Hardcore Weather
Wilma main thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Tropical Weather (/forum-10.html)
+--- Thread: Wilma main thread (/thread-3952.html)



Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-19-2005 02:06 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:Guess I been looking at too many models this year. My eyes need a break. Thanks Bob. Thats the same as the UKMET anyways. Still a good model for this year.

How accurate has the LBAR and GFDL been this year LBAR says tampa and GFDL did for awhile. So what do you think about these two models?


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-19-2005 02:08 PM

Models are looking more and more like Cancun might get a walloping, at least the ones on CNN are showing such an potential track. Thoughts on this?


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-19-2005 02:11 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:actually its the A9uk model taking it to the NGOM look closely LBAR still says Pinellas county it hasnt shifted it still makes me and katie right under the eye.

You and Katie have a buffer. I live in St. Pete. Yikes...


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-19-2005 02:11 PM

Another question 'bamaboy. Could some of these different model runs be messed up because she is moving in the loop de loop pattern and not stright? such as the GFDL bouncing her off of mexico? or the UKMET and hitting the NGOM?


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-19-2005 02:20 PM

I just had a conversation with the admin about the boards and I know that many people are super excited during this time of uncertainty, but can we try to step it up a notch and keep this a message board and not run it like a chat room. We have private message capabilities and there is a chat room to use for some of the off-topic type opinions. Please try to consolidate your thoughts into one larger post rather than several one liner or mini posts. Thanks.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 02:21 PM

this is truly an amazing storm...i know the eye is tiny and that is why she appears to be doing the lupDlup, but this is really f'ed up

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=OCT&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=24L.WILMA&PROD=1km_bw&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=ir&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20051019.1845.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.24LWILMA.140kts-893mb-174N-833W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/24L.WILMA/ir/geo/1km_bw&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al242005.05101912.gif&ATCF_NAME=al242005&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PRODUCT=geo&SUB_SUB_PRODUCT=1km_bw&DISPLAY=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Animate


Wilma main thread - iggie97 - 10-19-2005 02:22 PM

likely they are thinking the trof is not as strong and won't get far enough south to pull her n and ne.....i can't say i disagree right now.....yucatan landfall and dissipation


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-19-2005 02:28 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:Another question 'bamaboy. Could some of these different model runs be messed up because she is moving in the loop de loop pattern and not stright? such as the GFDL bouncing her off of mexico? or the UKMET and hitting the NGOM?

Bob
To answer some of your questions the most reliable model this year has been the GFDL and the UKMET with the NOGAPS behind them. The LBAR has not done too well this year. The SHIPS model is for intensity. Now it is speculated that the GFDL got some bad data on the 12Z run. Everyone is waiting on the 18Z run that should be coming within the next hour. The UKMET or the A9UK IMO is the one to take it across the Yucatan. Then into the GOM. I am still not too sure about the righthand batman turn as they are talking about. I have not seen this this far out. Only with Charlie last year and with Dennis who did a lefthand batman turn and came up the Mobile Bay. But right now it's just a wait and see game. But up mine and rollie way DO NOT let your guards down!


Wilma main thread - bayoulj - 10-19-2005 02:46 PM

aaroads Wrote:I just had a conversation with the admin about the boards and I know that many people are super excited during this time of uncertainty, but can we try to step it up a notch and keep this a message board and not run it like a chat room. We have private message capabilities and there is a chat room to use for some of the off-topic type opinions. Please try to consolidate your thoughts into one larger post rather than several one liner or mini posts. Thanks.
I have been watching this board this entire hurricane season , and have recieved great information from it just like it is. Yes it is a message board but unlike a chat room you can run and do something like Work and come back and catch up on what is going on and some times one liners work very well.I think the admin does a great job, and this board needs to stay just like it has !!!


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-19-2005 02:47 PM

Llarion - yeah, Bob and I will be much better off than you on the coast which is why... I hope you are making plans now to leave if you need to.

cone anyone notice how it is smaller now and that it is basically from the tip of South Florida to North of Tampa?? Where as earlier this morning it was like at Tampa and farther South of Florida?? I don't like that I am just shy of the center line. I need to be out of the cone.

weakening no one has answered my question - is there any idea when she is going ot start weakening??

eye very small eye as Phil said but, I don't recall a storm with such a small center before. I know Charley was pretty compact but I Thought his eye was a lot bigger.

aaroads agreement on the chit chatter - I also think Cancun is in for it. They are getting pretty hammered.

bamaboy can't imagine how you could be exhausted - I swear (j/k) I dont' think you or James know how to rest. Hopefully after November 30th you guys can take a nice long vacation. And I agree - anyone on the coast should still be watching her.