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Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-19-2005 03:59 PM

Rollie - I think that is dead on for what he is saying!


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-19-2005 04:03 PM

im suprised it hasnt had higher winds, its a small storm, you would think that with such a low pressure in such a confined space winds would have been higher. 892 with 160 mph? I would think 180 or more.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-19-2005 04:05 PM

soonermeteor Wrote:im suprised it hasnt had higher winds, its a small storm, you would think that with such a low pressure in such a confined space winds would have been higher. 892 with 160 mph? I would think 180 or more.

you sound upset at that


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-19-2005 04:07 PM

LI Phil Wrote:you sound upset at that
I would be upset if the NHC was purposefully underdoing the winds.


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-19-2005 04:10 PM

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005



agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The
06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma
rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low
pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these
models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.
There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z
GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of
the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme
sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the
Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been
moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and
the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma
delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.
The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892
mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and
conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner
5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls...
one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short
term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind
field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to
reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing
possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the
Yucatan...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the
Gulf of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 17.7n 83.7w 140 kt
12hr VT 20/0600z 18.0n 84.6w 135 kt
24hr VT 20/1800z 19.2n 85.6w 145 kt
36hr VT 21/0600z 20.4n 86.2w 145 kt
48hr VT 21/1800z 21.6n 86.3w 120 kt
72hr VT 22/1800z 24.0n 84.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 23/1800z 27.5n 79.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 24/1800z 36.0n 70.0w 65 kt


$$


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-19-2005 04:21 PM

If it did stall...I couldn't imagine the devestation and amount of rainfall that would occur. Any estimates of the amount of rainfall if this did occur?


Wilma main thread - sircane - 10-19-2005 04:24 PM

I've had a hard time believing this moster storm will veer NE all of a sudden. I see it dissipating over the yucatan as more believeable, or continuing NW-ward...


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-19-2005 04:26 PM

SirCane Wrote:I've had a hard time believing this moster storm will veer NE all of a sudden. I see it dissipating over the yucatan as more believeable, or continuing NW-ward...

Well...if memory serves me right..the cold front that will come sweeping down may trigger the NE jerk....so that's definitely in the realms of possibility.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-19-2005 04:39 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 5:00PM EST by the NHC


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-19-2005 04:43 PM

SirCane Wrote:I've had a hard time believing this moster storm will veer NE all of a sudden. I see it dissipating over the yucatan as more believeable, or continuing NW-ward...
I dont beleive it will disapate over the Yucatan but I do beleive that there will be a weakness for it to go thru in the GOM keeping it from doing the batman thingy. And like I have been saying this whole season it's not business as usual with these storms. It's a new thing now and these models you will find in time they will keep getting bad with their tracks. I still say the models will began shifting to the right more and more as time goes on til the weekend.