Event for 1/12/07 - 1/18/07

[toddrasmuson]

strong likelyhood of MAJOR ICE storm over central & southern
plains region by this upcoming weekend, with possible 2nd storm
system showing up on gfs by the coming monday to tues (15th and 16th)
first system will enter the plains by thursday into friday of this week
setting up possible ice storm event across the central plains region
by the weekend with several inches of ice poss esp across parts of
ks/ok and nc and ne tx... then there appears attm to be a break
sometime mon with another storm sys on the way by late monday
time frame into tues bringing the chance of poss heavy snow from
the latest thinking here appears attm to be a very good chance of
heavy snow across the southern plains regions of ok and tx from
late monday the 15th through that thursday jan 18th and again
after that into the following weekend possible 3rd storm system
by saturday the 20th. so non the less very active winter type
storm pattern for the central & sc plains region starting later
this week... i do at the moment think this will be a big one
and will halt travel across this region for possibly several days
so stay tuned... i will have more updates later tonight
and on monday...


Todd Rasmuson

[Hemorhage]

What's your thinking about the mid-atlantic and northeastern states there Todd? Please let me know!

[Hemorhage]

Reason why I am asking, my 1st winter up here in Virginia was last winter and we had some pretty decent snows. We even had a good dusting for Thanksgiving, but this year we got teased with just a quick 5 minute flurry. Its amazing, I am born and raised around N'Awlins but I likes the snow and I want to see more of it. BTW, I live in Leesburg, VA, about an hour to the west of DC, give or take a few minutes. I miss the snow!

I like it I love it I WANT SOME MORE OF IT!!!!

[toddrasmuson]

honestly havent looked over there but i will post an outlook on there
soon...this attm is top order of business we are looking at poss highs
on sunday in okc of 10-15! highs! dfw metroplex maybe even just 20ish
for the high... iam thinking as of tonight this is looking more and more like
a MAJOR MAJOR ICE STORM... for ks/ok and nc/ne tx for this upcoming weekend... some facts even leading me to think the front may pass earlyer then thought bringing the much colder air in even sooner.. but attm iam
gonna stay with current trend of it clearing oklahoma late fri night and moving
through the dfw metroplex by midday sat... with widespread frz rain region wide by sat night... inches of ice is poss... anyone who knows anyone from wichita to okc to dallas and areas e or w needs to advise them of this poss dangerous situation as it could serriously effect travel, business and other goings on for days in the heartland region of ok/ks and tx... more updates later..

[toddrasmuson]

as seen on my graphic highs for sun expected only in the teens
for the most part across most of ks/ok with temps near 20 in the
nc tx area.. precip amounts and types still way to early to call but
iam still very much expecting a ice storm across this region with
inches of ice... still some questions in the forecast but expect this
to come true when this weekend gets here... so if your within this
region stock up and be prepared for several days of ice and then
first of the next week heavy snow possible.... more updates tomorrow..

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster


5678

[toddrasmuson]

to your question.. for your area just real quick from what i've seen
nothing that looks real great, chance of snow showers mon eve into early
tues morning chances at only about 30% no accums way it looks maybe a dusting... looking down the road a bit towards the 24th, 25th iam seeing a better chance of snow for your region but that far out its to hard to say if it will be alot or how much accums but its def there towards the end of the month...

[Hemorhage]

Thank you Todd for your answering my question. Lord knows I cannot wait till I get to see that snow again!!

[toddrasmuson]

iam thinking for sure poss ice storm for ok/southern ks and nc tx
for late fri through sunday.. again main concern for the forecast
is time that the front arrives within the region becouse if temps
fall quick enough i have no doubt this could be a major major ice storm!!
a quick look at i thought was looking good for monday the 15th - thursday
the 18th latest runs have taken that out of the forecast but next week around jan 22-23rd could see another strong winter storm enter the
central/southern plains also towards end of the month need to watch the
eastern us for poss winter storm... alot of questions still remain but my
main concern at this point is the very very cold that will move into the
plains and the poss precip along with it with the chance of ice...

thats it for tonight but i will have more updates tomorrow on
this possible ice storm that will effect kansas, oklahoma and north central
texas...


Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Will Return To The Southern Plains When An Arctic Air Mass
Arrives On Friday. There Is Potential For Cold Weather And Wintry
Precipitation To Begin In Northwest Oklahoma Early Friday And Spread
To The South And East Throughout The Weekend. Accumulating Ice Or
Snow Is Likely To Occur In At Least Parts Of The Region. The
Specific Locations...precipitation Types...and Amounts Will Become
Better Defined From Mid To Late Week

[toddrasmuson]

same thoughts as rolltide this morning, precip starts early fri morning
in northwestern oklahoma and spreads to the south and east
through out the weekend, accumulating ice and or snow is likely
from ks to central tx.. graphic from lastnight on sun high's will
stand for now but will most likely need some tweaking through out
the week, but non the less expect major cold air this weekend into
early next week!! still also think we are looking at more of a ice storm
then snow storm but again we are still days out and things can change
so as always stay tuned!

Updates later today

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[ROLLTIDE]

Looks the start to a pattern change with a major dumping of air from Canada

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_180.shtml

[toddrasmuson]

5679

While the details are still unclear, it is safe to say that this coming weekend looks unpleasant at best. If you have plans to travel across Oklahoma or any of the surrounding states Friday through next Monday, be prepared for dangerous winter travel conditions... Iam on my way out to get the lights down before friday gets here... over the past hour or so I have looked over some of the latest data and came up with this graphic which is not by any means set in stone but gives an idea of the possible picture we will be looking at come fri,sat sun and even into next mon as shown on the graphic by the two bright pink areas that is where i believe
the heavyest precip could occur now if its ice and or snow or just one or
the other thats the tricky part attm but of course as we go through out
the next hours and days ahead we will fine tune it as the data changes
some and iam sure it will some being this far out... but iam off to get the
lights down before this weekend gets here!! i will post an update at 5 pm
central tonight, so see ya then...

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[DesertBoots]

Keeping fingers crossed up here in Junction City,KS. Had one storm go east and two go west this year. The cold air has trended farther south with recent runs putting us in more snow than ice. Not ready for power outages so am hoping for the white stuff. Would be nice to have my kids do a little sledding before spring.

[ROLLTIDE]

18Z run of the GFS would bring a historic storm to areas of Texas and LA

more later

[ROLLTIDE]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXMAP/GFS/2007010812/gfs10.prp.144.namer.gif

[toddrasmuson]

5680

sorry for running late, in agreement with rolltide this is looking
big anyone who has any doubt look at the 18z run... i know again
with a disclaimer we are days out but hour by hour and day by day
as we get closer its looking bigger and bigger and more like it will
hold true. this in my opinion is the type of storm that could knock
out power for days and days in a large region and thats why iam
saying heads up anywhere from southern ks to central tx and eastward
to sw mo down into la... updated my graphic from earlyer just
a few changes and you can note that for yourself.. iam still going
through some stuff attm reviewing more data and will try having
a better maybe a bit clearer look at this around 10 pm tonight..

also note: the front i believe will punch through the region
much faster then models suggust bringing a longer chance
of frz drizzle, sleet, snow to the region.. that needs to be
watched closely.. i think the front could clear southern
and se ok by fri afternoon and be near dfw fri eve...

more at around 10 pm central

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[ROLLTIDE]

From the SE texas NWS


BY THE 00Z GFS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/gfs.htm) TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
MONDAY WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WHILE OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TX MON
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm). WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/trough.htm)
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MIXED FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WITH LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/cwa.htm). WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS
WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SOME
SLEET WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY FOR NOW. 32
&&

[diablo]

I don't want anymore snow!!! We had 12 inches last time and I absolutely refuse the snow..send it back,,,I won't pay!!

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

[toddrasmuson]

Sorry for the non-post lastnight, just reviewed data
and to me at that time still looking at the same situation
so just would have been another repeat.. i will though have
further details in the next 2-3 hours on this upcoming winter
storm as it enters the southern plains region early friday and
as if thats not enough yes another one for late mon into tues
which could bring possibly more ice and snow to north-central
tx region... still looking at possibly heavy ice accums in areas
and i will have more on this in just a bit with hopefully some new
graphics...

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

The computer models are up to their old tricks of trying to slow down the arctic air headed this way. I don't buy what they are saying. I feel the cold air will come into the region on Friday with falling temperatures and rain. Eventually the rain will become freezing rain and that will last through the day Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday morning we'll see the freezing rain change over to some light snow, but i dont expect much in the way of
snow accums in the region, the main problem will be ICE and possibly lots
of it! At this time I have the front clearing oklahoma by 1-2 pm central time
friday afternoon, moving close to the dallas-fortworth metroplex area by
5-6 pm central time friday eve... at this rate temps will be at, near or below
the 32 degree mark by midnight or a bit there after north of dfw area into
oklahoma, which i expect ongoing precip (which could be frz rain) by that
point.. saying all this here are my main points

(1) fast moving front will surge into north tx by fri eve, bringing
frz rain,sleet by early hrs of saturday..

(2) expect precip to last until atleast sunday afternoon, clearing
western sections by afternoon and the eastern by dark...

(3) all together... i expect inches of ice possible across a large region
its always wise to be ahead of the storm, so yeah i could be wrong
BUT the models do this alot slowing down fronts at the last minute and
it doesnt always hold true, so i just dont buy it... there for iam going
for higher ice totals across most of ok, srn ks, nc tx...

I Will have another update @ 10 for sure tonight
as I look over more data and get a graphics package
together.


Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5681


Looking at the models again I feel they are under cutting the
arrival of the front as they have done in times past of trying
to push it back or stall it. I strongly feel this is not gonna happen
and iam not buying most of the models, therefore i still feel its
gonna surge into the southern plains making very good progress
late thursday into friday and clearing southern ks by late thu night
into early fri, then pushing out of oklahoma by fri afternoon and near
dallas-fortworth by late fri evening as you can see on the graphic

so attm which likely there will be some changes staying put with
past forecast's and will have another update in the morning..

*PLEASE NOTE* The arrival of the front is basically everything
in if it doesnt clear say se ok into n tx until late sat chances
of winter precip will be much less (if the models are correct) which
again i think they are holding the front to far to the north... only
time will tell

I will have updates through out the day tomorrow and first update
should be around 9-9:30 AM Central time..


Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5683
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND START THE WSO FOR THE TALKED
ABOUT EVENT...

LOW RISK FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL, ERN TX, PORTIONS
OF EXTREEM SOUTHERN, SERN OK AND WRN AR...

A MOD RISK FOR PORTIONS OF ERN, NERN TX PANHANDLE, CENTRAL,
NORTHERN, NERN OK AND EXTREEM SW MO AND NW AR...

THE LOW RISK MEANS THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OR LESS CHANCE
OF 'MAJOR' ICE AND OR SNOW ACCUMS OF 2-3" OR GREATER

MOD RISK MEANS 30-40% CHANCE OF 2-3" OR GREATER ICE
AND OR SNOW ACCUMS...

I WILL MORE THEN LIKELY CHANGE THIS SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE
THE WKEND AS MODELS AND THINKING CHANGES NON THE LESS
IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT A FAIRLY MAJOR ICE STORM IS POSS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,NORTHERN, NERN OK... POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TX.. IN PREV DISCUSSIONS I HAVE SAID
I FEEL THE FRONT WILL MAKE ALOT OF PROGRESS BUT STILL QUESTIONS
REMAIN THAT BEING WHY IAM KEEPING POPS LOW FOR TX REGION
FOR TIME BEING...

FURTHER UPDATE ON THIS IN THE MORNING AND WILL UPDATE
THIS GRAPHIC BY 1130 AM CENTRAL 01/10/07

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[ROLLTIDE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUSES ENTIRELY ON THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BOTH DROP FROM ALASKA INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE UPPER LOW WAS ALREADY
ENCROACHING ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH STRONG JET (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/jetstream.htm) FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA CREATING A DEEP 992 MB (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/mb.htm) SURFACE LOW. WITH
THE LEE TROUGH (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/trough.htm) EXTENDING DOWN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE NAM (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/nam.htm)
GRIDDED DATA AND GFS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/gfs.htm) MOS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/mos.htm) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE RUC (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/ruc.htm) IS SUPPORTING THIS TREND. IT WILL BE A
WINDY BUT MILD DAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

OTHERWISE...MOST EFFORT THIS MORNING WAS PUT INTO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES TO BE ON
TRACK...AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) STILL BRING THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THEY HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD MAINTAINING A CLOSED LOW (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/closedlow.htm) IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/trough.htm) AS IT TURNS EAST AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS TREND HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING
DEEP BROAD SCALE LIFT FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND POPS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/pop.htm) WERE
RAISED ACCORDINGLY. POPS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/pop.htm) WERE ALSO RAISED SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) ARE BETTER RESOLVING A SHARP MID LEVEL JET (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/jetstream.htm)
EJECTING FROM BAJA. THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER TO
OVERCOME...BUT GFS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/gfs.htm) AND NAM (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/nam.htm) CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SUFFICIENT
LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-44. ALL OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID...AS THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) IS NOT DUE TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA MAY BE UNDER
SHORTWAVE (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/stwv.htm) RIDGING (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/ridge.htm) ALOFT...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) SWEEPING THROUGH WE MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHALLOW RAIN SHOWERS OR A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...WEAK WARM ADVECTION (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/advection.htm) AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRIDAY ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISSUANCE OF
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOMEWHERE NORTH AND WEST FROM I-44. THE
PERIOD OF GREATER CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVERY LONG RANGE MODEL CONTINUES TO
LOOK UNREALISTIC IN ITS DEPICTION OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm)
THAT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY. BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH SHALLOW
FRIGID AIR MASSES...EXPECT THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) TO GO FARTHER SOUTH ON THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) MAY VERY WELL STALL IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...MAKING FOR SOME EXTREME TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. AS THE WARM ADVECTION (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/advection.htm) CONTINUES
ALOFT...WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN APPEAR LIKELY. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHERE THE HEAVIEST ICING MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS MAY WARRANT A
WINTER STORM WATCH (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/watch.htm) AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

[NDG]

The Euro is finally latching on the very cold air coming down, now the question is where there be any moisture in place across the deep south as the trough lags behind moving eastward from the SW US.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ecmwf_850_temp_1683.gif

[toddrasmuson]

new thoughts from the fast forecast center this
morning are that our first graphic put out the other
day for highs on sunday might not have been to low
after all... teens for HIGHS across much of central,
southern and northern ok for sun-tues.. and highs
in the lower to mid 20s down in northern and central
tx.. this is gonna be a VERY COLD airmass... i still
feel its gonna 'surge' south bringing all the precip
from early sat morning until it ends late sun into mon
as frz rain.. which if it does occur it will as you know
bring a very messy situation to the entire region
and people in this area should be prepared for
hours to days and maybe week without power
as i strongly feel at this point this is gonna be
a widespread ice storm from nrn ok, sc ks to nc
tx and points e from there... into ok i-44 nw
looks like it could go under a 'high risk' for our
wso next advisory and parts of nc tx under a mod
risk upgrade from the last advisory but that is yet
to be decided... also looks like there is gonna be
plenty of moisture to work with the entire peroid
from fri-late sun.. i would put pops on average
in the talked about region between 60-100%..
which again i believe is gonna be mostly all
in the form of frz rain..

More later and of course the wso update
at around 1130 am central


Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5684


WSO
FAST WEATHER

1104 AM CENTRAL 1.10.07

***WINTER STORM OUTLOOK** FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...


*HIGH RISK* FOR THE EXTREEM NE TX PANHANDLE,NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OK...

*MOD RISK* FOR EXTREEM ERN TX PANHANDLE, WRN,SWRN, CENTRAL,
SC AND NE OK.. AND PARTS OF NORTH, NC TX..

*LOW RISK* FOR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE, OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, ERN
NM, CENTRAL, EXTREEM ERN TX, EASTERN OK, SOUTHERN, SW MO
AND WESTERN, CENTRAL ARK AND EXTREEM NW LA...


THOUGHTS AT THIS HR ARE THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A 'MAJOR'
ICE STORM FOR THE CENTRAL,SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION ESP
NC OK TO NORTHERN TX WITH INCHES OF ICE CAUSING
POWER OUTAGES FOR POSSIBLY DAYS TO A WEEK AND CLOSING
MAJOR ROADWAYS.. WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE TWO AREAS
NC AND CENTRAL OK TO HIGH RISK AND NC TX TO MOD RISK
THE SOUTH END MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK AS
WELL IN FURTHER OUTLOOKS.. SOME MODELS NOW SHOWING
SYS MAYBE SLOWING DOWN TOWARDS SUN WHICH WOULD
KEEP CHANCE OF PRECIP (FRZ RAIN) IN THIS SAME REGION
POSS UNTIL MON SOMETIME.. MAKING IT THAT MUCH WORSE...

WE ADVISE PEOPLE WITHIN THE MOD, HIGH RISK AREAS
TO STAY TUNED TO US HERE OR ON A LOCAL TV OR RADIO
OR A NOAA WX RADIO FOR THE VERY LATEST ON THIS POSSIBLE
MAJOR ICE STORM HEADING FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WKEND AND BE PREPARED, STOCK UP ON HOUSE HOLD
ITEMS NEEDED FOR BEING STUCK INSIDE FOR DAYS...

ANOTHER WSO WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT AT AROUND 10 PM
CENTRAL




Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5685
we are in agreement that the front will be nearly out of oklahoma
by 8 pm fri with widespread frz rain behind it and well into central
tx by 11 am sat with very cold air and frz rain starting near dfw
area by that time... things could change but attm its looking like
a 24+ hr event possible of nearly all the precip being frz rain


more updates around 5 pm central and followed by a full update
at 10 tonight with the new wso at that time


Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif

[Race2Beach]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

[toddrasmuson]

Heavy Ice, Light Snow, Very Cold Weather
For The Weekend....


Models Still Offering Diffrent Views On What Is
Going To Take Place From Friday Through Early Next
Week, But Non The Less It Is Expected That Very Cold
Air With High Temps In The Teens And 20s Region Wide
Across The Southern Plains Region Can Be Expected
From Late Friday Through The Mid Part Of Next Week.

How Much Ice, Snow Is Still In Question Due To Model
Conflicts At The Moment, But I Expect Areas Of Inches
Of Ice Esp From Nc Ok Southward Into Parts Of N And Nw
Tx... As Noted On The Wso From Earlyer, May Need To Upgrade
Areas In The Mod Risk Area To High Risk In Later Outlooks..

People Within The Area Of The Mod And High Risk Areas
Should Start Getting Ready Today And Thursday For
This Possible Ice Storm And Stock Up On House Hold Items
Needed Make Sure The Car Has Plenty Of Gas And Is Winter
Prepared, That You Have Plenty Of Daily Stuff That You Need
To Go For Days Without Leaving Your Home As This Possibly
Could Last For Several Days...

Stay With Us Right Here Or Local Tv Or Radio For The Very Latest
Information On This Possible Winter Storm..

Winter Storm Outlook Will Be Updated Tonight At Around 10 Pm
Central Time...


Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[DesertBoots]

Todd, what do you feel will be the main precip type for areas 45 miles due west of Topeka? Freezing rain, sleet, or snow? With how strong this cold air seems to be, I cant see the amounts of freezing rain being advertised for this area to occur. I'm thinking about 7 inches when all said and done.

[toddrasmuson]

5686

Wso
Fast Weather

2204 Pm Central 1.10.07

***winter Storm Outlook** For Friday Through Sunday...

*very High Risk* Extreem Nw Ok, Ern Ok Panhandle, Ne
Tx Panhandle, Extreem Sw Ks

*high Risk* For The Tx, Ok Panhandle,northern And
Central Ok, Nwrn Tx, Southern Ks

*mod Risk* For All Of The Tx Panhandle, Wrn,swrn, Central,
Sc And Ne Ok.. And Parts Of North, Nc Tx..

*low Risk* For Western Tx Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, Ern
Nm, Central, Extreem Ern Tx, Eastern Ok, Southern, Sw Mo
And Western, Central Ark And Extreem Nw La...
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Decided After Looking At More Runs To Upgrade
Extreem Nw Ok, Parts Of The Ok And Tx Panhandles To
A Very High Risk As Well As Parts Of Srn Ks (just Off
Our Coverage Map Area) Also Decided To Upgrade Parts
Of Nw Tx To A High Risk....

Current Thinking Is That Of Pre Talks That System
Is Still On Track For What Looks To Make This A
Major Ice Storm For Parts Of Ks/ok And Tx This
Upcoming Weekend. Persons Esp Within The Very
High, High And Moderate Risk Areas Need To Take
Precautions Now To Protect Life And Property
From This Possibly Deadly Ice Storm...

Further Upgrades May Be Needed In Future Outlooks
Esp Over Wrn,swrn Ok Into Nc Tx... Should Have A
Better Handle On This Whole Situation By This Time
Tomorrow

At This Time There Appears To Be Two Areas Of Concern
# 1 Extreem Nw Ok/ern And Ne Tx Panhandle And Ern Ok Panhandle
Into Sw, Sc Ks.... And The 2nd Area Being Into Sw, Wrn Ok Into Nw
Tx... This Could Change But At This Time These Two Areas Seem
To Be There The Larger Ice Accums Will Be Located


This Is Not In Stone By Any Means So Please Stay Tuned To Us
Or Local Tv Or Radio Or Noaa Weather Radio For The Very Latest
On This Possibly Major Ice Storm For 2007 And The Coldest Air
In Our Region In Years...

Further Updates Through Out The Day Tomorrow And
The Next Winter Storm Outlook Will Be Issued By 1030 Am
Central Time On Thursday...


Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

Frz Rain/sleet... Light To Mod Snow... Mostly Frz Rain/sleet
Thats Just A Quick Look I'm Mostly On Ok And Tx Forecast
But I Think Regional Wide Its Gonna Be A Major Ice Storm Event..
I Could Wind Up Being Wrong But All Signs Point That Way And
If You Do The Figures By Surgeing The Front Down Quicker Then
The Models It All Adds Up I Just Dont Buy The Models Hanging The
Front And Or Slowing It Down... But For The Answer I Say Mostly
Frz Rain/sleet In Your Region.. But Time Will Tell Tomorrow We Should All Have A Better Idea On This...

[toddrasmuson]

000
Fxus64 Koun 110353
Afdoun

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman Ok
953 Pm Cst Wed Jan 10 2007

.update...
Focus Tonight Is On The Impending Arctic Outbreak And Ice Storm
Potential. Earlier Plan Was To Go With The 18z Nam12 Grids But
Move Them Forward About 6 Hours Thu Night Through Sat To Account
For An Expected Faster/stronger Arctic Intrusion. Should Have Just
Waited For The 0z Run... Which Is Nearly 24 Hrs Faster Than What
We Were Looking At On Yesterday`s 18z Run And Even Faster Than Our
Modified 18z Run. Current Plunge Of Cold Air Through Mt And The
Dakotas - Along With A Persisting Trend Of The Models To Speed Up
The Front - Are Strong Indications That Even The Fastest Of The
Current Model Runs Are Apt To Be Too Slow. Would Not Be Surprised
To See The Front To Near Or Se Of I-44 In Central/sw Ok Before
Daybreak Friday. With This In Mind... Sfc Temps In The Model
Grids Are Likely Too Warm Friday Afternoon-night And The Sfc
Freezing Line Will Be Farther S/se Than Currently Advertized.
Newly-arrived Met Mos Indicates Fropa At Okc By Or Around 12z
Fri... And Temps Falling To Below 32 By 21z. This Is A Serious
Concern Given The Model Qpf... Which Spreads Widespread 0.5 To 1
Inch Amounts E/ne Across A Wide Swath Through The Middle Of The
Cwa During The Day. Nam Qpf Has Good Support From The Ngm. 00z Gfs
Not Yet In. Nam Also Intcates A Second Round Of Significant Precip
Streaking Ne Across Much The Same Area Late Sat Night.

Bottom Line Is Turning Colder Faster Thu Night Into Fri... And
Freezing Precip Is Imminent. Details Remain Uncertain Regarding
Timing/location And Specific Amounts... But Freezing Rain Looks By
Far To Be The Primary Winter Precip Type. The Potential Exists For
A Significant Ice Storm Over Parts Of The Area Beginning As Early As
Friday And Continuing As Multiple Waves Into Saturday Night. Winter
Storm Watches Will Likely Be Needed As Early As The Early-morning
Package Tomorrow Morning... Most Likely Near And/or N Of The I-44
Corridor.

&&

$$

24/06

[toddrasmuson]

5687

As Noted On The Graphic Have Put The Front Way Ahead
Of Models As We Feel As Nws Oun This Front Will Surge
S As It Makes Its Way Into Ok... Passing Okc Before Daybreak
Fri And Dfw By Midday Or Shortly There After.. Bringing
Wide Spread Regional Ice Problems By Fri Night From Nc Ok
To N Tx... But It Seems What Ive Been Talking About All Along
May Hold True And This Folks Could Be A Major Major Ice
Storm With The First Round Of Ice Fri Eve And Then A Couple
More Rounds During The Day Sat Into Sat Night...


More On This In The Morning

Note: Oun Is It Seems Is Gonna Issue A Winter Storm Watch
From Law To Okc Northwest In The Morning Package...

Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5689



Outline Of General Area Of Poss Winter Storm Watch To Be
Issued Soon... Oun Is Going To Issue It For There Entire Cwa
Except Atoka,bryan Counties In Far Se Ok...

[toddrasmuson]

5690

Special Edition Of Winter Storm Outlook***


***major Major Ice Storm Expected Over Parts Of Oklahoma,
Northern, Nwern Tx For This Upcoming Weekend***


Very High Risk For Parts Of Swrn, Sc, Central Ok And Nw
And Northern Tx.... Ice Accums Within This Area Could
Be Higher Then 2 Inches... Persons Within This Area Need
To Prepare Today And Early Tomorrow Before The System
Arrives And Be Prepared To Be Without Power Several Hrs
To Several Days To Possibly A Week... As This Could Be The
Worst Ice Storm In This Region In Years, Bringing With It
Some Of The Coldest Air In Years Also With It...

A Further More Detailed Winter Storm Outlook Will Be Issued
By 230 Today Central Time...


If Your In The Winter Storm Watch Area Or Very High,high Or Moderate Risk Areas Please Stay Tuned To Us Or Local Tv Or Radio
For The Very Latest On This Major Ice Storm For This Upcoming
Weekend...

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Norman Ok
509 Am Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

...major Ice Storm Possible This Weekend...

.arctic Air...gulf Moisture Aloft...and A Strong Upper Level Storm
Will Combine To Produce Treacherous Winter Weather Conditions Over
The Southern Plains This Weekend.

Okz004>047-050-051-txz083>090-112200-
/o.new.koun.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0000z/
Harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield-
Noble-roger Mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-
Beckham-washita-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-
Cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-
Tillman-comanche-stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-cotton-
Jefferson-carter-johnston-love-marshall-hardeman-foard-wilbarger-
Wichita-knox-baylor-archer-clay-
Including The Cities Of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford...
Ponca City...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry ...
Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watong a...
Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...elk City...sayre...cordell...
Anadarko...yukon...el Reno...mustang...oklahoma City...chandler...
Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole...
Holdenville...hollis...mangum...hobart...altus...f rederick...
Lawton...duncan...pauls Valley...sulphur...ada...coalgate...
Walters...waurika...ardmore...tishomingo...mariett a...madill...
Quanah...chillicothe...crowell...vernon...wichita Falls...
Munday...knox City...seymour...archer City...holliday...
Lakeside City...henrietta
509 Am Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

...winter Storm Watch In Effect From Friday Afternoon Through
Sunday Afternoon...

The National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued A Winter Storm
Watch...which Is In Effect From Friday Afternoon Through Sunday
Afternoon.

.temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing Rapidly On Friday Into
Friday Evening...at The Same Time That Moisture Increases Ahead Of
An Upper Level Storm. Although Sleet And Snow Will Be
Possible...most Of The Precipitation Will Fall As Light And
Occasionally Moderate Freezing Rain. Conditions Will Deteriorate
In Western North Texas Through Southern And Central Oklahoma As
Early As Friday Afternoon...lasting Through Friday Night. Lighter
Freezing Drizzle Is Expected In Northern And Western
Oklahoma During This Time...but Precipitation Will Become Heavier
Across The Entire Region Again Saturday Night Into Sunday As The
Main Upper Storm Comes Through The Area.

By Sunday Evening...ice Accumulations May Range From A Quarter
Inch To Well Over One Inch. At This Time...the Heaviest
Accumulations Appear Likely Along And South Of The Interstate 44
Corridor From Wichita Falls Through Oklahoma City...including A
Large Part Of Southern Oklahoma.

Gusty Winds Will Also Bring Bitterly Cold Wind Chills And The
Possibility For Downed Trees And Power Lines...leading To Power
Outages.

This Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant
Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel And Power. Continue To
Monitor The Latest Forecasts.

$$

[toddrasmuson]

The risk of a significant ice storm continues to increase. Freezing temperatures will reach I-44 (including the okc metro area) by approximately 8 to 9 a.m tomorrow morning! I believe attm it would be wise on nws fwd
to issue a winter storm watch for the dfw metroplex as this front is gonna
surge south and the dallas-fortworth metroplex looks to also be a target by
early to midday sat into sunday eve with a inch or so of ice poss in the dfw
area... heavyest appears like it will be either side of i-44 n or s in ok.. from lawton to okc either side with areas of 2+ inches of ice...


I will have more through out the afternoon its gonna be a long
one this is gonna be a MAJOR MAJOR weather event no doubts
about it for portions of ok and tx with likely regional wide power outages
and down trees being a big concern by sun...

WSO WILL BE ISSUED BY 230 CENTRAL

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5691

Nws In Norman Has Issued A ***ice Storm Warning*** For Parts
Of Oklahoma And Northwestern Tx From Fri Eve Until Sun Eve...
Ice Accums Of Up To 1 1/2 Inches Are Poss In The Warned Area
Text On Official Warning Below...

Note: *fws* Has Not Issued A Winter Storm Watch Its Not Official
Yet But I Just Put It In The Graphic For Western Parts Of Dfw
Area And Areas Just N Of Dfw Metro Area Becouse I Feel They Will
Get In On This Ice Situation As Well...



Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Norman Ok
205 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

...major Ice Storm Likely This Weekend...

.arctic Air...gulf Moisture Aloft...and A Strong Upper Level
Storm Will Combine To Produce Treacherous Winter Weather
Conditions Over The Southern Plains This Weekend. Temperatures
Will Fall Below Freezing Rapidly On Friday Into Friday
Evening...at The Same Time That Moisture Increases Ahead Of An
Upper Level Storm. Although Sleet And Snow Will Be Possible...most
Of The Precipitation Will Fall As Light And Occasionally Moderate
Freezing Rain. Conditions Will Deteriorate Initially In Northwest
Oklahoma Friday Morning As Freezing Drizzle Or Light Freezing Rain
Develops. While Across Western North Texas Through Southern And
Central Oklahoma Conditions Will Begin To Deteriorate As Early As
Friday Evening. Precipitation Will Become Heavier Across The
Region Again Saturday Night Into Sunday As The Main Upper Storm
Comes Through The Area.

Okz008-013-018>042-044>046-txz083>090-120515-
/o.upg.koun.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0000z/
/o.new.koun.is.w.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/
Kay-noble-kingfisher-logan-payne-beckham-washita-caddo-canadian-
Oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-
Hughes-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-tillman-comanche-stephens-
Garvin-murray-pontotoc-cotton-jefferson-carter-hardeman-foard-
Wilbarger-wichita-knox-baylor-archer-clay-
Including The Cities Of...ponca City...perry...kingfisher...
Guthrie...stillwater...elk City...sayre...cordell...anadarko...
Yukon...el Reno...mustang...oklahoma City...chandler...
Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole...
Holdenville...hollis...mangum...hobart...altus...f rederick...
Lawton...duncan...pauls Valley...sulphur...ada...walters...
Waurika...ardmore...quanah...chillicothe...crowell ...vernon...
Wichita Falls...munday...knox City...seymour...archer City...
Holliday...lakeside City...henrietta
205 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

...ice Storm Warning In Effect From 6 Pm Friday To 6 Pm Cst
Sunday...

The National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued An Ice Storm
Warning...from 6 Pm Friday To 6 Pm Cst Sunday.

.periods Of Freezing Rain Will Occur Beginning Friday Night
And Continuing Through Sunday. Heavier Precipitation Will Likely
Occur Friday Night With Another Round Expected Saturday Evening
Into Sunday Morning. Sleet May Mix With Freezing Rain On Sunday
Before The Precipitation Ends.

Ice Accumulations Of One Half Inch To One And A Half Inches Are
Expected With The Most Significant Accumulations Expected To
Extend Along The Interstate 44 Corridor. Ice Accumulations And
Winds Will Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree
Branches. This May Result In Extended Power Outages In Some Areas.


An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are
Expected. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make
Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged.
Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must
Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your
Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency.

$$

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Norman Ok 205 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007


..major Ice Storm Likely This Weekend Arctic Air...gulf Moisture Aloft And A Strong Upper Level Storm Will Combine To Produce Treacherous Winter Weather Conditions Over The Southern Plains This Weekend. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing Rapidly On Friday Into Friday Evening



...at The Same Time That Moisture Increases Ahead Of An Upper Level Storm. Although Sleet And Snow Will Be Possible


...most Of The Precipitation Will Fall As Light And Occasionally Moderate Freezing Rain. Conditions Will Deteriorate Initially In Northwest Oklahoma Friday Morning As Freezing Drizzle Or Light Freezing Rain Develops. While Across Western North Texas Through Southern And Central Oklahoma Conditions Will Begin To Deteriorate As Early As Friday Evening. Precipitation Will Become Heavier Across The Region Again Saturday Night Into Sunday As The Main Upper Storm Comes Through The Area.



Okz004>007-009>012-014>017-120515- /o.upg.koun.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0000z/ /o.new.koun.zr.y.0001.070112t1200z-070113t0000z/ /o.new.koun.is.w.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/


Harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-ellis-woodward-major-garfield- Roger Mills-dewey-custer-blaine-


Including The Cities Of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford... Arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...cheyenne...t aloga... Weatherford...clinton...watonga 205 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007




...ice Storm Warning In Effect From 6 Pm Friday To 6 Pm Cst Sunday...


...freezing Rain Advisory In Effect From 6 Am To 6 Pm Cst Friday...



He National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued A Freezing Rain Advisory...in Effect From 6 Am To 6 Pm Friday. An Ice Storm Warning Is In Effect From 6 Pm Friday To 6 Pm Cst Sunday.


.precipitation Will Likely Begin As Light Freezing Drizzle During The Day Friday... Which May Cause Icing Of Elevated Surfaces Such As Bridges And Overpasses... As Well As Utility Lines.


Periods Of Heavier Precipitation Will Occur From Late Friday Night Into Sunday... Mainly In The Form Of Freezing Rain. However... Freezing Rain May Mix With Sleet Late Saturday Night Into Sunday As The Upper Storm System Moves Into The Area. Widespread Ice Accumulations Of A Quarter To Half An Inch Are Expected. Bitterly Cold Wind Chills Will Likely Begin Friday Night Across Northwest Oklahoma... And Continue Through The Weekend.



An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That Add To The Danger. A Freezing Rain Advisory Means That Periods Of Freezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Slippery Roads. Slow Down And Use Caution While Driving. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------







Okz008-013-018>042-044>046-txz083>090-120515- /o.upg.koun.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0000z/ /o.new.koun.is.w.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/







Kay-noble-kingfisher-logan-payne-beckham-washita-caddo-canadian- Oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole- Hughes-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-tillman-comanche-stephens- Garvin-murray-pontotoc-cotton-jefferson-carter-hardeman-foard- Wilbarger-wichita-knox-baylor-archer-clay- Including The Cities Of...ponca City...perry...kingfisher... Guthrie...stillwater...elk City...sayre...cordell...anadarko... Yukon...el Reno...mustang...oklahoma City...chandler... Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole... Holdenville...hollis...mangum...hobart...altus...f rederick... Lawton...duncan...pauls Valley...sulphur...ada...walters... Waurika...ardmore...quanah...chillicothe...crowell ...vernon... Wichita Falls...munday...knox City...seymour...archer City... Holliday...lakeside City...henrietta



205 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007



...ice Storm Warning In Effect From 6 Pm Friday To 6 Pm Cst Sunday...




The National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued An Ice Storm Warning...


From 6 Pm Friday To 6 Pm Cst Sunday.



.periods Of Freezing Rain Will Occur Beginning Friday Night And Continuing Through Sunday. Heavier Precipitation Will Likely Occur Friday Night With Another Round Expected Saturday Evening Into Sunday Morning. Sleet May Mix With Freezing Rain On Sunday Before The Precipitation Ends.


Ice Accumulations Of One Half Inch To One And A Half Inches Are Expected With The Most Significant Accumulations Expected To Extend Along The Interstate 44 Corridor. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches. This May Result In Extended Power Outages In Some Areas.




An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency.



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okz043-047-050-051-120515- /o.ext.koun.ws.a.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/

Coal-johnston-love-marshall-


Including The Cities Of...coalgate...tishomingo...marietta... Madill


205 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007



...winter Storm Watch Now In Effect From Friday Evening Through Sunday Afternoon... The Winter Storm Watch Is Now In Effect From Friday Evening Through Sunday Afternoon. A Cold Front Will Move Through The Area Friday Night Causing Temperatures To Fall. Widespread Rain Will Occur Across The Area Friday Into Saturday. However... Temperatures May Fall To Near Or Just Below Freezing Saturday... Leading To Freezing Rain Saturday Into Sunday. Ice Accumulations Could Occur If Temperatures Drop Below Freezing Before The Precipitation Ends. This Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel And Power. Continue To Monitor The Latest Forecasts.

[toddrasmuson]

5692


Further Info Read Above **ice Storm Warning***

Decided To Stay With Very High Risk From Prev Wso
As This Seems Like It Is Gonna Turn Into A Major Ice
Storm Event Over A Large Area Of Ok Into Nwrn, N Tx
From Fri Through Sun...

[ROLLTIDE]

SE Texas

L.King Day: A slight chance of sleet or rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[toddrasmuson]

Fxus64 Kfwd 112105
Afdfwd

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx
306 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007


...winter Weather Watch Issued For The Northwest Quarter Saturday
Night Through Sunday...

.discussion...
Very Interesting...but Complete Forecast Today. Several Arctic
Fronts Are Stacked Up To Our North. The 1st Front Is Already In
Southern Kansas With Temps In The 30s...20s And Teens. A 2nd Front
Is Located Across Central Wyoming And South Dakota With Temps In The
Single Digits And Negative Numbers. The 1st Front Arrives The Nw Cwa
Friday Afternoon And Clears The Se Cwa Saturday Afternoon Late. The
2nd Front Will Push Trough Sunday As The Upper Trough Moves Across
The State.

Strong Low Level Waa On 40-50 Kts Over The Next 48 Hours Under
Intense Jet Dynamics And Rre Jet Aloft Will Produce Strong
Convection With Heavy Rainfall Potential Friday Night Through
Saturday. Amounts Over One Inch Are Expected And Could Lead To Local
Flooding. However...the Nam Model Is Not As Wet As The Gfs
Series...and For This Reasoning...we Decided To Hold Off Issuing A
Flash Flood Watch Until A Later Shift.

Now For The Good Stuff...
Cold...but Shallow Arctic Air Will Overtake The Cwa Saturday With
Sub-freezing Temps Expected Over The Northwest Quarter. A Winter
Watch Will Be Issued Northwest Of An Eastland To Gainesville For Up
To 1/4 Inch Of Freezing Rain Saturday Evening Through Sunday
Afternoon. Later Model Runs May Push This Line Further Southeast And
Into Or Through The Metroplex...but For Now This Is Our Best Guess.
Also The 1/4 Inch Of Ice May Increase Too...thus Pushing The
Northwest Third Into An Ice Storm Warning. We Will Re-evaluate This
Scenario Overnight And Tomorrow.

The Second Surge Of Arctic Air Cold Comes In Sunday With Very Cold
Temps Lingering Across North Texas All Of Next Week. Overnight Lows
Will Be In The Teens To Mid 20s Tuesday And Wednesday.. Highs Will
Be In The 30s And 40s Monday Through Wednesday. Rain Chances Will
End Over The Southeast Counties By Monday Morning.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Tx 59 66 47 48 34 / 30 60 80 80 70
Waco, Tx 60 69 58 58 48 / 30 40 60 80 60
Paris, Tx 56 65 49 50 36 / 30 60 80 80 70
Denton, Tx 58 65 43 44 32 / 30 60 80 70 70
Mckinney, Tx 57 66 48 49 35 / 30 60 80 80 70
Dallas, Tx 59 66 48 50 35 / 30 60 80 80 70
Terrell, Tx 58 67 52 53 39 / 30 50 80 80 70
Corsicana, Tx 59 68 58 59 48 / 30 40 60 70 60
Temple, Tx 61 70 61 62 53 / 30 40 50 70 60

&&

.fwd Watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Storm Watch From Saturday Evening Through Sunday
Afternoon For The Following Zones:
Txz091-092-100>102-115-116-129.

&&

$$

21/75

[Race2Beach]

Get Ready For A Significant Winter Storm...

A Major Winter Storm Promises To Bring Significant Accumulations Of
Ice To Many Places Across The Southern Plains States Over The Next
Couple Of Days. Now Is The Time To Make Sure You Are Ready To Deal
With The Upcoming Severe Winter Weather.




Some Locations Will Likely Experience Power Outages As Trees And
Power Lines Go Down Under The Weight Of The Ice. You Might Also Lose
Telephone And Water Services. You Should Have An Emergency Supply
Kit In Your Home That Will Allow You And Everyone In Your Home To Be
Totally Self Sufficient For Several Days. The Kit Should Include
Plenty Of Food And Water...including Food That Does Not Require
Cooking. You Will Also Need Flashlights And Batteries...medical
Supplies...supplies And Food For Infants...pets And Anyone Requiring
Special Items...and A Battery Operated Radio Or Television. You
Should Also Think About How You Will Keep Warm Should You Lose Power
For An Extended Period Of Time.



If You Have Travel Plans...you Need To Keep Up To Date With The
Latest Forecasts And Information. You May Consider Changing Or Even
Canceling Your Plans To Avoid Being Caught On The Road Or Away From
Home For An Extended Period Of Time. This Storm May Cause
Significant Travel Problems...and May Impact Not Only Travel On
Roads...but Also Air Travel. Check The Weather For Where You
Are...where You Plan To Go And Everyone In Between.



If You Must Drive...make Sure Your Vehicle Is Ready For Winter
Travel And Stock It Up With Winter Weather Supplies To Help You
Survive Should You Become Stranded. Your Vehicle Supply Kit Should
Include Items Like Flashlights And Batteries...jumper Cables...a
Battery Operated Radio...snow Brushes And Ice Scrapers...de-icer...a
Knife...first Aid Kit...blankets...and Change Of Clothing...gloves
And Hats...a Fully Charged Cell Phone...a Shovel...and Sand Or Other
Material To Help With Traction. If You Must Travel...make Sure You
Let Someone Know Your Plans...including When You`re Leaving...when
You Plan To Arrive And The Route You Plan To Take. Make Sure Your
Vehicle Is In Good Working Order. Check Your Antifreeze And
Windshield Washer Fluid...as Well As Your Wiper Blades. Fill Your
Gas Tank...and Make Sure All Your Lights Are Working.




Some Other Tips...

...keep Your Cell Phone Fully Charged

...top Off Your Gas Tank And Be Sure You Have Cash On Hand

...make Sure You Have An Adequate Supply Of Medications

...take Your Ice Scraper And De-icer Inside With You. Don`t Leave
Them In Your Vehicle...as They May Be Impossible To Get To If Your
Car Is Covered With Ice

[DesertBoots]

We are now under a winter storm watch, primarily for saturday night into sunday night. They still have me inbetween hazards. First ice(up to 1/4 inch) and then up to 7 inches of snow. I really feel that a lot of mets up here in KS are downplaying the moisture that will be available especially after the cold air becomes entrenched at all levels. Not sure on ice totals...thinking more sleet than anything else. As far as snow, there is a lot of mention of 15:1 and 20:1 ratios. With about .75 total precip painted for us am thinking about 10 inches w/locally 12 as system turns out stronger than currently believed.

Really starting to look nasty from witchita south and east. This looks to make the Nov storm mild in comparison.

[toddrasmuson]

No Changes Attm... Same Thing Basically... If You Havent
Done It By Now And Your In The Ice Storm Warning Or Winter
Storm Watch, Go To The Store And Stock Up Big Time Tonight
Becouse Tomorrow It Will Likely Be To Late!! Iam Thinking
It Could Clear Okc Metro Area As Early As Midnight Tonight
Its Making Good Progress Rightnow Through Nw Ok.. And Possibly
Near Dfw Area By Midday On Friday...

Dont Buy Into The Models Bringing Temps Back Up During The Peroid
With This Its True Artic Air Once It Gets To 32 Degrees It Will
Stay There...

This Could Turn Into A Major Ice Storm From Wichita To Dallas
And Everywhere In Between!

More Details Through Out The Eve
And A New Wso Coming Up Around 10 Central Tonight


Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[DesertBoots]

Just now starting to mention up to .50+ of ice for us by our locals...must be siding with the further north scenario? Went to the store and found me a kerosene heater and 6 bottles of kerosene. Cashier asked me if I was going camping in the nice weather(was in the 60's at the time). A lot of people have no clue of this storm coming or dont believe it with all the recent misses. I hope people are taking it a little more seriously south of here. Already mentioning the havoc the winds will play with a half inch of ice for us. Imagine 2-3 inches of ice on your trees with 30mph winds!!! :eek:

[Race2Beach]

Texas/oklahoma Panhandles Hazardous Weather Outlook...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Tx
820 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

Okz001>003-txz001>020-121200-
Armstrong-beaver-carson-cimarron-collingsworth-dallam-deaf Smith-
Donley-gray-hansford-hartley-hemphill-hutchinson-lipscomb-moore-
Ochiltree-oldham-potter-randall-roberts-sherman-texas-wheeler-
820 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For The Texas And Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.day One...

Areas Of Light Freezing Drizzle And Patchy Fog May Develop Tonight
Across The Oklahoma Panhandle And The Northern Texas Panhandle Behind
A Strong Cold Front.

.days Two Through Seven...

Freezing Rain And Sleet Along With Some Snow Will Be Possible
Friday Night Through Sunday Morning Across The Oklahoma And Texas
Panhandles As A Strong Upper Level Low Pressure System Moves Across
The Central And Southern Plains. As A Result...a Winter Storm Watch
Is In Effect For All Of The Oklahoma And Texas Panhandles From Friday
Evening Through Sunday Morning...with Ice Accumulations Between One
Quarter And One Half Of An Inch Expected Across Several Locations In
The Oklahoma And Texas Panhandles. In Addition...wind Chill Values
Below Zero Are Likely Both Sunday And Monday Mornings.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/graphicast.jpg

[toddrasmuson]

ITS POSS.. IAM WATCHING IT VERY CLOSE AS THE FRONT IS
MAKING FAIRLY GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS NWRN OK CURRENTLY
ON A LINE FROM Cheyenne, to Seiling, to Enid, to Blackwell
STRONGLY FEEL IT COULD ARRIVE IN OKC METRO AREA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... A FRZ RAIN OR FRZ DRIZZLE
COULD BE ON GOING BY THE MORNING DRIVE IN THE OKC METRO

MORE IN JUST A BIT

TODD RASMUSON

[toddrasmuson]

5693

Temps Are Not Having A Hard Time Dropping Behind
The Front.. So I Dont Think Getting To The Frz Point
Anywhere Ahead Of The Front Will Be Much Of An Issue
At This Point... - Todd

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service St Louis Mo 906 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007


..significant Ice Accumulations Possible This Weekend .an Arctic Cold Front Will Move Southeast Across The Region On Friday Bringing An End To The Unseasonably Mild Weather. A Series Of Storm Systems Will Move Across Missouri And Illinois This Weekend...causing An Extended Period Of Widespread Precipitation. The Temperature Profile In The Atmosphere Will Favor Freezing Rain That Will Be Capable Of Producing Significant Ice Accumulations During The Weekend.



Ilz095-moz018-019-026-027-034-035-041-042-047-048-050-121515- /o.con.klsx.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0600z/ Adams Il-knox-lewis-shelby-marion-monroe-ralls-boone-audrain- Moniteau-cole-callaway-


Including The Cities Of...quincy...hannibal...columbia...mexico... Jefferson City


906 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007 ...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Friday Afternoon Through Sunday Evening... A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Friday Afternoon Through Sunday Evening. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing During The Late Morning And Early Afternoon Hours On Friday Which Will Cause The Rain To Transition Over To Freezing Rain. Periods Of Freezing Rain... Possibly Mixed With Sleet At Times...will Continue Throughout The Weekend. Significant Ice Accumulations Are Possible. A Winter Storm Watch Is Advanced Notice That Severe Winter Weather Is Possible In The Watch Area...it Does Not Mean It Is A Certainty. Those In The Watch Area Should Begin Preparing In Case The Storm Does Materialize. If You Have Travel Planned...you May Want To Adjust Your Travel Time To Avoid The Storm. Also...you Should Use This Advanced Notice To Make Certain Your Vehicle Is Winterized. Make Preparations At Home By Stocking Emergency Supplies...such As Food...medicine...and Extra Heating Fuel... Just In Case The Storm Makes Travel Impossible. This Is Especially Important For Those Living In Rural Areas. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ilz096-097-moz036-049-051-052-059-060-121515- /o.con.klsx.ws.a.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0600z/ Brown Il-pike Il-pike-osage-montgomery-lincoln-gasconade-warren- Including The City Of...bowling Green 906 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007 ...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Friday Evening Through Sunday Evening... A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Friday Evening Through Sunday Evening. Temperatures Will Drop Below Freezing Friday Evening Which Will Cause The Rain To Transition Over To Freezing Rain. Periods Of Freezing Rain...possibly Mixed With Sleet At Times...will Continue Throughout The Weekend. Significant Ice Accumulations Are Possible. A Winter Storm Watch Is Advanced Notice That Severe Winter Weather Is Possible In The Watch Area...it Does Not Mean It Is A Certainty. Those In The Watch Area Should Begin Preparing In Case The Storm Does Materialize. If You Have Travel Planned...you May Want To Adjust Your Travel Time To Avoid The Storm. Also...you Should Use This Advanced Notice To Make Certain Your Vehicle Is Winterized. Make Preparations At Home By Stocking Emergency Supplies...such As Food...medicine...and Extra Heating Fuel... Just In Case The Storm Makes Travel Impossible. This Is Especially Important For Those Living In Rural Areas. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ilz058>060-098>102-moz061>065-072-073-121515- /o.con.klsx.ws.a.0001.070113t0600z-070115t0600z/ Greene Il-macoupin Il-montgomery Il-calhoun Il-jersey Il- Madison Il-st. Clair Il-monroe Il-st. Charles-franklin-st. Louis- St. Louis City-jefferson-crawford-washington- Including The Cities Of...litchfield...edwardsville... Belleville...st Charles...union...st Louis 906 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007 ...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Late Friday Night Through Sunday Evening... A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Late Friday Night Through Sunday Evening. Temperatures Will Slowly Drop Below Freezing After Midnight On Friday Night Which Will Cause Rain To Transition Over To Freezing Rain. A Series Of Storm Systems Will Move Across The Region Over The Weekend...causing Periods Of Freezing Rain Or Rain. Some Of Significant Ice Accumulations Are Possible. A Winter Storm Watch Is Advanced Notice That Severe Winter Weather Is Possible In The Watch Area...it Does Not Mean It Is A Certainty. Those In The Watch Area Should Begin Preparing In Case The Storm Does Materialize. If You Have Travel Planned...you May Want To Adjust Your Travel Time To Avoid The Storm. Also...you Should Use This Advanced Notice To Make Certain Your Vehicle Is Winterized. Make Preparations At Home By Stocking Emergency Supplies...such As Food...medicine...and Extra Heating Fuel... Just In Case The Storm Makes Travel Impossible. This Is Especially Important For Those Living In Rural Areas.

[toddrasmuson]

5694

[DesertBoots]

It is now below the freezing mark here at 30 with a 10mph N wind...just waiting on the moisture now.:energetic

[toddrasmuson]

***seems Like Oun Thinking Far Se Ok May Need To Be Upgraded
As Well To Ice Storm Warning Sometime Later*** Which Iam Thinking Fws Will Need To Put Dfw Area As Well In A Ice Storm Warning.. Current Thinking Is About 2 To 2 1/2" Of Ice Across Central Ok Into Southern Ok... Ern Ok Into N Tx Could Get Between
1 To 1 1/2" By Late Sunday Eve... More Later - Todd

Fxus64 Koun 120344
Afdoun

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman Ok
944 Pm Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

.update...
Cold Front Is Beginning To Push Across North Central And West
Central Parts Of The State. Have Pushed Cold Front Passage Farther
South Than Afternoon Package. Overall Headlines Look Ok At This
Time. Latest Wrf-nam Suggest That Ice Accumulations Through
Saturday Afternoon May Be On The Lighter Side...but As Main System
Approaches Saturday Night Into Sunday...heavy Accumulations Of Ice
Will Be More Likely. There Is Also The Possibility That The Remainder
Of The Fa Will Need To Be Included In The Ice Storm Warning.

&&

.short Term...6

.long Term...24

[toddrasmuson]

main action might be delayed until sat afternoon lasting until sun eve
but non the less i still expect fairly high ice accums... gonna hold off on
wso package for tonight until early morning hrs until we get a better hold
on the situation... non the less everything is still the same just as oun address above in their disc it may be lighter ice up until sat afternoon
when storm sys approaches the region... anyone with further opinions feel
free to give them and i will take them into account on the graphics package
for the morning but i still strongly feel same area that is under a very high risk now in our winter storm outlook and likely we will stay with that in the
morning outlook...

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

Front Will Be In Far Southern Ok By Sunrise
And Near Dfw By Midday Fri


****bulliten****
Major Metro Areas Could Be Without Power For Days
And Temps For Highs In The Low 20s As Far South
As Dfw Area Possible....



We Are Gonna Go Out On Where Some Are Afraid Tonight
Becouse I'm Just Doing It Out Of The Honest Opinions
This Could Be A Major Major Major Ice Storm From Wichita
To Okc To Dallas And South From There... I Strongly Feel
The Very Cold Temps Wont Have A Prob Getting Past The
Ok/tx Border... All The Precip That Nws Has Forecast
At This Point I Feel Will Fall As Frz Rain During The Day
Sat... And *not* Start Late Sat Or Early Sun As The
Current Forecast Has It. If This Comes True This Will
Be A Dangerous, Costly And Possibly Deadly Event...

Not Trying To 'hype' The Event But Be Honest And Fourth
Right About What Could Happen..

I Should Have A Handle On This By Morning Iam Fixing To
Head Out Of The Office For Tonight, We Have Decided
Again To Not To Go With A Winter Storm Outlook For
Tonight But Stand By The Previous Issued One From
This Morning Until Tomorrow Morning When We
Can Get A Better Look And Feel On This Entire Situation..

Updates Early In The Morning

Todd

[toddrasmuson]

5695
Live Double Doppler With Temps A Few Showers
Trying To Go Up Over In Ern And Ne Ok.. Looking For
More To Go Up Through Out The Morning As The Front
Pushes Into Southcentral Ok.. It Should Be On A Line
From Holdenville To Ada To Sulphur To Waurkia To
Wichita Falls Line By Sunrise This Morning... And As
I Have Expected In And Near The Dfw Metroplex By
Midday Today...

I'm Gonna Issue An Outline Shortly For New
Ice Storm Warning Which Will Replace Winter
Storm Watch In Far Se Ok And Will Be Issued
Also For Northern Tx Including The Dfw Metro Area..

Note: It Isnt Official Yet But Its How Myself and the FAST
Stormteam Feels This Is Gonna Unfold.. Front
Is Moving To Fast And It Is Needed For Risk Of
Major Ice Accums By Sun Eve...

[toddrasmuson]

5696

THE REST OF THIS MAP REFLECTS CURRENT ONGOING WATCHES
WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORYS POSTED BY THE NWS...

I HAVE ADDED N TX AND PARTS OF SE OK TO THE ICE STORM WARN
AND PUT SECTIONS E OF DFW UNDER WINTER STORM WATCH AS WELL
AS EXTREEM SE SECTION OF OK...

LAST UPDATE FOR THE NIGHT.. BACK UP FIRST THING IN THE MORNING..

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[Race2Beach]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx
411 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

Txz091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131200-



Montague-cooke-grayson-fannin-lamar-young-jack-wise-denton-collin-
Hunt-delta-hopkins-stephens-palo Pinto-parker-tarrant-dallas-
Rockwall-kaufman-van Zandt-rains-eastland-erath-hood-somervell-
Johnson-ellis-henderson-comanche-mills-hamilton-bosque-hill-
Navarro-freestone-anderson-lampasas-coryell-bell-mclennan-falls-
Limestone-leon-milam-robertson-


411 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007



This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For North Texas.



.day One...today And Tonight




An Ice Storm Warning Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight Through
600 Pm Sunday For The Northwest Part Of The Region...generally
Northwest Of An Eastland...weatherford...decatur...gainesville
Line. Freezing Rain Will Begin In The Warning Area After Midnight
Tonight With Ice Expected To Begin Accumulating On Bridges...
Overpasses...trees And Power Lines Before Morning.

There Is A Chance Of Thunderstorms Over All Of North Texas Through
Tonight. While Widespread Severe Weather Is Not Expected...some Of
The Storms Could Become Rather Strong And Produce Small Hail...gusty
Winds And Heavy Rains.




.days Two Through Seven...saturday Through Thursday

Freezing Rain Is Possible Saturday Into Sunday For The Northwest
Part Of The Region Where An Ice Storm Warning Is In Effect. Total Ice
Accumulations Between One Quarter And Three Quarters Of An Inch
Are Possible. There Is Also A Chance Of Freezing Rain And Sleet
Over The Southeast Half Of The Region Sunday Night And Monday...with
A Slight Chance Of Freezing Rain Or Sleet In The Far South Tuesday
Into Wednesday.



In Addition...there Is A Chance Of Thunderstorms Saturday. Some
Of The Storms Could Become Strong Enough To Produce Small Hail And
Heavy Rains.

.spotter Information Statement...

Limited Spotter Activation May Be Required For Thunderstorms This
Afternoon And Tonight...and For Freezing Rain/ice Reports Late
Tonight.

[Race2Beach]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/odessa Tx
336 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


Guadalupe Mountains Of Eddy County-eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-central Lea County-southern Lea County-gaines-
Dawson-borden-scurry-andrews-martin-howard-mitchell-
Van Horn And Highway 54 Corridor-
Reeves County And Upper Trans Pecos-loving-winkler-ector-midland-
Glass****-ward-crane-upton-reagan-davis/apache Mountains Area-
Pecos-presidio Valley-marfa Plateau-big Bend Area-terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains-


336 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007 /236 Am Mst Fri Jan 12 2007/



This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of Southeast New
Mexico...southwest Texas And West Texas.



.day One...today And Tonight



Scattered Thunderstorms Are Possible Today...mainly From The Big
Bend And Lower Trans Pecos Regions Of West Texas North Across The
Eastern Permian Basin And The Western Low Rolling Plains. In
Addition To The Threat Of Cloud To Ground Lightning With Any
Thunderstorm...wind Gusts To 35 Mph And Hail To The Size Of Marbles
May Accompany The Strongest Storms This Afternoon.



A Polar Cold Front Will Move South Across The Texas Panhaldle Today
And Is Forecast To Reach A Colorado City To Lamesa Texas Line This
Evening...and Then To A Big Spring Texas...andrews Texas...to Tatum
New Mexico Line Before Daybreak Saturday Morning. The Airmass
Behind This Front Will Be Quite Cold...and Temperatures Behind The
Front Saturday Morning Will Be At Or Below Freezing. Abundant
Moisture Riding Up And Over This Shallow Cold Airmass Will Result
In Periods Of Freezing Rain After Midnight Tonight Over The Northern
Permian Basin And The Western Low Rolling Plains. The Best Chances
For Accumulating Ice Will Be Northeast Of A Colorado City To Borden
Line After Midnight Tonight. A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect
For West Texas And Southeastern New Mexico Beginning Late Tonight
Generally North Of A Big Spring...andrews...to Tatum Line.




.days Two Through Seven...saturday Through Thursday




Arctic Air Will Continue To Spill South Into The Outlook Area And
Saturday...then Remain Here Until Mid Way Through Next Week.
Temperatures Will Be 15 To 20 Degrees Below Normal During This
Time.

Freezing Rain May Affect Locations To The North And East Of The
Pecos River Beginning Friday Night And Lasting Into Sunday
Morning. These Areas Are In A Winter Storm Watch Since The
Possibility Exists For Ice To Accumulate To One Quarter Of An Inch
Or Greater.



Depending On How Far South The Cold Air Moves...additional
Locations Generally Along And To Either Side Of The Pecos River
Could Be Affected With Freezing Drizzle Or Rain Before The
Precipitation Ends Sunday Morning.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent -

Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx 315 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


...ice Storm Warning In Effect For The Northwest Part Of North Texas From Midnight Tonight Through Sunday Afternoon... .an Arctic Cold Front Will Move Into North Texas Late Today...then Spread South And East Overnight...bringing Very Cold Air To All Of North Texas By Saturday Night. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing In Northwest Portions After Midnight Tonight And Remain There Through Sunday. Widespread Rain Already In Progress Tonight Will Turn To Freezing Rain In The Warning Area...which Is Generally Along And Northwest Of An Eastland...mineral Wells...decatur...gainesville Line. Total Ice Accumulations Between One Quarter And Three Quarters Of An Inch Are Possible In The Warning Area.




Montague-cooke-young-jack-wise-stephens-palo Pinto-eastland- Including The Cities Of...bowie...nocona...gainesville...graham... Olney...jacksboro...decatur...bridgeport...brecken ridge... Mineral Wells...cisco...eastland...ranger...gorman


315 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


...ice Storm Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Sunday... ..winter Storm Watch No Longer In Effect


The National Weather Service In Fort Worth Has Issued An Ice Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect. Rain Will Change To Freezing Rain After Midnight Tonight Along And Northwest Of An Eastland...mineral Wells...decatur...gainesville Line. Light To Occasionally Moderate Rain Can Be Expected Over The Area Through Sunday As Warm Moist Air Overrides A Shallow Arctic Airmass. Total Ice Accumulations Between One Quarter And Three Quarters Of An Inch Are Possible. Elevated Surfaces Such As Bridges And Overpasses Will Be The First To Freeze Late Tonight...resulting In Hazardous Travel Conditions. In Addition...ice Will Also Accumulate On Trees And Power Lines...likely Resulting In Power Outages In Portions Of The Warning Area. Conditions Are Not Expected To Improve Until Late Sunday. An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous Or Impossible.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Tulsa Ok 341 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


Benton-osage-washington Ok-nowata-craig-ottawa-pawnee-tulsa- Rogers-mayes-delaware-creek-okfuskee-okmulgee-wagoner-cherokee- Adair-muskogee-mcintosh-pittsburg- Including The Cities Of...rogers...bentonville...pawhuska... Bartlesville...nowata...vinita...miami...pawnee... tulsa... Claremore...pryor...jay...bristow...okemah...okmul gee...wagoner... Tahlequah...stilwell...muskogee...eufaula...mcales ter 341 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


...ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Noon Today To 6 Pm Cst Sunday... An Ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Noon Today To 6 Pm Cst Sunday For The Following Counties...


In Arkansas... Benton. In Oklahoma... Osage...washington...nowata...craig...ottawa...paw nee...tulsa... Rogers...mayes...delaware...creek...okfuskee...okm ulgee... Wagoner...cherokee...adair...muskogee...mcintosh.. .pittsburg.


...major Ice Storm Expected Across Portions Of Eastern Oklahoma And Northwest Arkansas...


Widespread Ice Accumulations Around One Inch Are Likely Through Sunday With Locally Higher Amounts Along And South Of Interstate 44. Significant Ice Accumulation On Trees And Power Lines Will Likely Cause Numerous Power Outages That Could Last For Days. Preparations For The Ice Storm Should Be Completed As Quickly As Possible This Morning. Areas Of Freezing Rain Will Develop Today Across Northeast Oklahoma And Continue To Increase In Coverage Overnight. Rounds Of Additional Freezing Rain Are Likely Saturday With Significant Ice Accumulations Expected Saturday Night Into Sunday. The Freezing Rain May Transition To Sleet North Of Interstate 44 On Sunday Before The Precipitation Shifts East Sunday Night. Make Sure You Have An Adequate Supply Of Food...water And Necessary Medication To Last Through The Duration Of The Ice Storm. Due To The Likelihood Of Power Outages...flashlights With A Good Supply Of Batteries Is Recommended. Make Sure Vehicles Are Prepared For The Icy Conditions And Have A Full Tank Of Gas. If You Do Lose Heat And Power During The Storm...do Not Use Burning Devices That Are Not Approved For Indoor Use. Many People Are Injured Or Die From Fire Or Carbon Monoxide Poisoning. Persons Should Delay Travel Saturday Into Sunday If Possible. Roads...bridges...and Overpasses In The Warning Area Will Likely Become Slick And Hazardous. Accumulation Of Ice On Roadways Will Make Travel Treacherous. Motorists Should Use Extreme Caution If Travel Is Absolutely Necessary.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

/o.con.ktsa.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0000z/ Carroll-washington Ar-madison-sequoyah-haskell-latimer- Including The Cities Of...berryville...eureka Springs... Fayetteville...springdale...huntsville...sallisaw. ..stigler... Wilburton


341 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Noon Cst Today Through Sunday Afternoon... A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Noon Cst Today Through Sunday Afternoon For The Following Counties...


In Arkansas... Carroll...washington...madison.


In Oklahoma... Sequoyah...haskell...latimer.


Temperatures May Fall Below Freezing Across The Watch Area Tonight Into Saturday. If This Occurs...freezing Rain Would Be Likely With Significant Ice Accumulations Saturday Night Into Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch May Be Upgraded Later Today.


Make Sure You Have An Adequate Supply Of Food...water And Necessary Medication To Last Through The Duration Of The Storm. Due To The Possibility Of Power Outages...flashlights With A Good Supply Of Batteries Is Recommended. Persons Should Delay Travel If Possible. If Travel Is Absolutely Necessary...make Sure Your Car Is Winterized And In Good Working Order.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif

[Race2Beach]

Urgent -

Winter Weather Message National Weather Service St Louis Mo 433 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


..significant Ice Accumulations Possible This Weekend


.an Arctic Cold Front Will Move Southeast Across The Region On Friday Bringing An End To The Unseasonably Mild Weather. A Series Of Storm Systems Will Move Across Missouri And Illinois This Weekend...causing An Extended Period Of Widespread Precipitation. The Temperature Profile In The Atmosphere Will Favor Freezing Rain That Will Be Capable Of Producing Significant Ice Accumulations During The Weekend.


Ilz095-moz018-019-026-027-034-035-041-042-047-048-050-122245- /o.upg.klsx.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0600z/ /o.new.klsx.ws.w.0001.070112t1500z-070115t0600z/



Adams Il-knox-lewis-shelby-marion-monroe-ralls-boone-audrain- Moniteau-cole-callaway- Including The Cities Of...quincy...hannibal...columbia...mexico... Jefferson City



433 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007



...winter Storm Warning In Effect From 9 Am This Morning To Midnight Cst Sunday Night... The National Weather Service In St Louis Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From 9 Am This Morning To Midnight Cst Sunday Night. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing During The Late Morning And Early Afternoon Hours On Friday Which Will Cause The Rain To Transition Over To Freezing Rain. Periods Of Freezing Rain Will Continue Through The Weekend. The Freezing Rain Will Begin To Mix With Sleet And Snow Saturday Night Or Sunday. Significant Ice Accumulations Are Expected. A Winter Storm Warning Means That A Significant Amount Of Snow... Sleet And/or Ice Is Expected Or Occurring. Strong Winds Are Also Possible. This Will Make Travel Very Hazardous Or Impossible.



================================================== ==========

Including The City Of...bowling Green


433 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007



...winter Storm Warning In Effect From 9 Am This Morning To Midnight Cst Sunday Night...


The National Weather Service In St Louis Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From 9 Am This Morning To Midnight Cst Sunday Night. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing During The Late Morning And Early Afternoon Hours On Friday Which Will Cause The Rain To Transition Over To Freezing Rain. Periods Of Freezing Rain Will Continue Through The Weekend. The Freezing Rain Will Begin To Mix With Sleet And Snow Saturday Night Or Sunday. Significant Ice Accumulations Are Expected.


A Winter Storm Warning Means That A Significant Amount Of Snow...
Sleet And/or Ice Is Expected Or Occurring. Strong Winds Are Also Possible. This Will Make Travel Very Hazardous Or Impossible.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Norman Ok 525 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..major Ice Storm Likely This Weekend



Arctic Air...gulf Moisture And A Strong Upper Level Storm Will Combine To Produce Treacherous Winter Weather Conditions Over The Southern Plains This Weekend. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing Today And Tonight... At The Same Time That Moisture Increases Ahead Of An Upper Level Storm. Although Sleet And Snow Will Be Possible...most Of The Precipitation Will Fall As Light And Occasionally Moderate Freezing Rain. Conditions Will Deteriorate This Morning...initially Across Portions Of Western...central...and Northern Oklahoma...where Areas Of Freezing Drizzle And Light Freezing Rain Develops. Across Western North Texas Through Southern Oklahoma...conditions Will Begin To Deteriorate As Early As This Afternoon...as Rain Begins To Change Over To Freezing Rain. It Appears That The Best Chance For Significant Ice Accumulations Will Come Saturday Night And Sunday As The Main Upper Level Storm System Approaches The Southern Plains.



Okz004-005-009-010-014-121930- /o.can.koun.zr.y.0001.070112t1200z-070113t0000z/ /o.con.koun.is.w.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/



Harper-woods-ellis-woodward-roger Mills- Including The Cities Of...buffalo...alva...arnett...woodward... Cheyenne



525 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007 ..freezing Rain Advisory Is Cancelled



...ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 6 Pm This Evening To 6 Pm Cst Sunday... The National Weather Service In Norman Has Cancelled The Freezing Rain Advisory. An Ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 6 Pm This Evening To 6 Pm Cst Sunday. Light Freezing Drizzle And Isolated Light Freezing Rain Showers May Be Seen Across Northwest Oklahoma Today...but No Significant Impacts To Travel Is Expected. Periods Of Light Freezing Precipitation Are Expected Through The Weekend...with The Most Significant Icing Expected To Occur Late Saturday And Sunday. When This Occurs...the Freezing Rain May Mix With Or Change Over To Sleet And Eventually Snow.


Although Up To One-quarter Inch Of Ice Accumulation Is Possible...1 To 3 Inches Of Sleet And Snow May Occur Late Saturday Night Through Sunday. An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must Travel... Keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That Add To The Danger.

[toddrasmuson]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhancedwx/fxc_Storm_Summary.jpg

AS IVE BEEN SAYING FWS NEEDS TO DO BETTER NEED TO POST
A ICE STORM WARN SOON FOR COUNTIES S OF THE CURRENT ONE
IN NW AND N TX... WHICH NEEDS TO INCLUDE THE DFW METROPLEX..


MORE DETAILS THROUGH OUT THE MORNING... FRONT MAKING REAL GOOD
PROGRESS AS I EXPECTED ITS IN SC OK RIGHTNOW...


TODD

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0041.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...CNTRL OK..NE OK AND SE KS

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 121246Z - 121645Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS MORNING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FREEZING RAIN INCLUDE SW
OK...CNTRL OK...NE OK AND SE KS. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD
MO EXTENDING SWWD TO SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY OK TO NEAR LAWTON OK.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXIST ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND THIS COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOWN ON THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM NORMAN AND AMARILLO. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS
INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST LIFT
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EXIST ACROSS NW TX AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. DIFFERENTIAL PVA WITH THIS APPROACHING WAVE WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING. DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WARM AIR
JUST OFF THE GROUND EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS...FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION.

..BROYLES.. 01/12/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

[toddrasmuson]

Ice On Some Roads In Okc Metro Also Reported In Lawton
Already Starting... I Still Feel Ice In N Tx By Evening..

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-130000-HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...MADISONVILLE. ..HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON. ..CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND. ..DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PR AIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007...ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXASSOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTA ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHESTHROUGH. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITHDAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BESPARED THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD.THE PAST SEVERAL COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THEPOTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIRMASS AT THESURFACE AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAYNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURESDURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THIS PRECIPITATION COULDBE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. CONSIDERABLEUNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME REGARDING LOCATIONS THATWILL BE MOST AT RISK OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND TIMES THAT ITMIGHT OCCUR...IF IT EVEN ENDS UP OCCURRING AT ALL. AT THISTIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPTTHE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ATSOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS BOUNDEDBETWEEN BRENHAM...LIVINGSTON...ANAHUAC AND EDNA LOOK TO HAVE THEBETTER CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEUPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANYOTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TOSTRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST ISBOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMESAVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTSTHROUGH THE WEEKEND.$$

[DesertBoots]

Very cold up here! It is now 12F! -2F winchill! Cant believe we had 60's yesterday. We have had a light dusting of sleet on the sides of the road and driveway. Looks like I was right on us not getting much of the ice...it will be southeast of a Wichita to Overland Park line. It is just too cold for freezing rain. They are now saying at least 5 inches of snow in our watch.

[toddrasmuson]

Fast Chaser Reports Ice Build Up On Trees, Overpass Areas
As Well As Thin Layer On Cars...

New Data And Consulting With The Fast Team
Put This As A Major Major Major 'history' Making
Ice Storm From Central Into South Central Ok
And As Far South As Dallas-fortworth Metroplex
Iam Now Thinking As High As 1 1/2 Inches Of Ice
As Far S As Dallas... Up To 2 1/2 Maybe 3 Near And
Just S Of Okc... Areas In The Target Area Of Poss
2 1/2 To 3 " Would Be I-44 From Lawton To Okc And
South To Ada,paulsvalley, Norman, Moore
Those Areas Appear To Be The Hardest Hit By Sun
Eve...


More Through Out The Morning

Todd

[toddrasmuson]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Norman Ok
845 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

Okz004>048-050>052-txz083>090-121700-
Alfalfa-archer-atoka-baylor-beckham-blaine-bryan-caddo-canadian-
Carter-clay-cleveland-coal-comanche-cotton-custer-dewey-ellis-foard-
Garfield-garvin-grady-grant-greer-hardeman-harmon-harper-hughes-
Jackson-jefferson-johnston-kay-kingfisher-kiowa-knox-lincoln-logan-
Love-major-marshall-mcclain-murray-noble-oklahoma-payne-pontotoc-
Pottawatomie-roger Mills-seminole-stephens-tillman-washita-wichita-
Wilbarger-woods-woodward-
845 Am Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

.now...
...regional Weather Discussion...

...early Stages Of Ice Storm Underway...

A Large Area Of Rain Continues To Move Northeast Across Parts Of
Western...southern And Central Oklahoma...and Western North Texas.
At The Same Time...cold Air Has Plunged South Into Much Of Oklahoma
And North Texas...with The Freezing Line Now From Around Frederick
To Duncan To Around Seminole. This Means That Much Of The
Precipitation Is Freezing Rain. This Freezing Rain Is Beginning To
Accumulate On Exposed Surfaces...like Vehicles...trees And Power
Lines. In Addition...some Icing Has Been Reported On Bridges And
Overpasses.

The Freezing Rain Is Expected To Persist Through Much Of The
Morning...and Temperatures Are Expected To Remain Below Freezing.
This Means Conditions Will Continue To Get Worse Across The Area. If
You Must Travel...be Extra Careful...especially On Elevated Roadways
Like Bridges And Overpasses. Also Allow Extra Time To Drive...and To
Remove Ice From Your Vehicle.

[toddrasmuson]

Just Into The Fast Forecast Center... New Data
Showing Poss Of Major Ice As Far S As Gainesville, Denton
North Ft Worth, Northern Dallas, Plano... The Dfw Could Be
In Target Of This Massive Ice Storm By Later In The Wkend..

Might Even Have To Up The Accum Areas Across N Tx To I And 3 Quarters Of An Inch To Almost 2 Inches From Northern Dfw Area To
The Red River.. Including Areas Again Of Gainesville,denton, North Ft Worth, North Dallas, Plano, Allen, Weatherford,decatur And
Other Cities In And Close To That Area...

More Details On The Way

Todd

[toddrasmuson]

5697


Update: 9:35 Pm


Front Making Its Way Through South Central Ok
With Frz Rain And Sleet North Of It And Mod To Heavy
Rain South Of It Into Nrn Tx...

Today Alone.. Locations In And Around Central,sc
Ok Could Get Up To A Quarter To Half Inch Of Ice
By This Eve...


Front Should Clear Dfw Area By Just After Noon

Todd

[toddrasmuson]

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

[OklahomaWx]

I am in Oklahoma City. Woke up to a little bit of ice covering the car and a very light freezing drizzle.

Right now the temp is around 27 and it is mainly sleet falling from the sky where I am.

[VanceWxMan]

I used to live in Enid, OK.. this storm will be fun.. I forecasted them to get FZRA/DZ RAPL till tomorrow late afternoon then it should start to be more of a SN event ending around Monday afternoon. I do miss OK dearly! I remember the ice storm of 2002! I was without power for 5 days and there was ICE EVERYWHERE! Some places had 3-4" of it. It got so heavy that the planes on the Vance, AFB tarmac were tail down and frozen to the ground (by the tail)

I am up here in Cheyenne, WY now where the temp is currently -08ºF with a WC of -30ºF :o I now know what COLD IS!

[toddrasmuson]

DFW FINALLY ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ093>095-103>106-117>121-130>134-141>145-122200-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.070113T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-PARKER-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...WEATHERFORD...BRI AR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL... KAUFMAN...
FORNEY...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...
MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...
HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

...SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJOR
ICE STORM APPEARS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW ALL
DAY SATURDAY. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL FREEZE
ON EXPOSED SURFACES IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING LATER TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS MAINLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO TERRELL TO PARIS LINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IN
THE WATCH AREA. TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
IF TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED. AT HOME...MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAVE PLENTY OF NON-
PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS...WATER...AND EXTRA BLANKETS IN ANTICIPATION
OF EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

$$

DUNN

[OklahomaWx]

That is cold. I grew up near Chicago and can remember crazy low wind chills. I miss that city but not the winter for sure!

I moved here in 2001 and remember that storm in 2002. I was'nt affected by that one too much where I was living at the time, but I only had to live here 2 years before a tornado got me in Moore on May 8th of 03.

[VanceWxMan]

offtopic I remember that day! I was deployed to Kyrgyzstan and got an email with pics from my boss. It blew out the windows in our Air Traffic Controll Tower

[toddrasmuson]

We Are Currently Reviewing Data And It Appears
There Could Be Upwards Of 2 1/2 To 3" Of Precip All Being
Ice From Okc To Dallas And Along I-44 From Lawton
To Okc..

So Alot And I Repeat Alot Of Ice... This Includes The
Major Metro Areas Of Okc And Dfw Areas... No Question
About It A Large Area Of This Region Likely Without Power
By Sunday...

[OklahomaWx]

Still just sleet here in South Oklahoma City. Roads look like they are starting to get a little slushy. No further ice accumulations on trees or street signs so far other than the little bit that was there this morning.

[toddrasmuson]

Fast Future Wx... One Of The Several Models I Use (the Main One)
I Showing Ice Totals Over 3+ Inches Just S Of Okc Metro Area
Including Norman, Paulsvalley, Ada, Sulphur, Ardmore... Areas
Within Or Close To This Area Could Be Also Near The 3 Inch Mark..

North Tx Again Could Also See Alot... I Will Have Some New Maps Up
Soon... Gainesville To Decatur To Mineral Wells East To Sherman
Rockwall To Hillsboro Line.. In This Area Which Includes All Of The
Dallas-fortworth Metroplex... Within This Area I Expect 2 Inches+
Of Precip According To The Models... This Entire Area Will Have Sub
Frz Temps By Midnight Tonight Or Shortly There After...

Non The Less Again As I Have Been Saying For Days It Had The Chance
To Do This And Become A History Making Major Damaging Ice Storm
And It Is Gonna Be Such... So If Your Within These Areas From
The Ok/ks Line To Dfw Area Or Lawton To Tulsa Anywhere Within
The Talked About Areas Please Stock Up If You Havent If Your In N.tx Esp You Still Have Some Time So Stock Up For Days Worth Of
Food, Exc Items You Might Not For Not Being Able To Leave Your
Home For Days And Be Prepared To Be Without Power For Long
Extended Peroids Of Time!

More Updates Soon, Hope To Have A Few New Graphics
Up Soon...

Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

5698

[toddrasmuson]

Reports Out Of The Okc Metro Show That The Ice
Totals On N End Of This Might Be Slightly Lower Then
First Thought Most Precip Until This Point Has Been Falling
In The Form Of Sleet And Not Frz Rain, Which Is Very Good.

I Will Keep An Eye On This And Have Further Updates
In The Coming Few Hrs.. But Keep In Mind This Is Just The
First Of Three Waves That Will Come Across This Region
So This Does Not Mean It Will Be All Sleet Or That This
Wont Be A Major Ice Storm, Just Until This Point Most
The Reports I've Gotten Have Been Sleet, Back Sw Of The
Metro Thats Diffrent Though From Near Lawton To Chickasha
To Duncan Reports Of Frz Rain Last Several Hrs...

More Updates Soon..

Todd

[ROLLTIDE]

SE texas NWS

THE REST OF THE FCST CAN BE PRETTY MUCH BE DESCRIBED AS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE NIGHTMARE. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) WILL STILL ARRIVE IN SE
TX BUT TIMING IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GLOBAL MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) HAVE
SLOWED IT DOWN EVEN FURTHER - NOW PUSHING IT OFF THE UPPER TX
COAST MONDAY MORNING. NAM (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/nam.htm) IS FASTER. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST TIMING
THAT WE HAVE GOING (OFF THE COAST SUN EVENING). REASONING IS THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) ARE KNOWN TO BE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THESE
SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIRMASSES. THIS ONE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY
UNMODIFIED CONSIDERING THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.. CANNOT
UNDERSTAND WHY THIS BOUNDARY WOULD STALL BETWEEN DALLAS AND
MADISONVILLE FOR 24+ HOURS AS IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE 00Z
GFS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/gfs.htm). SO...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HUGE TEMP BUST SUN NIGHT IF
THE GLOBAL MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) DO ACTUALLY VERIFY. COOR WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND
CAME UP WITH ABOUT THE SAME THINKING SO I GUESS WE WON`T BE
ALONE...

NOW FOR THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST: PRECIP AND WHAT
VARIETY. EXPECT SHRA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/shra.htm)/TSTMS TO MOVE THRU ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm).
THEN OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS FCST BY SEVERAL MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) AS THE TEMPS
PLUNGE MON NIGHT-WED. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS NRN
2/3 OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MIX OF -RA/FZRA/SLEET LATE MON NIGHT.
ALL OF SE TX...EXCEPT THE NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST...COULD SEE THE
SAME TYPE VARIETY TUES MORNING, TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. RIGHT NOW MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) ARE
FAVORING THE SOUTHERN 2/3 TUE-WED MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED
GRIDS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/grid.htm) AND FCST BASED ON THIS THINKING. DID NOT GO AS HIGH A
GUIDANCE POPS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/pop.htm) DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT DO
WANT TO BEGIN HITTING IT A LITTLE HARDER CONSIDERING THE UPCOMING
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PLAN ON ISSUING AN SPS LATER IN THE
SHIFT.

AGAIN...WANT TO STRESS THAT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END. BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME HEADACHES IF ALL OR EVEN PART OF THIS WINTERY
MIX MATERIALIZES - ESP THE FZRA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BEARS WATCH (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/watch.htm)
CONTINUES :) 47

[toddrasmuson]

Heavy Rain Across N Tx On Going Along The Front
With Temps Falling Into The Mid 30s To Low 40s
Frz Rain Will Become More Likely Across The
North Tx Area Overnight Tonight..

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message...updated National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx

330 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007



Txz093-103-117-118-130-131-141-130600- /o.upg.kfwd.ws.a.0002.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/ /o.exb.kfwd.is.w.0001.070113t0600z-070115t0000z/ Grayson-denton-parker-tarrant-erath-hood-comanche- Including The Cities Of...sherman...denison...denton... Lewisville...flower Mound...the Colony...weatherford...briar... Fort Worth...arlington...stephenville...dublin...granbu ry... Oak Trail Shores...comanche...de Leon 330 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007





...ice Storm Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Sunday...


..winter Storm Watch No Longer In Effect



..significant Ice Storm Becoming More Likely The National Weather Service In Fort Worth Has Issued An Ice Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Sunday. This Ice Storm Warning Replaces The Winter Storm Watch. An Arctic Cold Front Will Move Through North Texas This Evening Resulting In Much Colder Temperatures. Temperatures Are Expected To Fall Into The Mid 30s Behind The Cold Front...then Continue To Fall Overnight To Near Or Slightly Below Freezing By Early Morning. Areas Of Light To Moderate Rain Will Continue Overnight And Persist Through Sunday As An Upper Level Low Approaches The Area. Temperatures Are Expected To Remain In The Low 30s Through The Day Saturday. Minor Ice Accumulations May Begin Late Tonight...especially Across The Northern Portions Of The Warning Area...with More Significant Ice Accumulations Expected Later Saturday Into Sunday. Ice Accumulations Of One-quarter To One- Half Inch Will Be Possible. Ice Accumulations On Roads Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous. Travel In These Areas Is Strongly Discouraged. If Travel Is Absolutely Necessary...keep An Extra Blanket...flashlight...food... And Water In Your Vehicle In Case You Become Stranded. At Home... Make Sure That You Have Plenty Of Non-perishable Food Items... Water...and Extra Blankets In Anticipation Of Extended Power Outages. An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous Or Impossible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Txz091-092-100>102-115-116-129-130600- /o.con.kfwd.is.w.0001.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/ Montague-cooke-young-jack-wise-stephens-palo Pinto-eastland- Including The Cities Of...bowie...nocona...gainesville...graham... Olney...jacksboro...decatur...bridgeport...brecken ridge... Mineral Wells...cisco...eastland...ranger...gorman 330 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007 ...ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 6 Pm This Evening To 6 Pm Cst Sunday... ..major Ice Storm Expected This Weekend An Arctic Cold Front Is Currently Moving Through North Texas This Evening Resulting In Much Colder Temperatures. Temperatures Will Fall Into The Mid 30s Behind The Cold Front...then Continue To Fall To Near Or Slightly Below Freezing Overnight. Areas Of Light To Moderate Rain Will Continue This Evening And Overnight And Persist Through The Weekend As An Upper Level Low Approaches The Area. Temperatures Are Expected To Remain In The Low 30s Through The Day Saturday. Minor Ice Accumulations May Begin Late This Evening... Especially Across The Northwest Portions Of The Warning Area From Breckenridge To Jacksboro To Gainesville...with More Significant Ice Accumulations Expected Later Saturday Into Sunday. Ice Accumulations Of One-half To One Inch Will Be Possible Through Sunday. Ice Accumulation Of This Magnitude Will Make Roads Extremely Dangerous. Travel In These Areas Is Strongly Discouraged. If Travel Is Absolutely Necessary...keep An Extra Blanket...flashlight... Food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case You Become Stranded. Trees And Power Lines Will Be Downed By Significant Ice Accumulations. At Home...make Sure That You Have Plenty Of Non-perishable Food Items...water...and Extra Blankets In Anticipation Of Extended Power Outages. An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous Or Impossible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Txz094-095-104>106-119>121-132>134-142>145-130600- /o.ext.kfwd.ws.a.0002.070113t0600z-070115t0000z/ Fannin-lamar-collin-hunt-delta-dallas-rockwall-kaufman-somervell- Johnson-ellis-mills-hamilton-bosque-hill- Including The Cities Of...bonham...paris...plano...greenville... Commerce...cooper...dallas...rockwall...terrell... kaufman... Forney...glen Rose...cleburne...burleson...waxahachie...ennis... Midlothian...glenn Heights...goldthwaite...hamilton...hico... Clifton...meridian...valley Mills...hillsboro 330 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007 ...winter Storm Watch Now In Effect From Midnight Cst Tonight Through Sunday Afternoon... An Arctic Cold Front Will Move Through North Texas This Evening. Temperatures Will Fall Into The 30s Behind The Front...and Will Likely Be Near Freezing All Day Saturday. Abundant Gulf Moisture Will Remain In Place Across All Of North Texas...resulting In Areas Of Rain Which Will Freeze On Exposed Surfaces If The Temperatures Remain Below Freezing. There Is Still Some Uncertainty In Where The Best Chances For Significant Ice Accumulations Will Be...but Portions Of This Watch Area May Be Upgraded To An Ice Storm Warning Later Tonight. The Potential For Freezing Rain Exists Mainly North Of A Goldthwaite To Hillsboro To Terrell To Paris Line Through Sunday. Ice Accumulations Of Up To One-quarter Inch Are Possible In The Watch Area Through Sunday. More Significant Ice Accumulations Are Expected Farther To The Northwest. Ice Accumulation On Roads Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous In The Watch Area. Travel In These Areas Is Strongly Discouraged. If Travel Is Absolutely Necessary...keep An Extra Blanket... Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case You Become Stranded. At Home...make Sure That You Have Plenty Of Non- Perishable Food Items...water...and Extra Blankets In Anticipation Of Extended Power Outages. A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant Snow...sleet...or Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel.

[toddrasmuson]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx
330 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

Txz093-103-117-118-130-131-141-130600-
/o.upg.kfwd.ws.a.0002.070113t0000z-070115t0000z/
/o.exb.kfwd.is.w.0001.070113t0600z-070115t0000z/
Grayson-denton-parker-tarrant-erath-hood-comanche-
Including The Cities Of...sherman...denison...denton...
Lewisville...flower Mound...the Colony...weatherford...briar...
Fort Worth...arlington...stephenville...dublin...granbu ry...
Oak Trail Shores...comanche...de Leon
330 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

...ice Storm Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst
Sunday...
...winter Storm Watch No Longer In Effect...
...significant Ice Storm Becoming More Likely...

The National Weather Service In Fort Worth Has Issued An Ice
Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm
Cst Sunday. This Ice Storm Warning Replaces The Winter Storm Watch.

An Arctic Cold Front Will Move Through North Texas This Evening
Resulting In Much Colder Temperatures. Temperatures Are Expected
To Fall Into The Mid 30s Behind The Cold Front...then Continue To
Fall Overnight To Near Or Slightly Below Freezing By Early
Morning. Areas Of Light To Moderate Rain Will Continue Overnight
And Persist Through Sunday As An Upper Level Low Approaches The
Area. Temperatures Are Expected To Remain In The Low 30s Through
The Day Saturday. Minor Ice Accumulations May Begin Late
Tonight...especially Across The Northern Portions Of The Warning
Area...with More Significant Ice Accumulations Expected Later
Saturday Into Sunday. Ice Accumulations Of One-quarter To One-
Half Inch Will Be Possible.

Ice Accumulations On Roads Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous.
Travel In These Areas Is Strongly Discouraged. If Travel Is
Absolutely Necessary...keep An Extra Blanket...flashlight...food...
And Water In Your Vehicle In Case You Become Stranded. At Home...
Make Sure That You Have Plenty Of Non-perishable Food Items...
Water...and Extra Blankets In Anticipation Of Extended Power
Outages.

An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are
Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations
Will Make Travel Extremely Dangerous Or Impossible.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0043.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121849Z - 122345Z

ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.05 TO
0.10 INCH PER HOUR...SHOULD PERSIST FROM SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL OK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
RATES MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON SREF MEAN QPF AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RAIN IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN IN A NARROW BAND FROM NWRN TX INTO
PARTS OF SRN AND ERN OK OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION SHIELD COMPOSED OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS HAS
EXPANDED AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN OK THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF STRONG ARCTIC FROPA THIS MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS INITIALLY INDUCED AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
FRONT DEVELOPED INTO A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR EMANATING FROM
SOUTH TX AND THE GULF. IT APPEARS THAT DEEPER ASCENT...AIDED BY A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM NM/WEST TX...HAS
SUSTAINED THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OK OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED THIS LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD/NEWD ATOP THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A GRADUAL NEWD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AREA HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR.

MEANWHILE...A NEARLY STEADY-STATE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT HAS NOW
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM TX/RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD ATOP THE
SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WAS
ALSO BEING PROVIDED BY A TROPICAL CONNECTION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE NOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ALIGNED
WITH THE DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD NEWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES MAY OCCASIONALLY OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE
AS ENHANCED ASCENT WITH THE UPPER PERTURBATIONS COINCIDE WITH LIFT
ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING FROM NWRN
TX INTO SWRN OK AT THIS TIME. A GRADUAL SWD/SEWD SHIFT TO THE
SURFACE FREEZING LINE...AND CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FROM NWRN
TX INTO SCNTRL AND ERN OK THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 01/12/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

[toddrasmuson]

Sorry Bout That Race2beach.. Ya Beat Me To It

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0042.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL MO...FAR SERN KS...EXTREME NERN OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121834Z - 122330Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF .05 TO .10 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCAL
RATES NEAR .15 IN/HR AT TIMES.

A LARGE AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN INTO N-CNTRL
OK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD INTO SERN KS/CNTRL MO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND WARM THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP
AN INCREASINGLY COLD DOME NEAR THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ENTERING WRN OK PER W/V SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD...FURTHER ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM. AT 18Z...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS FROM AROUND GMJ
TO JEF TO 50 N STL. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THE FREEZING LINE SEWD AT AROUND 10 KT THROUGH
00Z.

18Z SGF AND ILX OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE WARM NOSE
PRESENT WITH A SATURATED 850-900 MB LAYER AROUND 10 DEGREES C. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE FROM BOTH THE 15Z RUC AND 12Z NAM MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OBSERVED SGF
SOUNDING. THEIR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IN A 50-75 KM BAND CENTERED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE 18Z SURFACE FREEZING LINE. FURTHER NW...FROM AROUND CNU TO
SZL TO UIN...INITIAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION
TO MAINLY SLEET. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR-SURFACE
COLD AIR SLOWLY INCREASES BENEATH THE ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER.

..GRAMS.. 01/12/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37159586 37739574 38579481 39469341 39739218 39869124
39359038 38729055 37819194 37229279 36279444 36429510

[DesertBoots]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
251 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM ICE STORM 4 SE BARTLETT 37.01N 95.16W
01/12/2007 LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0.50 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.


Looks to be more moisture surging north than first thought. At about 130pm it was 16F and moderate rain that quickly changed to sleet. I dont think I ever remember it being that cold and raining. Models might be trending towards a stronger storm come sunday into monday.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
344 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0145 Pm Heavy Sleet Pawnee 36.34n 96.80w
01/12/2007 E1.50 Inch Pawnee Ok Fire Dept/rescue

1-1.5 Inches Of Sleet Reported In Portions Of The County

0150 Pm Ice Storm Pawhuska 36.67n 96.34w
01/12/2007 Osage Ok Utility Company

1/4 Inch Of Ice Accumulation With Another 1/4 To 1/2 Inch
Of Sleet

0200 Pm Heavy Sleet Copan 36.90n 95.93w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Washington Ok Public

1/2 Inch Of Sleet Reported

0227 Pm Heavy Sleet Vinita 36.64n 95.15w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Craig Ok Emergency Mngr

1/4 To 1/2 Inch Of Sleet

0300 Pm Heavy Sleet Tulsa 36.13n 95.92w
01/12/2007 M0.50 Inch Tulsa Ok Official Nws Obs

1/2 Inch Of Sleet At The Nws Office

[Race2Beach]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

ARCTIC BLAST WITH THE THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

AFTER SOME UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER WITH WHAT FEELS LIKE A WARM FALL DAY...HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND SATURDAY...MOTHER NATURE WILL DRIVE A AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 20 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW AIRMASS. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE GROUND SHOULD BE WARM AND THIS WOULD HINDER THE FORMATION OF ICE ON ROADS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BY NOON ON MONDAY BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADS IN THE AREAS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON LINE MAY BEGINNING TO FREEZE UP DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE ON MONDAY WILL BE SMALL AND SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 30 AND 37 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THIS AREA. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF ROADWAYS ICING UP SHOULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE HOUSTON METROPLEX AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. WITH NIGHTFALL MONDAY THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP. TO SOUTH THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY SO ONLY RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME SLEET MAY GET MIXED IN MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. http://www.khou.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_eek.gif TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY HAMPERED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ONE LAST SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BELT OF THE AREA...COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY...AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST COULD EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS BUT 3 TO 6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WIND CHILL INDICES OF 15 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE COLDER READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

http://www.khou.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_arrow.gif RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY OTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TO STRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST IS BOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
417 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0300 Pm Sleet Butler 38.26n 94.34w
01/12/2007 U0.00 Inch Bates Mo Law Enforcement

Sheriff Reported County Roads Ice Covered

0317 Pm Heavy Sleet Boonville 38.96n 92.75w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Cooper Mo Emergency Mngr

Emergency Manager Reported .25 To .5 Of An Inch Of Sleet.


0324 Pm Ice Storm Warrensburg 38.76n 93.73w
01/12/2007 Johnson Mo Emergency Mngr

*** 1 Fatal *** Emergency Manager Reported .25 Of An Inch
Of Freezing Rain Followed By .25 Of An Inch Of Sleet.
Fatal Car Accident Attributed To Weather.

0327 Pm Sleet Overland Park 38.91n 94.68w
01/12/2007 E0.20 Inch Johnson Ks Emergency Mngr

Emergency Management Reported .1 To .2 Of An Inch Of
Sleet.

0331 Pm Sleet Paola 38.58n 94.87w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Miami Ks Law Enforcement

Reported By Sheriffs Office.

0344 Pm Sleet Sedalia 38.70n 93.23w
01/12/2007 E0.37 Inch Pettis Mo Emergency Mngr

Emergency Management Reported 1/4 To 3/8s Of An Inch Of
Sleet.

0355 Pm Sleet 3 Se Clinton 38.34n 93.73w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Henry Mo Trained Spotter


&&

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis Mo
407 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0155 Pm Sleet Ashland 38.77n 92.26w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Boone Mo Trained Spotter

On Hwy 63...heavy Sleet.

0405 Pm Freezing Rain Rhineland 38.72n 91.52w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Montgomery Mo Trained Spotter

Freezing Rain/drizzle. Trees And Other Surfaces Icing.
Temp 31.

0406 Pm Freezing Rain Quincy 39.93n 91.39w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Adams Il Trained Spotter

Freezing Rain/drizzle. Roads, Trees And Power Lines Iced.

[ROLLTIDE]

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNINGTXC309-122330-/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.070112T2252Z-070112T2330Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX452 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... MCLENNAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS* UNTIL 530 PM CST* AT 450 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCGREGOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... LORENA BY 500 PM CST HEWITT BY 510 PM CST WOODWAY AND ROBINSON BY 515 PM CST BEVERLY HILLS AND WACO BY 525 PM CST BELLMEAD...LACY-LAKEVIEW AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTHCREST BY 530 PM CSTTAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN ANINTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.DO NOT LEAVE SHELTER TO USE YOUR CAR TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS AREEASILY TOSSED AND CRUSHED BY TORNADO WINDS.LAT...LON 3135 9736 3129 9726 3166 9692 3178 9718$$

[diablo]

It's been sleeting and freezing here for 4 hours now and damn it's cold..
21* and a windchill of 10*.


WWUS43 KSGF 122146
WSWSGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...MAJOR ICE STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING TO NEAR A BRANSON TO SALEM LINE BY MID EVENING. WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION AND FINAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETED NOW FOR THIS MAJOR ICE STORM.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104-130600-
/O.CON.KSGF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T0600Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...S ALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD.. .ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT ...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH
346 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AT 3 PM...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WAS FALLING NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CASSVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO ROLLA. THE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
BY RUSH HOUR. MANY ROADS HAD BECOME ICE COVERED WEST OF A JOPLIN
TO VERSAILLES LINE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY SLEET
THEN SNOW ON SUNDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF.

THESE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION AND NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS MAJOR ICE STORM.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE
DANGER.

$$

MOZ097-098-105-106-130600-
/O.CON.KSGF.WS.A.0001.070113T1200Z-070115T0600Z/
HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
346 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
POSSIBLY SNOW LATER SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE AREAS FROM
BRANSON TO WEST PLAINS REMAIN UNDER THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

PERSONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM GAINESVILLE TO WEST
PLAINS AND EMINENCE SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
522 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0521 Pm Sleet New Franklin 39.02n 92.74w
01/12/2007 M0.00 Inch Howard Mo Trained Spotter

St Louis Wfo Spotter Traveling Through New Franklin
Reports One Half Inch Of Sleet Along Highway 40.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
514 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0513 Pm Ice Storm Butler 38.26n 94.34w
01/12/2007 Bates Mo Emergency Mngr

0.60 Inches Of Ice Measured Since 9 Am. Road Conditions
Treacherous But Icing On Elevated Surfaces...such As
Trees And Powerlines...is Minimal. Several Motor Vehicle
Accidents Reported.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita Ks
554 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0550 Pm Sleet 14 Ne Independence 37.37n 95.53w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Montgomery Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With 1 Inch Of Sleet
Depth On The Ground.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
National Weather Service Wichita Ks
436 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0147 Pm Ice Storm Independence 37.23n 95.71w
01/12/2007 Montgomery Ks Law Enforcement

0.25 Inch Of Ice Accumulation.

0152 Pm Ice Storm Iola 37.93n 95.40w
01/12/2007 Allen Ks Law Enforcement

0.25 Inch Of Ice Accumulation And 0.25 Inch Of Sleet
Accumulation.

0157 Pm Sleet Eureka 37.82n 96.29w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Greenwood Ks Law Enforcement

Light Coating Of Ice Underneath The Sleet.

0248 Pm Ice Storm 4 Se Bartlett 37.01n 95.16w
01/12/2007 Labette Ks Trained Spotter

0.50 Inch Of Ice Accumulation.

0306 Pm Sleet 1 S Cherryvale 37.25n 95.55w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Montgomery Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring. Sleet Has Accumulated
Three Quarters Of An Inch On Roads And Grass.

0410 Pm Sleet Wellington 37.27n 97.40w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Sumner Ks Law Enforcement

0.25 Inch Of Sleet And Some Ice Through The Day.

0412 Pm Ice Storm Sedan 37.13n 96.18w
01/12/2007 Chautauqua Ks Law Enforcement

One-half Inch Of Ice And One-half Inch Of Sleet
Accumulation.

0417 Pm Sleet Arkansas City 37.07n 97.04w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Cowley Ks Law Enforcement

One-quarter Inch Of Sleet With Light Icing Beneath The
Sleet.

0421 Pm Sleet Erie 37.57n 95.24w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Neosho Ks Law Enforcement

0.75 Inch Of Sleet Accumulation With Light Icing Beneath
The Sleet.

0427 Pm Sleet Howard 37.47n 96.26w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Elk Ks Law Enforcement

One-quarter Inch Of Sleet And Ice Accumulation.

0427 Pm Sleet Augusta 37.69n 96.98w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Butler Ks Law Enforcement

One-half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation With A Light Coating
Of Ice.


&&

The Totals Below Are Separated Into Snow...and Ice And Sleet
Categories...then By Amount...and Are Not Necessarily The
Final Amount For Each Location.




Sleet And Freezing Rain Reports Listed By Amount

Inches Location St County Time
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
0.75 Erie Ks Neosho 0421 Pm
0.75 Inch Of Sleet Accumulation With Light
Icing Beneath The Sleet.
0.75 1 S Cherryvale Ks Montgomery 0306 Pm
Observer Reported Sleet Occurring. Sleet Has
Accumulated Three Quarters Of An Inch On
Roads And Grass.
0.75 Eureka Ks Greenwood 0157 Pm
Light Coating Of Ice Underneath The Sleet.
0.50 Augusta Ks Butler 0427 Pm
One-half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation With A
Light Coating Of Ice.
0.25 Howard Ks Elk 0427 Pm
One-quarter Inch Of Sleet And Ice
Accumulation.
0.25 Arkansas City Ks Cowley 0417 Pm
One-quarter Inch Of Sleet With Light Icing
Beneath The Sleet.
0.25 Wellington Ks Sumner 0410 Pm
0.25 Inch Of Sleet And Some Ice Through The
Day.

$$

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
National Weather Service Wichita Ks
436 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0147 Pm Ice Storm Independence 37.23n 95.71w
01/12/2007 Montgomery Ks Law Enforcement

0.25 Inch Of Ice Accumulation.

0152 Pm Ice Storm Iola 37.93n 95.40w
01/12/2007 Allen Ks Law Enforcement

0.25 Inch Of Ice Accumulation And 0.25 Inch Of Sleet
Accumulation.

0157 Pm Sleet Eureka 37.82n 96.29w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Greenwood Ks Law Enforcement

Light Coating Of Ice Underneath The Sleet.

0248 Pm Ice Storm 4 Se Bartlett 37.01n 95.16w
01/12/2007 Labette Ks Trained Spotter

0.50 Inch Of Ice Accumulation.

0306 Pm Sleet 1 S Cherryvale 37.25n 95.55w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Montgomery Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring. Sleet Has Accumulated
Three Quarters Of An Inch On Roads And Grass.

0410 Pm Sleet Wellington 37.27n 97.40w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Sumner Ks Law Enforcement

0.25 Inch Of Sleet And Some Ice Through The Day.

0412 Pm Ice Storm Sedan 37.13n 96.18w
01/12/2007 Chautauqua Ks Law Enforcement

One-half Inch Of Ice And One-half Inch Of Sleet
Accumulation.

0417 Pm Sleet Arkansas City 37.07n 97.04w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Cowley Ks Law Enforcement

One-quarter Inch Of Sleet With Light Icing Beneath The
Sleet.

0421 Pm Sleet Erie 37.57n 95.24w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Neosho Ks Law Enforcement

0.75 Inch Of Sleet Accumulation With Light Icing Beneath
The Sleet.

0427 Pm Sleet Howard 37.47n 96.26w
01/12/2007 E0.25 Inch Elk Ks Law Enforcement

One-quarter Inch Of Sleet And Ice Accumulation.

0427 Pm Sleet Augusta 37.69n 96.98w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Butler Ks Law Enforcement

One-half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation With A Light Coating
Of Ice.

[Race2Beach]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
550 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

Arz001-002-010-011-019-020-029-okz049-053>076-131100-
Adair Ok-benton Ar-carroll Ar-cherokee Ok-choctaw Ok-craig Ok-
Crawford Ar-creek Ok-delaware Ok-franklin Ar-haskell Ok-latimer Ok-
Le Flore Ok-madison Ar-mayes Ok-mcintosh Ok-muskogee Ok-nowata Ok-
Okfuskee Ok-okmulgee Ok-osage Ok-ottawa Ok-pawnee Ok-pittsburg Ok-
Pushmataha Ok-rogers Ok-sebastian Ar-sequoyah Ok-tulsa Ok-wagoner Ok-
Washington Ok-washington Ar-
550 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

...significant Winter Storm Affecting The Area Through Sunday...

This Outlook Is For Northwest And West Central Arkansas As Well As
Much Of Eastern Oklahoma.

.day One...tonight.

Winter Weather.

Ice Accumulation.
Risk...elevated.
Area...northwest Of A Mcalester To Bentonville Line.
Onset...ongoing.

Discussion...
A Shallow Cold Airmass Has Moved Into Much Of Northeast Oklahoma As
Of This Evening...with A Mix Of Both Sleet And Freezing Rain
Occurring Along And Northwest Of Interstate 44. Some Freezing Rain
Was Just Southeast Of The Interstate 44 Corridor...however
Temperatures Warmed To Above Freezing To The Southeast Of Interstate
44. The Freezing Line Roughly Along A Mcalester To Cookson Oklahoma
Line...and Extended North To Approximately The Oklahoma/arkansas/
Missouri Intersection. The Shallow Cold Air Is Expected To Struggle
To Progress Through The Higher Terrain Areas Of Far Eastern Oklahoma
And Northwest Arkansas. As A Result...temperatures Will Remain Above
Freezing Overnight With Only Rain Expected. Northwest Of The
Freezing Line...these Areas Will Continue To See A Mixture Of
Freezing Rain And Sleet Tonight. A Lull In Precipitation May Occur
Across Northeast Oklahoma In The Predawn Hours As The First In
Several Upper Waves Associated With The Main Storm System Moves
Northeast Of The Area.

Slick And Hazardous Road Conditions Will Be Most Prevalent Along And
North Of Interstate 44 Tonight...however Travel Is Strongly Advised
Against As The Deteriorating Conditions Migrate Southeast Through
The Remainder Of The Warned Area. See /okcwswtsa/ For Details.

Spotter And Emergency Management Action Statement...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.days Two Through Seven...saturday Through Thursday.
Saturday...winter Weather Potential...heavy Rain Potential.
Sunday...winter Weather Potential...heavy Rain Potential.
Monday...dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
Tuesday...dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
Wednesday...no Hazards.
Thursday...no Hazards.

Extended Discussion...
Shallow Arctic Airmass Over The Region Saturday Will Maintain A
Widespread Area Of Sleet And Freezing Rain. Significant Ice
Accumulations Are Possible As Several More Rounds Of Precipitation
Affect The Area Saturday And Sunday. Travel Across The Warned Area
Will Remain Extremely Hazardous With Many Roads Completely Iced
Over. Widespread And Extended Power Outages Are Possible As Ice
Accumulates On Power Lines And Tree Limbs. The Threat Of Power
Outages Will Continue After The Precipitation Ends As Temperatures
Remain Below Freezing Through Much Of Next Week. Periods Of Wind As
The Storm Exits The Region Have The Added Problem Of Falling
Ice-coated Tree Limbs. The Wind Will Also Produce Dangerous Wind
Chill Values Throughout The Week.

Areas South Of The Cold Front...mainly Far Southeast Oklahoma And
West Central Arkansas Saturday And Sunday May See Several Periods Of
Heavy Rainfall That Could Produce Local Storm Totals Of Up To 6
Inches. Flooding Will Be Possible In Areas That Receive The Greatest
Rainfall Amounts. See /okcffatsa/ For Details.

Emergency Management Planning Statement...
Emergency Managers Should Continue To Monitor The Latest Conditions
And Forecasts. This Prolonged Winter Weather Event Has The Potential
To Cause Significant Consequences Across A Very Wide Area.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
614 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0610 Pm Sleet Clinton 38.37n 93.77w
01/12/2007 E1.50 Inch Henry Mo Emergency Mngr

1.5 Inches Of Sleet Along With A Glaze Of Ice

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield Mo
612 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0610 Pm Freezing Rain Everton 37.34n 93.70w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Dade Mo Public

Public Reported 1/4 Of Ice Accumulation

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
National Weather Service Springfield Mo
600 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0225 Pm Freezing Rain Buffalo 37.64n 93.09w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Dallas Mo Public

1/4 Inch Of Ice On Ground

0330 Pm Sleet Pittsburg 37.41n 94.70w
01/12/2007 M0.25 Inch Crawford Ks Co-op Observer

Co-op Observer Reported 1/4 Inch Of Sleet On The Ground

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis Mo
654 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0540 Pm Heavy Sleet Mexico 39.17n 91.87w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Audrain Mo Law Enforcement

1/4 To 1/2 Sleet

0615 Pm Sleet Shelbina 39.69n 92.04w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Shelby Mo Law Enforcement

1/8 Sleet, Freezing Rain

0625 Pm Heavy Sleet Elsberry 39.17n 90.79w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Lincoln Mo Law Enforcement

1 Inch Of Sleet In North Half Of County

0630 Pm Heavy Sleet Quincy 39.93n 91.39w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Adams Il Law Enforcement

One Inch Of Sleet On Ground

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo Tx
630 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0430 Pm Freezing Rain Haskell 33.16n 99.73w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Haskell Tx Dept Of Highways

Freezing Rain Begin. Some Icy Spots Already Noted.

0430 Pm Freezing Rain Throckmorton 33.18n 99.18w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Throckmorton Tx Amateur Radio

Freezing Rain Started. Some Icy Spots Noted.

0530 Pm Freezing Rain Anson 32.76n 99.90w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Jones Tx Dept Of Highways

Freezing Rain Has Started. Ice Just Beginning To Form.

0530 Pm Freezing Rain Albany 32.73n 99.30w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Shackelford Tx Amateur Radio

Some Icy Spots Beginning To Form.

0530 Pm Freezing Rain Sweetwater 32.47n 100.40w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Nolan Tx Amateur Radio

Light Freezing Drizzle Beginning To Cause Problems On The
Roads.

0530 Pm Freezing Rain Roby 32.75n 100.38w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Fisher Tx Amateur Radio

Freezing Drizzle And Fog Beginning To Cause Icy Spots.

0600 Pm Freezing Rain Abilene 32.45n 99.73w
01/12/2007 E0.00 Inch Taylor Tx Dept Of Highways

Icy Spots Beginning To Develop In Taylor County Per
Txdot.


&&

[Race2Beach]

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS... FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE 7


18 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007


..ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...


IN ARKANSAS... CARROLL...WASHINGTON. THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CARROLL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS THIS EVEING...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH DANGEROUS ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ICE STORM. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

[Race2Beach]

Ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday


An Ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday For All Of Western North Texas And All Of The Main Body Of Oklahoma Except For The Extreme Southeast.



Freezing Rain And Sleet Will Taper Off From West To East Across Oklahoma And Western North Texas Overnight. Additional Periods Of Freezing Rain And Sleet Are Expected In All Parts Of Oklahoma And Northern Texas Saturday And Saturday Night. Most Of The Ice Through Saturday Evening Is Expected To Be Light... With Ice Accumulations Generally From A Tenth To A Quarter Of An Inch. Ice And Snow Are Expected To Increase Again Late Saturday Night Over Western Oklahoma And Western North Texas... And Spread East Into The Rest Of Oklahoma Sunday Morning Before Ending From The West Later In The Day On Sunday.


Significant Ice Accumulations Of Over 1/4 Inch Will Be Most Likely Over The Southeastern Half Of Oklahoma... Roughly From Interstate 44 Southward And Eastward. Storm-total Ice Accumulations May Exceed 1 Inch By Late Sunday In Parts Of South Central And Southeastern Oklahoma... Resulting In Significant Damage To Trees And Power Lines And The Potential For Widespread Power Outages. To The Northwest Of Interstate 44... A Change Over To Sleet And Snow Now Appears More Likely By Late Saturday Night. Snow And Sleet May Accumulate 1 To 4 Inches By Midday Sunday Over Parts Of Northwestern Oklahoma. An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Occurring And Are Expected To Persist. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must Travel... Keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will Could Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That Add To The Danger.

[soonermeteor]

We haven't gotten too much actual freezing rain here, just sleet. The cars had ice on them though and the roads have become very icy. There is no ice hanging from the trees or power lines however.

[toddrasmuson]

Reports From Denton,tx Of Ice Starting To Stick
To Power Lines, And Elevated Surfaces, Trees
And Bridges,exc... Denton Being Just N Of Dfw Proper
So This Ice Will Start Building Up Rapidly As Temps
Drop Further And Will Soon Once The Soil And Ground
Temps Get Cool Enough Start Sticking To Roads
Creating A Major Ice Storm For Parts Of N.tx Including
The Dfw Metroplex...

More In Just A Few


Todd

[toddrasmuson]

5699

Pic From Fast Unit 4 Taken Just Moments Ago From
Northern Part Of Denton,tx About 30 Mins Or So
North Of Dallas And Fortworth Proper...

[ROLLTIDE]

Todd what temp do you have there ? Cause I am not seeing any stations reporting anything lower than 33

[toddrasmuson]

30 at the actual site... ive also seen 32-33 and even 34
at near reporting sites but that it on the northern side
outside main part of town so that could be why..

also its just on very elevated surfaces at this point
no reports of streets getting slushy or anything
at this point...

[toddrasmuson]

000
Fxus64 Kfwd 130309 Aab
Afdfwd

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx
908 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007


...dangerous Ice Storm Possible Across The Northwest Third Of North
Texas Late Tonight Through Sunday...

.discussion...
Arctic Front Along A Canton To Goldthwaite Line At 830 Pm And Moving
Southeast At 15 Mph. Freezing Temps Are Noticed Over Far Northwest
Counties...and Will Spread To Near A Bonham...dallas....goldthwaite
Near Daybreak. Due To This Reasoning...the Winter Storm Watch Has
Been Upgraded To A Freezing Rain Advisory Starting At Midnight And
Running Through Sunday Afternoon. Only The Western Reaches Of The
Advisory Area Should See Ice Late Tonight...but By Late Saturday
Afternoon Nearly All Of The Advisory Area Will Be At Or Below
Freezing. Ice Accumulation Up To 1/2 Inch Or More Is Possible
Northwest Of A Comanche To Sherman Line By Sunday.

The Arctic Front Should Clear The Southern Counties By 3 Am With
Temps Falling Some 30 Degrees Behind It.

As Started Earlier Today...there Should Be A Lull In The
Precipitation Saturday Morning Through Midday Then It Will Increase
Again As Another Batch Of Energy Aloft Passes By. 75

&&

820 Pm Aviation...
The Cold Front Has Moved To Southeast Of A Sulphur Springs...
Hillsboro...san Saba Line As Of 02z. This Front Continues To
To Move Southward...and Will Move Through Kact Shortly After 03z.
Rain Is Expected To Continue Overnight As The Freezing Line
Moves Southward. Will Have To Update The Tafs To Bring The
Fzra Into Kftw And Kafw Around 07z...dfw Around 08z...and Dal
10-11z. Temperatures At Kact Are Not Forecast To Fall Below Freezing
Until Early Saturday Evening. Have Kept Low Level Wind Shear In
Through 04z For The Metroplex And From 03 To 08z At Waco...as We
Will See Northwest Winds 15-20 Knots With Frontal Passage...with
Southerly Winds 20-30 Knots Above The Shallow Frontal Boundary. #58

&&

.fwd Watches/warnings/advisories...
Freezing Rain Advisory From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Sunday
For The Following Zones:
Txz094-095-104>106-119>121-132>134-142>145.

Ice Storm Warning From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Sunday For
The Following Zones: Txz093-103-117-118-130-131-141.

Ice Storm Warning Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday For The Following Zones:
Txz091-092-100>102-115-116-129.

&&

$$

75/58

[BestWxMan]

Hello I am new to the board. I'm in SW Louisiana, and am doing the best I can to try and nail down this wintry threat for the area. I am studying to be a meteorologist, and have loved weather all my life. This set up reminds me of our big Ice Storm back in January of 1997 (exactly 10 years to the day.) I am just curious what other forecasters thoughts are about the icy potential here. I feel the NWS LCH is finally starting to come on board, but are still a little too warm for temps. I think someone will be caught off guard by the potential for an ice storm.

[toddrasmuson]

i'm having some tech probs but i will be back up and running
on here by morning and plus Iam outa the office for the night
becouse it appears to be a long road ahead for tomorrow into
sun for my neck of the woods... iam thinking a history making
ice storm still possible from paulsvalley ok (about 30-45 mins s
of okc metro to dallas fortworth metroplex by sun eve...

widespread 1 1/2" totals appear likely in this area with some
areas getting upwards 3 inches of ice esp in and close and just
north of dfw and another area is just s of okc metro from paulsvalley
to duncan,ok eastward to ada to madill,ok line in there could have
major ice by sun eve...

Iam gonna try to keep this updated non-stop tomorrow with back up
wireless internet....

see ya tomorrow

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/san Antonio Tx
1135 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

Txz171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-131000-
Llano-burnet-williamson-val Verde-edwards-real-kerr-bandera-
Gillespie-kendall-blanco-hays-travis-bastrop-lee-kinney-uvalde-
Medina-bexar-comal-guadalupe-caldwell-fayette-maverick-zavala-
Frio-atascosa-wilson-karnes-gonzales-de Witt-lavaca-dimmit-
Including The Cities Of...llano...burnet...georgetown...del Rio...
Rocksprings...leakey...kerrville...bandera...frede ricksburg...
Boerne...blanco...san Marcos...austin...bastrop...giddings...
Brackettville...uvalde...hondo...san Antonio...new Braunfels...
Seguin...lockhart...la Grange...eagle Pass...crystal City...
Pearsall...pleasanton...floresville...karnes City...gonzales...
Cuero...hallettsville...carrizo Springs
920 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

...much Colder And Wetter Weather Headed This Way Over The Weekend
With A Wintry Mix Of Precipitation Possible Across The Hill Country
And South Central Texas Starting Sunday Evening To Sunday Night...

Wet And Mild Weather Through Saturday Is Forecast To Begin To End
Saturday Night Through Monday, As Conditions Become Colder. A Series
Of Fast Moving Weather Systems Moving In From The Southwest Through
Sunday Will Bring A Chance Of Rain, Showers Or Thunderstorms To The
Area. Locally Heavy Rain Is Possible Saturday Through Sunday. The
Heaviest Rain Potential Will Be Northeast Of A Fredericksburg To
San Antonio To La Grange Line.

The First Wave Of Cooler Air Is Forecast To Move Over The Hill Country
And East To Parts Of Central Texas Saturday And Saturday Night...then
Drift Southward On Sunday. As The Winter Weather System Aloft Moves
North Of The Area Sunday Night And Monday...the Gate To Much Colder
Air To The North Will Open More...bringing Much Colder Arctic Air
Across The Area Late Sunday And Sunday Night Through Monday. North
Winds 15 To 30 Mph Will Only Add To The Chill...along With A Chance
Of Precipitation. Temperatures Will Fall To Below Freezing In The
Hill Country Sunday Night And Close To And Just Above Freezing Over
The Rest Of The Area. Daytime Highs Monday Are Expected To Be In
The 30s Across The Hill Country And In The Upper 30s To Around 40
Over The Rest Of South Central Texas. Lows Below Freezing Are
Expected Over All Of South Central Texas Monday Night.

A Series Of Fast Moving Disturbances Aloft Moving In From The West
Monday Through Tuesday And Tuesday Night Will Be A Chance Of Wintry
Precipitation Developing Over The Hill Country Sunday Night, And All
Of South Central Texas Monday Night Through Tuesday. Precipitation
Chances Are Expected To End From The West Tuesday Afternoon And
Tuesday Night...with Continued Chances Of Precipitation Over The
East And Sotuheast Part Of South Central Texas Tuesday Night And
Wednesday Morning.

The Precipitation Is Expected To Begin As Freezing Rain Over The
Hill Country, As Early As Sunday Night, Then Spreading Across Much
Of The Rest Of South Central Texas By Late Monday And Monday Night.
As The Freezing Air Deepens, The Freezing Rain Will Likely
Transition Into Sleet Or Even Snow Sometime Monday Night Or Tuesday
Morning.

Temperatures Could Briefly Warm Above Freezing Tuesday Afternoon.
On Tuesday Night Lows Are Forecast To Be Below Freezing. If Any
Additional Disturbances Come, Then There Would Be A Slight Chance Of
Sleet Or Snow Across Mainly The East And Southeast Part Of South Central
Texas Tuesday Night And Early Wednesday Morning.

Light Accumulations Of Ice And Snow Are Expected At This Time
With Icing Problems Mainly On Bridges, Overpasses And Exposed
Objects. However Even Light Ice Accumulations Can Be Extremely
Dangerous Here In South Texas.

At Some Point Wednesday To Wednesday Night Precipitation Chances
Are Expected To End From The West. By Late Next Week Through Next
Weekend Increasing Clouds...a Slow Warming Trend And Chance Of Rain
Is Expected.

The Timing And Magnitude Of Colder Weather To Come Will Be Critical
With This Winter Weather Episode. If The Potential For Heavier
Accumulations Of Ice Is Expected In The Next 12 To 24 Hours, Then A
Winter Storm Watch May Be Required For Parts Of The Hill Country And
South Central Texas Sunday Night Or Monday. Listen To Noaa Weather
Radio Or Your Local Media For Updates.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
900 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0858 Pm Ice Storm Crowder 35.12n 95.67w
01/12/2007 Pittsburg Ok Emergency Mngr

Town Without Power. Approximately 470 Persons Affected.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
344 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0145 Pm Heavy Sleet Pawnee 36.34n 96.80w
01/12/2007 E1.50 Inch Pawnee Ok Fire Dept/rescue

1-1.5 Inches Of Sleet Reported In Portions Of The County

0150 Pm Ice Storm Pawhuska 36.67n 96.34w
01/12/2007 Osage Ok Utility Company

1/4 Inch Of Ice Accumulation With Another 1/4 To 1/2 Inch
Of Sleet

0200 Pm Heavy Sleet Copan 36.90n 95.93w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Washington Ok Public

1/2 Inch Of Sleet Reported

0227 Pm Heavy Sleet Vinita 36.64n 95.15w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Craig Ok Emergency Mngr

1/4 To 1/2 Inch Of Sleet

0300 Pm Heavy Sleet Tulsa 36.13n 95.92w
01/12/2007 M0.50 Inch Tulsa Ok Official Nws Obs

1/2 Inch Of Sleet At The Nws Office

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield Mo
242 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0228 Am Freezing Rain Dixon 37.99n 92.09w
01/13/2007 E1.00 Inch Pulaski Mo Public

An Inch Of Ice On Trees And Powerlines. Numerous Trees
And Powerlines Down Across The City

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis Mo
200 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

1230 Am Ice Storm Monroe City 39.65n 91.73w
01/13/2007 Monroe Mo Trained Spotter

Storm Ice And Sleet Total Accumulation 1.6 Inches.
Highway 36 Is Sleet Covered. Trees And Powerlines Are Ice
Covered.

0100 Am Ice Storm Creve Coeur 38.66n 90.44w
01/13/2007 St. Louis Mo Trained Spotter

Wires Down.

0100 Am Ice Storm St. Charles 38.79n 90.52w
01/13/2007 St. Charles Mo Trained Spotter

Tree Down Across Road.

0107 Am Ice Storm Chesterfield 38.65n 90.58w
01/13/2007 St. Louis Mo Trained Spotter

Tree Down On Wires.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
National Weather Service Wichita Ks
946 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0840 Pm Sleet 5 Nw Latham 37.59n 96.71w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Butler Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With Three Quarters Of
An Inch Of Sleet Accumulation.

0848 Pm Sleet E Arkansas City 37.07n 97.04w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Cowley Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Quarter Inch Of Sleet Accumulation
On Top Of One Quarter Inch Of Ice.

0857 Pm Sleet Eureka 37.82n 96.29w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Greenwood Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Off An On Sleet Occurring With Near 1
Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On Ground.

0900 Pm Sleet Grenola 37.35n 96.45w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Elk Ks Co-op Observer

One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On Ground.

0905 Pm Sleet Yates Center 37.87n 95.74w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Woodson Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On
Top Of Ice.

0905 Pm Sleet Fredonia 37.53n 95.82w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Wilson Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 1 To 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On
Ground.

0905 Pm Sleet Sedan 37.13n 96.18w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Chautauqua Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With 2 Inches Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground.

0915 Pm Sleet 4 Nw Iola 37.97n 95.45w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Allen Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Intermittent Sleet And Freezing Rain. 1
Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On The Ground. Roads Were
Slick.

0920 Pm Sleet Chanute 37.67n 95.46w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Neosho Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The
Ground In Chanute.

0920 Pm Sleet Howard 37.47n 96.26w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Elk Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 1 Inch Of Sleet And Ice Accumulation.

0925 Pm Sleet Parsons 37.34n 95.27w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Labette Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The
Ground. Roads Were Slick.

0930 Pm Sleet Caney 37.01n 95.93w
01/12/2007 E1.25 Inch Montgomery Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Inch And A Quarter Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground.


&&

The Totals Below Are Separated Into Snow...and Ice And Sleet
Categories...then By Amount...and Are Not Necessarily The
Final Amount For Each Location.




Sleet And Freezing Rain Reports Listed By Amount

Inches Location St County Time
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
2.00 Parsons Ks Labette 0925 Pm
Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground. Roads Were Slick.
2.00 Chanute Ks Neosho 0920 Pm
Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground In Chanute.
2.00 Sedan Ks Chautauqua 0905 Pm
Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With 2
Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The Ground.
2.00 Fredonia Ks Wilson 0905 Pm
Observer Reported 1 To 2 Inches Of Sleet
Accumulation On Ground.
1.25 Caney Ks Montgomery 0930 Pm
Observer Reported One Inch And A Quarter Of
Sleet Accumulation On The Ground.
1.00 Howard Ks Elk 0920 Pm
Observer Reported 1 Inch Of Sleet And Ice
Accumulation.
1.00 4 Nw Iola Ks Allen 0915 Pm
Observer Reported Intermittent Sleet And
Freezing Rain. 1 Inch Of Sleet Accumulation
On The Ground. Roads Were Slick.
1.00 Eureka Ks Greenwood 0857 Pm
Observer Reported Off An On Sleet Occurring
With Near 1 Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On
Ground.
0.75 5 Nw Latham Ks Butler 0840 Pm
Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With Three
Quarters Of An Inch Of Sleet Accumulation.
0.50 Yates Center Ks Woodson 0905 Pm
Observer Reported One Half Inch Of Sleet
Accumulation On Top Of Ice.
0.50 Grenola Ks Elk 0900 Pm
One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On
Ground.
0.50 E Arkansas City Ks Cowley 0848 Pm
Observer Reported One Quarter Inch Of Sleet
Accumulation On Top Of One Quarter Inch Of
Ice.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
National Weather Service Wichita Ks
946 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0840 Pm Sleet 5 Nw Latham 37.59n 96.71w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Butler Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With Three Quarters Of
An Inch Of Sleet Accumulation.

0848 Pm Sleet E Arkansas City 37.07n 97.04w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Cowley Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Quarter Inch Of Sleet Accumulation
On Top Of One Quarter Inch Of Ice.

0857 Pm Sleet Eureka 37.82n 96.29w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Greenwood Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Off An On Sleet Occurring With Near 1
Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On Ground.

0900 Pm Sleet Grenola 37.35n 96.45w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Elk Ks Co-op Observer

One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On Ground.

0905 Pm Sleet Yates Center 37.87n 95.74w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Woodson Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On
Top Of Ice.

0905 Pm Sleet Fredonia 37.53n 95.82w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Wilson Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 1 To 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On
Ground.

0905 Pm Sleet Sedan 37.13n 96.18w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Chautauqua Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With 2 Inches Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground.

0915 Pm Sleet 4 Nw Iola 37.97n 95.45w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Allen Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Intermittent Sleet And Freezing Rain. 1
Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On The Ground. Roads Were
Slick.

0920 Pm Sleet Chanute 37.67n 95.46w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Neosho Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The
Ground In Chanute.

0920 Pm Sleet Howard 37.47n 96.26w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Elk Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 1 Inch Of Sleet And Ice Accumulation.

0925 Pm Sleet Parsons 37.34n 95.27w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Labette Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The
Ground. Roads Were Slick.

0930 Pm Sleet Caney 37.01n 95.93w
01/12/2007 E1.25 Inch Montgomery Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Inch And A Quarter Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita Ks
945 Pm Cst Fri Jan 12 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0840 Pm Sleet 5 Nw Latham 37.59n 96.71w
01/12/2007 E0.75 Inch Butler Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With Three Quarters Of
An Inch Of Sleet Accumulation.

0848 Pm Sleet E Arkansas City 37.07n 97.04w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Cowley Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Quarter Inch Of Sleet Accumulation
On Top Of One Quarter Inch Of Ice.

0857 Pm Sleet Eureka 37.82n 96.29w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Greenwood Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Off An On Sleet Occurring With Near 1
Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On Ground.

0900 Pm Sleet Grenola 37.35n 96.45w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Elk Ks Co-op Observer

One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On Ground.

0905 Pm Sleet Yates Center 37.87n 95.74w
01/12/2007 E0.50 Inch Woodson Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Half Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On
Top Of Ice.

0905 Pm Sleet Fredonia 37.53n 95.82w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Wilson Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 1 To 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On
Ground.

0905 Pm Sleet Sedan 37.13n 96.18w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Chautauqua Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Sleet Occurring With 2 Inches Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground.

0915 Pm Sleet 4 Nw Iola 37.97n 95.45w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Allen Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported Intermittent Sleet And Freezing Rain. 1
Inch Of Sleet Accumulation On The Ground. Roads Were
Slick.

0920 Pm Sleet Chanute 37.67n 95.46w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Neosho Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The
Ground In Chanute.

0920 Pm Sleet Howard 37.47n 96.26w
01/12/2007 E1.00 Inch Elk Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 1 Inch Of Sleet And Ice Accumulation.

0925 Pm Sleet Parsons 37.34n 95.27w
01/12/2007 E2.00 Inch Labette Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported 2 Inches Of Sleet Accumulation On The
Ground. Roads Were Slick.

0930 Pm Sleet Caney 37.01n 95.93w
01/12/2007 E1.25 Inch Montgomery Ks Co-op Observer

Observer Reported One Inch And A Quarter Of Sleet
Accumulation On The Ground.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo Tx
1228 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time.. ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date.. ....mag.... ..county Location.. St.. ...source....
..remarks..

1227 Am Sleet Amarillo 35.20n 101.82w
01/13/2007 M0.50 Inch Potter Tx Nws Office

Sleet Began At 1114 Pm And Accumulated 0.50 Inches By
Midnight At The Nws Office.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0047.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN MO AND
CENTRAL/SRN IL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 130653Z - 131300Z

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINTER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SLOWLY SEWD IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN AR...SCENTRAL/SERN MO AND PORTIONS
OF ECENTRAL/SRN IL. A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST...WITH SLEET LOCATED ALONG THE NWRN 1/3 OR THE WINTER STORM
AREA...AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. HEAVY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.30 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NWRN AR...SRN MO AND SWRN IL.

VERY STRONG WAA ABOVE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET MAX...WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS FROM
THE OZARKS INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH SIDE OF THE JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OK/KS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD...WINTER PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER PORTIONS OF NERN
OK...WCENTRAL/SWRN MO THROUGH 12Z.

THE 06Z SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM ATOKA COUNTY IN SERN OK
NEWD TO NEAR HRO TO THE STL METRO AREA AND INTO CENTRAL IL NEAR BMI.
A WEAK SFC WAVE NOTED ON SFC ANALYSIS OVER NCENTRAL AR HAS BEEN
MOVING NEWD ALONG THIS SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY. AS THIS SFC WAVE
CONTINUES IT/S NEWD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SFC FREEZING LINE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SRN MO AND CENTRAL/SWRN IL. HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SFC
WAVE...THE SFC FREEZING LINE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH
NWRN AR AND ERN OK...AND WILL BEGIN A MORE STEADY SEWD PROGRESSION
OVER SCENTRAL MO NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN IL ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST WAA
WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z.

SLEET WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND
WCENTRAL IL...WITH A SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE SLEET/FZRA LINE
EXPECTED OVER SWRN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE AS
THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN. FZRA IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET IN THE SPRINGFIELD MO AREA BEFORE
PRECIP DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.

..CROSBIE.. 01/13/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...S GF...EAX...TSA...OUN...

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Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Wichita Ks 406 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


...winter Storm Will Continue To Affect Central Into Southeast Kansas...

Russell-lincoln-barton-ellsworth-saline-rice-mcpherson-marion- Chase-reno-harvey-kingman-sedgwick-harper- Including The Cities Of...russell...lincoln...great Bend... Ellsworth...salina...lyons...mcpherson...marion... Cottonwood Falls...hutchinson...newton...kingman...wichita... Anthony...harper

406 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday The National Weather Service In Wichita Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning...which Is In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday. The Winter Weather Advisory Is No Longer In Effect. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect.


A Few Areas Of Sleet Could Develop Over The Area Around Daybreak. Ice Accumulations Will Be Light. Moderate To Heavy Snow Will Develop As The Morning Wears On. Snowfall Rates Could Reach 1 Inch An Hour At Times With Total Snowfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Possible Before Ending Late This Afternoon. The Snow Will Develop Again After Midnight And Continue Through Sunday. The Snow May Be Heavy At Times Especially In Central Kansas. Total Snowfall Accumulations Will Range From 5 To 8 Inches Before Ending Sunday Evening. A Winter Storm Warning Means Significant Winter Weather Is Expected Or Occurring. This Will Make Travel Very Hazardous Or Impossible.


Including The Cities Of...el Dorado...augusta...eureka... Yates Center...iola...wellington...winfield...arkansas City... Howard...fredonia...chanute...erie...sedan...coffe yville... Independence...parsons


406 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday A Winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday.



A Winter Storm Will Continue To Affect The Region From Today Through Sunday...bringing A Variety Of Winter Weather. Snow And Sleet Will Develop Across Portions Of South Central And Southeast Kansas By Noon. Total Snow And Sleet Accumulations Could Range From 1 To 3 Inches With The Highest Snowfall Accumulations Anticipated In Areas West Of The Flint Hills Where They Could See Up To 3 Inches This Afternoon. This Will Result In Very Slick Roadways. The Precipitation Should Come To An End Briefly Early This Evening...before Starting Up Again On Sunday. The Main Precipitation Type Will Sleet And Snow With Additional Snow And Sleet Accumulations Reaching 1 To 3 Inches Before Ending On Sunday Evening. A Winter Storm Warning Means Significant Winter Weather Is Expected Or Occurring. This Will Make Travel Very Hazardous Or Impossible.

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 417 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007


BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE- WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES- DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE- MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE.. . ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE ...NOWATA... VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYO R...JAY... BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH. ..STILWELL... MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLE R...WILBURTON... POTEAU


417 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007



..ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY


AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...


IN ARKANSAS... BENTON...CARROLL...WASHINGTON...MADISON. IN OKLAHOMA... PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA ...CRAIG... OTTAWA...PAWNEE...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWAR E...CREEK... OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAIR.. .MUSKOGEE... MCINTOSH...SEQUOYAH...PITTSBURG...HASKELL...LATIME R...LE FLORE.



..MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT REGION AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. AREAS MOST PRONE TO FREEZING RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY BE

ACROSS...PITTSBURG...LATIMER...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE ...WAGONER... MAYES...CHEROKEE...ADAIR AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. PERSONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD WITHOUT POWER. SIGNIFICANT TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE IS LIKELY DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS. STAY AWAY FROM ANY DOWN POWER LINES. AREAS SOUTH OF A POTEAU...ANTLERS LINE MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...LIMITING THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IF YOU DO LOSE HEAT AND POWER DURING THE WINTER STORM...DO NOT USE BURNING DEVICES THAT ARE NOT APPROVED FOR INDOOR USE. MANY PEOPLE ARE INJURED OR DIE FROM FIRE OR CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. PERSONS SHOULD DELAY TRAVEL TODAY AND SUNDAY IF POSSIBLE. MANY ROADS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. COUNTIES WHERE IT WAS REPORTED THAT ROADS WERE SLICK IN SPOTS... WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH.. .SEQUOYAH... PITTSBURG AND HASKELL. COUNTIES WHERE SLICK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WERE REPORTED... LATIMER AND LE FLORE. COUNTIES WHERE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADS WERE REPORTED...



OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG...OTTAWA...PAW NEE...TULSA... ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...CREEK...OKFUSKEE AND OKMULGEE.



DETAILED ROAD INFORMATION FOR OKLAHOMA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT...WWW.DPS.STATE.OK.US/CGI-BIN/WEATHERMAP.CGI OR BY PHONE AT 405-425-2385 OR 888-425-2385.


DETAILED ROAD INFORMATION FOR ARKANSAS CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.ARKANSASHIGHWAYS.COM OR BY PHONE AT 800-245-1672.

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Winter Weather Impact Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo Tx
419 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

...winter Weather Impact Statement...

Valid Tonight Through Tuesday.

Winter Weather Expected

Freezing Rain...sleet...snow...wind Chills And Prolonged Cold
Temperatures.

Affected Areas

All Of The Oklahoma And Texas Panhandles.

Forecast Timing Of Event
Very Cold Surface Temperatures Will Be Capped By A Warm...moist
Layer Immediately Above The Cold Air. This Will Result In
Sleet Mixed With Light Snow This Morning. There May Also Be Areas
Of Freezing Rain Mixed With The Sleet And Snow Across The Eastern
Quarter Of The Panhandles Today. The Warm Layer Above The Surface Is
Expected To Cool Enough By Tonight To Accommodate A Transition To
Mainly Snow Mixed With Sleet. The Precipitation Is Expected To End
From Southwest To Northeast Late Sunday Afternoon.

Potential Impacts
The Prolonged Cold Conditions Will Keep Temperatures At Or Below The
Freezing Mark From Today Through Next Tuesday. Brisk Winds Enter Into
The Equation Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning...reducing
Wind Chill Temperatures To Less Than Five Below Zero.

With Precipitation Starting Mainly As Freezing Rain Or Sleet...ice
Could Accumulate On Roadways...bridges...overpasses...power Lines
And Other Elevated Objects. Duration Of Freezing Precipitation Could
Result In 1/4 To 1/2 Inch Of Ice. In Isolated Areas...mainly
Across The Eastern Oklahoma And Texas Panhandles...ice Accumulations
Could Potentially Exceed 1/2 Of An Inch. Snowfall Estimates Range
Between 2 And 3 Inches...with The Greatest Amounts In The
Oklahoma Panhandle And Across The Northwest Half Of The Texas
Panhandle.

Discussion
It Now Appears That The Upper Level Storm System Is Slowing Some.
Therefore The Winter Storm Watch Was Extended In Time Through
Sunday Afternoon. However...a Prolong Period Of Warm Moist Air
Overriding The Arctic Cold Dome At The Surface Will Cause Periods
Of Freezing Rain...sleet And Snow. As The Upper Level Storm System
Gets Closer To The Panhandles Tonight And Then Passes Just To Our
North Late Sunday...the Chances Of Accumulating Ice And Snow Will
Increase.

While Confidence Is Improving With Regard To The Track Of The
Approaching Upper-level System...small Changes In The Storm Track May
Result In Changes To Precipitation Type And Amount. While The Window
Of Opportunity For Wintry Precipitation Continues To Be
Tonight Through Sunday...the Best Chances Of Freezing Rain...
Sleet And Snow Now Appear To Be Saturday Night Through Sunday.
Our Highest Confidence Is In The Likelihood Of Prolonged Subfreezing
Temperatures...and That Warning Criteria Ice Accumulations Are More
Likely Than Warning Criteria Snowfall.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis Mo
408 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0357 Am Freezing Rain Frontenac 38.63n 90.42w
01/13/2007 U0.00 Inch St. Louis Mo Trained Spotter

Ice Storm Damage Report, At Bopp And Clayton Rd, Tree
Down Across The Road And No Electricity In The Frontenac
Area. Also Tree Down Across The Road At Allenton Rd Near
Bridlespur.

0406 Am Freezing Rain Ballwin 38.59n 90.55w
01/13/2007 U0.00 Inch St. Louis Mo Trained Spotter

At 7 Trails Apartment Complex, Tree Through A Roof.

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Weather Summary For Arkansas
National Weather Service Little Rock Ar
525 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

In The Pre Dawn Hours...temperatures In The Natural State Ranged
From The Lower 30s In The Far Northwest...to The Upper 60s In The
South. The Stark Contrast In Temperatures Was Due To The Presence Of
A Frontal Boundary...which Just Before Dawn Was Located From North
Central Arkansas To Between Texarkana And Dequeen. Both Ahead Of And
Behind The Front...precipitation Was Becoming Widespread Over About
The Northwest Two Thirds Of The State. In The Far Northwest...the
Rain Had Intermittently Changed Over To A Mix Of Freezing Rain And
Sleet.

The Frontal Boundary Will Stall Out Today...with Precipitation
Overspreading Much Of The State. Several Rounds Of Moderate To Heavy
Rainfall Will Be Noted Over The Next Couple Of Days...as Several
Upper Level Systems Move Up And And Interact With The Stalled
Frontal Boundary And The Abundant Moisture Present Over The Region.
Through Sunday Night...areas Mainly North Of A Line From Texarkana
To Blytheville Could See As Much As Four To Six Inches Of Rain...
With Isolated Totals Approaching Eight Inches. Thus...flash Flooding
Will Be A Major Concern. For This Reason...a Flash Flood Watch
Continues For These Areas. In Addition To Flash Flooding...all This
Water Will Find Tributaries And Eventually The Major Waterways.
River Flooding Remains A Very Good Possibility.

At The Same Time...the Cold Air In The Northwest Portion Of The
State Will Allow For Periods Of Freezing Rain In That Area. Ice
Accumulations Of Around A Tenth To A Quarter Of An Inch Will Cause
Travel Problems Up In The Fayetteville And Springdale Areas. An Ice
Storm Warning Continues For Carroll...washington...madison...and
Benton Counties Through Sunday.

Temperatures Will Change Very Little During The Next Day Or So...and
Will Be Largely Dictated By The Position Of The Frontal Boundary.
Readings In Central And Southern Arkansas Will Top Out In The 50s To
Near 70 Degrees Today And Sunday...while Northwest Arkansas Will
Likely Not Reach The Mid 30s. Lows Tonight Will Range From The Mid
20s In The Northwest To Near 60 Degrees In The Southeast.

By The Beginning Of Next Week...dry Conditions Will Return. Expect
Much Colder Temperatures Throughout The Week As Arctic Air Settles
In. Highs Will Only Reach The Upper 20s In The Northwest To Mid
40s In The Southeast...with Lows In The Teens In The Northwest To
Upper 30s In The Southeast.

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Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Midland/odessa Tx

429 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


...freezing Rain And Freezing Drizzle To Impact Portions Of Southeastern New Mexico And The Permian Basin Saturday Morning Through Sunday Morning... .an Arctic Airmass Has Begun To Move Into The Western Low Rolling Plains This Afternoon. Expect The Southward Movement Of This Airmass To Continue Through The Permian Basin And Southeastern New Mexico By This Evening...before Spreading Through The Pecos River By Sunrise Saturday Morning. Meanwhile...a Strong Upper Level Storm System Over California Will Move Eastward Towards Southeastern New Mexico And West Texas. Moisture Spreading Across Southeastern New Mexico And West Texas In Advance Of The Upper Storm System Will Bring A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon. Temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing Across Far Southeastern New Mexico And The Northern Permian Basin Friday Evening In The Wake Of The Cold Front. Although Temperatures At The Surface Will Be Below Freezing...a Warm Layer Of Air Aloft Will Allow Precipitation To Fall In The Form Of Rain...before Freezing Upon Contact With The Ground. This Freezing Rain Event Will Be Possible Along And North Of A Tatum...andrews...garden City Line Beginning Late Friday Night And Continuing Through Saturday Morning. Ice Accumulations Up To A Quarter Of An Inch Will Be Possible By Saturday Morning In These Locations. Another Round Of Precipitation In The Form Of Freezing Rain Is Likely Across Far Southeastern New Mexico...and The Central And Northern Permian Basin Saturday Evening Through Sunday Morning... Generally Along And North Of A Kermit...midland Odessa...garden City Line. Additional Ice Accumulations Of One Quarter Inch Or Greater Will Be Possible In These Locations. Those With Travel Plans In West Texas And Southeastern New Mexico Should Keep Abreast Of The Latest Weather Information.





Northern Lea County-central Lea County-gaines-dawson-borden- Scurry-andrews-martin-howard-mitchell- Including The Cities Of...tatum...hobbs...lovington...seminole... Lamesa...gail...snyder...andrews...stanton...big Spring... Colorado City


429 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007 /329 Am Mst Sat Jan 13 2007/



...freezing Rain Advisory Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst /5 Pm Mst/ This Afternoon...


...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning...


A Freezing Rain Advisory Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst /5 Pm Mst/


This Afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning. The Winter Storm Watch Is Now In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning. Ice Accumulations Up To One Quarter Inch Are Possible Tonight. Bridges And Overpasses Will Freeze Over Before Other Surfaces. Area Roads Could Become Very Slick And Hazardous. Use Caution When Driving On Any Surface That May Be Iced Over. A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel. Continue To Monitor The Latest Information From The National Weather Service In Midland For Additional Information And Possible Winter Storm Warnings. A Freezing Rain Advisory Means That Periods Of Freezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Slippery Roads. Slow Down And Use Caution While Driving.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Southern Lea County-winkler-ector-midland-glass****- Including The Cities Of...eunice...jal...kermit...odessa... Midland...garden City

429 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

/329 Am Mst Sat Jan 13 2007/


...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning...


A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning. Significant Ice Accumulations Of One Quarter Inch Or Greater Are Possible. Bridges And Overpasses Will Freeze Over Before Other Surfaces. Area Roads Could Become Very Slick And Hazardous. Use Caution When Driving On Any Surface That May Be Iced Over. A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel. Continue To Monitor The Latest Information From The National Weather Service In Midland For Additional Information And Possible Winter Storm Warnings.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service St Louis Mo 436 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


...ice Storm Will Continue To Bring More Ice Accumulation To Region Creating Very Hazardous Travel Conditions And Widespread Damage To Trees And Power Lines Due To The Weight Of The Ice Accumulation... .a Series Of Storm Systems Will Move Across Missouri And Illinois This Weekend Producing Widespread Precipitation Across The Area. The Temperature Profile In The Atmosphere On The North Side Of A Shallow Arctic Cold Front Will Favor Freezing Rain And Sleet That Will Produce Significant And Dangerous Ice Accumulations.


Greene Il-macoupin Il-montgomery Il-bond Il-fayette Il-clinton Il- Adams Il-brown Il-pike Il-calhoun Il-jersey Il-madison Il- St. Clair Il-monroe Il-knox-lewis-shelby-marion-monroe-ralls-pike- Boone-audrain-moniteau-cole-osage-callaway-montgomery-lincoln- Gasconade-warren-st. Charles-franklin-st. Louis-st. Louis City- Jefferson-crawford-washington- Including The Cities Of...litchfield...vandalia...quincy... Edwardsville...belleville...hannibal...bowling Green...columbia... Mexico...jefferson City...st Charles...union...st Louis 436 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..ice Storm Warning Now In Effect Until 6 Am Cst Monday The Ice Storm Warning Is Now In Effect Until 6 Am Cst Monday.


Temperatures Have Fallen Below Freezing Throughout The Region... With Freezing Rain And Sleet Common Across The Area. Freezing Rain And Sleet Will Continue To Be Found From Columbia Missouri North To Edina And East To Quincy Illinois. Elsewhere...freezing Rain Will Be The Predominant Precipitation Type Over Parts Of Southeastern And East Central Missouri...including The St Louis Metro Area As Well As Parts Of Southwestern Illinois. The Strongest Precipitation Intensity And Most Ice Accumulation Is Expected This Morning...then Again On Sunday As A Low Pressure System Moves Northeastward Along The Arctic Front Poised Just Southeast Of The Bi-state Region. Additional Ice Accumulations Of One Quarter To One Half Inch Can Be Expected Over The Warning Area For Today Through Sunday Night. The Ice Will Make Travel Extremely Difficult...if Not Impossible. If Travel Is Necessary...make Sure To Exercise Caution. Begin Your Travel With A Tank Full Of Gas...and Carry A Winter Storm Kit Which Includes A Shovel...flashlight...cellphone...and Blankets Of Extra Warm Clothing. Widespread Power Outages Are Likely. Quickly Make Preparations At Home By Stocking Emergency Supplies...such As Food...medicine And Extra Heating Fuel...just In Case The Storm Makes Travel Impossible. This Is Especially Important For Those Living In Rural Areas.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service San Angelo Tx 443 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..winter Storm Possible Across The Big Country .a Combination Of An Arctic Air Mass Moving South Into West Central Texas...abundant Low Level Moisture Flowing Up And Over The Frontal Boundary...and An Approaching Upper Level Disturbance Will Combine To Produce Freezing Rain Accumulations Across Much Of West Central Texas Through Sunday.


Including The Cities Of...mertzon...san Angelo...eden...brady... San Saba 443 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..ice Storm Warning In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday


The National Weather Service In San Angelo Has Issued An Ice Storm Warning...which Is In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday.


The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect. An Arctic Front Has Pushed Through The Concho Valley And Heartland With Freezing Temperatures Filtering Into The Region Behind It. Temperatures Are Not Expected To Warm Very Much With Freezing Conditions Possible Saturday Night Into Sunday. A Strong Upper Level Disturbance With Plenty Of Moisture Lifting Over The Frontal Boundary Combined With Freezing Temperatures Near The Surface Will Make Freezing Rain And Ice Accumulations Likely.



Conditions Will Likely Deteriorate Saturday Night And Sunday Morning With Most Ice Accumulations Over One Quarter Inch Expected During That Time Frame. Residents Are Discouraged From Any Travel As Roads Will Quickly Become Hazardous Even From Small Ice Accumulations. An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That Add To The Danger.




Including The Cities Of...rotan...roby...sweetwater... Sterling City...robert Lee...bronte...ballinger...winters... Haskell...throckmorton...woodson...stamford...anso n...hamlin... Albany...abilene...clyde...baird...cross Plains...coleman... Brownwood 443 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday An Ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday.



Freezing Temperatures Remain In Place Over Much Of The Big Country...northern Concho Valley And Heartland This Morning. Temperatures Are Not Expected To Warm Much Today With Temperatures Below Freezing Likely Again Tonight And Sunday Morning. Moisture Will Continue To Lift Over The Frontal Boundary Allowing For Periods Of Freezing Drizzle And Freezing Rain During The Day. A Strong Upper Level Disturbance Is Expected To Push Into The Southern Plains Tonight And Into Sunday Morning. This Will Likely Provide Very Strong Lift For Periods Of Freezing Rain. Ice Accumulations Between A Half Inch To An Inch Will Be Possible Mainly From Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning. Residents Are Discouraged From Any Travel As Roads Will Quickly Become Hazardous Even From Small Ice Accumulations.



An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That Add To The Danger.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
441 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0200 Am Sleet Butler 38.26n 94.34w
01/13/2007 E2.00 Inch Bates Mo Law Enforcement

0230 Am Sleet Clinton 38.37n 93.77w
01/13/2007 E1.00 Inch Henry Mo Law Enforcement

0230 Am Sleet Warrensburg 38.76n 93.73w
01/13/2007 E2.00 Inch Johnson Mo Law Enforcement

0300 Am Sleet Sedalia 38.70n 93.23w
01/13/2007 E3.00 Inch Pettis Mo Law Enforcement

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis Mo
438 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0431 Am Freezing Rain Maryland Heights 38.72n 90.48w
01/13/2007 U0.00 Inch St. Louis Mo Trained Spotter

Tree Fell Onto Roof And Power Lines Down Due To Ice.

0435 Am Freezing Rain St. Louis 38.64n 90.24w
01/13/2007 U0.00 Inch St. Louis City Mo Trained Spotter

Power Lines Down In West St. Louis County.

0435 Am Freezing Rain Ballwin 38.59n 90.55w
01/13/2007 U0.00 Inch St. Louis Mo Trained Spotter

Additional Power Lines Down.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo Tx
439 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time.. ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date.. ....mag.... ..county Location.. St.. ...source....
..remarks..

0436 Am Sleet Claude 35.11n 101.36w
01/13/2007 E1.00 Inch Armstrong Tx Law Enforcement

S.o. Reported A Mixture Of Sleet And Snow That Appeared
To Be 1 Inch Deep.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Norman Ok 446 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..major Ice Storm Underway

.arctic Air And An Approaching Strong Upper-level Storm Will Combine To Produce Treacherous Winter Weather Conditions Over The Southern Plains Through This Weekend. Periods Of Sleet...freezing Rain...and Snow Will Continue To Affect Oklahoma And Western North Texas Through Sunday...causing Hazardous Travel Conditions And Icing Of Trees And Power Lines...which Could Lead To Power Outages. Accumulating Precipitation Is Still Expected To End Sunday Evening.


Harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield- Noble-roger Mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-beckham- Including The Cities Of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford... Ponca City...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry ... Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watong a... Kingfisher...elk City...sayre 446 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..ice Storm Warning Is Cancelled

..winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday


The National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning...which Is In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst Sunday.


The Predominant Precipitation Types Across The The Northwest One- Third Of Oklahoma This Weekend Are Expected To Be Sleet And Snow...although Brief Periods Of Freezing Rain Are Possible This Morning. With The Threat Of Freezing Rain Diminishing...the Ice Storm Warning Has Been Replaced By A Winter Storm Warning.




Periods Of Sleet And Snow Are Expected Through The Early Afternoon Hours Across Much Of Northern And Western Oklahoma...with Brief Freezing Rain Showers Possible This Morning. During The Afternoon...the Precipitation Is Expected To Diminish In Both Coverage And Intensity...before Much More Widespread Snow And Sleet Moves Into The Region Tonight And Sunday. Snow And Sleet Accumulations Today Could Reach 2 Inches Across Portions Of Northwest Oklahoma...with Ice Accumulations Generally One-tenth Of An Inch Or Less. Snow And Sleet Accumulations Late Tonight Through Sunday Could Add Another 1 To 4 Inches...especially Across Far Northwest And North-central Oklahoma.

[Race2Beach]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 456 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007


..UNPRECEDENTED ICE STORM FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS


.A CLASSIC SET UP FOR AN EXTREMELY INTENSE ICE STORM HAS UNFOLDED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS SPREADING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTERACTING WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SOUTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THIS INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND CAUSE WAVES OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE SPRINGFIELD METRO AREA.


BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY- BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG... BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES... NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...LAMAR... EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE 456 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007


..ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER WARNED AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. UNPRECEDENTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED ON TREES...POWER LINES...AND OTHER EXPOSED OBJECTS. SIGNIFICANT TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. MANY ROADS HAVE BECOME ICE COVERED...AND NUMEROUS FALLEN TREES AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED ALL OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT CAUSING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE WARNED AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE








MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS- DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS- MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA... OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE... ROLLA...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CA BOOL...SALEM... GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILL E... MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON... NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT ...CASSVILLE... KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH 456 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007


...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT... AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT.


FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER WARNED AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...UNPRECEDENTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED ON TREES...POWER LINES...AND OTHER EXPOSED OBJECTS. SIGNIFICANT TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.


MANY ROADS HAVE BECOME ICE COVERED...AND NUMEROUS FALLEN TREES AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT CAUSING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT ICING CAUSED BY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY. AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx 513 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


Fannin-collin-dallas-rockwall-somervell-johnson-mills-hamilton- Bosque- Including The Cities Of...bonham...plano...dallas...rockwall... Glen Rose...cleburne...burleson...goldthwaite...hamilto n...hico... Clifton...meridian...valley Mills


513 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007


..ice Storm Warning In Effect Until 6 Am Cst Monday ..freezing Rain Advisory No Longer In Effect


The National Weather Service In Fort Worth Has Upgraded The Freezing Rain Advisory To An Ice Storm Warning...which Is In Effect Until 6 Am Cst Monday. Arctic Air Will Continue To Slowly Spread Southward Across North Texas Today And Tonight. Temperatures Will Reach Freezing By Early Afternoon Along And Northwest Of A Bonham...to Rockwall...to Cedar Hill...to Glen Rose...to Lampasas Line. As Temperatures Reach Or Fall Below Freezing...rain Will Begin To Freeze On Contact With Objects On The Surface. This Will Form A Glaze Of Ice...first On Elevated Surfaces Such As Trees...power Lines And Bridges...and Eventually On Surface Roads. Accumulations Of One-quarter To One Inch Of Ice Are Possible. The Heaviest Freezing Rain Is Expected Late Tonight And Sunday. Significant Ice Accumulations On Trees And Power Lines May Cause Them To Break And Fall. Stay Indoors And Prepare For Power Outages. Stay Away From Downed Power Lines As They May Still Be Live. Roads...bridges...and Overpasses In The Warning Area Will Become Slick And Hazardous. Exercise Extreme Caution If Travel Is Absolutely Necessary. Keep An Extra Blanket...flashlight... Food...and Water In Your Vehicle In Case You Become Stranded.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message...corrected National Weather Service Midland/odessa Tx 459 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007



...freezing Rain And Freezing Drizzle To Impact Portions Of Southeastern New Mexico And The Permian Basin This Morning Through Sunday Morning... .an Arctic Air Mass Will Continue To Move Into Southwest Texas And Southeast New Mexico Today. Meanwhile...a Strong Upper Level Storm System Over California Will Move Eastward Towards Southeastern New Mexico And West Texas. Moisture Spreading Across Southeastern New Mexico And West Texas In Advance Of The Upper Storm System Will Bring A Chance Of Rain Or Freezing Rain Today And Tonight. Temperatures Will Remain At Or Below Freezing Throughout The Day Across Southeast New Mexico...the Permian Basin...and The Western Low Rolling Plains. Although Temperatures At The Surface Are Below Freezing...a Warm Layer Of Air Aloft Will Allow Precipitation To Fall In The Form Of Rain...before Freezing Upon Contact With The Ground. This Freezing Rain Event Is Possible Along And North Of A Tatum...andrews... Garden City Line This Morning Through Sunday Morning. Ice Accumulations Up To A Quarter Of An Inch Will Be Possible By This Afternoon In These Locations. Another Round Of Precipitation In The Form Of Freezing Rain Is Likely Across Far Southeastern New Mexico...and The Central And Northern Permian Basin This Evening Through Sunday Morning... Generally Along And North Of A Kermit...midland Odessa...garden City Line. Additional Ice Accumulations Of One Quarter Inch Or Greater Will Be Possible In These Locations. Those With Travel Plans In West Texas And Southeastern New Mexico Should Keep Abreast Of The Latest Weather Information.


Northern Lea County-central Lea County-gaines-dawson-borden- Scurry-andrews-martin-howard-mitchell- Including The Cities Of...tatum...hobbs...lovington...seminole... Lamesa...gail...snyder...andrews...stanton...big Spring... Colorado City 459 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007 /359 Am Mst Sat Jan 13 2007/


...freezing Rain Advisory Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst /5 Pm Mst/ This Afternoon...


...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning...


A Freezing Rain Advisory Remains In Effect Until 6 Pm Cst /5 Pm Mst/ This Afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning.


The Winter Storm Watch Is Now In Effect From This Evening Through Sunday Morning. Ice Accumulations Up To One Quarter Inch Are Possible Tonight. Bridges And Overpasses Will Freeze Over Before Other Surfaces. Area Roads Could Become Very Slick And Hazardous. Use Caution When Driving On Any Surface That May Be Iced Over.



A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel. Continue To Monitor The Latest Information From The National Weather Service In Midland For Additional Information And Possible Winter Storm Warnings.


A Freezing Rain Advisory Means That Periods Of Freezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Slippery Roads. Slow Down And Use Caution While Driving.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0048.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX...SE OK AND NW AR

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 131228Z - 131630Z

SCATTERED SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING
FROM NORTH TX EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH SE OK INTO NW AR. THE COVERAGE
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
.2 TO .5 INCHES ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM LITTLE ROCK AR
EXTENDING SWWD TO EAST TX AND WWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
FREEZING LINE IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.
SUBFREEZING TEMPS EXIST FROM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE DALLAS FORT
WORTH METROPLEX NNEWD ACROSS MOST OF ERN OK TO NORTH OF FORT SMITH
AR. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SWD THIS MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL FEED OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EXTENDING NEWD FROM WEST TX ACROSS NORTH TX
INTO ERN OK. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TX WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TX AND SRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE FEATURE MOVES NEWD. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TX...SE OK AND WRN AR WILL RESULT IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE INCREASING PVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT DUE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
THIS MORNING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM FORT WORTH TX NEWD TO NEAR FORT
SMITH AR. MODEL FORECASTS CONFIRM THIS WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
.25 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE MCD AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE QPF
AMOUNTS...SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND FTW
CONFIRM A WARM LAYER EXISTING 1500 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WITH TEMPS AS WARM AS +10 TO +13 C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN AS THE DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH SLEET WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NWRN PART OF THE MCD AREA WHERE TEMPS
IN THE WARM LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

..BROYLES.. 01/13/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX650 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-140000-HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...MADISONVILLE. ..HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON. ..CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND. ..DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PR AIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON650 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007...THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATERTODAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ANDPERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIRMASS AT THESURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOWFREEZING...THE THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE.THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST DATA AND ADJUST THEFORECAST ACCORDINGLY...THIS IS HOW THE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLYFORECAST TO EVOLVE:SUNDAY NIGHT...LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTONSHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AFTERMIDNIGHT. WHAT WILL INITIALLY START AS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TOFREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MIXEDWITH A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET...IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAYMORNING THROUGH TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES JUSTABOVE FREEZING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE RAIN.MONDAY NIGHT...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALMOSTALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATECOASTLINE. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEETTHROUGH THE NIGHT.TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVEFREEZING SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN TRANSITION TO LIQUID. INADDITION...IT APPEARS THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLYSHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TOTRINITY LINE SHOULD SEE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THANTHOSE TO THE NORTH.TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TOFREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOWFREEZING. AGAIN...AREAS SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM BRENHAM TO TRINITYSHOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RECEIVING THE MORE SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION.WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THEMORNING SHOULD COME TO AN END. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THETHREAT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION.THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITHFREEZING RAIN AND SLEET APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND A WINTERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY TO GIVE APPROPRIATELEAD TIME FOR THE UPCOMING THREAT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BEREQUIRED FURTHER SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELYHAMPERED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEWEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY OTHER PREPARATIONSNECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. CHECK ON THOSE WITH SPECIALNEEDS AND THE ELDERLY TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE PREPARED SHOULD THISWINTER WEATHER EVENT MATERIALIZE.PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEWEEKEND.$$

[Race2Beach]

Storm Summary Message


Storm Summary Number 3 For Heavy Freezing Rain, Snow And Rain
Nws Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs Md
300 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2006

...complex Storm Will Bring Several Days Of Heavy Rain, Heavy
Freezing Rain, Sleet And Heavy Snow From The Rockies Into The
Plains And Northeastern U.s....

Ice Storm Warnings Are In Effect From Northern Texas...across Much
Of Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...northwestern Arkansas...into
Central Missouri...southeastern Iowa And Central Illinois.
Freezing Rain Advisories Are In Effect For Portions Of
Southeastern New Mexico Into The Southern Texas Panhandle And
Portions Of Northern Texas...as Well As Northeastern Illinois.

Winter Storm Warnings Are In Effect For Much Of Utah Into Western
Colorado And Northern New Mexico...as Well As Portions Of Central
Missouri...southeastern Kansas And The Panhandles Of Oklahoma And
Texas. Heavy Snow Warnings Are In Effect For Portions Of Utah And
Northwestern Colorado.

Winter Storm Watches Are In Effect For Portions Of Central Texas
And Kansas...as Well As Southeastern Nebraska And Southwestern
Iowa.

Flood And Flash Flood Watches Are In Effect For Portions Of
Arkansas Through Southeastern Missouri...western
Tennessee...southern Illinois...western And Central
Kentucky...southern Indiana And Southern Ohio.

Flood And Flash Flood Warnings Are In Effect For Portions Of
Northern Texas...southern Missouri Into Northeastern Arkansas And
Western Tennessee...portions Of Western Kentucky...southeastern
Illinois...and Southwestern Indiana. In Addition...warnings Are In
Effect Across Parts Of Central Mississippi And Eastern Louisiana.

At 3 Am Cst...a Cold Front Extended From Southeastern Canada
Across The Eastern Great Lakes...middle Mississippi Valley Into
The Southern Plains And Southern Rockies. The Airmass To The North
Of The Boundary Is Arctic Air With Temperatures Well Below
Freezing. To The South Of The Boundary The Airmass Is Very Warm
And Moist With Temperatures In The 60s Across Texas Into The Lower
Mississippi Valley And Gulf States. The Cold Front Will Continue
To Slowly Move South With The Colder Air Replacing The Very Warm
And Moist Air. At The Same Time...low Pressure Will Develop Over
The Southern Plains And Lift Northeast Along The Front Into The
Northeast U.s. By Sunday Afternoon. This Will Result In An
Increase In A Mixture Of Just About Every Imaginable Type Of
Precipitation.

...selected Storm Snow Totals In Inches From Thursday Through 2 Am
Cst Saturday...

...wyoming...

Encampment 16.0
Saratoga 20 Se 12.0
Saratoga 6.0
Rawlins 4.0
Baggs 3.0

...utah...

Santaquin 10.0
Snowbird 9.5
Tooel 2 Se 9.0
Cedar City 8.0
Maeser 6.0
Sandy 5.0
Salt Lake City Intl Apt 2.6

...colorado...

Ouray 9 Ssw 13.5
Maybell 47 Nw 10.0
Wolf Creek Pass 9 Ne 9.0
Craig 8.0
Maeser 6.0
Vernal 40 Nne 6.0
Kremmiling 7.8 Wnw 5.5

...selected Freezing Rain Ice Accumulations In Inches Through 2 Am
Cst Saturday...

...kansas...

Sedan 0.50
Iola 0.25
Independence 0.25
Winfield 0.25

...missouri...

Warrensburg 0.10
Columbia 4 W 0.10

...oklahoma...

Pawhuska 0.50

...illinois...

Lewistown 0.50
Rushville 0.25
Jacksonville 0.25
Athens 2 Sw 0.25
Mason City 0.25

...selected Sleet Accumulations In Inches Through 2 Am Cst
Saturday...

...oklahoma...

Pawnee 1.50
Pawhuska 0.50
Copan 0.50
Vinita 0.50
Tulsa 0.50

...texas...

Amarillo 0.50

...kansas...

Fredonia 2.00
Sedan 2.00
Parsons 2.00
Chanute 2.00
Caney 1.25
Eureka 1.00
Iola 4 Nw 1.00
Howard 1.00

...missouri...

Monroe City 1.60
North Fayette 1.00

...illinois...

Macomb 0.75

...significant Rainfall Totals In Inches As Of 2 Am Cst
Saturday...

...texas...

Dallas 2.99
Blue Ridge 2.10
Dallas Redbird Airport 2.00
Mckinney Municipal 1.91
Carrollton 1.88

...oklahoma...

Antlers 1.97
Farris 1.95
Tahlequah 1.78
Eldon 1.75
Muskogee/davis Field 1.64
Mcalester Regional 1.47

...missouri...

Springfield 2.31
Brentwood 1.72
Saint Louis/lambert 1.48
Rolla/vichy Airport 1.35



At 3 Am Cst...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Showed A
Broad Region Of Precipitation From The Southern
Plains...northeastward Into The Mid Mississippi Valley And Toward
The Lower Great Lakes Region. A Mixture Of Snow...freezing Rain
And Sleet Extending From Portions Of Northwestern Texas...through
Central To Eastern Oklahoma...central Missouri...far Southeastern
Kansas And Into Central Illinois. Along And South Of The Cold
Front...the Precipitation Was Falling As Rain...where Temperatures
Have Not Yet Become Cold Enough For Frozen Precipitation. Across
Sections Of Eastern Utah... Colorado...arizona...new
Mexico...western Kansas...and Central To Western Nebraska Pockets
Of Light Snow Were Falling...and Are Expected To Persist Into The
Weekend.

Heavy Snows Have Already Fallen Over The Great Basin Into The
Central Rockies...but Will Taper Off This Weekend. The Heavy Snows
Are Expected To Expand Northeastward Across The Central Plains
Into The Great Lakes Saturday And Into Northern New York...central
To Northern New England On Sunday. Additional Snow Is Possible
Sunday Across The Central Plains...spreading Northeastward Into
The Great Lakes...northern New York...central And Northern New
England During Monday.

Significant Ice Accumulations Of 1/4 To 1 Inch Are Possible From
Northern Texas...northeastward Across Eastern
Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...northwestern Arkansas And Central
To Southern Missouri This Weekend.

Heavy Rainfall Of 3 To 6 Inches Is Possible From Central
Texas...northeastward Into The Mid Mississippi Valley And Ohio
Valley This Weekend. These Rains Could Cause Flash Floods And
River Flooding.

This Storm Will Continue To Intensify Through The Weekend. Changes
In The Storm Track Or Intensity Will Lead To Adjustments In The
Types Of Watches And Warnings.



Rubin-oster/oravec

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx
713 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time.. ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date.. ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0710 Am Ice Storm Bowie 33.56n 97.84w
01/13/2007 Montague Tx Law Enforcement

North Bound Hwy 287 North Of Bowie Closed Due To Ice.

[Race2Beach]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln Il
756 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0700 Am Freezing Rain Stanford 40.43n 89.22w
01/13/2007 M0.10 Inch Mclean Il Co-op Observer

Reported 0.1 Inches Of Ice

0745 Am Freezing Rain Delavan 40.37n 89.54w
01/13/2007 M0.50 Inch Tazewell Il Trained Spotter

Reported A Half Inch Of Ice On Tree Branches...us 136
Slick Near Delevan. Report From Significant Weather
Observer Program.

0743 Am Freezing Rain Chatham 39.67n 89.70w
01/13/2007 M0.75 Inch Sangamon Il Nws Employee

Reported 1/2 To 3/4 Inches Of Ice On Trees...minor
Accumulations On Sidewalks

[Race2Beach]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield Mo
741 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

Bourbon-crawford-cherokee-benton-morgan-miller-maries-vernon-
St. Clair-hickory-camden-pulaski-phelps-barton-cedar-polk-dallas-
Laclede-texas-dent-jasper-dade-greene-webster-wright-newton-
Lawrence-christian-douglas-howell-shannon-mcdonald-barry-stone-
Taney-ozark-oregon-
Including The Cities Of...fort Scott...pittsburg...
Baxter Springs...columbus...warsaw...cole Camp...versailles...
Eldon...lake Ozark...vienna...nevada...appleton City...osceola...
Hermitage...osage Beach...camdenton...fort Leonard Wood...
Waynesville...rolla...lamar...el Dorado Springs...stockton...
Bolivar...buffalo...lebanon...houston...cabool...s alem...joplin...
Carthage...greenfield...springfield...marshfield.. .rogersville...
Mountain Grove...mansfield...neosho...aurora...mount Vernon...
Nixa...ozark...ava...west Plains...winona...eminence...anderson...
Pineville...monett...cassville...kimberling City...galena...
Branson...forsyth...gainesville...theodosia...thay er...alton
741 Am Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

...unprecedented Ice Storm Will Paralyze Areas Of The Missouri
Ozarks...

Several Hours Of Freezing Rain And Sleet That Occurred Over Areas Of
The Missouri Ozarks Overnight Have Caused Major Tree And Power Line
Damage. Local Emergency Management Officials Have Declared Portions
Of Southwest Missouri A Disaster Area. This Initial Period Of
Freezing Rain Is Winding Down Early This Morning...offering A
Temporary Break From This Episode Of Hazardous Weather.

However...the Latest Forecast Analysis Suggests That More Freezing
Rain And Sleet Will Return To The Region Later Today And Tonight...
And Then Again On Sunday. Meanwhile...an Arctic Airmass Will Spread
Deeper Within The Region Helping To Cool Surface Temperatures Into
The Mid 20s...mainly Along And North Of A Line From Cassville To
Salem Missouri. This Surge Of Colder Air Will Eventually Allow
Ground Temperatures To Fall Below Freezing...causing Significant
Additional Ice Accumulation On Road Surfaces.

The Expected Additional Freezing Rain And Sleet Will Also Cause
Catastrophic Tree And Power Line Damage. Travel Across The Region
Will Become Nearly Impossible By Tonight And Sunday...especially On
Untreated Road Surfaces. Many Residents Of Southwest Missouri Will
Be Without Power For Several Days. Anyone Planning To Travel Through
The Region Should Plan To Stay Away From The Missouri Ozarks For The
Next Several Days.

Heading Into Early Next Week...the Arctic Air Will Cause
Temperatures To Fall Into The Single Digits...and Possibly Below
Zero. These Bitterly Cold Temperatures Will Only Aggravate This
Disaster And Cause Human Suffering Amongst Residents Without Heat
And Power.

Those Who Use Improvised Heating Sources To Attempt To Warm Their
Homes Are Urged To Use Extreme Caution. Dangers Of Carbon Monoxide
Poisoning And Fire Increase Dramatically With Such Devices. In
Addition...the Cold Temperatures Expected From Monday Into Wednesday
May Lead To Water Pipes Breaking...especially With Homes And
Businesses Without Heat Or Power.

Local Emergency Management Agencies Should Continue Coordinating
Efforts To Minimize Impacts From This Impending Disaster. This Is A
Very Dangerous Situation. Stay Tuned To The Latest Forecast And
Advisories Concerning This Major Winter Storm.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0049.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131347Z - 131745Z

A BAND OF HEAVY SLEET CURRENTLY OVER NW OK AND SRN KS WILL MOVE
ENEWD THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIKELY OVER NRN OK...SRN KS INTO WRN MO WITH .5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
ENHANCED LIFT EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN KS ACROSS WRN OK. THIS
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF NW TX ATTM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD
AREA ALONG WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DDC AND AMA SHOW SLEET
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH A WARM LAYER LOCATED NEAR 850 MB AND A
VERY COLD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
ALSO...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR CONVECTIVE
BURSTS.

SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA RANGE FROM 18 TO 22 DEGREES F WHICH
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MODE IN THE FORM OF
SLEET AND/OR SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SLEET ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR
THE OK-KS STATE-LINE WHERE IT APPEARS A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 01/13/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...D DC...

[ROLLTIDE]

SE Texas

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. 15Z ANALYSIS
HAS THE BOUNDARY FROM RIGHT AROUND CROCKETT TO BETWEEN COLLEGE
STATION AND BRENHAM. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S AND 40S WHILE READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) WILL GO IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS? THAT REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER THAN ANY MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) HAVE INDICATED...AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) ARE INDICATING STEADY
FRONTAL PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT
THEN MOVE THE BOUNDARY BACK (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/backng.htm) NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THEN
FINALLY MOVE IT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIRMASS
FINALLY SINKS INTO THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS THINKING SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) MOVES FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WILL HAVE TO DO SOME UPDATES. CURRENT
SPSHGX HAS THE WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO COVERED WELL. 42

&&

&&

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0051.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...CNTRL/SRN MO...CNTRL/ERN OK...PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131836Z - 132300Z

OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX. ICE ACCUMULATION RATES SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH AROUND .05
TO .10 IN/HR...WITH LOCALIZED RATES EXCEEDING .10 IN/HR.

INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY N/NEWD ACROSS
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
CONFINED BETWEEN THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND COLD
FRONT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE BELOW FREEZING SECTOR
AND PRODUCED LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 15Z
RUC AND 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS WARM/MOIST OVERRUNNING AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER W...A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE IN FAR WRN OK /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SLEET SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL OK. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE TO
ITS SOUTH. THUS...A RELATIVELY ELONGATED AXIS OF OCCASIONAL FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THIS AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WRN DFW METRO
AREA NNEWD ALONG THE US-69 CORRIDOR IN OK...ARCING NEWD ALONG THE
I-44 CORRIDOR IN MO.

..GRAMS.. 01/13/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...F WD...OUN...

[DesertBoots]

Looking at latest satellite and water vapor, looks like an awful lot of moisture is beginning to be pulled from the pacific and into northern mexico...if you look at the loops it even looks like the plume is slowly nudging its way north as it streams in. It would be nice if this storm surprised us and gave us a good dumping of snow here in ne Kansas, at least more than the dusting we have now.

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-140400-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
300 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO SOUTH OF COLLEGE STATION
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 77 DEGREES AT BEAUMONT TEXAS...TO
32 DEGREES WITH FREEZING RAIN AT DALLAS TEXAS.

THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW INTO MONDAY. AS THE CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FILTERS INTO THE REGION...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S AREAWIDE
BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO OCCUR...BUT AT THIS TIME
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

LITTLE WARMUP IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION.

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
341 Pm Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

Txz163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141200-
Houston-trinity-madison-walker-san Jacinto-polk-burleson-brazos-
Washington-grimes-montgomery-liberty-colorado-austin-waller-
Harris-chambers-wharton-fort Bend-jackson-matagorda-brazoria-
Galveston-
Including The Cities Of...crockett...trinity...groveton...
Madisonville...huntsville...shepherd...coldspring. ..livingston...
Corrigan...onalaska...caldwell...lake Somerville...
College Station...bryan...brenham...navasota...the Woodlands...
Conroe...willis...liberty...cleveland...dayton...c olumbus...
Eagle Lake...weimar...sealy...bellville...hempstead...
Prairie View...brookshire...houston...pasadena...katy...to mball...
Humble...winnie...mont Belvieu...anahuac...el Campo...wharton...
Pierce...sugar Land...missouri City...richmond...rosenberg...
Edna...bay City...palacios...pearland...lake Jackson...alvin...
Angleton...freeport...league City...texas City...friendswood...
Galveston
341 Pm Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

...threat Of Winter Weather Increasing Across Portions Of Southeast Texas
Sunday Night Into Wednesday Morning...

An Arctic Cold Front Will Continue To Slowly Move Through Southeast
Texas Tonight...with The Coldest Air Expected To Arrive Late Sunday
And Persist Into The Middle Part Of Next Week.

Pacific And Gulf Moisture Along With Embedded Upper Level Disturbances
Will Continue To Overrun The Cold Airmass At The Surface And Will Lead
To Periods Of Precipitation Through Wednesday Morning. As Surface Temperatures
Fall Below Freezing...the Threat Of Ice Accumulations Will Increase.

Though We Will Continue To Monitor The Latest Data And Adjust The Forecast
Accordingly...this Is How The Scenario Is Currently Forecast To Evolve:

Tonight...locally Heavy Rainfall Is Possible Across The Northern Portions
Of Southeast Texas...roughly Along And North Of A Line From Columbus
To Livingston. Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To 3 Inches May Lead To Some
Localized Flooding.

Sunday Night And Monday...locations North Of A Line From Brenham To
Livingston Should See Temperatures Fall Below The Freezing Mark In The
Evening. What Will Initially Start As Rain Will Transition To Freezing
Rain Overnight. Liquid Precipitation...possibly Mixed With A Little
Bit Of Sleet...is Then Expected From Late Monday Morning Through The
Early Evening Hours With Temperatures Just Above Freezing. Areas To
The South Should See Rain.

Monday Night...freezing Temperatures Are Expected Across Almost All
Of Southeast Texas Except Locations Near The Immediate Coast. Rain
Should Transition To Freezing Rain And Sleet Through The Night.

Tuesday...inland Temperatures Are Expected To Hover At Or Just Above
Freezing Resulting In A Mix Of Rain...freezing Rain And Sleet. Coastal
Locations Are Expected To Remain Above Freezing Resulting In Only Rain.
It Appears The Best Available Moisture May Gradually Shift Southward
During The Day. Locations South Of A Brenham To Livingston Line Should
See The Better Chances Of Precipitation Than Those To The North.

Tuesday Night...inland Precipitation Will Once Again Fall As Freezing
Rain And Sleet As Surface Temperatures Fall Below Freezing. Again...areas
South Of The Line From Brenham To Livingston Should Have The Better
Chances Of Receiving The More Significant Accumulating Frozen Precipitation.

Wednesday...lingering Sleet And Freezing Rain Early In The Morning Should
Come To An End As Temperatures Warm In The Late Morning And Afternoon.
This Should Bring An End To The Threat Of Frozen Precipitation.

The Threat Of Significant Ice Accumulations Associated With Freezing
Rain And Sleet Appears To Be Increasing. Ice Accumulations Between
1/4 Inch And 1/2 Inch May Occur. If This Materializes...driving Conditions
Will Become Extremely Hazardous Especially On Bridges And Overpasses.
In Addition...trees And Power Lines May Come Down. A Winter Storm
Watch May Need To Be Issued For Northern Portions Of The Southeast
Texas Later Tonight Or Early Sunday To Give Appropriate Lead Time
For The Upcoming Threat. Additional Watches May Be Required Further
South For Monday Night. Wind Chill Index Values Between 20 And 30
Degrees Are Expected Starting Sunday Night...and Readings Could Go
As Low As 10 To 20 Degrees Monday Night Through Wednesday Morning.

Residents Across Southeast Texas Should Take Advantage Of The Remaining
Warm Hours To Shelter Sensitive Plants And Pets And Make Any Other Preparations
Necessary To Winterize Your Property. Check On Those With Special Needs
And The Elderly To Make Sure They Are Prepared Should This Winter Weather
Event Materialize. Precautions Should Be Taken By Those That Must Venture
Outside. If You Must Go Outside...wear Protective Clothing To Stay Dry
And Warm And Make Certain All Extremities Are Covered.

Please Monitor The Latest Updated Weather Forecasts Through The Remainder
Of The Weekend And On Into The Start Of The Upcoming Week.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0052.gif

[Race2Beach]

Storm Summary Number 5 For Heavy Freezing Rain...snow And Rain
Nws Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs Md
300 Pm Cst Sat Jan 13 2006

...winter Storm Continues To Bring Heavy Rain...heavy Freezing
Rain...sleet...and Heavy Snow From The Southern Plains Through The
Ohio Valley...

Ice Storm Warnings Are In Effect From Northern Texas...central And
Eastern Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...northwestern
Arkansas...central Missouri...and Central Illinois.

Freezing Rain Advisories Are In Effect For Western Texas And
Southeast New Mexico...also From Southeastern Iowa And
Northeastern Missouri Into Western Illinois...as Well As Northern
Pennsylvania Into Southwestern New York...and From Eastern New
York Into Western Massachusetts.

Winter Storm Warnings Are In Effect For Western Colorado And
Northern New Mexico...as Well As Portions Of Central
Missouri...southeastern Kansas And The Panhandles Of Oklahoma And
Texas. Heavy Snow Warnings And Winter Storm Warnings Have Been
Discontinued For Much Of Utah And Northwestern Colorado Where Snow
And Blowing Advisories Are Now In Effect For The Higher Terrain.

Winter Storm Watches Remain In Effect For Portions Of Western
Texas...eastern Nebraska...iowa...eastern
Kansas...missouri...western Illinois...new York. Winter Weather
Advisories Are In Effect For Portions Of New Mexico...western
Texas...eastern Iowa...western Illinois...eastern New York...and
Southern Vermont.

Flood And Flash Flood Warnings Are In Effect For Portions Of
Central Arkansas...and For Nine Counties South Of Dallas/forth
Worth Texas.

Flood And Flash Flood Watches Are In Effect For Portions Of
Eastern Arkansas...western Tennessee...southern
Kansas...illinois...much Of Western Kentuky And Southern
Ohio...and Western Pennsylvania.

At 3 Pm Cst...a Strong Cold Front Extended From Southeastern
Canada Southwest Through The Ohio Valley And Into The Southern
Plains. This Boundary Has A Very Sharp Temperature Contrast With
Warm Moist Air Ahead Of The Front And Cold Arctic Air In Its Wake.
As This System Continues To Push South And East Heavy Rain Will Be
Possible Ahead Of The Front While Areas To The North And West Of
The Boundary Will Experience A Mixure Of Heavy Snow...sleet...and
Freezing Rain.

...selected Storm Snow Totals In Inches From Thursday Through 3 Pm
Cst Saturday...

...wyoming...

Encampment 16.0
Saratoga 20 Se 12.0
Saratoga 6.0
Rawlins 4.0
Warren Afb 4.0
Baggs 3.0

...nevada...

Great Basin Nat Park 12.0
Pioche 8.0
Ely 7.0

...utah...

Tooele 17.0
Salem 14.0
Brian Head 12.0
Monticello 12.0
Brighton Crest 11.0
Cedar City 10.5
Santaquin 10.0
Snowbird 9.5
North Salt Lake 5.5

...colorado...

Telluride 18.0
Ouray 9 Ssw 13.5
Maybell 47 Nw 10.0
Wolf Creek Pass 9 Ne 9.0
Mesa 9.0
Meeker 8.5
Pagosa Springs 8.0
Craig 8.0
Silverton 7.0

...new Mexico...

Chama 5.0
Red River 4.0
Capulin 3.0
Clayton 1.7

...texas...

Miami 2.0
Dalhart 2.0
Vega 1.5
Guymon 1.5

...missouri...

Columbia 3.2
Iron Gates 2.8

...selected Freezing Rain Ice Accumulations In Inches Through 3 Pm
Cst Saturday...

...kansas...

Farlington 1.50
Fort Scott 1.00
Cherokee 0.50
Sedan 0.50
Iola 0.25
Independence 0.25
Winfield 0.25

...missouri...

Springfield 1.25
Dixon 1.00
Warsaw 1.00
Lamar 1.00
Walnut Grove 0.50
Pittsburg 0.50

...oklahoma...

Eufaula 1.50
Porter 0.75
Pawhuska 0.50

...illinois...

Altona 1.00
Chathan 0.75
Athens 0.75
Delavan 0.50
Lewistown 0.50
Grafton 0.50

...selected Sleet Accumulations In Inches Through 8 Am Cst
Saturday...

...oklahoma...

Vinita 2.00
Pawnee 1.50
Miami 1.00
Lanapah 1.00
Okemah 1.00
Bartlesville 1.00
Pawhuska 0.50
Copan 0.50

...texas...

Pampa 1.00
White Deer 1.00
Claude 1.00
Amarillo 0.50
Vega 0.50
Canadian 0.50
Lefors 0.50

...kansas...

Fredonia 2.00
Sedan 2.00
Parsons 2.00
Chanute 2.00
Hale 1.30
Caney 1.25
Cherryvale 1.10

...missouri...

Sedalia 3.00
Clinton 3.00
Lowry City 2.10
California 2.00
Warrensburg 2.00
Butler 2.00
Laurie 2.00
Cross Timbers 2.00
Lamar 2.00
Kingsville 2.00

...illinois...

Payson 2.00
Mount Sterling 1.00
Griggsville 1.00
Colchester 0.75
Augusta 0.75
Macomb 0.75

...significant Rainfall Totals In Inches As Of 3 Pm Cst
Saturday...

...texas...

Dallas 3.97
Austin 2.70
Lewisville 2.28
Blue Ridge 2.10
Dallas Redbird Airport 2.00
Mckinney Municipal 1.91
University Park 1.96
Carrollton 1.88

...oklahoma...

Clayton 3.05
Big Cedar 3.01
Antlers 2.92
Panama 2.71
Farris 2.44
Tahlequah 2.08
Eldon 2.01
Afton 1.67
Muskogee/davis Field 1.64
Mcalester Regional 1.47

...missouri...

Oakville 2.60
Rolla 2.56
Springfield 2.31
Kirkwood 2.19
Brentwood 1.72
Saint Louis/lambert 1.48

...arkansas...

Williams Junction 2.42
Winfrey 2.39
Wye 2.34
Martindale 2.33
Mulberry 2.19
Dutch Mills 1.73
Fayetteville 1.64

...indiana...

Clay City 2.20
Gosport 2.14
Martinsville 2.00
Indiana 1.81

...illinois...

Mascoutah 2.03
Bellville 1.95
Effingham 1.69
Shelbyville 1.50

...kentucky...

Beaverlick 1.07
Warsaw 0.99


At 3 Pm Cst...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Showed A
Broad Region Of Precipitation From The Southern Plains Through The
Central Mississippi And Ohio Valleys And Into The Mid-atlantic. A
Mixture Of Snow...freezing Rain...and Sleet Was Affecting Portions
Of The Central Plains And Great Lakes. Along And South Of The Cold
Front...the Precipitation Was Falling As Rain. Across Sections Of
The Central And Southern Rockies Scattered Snow Showers Were
Occurring.

Across Portions Of The Southern Plains And Areas Of The Lower
Mississippi Valley Total Rain Accumulations May Reach 4 To 6
Inches By Tuesday Night. Freezing Rain Ice Accumulations Of 1/4 To
Greater Than 1 Inch Are Possible Across Parts Of The Southern And
Central Plains And The Mississippi Valley. Additionally...snow
Accumulations Of 4 To 6 Inches Are Possible Across Parts Of The
Central Plains...midwest...and Northeast.

The Next Storm Summary Will Be Issued By The Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center At 9 Pm Cst Saturday. Please Refer To Your Local
National Weather Service Office For Additional Information On This
Event.

[BestWxMan]

No one has mentioned anything about the ice storm potential for SW Louisiana or North Louisiana. Just curious what the other mets in here think.

[ROLLTIDE]

I don't see much of a threat for LA with this storm. There will be a couple of more deep south threats before the end of the month

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

[LoopTech]

Caddo-bossier-de Soto-nacogdoches-
Including The Cities Of...shreveport...bossier City...mansfield...
Nacogdoches
509 Am Cst Sun Jan 14 2007

...ice Storm Warning In Effect From 7 Pm This Evening To 12 Pm
Cst Monday...

The National Weather Service In Shreveport Has Issued An Ice
Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From 7 Pm This Evening To
12 Pm Cst Monday.

An Arctic Cold Front Has Moved To Near A Hot Springs Arkansas To
Shreveport Louisiana And Lufkin Texas. This Front Will Be Followed
By Much Colder Air During The Day And Temperatures Will Be
Dropping To Near And Below Freezing During The Evening And
Overnight. Light To Sometimes Moderate Rain Is Expected To Occur
Resulting In Freezing Rain Which Lead To Very Hazardous Driving
Conditions On Bridges And Overpasses...and Accumulations On Trees
And Power Lines May Disrupt Power. For This Reason... Preparations
Need To Be Made On Sunday For A Possible Freezing Rain Event
Across Much Of Northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma... And Parts
Of Southwest Arkansas And Northwest Louisiana. The Freezing Rain
Will Work Its Way From West To East Over The Area As Temperatures
Drop.

An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are
Expected. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations Will Make
Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged.
Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You Must
Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your
Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will
Likely Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That
Add To The Danger.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0059.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...OK AND NE TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 141251Z - 141645Z

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FROM FAR SRN KS TO SCNTRL OK. FURTHER
SOUTH IN SRN OK AND NE TX...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE
OF PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM .05 TO .15 THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. NLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL REINFORCE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 18 TO 20
DEGREES F IN FAR SRN KS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES F NEAR THE RED RIVER.
12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND OUN SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND
2500-3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH TEMPS AS WARM AS +7.0
CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NW OK AND SRN KS WHERE THE WARM LAYER IS NOT AS THICK.
IN ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE COVERAGE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MIDDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE FWD 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER
FROM JUST ABOVE THE GROUND TO ABOUT 800 MB WITH +12 CELSIUS NEAR 850
MB. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG WHICH
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT BURSTS OF HEAVY
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
APPEARS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AS THE
STRONGER FORCING EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST AREAS IN NORTH TX AND FAR SRN OK SHOULD RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE WITH A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 01/14/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0058.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 141239Z - 141845Z

A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH SLEET THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE IN SRN LOWER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY 18Z.

A REGION OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY WAS SUPPORTING A LARGE OF MIXED PRECIP OVER NRN
IN/NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI. THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.25 IN FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. RECENT SFC OBS AND THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED A
SUFFICIENTLY SMALL ENOUGH ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT SLEET WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE NORTH OF I-94. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STEADY LIGHT TO MDT PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AROUND 18Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/14/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0060.gif



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NY...MA AND FAR SRN VT/NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 141325Z - 141730Z

EPISODES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY EWD INTO FAR SRN VT/NH AND MA.
HRLY ACCUMULATIONS RATES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.


ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND FAR WRN
NY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER SRN QUEBEC. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JHW TO 40 N POU TO ORH.
NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE MAY OCCUR AS WAA INCREASES ...BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE AREA...THE OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING ISOTHERM SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIP...WITH HRLY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS RATES
UP TO 0.10 IN. WITHIN THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...SLEET MAY MIX WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN. MORE STEADY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT OF MI INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 15-17Z AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AT
THAT TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 01/14/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX543 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-142345-HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...MADISONVILLE. ..HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON. ..CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND. ..DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PR AIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON543 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007...SERIOUS THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTTEXAS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTOWEDNESDAY MORNING...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA THISAFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS COLD AIR WILL PERSISTFOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK.PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCESWILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE AND LEADTO PERIODS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST DATA AND ADJUST THE FORECASTACCORDINGLY...THIS IS HOW THE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EVOLVE:SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY ANDPOSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A BRENHAM TOTRINITY LINE. AS THIS OCCURS...RAIN WILL BEGIN FREEZING AS ITHITS THE GROUND. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BEON ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TRAVEL WILLBECOME HAZARDOUS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED FORTHIS AREA. LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL PREVAIL SOUTH OFTHIS LINE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.MONDAY NIGHT...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALMOSTALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH THENIGHT CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OFSOUTHEAST TEXAS.TUESDAY...INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AT OR JUSTBELOW FREEZING RESULTING IN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THISWILL LEAD POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE. INADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...TREES ANDPOWERLINES WILL INCREASINGLY BE AT RISK OF FALLING.UNFORTUNATELY THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ANDOVERRUNNING DISTURBANCES PROLONGING THE CHANCES FOR FROZENPRECIPITATION. SOME COMPUTER MODELS DO GRADUALLY SHIFT THE HIGHERMOISTURE LEVELS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILLREMAIN HIGH AROUND THE LARGE POPULATION AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 10AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO IFAND WHEN THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT WILL OCCUR.IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVEFREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT RESULTING MAINLY INRAIN...THOUGH A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY INTERMITTENTLY BE MIXED IN.WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE ABOVEFREEZING AREAWIDE BRINGING AN END TO THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION...THOUGHHAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD STILL LINGER.ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 1/2 INCH MAY OCCUR IF TEMPERATURESTRULY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND THE UPPERLEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE AS FORECASTED. WIND CHILL INDEX VALUESAS LOW AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTSAND PETS AND MAKE ANY OTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZEYOUR PROPERTY. CHECK ON THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS AND THE ELDERLYTO MAKE SURE THEY ARE PREPARED SHOULD THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENTMATERIALIZE. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY THOSE THAT MUSTVENTURE OUTSIDE. IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE...WEAR PROTECTIVE CLOTHINGTO STAY DRY AND WARM AND MAKE CERTAIN ALL EXTREMITIES ARE COVERED.WINTER STORM WATCHES COULD BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH LATER TODAYOR TONIGHT AND BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS AS THE WINTERY MIX BECOMESIMMINENT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTSTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE START OF THEUPCOMING WEEK.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
1008 Am Cst Sun Jan 14 2007

Winter Storm Conditions An Increasing Possibility Starting On Monday.

.discussion...
Not A Whole Lot Of Changes Made On The Morning Update. We Did Put Out
A Dense Fog Advisory Through Noon For The Southern Two-thirds Of The
Area...bays And Nearshore Waters Due To Numerous Reports Of Visibilities
At 1/4 Mile Or Less. We May Need To Extend This Npw After Noon. The
Shallow Cold Front Continues To Make Slow Progress Toward The Upper
Coast With The Boundary Probably Extending From Just East Of Corrigan
To Around Liberty To League City To Between Angleton And Bay City And
Then Off The Coast Around Matagorda Bay. Morning Models Continue To
Be Performing Poorly (and That`s Putting It Nicely!) With The Frontal
Position And Future Movement. 12z Runs In So Far Still Have The Front
Moving Back To The North Today With Iah Warming Into The Lower 60s On
South Winds Around 10 Mph. This Will Not Happen! Current Forecast Has
The Front Moving All The Way Off The Coast This Morning And Staying
Offshore And Will Make No Changes To This Thinking. Colder Air That
Will Create Our Frozen Precip Event Will Begin Working Its Way Into
The Northern Portions Of Southeast Texas Later Tonight. Readings Should
Get Cold Enough During The Day On Monday For The Winter Weather Event
To Begin. A Winter Storm Watch Is Out For Our Northern Counties Beginning
Monday Afternoon. Will Evaluate Everything This Afternoon And Make
Adjustments (maybe Beginning The Watch A Little Earlier?) If Needed.
The Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through 4 Pm This Afternoon
For Northern Counties Where Anywhere From 1 To Close To 4 Inches Of
Rain Fell Late Yesterday Afternoon And Overnight. Although There Are
No Rains Falling Right Now...anything That Does Develop Across Already
Wet Grounds This Afternoon Has The Potential To Lead To Flooding.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0061.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 141742Z - 142345Z

MDT TO HVY SN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL NEB WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
RATES WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR...
WITH LIGHTER HOURLY AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN BETWEEN THE BANDS.

THE ONGOING BANDING ACROSS NEB COINCIDES VERY WELL WITH A
INTENSIFYING AXIS OF 700-500MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED IN
LATEST RUC AND NAM-WRF MODELS. THIS SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF MESOSCALE
ASCENT WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD
FROM ERN CO AND LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15/00Z. WITH MID LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING IN A
THERMODYNAMIC REGIME FAVORING EFFICIENT WATER VAPOR TO ICE TRANSPORT
/-12C TO -17C/...AND A DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD EASILY REACH AN INCH PER HOUR AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS
FROM SW TO NE.

SREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL NEB INTO SERN SD BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT PERHAPS A SECONDARY AXIS OF HVY SN MAY BE
EVOLVING FARTHER SOUTH...ALONG A MCK-OFK-SUX LINE. GIVEN CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF THIS BAND TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW...THE SREF
GUIDANCE MAY BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GREATEST SNOWFALL RATE
POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 01/14/2007


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

[Christina514]

National Weather Service Northern Indiana
402 Pm Est Sun Jan 14 2007

...ice Storm Expected Across Southern Lower Michigan Tonight Into
Monday Morning...

.a Developing Low Pressure System Over The Lower Mississippi
Valley Will Continue To Strengthen And Move Rapidly Through The
Ohio Valley Into The Eastern Great Lakes Tonight Into Monday. A
Deep Supply Of Moisture Streaming North In Advance Of This Low
Pressure Will Spread Across The Region Tonight And Bring Another
Round Of Moderate To Heavy Precipitation. Meanwhile Northeast
Winds In The Low Levels Of The Atmosphere Will Continue To Supply
A Shallow Layer Of Below Freezing Air To Southern Lower Michigan
And The Bordering Counties Of Extreme Northern Indiana And
Northwest Ohio. This Will Set The Stage For Another Round Of
Freezing Rain.

In Extreme Northern Indiana And Northwest Ohio...temperatures
Will Be Very Close To Freezing...which Will Likely Limit Ice
Accumulation. Farther North In Southern Lower Michigan
Temperatures Are Expected To Be A Few Degrees Cooler Which Is
Expected To Allow More Efficient Ice Formation With Significant
Accumulations Of Ice Possible.

Berrien-cass Mi-st. Joseph Mi-branch-hillsdale-
Including The Cities Of...niles...benton Harbor...st. Joseph...
Buchanan...dowagiac...cassopolis...sturgis...three Rivers...
Coldwater...hillsdale
402 Pm Est Sun Jan 14 2007

...ice Storm Warning In Effect Until 12 Pm Est Monday...

The National Weather Service In Northern Indiana Has Issued An
Ice Storm Warning...which Is In Effect Until 12 Pm Est Monday.
This Upgrades The Winter Storm Watch That Was Previously In
Effect.

Freezing Rain Is Expected To Overspread Southern Lower Michigan
This Evening And Continue Through Midday Monday. Significant Ice
Accumulations Of Between A Quarter And A Half Inch Are Expected.
Some Sleet May Also Mix In At Times...but The Majority Of The
Precipitation Is Expected To Be In The Form Of Freezing Rain.

An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are
Expected. Significant Ice Accumulations Will Make Travel
Dangerous. Be Prepared For Icy Roads...especially On Untreated
Bridges And Overpasses. Ice Accumulations May Bring Tree Limbs
Down And Result In Power Outages. If Power Is Lost...exercise
Caution When Using Portable Generators Or Space Heaters. Never
Run A Generator Indoors And Ensure That Space Heaters Are
Properly Ventilated To Prevent Carbon Monoxide Poisoning.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

300 Pm Cst Sun Jan 14 2007


...serious Threat Of Winter Weather Across Portions Of Southeast
Texas Beginning Late Monday Afternoon And Persisting Into
Wednesday Morning...

...winter Storm Watch Has Been Issued For The Area North Of A
Brenham To Trinity Line Beginning Monday Afternoon...

Cold Arctic Air
Will Continue Filtering Into The Area Tonight And Through The Day
Monday. This Cold Air Will Persist For A Good Portion Of The Week.

Pacific And Gulf Moisture Along With Embedded Upper Level Disturbances
Will Continue To Overrun The Cold Airmass At The Surface And Lead
To Periods Of Frozen Precipitation Late Monday Afternoon Through
Wednesday Morning.

Though We Will Continue To Monitor The Latest Data And Adjust The Forecast
Accordingly...this Is How The Scenario Is Currently Forecast To Evolve:

Surface Temperatures Should Fall Through The Day Monday And
Possibly Below Freezing By Late Afternoon North Of A Brenham To
Trinity Line. As This Occurs...rain Will Begin Freezing As It
Hits The Ground. The Primary Threat For Ice Accumulation Will Be
On Elevated Structures Such As Bridges And Overpasses. Travel Will
Become Hazardous. A Winter Storm Watch Has Already Been Posted For
This Area. Liquid Precipitation Should Still Prevail South Of
This Line Until Monday Night.

Monday Night...freezing Temperatures Are Expected Across Almost
All Of Southeast Texas Except Locations Near The Immediate Coast.
Rain Should Transition To Freezing Rain And Sleet Through The
Night Creating Hazardous Travel Conditions Across Almost All Of
Southeast Texas.

Tuesday...inland Temperatures Are Expected To Hover At Or Just
Below Freezing Resulting In A Mix Of Freezing Rain And Sleet. This
Will Lead To Potentially Dangerous Accumulations Of Ice. In
Addition To The Hazardous Travel Conditions...trees And
Powerlines Will Increasingly Be At Risk Of Falling.

Unfortunately This Scenario Does Not Appear To Change Much Through
Wednesday Morning With Freezing Temperatures Continuing And
Overrunning Disturbances Prolonging The Chances For Frozen
Precipitation. Some Computer Models Do Gradually Shift The Higher
Moisture Levels Further South During The Day Tuesday...but Still
Remain High Around The Large Population Area Along Interstate 10
And The Houston Metro Area. Forecast Confidence Is Low As To If
And When This Southward Shift Will Occur.

Immediate Coastal Locations Are Expected To Remain Just Above
Freezing Through The Entire Event Resulting Mainly In
Rain...though A Few Sleet Pellets May Intermittently Be Mixed In.

Wednesday...temperatures Are Currently Forecast To Rise Above
Freezing Areawide Bringing An End To The Frozen Precipitation...though
Hazardous Travel Conditions Could Still Linger.

Ice Accumulations Upwards Of 1/2 Inch May Occur If Temperatures
Truly Remain Below Freezing Through The Day Tuesday And The Upper
Level Disturbances Arrive As Forecasted. Wind Chill Index Values
As Low As 10 To 20 Degrees Are Possible Monday Night Through
Wednesday Morning.

Residents Across Southeast Texas Should Shelter Sensitive Plants
And Pets And Make Any Other Preparations Necessary To Winterize
Your Property. Check On Those With Special Needs And The Elderly
To Make Sure They Are Prepared Should This Winter Weather Event
Materialize. Precautions Should Be Taken By Those That Must
Venture Outside. If You Must Go Outside...wear Protective Clothing
To Stay Dry And Warm And Make Certain All Extremities Are Covered.

Winter Storm Watches Could Be Expanded Further South Later Today
Or Tonight And Be Upgraded To Warnings As The Wintery Mix Becomes
Imminent. Please Monitor The Latest Updated Weather Forecasts
Through The Remainder Of The Weekend And On Into The Start Of The
Upcoming Week.


$$

[ROLLTIDE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
834 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007


.DISCUSSION...
FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING SOUTH...AGAIN...THIS EVENING AND AT
8PM WAS JUST SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...EDNA LINE.
BY MIDNIGHT IT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH MID 30S CROCKETT-LAKE SOMERVILLE... NEAR 40
HOUSTON AREA TO BAY CITY AND MID 40S ON THE COAST. CONVECTION (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/convection.htm) HAS
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT NOTHING LIKE LAST NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE CAP (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/cap.htm) IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPPER FLOW
MORE PARALLEL THE FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) AND NOT AS STRONG. PUSH OF COLDER AIR NOW
MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/shwv.htm) CURRENTLY IN
WEST TEXAS EXITS THE STATE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN SPITE OF
COMPLEXITY OF SCENARIO...CURRENT GRIDS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/grid.htm) REFLECT ONGOING WEATHER AND NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. 30

[ROLLTIDE]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service San Angelo Tx
1003 Pm Cst Sun Jan 14 2007

...wintry Precipitation Is Ending Across The Western Big Country
And Concho Valley...

.a Large Area Of Freezing Rain And Sleet Covers Much Of West
Central Texas Southeast Of A Line From Throckmorton To Abilene To
Big Lake. Southeast Of This Line...additional Accumulations Of Ice
Can Be Expected Into The Morning Hours Monday. Northwest Of The
Line Precipitation Has Ended For The Most Part And Little If Any
Additional Accumulations Of Ice Are Expected. However With The Ice
Already Covering Roads And Other Exposed Surfaces...and Wind
Picking Up In The 20 To 25 Mph Range Producing Wind Chills To Near
Zero At Times...a Winter Weather Advisory Will Replace The Warning
Where Precipitation Has Ended.

Txz065-066-071>073-076>078-099-114-127-128-139-140-154-155-
168>170-151300-
/o.con.ksjt.is.w.0001.000000t0000z-070115t1800z/
Coke-runnels-irion-tom Green-concho-crockett-schleicher-sutton-
Throckmorton-shackelford-taylor-callahan-coleman-brown-mcculloch-
San Saba-menard-kimble-mason-
Including The Cities Of...robert Lee...bronte...ballinger...
Winters...mertzon...san Angelo...eden...ozona...eldorado...
Sonora...throckmorton...woodson...albany...abilene ...clyde...
Baird...cross Plains...coleman...brownwood...brady...san Saba...
Menard...junction...mason
1003 Pm Cst Sun Jan 14 2007

...ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 12 Pm Cst Monday...

An Ice Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 12 Pm Cst Monday.

Light Freezing Rain And Sleet Will Continue Across The Area Into
The Early Morning Hours Monday. The Precipitation Is Forecast To
End Across All Of The Big Country And Concho Valley By 3 Am. Additional
Ice Accumulations Of A Quarter Of An Inch Will Be Possible Through
Early Monday Morning...especially Along And Southeast Of A Ozona
To San Angelo To Abilene Line...including Brownwood And Brady.

Farther South Along The Interstate 10 Corridor Temperatures Have
Recently Reached Freezing...and Freezing Rain Will Begin To Cause
Ice Accumulations On Exposed Surfaces. Ice Accumulations Near One
Quarter Of An Inch May Be Possible From Junction To Sonora To
Ozona... Especially On Bridges And Overpasses...as Temperatures
Continue To Fall Below Freezing Late Tonight. The Precipitation May
Linger Well Into Tuesday Across The Northwest Hill Country
Including Junction. Thus The Warning May Have To Be Extended
Across The Northwest Hill Country Later Tonight Or Tomorrow.

An Ice Storm Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are
Expected Or Occurring. Significant Amounts Of Ice Accumulations
Will Make Travel Dangerous Or Impossible. Travel Is Strongly
Discouraged. Commerce Will Likely Be Severely Impacted. If You
Must Travel...keep An Extra Flashlight...food...and Water In Your
Vehicle In Case Of An Emergency. Ice Accumulations And Winds Will
May Lead To Snapped Power Lines And Falling Tree Branches That Add
To The Danger.

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX537 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIPITATIONINCREASING...TXZ200-213-226-227-151945-/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0002.070116T0000Z-070116T1200Z/FORT BEND-HARRIS-LIBERTY-WHARTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EL CAMPO...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...MISSOU RI CITY...PASADENA...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG... SUGAR LAND...TOMBALL...WHARTON537 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATETONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGHLATE TONIGHT.A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREATHROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL AREEXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH MOST OF THE THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVELIMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATIONTHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATERTONIGHT AND TUESDAY.TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SLOWLY FALLINGTHROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING LATER THISEVENING AND TONIGHT.AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...RAIN WILL BEGIN FREEZINGON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. INITIALLY...THE THREAT FOR ICEACCUMULATION WILL BE ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES ANDOVERPASSES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. AS TUESDAY MORNINGAPPROACHES...A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLEAND MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITIONTO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...TREES AND POWERLINES WILL INCREASINGLYBE AT RISK OF FALLING.THIS WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY OR AWARNING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTFROZEN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASECONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPINGWEATHER SITUATION.$$

[LoopTech]

Hempstead-miller-cass-marion-smith-gregg-harrison-cherokee-rusk-
Panola-nacogdoches-
Including The Cities Of...hope...texarkana...atlanta...
Jefferson...tyler...longview...marshall...rusk...h enderson...
Carthage...nacogdoches
1158 Am Cst Mon Jan 15 2007

...freezing Rain Advisory In Effect Until 4 Pm Cst This
Afternoon...

The National Weather Service In Shreveport Has Extended The
Freezing Rain Advisory Until 4 Pm This Afternoon.

Very Light Freezing Rain Will Continue Across The Advisory Area
This Afternoon. With Temperatures Hovering Near Or Slightly
Below The Freezing Mark...some Additional Ice Accumulation Is
Expected Before The Rain Moves East And South Of The Region Late
This Afternoon Into This Evening. Expect Additional Ice
Accumulations Mainly Less Than One Quarter Of An Inch Across The
Advisory Area This Afternoon.

Even Light Freezing Rain Will Likely Lead To Very Hazardous
Driving Conditions On Bridges And Overpasses...and Slight
Accumulations On Trees And Power Lines Are Expected. A Freezing
Rain Advisory Means That Periods Of Freezing Rain Or Freezing
Drizzle Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Slippery
Roads. Slow Down And Use Caution While Driving.

[ROLLTIDE]

If anyone has pics of the ice and snow feel free to post them or email me admin@hardcoreweather.com and I will post them for you.

I expect the ice storm warning to be moved further south and west in SE Texas.

[Christina514]

The pics post real easy as long as they aren't too big. I haven't had any problems with them. Thanx Roll!!

[mom2grls72]

Right now..it is 37 degrees and has not gotten above that today. The predicted high was 40..so we will see. I am actually on the north side of Houston, so I suspect our temps are going to be slightly lower than those in the city of Houston and south of I-10. No ice yet, but we have had our share of that light rain that freezes so easily.

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX316 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007...THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUES TOGROW ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...TXZ200-213-226-227-161200-/O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0002.070116T0000Z-070116T1200Z/FORT BEND-HARRIS-LIBERTY-WHARTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EL CAMPO...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...MISSOU RI CITY...PASADENA...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG... SUGAR LAND...TOMBALL...WHARTON316 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THISEVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A PRECIPITATION LULL HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGIN THE WATCH AREA...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVEINTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON SHOULDBEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL TOWARD FREEZING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THEDISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...ANYRAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THESURFACE. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURESHOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING LEVEL.INITIALLY...THE THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEON ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TRAVEL WILL BECOMEHAZARDOUS. A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLEON TUESDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITIONTO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...TREES AND POWERLINES WILL INCREASINGLY BEAT RISK OF FALLING.IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...ICEACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH MAY OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SCENARIOMAY OCCUR...SOME COUNTIES IN THE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORYOR A WARNING THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FROZENPRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE CONTINUETO MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif

[Race2Beach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
214 Pm Cst Mon Jan 15 2007

.discussion...
Only Spots Receiving Any Precip So Far This Afternoon Is Across Our
North And Northwest Counties. Area Obs Are Showing Mixed Precipitation
With Temperatures Hovering At Or A Degree Or Two Below Freezing. Further
South...temperatures Are In The Mid To Upper 30s. For The Coastal
Counties...readings Range From The Upper 30s To Around 40 Inland...and
In The Lower 40s At The Coast. Up North Will Continue To Be The Area
At Greatest Risk During The Remaining Afternoon Hours For Icy Conditions
To Develop Or Worsen. As We Get Into The Nighttime Hours...temperatures
Will Steadily Fall And Expect Readings At Or Below 32 Degrees Across
Much Of Inland Southeast Texas. The Immediate Coast Should Remain Above
Freezing Tonight. As Freezing Values Are Reached...we Will Watch To
See When And How Much Precip Begins To Develop As The Next Northeast
Moving Disturbance Begins To Head This Way. Water Vapor Satellite Loops
Shows Plenty Of Moisture Streaming Toward Our Area From The Southwest.
At This Time...the Ice Storm Warning Will Remain In Effect For The North
And Northwest. The Winter Storm Watch Will Continue For The Central
Areas...but Will Add Jackson And Matagorda Counties To The Mix Due
To Their Afternoon Temperatures Already Falling Into The Mid 30s. Some
Counties In The Watch May Need To Be Upgraded To A Warning This Evening
Or Overnight Based Mainly On When And How Much Development Occurs Out
To Our West. Because Temperatures Are Expected To Remain At Or Below
Freezing All Day Tuesday Across Inland Areas...both The Ice Storm Warning
And The Winter Storm Watch Will Likely Be Extended Past 6 Am Tomorrow
Morning. Although Precip Chances Are Expected To Begin To Diminish A
Little Tuesday Night And Wednesday...temperatures Will Again Be At Or
Below Freezing For Much Of The Inland Areas Resulting In A Continuing
Threat For A Frozen Mess. The Cold Temperatures Will Persist...but Possibly
Diminishing Moisture Levels Could Significantly Lower The Threat For
This Wintry Mix. We Shall See. Finally...temperatures Should Be On The
Increase Wednesday Afternoon To Convert Anything Left Falling To Rain.
Lingering Moisture Wednesday Night And Early Thursday Morning Could
End Up Giving Inland Locations Their Last Shot Of A Frozen Mix With
This Event. Late Thursday Morning And Beyond...temperatures Will Be
Too Warm To Support Any Frozen Precip. By Friday...another Cold Front
Should Move Through The Area...but Temperatures Behind This Boundary
Should Remain Above Freezing. Will Keep A Chance Of Showers In The Forecast
Thursday Afternoon Through The Upcoming Weekend. Both The Spshgx And
The Wswhgx Will Be Updated By 4 Pm.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://images.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/RadarLoop/sat_None_anim.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA738 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-161100-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...DERIDDE R...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON...B EAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE738 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007...WINTRY MIX OF PPRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYNIGHT...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF WARM PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRIDINGCOLD ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANATHIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSSINTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. PATCHYLIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT NOACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATEDROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SOUTHEASTTEXAS...WHERE ANY STANDING WATER MAY GLAZE OVER. A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ANDCENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THAT REASON.COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGHSREMAINING IN THE 30S. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL AGAINOVERRIDE THIS COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSSSOUTHEAST TEXAS AND TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS LOUISIANA. LIGHT RAINFALLING INTO THE SHALLOW COLD DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCESOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAINGENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED...MAINLY ON EXPOSED BRIDGES...OVER-PASSES AND ELEVATEDROADWAYS...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SOME SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. THEWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OFTHE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL END WEDNESDAY ASTEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.WINTER WEATHER FORECASTING IS CHALLENGING AND CAN CHANGE AT ANY TIME.THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHERRADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPINGWINTER WEATHER SITUATION.$$

[Shoshana]

29F ... and drizzle. Needless to say, it's freezing drizzle. Looks like we're getting the worst of the storm for the next 48 hours. I have never been in an ice storm that lasted this long. We had sleet and icy rain over night last night and this morning.

The utility company has already warned us that most of the city might lose power at some point. Joy!

[ROLLTIDE]

Anyone got the new disco from the Houston NWS ?

[ROLLTIDE]

Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX448 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2007...THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND ICE ACCUMULATIONSCONTINUES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND AGAINTONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TXZ200-213-226-227-235-236-161500-/O.NEW.KHGX.IS.W.0002.070117T0000Z-070117T1500Z//O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070116T1500Z/FORT BEND-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY CITY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...MISSOU RI CITY...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PIERCE...RICHMOND...R OSENBERG...SUGAR LAND...TOMBALL...WHARTON448 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2007...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CSTWEDNESDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THISMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED ANICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL9 AM CST THIS MORNING.PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ASONE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUNDOF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHERDISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULDREMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY... FALLING TONEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONSMAINLY NORTH OF A CLEVELAND TO SEALY LINE. THIS FREEZE LINE SHOULDPROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE STOPPINGNORTH OF A LIBERTY TO BAY CITY LINE. THIS LINE SHOULD MARK THESOUTHERN EXTENT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE MOST AT RISK TONIGHT AS ANY RAINTHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE ON CONTACTWITH THE SURFACE.INITIALLY...THE THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TRAVEL WILLBECOME HAZARDOUS AS A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILLBE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT ICEACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUSTRAVEL...TREES AND POWER LINES WILL INCREASINGLY BE AT RISK OFFALLING.ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH MAY OCCURTHROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASECONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS ON THISDEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.$$

[mom2grls72]

The map on post 193 shows snow in Austin? is that true? or is that just a forecast model?

The ice has not hit us yet here in Houston, but I am anticipating it by 4-5ish this afternoon as all of the weather maps here are showing a huge mass of rain coming in from the west. It is almost noon and it just now hit 35.

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1215 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007LAZ056>070-170300-ASSUMPTION-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-1215 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007...A CHANGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES HAS ARRIVED...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTOTHE LOWER 40S THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGHTHE DAY.FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...WINTER-TYPEPRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAINMARGINALLY WARM TODAY. A GENERAL COVERAGE OF INTERMITTENT LIGHT COLDRAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERINGOFF.HOWEVER...MOTORISTS TRAVELING TO BATON ROUGE...HAMMOND...COVINGTON...SLIDELL...OR BILOXI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN ALERTTO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IFTRAVEL IS NECESSARY AS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE INTHESE AREAS. ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...BUT ELEVATED ROADWAYSAND BRIDGES COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FORM LATE TONIGHT.DESPITE A FEW DAYS OF FORECAST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ATTHIS TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS GENERALLYSOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA TIDAL LAKES BUT ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST MAYOCCUR THIS MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS WELL AWAY FROM THE METRO AREAAND LAKES.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
134 Pm Cst Tue Jan 16 2007

Alz051>055-061-062-msz067-075-076-078-079-170300-
Baldwin Inland-choctaw-clarke-george-greene-mobile Inland-monroe-
Perry-stone-washington-wayne-wilcox-
134 Pm Cst Tue Jan 16 2007

...brief Periods Of Light Sleet Possible Today...

...brief Periods Of Light Sleet Or Light Freezing Rain Possible
Late Tonight...

A Strong Arctic Airmass Continues Across Southeast Mississippi And
Southwest Alabama Today With Temperatures Dropping Into And Through
The Middle 30s. Patchy Light Rains Will Continue Across The Region
Into The Overnight Hours Before Diminishing Late Tonight. Periodic
Patches Of Very Light Sleet Will Also Be Noted At Times. As
Temperatures Drop Into The Lower 30s Overnight...the Patchy Light
Rain May Freeze On Contact In Spots...mainly On A Few Exposed
Elevated Surfaces Such As Bridges And Overpasses

[ROLLTIDE]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_400x300c/SIR/inmaSIRTXE.gif

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL415 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007ALZ051>055-061-062-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-170400-BALDWIN INLAND-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-PERRY-STONE-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-415 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007...BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLETONIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ANDSOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THEMIDDLE 30S. PATCHY LIGHT RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTOTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. PERIODICPATCHES OF VERY LIGHT SLEET WILL ALSO BE NOTED AT TIMES. ASTEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT...THE PATCHY LIGHTRAIN MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY ON EXPOSEDELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.WHILE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGHTONIGHT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORISOLATED SLICK PATCHES ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES LATE TODAY ANDTONIGHT.

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS345 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-170545-/O.NEW.KJAN.WW.Y.0001.070117T0300Z-070117T1500Z/RICHLAND-MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYVILLE...DELHI...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JON ESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON.. .RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DEC ATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL ...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBU TA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE. ..BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG345 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.A COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI TONIGHTRESULTING IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SLEETAND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHWEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOME LIGHTSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSESCAUSING SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...AND ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX753 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-236-170400-HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...MADISONVILLE. ..HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON. ..CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND. ..DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PR AIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...HUMBLE...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS753 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2007.NOW......ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW EXTENDSOVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM JUST ALONGTHE TEXAS COAST INLAND TO A LINE BETWEEN PALESTINE ANDKILEEN...AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BORDER. RAINFALLTOTALS WILL AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH ICEACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE INLANDCOUNTIES.

[LoopTech]

De Soto-red River-sabine La-natchitoches-winn-grant-caldwell-
La Salle-wood-upshur-marion-smith-gregg-harrison-cherokee-rusk-
Panola-nacogdoches-shelby-angelina-san Augustine-sabine Tx-
Including The Cities Of...mansfield...coushatta...many...
Natchitoches...winnfield...colfax...columbia...jen a...quitman...
Gilmer...jefferson...tyler...longview...marshall.. .rusk...
Henderson...carthage...nacogdoches...center...lufk in...
San Augustine...hemphill
537 Am Cst Wed Jan 17 2007

...winter Weather Advisory Now In Effect Until 3 Pm Cst This
Afternoon...

The Winter Weather Advisory Is Now In Effect Until 3 Pm Cst This
Afternoon.

A Mixture Of Snow And Sleet Is Expected Today Across Much Of Northeast
Texas...a Small Part Of Southwest Arkansas...and Northwest And North
Central Louisiana...generally South Of A Clarksville Texas...to
Texarkana Arkansas...and Homer To Marion Louisiana Line. Across This
Region...amounts Of Near One Quarter Of An Inch Up To An Inch May
Occur...but This Will Be Dependent On The Surface Temperatures.
Bridges...overpasses...and Elevated Highways Will Become Slippery.
The Precipitation Will Be Moving From West To East Over The Region
And Northeast Texas Will Have The Brunt Of The Event First Followed
Later During The Morning Across Southwest Arkansas...and Northwest
Louisiana...then Lastly North Central Louisiana By Late Morning Into
The Afternoon.

A Winter Weather Advisory Means That Periods Of Snow...sleet...or
Freezing Rain Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For
Slippery Roads. Use Caution While Driving And Do Not Use The
Vehicles Cruise Control System. Allow Extra Spacing Between
Vehicles For Needed Braking Distance.

Stay Tuned For Further Updates On This Winter Weather Event From
Your National Weather Service In Shreveport.

[ROLLTIDE]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
647 Am Cst Wed Jan 17 2007

Txz163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181300-
Austin-brazoria-brazos-burleson-chambers-colorado-fort Bend-
Galveston-grimes-harris-houston-jackson-liberty-madison-matagorda-
Montgomery-polk-san Jacinto-trinity-walker-waller-washington-
Wharton-
647 Am Cst Wed Jan 17 2007

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of Southeast Texas.

.day One...today And Tonight
With The Approach Of Another Upper Level Disturbance From The
Southwest This Afternoon And Tonight...the Possibility Of Frozen
Precipitation Will Continue Across The Northern Portions Of The
Area Today And Tonight. The Threat Of Wintry Precipitation Will Be
Decreasing Over The Southern Half Of Southeast Texas Late This
Morning As Temperatures Slowly Warm To Above Freezing. See The
Latest Winter Weather Message For More Details.

.days Two Through Seven...thursday Through Tuesday
The Chance Of Winter Weather Precipitation And Freezing
Temperatures Will Linger Across The Northern Half Of Southeast
Texas Through Thursday Morning.

.spotter Information Statement...
Spotter Activation Is Not Anticipated.

[toddrasmuson]

Sorry Guys I Have Been Away A Few Days Been Busy
Trying To Get A New Baron Radar System And Some
New Tools Working.. This Morning Reports Out Of
Dfw Area Of Widespread 3+ Inches Just Sw Of Ft Worth
Near Granbury... Watch The New Thread Ongoing About
This Wkend As I Will Have Info On There Soon And Try
Keeping It As Updated As Possible With My Views..

More Later

Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[ROLLTIDE]

mobile threat net ?

[toddrasmuson]

yeah the newer one threatnet plus i think it is, i talked with
a sales rep yesterday i think iam gonna get that one
still havent made my mind up yet

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC338 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREMENORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY....ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...SPREADING INTO A COLD AIRMASSTHAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEWENGLAND. SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLYTODAY...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT THE OUTSET ACROSS NORTHCAROLINA. THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL STEADILY TRANSITION OVER TOFREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OFICE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINAFOOTHILLS...WHILE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL AFFECT PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY.GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-181700-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070118T2300Z/FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILL E...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GA STONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE ...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CH ESTER...GREENWOOD338 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THISAFTERNOON...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THISAFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROMSTATESVILLE TO GREENVILLE TO CLARKESVILLE.A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINSEARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAINDURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL START TOAFFECT ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES AROUND DAYBREAK...WITHACCUMULATIONS BECOMING HEAVIER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING INTO THEEARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREA...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILLLIKELY REACH ONE QUARTER INCH BY THAT TIME.THE FREEZING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST ACROSS NORTHEASTGEORGIA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY ENDACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CAROLINAS BY EVENING.A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE WEIGHT OF THE ICECOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS RESULTING INSPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS TODAY.$$