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Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-20-2005 01:49 AM

1. Wilma - 2005 - 882 mb
2. Gilbert - 1988 - 888 mb
3. Labor Day - 1935? - 892 mb
4. Rita - 2005 - 897 mb


Wilma main thread - HurricaneWilma - 10-20-2005 01:53 AM

off the top of my head.

Wilma 882mb
Gilbert 1988 888mb
Laborday storm 1935 889mb
Rita 892 i think Katrina 902 something like that. I am missing a few others too.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 02:45 AM

Here are the latest model runs as of 20/06Z


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-20-2005 04:37 AM

So now they are ignoring the Yucatan again and heading back toward Florida. WTF, stupid models, make up ur mind. This is why they need to not revise them so often, gets people thinking one thing one hour then another the next.

>/tipsy alex<


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-20-2005 05:49 AM

aaroads Wrote:WTF, stupid models, make up ur mind.

The people at NHC are only human, and computer's have glitches, which I believe is what happened here. You have to give them credit for all they do, and they often do get things right. Let's stop focusing on the problems with the models and people at NHC. We have a major hurricane on our hands, and it deserves respect. Many people could lose there lives in a few days, and we're complaining about a couple models? Let's focus on the REAL important things: Where it is, where it's going in the NEAR future, and how we can get people evacuated quickly if we need to.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2005 07:07 AM

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 18.3 north...longitude 85.2 west or about 175 miles...
285 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...12 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 145 mph...230
km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles...370 km.

Latest minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 910 mb...26.87 inches.

[Image: storm_24.gif]


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2005 07:11 AM

Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs Md
514 Am Edt Thu Oct 20 2005

Valid 12z Mon Oct 24 2005 - 12z Thu Oct 27 2005


Confidence Remains Extremely Low In The E Thru The Medr. The 00z
Gfs And Ecmwf Have Trended Notably Slower With The Track Of Wilma
Into The Leading Edge Of The Amplifying H5 Trof Over The Ern
Conus...but Nhc Is Obviously Not Buying Into The Trend. Progs
Follow The Official Nhc Forecast Track And Then Extrapolate The
Motion By 12z/25/ The Sys Shud Move Out Of The Forecast Area By
Day 6/wed.

This Nhc Track Presents A Dilemma For The Forecast With The Ern
Trof. None Of The Op Models Abide By The Nhc Track. The Can Glob
Is Considerably Faster While The Other Models Are Considerably
Slower. The 00z Nogaps Was Unavail As Of The Composition Time Of
This Discussion. The Most Similar Scenario To The Nhc Track Is
The 00z Ncep Ens Mean Soln. Therefore...its Soln Weighed In On
The Manual Progs. However...diffs In The Nrn Stream Highlighted
Below Do Not Allow It To Be The Preferred Soln Overall.

The 00z Gfs Appears To Become A Significant Outlier When It
Intensifies The H5 Shrtwv Sys Dropping Into The Backside Of The H5
Ern Trof On Day 4/mon...allowing For A More Elongated H5 Trof Over
The Ern Conus By Day 5/tues Than The Other 00z Op Models. The 00z
Ncep Ens Mean Bought Into This Scenario Somewhat The Second Half
Of The Pd...but The Mean Shows A Considerable Amt Of Spread. D+8
Mean Shows Pos Anomaly Over Hudson Bay. This Scenario Is More
Similar To The Ecmwf Than The Gfs Soln. Considering This And The
Better Agreement In The Nrn Stream With The Other Op
Models...prefer The 00z Ecmwf In The Nrn Stream. The Overall E
Coast Soln Is A Blend Of The Ecmwf And Ncep Ens Mean Due To
Concessions For The Official Nhc Forecast For Wilma.

In The W...the 00z Ncep Ens Mean Is Faster Than Any Of The 00z Op
Models To Lwr Hts In The Nw By Day 4/mon. Despite The Trend In
The Shrt Range For A Faster Moving Trof...feel The 00z Ncep Ens
Mean Is Too Fast Compared To The Rest Of The Guidance. With The
00z Ecmwf Preferred In The Nrn Stream Over Ern Na...think Its Soln
Seems Reasonable Here As Well.

Clark


Wilma main thread - mel - 10-20-2005 07:50 AM

Does anyone favor Wilma's turn today?


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 07:56 AM

she doesn't look to have ANY northward movement right now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

and that is either very good or very bad


Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-20-2005 08:02 AM

I just dont see her turning untill after she exit's mexico tomorrow.