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Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 09:17 PM

Storm Chat is back working on audio video room now


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-18-2005 09:26 PM

Brett Adair Wrote:I do not believe that EWRC will come during the day tomorrow...it is too small. It will be later on tonight.
...or this *evening*.

In the last few frames, the tiny eye is bobbing up and down like a yoyo; this is the "marble in a bowl" effect, in which a tiny eye begins to roll around inside of a newly-formed larger eye. The yoyoing is what this appears like as the storm moves west in tandem with the inner-eye orbiting.

What will happen is the inner eyewall will die away into an eddy vortice of low-level clouds, while other vortices also develop (depending on the size of the new, larger, possibly annular, eye structure). When it's complete (around 5am, I suspect), I predict Wilma will then bomb straight down to under 920mb in no time flat.


Wilma main thread - starfish - 10-18-2005 09:32 PM

ouch


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 09:38 PM

...Wilma continues to rapidly strengthen...should become a major
hurricane in a few hours...

at 10 PM CDT...0300z...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Watch southward to Punta gruesa. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Punta gruesa.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 16.8 north...longitude 82.1 west or about
185 miles... 295 km...south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about
405 miles... 650 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 8 mph
...13 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...with Wilma becoming a major hurricane later tonight and
possibly becoming a category four hurricane later on Wednesday.


Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye. Reports from the Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter investigating Wilma between 19z and
23z indicated a 7-8 N mi wide eye...with the central pressure
dropping from 970 mb to 954 mb in 3 hr 14 min. The maximum
flight-level winds measured by the aircraft at 850 mb were 101 kt.
Since that time...satellite imagery shows increased organization...
with a ring of cold tops of -80c to -87c surrounding the eye.
Satellite intensity estimates are 102 kt from TAFB and SAB...and 90
kt from AFWA. Based on this and extrapolation of the last aircraft
data...the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. This may be
conservative.
The initial motion is the 12 hr motion of 285/7...although for the
past several hours the eye has been moving almost due west and
perhaps a little slower. Wilma is south of a mid/upper-level ridge
extending from northern Mexico eastward to southern Florida...and
southeast of a low-level ridge that covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Large-scale models agree that the ridges should weaken during the
next 36-48 hr as an upper-level low centered over northwestern
Arizona moves northeastward and then eastward. The ridges should
collapse completely as a deep layer trough develops over the
eastern United States after 72 hr. This combination should cause
Wilma to move generally northwestward for 48 hr or so...then turn
northward...then recurve into the westerlies after 72 hr. All
model guidance generally agrees on this scenario...although there
is some spread on the exactly where Wilma will recurve between the
left-most GFDN and right-most UKMET. The new forecast track is
adjusted somewhat to the left for the first 48 hr based on the
current position and motion...with the remainder of the forecast
track similar to the previous advisory in agreement with the model
consensus. It should be noted that the models do not completely
agree on how the eastern U. S. Trough will evolve...and these
differences could make a significant difference in what parts of
Florida Wilma will ultimately affect.

The intensity forecast has become more complicated. The current
rapid intensification and favorable environment should bring Wilma
to category four status in the next 24 hr...and it would not be a
surprise to see it reach category five before it bottoms out.
However...SSM/I data shows that the convection with the eyewall
covers a very small area...with a distinct dry moat already present
outside the eyewall. Outside of that is a broken convective band
that aircraft data shows is associated with an outer wind maximum.
Thus...it appears likely that Wilma will go through a concentric
eyewall cycle during the next 24-48 hr...and since the inner eye is
so small there could be notable weakening until the outer eyewall
contracts. Since these cycles are hard to time...the intensity
forecast will hold at 125 kt from 24-48 hr. When Wilma moves into
the Gulf of Mexico...it should encounter slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures and gradually increasing vertical shear. This
should cause a slow weakening...although it is probable that Wilma
will still be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida
Peninsula.
The NOAA g4 jet flew its first synoptic surveillance mission on
Wilma this evening...and it will be interesting to see the impact
on the 00z model runs.
Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/0300z 16.8n 82.1w 95 kt
12hr VT 19/1200z 17.2n 83.1w 110 kt
24hr VT 20/0000z 18.1n 84.2w 125 kt
36hr VT 20/1200z 19.2n 85.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 21/0000z 20.4n 85.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 22/0000z 23.0n 85.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 23/0000z 26.0n 81.0w 90 kt...inland
120hr VT 24/0000z 33.0n 72.0w 75 kt


Wilma main thread - mlfreeman - 10-18-2005 09:41 PM

my sister is getting married in gainesville, fl this weekend. how crappy can I expect the weather to be?


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 10:13 PM

The NOAA g4 jet flew its first synoptic surveillance mission on
Wilma this evening...and it will be interesting to see the impact
on the 00z model runs.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 10:23 PM

Here are the latest positions cone errors and strike probabilities as of 11:00PM EST by the NHC


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 10:44 PM

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif


Wilma main thread - tgenius - 10-18-2005 11:06 PM

I was reading a blog off off Weather Underground.. of particular interest is:

The NOGAPS model shows landfall just south of Sarasota - while the GFS is further south, along the
Florida keys and southern Florida -- and emerging off the coast near Ft. Lauderdale. My first guestimate is to
side with the GFS. And in fact, I might as well best describe the track as the reverse instant replay of Katrina's
track -- coming in over the Everglades, crossing Dade County and ending up off the coast near or just north
of Ft Lauderdale.


If this scenario occured, it would be absolutely wild as the eye for Katrina passed over my neighborhood, so it would be the exact opposite, except this time Wilma would be alot stronger then an 80mph cat1 Sad


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-18-2005 11:20 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif


holy Sh*T. Cat 4 by morning, if not in the next advisory. I told ya it was coming quick!