Quote:
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY.

Quote: Tropics have become a little more active. A depression is churning in
the Atlantic where it is forecast to stay, and it is forecast to gain
some strength so it could become Jerry later today. An area of
disturbed weather in the Central Caribbean is forecast to develop little
as it moves generally northwestward for the next couple of days. It
could become a tropical storm after that as conditions become more
favorable for development, and it could become Karen. What little
guidance there is suggests it coming up toward South Florida

Quote: .LONG TERM...
LATE IN THE WEEK THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND A POSSIBLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AGAIN AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL THE
MAJOR MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AROUND THE SAME
TIME. WITH WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUED WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF FRONT...THIS COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF FALL
COMING UP THIS WEEKEND.