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Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 09:57 AM

hmmm...not much change from previous runs...i still say the path will be north of the official track

[Image: at200524_5day.gif]
[Image: at200524_model.gif]


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-20-2005 10:00 AM

hmm, Wilma sure looks impressive in terms of structure in the 14.15UT water vapour frame. Dare I say it will strengthen later today, once that weird little eye has sorted itself out.
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Hope they get some recon' in there today, or maybe they already have?

Calrissian: Windswept


Wilma main thread - sircane - 10-20-2005 10:07 AM

Are we safe up here on the Northern Gulf? Just curious.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-20-2005 10:17 AM

SirCane Wrote:Are we safe up here on the Northern Gulf? Just curious.

well, its a numbers game if I might say. Probability is a very clear cut thing, but human perception of probabilistic outcomes frankly...sucks.
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I could say that those in Alabama are 95% 'safe', but then thats still a 1 in 20 chance of the forecast being wrong and them getting hit. Those are pretty good odds were you playing a roulette.

All the many years of experience, the vast array of number crunching super computers around the world tell us Wilma will cut hard right soon enough and hit somewhere around southern Florida. Yet the the problem remains our 'data set' is weak. We have at best a few decades of data from storms - which is very limited really. Someone on this board noted about there might have been 'super storms' in the past, and clearly we lack the data to predict how these larger cat'5 storms behave.

So, despite so many of the models all suggesting a relatively similar track, nothing is 'certain'. Naturally, to Mr. Average this does not make the NHC and other weather services look impressive.

Damn, its a tough time to be a professional meteorologist right now, but it must also be one hell of a job.

Calrissian: the onlooker


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-20-2005 10:18 AM

000
WTNT44 KNHC 201500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT
WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.4N 85.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W 130 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W 140 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT


so from Tampa Bay south is still in the crosshairs.


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-20-2005 10:18 AM

SirCane Wrote:Are we safe up here on the Northern Gulf? Just curious.

I would say most definitely


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-20-2005 10:27 AM

katiebuglj Wrote:If she comes in North of Tampa....well, I guess that would be good for me in a way. I would still get her but the worst part would be to my North. I just fear the Tampa hit. Don't know if that is even possible but....I would much rather she come in farther to the South - hell, by passing FL all together but, I don't know if that is even possible.

We Pinellas folk would hate that.

If it's gotta hit FL, south of Naples in the 'Glades is the best case scenario, at least it'll spin down a little before Miami....


Wilma main thread - tgenius - 10-20-2005 10:36 AM

Llarion Wrote:We Pinellas folk would hate that.

If it's gotta hit FL, south of Naples in the 'Glades is the best case scenario, at least it'll spin down a little before Miami....

I disagree.. living in miami.. the Everglades is almost all swamp.. it won't loose alot of punch before it would get to miami. It is looking very eerily to do the exact opposite of what Katrina did going through Miami... which would be pretty crazy in and of itself!


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 10:39 AM

tgenius Wrote:I disagree.. living in miami.. the Everglades is almost all swamp.. it won't loose alot of punch before it would get to miami. It is looking very eerily to do the exact opposite of what Katrina did going through Miami... which would be pretty crazy in and of itself!

that is true, Katrina didn't seem to weaken when she crossed over South Florida and they said it was because she went over the swamp land. Even though it isn't as populated in that area (with exception of the East Coast) it still wouldn't be goodfor those of you over on that side.


Wilma main thread - mom2grls72 - 10-20-2005 11:03 AM

Hurricane enthusiast here..no expert by any means, but I was wondering what you all thought of these last three major storms in how they formed so quickly and became so powerful so fast and how they look with regard to other storms in previous years, and this new talk about "created" storms? Katrina, Rita and Wilma..all three have shown to form quickly and became extremely powerful very fast and the eye looks weird. Anyone care to chime in on this?