If I were on the FL panhandle, I would be starting to get a little wary of this storm.

---

(08-28-2015 09:44 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  10 years ago today

Quote: As Hurricane Katrina intensified rapidly and reached Category Five
status that fateful Sunday, August 28 2005, forecaster Robert Ricks at
the National Weather Service in Slidell decided it was time to issue the
dreaded catastrophic damage statement.

Some thought it was a joke.

Some thought it was overhyped.

Many didn’t listen.

It turned out be very prophetic and unfortunately, very true.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED

STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING

INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR

HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE

CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE

OUTSIDE!

Amen.

(08-28-2015 10:06 AM)hurricaneguy Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 09:46 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  new cone is out and it's touching the GOM now

And with that track, I say goodnight Erika.

I thought you already said that last night...and again this morning...

Looking at the latest visible satellite loop, it appears what might be the center is completely exposed to the northwest of the main cloud canopy. We might be referring to this as the Remnants of Erika before too long.

fat lady is getting warmed up

(08-28-2015 10:56 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  fat lady is getting warmed up

Yup, and she is continues to drift west...

The Earth Wind Map is telling as to how poorly organized Erika is as compared to the trio in the Pacific Ocean.


   


   

Bryan Norcross

1 hr ·
Ericka Meets the Mountains

The chances of Florida getting hit by an intensifying hurricane are
lower today because the likelihood of Erika running into the giant
mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti is now much higher. As I
discussed the last couple of days, those mountains would be expected to
disrupt Erika’s circulation meaning that the system that emerges on the
other side is at best disorganized and perhaps completely disrupted.
It’s not out of the question that
Erika may regenerate before it gets to Florida, but its time will be
limited. Also, significantly disrupted systems take longer to
reorganize and strengthen than when the circulation stays intact, which
is unlikely considering the big mountains involved.


This doesn’t mean that significant weather is not likely in and around
Florida over the next several days. Erika or its remnants are still
coming toward the state with a LOT of rain and gusty wind, and will move
slowly up or near the peninsula. We’ll get a better idea of how much
rain in what areas and how much opportunity there is for intensification
tomorrow morning when we see what is left of the system after the
interaction with the high terrain.
There is also an increasing
chance that the center of the circulation, if it survives, will move
into the Gulf, which would give it a chance to strengthen some as it
moves north along the west coast of Florida. The atmospheric conditions
do not seem favorable for Erika to get super strong, but there could
still be flooding rain and other impacts.
In the short-term, of
course, our friends in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic
are going to have to deal with extremely heavy rain and winds strong
enough to do some damage and knock out power. The Bahamas and Cuba are
going to feel it as well, but the strength is an open question.

So for now peninsula Florida remains on alert for an impactful storm,
with flooding rain and some gusty winds, which could disrupt travel and
cause some power outages. How strong and well organized it will be is
an open question. We hope that the Caribbean mountains will knock it
out, but we can’t bet on it. We’ll know more tomorrow morning.

The phase "Too big to fail" comes to mind with Erika. The last few satellite passes look like she is actually getting more organized. Could that be possible? County officials in St Johns County (north-east Florida), told the emergency management folks at the nursing home that my wife works at, to expect 50 mph winds and 12" of rain. I'm not buying it.........yet!

Hey now I'm not that far off....yet. Im going by tomorrow morning.

(08-28-2015 10:47 AM)Her-icane Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 10:06 AM)hurricaneguy Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 09:46 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  new cone is out and it's touching the GOM now

And with that track, I say goodnight Erika.

I thought you already said that last night...and again this morning...

West now at 18mph