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Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-19-2005 08:01 PM

http://www.freewebs.com/chris48/Weather%20images/WILMA%20MOVEMENT%20PAST%204%20and%20half%20hrs1.jpg

I did a motion over the past several hours, check it out...


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-19-2005 08:04 PM

Well, that confirms she's turning...


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-19-2005 08:42 PM

Chris48 Wrote:http://www.freewebs.com/chris48/Weather%20images/WILMA%20MOVEMENT%20PAST%204%20and%20half%20hrs1.jpg

I did a motion over the past several hours, check it out...
That's not a turn -- it's the marble rolling around inside the soup-bowl.

Check out a 30-frame GOES IR loop.

The track looks like a sine-wave as the inner eye rolls around inside a larger outer structure.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-19-2005 08:54 PM

I feel that seeing that the motion of that was over FIVE hours. That supports atleast an extreme WBW motion to maybe aven a NW motion. possibly a jog. Never the less, that is where the center is. And the "Marbel" i dont feel would deviate that far northward from the center on a West to WNW track.


Wilma main thread - Brett Adair - 10-19-2005 09:06 PM

Well, shit. Models are pushing the trough further north and that is confirmed with the strong upper support now moving into Central KS and moving towards the NE. This could spell really bad news for the entire Gulf Coast. We are not out of the woods folks....


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-19-2005 09:10 PM

Brett... the trough should come down far enough to have SOME impact on this storm. I've said Tampa since a 2 days ago.. Maybe the big bend, or the panhandle... but I don't think places like LA/MS/AL will have to worry much.

Travis


Wilma main thread - HurricaneWilma - 10-19-2005 09:11 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:I dont beleive it will disapate over the Yucatan but I do beleive that there will be a weakness for it to go thru in the GOM keeping it from doing the batman thingy. And like I have been saying this whole season it's not business as usual with these storms. It's a new thing now and these models you will find in time they will keep getting bad with their tracks. I still say the models will began shifting to the right more and more as time goes on til the weekend.


I agree and I think we will see the models make some major changes late tonight into tomorrow morning.

I personally think it will not turn NNW in the next couple hours as predicted. It will continue WNW and gradually turn NW before hitting Cancun or just south it will do some funny stuff right over or near the Yucatan coast for 24 - 48 hours then it will drift NW - NNW slowly eventually accelerate N then NNE over SELA.


Wilma main thread - HurricaneWilma - 10-19-2005 09:27 PM

HoumaLA_WXguy Wrote:Brett... the trough should come down far enough to have SOME impact on this storm. I've said Tampa since a 2 days ago.. Maybe the big bend, or the panhandle... but I don't think places like LA/MS/AL will have to worry much.

Travis


i think the trough will miss the storm. then what? you still rule out LA/Ms/AL when that happens ???


Wilma main thread - kratzerjd - 10-19-2005 09:38 PM

Alabama you can't tell me you are thinking SE LA again? I can't say I want to hear it.... or so far have I seen anything to make me agree with you yet. We shall see but I hope your wrong. Don't know if the CGC can take another storm


Wilma main thread - kratzerjd - 10-19-2005 09:39 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 200235
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$
WWWW


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