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Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 11:59 AM

bobbo4554 Wrote:has anyone else noticed how she is like looping around? i wonder how that will affect the track? look at the NHC satellite loop.


PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.


Wilma main thread - SiStAtWiStA - 10-19-2005 12:00 PM

here we go loopty loo...here we go loopty laa.


Wilma main thread - TIZReporter - 10-19-2005 12:30 PM

Just got this....

Florida prepares for Hurricane Wilma, schools, which are used as Emergency Shelters, could be closing for classes, as they get ready.

A memo has gone out to school principals and staff, in some school districts, reading "...facilities need to clean up and secure their campus in preparation Hurricane Wilma. Superintendent Cox plans to make the decision regarding Friday in the morning, so we plan to let you know as soon as we can. There maybe a need for shelters to start opening on Friday evening. We also need you to cancel all school activities that were scheduled for Friday and Saturday (all extra-curricular activities). We are currently working on a letter for you to send home with your students tomorrow."

James Murray
http://www.theinfozone.net


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 12:56 PM

models


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 12:58 PM

Wilma weakens slightly...

at 2 PM EDT...1800z...the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands. A
hurricane is also in effect for Swan Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from south of Tulum to
Chetumal Mexico.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize from the border
with Mexico southward to Belize City.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 17.5 north... longitude 83.5 west or about 300
miles... 480 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is wobbling around an average motion toward the west-northwest
near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected
during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb...26.58 inches. An
Air Force aircraft will be in the center of Wilma shortly to
provide a direct measure of the central pressure.

Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 83.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure... 900 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-19-2005 01:01 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:models

funny...that yellow line hasn't changed much from yesterday - has it? That is the one that I don't like. I guess it is what is keeping me in that cone.


Wilma main thread - kratzerjd - 10-19-2005 01:01 PM

I predict your all wrong!!!! The storm will hit Mexico and then die. Will not be a player for the US


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 01:14 PM

i've never seen anything like this "loop de loop" she's pulling...also looks like she's heading west of her forecast...make sure to check the box "TROP FCST PTS"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 01:17 PM

someone want to explain TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ?


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 01:20 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:someone want to explain TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/ch3/ch3_2.htm