Hardcore Weather
Wilma main thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Tropical Weather (/forum-10.html)
+--- Thread: Wilma main thread (/thread-3952.html)



Wilma main thread - Mottster - 10-19-2005 10:22 AM

This would be the last thing that New England needs to get involved with.


Wilma main thread - dav3910 - 10-19-2005 10:23 AM

dav3910 Wrote:Going to sleep, sadly when I wake up this thing will problay be a Cat 5 with pressure at 880 or lower.


Haha did I call that one or what. Well kids I think panic mode should begin...umm..say..RIGHT NOW!


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 10:28 AM

a well respected met just sent the the following...this guy is good, so pay strong heed to what he says:

Try to imagine winds of 175mph spinning around a hurricane center that is only 2 miles in diameter. That is what the hurricane hunters encountered earlier this morning on their flight into Hurricane Wilma. They also recorded a central pressure of 882mb (26.05 inches) - the lowest pressure every recorded for a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 11am, Wilma was located halfway between Grand Cayman Island and the northeast coast of Honduras and she was moving slowly to the west northwest in the western Caribbean Sea. Wilma is a Category V hurricane (the third one this season) and the 12th hurricane of this record tying season. She is also the 21st named storm of this season and that ties the record that was established 72 years ago in 1933.
[/FONT]
Wilma still maintains a 'pinhead' sized eye and hurricane force winds only extend outward about 20 miles from the center, i.e., a 'Charley' type of storm. From a meteorological perspective she is awesome to observe, but at this intensity she is capable of total destruction. It is fortunate that the atmosphere cannot support this type of intensity for long periods of time. Wilma will slowly weaken as she continues on a northwest track toward the Yucatan Channel over the next few days. She should pass through the Yucatan Channel Friday morning - still as a major hurricane - and could pass quite close to the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula.

While Wilma is moving toward the Yucatan Channel, a cold front will move south and east from the northern Rocky Mountains and begin to turn Wilma to the northeast toward the southwest Florida coast shortly after she enters the Gulf of Mexico. Wilma should make landfall - perhaps still as a Category III hurricane along the southwest Florida coast late Saturday evening and she will move rapidly northeastward across the peninsula and exit into the Atlantic early Sunday morning. She is expected to maintain hurricane intensity while moving across the state and will probably exit as a strong Category I hurricane. The fast forward speed will mean that wind and weather will rapidly increase and rapidly decline as she moves across the state, and that storm surge at landfall could be in excess of 15 feet.

With impact still days away, the track across Florida is a long way from being firm, however, right now I'd estimate a track from Boca Grande to Vero Beach. While the approaching cold front and upper level trough will be strong, so will Wilma and the hurricane will have some influence on the ability of the trough to push southeastward - especially at this time of year. Upper level westerlies across the northern Gulf should restrict the significant storm impacts to the southern half of the peninsula. Note that the latest forecast (19/15Z) from the NHC has adjusted the track across the state a little more to the northwest of their previous forecast. Hurricane force winds are possible from near Tampa south to the Keys on the west coast and from near Cape Canaveral south to the Keys on the east coast Saturday evening into early Sunday morning - but a more specific definition of the impact area is still a couple of days away.

[FONT=Arial]Wilma seems certain to cross the Florida peninsula this weekend, so monitor the progress of this dangerous storm and start your hurricane preparations checklist now. There is an increasing potential for hurricane force or near hurricane force winds out of the northeast for east central Florida this weekend.



Wilma main thread - mel - 10-19-2005 10:45 AM

Wow..appears to be a done deal for Fla. Max is on TV right now...he seems pretty positve that Fla will get pounded. Hope everybody stays safe.


Wilma main thread - iggie97 - 10-19-2005 10:51 AM

donut tonight...donut tonight.........


Wilma main thread - todd271828 - 10-19-2005 10:51 AM

Good post, Phil. Also note that the wind field has expanded in the latest advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.


Wilma main thread - anthill - 10-19-2005 11:13 AM

Unfortunately Jeffery's video is offline... This might be a good occasion to put it back up? Anyone got a copy lying around they are willing to post?

Don't wait until the weekend... Sad


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-19-2005 11:14 AM

[Image: 20.jpg]


This is much better in comparison to the picture that i gave before.

[Image: hurr-gilbert-19880913-n9rgb.jpg]


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-19-2005 11:15 AM

has anyone else noticed how she is like looping around? i wonder how that will affect the track? look at the NHC satellite loop.


Wilma main thread - trueblue - 10-19-2005 11:33 AM

Can someone please help explain what the colors on this wv loop show? What are the reds, oranges, and various other hues? Where do I look to see the trough? Just trying to learn, so would appreciate any help available.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=PIR&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20050920&endTime=-1&duration=8