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Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-18-2005 02:16 PM

sure!

What time do the next models come out i keep seeing the ones from eariler today is it 3 or 6 i cant remember?


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 02:25 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:sure!

What time do the next models come out i keep seeing the ones from eariler today is it 3 or 6 i cant remember?
I'm waiting for the program to import them then the 18Z models will be posted


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-18-2005 02:28 PM

alright i need more help what is 12z 18z etc.???


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-18-2005 02:31 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:alright i need more help what is 12z 18z etc.???
Zulu, or Greenwich Mean time. The US East Coast is Greenwich -5...


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 02:31 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:alright i need more help what is 12z 18z etc.???

12Z is 12:00 UTC time 18Z is 6:00PM UTC time but I subtrack 5 hrs from it to get it my time. Like its 2:30pm my time but its 7:30PM UTC


Wilma main thread - Tireman4 - 10-18-2005 02:31 PM

Thank you sir.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 02:33 PM

Here are the latest model runs as of 18/18Z


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 02:38 PM

Okay, so Rollie gave his input on where he thinks she is going to go - Bamaboy and Brett - where are your predictions...we all want to know since the three of you seemed to of nailed the last storms.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 03:37 PM

Hurricane watches issued for Cuba and Mexico...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del
Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to Cabo
Catoche.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 16.7 north... longitude 81.5 west or about 180 miles...
290 km... south of Grand Cayman.

Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma is expected to become a major hurricane during
the next day or two.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has just made its first pass
through the center of Wilma...finding a minimum central pressure of
970 mb and maximum flight-level winds...so far...of 75 kt. A
dropsonde in the north eyewall reported surface winds of 64 kt.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt. The
advisory intensity of 70 kt is a blend of the satellite and
reconnaissance observations.
There has been no change to the thinking regarding the intensity
forecast. Wilma continues to have very strong upper-level outflow
channels to the northeast and southwest of the center. Oceanic heat
content ahead of Wilma is high...including in the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In the short term...the only inhibiting factor is the
dry air mass in the Gulf and extreme northwestern Caribbean. A high
likelihood of rapid strengthening continues to be indicated by the
SHIPS rapid intensification index. Wilma could be a major hurricane
by this time tomorrow...and reach category four strength before
entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma accelerates
northeastward in the Gulf...wind shear is forecast to increase
slightly...but at this time does not appear to be sufficient to
weaken Wilma very quickly. However...it is Worth remembering that
there is little skill in long-range intensity forecasts.

The initial motion is 290/7. There has also been no change to the
track forecast thinking. The mid- to upper-level low that had been
off the Southern California coast continues northeastward...and as
it progresses high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
weaken...allowing Wilma to move through the northwestern Caribbean
and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about three days. Once
Wilma moves north of the subtropical ridge axis and encounters
mid-level westerly flow...an acceleration northeastward is
expected. Only very modest shifts have occurred with the
tightly-clustered model guidance suite...which...at this time...is
focusing the long-term threat to the southern half of the Florida
Peninsula. The official forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.


Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/2100z 16.7n 81.5w 70 kt
12hr VT 19/0600z 17.3n 82.3w 90 kt
24hr VT 19/1800z 18.2n 83.5w 100 kt
36hr VT 20/0600z 19.1n 84.5w 110 kt
48hr VT 20/1800z 20.2n 85.2w 115 kt
72hr VT 21/1800z 22.5n 85.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 22/1800z 25.0n 82.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 23/1800z 30.5n 75.5w 70 kt


$$


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 04:04 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities and Watches and Warnings as of 5:00PM EST by the NHC