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Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 04:10 PM

katiebuglj Wrote:Okay, so Rollie gave his input on where he thinks she is going to go - Bamaboy and Brett - where are your predictions...we all want to know since the three of you seemed to of nailed the last storms.

Well For now I am sticking to my forecast from yesterday. IF it begans to make the SHARP righhand turn then I will conceed to my forecast and go with the models. But for now Morgan City, LA to P'Cola, Fl maybe a little futher E. The reason for this is the High that is sitting over TX/LA is eroding. This will allow the WNW turn. I expect it to stay on this track until it get past the Isle of Youth. I expect then the trough i.e. Cold front that is now in Cal. to come down and start pulling it to the WNW then N. But it is a matter of timing. Hard to really say 4-5 days out. But I expect a high cat 3 before landfall and a high 2 or low 3 AT landfall. This is my prediction or forecast. but follow what the NHC and your local NWS say for the official information. This is for expermental purposes ONLY.


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-18-2005 04:28 PM

That is one heck of a forecasted turn. I will believe it when I see it.


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-18-2005 04:38 PM

I can draw only three comparisons off the top of my head to Wilma historically trackwise; intensitywise, I can't think of any that entered the GOM in later October as a category 4 (that's what the NHC is predicting, at least what CNN mentioned just now).

Check out the historic track of 1985's Kate, a memorable November landfalling storm in the U.S.:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198511.asp

Hurricane Floyd existed a week before in the month of October to what Wilma is now in 1987:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198707.asp
However with Floyd, some scientists and the like disagree that Floyd was actually a hurricane, and possibly a powerful non-tropical low.

The best comparison exists between Wilma and the 1999 Hurricane Irene, also forming in mid-October and brushing southern Florida:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199909.asp


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-18-2005 05:26 PM

our girls gettin her eye:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html



I bet this is another one of those psycho rapid intensification, i bet we will wake up to a 145 mph cat 4. It wont stay that strong before landfall, i dont think


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-18-2005 05:27 PM

Wilma pressure: 963mb ( I believe now) from the recon'.
---
I guess we are now back to the 'guess the lowest pressure' part of our Hurricane experience.
I'd say 935mb, with a cat'4 at some stage. It would not surprise me though if Cat'5 for 3-6hrs, but that does seem very much against the odds, although a few charts I've seen do have the 'possibility' of it occuring.
---
Calrissian: hmm


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-18-2005 05:29 PM

i'll take a stab at landfall and intensity tomorrow, but for now ima say 100 miles north or south of sarasota, as a weakening CAT III


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 05:38 PM

LI Phil Wrote:i'll take a stab at landfall and intensity tomorrow, but for now ima say 100 miles north or south of sarasota, as a weakening CAT III
I'll say 100miles E or W of P'Cola,Fl as a strong cat 3.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 05:56 PM

Please post all predictions in the other thread . Thanks


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 06:39 PM

URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A Wilma OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER

Winds 100mph


Wilma main thread - sircane - 10-18-2005 06:54 PM

I sure hope you're wrong Alabamaboy. If it does come here I'll bet it weakens at landfall and won't do much more than Hurricane Dennis did.