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Wilma main thread - dav3910 - 10-19-2005 12:55 AM

Going to sleep, sadly when I wake up this thing will problay be a Cat 5 with pressure at 880 or lower.


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-19-2005 12:56 AM

Daniel294 Wrote:It needs to start tomorrow, without a doubt. While this will not be a 5 on landfall, the expanding wind field will create a large surge, and there's always the wind (I'm anticipating cat-4 on landfall) and tornados

The eye is only 4 miles wide.

Pressure dropped 69 mb in 7.5 hours. It could still be dropping.


yep, this thing will be charley with the surge, charlie wasnt big enough fast enough to cuase one. This is gonna send the whole gulf of mexico into florida :|


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-19-2005 12:59 AM

dav3910 Wrote:Going to sleep, sadly when I wake up this thing will problay be a Cat 5 with pressure at 880 or lower.
I never thought I would say this, but I wouldn't be surprised.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 01:03 AM

69mb drop in 7.5 hours


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 01:14 AM

URNT14 KNHC 190515
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01186 10809 12467 11716 11051
02184 20811 22446 21616 12053
03182 30812 32438 31515 12059
04180 40814 42419 41816 12058
05178 50816 52397 51717 12063
06176 60817 62369 61616 12073
07173 70817 72328 71818 12052
08171 80818 82279 81919 12062
MF169 M0819 MF162
OBS 01 AT 03:54:00Z
OBS 08 AT 04:27:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01166 10820 13941 11212 28043
02164 20822 23980 21210 30035
03163 30824 33007 31010 31048
04161 40827 43032 41010 32050
05160 50828 53049 50707 32046
06158 60830 63065 60808 29042
07156 70832 73070 70808 32046
MF168 M0819 MF140
OBS 01 AT 04:38:00Z
OBS 07 AT 05:05:00Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF308 0724A Wilma OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-19-2005 01:16 AM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:URNT14 KNHC 190515
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01186 10809 12467 11716 11051
02184 20811 22446 21616 12053
03182 30812 32438 31515 12059
04180 40814 42419 41816 12058
05178 50816 52397 51717 12063
06176 60817 62369 61616 12073
07173 70817 72328 71818 12052
08171 80818 82279 81919 12062
MF169 M0819 MF162
OBS 01 AT 03:54:00Z
OBS 08 AT 04:27:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01166 10820 13941 11212 28043
02164 20822 23980 21210 30035
03163 30824 33007 31010 31048
04161 40827 43032 41010 32050
05160 50828 53049 50707 32046
06158 60830 63065 60808 29042
07156 70832 73070 70808 32046
MF168 M0819 MF140
OBS 01 AT 04:38:00Z
OBS 07 AT 05:05:00Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF308 0724A Wilma OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY
What does that mean?


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-19-2005 01:20 AM

The latest NHC Discussion:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...HRCN Wilma...

THE NAM VERY QUICKLY TRENDS SLOW AND LEFT OF OTHER GUIDANCE. THE
GFS IS LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TPC FCST MOST OF THE PERIOD... AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE UKMET IS FARTHER LEFT THAN THE GFS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SPENDS MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD RIGHT OF THE TPC TRACK BUT IS
THE CLOSEST MODEL TO THE TPC F72 POSN. CANADIAN GLBL RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH TRACKS THAT ARE EXCEPTIONALLY FAST/RIGHT OUTLIERS.
CONSULT LATEST DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FROM TPC FOR THE LATEST
INFO REGARDING HRCN Wilma.

>>

Note the words TRENDS SLOW AND LEFT


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-19-2005 01:23 AM

Daniel294 Wrote:What does that mean?

It means that the expected pressure drop was more than they anticipated and that they had to bail.

>>
The latest supplemental vortex message still hints at an outer wind max, which still points to a looming ERC at some point. The supp vortex message also contained this note:

Edit: Typcially, they can fly at 700 mb without too much of a problem even in really intense storms. Flying at 850mb can get dicey though, when the 850mb height drops to around 1500 feet or less. I take it they weren't expecting that much of a pressure dr<<


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-19-2005 01:24 AM

aaroads Wrote:It means that the expected pressure drop was more than they anticipated and that they had to bail.

>>
The latest supplemental vortex message still hints at an outer wind max, which still points to a looming ERC at some point. The supp vortex message also contained this note:

Edit: Typcially, they can fly at 700 mb without too much of a problem even in really intense storms. Flying at 850mb can get dicey though, when the 850mb height drops to around 1500 feet or less. I take it they weren't expecting that much of a pressure dr<<
So, we won't ever know the bottom pressure of this drop?


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-19-2005 01:39 AM

i think it basically means the world is about to end