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Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 09:32 AM

Models shift back to the east

[Image: storm_24.gif]

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 09:48 AM

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 80.0 west or about
220 miles... 355 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
230 miles... 370 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.

Wilma is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph ... 7 km/hr...and a
gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane by tomorrow

the development trend that we have been anticipating for a couple of
days is underway. Deep convection is being maintained very near
and south of the circulation center...with banding features
developing near the center in the southwest quadrant. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were t3.0/45 kt...and a Quikscat
pass at 12z suggests winds are also 40-45 kt. The advisory
intensity is conservatively increased to 40 kt...and I expect
stronger winds when the reconnaissance aircraft arrives early this
afternoon. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable for
continued strengthening and there has been little change to the
official intensity forecast.
Wilma drove southward overnight but a westward component seems to
have returned...and the initial motion is estimated to be 235/4.
Model guidance has been extraordinarily inconsistent from run to
run and there is presently a huge spread in the guidance. What is
most puzzling is that the models that best anticipated the
southward motion overnight...the GFDL and the GFS...are way out
there on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope with a track
over western Cuba and into the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The UKMET...NOGAPS...and ECMWF take Wilma into various parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula. There are important differences in the amount
of mid-level ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico in these
models that is affecting the ability of Wilma to connect with the
westerlies near the end of the forecast period. While it is
tempting to adjust the track to the right based on the recent
changes with the GFS and GFDL models...the fact that the 6z runs of
both models were initialized a bit too far north may mean that they
are too fast with the recurvature scenario. For now...I have made
little change to the official forecast. Clearly...confidence at
the longer ranges is unusually low. While the southward motion
overnight now requires a Tropical Storm Warning for
Honduras...given the uncertainties in track as well as the size of
the cyclonic envelope...it is a little premature to lower the watch
and warning for the Cayman Islands.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/1500z 16.3n 80.0w 40 kt
12hr VT 18/0000z 16.2n 80.6w 50 kt
24hr VT 18/1200z 16.3n 81.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 19/0000z 16.5n 82.6w 70 kt
48hr VT 19/1200z 17.0n 83.7w 80 kt
72hr VT 20/1200z 18.5n 85.5w 90 kt
96hr VT 21/1200z 20.0n 86.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 22/1200z 22.5n 87.5w 95 kt

Wilma main thread - MooreStorm01 - 10-17-2005 10:07 AM

Intensity forecasts seem steep. Thoughts?

Wilma main thread - MooreStorm01 - 10-17-2005 10:08 AM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:Models shift back to the east

[Image: storm_24.gif]

I like the UKMEt model waaay off map to the west...

Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-17-2005 10:47 AM

katie - i wouldnt worry too much about florida yet either. This thing has been back and forth on where they think she will go, and i dont think we have any idea anyway until she gets moving. She was still drifting south as of this morning.

Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-17-2005 11:52 AM

cascred Wrote:I wouldn't go that far. What's to stop her from turning NE after 5 days?

a whole lot of prayers

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 11:52 AM

new model runs

Wilma main thread - mel - 10-17-2005 11:58 AM

Wow....a whole lot uncertainty..

Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-17-2005 12:23 PM

Here are the latest positions as of 11:00AM by the NHC

Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-17-2005 12:40 PM

Looks like tampa may be under the gun