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Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-19-2005 04:14 AM

Holy SH*T, this is worth cursing about:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

>>>>
Buh-bye Gilbert, you have been dethroned off your 17 year perch. What did you say Rollie earlier about 200 mph storms becoming a common thing over the coming years. Perhaps you have a believer in me now...


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-19-2005 04:17 AM

The discussion is worth reading too:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190851
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

<snip>


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-19-2005 06:17 AM

OMG !
I go to bed...thinking 'wow 958mb, that storm sure did bomb'. As I fell asleep, one of the thoughts I had was just what would it take for a storm to collapse to 850, 750, and below? Crazy thought of course.

Err. I wake up...and 884, lol. Absolutely stunning development - although not a surprise to 'everyone'. A fair few touted cat'5 for this third 'A' storm.

Have just read through the last few pages of overnight posts, and it truly captures the insanity of the last few hours.

Once again...we're seeing history being made, amazing ! ohh, and good morning all Smile


Wilma main thread - Brett Adair - 10-19-2005 06:34 AM

I'm sorry, but in my discussion last night I predicted something of this proportion and I had to mention it. I knew it would be at least a strong 4 as I woke.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-19-2005 06:51 AM

ha, don't be sorry !
When Rita reached a Cat'5, hey...I touted that we'd have 3 'A' Cat'5 storms. Even I thought I was crazy for saying it. In case you wonder, just a 'sense I had', and to use a London Analogy...things usually come in threes - like Buses.

Whatever happens now, well we can say we've just had a season with 3 cat'5's. That is something truly astounding, and perhaps may never be repeated in our lifetimes again.

Cal: enjoying a historic event.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-19-2005 07:05 AM

pressure at 8 am 882 mb Holy God!!!!!!!


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-19-2005 07:13 AM

882, confirmed, aye.
--
Now here is the somewhat annoying thing. I heard that no more recon airplane until 2pm EST ! You'd think with all the airplanes in this world they'd have one in the storm at all times. A shame.
Its makes me have the little hope that the storm will at least hold or deepen at its lowest when the next plane flys in. It'd be nice to have the lowest point of the storm officially measured.

so, 6 hours until next 'proper reading'. Feels like days.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 07:24 AM

(third attempt at posting this) throw all the models out the window now...until she backs down off 5 status, she'll go whereever she wants to go...frightening scenario to say the least...we now have the strongest recorded hurricane in atlantic basin history (granted, she won't maintain this, but good god) and the models are pretty much useless at this point...i had twice typed a much longer and more in depth post, but i'm getting sick of retyping it...can't wait till cass fixes the bugs tomorrow

[Image: uhaw_2.gif]


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 07:29 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

ok...w.t.f. did that eye just do in the last two-three frames?


Wilma main thread - cascred - 10-19-2005 07:35 AM

LI Phil Wrote:throw all the models out the window now...until she backs down off 5 status, she'll go whereever she wants to go...

No matter how strong she is, she is still a prisoner of the steering currents. She'll go wherever they take her. She is powerful, but she is only the carriage being pulled by her horses.

Bill