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Wilma main thread - Brett Adair - 10-18-2005 08:28 PM

Here is a scary comparison....

[Image: WILMAANDMITCH1.jpg]


Wilma main thread - Brett Adair - 10-18-2005 08:30 PM

Major hurricane on the next advisory....Satellite estimates confirm.

18/2345 UTC 16.7N 81.8W T5.5/5.5 WILMA


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-18-2005 08:34 PM

LI Phil Wrote:wilma is going to be BAD news for florida...right now one of my sources is predicting a landfall at 23/06Z...
Meanwhile, in the real world, Wilma is chugging straight toward Belize at a good clip, and, IMO, is going to pound the Yucatan as a cat-4 or -5 before that trough is anywhere near it.


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-18-2005 08:40 PM

I find it amazing that this trough will be that strong to turn or pull Wilma so sharply (right) towards Fla. Can somebody explain how this is gonna happen?


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-18-2005 08:42 PM

Brett Adair Wrote:Well, the latest IR is showing signs that Rita showed in the SE Gulf just before going annular. Explosive convective development around a tightly wrapped center of circulation. I do not believe that EWRC will come during the day tomorrow...it is too small. It will be later on tonight. This thing is still dropping as RECON indicated and they said as they left the system that pressure was still falling rapidly. Wind field expansion is likely later tonight as the areal coverage increases. Cane force winds will extend out beyond 75 miles by tomorrow mid day I believe.
This is an excellent diagnosis.

Unless Wilma gets too close to Honduras (possible) or stalls (unlikely) is somehow sheared (not in the cards for days), she should make at least 145mph as a tiny-eye-cane, a la Iris -- and all bets are off for an annular storm's top end. (I personally believe Mitch bombed out between recon runs, and was the strongest storm the Atlantic has ever seen in records; absolutely nothing else looked as ferocious on satellite; not even Katrina.)


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-18-2005 08:43 PM

mel Wrote:I find it amazing that this trough will be that strong to turn or pull Wilma so sharply (right) towards Fla. Can somebody explain how this is gonna happen?
A battering-ram of 500mb westerly flow.


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-18-2005 08:49 PM

mike18xx Wrote:A battering-ram of 500mb westerly flow.

K...thanks mike


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 08:55 PM

Models shift South again..........Here are the latest model runs as of 19/00Z


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 09:02 PM

hey, maybe it will miss Fl all together - that would be fabulous!


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-18-2005 09:07 PM

katiebuglj Wrote:hey, maybe it will miss Fl all together - that would be fabulous!

I hope so Katie for your sake..but it doesn't look like...maybe it'll just fizzle and drift as a pansy storm to MX...Yeah right..huh!

Good luck Katie! And everybody else in Fla. Listen to what Brett says, leave soon.