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Wilma main thread - mel - 10-19-2005 08:44 AM

When is she gonna start making this turn? Looks like the trough is digging down.


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-19-2005 08:49 AM

Well, cant really be suprised this morning to see the 882. I was up late enough to see it plummet to 892 and figured nothing was stopping it. This seasn has probably set records we will never see again in our lifetime ( at least hopefully not). Since we dont have much to know about hurricanes before like 1880 though, ya never know. There could be periods of "super hurricanes" or something we just plain have missed. Good thing it did this now though is all i have to say, not like a charley and blow up before land.


Wilma main thread - Whiffenpoof - 10-19-2005 09:06 AM

Looking carefully at the last few frames where it loops, could that be a large tornado on the eastern side that shows up for a couple of frames? Or can a hurricane have two eyes for a brief period?


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 09:07 AM

[Image: storm_24.gif].


Wilma main thread - snagdabiskit - 10-19-2005 09:34 AM

And to think, I have friends in Punta Gorda that still have their blue roof courtesy of Charley-- with contractors scheduled for repair in 11/05. Talk about sad irony of that.

I've been making trips back to NOLA to salvage my mom & aunt's property and the two of them are headed there through Friday to pick up medical files and visit their physicians. This is an unreal storm and I certainly hate it for FL, but I am definitely watching the computer models like a hawk for any indications that steering currents change. I can't believe the 24hr pressure drop on this storm.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 09:38 AM

I hope that Jeffery got his HD cam and is ready to film anouther one


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-19-2005 09:45 AM

Rollie - you know he just got his new camera - the one that is super dooper and you can place a bet right now he will have it ready to film.....


Wilma main thread - turbine_mech - 10-19-2005 09:46 AM

who is Jeffery, and where would he be filming at?


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-19-2005 09:50 AM

Jeffie is a former poster - who filmed an awesome video of Charley - he lives in Punta Gorda. He went through Andrew too back in the day. I think his video is still on here from Charley - if you get a chance - take a look at it - he is like 13 years old (kidding 17 I think) anyway, he got all religious and took a break from the boards.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 10:01 AM

the next reconnaissance aircraft will reach Wilma early this
afternoon...but since then there has been little change in the
satellite presentation...although the coldest cloud tops have
warmed a bit. The intensity estimate will be held at 150 kt
pending further reconnaissance data. At this point...the best
estimate for the minimum pressure is a blend of the 881 mb
extrapolated from the aircraft and the 884 mb from an eye drop that
splashed in 23 kt winds. The aircraft reported a distinct outer
wind maximum and microwave data show a formative outer eyewall.
Eyewall replacement cycles will have a strong influence on the
intensity of Wilma over the next couple of days...but these are
impossible to time and are not reflected in the official forecast.
Once Wilma enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper-level
conditions will not be as ideal as they are now and some weakening
is expected...however...it appears that Wilma will still be a
formidable hurricane as it approaches Florida. After that...as
Wilma interacts with a mid-latitude upper-low...the wind field of
Wilma is expected to expand considerably...and even global models
are showing hurricane force winds with the system at 5 days.

Pronounced trochoidal oscillations are being superimposed on a mean
motion of 300/6. There has been little change to the forecast
track through 96 hours. However...recent runs of the GFS and
NOGAPS are suggesting the possibility of a threat to New England.
In this scenario...Wilma becomes captured by a large mid- to
upper-level low forecast to move into the Great Lakes region in
four days. The ECMWF and in particular the UKMET...both older
runs...do not yet indicate this. The five-day official forecast
point has been adjusted to the left and faster than the previous
advisory...but is still much farther offshore of New England than
the GFDL...GFS...and NOGAPS guidance.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/1500z 17.4n 83.2w 150 kt
12hr VT 20/0000z 18.0n 84.0w 150 kt
24hr VT 20/1200z 19.1n 85.1w 150 kt
36hr VT 21/0000z 20.4n 85.9w 145 kt
48hr VT 21/1200z 21.5n 86.2w 135 kt
72hr VT 22/1200z 24.0n 84.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 23/1200z 30.0n 77.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 24/1200z 39.0n 69.0w 80 kt


$$