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Tropical Storm Erika
08-28-2015, 01:05 PM
Post: #141
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
JM's take...

Quote: Will Erika survive Hispaniola?
Erika's battle against dry air and high wind shear has caused the center of the storm to reform several times to the south of its original position, closer to the storm's heaviest thunderstorms. These southward shifts mean that Erika is now poised to track directly over mountainous Hispaniola island, whose highest peak exceeds 10,000 feet in height. This encounter will not go well for Erika, particularly since wind shear will remain a high 15 - 25 knots during the traverse, and dry air will continue to wrap into Erika's circulation during the crossing. These combined factors could lead to Erika's dissipation by Saturday morning. The traverse of the island may also cause the center to reform to the west of the island, which would then mean that Erika would encounter some of the high terrain of eastern Cuba. If Erika survives into Saturday morning, which I give a 50% chance of occurring, the storm may have time to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds before hitting South Florida. If Erika dissipates over Hispaniola Friday night, the storm could still reorganize into a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds before encountering South Florida. The upper low over Cuba that is bringing high wind shear to Erika today is forecast to weaken on Sunday, which should cause wind shear to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which would allow some modest strengthening of Erika. A trough of low pressure will turn Erika to the north on Monday, and it is possible this turn will occur just west of the Florida, bringing Erika northwards along the west coast of Florida and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday--as suggested by the 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) runs of the European and UKMET models. Regardless, much of Florida can expect heavy flooding rains from Erika Sunday through Tuesday
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08-28-2015, 01:09 PM
Post: #142
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
With the latest advisory, the NHC track looks positively ridiculous.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
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08-28-2015, 01:34 PM
Post: #143
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
[Image: Erika2.jpg]

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
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08-28-2015, 02:10 PM
Post: #144
Tropical Storm Erika
I am starting to think Erika is destined to survive and become a monster
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08-28-2015, 02:13 PM
Post: #145
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
(08-28-2015 02:10 PM)Smitter Wrote:  I am starting to think Erika is destined to survive and become a monster

Now why would you say a thing like that. Cool

/stupid
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08-28-2015, 02:47 PM
Post: #146
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
(08-28-2015 02:10 PM)Smitter Wrote:  I am starting to think Erika is destined to survive and become a monster
a monster joke of a storm Tongue

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08-28-2015, 02:49 PM (This post was last modified: 08-28-2015 08:08 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #147
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
models are shifting closer to me not that there will be anything left by then

[Image: storm_05.gif]

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08-28-2015, 02:53 PM
Post: #148
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
If you have donated over the years let me know and I will change your user title. Something happened when we switched forum software that messed up user titles. Thanks

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08-28-2015, 03:14 PM
Post: #149
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
(08-28-2015 02:53 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  If you have donated over the years let me know and I will change your user title. Something happened when we switched forum software that messed up user titles. Thanks
I did... I just want a reputation of 10 Big Grin

/stupid
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08-28-2015, 03:22 PM
Post: #150
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
(08-28-2015 03:14 PM)miamilisa Wrote:  
(08-28-2015 02:53 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  If you have donated over the years let me know and I will change your user title. Something happened when we switched forum software that messed up user titles. Thanks
I did... I just want a reputation of 10 Big Grin
That will cost extra Wink Tongue Thanks again

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