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Wilma main thread - sircane - 10-19-2005 05:32 PM

So, what is your prediction today, Alabamaboy?


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 05:36 PM

SirCane Wrote:So, what is your prediction today, Alabamaboy?

you can find that in the prediction thread


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2005 06:02 PM

NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005

THE 12Z NAM IS COMPLETE. THE GFS HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.

THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF Wilma FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-19-2005 06:17 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005

THE 12Z NAM IS COMPLETE. THE GFS HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.

THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF Wilma FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

I dont know why they are talking about the 12Z runs and the 18Z are out and almost time for the 00Z runs to come out.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-19-2005 07:23 PM

00Z runs are out.... Looks like the bug that got into the ensemble is worked out...

GFDL is back into SW Florida, GFS shifted further north and the BAM's have yet to come in.


Wilma main thread - Anthysteg - 10-19-2005 07:46 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:I dont beleive it will disapate over the Yucatan but I do beleive that there will be a weakness for it to go thru in the GOM keeping it from doing the batman thingy. And like I have been saying this whole season it's not business as usual with these storms. It's a new thing now and these models you will find in time they will keep getting bad with their tracks. I still say the models will began shifting to the right more and more as time goes on til the weekend.



How is the storm gonna get East past this massive cold front and the strong westerlys?


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-19-2005 07:52 PM

i just seen the new models (http://www.skeetobiteweather.com) and the danger for florida still exists the tracks put it as far north as New Port Richey Florida and as south as key west but the bottom line is all models have converged back on florida for landfall. And also on satellite it looks as if she is moving more NW than WNW


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-19-2005 07:54 PM

I keep reading posts at other places that Wilma is starting to go NW...Is that true? I mean gee wiz...Max was on at 4 PM stating she was WNW and all this uncertainty with Wilma to begin with....and on and on....

So, what's up somebody?


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-19-2005 07:57 PM

mel Wrote:I keep reading posts at other places that Wilma is starting to go NW...Is that true? I mean gee wiz...Max was on at 4 PM stating she was WNW and all this uncertainty with Wilma to begin with....and on and on....

So, what's up somebody?

Mel yes she is starting the northwest movement. The track is looking like it was eariler today before the models got all screwed up. She looks as if though in the last hour the NW movement has certainly begun


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-19-2005 07:58 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:looking like it was eariler today before the models got all screwed up.

Just goes to show you the most reliable computer's screw up..so don't count on them 100%...so at this point, Wilma could really do anything right? I mean are we still concerned about her stalling?