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TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 07:58 AM
Weatherunderground products
![[Image: at200806_5day.gif]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_5day.gif){kind=icon}
![[Image: at200806_windprob34]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_windprob34){kind=icon}
![[Image: at200806_surge.gif]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_surge.gif){kind=icon}
![[Image: at200806_alerts.gif]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_alerts.gif){kind=icon}
![[Image: at200806_radar.gif]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/at200806_radar.gif){kind=icon}
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![[Image: 144114W_sm.gif]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5_sm2+gif/144114W_sm.gif)
![[Image: 144114.gif]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608_PROB34_F120+gif/144114.gif)
![[Image: 144114R_sm.gif]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608R+gif/144114R_sm.gif)
![[Image: vis-l.jpg]](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg)
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![[Image: ir2-l.jpg]](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2-l.jpg)
![[Image: bd-l.jpg]](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg)
![[Image: wv-l.jpg]](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg)
Level 3 radar
![[Image: ktlh_br248.png]](http://www.hardcoreweather.com/radar/ktlh_br248.png)
Models
![[Image: at200806_model.gif]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif){kind=icon}
![[Image: storm_06.gif]](http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif)
TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 08:06 AM
680
Whxx01 Kwbc 101254
Chghur
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1254 Utc Sun Aug 10 2008
Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.
Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone
And Subtropical Cyclone Information.
Atlantic Objective Aids For
Disturbance Invest (al922008) 20080810 1200 Utc
...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
080810 1200 080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000
Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 10.5n 43.0w 11.5n 44.3w 12.3n 45.8w 12.9n 47.3w
Bamd 10.5n 43.0w 11.1n 45.0w 11.6n 47.0w 12.0n 48.9w
Bamm 10.5n 43.0w 11.1n 44.9w 11.8n 46.6w 12.4n 48.0w
Lbar 10.5n 43.0w 10.9n 45.6w 11.6n 48.2w 12.3n 50.9w
Ship 25kts 30kts 36kts 45kts
Dshp 25kts 30kts 36kts 45kts
...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
080812 1200 080813 1200 080814 1200 080815 1200
Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 13.6n 49.6w 16.0n 55.0w 18.8n 61.6w 21.2n 68.2w
Bamd 12.5n 50.9w 14.5n 55.6w 16.2n 61.0w 17.2n 66.8w
Bamm 13.0n 49.9w 14.9n 54.8w 16.7n 60.4w 17.8n 66.5w
Lbar 13.1n 53.6w 15.1n 58.6w 17.1n 63.8w 19.3n 68.7w
Ship 55kts 71kts 81kts 84kts
Dshp 55kts 71kts 81kts 84kts
...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 10.5n Loncur = 43.0w Dircur = 270deg Spdcur = 16kt
Latm12 = 10.5n Lonm12 = 39.7w Dirm12 = 270deg Spdm12 = 16kt
Latm24 = 10.5n Lonm24 = 36.4w
Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 0nm Wndm12 = 25kt
Cenprs = 1009mb Outprs = 1011mb Outrad = 150nm Sdepth = M
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm
$$
Nnnn
![[Image: at200892_model.gif]](http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif){kind=icon}
TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 08:08 AM
Tropical Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 Am Edt Sun Aug 10 2008
Based On 0600 Utc Surface Analysis And Satellite Imagery Through
1015 Utc.
...special Features...
The Tropical Wave Along 41w S Of 19n Is Moving W Near 15 Kt. Ir
Satellite Imagery Exhibits A Cyclonic Turning Observed Along The
Wave Axis Near 11n. An Earlier Scatterometer Pass At 0840z
Confirms Position Of The Wave Along With A Possible Closed Low
Circulation Forming Along The Wave Axis. Convective Activity
Associated With This Wave Remains Disorganized With Scattered
Moderate Convection West Of The Wave Axis From 9n-13n Between
42w-45w. Upper Level Environmental Winds Are Expected To Become
More Favorable For Development Of This System During The Next
Couple Of Days.
TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 09:26 AM
Houston-Galveston AFD Excerpt:
LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.
TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 10:58 AM
![[Image: pagegz8.gif]](https://img368.imageshack.us/img368/1430/pagegz8.gif)
TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 11:04 AM
![[Image: intensity_early1.png]](http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png)
TD Fay main thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2008 11:28 AM
![[Image: atl_ir1_loop.gif]](http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/invest_09/IR/atl_ir1_loop.gif)
TD Fay main thread - weatherguyaustin - 08-10-2008 11:34 AM
Should be a depression or ts, by 5pm.
TD Fay main thread - weatherguyaustin - 08-10-2008 11:43 AM
That is showing a different system developing, but still scary.
TD Fay main thread - vampgrrl - 08-10-2008 11:44 AM
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Is that different or the same Invest?