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Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - Printable Version

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Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - LSU TIGERS - 10-19-2008 07:28 PM

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

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Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - LSU TIGERS - 10-19-2008 07:30 PM

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Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2008 08:18 PM

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Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2008 06:51 AM

000
abnt20 knhc 201138
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt mon oct 20 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located over the
northwestern caribbean sea is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are rising and development...if
any...will be slow to occur. Locally heavy rains will likely
continue over portions of honduras...guatemala...belize...and the
yucatan peninsula over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

forecaster avila


Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - ChessieStorm - 10-20-2008 08:57 AM

I hope this thing develops into something that comes near me. We need rain badly here. We're running near 10 inches below normal since the end of August and those who don't or can't water their lawns, the grass is dead.

So we need the rain...keeping fingers crossed.


Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - LSU TIGERS - 10-20-2008 09:31 AM

ChessieStorm Wrote:I hope this thing develops into something that comes near me. We need rain badly here. We're running near 10 inches below normal since the end of August and those who don't or can't water their lawns, the grass is dead.

So we need the rain...keeping fingers crossed.

Hate to break it to you, but your local forecast can be found below:

[Image: atl_wv1_loop.gif]


Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - Alex - 10-20-2008 10:07 AM

From Jeff Masters' blog:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure (91L) continues to fester off the coast of Belize in the Western Caribbean Sea. This morning's QuickSCAT pass revealed no surface circulation, although some rotation at higher levels of the atmosphere is apparent on satellite loops. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance increased some in the past few hours, spreading over the Cayman Islands. However pressures are not falling at present over the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is a high 20 knots.

The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days, which should allow some slow development of the disturbance. Steering currents are weak, and a slow movement west to a point near the Belize coast is possible today through Tuesday. Heavy rains will affect Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Wednesday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida on Friday or Saturday. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and I doubt 91L would be able to intensify into a hurricane in the face of that kind of shear. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFDL model develops 91L into a tropical storm that hits Florida near Sarasota Friday morning with 50 mph winds. The 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model is slower, predicting a landfall near Tampa on Saturday morning. However, this landfall may occur as a weaker subtropical storm or extratropical storm, as predicted by the latest phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State. The other reliable models do not develop 91L. NHC is giving 91L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - ChessieStorm - 10-20-2008 11:50 AM

LSU TIGERS Wrote:Hate to break it to you, but your local forecast can be found below:

[Image: atl_wv1_loop.gif]


I know...that's why I hope


Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2008 12:58 PM

Abnt20 knhc 201733
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt mon oct 20 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located over the gulf of
honduras is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a
large portion of the northwestern caribbean sea. Surface pressures
are rising and development...if any...will be slow to occur.
Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of honduras...
Guatemala...belize...and the yucatan peninsula during the next
couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

forecaster blake


Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat. - winter123 - 10-20-2008 03:21 PM

disorganized? no way. There's a well defined COC near the nicaragua coast. This is TD 16 all over again (its the same disturbance, it should be named TD16) probably by 11pm.)

Also whats that off the NJ coast? 0_0