With the arctic express at full bore for tonight and tomorrow, and the big snowcover, I think we stay at or below freezing for the next week. And considering how strange the pattern is I don't even want to speculate on how each system will pan out. This is the kind of pattern that the models will not be able to nail specifics down until a day or two before the event. However with a split flow pattern somewhere down the line things are bound to get interesting. At some point the moisture along the southern stream should meet up with the cold air from the northern stream. We will just have to wait and see.

The bottom line is that trying to predict specific events in a pattern like this is a pretty much a waste of time. We will just have to wait a couple more days for clear signs from the models.

[Jason234]

the models may have a hard time with prediting these events...but people are better then the model's. But why not shoot for the fences?

[LI Phil]

the models may have a hard time with prediting these events...but people are better then the model's. But why not shoot for the fences?
That would be "Swing for the fences", but I get your point...72 hours out, Keith, 72 hours out...I'll make my call.

[LI Phil]

The good news: No snow for us for awhile. The not-so-good news is we are in for a prolonged stretch of cold, wintry weather.

Today will be the worst of it, with highs around 20 degrees and lows near 14. It's not the three or four degrees above zero some people are living through, but it's cold enough. We will have a sunny day.

Tomorrow, more sunshine and highs around 32 degrees.

It gets a little better on Sunday, and you'll notice the difference in how relatively mild it'll feel with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid-30's.

More of the same for Monday and Tuesday: sunshine, some clouds, highs in the mid to upper 30's. Our first shot at precipitation doesn't look like it's on the way until at least Wednesday.
http://a.abclocal.go.com/graphics/wabc/index_top_rshim.gif

[LI Phil]

There has been a very big shift in the weather pattern. This shift has lead to a lot of "blocking" in the atmosphere and very slow moving weather systems. So any changes over the next week will be very slow to occur. Overall high pressure and dry weather should dominate. Temperatures will gradually increase to near 40 by the middle of the week.

A storm over the Ohio Valley and SE will slide directly east over the next 24 hours. The shield of light snow associated with the parent low will move into the southern half of our area by daybreak Sunday morning. It looks to be a quick shot of very light snow. The way it looks now the most anyone will get could be an inch in Central NJ. The parent low will die transfering its energy to the coast of NC. As it does so drier air will filter south behind a weak cold front. That cold front will pass Sunday afternoon. All the moisture will jump south to the coastal and that will be all for whatever snow we have. Coastal lows tend to steal mositure from the parent low and focus the precip around themselves. This system will be no exception. So this looks to be no big deal for Sunday morning.

The coastal should then slowly crawl eastward into the Atlantic (there is a slim chance that the northern stream will not catch this. If that ends up being the case we will have a storm spinning its wheels just off the coast for days. That would pose a greater concern down the road.). High pressure and a NNE flow will build in for Monday. That should be a dry flow and so sunshine is expected Monday. My only concern is if the winds have a greater easterly component. That could keep us cloudy with flurries but that is a long shot at best. Temps on Monday should fall a notch from Sunday's high in the mid 30s because of that cold NNE wind. But on Tuesday the wind should relax allowing temps to once again rebound. By Wednesday 40 degrees for a high temperature is not out of the question.

In the longer term there are no storng signals of big storms. Eventually the pattern should become more progressive by next weekend. But how it will evolve after that is just too far away to tell. One more thing worth a quick mention is the retrograding storm over the Atlantic Ocean indicated by some models. It does bear some watching but it is a rather odd scenario. Although the low will probably retrograde at some point, odds are it will not push far enough west to affect the Long Island area.

[Jason234]

how long is "longer term"?

[LI Phil]

how long is "longer term"?
3-7 days...

Where's your forecast?

[Jason234]

Monday-mostly sunny/partly cloudy...High's lower 30's. Chance of isolated flurries...throughout entire day.

Tuesday-partly cloudy...High's in the mid-30's.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night-Mostly cloudy, high's in the mid 30's, low's in the mid 20's. Precip. overspread area late at night, it begins as snow and then after mid-nite changes over to rain. Accu. 2-4 inches, loccaly 6 depending on where the coastal front sets up.

Thrusday- Rain ending in the moring, highs in the upper 30's. Windy.

Friday- high's in the mid 30's. Mostly cloudy.

[LI Phil]

Anyone who has been paying attention to the evolving pattern over the past week has noticed the traffic jam in the atmosphere. We have a large ridge of high pressure over the Central and Eastern Atlantic. This high pressure is clogging up the atmosphere thus not allowing systems to move very much. The storm which gave us cloudiness yesterday (Sunday) is now drifting eastward into the open Atlantic. This storm will continue to drfit east and then stop in a day or two. In the meantime there is energy stuck in the Southwest US. This will begin to move out gradually this week and track into the SE. This is where the scenario becomes very complicated. For about a week one model or another has been trying to retrograde the Atlantic storm system. The more accurate way to describe this is that the surface reflection is reforming to the west, closer to the Eastern Seaboard. So what might seem like retrogression is really part retrogression and a larger part reformation. The reason I bring this point up is because the reformation is happening in response to upper-level energy evolving in the continental US. And it is the evolution of the upper-level pattern in the US that will determine where the Atlantic system reforms at / retrogrades to. To say the least this is a rare, odd and complicated pattern. I have been waiting to comment specifically on this systen until I see some computer model agreement. Finally last night and this morning there is a clear signal that the computer models are trending toward each other. The EC, GGEM, 06z GFS are now all close enough with coastal cyclogenesis for precipitation to occur Friday in the NYC metro area. The 06z ETA (NAM) is probably the most interesting solution of all the models. Although it does not go out past 84 hours, extrapolation would probably yield a significant coastal storm. The 06 GFS seems to be trending towards an ETA-like solution, albiet slowly. The ETA has been very good in the 60-84 hour range this season. So this has peaked my interest. The ETA solution is actually very different than the rest of the models... even the EC and GGEM. But the ETA has been consistent with itself. I am not sold on the 06z ETA but if I see one or two more model runs with consistency then we will be in business.

At this point I am not ready to commit to any solution. This mornings models, esp. the EC and ETA, will be very important. One important point to make is that if a coastal forms there is no guarantee that the precip. will be in the form of snow. It could very well be a big mess. The 850 mb temps on the models range from plus 2 to minus 2. If this is going to be an all snow event we will need some northern stream energy to interact.

[LI Phil]

I'll be brief this morning. I basically have no changes to the above forecast, but Thursday night-Friday could still be very interesting. For Today, we'll bust the freezing mark, and the moderation should last for a while...sunny and mild, normal temps for this time of year will be the rule today through Thursday. Tomorrow, I'll focus on the Friday weather event, which some of the models hint at 3" of the white stuff, while others have just plain rain. I will just make a brief statement about the two storms which will affect LI. The southern storm may be the weathermaker, but some of the models are pushing it west, pulling the retrograding storm into LI. Other models keep the ocean storm just off the coast. This will be key, as temps in the upper levels will be cold enough to support snow, but if you have the ocean storm throwing in warmer ocean air, it could be all rain. Temps friday are progged to reach 41, so any snow would be very heavy and wet...as I said, tomorrow I'll make the call. But enjoy the next three days!!! After two weeks of brutal cold this is a nice and welcome warmup.

[LI Phil]

Our first ten days of February are looking to stay pretty mild, but after that it's looking like we'll see more cold weather. That's a few days off, though , and for these next few days we'll enjoy some pretty mild weather.

Storms approaching from the east and west will avoid us for the most part in the next day, but the one to our east could throw some precipitation our way late tonight into Friday morning.


If that does happen, that rain or snow will fall only on far eastern sections of our area over Long Island.

Once that's past we are looking at a pretty good weekend.

Friday is looking mostly cloudy once that rain moves off, and highs will be in the 40's.

Saturday and Sunday are both very sunny and mild, with highs in the upper 40 and near 50 degrees. By Monday and Tuesday we could have partly cloudy skies and highs over the 50 degree mark.

[LI Phil]

(New York-WABC) — Snow, rain, slush: We had a very February start to our Friday, but this is not what the weekend is going to look like. In fact, it is looking really mild and sunny the whole time.



When the final totals come in, we could end up seeing two to four inches of snow on parts of Long Island. Most saw a coating to an inch of snow, or just rain.

Today's not a washout: After the snow and rain move out, Friday will be pretty nice. It'll never get really mild because of some cool air over us. But what a difference Saturday! We'll have sunny skies and highs near 50 degrees.

It's the same story on Sunday, a fantastic day.

Monday more clouds move in but it stays dry with highs in the 50's. Rain is in the forecast for Tuesday, but it should be just that--rain, with temps over 50 degrees and near 40 degrees overnight.

[Jason234]

high's in the mid-50's today. Not record warmth, but good for the plants and stuff to get ready for the next LEGENDARY ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

[LI Phil]

The storm that has been spinning around in the Atlantic is now combining with the weak low pressure that produced the snow/rain this morning. This new storm will do the same as the old Atlantic storm. It will set up shop for several days and just meander out there. High pressure will build over our area and be in no hurry to move out. High pressure will be blocked by the low spinning out in the Atlantic. This means that sunshine will persist all weekend and into early next week. Also, temperatures will respond to that sunshine. Highs should be above normal... low 50s away from the coast and in the mid 40s near the cooler ocean. On Tuesday high pressure will begin to break down and clouds will move in. A few hit and miss showers are possible Tuesday and into Wednesday but niether of those days should be a wash out. In fact some sunny breaks are likley as well. The main storm which is out west now will move east and give us some steadier and heavier rain Wednesday night into Thursday. As the storm moves out colder air will filter in and perhaps change the rain to snow on the backside. The main effect of this storm passage will be to change the pattern once again to winter by week's end/ next weekend.

Let's discuss the evolution of the pattern change next week. The ridge that is establishing itself over the NE for the weekend will begin to break down Tuesday. A series of weak disturbances embedded in the jetstream will knock the western side of the ridge eating away at the ridge bit by bit. Then there will be one significant system that will reach the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. If there has been anything questionable it is how strong each particular disturbance is going to be. The GFS has been showing a series of disturbances followed by a moderate storm Thursday. On the GFS this results in a ridge that is "broken" earlier and an eventual track of the main storm that is further south and east (and weaker) on Thursday. The ECMWF is putting more of its eggs into the Thursday storm basket. This results in more ridging maintained in the east, a stronger main low on Thursday, and a more north/west track of the Thursday surface low. The GGEM is somewhere in the middle. There's really no debate here... the EC and GGEM will be correct. The GFS is just showing its typical SE and weak bias. The GFS will and already is showing signs of coming around. This will result in less clouds/showers through Wednesday and a larger main storm on Thursday. The track will be west of our area and we will get rain, not snow. The tricky part comes just after the low passes. All models show this low slowing down and almost stalling. For Eastern New England and northern NY this probably means wrap around snow on the backside of low pressure. Depending on the placement of low pressure and how slow it moves out the Tri-state area could even see a change to snow on the west side of this storm. But this kind of thing is rare around here. So if I were a betting man I'd would not bet on much. The reason I bring this up is that the18z GFS is showing a significant snowfall on the backside of the Thursday storm. But considering the GFS is too far south with its low placement, a significant backlash snow is very unlikely. Whatever happens cold air will return to the NE by the end of next week and weekend. All the models show the pattern then slowing down in response to the Thursday storm stalling to our NE. This will keep the trough in place for some time. The models are also indicating an active short-wave pattern. The short-waves will likely be forced southward by the blocking/ buckling pattern. By the looks of it we are probably entering into one of the most interesting patterns of this winter starting next weekend.

[Jason234]

it's a rex block...I'm going to the beach today, gonna be like 30 mph winds.

[Jason234]

Monday-highs around in the mid 40's...mostly sunny.

Tues- high's in the upper 40's. Mostly cloudy with a chance of hit or miss showers.

Wed- Rain starting in afternoonn, mixing with sleet and snow toward late evening.

Thrus- Snow in the morning changing to sleet, freezing rain, in the afternoon then back to snow later in the day.

Thrus night/Fri-snow ending Friday morning-moderate accum. possible.

[LI Phil]

This is going to be yet another tough forecast for the late week system. Let's start with how the pattern forecast has changed since last week. It turns out that the GFS was the first to catch onto the initial, early week, short-waves breaking down the ridge enough here in the east to allow the main storm to push further south. The other models generally had the ridge built up along the east coast forcing the main low west of us. Now there is general agreement that the ridge will be broken down little by little. This of course will impact the main storm to follow. The main storm will now take longer to form, take a further south track, and be weaker (initially). With that said there is still a lot of model uncertainty for the main storm Wednesday night and Thursday. The EC has been the deepest/ most consistent for two consecutive runs. The 00z EC shows a surface low forming in Western VA Wednesday evening. The EC deepens this rapidly to a "979 mb cut-off" 24 hours later over Cape Cod. Then the EC stalls the storm only moving it 100 miles north to the Maine coast 24 hours later. That scenario would be a major blizzard for New England and a rain to significant snow for Long Island. The UKMET showed this same scenario yesterday but lost the storm last night. So now the EC is alone in showing this substantial outcome. The other models are much weaker to varying degrees. The real issue on the models is that there is a constant stream of energy (short-waves) aloft. The EC manages to key on "one" short-wave as the leader and then focuses the other energy around it. The other models are much slower to do this and maintain a rather "strung out" look. By the time the other models gather all the energy the "ship has sailed" and the storm is about over for the NYC area. So this is the central question... Will this trough continue to produce a series of weak-ish disturbances or will the energy put its eggs in one basket for an EC type scenario?

Here's what I think. I have looked carefully at the upper-levels. Remember it's all about the upper-levels. The surface panels mean nothing if the upper-levels reveal something different. The GFS and GGEM ensembles are leaning deeper with the Thursday storm then their respective parent models. In fact the ensembles were more useful in this situation then they typically are. Those ensembles also show a further west organization of the trough as a whole. This fact alone means we will have a stronger/ further west solution than the GFS and GGEM. With that said I have examined the EC 500mb set-up at 3 days and 4 days. There are two things that I don't like. First the way the trough changes and hieghts lower (in the Tennessee Valley and SE) by day 3 does not seem logical. In other words the bottom of that trough seems too "diggy". Then from day 3 to day 4 the phasing seems overdone and the cutting off seems to occur too fast. Just look at the 500 mb hieghts from day 3 to 4. The center of the trough goes from 540-ish to 522 in 24 hours. I am all for rapid intensification but how did this occur without optimum phasing? I love the EC and I rarely have a reason to disagree with it, but the rapid evolution just does not make sense. The other models are weighing more heavily "renegade" energy on the backside of this trough. That "renegade" energy is taking away from the main storm by not putting all the eggs/energy in one basket. When I see this type of solution on so many models for so many runs its hard to ignore. This trough is going to take more time to organize than the EC shows because of the renegade energy "tugging" on the west side of this trough.

So the two ideas that I am going to use to formulate this forecast are:
1. The EC is overdone
2. The ensembles say the GFS/GGEM is underdone

It is easy to say that you think a compromise solution is in order. I don't like doing that unless there is a logical explanation for it. In this case the evidence is clear to me that you must double the GFS/GGEM solution and half the ECMWF. So here's my forecast. Rain develops later Wednesday as the main low slowly takes shape. Colder air will gradually filter in Wednesday night changing the rain to snow. This snow will continue the first half of Thursday. I think the low will cut-off (as per the EC and some ensemble members) but I think for most in my area this will happen too far NE. I do think some accumulation is possible in all areas but the theme of this storm will be the same as so many this season. "IF" we are to see significant accumulations you will most likely have to go east (Long Island) and NE (CT). In this situation the Hudson Valley also stands a chance as well.

Stay tuned. The specifics won't be nailed down until Wednesday. But look for a "subdued" EC solution to occur. This should still mean a significant snowfall for New England.

[LI Phil]

Here's what Upton is forecasting for the storm:

GFS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT WEDNESDAY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THEN MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. WILL START AS ALL LIQUID UNTIL THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX WITH SNOW THEN A CHANGE TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY THURSDAY. AS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

[Jason234]

my forecast is on track

[Jason234]

Here's what i say....The Canadian shortwave is the biggest player, and it has not entered the field yet-that's why it's such a hard forecast. I feel that the shortwave amplifies the trof moderately, 3/4 in between the Euro (EC) and GFS. The NAM is out to lunch on this so is the GFS but they have good idea's. Then the storm takes a more northeastward course out to the warm water...and 3 inches land's in boston, with the bulk of the snow falling in SE connecticut and the north shore of long island, due to the coastal front. If the low where to take a path such as what the EC suggests then boston would see a mix, as the dynamics for lift would be from warming, and not from cooling. Nevertheless wind's will be brisk...and blizzard like conditions are not out of the question. Time is the only medicine for this forecast.

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement As of 5:14 am EST on February 8, 2005

An area of low pressure will develop over the mid-Atlantic states on
Wednesday... before moving off the coast Wednesday night. This storm
will track south of Long Island Wednesday night... before passing
south and east of Nantucket on Thursday. Initially rain will
overspread the region Wednesday afternoon. However... as temperatures
begin to fall and the winds turn more northerly as the storm passes
to our south... the rain will start to mix with and then change over
to snow Wednesday night. By Thursday... the entire region will have
changed to all snow... before precipitation begins to wind down
Thursday afternoon.

The amount and type of precipitation... will depend on the exact
track... strength and speed of the storm as it intensifies south of
Long Island. A track close to Long Island would allow a milder
easterly wind flow from off the ocean to result in more of the
precipitation falling in the form of rain... while a track further
south would result in more of the precipitation falling as snow as
more northerly winds would cool the atmosphere. However... too
much of a shift to the south would cause the heaviest precipitation
to fall over the waters to our south.

At the moment it appears that only minor accumulations will occur
over the tri-state region. However... a small shift in the track of
the low could result in dramatic shifts in the forecast. Please stay
tuned... as it is still too early to determine the exact track.

[LI Phil]

It will take a good part of Thursday to get the surface air temperatures to freezing especially around Long Island. West and North of the City the snow should be going during the morning commute Thursday. Temps should cool to freezing by mid morning. Most of the day temps should fall slowly but areas that dry slot could see temps briefly rise a few degrees during that period. By mid afternoon, depending on where the snow bands are, suburbs of the City should cool to freezing. In the Urban areas and over eastern sections it might take all afternoon to get temps to freezing. Since the storm is forming a little late the precip on the backside of the surface low will form near and over the Tri-State area. This means that the snow will not be steady. Instead it will come in waves and bands until the backlash fills in later Thursday. If you want accumulating snow in a marginal temperature situation like this you need steady snow. This will not be the case for most until later. So on Long Island the accumulating snow is going to have to wait until nearly sunset Thursday. Areas far north of LI should see accumulating snow most of the day. The hilly areas of Long Island might also be able to squeeze 2-4" out. All other areas from the City south should be in that 1-3". In these areas the accumulations will mostly be on grassy areas.

[Jason234]

4 to 6 inches....due to the cloumn cooling faster then excepted, because heavier bands move through faster. Backlash snow's we'll be aplenty and the dry slot WILL NOT be the inhibiting factor. The backlash snow will be as a result of the bombongensis occuring along the coast, and the cooling and moistening of the upper level's of the atmosphere.

[LI Phil]

http://www.pusboil.com/yipikiya.wav

[Jason234]

we'll see bout' that.

[LI Phil]

http://www.moviewavs.com/cgi-bin/moviewavs.cgi?Bruce_Almighty=megabyteme.wav

[LI Phil]

A storm system will move out of the Ohio Valley and toward the
tri-state region as the day progresses. The relative warmth of
the past couple of days is indicative of the lack of cold air across
the region for this storm to work with. Thus... enough warm air will
be present for the precipitation to start out as rain across the area
late this afternoon and evening.

The storm will rapidly intensify as it emerges off the mid Atlantic
coast near the southern tip of New Jersey toward daybreak Thursday.
As the storm pulls away... colder air will begin to rush into the
region from the northwest. The rain will begin to change to snow from
northwest to southeast late tonight and during the day on Thursday.
Snow should linger through much of the day Thursday... but most of
the heaviest snow by that time should be confined to areas further
north... across central New England.

The best chance for accumulating snows will be areas north and east
of New York City... such as the lower Hudson Valley and interior
Connecticut... especially at higher elevations. How much snow we see
will be highly sensitive to the exact track and intensity of the low
as it moves off the New Jersey coast late tonight.

[LI Phil]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Upton Ny
1242 Pm Est Wed Feb 9 2005

.short Term Update (this Afternoon)...

Made Very Minor Changes To The Afternoon Grids With Temperatures (slightly Higher)...and Sky Condition (many Thin Spots In Ovc Layer In Eastern Sections). Otherwise...no Changes.

Previous Discussion...

Things Are Starting To Take Shape With The Event From Later This
Afternoon Into Thursday Night...however Significant Questions Remain Unanswered. The Models Have Shifted Back Toward A Warmer Solution... Along With Higher Amounts Of Qpf. Models Now Fairly Close To Agreement With Thermal Profiles Through Tonight Into Thursday Morning. We Will Be Quite Warm To Start...and It Looks Warm Enough Even For All Rain For A Significant Portion Of The Storm Even Across Inland Locations. Confidence Is High For A Warm Solution For The Onset Due To Current Temperatures...and Thermal Profiles...as Well As Model Agreement That The 850 Hpa Low Will Traverse The Cwa. This May Be Good News For Those Who Do Not Want A Major Snow Event...but It Comes With A Price. There Still Is A Significant Snowpack Across Portions Of The Area...with As Much As Half A Foot Of Snow Depth Being Reported Across The East End Of Long Island. A Lot Of Storm Drains Remain Clogged With Old Snow...and Rain Could Come Down Heavy Enough To Cause Some Flooding Problems In Urban Areas...as Well As In Smaller Streams.

The Tricky Part Of The Forecast Starts Late Tonight...toward Daybreak On Thursday. At This Point...as The Center Of The Surface And 850 Hpa Circulations Traverse The Region...this Will Start To Allow Northerly Flow On The Backside Of These Circulations To Advect Colder Air Back In From Northwest To Southeast As The Day Progresses. This Will Start The Changeover Process Back Over To Snow Thurs Morning As The Thermal Profiles Cool. Estimated Changeover Times Are Around Or Shortly After 12z For Far North And West And Higher Elevations On Either Side Of The Hudson Valley...to Mid To Late Morning For The City And Nearby Suburbs...and Interior Sections Of Connecticut...to Early Afternoon For Much Of Long Island And Coastal Connecticut...and Mid-afternoon For The Twin Forks. A Lot Will Depend On When And Where The Deformation Zone Develops... And If Any Banding Occurs From Late Tonight On...as Heavy Precipitation Associated With Strong Lift Can Cool A Marginal Thermal Profile Sufficiently To Result In Snow. However...these Are Mesoscale Effects That Are Low Confidence Portions Of A Forecast That Is Still At Least 24 To 36 Hours Out. Do Not Think That We Will Reach Warning Criteria Anywhere...but Can Not Completely Rule This Out For Much Of Connecticut...especially Interior Sections. At The Moment...have A Moderate Level Of Confidence That Advisory Criteria Snowfalls Will Occur In These Locales...but Will Not Pull The Trigger Quite Yet. There Are A Couple Of Reasons For This. One...we Will Likely Not See Any Flakes Fly In Either Of The First Two Periods...and Likely Not For Another 30 Hours In Most Places. And Second...if You Had Asked Me Last Night For Forecast Snow Amounts Across The Area I Would Have Given You Numbers Roughly Double Of What I Think Now. The Shift Toward A Warmer Solution Along With The
Warm Airmass In Place At The Onset Definitely Results In A Low-confidence Forecast. Anywhere From A Significant Amount...to
Almost All Of The Qpf That Falls With This System Will Fall In The
From Of Rain. Bufkit Profiles Estimate That Roughly Two-thirds Or
More Of The Qpf Will Be Liquid. Right Now...it Appears That The Big
Snows Will Be Well To Our North And Northeast Across Portions Of New England.

At The Moment...would Estimate That For The City And Long Island
Would See A Gradient That Ranges From An Inch Or So For The City To 1-2 For Nassau And Western Suffolk And 2-3 For The East End. Further North...across The Lower Hudson Valley And Southern Connecticut... These Amounts Could Be Adjusted Upward Anywhere From 1 To 3 Inches. The 06z Eta Has Continued The Warming Trend...tracking The 850hpa Low A Little Further Inland Than Before. It Also Deepens This Feature Which Will Likely Result In Further Infiltration Of Relatively Mild Air. This Will Make It Even Tougher For Eastern Portions Of The Cwa To Transition To A Cold Enough Temperature Profile To Support Snow For A Significant Amount Of Qpf.

[Jason234]

I am not getting cold feet, I'm fighting for snow. Maybe we won't get any from the intial storm, but with the height drops the NAM, MM5 and even the GFS are indicating have to support some type of organized banding features. What I also find amazing is that the NWS is not putting out a chance of thunderstorms for tomorrow morning, once the low reaches the Deleware bay it will bomb out...where it drop like 40 mb's in one less then one day. Convection will be present no doubt about it, and I am very concerned about thunderstorms coming ashore here. If they do temp. profiles will be more concurrent for snow later in the day. NYC I don't think you'll get any, but we'll see- backlash snows might do it for you. Also, there seems to be a new ridging entering the picture Sunday-Monday time period, which wasn't seen until today. With the fact that models like to intially underestimate ridging it could be another snowstorm for new england. In the near future, next Wednesday looks like will we be saying a MAJOR change in weather. If anyone saw the model run by the Canadian you'll now what i mean, and the scary part is the Canadian normally does better with the cold. Could this be a omen to what I'm forecasting- you bet. And one more thing, I have a strong inkling to believe that winter will rage into March this year if and only if the block moves back farther enough so that the Upper air flow for NYC is coming from like 90 N! Stock up on oil, try and get a locked in rate...please do this now!!

[LI Phil]

4 to 6 inches....due to the cloumn cooling faster then excepted, because heavier bands move through faster. Backlash snow's we'll be aplenty and the dry slot WILL NOT be the inhibiting factor. The backlash snow will be as a result of the bombongensis occuring along the coast, and the cooling and moistening of the upper level's of the atmosphere.WRONG! Will you admit to a busted forecast? Not only will we not get 1", we may be lucky to even see some wet snow (which will not stick) towards the end of the event. I'll give you this, you stuck with your guns, but now you have to go down with the ship. I should have stuck with my initial forecast, which called for a rain event for the major I-95 cities except Boston...but I bought into the models and the hype. This is still going to be a major nor'easter, just not for the populated areas of the country...

Now, as far as the cold getting entrenched sometime after the 15th, I'll also stick with my initial thoughts, which are in agreement with yours (Keith). We're in a pattern which is setting up to produce at least one more blizzard for the northeast, and I'm thinking possibly TWO big snow events before all is said and done. It's still prime snow time here, and the cold will return...this positive NAO which is giving us the warmth will flop back negative in the next week and the cool Canadian air of which Cass is so fond will pour south. The record cold over Alaska has to go somewhere, and the midwest and east will be where it goes. Interestingly, the split flow should continue (northern & southern jets), but I expect at least one if not two southern storms to make it far enough north to cause us some grief beginning in the middle of next week. The North American Model (NAM-RIP ETA) never quite got a hold of this one, so the big winner is the EC, which nailed this one (see the Winter Weather thread for my posting of that model), and to a lesser extent the CMC, but as usual, the GFS was out to friggin' lunch.

Oh well, no snow day for me. I will be wearing galoshes to work tomorrow, das fo' sho'.

[LI Phil]

Low Pressure Over The Area Early This Morning Will Intensify And Move East Of New England By This Evening. A Gale Warning Is In Effect For The Ocean Waters For Frequent Gusts To 35 Knots Tonight...and A Small Craft Advisory Is In Effect For Long Island Sound And New York Harbor For Occasional Gusts 30 To 35 Knots.

There Could Also Be Some Minor Flooding Around The Time Of High Tide This Morning On New York Harbor...western Long Island Sound And The More Vulnerable Back Bay Locations Of The Long Island South Shore.

There May Be Some Minor Snow Accumulations Of Less Than An Inch Late This Afternoon Into Tonight As Precipitation Wraps Around The Back Side Of The Departing Low. Precipitation And Snowmelt Today May Also Refreeze On Area Roadways And Walkways Tonight.

[LI Phil]

First let's discuss today's system. Cold air is filtering southward and rain showers should turn to snow showers later today. This storm will develop a backlash as predicted but too little, too late and too far north/east to receive any appreciable snow. So if there are any accumulations they will be mostly north and east of the city and minor. Most folks will see only a coating (or less). As I like to do with all miss forecasts let's discuss what went wrong. This is a rather simple one. The upper-level low was just too far north and west of the surface low. Two days ago it looked as though the upper-level lows would pass pretty much overhead. That was already too far north for a significant accumulation but would have delivered a few inches to areas north of the Island. It turns out that the upper-level lows ended up being 100 miles further north. And in order to be in the backlash you really need to be much closer to the 700mb low. Also backlash is maximized once the low level low and upper level low meet up and become stacked vertically. That is happening too late. So the real snow that was predicted to clip our area north of the Island is now shifted 100 miles further north with the cloud-level low. Other than the details I am very happy with the medium range forecasting of this storm. The storm did almost exactly as I had thought... ending up being a true compromise between the ECMWF and GFS solutions (but again the leader was the EC). But the old saying holds true, "the devil is in the details". Overall the storm was forecast magnificently. The details were not. The issue is that I feel compelled to forecast details over 48 hours away. Sometimes it works out and others times it does not. In this particular case we were on the "edge" of the storm. So a shift of 100 miles either way, south or north, would make the difference between 6" of snow and flurries. Those are the harder calls. If we knew that our area was smack in the middle of a storm system then details become easier. If you know you are going to be in the middle of a major snow storm and the track shifts 100 miles you will still end up with something substantial. In those cases if you predict 6-12" of snow 2 days out and you end up with 6" or 18" it still looks like a pretty good forecast.

Now for a quick look into our future. Friday will be breezy and cold with temps in the 30s and windchills in the teens and 20s. We will see a gradual moderation to near or slightly above normal by Sunday under partly sunny skies. Some flurries are possible Saturday night. The next storm system will hit Monday late into Tuesday. This should be a mostly rain event and should be the beginning of a 2-3 day shift back to winter. Behind it cooler air will filter south bringing us back to normal by mid-week after a warmer start to the week. The day to watch is 2 days after that cold front passes, so Thursday give or take. There will be some energy riding west to east acorss the nation and an arctic boundary dropping south from Canada. I don't know the details of how this will evolve but some precip should accompany this front/storm by Thursday-ish. At that time the air should be cold enough for snow or a mix around these parts. After this system passes a return to prolonged winter seems in the cards. Very cold air should settle across most of the US. Also, there are are good signals from the models that some blocking (what Keith calls a "Rex" block and I refer to as an "Omega" block) will establish itself near Greenland through eastern Canada. We have seen this before so I will not jump on it yet. But for cold and snow lovers the pattern looks promising in the not so distant future.

[Jason234]

good analysis. Did you see that water in the east pacific, cold. It looks like the el nino was beheaded.

[LI Phil]

In fact, it looks like we're headed for la nina. And just in time for hurricane season.

[Jason234]

would not say that...the el nino has been extremly capricious.

[LI Phil]

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high around 39. Northwest wind between 17 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. West wind between 11 and 14 mph.

Saturday: A chance of flurries between 9am and 1pm, then a chance of sprinkles between 1pm and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. West wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low near 26. Northwest wind around 7 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 36. North wind around 6 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29.

Monday: A chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 33.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 42.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 36.

[Jeffery McElroy]

Dude, your daily highs don't even break 40? I feel bad for you guys. It was 80 degrees here yesterday afternoon :biggrin:

[LI Phil]

This is actually a bit above normal. We had about a 10-day period in January where the HIGH never broke the freezing mark, and two days (not consecutive) where the HIGH was 10 or below! Now THAT'S cold...

[Jeffery McElroy]

Winter sucks.

[LI Phil]

The trough and cool air over the NE will lift out today. Milder air will move in gradually Monday and Tuesday. A weakening short-wave will bring showers later Monday. The short-wave will not be able to tap any northern stream energy so the air behind it will actually be more mild Tuesday. The polar cold front will drop southward Tueday night and Wednesday with some showers. Colder air will follow for late week. Some questions arise after this time. Will the cold air stay put? How will the next couple of short-waves evolve? In answer to the first question it seems like the deep cold air will slide in and out in about 2 days. However temperatrues should settle near normal beyond that period. The polar boundary will remain near with cold high pressure over Canada/Northern Tier of the US. About 2-3 days after the Wednesday cold frontal passage a northern stream short-wave will dive southward. Most models are flat with this system but who knows this far out. A more important short-wave, northern/southern stream combo, will follow in the 8-10 period. At this time cold air will still be hanging around so as it stands now this will be the one to watch. I don't want to get into any more detail than this because it is just a waste of time. This year (except for January's warm 2 weeks and cold 2 weeks) patterns have been very transient. If there is going to be another major snow storm there needs to be a little breathing room between patterns. When patterns break down/ cold air comes and goes every 3 days there's little chance for short-waves to materialize into significant snow makers. Everytime blocking evolves it dissolves just as fast. There's certainly more promise for the 2nd half of February but I'll beleive it when I see it. As we have seen many times in past seasons, when a pattern sets up it often becomes the calling card for the whole season. Things will become more clear early this week.

[LI Phil]

I'm expecting freezing rain followed by all rain on the Island and a mix of ice and snow north and west. It'll all arrive around 11:00 a.m. and should move out by late tonight.





It will be quite a rainy event for the Island, and quite a mess outside of north and west of the City. Watch out for that afternoon commute, because it should still be coming down strongly then. Everyone who still has snow and freezing rain will change over to all rain by about 7:00 pm after a day of rising temperatures.


On Tuesday the temperatures are really off to the races! We'll see high temps of about 56 degrees with a mix of clouds and sun. That's about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wednesday highs are around 50 degrees and we have more clouds than sun but it's dry. Thursday a cold front moves in and both that day and Friday we won't break 40 degrees, but it's looking to be dry through the weekend at this point.

[Jason234]

it's raining here, with howling southeasterly winds.

[LI Phil]

it's raining here, with howling southeasterly winds.
No shit, I just got back from walking my dog. It's windy, cold and the rain is falling sideways.

I ****in' hate winter!:icon_evil

[Jason234]

bad monday....

[LI Phil]

bad monday....
"BLACK" Monday. Valentines Day Sucks My Huge Internet ****!

[Jason234]

never heard of "black" monday...

[LI Phil]

never heard of "black" monday...
Well now you have...Black Monday tm LI Phil!:bootyshak

[Jason234]

it's almost like black tuesday but not quite.

[LI Phil]

it's almost like black tuesday but not quite.
Never heard of Black Tuesday...But I have heard of Black Friday and Black Sunday. Black Friday referring to the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and it's also a song by Steely Dan. Black Sunday was a novel and a movie about a plan to ruin the super bowl...

[LI Phil]

Today is going to be an incredible winter day with clouds & some sun and highs in the 50s to near 60 around the area. But it's back to reality later this week. Tomorrow a sharp cold front will move through during the middle of the day. Showers will arrive from west to east around noon give or take. We will have an early high in the 50s and then temps will tumble during the later part of the day as winds crank up out of the NW. Thursday will be much colder and still breezy with highs only in the upper 30s. That cold air will continue to filter south Friday and Saturday. Both days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low to mid 30s.

Well it is finally time to start seriously discussing the possibility of a snow storm around President's day. This is something that has been shown in one form or another on the models for days. For weeks now the pattern has been showing signs of shifting into a snow making pattern. Here's what I mean. So far this winter patterns have come and gone quickly. Cold air seems to settle in and then moves out before the pattern has a chance to produce snow storms. The whole season has been dominated by the polar jetstream's positions. Now for the first time this year the southern branch of the jet stream will become active in our weather pattern. At the same time the polar Jetstream will stay close to our area in the northern half of the US. The is because of the -NAO which we hear so much about. Basically this means there is blocking to our N/NE over Greenland and around 50/50 (lat. and long.). This blocking locks cold air into the NE US.

I wanted to wait until I had a handle on the evolution of this short-wave entering the SW US before I posted this. First let's address the polar jetstream. The polar jetstream will dive southward Wednesday and establish a trough Thursday across the eastern US. Unlike so many cold shots this year the cold air will hang around and high pressure will slow down on top of us. Weak shortwaves will dive southward embedded in the flow and give us chances of flurries from Thursday through Saturday. Initially these short-waves will be potent as they drop out of Canada but they will be entering a fast confluent flow aloft. That type of flow tends to shear and rip systems apart. Thus when the systems get to the NE US there won't be much left. The best chance of some snow flurries or snow showers will be late Friday into early Saturday with a weak Alberta Clipper. Meanwhile on Saturday the southern stream energy in the SW will begin to make a move eastward. This too will be entering a confluent flow across the nation's middle. For you folks who have been paying attention to the models for the past few days this is why some solutions have been progressive and weak. As one might imagine the GFS has been the most progressive, furthest south and weaker. This is typical for the GFS. The ECMWF has been the deepest with the energy and the least sheared. The GGEM has been on par with the EC as well. If you look at the 00z and 06z GFS from today you will notice the GFS has progressed northward. The reason is as follows. The GFS is now showing a northern stream short-wave digging in behind the southern strean short-wave as it exits the SW US. Remember the upper -level flow acts as a see-saw. When energy dives south in the west the flow rises north in the east. Therefore the GFS is carrying the southern stream short-wave further north. Also by building the ridge a little in the SE US it allows this southern stream short-wave to be less sheared and more amplified. This is a big turn by the GFS. I think the idea is correct BUT it might have went too far the other way. I really like the EC solution from 00z. I am still not all that happy with the GGEM. Here's the issue with the GGEM and now the GFS. Cold air and high pressure is stubborn. Inevitably it will take longer than the models advertise for high pressure to move out of the NE. The airmass that will settle across the NE later this week and weekend is going to be heavy. The GGEM and GFS are suspect to me because they drive the storm right into the heart of cold heavy air. I won't argue with the initial movement into the western Ohio Valley but it is going to be hard for the storm to displace the surface high pressure and upper-level confluence across the the NE. So I would argue for an eventual track closer to the 00z ECMWF. And also at this point I would argue against the overly sheared solutions of the older GFS runs although there is no doubt that some shearing of the SW energy is bound to happen. Towards the end of the weekend the confluent flow over the NE will begin to slowly budge and some northern stream energy might be able to partially phase with the southern stream short-wave which at that time will be over the nation's mid section. Once this occurs, the weakening SW short-wave will begin to rebuild in the Ohio Valley. This system will affect us on Monday-ish. It is too early to say how significant this will be but this certainly has more potential than most systems this year. The fact that it will have a southern stream connection and Gulf Moisture makes this system unique for this winter. So the questions we may face down the road are: If high pressure is strong then how far north can this storm come? Or if high pressure moves out a little faster will the cold air be displaced by the incoming storm. On this 2nd question I feel that it is going to take a lot of doing to get this cold air out. It is certainly possible that the cold air will eventually getted push out but I think that if that were to occur the damage would already be done. Given the set-up a redevelopment of the low to the coast seems likely when the main low feels the cold high pressure across the NE. The cold air in place ahead of the system bodes well for snow lovers. The only issue is that there is no strong high to the NW of the storm filtering new cold air southward. So we will have to make due with the inital cold air mass. Cold air damning seems likely in this scenario as well. But we can't rely on new cold air from Canada.

Stay tuned! This is bound to be interesting. And looking a bit futher down the road the general split flow pattern continues with cold air available. So if this one doesn't materialize then the next one could.

[LI Phil]

We have a cold, windy day for Thursday and a few more cold days ahead of us before we warm back up.

Temperatures will only get up to the high 30's and it will be blustery. There could be a flurry or two overnight.

More cold air is on the way for Friday, and the weekend. We'll be in the upper 30's all three days.

There is stormy weather that could bring us snow and maybe sleet and rain for President's Day Monday. There have been some big President's Day storms in our area. This won't be a big storm, but it could be messy. We will see slightly warmer temperatures for Monday, with highs back in the 40s.

[LI Phil]

It's going to be a little colder than normal today. The temperatures dropped down last night and combined with the gusty wind will make for a very brisk day. It's the second shot of cold air from this particular push, which came in on Wednesday night. The high will be a brisk, cold 33 degrees, with significantly colder temperatures in northern areas. We should see a THIRD cold shot move in late Saturday. As this little front sections off the colder air, it will generally reinforce the idea that for now - all the way through the weekend - we're running a little colder than normal.



Today we'll have clouds and sunshine, with mostly clear skies. We may even see a little snow flurry or two especially in northern areas, but none of that will really stick. Tonight we'll drop down to 18 degrees. It will be in the 30s through the weekend and we won't get back into the 40s until early next week. Long Island is also expecting snow on Sunday night, into Monday morning - I'll be watching that carefully through the weekend. It could end up dumping a few inches. Models are calling for the snow to turn to rain towards the end of the event, but I'm not buying this scenario. I could be very wrong (I enjoy crow very much, thank you), but I don't see enough warm air from the southern jet getting here to change this over to rain. It's a tough call right now...will make the definitive forecast either later today or tomorrow.

[LI Phil]

Strong High pressure is building in from Canada. That will give us a mostly dry weekend but also very cold. For the past two days we have had snow showers and flurries from time to time. This is due to upper level energy hanging around the NE and some moisture from the Great Lakes. The last bit of that energy will pass by early Saturday morning. So up until that point we are fair game for a passing flurry or snow shower. Both Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy and cold with highs barely into the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. Later Sunday clouds will begin to increase ahead of the next storm system. This will not be a strong storm but will produce snow later Sunday night into Monday. It may end as light rain after a few inches of accumulation. The exact amounts are too early to call being that there is still a wide variation in storm track scenarios.

As most of you know the models have been wacky this week but with good reason. This disturbance moving out of the SW trough is moving into confluent flow. This causes it to shear and weaken. The models have a tough time with weak short-waves because it is hard for them to resolve. The GGEM/GFS have been essentially washing out the southern stream short-wave and phasing it into the northern stream. The outcome is a surface low that feels the tug of the northern stream energy and moves west into the great lakes. The NAM and now the 00z ECMWF have the storm suppressed and even reforming into a perhaps meaningful coastal low. The reason for the further south solution of the NAM is that this model is better able to resolve individual pieces of energy. Therefore it keeps the southern stream energy distinct and seperate from the northern stream. Another interesting aspect of the NAM vs the GFS is that they both seem to be indicatating 2 pieces of energy that eject from the SW. They handle both of these features differently. These two features and the way they are handled is the reason for the large timing difference of these two models. The GFS is putting most of its eggs into the lead short-wave and pushing it along at a good clip. If you believe the GFS we are getting snow as early as Sunday nightfall. The NAM "feels" the energy behind the inital southern stream short-wave and makes the surface low wait. Notice that the GFS sees this energy as well but does something totally different from the NAM. The GFS tries to develop another surface low in the middle Atlantic Monday night. So the difference seems to be that the NAM wants to make this one whole system... keeping the surface low waiting over the Ohio Valley for the 2nd shot of energy to make it east. The GFS wants two different systems. I know this is complicated but that's why the models are having a very tough time. This pattern is so difficult that I even looked at the NOGAPS this morning. It seems to be having the same problem and so it shows 3 surface minimums of low pressure embedded in a broad area of low pressure that stretches from the Carolinas to Central Canada. So the bottom line is that there are a lot of weak pieces of energy and the models don't know which if any will lead the pack.

So what do I think? I think that all the models are correct. Let me explain. There will probably be a broad area of low pressure and more than one surface low pressure minimum embedded within it. The NAM is probably correct is holding back the surface low "to some extent" for two reasons. The strong cold high over the NE is not going to like low pressure ramming into it. More likley the surface low will wait and not take off NEward like the GGEM and GFS show. Also the NAM is better at seeing the smaller features. So I would assume it is picking up on something the GFS can't really see and is thus not factoring in. The GFS tends to "smooth" things out. I don't think you can do this in this particular siutation when you have so many small pieces of energy. With that said I think the NAM may be too slow and far south. At this range the ETA tends to be too weak with surface lows. It usually gradually catches up over time and surface lows end up being stronger. So I doubt the eventual track of the surface low will be quite as far south of us as the NAM says. The NAM also shows a coastal low reforming in conjunction with the Monday storm. The GFS shows this as well but not in conjunction with the Sunday night snow. It is a totally different system. The NOGAPS splits the difference. Really this is all semantics. The outcomes on all the models are pretty much the same for actual weather. Both the GFS and ETA give us .25 to .5 liquid as snow even with the big difference in solutions. So to the average viewer it won't matter that much where the storm tracks and how it all plays out. In my opinion the storm will end up being right down the middle of all the solutions. The main surface low will track into the upper Ohio Valley and then slowly transfer it's energy to the coast. There should be a coastal low but I don't envision a big impact from it. The upper-level support is just not there and the flow is rather flat. If anything it should just be an after thought from the main part of this snow maker which is over running. It is possible areas near the coast and city will see the snow end as light rain. By then the dynamics will be almost gone so it is not all that important. The first half of the storm should feature high ratios perhaps to 15 to 1. The end of the storm will be closer to normal ratios... 10 to 1.

What about snow totals? All I will say is that most folks will pick up at least a few inches, possibly as much as 3-6". I have seen over running scenarios where 8" of snow has fallen. I don't remember that set-up but most likely in that case we had an "anchored" High with Gulf moisture running over it. This time we will not have that perfect of a set-up so that high number seems an unlikely scenario. The caveat is if the coastal storm becomes more of a player. The door is open for higher accumulations depending on the details.

BTW, NWS just put up their first advisory:

Special Weather Statement As of 3:02 PM EST on February 18, 2005

Snow is expected to begin Sunday evening with accumulations by daybreak Monday of around 2 inches. During Monday it is expected that the snow will begin to mix with rain which will hold down further accumulations. Despite this... a few more inches appear possible during Monday and Monday night.

Travel on area roadways are expected to become increasingly hazardous from Sunday night Onward.

[LI Phil]

This weekend will be fair and cold with highs near 30 and lows in the teens and 20s. Clouds will increase Sunday afternoon. Snow will develop from west to east Sunday night starting close to midnight west of NYC. Snow will continue all areas through the Monday morning commute. Unfortunately for Keith, I think the snow will mix with and change to sleet then rain around mid morning. Areas far enough away from the coast will have a hard time getting above freezing so a layer of freezing rain is possible on top of the snow. Total accumulations will be 3-5" in a line east to west across the City. Tuesday will be a better day with some sun and normal temperatures. Temps will cool again Wednesday and last through the week. Snow showers are possible Wednesday and/or Thursday. We are watching for the development of a storm around that time. It is too early the tell how significant it will be.

The models are still not all together on this one but the slow trend towards each other is well on its way. The interesting thing is that if you believe the GFS or the NAM you can conclude about the same weather. They handle the features differently but the outcomes are not much different. The GFS continues its idea of a strong main low driving into the Great Lakes. The NAM is weaker with the main low and further south but has trended northward this morning. The GGEM incidently has been the most consistent run for about 5 days now. It keeps showing a similiar scenario to the GFS. I am not suprised the GGEM and GFS are more consolidated with the surface low. Neither one has the capability of seeing the smaller scale features that the NAM and MM5 (Shout out to Stony Brook!) can see. The 12z NAM looks about perfect in what I have been thinking the eventual outcome will be. Yesterday I said that the coastal would probably be and after thought for my area. This is what the 12z NAM says and I buy it. For those of you who have been trashing the GFS don't be so quick to refute it. Although the GFS is still too far north and strong with the surface low it did help me to make my forecast. The NAM is almost always too weak with the 500 mb vorticity and digging of troughs early and then catches up closer to 48 hours. But the NAM is better in situations where you have cold high pressure over New England. Put all this together and you end up with a compromise and a solution like the 12z NAM and 00z EC.

So what does all this mean. The answer is nothing different than it meant yesterday or any day this past week. It means that over running will carry this storm. It means that the coastal low won't mean much to our local area. The GFS gives us .3 to .4 liquid before a change over and the NAM gives us about .5-.6 before a change over. Both models show the precip ending as some light rain but by then the best dynamics are gone. As I suspected the NAM now turns the winds onshore for a time Monday morning. This morning I had the 2-4" band over LI, and NYC. The "2" was just for places on the immediate coast. Once winds turn east or SE it won't take long for places to warm above freezing so although it will be snowing the accums will be held down there. So most of NYC and LI sit right on the line between 3-4" and 4-7". So a responsible call for in my eyes is 3-5" inches.

The next system/s to watch are for Wednesday through Friday. We will just have to see how they come together.

Stay Tuned.

Here's the latest Advisory from our Local NWS:

Special Weather Statement As of 3:28 PM EST on February 19, 2005

Snow is expected to develop Sunday evening... and may become heavy at times late Sunday night and Monday morning. The snow will begin to mix with rain by Monday afternoon. This mix will continue into Monday evening... before tapering off and finally ending after midnight Monday night. Total snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

Travel on area roadways are expected to become increasingly hazardous from Sunday night on. Stay tuned NOAA all hazards radio and other local media for further updates and details.

[Jason234]

The GFS has come into better agreement with the NAM and UKMET finnaly. Therefore a more snowy, colder pattern will be observed. Looks like 4-7 inches and isolated amounts of 9 inches in the foothills of NJ.

[LI Phil]

Winter Weather Statement As of 11:30 am EST on February 20, 2005

... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from tonight through Monday morning...

Snow is expected to develop this evening and last into Monday morning. The snow could be heavy at times between midnight and 7 am Monday. The snow will lighten and mix with or change to rain Monday afternoon. Total snow accumulations are expected to range from 5 to 7 inches before the transition Monday afternoon.

Travel on area roadways is expected to become increasingly hazardous from tonight through Monday.

[Jason234]

you trumped me on snow amounts-looks like you might be correct.

[LI Phil]

you trumped me on snow amounts-looks like you might be correct.
And it's going to start earlier than I thought too. Sometime around 8-9 pm instead of midnight. That extra three hours could add another inch or 2 to my original thoughts...we'll see how much ice and rain show up at the end of the event, which I don't believe will be all that much. I don't think the secondary low is going to be of much consequence anymore.

[Jason234]

usually the secondary system doesn't do much to the snow amounts except cut them down...but the interaction in this case will be meager. It was no surprise though that a secondary low would form because it reached all my criteria-which yes i do have a list. Meterologist like to use big terminlogy such as thermally induced reverse and inverse circulation. Which means that CAD (cold air damming) is taking place in the lower mile of the troposphere east of the mountains. Thus the water off the east coast is warm respectively and when the ghost storm of the circulation or the pressure wave reaches the coast it sparks development. Sometimes fast, sometimes slow depends on the strength of the feature following the ULL-aka a shortwave. Since there is quite a lag between these two features, significant development or bombogensis will not occur in the secondary low. So pretty much you'll have a weak disorganized 1008 low spreading SCA snow and rain showers throughout the tri-state area.

Back to the storm... The models have been saying (the mesoscale ones) that banding features will be present on the onset of precip. b/c of the excellent growth temp (between -12 C and -16 C) and the the amount of lifting. This is not surprising due to the the proximity of the 2850 line to the CWA and the timing of this feature coming into our area. So don't expect a prolonged light snow-but a fast heavy one.

[LI Phil]

Excellent analysis...of course we've been discussing this for almost a week...now it's all coming together as I had suspected. Chat around 8ish?

[Jason234]

okay...but I might be going out to the Cheesecake. J/king i might be going to Jillians and then applebee's...but I doubt it. w/e i'll be there...

[LI Phil]

We are celebrating my mother's birthday today (actual date is tomorrow, but they chickened out when I told them about all the snow we'd be getting)...so I might be a bit hammered when I come on. Maybe I better start drinking heavily NOW!:birth: MOM!

[Jason234]

kewl, are you 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100....ya i can count up to 100!

[LI Phil]

kewl, are you 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100....ya i can count up to 100!
I don't know how old she will be...but she's pretty old. We may have to put her down soon.

Damn, this is some kind bud!!!

[Jason234]

i'll just "yes" that.

[LI Phil]

You want a hit?

[Jason234]

hint*?

[LI Phil]

No, a toke? Pull? Drag? I'm schmoking some killer weed, dude, ya wan't some?

[Jason234]

oh i got you, like narely dude...but i gotta pass it down, some killer swells out there. :cool:

[LI Phil]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Upton Ny
321 Pm Est Sun Feb 20 2005

...significant Snowfall Expected Tonight Into Monday For The Entire Tri-state Area...

.widespread Accumulating Snow Has Been Absent For The Month Of February So Far. But With Arctic High Pressure Over The Area...and A Low Pressure System And Associated Warm Front Approaching From The Mid Mississippi Valley...the Stage Has Been Set For An Accumulating Snowfall To Develop Tonight.

As This System Butts Up Against Arctic Air Over The Northeast...moisture Will Overrun This Wedge Of Cold Air. The Result Will Be An Area Of Snow Developing Southwest Of The Tri-state Region. Snow Will Push Northeastward Into The Area Late This Evening...and Become Heavy At Times Late Tonight And Early Monday Morning. The Snow Will Then Change To A Wintry Mix By Monday Afternoon As The Low Redevelops South Of Long Island...and Then Taper Off Late Monday Night As The Low Heads Out To Sea.

A Winter Storm Warning Is Issued When Severe Winter Weather Is Expected To Occur. Heavy Snow And Or Ice Are Forecast To Accumulate In The Affected Areas...causing Hazardous Driving Conditions. Those With Travel Plans In The Warning Area Should Choose An Alternate Route...or Should Use Extreme Caution If Travel Is Unavoidable.

Travel On Area Roadways Is Expected To Become Increasingly Hazardous From Tonight Through Monday.

Conditions Can Deteriorate Rapidly In Winter Weather Situations...Slow Down And Allow Extra Time When Traveling. Practice Your Winter Safety Rules...keep An Extra Flashlight...food And Water In Your Car In Case Of Emergency.

Stay Tuned To Noaa All Hazards Radio Or Visit Our Web Site At Weather.gov/okx For Further Details Or Updates.

[Jason234]

Trajectory of precip. shield seems to be on target with expected arrival time, if not earlier. The storm is strenghtening very fast and taking the southward track as proggred. The actual warm front is somewhere in NC...surface ob's indicating snow as does visual radar. Meaning that we're looking good for a winter storm. Temperatures are dropping off somewhat as the afternoon progresses, as cold advection aid's in this ahead of the overunning precip. Expect the heaviest snow to fall somewhere in the dawn hours between 1 Am to 4 Am and especially rush hour. The MM5 indicates a rather large heavy band coming through the area sometime around 6Z, will have to watch for that as it would add to snow amounts somewhat. 12Z run of the GFS indicating a slightly stronger secondary low which would jivve for a colder airmass behind the storm, which would hold precip as snow for longer time period...will have to follow to see if it's a trend or not.

AM Roberts **

[LI Phil]

Just woke up...and am going back to schleep...snowing now...lots of white powder...ummmm....that should be enough to wake me up....but will eschew those temptations...6 inches are possible, but it appears as though only 4 are present attm...when did pro bowling become popular?...they use steroids, fer sher...last of the snow here:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=klga&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=MetroRadarLoop&prodnav=none

[Jason234]

4 inches seems to be the concensus amongst surface ob's throughout the area. Let's get a look at the temperatures... UKMET, EC, NAM, GFS indicate a large area of arctic high pressure coming down and manifesting on the east coast. This large area of rather frigid air will provide many with a prolonged period of 5-10 below normal air for one week. So if you plan on going to the beach or taking your dog for a walk this week-might want to reconsider at least in the Northeast.

Now on to precip. Looks like the next precip. is set for Tues night into Wednesday morning when the arctic front crosses over. Since models worst variable is in precip., I don't want to take a gander about how much we could get. Either way it would start out as snow Tues Night change to rain, and then back to snow as the pattern is not progressive. And that is the thing about not progressive patterns, if an area of low pressure get's locked off the coast with an Arctic high in place-we have a serious problem on our hands. Which seems to be the long range idea at this time. Now that the NAO, SOI, and AO are going absurdly negative you have to think what could possibly happen. Some analogs would be 1983 and 1993...Also let's not forget that not progressive patterns are common during this time period in winters. The point is that we could have a very significant storm on our hands by the weekend.

[LI Phil]

Winter Weather Statement As of 9:24 am EST on February 21, 2005

... Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled...

Only some spotty light rain... drizzle or light snow is expected into the afternoon. Since the accumulating snow have ended... the Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled.

[Jason234]

This first chance of snow exists tonite...due to the proximity to the remnants of what was a rather large severe weather for this time of year. If one looks at the 500 mb vort. max charts, they notice that we are under the area vort., but since the system ran on shearing-and that shear tendency is not present over Long Island we will not end up with much. You cannot rule out though some sca snow showers becoming ehanced on the east end of the island due to the moisture coming off the ocean . I am however skeptical about accum. So for now just don't worry about much of anything. A more northerly track of the shearing will result in a higher chance of precip.

I will update this thread later today...after this weather event dicussion has expired.

[LI Phil]

Today wll be a dry and milder day with highs near 40. Later today a cold front will approach with snow flurries and snow showers mostly this evening. Colder air will gradually filter in through tomorrow with breezy NW winds. The next system will form near the Gulf states with an extension north into the Ohio valley. Clouds will increase thursday with cold high temps near 32. Thursday night into Friday morning a storm will develop along the NC coast and head east-northeast. At this time it appears the main part of this storm will miss our area to the south. With that said we should be on the northern fringe of the snow so some light snow or snow showers appear likely especially just to our south. The weekend will be cold and dry. The next storm should effect us with snow or rain Monday.

First let's talk about the Thursday/Friday system. The GGEM and 06z NAM bring the snow shield as far north as the NYC/LI area. I haven't looked that closely at the other models. The GFS like usual is way SE but I'm sure it will trend north with time. With that said this storm has the appearance of of a classic Mid-Atlantic storm. For our area it has "northern fringe" written all over it. The short-wave and vorticity embedded in this system dropping out of Canada is impressive to say the least. The issue is how quickly does the trough tilt from positive to neutral? Also does the trough scoop up some southern stream short-wave energy in the process? Just watch... the NAM will start trending towards a more pronounced tilting of the trough wrapping some sheared southern stream energy in. The GFS will only slowly come around to the better NAM solution. I say "better" because even the NAM is not perfect. Here's is what is slightly wrong with the NAM. You will notice it has 2 coastal lows. This could be a logical solution but it kicks number one out to sea too quickly because of latent heat release. This means the heat generated by the precip shield in the SE, ahead of the main trough way west, will create ample pressure falls to drive the 1st coastal offshore. While I see this as a possibility I think this is overdone. In my opinion the 1st coastal will wait for the powerful short-wave to the west. The only issue with my scenario is that the short-wave trough remains flat for a while which would lean in favor of a more progressive solution. In my scenario the main coastal will be stronger and remain closer to the coast for longer. It will probably track a little further north than the 06z NAM indicates. That means yes I think that even the NAM will continue to trend north. What does that mean for real weather in our area? I think it will be a very close call but in the end no cigar on this one. In other words we should get into the northern extent of the snow shield mostly because of the short-wave PVA. The mositure associated with the coastal will probably not get here. If we are to see accumulation the best shot is just south of LI. There should be some very impressive totals in the Delmarva, VA, perhaps northern NC and may be southern NJ. I would not be surpirsed if someone picks up a foot down there. My gut tells me this system just misses us... but it will be closer than you might think. This energy diving south from Canada is very strong it would not take much to get this trough to dig more and this storm to come north. Also since this energy is still up in a data sparce environment the initial conditions could be slightly off. So stay tuned! This could be a nail bitter.

Next is the Monday/Tuesday system. All the models have it in one form or another. This should be a very interesting one to predict. A very big piece of the polar vortex will drop south from Canada late this weekend and early next week into the northern Plain states. This will not be our storm but will help to pull our storm north. Our storm will originate from a strong short-wave embedded in the southern stream. This system will track through the SE and then get pulled up the coast by the "tug" the the upper-level storm forming in the upper Mid-west. These systems are always tough calls because there tends to be a lack of true phasing between streams. Rather the weaker southern stream energy gets absorbed (to an extent) by the northern stream system. In this case the "weak" southern stream energy will not be weak at all... just weak compared to the massive PV dropping south from Canada. So it is likely that the southern stream system will generate its own powerful coastal low. Here's the issue... There will not be that much cold air over the NE. The temps will be mariginal. The cold air will be stale. There will be just enough cold air in place to make this a close call. Another issue is if the northern stream system is too strong it will pull the SE system too close to the coast. If the winds go SE or east in a system like this kiss the snow goodbye. There is just not enough cold air in place to fend off the marine air. So to sum this one up it will be close. To put it into perspective the 7 day 00z EC has the 850 mb 0C line right over the heart of NYC. As time goes on we will have a better idea of just how much cold air will be in place. This is one aspect of modeling that is not very good this far out. I do suspect that some more cold air will be hanging around. But that won't matter much with the wrong track and/or ESE wind.

Beyond that the pattern looks to stay interesting and cold-ish into March so stay tuned. This will be a bumpy two weeks.

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement As of 4:20 am EST on February 23, 2005

As low pressure develops well south of Long Island late Thursday and
Thursday night... it will likely spread accumulating snowfall into the
region. The track of the low is somewhat uncertain at this time... but
it should track far enough north to provide the local area with a
steady snowfall... starting late Thursday afternoon or evening and
lasting through Thursday night. It is too early to speculate on exact
accumulations... but the area stands a good chance at seeing a
plowable snow Thursday night... especially along the coast. The system
will be a quick mover... so most if not all of the snow should end by
early Friday morning.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

[LI Phil]

It will be dry and breezy today and tonight. Tomorrow will be cold with increasing clouds. Snow will develop Tomorrow afternoon and continue into Friday early am. It will probably end by the rush hour. Winds will be gusty during the storm. Several inches of snow is likely in all areas with more over southern and easten sections. The weekend will be drier and cold. There will be the chance of some flurries or snow showers for a time. The next big storm will reach us early next week with snow and/or rain. Next week will turn very cold. The cold and stormy pattern will stick around for a while.

Regarding tomorrow... I am not suprised by the northward progress of the system... I am surprised by how far north the NAM has trended this morning. Yesterday it looked as though the coastal would push further east and our snow would come from the powerful energy diving south from Canada. Today it looks as though this will become all "one elongated" system. I thought the models were driving the initail surface wave out to sea too quickly and not waiting for the energy from the upper-level low. This morning's NAM has solved this problem big time and in doing so it is pushing the storm close enough for a big hit. Now if you look at the surface low on the NAM one might conclude that it is too far east to generate the precip totals it is showing. Given the NAM's set-up I do think that the NAM might be too bullish with precip totals in some places. Here's why the surface low can be so far east and still generate such extensive precip totals. The upper level low is lagging way west. If you look at the 850 mb low and where the thermal contrast zone is you will see it is to the NW of the surface low. This is the cloud level and this is where the heaviest snow falls... just north of the 850 mb low. That means the highest totals from this storm will be in Central and Southern New Jersey and LI. Amounts will gradually tail down as you head north. I say gradually because again the upper-level support will be providing lift way north so that significant snows happen well away from the surface low center. Since the NAM has taken the major step of now making this system "one" system rather than a separate upper-level and surface low who's to say the surface low can't trend even further NW. It CAN so be watching for this possibility. If this happens the whole zone of precip will shift even further NW. Then the NAM precip totals way north of us will work out just fine.

One more note... the issue on this storm was never the strength of the upper-level low. This a a very impressive piece of energy diving south. The issue was given the blocking over Canada could this upper-level short-wave turn nuetral fast enough to draw the surface low up the coast. Well once again the short-wave and associated dynamics were able to pump up the front side of the trough (ridging to the SE of the trough) enough to slow it down a little and allow for a more amplified solution. Given all of the supressed model solutions it didn't seem possible earlier this week that this short-wave could over come being such an under dog on the models. But in hind sight this short-wave is classic in accomplishing a feat like this. Kudos to the NAM in hinting at this solution days ago.

While I could of course be wrong (I usually am), I'd figure Long Island sees a good 5-7" from this, with the twin forks seeing up to 10". Tomorrow I may adjust these figures with the new runs.

The next system is very complicated. A huge piece of energy will dig south from Canada into the Mid west and Great Lakes. At the same time a potent short-wave in the southern stream will be generating a Gulf and then coastal surface low. How these two features interact with each other will determine the eventual outcome. Most will depend on exactly how the Canadian energy evolves (it is essentially the reformation of the polar vortex) and how it tugs on the coastal system. There will be enough cold air in place for snow "IF" the low takes a good track. But the cold air will not be overwhelming by any means. The wrong surface low track would mean rain. The evolution of the 2 systems will be extremely complicated. These systems that involve a developing polar vortex are not well forecast by models or forecasters. We just don't see this type of thing very often. So stay tuned. This could teach us all a lesson about weather forecasting.

Things stay interesting for a while in March. This is by far the most interesting weather of the winter. The long range predictions for the -NAO and cold pattern have finally evolved. It has taken a long time and could be worth the wait for fans of snow and cold.

[Jason234]

After reviewing the models-especially the NAM I have concluded that a winter storm watch is well put forth. The 0Z run had less precip. and now the 6Z and 12Z runs have much more precip. I will put down some intial guidance when the 18Z runs' come-but I don't think much will change. You'll probably see the heaviest snows' along the -8C isotherm at 850, because that is were the ideal snow growth conditions are. Raitos will be high as the temperatures are rather cold. The GFS takes a further south and more eastward track. My faith in the GFS at this short range of time is very low, and that is why I am turning toward the NAM. The reason for the variance lives in the deeper vortex that was carved out by the shortwave yesterday and the day before...I will review this later.

[Jason234]

The 18Z run's are in...I am very confident on forecasting a plowable amount of snow for this event. All the short-range forecasting models are showing precip. to fall in the form of snow, so p-type is not an issue. The models vary from .25" accum. precip. to about .75-1 inches. The outliers are the GFS and the NAM. The CMC, NOGAPS, are in between for now...but they still show that we receive a plowable amount of snow (greater then 5 inches). The best dynamics for snow will be consequentially over Long Island, with the right rear quad of the jet coming over top. Also the -8 C isotherm at 850mb will be very close to the Island and it will result in ideal snow growth conditions. The thing that stills concerns me is the amount of handoff between the southern and northern branch in terms of moisture but based on what the models are showing it's seems like it will occur. Recent satellite observations indicate a baroclinic leaf is developing and a large area of high to mid level cloud deck is developing. Also to note the cloud deck extends fairly far north and some snow is starting to break out in the frontologentic lifting zone...which wasn't really seen on any model run's. This leads me to believe that a average of 7 inches will fall along the island with the east end receiving the most...so 6-8 inches is my call. Due to the cold nature of the system expect it to be fast and furious, with a prolonged period of snowfall rates above 1 inch per hour. Unlike the last storm that affected the region-ratio's will be higher 12:1. I will eventually update this thread tomorrow when the time comes necessary.

[LI Phil]

Winter Weather Statement As of 3:41 am EST on February 24, 2005

... The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Winter Storm
Warning that is in effect for late this afternoon through tonight...

Low pressure will develop near Cape Hatteras North Carolina today and
move quickly northeastward tonight. Snow will spread across the
region from southwest to northeast by mid to late afternoon and
become heavy at times this evening until shortly after midnight.
Conditions will likely deteriorate rapidly as the evening rush hour
progresses today. The snow will then taper off during the wee hours
of the morning before ending around sunrise Friday.

Storm total snow accumulations by the time all is said and done early
Friday morning will range from 4 to 8 inches. In addition... winds
will increase tonight and perhaps gust to around 25 mph. This will
cause wind chill values to drop into the single digits and teens
tonight. The snow will be fluffy in nature... so some blowing and
drifting is likely as well.

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is
expected to occur. Heavy snow and or ice are forecast to accumulate
in the affected areas causing hazardous driving conditions. Those
with travel plans in the warning area are advised to choose an
alternate Route... or should use extreme caution if travel is
unavoidable.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations...
slow down and allow extra time when traveling. Practice your winter
safety rules... keep an extra flashlight... food and water in your car
in case of emergency.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards radio or visit our web site at
weather.Gov/okx for further details or updates.

[LI Phil]

Winter Weather Statement As of 10:47 am EST on February 24, 2005

... Winter Storm Warning in effect for this afternoon through
tonight...

Low pressure will develop near Cape Hatteras North Carolina this
afternoon and move quickly northeastward tonight. Snow will spread
across the region from southwest to northeast by mid to late
afternoon and become heavy at times this evening until shortly after
midnight. Conditions will likely deteriorate rapidly as the evening
rush hour progresses today. The snow will then taper off during the
wee hours of the morning before ending around sunrise Friday.

Storm total snow accumulations by the time all is said and done early
Friday morning will range from 4 to 8 inches. In addition... winds
will increase tonight and perhaps gust to around 25 mph. This will
cause wind chill values to drop into the single digits and teens
tonight. The snow will be fluffy in nature... so some blowing and
drifting is likely as well.

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is
expected to occur. Heavy snow and or ice are forecast to accumulate
in the affected areas causing hazardous driving conditions. Those
with travel plans in the warning area are advised to choose an
alternate Route... or should use extreme caution if travel is
unavoidable.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations...
slow down and allow extra time when traveling. Practice your winter
safety rules... keep an extra flashlight... food and water in your car
in case of emergency.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards radio or visit our web site at
weather.Gov/okx for further details or updates.

[LI Phil]

Here's the latest Warning from NWS...

Winter Weather Statement As of 3:40 PM EST on February 24, 2005

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until around daybreak
Friday...

Snow will become increasingly widespread and by evening locally
heavy at times. Accumulations during the evening rush hour should be
an inch or two with conditions rapidly deteriorating. The snow
will continue through the bulk of tonight... ending before sunrise
Friday.

Total snow accumulations by daybreak Friday should range between 4
and 7 inches. In addition... winds will increase tonight and perhaps
gust to around 25 mph. This will cause wind chill values to drop
into the single digits and teens later tonight. The winds would also
cause some blowing and drifting of the snow.

Remember... a Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter
weather is expected to occur. Heavy snow and or ice are forecast to
accumulate in the affected areas causing hazardous driving
conditions. Those with travel plans in the warning area are advised
to use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. Conditions can
deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations... so slow down and
allow extra time when traveling.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards radio or visit our web site at
weather.Gov/okx for further details or updates.

[Jason234]

Yes it is snowing hard...and based on recent radar echo's it will continue. The best snow ehancement is overhead now and will continue for about 2 more hours...the coldest area's will have the most snow...so as you travel further out east more snow will fall as a result of higher ratio's and such. There is about 3 inches already on my deck at home...so we're looking good for accum...no other updates attm.

[LI Phil]

The weekend looks mostly dry and cold. There will be some clouds and flurries Saturday along with a weak disturbance. Sunday should feature sunshine and chilly temps in the 30s. Monday clouds will thicken as a powerful coastal low takes shape. Snow will develop and possibly change to rain especially along the coast. It will be very windy with some coastal flooding and beach erosion possible. The storm will slowly pull away as snow showers Tuesday. Colder air will filter back south and establish itself for the rest of the week.

Today' storm is headed out into the Atlantic after dumping between 4-9 inches of snow around the area. It was forecast very well by most. The model winner was once again the NAM. It has been on fire this season. But most of you better hope it is not still on fire because the historic snow storm that some thought was/is coming will be out the door if the NAM is right.

Before I begin laying out the information let me say the one thing that stands out in my mind about this next system, over and above anything else is the Mid West upper level trough. Regardless of "exactly" where it ends up it will be VERY strong and very far west. If I had nothing to look at but that trof and its position I would be calling for a howling wind driven rain. With out putting any further thought into this situation, my gut reaction a few days ago about this system and my gut reaction today is the same. This is no more or less than what my instinct tells me from loving the weather since the age of three or even younger. But a forecaster can not only rely on instinct. So lets lay out the information now.

The most interesting developments today are last night's GGEM and ECMWF going back to a major snow storm solution with a more offshore track. I did not expect such a shift from the models. The usually supressed GFS is further west than both of these. The NAM is in line more or less with the GFS. So the battle line is drawn. It is always easier when the best models... the NAM and ECMWF are in line with each other. The 12z NAM and 12z GFS are a little further east than last night's runs so the question is are they trending slowly towards a further east solution? We will see today. Enough on the models for now.
------------------
EDIT: Having looked more closely at the NAM... the placement of the surface low in the 54-66 hour panels is too far west in relation to the 500 mb pattern. Thus the NAM is too far west with the surface low. Thus you need to shift that main surface low track 50-100 miles east. This has consequences down the road. The NAM develops two low pressure centers. The SC/NC low that develop at 66-72 hours is more correct.

Also I have just looked at the 12z UKMET. It's placement of the surface low is garbage over Florida. Looking at the 500 mb leads me to beleive that the surface low should be around Georgia. Thus the eventual outcome should be west of the 12z UKMET position much closer to the coast.

The 12z GGEM is not emphatic enough with the southern stream energy... it is too sheared. That leads to the surface low forming off Florida as well. This is too far east. The GGEM does not see the specifics of the southern stream energy. Just like the UKMET this model needs to be shifted closer to the coast.

Thus the solution should lie right near the middle of the 12z NAM, 12z GGEM and 12z UKMET. A coastal hugger.
------------------------
Let's talk about the pattern.The storm that just left our area will head up to Canada and act as a temporary block. You often here about blocking to our north and the -NAO. On average a -NAO means storms slow down and stay south and east of us. But let me remind you and don't ever forget this... every situation in weather yields a different outcome. There are no hard and fast rules. Unfortunately in weather one plus one doesn't always equal 2. My point is that I see all these arguments about blocking. True blocking helps... but the orientation of, location of, size of, timing of, etc... all effect the real weather outcome. So what... you have blocking? Big deal. What if that blocking is 100 miles northwest of the perfect spot. That would mean that your storm will come 100 miles NW. When you are 3-4 days out that slight shift in the orientation, size, location of blocking will make all the difference in the world for "ACTUAL WEATHER". And that is what really matters to my viewers.

So the real key here is where does that upper-level low set up. Does it cut off quickly? If so it will establish itself further west and draw the Gulf low N/NW like a magnet. Does the upper-level low remain open and tilted slightly positive? If so the coastal moves NE for a longer period of time. That would bring big snows. The arguement for a trough that can't quite tilt negative is one that includes the blocking up in Canada (damn Canadians). That blocking would not allow the new Midwest trough to pivot around that quickly. Let's take a lesson from yesterday's storm. A developing trough CAN overwhelm a blocking closed low to our north. Days ago the models showed yesterday's system way south. The NAM caught onto the finer features of the energy with in the trough (that the other models could not) and correctly predicted the shift northward. The trough was in fact able to go nuetral and give us significant snow. No two situations are exactly alike but it is the Midwest trough which will make or break this next system.

One more thing worth mentioning is the latent heat release with the southern stream storm. On one hand you might argue that the latent heat release will build heights along the SE coast. The outcome would be for a more inland solution. But at the same time that latent heat release is often greatest where the best contrast zone is... along the coast. So that would argue for a low forming in the water rather than inland in the SE. This time though that area of greatest latent heat release may well be inland.

Putting all this together... this is one VERY tough forecast. But in the end I have to side with what I feel. The upper-level low in the Midwest will overwhelm all else. So the surface low will be a real coastal hugger. It might jump east once it gets into the central Mid-Atlantic but some damage will be done along my coastal areas. With not much cold air in place, no real high pressure, and a prolonged east wind the coast will possibly go to rain for a time. The tough call for me is where the snow/rain line sets up. It could be over, just NW of Long Island or a 100 miles NW of LI. That I don't know. This is what I think. Everyone should start as snow. The immediate coast should go to rain. Inland areas will be a very close call. It will all depend on the track. Areas just to the west of the surface and 850 mb lows will get socked with over a foot of snow easily. This could very well turn out to be a Blizzard for the Catskills, Poconos, Apps, Central NY and PA. The exact track of the low will determine whether we all get into the backlash of the now "cut off" low to our north. I do think snow showers will get in here... I don't know if accumulating snow will occur. My concern is that the coastal gets to a certain latitude and because of the blocking starts to transfer eastward into the Atlantic. You will notice some model solutions doing this. This is common in storms where you have significant blocking to the north. In this case you end up snow to rain and back to snow. This is a good possibility. So especially west of the Island be on the look out for major snows. The Island will be close. The immediate coastal zones will probably see some rain. Along the coast on Monday we will have to watch for coastal flooding. Winds will be howling along with this system.

One note that I will add is that a true model consensus and model trends seem to lean east of the coastal hug. The 00z GGEM, 12z GGEM, 00z EC, NOGAPS all show a more eastward and major snowfall solution. The NAM and GFS are hinting at a trend east. This all bodes well for more snow and less rain.

BTW... I noticed this on several forums. Folks are talking about how odd the models are for showing 2 or three low pressure centers. When they show that there is a reason. Why? Because one low is a reflection of greatest latent heat release due to condesation in convection (in the deep south). The other low is due to the reflection of the southern stream 500 mb low. And the Ohio Valley low is due to the reflection of the Midwest 500 mb trough. The result is an elongated solution from the Ohio Valley to the SC coast with three distinct surface lows. Which one is correct? Well I revert to the famous saying that if you are seeing three, aim for the one in the middle. The real surface low will be the one that forms as a reflection of the southern stream 500 mb low. So track of the main player surface low will be just east of the southern stream 500mb energy.


The 12z ECMWF will be out soon. The 18z ETA will also be of much help to see if the eastward jog will be a trend or not. Stay tuned... I am certainly not ready to throw in the towel for anyone yet. Just a 100 mile shift of the ETA and everyone is back in the game.

[Jason234]

Don't have time to post a forecast attm, will do one tomorrow. I will say this expect heavy precip!

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement As of 4:53 am EST on February 26, 2005

... A significant coastal storm will affect the region Monday and
Monday night...

Low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday... then move up the East Coast on Monday and Monday night as it
picks up Gulf and Atlantic moisture and quickly intensifies.

Precipitation will likely begin as snow Monday morning... but then
there is some uncertainty regarding precipitation type later Monday
into Monday night. If the low takes a track right along the coast or
just inland... the precipitation would change to rain along the coast
and be a wintry mix inland. The resulting heavy rains in combination
with melting snow could cause urban and small stream flooding
problems. At this time... it looks as though coastal areas will see a
mainly rain event as the low tracks very close to the coast.
Inland... well north and west of New York City could see an all snow
event with heavy accumulations.

Winds will also increase as the storm approaches. The potential
exists for wind gusts up to or even exceeding 50 mph at the coast
Monday afternoon and evening. These winds in
combination with high astronomical tides may cause coastal flooding
and beach erosion. The most prone area for coastal flooding at this
time looks to be western Long Island Sound.

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor the situation
through weekend. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local
media for further details or updates.

[Jason234]

I have a strong inkling to believe this storm is a coastal storm-the southern branch seems much stronger then the northern branch, that is why I'm leaning toward the GFS solution-placing more energy in the coastal low. The JMA, the NOGAPS, the GFS, and EC seem to be on my boat. The EC has an intersting solution, with a negative 5.9 NAO and a strong 50/50 block it would be corrected to pull the storm out further to sea then pull it in. Storms like this love to phase in Maine so why will this be any different? It won't...which leads me to believe a faster northern branch which is conducive to a slower phasing of the two streams. Allowing the primary center to be offshore. The reason why this will not be a large snow event for the coastal plain is because the lack of hipres over NE and thus a bereft of CAD. The strong negative tilt that has been shown on the northern branch feature also makes this different from your charateristic snow events with the shortwave ehancing snow snowher's along the coast. Think of this as more of a Fujiwhara-with the two storms rotating around each other the stronger one being the biggest puller. So snow accum. in the big cities will be much less then about 60 miles away from the coast. Okay? Nevertheless at the coast significant beach erosion, wind damage, and severe thunderstorms can be expected. This will all be taking place but what degree? That depends on the track of the low-but you have already heard my .02 cents on this topic. Let's see how it pans out!

[Jason234]

It's snowing again at my house...

[LI Phil]

It's snowing again at my house...
It's snowing here too...don't jack the weather threads...

[Jeffery McElroy]

It fascinates me how widespread something like this is. I, on the complete opposite end of the scale, will be greatly affected by this systems track as well.

[LI Phil]

Atfer a cold and quiet weekend things wil turn ugly Monday as a powerful coastal storm heads in. Monday will start cloudy. Snow will move in as early as the morning from the City southward and progress northward. Along the coast that snow will likely mix with and turn to rain. Inland snow or a mix of snow and sleet will continue into Monday night. In these inland areas significant accumulation is possible. In between, along the I-95 corridor, the storm will start out as snow as well. It is in this area that the forecast is toughest. The snow/mix/rain line will set-up right near here. As the storm moves out everyone wil change back to snow showers later Monday night and Tuesday. A shift in the track of this storm will make a huge difference in the weather. Either way expect gusty winds Monday into Monday night. Some coastal flooding is possible as well. One note... a shift in the track of this storm by 50 miles could make the difference between getting a foot of snow or a wind-driven rain.

It could not be any closer. Days ago I wrote that this would be a nail-biter. Now I realize how true this is turing out to be. The idea that I have been presenting that the low would hug the coast seems to be coming to pass. But what does this mean? Like I said... the devil is in the details. And the details of a coastal hugger can vary big time depending on the tightness of the low pressure along the coast. For you weather enthusiats here is an important lesson about wind and the isobars. At the surface wind does NOT follow the isobars. The greater the pressure contrast the more the wind turns into low pressure. That is called cross-isobaric flow. Now for the tough stuff... Coriolis turns wind to the right of motion in the Northern Hemisphere. Acting directly against that force in the exact opposite direction is the pressure gradient force. When they are equal the flow is exactly parallel to the isobars. Now coriolis is greater as the winds get stronger, and coriolis is weaker when the winds are lighter. Now it will all come together. At the surface friction slows the winds down and coriolis weakens. Now the pressure gradient force dominates over coriolis and the forces are no longer in balance. The pressure gradient is then directed from high pressure into low pressure. So at the surface when you have an intense system pressure falls in the center of surface low pressure suck the air in. The result is a wind that crosses the isobars. So when the isobars say "east wind" in an intense low, you should be saying "NE wind".

So with that lesson in mind a coastal hugger is not a lock for rain. It is much more complicated than that. I depends on how deep and distinct the coastal low is. It depends on the orientation of the coastal low in relation to the ohio valley surface reflection. The wind direction will be "everything" in this storm along the coast and in the city.

Let's talk about models. Last night's GGEM, EC, UKMET all shifted westward and in a great position for major snow. The 12z NAM has continued the 06z NAM shift eastward and now shows a track from Inland NC/SC to PHL to Newburgh NY. The 12z NAM is still a rain track in I-95 but the trend is what matters. This is a big shift eastward. But why the shift eastward? Because it finally got the beginning right along the Gulf coast. Originally it was trying to develop the surface low too far N and W in Louisianna. This poses a huge problem because the old NAM was then able to sneak the low west of the Appalachians. That would be game over. But now it is correctly recognizing that the initial surface low will be shifted further east along the Gulf Coast due to the latent heat release. That heat draws surface low pressure to it. Now this is the KEY... since the surface low starts out east of the Apps it can now take that track through the coastal plain and hug the coast. It would be very difficult for the low to now be dragged west of the Apps. At this point each model run of each model should converge. The EC/GGEM/UKMET should trend slightly west. The NAM should trend another notch east. The result is that exact coastal hugging solution. At some point the surface low should begin to stretch east. Notice that since the NAM is connecting the two lows at 66 hours it is shutting of the precip quickly by dry slotting us. The GFS shows more of a consolidated low as does the 06z MM5 so that we end up on the backside of the low. That would extend our precip a while longer. These "details" will make or break a lot of us and at this point they are still out of reach.

So at this point in time areas west of Interstate 287 are becoming more likely for major snows including NW NJ, the Poconos, the Catskills and a good portion of the Hudson Valley. Coastal NJ and to a lesser degree coastal LI will see a mix and a probable change to rain. Points in between should see accumulating snow and then??? the devil will be in the details for you.

One thing that needs to be mentioned... there will be a warm punch of air at 700mb. So snow growth will not be that great up there. At the surface along the coast and in the City temperatures will likely be above freezing for some of the event. Even if somehow the precip hangs on as snow, it will be a wet snow and that will hold down accumulations. I have a theory that when 700mb temperatures are borderline you are more likely to see ice pellets than snow. It doesn't seem to follow that well from what is known of precip. formation but it is just something I have noticed. The theory is that super-cooled water droplets that exists below freezing in clouds are more likely to latch onto a growing snowflake then to form into ice pellets. But since I don't live in the clouds I am unsure.

[Jeffery McElroy]

But since I don't live in the clouds I am unsure.

Words to live by! :)
Fascinating monologue, Phil. I eagerly anticipate tonight and whatever it may bring.

[LI Phil]

But since I don't live in the clouds I am unsure.

Words to live by! :)
Fascinating monologue, Phil. I eagerly anticipate tonight and whatever it may bring.
Thank you Jeffery, but it is tomorrow night of which I speak. Fascinating special on TWC right now about wind and air...

[Jeffery McElroy]

but it is tomorrow night of which I speak

From a certian point of view. This system will affect me in a very different way tonight.

[Jason234]

Atfer a cold and quiet weekend things wil turn ugly Monday as a powerful coastal storm heads in. Monday will start cloudy. Snow will move in as early as the morning from the City southward and progress northward. Along the coast that snow will likely mix with and turn to rain. Inland snow or a mix of snow and sleet will continue into Monday night. In these inland areas significant accumulation is possible. In between, along the I-95 corridor, the storm will start out as snow as well. It is in this area that the forecast is toughest. The snow/mix/rain line will set-up right near here. As the storm moves out everyone wil change back to snow showers later Monday night and Tuesday. A shift in the track of this storm will make a huge difference in the weather. Either way expect gusty winds Monday into Monday night. Some coastal flooding is possible as well. One note... a shift in the track of this storm by 50 miles could make the difference between getting a foot of snow or a wind-driven rain.

It could not be any closer. Days ago I wrote that this would be a nail-biter. Now I realize how true this is turing out to be. The idea that I have been presenting that the low would hug the coast seems to be coming to pass. But what does this mean? Like I said... the devil is in the details. And the details of a coastal hugger can vary big time depending on the tightness of the low pressure along the coast. For you weather enthusiats here is an important lesson about wind and the isobars. At the surface wind does NOT follow the isobars. The greater the pressure contrast the more the wind turns into low pressure. That is called cross-isobaric flow. Now for the tough stuff... Coriolis turns wind to the right of motion in the Northern Hemisphere. Acting directly against that force in the exact opposite direction is the pressure gradient force. When they are equal the flow is exactly parallel to the isobars. Now coriolis is greater as the winds get stronger, and coriolis is weaker when the winds are lighter. Now it will all come together. At the surface friction slows the winds down and coriolis weakens. Now the pressure gradient force dominates over coriolis and the forces are no longer in balance. The pressure gradient is then directed from high pressure into low pressure. So at the surface when you have an intense system pressure falls in the center of surface low pressure suck the air in. The result is a wind that crosses the isobars. So when the isobars say "east wind" in an intense low, you should be saying "NE wind".

So with that lesson in mind a coastal hugger is not a lock for rain. It is much more complicated than that. I depends on how deep and distinct the coastal low is. It depends on the orientation of the coastal low in relation to the ohio valley surface reflection. The wind direction will be "everything" in this storm along the coast and in the city.

Let's talk about models. Last night's GGEM, EC, UKMET all shifted westward and in a great position for major snow. The 12z NAM has continued the 06z NAM shift eastward and now shows a track from Inland NC/SC to PHL to Newburgh NY. The 12z NAM is still a rain track in I-95 but the trend is what matters. This is a big shift eastward. But why the shift eastward? Because it finally got the beginning right along the Gulf coast. Originally it was trying to develop the surface low too far N and W in Louisianna. This poses a huge problem because the old NAM was then able to sneak the low west of the Appalachians. That would be game over. But now it is correctly recognizing that the initial surface low will be shifted further east along the Gulf Coast due to the latent heat release. That heat draws surface low pressure to it. Now this is the KEY... since the surface low starts out east of the Apps it can now take that track through the coastal plain and hug the coast. It would be very difficult for the low to now be dragged west of the Apps. At this point each model run of each model should converge. The EC/GGEM/UKMET should trend slightly west. The NAM should trend another notch east. The result is that exact coastal hugging solution. At some point the surface low should begin to stretch east. Notice that since the NAM is connecting the two lows at 66 hours it is shutting of the precip quickly by dry slotting us. The GFS shows more of a consolidated low as does the 06z MM5 so that we end up on the backside of the low. That would extend our precip a while longer. These "details" will make or break a lot of us and at this point they are still out of reach.

So at this point in time areas west of Interstate 287 are becoming more likely for major snows including NW NJ, the Poconos, the Catskills and a good portion of the Hudson Valley. Coastal NJ and to a lesser degree coastal LI will see a mix and a probable change to rain. Points in between should see accumulating snow and then??? the devil will be in the details for you.

One thing that needs to be mentioned... there will be a warm punch of air at 700mb. So snow growth will not be that great up there. At the surface along the coast and in the City temperatures will likely be above freezing for some of the event. Even if somehow the precip hangs on as snow, it will be a wet snow and that will hold down accumulations. I have a theory that when 700mb temperatures are borderline you are more likely to see ice pellets than snow. It doesn't seem to follow that well from what is known of precip. formation but it is just something I have noticed. The theory is that super-cooled water droplets that exists below freezing in clouds are more likely to latch onto a growing snowflake then to form into ice pellets. But since I don't live in the clouds I am unsure.


"One note... a shift in the track of this storm by 50 miles could make the difference between getting a foot of snow or a wind-driven rain."

No LI phil that is very unlikely because the confluence (where the airstreams run parallel to each other) is in the Maritimes. For a good snow storm it has to be in Quebec...So even if the 850 mb temperature is 0C it will still rain because much too much e se advection.

[LI Phil]

.long Term (monday Through Friday)...12z Gfs And 00z Ecmwf Look Very Similar Regarding Evolution Of Potent Quick-hitting Coastal Storm For Late Monday And Monday Night...but There Is Still Some Spread Among Other Models...with The 12z Ecmwf Now Taking A More Offshore Track With The Primary Low And The 12z Nam Still More Of An Inland Runner. Have Taken A Middle Of The Road Approach Much Like Yesterday And Gone With A Primarily 12z Gfs/00z Ecmwf Solution...but Several Hours Slower. Temps Aloft Will Be Cold Enough For Snow At All Levels...but Boundary Layer Temps Start Off Aoa Freezing Monday Afternoon Before Onset Of Precip. Mav Temps/dewpoint Depressions At That Time Have Me Concerned Temps Could Wet-bulb Down To Freezing Throughout The Area Yielding A Burst Of Snow At The Onset....but Think Strong Easterly Flow Off The Ocean Will Eventually Win Out And Change P-type To All Rain In Long Island Through Monday Evening. Will Be A Very Close Call Across Nyc/northeast/nj/coastal Connecticut...will Go With A Rain/snow Mix There. Inland Sections Could See Significant Accumulating Snow On The Order Of 6-12 Inches...winter Storm Watches Could Be Issued Overnight For These Areas Where Confidence On P-type Is Higher. Coastal Flooding Quite Possible As Strong Winds Coincide With The Higher Of The Two Daily Astronomical Tides From Late Monday Evening On. Precipitation Is Expected To Change Back To Snow All Areas After Midnight...with Some Further Accumulations Possible Into Tuesday Morning Both From The Departing Storm And A Strong Shortwave Rotating Around Deep Closed Low Over The Lower Great Lakes. This Low Moves Up Into Southeast Canada By Thursday. Will Keep Chance/slight Chance Pop Going Into Wednesday With Low Level Moisture And Cyclonic Flow Continuing...along With Mid Level Vort Spoke Rotating Through.

Not Much Change To Forecast For Thursday And Beyond...clipper System Passing Through May Give Us Some Light Snow Friday Into Early Saturday Morning With Temps Remaining Below Normal.

[Jeffery McElroy]

Hey guys, check out this special weather statment just issued for S/central Fl:
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE
SYSTEM WILL PULL WARM AND HUMID AIR RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SUNCOAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 15000 FEET. THIS
COMBINATION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STORMS ON SUNDAY.


...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA CROSSES THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. THIS LINE WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...COASTAL RESIDENTS CAN
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE RISE IN TIDES LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST TIDES WOULD BE UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...CAUSING OVERWASH BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SYSTEM STRENGTHEN FURTHER OR A STRONGER SQUALL
LINE DEVELOP...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO
LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING WATCHES AS SOON AS
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WARNINGS THEREAFTER.

IF YOU HAVE A TORNADO SAFETY PLAN...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO
REVIEW IT.

Now, that last line just scared me.

[Jason234]

.long Term (monday Through Friday)...12z Gfs And 00z Ecmwf Look Very Similar Regarding Evolution Of Potent Quick-hitting Coastal Storm For Late Monday And Monday Night...but There Is Still Some Spread Among Other Models...with The 12z Ecmwf Now Taking A More Offshore Track With The Primary Low And The 12z Nam Still More Of An Inland Runner. Have Taken A Middle Of The Road Approach Much Like Yesterday And Gone With A Primarily 12z Gfs/00z Ecmwf Solution...but Several Hours Slower. Temps Aloft Will Be Cold Enough For Snow At All Levels...but Boundary Layer Temps Start Off Aoa Freezing Monday Afternoon Before Onset Of Precip. Mav Temps/dewpoint Depressions At That Time Have Me Concerned Temps Could Wet-bulb Down To Freezing Throughout The Area Yielding A Burst Of Snow At The Onset....but Think Strong Easterly Flow Off The Ocean Will Eventually Win Out And Change P-type To All Rain In Long Island Through Monday Evening. Will Be A Very Close Call Across Nyc/northeast/nj/coastal Connecticut...will Go With A Rain/snow Mix There. Inland Sections Could See Significant Accumulating Snow On The Order Of 6-12 Inches...winter Storm Watches Could Be Issued Overnight For These Areas Where Confidence On P-type Is Higher. Coastal Flooding Quite Possible As Strong Winds Coincide With The Higher Of The Two Daily Astronomical Tides From Late Monday Evening On. Precipitation Is Expected To Change Back To Snow All Areas After Midnight...with Some Further Accumulations Possible Into Tuesday Morning Both From The Departing Storm And A Strong Shortwave Rotating Around Deep Closed Low Over The Lower Great Lakes. This Low Moves Up Into Southeast Canada By Thursday. Will Keep Chance/slight Chance Pop Going Into Wednesday With Low Level Moisture And Cyclonic Flow Continuing...along With Mid Level Vort Spoke Rotating Through.

Not Much Change To Forecast For Thursday And Beyond...clipper System Passing Through May Give Us Some Light Snow Friday Into Early Saturday Morning With Temps Remaining Below Normal.

I have looked at re-analysis storms and let me tell you it's all about the confluence...it determines where the wind will be flowing and if you have a prolonged period of e se wind then your thinkness will rise regardless of the 850 mb temp...

[LI Phil]

Jeffery...this is the LI weather board, not the SW florida board. If you want to comment on my weather, that's fine but I do not jack your thread...unless you really want me to and I don't think you want that

Keith...when I post NWS statements, feel free to disagree with them, but don't take those statements as my views on our future weather.

K? You do not want to piss me off tonight...:icon_evil

[James]

Still pretty cold then. I noticed light snow being mentioned as well. Sorry if I'm deviating from the topic slightly, but how much snow have you had recently?

[LI Phil]

Still pretty cold then. I noticed light snow being mentioned as well. Sorry if I'm deviating from the topic slightly, but how much snow have you had recently?
James,


Since you are about the sole poster who doesn't piss me off, I shall respond.

We got about 3 slushy inches a few days ago and the most recent "storm" only dropped 5" or so inches...I believe Keith receive 7" or so. Ne'er the less, most of it has been plowed or shoveled away so there is a good amount still around, but our roads and sidewalks are all clear.

Monday will be very interesting to say the least...no matter what form the precip takes, it will be a NASTY NASTY day...think of the weather on the coast of Ireland or Brittany during the stormy season...that's what we are in for...50+ mph winds, driving surf, snow/sleet/rain...yech...

Cheers anyway, tho!

LI Phil

[James]

Thanks, Phil!

[Jeffery McElroy]

Jeffery...this is the LI weather board, not the SW florida board. If you want to comment on my weather, that's fine but I do not jack your thread...unless you really want me to and I don't think you want that

Seeing how this is technically a product of the same system, I surmised that I could post it here. I suppose I surmised wrong. At any rate, I am sorry for pissing you off.

[LI Phil]

Jeffery...this is the LI weather board, not the SW florida board. If you want to comment on my weather, that's fine but I do not jack your thread...unless you really want me to and I don't think you want that

Seeing how this is technically a product of the same system, I surmised that I could post it here. I suppose I surmised wrong. At any rate, I am sorry for pissing you off.
Of course it is the product of the same system...that isn't my point..Your weather and my weather are different...70 degree temps and waterspouts don't belong on my board anymore than 30 degree temps with 6-12" snow dumps belong on the SW fl board. You want to put that in the severe or even winter weather thread, then I'll debate you all night long. It doesn't matter anyway, since it's not like anyone actually comes on these boards looking for a weather forecast anyway. Sorry Rollie...

I'm interested in your weather, don't get me wrong...I love weather, any where any time, and any place.

Lets try to keep the weather threads somewhat jack free, K?

[Jeffery McElroy]

Sure thing.

EDIT: and my situation involves things a bit more serious than waterspouts

[LI Phil]

Sure thing.

EDIT: and my situation involves things a bit more serious than waterspouts
Yes, and tornadoes...put it in the severe weather thread!

[Jason234]

too bad phil and me can't have moderating powers over our own thread?

[Jason234]

I have looked at re-analysis storms and let me tell you it's all about the confluence...it determines where the wind will be flowing and if you have a prolonged period of e se wind then your thinkness will rise regardless of the 850 mb temp...


The reason for the forecast change is...from NWS

OVERALL...THERE ARE SEVERAL PLAYERS THAT WILL HELP FORM THIS STORM
TOMORROW...AND MODELS ARE HANDLING EACH PLAYER DIFFERENTLY.
ONE...THE RETROGRADING LOW OVER LABRADOR. TWO...THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT...AND THREE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. HOW FAST WILL THE
TWO STREAMS FULLY PHASE? GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE
LOW PASSES OUR LATITUDE. THUS...A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WITH THE SFC
LOW. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR COULD BE THAT CLOSED LOW OVER/NEAR
LABRADOR...WHICH ACTS TO HOLD THE UPPER CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND
A LITTLE LONGER...WHICH HELPS TO KEEP COLDER, DENSER AIR IN PLACE
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY HELP ESTABLISH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...KEEPING THE LOW OFFSHORE A BIT.

[LI Phil]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Upton Ny
1107 Am Est Sun Feb 27 2005

...a Significant Noreaster Is On The Way...

.a Developing Low Pressure System In The Gulf Of Mexico Will Move
Northeast This Afternoon...then Turn To The North Northeast Tonight
And Start Moving Up The Carolina Coast. This Motion Will Continue On
Monday While Rapidly Intensifying. By Monday Evening...the Strong
Area Of Low Pressure Is Forecast To Be Just Southeast Of Long Island.
The Low Will Continue Its Northward Progress Monday Night And Tuesday
As It Moves Into Northern New England And The Canadian Maritimes.

Ctz005>012-njz003>006-011-nyz071>081-010100-
Bergen Nj-bronx Ny-eastern Passaic Nj-essex Nj-hudson Nj-
Kings (brooklyn) Ny-nassau Ny-new York (manhattan) Ny-
Northeast Suffolk Ny-northern Fairfield Ct-northern Middlesex Ct-
Northern New Haven Ct-northern New London Ct-northwest Suffolk Ny-
Queens Ny-richmond (staten Is.) Ny-southeast Suffolk Ny-
Southern Fairfield Ct-southern Middlesex Ct-southern New Haven Ct-
Southern New London Ct-southern Westchester Ny-southwest Suffolk Ny-
Union Nj-
1107 Am Est Sun Feb 27 2005

...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Monday Afternoon To Late
Monday Night...

Snow Will Arrive Late Monday Morning Or Early Afternoon. Some Mixing
With Rain Or Sleet Will Be Possible By Late Monday Afternoon And
Evening...which Could Hold Down Snow Accumulations Somewhat.

Even So...current Indications Are That A 6 Inch Or Greater Snowfall
Could Occur By The Time The Snow Tapers Off Monday Night. Winds
Could Also Become Quite Strong During The Period Of Heaviest
Snowfall...with Considerable Blowing And Drifting Of Snow And
Significantly Reduced Visibilities.

Any Shift East Or West Of The Current Forecast Track Of The Low
Could Have A Drastic Effect On Final Snowfall Accumulations.

A Winter Storm Watch Is Issued When Severe Winter Weather Is
Possible...but Not Imminent. At The Time...there Is A Potential For
Significant Snow Accumulations. Future Driving And Walking
Conditions May Become Hazardous...so It Is Important To Monitor The
Latest Forecasts.

Stay Tuned To Noaa All Hazards Radio Or Visit Our Web Site At
Weather.gov/okx For Further Details Or Updates.

$$

Goodman

[Jason234]

check out my Blizzard after the 20th thread.

[LI Phil]

It will be dry and cold tonight with clouds increasing and lows in the 20s. Snow will arrive tomorrow from south to north from mid morning to early afternoon. Snow will become heavy at times later Monday into Monday evening. Some sleet is likely to mix in from time to time. The further east or south you go the better chance you might run into some rain mixing in as well. Winds will crank up by the later part of the day and evening from the ENE at 40 mph with gusts over 50mph. Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are likley in some areas. The snow or mix will taper down Monday night as the storm pulls away. Winds will also relax. Snowfall totals will range between 6-12" with a band of higher amonts possible. Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and cold with periods of light snow and snow showers. The weather will improve by mid-week.

Finally there is enough agreement between the models for a confident forecast. The 12 NAM came is trending further east. The other models are holding their ground with a coastal track. In the end, after days of varying model solutions the best course of action should end up being a perfect compromise. It seems the perfect coastal hugging solution will work out exactly. In most storms this would mean a change to rain for the City and coast. But this case is very different. Let's talk about why.

The 12z NAM shows the 850 mb and surface low stacked in NW NJ (the furthest west solution). What might seem strange to some is that even so NW NJ remains cold enoguh for snow. How can this be? Well I talked yesterday about the devil being in the details and the intensity of the storm/ how concentric it is. Well the details are turning out to be sooooo important in this case. The reason the NAM is NOT emphatic about warming the atmosphere is: Cross Isobaric flow at the surface and dynamic cooling aloft. BTW... the NAM has a 80 mph low level jet from 900 to 850 mb from the SE. But when you have rapidly rising and sinking air you can cool the atmosphere with the dynamics of the storm and the drag created by heavy falling precip.This is why the NAM remains colder than it would have otherwise been. Since I believe this storm will be a coastal hugger that means the NAM is still too far west. The track I outlined yesterday seems to be fine and a perfect compromise between the NAM and GFS. Actually it is exactly the Stonybrook 12z MM5 with may be a slight adjustment west. The track should be NC/SC slightly inland then to the southern NJ coast at which time the storm begins to snake NE to near Eastern LI.

Let's talk about the Stonybrook MM5. Here's the link: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi The track is right in line with what I think will occur. The surface pressures are still too low and the QPF is not enough. Just take the model with the lowest pressure and the model with the highest QPF. That is how this storm should turn out. Looking at the water vapor, radar and satellite images this storm is massive and more intense than any model had progged already. Ok back to the MM5. There is a great lesson to be learned from this model. Please follow along with the model because the illustration is vivid. At 39 hours the MM5 shows +24 vertical velocities over Long Island at 700 mb! Now look at the 850 mb temperatures. Notice that right under the intense vertical velocties there is a band of -4 to -5 C temperatures at 850 mb. In fact you can see that the bands of VV's are aligned perfectly with the lowest 850 mb temps. This is dynamic cooling illustrated better than I have ever seen it. The result is that barely any of this area changes to rain. One small detail... You will notice pockets of marginally warm-ish air around -1 to -2 C at 850 mb. In the clouds these temps end up being border line snow and sleet. So sleet will likley mix in from time to time, especially when the precip is not that heavy.

The models are finally showing a slower track to this low. It is not going to move that fast and could even slow to a crawl around or just north of our latitude. This could keep some of us in the steady snow for longer. Also the upper-level system will keep periods of light snow in the forecast through out Tuesday and perhaps later. So after the main event is over I see no reason why we can't pick up a couple more inches. If you look at the GFS it places a 992 mb extension over us on Tuesday in response to the vigorous upper -level low.

With all the above in mind let me tell you how I see it. This will be a consolidated storm but all of my area will see substantial QPF. I think the maximum band of QPF should be 1 to 1.5". The snow ratios will be 10 to 1 in most areas, with slightly more N&W and slightly less near the beaches. With a low level jet of 70-80 mph winds will howl during the height of this storm. The winds will not be as strong at the surface but sustained winds around 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph are not that far fetched close to the storm track. That of course means coastal flooding will be a concern during high tides along the New Jersey shore and LI (esp. the LI sound). Snow will begin Tomorrow mid morning through early afternoon from south to north. The snow will become very heavy by mid-afternoon through the early evening. As winds pick up near blizzard or blizzard conditions will be experienced in some areas.During the evening sleet should mix in especially closer to the low center. Along the immediate coast of NJ and eastern LI there is still the chance of rain mixed in for a time. I am not sure where the heavy band will set-up but near the City seems about right. The snow or mix south and east will gradually wind down overnight as the coastal pulls NE towards Cape Cod. Accumulations should range from 6-12" in most areas with a band of up to 16" possible. The 6 inch totals should be reserved to the folks who live right near the coast of LI and NJ. There could be a break in the snow for several hours but on Tuesday the back side of the low will move in along with the upper-level trough and spread on and off light snow into our area. We should pick up a little more accumulation from this if the sun angle doesn't overwhelm during the daytime.

Time to go out and lay in some bread and milk...

[Jason234]

What about the possibility of a secondary low forming...the heaviest precip. will fall as sleet throughout the island total storm accum. will be 3-6 inches around the island with the highest amounts in the coldest locations.

[LI Phil]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Upton Ny
930 Pm Est Sun Feb 27 2005

.short Term (overnight Through Tuesday)...

No Sig Changes Planned. 18z Gfs Still Has A Similar Track.

Otherwise...low Level Temps Will Dictate Precipitation Type. Mav
Guidance Looks High Given Both Cold Early Morning Temps And Cloud
Cover...current Temps At Buoy 44008 Which Are Only 32 Attm...and
Flow At Storm Onset From That General Direction...then Backing To A More Northeast...i.e. Land-based...trajectory As Huge Pressure Falls Induce Isallobaric Component To The Wind. Think Even If Mav Temps Verify They Would Then Wet-bulb Down Close To Freezing With The Onset Of Precip Given Dewpoints In The Mid 20s. Timing Of Precip Onset Still Looks Good...with A Burst Of Heavy Precipitation
Expected From Late Monday Afternoon Into The Evening...snow Except For A Brief Mix Of Rain And Sleet Across Parts Of Nyc...long Island And Southeast Ct Late In The Afternoon. Winds Will Also
Increase...with Sustained 20-30 Mph Northeast Winds And Gusts To 40 Mph Producing Near Blizzard Conditions Across Coastal Ct And Nyc. Higher Speeds Closer To Storm Force Likely Across Far Eastern Long Island.

Snow Decreases In Intensity Late Monday Night...and When All Is Said And Done Accumulations Of Up To A Foot Of Heavy Wet Snow Are Possible. Will Keep Likely Pop For Some Light Accumulations Into Tuesday As A Second Vertically Stacked Low Crosses The Area.
&&
.long Term (wednesday Through Saturday)...no Change From Previous
Forecast. Negative Nao Pattern Persists With Anomalous Long Wave
Trough Along The East Coast For The Foreseeable Future. Looking At
12z Saturday Gfs Ensemble Runs...this Pattern Is Highly Predictable
Through At Least Our Forecast Period And Likely Well Beyond
That...no End To Winter In The Northeast. As For Details...

Wednesday With Cold Nw Flow And Thermo Profile Moderately
Unstable...see No Reason Not To Have Chc Pop Snow Showers And
Flurries With Lake Enhanced Moisture. With Gfs Showing Strong
Shortwave For Early Thursday...would Expect This To Continue.

Will Keep Temps Below Mos Due To The Anomalous Temperatures.

Gradual Warming Toward End Of Period With Warm Advection Developing
Ahead Of Next Short Wave Which Has It's Origin Out In The Pacific
Near 170 W South Of The Aleutians. Thus...lots Of Time And Distance
For The Details On This To Change.

[LI Phil]

Here's a quick update as the storm rolls up the coast. The models still have not budged on their respective storm tracks. The GFS is east and a major snow for all areas especially Long Island as it does not show any mixing. The NAM and MM5 are coastal huggers with low pressure moving directly up the coast and just east of eastern LI. At this point the solution will probably be closer to the NAM but just east of it's position. Looking at the actual area of low pressure off the NC coast this morning it looks like it is closer to the NAM. That would bring in just enough warm air for mixing along the coast and perhaps as far west as the City. N&W of the City some ice pellets could briefly mix in towards the end of the heavy precip late this evening and early tomorrow morning. But for the most part it will be all snow for areas from the City west. The City will probably lay right along that line towards later evening. By then though significant accumulations are likely. Mixing should hold down accumulations the further east and south you go. At this point 4-8" of snow is the best bet for coastal locations and Suffolk. The City, and Nassau should see 6-12" of snow with some isolated higher amounts with in that band.

The heaviest snow will fall during the evening commute and through the evening. Near blizzard conditions with gusty winds will be common. The snow will be wet and heavy which will add a lot of weight to power lines, tree limbs and roofs. Thus power outages will be a concern as tree limbs snap and power lines rupture.

After a break in the snow early tomorrow morning snow showers and periods of light snow will work back in with the upper level low Tuesday into Wednesday. It is possible a couple more inches could accumulate. The high sun angle could make accumulating difficult though. It will depend on how heavy the bursts of snow are and how steady it is as well as surface temps. The best bet for any additional accumulations tomorrow will be in the higher elevations.

There will be some coastal flooding problems especially in the places that typically see flooding in Nor'easters and beach erosion too. High tides range from about 10-11 pm on the south shore of LI to NJ. The high tides in LI sound are in the early morning hours tomorrow at around 2 am.

Winds will be sustained at 25-35 mph during the hieght of the storm with gusts to near 50 mph.

Down the road the next chance of an accumulating snow is this weekend. An Alberta clipper will head south spreading a swath of snow through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. There will be some sharpening of the short-wave so coastal cyclogenesis is possible. Too early to call if this will become a player or not.

[Jeffery McElroy]

I just got home from school. How are you doing Phil (weatherwise).

EDIT: "cyclogenesis" --heh, this is my favorite word.

[LI Phil]

The first few light flakes have begun to fall...nothing is sticking and I wouldn't expect that for at least another hour or so...the real "fun" has not yet begun. If you're watching TWC (or even if you're not) can you tell me who they sent out to cover the events...

[James]

Take care out there.

[Jason234]

dude, this is not the storm you think it is.

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement As of 2:34 PM EST on February 28, 2005

Light snow has overspread the area and will continue to fall on the
light side through around 4:00 PM. After this... steadier and heavier
snow will develop in time for the evening rush hour commute. Snowfall
rates by 5:00 PM may be as much as 2 to 3 inches per hour... causing
whiteout conditions and hazardous travel conditions. Motorists are
urged to head to their destinations as soon as possible to avoid
these adverse driving conditions.

[LI Phil]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
350 PM MON FEB 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PROVIDE A QUICK
SHOT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST BUOYS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO AROUND 992 MB. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE LOW OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 18Z NAM TAKING IT DOWN TO 984 MB IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD TUE MORNING.

MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS AND ETA NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W AT 06Z TUE. THE SUNY MM5 00Z ENSEMBLES MEMBERS POINT TO A TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WHILE A TRUE POLAR HIGH IS MISSING...THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAINLY SNOW EVENT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT WHERE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET IS LIKELY... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AT THE TIME THE HEAVIEST PCPN COMES TO AN END.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING SETTING UP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH MODEL OMEGA FIELDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/CSI HAS RESULTED IN 2 TO 3 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN CENTRAL NJ THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC METRO AREA BY 4 PM.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT FAVORED SNOW GROWTH SUPPORTS HIGHER SNOW RATIOS...BUT A BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR ZERO CELSIUS INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING OF THE DENDRITES. THUS...GOING WITH A 10:1 SNOW RATIO...BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER IF THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH WITH STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SNOW TAPERS DOWN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...EXPECT LIGHT SNOWS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE HILLS OF NE NJ.

THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS INTO WED.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL ENSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THE ECMWF MORE OR LESS SWINGS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WITH REALLY NO RESEMBLANCE OF A SURFACE WAVE.
&&

[Jeffery McElroy]

984 MB

Wow! The pressure here only dropped to about 1000 mb last night. What an amazing (however common) weather event.

[Jason234]

especially with a negative NAO. have a solid 2 inches on the ground...

[Jason234]

STORM TOTAL ACCUM.(before ULL progresses over) -5 INCHES

[LI Phil]

After my crow munching forecast for Monday's event (although I was far from the only one, including actual mets, who busted big time on amounts), I'm gonna take a while to reanalyze the climo before making any more long and windy posts. I'll just throw up the NWS forecast for today. Next event should be a clipper on Friday-Sat, with minimal accumulations. Other than that, it will remain cold, and much colder than averages, for the foreseeable future, so any systems that do pass through will have potential for more snow...next two days are quiet, will hold off on any predictions for amounts from the Friday system. Here's NWS Upton:

Today: A slight chance of snow showers before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 33. West wind between 17 and 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 21. West wind between 13 and 20 mph.

Friday: A slight chance of snow showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 37. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 37.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 37.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 25.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 34.

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[LI Phil]

.short Term (this Afternoon-fri)...deep Closed Low Over Quebec Will Remain Fairly Stationary Over Se Quebec The Next 48 Hours. This Will Allow For Continued Troughing In The Ne With A Series Of Weak Shortwaves Rotating Around The Base. The Core Of The Arctic Air Will Remain Over Quebec Under The Closed Low...but With 850 Hpa Temps Running -10 To -14c Through The Period Expect Temps To Continue 5 To 10 Degrees Below Normal. Nw-w Gradient Between Quebec Low And Strong High Pressure Sinking Through Ohio/tennessee Valley Will Keep A Tight Gradient And Blustery Conditions Through At Least Fri Afternoon. Weak Shortwave Passes Through Tonight...but With Drying Downslope Flow...believe Most Activity Should Stay N And W Of Cwa.

Gfs/eta Soundings Depicting A Good Bit Of Instability Strato-cu
Develop Tomorrow Afternoon As Another Weak Shortwave Passes To The North. With Westerly Flow Up To Boundary Layer Expect Moisture Will Not Be Optimal For Snow Shower Activity...but Can't Rule Out A Few Flurries Especially Over Northern Section With Some Weak Mid-level Lift And Theta-e Advection Late In The Day.
&&

.mid Term (fri Night-sun Night)...strong Shortwave Rounds Base Of
Mean Trough On Saturday...but Models In Good Agreement With Best Dynamics Diving South Of The Region And Then Out To Sea. This Trend Takes The Associated Clipper System Through The Ohio Valley On Sat And Then Through The Delmarva Sat Night...with Our Region Remaining Relatively Dry. Closed Low Over Southern Quebec Finally Rotates North As Polar Vortex Drops Down From Hudson Bay To Take It Place. During This Transition Temperatures Will Modify A Bit (-5 To -7c 850 Hpa Temps)...only A Few Degrees Below Normal Through This Period. Another Shortwave/clipper System Will Pass Through The Ne Late Sunday...with Dynamics On This Further North Over Our Cwa. Will Introduce Slight Chance/chance Late Sun/sun Night. &&

.long Term(mon-thu)...gfs/ecmwf/ukmet Somewhat In Agreement With Pac Shortwave Diving Into The Central Plains Sunday Night And Then Phasing With Strong Shortwave Rotating Around Hudson Bay Low. The Phased Trough Axis Will Amplify...negatively Tilt And Pivot Through The Northeast Tues/wed. Gfs/ukmet/ecmwf Are In Agreement With Clipper System Deepening Over The Great Lakes On Monday And Then Tracking Through The Ne On Tues. There Are Slight Differences In Strength Of This System...due To Model Differences In Strength Of Phased Trough...but Nonetheless Models Have Trended Toward A Further North Solution Than Previous Runs...with Subsequently Milder Air Being Pulled Up The Coast. Although Temp Profiles And Thickness Would Support A Start As Snow Early Monday...this Track Would Cause A Possible Changeover To Rain At The Coast And At Least A Mix Into Northern Zones By Late Monday. Trough Axis Pivots Northeast Of Region On Wednesday With Polar Vortex Settling Into Southern Ontario/quebec. The Rest Of The Week Will Feature Greenland Blocking And Troughing In The East And Pseudo Rex Block/ridging In The West. This Pattern Will Bring A Return To Unseasonably Cold Temperatures And Another Series Of Clipper System/shortwaves. Both Gfs/ecmwf Also Hint At Northern And Southern Streams Phasing Late Week With Possible Coastal Development. Still A Long Ways Off...but Something To Watch As Pattern Is Conducive To Development.
&&

[LI Phil]

This weekend looks mostly dry and cool. Temperatures will rebound closer to normal but overall still a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. There will be two weak storms that will pass by, one on Saturday and one on Sunday. The first will miss us to the south but should spread some clouds in on Saturday and the chance of a passing flurry. On Sunday another weak Alberta Clipper will pass by mostly to the north this time. So clouds will come back in on Sunday with the chance of a few flurries. Despite this chance of flurries, both Saturday and Sunday will feature some sunshine and mainly dry weather. The next bigger storm will form later Monday and into Tuesday. Initially it looks warm enough for rain or a mixture. As the system reforms on Tuesday it could pull enough cold air back in to change the precip to snow.

We are embedded in the most active pattern of the season. Each day or two another disturbance drives south from Canada and brings with it the potential to become more than just an Alberta Clipper. The question is always which disturbance will be the chosen "one" if any. The models have a particularly hard time in this type of pattern. One day you will see them advertise a big storm with one particular short-wave and the next day it will be the following short-wave. The reason is simply that each disturbance affects the others up and down wind. So take three disturbances... if the model is wrong about #1 and #3 then how it could it possibly get #2 correct? So this is what we are going to be dealing with the next week.

At this point we are just getting a handle on how the Monday/Tuesday system will evolve. The models are coming into agreement that the northern stream will push a disturbance and surface low towards the area Monday. Milder air will push in ahead of this system so most of our area should see this system as rain or a mix. The system will become more complicated Monday and Monday night. There will be a significant amount of energy embedded in the trough lagging behind. A surface low will take shape as a reflection of this energy SW of our area and move towards us on Tuesday. The EC, UK, and NOGAPS all have a nearly identical solution with a major low right over Long Island on Tuesday evening. The exact track of this surface low will determine whether it is rain, snow or a combo of both. My initial guess is that the system will start as rain and turn to snow. At this time specifics are impossible to pinpoint.

The next shortwave will be Thursday and another Saturday. Some models develop the Thursday system. Some develop the Saturday system. The GGEM supresses the Thursday system but in doing so it develops the Satruday system into a 969 bomb. But if the GGEM is wrong and the Thursday system materializes then the Saturday system will be supressed. So rather then wasting my time with trying to reason a forecast out of this mess... let's just see how Tuesday works out first. Tuesday will affect the other two systems after it. Believe me I have seen patterns like this before... the models are good at seeing each disturbance but bad at predicting the evolution of each because there are just too many systems. One things that is for sure... there is enough cold air available for ANY of these systems to tap. So if the evolutions of any/all of the upcoming systems are favorbale to "tap" this cold air then a snow storm will occur.

[LI Phil]

As a strong cold front heads east through the Ohio Valley warm air will spread northward ahead of it. That will make for a nice mild day with highs in the low to mid 50s today with partly sunny skies. The clouds will thicken later on with rain developing tonight. The rain will continue for the morning rush and the cold front will pass. Colder air will surge eastward and temperatures will tumble along with gusty NW winds during the afternoon. As the colder air works in a swath of snow will develop on the backside of the low pressure/ cold front. So from the mid morning into the early afternoon the rain showers will turn to snow for a brief time. Some areas could pick up a quick coating to an inch or two if the snow falls heavy enough. Wednesday and Thursday look dry and cold with highs in the 30s. The next significant storm will be on Friday into Saturday morning. This looks mostly like a snow event.

First let's touch on the storm for tonight and tomorrow. For days the models have been showing energy lagging in the trough behind the initial storm system. Thus some model scenarios have been advertising a redevelopment of the surface low along the cold front as it passes through. The 06z GFS has that low forming just off NJ. The 06z NAM has the low forming further north. Where this wave of low pressure forms will determine the extent of the snow on the backside of the storm. Either way it should not be a big deal in our area... it is just too little too late. But if the 06 GFS pans out we could pick up a quick inch or two especially east of the City. The placement of the energy in the trough would argue for about 50% post frontal precip of which 25 % should be snow. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick but heavy burst of snow on the backside of this front. Probably the most important aspect of this storm is that once east of New England it will explode and become very strong. This is important in two ways. First it will pull down very cold air for this time of year with strong & dry NW winds. The storm will then become a block NE of us into Eastern Canada. This should deflect the next shortwave south of us Thursday and not allow it to amplify. Thus we will get nothing from the once advertised Thursday system. To you snow lovers this might sound like a let down but in reality it is absolutely necessary for the evolution of the Friday/Saturday system.

I just saw the 12z NAM. It is finally showing the reflection of that energy lagging in the trough by reforming the surface low pressure further south along the front. Now the NAM develops the 2ndary low much further south off the Delmarva. This increases our chances of seeing post-frontal snow tomorrow especially east of the City. Again this will be no big deal since temperatures will not yet be all that cold and most of the energy will be spent already. But a brief shot of steady snow could put down that coating to 2". The higher amounts are likely over LI/CT.

Now let's move on... In my last post I talked about these types of patterns where there are numerous short-waves embedded in the flow only a day or two apart from each other. They always leads to a lot of disappointment. In order for any one of these short-waves to amplify it needs breathing room. Because the specific details of each disturbance are not well resolved several days out on the models, the models tend to allow each system to amplify. Of course once the short-waves get into the time frame of the shorter-range models things change. The short range models can see the destructive interference between 2 waves too close together. So to all of you weather enthusiasts and meteorologists to be... when there are too many systems too close together don't be so quick to jump on the storm bandwagon. The better course of action is to wait for the "one" with the most promise. Picking that can be hard but it can be done. Most disturbances will end up being duds for many reasons... one might steal moisture from another, one might not allow the other to amplify, etc...

Now let's talk about reality. The progression of this week's short-waves are lining up perfectly for a late week Nor'easter. Tomorrow's storm will explode as the energy gets wrapped up east of New England. This will drive cold air southward setting the stage in the Tri-state area for a late week snow storm. The next short-wave that the models tried to develop is the Thursday short-wave. The confluence and blocking from Tuesday's storm will stunt the growth of the Thursday system. Thus the Thursday system should pass way south of us and not really become significant until its way offshore of the SE coast. This is sooooooo important if you want a snow storm. Because the more amp'd the Thursday system becomes, the less amp'd the Friday/Saturday will become. We have seen this effect for the past week. Now let's address the NAM. The NAM at 84 hours has been very good at pinpointing whether each disturbance will become something or not. While the other models might have still been advertising a significant storm from the past short-waves the NAM has been able to see the "destructive interference" between waves. Thus it has shown nothing significant and rightly so. The latest NAM is clearly showing the supression of the Thursday system and the amplification (500 mb) of the late week system. This makes sense given the set-up before it. Simply, the Tuesday system amplifies and the Thursday doesn't materialize. In this way you have 3 days breathing room from Tuesday to Friday. That is enough room for the end of the week system to amplify. By that time there will still be enough cold air in place to make this a mainly snow event. I am confident in this event because the pattern makes logical sense. Last week when the models were showing every short-wave becoming a snow storm it just did not make sense. But this week's scenario does make sense. The end of the week storm is the one to hype. Just be aware that the Thursday system is bound to steal some of its thunder so don't expect a blockbuster storm. Just expect a snow storm.

[LI Phil]

...windy and wintry conditions return to the tri-state region on
tuesday...

a clipper system over the great lakes will continue to move
east...moving across upstate new york and into northern new england
tonight. a trailing cold front will approach the region
tonight...before traversing the tri-state area tuesday morning. as
this cold front pushes through...a wave of low pressure will develop
along the new jersey coast...and rapidly intensify as it moves east.
this will result in a tightening pressure gradient between the
developing low pressure and high pressure over the great lakes.

scattered showers will begin to overspread the region later this
evening...with a more steady heavier rain holding off until just
before daybreak on tuesday. the rain may be heavy at times late
tonight and tuesday morning. after the cold front pushes through
tuesday morning...strengthening northwesterly winds will start to
usher in a much colder airmass. although the exact timing is still
uncertain...the rain is expected to change over to snow by tuesday
afternoon before tapering off. generally only light accumulations of
one to three inches are expected across much of the local region.
further east...across eastern long island and southeast
connecticut...there could be some higher amounts as these locations
will be closer to the storm as it pulls away late in the day.

winds will increase behind the front...becoming strong and
gusty by late tuesday. the potential exists for sustained winds of
20 to 30 mph with wind gusts up around 45 mph late in the afternoon.
as the departing low pressure system continues to intensify over the
gulf of maine tuesday night...winds will continue to increase
tuesday evening and may require a wind advisory to be issued at a
later time.

the national weather service will continue to monitor this situation.
stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

[LI Phil]

Winter Weather Statement As of 4:55 am EST on March 8, 2005

... The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued an a Winter
Weather Advisory in effect from noon this afternoon to
midnight EST Wednesday...

Rain will change to snow by around midday as Arctic air rushes into
the region. Snow will fall heavy at times through this evening. Total
snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected.

Although snow will be slow to accumulate early this afternoon with
warm ground temperatures... this will not be the case late this
afternoon as temperatures drop into the upper 20s. Travel will become
hazardous as Road surfaces become icy and strong winds cause
blowing and drifting of the snow.

The snow will taper off early tonight... but the combination of
strong winds and temperatures dropping into the mid teens will
create windchill values of 0 to 5 degrees below zero after midnight.

The mentioned advisory is issued when snow and or ice is forecast to
develop in the affected areas... but accumulations are expected to be
light. Any snow or ice would make driving and walking difficult but
not impossible on untreated roadways and sidewalks. When temperatures
are below freezing... motorists need to be especially careful on
bridges and overpasses where slippery spots can easily develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards radio or visit our web site at
weather.Gov/okx for further details.

[LI Phil]

Winter Weather Statement As of 11:13 am EST on March 8, 2005

... A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until midnight...

Rain will change to snow across the entire area by noontime. The snow
will be moderate to locally heavy at times with a total snow
accumulation of 2 to 4 inches expected.

Initially... the snow will be slow to accumulate due to the warmer
temperatures of earlier this morning... however... Arctic air spilling
southeast across the area this afternoon will drop temperatures into
the upper 20s. Travel will become hazardous as Road surfaces become
icy and strong winds will cause blowing and drifting of the snow.

Although the snow will taper this evening... the combination of
strong winds and temperatures dropping into the lower teens will
create wind chill values of 0 to 5 degrees below zero after midnight.

High Wind Advisory As of 12:58 PM EST on March 8, 2005

... Wind Advisory extended until 8 am EST Wednesday...

Northwest winds will continue to strengthen through the remainder of
the afternoon as low pressure to the southeast continues to deepen.

Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected to overspread the
tri-state area this afternoon... with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph.
The highest wind speeds are expected to occur across the eastern
sections... such as eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut
since these locations will be closer to the track of the low
pressure area. These winds are expected to continue through much of
the overnight.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards radio or visit our web site at
weather.Gov/okx for further details or updates.

[Jeffery McElroy]

50 mph? Wow, that is tropical storm force. Just out of curiosity, what's the greatest wind you have experienced?

[LI Phil]

50 mph? Wow, that is tropical storm force. Just out of curiosity, what's the greatest wind you have experienced?
Well, I went thru Hurricane Gloria (CAT I) in 1985, but I wasn't going outside in that. I've been to Whiteface Mountain and Mt. Tremblant, and at the top of the mountain, I'd swear I was in hurricane force winds. One time, I remember this very vividly, the wind was really rushing upslope, I mean just flying up the mountain, and it was very difficult to get ANY downhill momentum. And it was cold as hell. Only took two runs that day.

BTW, this will be my last post for a short while, as the office is now closed due to the weather and I will be heading on home.

I've probably experienced a gust of 100 mph in Gloria, and that would probably be it. I certainly have never experienced 145 sustained, nor do I ever wish to.

[Jeffery McElroy]

Not to jack your thread, but I heard something about conditions like that existing on mountains. The Weather Channel had an interesting bit on that not too recently. Supposedly conditions can get to major hurricane force. I never knew that you yourself had been through a hurricane (welcome to the club). We have buddies who recorded gust upwards 190/200 mph in Andrew. While I wouldn't be surprised if these conditions did in fact exist, they must have had one hell of an anemometer. At the airport (which received winds considerably less intense than my house) a 170+ mph wind gust knocked out the instruments during Charley. Now THAT is some wind. I think some of these major wind events are a tad stronger than the NHC suggest.


EDIT Oh, and stay safe on your way home.

Sgt. Slappy out.

[Jason234]

87...

[Jeffery McElroy]

87 what?

:edit: Oh I got ya. Where did this happen?

[LI Phil]

That was something!

Holy shit, batboy & slappyII. Winds and windwhipped snow are DEFINITELY stronger than those during our blizzard. Normally my commute is on the order of 5 minutes. It took me 1 half hour to get home. Roads are treacherous, even tho there is only 2-3 on snow, but with the winds, easily, EASILY gusting to 50-60, visibility is less than 1/8th mile at best. Everyone left work at the same time of course, so the roads are jammed, and if you could do 10 mph, you'd be arrested for speeding. The roads haven't been salted or sanded, no plows in sight. This one caught everyone off guard, that's for sure. This is why the NWS has GOT to stop relying on the GFS for it's forecasts. The GFS is Good For Shit! It's better 10 days out than 2.

Looks like my tennis tonight will be cancelled. I really don't want to go back out in this...check out my signature, I haven't looked but I'll bet its down to 25 degrees with 30MPH sustained...guess I'll find out in one second.

EDIT: That was the temperature and wind at 4:08. Down to 23 and 26mph. I was pretty close...

[Jeffery McElroy]

Crap. I cannot even imagine what that must be like. It's approx 70 right now and a bit breezy at that.

[LI Phil]

STFU and get out of my thread NOW!

[Jeffery McElroy]

I was just leaving...

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement As of 4:13 PM EST on March 8, 2005

... Hazardous wind chills overnight into early Wednesday...

Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of a departing offshore storm
will continue to usher a cold Canadian airmass into our region. The
combination of these strong winds and lowering temperatures will
generate wind chills into the single digits this evening and down to
around zero before daybreak.


Winter Weather Statement As of 3:52 PM EST on March 8, 2005

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until midnight...

Occasional light to moderate snow will linger through early this
evening with an additional inch possible. Total snow accumulation of
around 3 inches can be expected.

The combination of blowing and falling snow will create hazardous
conditions... with drifting snow and poor visibilities. Roads will be
very icy due to the wet conditions prior to the changeover to snow
and the intrusion of Arctic air.

The snow will taper off this evening... but the combination of strong
winds and temperatures dropping into the lower teens will create
wind chill values of 0 to 5 degrees below zero after midnight.

[Jason234]

87 what?

:edit: Oh I got ya. Where did this happen?


just outside my house today...

[LI Phil]

just outside my house today...
WTF are you smoking? Don't jack the weather threads you two slapnuts!

[Jason234]

Jeff, try this on for size...a high temperature below 29, with a roaring north wind gusting at 40 mphs! That put's windchills below zero!

[LI Phil]

That was something!

Holy shit, batboy & slappyII. Winds and windwhipped snow are DEFINITELY stronger than those during our blizzard.
OK, I posted that yesterday afternoon...here's what Henry Margusity had to say last night...

TUESDAY 9pm UPDATE

ONE OF THE WORST BLIZZARDS IN TERMS OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TO HIT NEW ENGLAND, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE SINCE THE 70S. WORST THEN THE JANUARY STORM.


I guess I was the only one calling this a blizzard this morning. So far, I have not seen anyone else calling this a blizzard. It has the winds, the temperatures, and the duration of heavy snow. In many places, this storm is worst then the January blizzard in regards to the high winds and heavy snow. It might now live up to the 30 inches of snow that fell during the January blizzard, but believe, when it comes down TO the high winds, blowing snow, horrible weather conditions and intense snow, it is a BLIZZARD. People who go out tonight better be prepared for the worst conditions....... Also, this may be the worst storm to hit New England since the 70s. Expect accumulations up to 6 inches or more across eastern New England.

As a side note, this storm is more of a blizzard then the January storm.. !!!

Hmmmm...

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Upton Ny
433 Am Est Fri Mar 11 2005

...more Wintry Weather On The Way...

.a Clipper System Will Approach Today...then Cross The Region This
Evening. The Low Will Then Redevelop And Intensify East Of Boston
Saturday While Moving Eastward.

433 Am Est Fri Mar 11 2005

Light Snow Is Likely To Fall This Morning Across The Tri-state Area In Association With A Weak Area Of Low Pressure. It's Possible That A Dusting Of Snow May Coat Roads During The Rush Hour As Surface Temperatures Are To Remain Cold. This May Result In Slippery Travel.

As The Late Morning And Afternoon Hours Approach...temperatures Will Warm Up Into The Upper 30s To Around 40 Degrees. This Will Quickly Allow The Snow To Melt On Pavement. In Addition...the Warm Temperatures Will Allow The Snow To Turn To Light Rain By Early This Afternoon.

As The Low Develops Off The Coast This Evening...colder Air Will
Filter Into The Tri-state Area. This Will Allow Any Rain To Change
Over To Snow During The Course Of The Evening Hours. At This
Time...accumulations Overnight Are Expected To Be An Inch Or Less.
Particular Attention Will Have To Paid To The Forecast This Evening As Some Localized Heavier Snow Banding May Develop. While Not Likely At This Time...higher Snow Accumulations Would Be Possible.

Stay Tuned To Noaa Weather Radio And Other Local Media For Further Details Or Updates.

[LI Phil]

There was some snow early this morning, but unless you were out and about early, you probably missed it. It'll be a quiet weekend weather-wise, with a mini-warming trend heading our way.





The morning snowfall is over for most of our area, with the small storm leaving an inch on Central Park and in Newark, but six inches of snow in Islip.


What's left on the ground will melt pretty quickly, with today's high temperature hitting 42 and some sun peeking through. It will be windy, however, so it'll feel colder than that.

Low temperature tonight will be 30, with partly cloudy conditions.

Sunday will be a mix of clouds and sunshine and a quiet day weather-wise, with a high of 42. After that, Monday skies are mostly sunny, with a high of 40. After that we'll have a mini-warming trend, with nice conditions and a high of 44 for Tuesday, and a high of near-50 for Wednesday.

[Jason234]

The dry time is over. Spring rain storms offer prolific amounts of precipitation, and that seems to be the case this season. Another wet and chilly April, due to the indices and the massive block-or what's left of it. There seems to be a severe weather prospect, or a very heavy rain event on Tuesday, with Long Island receiving 1.75 inches of QPF in approximately 6 hours-I doubt that will come to fruition. Though, I do want severe weather and this seems to be a good first try at it.

[LI Phil]

Here's my local NWS forecast...slaves to the GFS...bastids. Keith could give a better forecast than this, while in the barrell, on the phone with 911 & walking his dog...

Today: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

*way to go out on a limb with the short term forecast there...

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 34. North wind around 8 mph.

*OK, this one actually predicts the weather

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high around 49. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest.

*Very important to know that a 6 mph wind will shift from north to south...that's really gonna affect the wind chill values

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low near 35. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

*a chance of rain...why do I get the feeling I'll be seeing that phrase a lot in this forecast?

Wednesday: Rain likely, mainly between 11am and noon. Cloudy, with a high around 46. East wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

*Chance of precip is slightly above 50%, yet I could see a half inch of rain? Could this forecast bust? It's umpossible

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

*ah yes, a chance of rain...

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

*no chance of rain?

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

*what's the difference between partly cloudy and partly sunny? well, at night there is no sun...

Friday: A chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

*a chance of rain...hmmmm

Friday Night: A chance of rain, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

*it's friggin spring...a chance of rain?

Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

*there's that phrase again...

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

*um

Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

*yep

"Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. And sometimes it rains. Think about that for a while"...

[LI Phil]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
333 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...EARLY SPRING NOR'EASTER TO IMPACT REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

.A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM SPAWNING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE AIM FOR THE NORTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF THE DELMARVA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF A RETREATING POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH AND AN
EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING...WET SNOWFALL
EVENT. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN EVENT...WITH SOME
MIXING POSSIBLE...WHILE FARTHER INLAND...A PREDOMINANTLY WET SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. AS THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT...THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN TRACK OF THE STORM TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET.

WHILE THIS IS LATE MARCH...DO NOT LET THE RECENT MILD WEATHER DROP
YOUR GUARD. AN EARLY SPRING SNOWFALL IS NOT UNUSUAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. A SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

[Hemorhage]

That's it, I'm moving to Long Island!! Objections anyone, lol..

[Jason234]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
333 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...EARLY SPRING NOR'EASTER TO IMPACT REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

.A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM SPAWNING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE AIM FOR THE NORTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF THE DELMARVA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF A RETREATING POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH AND AN
EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING...WET SNOWFALL
EVENT. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN EVENT...WITH SOME
MIXING POSSIBLE...WHILE FARTHER INLAND...A PREDOMINANTLY WET SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. AS THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT...THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN TRACK OF THE STORM TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET.

WHILE THIS IS LATE MARCH...DO NOT LET THE RECENT MILD WEATHER DROP
YOUR GUARD. AN EARLY SPRING SNOWFALL IS NOT UNUSUAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. A SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

watch em' screw this one up!

[Hemorhage]

I would like to see what comes of this.

[LI Phil]

watch em' screw this one up!
Well, at least this a forecast, unlike what I ripped on Monday. Monday is 48 hours before Wednesday...well within the timeframe for a reasonable forecast. Yet on Monday they were calling for a 60% chance of rain for Tomorrow. Now they issue this watch...which sounds to me like there's pretty much a 100% chance of rain. WTF.

I also like how they hedge on the snowfall (if any) amounts...

THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN TRACK OF THE STORM TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THE EVENT.

This probably isn't important or anything. Why don't they just say:

"This is what the GFS is telling us now...we don't check any other models for comparison, and even if we did, we wouldn't change our forecast anyway. Of course since the GFS performs so horribly in the short term, we must advise you that the GFS is probably very wrong so we need to put in a disclaimer about the track of the storm. So if you end up getting 4 inches of heavy wet snow and treelimbs snap and cause power outages, allowing you to maybe lay in some supplies in the event of an extended power outage, don't say we didn't say it couldn't happen."

Then they blame the time of the season for their uncertainty:

WHILE THIS IS LATE MARCH...DO NOT LET THE RECENT MILD WEATHER DROP YOUR GUARD. AN EARLY SPRING SNOWFALL IS NOT UNUSUAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

See, they are the master of CYA (that means cover your a$$ Keith).

Basically, it is impossible to bust on this forecast...but it really doesn't matter because they're not really telling us anything specific only what "could" happen. I'm pissed because I haven't had any time to study any of the models nor check out any other weather sites, so I have no idea what to expect, other than that I should probably bring an umbrella and not wear a good pair of shoes...

[Hemorhage]

Everything's gonna be alright, Phil!!

[LI Phil]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Upton Ny
1013 Am Est Wed Mar 23 2005

...heavy Rain Likely At Times Today And This Evening...followed By
Some Accumulating Snow Tonight...

.a Early Spring Low Pressure System Will Gather Strength Off The
Virginia Coast Later Today. This Low Will Intensify Rapidly
Overnight As It Moves Along Just South Of Long Island. During
Thursday This Low Will Move Well Out Over The Western Atlantic.

Bronx Ny-essex Nj-hudson Nj-kings (brooklyn) Ny-nassau Ny-
New York (manhattan) Ny-northeast Suffolk Ny-northwest Suffolk Ny-
Queens Ny-richmond (staten Is.) Ny-southeast Suffolk Ny-
Southwest Suffolk Ny-union Nj-
1013 Am Est Wed Mar 23 2005

Rain Currently Overspreading The Region Will Quite Likely Become
Heavy At Times Today Through This Evening. This Could Spell Some
Significant Ponding Of Water On Area Roadways For The Evening Rush Hour. As The Low Pressure Center Strengthens To The South Of Long Island Tonight...colder Air Will Be Drawn Into The System. This Would Effectively Change The Rain Over To Snow By Around Midnight Or So. By Early Thursday Morning Between 1 And 3 Inches Of Snow May Have Accumulated. This Will Make For A Slippery Thursday Morning Rush Hour.

[Hemorhage]

Oh the messy stuff!!

[LI Phil]

Oh the messy stuff!!
I just went outside for a smoke, and right now the weather is undecided between, sleet, wet snow and cold rain.

I am sick and phucking tired of winter...:icon_evil

[Jason234]

I know that's good news...the first event could have some precipitation in the form of sleet or wet snow, but here accumulations wouldn't be more then 1-3 inches. Otherwise on and off light snow and rain shower's, just ugly weather. High's for Friday will only top out around 42 with this southern track. I am really getting tired of this ridiculously cold weather for this time of year, and cloudiness. Sunday we could see another gully washer (moderate to heavy rain) and possible thunderstorms. Good news is no precip. in the frozen form. After that, next week will be warm and slightly above average, with 850 mb temperatures soaring to 6-8 C. But the ridge is transient, and DO NOT KISS WINTER GOODBYE. It will have it's revenge in April. El nino winter's never end, they fizzle out.

[Jason234]

scratch out that friday event, it will pass too far too our south. Instead a howling west wind, with a mostly cloudy sky will be the replacement. I have yet to throughly exam the sunday event, but this time I will have the time.

[Jason234]

A negatively tilted trof/early spring storm to affect the tri-state region. This will be a severe event in terms of flooding and wind. The ETA, GFS, NOGAPS all have LIer's receiving greater then 1 " of QPF. Initially precip. will be convective shower's and T-storms associated with the left front quad of the LLJ, not yet picked up by syp. scale models. The rest of the precip. will be materialize thru the strong PVA. Luckily, all precip. will be in the form of rain throughout the zones, as you're cramming excessive amounts of moisture into the atmosphere, thickness's are bound to rise! The GFS has more of an easterly component with the storm, whereas the ETA is more 'cutter' like. I favor a more cutter like solution because of the teleconnection pattern associated with the storm going due west at the Phillippines, that bodes for a ridge off the Cape. Since the zone's will be located in the warm sector of the storm, and the proximity to an 1004 high wind's could be a problem. Probably not wind adv. criteria, but strong enough to reduce visibilities. Plan ahead, travel will be greater reduced for late Easter Sunday and Monday.

[Jason234]

The GFS now has a very large dry slot traversing the area, whereas the NAM remains the same-give or take a couple tenth's of precip. It will still be a big event regardless... even if the GFS's track comes to frutition, but no other models except the GFS have gone that root, and given the track record of that model, I still favor the NAM's track. Therefore, I'm sticking to my gun's for the tri-state area receiving an average of .75 " of precip. in the form of rain. With the snow pack up north in Connec-ti-cut and the higher elevations of NJ, flooding is a big concern. Many river's are already high, so just want to make that clear. Also, some t-boomer's are not out of the question monday late afternoon, when the best dynamics are over head (steep laspe rates); nothing severe attm. I will also discontinue the threat of wind, as the low is now progged much higher then orginally thought 998 as opposed to 990, but a presistent easterly fetch will keep clouds thick, and temps. *cold* for this time of year.