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Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-20-2005 08:06 AM

I am sorry but i keep running the national radar hoping to see the front get strong enough to really move our girl and i just dont see it.
Not to mention the florida never has front drop down as low as they have it untill january.
I am so lost on this.

Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-20-2005 08:11 AM

GingerJess Wrote:Thank you so much... oh, and whoever said the thing with the A's in the names and "things happen in threes"
I yt6hink you are totally correct... as I explained to m,y best friend today... thank you again!!!!! Smile (hope wilma doesn't cause too much trouble :-\

That was me.
I'm a devout scientist on these matters, however.... once Rita appeared last month....I thought 'damn, its going to be a 3 Cat'5 season 'A'cane scenario. An utterly stupid and arrogant thought to have stated of course, since when would we would 3 cat'5's in the same year?

Yet we did.
As for Wilma...interesting aspects...

1. Will Wilma indeed reintensify to a cat'5 - something that not even Katrina or Rita did? (I don't have a clue as to if other recorded storms have been measured to have done this)

2. Will it make this amazing 'cut to the hard left !' turn that so many expect? If it does, it will indeed help to calm the nervous forecasters who must indeed be lacking confidence right now. For Mr Average TV viewer, seeing this storm make a hard right would also be a somewhat 'huh, why did it do that?' moment.

3. Wilma is testament that the storm season does not just 'fade away' in October. The sea temps are plenty warm enough. TS Gamma, by mid-december I still hold to.

*finally, just a note to you all. I love reading all your comments/theories/random thoughts, its highly entertaining, and thats not to dismiss the 'nastiness' that these storms can wreck on the people and the local environment. Wishing all those in the area well.

Calrissian: time for lunch

Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 08:22 AM

talk about a "right hook"...here's accuwx's take on her future movement

[Image: uhaw_2.gif]

Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 08:24 AM

doesn't look like the right hook takes affect till sometime late Friday into Saturday or am I looking at that wrong?

Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-20-2005 08:31 AM

katiebuglj Wrote:doesn't look like the right hook takes affect till sometime late Friday into Saturday or am I looking at that wrong?

No thats what you are seeing BUT it also has her going north west now and that is so not happening.

Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 08:35 AM

TallahasseeLassie Wrote:No thats what you are seeing BUT it also has her going north west now and that is so not happening.

oy vey. Someone just send me an email after she makes the turn and let me know where is coming in at .... I think I am officially over hurricane season. Mentally can't take it anymore. I worried so much with Katrina and Rita that..I just can't worry anymore. I am worried out.

Wilma main thread - sircane - 10-20-2005 09:05 AM

I think Wilma will do what is not expected. Seems to be a lot of uncertainty and that does not bode well.

Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-20-2005 09:09 AM

See that is what i am so afraid of. I just keep thinking what if she comes in north of tampa?

Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 09:34 AM

If she comes in North of Tampa....well, I guess that would be good for me in a way. I would still get her but the worst part would be to my North. I just fear the Tampa hit. Don't know if that is even possible but....I would much rather she come in farther to the South - hell, by passing FL all together but, I don't know if that is even possible.

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2005 09:49 AM

10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 18.4 north... longitude 85.5 west or about 170
miles... 275 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 260 miles...415 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb...27.02 inches.
Wilma continues on its west-northwest heading...295/6...which
remains a little to the left of the short term guidance. For this
reason...the Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the
Yucatan Peninsula. Raob data in Florida and Texas suggest that
ridging in the Gulf is weakening and it is still expected that
Wilma will begin to turn to the northwest over the next 12 to 24
hours. Data from the NOAA gulfstream jet are being ingested into
the 12z models and we will soon see what impact these data have on
the track guidance. The basic synoptic scenario is unchanged.
Ridging in the Gulf is expected to continue to weaken slowly over
the next couple of days...with Wilma accelerating northeastward
late in the forecast period as short-wave energy digs southward
around the back side of a large low-pressure system over the
northeastern United States. The most significant change to the
model guidance is a generally slower recurvature and acceleration.
As far as the Florida threat is concerned...the main focus of the
threat remains from central Florida southward through the
Keys...and it is still too early to narrow that down any further.
Satellite imagery indicates that the inner eyewall continues to
weaken...and earlier reconnaissance data show that the hurricane's
highest winds already are associated with the outer eyewall.
Although some additional weakening may occur this afternoon...
re-strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours as the eyewall
replacement cycle progresses...and Wilma could regain category five
status before it reaches the Yucatan. Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/1500z 18.4n 85.5w 125 kt
12hr VT 21/0000z 19.1n 86.2w 130 kt
24hr VT 21/1200z 20.3n 86.9w 140 kt
36hr VT 22/0000z 21.2n 87.0w 130 kt
48hr VT 22/1200z 22.0n 86.2w 120 kt
72hr VT 23/1200z 24.0n 84.0w 105 kt
96hr VT 24/1200z 28.5n 78.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 25/1200z 40.0n 68.0w 60 kt