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Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 09:40 AM

Oh yeah, no doubt about it, even Davis Island would be under water and Tampa General would be sitting several feet under water when that happens.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 09:44 AM

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 16.5 north... longitude 80.6 west or about 195
miles... 320 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 200
miles... 325 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.

Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr... and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma is expected to become a major hurricane
during the next day or two.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 120 miles...195 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb...28.85 inches.


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-18-2005 09:54 AM

katiebuglj Wrote:Oh yeah, no doubt about it, even Davis Island would be under water and Tampa General would be sitting several feet under water when that happens.

A Cat5 surge would turn Pinellas into two islands, St. Pete, and the Seminole Ridge. I'd be on the western end of the St. Pete island... It'd run off, it wouldn't hang for weeks, like N.O. but it would still suck bigtime, like Biloxi....


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 10:09 AM

Llarion Wrote:A Cat5 surge would turn Pinellas into two islands, St. Pete, and the Seminole Ridge. I'd be on the western end of the St. Pete island... It'd run off, it wouldn't hang for weeks, like N.O. but it would still suck bigtime, like Biloxi....

And you are in St. Pete..I hope you would be leaving if that were to happen! Just remember - I house hurricane victims - not too far from you - the wife and daughter and you are always welcomed in Polk County if you needed to leave for a storm!


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 10:20 AM

Wilma is being upgraded to a hurricane based on subjective Dvorak
classifications of t4.0 from all agencies...and objective T numbers
from UW/CIMSS of t4.5 since 09z. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to be in the system this afternoon. Cold convection is
being maintained over the center...and strong upper-level outflow
channels continue to the northeast and southwest of the center.
Oceanic heat content ahead of Wilma is high. The only inhibiting
factor is the dry air mass in the Gulf and extreme northwestern
Caribbean...but the large and growing circulation of Wilma should
be able to keep much of this air from reaching the core. A high
likelihood of rapid strengthening is indicated by the SHIPS rapid
intensification index...and it is likely that Wilma will be a major
hurricane when it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma
accelerates northeastward late in the forecast period...wind shear
is forecast to increase...but there may not be enough of it to
weaken Wilma very quickly. However...it is Worth remembering that
there is little skill in long-range intensity forecasts.
The initial motion is estimated to be 320/5. There has been little
change to the track forecast thinking. The mid- to upper-level low
that had been off the Southern California coast is now moving
northeastward...and as it progresses high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico is expected to weaken...allowing Wilma to move through the
northwestern Caribbean and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in
about three days. Once Wilma moves north of the subtropical ridge
axis and encounters mid-level westerly flow...an acceleration
northeastward is expected. Model guidance has not changed much and
remains in very good agreement...and the official forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory and close to the dynamical model
consensus.
Wilma...the 12th hurricane of the season...ties the record for most
hurricanes in a season set in 1969.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/1500z 16.5n 80.6w 65 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 17.0n 81.2w 75 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 17.7n 82.3w 90 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 18.5n 83.5w 100 kt
48hr VT 20/1200z 19.6n 84.5w 105 kt
72hr VT 21/1200z 22.0n 85.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 22/1200z 24.0n 84.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 23/1200z 28.5n 78.5w 75 kt


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-18-2005 10:36 AM

katiebuglj Wrote:And you are in St. Pete..I hope you would be leaving if that were to happen! Just remember - I house hurricane victims - not too far from you - the wife and daughter and you are always welcomed in Polk County if you needed to leave for a storm!

Thanks!

I have two contingency plans that involve western CNC and central NY, but I appreciate the gesture! I'm in a block house (built post-Donna) in a dense area, well-protected on the south and west from wind (I'm on a corner lot, set way back on the lot, in the lee of two other taller block houses), and in a non-evacuation zone, I have full generator capabilities, and a large foodstore and battery bank every year. The house has full storm shutters everywhere. We're pretty well hunkered down for cat 1-3, but if it were a monster, we'd be out of state... Smile


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 11:37 AM

I expect landfall alot further north than the current NHC track.


Wilma main thread - Hootowl - 10-18-2005 11:53 AM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:I expect landfall alot further north than the current NHC track.

Yuck!!! That has been my gut feeling. How much further north?
Are you thinking that the trough won't be as strong as current thinking or that it won't pick up Wilma quickly? Or will it pull her more northerly? I have been wondering about this all day.

(It's just not me and my family - my mom is in a nursing home and I have to find out what they think they will do if they have to evac.)


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 11:58 AM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:I expect landfall alot further north than the current NHC track.


like exactly how much further North are you thinking....


Wilma main thread - smash - 10-18-2005 12:04 PM

Sorry Sothern Florida - it looks bad for you all. I was really hoping this would fizzle out... or at least stay south.

Someone here said it's looking like it will maintain hurricane status across Florida, and will be going back out in the Atlantic. Being a complete newbie, I can't really understand the water temp maps. Is the Atlantic warm enough to reinforce the storm after crossing land? Or will it likely just decrease to a TD and stay that way?